Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps, 37408-37548 [2011-14557]
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Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 430
[Docket Number EERE–2011–BT–STD–
0011]
RIN 1904–AC06
Energy Conservation Program: Energy
Conservation Standards for
Residential Furnaces and Residential
Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Direct final rule.
AGENCY:
The Energy Policy and
Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as
amended, prescribes energy
conservation standards for various
consumer products and certain
commercial and industrial equipment,
including residential furnaces and
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps. EPCA also requires the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) to
determine whether more-stringent,
amended standards for these products
would be technologically feasible and
economically justified, and would save
a significant amount of energy. In this
direct final rule, DOE adopts amended
energy conservation standards for
residential furnaces and for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
A notice of proposed rulemaking that
proposes identical energy efficiency
standards is published elsewhere in this
issue of the Federal Register. If DOE
receives adverse comment and
determines that such comment may
provide a reasonable basis for
withdrawing the direct final rule, this
final rule will be withdrawn, and DOE
will proceed with the proposed rule.
DATES: The direct final rule is effective
on October 25, 2011 unless adverse
comment is received by October 17,
2011. If adverse comments are received
that DOE determines may provide a
reasonable basis for withdrawal of the
direct final rule, a timely withdrawal of
this rule will be published in the
Federal Register. If no such adverse
comments are received, compliance
with the standards in this final rule will
be required on May 1, 2013 for nonweatherized gas furnaces, mobile home
gas furnaces, and non-weatherized oil
furnaces; and January 1, 2015 for
weatherized gas furnaces and all central
air conditioner and heat pump product
classes.
ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted
must identify the direct final rule for
Energy Conservation Standards for
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SUMMARY:
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Residential Furnaces, Central Air
Conditioners, and Heat Pumps, and
provide the docket number EERE–2011–
BT–STD–0011 and/or regulatory
information number (RIN) 1904–AC06.
Comments may be submitted using any
of the following methods:
1. Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the
instructions for submitting comments.
2. E-mail: ResFurnaceAC-2011-Std0011@ee.doe.gov. Include Docket
Numbers EERE–2011–BT–STD–0011
and/or RIN number 1904–AC06 in the
subject line of the message.
3. Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S.
Department of Energy, Building
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE–2J,
1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121. If
possible, please submit all items on a
CD, in which case it is not necessary to
include printed copies.
4. Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda
Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy,
Building Technologies Program, 950
L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite 600,
Washington, DC 20024. Telephone:
(202) 586–2945. If possible, please
submit all items on a CD, in which case
it is not necessary to include printed
copies.
No telefacsimilies will be accepted.
For detailed instructions on submitting
comments and additional information
on the rulemaking process, see section
VII of this document (Public
Participation).
Docket: The docket is available for
review at https://www.regulations.gov,
including Federal Register notices,
framework documents, public meeting
attendee lists and transcripts,
comments, and other supporting
documents/materials. All documents in
the docket are listed in the https://
www.regulations.gov index. However,
not all documents listed in the index
may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public
disclosure.
A link to the docket Web page can be
found at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!
docketDetail;dct=FR +PR+++SR+PS;
rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=posted
Date;po=0;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0011.
The https://www.regulations.gov Web
page contains simple instructions on
how to access all documents, including
public comments, in the docket. See
section VII for further information on
how to submit comments through
https://www.regulations.gov.
For further information on how to
submit or review public comments, or
view hard copies of the docket in the
Resource Room, contact Ms. Brenda
Edwards at (202) 586–2945 or by e-mail:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Mr. Mohammed Khan (furnaces) or Mr.
Wesley Anderson (central air
conditioners and heat pumps), U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, Building Technologies
Program, EE–2J, 1000 Independence
Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585–
0121. Telephone: (202) 586–7892 or
(202) 586–7335. E-mail:
Mohammed.Khan@ee.doe.gov or
Wes.Anderson@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Eric Stas or Ms. Jennifer Tiedeman,
U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
the General Counsel, GC–71, 1000
Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–9507 or (202)
287–6111. E-mail:
Eric.Stas@hq.doe.gov or
Jennifer.Tiedeman@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Summary of the Direct Final Rule
A. The Energy Conservation Standard
Levels
B. Benefits and Costs to Consumers
C. Impact on Manufacturers
D. National Benefits
E. Conclusion
II. Introduction
A. Authority
B. Background
1. Current Standards
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Residential Furnaces, Central Air
Conditioners, and Heat Pumps
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
III. General Discussion
A. Combined Rulemaking
B. Consensus Agreement
1. Background
2. Recommendations
a. Regions
b. Standard Levels
c. Compliance Dates
3. Comments on Consensus Agreement
C. Compliance Dates
a. Consensus Agreement Compliance Dates
b. Shift From Peak Season
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode
Compliance Dates
D. Regional Standards
1. Furnace Regions for Analysis
2. Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump
Regions for Analysis
3. Impacts on Market Participants and
Enforcement Issues
a. Impacts on Additional Market
Participants
b. Enforcement Issues
E. Standby Mode and Off Mode
1. Furnaces
a. Standby Mode and Off Mode for
Weatherized Gas and Weatherized OilFired Furnaces
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b. Standby Mode and Off Mode for Electric
Furnaces
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode for Mobile
Home Oil-Fired Furnaces
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
a. Off Mode for Space-Constrained Air
Conditioners and Heat Pumps
F. Test Procedures
1. Furnaces
a. AFUE Test Method Comment Discussion
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
a. Proposed Test Procedure Amendments
G. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
a. Weatherized Gas Furnace Max-Tech
Efficiency Level
b. Space-Constrained Central Air
Conditioner and Heat Pump Max-Tech
Efficiency Levels
H. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
2. Significance of Savings
I. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers and
Consumers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Products
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. General
2. Products Included in this Rulemaking
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
3. Product Classes
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
4. Technologies That Do Not Impact Rated
Efficiency
B. Screening Analysis
1. Furnaces
a. Screened-Out Technology Options
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
4. Technologies Considered
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Cost Assessment Methodology
a. Teardown Analysis
b. Cost Model
c. Manufacturing Production Cost
d. Cost-Efficiency Relationship
e. Manufacturer Markup
f. Shipping Costs
g. Manufacturer Interviews
2. Representative Products
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
3. Efficiency Levels
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
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4. Results
5. Scaling to Additional Capacities
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
6. Heat Pump SEER/HSPF Relationships
7. Standby Mode and Off Mode Analysis
a. Identification and Characterization of
Standby Mode and Off Mode
Components
b. Baseline Model
c. Cost-Power Consumption Results
D. Markup Analysis
E. Energy Use Analysis
1. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
2. Furnaces
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
b. Furnaces
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analyses
1. Product Cost
2. Installation Cost
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
b. Furnaces
3. Annual Energy Consumption
4. Energy Prices
5. Energy Price Projections
6. Maintenance and Repair Costs
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
b. Furnaces
7. Product Lifetime
8. Discount Rates
9. Compliance Date of Amended Standards
10. Base-Case Efficiency Distribution
a. Energy Efficiency
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode Power
11. Inputs to Payback Period Analysis
12. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
Period
G. National Impact Analysis–National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
1. Shipments
a. Impact of Potential Standards on
Shipments
2. Forecasted Efficiency in the Base Case
and Standards Cases
3. Installed Cost per Unit
4. National Energy Savings
5. Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit
6. Benefits From Effects of Standards on
Energy Prices
H. Consumer Subgroup Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
a. Phase 1: Industry Profile
b. Phase 2: Industry Cash Flow Analysis
c. Phase 3: Sub-Group Impact Analysis
2. GRIM Analysis
a. GRIM Key Inputs
b. Markup Scenarios
3. Manufacturer Interviews
a. Consensus Agreement
b. Potential for Significant Changes to
Manufacturing Facilities
c. Increase in Product Repair and Migration
to Alternative Products
d. HFC Phase-Out Legislation
e. Physical Constraints
f. Supply Chain Constraints
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
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L. Environmental Assessment
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and Other
Emissions Impacts
1. Social Cost of Carbon
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in
Past Regulatory Analyses
c. Current Approach and Key Assumptions
2. Valuation of Other Emissions
Reductions
V. Analytical Results
A. Trial Standard Levels
1. TSLs for Energy Efficiency
2. TSLs for Standby Mode and Off Mode
Power
B. Economic Justification and Energy
Savings
1. Economic Impacts on Individual
Consumers
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
b. Consumer Subgroup Analysis
c. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Sub-Groups of Small
Manufacturers
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Impact Analysis
a. Significance of Energy Savings
b. Net Present Value of Consumer Costs
and Benefits
c. Indirect Impacts on Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
Products
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
C. Conclusion
1. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs
Considered for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy
Efficiency
2. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs
Considered for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby
Mode and Off Mode Power
3. Annualized Benefits and Costs of
Standards for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy
Efficiency
4. Annualized Benefits and Costs of
Standards for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby
Mode and Off Mode Power
5. Certification Requirements
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
and 13563
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility
Act
1. Description and Estimated Number of
Small Entities Regulated
2. Description and Estimate of Compliance
Requirements
a. Central Air Conditioning and Heat
Pumps
b. Residential Furnaces
3. Duplication, Overlap, and Conflict With
Other Rules and Regulations
4. Significant Alternatives to the Rule
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act of 1995
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969
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E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 1999
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality
Bulletin for Peer Review
M. Congressional Notification
VII. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Direct Final Rule
A. The Energy Conservation Standard
Levels
Title III, Part B 1 of the Energy Policy
and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA or
the Act), Public Law 94–163 (42 U.S.C.
6291–6309, as codified), established the
Energy Conservation Program for
Consumer Products Other Than
Automobiles. Pursuant to EPCA, any
new or amended energy conservation
standard that DOE prescribes for certain
products, such as the residential
furnaces (furnaces) and residential
central air conditioners and central air
conditioning heat pumps (air
conditioners and heat pumps) 2 that are
the subject of this rulemaking, shall be
designed to ‘‘achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency * * *
which the Secretary determines is
technologically feasible and
economically justified.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(A)) Furthermore, the new or
amended standard must ‘‘result in
significant conservation of energy.’’ (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(B)) In accordance with
these and other statutory provisions
discussed in this notice, DOE adopts
amended energy conservation standards
for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. The standards for
energy efficiency are shown in Table I.1,
and the standards for standby mode and
off mode 3 are shown in Table I.2. These
standards apply to all products listed in
Table I.1 and manufactured in, or
imported into, the United States on or
after May 1, 2013, for non-weatherized
gas and oil-fired furnaces and mobile
home gas furnaces, and on or after
January 1, 2015, for weatherized
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
TABLE I.1—AMENDED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Product class
National standards
Northern Region ** standards
Residential Furnaces *
Non-weatherized gas ..............................................................................
Mobile home gas .....................................................................................
Non-weatherized oil-fired ........................................................................
Weatherized gas .....................................................................................
Mobile home oil-fired ‡‡ ...........................................................................
Weatherized oil-fired ‡‡ ............................................................................
Electric ‡‡ .................................................................................................
Product class
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
80%
80%
83%
81%
75%
78%
78%
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
.................................
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
Southeastern Region ††
standards
National standards
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
90%.
90%.
83%.
81%.
75%.
78%.
78%.
Southwestern Region ‡
standards
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps †
Split-system air conditioners ...........................................
SEER = 13 ........................
SEER = 14 ........................
Split-system heat pumps .................................................
SEER = 14 ........................
HSPF = 8.2 .......................
SEER = 14 ........................
SEER = 14 ........................
HSPF = 8.2 .......................
SEER = 14 ........................
SEER = 14
HSPF = 8.0
SEER = 13
HSPF = 7.7
SEER = 12
SEER = 12
HSPF = 7.4
SEER = 14
HSPF = 8.0
SEER = 13
HSPF = 7.7
SEER = 12
SEER = 12
HSPF = 7.4
Single-package air conditioners ‡‡ ...................................
Single-package heat pumps ............................................
Small-duct, high-velocity systems ...................................
Space-constrained products—air conditioners ‡‡ ............
Space-constrained products—heat pumps ‡‡ ..................
........................
.......................
........................
.......................
........................
........................
.......................
........................
.......................
........................
.......................
........................
........................
.......................
SEER = 14.
EER = 12.2 (for units with
a rated cooling capacity
less than 45,000 Btu/h).
EER = 11.7 (for units with
a rated cooling capacity
equal to or greater than
45,000 Btu/h).
SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.2.
SEER = 14.
EER = 11.0.
SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.0.
SEER = 13.
HSPF = 7.7.
SEER = 12.
SEER = 12.
HSPF = 7.4.
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* AFUE is annual fuel utilization efficiency.
** The Northern region for furnaces contains the following States: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
1 For editorial reasons, upon codification in the
U.S. Code, Part B was redesignated Part A.
2 ‘‘Residential central air conditioner’’ is a
product that provides cooling only. It is often
paired with a separate electric or gas furnace.
‘‘Residential central air conditioning heat pump’’ is
a product that provides both cooling and heating,
with the cooling provided in the same manner as
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a residential central air conditioner and the heating
provided by a heat pump mechanism. In this
document, ‘‘residential central air conditioners and
central air conditioning heat pumps’’ are referred to
collectively as ‘‘central air conditioners and heat
pumps,’’ and separately as ‘‘air conditioners’’
(cooling only) and ‘‘heat pumps’’ (both cooling and
heating), respectively.
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3 In this rule, DOE is changing the nomenclature
for the standby mode and off mode power
consumption metrics for furnaces from those in the
furnace and boiler test procedure final rule
published on October 20, 2010. 75 FR 64621. DOE
is renaming the PSB and POFF metrics as PW,SB and
PW,OFF, respectively. However, the substance of
these metrics remains unchanged.
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† SEER is Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio; EER is Energy Efficiency Ratio; HSPF is Heating Seasonal Performance Factor; and Btu/h is British thermal units per hour.
†† The Southeastern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the following States: Alabama,, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,
Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and
the District of Columbia.
‡ The Southwestern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the States of Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico.
‡‡ DOE is not amending energy conservation standards for these product classes in this rule.
TABLE I.2—AMENDED ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP
STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE*
Standby mode and off
mode standard levels
Product class
Residential Furnaces*
Non-weatherized gas ......................................................................................................................................................
Mobile home gas ............................................................................................................................................................
Non-weatherized oil-fired ................................................................................................................................................
Mobile home oil-fired ......................................................................................................................................................
Electric ............................................................................................................................................................................
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps ††
Product class
Off mode standard levels ††
Split-system air conditioners ...........................................................................................................................................
Split-system heat pumps ................................................................................................................................................
Single-package air conditioners .....................................................................................................................................
Single-package heat pumps ...........................................................................................................................................
Small-duct, high-velocity systems ..................................................................................................................................
Space-constrained air conditioners ................................................................................................................................
Space-constrained heat pumps ......................................................................................................................................
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
30
33
30
33
30
30
33
watts.
watts.
watts.
watts.
watts.
watts.
watts.
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* PW,SB is standby mode electrical power consumption, and PW,OFF is off mode electrical power consumption. For furnaces, DOE is proposing
to change the nomenclature for the standby mode and off mode power consumption metrics for furnaces from those in the furnace and boiler
test procedure final rule published on October 20, 2010. 75 FR 64621. DOE is renaming the PSB and POFF metrics as PW,SB and PW,OFF, respectively. However, the substance of these metrics remains unchanged.
** Standby mode and off mode energy consumption for weatherized gas and oil-fired furnaces is regulated as a part of single-package air conditioners and heat pumps, as discussed in section III.E.1.
†P
W,OFF is off mode electrical power consumption for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
†† DOE is not adopting a separate standby mode standard level for central air conditioners and heat pumps, because standby mode power
consumption for these products is already regulated by SEER and HSPF.
B. Benefits and Costs to Consumers
The projected economic impacts of
the standards in this rule on individual
consumers are generally positive. For
the standards on energy efficiency, the
estimated average life-cycle cost (LCC) 4
savings for consumers are $155 for nonweatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region, $419 for mobile home
gas furnaces in the northern region, and
$15 for non-weatherized oil-fired
furnaces at a national level. (The
standards in this rule on energy
efficiency would have no impact for
consumers of non-weatherized gas
furnaces and mobile home gas furnaces
in the southern region.) The estimated
LCC savings for consumers are $93 and
4 The LCC is the total consumer expense over the
life of a product, consisting of purchase and
installation costs plus operating costs (expenses for
energy use, maintenance, and repair). To compute
the operating costs, DOE discounts future operating
costs to the time of purchase and sums them over
the lifetime of the product.
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$107 for split system air conditioners
(coil only) in the hot-humid and hot-dry
regions,5 respectively; $89 and $101 for
split system air conditioners (blower
coil) in the hot-humid and hot-dry
regions, respectively; $102 and $175 for
split system heat pumps in the hothumid and hot-dry regions,
respectively, and $4 for the rest of the
country; $37 for single package air
conditioners in the entire country; and
$104 for single package heat pumps in
the entire country.6 For small-duct,
5 Throughout this notice, the terms ‘‘hot-humid’’
and ‘‘hot-dry’’ are used interchangeably with the
terms ‘‘southeastern’’ and ‘‘southwestern,’’
respectively, when referring to the two southern
regions for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
6 For single-package air conditioners and singlepackage heat pumps, DOE has analyzed the regional
standards on a national basis because the standard
would be identical in each region. Additionally,
given the low level of shipments of these products,
DOE determined that an analysis of regional
standards would not produce significant differences
in comparison to a single national standard.
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high-velocity systems, no consumers
would be impacted by the standards in
this rule.
For the national standards in this rule
on standby mode and off mode power,
the estimated average LCC savings for
consumers are $2 for non-weatherized
gas furnaces, $0 for mobile home gas
furnaces and electric furnaces, $1 for
non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces, $84
for split system air conditioners (coil
only), $40 for split system air
conditioners (blower coil), $9 for split
system heat pumps, $41 for single
package air conditioners, $9 for single
package heat pumps and $37 for smallduct, high-velocity (SDHV) systems.
C. Impact on Manufacturers
The industry net present value (INPV)
is the sum of the discounted cash flows
to the industry from the base year
through the end of the analysis period
(2010 through 2045). Using a real
discount rate of 8.0 percent, DOE
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estimates that the INPV for
manufacturers of furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps in the
base case (without amended standards)
is $8.50 billion in 2009$. For the
standards in this rule on energy
efficiency, DOE expects that
manufacturers may lose 5.6 to
10.6 percent of their INPV, or
approximately $0.48 billion to $0.90
billion. For the standards in this rule on
standby mode and off mode power, DOE
expects that manufacturers may lose up
to
2.9 percent of their INPV, or
approximately $0.25 billion.
D. National Benefits
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DOE’s analyses indicate that the
standards in this rule for energy
efficiency and standby mode and off
mode power would save a significant
amount of energy—an estimated 3.36 to
4.38 quads of cumulative energy in
2013–2045 for furnaces and in 2015–
2045 for central air conditioners and
heat pumps.7 This amount is comprised
of savings of 3.20 to 4.22 quads for the
standards in this rule on energy
efficiency and 0.16 quads for the
standards in this rule on standby mode
and off mode power. The total amount
is approximately one-fifth of the amount
of total energy used annually by the U.S.
residential sector. In addition, DOE
expects the energy savings from the
standards in this rule to eliminate the
need for approximately 3.80 to 3.92
gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity by
2045.
The cumulative national net present
value (NPV) of total consumer costs and
savings of the standards in this rule for
products shipped in 2013–2045 for
furnaces and in 2015–2045 for central
air conditioners and heat pumps, in
2009$, ranges from $4.30 billion to
$4.58 billion (at a 7-percent discount
rate) to $15.9 billion to $18.7 billion (at
a 3-percent discount rate).8 This NPV is
the estimated total value of future
operating-cost savings during the
analysis period, minus the estimated
increased product costs (including
installation), discounted to 2011.
7 DOE has calculated the energy savings over a
period that begins in the year in which compliance
with the proposed standards would be required (as
described in the text preceding Table I.1) and
continues through 2045. DOE used the same end
year (2045) for both types of products to be
consistent with the end year that it used in
analyzing other standard levels that it considered.
See section IV.G of this notice for further
discussion.
8 DOE uses discount rates of 7 and 3 percent
based on guidance from the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB Circular A–4, section E (Sept. 17,
2003)). See section IV.G of this notice for further
information.
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In addition, the standards in this rule
would have significant environmental
benefits. The energy savings would
result in cumulative greenhouse gas
emission reductions of 113 million to
143 million metric tons (Mt) 9 of carbon
dioxide (CO2) in 2013–2045 for furnaces
and in 2015–2045 for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. During
this period, the standards in this rule
would also result in emissions
reductions of 97 to 124 thousand tons of
nitrogen oxides (NOX) and 0.143 to
0.169 ton of mercury (Hg).10 DOE
estimates the present monetary value of
the total CO2 emissions reductions is
between $0.574 billion and
$11.8 billion, expressed in 2009$ and
discounted to 2011 using a range of
discount rates (see notes to Table I.3).
DOE also estimates the present
monetary value of the NOX emissions
reductions, expressed in 2009$ and
discounted to 2011, is between
$12.7 million and $169 million at a 7percent discount rate, and between
$30.7 million and $403 million at a 3percent discount rate.11
The benefits and costs of the
standards in this rule can also be
expressed in terms of annualized values.
The annualized monetary values are the
sum of: (1) The annualized national
economic value, expressed in 2009$, of
the benefits from operating products
that meet the standards in this rule
(consisting primarily of operating cost
savings from using less energy, minus
increases in equipment purchase costs,
which is another way of representing
consumer NPV), and (2) the monetary
value of the benefits of emission
reductions, including CO2 emission
reductions.12 The value of the CO2
9 A metric ton is equivalent to 1.1 short tons.
Results for NOX and Hg are presented in short tons.
10 DOE calculates emissions reductions relative to
the most recent version of the Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) Reference case forecast. As noted in
section 15.2.4 of TSD chapter 15, this forecast
accounts for regulatory emissions reductions
through 2008, including the Clean Air Interstate
Rule (CAIR, 70 FR 25162 (May 12, 2005)), but not
the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR, 70 FR 28606
(May 18, 2005)). Subsequent regulations, including
the currently proposed CAIR replacement rule, the
Clean Air Transport Rule (75 FR 45210 (Aug. 2,
2010)), do not appear in the forecast.
11 DOE is aware of multiple agency efforts to
determine the appropriate range of values used in
evaluating the potential economic benefits of
reduced Hg emissions. DOE has decided to await
further guidance regarding consistent valuation and
reporting of Hg emissions before it once again
monetizes Hg emissions reductions in its
rulemakings.
12 DOE used a two-step calculation process to
convert the time-series of costs and benefits into
annualized values. First, DOE calculated a present
value in 2011, the year used for discounting the
NPV of total consumer costs and savings, for the
time-series of costs and benefits using discount
rates of three and seven percent for all costs and
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reductions, otherwise known as the
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), is
calculated using a range of values per
metric ton of CO2 developed by a recent
interagency process. The monetary costs
and benefits of cumulative emissions
reductions are reported in 2009$ to
permit comparisons with the other costs
and benefits in the same dollar units.
The derivation of the SCC values is
discussed in further detail in section
IV.M.
Although combining the values of
operating savings and CO2 emission
reductions provides a useful
perspective, two issues should be
considered. First, the national operating
savings are domestic U.S. consumer
monetary savings that occur as a result
of market transactions, whereas the
value of CO2 reductions is based on a
global value. Second, the assessments of
operating cost savings and CO2 savings
are performed with different methods
that use quite different time frames for
analysis. The national operating cost
savings is measured for the lifetime of
products shipped in 2013–2045 for
furnaces and 2015–2045 for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. The SCC
values, on the other hand, reflect the
present value of future climate-related
impacts resulting from the emission of
one metric ton of carbon dioxide in each
year. These impacts continue well
beyond 2100.
Estimates of annualized benefits and
costs of the standards in this rule for
furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump energy efficiency are shown
in Table I.3. The results under the
primary estimate are as follows. Using a
7-percent discount rate for consumer
impacts and the SCC series that has a
value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$),
the cost of the standards in this rule is
$527 million to $773 million per year in
increased equipment costs, while the
annualized benefits are $837 million to
$1106 million per year in reduced
equipment operating costs, $140 million
to $178 million in CO2 reductions, and
$5.3 million to $6.9 million in reduced
NOX emissions. In this case, the net
benefit amounts to $456 million to $517
million per year. DOE also calculated
annualized net benefits using a range of
potential electricity and equipment
price trend forecasts. Given the range of
benefits except for the value of CO2 reductions. For
the latter, DOE used a range of discount rates, as
shown in Table I.3. From the present value, DOE
then calculated the fixed annual payment over a
32-year period, starting in 2011 that yields the same
present value. The fixed annual payment is the
annualized value. Although DOE calculated
annualized values, this does not imply that the
time-series of cost and benefits from which the
annualized values were determined would be a
steady stream of payments.
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modeled price trends, the range of net
benefits in this case is from $295
million to $623 million per year. The
low estimate in Table I.3 corresponds to
a scenario with a low electricity price
trend and a constant real price trend for
equipment, while the high estimate
reflects a high electricity price trend and
a strong declining real price trend for
equipment.
Using a 3-percent discount rate for
consumer impacts and the SCC series
that has a value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in
2009$), the cost of the standards in this
rule is $566 million to $825 million per
year in increased equipment costs,
while the benefits are $1289 million to
$1686 million per year in reduced
operating costs, $140 million to $178
million in CO2 reductions, and $7.9
million to $10.2 million in reduced NOX
emissions. In this case, the net benefit
amounts to $871 million to $1049
million per year. DOE also calculated
annualized net benefits using a range of
potential electricity and equipment
price trend forecasts. Given the range of
modeled price trends, the range of net
benefits in this case is from $601
million to $1,260 million per year. The
low estimate corresponds to a scenario
with a low electricity price trend and a
constant real price trend for equipment,
while the high estimate reflects a high
electricity price trend and a strong
declining real price trend for
equipment.
TABLE I.3—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS OF STANDARDS FOR FURNACE AND CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT
PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY (TSL 4) *
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Discount rate
Primary estimate **
Low estimate **
High estimate **
837 to 1,106 ..........
1,289 to 1,686 .......
34 to 43 .................
140 to 178 .............
224 to 284 .............
427 to 541 .............
5.3 to 6.9 ...............
7.9 to 10.2 .............
876 to 1,653 ..........
983 to 1,290 ..........
1,437 to 1,874 .......
1,330 to 2,237 .......
723 to 959 .............
1,083 to 1,422 .......
34 to 43 .................
141 to 178 .............
225 to 285 .............
428 to 543 .............
5.3 to 7.0 ...............
7.9 to 10.3 .............
762 to 1,509 ..........
869 to 1,144 ..........
1,232 to 1,611 .......
1,125 to 1,975 .......
955 to 1,258.
1,493 to 1,948.
34 to 43.
140 to 178.
224 to 284.
427 to 541.
5.3 to 6.9.
7.9 to 10.2.
994 to 1,805.
1,100 to 1,442.
1,641 to 2,136.
1,535 to 2,499.
527 to 773 .............
566 to 825 .............
574 to 840 .............
630 to 916 .............
555 to 819.
599 to 876.
188
295
601
494
438 to 986.
545 to 623.
1,042 to 1,260.
935 to 1,623.
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings ............................................
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t † ..........................................
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t † ........................................
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t † ........................................
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t † ........................................
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton † .................................
Total †† ................................................................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
5% ...............................
3% ...............................
2.5% ............................
3% ...............................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
7% plus CO2 range .....
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
3% plus CO2 range .....
Costs
Incremental Product Costs .......................................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
Net Benefits/Costs
Total †† ................................................................
7%
7%
3%
3%
plus CO2 range .....
...............................
...............................
plus CO2 range .....
349
456
871
764
to
to
to
to
880 .............
517 .............
1,049 ..........
1,412 ..........
to
to
to
to
669 .............
305 .............
695 .............
1,059 ..........
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013–2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015–2045 for the central air conditioner and heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the Low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects
constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices, and the High estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high
learning rate) for product prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
† The CO values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The val2
2
ues of $4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates, respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount
rate. The value for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
†† Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate, which is
$22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ‘‘7% plus CO2 range’’ and ‘‘3% plus CO2 range,’’ the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
Estimates of annualized benefits and
costs of the standards in this rule for
furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump standby mode and off mode
power are shown in Table I.4. The
results under the primary estimate are
as follows. Using a 7-percent discount
rate and the SCC value of $22.1/ton in
2010 (in 2009$), the cost of the
standards in this rule is $16.4 million
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per year in increased equipment costs,
while the annualized benefits are $46.5
million per year in reduced equipment
operating costs, $12.4 million in CO2
reductions, and $0.4 million in reduced
NOX emissions. In this case, the net
benefit amounts to $42.8 million per
year. Using a 3-percent discount rate
and the SCC value of $22.10/ton in 2010
(in 2009$), the cost of the standards in
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this rule is $19.1 million per year in
increased equipment costs, while the
benefits are $79.3 million per year in
reduced operating costs, $12.4 million
in CO2 reductions, and $0.6 million in
reduced NOX emissions. In this case, the
net benefit amounts to $73.2 million per
year.
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TABLE I.4—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS OF STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT
PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE (TSL 2) *
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Discount rate
Primary estimate **
Low estimate **
High estimate **
46.5 ........................
79.3 ........................
2.9 ..........................
12.4 ........................
19.9 ........................
37.6 ........................
0.4 ..........................
0.6 ..........................
49.7 to 84.5 ...........
59.2 ........................
92.3 ........................
82.8 to 117.5 .........
40.4 ........................
67.9 ........................
2.9 ..........................
12.4 ........................
19.9 ........................
37.6 ........................
0.4 ..........................
0.6 ..........................
43.6 to 78.4 ...........
53.1 ........................
80.9 ........................
71.4 to 106.2 .........
52.8.
90.8.
2.9.
12.4.
19.9.
37.6.
0.4.
0.6.
56.1 to 90.8.
65.5.
103.8.
94.3 to 129.1.
16.4 ........................
19.1 ........................
15.2 ........................
17.6 ........................
17.7.
20.6.
28.5
38.0
63.3
53.8
38.4 to 73.1.
47.9.
83.2.
73.7 to 108.5.
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings ........................................
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t † ......................................
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t † ....................................
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t † ....................................
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t † ....................................
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton † .............................
Total †† ............................................................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
5% ...............................
3% ...............................
2.5% ............................
3% ...............................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
7% plus CO2 range .....
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
3% plus CO2 range .....
Costs
Incremental Product Costs ....................................
7% ...............................
3% ...............................
Net Benefits/Costs
Total †† ............................................................
7%
7%
3%
3%
plus CO2 range .....
...............................
...............................
plus CO2 range .....
33.3
42.8
73.2
63.7
to 68.1 ...........
........................
........................
to 98.4 ...........
to 63.2 ...........
........................
........................
to 88.5 ...........
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013–2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015–2045 for the central air conditioner and heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects
constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices, and the high estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high
learning rate) for product prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
† The CO values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The val2
2
ues of $4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates, respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount
rate. The value for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
†† Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate, which is
$22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ‘‘7% plus CO2 range’’ and ‘‘3% plus CO2 range,’’ the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
E. Conclusion
Based on the analyses culminating in
this rule, DOE has concluded that the
benefits of the standards in this rule
(energy savings, positive NPV of
consumer benefits, consumer LCC
savings, and emission reductions)
would outweigh the burdens (loss of
INPV for manufacturers and LCC
increases for some consumers). DOE has
concluded that the standards in this rule
represent the maximum improvement in
energy efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified, and
would result in the significant
conservation of energy. DOE further
notes that products achieving these
standard levels are already
commercially available for all of the
product classes covered by today’s
proposal.
today’s direct final rule, as well as some
of the relevant historical background
related to the establishment of standards
for residential furnaces and residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
A. Authority
II. Introduction
Title III, Part B of the Energy Policy
and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA or
the Act), Public Law 94–163 (42 U.S.C.
6291–6309, as codified) established the
Energy Conservation Program for
Consumer Products Other Than
Automobiles,13 a program covering most
major household appliances
(collectively referred to as ‘‘covered
products’’), which includes the types of
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps and furnaces that are the
subject of this rulemaking. (42 U.S.C.
6292(a)(3) and (5)) EPCA prescribed
energy conservation standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
The following sections briefly discuss
the statutory authority underlying
13 For editorial reasons, upon codification in the
U.S. Code, Part B was redesignated Part A.
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and directed DOE to conduct two cycles
of rulemakings to determine whether to
amend these standards. (42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(1)–(3)) The statute also
prescribed standards for furnaces,
except for ‘‘small’’ furnaces (i.e., those
units with an input capacity less than
45,000 British thermal units per hour
(Btu/h)), for which EPCA directed DOE
to prescribe standards. (42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(1)-(2)) Finally, EPCA directed
DOE to conduct rulemakings to
determine whether to amend the
standards for furnaces. (42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(A)-(C)) As explained in
further detail in section II.B,
‘‘Background,’’ this rulemaking
represents the second round of
amendments to both the central air
conditioner/heat pump and the furnaces
standards, under the authority of 42
U.S.C. 6295(d)(3)(B) and (f)(4)(C),
respectively.
DOE notes that this rulemaking is one
of the required agency actions in two
court orders. First, pursuant to the
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Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
consolidated Consent Decree in State of
New York, et al. v. Bodman, et al., 05
Civ. 7807 (LAP), and Natural Resources
Defense Council, et al. v. Bodman, et al.,
05 Civ. 7808 (LAP), DOE is required to
complete a final rule for amended
energy conservation standards for
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps that must be sent to the
Federal Register by June 30, 2011.
Second, pursuant to the Voluntary
Remand in State of New York, et al. v.
Department of Energy, et al., 08–0311–
ag(L); 08–0312–ag(con), DOE agreed to
complete a final rule to consider
amendments to the energy conservation
standards for residential furnaces which
it anticipated would be sent to the
Federal Register by May 1, 2011.
DOE further notes that under 42
U.S.C. 6295(m), the agency must
periodically review its already
established energy conservation
standards for a covered product. Under
this requirement, the next review that
DOE would need to conduct must occur
no later than six years from the issuance
of a final rule establishing or amending
a standard for a covered product.
Pursuant to EPCA, DOE’s energy
conservation program for covered
products consists essentially of four
parts: (1) Testing; (2) labeling; (3) the
establishment of Federal energy
conservation standards; and (4)
certification and enforcement
procedures. The Federal Trade
Commission (FTC) is primarily
responsible for labeling, and DOE
implements the remainder of the
program. Subject to certain criteria and
conditions, DOE is required to develop
test procedures to measure the energy
efficiency, energy use, or estimated
annual operating cost of each covered
product. (42 U.S.C. 6293) Manufacturers
of covered products must use the
prescribed DOE test procedure as the
basis for certifying to DOE that their
products comply with the applicable
energy conservation standards adopted
under EPCA and when making
representations to the public regarding
the energy use or efficiency of those
products. (42 U.S.C. 6293(c) and
6295(s)) Similarly, DOE must use these
test procedures to determine whether
the products comply with standards
adopted pursuant to EPCA. Id. The DOE
test procedures for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, and for
furnaces, appear at title 10 of the Code
of Federal Regulations (CFR) part 430,
subpart B, appendices M and N,
respectively.
DOE must follow specific statutory
criteria for prescribing amended
standards for covered products. As
indicated above, any amended standard
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for a covered product must be designed
to achieve the maximum improvement
in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(A)) Furthermore, DOE may
not adopt any standard that would not
result in the significant conservation of
energy. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)) Moreover,
DOE may not prescribe a standard:
(1) For certain products, including both
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, if no test procedure
has been established for the product, or
(2) if DOE determines by rule that the
proposed standard is not
technologically feasible or economically
justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(A)–(B))
In deciding whether a standard is
economically justified, DOE must
determine whether the benefits of the
standard exceed its burdens. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) DOE must make this
determination after receiving comments
on the proposed standard, and by
considering, to the greatest extent
practicable, the following seven factors:
1. The economic impact of the
standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the products subject to the
standard;
2. The savings in operating costs
throughout the estimated average life of
the covered products in the type (or
class) compared to any increase in the
price, initial charges, or maintenance
expenses for the covered products that
are likely to result from the imposition
of the standard;
3. The total projected amount of
energy, or as applicable, water, savings
likely to result directly from the
imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the
performance of the covered products
likely to result from the imposition of
the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of
competition, as determined in writing
by the Attorney General, that is likely to
result from the imposition of the
standard;
6. The need for national energy and
water conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary of
Energy (the Secretary) considers
relevant. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)–
(VII))
The Energy Independence and
Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub.
L. 110–140) amended EPCA, in relevant
part, to grant DOE authority to issue a
final rule (hereinafter referred to as a
‘‘direct final rule’’) establishing an
energy conservation standard on receipt
of a statement submitted jointly by
interested persons that are fairly
representative of relevant points of view
(including representatives of
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37415
manufacturers of covered products,
States, and efficiency advocates), as
determined by the Secretary, that
contains recommendations with respect
to an energy or water conservation
standard that are in accordance with the
provisions of 42 U.S.C. 6295(o). A
notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR)
that proposes an identical energy
efficiency standard must be published
simultaneously with the final rule, and
DOE must provide a public comment
period of at least 110 days on this
proposal. 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4). Not later
than 120 days after issuance of the
direct final rule, if one or more adverse
comments or an alternative joint
recommendation are received relating to
the direct final rule, the Secretary must
determine whether the comments or
alternative recommendation may
provide a reasonable basis for
withdrawal under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o) or
other applicable law. If the Secretary
makes such a determination, DOE must
withdraw the direct final rule and
proceed with the simultaneouslypublished NOPR. DOE must publish in
the Federal Register the reason why the
direct final rule was withdrawn. Id.
The Consent Decree in State of New
York, et al. v. Bodman, et al., described
above, defines a ‘‘final rule’’ to have the
same meaning as in 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4)
and defines ‘‘final action’’ as a final
decision by DOE. As this direct final
rule is issued under authority at 42
U.S.C. 6295(p)(4) and constitutes a final
decision by DOE which becomes legally
effective 120 days after issuance, absent
an adverse comment that leads the
Secretary to withdraw the direct final
rule, DOE asserts that issuance of this
direct final rule on or before the date
required by the court constitutes
compliance with the Consent Decree in
State of New York, et al. v. Bodman, et
al.
EPCA, as codified, also contains what
is known as an ‘‘anti-backsliding’’
provision, which prevents the Secretary
from prescribing any amended standard
that either increases the maximum
allowable energy use or decreases the
minimum required energy efficiency of
a covered product. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(1)) Also, the Secretary may not
prescribe an amended or new standard
if interested persons have established by
a preponderance of the evidence that
the standard is likely to result in the
unavailability in the United States of
any covered product type (or class) of
performance characteristics (including
reliability), features, sizes, capacities,
and volumes that are substantially the
same as those generally available in the
United States. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(4))
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Further, EPCA, as codified,
establishes a rebuttable presumption
that a standard is economically justified
if the Secretary finds that the additional
cost to the consumer of purchasing a
product complying with an energy
conservation standard level will be less
than three times the value of the energy
savings during the first year that the
consumer will receive as a result of the
standard, as calculated under the
applicable test procedure. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii))
Additionally, 42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(1)
specifies requirements when
promulgating a standard for a type or
class of covered product that has two or
more subcategories. DOE must specify a
different standard level than that which
applies generally to such type or class
of products ‘‘for any group of covered
products which have the same function
or intended use, if * * * products
within such group—(A) consume a
different kind of energy from that
consumed by other covered products
within such type (or class); or (B) have
a capacity or other performance-related
feature which other products within
such type (or class) do not have and
such feature justifies a higher or lower
standard’’ than applies or will apply to
the other products within that type or
class. Id. In determining whether a
performance-related feature justifies a
different standard for a group of
products, DOE must ‘‘consider such
factors as the utility to the consumer of
such a feature’’ and other factors DOE
deems appropriate. Id. Any rule
prescribing such a standard must
include an explanation of the basis on
which such higher or lower level was
established. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(2))
Under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(6), which
was added by section 306(a) of the
Energy Independence and Security Act
of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub. L. 110–140),
DOE may consider the establishment of
regional standards for furnaces (except
boilers) and for central air conditioners
and heat pumps. Specifically, in
addition to a base national standard for
a product, DOE may establish for
furnaces a single more-restrictive
regional standard, and for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE may
establish one or two more-restrictive
regional standards. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(6)(B)) The regions must include
only contiguous States (with the
exception of Alaska and Hawaii, which
may be included in regions with which
they are not contiguous), and each State
may be placed in only one region (i.e.,
an entire State cannot simultaneously be
placed in two regions, nor can it be
divided between two regions). (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(6)(C)) Further, DOE can
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establish the additional regional
standards only: (1) Where doing so
would produce significant energy
savings in comparison to a single
national standard, (2) if the regional
standards are economically justified,
and (3) after considering the impact of
these standards on consumers,
manufacturers, and other market
participants, including product
distributors, dealers, contractors, and
installers. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(6)(D))
Federal energy conservation
requirements generally supersede State
laws or regulations concerning energy
conservation testing, labeling, and
standards. (42 U.S.C. 6297(a)–(c)) DOE
may, however, grant waivers of Federal
preemption for particular State laws or
regulations, in accordance with the
procedures and other provisions set
forth under 42 U.S.C. 6297(d).
Finally, pursuant to the amendments
contained in section 310(3) of EISA
2007, any final rule for new or amended
energy conservation standards
promulgated after July 1, 2010 are
required to address standby mode and
off mode energy use. (42 U.S.C.
6295(gg)(3)) Specifically, when DOE
adopts a standard for a covered product
after that date, it must, if justified by the
criteria for adoption of standards under
42 U.S.C. 6295(o), incorporate standby
mode and off mode energy use into the
standard, if feasible, or, if that is not
feasible, adopt a separate standard for
such energy use for that product. (42
U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)(A)–(B)) DOE’s current
energy conservation standards for
furnaces are expressed in terms of
minimum annual fuel utilization
efficiencies (AFUE), and, for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, they are
expressed in terms of minimum
seasonal energy efficiency ratios (SEER)
for the cooling mode and heating
seasonal performance factors (HSPF) for
the heating mode.
DOE’s current test procedures for
furnaces have been updated to address
standby mode and off mode energy use.
75 FR 64621 (Oct. 20, 2010). DOE is in
the process of amending its test
procedures for central air conditioners
and heat pumps to address standby
mode and off mode energy use. 75 FR
31224 (June 2, 2010). In this rulemaking,
DOE is adopting provisions to
comprehensively address such energy
use. In addition, DOE is amending the
test procedure for furnaces and boilers
to specify that furnaces manufactured
on or after May 1, 2013 (i.e., the
compliance date of the standard) will be
required to be tested for standby mode
and off mode energy consumption for
purposes of certifying compliance with
the standard. As noted above, for central
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air conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
is currently in the process of amending
the test procedures. Accordingly, DOE is
including language to specify that off
mode testing does not need to be
performed until the compliance date for
the applicable off mode energy
conservation standards resulting from
this rule.
DOE has also reviewed this regulation
pursuant to Executive Order 13563,
issued on January 18, 2011 (76 FR 3281,
Jan. 21, 2011). EO 13563 is
supplemental to and explicitly reaffirms
the principles, structures, and
definitions governing regulatory review
established in Executive Order 12866.
To the extent permitted by law, agencies
are required by Executive Order 13563
to: (1) Propose or adopt a regulation
only upon a reasoned determination
that its benefits justify its costs
(recognizing that some benefits and
costs are difficult to quantify); (2) tailor
regulations to impose the least burden
on society, consistent with obtaining
regulatory objectives, taking into
account, among other things, and to the
extent practicable, the costs of
cumulative regulations; (3) select, in
choosing among alternative regulatory
approaches, those approaches that
maximize net benefits (including
potential economic, environmental,
public health and safety, and other
advantages; distributive impacts; and
equity); (4) to the extent feasible, specify
performance objectives, rather than
specifying the behavior or manner of
compliance that regulated entities must
adopt; and (5) identify and assess
available alternatives to direct
regulation, including providing
economic incentives to encourage the
desired behavior, such as user fees or
marketable permits, or providing
information upon which choices can be
made by the public.
We emphasize as well that Executive
Order 13563 requires agencies ‘‘to use
the best available techniques to quantify
anticipated present and future benefits
and costs as accurately as possible.’’ In
its guidance, the Office of Information
and Regulatory Affairs has emphasized
that such techniques may include
‘‘identifying changing future
compliance costs that might result from
technological innovation or anticipated
behavioral changes.’’ For the reasons
stated in the preamble, DOE believes
that today’s direct final rule is
consistent with these principles,
including that, to the extent permitted
by law, agencies adopt a regulation only
upon a reasoned determination that its
benefits justify its costs and select, in
choosing among alternative regulatory
approaches, those approaches that
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maximize net benefits. Consistent with
EO 13563, and the range of impacts
analyzed in this rulemaking, the energy
efficiency standard adopted herein by
DOE achieves maximum net benefits.
B. Background
1. Current Standards
a. Furnaces
EPCA established the energy
conservation standards that apply to
most residential furnaces currently
being manufactured, consisting of a
minimum AFUE of 75 percent for
mobile home furnaces and a minimum
AFUE of 78 percent for all other
furnaces, except ‘‘small’’ gas furnaces
(those having an input rate of less than
45,000 Btu per hour), for which DOE
was directed to prescribe a separate
standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(1)–(2);
10 CFR 430.32(e)(1)(i)) The standard for
mobile home furnaces has applied to
products manufactured for sale in the
United States, or imported into the
United States, since September 1, 1990,
and the standard for most other furnaces
has applied to products manufactured
or imported since January 1, 1992. Id.
On November 17, 1989, DOE published
a final rule in the Federal Register
adopting the current standard for
‘‘small’’ gas furnaces, which consists of
a minimum AFUE of 78 percent that has
applied to products manufactured or
imported since January 1, 1992. 54 FR
47916.
Pursuant to EPCA, DOE was required
to conduct further rulemaking to
consider amended energy conservation
standards for furnaces. (42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)) For furnaces manufactured or
imported on or after November 19, 2015,
DOE published a final rule in the
Federal Register on November 19, 2007
(the November 2007 Rule) that revised
these standards for most furnaces, but
left them in place for two product
classes (i.e., mobile home oil-fired
furnaces and weatherized oil-fired
furnaces). 72 FR 65136. This rule
completed the first of the two
rulemakings required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(B)–(C) to consider amending
the standards for furnaces. The energy
conservation standards in the November
2007 Rule consist of a minimum AFUE
level for each of the six classes of
furnaces (10 CFR 430.32(e)(1)(ii)) and
are set forth in Table II.1 below.
TABLE II.1—ENERGY CONSERVATION
STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES
MANUFACTURED ON OR
AFTER NOVEMBER 19, 2015
AFUE
(percent)
Product class
Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces
Weatherized Gas Furnaces ......
Mobile Home Oil-Fired Furnaces .....................................
Non-weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces .....................................
80
81
75
82
TABLE II.1—ENERGY CONSERVATION
STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES
MANUFACTURED ON OR
AFTER NOVEMBER 19, 2015—Continued
AFUE
(percent)
Product class
Weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces
78
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
Congress initially prescribed statutory
standard levels for residential central air
conditioners and heat pumps. (42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(1)–(2)) DOE was required to
subsequently conduct two rounds of
rulemaking to consider amended
standards for these products. (42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)) In a final rule published in
the Federal Register on August 17, 2004
(the August 2004 Rule), DOE prescribed
the current Federal energy conservation
standards for central air conditioners
and heat pumps manufactured or
imported on or after January 23, 2006.
69 FR 50997. This rule completed the
first of the two rulemakings required
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(d)(3)(A) to
consider amending the standards for
these products. The standards consist of
a minimum SEER for each class of air
conditioner and a minimum SEER and
HSPF for each class of heat pump (10
CFR 430.32(c)(2)). These standards are
set forth in Table II.2 below.
TABLE II.2—ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS MANUFACTURED
ON OR AFTER JANUARY 23, 2006
Product class
SEER
Split-System Air Conditioners ..........................................................................................................................................................
Split-System Heat Pumps ................................................................................................................................................................
Single-Package Air Conditioners .....................................................................................................................................................
Single-Package Heat Pumps ...........................................................................................................................................................
Through-the-wall Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps—Split System* .............................................................................................
Though-the-wall Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps—Single Package* ..........................................................................................
Small-Duct, High-Velocity Systems 14 .............................................................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Products—Air Conditioners .............................................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Products—Heat Pumps ...................................................................................................................................
HSPF
13
13
13
13
10.9
10.6
13
12
12
............
7.7
............
7.7
7.1
7.0
7.7
............
7.4
* As defined in 10 CFR 430.2, this product class applies to products manufactured prior to January 23, 2010.
Amendments to EPCA in the National
Appliance Energy Conservation Act of
1987 (NAECA; Pub. L. 100–12)
established EPCA’s original energy
conservation standards for furnaces,
which are still in force, consisting of the
minimum AFUE levels described above
for mobile home furnaces and for all
other furnaces except ‘‘small’’ gas
furnaces. (42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(1)–(2))
Pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(1)(B), in
November 1989, DOE adopted a
mandatory minimum AFUE level for
‘‘small’’ furnaces. 54 FR 47916 (Nov. 17,
1989). DOE was required to conduct two
more cycles of rulemakings to determine
whether to amend all of the standards
for furnaces. (42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(B)–
(C)) As discussed above, the November
2007 Rule completed the first cycle of
required rulemaking to consider
amendment of the standards for
furnaces under 42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(B).
Following DOE’s adoption of the
November 2007 Rule, however, several
14 In 2004 and 2005, DOE’s Office of Hearings and
Appeals (OHA) granted exception relief from the
standards for this class of products, under section
504 of the DOE Organization Act (42 U.S.C. 7194),
to allow three manufacturers to sell such products
so long as they had a SEER no less than 11 and an
HSPF no less than 6.8. See Office of Hearings and
Appeals case numbers TEE–0010 and TEE–0011,
which were filed on May 24, 2004.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Residential Furnaces, Central Air
Conditioners, and Heat Pumps
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a. Furnaces
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parties jointly sued DOE in the United
States Court of Appeals for the Second
Circuit to invalidate the rule. Petition
for Review, State of New York, et al. v.
Department of Energy, et al., Nos. 08–
0311–ag(L); 08–0312–ag(con) (2d Cir.
filed Jan. 17, 2008). The petitioners
asserted that the standards for
residential furnaces promulgated in the
November 2007 Rule did not reflect the
‘‘maximum improvement in energy
efficiency’’ that ‘‘is technologically
feasible and economically justified,’’ as
required under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A).
On April 16, 2009, DOE filed with the
Court a motion for voluntary remand
that the petitioners did not oppose. The
motion did not state that the November
2007 Rule would be vacated, but
indicated that DOE would revisit its
initial conclusions outlined in the
November 2007 Rule in a subsequent
rulemaking action. Motion for Voluntary
Remand, State of New York, et al. v.
Department of Energy, et al., supra. The
Court granted the voluntary remand on
April 21, 2009. State of New York, et al.
v. Department of Energy, et al., supra,
(order granting motion). Under the
remand agreement, DOE anticipated that
it would issue a revised final rule
amending the energy conservation
standards for furnaces by May 1, 2011.15
DOE also agreed that the final rule
would address both regional standards
for furnaces, as well as the effects of
alternate standards on natural gas
prices. Subsequently, the furnaces
rulemaking was combined with the
central air conditioners and heat pumps
rulemaking because of the functional
and analytical interplay of these types of
products (see section III.A for more
details). The petitioners and DOE agreed
that the final rule for furnaces should be
issued on June 30, 2011, to coincide
with the date by which the central air
conditioner and heat pump rulemaking
is required to be issued.
DOE initiated the portion of this
rulemaking that concerns furnaces on
March 11, 2010, by publishing on the
DOE Web site its ‘‘Energy Conservation
Standards for Residential Furnaces
Rulemaking Analysis Plan’’ (furnaces
RAP). (The furnaces RAP is available at:
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/
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15 The
current rulemaking for furnaces is being
conducted pursuant to authority under 42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(C) and (o)(6). DOE notes that the second
round of amended standards rulemaking called for
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(C) applies to both
furnaces and boilers. However, given the relatively
recently prescribed boiler standards under
42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(3), with compliance required for
products manufactured or imported on or after
September 1, 2012, DOE has decided to consider
amended standards for boilers under 42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(C) in a future rulemaking.
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furnaces_nopm_rulemaking_
analysis.html.) The furnaces RAP set
forth the product classes DOE planned
to analyze for purposes of amending the
energy conservation standards for
furnaces, and, as set forth below, the
approach DOE would use to evaluate
such amended standards. DOE also
published a notice of public meeting
(NOPM) announcing the availability of
the RAP and a public meeting to discuss
and receive comments on the subjects in
that document, and requesting written
comment on these subjects. 75 FR 12144
(March 15, 2010) (the March 2010
NOPM). In this notice, DOE stated its
interest in receiving views concerning
other relevant issues that participants
believe would affect energy
conservation standards for furnaces or
that DOE should address.
Id. at 12147–48.
The RAP provided an overview of the
activities DOE planned to undertake in
developing amended energy
conservation standards for furnaces. It
included discussion of: (1) A consensus
agreement 16 that recommended
particular standards for DOE adoption
for furnaces and central air
conditioners/heat pumps; (2) DOE’s
consideration of whether to conduct a
single rulemaking to address standards
either for these two products or for these
products and furnace fans, and (3)
DOE’s intention to develop regional
standards for furnaces. In addition, the
RAP described the analytical framework
that DOE planned to use in any
rulemaking that considered amended
standards for furnaces, including a
detailed description of the methodology,
the analytical tools, the analyses DOE
would perform, and the relationships
among these analyses. DOE also
summarized in detail all of these points
in the March 2010 NOPM, including the
nature and function of the analyses DOE
would perform. Id. at 12146–47. These
analyses are as follows:
• A market and technology
assessment to address the scope of this
rulemaking, identify the potential
classes for furnaces, characterize the
market for this product, and review
techniques and approaches for
improving its efficiency;
16 On January 15, 2010, several interested parties
submitted a joint comment to DOE recommending
adoption of minimum energy conservation
standards for residential central air conditioners,
heat pumps, and furnaces, as well as associated
compliance dates for such standards, which
represents a negotiated agreement among a variety
of interested stakeholders including manufacturers
and environmental and efficiency advocates. The
original agreement (referred to as the ‘‘consensus
agreement’’) was completed on October 13, 2009,
and had 15 signatories. For more information, see
section III.B of this direct final rule.
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• A screening analysis to review
technology options to improve the
efficiency of furnaces, and weigh these
options against DOE’s four prescribed
screening criteria;
• An engineering analysis to estimate
the manufacturer selling prices (MSPs)
associated with more energy-efficient
furnaces;
• An energy use analysis to estimate
the annual energy use of furnaces;
• A markups analysis to convert
estimated MSPs derived from the
engineering analysis to consumer prices;
• A life-cycle cost analysis to
calculate, for individual consumers, the
discounted savings in operating costs
throughout the estimated average life of
the product, compared to any increase
in installed costs likely to result directly
from the imposition of a given standard;
• A payback period (PBP) analysis to
estimate the amount of time it takes
individual consumers to recover the
higher purchase price expense of more
energy-efficient products through lower
operating costs;
• A shipments analysis to estimate
shipments of furnaces over the time
period examined in the analysis, for use
in performing the national impact
analysis (NIA);
• A national impact analysis to assess
the national and regional energy
savings, and the national and regional
net present value of total consumer
costs and savings, expected to result
from specific, potential energy
conservation standards for furnaces;
• A manufacturer impact analysis to
evaluate the effects on manufacturers of
new efficiency standards.
• A utility impact analysis to estimate
specific effects of standards for furnaces
on the utility industry;
• An employment impacts analysis to
assess the indirect impacts of standards
on employment in the national
economy;
• An environmental impact analysis
to quantify and consider the
environmental effects of amended
standards for furnaces; and
• A regulatory impact analysis to
address the potential for non-regulatory
approaches to supplant or augment
standards to improve the efficiency of
furnaces.
The public meeting announced in the
March 2010 NOPM took place on March
31, 2010 at DOE headquarters in
Washington, DC. At this meeting, DOE
presented the methodologies it intends
to use and the analyses it intends to
perform to consider amended energy
conservation standards for furnaces.
Interested parties that participated in
the public meeting discussed a variety
of topics, but focused on the following
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issues: (1) The consensus agreement;
(2) the scope of coverage for the
rulemaking; (3) a combined rulemaking;
(4) regional standards and their
enforcement; (5) test procedure and
rating metrics; (6) product classes;
(7) efficiency levels and representative
products analyzed in the engineering
analysis; (8) installation, repair, and
maintenance costs; and (9) product and
fuel switching. The comments received
since publication of the March 2010
NOPM, including those received at the
March 2010 public meeting, have
contributed to DOE’s resolution of the
issues in this rulemaking. This direct
final rule quotes and/or summarizes
these comments, and responds to all the
issues they raised. (A parenthetical
reference at the end of a quotation or
paraphrase provides the location of the
item in the public record.)
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
As with furnaces, NAECA included
amendments to EPCA that established
EPCA’s original energy conservation
standards for central air conditioners
and heat pumps, consisting of two
minimum SEER levels for air
conditioners and for heat pumps when
operating in the cooling mode and two
minimum HSPF levels for heat pumps
when operating in the heating mode.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(d)(1)–(2)) One of the
SEER levels and one of the HSPF levels
applied to split systems, and the other
SEER and HSPF levels applied to single
package systems. Each ‘‘split system’’
consists of an outdoor unit and an
indoor unit which are ‘‘split’’ from each
other and connected via refrigerant
tubing. The outdoor unit has a
compressor, heat exchanger coil, fan,
and fan motor. The indoor unit has a
heat exchanger coil and a blower fan
unless it resides within a furnace, in
which case the furnace contains the
blower fan for air circulation. In ‘‘single
package systems,’’ all the components
that comprise a split system, including
the air circulation components, are in a
single cabinet that resides outdoors. In
both types of systems, conditioned air is
conveyed to the home via ducts.
EPCA, as amended, also requires DOE
to conduct two cycles of rulemakings to
determine whether to amend the energy
conservation standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. (42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)) Pursuant to 42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)(A), on January 22, 2001, DOE
published a final rule in the Federal
Register that adopted amended
standards for split system air
conditioners and heat pumps and single
package air conditioners and heat
pumps. 66 FR 7170 (the January 2001
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Rule). However, shortly after
publication of the January 2001 Rule,
DOE postponed the effective date of the
rule from February 21, 2001 to April 23,
2001 in response to President Bush’s
Regulatory Review Plan, and in order to
reconsider the amended standards it
contained. 66 FR 8745 (Feb. 2, 2001).
While reviewing the amended
standards, DOE further postponed the
effective date pending the outcome of a
petition submitted by the Air
Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute.
66 FR 20191 (April 20, 2001). DOE
subsequently withdrew the 2001 final
rule and published another final rule
which adopted revisions of these
amended standards, as well as new
amended standards for the product
classes for which the January 2001 Rule
had not prescribed standards. 67 FR
36368 (May 23, 2002) (the May 2002
Rule). The Natural Resources Defense
Council (NRDC), along with other
public interest groups and several State
Attorneys General filed suit in the U.S.
Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit,
challenging DOE’s withdrawal of the
January 2001 final rule and
promulgation of the May 2002 final rule.
On January 13, 2004, the U.S. Court of
Appeals for the Second Circuit
invalidated the May 2002 Rule’s
revisions of the standards adopted in
the January 2001 Rule, because the May
2002 final rule had lower amended
standards than the January 2001 Rule
and, thus, violated 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(1)
(i.e., the ‘‘anti-backsliding clause’’).
Natural Resources Defense Council v.
Abraham, 355 F.3d 179 (2d Cir. 2004).
However, the Court’s decision did not
affect the standards DOE adopted in the
May 2002 Rule for products not covered
by the standards in the January 2001
Rule. To be consistent with the court’s
ruling, DOE published the August 2004
Rule, which established the standards
currently applicable to central air
conditioners and heat pumps. 69 FR
50997 (August 17, 2004). As stated
above, this rule completed the first cycle
of rulemaking for revised standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(d)(3)(A), and these
standards took effect on January 23,
2006. Id.
DOE initiated the current rulemaking
on June 2, 2008, by publishing on its
Web site its ‘‘Rulemaking Framework
for Residential Central Air Conditioners
and Heat Pumps.’’ (A PDF of the
framework document is available at
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/cac_
heatpumps_new_rulemaking.html.)
DOE also published a notice
announcing the availability of the
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framework document and a public
meeting on the document, and
requesting public comment on the
matters raised in the document. 73 FR
32243 (June 6, 2008). The framework
document described the procedural and
analytical approaches that DOE
anticipated using to evaluate energy
conservation standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and
identified various issues to be resolved
in conducting this rulemaking.
DOE held the public meeting on June
12, 2008, in which it: (1) Presented the
contents of the framework document; (2)
described the analyses it planned to
conduct during the rulemaking; (3)
sought comments from interested
parties on these subjects; and (4) in
general, sought to inform interested
parties about, and facilitate their
involvement in, the rulemaking.
Interested parties discussed the
following major issues at the public
meeting: (1) The scope of coverage for
the rulemaking; (2) product classes; (3)
test procedure modifications; (4) effects
on cost and system efficiency of phasing
out certain refrigerants due to climate
and energy legislation such as the
Waxman-Markey bill (H.R. 2454); (5)
regulation of standby mode and off
mode energy consumption; and (6)
regional standards. At the meeting and
during the comment period on the
framework document, DOE received
many comments that helped it identify
and resolve issues pertaining to central
air conditioners and heat pumps
relevant to this rulemaking.
DOE then gathered additional
information and performed preliminary
analyses to help develop potential
energy conservation standards for these
products. This process culminated in
DOE’s announcement of another public
meeting to discuss and receive
comments on the following matters: (1)
The product classes DOE planned to
analyze; (2) the analytical framework,
models, and tools that DOE was using
to evaluate standards; (3) the results of
the preliminary analyses performed by
DOE; and (4) potential standard levels
that DOE could consider. 75 FR 14368
(March 25, 2010) (the March 2010
Notice). DOE also invited written
comments on these subjects and
announced the availability on its Web
site of a preliminary technical support
document (preliminary TSD) it had
prepared to inform interested parties
and enable them to provide comments.
Id. (The preliminary TSD is available at:
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/
cac_heatpumps_new_rulemaking.html)
Finally, DOE stated its interest in
receiving views concerning other
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relevant issues that participants
believed would affect energy
conservation standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, or that
DOE should address in this direct final
rule. Id. at 14372.
The preliminary TSD provided an
overview of the activities DOE
undertook to develop standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
and discussed the comments DOE
received in response to the framework
document. Similar to the RAP for
furnaces, it also addressed the
consensus agreement that recommended
particular standards for DOE adoption
for furnaces and central air
conditioners/heat pumps, and it
addressed DOE’s consideration of
whether to conduct a single rulemaking
to address standards either for these two
products or for these products and
furnace fans. The preliminary TSD also
described the analytical framework that
DOE used (and continues to use) in
considering standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, including
a description of the methodology, the
analytical tools, and the relationships
between the various analyses that are
part of this rulemaking. The preliminary
TSD presented and described in detail
each analysis that DOE had performed
for these products up to that point,
including descriptions of inputs,
sources, methodologies, and results, and
it included DOE’s evaluation of
potential regional standards for central
air conditioners and heat pumps. These
analyses were as follows:
• A market and technology
assessment addressed the scope of this
rulemaking, identified the potential
classes for central air conditioners and
heat pumps, characterized the markets
for these products, and reviewed
techniques and approaches for
improving their efficiency;
• A screening analysis reviewed
technology options to improve the
efficiency of central air conditioners and
heat pumps, and weighed these options
against DOE’s four prescribed screening
criteria;
• An engineering analysis estimated
the manufacturer selling prices (MSPs)
associated with more energy-efficient
central air conditioners and heat pumps;
• An energy use analysis estimated
the annual energy use of central air
conditioners and heat pumps;
• A markups analysis converted
estimated MSPs derived from the
engineering analysis to consumer prices;
• A life-cycle cost analysis calculated,
for individual consumers, the
discounted savings in operating costs
throughout the estimated average life of
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
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compared to any increase in installed
costs likely to result directly from the
imposition of a given standard;
• A payback period analysis
estimated the amount of time it takes
individual consumers to recover the
higher purchase price expense of more
energy-efficient products through lower
operating costs;
• A shipments analysis estimated
shipments of central air conditioners
and heat pumps over the time period
examined in the analysis, and was used
in performing the national impact
analysis;
• A national impact analysis assessed
the national and regional energy
savings, and the national and regional
net present value of total consumer
costs and savings, expected to result
from specific, potential energy
conservation standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps; and
• A preliminary manufacturer impact
analysis took the initial steps in
evaluating the effects on manufacturers
of amended efficiency standards.
In the March 2010 Notice, DOE
addressed the consensus agreement,
regional standards, and the possibility
of a combined rulemaking. DOE also
summarized in detail in the notice the
nature and function of the following
analyses: (1) Engineering analysis; (2)
energy use analysis; (3) markups to
determine installed prices; (4) LCC and
PBP analyses; and (5) national impact
analysis. 75 FR 14368, 14370–71 (March
25, 2010).
The public meeting announced in the
March 2010 Notice took place on May
5, 2010 at DOE headquarters in
Washington, DC. At this meeting, DOE
presented the methodologies and results
of the analyses set forth in the
preliminary TSD. Interested parties that
participated in the public meeting
discussed a variety of topics, but
centered on the following issues: (1) The
consensus agreement; (2) a combined
rulemaking with furnaces and furnace
fans; (3) efficiency metrics; (4)
technology options; (5) product classes;
(6) installation, maintenance, and repair
costs; (7) markups and distributions
chains; (8) central air conditioner and
heat pumps shipments; and (9)
electricity prices. The comments
received since publication of the March
2010 Notice, including those received at
the May 2010 public meeting, have
contributed to DOE’s resolution of the
issues in this rulemaking as they pertain
to central air conditioners and heat
pumps. This direct final rule responds
to the issues raised by the commenters.
(A parenthetical reference at the end of
a quotation or paraphrase provides the
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location of the item in the public
record.)
III. General Discussion
A. Combined Rulemaking
As discussed in section II.B.2, DOE
had been conducting or planning
separate standards rulemakings for three
interrelated products: (1) Central air
conditioners and heat pumps; (2) gas
furnaces; and (3) furnace fans. Rather
than analyze each set of products
separately, DOE considered combining
the analyses to examine how the
interaction between the three products
impacts the cost to consumers and the
energy savings resulting from potential
amended standards. In both its RAP
regarding energy conservation standards
for residential furnaces and preliminary
analysis for residential central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
specifically invited comment from
interested parties related to the potential
for combining the rulemakings
regarding energy conservation standards
for residential central air conditioners
and heat pumps, residential furnaces,
and furnace fans.
NRDC commented that it supports
accelerating the furnace fan rulemaking
to coincide with the rulemakings for
furnaces and central air conditioners,
because a combined rulemaking would
potentially provide analytical
simplification and is consistent with the
President’s request that DOE meet all
statutory deadlines and accelerate those
with large potential energy savings.
(FUR: NRDC, No. 1.3.020 at pp. 9–10) 17
The California investor-owned utilities
(CA IOUs, i.e., Pacific Gas & Electric,
Southern California Gas Company, San
Diego Gas and Electric, and Southern
California Edison) also supported a
combined rulemaking, arguing that this
approach would allow DOE to more
accurately analyze the energy-efficiency
impacts of various standards options.
The CA IOUs also stated that a
combined rulemaking would reduce
redundant workload for DOE and
minimize the number of public
meetings. (FUR: CA IOUs, No. 1.3.017 at
p. 2) Proctor Engineering Group
(Proctor) stated support for combining
the furnace, furnace fan, and central air
conditioner and heat pump rulemakings
because the three products work
17 In this direct final rule, DOE discusses
comments received in response to both the furnaces
rulemaking analysis plan and the central air
conditioners and heat pumps preliminary analysis.
Comments received in response to the furnace
rulemaking analysis plan are identified by ‘‘FUR’’
preceding the comment citation. Comments
received in response to the central air conditioners
and heat pump preliminary analysis are identified
by ‘‘CAC’’ preceding the comment citation.
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together. Proctor asserted that the
standards need to be integrated together
and that the analysis should be
integrated as well. (FUR: Proctor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 29)
In written comments, Proctor elaborated
that DOE could improve current
standards by promulgating standards
that recognize the interdependence of
furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps,
and air handler fans within the average
U.S. household and that are consistent
such that they can be properly
integrated within a system to produce
results that are representative of a
system typically found in a home in the
United States of America. (FUR, Proctor,
FDMS No. 0002 at p. 2)
The American Council for an Energy
Efficient Economy (ACEEE), Heating
Air-conditioning & Refrigeration
Distributors International (HARDI),
Ingersoll Rand, Southern Company
(Southern), Edison Electric Institute
(EEI), and Lennox supported a
combined rulemaking of furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
but did not support a combined
rulemaking that also covers furnace
fans. (FUR: ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p. 4;
HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at pp. 2, 5–6;
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 1;
Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p. 2) (CAC:
ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 2; HARDI, No. 56
at p. 2; Lennox No. 65 at p. 2; Ingersoll
Rand, No. 66 at p. 8; Southern, No. 73
at p.2; EEI, No. 75 at p. 4) HARDI
commented that there would not be
time for a thorough analysis of furnace
fans if that rulemaking is accelerated to
include it with furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps. (FUR:
HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at pp. 2, 5–6)
Ingersoll Rand concurred, further stating
that furnace fan efficiency is a complex
topic that needs to be handled
separately. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 1) (CAC: Ingersoll Rand,
No. 66 at p. 8) Lennox stated that the
furnace fan rulemaking will be more
complicated than typical DOE
proceedings, and valuable information
can be obtained by conducting the
furnace and central air conditioner and
heat pump rulemakings in advance of
the fan rulemaking. Additionally,
Lennox stated that the furnace fan
rulemaking should not be rushed by
accelerating the schedule by a year and
a half. (FUR: Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p.
2) (CAC: Lennox, No. 65 at p. 2)
The Appliance Standards Awareness
Project (ASAP) submitted a joint
comment on behalf of ACEEE, the Airconditioning, Heating and Refrigeration
Institute (AHRI), Alliance to Save
Energy (ASE), ASAP, California Energy
Commission (CEC), National Consumer
Law Center (NCLC) (on behalf of low-
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income clients), NRDC, Northeast
Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP),
and Northwest Power and Conservation
Council (NPCC). Collectively, these
organizations are referred to as ‘‘Joint
Stakeholders,’’ when referencing this
comment. The Joint Stakeholders stated
that rules for furnaces and air
conditioners can be completed much
earlier than a final rule for furnace fans,
especially if the furnace and air
conditioner rules are based on the
consensus agreement. (FUR: Joint
Stakeholders, No. 1.3.012 at p. 3)
Similarly, AHRI supported a separate
rulemaking for furnace fans, but it stated
that it would agree to a combined
central air conditioners and heat pumps
and furnaces rulemaking, if the
consensus agreement is adopted by DOE
in a direct final rule or through an
expedited normal rulemaking. In the
event that DOE decides not to adopt the
consensus agreement, AHRI
recommended separate rulemakings for
all three products, and explicitly stated
that the furnace fan rulemaking should
not be combined with either of the other
two products under any circumstances
because AHRI believes that shortening
the furnace fan rulemaking is
unreasonable given that DOE has no
prior experience with furnace fans.
AHRI stated that more time is needed to
fully analyze the electrical energy
consumed by furnace fans in order to
establish appropriate energy
conservation standards for those
products. (FUR: AHRI, No. 1.3.008 at p.
3) (CAC: AHRI, No. 67 at p. 3) Rheem
recommended that DOE should conduct
a separate rulemaking for furnace fans
and should only combine the
rulemakings for furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps if DOE
adopts the consensus agreement. Rheem
stated that much study and analysis is
needed to determine the appropriate
energy conservation standards for
furnace fans, and that shortening the
timeframe is unreasonable and not
imperative. (FUR: Rheem, No. 1.3.022 at
pp. 2–3) The American Public Power
Association (APPA) commented that it
supports an ‘‘across the board’’
rulemaking that creates an ‘‘even
playing field’’ for residential space
heating technologies (e.g., heat pumps
and furnaces) so as to avoid a less
competitive market that would cause
market distortions and non-rational
purchasing behavior. (FUR: APPA, No.
1.3.011 at p. 4)
The Air Conditioning Contractors of
America (ACCA) stated there is no
added benefit in combining the
rulemakings for furnaces, residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
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37421
and furnaces fans. (FUR: ACCA, No.
1.3.007 at p. 3) The American Public
Gas Association (APGA) commented
that it does not support combining the
furnace, central air conditioner, and
furnace fan rulemakings. (FUR: APGA,
No. 1.3.004 at p. 2)
DOE agrees with the comments
supporting a combined rulemaking for
central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and furnaces because these products are
linked as part of the complete heating,
ventilation, and air-conditioning
(HVAC) system for a home. A
residential HVAC system often includes
a central air conditioner, a furnace, and
a furnace fan, or in some instances a
heat pump, a furnace, and a furnace fan.
Further, all of the major manufacturers
of these products produce central air
conditioners, heat pumps, and furnaces
and use the same distribution network
for these products. Combining the
analyses for these products simplified
the analyses and allowed for the
analyses to accurately account for the
relations between the different systems.
However, DOE also believes there are
merits to the comments suggesting that
DOE should not attempt to combine
furnace fans with the furnace and
central air conditioner and heat pump
rulemaking. While previous
rulemakings have been conducted to
regulate central air conditioners and
heat pumps and furnaces, furnace fans
are not currently regulated. DOE
recognizes that the analyses required to
develop a test procedure and to
determine appropriate energy
conservation standards for furnaces fans
are complex and will be extensive.
Therefore, DOE has determined that the
furnace fan analysis cannot be
accelerated such that it could be
completed in the shortened timeframe
that would be necessary for a combined
rule that would also include furnace
fans, while still generating valid and
reliable results. Additionally, DOE
believes that the furnace fan rulemaking
would benefit from insights gained
during the combined rulemaking of
central air conditioners and heat pumps
and furnaces. Therefore, DOE has
decided to combine only the central air
conditioner and heat pump and furnace
rulemakings into a single combined
rulemaking. The furnace fan rulemaking
will continue as a separate rulemaking,
and DOE will publish a final rule to
establish energy conservation standards
for furnace fans by December 31, 2013,
as required by 42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(D).
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B. Consensus Agreement
1. Background
On January 15, 2010, AHRI, ACEEE,
ASE, ASAP, NRDC, and NEEP
submitted a joint comment to DOE’s
residential furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps
rulemakings recommending adoption of
a package of minimum energy
conservation standards for residential
central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and furnaces, as well as associated
compliance dates for such standards,
which represents a negotiated
agreement among a variety of interested
stakeholders including manufacturers
and environmental and efficiency
advocates. (FUR: Joint Comment, No.
1.3.001; CAC: Joint Comment, No. 47)
More specifically, the original
agreement was completed on October
13, 2009, and had 15 signatories,
including AHRI, ACEEE, ASE, NRDC,
ASAP, NEEP, NPCC, CEC, Bard
Manufacturing Company Inc., Carrier
Residential and Light Commercial
Systems, Goodman Global Inc., Lennox
Residential, Mitsubishi Electric &
Electronics USA, National Comfort
Products, and Trane Residential.
Numerous interested parties, including
signatories of the consensus agreement
as well as other parties, expressed
support for DOE adoption of the
consensus agreement in both oral and
written comments on the furnaces and
central air conditioners rulemakings,
which are described in further detail in
section III.B.3. In both the furnace RAP
and the central air conditioner and heat
pump preliminary analysis, DOE
requested comment on all aspects of the
consensus agreement, including the
regional divisions, recommended
standard levels, and the suggested
compliance dates.
After careful consideration of the joint
comment containing a consensus
recommendation for amended energy
conservation standards for residential
central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and furnaces, the Secretary has
determined that this ‘‘Consensus
Agreement’’ has been submitted by
interested persons who are fairly
representative of relevant points of view
on this matter. Congress provided some
guidance within the statute itself by
specifying that representatives of
manufacturers of covered products,
States, and efficiency advocates are
relevant parties to any consensus
recommendation. (42 U.S.C.
6295(p)(4)(A)) As delineated above, the
Consensus Agreement was signed and
submitted by a broad cross-section of
the manufacturers who produce the
subject products, their trade
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associations, and environmental and
energy-efficiency advocacy
organizations. Although States were not
signatories to the Consensus Agreement,
they did not express any opposition to
it. Moreover, DOE does not read the
statute as requiring absolute agreement
among all interested parties before the
Department may proceed with issuance
of a direct final rule. By explicit
language of the statute, the Secretary has
discretion to determine when a joint
recommendation for an energy or water
conservation standard has met the
requirement for representativeness (i.e.,
‘‘as determined by the Secretary’’).
Accordingly, DOE will consider each
consensus recommendation on a caseby-case basis to determine whether the
submission has been made by interested
persons fairly representative of relevant
points of view.
Pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4), the
Secretary must also determine whether
a jointly-submitted recommendation for
an energy or water conservation
standard is in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
6295(o) or 42 U.S.C. 6313(a)(6)(B), as
applicable. This determination is
exactly the type of analysis which DOE
conducts whenever it considers
potential energy conservation standards
pursuant to EPCA. DOE applies the
same principles to any consensus
recommendations it may receive to
satisfy its statutory obligation to ensure
that any energy conservation standard
that it adopts achieves the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified and will result in
significant conservation of energy, Upon
review, the Secretary determined that
the Consensus Agreement submitted in
the instant rulemaking comports with
the standard-setting criteria set forth
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o). Accordingly,
the consensus agreement levels were
included as TSL 4 in this rule, the
details of which are discussed at
relevant places throughout this
document.
In sum, as the relevant criteria under
42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4) have been satisfied,
the Secretary has determined that it is
appropriate to adopt amended energy
conservation standards for residential
central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and furnaces through this direct final
rule.
As required by the same statutory
provision, DOE is also simultaneously
publishing a NOPR which proposes the
identical standard levels contained in
this direct final rule with a 110-day
public comment period. (While DOE
typically provides a comment period of
60 days on proposed standards, in this
case DOE provides a comment period of
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the same length as the comment period
on the direct final rule.) DOE will
consider whether any comment received
during this comment period is
sufficiently ‘‘adverse’’ as to provide a
reasonable basis for withdrawal of the
direct final rule and continuation of this
rulemaking under the NOPR. Typical of
other rulemakings, it is the substance,
rather than the quantity, of comments
that will ultimately determine whether
a direct final rule will be withdrawn. To
this end, the substance of any adverse
comment(s) received will be weighed
against the anticipated benefits of the
Consensus Agreement and the
likelihood that further consideration of
the comment(s) would change the
results of the rulemaking. DOE notes
that to the extent an adverse comment
had been previously raised and
addressed in the rulemaking
proceeding, such a submission will not
typically provide a basis for withdrawal
of a direct final rule.
2. Recommendations
a. Regions
The consensus agreement divides the
nation into three regions for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
and two regions for residential furnaces
based on the population-weighted
number of heating degree days (HDD) of
each State and recommends a different
minimum standard level for products
installed in each region. For these
products generally, States with 5,000
HDD or more are considered as part of
the northern region, while States with
less than 5,000 HDD are considered part
of the southern region, and these regions
(and the States that compose them) are
discussed further in section III.D. For
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps, the consensus agreement
establishes a third region—the
‘‘southwest’’ region—comprised of
California, Arizona, New Mexico, and
Nevada. For furnaces, the southwest
region States are included in the
southern region. For residential central
air conditioners and heat pumps, the
States in the northern region would be
subject to the ‘‘National standard’’
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(6)(B)(i), while
regional standards would apply for
States in the two southern regions (i.e.,
the hot-dry region and hot-humid
region). For furnaces, the States in the
southern region would be subject to the
‘‘National standard’’ under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(6)(B)(i), while the States in the
northern region would be required to
meet a more-stringent regional standard.
DOE received numerous comments from
interested parties regarding the regional
definitions for the analysis, some of
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which were related to the regions
recommended in the consensus
agreement. These comments are
discussed in detail in section III.D,
‘‘Regional Standards.’’
b. Standard Levels
The minimum energy conservation
standards for furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps
recommended by the consensus
agreement are contained in Table III.1
and Table III.2. (CAC: Joint Comment,
No. 47 at p. 2) The consensus agreement
recommends amended AFUE standards
for all furnace product classes that are
being considered in this rulemaking for
amended minimum AFUE energy
conservation standards. However, the
agreement does not contain
recommendations for amended SEER
and HSPF standards for the spaceconstrained or small-duct, high-velocity
(SDHV) product classes of central air
conditioners and heat pumps, which are
also included in this rulemaking.
Additionally, the consensus agreement
does not contain recommendations for
energy conservation standards for
standby mode and off mode energy
consumption, which DOE is required to
consider in this rulemaking pursuant to
42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3).
For central air conditioners, the
consensus agreement recommends that
DOE adopt dual metrics (i.e., SEER and
37423
EER) for the hot-dry region. Generally,
DOE notes that EPCA’s definition of
‘‘efficiency descriptor’’ at 42 U.S.C
6291(22) specifies that the efficiency
descriptor for both central air
conditioners and heat pumps shall be
SEER. Accordingly, DOE used SEER as
the sole metric for analyzing most of the
TSLs considered for today’s direct final
rule. However, DOE believes that the
language at 42 U.S.C 6295(p)(4)
provides DOE some measure of
discretion when considering
recommended standards in a consensus
agreement, if the Secretary determines
that the recommended standards are in
accordance with 42 U.S.C. 6295(o).
TABLE III.1—CONSENSUS AGREEMENT RECOMMENDED MINIMUM ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL
FURNACES
Recommended AFUE
requirement for States
with ≥ 5,000 HDD*
%
System type
Recommended AFUE
requirement for States
with < 5,000 HDD**
%
90
83
81
80
83
81
Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces† ....................................................................................................
Non-weatherized Oil Furnaces ........................................................................................................
Gas-Packs (weatherized furnace) ...................................................................................................
* These States include: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota,
Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
** These States include: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
†Non-weatherized gas furnaces also include mobile home furnaces.
TABLE III.2—CONSENSUS AGREEMENT RECOMMENDED MINIMUM ENERGY CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR RESIDENTIAL
CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS
System Type
Recommended SEER/HSPF
requirements for northern ‘‘rest of
country’’ region*
Recommended SEER/HSPF
requirements for southeast ‘‘hothumid’’ region**
Split AC ..........................................
13 SEER .......................................
14 SEER .......................................
Split HP ..........................................
Packaged AC .................................
Packaged HP .................................
Space Constrained AC and HP
and SDHV.
14 SEER/8.2HSPF .......................
14 SEER .......................................
14 SEER/8.0 HSPF ......................
No standard recommended ..........
14 SEER/8.2 HSPF ......................
14 SEER .......................................
14 SEER/8.0 HSPF ......................
No standard recommended ..........
Recommended SEER/HSPF
requirements for southwest ‘‘hotdry’’ region†
14 SEER/12.2 EER
<45,000 Btu/h.
14 SEER/11.7EER
>45,000 Btu/h.
14 SEER/8.2 HSPF.
14 SEER/11.0 EER.
14 SEER/8.0 HSPF.
No standard recommended.
* These States include: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota,
Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
** These States include: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
† These States include: Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Nevada.
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c. Compliance Dates
The compliance dates specified in the
consensus agreement are May 1, 2013,
for non-weatherized furnaces and
January 1, 2015, for weatherized
furnaces (i.e., ‘‘gas-packs’’) and central
air conditioners and heat pumps. These
dates are at least eighteen months earlier
than the compliance dates for these
products as determined under 42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)(B) and (f)(4)(C). DOE
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received several comments from
interested parties regarding its
consideration of the compliance dates
specified by the consensus agreement,
as well as comments about the
compliance dates under EPCA. A full
discussion of comments related to the
compliance dates for energy
conservation standards for furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps
is contained in section III.C.
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3. Comments on Consensus Agreement
In its RAP for residential furnaces and
the preliminary analysis for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE specifically invited comment from
interested parties on the consensus
agreement. In particular, DOE was
interested in comments relating to the
recommended AFUE, SEER, and HSPF
requirements, the recommended
regional divisions, and the
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recommended compliance dates for
amended standards. As noted above,
comments on the regional divisions are
discussed in section III.D. Additionally,
DOE discusses compliance dates and
the related comments in section III.C.
DOE received numerous other
comments regarding whether interested
parties support or do not support the
consensus agreement, whether DOE
should adopt the consensus agreement
as a direct final rule, and additional
concerns interested parties have about
the agreement. These comments are
discussed in the paragraphs below.
Many commenters expressed support
for the adoption of the consensus
agreement. ACEEE stated it is the best
available route to the maximum savings
that are technologically feasible and
economically justified. (FUR: ACEEE,
No.1.3.009 at p. 1) (CAC: ACEEE, No. 72
at p. 1) NRDC requested that DOE move
expeditiously to adopt the levels and
dates presented by the agreement. (FUR:
NRDC, No.1.3.020 at pp. 1–2) NEEP
expressed support for the standard
levels and procedural improvements in
the consensus agreement and urged
DOE to implement the
recommendations through a direct final
rule. (FUR: NEEP, No.1.3.021 at p. 1)
ASAP stated its strong support for
adoption of the consensus agreement,
and encouraged DOE to adopt the
consensus agreement as a direct final
rule. (FUR: ASAP, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 38–39)
AHRI stated that the agreement has
several benefits including: (1) An
accelerated compliance date of May
2013; (2) acceleration of the next
rulemaking iteration; (3) a significant
amount of energy savings; (4) economic
savings to consumers; and (5) the fact
that it would allow DOE to focus its
resources on completing other
rulemakings involving new or amended
energy conservation standards. In the
event that DOE cannot promulgate a
direct final rule, AHRI recommended
that DOE adopt the agreement in an
expedited rulemaking process. (FUR:
AHRI, No.1.3.008 at pp. 1–3) (CAC:
AHRI, No. 67 at pp. 1–2) Carrier stated
that DOE should adopt the consensus
agreement, because it includes a
comprehensive, harmonized approach
for new regional efficiency standards
that could be implemented in an
accelerated fashion. (FUR: Carrier,
No.1.3.013 at p. 2) (CAC: Carrier, No. 60
at p. 1) Ingersoll Rand and EEI echoed
these comments. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
No.1.3.006 at p. 1) (CAC: Ingersoll Rand,
No. 66 at p. 1; EEI, No. 75 at p. 2)
Southern initially stated at the furnaces
public meeting that DOE should issue a
NOPR and have a comment period
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rather than go directly to a final rule
because many stakeholder groups were
left out of the consensus agreement
process. (FUR: Southern, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 258–59)
However, in its later comments on the
central air conditioners and heat pumps
rulemaking, Southern clarified its
position, recommending that DOE
accept the consensus agreement and,
proceed with a direct final rule on
central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and furnace standards, if the necessary
minor statutory revisions (e.g., changes
to building codes) are approved by
Congress. (CAC: Southern, No. 73 at p.
1)
Lennox and NPCC supported the
adoption of the consensus agreement in
full, including the AFUE standards,
recommended regional divisions, and
recommended compliance dates.
Lennox supported DOE’s use of a direct
final rule to adopt the agreement or, as
an alternative, use of the standard
rulemaking process in an expedited
fashion. (FUR: Lennox, No.1.3.018 at p.
1) (CAC: Lennox, No. 65 at pp.1–2)
(CAC: NPCC, No. 74 at p.1) Ingersoll
Rand commented that DOE should
adopt the consensus agreement because
it would allow DOE to focus its
resources on the furnace fan rule and on
development of regional standards.
(CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p. 1)
Rheem asserted that Congress
authorized DOE to issue direct final
rules upon receipt of joint stakeholder
proposals and that the agreement
satisfies the criteria of the law and the
Process Improvement Rule.18 However,
Rheem stated that if DOE cannot issue
a direct final rule, Rheem would
recommend that DOE adopt the
agreement in an expedited rulemaking
process. (FUR: Rheem, No.1.3.022 at pp.
1–2) (CAC: Rheem, No. 71 at p. 2)
Daikin expressed support for the
consensus agreement, provided that the
SEER level for new construction is
raised to 15 SEER on January 1, 2013
and to 18 SEER on January 1, 2016.
(CAC: Daikin, No. 63 at p. 2)
The Joint Stakeholders expressed
support for the agreement and
encouraged DOE to expedite the
adoption of the agreement through
either a direct final rule or through the
standard rulemaking process. The Joint
Stakeholders cited many of the
previously mentioned benefits and
18 The Process Improvement Rule was published
in the Federal Register by DOE on July 15, 1996,
and codified in Appendix A to 10 CFR part 430,
subpart C. 61 FR 36974. The Process Improvement
Rule elaborated on the procedures, interpretations,
and policies that guide DOE in establishing new or
amended energy conservation standards for
consumer products.
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added that the consensus agreement
would enable States to incorporate
more-stringent appliance efficiency
standards into their building codes,
which are limited by Federal appliance
efficiency standards. The Joint
Stakeholders stated that DOE should
address the issues of standby mode and
off mode energy consumption for
residential furnaces and standards for
furnace fans in separate rulemakings
without impeding the adoption of the
consensus agreement in a final rule in
the current rulemaking. (FUR: Joint
Stakeholders, No. 1.3.012 at pp. 1–4)
APPA stated that it is in favor of the
consensus agreement because it
provides a high degree of regulatory
certainty for manufacturers and utilities,
and increases the minimum efficiency
of gas and oil furnaces, products for
which energy conservation standards
have not been updated since 1992.
APPA argued that DOE has the authority
to adopt the consensus agreement in a
direct final rule. (FUR: APPA, No.
1.3.011 at pp. 2–3) EEI expressed
support for the consensus agreement for
many of the reasons outlined above,
adding that the consensus agreement
would have the added benefit of
increasing standards for furnaces at
nearly the same time as the efficiency
standards for residential boilers are
increasing. (FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015 at p.
2) CA IOUs supported the consensus
agreement as a balanced package that
would achieve significant energy,
economic, and environmental benefits,
while providing regulatory certainty.
They urged DOE to adopt as efficiently
as possible the regulatory aspects of the
agreement, either through a direct final
rule or the normal rulemaking process.
However, the CA IOUs recognized that
not all stakeholders supported the
consensus agreement, and encouraged
DOE to choose a rulemaking path that
will produce a robust, defensible, and
enforceable final standard. (FUR: CA
IOUs, No. 1.3.017 at p. 1)
On behalf of Texas Client Services
Center, Massachusetts Union of Public
Housing Tenants, Texas Ratepayers
Organization to Save Energy
(collectively referred to hereafter as Low
Income Groups), the National Consumer
Law Center encouraged DOE to accept
and implement the recommendations
contained in the Joint Comment as soon
as possible. The Low Income Groups are
particularly interested in having DOE
adopt the standards for furnaces, heat
pumps, and central air conditioners
included in the consensus agreement,
along with the associated effective dates
and regional boundaries. (FUR: Low
Income Groups, No. 1.3.019 at pp. 5–6)
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In contrast to the above viewpoints,
some commenters expressed opposition
to, or reservations about, adoption of the
consensus agreement. The American
Gas Association (AGA) stated that DOE
should not adopt the consensus
agreement and should continue refining
the November 2007 Rule. AGA strongly
recommended that DOE should not
issue a direct final rule requiring a 90percent AFUE minimum efficiency for
furnaces in the northern States and
should, instead, proceed with an
analysis of the technological feasibility
and economic justification of the
proposal, consistent with governing
statutory requirements. It added that the
signatories of the agreement do not
represent consumer interests in the
affected States, and that DOE needs to
more fully account for potential
consumer impacts. (FUR: AGA, No.
1.3.010 at p. 2) In the public meeting,
AGA expressed concerns about
replacing a non-condensing furnace
with a condensing furnace due to
potential problems with venting
systems. (FUR: AGA, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 40–41)
APGA expressed similar comments,
further stating that DOE should consider
non-regulatory mechanisms to
encourage market transformation to
condensing non-weatherized furnaces,
including through building codes. (FUR:
APGA, No. 1.3.004 at pp. 3–4) The
National Propane Gas Association
(NPGA) also opposed requiring 90percent AFUE furnaces in northern
States, because of concerns related to
venting issues in replacement
installations (particularly when a
furnace that has a common vent with a
water heater is being replaced). (FUR:
NPGA, No. 1.3.005 at p. 4)
HARDI stated that it supports the
consensus agreement only to the extent
that DOE is confident it can justify
increases to residential HVAC minimum
efficiency standards and regionalization
of standards. HARDI is not convinced
such justification is possible given its
experiences since the last amendments
to the central air conditioners and heat
pumps standards in 2006. (FUR: HARDI,
No. 1.3.016 at p. 4) (CAC: HARDI, No.
56 at p. 4) HARDI believes DOE will
have difficulty justifying a higher
heating standard in a northern region
that includes both North Dakota and
Kentucky, which have vastly different
heating demands. HARDI also stated
that a southeastern regional standard
that applies to both Florida and
Maryland, or a southwestern regional
standard that includes cities with
significantly different climates appears
to significantly threaten consumer
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choice and product availability. (FUR:
HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at p. 5) HARDI is
also concerned that: (1) The standards
in the consensus agreement will
encourage utilities to exit the energyefficiency business as it pertains to
HVAC systems, because they might no
longer see value in providing an
incentive for 95-percent AFUE premium
furnaces if a standard is set at 90percent AFUE; and (2) the loss of such
incentives would make purchases of
higher-than-minimum-efficiency
furnaces highly unlikely. (FUR: HARDI,
No. 1.3.016 at p. 8)
ACCA expressed concern over the
requirement for condensing furnaces in
the northern region, noting that the cost
of replacing a non-condensing furnace
with a condensing furnace (which might
require venting retrofit measures) could
be prohibitive in some cases. (FUR:
ACCA, No. 1.3.007 at pp. 2–3)
DOE also received comments that,
while not specifically addressing the
consensus agreement, concern the
standard-level recommendations for
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
Specifically, Southern remarked that
standards should have equal cooling
efficiency requirements for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, and
Ingersoll Rand, Rheem, and EEI
provided similar statements. (CAC:
Southern, No. 73 at p. 3) (CAC: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 66 at p. 1) (CAC: EEI, No. 75
at p. 5) (CAC: Rheem, No. 76 at p. 2)
In considering the proposed standard
levels in the consensus agreement, DOE
reviewed 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4)(C), which
states that if DOE issues a direct final
rule (as suggested by the signatories to
the consensus agreement) and receives
any adverse public comments within
120 days of publication of the rule, then
DOE would be forced to withdraw the
final rule. Interested parties have
already submitted comments expressing
opposition to the consensus agreement,
which indicates there is a possibility
that DOE may receive adverse
comments to the adoption of the
consensus agreement as part of this
direct final rule.
DOE recognizes the substantial effort
and analysis that resulted in the
consensus agreement and analyzed it as
a separate TSL, in conjunction with
other TSLs for this direct final rule. As
described above, the interested parties
opposing the consensus agreement were
primarily concerned with the
requirement that non-weatherized gas
furnaces and mobile home furnaces in
the northern region achieve a minimum
of 90-percent AFUE. In its analysis for
today’s direct final rule, DOE addressed
the issues raised by the parties with
respect to replacement installations of
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90-percent AFUE non-weatherized gas
furnaces or mobile home furnaces. DOE
believes that, although in some
instances it may be costly, consumers
can replace non-condensing furnace
with condensing furnaces in virtually
all installations.
As suggested by AGA, DOE performed
an analysis of the technological
feasibility and economic justification of
the consensus agreement
recommendations, consistent with
statutory requirements in EPCA. DOE
fully considered all costs of replacing
non-condensing furnaces with
condensing furnaces in the northern
region. DOE’s results indicate that some
consumers would be negatively
impacted by a northern region standard
at 90-percent AFUE for non-weatherized
gas furnaces or mobile home furnaces,
but that on balance, the benefits of such
a standard would outweigh the costs.
Section V.C of this notice discusses the
results of DOE’s analyses and the
weighting of benefits and burdens when
considering the consensus agreement
standard levels and compliance dates
(i.e., TSL 4).
C. Compliance Dates
EPCA establishes a lead time between
the publication of amended energy
conservation standards and the date by
which manufacturers must comply with
the amended standards for both
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. For furnaces, EPCA
dictates an eight-year period between
the rulemaking publication date and
compliance date for the first round of
amended residential furnace standards,
and a five-year period for the second
round of amended residential furnace
standards. (42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(B)–(C))
DOE has concluded that the remand
agreement for furnaces does not vacate
the November 2007 Rule for furnaces
and boilers. Therefore, the November
2007 Rule completed the first round of
rulemaking for amended energy
conservation standards for furnaces,
thereby satisfying the requirements of
42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(B). As a result, the
current rulemaking constitutes the
second round of rulemaking for
amended energy conservation standards
for furnaces, as required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(C), a provision which
prescribes a five-year period between
the standard’s publication date and
compliance date. For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, the
statutory provision at 42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)(B) establishes a similar fiveyear time period between the standard’s
publication date and compliance date.
Therefore, in its analysis of amended
energy conservation standards for
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furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, DOE used a five-year
lead time between the publication of the
standard and the compliance date for all
TSLs, except for the TSL which
analyzed the consensus agreement.
Because the accelerated compliance
dates were a negotiated aspect of the
consensus agreement which amounts to
an important benefit, DOE used the
accelerated compliance dates when
analyzing the consensus agreement TSL.
(See section V.A for a description of the
TSLs considered for this direct final
rule.)
In response to the RAP for furnaces
and the preliminary analysis for central
air conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
received comments from interested
parties regarding the required lead time
between the publication of amended
energy conservation standards and the
date by which manufacturers must
comply with the amended standards.
These comments are discussed in the
section immediately below.
a. Consensus Agreement Compliance
Dates
Several interested parties commented
on the issue of the compliance dates for
amended energy conservation standards
for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps in the context of the
dates specified in the consensus
agreement. AHRI argued that DOE has
the authority to adopt the accelerated
standards compliance dates in the
consensus agreement whether DOE
proceeds via a conventional rulemaking
process or via direct final rule. AHRI
asserted that 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4),
‘‘Direct final rules,’’ which delineates
procedures for when DOE receives a
joint recommendation for amended
standards by interested parties that are
fairly representative of relevant points
of view (including manufacturers,
States, and efficiency advocates),
trumps 42 U.S.C. 6295(m),
‘‘Amendment of standards,’’ which
contains specific provisions pertaining
to compliance dates and lead time.
Further, AHRI commented that DOE has
itself previously recognized that in
circumstances where the manufacturers
who must comply with a standard
support acceleration of the compliance
date of the standard, DOE has the
flexibility to adopt the earlier
compliance date (see 67 FR 36368,
36394 (May 23, 2002) and 69 FR 50997,
50998 (August 17, 2004)). (FUR: AHRI,
No. 1.3.008 at pp. 3–4) (CAC: AHRI, No.
67 at pp. 3–4) NRDC and Rheem
expressed similar views. (FUR: NRDC,
No. 1.3.020 at p. 2; Rheem, No. 1.3.022
at p. 3) (CAC: Rheem, No. 71 at p. 3)
However, AHRI further clarified its
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position that if DOE decides in a final
rule to adopt levels that are different
from those in the consensus agreement,
then AHRI would maintain that the
compliance date (for furnaces) specified
by the law would be eight years after
publication of the final rule. (FUR:
AHRI, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
1.2.006 at p. 126)
EarthJustice asserted that DOE must
either adopt the compliance dates
specified in the consensus agreement, or
adopt an expedited compliance
deadline of its own design. EarthJustice
asserted that the provisions of EPCA
relevant here do not require an eightyear lead time for furnaces, but instead
require a hard-date deadline, which has
passed. Therefore, EarthJustice believes
DOE has discretion in setting a
compliance date. EarthJustice added
that there is no basis to the argument
that maintaining an eight-year lead time
is necessary to ease manufacturers’
compliance burdens since
manufacturers have indicated via the
consensus agreement that they can meet
the levels in the consensus agreement in
a much shorter timeframe than eight
years. (FUR: EarthJustice, No. 1.3.014 at
pp. 2–4)
Similarly, ACEEE stated that DOE
should seriously consider adopting the
compliance dates in the consensus
agreement because the compliance dates
in the statute are intended to provide
manufacturers time to reengineer their
products and production facilities, but
in this case, manufacturers have agreed
to the compliance dates specified in the
consensus agreement. (FUR: ACEEE,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at pp. 112–113) ACEEE acknowledged
that while having the same compliance
dates for all products is desirable for
implementation and enforcement
purposes, limited engineering resources
led to different compliance dates for
non-weatherized gas and weatherized
gas furnaces in the consensus agreement
(of 2013 and 2015, respectively). (FUR:
ACEEE, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
1.2.006 at pp. 109–110)
EEI suggested that if DOE rejects the
consensus agreement, DOE should
establish a compliance date for all
covered furnaces that is no later than
November 19, 2015 (i.e., the compliance
date for the standards promulgated in
the November 2007 Rule). This date is
shortly before the compliance date for
the new efficiency standards for heat
pumps in June 2016, and according to
EEI, it would avoid potential market
distortions for space heating equipment
that might result from increasing
efficiency standards for one product
type but not for a competing product.
(FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015 at p. 4) (CAC:
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EEI, No. 75 at p. 4) APPA reiterated
EEI’s comments on these points. (FUR:
APPA, No. 1.3.011 at pp. 3–4)
After careful consideration of these
comments, DOE has concluded that it is
bound by EPCA in terms of setting the
lead time between the publication of
amended energy conservation standards
and the date by which manufacturers
must comply with those amended
standards. DOE has consistently
interpreted the statutory time period
between publication of a final rule and
the compliance date for amended
standards to reflect Congress’s
determination as to adequate lead time
for manufacturers to retool their
operations to ensure that the product in
question meets the new or amended
standards, even in those instances
where the statutory deadline has passed.
However, DOE agrees with AHRI,
Rheem, and NRDC that in circumstances
where the manufacturers who must
comply with the standard support
acceleration of the compliance date of
the standard (such as in the case of the
consensus agreement where compliance
dates were an integral part of the
agreement), DOE has some flexibility in
establishing the compliance dates for
amended energy conservation
standards. For the other levels, DOE
believes the statutory provisions
pertaining to lead time should continue
to govern, particularly for levels more
stringent than the consensus agreement
(i.e., levels to which manufacturers
never agreed, particularly on an
accelerated basis). Therefore, as noted in
the preceding section, DOE has
determined that for all TSLs analyzed—
except for the consensus agreement
TSL—DOE is bound by the lead time
requirements in EPCA when
determining compliance dates. For
those other TSLs, the analysis accounts
for a five-year lead time between the
publication of the final rule for furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps and the date by which
manufacturers would have to comply
with the amended standard. However,
for the consensus agreement TSL, DOE’s
analyses utilized the compliance dates
specified in the consensus agreement.
b. Shift From Peak Season
Several interested parties noted that if
DOE follows a typical rulemaking
schedule and publishes a final rule on
June 30, 2011, then the compliance date
(June 2016) would fall during the peak
of the air conditioner shipment season
in 2016. Interested parties expressed
concern that a compliance date during
peak season could potentially lead to
costly disruptions in the distribution
chain, as well as consumer confusion.
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HARDI, Southern, ACEEE, and Ingersoll
Rand stated that the compliance date
should not be set during the peak
cooling season. (CAC: HARDI, No. 70 at
p. 2; ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 3; SCS, No.
73 at p. 2; Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p.
3). HARDI, ACEEE, and Southern went
further and recommended that January
1 be used as the compliance date
instead for central air conditioners and
heat pumps. (CAC: HARDI, No. 70 at p.
2; ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 3; SCS, No. 73
at p. 2) EEI also noted that if compliance
dates are moved for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, then the
compliance dates for furnaces should be
moved as well to avoid the same issue
for the heating season. (CAC: EEI, No. 75
at p. 3)
As discussed above in this section,
DOE believes that the applicable
statutory provisions (i.e., 42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(C) for furnaces and 42 U.S.C.
6295(d)(3)(B) for central air conditioners
and heat pumps) necessitate a five-year
time period between the final rule
publication date and the compliance
date. The only exception would be in
the case of the adoption of the
consensus agreement, because of the
importance of accelerated compliance
dates to the energy savings provided by
this agreement. If DOE adopts any
standards besides those in the
consensus agreement, DOE believes that
it is constrained by EPCA and does not
have the authority to shift the
compliance dates away from the peak
cooling season (either earlier or later).
However, this constraint does not
prevent manufacturers from voluntarily
complying at an earlier non-peak season
date to ease the transition to amended
energy conservation standards.
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode
Compliance Dates
EPCA, as amended, does direct DOE
to incorporate standby mode and off
mode energy consumption into a single
amended or new standard, if feasible.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)(A)) Under such a
circumstance where standby mode and
off mode energy consumption is
integrated into the existing regulatory
metric, the standby mode and off mode
standards would have the same
compliance dates as the amended or
new active mode standards. Therefore,
DOE believes that, when feasible, the
compliance dates for standby mode and
off mode should be the same as the
compliance dates for amended active
mode energy conservation standards.
Although DOE has determined that it is
technically infeasible to integrate the
standby mode and off mode energy
consumption into a single standard for
furnaces and central air conditioners/
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heat pumps, DOE believes it is still
sensible to keep the timeline for
compliance with standby mode and off
mode standards the same so that
manufacturers of furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps can bring
all of their compliance-related
modifications forward at the same time.
DOE further believes that this approach
would provide adequate lead time for
manufacturers to make the changes
necessary to comply with the standby
mode and off mode standards. As a
result, DOE is adopting standby mode
and off mode standards with
compliance dates that match the
compliance dates for amended AFUE,
SEER, and HSPF minimum energy
conservation standards.
D. Regional Standards
As described in section II.A, EISA
2007 amended EPCA to allow for the
establishment of a single morerestrictive regional standard in addition
to the base national standard for
furnaces, and up to two more-restrictive
regional standards in addition to the
base national standard for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(6)(B)) The regions
must include only contiguous States
(with the exception of Alaska and
Hawaii, which can be included in
regions with which they are not
contiguous), and each State may be
placed in only one region (i.e., a State
cannot be divided among or otherwise
included in two regions). (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(6)(C))
Further, EPCA mandates that a
regional standard must produce
significant energy savings in
comparison to a single national
standard, and provides that DOE must
determine that the additional standards
are economically justified and consider
the impact of the additional regional
standards on consumers, manufacturers,
and other market participants, including
product distributors, dealers,
contractors, and installers. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(6)(D)) For this rulemaking, DOE
has considered the above-delineated
impacts of regional standards in
addition to national standards for both
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
For single-package air conditioners
and single-package heat pumps, DOE
has analyzed the standards on a national
basis where the standard would be
effectively the same in each region. For
consistency with the consensus
agreement and ease of presentation,
DOE specifies the requirements of the
standard by region, but for all practical
purposes the standard is a national one.
DOE evaluated whether regional
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standards with different requirements in
certain regions satisfied the statutory
criteria for regional standards. Given the
low level of shipments of these
products, DOE determined that
enforcement of regionally distinct
standards would be difficult for these
product categories. DOE believes that it
is likely that given a less stringent
requirement in some regions there
would be leakage effects (i.e. installers
purchasing product in less stringent
regions and shipping them to regions
with more stringent requirements). Such
leakage effects would decrease the
energy savings of regionally distinct
standards requirements relative to a
national standard with the same
stringency in each region. DOE has
therefore determined that regional
standards would not produce significant
energy savings in comparison to a single
national standard for these products.
DOE made a similar determination for
oil-fired furnaces.
Where appropriate, DOE has
addressed the potential impacts from
regional standards in the relevant direct
final rule analyses, including the markups to determine product price, the LCC
and payback period analysis, the
national impact analysis (NIA), and the
manufacturer impact analysis (MIA).
DOE’s approach for addressing regional
standards is included in the
methodology section corresponding to
each individual analysis, in section IV
of this notice. For certain phases of the
analysis, additional regional analysis is
not required. For example, technologies
for improving product efficiency
generally do not vary by region, and
thus, DOE did not perform any
additional regional analysis for the
technology assessment and screening
analysis. Similarly, DOE did not
examine the impacts of having two
regions in the engineering analysis,
since the technologies and manufacturer
processes are the same under both a
national and regional standard.
1. Furnace Regions for Analysis
To evaluate regional standards for
residential furnaces, in the RAP, DOE
stated its intention to use the regions
shown in Table III.3 and Figure III.1.
The allocation of individual States to
the regions is similar to the evaluation
methodology DOE used in exploring
regional standards in the November
2007 Rule, although DOE ultimately
decided that it could not adopt such an
approach because it lacked statutory
authority, a situation which changed
with enactment of EISA 2007. The
allocation considered in the November
2007 Rule was largely based on whether
a State’s annual heating HDD average is
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above or below 5,000. 72 FR 65136,
65146–47 (Nov. 19, 2007). This level
offers a rough threshold point at which
space heating demands are significant
enough to require longer operation of
heating systems, which provides a basis
for utilization of higher-efficiency
systems. In the RAP, DOE proposed two
changes from the November 2007 Rule
methodology to establish regions for
furnaces. The first was moving Nevada
from the Northern region to the
Southern region, and the second was
moving West Virginia from the Southern
region to the Northern region. These
changes better reflect the climate
characteristics of these two States—
West Virginia has on average more than
5,000 HDD, and Nevada’s major
population areas have fewer than 5,000
HDD. DOE notes that the changes
resulted in a regional allocation of
States that is the same as the regions
defined in the consensus agreement.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand stated that the regions
proposed for the regional analysis are
appropriate. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 1) Lennox expressed a
similar view, noting that the regional
definitions outlined in the furnaces RAP
are consistent with the consensus
agreement. (FUR: Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at
p. 2) NCLC commented that the Low
Income Groups support the regions
defined as north and south in the
agreement. (FUR: NCLC, No. 1.3.019 at
p. 6) HARDI stated that the 5,000 HDD
demarcation makes the most sense.
(FUR: HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at p. 5)
ACEEE expressed a similar view, but
added that if the consensus agreement is
not adopted, DOE needs to examine the
economics and other impacts of highefficiency furnaces at other possible
regional boundaries, such as 4,500 and
4,000 HDD. (FUR: ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at
p. 4) ASAP expressed support for the
regions proposed for the furnaces
regional analysis and stated that having
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TABLE III.3—REGIONS FOR ANALYSIS
OF FURNACE STANDARDS
Northern region states
(rest of country)
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
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Southern region
States
Alabama
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Mississippi
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TABLE III.3—REGIONS FOR ANALYSIS
OF FURNACE STANDARDS—Continued
Northern region states
(rest of country)
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Southern region
States
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
consistent regional borders for furnaces
and central air conditioners is important
to help reduce issues associated with
implementing and enforcing regional
standards. (FUR: ASAP, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 64–65)
APPA stated that if DOE rejects the
climate zones specified in the consensus
agreement, DOE should modify its
definition of the northern region in such
a way that, in effect, it would include
‘‘southwestern’’ States, such as Arizona,
Nevada, and New Mexico, in the
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northern region, because the majority of
these States have a climate that is
similar to some other States that DOE
has classified in the northern region.
(FUR: APPA, No. 1.3.011 at p. 3) EEI
stated that DOE should consider
establishing California, Nevada,
Arizona, and New Mexico as northern
States for purposes of regional
standards, in order to be more
consistent with DOE’s classification of
northern States, and to avoid leaving
energy savings on the table when
establishing new heating efficiency
standards. (FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015 at
pp. 3–4)
After evaluating these comments,
DOE has concluded that using a 5,000
HDD threshold as the basis for assigning
States to northern or southern regions,
as proposed in the furnaces RAP, is
appropriate. DOE does not believe that
the States mentioned by APPA and EEI
should be classified as northern States
for the analysis of furnaces. On average,
these States have significantly lower
heating loads than the other States that
DOE has classified as northern States.
Therefore, for the direct final rule
analysis of furnaces, DOE used the
regions as defined in Table III.3 and
Figure III.1. Regarding ACEEE’s
suggestion that DOE consider additional
analysis using other possible regional
boundaries if the consensus agreement
is not adopted, because DOE is adopting
standards consistent with the consensus
agreement in this rule, DOE does not see
a compelling reason to conduct such
analyses. DOE notes that the 5,000 HDD
threshold is supported by most of the
interested parties, including ACEEE.
DOE further notes that the 5,000 HDD
threshold would provide benefits in
terms of minimizing the difference
between the regional boundaries for
central air conditioners/heat pumps and
furnaces. Harmonizing boundaries, to
the extent possible, may also facilitate
subsequent compliance and
enforcement efforts.
2. Central Air Conditioner and Heat
Pump Regions for Analysis
To evaluate regional standards for
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps in the preliminary analysis,
37429
DOE used the regions listed in Table
III.4 and Figure III.2. For cooling
equipment performance, the annual
number of operating hours and relative
humidity during those operating hours
are the most important regional
variations. DOE established two regions
(i.e., a ‘‘hot-dry’’ region and a ‘‘hothumid’’ region) in the south based upon
these factors, in addition to a ‘‘rest of
country’’ region (i.e., northern region),
composed of the remaining States. The
southern limit of the northern region
was approximately based on whether a
State’s annual HDD average was above
or below 4,500 HDD, and the division
between the hot-humid and hot-dry
regions was determined from analysis of
typical meteorological year (TMY3)
weather data.19 TMY3 weather data are
sets of typical hourly values of solar
radiation and meteorological elements
developed for a one-year span for
selected locations based on long-term
historical data. The selection of regions
for the preliminary analysis was
discussed in detail in Appendix 7C of
the preliminary TSD.
TABLE III.4—PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS PROPOSED REGIONS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDARDS
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Northern region states
(rest of country)
Southern region states
(hot-humid)
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Southwestern region states
(hot-dry)
Arizona
California
Nevada
New Mexico
19 S. Wilcox and W. Marion, Users Manual for
TMY3 Data Sets, NREL/TP–581–43156 (May 2008).
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In response to DOE’s request for
comment on the regions used in the
preliminary analysis for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, several
stakeholders submitted comments.
HARDI, Southern, and Ingersoll Rand
stated that the regions defined in the
consensus agreement should be used
instead of those in Table III.4. This
suggested change would necessitate
moving Delaware, the District of
Columbia, Maryland, Kentucky, and
Virginia into the southern hot-humid
region. (CAC: HARDI, No. 56 at p. 4;
Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p.4; Southern,
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 33;
HARDI, No. 56 at p. 4) Southern also
remarked that the regional boundaries
for central air conditioners and heat
pumps and furnaces should be the same
to avoid unnecessary complexity for
manufacturers and public confusion.
(CAC: Southern, No. 73 at p. 2) ACEEE
expressed views similar to those of
HARDI, Southern, and Ingersoll Rand
and further warned that the confusion
and complexity associated with
differing regional boundaries could lead
to inadvertent non-compliance. (CAC:
ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 3) Conversely, EEI
commented that Nevada should be
moved to the ‘‘rest of country’’ region
for heating efficiency requirements and
the hot-dry region for cooling efficiency
requirements because 90 percent of the
State is located in climate zone 5, as
specified in Figure 2 of 10 CFR 430,
subpart B, appendix M . (CAC: EEI, No.
75 at p. 3)
In response to these comments, DOE
agrees that a unified regional allocation
of States for both central air
conditioners and heat pumps and
furnaces would provide key benefits. As
mentioned in section III.A, similar
manufacturers produce these products
and use the same distribution network.
Using the same regional allocation of
States, as compared to the ‘‘rest of
country’’ national standard, would be
easier for manufacturers and
distributors to implement and would
also help to minimize consumer
confusion. Additionally, regional
standards may shift enforcement from
the manufacturer to the point of sale or
place of installation, and a single
boundary between regions would
reduce the motivation for noncompliance as well as simplify the
overall enforcement of regional
standards. Of course, there would be
some differentiation, given that there is
only one regional standard for furnaces,
but two regional standards for central
air conditioners and heat pumps.
Nevertheless, DOE believes that there
would still be benefits with
harmonizing the States included in the
northern region across these products.
To this end, DOE agrees with the
comments recommending use of the
regions in the consensus agreement for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
and furnaces. Doing so would also align
the boundary of the northern region for
the central air conditioners and
furnaces. The regions selected for the
direct final rule analyses for central air
conditioners and heat pumps are shown
in Table III.5 and Figure III.3.
TABLE III.5—REGIONS FOR ANALYSIS OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDARDS
Northern region states
(rest of country)
Alaska
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(hot-humid)*
Alabama
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Southwestern region states
(hot-dry)*
Arizona
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37431
TABLE III.5—REGIONS FOR ANALYSIS OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDARDS—Continued
Northern region states
(rest of country)
Colorado
Connecticut
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Southeastern region states
(hot-humid)*
Arkansas
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Mississippi
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Southwestern region states
(hot-dry)*
California
Nevada
New Mexico
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* The combined southeastern and southwestern regions for central air conditioners and heat pumps correspond to the southern region for
furnaces.
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3. Impacts on Market Participants and
Enforcement Issues
As described in section II.A of this
notice, DOE is required to evaluate the
impact of introducing regional
standards on consumers, manufacturers,
and other market participants, including
product distributors, dealers,
contractors, and installers. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(6)(D)) Chapter 17 of the
preliminary TSD for central air
conditioners and heat pumps details
DOE’s preliminary analysis on the
potential impacts of regional standards
on market participants other than
manufacturers and consumers for
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps and residential furnaces.
(However, impacts on manufacturers
and consumers were fully addressed in
a manner consistent with any other
energy conservation standards
rulemaking.) The analysis focuses on
the unique burdens associated with
introducing differentiated energy
conservation standards based on
geography. The analysis does not
incorporate the impact of more-stringent
energy conservation standards on
market participants, only the impact of
multiple geographic standards, because
the impacts of more-stringent standards
would occur regardless of whether
differentiated regional standards are
promulgated.
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a. Impacts on Additional Market
Participants
Chapter 17 of the preliminary TSD
began by identifying the primary market
participants, identified as distributors,
contractors, and general contractors. It
described their basic business models
and assesses how additional regional
standards may impact those models.
The chapter then investigated potential
non-enforcement impacts on
distributors, contractors, and general
contractors. Finally, the chapter
provided two quantitative analyses
looking at the key changes that
distributors may face as a result of
regional standards: (1) A distributor
inventory impact analysis, and (2) a
distributor markup impact analysis.
HARDI voiced concern about DOE’s
preliminary distributor inventory
impact analysis, citing its belief that
distributors located within border
regions would have to carry two lines of
stock. As a result, HARDI predicts at
least a 5-percent stock increase for these
distributors. (CAC: HARDI, No. 56 at p.
7) In response, DOE’s inventory analysis
does assume that distributors located
along border regions will need to carry
two lines of stock, as indicated by
HARDI, and, thus, requires some
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additional safety stock. In the absence of
additional data supporting more or less
severe inventory impacts, for the direct
final rule, DOE has not revised its
estimate of a 2-percent inventory impact
for the reference case. However, the
impacts of inventory changes ranging
from 0 percent to 10 percent are
considered in Chapter 17 of the direct
final rule TSD as a sensitivity analysis.
Regarding the inventory change
analysis, ACEEE stated that distributors
located along a border region may find
it more cost-effective to stock fewer
product models and meet customer
demand by shipping the next higherefficiency model at the same price as the
lower-efficiency model under regional
standards. (FUR: ACEEE, No. 1.2.006 at
p. 103) ACEEE suggested that this
hypothetical substitution effect would
reduce the additional inventory
necessary for distributors to meet
customer demand under regional
standards. Based on interviews with
distributors and DOE’s understanding of
the HVAC industry, DOE considers such
a scenario unlikely. Such a substitution
would remove upsell opportunities for
distributors and potentially
commoditize higher-margin products.
Furthermore, not having the units
desired by some contractors may
jeopardize relationships with at least
some customers. DOE does not expect
such a strategy to be the lowest-cost
option for distributors along the border
region.
HARDI contested the four shipment
scenarios detailed in the distribution
inventory impact analysis discussed in
chapter 17 of the preliminary TSD.
Citing the experience following the
change in central air conditioner energy
conservation standards from 10 SEER to
13 SEER in 2006, HARDI asserted that
an impact of increasing standards is a
decrease in shipments due to
substitution effects. (FUR: HARDI, No.
1.3.016 at p. 7) In chapter 17 of the TSD,
DOE analyzed the impact of
differentiated regional standards rather
than the impacts of higher standards.
The analysis is intended to model
changes in distributor inventory
resulting from bimodal product
demand, and not the impacts resulting
from higher standards. However, DOE
notes that the impacts of higher
standards on replacement rates and
product orders for the industry are
accounted for and modeled in DOE’s
shipments analysis conducted for this
direct final rule. A reduction in product
replacement is reflected in the NIA and
in the industry net present value
analysis presented in the MIA.
Additional comments were received
regarding the analysis of distributor
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markup impact analysis. These
comments are addressed in markups
portion of this document in section
IV.D.
b. Enforcement Issues
Although the preliminary TSD for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
did not analyze enforcement issues, it
did discuss potential enforcement
impacts on market participants in
chapter 17, section 17.4, of the
preliminary TSD. In addition, in section
II.A of the RAP for furnaces, DOE
described a number of enforcement
options and requested data on how, if at
all, the enforcement options would
increase compliance or other costs.
Multiple manufacturers and trade
associations commented on enforcement
issues discussed in either the
preliminary TSD for central air
conditioners and heat pumps or the
RAP for furnaces. ACCA, AHRI, and
HARDI all emphasized the need for
strong enforcement to ensure fair
competition in the marketplace and to
mitigate risk of diluting intended energy
savings. (FUR: ACCA, No. 1.3.007 at p.
2) (CAC: AHRI, No. 67 at p. 4; HARDI,
No. 70 at p. 2) HARDI emphasized the
complexity of enforcing regional
standards and explained that their
members (i.e., the industry’s
distributors) are not equipped to bear
the burden of ensuring that product
installations are occurring within the
boundaries of regional standards. (FUR:
HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at pp. 4–7)
Manufacturers, including Lennox,
Rheem, and Ingersoll Rand; trade
groups, including ACCA, AGA, ARI,
EEI, and HARDI; advocacy groups,
including ACEEE, NCLC, and NRDC;
and utilities, including Pacific Gas and
Electric, Southern California Gas
Company, San Diego Gas and Electric,
and Southern California Edison, all
commented on the effectiveness,
viability, and complexity of various
enforcement mechanisms. (FUR:
Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at pp. 2–4; Rheem,
Public Meeting Transcript No. 1.2.006 at
p. 80; AGA, No. 1.3.010 at pp. 2–3; EEI,
No. 1.3.015 at p. 4; ACEEE, No. 1.3.009
at pp. 4–5; NCLC, 1.3.019 at p. 9; NRDC,
No. 1.3.020 at pp. 7–8) (CAC: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 66 at pp. 7–8; ACCA, No. 7
at p. 3; HARDI, No. 56 at p. 6; PG&E,
No. 17 at pp. 3–4)
DOE recognizes the challenges of
regional standards enforcement and
continues to investigate the most
effective means of meeting those
challenges. DOE will incorporate all
feedback into the enforcement
rulemaking it will conduct within 90
days of the issuance of this direct final
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rule establishing regional standards, as
required by 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(6)(G)(ii).
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E. Standby Mode and Off Mode
As noted in section II.A of this direct
final rule, any final rule for amended or
new energy conservation standards that
is published on or after July 1, 2010
must address standby mode and off
mode energy use. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg))
As a result, DOE has analyzed and is
regulating the standby mode and off
mode electrical energy consumption for
furnaces and off mode energy
consumption for central air conditioners
and heat pumps. These provisions are
addressed in further detail immediately
below.
1. Furnaces
AFUE, the statutory metric for
furnaces, does not incorporate standby
mode or off mode use of electricity,
although it already fully addresses use
in these modes of fossil fuels by gas and
oil-fired furnaces. In the October 2010
test procedure final rule for furnaces,
DOE determined that incorporating
standby mode and off mode electricity
consumption into a single standard for
residential furnaces is not feasible. 75
FR 64621, 64626–27 (Oct. 20, 2010).
DOE concluded that a metric that
integrates standby mode and off mode
electricity consumption into AFUE is
not technically feasible, because the
standby mode and off mode energy
usage, when measured, is essentially
lost in practical terms due to rounding
conventions for certifying furnace
compliance with Federal energy
conservation standards. Id. Therefore, in
this notice, DOE is adopting amended
furnace standards that are AFUE levels,
which exclude standby mode and off
mode electricity use, and DOE is also
adopting separate standards that are
maximum wattage (W) levels to address
the standby mode and off mode
electrical energy use of furnaces. DOE
also presents corresponding TSLs for
energy consumption in standby mode
and off mode. DOE has decided to use
a maximum wattage requirement to
regulate standby mode and off mode for
furnaces. DOE believes using an
annualized metric could add
unnecessary complexities, such as
trying to estimate an assumed number of
hours that a furnace typically spends in
standby mode. Instead, DOE believes
that a maximum wattage standard is the
most straightforward metric for
regulating standby mode and off mode
energy consumption of furnaces and
will result in the least amount of
industry and consumer confusion.
DOE is using the metrics just
described—AFUE and W—in the
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amended energy conservation standards
it adopts in this rulemaking for
furnaces. This approach satisfies the
mandate of 42 U.S.C. 6295(gg) that
amended standards address standby
mode and off mode energy use. The
various analyses performed by DOE to
evaluate minimum standards for
standby mode and off mode electrical
energy consumption for furnaces are
discussed further in section IV.E of this
direct final rule.
a. Standby Mode and Off Mode for
Weatherized Gas and Weatherized OilFired Furnaces
DOE did not find any weatherized
furnaces (both gas and oil-fired)
available on the market that are not sold
as part of a single package air
conditioner or a ‘‘dual fuel’’ single
package heat pump and furnace system.
In this direct final rule, DOE is adopting
new energy conservation standards for
the maximum allowable average off
mode power consumption (PW,OFF) for
single package air conditioners and
single package heat pumps to account
for the power consumed in off mode,
and DOE has already determined that
the existing test procedures for central
air conditioners and heat pumps
account for standby mode power
consumption within the SEER rating.
DOE notes that the proposed test
procedure provisions for measuring off
mode power consumption of central air
conditioners and heat pumps and the
existing test procedure provisions for
calculating SEER do not provide
instructions for disconnecting certain
components (e.g., igniter, gas valve) that
are only used for furnace operation in
single package units. As a result, DOE
believes that because weatherized
furnaces on the market are
manufactured and sold as part of single
package air conditioners and heat
pumps, and because all standby mode
and off mode energy consumption for
single package air conditioners and heat
pumps is accounted for by PW,OFF and
SEER, there is no need to adopt separate
standby mode and off mode standards
for weatherized gas or weatherized oilfired furnaces.
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode for
Electric Furnaces
As discussed in detail in section
IV.A.2.a of this direct final rule, DOE
believes that any improvements to
electric furnaces to improve the AFUE
of these products would have a de
minimis energy-savings potential
because the efficiency of electric
furnaces already approaches 100percent AFUE. However, DOE notes that
the AFUE rating for electric furnaces
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does not include the electrical power
used in standby mode and off mode. As
a result, DOE performed an analysis of
potential standby mode and off mode
energy conservation standards for
electric furnaces, and is adopting
standards for these products in this
direct final rule. The approach for
analyzing standby mode and off mode
energy conservation standards for
electric furnaces is described
throughout section IV of this direct final
rule.
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode for
Mobile Home Oil-Fired Furnaces
DOE is not considering amended
AFUE standards for mobile home oilfired furnaces due to a de minimis
potential for energy savings, as
discussed in detail in section IV.A.2.a of
this notice. However, in order to satisfy
the statutory provision in EPCA for
establishing standby mode and off mode
standards, and to keep a level playing
field for all products, DOE examined
potential standby mode and off mode
standards for mobile home oil-fired
furnaces.
To analyze potential standby mode
and off mode standards for mobile home
oil-fired furnaces, DOE examined
specification sheets and manufacturer
literature to identify components that
are present and would consume standby
power (e.g., transformer, burner). DOE
determined that these components in
mobile home oil-fired furnaces are
largely the same as the standby mode
and off mode energy-consuming
components found in non-weatherized
oil-fired furnaces. Therefore, DOE
estimated that a mobile home oil-fired
furnace would have the same standby
mode and off mode energy consumption
as a non-weatherized oil-fired furnace,
and it did not conduct separate analysis
for this product. Accordingly, DOE is
adopting standards for non-weatherized
oil-fired furnaces and mobile home oilfired furnaces at the same level in
today’s direct final rule. The standby
mode and off mode analysis for nonweatherized oil-fired furnaces (which is
also applicable to mobile home oil-fired
furnaces) is discussed throughout
section IV of this direct final rule.
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, the standby mode is in effect
when the system is on but the
compressor is not running (i.e., when
the system is not actively heating or
cooling but the compressor is primed to
be activated by the thermostat). Thus,
the standby mode for central air
conditioners functions during the
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cooling season and for heat pumps
during both the cooling and heating
seasons. Correspondingly, the off mode
generally occurs for air conditioners
during all non-cooling seasons and for
heat pumps during the ‘‘shoulder
seasons’’ (i.e., fall and spring) when
consumers neither heat nor cool their
homes. The SEER and HSPF metrics
already account for standby mode but
not off mode energy use, because off
mode energy use occurs outside of the
seasons to which these descriptors
apply. However, incorporation of off
mode into these descriptors would
mean that they would no longer be
seasonal descriptors. Thus, because
EPCA requires use of these descriptors
for central air conditioners and heat
pumps (see 42 U.S.C. 6291(22) and
6295(d)), it would not be feasible for
DOE to incorporate off mode energy use
into a single set of standards for both
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
Additionally, DOE has concluded that a
metric that integrates off mode
electricity consumption into SEER is not
technically feasible because the off
mode energy usage is significantly lower
than active mode operation and, when
measured, it is essentially lost in
practical terms due to the fact that
manufacturers’ ratings of SEER are
typically presented to consumers with
one or zero decimal places. Therefore,
in this notice, DOE is adopting for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
standards that are SEER and HSPF
levels (which exclude off mode energy
use), and DOE is also adopting separate
standards that are maximum wattage
(W) levels to address the off mode
energy use of central air conditioners
and heat pumps. DOE also presents
corresponding TSLs for energy
consumption in off mode. DOE has
determined that a wattage requirement
is appropriate, because it avoids
unnecessary complexities and
assumptions that may be created by
using an annualized metric. The use of
a wattage requirement is consistent with
the approach used to regulate standby
mode and off mode energy consumption
in furnaces.
DOE is using the metrics just
described—SEER, HSPF, and W—in the
amended energy conservation standards
it adopts in this rulemaking for central
air conditioners and heat pumps. This
approach satisfies the mandate of 42
U.S.C. 6295(gg) that amended standards
address standby mode and off mode
energy use. The various analyses
performed by DOE to evaluate minimum
standards for off mode electrical energy
consumption for central air conditioners
and heat pumps are discussed further
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throughout section IV of this direct final
rule.
a. Off Mode for Space-Constrained Air
Conditioners and Heat Pumps
As discussed in section III.G.2.b, DOE
decided not to amend the existing SEER
or HSPF standards for the spaceconstrained product classes of central
air conditioners and heat pumps,
because the existing standard is both the
baseline and max-tech efficiency level.
However, DOE analyzed these products
to determine appropriate off mode
energy conservation standards. Based on
teardowns and manufacturer literature,
DOE determined that the spaceconstrained product classes have the
same components contributing to off
mode power consumption as splitsystem air conditioners and heat pumps.
Consequently, DOE assumed that the off
mode power consumption for the spaceconstrained products classes is the same
as for the split-system product classes,
and DOE believes that the off mode
analysis for the split-system product
classes is representative of the spaceconstrained products. Therefore, DOE
adopted its engineering analysis of off
mode energy consumption for splitsystem air conditioners and heat pumps
for use in its engineering analysis of the
off mode electrical energy consumption
of space-constrained air conditioners
and heat pumps. As with all other
product classes, the off mode analysis
for space-constrained products is
described in further detail throughout
section IV of this direct final rule.
F. Test Procedures
As noted above, DOE’s current test
procedures for central air conditioners
and heat pumps, and for furnaces,
appear at 10 CFR part 430, subpart B,
appendices M and N, respectively.
Moreover, EPCA, as amended by EISA
2007, requires DOE to amend its test
procedures for all covered products,
including those for furnaces and central
air conditioners and heat pumps, to
include measurement of standby mode
and off mode energy consumption,
except where current test procedures
already fully address such energy
consumption. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(2))
Because test procedure rulemakings
were ongoing to address this statutory
mandate regarding standby mode and
off mode energy consumption during
the course of the current standards
rulemaking, a number of test procedure
issues were raised in this rulemaking,
particularly in terms of how test
procedure amendments could impact
standard levels. The following
discussion addresses these comments
and explains developments related to
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amended test procedures for residential
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps.
1. Furnaces
DOE’s existing test procedure for gas
and oil-fired furnaces accounted for
fossil fuel consumption in the active,
standby, and off modes, and for
electrical consumption in the active
mode (although active mode electrical
consumption is not included in the
AFUE rating for gas and oil-fired
products). For electric furnaces, DOE’s
existing test procedure accounted for
active mode electrical energy
consumption. However, the test
procedures for gas, oil-fired, and electric
furnaces did not address standby mode
and off mode electrical energy
consumption. Therefore, DOE issued a
NOPR in which it proposed
modifications to its existing furnace test
procedures to include the measurement
of standby mode and off mode
electricity use. 74 FR 36959 (July 27,
2009) (hereafter referred to as the ‘‘July
2009 test procedure NOPR’’). DOE held
a public meeting at DOE headquarters in
Washington, DC on August 18, 2009, to
receive oral comments on the July 2009
test procedure NOPR. DOE also sought
and received written comments from
interested parties.
Subsequent to the July 2009 test
procedure NOPR, DOE issued a
supplemental notice of proposed
rulemaking (SNOPR) for the purpose of
adding an integrated metric that
incorporates standby mode and off
mode energy consumption into the
statutorily-identified efficiency
descriptor, AFUE. The SNOPR was
published in the Federal Register on
April 5, 2010. 75 FR 17075. In response
to the April 2010 test procedure SNOPR,
DOE received a number of comments
that opposed both the need for an
integrated metric and the possibility of
regulating by such a metric. In sum,
these comments suggested that DOE
misinterpreted the statute in terms of
requiring the integration of standby
mode and off mode energy consumption
into the AFUE metric. Commenters
further suggested that regulating by an
integrated metric would be counter to
the intent of EISA 2007; instead, these
commenters urged DOE to regulate
standby mode and off mode for these
products by using a separate standard,
as contemplated by EISA 2007, in
situations where an integrated metric
would not be technically feasible. DOE
also received similar comments
regarding incorporating standby mode
and off mode electrical consumption
into AFUE in response to the RAP for
residential furnaces, which are
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summarized below. In addition, DOE
received comments relating to the AFUE
test procedure in general (i.e., not
specifically about the incorporation of
standby mode and off mode electrical
energy consumption into AFUE), which
are also discussed in the sections that
follow.
After considering the comments in
response the April 2010 test procedure
SNOPR and RAP (discussed below),
DOE published a final rule in the
Federal Register on October 20, 2010
that amended the test procedures for
furnaces and boilers to address standby
mode and off mode energy use of these
products. 75 FR 64621. In light of the
comments on the April 2010 test
procedure SNOPR and RAP, DOE
reconsidered the feasibility of an
integrated AFUE metric in the final rule
and abandoned its proposal in the April
2010 test procedure SNOPR that would
have integrated the standby mode and
off mode electrical energy consumption
into the existing AFUE test metric.
Accordingly, the final rule amended the
test procedure for residential furnaces
and boilers to include provisions for
separately measuring standby mode and
off mode. Id. at 64626–27.
a. AFUE Test Method Comment
Discussion
In response to the RAP for residential
furnaces, DOE received several
comments related to DOE’s test
procedure for determining the AFUE of
residential furnaces. ACEEE commented
that AFUE is an imperfect metric,
because for weatherized furnaces,20 a
unit operating at part load (i.e., at a
reduced input capacity less than the full
capacity) might deliver the same
comfort as it would at full load, but
using less energy (i.e., more efficiently).
However, since weatherized furnaces
must be kept non-condensing during
peak load operation, ACEEE stated that
the AFUE metric may not reflect the
efficiency benefit from part load
operation. (FUR: ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 159)
Ingersoll Rand stated that weatherized
furnaces have to be non-condensing
regardless of whether the furnace is
running at a lower input or at the peak
input [because these units are not
designed to handle corrosive
condensate]. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at pp. 159–160) In response, DOE
believes that two-stage and modulating
furnaces meet heating load requirements
20 Weatherized furnaces, unlike non-weatherized
furnaces, are designed to be installed outdoors. As
such, weatherized furnaces are often subjected to
harsh weather, including below freezing
temperatures, rain, snow, etc.
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more precisely by operating at a reduced
input rate for an extended period of
burner on-time, which might deliver the
same comfort using less energy as
ACEEE asserts. However, DOE also
notes that due to issues with condensate
freezing in weatherized gas furnaces,
products that are currently on the
market are typically designed so that
they will not condense during part-load
or full-load operation, as Ingersoll Rand
states. Even if a weatherized furnace
were designed with materials and
components to handle the corrosive
condensate, if that condensate freezes
while being drained, it will have a
significant adverse impact the
performance and reliability of the unit.
DOE notes that DOE’s existing AFUE
test procedure contains provisions for
two-stage and modulating operation in
furnaces, and DOE believes these
provisions are adequate for rating the
performance of weatherized furnaces. It
may be possible for DOE to consider
revisiting the provisions for testing the
AFUE of two-stage and modulating
weatherized furnaces in a future test
procedures rulemaking.
Proctor stated that in California, nonweatherized furnaces are installed in
attics, which get hot in the summer and
cold in the winter. As a result, AFUE
may not properly represent what
happens in the field, because jacket
losses (i.e., heat losses through the outer
covering of the furnace) may not be
accounted for in the AFUE test
procedure for non-weatherized furnaces.
(FUR: Proctor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 163–64) In
contrast, Ingersoll Rand commented that
the AFUE test for non-weatherized
furnaces does measure jacket losses,
because these furnaces are tested as
isolated combustion systems (meaning
they are assumed to be installed
indoors, but outside of the conditioned
space, such as in a garage or unheated
basement) with an assumed 45 degree
ambient temperature. Ingersoll Rand
noted that jacket losses in nonweatherized furnaces are accounted for
and multiplied by 1.7 in the AFUE
calculation. Ingersoll Rand further
stated that weatherized furnaces have a
3.3 multiplier for jacket losses, which
accounts for the effects of wind, rain,
and other factors affecting the
performance of an outdoor furnace.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 164) In
response, DOE agrees with Ingersoll
Rand, and notes that the DOE test
procedure requires jacket losses to be
adjusted by a 1.7 multiplier and a 3.3
multiplier for all non-weatherized
furnaces and weatherized furnaces,
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respectively, in order to account for
jacket losses that may occur in the field.
Proctor also remarked that the current
standards (which are set in terms of
AFUE) are unrepresentative of actual
system performance in the home and
produce contrary results, by assigning
efficiency ratings which are not
representative of ratings achieved in the
field. Proctor stated that in certain rare
situations, the current rating system is
such that products’ tested efficiency
ratings may be reversed in comparison
to their actual field performance (i.e., a
product with a higher AFUE rating may
actually perform less efficiently than a
product with a lower AFUE rating in
certain situations). (FUR: Proctor, FDMS
No. 0002 at p. 2) The energy efficiency
ratings for furnaces are developed using
DOE’s test procedure and sampling
plans at the point of manufacture. For
residential furnaces, DOE believes that
requiring certification at the point of
manufacture is the best way to capture
the energy use information and
variability of the installations that can
be experienced in the field. Given the
expense of performing tests on the
products and the breadth of the
installation network for these products,
testing and certification based on field
installations could be significantly more
difficult. DOE believes that its test
methods represent product performance
in the field; however, DOE agrees with
Proctor in that many factors experienced
in the field can alter the performance of
the furnace (e.g., installation location,
external static pressure). Consequently,
DOE’s analysis takes into account many
of the variations experienced in the field
on the energy use of the product in the
life-cycle cost analysis.
Proctor argued that heating
performance and heating fan
performance are rated at external static
pressures that are a function of furnace
heating capacity and are significantly
lower than those found in typical
residential duct systems, resulting in the
furnace blower moving less air or
having higher watt draw, or both, when
installed. Proctor claimed that these
effects reduce the field efficiency of the
furnace and that the type of fan motor
believed by consumers and HVAC
contractors to be the highest efficiency
model performs significantly worse at
typical field static pressures than at the
rating condition. (FUR: Proctor, FDMS
No. 0002 at p. 3) The current DOE test
procedure assumes a given value for the
external static pressure. While DOE
acknowledges that the external static
pressure of an HVAC system is, in part,
a function of the ductwork, DOE
believes variations in external static
pressures experienced in the field that
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impact the efficiency of the furnace fan
are outside the scope of coverage of this
rulemaking. This issue will be
considered in DOE’s separate
rulemaking for furnace fans.
Additionally, DOE acknowledges that
the blower motor responds to the
differences in external static pressure
between the ductwork in the field and
the pressure specified by the DOE test
procedure by increasing or decreasing
power draw as needed to maintain
consistent airflow. However, the DOE
test procedure to calculate AFUE does
not account for the type or performance
of the blower, and therefore, the rated
AFUE is not impacted by the blower
power draw. As noted above, there is a
separate rulemaking under way to
address the efficiency of furnace fans.
DOE is also developing a test procedure
for furnace fans in a separate
rulemaking, in which DOE will examine
the appropriate external static pressure
at which to rate the air handling
performance of the furnace.
Proctor also commented that the
furnace heating performance and air
handling performance should be rated
separately because some furnace
components are related to heating,
while others are related to moving
household air. Further, Proctor stated
that the furnace rating standard should
include the energy use of heatingrelated components, such as the igniter,
while components that are not directly
related to heating should be included in
the air handling rating. (FUR: Proctor,
FDMS No. 0002 at p. 4) In response,
DOE first notes that this rulemaking to
examine amending the minimum AFUE
standards addresses the heating
performance of furnaces, and the air
handling performance will be addressed
separately in a furnace fans rulemaking,
as Proctor recommends. In response to
Proctor’s assertion that the furnace
heating performance standard should
include the use of heating-related
components such as the igniter, DOE
notes that it is required under 42 U.S.C.
6291(22) to use AFUE as the rating
metric for the fuel performance of
furnaces. DOE incorporates by reference
the definition in section 3 of ANSI/
ASHRAE 103–1993 of ‘‘annual fuel
utilization efficiency’’ as ‘‘the ratio of
annual output energy to annual input
energy, which includes any nonheating-season pilot input loss and, for
gas or oil-fired furnaces or boilers, does
not include electric energy.’’ 10 CFR 430
subpart B, appendix N, section 2.0.
Under this definition, which captures
how efficiently the fuel is converted to
useful heat, electrical components such
as electronic ignition and the blower
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motor are outside of the AFUE rating
metric coverage. Components in the
blower assembly will be covered in
DOE’s current energy conservation
standards rulemaking for residential
furnace fans.
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode
As noted above, DOE received
numerous comments from interested
parties regarding the approach to
regulating standby mode and off mode
energy consumption proposed in the
furnaces RAP. In particular, the
comments received pertained to the
metric that would be adopted for such
regulation.
ACEEE, the CA IOUs, EEI, HARDI,
Lennox, AHRI, NRDC, APPA, Ingersoll
Rand, and the Joint Stakeholders
opposed the proposal to integrate
standby mode and off mode electrical
power into a new metric and instead
supported a separate metric for
regulating standby mode and off mode
electrical energy consumption in
furnaces. (FUR: ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 130–131;
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at pp. 1–2; CA
IOUs, No. 1.3.017 at p. 3; EEI, No.
1.3.015 at pp. 4–5; HARDI, No. 1.3.016
at p. 8; Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p. 3;
NRDC, No. 1.3.020 at p. 7; APPA, No.
1.3.011 at p. 4; AHRI, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 132–133;
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 2; Joint
Stakeholders, No. 1.3.012 at pp. 3–4)
EEI qualified its support for a separate
descriptor for standby mode and off
mode electrical energy consumption,
stating that it supports a separate
descriptor for standby mode and off
mode efficiency as long as furnaces
would be required to provide
information about standby mode and off
mode fossil fuel consumption as well.
EEI asserted that if DOE looks at electric
energy attributable to standby mode, it
should also look at fossil fuel energy
consumption attributable to standby
mode just as rigorously. (FUR: EEI, No.
1.3.015 at pp. 4–5) In response, DOE
notes that in the final rule for residential
furnaces and boilers test procedures,
published in the Federal Register on
October 20, 2010, DOE concluded that
the AFUE metric comprehensively
accounts for fossil fuel energy
consumption over a full-year cycle,
thereby satisfying the fossil fuel portion
of the EISA 2007 requirement to
regulate standby mode and off mode
energy consumption. 75 FR 64621.
Lennox supported the use of the ESO
value that DOE proposed in the July 27,
2009 test procedures NOPR (74 FR
36959) as the metric for setting standby
mode and off mode standards. (FUR:
Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p. 3) In today’s
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direct final rule, DOE is using the
standby mode and off mode power
consumption metrics (PW,SB and PW,OFF,
respectively), as defined in the October
2010 test procedure final rule 21 (74 FR
64621, 64632 (Oct. 20, 2010)), as the test
metric for regulating standby mode and
off mode power consumption. As noted
in section III.E of today’s notice, DOE
believes this metric will provide a more
straightforward approach for comparing
the standby mode and off mode energy
consumption of furnaces, because it
does not include assumptions related to
the amount of time spent in standby
mode or off mode, as an annual metric,
such as ESO, would require.
ACEEE, EEI, HARDI, and Lennox
stated that DOE should not use an
integrated AFUE metric (one which
includes standby mode and off mode
electrical energy consumption, along
with active mode energy consumption)
to regulate standby mode and off mode
electrical energy consumption because
doing so would require rerating existing
furnaces, which could cause existing
ratings to decrease and could lead to
confusion in the marketplace. (FUR:
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at pp. 1–2; EEI,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at pp. 134–135; EEI, No. 1.3.015 at pp.
4–5; HARDI, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 1.2.006 at p. 138; HARDI, No.
1.3.016 at p. 8; Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at
p. 3) Further, AHRI noted that every
program that provides incentives for
people to buy more-efficient furnaces
would have to change its descriptor to
avoid widespread confusion in the
marketplace, and therefore, AHRI
argued that combining metrics is not
feasible. (FUR: AHRI, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 136–137)
Ingersoll Rand added that adoption of
an integrated metric would lead to
confusion in the marketplace by making
higher-capacity furnaces appear more
efficient, because standby power is not
a function of heating capacity. (FUR:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 2) DOE
believes these points are valid.
Ultimately, in the test procedure
rulemaking, DOE concluded in the final
rule that it would not be technically
feasible to integrate standby mode and
off mode electrical energy consumption
into AFUE, because ‘‘the standby mode
and off mode energy usage, when
measured, is essentially lost in practical
terms due to the fact that manufacturers’
21 In this direct final rule, DOE is changing the
nomenclature for the standby mode and off mode
power consumption metrics for furnaces from those
in the furnace and boiler test procedure final rule
published on October 20, 2010. 75 FR 64621. DOE
is renaming the PSB and POFF metrics as PW,SB and
PW,OFF, respectively. However, the substance of
these metrics remains unchanged.
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ratings of AFUE are presented to the
nearest whole number.’’ 75 FR 64621,
64627 (Oct. 20, 2010). For further details
on DOE’s reasoning for not integrating
standby mode and off mode electrical
energy consumption into AFUE, please
consult the October 2010 test procedure
final rule. Id. at 64626–27.
ACEEE, NRDC, APPA, and the Joint
Stakeholders observed that, due to the
rounding provisions specified for the
AFUE descriptor, standby mode and off
mode electrical energy consumption
would effectively be lost in an
integrated metric. More specifically,
these parties reasoned that the
magnitude of active mode fuel
consumption would obscure the
standby mode and off mode electrical
energy consumption, thereby providing
manufacturers with little or no incentive
to reduce standby energy consumption.
(FUR: ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 130–131;
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at pp. 1–2; NRDC,
No. 1.3.020 at p. 7; APPA, No. 1.3.011
at p. 4; Joint Stakeholders, No. 1.3.012
at pp. 3–4) The CA IOUs further
asserted that it is not feasible from a
testing and enforcement perspective to
regulate standby mode and off mode
electrical energy consumption when it
may be less than the rounding error of
the regulated metric, and suggested that
DOE would need to regulate an
integrated AFUE metric to a hundredth
of a percent in order to accurately
capture differences in standby mode
and off mode energy use. (FUR: CA
IOUs, No. 1.3.017 at p. 3) Additionally,
according to Ingersoll Rand, the
homeowner would not be able to
determine how much power is used in
standby mode, and an integrated metric
would be unlikely to focus furnace
redesigns on providing actual reduction
in electrical power usage, because the
standby power usage could be masked
with small improvements in heating
efficiency. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 2) DOE considered these
observations to be valid points, and they
played a role in the Department’s
decision to abandon an integrated AFUE
metric in favor of a separate descriptor
for standby mode and off mode
electrical energy consumption. Again,
for further details on DOE test
procedures for measuring standby mode
and off mode energy consumption,
please consult the October 2010 test
procedure final rule. 75 FR 64621 (Oct.
20, 2010).
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
DOE has determined that its existing
test procedures for central air
conditioners and heat pumps address
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energy use in standby mode, but not in
off mode. As explained above in section
II.B, off mode occurs for air conditioners
during the non-cooling seasons and for
heat pumps during the ‘‘shoulder
seasons’’ (i.e., fall and spring).
Therefore, in a test procedure NOPR
published in the Federal Register on
June 2, 2010, DOE proposed to modify
to its existing test procedures for central
air conditioners and heat pumps by
adding provisions to determine off
mode energy use. 75 FR 31224 (hereafter
referred to as ‘‘the June 2010 test
procedure NOPR’’). In the June 2010 test
procedure NOPR, DOE also proposed to
alter its existing test procedures by
adopting: (1) New testing and
calculation methods relevant to regional
standards for these products,
specifically SEER Hot-Dry; (2) a limited
number of other new testing methods;
(3) a new calculation for the
determination of sensible heat ratio,22
which could be used to assess the
dehumidification performance of an air
conditioner or heat pump; and (4)
modifications and clarifications of
certain calculations, testing methods,
test conditions and other provisions
currently in the test procedure. Id.
Similar to off mode for furnaces, DOE
concluded that it would not be
technically feasible to integrate off mode
electrical energy consumption into
SEER or HSPF, because SEER and HSPF
are seasonal descriptors, not annualized
descriptors, and the off mode energy
usage, when measured, is essentially
lost in practical terms due to the fact
that it is a very small portion of overall
electrical energy consumption. DOE
held a public meeting on June 11, 2010
at DOE headquarters in Washington, DC,
to receive oral comments on its
proposal, and it also sought and
received numerous written comments.
Given the interrelated and tandem
nature of these two rulemaking
proceedings, during the public meeting
for the preliminary TSD and in
subsequent written comments,
interested parties also commented on
the revision of the central air
conditioner and heat pump test
procedure. Several comments were
related to standby mode and off mode
energy consumption. ACEEE
commented that DOE must determine
whether any products use crankcase
heaters and whether such use is standby
mode or off mode. (CAC: ACEEE, No. 72
at p. 3) In response, DOE believes that
22 ‘‘Sensible heat ratio’’ is the relative
contribution of an air conditioner or heat pump
which reduces the dry bulb temperature of the
ambient air to the cooling output which reduces the
moisture content of the ambient air.
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37437
off mode power exists for central air
conditioners and heat pumps in the
form of controls, certain types of fan
motors, and refrigerant crankcase
heaters, so DOE worked to develop
appropriate standards for off mode
power for each class of equipment based
on how the components that contribute
to a unit’s off mode power consumption
are treated in the test procedure.
Ingersoll Rand and EEI commented that
a standard for off mode energy
consumption is not needed, because the
existing ratings (SEER and HSPF)
already account for off mode power.
(CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p. 8;
CAC: EEI, No. 75 at p. 3) DOE agrees
that SEER and HSPF already account for
off mode and standby mode energy
consumption of an air conditioning
system during the cooling season and,
for heat pumps, during the heating
season. However, the energy consumed
by an air conditioner during the heating
and shoulder seasons, while the unit
sits idle but powered, is not currently
accounted for within the DOE test
procedure. Similarly, the energy
consumed by a heat pump during the
shoulder season, while the unit sits idle
but powered, is not currently accounted
for within the DOE test procedure.
A number of interested parties
commented during the public meeting
that DOE should use the combination of
SEER and energy efficiency ratio (EER)
rather than SEER Hot-Dry as a metric for
hot-dry climates because EER is more
indicative of performance than SEER
Hot-Dry and also more straightforward
to calculate and understand. (CAC:
ACEEE, Public Meeting Transcript at
pp. 93, 95, 103; CAC: AHRI, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 94; CAC: PGE,
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 97; CAC:
Southern, Public Meeting Transcript at
p. 100; CAC: Rheem, No. 76 at p. 6) EEI
expressed concern that incorporating a
SEER Hot-Dry metric would
significantly change the results of the
preliminary TSD because a new
efficiency metric would result in
different energy and cost savings to the
consumer. (CAC: EEI, No. 75 at p. 5)
DOE agrees that using a SEER Hot-Dry
metric is unnecessary because the
combination of SEER and EER is more
representative of system performance.
As discussed in section III.B.2, DOE has
determined that it can consider dual
metrics (i.e., SEER and EER) when
considering recommendations arising
out of a consensus agreement. For its
analysis of potential standards apart
from those recommended in the
consensus agreement, DOE chose not to
use the SEER Hot-Dry metric, which it
had been considering, to characterize
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equipment performance in the hot-dry
region, because DOE did not have
sufficient information on how product
costs and overall system performance
might change if a SEER Hot-Dry metric
were used. Therefore, DOE continued to
use the current SEER rating metric for
analysis of those potential amended
standards.
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a. Proposed Test Procedure
Amendments
As mentioned above, DOE proposed
amendments to its test procedure for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
to measure off mode power
consumption during the heating and
shoulder seasons for central air
conditioners and the shoulder season
for heat pumps. 75 FR 31224, 31238–39
(June 2, 2010). For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, these
changes included a measurement of the
off mode power consumption during the
shoulder season, P1, in watts. For
central air conditioners only, the test
procedure also provides a method to
measure the off mode power
consumption during the heating season,
P2, also in watts. Id. at 31269. P2 does
not apply to heat pumps, because heat
pumps are used during both the heating
and cooling seasons, and, therefore, off
mode power consumption only occurs
during the shoulder seasons.
However, the June 2010 test
procedure NOPR did not contain an off
mode metric which combined P1 and P2.
In general, issues concerning test
procedure provisions for standby mode
and off mode power consumption are
being addressed in a separate SNOPR
for the Residential CAC test procedure.
However, in that SNOPR, DOE is
proposing the following off mode
metric, PW,OFF, to regulate off mode
power consumption for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. PW,OFF is
calculated for air conditioners using an
equation involving P1 and P2 based on
the national average relative lengths of
each season (739 hours for P1 and 5,216
hours for P2). For heat pumps, PW,OFF
equals P1 because the heat pump is in
active mode during the heating season.
The equations used to calculate PW,OFF
are as follows:
For air conditioners: PW,OFF = 0.124 * P1
+ 0.876 * P2
For heat pumps: PW,OFF = P1
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As noted above, these equations were
not included in the June 2010 test
procedure NOPR, but are being
addressed in an SNOPR.
G. Technological Feasibility
1. General
In each standards rulemaking, DOE
conducts a screening analysis, which it
bases on information it has gathered on
all current technology options and
prototype designs that could improve
the efficiency of the products or
equipment that are the subject of the
rulemaking. As the first step in such
analysis, DOE develops a list of design
options for consideration in
consultation with manufacturers, design
engineers, and other interested parties.
DOE then determines which of these
means for improving efficiency are
technologically feasible. DOE considers
a design option to be technologically
feasible if it is in use by the relevant
industry or if research has progressed to
the development of a working
prototype. ‘‘Technologies incorporated
in commercial products or in working
prototypes will be considered
technologically feasible.’’ 10 CFR 430,
subpart C, appendix A, section 4(a)(4)(i).
Further, although DOE does consider
technologies that are proprietary, it will
not consider efficiency levels that can
only be reached through the use of
proprietary technologies (i.e., a unique
pathway), which could allow a single
manufacturer to monopolize the market.
Once DOE has determined that
particular design options are
technologically feasible, it further
evaluates each of these design options
in light of the following additional
screening criteria: (1) Practicability to
manufacture, install, or service; (2)
adverse impacts on product utility or
availability; and (3) adverse impacts on
health or safety. 10 CFR part 430,
subpart C, appendix A, section
4(a)(4)(ii)–(iv). Section IV.B of this
notice discusses the results of the
screening analyses for furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
Specifically, it presents the designs DOE
considered, those it screened out, and
those that are the basis for the TSLs in
this rulemaking. For further details on
the screening analysis for this
rulemaking, see chapter 4 of the direct
final rule TSD.
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2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
When DOE proposes to adopt (or not
adopt) an amended or new energy
conservation standard for a type or class
of covered product, it must ‘‘determine
the maximum improvement in energy
efficiency or maximum reduction in
energy use that is technologically
feasible’’ for such product. (42 U.S.C.
6295(p)(1)) Accordingly, DOE
determined the maximum
technologically feasible (‘‘max-tech’’)
improvements in energy efficiency for
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps in the engineering
analysis using the design parameters
that passed the screening analysis and
that lead to the creation of the most
efficient products available. (See
chapter 5 of the direct final rule TSD.)
The max-tech efficiency levels are set
forth in TSL 7 for residential furnaces
and again in TSL 7 for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and
represent the most efficient products
available on the market in the given
product class. Products at the max-tech
efficiency levels for both furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps
are either currently offered for sale or
have previously been offered for sale.
However, no products at higher
efficiencies are available or have been in
the past, and DOE is not aware of any
working prototype designs that would
allow manufacturers to achieve higher
efficiencies. For central air conditioners
and heat pumps, the max-tech levels are
listed at various cooling capacities
within the each product class, because
they vary depending on the cooling
capacity of the product. Table III.6 and
Table III.7 list the max-tech levels that
DOE determined for the products that
are the subjects of this rulemaking.
TABLE III.6—MAX-TECH AFUE LEVELS
CONSIDERED IN THE FURNACES
ANALYSES
Product class
Non-weatherized Gas ...............
Mobile Home Gas .....................
Non-weatherized Oil-Fired ........
Weatherized Gas ......................
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Max-Tech
AFUE Level
%
98
96
97
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37439
TABLE III.7—MAX-TECH SEER AND HSPF LEVELS CONSIDERED IN THE CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP
ANALYSES
Product class
Split Systems ................................
Cooling capacity
Air Conditioners Blower-Coil* .......
Air Conditioners Coil-Only* ...........
Heat Pumps ..................................
2
3
5
2
3
5
2
3
5
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Ton
Max-Tech efficiency level
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
.............................................
24.5 SEER
22 SEER
18 SEER
18 SEER
17 SEER
16 SEER
22 SEER
21 SEER
18 SEER
Single-Package Systems ..............
Air Conditioners ............................
Heat Pumps ..................................
3 Ton .............................................
3 Ton .............................................
16.6 SEER
16.4 SEER
Niche Products ..............................
SDHV ............................................
Space-Constrained Air Conditioners.
Space-Constrained Heat Pumps ..
3 Ton .............................................
2.5 Ton ..........................................
14.3 SEER
12 SEER
2.5 Ton ..........................................
12 SEER
*Although analyzed separately, DOE is setting the same standard level for split-system blower-coil air conditioners and split-system coil-only
air conditioners. DOE analyzed these products separately for greater accuracy in its analyses, but is adopting the same standard level. The difference between the two types of split-system air conditioners is that a blower-coil unit is matched with an indoor fan, while a coil-only unit is not.
The rating method for a coil-only unit uses a default fan power consumption (limiting the SEER that can be achieved), while a blower-coil unit
uses the measured fan power consumption of its matched indoor fan. For additional discussion of DOE’s treatment of blower-coil and coil-only
products, see section IV.A.3.b of this direct final rule.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
For the weatherized gas furnace
product class and the space-constrained
central air conditioner and heat pumps
product classes, the max-tech levels
identified are the same level as the
existing minimum standards for each
respective product. The max-tech levels
for these products are further discussed
in the subsections immediately below.
a. Weatherized Gas Furnace Max-Tech
Efficiency Level
For the RAP, DOE examined the
efficiencies of weatherized gas furnaces
available on the market and determined
that 81-percent AFUE is the highest
efficiency available for weatherized gas
furnaces. In the RAP, DOE proposed to
analyze several efficiency levels for
weatherized gas furnaces, including an
81-percent max-tech level, and received
feedback from several interested parties,
described below.
ACEEE suggested that DOE should
use a condensing furnace at 90-percent
AFUE for the max-tech level for
weatherized gas furnaces, because
limited numbers of commercial
packaged units are available with
condensing gas sections, and this
technology may be feasible for use with
condensate drains to the house interior.
(FUR: ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p. 6) In
contrast, Lennox stated that it supports
the 81-percent AFUE max-tech
efficiency levels shown for weatherized
gas furnaces only for the purposes of
undertaking required analysis; Lennox
does not support DOE’s setting max-tech
as the minimum required efficiency
level in a standard, and stated that DOE
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should avoid doing so. (FUR: Lennox,
No. 1.3.018 at p. 3)
During the screening analysis (see
section IV.B of this direct final rule),
DOE considered technologies to
improve the AFUE of weatherized gas
furnaces, but determined that no
weatherized gas furnace technologies
satisfied all four screening criteria. As a
result, 81-percent AFUE is the
maximum technologically feasible
efficiency level for these products. At
efficiencies above 81-percent AFUE, the
potential for the formation of
condensate increases, causing concerns
about condensate freezing in
weatherized furnaces, which are
installed outdoors. When condensate
freezes, the performance of the unit is
impacted, and failure rates increase,
while reliability decreases. As suggested
by ACEEE, DOE examined a condensing
design for weatherized gas furnaces. In
researching weatherized gas furnace
designs currently on the market as well
as prototype designs, DOE did not
discover any designs that have been or
are currently being used in
commercially-available designs or
working prototypes for residential
condensing weatherized gas furnaces.
Therefore, DOE is not aware of any
designs that have reliably overcome
issues associated with condensate
freezing in weatherized gas furnaces,
and this direct final rule does not
include efficiency levels where
condensate formation is possible for this
product class. However, DOE recognizes
that if the issues associated with
condensate freezing in weatherized gas
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furnaces can be reliably overcome, there
may be potential for developing
products at condensing efficiency levels
in the future.
The minimum energy conservation
standard for weatherized gas furnaces
that was promulgated by the November
2007 Rule is 81-percent AFUE. 72 FR
65136, 65169 (Nov. 19, 2007); 10 CFR
430.32(e)(1)(ii). Because DOE has
concluded that the November 2007 Rule
was not vacated by the remand
agreement, 81-perecent AFUE was used
as the baseline for this rulemaking. As
a result, DOE has determined that 81percent AFUE is both the baseline and
max-tech level for weatherized gas
furnaces. DOE concluded that there is
no need to perform additional analyses
for these products, since the de facto
minimum standard will be 81-percent
AFUE.
b. Space-Constrained Central Air
Conditioner and Heat Pump Max-Tech
Efficiency Levels
In conducting its analyses, DOE
determined that the max-tech levels for
both the space-constrained air
conditioner and heat pump product
classes are 12 SEER, which is equivalent
to the baseline level. DOE has
concluded that unique factors may
prevent through-the-wall products from
realizing the full potential of energy
saving design options available to other
product classes. Typically, increased
condenser coil surface area is the most
cost-effective energy saving measure
available for air conditioners and heat
pumps. However, manufacturers of
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space-constrained products are limited
in their ability to implement this option
by the apparent constraints upon coil
size inherently present in this product
class, and some manufacturers have
expressed concern that the available
condenser coil surface area may have
already been maximized in order to
reach the 10.9 SEER standard, which
was set forth in the previous rulemaking
for through-the-wall products. 69 FR
50997, 51001 (August 17, 2004).
Similarly, manufacturers have claimed
that the number of coil rows has also
been maximized to the point at which
the addition of further rows would not
provide a noticeable improvement in
performance. Other coil improvements,
such as micro-channel tubing 23, were
proven technologically infeasible during
research and development testing
because manufacturers have been
unable to solve defrosting issues, calling
into question the technological
feasibility of this technology option for
all types of heat pumps. If coil
improvements are insufficient to
increase product efficiency, throughthe-wall manufacturers must explore
more-costly design options, such as
high-efficiency compressors and fan
motors and controls. According to
certain manufacturers, higher-efficiency
compressors were incorporated into
products on the market to meet the 10.9
SEER standard, and variable speed fan
motors and advanced controls were
incorporated into product designs when
the through-the-wall product class
expired and those products were
required to meet the 12 SEER standard
as part of the space-constrained product
classes. The expiration of this product
class and inclusion of the through-thewall units in the space-constrained
product class is discussed in greater
detail in section IV.A.3.b. The
implementation of these technologies to
meet the 12 SEER requirement of the
space-constrained product class
suggests that manufacturers have few, if
any, technology options left to improve
efficiency level beyond 12 SEER.
DOE conducted teardowns and
further market research to confirm this
hypothesis and found the spaceconstrained max-tech efficiency level to
be 12 SEER for both the spaceconstrained air conditioner and heat
pump product classes. This level
matches the baseline, and therefore,
DOE would be unable to raise the
23 Microchannel heat exchangers have a
rectangular cross-section containing several small
channels through which refrigerant passes. Fins
pass between the tubes and are brazed to the tubes.
These heat exchangers are capable of transferring
more heat per unit of face area than a round-tube
plate-fin coil of comparable capacity.
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energy conservation standards.
Therefore, DOE concluded that there is
no need to perform additional analyses
for these products, since the de facto
minimum standard will be 12 SEER.
However, during its investigation, DOE
found that space-constrained products
have the potential to achieve higher
offmode efficiency levels, and,
therefore, considered these products in
the off mode analysis, which is
discussed in section III.E.2.a.
H. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
DOE used its NIA spreadsheet to
estimate energy savings from amended
standards for residential furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
(The NIA spreadsheet model is
described in section IV.G of this notice
and chapter 10 of the direct final rule
TSD.) For most of the considered TSLs,
DOE forecasted cumulative energy
savings beginning in the year in which
compliance with amended standards
would be required, and ending 30 years
afterward. For TSL 4, which matches
the recommendations in the consensus
agreement, DOE forecasted the energy
savings from 2015 through 2045 for
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
and from 2013 through 2045 for
furnaces.24 DOE quantified the energy
savings attributable to each TSL as the
difference in energy consumption
between the standards case and the base
case. The base case represents the
forecast of energy consumption in the
absence of new or amended mandatory
efficiency standards, and considers
market demand for more-efficient
products.
The NIA spreadsheet model calculates
the energy savings in ‘‘site energy,’’
which is the energy directly consumed
by products at the locations where they
are used. DOE reports national energy
savings on an annual basis in terms of
the source (primary) energy savings,
which is the savings in the energy that
is used to generate and transmit energy
to the site. To convert site energy to
source energy, DOE derived annual
conversion factors from the model used
to prepare the Energy Information
Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy
Outlook 2010 (AEO2010), which
presents long-term projections of energy
supply, demand, and prices.25
24 TSL 4 incorporates the recommendations of the
consensus agreement, which include compliance
dates in 2015 for central air conditioners and heat
pumps and in 2013 for furnaces.
25 For more information on AEO2010, see:
https://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.
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2. Significance of Savings
As noted above, under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(3)(B), EPCA prohibits DOE from
adopting a standard for a covered
product if such standard would not
result in ‘‘significant’’ energy savings.
While the term ‘‘significant’’ is not
defined in the Act, the U.S. Court of
Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, in Natural
Resources Defense Council v.
Herrington, 768 F.2d 1355, 1373 (D.C.
Cir. 1985), indicated that Congress
intended ‘‘significant’’ energy savings in
this context to be savings that were not
‘‘genuinely trivial.’’ The energy savings
for all of the TSLs considered in this
rulemaking are nontrivial, and,
therefore, DOE considers them
‘‘significant’’ within the meaning of 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(B).
I. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
As discussed in section II.B, EPCA
provides seven factors to be evaluated in
determining whether a potential energy
conservation standard is economically
justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) The
following sections generally discuss
how DOE is addressing each of those
seven factors in this rulemaking. For
further details and the results of DOE’s
analyses pertaining to economic
justification, see sections IV and V of
today’s notice.
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers
and Consumers
In determining the impacts of a new
or amended standard on manufacturers,
DOE first determines the quantitative
impacts using an annual cash-flow
approach. This includes both a shortterm assessment (based on the cost and
capital requirements associated with
new or amended standards during the
period between the announcement of a
regulation and when the regulation
comes into effect) and a long-term
assessment (based on the costs and
margin impacts over the 30-year
analysis period). The impacts analyzed
include INPV (which values the
industry on the basis of expected future
cash flows), cash flows by year, changes
in revenue and income, and other
measures of impact, as appropriate.
Second, DOE analyzes and reports the
impacts on different types of
manufacturers, paying particular
attention to impacts on small
manufacturers. Third, DOE considers
the impact of standards on domestic
manufacturer employment and
manufacturing capacity, as well as the
potential for standards to result in plant
closures and loss of capital investment.
Finally, DOE takes into account
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cumulative impacts of different DOE
regulations and other regulatory
requirements on manufacturers.
For individual consumers, measures
of economic impact include the changes
in LCC and the PBP associated with new
or amended standards. The LCC, which
is also separately specified as one of the
seven factors to be considered in
determining the economic justification
for a new or amended standard (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(II)), is discussed
in the following section. For consumers
in the aggregate, DOE also calculates the
net present value from a national
perspective of the economic impacts on
consumers over the forecast period used
in a particular rulemaking.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
b. Life-Cycle Costs
The LCC is the sum of the purchase
price of a product (including the cost of
its installation) and the operating
expense (including energy and
maintenance and repair expenditures)
discounted over the lifetime of the
product. The LCC savings for the
considered efficiency levels are
calculated relative to a base case that
reflects likely trends in the absence of
amended standards. The LCC analysis
requires a variety of inputs, such as
product prices, product energy
consumption, energy prices,
maintenance and repair costs, product
lifetime, and consumer discount rates.
DOE assumes in its analysis that
consumers purchase the product in the
year in which compliance with the
amended standard is required.
To account for uncertainty and
variability in specific inputs, such as
product lifetime and discount rate, DOE
uses a distribution of values with
probabilities attached to each value. A
distinct advantage of this approach is
that DOE can identify the percentage of
consumers estimated to achieve LCC
savings or experiencing an LCC
increase, in addition to the average LCC
savings associated with a particular
standard level. In addition to identifying
ranges of impacts, DOE evaluates the
LCC impacts of potential standards on
identifiable subgroups of consumers
that may be disproportionately affected
by an amended national standard.
c. Energy Savings
While significant conservation of
energy is a separate statutory
requirement for imposing an energy
conservation standard, the Act requires
DOE, in determining the economic
justification of a standard, to consider
the total projected energy savings that
are expected to result directly from the
standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III))
DOE uses the NIA spreadsheet results in
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its consideration of total projected
savings.
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Products
In establishing classes of products,
and in evaluating design options and
the impact of potential standard levels,
DOE seeks to develop standards that
would not lessen the utility or
performance of the products under
consideration. None of the TSLs
presented in today’s direct final rule
would reduce the utility or performance
of the products considered in the
rulemaking. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV)) During the
screening analysis, DOE eliminated
from consideration any technology that
would adversely impact consumer
utility. For the results of DOE’s analyses
related to the potential impact of
amended standards on product utility
and performance, see section IV.B of
this notice and chapter 4 of the direct
final rule TSD.
e. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
EPCA directs DOE to consider any
lessening of competition that is likely to
result from standards. Specifically, it
directs the U.S. Attorney General
(Attorney General) to determine in
writing the impact, if any, of any
lessening of competition likely to result
from a proposed standard and to
transmit such determination to the
Secretary, not later than 60 days after
the publication of a proposed rule,
together with an analysis of the nature
and extent of such impact. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (ii)) DOE is
simultaneously publishing a NOPR
containing energy conservation
standards identical to those set forth in
today’s direct final rule and has
transmitted a copy of today’s direct final
rule and the accompanying TSD to the
Attorney General, requesting that the
U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)
provide its determination on this issue.
DOE will consider DOJ’s comments on
the rule in determining whether to
proceed with the direct final rule. DOE
will also publish and respond to the
DOJ’s comments in the Federal Register
in a separate notice.
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Energy
Another factor which DOE must
consider in determining whether a new
or amended standard is economically
justified is the need for national energy
and water conservation. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI)) The energy savings
from new or amended standards are
likely to provide improvements to the
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security and reliability of the Nation’s
energy system. Reductions in the
demand for electricity may also result in
reduced costs for maintaining the
reliability of the Nation’s electricity
system. DOE conducts a utility impact
analysis to estimate how new or
amended standards may affect the
Nation’s needed power generation
capacity.
Energy savings from the standards in
this rule are also likely to result in
environmental benefits in the form of
reduced emissions of air pollutants and
greenhouse gases associated with energy
production (i.e., from power plants),
and through reduced use of fossil fuels
at the homes where gas and oil furnaces
are used. DOE reports the
environmental effects from the
standards in this rule, as well as from
each TSL it considered for furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
in the environmental assessment
contained in chapter 15 in the direct
final rule TSD. DOE also reports
estimates of the economic value of
emissions reductions resulting from the
considered TSLs.
g. Other Factors
The Act allows the Secretary, in
determining whether a standard is
economically justified, to consider any
other factors that the Secretary deems to
be relevant. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VII)) In developing the
standards set forth in this notice, DOE
has also considered the comments
submitted by interested parties,
including the recommendations in the
consensus agreement, which DOE
believes provides a reasoned statement
by interested persons that are fairly
representative of relevant points of view
(including representatives of
manufacturers of covered products,
States, and efficiency advocates) and
contains recommendations with respect
to energy conservation standards that
are in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
6295(o). DOE has encouraged the
submission of consensus agreements as
a way to get diverse stakeholders
together, to develop an independent and
probative analysis useful in DOE
standard setting, and to expedite the
rulemaking process. In the present case,
one outcome of the consensus
agreement was a recommendation to
accelerate the compliance dates for
these products, which would have the
effect of producing additional energy
savings at an earlier date. DOE also
believes that standard levels
recommended in the consensus
agreement may increase the likelihood
for regulatory compliance, while
decreasing the risk of litigation.
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2. Rebuttable Presumption
As set forth in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii), EPCA provides for a
rebuttable presumption that an energy
conservation standard is economically
justified if the additional cost to the
consumer of a product that meets the
standard level is less than three times
the value of the first-year energy (and,
as applicable, water) savings resulting
from the standard, as calculated under
the applicable DOE test procedure.
DOE’s LCC and PBP analyses generate
values that calculate the payback period
for consumers of potential new and
amended energy conservation
standards. These analyses include, but
are not limited to, the three-year
payback period contemplated under the
rebuttable presumption test. However,
DOE routinely conducts a full economic
analysis that considers the full range of
impacts to the consumer, manufacturer,
Nation, and environment, as required
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i). The
results of this analysis serve as the basis
for DOE to evaluate the economic
justification for a potential standard
level definitively (thereby supporting or
rebutting the results of any preliminary
determination of economic
justification). The rebuttable
presumption payback calculation is
discussed in section IV.F.12 of this
direct final rule and chapter 8 of the
direct final rule TSD.
IV. Methodology and Discussion
DOE used two spreadsheet tools,
which are available online,26 to estimate
the impact of all the considered
standard levels, including the standards
in this rule. The first spreadsheet
calculates LCCs and payback periods of
potential amended energy conservation
standards. The second provides
shipments forecasts and then calculates
national energy savings and net present
value impacts of potential energy
conservation standards. The Department
also assessed manufacturer impacts,
largely through use of the Government
Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM), which
is an industry cash-flow model that is
described in detail in section IV.I.
Additionally, DOE estimated the
impacts on utilities and the
environment of potential amended
energy efficiency standards for furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps. DOE used a version of EIA’s
National Energy Modeling System
(NEMS) for the utility and
26 https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/furnaces_
boilers.html and https://www1.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/residential/central
_ac_hp.html.
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environmental analyses. The NEMS
model simulates the energy sector of the
U.S. economy. EIA uses NEMS to
prepare its Annual Energy Outlook. For
more information on NEMS, refer to The
National Energy Modeling System: An
Overview, DOE/EIA–0581 (98) (Feb.
1998) (available at: https://tonto.eia.
doe.gov/FTPROOT/forecasting/
058198.pdf).
The version of NEMS used for
appliance standards analysis is called
NEMS–BT, which is based on the AEO
version but with minor modifications.27
NEMS–BT offers a sophisticated picture
of the effect of standards, because it
accounts for the interactions between
the various energy supply and demand
sectors and the economy as a whole.
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. General
When beginning an energy
conservation standards rulemaking,
DOE develops information that provides
an overall picture of the market for the
products concerned, including the
purpose of the products, the industry
structure, and market characteristics.
This activity includes both quantitative
and qualitative assessments based
primarily on publicly-available
information (e.g., manufacturer
specification sheets, industry
publications, and data from trade
organization Web sites, such as AHRI at
https://www.ahrinet.org/). The subjects
addressed in the market and technology
assessment for this rulemaking include:
(1) Quantities and types of products
sold and offered for sale; (2) retail
market trends; (3) products covered by
the rulemaking; (4) product classes; (5)
manufacturers; (6) regulatory
requirements and non-regulatory
programs (such as rebate programs and
tax credits); and (7) technologies that
could improve the energy efficiency of
the products under examination. See
chapter 3 of the direct final rule TSD for
further discussion of the market and
technology assessment.
2. Products Included in This
Rulemaking
This subsection addresses the scope
of coverage for this energy conservation
standards rulemaking for furnaces,
27 EIA approves the use of the name ‘‘NEMS’’ to
describe only an AEO version of the model without
any modification to code or data. Because the
present analysis entails some minor code
modifications (to allow modeling of the impact of
energy conservation standards on the appropriate
energy end uses) and uses the model under various
policy scenarios that deviate from AEO
assumptions, the name ‘‘NEMS–BT’’ refers to the
model as used here. (‘‘BT’’ stands for DOE’s
Building Technologies Program.)
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central air conditioners, and heat
pumps. It will also address whether
EPCA covers certain other products and
authorizes DOE to adopt standards for
them.
a. Furnaces
EPCA defines a residential ‘‘furnace’’
as a product that: (1) Either uses only
single-phase electric current, or uses
single-phase electric current or direct
current (DC) in conjunction with natural
gas, propane, or home heating oil; (2) is
designed to be the principal heating
source for the living space of a
residence; (3) is not contained within
the same cabinet with a central air
conditioner whose rated cooling
capacity is above 65,000 Btu per hour;
(4) is an electric central furnace, electric
boiler, forced-air central furnace, gravity
central furnace, or low pressure steam
or hot water boiler; and (5) has a heat
input rate of less than 300,000 Btu per
hour for electric boilers and low
pressure steam or hot water boilers and
less than 225,000 Btu per hour for
forced-air central furnaces, gravity
central furnaces, and electric central
furnaces. (42 U.S.C. 6291(23)) This
definition covers the following types of
products: (1) Gas furnaces (nonweatherized and weatherized); (2) oilfired furnaces (non-weatherized and
weatherized); (3) mobile home furnaces
(gas and oil-fired); (4) electric resistance
furnaces; (5) hot water boilers (gas and
oil-fired); (6) steam boilers (gas and oilfired); and (7) combination space/water
heating appliances (water-heater/fancoil
combination units and boiler/tankless
coil combination units).
Residential boilers are outside the
scope of this rulemaking. EISA 2007
included amendments to EPCA that
established amended standards for these
boilers (42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(3)), and DOE
subsequently incorporated these
standards into its regulations at 10 CFR
430.32(e)(2)(ii). 73 FR 43611 (July 28,
2008). Compliance with the new
statutory boilers standards is required
for covered products manufactured or
imported on or after September 1, 2012.
As discussed in section II.B.2.a above,
under the voluntary remand, DOE
agreed to undertake analyses to
determine whether it should establish
regional energy conservation standards
for residential furnaces. As part of this
analysis, DOE agreed to consider the
effect of alternate standards on natural
gas prices. The current rulemaking for
furnaces is the second amended energy
conservation standards rulemaking
which is being conducted pursuant to
authority under 42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(C)
and (o)(6). Given the relatively recent
enactment of statutorily-prescribed
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boiler standards in EISA 2007, DOE has
decided to consider amended energy
conservation standards for boilers under
42 U.S.C. 6295(f)(4)(C) in a future
rulemaking.
For furnaces, this rulemaking covers
the same products as those covered by
the November 2007 Rule, consisting of
the following types of furnaces: (1) Nonweatherized gas; (2) weatherized gas; (3)
mobile home gas; and (4) nonweatherized oil-fired. However, DOE
did not perform an AFUE analysis for
weatherized gas furnaces because the
November 2007 Rule promulgated
standards at the max-tech AFUE level.
As described in section III.G, DOE has
concluded that 81-percent AFUE is still
the max-tech efficiency achievable for
weatherized gas furnaces. Therefore,
because EPCA’s anti-backsliding clause
would not allow DOE to consider
adoption of a minimum standard below
81-percent AFUE, and because there are
no viable efficiency levels above 81percent AFUE, DOE did not perform an
AFUE analysis for weatherized gas
furnaces.
Although DOE did not consider
amended AFUE standards for electric
furnaces, mobile home oil-fired
furnaces, and weatherized oil-fired
furnaces in this rulemaking for the
reasons discussed in the following
sections, DOE did consider standby
mode and off mode standards for these
products. Additionally, DOE did not
analyze energy conservation standards
for combination space/water heating
appliances for reasons discussed below.
(i) Mobile Home Oil-Fired and
Weatherized Oil-Fired Furnaces
DOE is not proposing amended AFUE
standards for mobile home oil-fired
furnaces and weatherized oil-fired
furnaces because DOE understands that
only a very small number of these
products are shipped (as these products
combine to make up less than one
percent of all furnace models in the
AHRI directory) and that the few models
that are shipped exceed the currently
applicable standards (i.e., 75-percent
AFUE for mobile home oil-fired
furnaces and 78-percent AFUE for
weatherized oil-fired furnaces). As a
result, DOE believes that promulgating
higher standards for these products
would result in de minimis energy
savings. DOE initially made these
determinations in the proposed rule
leading to the development of the
November 2007 Rule (71 FR 59204,
59214 (Oct. 6, 2006)), and based on a
more recent review of products on the
market and feedback from
manufacturers, DOE believes the market
for all of these furnaces has not
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changed. DOE initially made this
proposal in the RAP and did not receive
any related comments.
(ii) Electric Furnaces
EPCA initially prescribed standards at
78-percent AFUE for ‘‘furnaces,’’ which
did not exclude electric furnaces. (42
U.S.C. 6295(f)(1)) The definition of a
‘‘furnace’’ in EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6291(23))
explicitly includes ‘‘electric furnaces,’’
and, therefore, the 78-percent AFUE
standard set by EPCA applies to electric
furnaces. In the November 2007 final
rule, DOE stated that it was not adopting
amended standards for electric furnaces.
72 FR 65136, 65154 (Nov. 19, 2007).
However, when outlining the minimum
AFUE requirements for the other
furnace product classes, DOE did not
restate the requirement for electric
furnaces that was originally established
by EPCA. To clarify the existing
standards for electric furnaces, DOE is
reaffirming the 78-percent minimum
AFUE level for electric furnaces that
was originally established by EPCA in
today’s direct final rule. As noted
previously, DOE is not adopting
amended AFUE standards for electric
furnaces because it understands that
their efficiency already approaches 100percent AFUE. The AFUE ratings for
electric furnace products currently on
the market range from 96-percent (for
outdoor units due to jacket losses) to
100-percent, and as discussed below,
the test procedures for these products
effectively limit them from having
AFUE ratings any lower than this.
Therefore, for the reasons explained
below, DOE believes that any
improvements to electric furnaces
would have a de minimis energy-savings
potential and did not consider
amending the AFUE standards for these
products. (However, as noted in section
III.E.1.b of this direct final rule, DOE
analyzed new energy conservation
standards for standby mode and off
mode energy consumption of these
products.)
The test procedure for residential
furnaces specifies that AFUE for electric
furnaces is calculated as 100 percent
minus jacket losses, and gives the
option of assigning jacket losses equal to
1 percent.28 The AFUE is calculated in
this manner because the electric heating
28 For the rulemaking analysis in support of the
2007 Final Rule for residential furnaces and boilers,
DOE gathered test data on the jacket losses for
furnaces. This data is summarized in a presentation
available at: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/pdfs/support_
material.pdf. The actual jacket loss values based on
testing ranged from 0.11 percent to 0.75 percent.
Thus, DOE believes one percent jacket losses to be
representative of a conservative estimate of the
actual jacket losses of furnaces.
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elements convert all of the electrical
input energy into heat energy, and the
only losses at the point of operation are
through the jacket. The jacket losses are
then multiplied by a factor of 1.7 for
indoor furnaces (which must be tested
as isolated combustion systems) and 3.3
for outdoor furnaces, and subtracted
from 100 percent to get the AFUE rating.
Therefore, the lowest possible AFUE
rating for an electric furnace, according
to DOE’s test procedure and assuming a
default value of 1 percent jacket losses,
is 98.3 percent AFUE for nonweatherized (indoor) electric furnaces
and 96.7 percent AFUE for weatherized
(outdoor) electric furnaces. Further, a
significant portion of electric furnaces
are installed in the conditioned space,
and any heat lost through the jacket in
such installations would contribute to
the heated space, effectively making the
electric furnace completely efficient at
the point of use.
The jacket losses of furnaces currently
on the market are low, as jacket losses
are already assumed by the test
procedure to be a default of 1 percent,
and it is unlikely that further
improvements will have much impact
on efficiency. Because reducing jacket
losses are the only means for improving
the efficiency of these products as rated
by DOE’s test procedure, they have an
extremely limited potential for
additional energy savings. Any
efficiency levels analyzed would be very
unlikely to result in significant energy
savings.
In response to DOE’s planned
approach for considering amended
AFUE standards for electric furnaces,
which was outlined in the RAP, DOE
received several comments.
NRDC stated that DOE should include
electric furnaces in the scope of this
rulemaking because these products
represent a low-cost option that could
grow in market penetration as the
efficiency (and as a result, cost) of
competing products that provide the
exact same consumer utility (i.e., heat
pumps, which in most cases have
electric furnaces as back up and would
use the same duct system) may
potentially increase with upcoming
standards. Further, NRDC stated that
unless the energy savings potential of
amended standards for electric furnaces
is less than 0.032 quads (an amount
deemed significant by DOE in the
packaged terminal air conditioners
(PTACs) rulemaking29), DOE should
include them in the scope of this
rulemaking. (FUR: NRDC, No. 1.3.020 at
pp. 8) ACEEE recommended including
29 DOE published the final rule for PTACs on
October 7, 2008. 73 FR 58772.
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electric furnaces and requiring a
minimum AFUE of greater than 100percent for all ducted electric furnaces,
given the substantial energy losses in
transmission from source to site. (FUR:
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p. 3–4) AGA
stated that excluding electric furnaces
from consideration in the rulemaking is
counterproductive to reducing energy
consumption, so the commenter urged
DOE to look at the number of electric
furnaces on the market and to use that
number in a comparative analysis to
determine the potential impact of
inclusion of such products in this
rulemaking. (FUR: AGA, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 42)
Conversely, EEI stated that it supports
the scope of the current rulemaking and
agreed with DOE’s conclusions in the
RAP regarding electric resistance
furnaces and boilers. (FUR: EEI, No.
1.3.015 at p. 3) The American Public
Power Association (APPA) commented
that if DOE decides to reject the use of
the consensus agreement and proceed
with a rulemaking, APPA would
support the scope as outlined by DOE.
More specifically, APPA supported the
finding that the rulemaking should not
cover electric resistance furnaces
because their efficiency is already very
high. (FUR: APPA, No. 1.3.011 at p. 3)
In response, DOE notes that it cannot
promulgate a standard that would lead
to the elimination of any product class.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(4)) Because it is
currently impossible for manufacturers
to achieve an AFUE standard of greater
than 100 percent for electric furnaces,
and because such a standard would
effectively eliminate electric furnaces
from the market, DOE does not believe
ACEEE’s suggestion is a valid
opportunity for energy savings under
EPCA. Additionally, as noted above,
DOE reviewed the market for electric
furnaces and determined that because
the efficiency of these products
approaches 100-percent AFUE, the
energy-savings potential is de minimis.
As a result, DOE does not believe there
is reason to consider amended standards
for electric furnaces in this rulemaking.
EarthJustice stated that DOE has the
statutory authority to consider heat
pump technology as a design option to
improve the efficiency of electric
furnaces. EarthJustice asserted that
because heat pumps use the same kind
of energy and provide the same
functionality as electric resistance
furnaces, there is no basis for treating
the products differently, and separate
standards for these products are
inconsistent with EPCA’s mandate to
save energy. Further, EarthJustice stated
that the definition of a ‘‘furnace’’ is
broad enough to cover heat pumps even
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though they are already defined under
42 U.S.C. 6291(24) and argued that a
heat pump meets all of the requirements
of the furnace definition. (FUR:
EarthJustice, No. 1.3.014 at pp. 3–6)
Similarly, NRDC stated that electric
furnaces should be added to the heat
pump product class and be required to
achieve the same performance. NRDC
suggested rating both types of products
using the same metric—testing the
furnaces for HSPF if possible, or
exploring an AFUE rating for a heat
pump. (FUR: NRDC, No. 1.3.020 at pp.
8–9)
DOE notes that EPCA defines a
‘‘furnace’’ as ‘‘an electric central
furnace, electric boiler, forced-air
central furnace, gravity central furnace,
or low pressure steam or hot water
boiler.’’ (42 U.S.C. 6291(23)(C)) Further,
DOE’s definitions in the Code of Federal
Regulations define an ‘‘electric central
furnace’’ as ‘‘a furnace designed to
supply heat through a system of ducts
with air as the heating medium, in
which heat is generated by one or more
electric resistance heating elements and
the heated air is circulated by means of
a fan or blower.’’ 10 CFR 430.2.
Separately, EPCA defines a ‘‘heat
pump’’ as a product that (1) consists of
one or more assemblies; (2) is powered
by single phase electric current; (3) is
rated below 65,000 Btu per hour; (4)
utilizes an indoor conditioning coil,
compressors, and refrigerant-to-outdoorair heat exchanger to provide air
heating; and (5) may also provide air
cooling, dehumidifying, humidifying
circulating, and air cleaning. (42 U.S.C.
6291(24)) DOE believes that the
definition of ‘‘heat pump’’ in EPCA does
not include electric furnaces, because
electric furnaces do not meet all of the
criteria of the ‘‘heat pump’’ definition
(such as utilizing a compressor and
refrigerant). (42 U.S.C. 6291(24)(D))
Further, DOE believes that because
‘‘heat pumps’’ are defined separately by
EPCA, they are not included under the
definition of a ‘‘furnace’’ under 42
U.S.C. 6291(23)(C), which states that a
furnace is an electric central furnace,
electric boiler, forced-air central
furnace, gravity central furnace, or low
pressure steam or hot water boiler.
Because an electric central furnace
utilizes heat ‘‘generated by one or more
electric resistance elements,’’ a heat
pump would not be covered under the
definition of an ‘‘electric central
furnace.’’ Once heat pump technology is
added to an electric furnace, the product
would no longer generate heat using an
electric resistance element, but instead
would use a refrigerant-to-outdoor-air
heat exchanger to provide air heating.
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Such a change in the mechanism for
generating heat would exclude the
product from being covered as a furnace
(as it would no longer be an ‘‘electric
furnace’’ under the definition of a
‘‘furnace’’ in 42 U.S.C. 6291(23)(C)), and
would instead cause it to be classified
it as a heat pump, under EPCA’s
definitions. Therefore, DOE has
concluded that it will not consider heat
pump technology as a design option for
electric furnaces in the analysis.
(iii) Combination Space/Water Heating
Appliances
DOE excluded combination space/
water heating appliances from
consideration in this rulemaking, as was
done in the NOPR leading to the
November 2007 Rule for furnaces and
boilers. 69 FR 45420, 45429 (July 29,
2004). An adequate test procedure does
not exist that would allow DOE to set
standards for these products.
ACEEE urged DOE to develop a test
method and energy conservation
standard for combination hot water/
space heating units. (FUR: ACEEE, No.
1.3.009 at p. 3) EEI stated that if
combination space/water heating
appliances obtain greater market share,
then DOE should create a test procedure
and efficiency standards in a future
rulemaking because they are a
competitive product. (FUR: EEI, No.
1.3.015 at p.3)
DOE has not yet initiated a test
procedure rulemaking to establish a test
procedure for combination space/water
heating appliances. DOE believes that
doing so as a part of this rulemaking
would cause delays that could prevent
DOE from issuing amended standards
for residential furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps in a timely
manner, and thus, may reduce energy
savings to the Nation from amended
standards (if the compliance date must
be delayed). Therefore, DOE may
consider a test procedure and energy
conservation standards for combination
space/water heating appliances in future
rulemakings, but will not do so as a part
of this rulemaking for residential
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
EPCA defines a residential ‘‘central
air conditioner’’ as a product, other than
a packaged terminal air conditioner,
which is: (1) Powered by single-phase
electric current, (2) air cooled, (3) rated
below 65,000 Btu per hour, (4) not
contained within the same cabinet as a
furnace the rated capacity of which is
above 225,000 Btu per hour, and (5) a
heat pump or a cooling only unit. (42
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U.S.C. 6291(21)) Furthermore, EPCA
defines a ‘‘heat pump’’ as a product,
other than a packaged terminal heat
pump, which: (1) Consists of one or
more assemblies, (2) is powered by
single-phase electric current, (3) is rated
below 65,000 Btu per hour, (4) uses an
indoor conditioning coil, compressors,
and refrigerant-to-outdoor air heat
exchanger to provide air heating, and (5)
may also provide air cooling,
dehumidifying, humidifying circulating,
and air cleaning. (42 U.S.C. 6291 (24))
For this rulemaking, DOE is
evaluating amended energy
conservation standards for the products
covered by DOE’s current standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
specified at 10 CFR 430.32(c)(2), which
DOE adopted in the August 2004 Rule.
These products consist of: (1) Splitsystem air conditioners; (2) split-system
heat pumps; (3) single package air
conditioners; (4) single package heat
pumps; (5) small-duct high-velocity
(SDHV) air conditioners and heat
pumps; (6) space-constrained air
conditioners; and (7) space-constrained
heat pumps. The August 2004 Rule also
prescribed standards for through-thewall air conditioners and heat pumps,
but those products are now considered
space-constrained products because the
through-the-wall product class expired
on January 23, 2010. 69 FR 51001.
(i) Evaporative Coolers
In response to the preliminary
analysis, ACEEE indicated that DOE
should consider evaporative pre-cooled
air conditioner condensers (i.e., the
evaporative pre-cooler is an add-on to a
conventional condenser) as a technology
that could improve the efficiency of air
conditioners. (CAC: ACEEE, No. 72 at p.
4) As a result of this input, DOE
reexamined its treatment of evaporative
coolers both as stand-alone products
and as add-ons to air conditioners.
Evaporative coolers, also sometimes
referred to as swamp coolers, can be
used as stand-alone residential cooling
systems. This type of system is generally
found in hot, dry regions such as the
southwestern United States. Evaporative
coolers operate by passing dry outdoor
air over a water-saturated medium,
which cools the air as the water
evaporates. The cooled air is then
directed into the home by a circulating
fan. As mentioned above, EPCA defines
a residential ‘‘central air conditioner,’’
in part, as ‘‘air-cooled.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6291(21)) Because residential
evaporative coolers are ‘‘evaporativelycooled’’ (instead of ‘‘air-cooled’’), DOE
has determined that they do not meet
this definition and are, therefore,
outside the scope of this rulemaking.
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In some instances, however,
evaporative coolers can be added on to
air conditioners, and the combined
system is referred to as an evaporative
pre-cooled air conditioner. In this
application, the add-on evaporative
cooler functions in the same manner as
the stand-alone system, except that its
output air is blown over the air
conditioner condenser coils, instead of
directly into the conditioned space. The
increased temperature gradient between
the condenser coil and the air improves
heat transfer and increases the
efficiency of the condenser coil. DOE is
unaware of either any evaporative precooled central air conditioning systems
offered as a complete package by any air
conditioner manufacturer, or of any
prototype of such a system.
Consequently, without cost or
performance data, DOE cannot give this
combined system full consideration in
the analysis. Therefore, the assumed
cost of meeting each TSL is based on
other technologies, which may be more
or less costly than evaporative precooling.
3. Product Classes
In evaluating and establishing energy
conservation standards, DOE generally
divides covered products into classes by
the type of energy used, or by capacity
or other performance-related feature that
justifies a different standard for
products having such feature. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)) In deciding whether a feature
justifies a different standard, DOE must
consider factors such as the utility of the
feature to users. Id. DOE normally
establishes different energy
conservation standards for different
product classes based on these criteria.
a. Furnaces
The existing Federal energy
conservation standards for residential
furnaces are codified at 10 CFR
430.32(e)(1)(i). The November 2007 Rule
amended energy conservation standards
for residential furnaces and established
six residential furnace product classes.
72 FR 65136, 65169 (Nov. 19, 2007). In
the furnaces RAP, DOE stated that it
intends to maintain these product
classes. Ingersoll Rand commented that
the planned product classes seem
appropriate. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 2) Lennox stated that it
supports DOE’s planned product classes
to the extent they mirror those in the
consensus agreement. (FUR: Lennox,
No. 1.3.018 at p. 3)
For today’s direct final rule, DOE
reviewed the market for residential
furnaces, and determined that it is
appropriate to consider the same six
product classes established for the
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November 2007 Rule for this analysis. In
addition, DOE also considered electric
furnaces for standby mode and off mode
standards only. Therefore, the furnace
product classes are:
• Non-weatherized gas;
• Weatherized gas;
• Mobile home gas;
• Mobile home oil-fired;
• Non-weatherized oil-fired;
• Weatherized oil-fired; and
• Electric.
As stated in section IV.A.2.a above,
DOE only performed an AFUE analysis
for non-weatherized gas, mobile home
gas, and non-weatherized oil-fired
furnaces. Additionally, DOE conducted
a standby mode and off mode analysis
for non-weatherized gas, mobile home
gas, non-weatherized oil-fired
(including mobile home oil-fired), and
electric furnaces. DOE did not perform
a standby mode and off mode analysis
for weatherized gas and weatherized oilfired furnaces, as discussed in section
III.E.1.a.
In response to the RAP for furnaces,
DOE received several comments related
to setting different standards for new
construction and replacement
installations for furnaces. AGA
recommended that DOE should adopt a
condensing standard at 90-percent
AFUE for new construction, but allow
non-condensing 80-percent furnaces to
be installed in replacement
applications. (FUR: AGA, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 41)
NEEP stated that it does not support
limiting a revised standard to new
construction, because approximately 70
percent of furnace sales are into the
replacement market, and such a
limitation would undermine too much
of the amended standard’s projected
energy savings. (FUR: NEEP, No. 1.3.021
at p. 3) ACEEE stated that the expected
life of a house is roughly 100 years, and
that exempting existing houses from a
standard sets a precedent for the
following rounds of rulemakings.
Further, ACEEE stated that at some
point, DOE would have to set standards
that force consumers to retrofit their
homes to accommodate more-efficient
products, and the cost to do this will not
go down with time. Therefore, ACEEE
reasoned that the sooner this is done,
the longer the benefits will be
recognized in an existing house. (FUR:
ACEEE, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
1.2.006 at pp. 51–52)
EEI stated strong opposition to setting
new efficiency standards for new
construction for only gas heating
products (and not other types of heating
products). EEI asserted that if new
efficiency standards for gas furnaces are
to only apply to new construction, then
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new efficiency standards for all other
competitive products covered by DOE
should also apply only to new
construction. EEI stated that otherwise,
standards in each product class should
apply to both new construction and
retrofit situations to maximize energy
savings and economies of scale (as has
been done in the past). (FUR: EEI, No.
1.3.015 at p. 3)
In response, DOE notes that setting
different standards for products
intended for replacement installations
and products intended for new
construction would effectively create
separate product classes for each of
these types of products. As stated above,
EPCA directs DOE to divide covered
products into classes based on the type
of energy used, capacity, or other
performance-related feature that justifies
a different standard for products having
such feature. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q)) DOE
does not believe that the intended
installation type (i.e., new construction
or replacement) falls under any of the
qualifications listed above. As a result,
DOE has determined that it does not
have the authority to establish
differentiated standards for product
installed in new construction and
products installed in replacement of an
existing unit. Therefore, DOE did not
consider such standards for this direct
final rule.
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b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
The existing Federal energy
conservation standards for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps
went into effect on January 23, 2006. 69
FR 50997 (Aug. 17, 2004). At 10 CFR
430.32(c)(2), there is a list of the nine
product classes of residential central air
conditioners and heat pumps and their
corresponding energy conservation
standards. However, because the
through-the-wall air conditioner and
heat pump product classes expired on
January 23, 2010, DOE examined only
seven product classes for this residential
central air conditioner and heat pump
rulemaking. 69 FR 50997, 51001 (Aug.
17, 2004). The seven product classes
DOE examined are:
• Split-system air conditioners;
• Split-system heat pumps;
• Single-package air conditioners;
• Single-package heat pumps;
• Small-duct, high-velocity systems;
• Space-constrained air conditioners;
and
• Space-constrained heat pumps.
The subsections below provide
additional detail and discussion of
stakeholder comments relating to these
seven product classes.
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(i) Expiration of Through-the-Wall
Product Class
Through-the-wall systems were
established as a separate product class,
and were required by the August 2004
Rule to meet a 10.9 SEER standard. As
previously mentioned, when the
through-the-wall product class was
created, DOE included a provision that
the product class would expire on
January 23, 2010, after which time units
in the through-the-wall product class
could be considered part of the spaceconstrained product class. 69 FR 50997,
50998 (August 17, 2004). In the August
2004 Rule, DOE also established a
separate product class for spaceconstrained systems, requiring them to
meet a 12 SEER standard. For this direct
final rule, because the through-the-wall
product class has expired, DOE
reclassified through-the-wall products.
The product class assignment of any
product depends on that product’s
characteristics, but DOE believes that
most (if not all) of the historicallycharacterized ‘‘through-the-wall’’
products would now be assigned to one
of the space-constrained product
classes. As a result, DOE considered
through-the-wall products to be part of
the space-constrained product class for
its analyses. In addition, DOE is
updating the footnote to the table in 10
CFR 430.32(c)(2) to clarify the
classification of through-the-wall
products.
In the preliminary analysis, DOE
sought feedback on this classification
and potential market shifts which may
result from considering the former
through-the-wall products to be spaceconstrained products. Ingersoll Rand
commented that replacement units of all
types have to contend with the space
constraints of the existing installation,
and the intended benefit of minimum
efficiency standards would be severely
diminished if special treatment of the
space-constrained products is
continued. (CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No. 66
at p. 2)
Federal law does not allow DOE to
promulgate efficiency standards that
would result in the unavailability in the
United States in any covered product
type (or class) of performance
characteristics (including reliability),
features, sizes, capacities, and volumes
that are substantially the same as those
currently on the market. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(4)) The space-constrained
product class acts as a safe harbor for
product types available before 2001
whose efficiency is limited by physical
dimensions that are rigidly constrained
by the intended application. DOE
believes that through-the-wall
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equipment intended for replacement
applications can meet the definition of
space-constrained products because
they must fit into a pre-existing hole in
the wall, and a larger through-the-wall
unit would trigger a considerable
increase in the installation cost to
accommodate the larger unit. On the
other hand, while split system and
single package air conditioners and heat
pumps have certain size limitations
mainly associated with installation and
consumer preferences, these units
typically have a component installed
outdoors. Because part of the unit is
outdoors, there is more flexibility to
allow for increases in the overall unit
size. This greater flexibility with regard
to product size provides these products
with an advantage in achieving an
increased efficiency because a larger
coil can be used. Because physical size
constraints for through-the-wall
products continue to exist, DOE
determined that continuation of the
space-constrained product class is
warranted.
(ii) Large-Tonnage Products
For the preliminary analysis of
conventional central air conditioner and
heat pump product classes, DOE
selected 36,000 Btu/hour (i.e., threetons) as the representative capacity for
analysis because units at this capacity
are ubiquitous across manufacturers,
have high sales volumes, and span a
relatively large range of efficiencies.
However, large-tonnage products (i.e.,
products with cooling capacities of
approximately five tons) have additional
constraints that three-ton products do
not have, such as added installation
costs and space requirements, which
could potentially lead to different
incremental costs between efficiency
levels for three-ton units as compared to
larger-capacity units. In its preliminary
analysis, DOE determined that these
incremental cost differences between
three-ton units and large-tonnage units
were not large enough to necessitate a
large-tonnage product class, but sought
comment on the treatment of largertonnage products in the analysis.
Ingersoll Rand stated that in the past
there have not been sufficient
differences to justify a separate largetonnage product class. However, when
considering the EER metric, Ingersoll
Rand asserted that the marketability,
serviceability, and installation cost
differences are substantial enough to
warrant a separate product class. (CAC:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p. 2) Rheem
noted that achieving higher efficiency in
large-tonnage products is more difficult
because of size limitations in the coils
and the air handler, and that there are
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other issues such as additional
refrigerant charge and handling issues
associated with the larger size. (CAC:
Rheem, No. 76 at p. 3)
For this direct final rule, DOE only
considered an EER minimum
conservation standard for the consensus
agreement TSL (see section V.A for
more details about the TSLs analyzed).
The consensus agreement TSL has
separate EER levels for large-tonnage
products to account for the unique
characteristics of those products that
lead to increased costs. DOE believes
that the impacts of unit size on EER are
enough to justify a separate product
class for large tonnage units, but does
not believe these impacts on SEER are
enough to justify a separate product
class. Therefore, DOE believes a large
tonnage product class is applicable for
the consensus agreement TSL due to the
EER standard. Because DOE is not
considering minimum EER standards for
the other TSLs, DOE did not establish a
separate product class for large-tonnage
products for other TSLs. However, DOE
has determined that the differences
among products with different cooling
capacities are substantial enough to
justify an expansion of the engineering
analysis to two, three, and five tons for
split systems. See section IV.C.5.b of
today’s direct final rule for further
information on DOE’s approach to
scaling the analysis at the representative
cooling capacity to additional cooling
capacities.
(iii) Blower-Coil and Coil-Only
Designation for Split System Air
Conditioners
In replacement applications for splitsystem air conditioners, consumers are
presented with two options: (1) Replace
a portion of their system, or (2) replace
the entire system. For the first option, if
a consumer has a furnace installed, and
a portion of the air conditioning system
(i.e., condensing unit or evaporator coil)
fails, the consumer may choose to only
replace the air conditioning portion of
the system. This scenario involves the
replacement of a condensing unit and
an evaporator coil used with the
existing blower fan in the furnace. In
these applications, manufacturers are
constrained by the efficiency of the fan
in the installed furnace, and they only
have the ability to modify the
condensing unit or evaporator coil to
achieve the desired efficiency. These
systems are referred to as ‘‘coil-only’’
systems and are tested and rated using
the combination of a specific
condensing unit and evaporator coil
with a default indoor fan energy
consumption specified in the DOE test
procedure. Because the default indoor
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fan energy consumption value specified
in the test procedure is not for a highefficiency furnace fan, these types of
units are limited in the SEER levels that
they can achieve.
For the second option, if a consumer’s
entire system is replaced or installed as
one complete system (as in new
construction), the consumer has the
ability to select a combination of indoor
and outdoor units that can achieve any
efficiency within the commerciallyavailable range of efficiencies for splitsystem air conditioners because the
indoor fan efficiency no longer limits
the achievable SEER. Because the
systems are sold as specific
combinations of indoor and outdoor
units, manufacturers have the ability to
modify all portions of the system (i.e.,
condensing unit, evaporator coil, and
indoor fan blower) to achieve the
desired efficiency. These systems are
referred to as ‘‘blower-coil’’ systems and
are tested and rated using the
combination of a specific condensing
unit, evaporator coil, and indoor fan
blower. Because manufacturers have the
option to improve the efficiency of the
indoor blower fan in blower-coil
systems, the cost-efficiency relationship
is inherently different than for coil-only
systems. Both types of systems are
prevalent in the marketplace, and for
the preliminary analysis, DOE
characterized split-system air
conditioners with separate costefficiency curves for blower-coil and
coil-only systems within a single
product class.
In response to DOE’s request for
comment on establishing a single
product class for blower-coil and coilonly systems, Ingersoll Rand noted that
the distinction between coil-only and
blower-coil systems is artificial because
all systems have some means for moving
indoor air, even when rated coil-only.
(CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p. 5) In
this direct final rule, DOE is not
establishing separate product classes for
coil-only and blower-coil split system
air conditioners, and, therefore, DOE
continued to analyze them separately
within the split system air conditioner
product class for the direct final rule
analysis.
(iv) ‘‘Dual-Fuel’’ Systems
In the preliminary analysis, DOE
found that the majority of split-system
heat pumps are sold as a matched set of
indoor and outdoor units for both the
new construction and replacement
markets. However, DOE recognized that
in some instances heat pumps are used
in conjunction with gas or oil-fired
furnaces, providing a ‘‘dual-fuel’’
heating capability. Consequently, DOE
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sought input on the characterization of
the heat pump replacement market and
whether installations of matched sets of
indoor and outdoor products should be
the basis for DOE’s analysis for all heat
pumps.
Ingersoll Rand commented that DOE
should consider installations of
matched sets of indoor and outdoor
products for all heat pumps, and that
the few heat pumps in ‘‘dual-fuel’’
systems are found primarily in the
northern region of the United States.
(CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at 6)
Rheem supported this statement and
stated that heat pump installations
should be considered as matched sets.
(CAC: Rheem, No. 76 at p. 8) In
response, DOE believes the large
majority of heat pump shipments
consists of matched sets (i.e., pairing an
outdoor and indoor unit) and has
assumed that all heat pumps are
installed with matched indoor air
handlers for purposes of the direct final
rule analyses.
4. Technologies That Do Not Impact
Rated Efficiency
As part of the market and technology
assessment performed for the direct
final rule analysis, DOE developed a
comprehensive list of technologies that
would be expected to improve the
energy efficiency of furnaces and central
air conditioners and heat pumps,
including those that do not impact the
efficiency as rated by AFUE (for
furnaces), SEER (for central air
conditioners and heat pumps), and
HSPF (for heat pumps). For example,
certain technologies have the potential
to reduce the electrical energy
consumption of furnaces, but the AFUE
metric does not capture the electrical
energy use, and, therefore, such
technologies would not be used to
improve AFUE. Chapter 3 of the direct
final rule TSD contains a detailed
description of each technology that DOE
identified. Although DOE identified a
complete list of technologies that
improve efficiency, DOE only
considered in its analysis technologies
that would impact the efficiency rating
of the appliance as tested under the
applicable DOE test procedure.
Therefore, DOE excluded several
technologies from the analysis during
the technology assessment because they
do not improve the rated efficiency of
furnaces or central air conditioners and
heat pumps. Technologies that DOE
determined have an impact on the rated
efficiency were carried through to the
screening analysis and are discussed in
section IV.B, which also contains the
technologies that were considered as
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part of the standby mode and off mode
analyses.
In response to DOE’s preliminary
analysis for central air conditioners and
heat pumps, ACEEE remarked that DOE
eliminated technologies that save energy
in real-world conditions or would
require an additional performance
metric, but do not improve the SEER or
HSPF rating according to the current
DOE test procedure. ACEEE stated that
as a result, DOE screened out many
important technologies in the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary analysis. (CAC: ACEEE, No.
72 at p. 4) Similarly, during the public
meeting to discuss the furnaces RAP,
ACEEE commented that the initial
screening-out of technologies based on
their impact on AFUE, as opposed to
end-use efficiency, is unnecessarily
restrictive to DOE’s consideration of
options. (FUR: ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p. 149)
A product’s efficiency rating under
the applicable Federal test procedure
determines whether it meets a particular
minimum efficiency standard. An
individual technology is relevant in the
rulemaking process only to the extent
that the technology has the potential to
raise the efficiency rating of a product
as measured under the test procedure.
Therefore, DOE removes from
consideration technologies that have no
impact on a product’s rating. Major
changes to the DOE test procedures
would be required to update the test
procedures to include provisions that
account for the impact of certain
technologies on product efficiency,
which would significantly delay the
standards rulemaking such that DOE
would not be able to meet its deadline
of June 30, 2011, for publishing the final
rule for these products. However,
potential changes in the test procedures
could be considered during the next
round of test procedure rulemakings for
these products. DOE believes that such
delays may reduce energy savings to the
Nation from amended standards (if the
compliance date must be delayed).
Therefore, in this rulemaking, DOE will
continue to exclude technologies that do
not improve the energy efficiency
ratings of residential furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
as tested by the applicable DOE test
procedures.
For residential furnaces, DOE has
determined that the following
technologies would not impact AFUE as
it is rated using the DOE test procedure:
(1) Infrared burners; (2) positive shut-off
valves for oil burner nozzles; (3)
improved blower efficiency; and (4)
micro combined heat and power. DOE
did not analyze these technologies
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further because the technology either
does not improve AFUE or there are
insufficient data available to
demonstrate an AFUE benefit of the
technology.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, DOE has determined that the
following technologies would not
impact the SEER and HSPF as
calculated using the DOE test
procedure: (1) Condenser fan motor
controllers; (2) liquid-suction heat
exchangers; and (3) heat pump defrost
mechanisms. DOE did not analyze these
technologies further because the
technology either does not increase the
SEER or HSPF ratings, or there are
insufficient data available to
demonstrate a SEER or HSPF benefit of
the technology.
In response to the technology
assessment performed for the
preliminary analysis, DOE received
feedback from several interested parties.
ACEEE noted that in the preliminary
analysis, DOE excluded advanced
defrost controls for heat pumps that can
save significant amounts of energy at
low relative humidity outdoors. (CAC:
ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 4) Regarding solarassist products, EEI stated that this
technology has no influence on units in
terms of cooling efficiency as measured
by SEER or EER. (CAC: EEI, No. 75 at
p. 5) Ingersoll Rand commented that
solar-assist technology should be
excluded because it does not improve
the operating efficiency of the
refrigeration cycle. (CAC: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 66 at p. 9) Southern remarked
that there would need to be significant
changes made to the test procedure to
measure the solar-assist contribution.
Additionally, a solar-assist component
could potentially be used to qualify a
unit at a minimum SEER level and then
removed later, resulting in unit
operation at levels below the minimum
standard. (CAC: Southern, No. 73 at p.
3) Rheem commented that technological
feasibility of high-volume manufacture,
installation, and servicing of both solarassist and three-stage heat pumps has
not been established (CAC: Rheem, No.
76 at p. 11) Regarding three-stage heat
pumps, Ingersoll Rand stated that the
HSPF values for these products are not
higher than conventional single-stage
systems, because compressor capacity is
not the only limiting factor on lowtemperature heating capacity. (CAC:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 66 at p. 9)
In response to these comments, DOE
reassessed its preliminary views on the
technologies in question. DOE revisited
its conclusion regarding advanced
defrost controls in the preliminary
analysis, and found that advanced
defrost controls can increase the HSPF
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of heat pumps according to the DOE test
procedure. Accordingly, DOE has
considered advanced defrost controls in
the analyses for the direct final rule.
Regarding solar-assist technology,
DOE has determined that this
technology has no impact on SEER or
HSPF using the DOE test procedure,
and, therefore, DOE did not consider it
as a technology option for the screening
and engineering analyses. Similarly,
three-stage heat pumps appear to have
no impact on SEER or HSPF using the
DOE test procedure, and therefore, DOE
decided not to consider it as a
technology option for analysis.
B. Screening Analysis
DOE uses the following four screening
criteria to determine which design
options are suitable for further
consideration in a standards
rulemaking:
1. Technological feasibility. DOE will
consider technologies incorporated in
commercial products or in working
prototypes to be technologically
feasible.
2. Practicability to manufacture,
install, and service. If mass production
and reliable installation and servicing of
a technology in commercial products
could be achieved on the scale
necessary to serve the relevant market at
the time the standard comes into effect,
then DOE will consider that technology
practicable to manufacture, install, and
service.
3. Adverse impacts on product utility
or product availability. If DOE
determines a technology would have
significant adverse impact on the utility
of the product to significant subgroups
of consumers, or would result in the
unavailability of any covered product
type with performance characteristics
(including reliability), features, sizes,
capacities, and volumes that are
substantially the same as products
generally available in the United States
at the time, it will not consider this
technology further.
4. Adverse impacts on health or
safety. If DOE determines that a
technology will have significant adverse
impacts on health or safety, it will not
consider this technology further.
10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A,
sections (4)(a)(4) and (5)(b).
In response to the screening criteria
outlined in the furnace RAP, ACEEE
argued that, although it is inappropriate
to preclude from initial consideration
technologies that are not widely used in
the U.S., it may be appropriate to
eliminate them in the screening analysis
after adequate consideration if DOE
finds the labor force to be insufficient to
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adequately manufacture, sell, and
service products on the scale necessary
to serve the relevant market by the
compliance date of the amended
standard. (FUR: ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 148–151)
ACEEE also commented that DOE
should screen in technology options
that are not used in the United States,
but that are used internationally. (FUR:
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p.2)
In response, DOE considers a
complete list of technology options in
the market and technology assessment,
including those used on the
international market, and then examines
each technology that impacts the rated
efficiency to determine if the four
screening criteria are met. International
technology options are treated no
differently than those that are domestic
and must meet all four screening
criteria, including practicability to
manufacture, install, and service on the
scale necessary to serve the U.S. market
by the compliance date. If DOE
determines that a technology option
does not meet all of the relevant criteria,
it will eliminate that technology option
from further consideration.
1. Furnaces
DOE identified the following
technology options that could improve
the AFUE rating of residential furnaces:
(1) Condensing secondary heat
exchanger for non-weatherized furnaces;
(2) heat exchanger improvements for
non-weatherized furnaces; (3)
condensing and near-condensing
technologies for weatherized gas
furnaces; (4) two-stage or modulating
combustion; (5) pulse combustion; (6)
low NOX premix burners; (7) burner
derating; (8) insulation improvements;
(9) off-cycle dampers; (10) concentric
venting; (11) low-pressure, air-atomized
oil burner; (12) high-static oil burner;
and (13) delayed-action oil pump
solenoid valve.
In response to DOE’s request for
comments on technologies in the
furnaces RAP, Ingersoll Rand
commented that all of the technology
options that are technologically feasible
and economically justified for furnaces
are already incorporated by
manufacturers into their current
products, and that there are no new
efficiency-benefitting technologies on
the horizon. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 2)
DOE notes that a large amount of
research regarding technology options
for improving the efficiency of furnaces
has already been conducted by industry
and others. However, DOE’s initial list
of technology options identified in the
market and technology assessment
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includes all technology options that
could improve rated efficiency, without
regard to technological feasibility or
economic justification (a matter
considered in other downstream
analyses). Each technology option is
reviewed during the screening analysis
according to the four screening criteria.
If a prototype or other technology option
is ‘‘screened in,’’ DOE further considers
it in the engineering analysis regardless
of whether it is already widely used in
the market.
efficiencies without the use of pulse
combustion.
Finally, burner derating (i.e., reducing
the burner firing rate) lessens heat
output from the furnace. As such,
burner derating was eliminated from
further consideration due to its
significant adverse impacts on product
utility to the consumer.
For more detail regarding each
technology option and the screening
process, see chapters 3 and 4 of the TSD
accompanying today’s notice.
a. Screened-Out Technology Options
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
DOE identified the following
technologies that could improve the
SEER and/or HSPF efficiency ratings of
central air conditioners and heat pumps:
(1) Higher-efficiency compressors; (2)
higher-efficiency fan motors; (3) higherefficiency fan blades; (4) improvements
to baseline coils; (5) micro-channel heat
exchangers; (6) flat-tube heat
exchangers; (7) heat pump defrost
controls; (8) inverter technology; and (9)
high-efficiency expansion valves.
After eliminating those technologies
which did not increase the SEER or
HSPF ratings (as described in section
IV.A.4), DOE subjected the remaining
technologies listed above to the four
screening criteria. DOE determined that
each of the technologies listed above
passed all four of the screening criteria,
and thus, DOE considered those
technologies further in the downstream
analyses.
In response to the central air
conditioner and heat pump preliminary
analysis, DOE received comments from
interested parties suggesting the
inclusion of inverter-driven components
as a technology option in the analysis.
Daikin noted that inverter technology
can substantially increase the energy
efficiency of central air conditioners and
should be considered as a technology
option. (CAC: Daikin, No. 63 at p. 2)
Further, Daikin also commented that
inverter technology is in widespread use
outside of the United States, which
demonstrates that it is not costprohibitive, and the technology is not
proprietary. (CAC: Daikin, No. 63 at p.
4) Northwest Power and Conservation
Council (NPCC) remarked that inverter
technology is already used domestically
in ductless mini-splits, and the
technology is applicable to both
conventional split system and packaged
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
(CAC: NPCC, No. 74 at 5)
After considering these comments,
DOE believes that inverter technology is
a non-proprietary method of improving
the SEER and HSPF ratings of central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
DOE excluded six of the technologies
listed above from consideration in this
rulemaking based on one or more of the
four screening criteria. The technology
options that DOE ‘‘screened out’’
include: (1) Condensing and nearcondensing technologies for
weatherized gas furnaces; (2) pulse
combustion; (3) low NOX premix
burners; (4) burner derating; (5)
advanced forms of insulation; and (6)
low-pressure, air-atomized oil burner.
The following discussion explains
DOE’s rationale for screening out these
technologies.
Due to lack of evidence of
technological feasibility, DOE screened
out: Condensing and near-condensing
technologies for weatherized furnaces;
low NOX premix burners; advanced
forms of insulation (including foam
insulation, vacuum insulation panels,
gas-filled panels, aerogel insulation, and
evacuated panels); and low-pressure,
air-atomizing oil burners. To the best of
DOE’s knowledge, none of these
technologies have been successfully
demonstrated in the design of a
commercially-available furnace model
or a working prototype. Therefore, they
were eliminated from further
consideration.
Pulse combustion was screened out
due to concerns about adverse impacts
on safety. Although products with this
technology are generally safe,
discussions with manufacturers
indicated that the same or similar
efficiencies could be achieved using
other technologies that do not operate
with positive pressure in the heat
exchanger. In pulse combustion
systems, the positive pressure in the
heat exchanger could cause hazardous
combustion products (e.g., carbon
monoxide) to leak into the home if
fatigue caused the heat exchanger to
breach. DOE concluded that the
efficiency-related benefits of these
products in terms of AFUE do not
outweigh the possible adverse impacts
on health or safety, especially given that
manufacturers already achieve high
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Accordingly, DOE included inverter
technology as a technology option in its
analysis.
In response to DOE’s request for
comment on the preliminary screening
analysis, ACEEE questioned DOE’s
decision to screen out several important
technologies, including modulating
compressors and condenser fans. (CAC:
ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 4) However, DOE
believes that the higher-efficiency fan
motors and higher-efficiency
compressors technology options
encompass the technologies that ACEEE
identified. Therefore, DOE did not
identify those technologies as separate
technologies in the preliminary
analysis, but both modulating
compressors and modulating condenser
fans were considered in the engineering
analysis.
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
As discussed above, DOE is required
by EPCA, as amended by EISA 2007, to
amend its test procedures for furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps in order to address standby
mode and off mode energy consumption
of these products. (42 U.S.C.
6295(gg)(2)) As explained in the October
20, 2010 test procedure final rule for
furnaces and boilers, DOE determined
that it was not technically feasible to set
an integrated metric encompassing
active mode, standby mode, and off
mode, so the Department adopted a
separate metric to address standby mode
and off mode energy consumption. 75
FR 64621, 64626–27. Accordingly, DOE
conducted a separate screening analysis
for standby mode and off mode
technologies. DOE identified the
following technology options that could
improve the standby mode and off mode
efficiency rating of residential furnaces:
(1) Switching mode power supplies; (2)
toroidal transformers; and (3) a relay
that disconnects power to the blower’s
electronically-commutated motor (ECM)
while in standby mode.
DOE identified the following
technology options that could improve
the off mode efficiency rating of central
air conditioners and heat pumps: (1)
Thermostatically-controlled crankcase
heaters; (2) toroidal transformers; (3)
self-regulating (i.e., variable resistance)
crankcase heaters; (4) compressor
covers; and (5) a relay that disconnects
power to the ECM blower while in off
mode.
After applying the four screening
criteria to these technology options for
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, DOE screened out the
technology option of a control relay for
disconnecting power to the ECM blower
because of the potential for adverse
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impacts to product utility for all product
classes. DOE believes that such a design
would cause failure rates of blower
motors to increase significantly, which
would severely degrade reliability and
consumer utility of the product.
Furthermore, DOE is not aware of any
commercially-available models or
working prototypes of an ECM that
completely depowers between uses,
making the design option
technologically infeasible in the context
of this rulemaking. The remaining two
design options for furnaces were
screened in and carried forward in the
analyses. For central air conditioners
and heat pumps, the remaining four
design options were screened in and
were considered in the downstream
analyses.
The Department conducted the
engineering analyses for this rulemaking
using a combination of the efficiency
level and cost-assessment approaches
for analysis of the minimum AFUE
standards for furnaces and minimum
SEER and HSPF standards for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. More
specifically, DOE identified efficiency
levels for analysis, and then used the
cost-assessment approach to determine
the manufacturing costs at those levels.
For analyzing standby mode and off
mode electrical energy consumption
standards, DOE used the design-option
approach to develop the cost-efficiency
relationship, as explained in greater
detail in section IV.C.7. Additional
details of the engineering analysis are in
chapter 5 in the direct final rule TSD.
4. Technologies Considered
Based upon the totality of the
available information, DOE has
concluded that: (1) All of the efficiency
levels discussed in today’s notice are
technologically feasible; (2) products at
these efficiency levels could be
manufactured, installed, and serviced
on a scale needed to serve the relevant
markets; (3) these efficiency levels
would not force manufacturers to use
technologies that would adversely affect
product utility or availability; and (4)
these efficiency levels would not
adversely affect consumer health or
safety. Thus, the efficiency levels that
DOE analyzed and discusses in this
notice are all achievable through
technology options that were ‘‘screened
in’’ during the screening analysis.
1. Cost Assessment Methodology
At the start of the engineering
analysis, DOE identified the energy
efficiency levels associated with
residential furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps on the
market, as determined in the market
assessment. DOE also identified the
technologies and features that are
typically incorporated into products at
the baseline level and at the various
energy efficiency levels analyzed above
the baseline. Next, DOE selected
products for the physical teardown
analysis having characteristics of typical
products on the market at the
representative input capacity for
furnaces and representative cooling
capacity for central air conditioners and
heat pumps. DOE gathered information
from performing a physical teardown
analysis (see section IV.C.1.a) to create
detailed bills of materials that included
all components and processes used to
manufacture the products. DOE used the
bills of materials (BOMs) from the
teardowns as an input to a cost model,
which was used to calculate the
manufacturing production cost (MPC)
for products at various efficiency levels
spanning the full range of efficiencies
from the baseline to the maximum
technology available. For the central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
reexamined and revised its cost
assessment performed for the
preliminary analysis based on
additional teardowns and in response to
comments received on the preliminary
analysis. Additionally, DOE decided to
expand the analyses for split system air
conditioners to include capacities
beyond the representative capacities, as
described in section IV.C.5.
During the development of the
engineering analysis for the direct final
rule, DOE held interviews with
manufacturers to gain insight into the
C. Engineering Analysis
The engineering analysis develops
cost-efficiency relationships to
determine the manufacturing costs of
achieving increased efficiency. DOE has
identified the following three
methodologies to generate the
manufacturing costs needed for the
engineering analysis: (1) The designoption approach, which provides the
incremental costs of adding to a baseline
model design options that will improve
its efficiency; (2) the efficiency-level
approach, which provides the relative
costs of achieving increases in energy
efficiency levels, without regard to the
particular design options used to
achieve such increases; and (3) the costassessment (or reverse engineering)
approach, which provides ‘‘bottom-up’’
manufacturing cost assessments for
achieving various levels of increased
efficiency, based on detailed data as to
costs for parts and material, labor,
shipping/packaging, and investment for
models that operate at particular
efficiency levels.
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heating, ventilation, and air
conditioning (HVAC) industry, and to
request feedback on the engineering
analysis and assumptions that DOE
used. DOE used the information
gathered from these interviews, along
with the information obtained through
the teardown analysis and public
comments, to refine the assumptions
and data in the cost model. Next, DOE
derived manufacturer markups using
publicly-available furnace and central
air conditioner and heat pump industry
financial data, in conjunction with
manufacturers’ feedback. The markups
were used to convert the MPCs into
manufacturer selling prices (MSPs).
Further information on comments
received and the analytical methodology
is presented in the subsections below.
For additional detail, see chapter 5 of
the direct final rule TSD.
a. Teardown Analysis
To assemble BOMs and to calculate
the manufacturing costs of the different
components in residential furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE disassembled multiple units of
each product into their base
components and estimated the
materials, processes, and labor required
for the manufacture of each individual
component, a process referred to as a
‘‘physical teardown.’’ Using the data
gathered from the physical teardowns,
DOE characterized each component
according to its weight, dimensions,
material, quantity, and the
manufacturing processes used to
fabricate and assemble it.
DOE also used a supplementary
method, called a ‘‘virtual teardown,’’
which examines published
manufacturer catalogs and
supplementary component data to
estimate the major physical differences
between a product that was physically
disassembled and a similar product that
was not. For supplementary virtual
teardowns, DOE gathered product data
such as dimensions, weight, and design
features from publicly-available
information, such as manufacturer
catalogs. DOE also obtained information
and data not typically found in catalogs
and brochures, such as fan motor
details, gas manifold specifications, or
assembly details, from the physical
teardowns of a similar product or
through estimates based on industry
knowledge. The teardown analysis
included over 40 physical and virtual
teardowns of furnaces for the direct
final rule analysis, 31 physical and
virtual teardowns of central air
conditioners and heat pumps during the
preliminary analysis, and one additional
central air conditioner and heat pump
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teardown for the direct final rule
analysis. The additional teardowns
performed for the direct final rule
analysis allowed DOE to further refine
the assumptions used to develop the
MPCs.
The teardown analysis allowed DOE
to identify the technologies that
manufacturers typically incorporate into
their products, along with the efficiency
levels associated with each technology
or combination of technologies. The end
result of each teardown is a structured
BOM, which DOE developed for each of
the physical and virtual teardowns. The
BOMs incorporate all materials,
components, and fasteners, classified as
either raw materials or purchased parts
and assemblies, and characterize the
materials and components by weight,
manufacturing processes used,
dimensions, material, and quantity. The
BOMs from the teardown analysis were
then used as inputs to the cost model to
calculate the MPC for each product that
was torn down. The MPCs resulting
from the teardowns were then used to
develop an industry average MPC for
each product class analyzed. See
chapter 5 of the direct final rule TSD for
more details on the teardown analysis.
b. Cost Model
The cost model is a spreadsheet that
converts the materials and components
in the BOMs into dollar values based on
the price of materials, average labor
rates associated with manufacturing and
assembling, and the cost of overhead
and depreciation, as determined based
on manufacturer interviews and DOE
expertise. To convert the information in
the BOMs to dollar values, DOE
collected information on labor rates,
tooling costs, raw material prices, and
other factors. For purchased parts, the
cost model estimates the purchase price
based on volume-variable price
quotations and detailed discussions
with manufacturers and component
suppliers. For fabricated parts, the
prices of raw metal materials (e.g., tube,
sheet metal) are estimated on the basis
of 5-year averages (from 2005 to 2010).
The cost of transforming the
intermediate materials into finished
parts is estimated based on current
industry pricing. For the central air
conditioners and heat pumps analysis,
DOE updated all of the labor rates,
tooling costs, raw material prices, the
costs of resins, and the purchased parts
costs used in the preliminary analysis
when developing costs for the direct
final rule analysis. For furnaces, there
was no preliminary analysis, and DOE
used the updated rates and costs
described in the preceding sentence
when conducting the direct final rule
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analysis. Chapter 5 of the direct final
rule TSD describes DOE’s cost model
and definitions, assumptions, data
sources, and estimates.
Ingersoll Rand commented on the
material prices collected for use in the
cost model, noting that due to the
volatility and overall increasing trend of
material prices, 5-year average material
prices will potentially be an
underestimation of current material
prices, which could lead to significant
errors. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006
at p. 5)
DOE acknowledges Ingersoll Rand’s
concerns about the material costs used
in the engineering analysis because a
large portion of the manufacturer
production cost can typically be
attributed to raw materials, the price of
which can fluctuate greatly from year to
year. However, DOE uses a 5-year span
to attempt to normalize the fluctuating
prices experienced in the metal
commodities markets and screen out
temporary dips or spikes. DOE believes
a 5-year span is the longest span that
would still provide appropriate
weighting to current prices experienced
in the market. DOE updates the 5-year
span for metal prices based on a review
of updated commodity pricing data,
which point to continued increases.
Consequently, DOE calculated a new 5year average materials price using the
U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price
Indices (PPIs) 30 for various raw metal
materials from 2005 to 2010 for use in
this rulemaking. The updated material
prices incorporate the changes within
each material industry and account for
inflation. DOE also used BLS PPI data
to update current market pricing for
other input materials such as plastic
resins and purchased parts. Finally,
DOE adjusted all averages to 2009$
using the gross domestic product (GDP)
implicit price deflator.31 See chapter 5
of the direct final rule TSD for
additional details.
c. Manufacturing Production Cost
Once the cost estimates for all the
components in each teardown unit were
finalized, DOE totaled the cost of
materials, labor, and direct overhead
used to manufacture a product in order
to calculate the manufacturer
production cost. The total cost of the
product was broken down into two
30 For more information, visit the BLS Web site
at https://www.bls.gov/ppi/.
31 The GDP implicit price deflator is an economic
metric that accounts for inflation by converting
output measured at current prices into constantdollar GDP. For more information, visit the Bureau
of Economic Analysis Web site at https://
www.bea.gov.
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main costs: (1) The full manufacturer
production cost, referred to as MPC; and
(2) the non-production cost, which
includes selling, general, and
administration (SG&A) costs; the cost of
research and development; and interest
from borrowing for operations or capital
expenditures. DOE estimated the MPC
at each efficiency level considered for
each product class, from the baseline
through the max-tech. After
incorporating all of the assumptions
into the cost model, DOE calculated the
percentages attributable to each element
of total production cost (i.e., materials,
labor, depreciation, and overhead).
These percentages are used to validate
the assumptions by comparing them to
manufacturers’ actual financial data
published in annual reports, along with
feedback obtained from manufacturers
during interviews. DOE uses these
production cost percentages in the MIA
(see section IV.I).
DOE revised the cost model
assumptions used for the central air
conditioner and heat pumps
preliminary analysis based on
additional teardown analysis, updated
pricing, and additional manufacturer
feedback, which resulted in refined
MPCs and production cost percentages.
For furnaces, DOE made cost model
assumptions based on teardown
analysis, publicly-available information,
and manufacturer feedback. DOE
calculated the average product cost
percentages by product type (i.e.,
furnace, central air conditioner, heat
pump) as well as by product class (e.g.,
non-weatherized gas furnace, splitsystem air conditioner) due to the large
variations in production volumes,
fabrication and assembly costs, and
other assumptions that affect the
calculation of the product’s total MPC.
Chapter 5 of the direct final rule TSD
presents DOE’s estimates of the MPCs
for this rulemaking, along with the
different percentages attributable to
each element of the production costs
that comprise the total product MPC.
d. Cost-Efficiency Relationship
The result of the engineering analysis
is a cost-efficiency relationship. DOE
created a separate relationship for each
input capacity analyzed for each
residential furnace product class
examined for this direct final rule. DOE
also created 12 cost-efficiency curves
representing the cost-efficiency
relationship for each central air
conditioner and heat pump product
class (except for the space-constrained
product classes), as well as products
having different capacities within the
split air conditioner and split heat
pump product classes. A cost-efficiency
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relationship was not developed for the
space constrained product classes
because the max-tech efficiency level is
the same as the baseline efficiency level.
In order to develop the cost-efficiency
relationships for furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
examined the cost differential to move
from one efficiency level to the next for
each manufacturer. DOE used the
results of teardowns on a market share
weighted-average basis to determine the
industry average cost increase to move
from one efficiency level to the next.
Additional details on how DOE
developed the cost-efficiency
relationships and related results are
available in the chapter 5 of the direct
final rule TSD. Chapter 5 of the direct
final rule TSD also presents these costefficiency curves in the form of energy
efficiency versus MPC. Cost-efficiency
curves relating HSPF to MPC can be
created by using the relationship
between SEER and HSPF that DOE
derived (see section IV.C.6).
The results indicate that, for both
furnaces and central air conditioners/
heat pumps, cost-efficiency
relationships are nonlinear. In other
words, as efficiency increases,
manufacturing becomes more difficult
and more costly. For furnaces, a large
cost increase is evident between noncondensing and condensing efficiency
levels due to the requirement for a
secondary heat exchanger, and another
large increase is evident at the max-tech
efficiency level which employs
continuously-modulating operation. For
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
large increases in cost are evident at
efficiency levels requiring highefficiency compressors and fan motors.
In response to the furnace RAP,
ACEEE stated at the public meeting that
DOE’s depiction of the cost-efficiency
relationship is a static one that does not
reflect the time-variability of the MPCs
subsequent to adoption of amended
energy conservation standards. The
commenter argued that DOE’s depiction
does not reflect the consistent decline in
the cost of manufactured products
relative to the consumer price index
(CPI). ACEEE requested that DOE
complement the static cost-efficiency
depiction with a more thorough
retrospective analysis. (FUR: ACEEE,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at p. 153) In response, HARDI cautioned
that a time-variable analysis of the costefficiency relationship could neglect the
effect on the marketplace of peak price
points that result from adoption and
implementation of amended AFUE
standards. (FUR: HARDI, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at p.
155) In other words, HARDI believes
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that such an analysis suggested by
ACEEE would not account for the peak
prices that occur shortly after a new
standard is implemented.
In response, DOE notes that trends in
the CPI reflect changes in consumer
price that arise from a host of factors,
including a change in market mix,
market structure, profitability and
manufacturing cost (including labor,
capital, and energy costs), the cost of
raw materials, and technological
change. Historical averages of some of
these factors are already used in DOE’s
analysis. A more sophisticated
projection of consumer price depends
on the availability of credible, publiclyvetted tools for making such projections,
as well as an expectation that such tools
will enhance the robustness, accuracy,
or usefulness of the analysis. Such a tool
does not currently exist, and DOE is not
convinced that development of such a
tool would significantly benefit energy
conservation standard rulemakings,
when it is already possible to conduct
a straightforward calculation of the
effect of different product cost
assumptions on consumer payback. In
the absence of a suitable tool, DOE
believes that holding current
manufacturing costs steady into the
future provides the best balance
between analytical transparency,
credibility, and expected accuracy.
DOE’s decision not to perform a
historical analysis of the cost-efficiency
relationship allays HARDI’s concern
that a retrospective analysis would
ignore one-time peak price points that
would create the most significant
burden on the marketplace.
e. Manufacturer Markup
To account for manufacturers’ nonproduction costs and profit margin, DOE
applies a non-production cost multiplier
(the manufacturer markup) to the full
MPC. The resulting manufacturer selling
price (MSP) is the price at which the
manufacturer can recover all production
and non-production costs and earn a
profit. To meet new or amended energy
conservation standards, manufacturers
often introduce design changes to their
product lines that result in increased
manufacturer production costs.
Depending on the competitive
environment for these particular
products, some or all of the increased
production costs may be passed from
manufacturers to retailers and
eventually to customers in the form of
higher purchase prices. As production
costs increase, manufacturers typically
incur additional overhead. The MSP
should be high enough to recover the
full cost of the product (i.e., full
production and non-production costs)
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and yield a profit. The manufacturer
markup has an important bearing on
profitability. A high markup under a
standards scenario suggests
manufacturers can readily pass along
the increased variable costs and some of
the capital and product conversion costs
(the one-time expenditures) to
consumers. A low markup suggests that
manufacturers will not be able to
recover as much of the necessary
investment in plant and equipment.
To calculate the manufacturer
markups, DOE used 10–K reports
submitted to the U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC) by the six
publicly-owned HVAC companies. (SEC
10–K reports can be found using the
search database available at: https://
www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/
webusers.htm.) The financial figures
necessary for calculating the
manufacturer markup are net sales,
costs of sales, and gross profit. For
furnaces, DOE averaged the financial
figures spanning the years 2004 to 2008
in order to calculate the markups. For
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE updated the financial figures used
in the preliminary analysis (which
spanned 2003 to 2007) by using 10–K
reports spanning from 2004 to 2008. To
calculate the average gross profit margin
for the periods analyzed for each firm,
DOE summed the gross profit for all of
the aforementioned years and then
divided the result by the sum of the net
sales for those years. DOE presented the
calculated markups to manufacturers
during the interviews for the direct final
rule (see section IV.C.1.g). DOE
considered the feedback from
manufacturers in order to supplement
the calculated markup and refined the
markup to better reflect the residential
furnace and central air conditioner and
heat pump markets. DOE developed the
manufacturer markup by weighting the
feedback from manufacturers on a
market share basis, since manufacturers
with larger market shares more
significantly affect the market average.
DOE used a constant markup to reflect
the MSPs of both the baseline products
and higher-efficiency products. DOE
used this approach because amended
standards may transform high-efficiency
products, which currently are
considered premium products, into
baselines. See chapter 5 of the direct
final rule TSD for more details about the
manufacturer markup calculation.
In response to the markup calculation
methodology outlined in the furnaces
RAP, and to the markup multiplier of
1.32 used in the central air conditioner
and heat pump preliminary analysis,
Ingersoll Rand argued that DOE has
consistently underestimated
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manufacturer markup in past
rulemakings. According to Ingersoll
Rand, DOE has a tendency to
underestimate unapplied labor that is
involved in a wide range of support
activities that are not associated with
production, including research and
development, engineering, field service,
marketing, training, human resources,
finance, legal, and business
management. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 6; CAC: Ingersoll Rand, No.
66 at p. 5)
In response, DOE’s manufacturer
markups include all non-production
costs (with the exception of shipping,
which is calculated separately as
described below) and profit. As noted
above, as part of the process for
developing manufacturer markups, DOE
solicits manufacturer feedback during
MIA interviews and incorporates that
feedback on a market-share weighted
average basis to refine the markups that
are derived from financial data.
Although DOE recognizes that the
manufacturer markup will vary from
one manufacturer to another, DOE
believes this process allows for the
development of a manufacturer markup
that reflects the typical manufacturer
markup in the industry. As a result, for
the direct final rule analysis, DOE
modified the markups for central air
conditioners and heat pumps based
upon additional manufacturer input.
The markup used in the direct final rule
analysis for split system air conditioners
and heat pumps was 1.30, while the
markup for packaged systems was 1.28.
For SDHV systems, the markup
remained 1.32. Because no additional
data were provided to support a change,
DOE developed a markup for furnaces
for the direct final rule based on the
methodology outlined in the furnaces
RAP.
f. Shipping Costs
Manufacturers of HVAC products
typically pay for freight to the first step
in the distribution chain. Freight is not
a manufacturing cost, but because it is
a substantial cost incurred by the
manufacturer, DOE is accounting for
shipping costs of furnaces and central
air conditioners and heat pumps
separately from the other nonproduction costs that comprise the
manufacturer markup. To calculate MSP
for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, DOE multiplied the
MPC determined from the cost model by
the manufacturer markup and added
shipping costs. More specifically, DOE
calculated shipping costs based on use
of a typical 53-foot straight frame trailer
with a storage volume of 4,240 cubic
feet.
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37453
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis,
shipping costs were preliminarily
determined on a weight basis at $0.20
per pound, based on quotes from freight
shipping services. However, ACEEE
suggested that shipping costs would be
more accurately estimated if
calculations were based on product
volume, rather than weight. (CAC:
ACEEE, No. 72 at p.7)
DOE reexamined of the physical
attributes of the products (e.g., the outer
shipping dimensions, the shipping
weight) and consulted with
manufacturers regarding their shipping
practices, and as a result of this
additional inquiry, DOE determined that
manufacturers were likely to ‘‘cube-out’’
a truck (i.e., run out of space inside the
truck) before reaching the maximum
weight capacity for the truckload.
Therefore, the limiting factor for
transporting these products would be
the size of the products rather than their
weight. Accordingly, as noted above,
DOE revised its methodology for the
direct final rule in terms of shipping
costs by determining a product’s
shipping cost as a function of its volume
for both central air conditioners and
heat pumps and residential furnaces. To
do so, DOE first calculated the cost per
cubic foot of space on a trailer, based on
a cost of $2,500 per shipping load and
the standard dimensions of a 53-foot
trailer. DOE examined the average sizes
of products in each product class at
each efficiency and capacity
combination analyzed. DOE then
estimated the shipping costs by
multiplying the product volume by the
cost per cubic foot of space on the
trailer. For central air conditioners and
heat pumps, where product size greatly
depends on efficiency, DOE calculated a
separate volumetric cost for each
efficiency level. However, furnaces,
which typically do not vary in size
based on efficiency, had the same
shipping cost across the range of
efficiencies for a given capacity. In
determining volumetric shipping costs,
DOE also revised its estimates based on
manufacturer feedback regarding
product mix on each trailer, packing
efficiency, and methods and equipment
used to load the trailers. Chapter 5 of
the direct final rule TSD contains
additional details about DOE’s shipping
cost assumptions and DOE’s shipping
cost estimates.
g. Manufacturer Interviews
Throughout the rulemaking process,
DOE has sought and continues to seek
feedback and insight from interested
parties that would improve the
information used in its analyses. DOE
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interviewed manufacturers as a part of
the direct final rule manufacturer
impact analysis (see section IV.I.4).
During the interviews, DOE sought
feedback on all aspects of its analyses
for residential furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps. For the
engineering analysis, DOE discussed the
analytical assumptions and estimates,
cost model, and cost-efficiency curves
with HVAC manufacturers. DOE
considered all the information
manufacturers provided when refining
the cost model and assumptions.
However, DOE incorporated equipment
and manufacturing process figures into
the analysis as averages in order to
avoid disclosing sensitive information
about individual manufacturers’
products or manufacturing processes.
More details about the manufacturer
interviews are contained in chapter 12
of the direct final rule TSD.
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2. Representative Products
a. Furnaces
DOE based its engineering analysis on
teardown analysis of a representative
sample of products from the furnace
market. DOE selected units for teardown
that have characteristics that are
representative of most furnaces
available on today’s market. In the
rulemaking analysis plan, DOE
identified several characteristics
common to baseline furnaces in each
product class, including a representative
capacity for analysis, and focused the
teardown selection for furnaces on
products that exhibited those
representative characteristics. (However,
DOE also scaled its analysis to products
outside the representative capacity, as
described in section IV.C.5.)
DOE received several comments about
the representative input capacity
proposed in the furnaces RAP. AHRI
remarked that each manufacturer offers
their products in different input
capacities, and, as such, DOE should not
lock its analysis into discrete input
capacities. (FUR: AHRI, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 176–177)
Likewise, Ingersoll Rand cautioned
against comparing dissimilar products
(with respect to number of burners and
heat exchangers) chosen simply because
their input capacities are close. Instead,
the commenter suggested surveying the
furnace market across efficiencies and
capacities to characterize the number of
heat exchangers and burners for each
capacity and efficiency. Then, based on
the results of this survey, DOE should
select teardown units and determine the
limits of interpolation. Ingersoll Rand
further suggested that the sample
selection should include products from
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a broad cross-section of manufacturers,
concentrating on those with market
shares greater than 10 percent, a
representative spread of installation
configurations, and a bias towards the
most common heating and cooling air
flow capacities. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at pp. 156–157; FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
No. 1.3.006 at p. 4) ACEEE stated that
many furnaces with the same input
capacities are shipped with differing
blower motor power and fan diameter,
considerations to which DOE should be
sensitive in its analysis. (FUR: ACEEE,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at p. 178)
In response, for its direct final rule
analysis, DOE attempted to compare
similar furnace products made by a
broad cross-section of manufacturers
when choosing models for teardowns.
DOE included factors such as blower
characteristics and the number of
burners and heat exchangers when
choosing models for teardown. DOE
modified the representative
characteristics to include an airflow rate
of 1,200 cubic feet per minute for a
typical furnace (which corresponds to
the three-ton representative capacity for
central air conditioners and heat
pumps). In addition, DOE recognizes
that manufacturers may offer products
at varying input capacities, and as a
result, DOE did not restrict its analysis
to discrete representative input
capacities, but rather considered all
models that were capable of satisfying a
similar heating load. While DOE
focused its analysis for furnaces around
the representative 80,000 Btu/h input
capacity, DOE also considered other
units at input capacities near the
representative capacity for
manufacturers that do not manufacture
products at the representative capacity.
DOE also received feedback from
Ingersoll Rand that two of the input
capacities identified in the RAP to
represent the furnace market are not
common in the market. The company
suggested that input capacities of 80,000
Btu/h and 90,000 Btu/h are more
appropriate than 75,000 Btu/h for nonweatherized gas furnaces and
weatherized gas furnaces, respectively.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p.
2)
DOE reexamined the availability of
input capacities on the furnace market
and determined that 80,000 Btu/h is a
very common and representative input
capacity for non-weatherized gas
furnaces. Thus, for the direct final rule
analysis, DOE considered 80,000 Btu/h
as the representative capacity for nonweatherized gas furnaces. As described
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in section III.G, DOE did not perform an
analysis for weatherized gas furnaces.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE proposed
retaining the representative
characteristics identified in the 2007
rulemaking, including the baseline
efficiency of 78-percent AFUE.32
Ingersoll Rand commented that a
baseline non-weatherized gas furnace
would have the following
characteristics: 80-percent AFUE;
80,000 Btu/h input capacity; induced
draft; single-stage burner; permanent
split capacitor (PSC) motor-driven,
direct-drive, forward curved blower,
sized for use with a three-ton air
conditioner; multi-poise configuration;
builder model; and hot surface igniter.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p.
3)
After reviewing the current furnaces
market, DOE agrees that the baseline
characteristics identified by Ingersoll
Rand are representative of many
furnaces on the market. Although it is
true that the majority of furnaces are
manufactured and shipped as multipoise units, the specific configuration in
which the unit operates is determined
by the configuration in the field.
Therefore, DOE based its analysis on
furnaces that could be installed in the
representative configuration, whether
multi-poise or not, and used the AFUE
rating associated with the representative
configuration.
With respect to the standby mode
energy use analysis, Lennox cautioned
that DOE should not exclude
‘‘premium’’ controls and features that
that do not improve AFUE from its
analysis, as these features could
increase the standby power
consumption of the furnace. (FUR:
Lennox, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
1.2.006 at pp. 164–165; FUR: Lennox,
No. 1.3.018 at p.4)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
performed a large number of furnace
teardowns, including some teardowns
on products with premium features that
consume electricity in standby mode
and off mode. Although the products
with premium features were included
for the standby mode and off mode
analysis, DOE did not include these
premium (non-AFUE efficiency related)
features in its engineering analysis for
analyzing amended AFUE standards, as
32 In the furnaces RAP, DOE took the position that
the baseline for non-weatherized gas furnaces was
78-percent AFUE, which is the current energy
conservation standard for non-weatherized gas
furnaces. However, DOE subsequently determined
that because the November 2007 Rule was not
vacated by the remand agreement, it will use 80percent AFUE as the baseline for the direct final
rule analyses in order to avoid violating the ‘‘antibacksliding provision’’ in 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(1).
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they could distort DOE’s estimates of
MPC at each efficiency level.
Accordingly, the baseline furnace
characteristics that DOE used in the
37455
direct final rule analysis are presented
in Table IV.1.
TABLE IV.1—CHARACTERISTICS OF REPRESENTATIVE RESIDENTIAL FURNACES
Non-Weatherized gas furnaces
Input Capacity Btu/h ..............................
Configuration ..........................................
Heat Exchanger Type ............................
Ignition Type ..........................................
Draft .......................................................
Blower Size ............................................
Transformer ............................................
Power Supply Type ................................
Mobile home gas furnaces
80,000 ........................................
Upflow ........................................
Clamshell or Tubular ..................
Hot Surface ................................
Induced ......................................
1200 cfm ....................................
40 VA Laminated Core ..............
Linear .........................................
80,000 ........................................
Downflow ....................................
Clamshell or Tubular ..................
Hot Surface ................................
Induced ......................................
1200 cfm ....................................
40 VA Laminated Core ..............
Linear .........................................
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b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
DOE reviewed all of the product
classes of residential central air
conditioners and heat pumps and chose
units for analysis that represent a crosssection of the residential central air
conditioning and heat pump market
within each product type. For the
conventional split system and single
package central air conditioner and heat
pump product classes, as well as for the
SDHV product classes, DOE selected
36,000 Btu/h (three tons of cooling
capacity) as the representative capacity
for analysis because units at this
capacity are common across
manufacturers, with high sales volumes
spanning a relatively large range of
efficiencies.
DOE acknowledges that
manufacturers tend to optimize
residential central air conditioner and
heat pump split systems around the
three-ton capacity. Therefore, DOE
expanded the engineering analysis to
include additional cooling capacities for
split system central air conditioners and
heat pumps based upon the analysis at
the representative capacity. (See section
IV.C.5.b for further information about
the scaling of the engineering analysis to
different cooling capacities.)
In the preliminary analysis, DOE was
unaware of any suitable alternative
refrigerant which could be used as a
replacement for R410a, and therefore,
considered R410a to be the only
available refrigerant option. During
manufacturer interviews, the viability of
HFO–1234YF as an alternative was
discussed. However, manufacturer
feedback indicated that this refrigerant
is still in the early phases of
development and is a more likely
replacement for R134a in automotive
applications than R410a in central air
conditioners and heat pumps. This
conclusion leads to questions about the
technological feasibility of HFO–
1234YF as a replacement. Further,
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because it is still in development, the
requirements for large scale production
of this refrigerant and the ability to
service units charged with it on a
national scale are undetermined.
DOE received comments regarding the
need for analysis on alternative
refrigerants because of a possible
hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant cap
and subsequent phase-out, which would
force the industry to find a replacement
refrigerant for R410a. Carrier did not
mention specific climate policies but
commented generally that there are
climate policies which are going to
restrict the use of HFC. However, higher
SEER equipment requires more
refrigerant charge, and, thus, it is critical
to understand the impact on cost of
refrigerant for this rulemaking. (CAC:
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 152)
Emerson noted that the cost of the
additional refrigerant could be much
higher than what is paid today due to
a possible leverage effect from a
potential ‘‘cap-and-trade’’ regime.33
(CAC: Public Meeting Transcript at p.
153) DOE does not conduct analyses
based on potential legislation because
doing so would be highly speculative,
and the lack of a suitable alternative
refrigerant adds another speculative
layer of uncertainty. Therefore, DOE
decided not to alter its analyses and did
not consider alternative refrigerants in
the direct final rule analyses.
DOE did not receive any comments on
the other representative characteristics
chosen for the baseline unit for
preliminary analysis and continued to
use the same representative traits for the
direct final rule. These characteristics of
a typical baseline unit are:
• 36,000 Btu/h cooling capacity;
• Rifled copper tubes;
• Lanced aluminum fins;
33 ‘‘Cap-and-trade’’ is a market-based emissions
trading program in which the government sets a
limit on the amount of emissions and allocates
permits to emit a specified amount. Companies
with higher emissions are able to buy permits from
companies which emit less.
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Non-Weatherized oil-fired furnaces
105,000.
Upflow.
Drum.
Intermittent Ignition.
Forced.
1200 cfm.
40 VA Laminated Core.
Linear.
• Single-speed, single-capacity
compressor;
• Single-speed permanent split
capacitor (PSC) fan and blower motor;
• Expansion orifice; and
• R410a refrigerant.
3. Efficiency Levels
For each of the representative
products, DOE analyzed multiple
efficiency levels and estimated
manufacturer production costs at each
efficiency level. The following
subsections provide a description of the
full range of efficiency levels DOE
analyzed for each product class, from
the baseline efficiency level to the
maximum technologically feasible (maxtech) efficiency level.
For each product class, DOE selected
baseline units as reference points,
against which DOE measured changes
resulting from potential amended
energy conservation standards.
Generally, the baseline unit in each
product class: (1) Represents the basic
characteristics of equipment in that
class; (2) just meets current Federal
energy conservation standards, if any;
and (3) provides basic consumer utility.
DOE conducted a survey of the
residential furnace and central air
conditioner and heat pump markets to
determine what types of products are
available to consumers and to identify
the efficiency levels corresponding to
the greatest number of models. Then,
DOE established intermediate energy
efficiency levels for each of the product
classes that are representative of
efficiencies that are typically available
on the market. DOE reviewed AHRI’s
product certification directory,
manufacturer catalogs, and other
publicly-available literature to
determine which efficiency levels are
the most prevalent for each
representative product class.
DOE also determined the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible (max-tech) for
furnaces and central air conditioners
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and heat pumps, as required under 42
U.S.C. 6295(p)(1). For the representative
product within a given product class,
DOE could not identify any working
products or prototypes at higher
efficiency levels that were currently
available beyond the identified maxtech level at the time the analysis was
performed.
a. Furnaces
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(i) Baseline Efficiency Level
As discussed above, the energy
conservation standards for residential
furnaces are codified at 10 CFR
430.32(e)(1)(i), which sets forth the
existing standard levels for residential
furnaces, as well as the amended
minimum standards codified at 10 CFR
430.32(e)(1)(ii), which were set by the
November 2007 Rule (72 FR 65136
(Nov. 19, 2007)), which will require
compliance starting on November 19,
2015. At the time of publication of the
furnaces RAP, DOE believed that its
voluntary remand of the November 2007
Rule in response to a joint lawsuit
voided the furnace standards set forth
by that rule. Under this interpretation,
DOE proposed setting the baseline for
the current analysis at 78-percent AFUE
for non-weatherized gas furnaces,
weatherized gas furnaces, and oil-fired
furnaces, and at 75-percent AFUE for
mobile home gas furnaces.34 However,
since the publication of the furnaces
RAP, DOE has reevaluated its
interpretation of the effect of the
voluntary remand and determined that
because the November 2007 Rule was
not vacated, the standards promulgated
in that rule will still require compliance
for products manufactured on or after
November 19, 2015. Due to EPCA’s antibacksliding clause (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(1)), DOE cannot set minimum
standards below the levels promulgated
in the November 2007 Rule. As a result,
DOE considered the levels set in the
November 2007 Rule to represent the
baseline efficiency in each product class
for the direct final rule analysis.
Therefore, the baseline levels for the
direct final rule analysis were set at 80percent AFUE for non-weatherized gas
furnaces and mobile home furnaces, 81percent AFUE for weatherized gas
furnaces, and 82-percent AFUE for nonweatherized oil furnaces. (Note that, as
described in section III.G.2.a, DOE did
not perform an analysis for weatherized
gas furnaces, because the standards
34 Energy Conservation Standards for Residential
Furnaces Rulemaking Analysis Plan, March 11,
2010, p. 31. Available at: https://www1.eere.energy.
gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/
pdfs/furnaces_framework_rap.pdf.
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adopted for this product are already set
at the max-tech level.)
(ii) Max-Tech Efficiency Level
The ‘‘max-tech’’ efficiency levels are
the maximum technologically feasible
efficiency levels possible for each
product class. As required under 42
U.S.C. 6295(p)(1), DOE determined the
max-tech efficiency level for each
residential furnace product class. DOE
has identified the max-tech efficiency
levels as being the highest efficiencies
on the market at the representative
capacities. In the furnaces RAP, for
purposes of its analyses, DOE proposed
using max-tech efficiency levels of 97.7percent AFUE for non-weatherized gas
furnaces, 95.5-percent AFUE for mobile
home furnaces, and 97-percent AFUE
for oil-fired furnaces. In addition, DOE
proposed to use 81-percent AFUE as the
max-tech for weatherized gas furnaces
in the furnaces RAP, which DOE used
for the direct final rule analysis.
Consequently, no analysis was needed
for weatherized gas furnaces because the
standard was already set at the max-tech
level, as discussed further in section
III.G.2.a.
DOE received several comments
related to the max-tech levels proposed
in the furnaces RAP. Ingersoll Rand
stated that the max-tech level for nonweatherized gas furnaces should be 98percent AFUE. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
No. 1.3.006 at p. 3) Lennox stated
support for DOE’s proposed max-tech
levels for the non-weatherized gas
furnace and mobile home gas furnace
product classes for the purpose of
undertaking the required analysis,
although Lennox noted that it does not
believe that DOE should establish
minimum efficiency standards at maxtech levels. (FUR: Lennox, No. 1.3.018
at p. 3)
In response, DOE notes that the AFUE
requirements for furnaces established in
EPCA are specified as whole number
percentages. Additionally, in previous
rulemakings to amend standards for
furnaces, DOE has specified amended
minimum standards in terms of the
nearest whole percentage point. To
remain consistent with the original
standards in EPCA, DOE rounded the
efficiency levels being analyzed in
today’s direct final rule (including maxtech AFUE) to the nearest whole
percentages. For non-weatherized gas
furnaces and mobile home furnaces, this
results in max-tech levels of 98-percent
and 96-percent AFUE, respectively.
DOE also notes that the DOE residential
furnaces test procedure currently
provides instructions for rounding
annual operating cost and estimated
regional annual operating cost to the
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nearest dollar per year. 10 CFR
430.23(n)(1); 10 CFR 430.23(n)(3).
However, the test procedure does not
provide instructions for rounding
AFUE. This lack of specificity for
rounding may lead to uncertainty in
terms of how to complete calculations
using the reported metrics or to
discrepancies among results generated
by test laboratories for the same
product. Overall, DOE is concerned that
unless the applicable portion of DOE’s
furnace test procedures are modified,
there may be difficulties associated with
ascertaining, certifying, and reporting
compliance with the existing standards.
Therefore, to remedy this situation, DOE
is adding instructions to 10 CFR
430.23(n)(2) requiring that AFUE be
rounded to the nearest whole percentage
point.
Additionally, EEI stated that DOE
should analyze gas-fired air source heat
pumps with coefficient of performance
(COP) ratings above 1.2 as a maximum
technology option for gas furnaces.
(FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015 at p. 5) In
response, DOE reexamined the
definition of a ‘‘gas furnace.’’ DOE notes
that EPCA defines a ‘‘furnace,’’ in part,
as ‘‘an electric central furnace, electric
boiler, forced-air central furnace, gravity
central furnace, or low pressure steam
or hot water boiler.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6291(23)(C)) DOE’s definitions in the
CFR further clarify the definition of a
‘‘forced-air central furnace,’’ defining
that term as a product in which ‘‘[t]he
heat generated by the combustion of gas
or oil is transferred to the air within a
casing by conduction through heat
exchange surfaces. * * *’’ 10 CFR
430.2. DOE notes that products using
gas-fired air source heat pump
technology do not use the heat
generated by the combustion of gas or
oil to heat the circulation air, as
required under DOE’s definitions.
Therefore, DOE has concluded that
products using this technology are
outside the scope of this rulemaking
because they do not meet the definition
of a ‘‘furnace,’’ as defined by DOE.
Regarding oil-fired furnaces, Lennox
stated that it does not agree with DOE’s
max-tech level, which it believes is
unrealistic. Lennox asserted that
although condensing oil-fired furnaces
do exist in the market, they comprise a
very small minority and are, therefore,
not representative of the market and
should not be considered in the
rulemaking. Instead, Lennox urged DOE
to consider oil-fired furnaces with
AFUE values between 85-percent and
87-percent as the true max-tech level for
oil-fired furnaces. (FUR: Lennox, No.
1.3.018 at p. 3)
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While DOE does not believe that
condensing oil-fired furnaces are
representative of the market, their
existence and commercial availability
are evidence of technological feasibility.
DOE believes that this technology
warrants consideration in the analysis,
and, therefore, the condensing level was
retained for the oil-fired furnace product
class.
(iii) Efficiency Levels for Analysis
For each residential furnace product
class, DOE analyzed both the baseline
and max-tech efficiency levels, as well
as several intermediate efficiency levels.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE identified the
intermediate efficiency levels that it
proposed to include in the analysis,
based on the most common efficiencies
on the market. These levels are shown
in Table IV.2.
TABLE IV.2—EFFICIENCY LEVELS CONSIDERED IN THE RAP FOR THE RESIDENTIAL FURNACES ANALYSIS
Product class
Efficiency level
(AFUE)
(percent)
Non-weatherized Gas ...........
78
80
90
92
93
95
97.7
75
80
90
92
93
95.5
78
80
83
84
85
97
Mobile Home ........................
Oil-Fired Non-weatherized ....
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For non-weatherized gas furnaces,
Ingersoll Rand suggested performing
teardowns at 90-percent, 95-percent,
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and 98-percent AFUE with interpolation
to span the range of intermediate values.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p.
4) ACEEE suggested adding a level at
81-percent AFUE, substituting 94percent for 93-percent AFUE if there are
more models available, and keeping an
efficiency level at 95-percent, which is
the current tax credit level. (FUR:
ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p. 6)
In response to these comments, DOE
reexamined the market and reduced the
efficiency levels for analysis to the most
common efficiencies on the furnace
market. DOE determined that there are
very few products currently on the
market at 81-percent AFUE. Because
shipments are so low, DOE determined
that 81-percent AFUE did not warrant
consideration in the analysis. DOE also
examined the prevalence of 93-percent
and 94-percent AFUE products on the
market, and determined that 93-percent
AFUE models are more common.
However, upon further consideration,
DOE believes 92-percent AFUE models
are the most commonly shipped units in
this range. Therefore, DOE analyzed
only 92-percent AFUE instead of 93percent or 94-percent AFUE. DOE kept
the level at 95-percent AFUE for the
direct final rule analysis, as was
recommended by interested parties.
Rather than performing teardowns at
only 90-percent, 95-percent, and 98percent AFUE, as Ingersoll Rand
suggested, DOE performed teardowns at
every efficiency level analyzed to
provide greater accuracy in the analysis.
The baseline, max-tech, and
intermediate efficiency levels for each
furnace product class analyzed are
presented in Table IV.3. As noted above
and discussed in section III.G.2.a,
weatherized gas furnaces were not
analyzed, and as a result, the table
shows efficiency levels for only nonweatherized gas, mobile home, and nonweatherized oil furnaces.
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TABLE IV.3—EFFICIENCY LEVELS ANALYZED FOR RESIDENTIAL FURNACES
Product class
Efficiency level
(AFUE)
(percent)
Non-weatherized Gas ...........
Mobile Home ........................
Oil-Fired Non-weatherized ....
80
90
92
95
98
80
90
92
96
82
83
84
85
97
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
DOE selected baseline efficiency
levels as reference points for all of the
product classes of central air
conditioners and heat pumps and
compared these baselines to projected
changes resulting from potential
amended energy conservation
standards. Products at the baseline
efficiency in each product class
represent products with the common
characteristics of equipment in that
class that just meet current Federal
energy conservation standards, while
still providing basic consumer utility.
For each of the representative
products, DOE analyzed multiple
efficiency levels and estimated
manufacturer production costs at each
efficiency level. Table IV.4 and Table
IV.5 provide the full efficiency level
range that DOE analyzed from the
baseline efficiency level to the max-tech
efficiency level for each product class.
The highest efficiency level in each of
the seven product classes was identified
through a review of products listed in
AHRI-certified directories, manufacturer
catalogs, and other publicly-available
documents.
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In the preliminary analysis of split
system air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE only examined products at the
representative three-ton capacity. For
the direct final rule, DOE performed
additional analyses for two-ton and fiveton products. Therefore, the efficiency
levels analyzed for split system
products were expanded to include the
relevant efficiency levels at the
additional cooling capacities. For single
package central air conditioners and
heat pumps, as well as SDHV systems,
the efficiency levels did not change
from the preliminary analysis.
For space-constrained products, AHRI
certification directory listings and
manufacturer catalogs only contain
units rated at a single efficiency level.
DOE defined the baseline for spaceconstrained products as the efficiency
specified by the current Federal energy
conservation standards (i.e., 12 SEER).
This SEER value is the same as the maxtech SEER value identified in DOE’s
analysis. Therefore, DOE did not
conduct further analysis on the spaceconstrained products because the energy
conservation standards for these two
product classes are already set at the
max-tech level and cannot be amended
to provide additional savings. For
additional details, see section III.G of
this direct final rule.
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4. Results
Using the manufacturer markup and
shipping costs, DOE calculated
estimated manufacturer selling prices of
the representative furnaces and central
air conditioners and heat pumps from
the manufacturer production costs
developed using the cost model.
Chapter 5 of the TSD accompanying
today’s notice provides a full list of
manufacturer production costs and
manufacturer selling prices at each
efficiency level for each product class
and capacity analyzed, for both furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps. Chapter 5 of the TSD also
contains the estimated cost to
implement each design option that DOE
analyzed for reducing the standby mode
and off mode energy consumption of
furnaces and off mode energy
consumption of central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
5. Scaling to Additional Capacities
DOE developed MPCs for the analysis
of additional input capacities for
furnaces and cooling capacities for
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps by performing virtual
teardowns of products at input
capacities and cooling capacities other
than the representative capacities. DOE
developed a cost model for each virtual
teardown product based on physical
teardowns of representative units with a
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range of nominal capacities and from
multiple manufacturers. Whenever
possible, DOE maintained the same
product line that was used for the
physical teardown of the representative
products to allow for a direct
comparison of models at representative
capacities and models at higher and
lower capacities. For furnaces, the cost
model accounts for changes in the size
of components that would scale with
input capacity (e.g., heat exchanger
size), while components that typically
do not change based on input capacity
(e.g., gas valves, thermostats, controls)
were assumed to remain largely the
same across the different input
capacities. Similarly, for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, the cost
model accounts for changes in the size
of components that would scale with
input capacity (e.g., coil size,
compressor), while components that
typically do not change based on input
capacity (e.g., expansion valves,
electronic controls) were assumed to
remain largely the same across the
different input capacities. DOE
estimated the changes in material and
labor costs that occur at capacities
higher and lower than the representative
capacities based on observations made
during teardowns and professional
experience. Performing physical
teardowns of models outside of the
representative capacities allowed DOE
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to accurately model certain
characteristics that are not identifiable
in manufacturer literature.
a. Furnaces
DOE recognizes that there is a large
variation in the input capacity ratings of
residential furnaces beyond the
representative input capacity, which
causes large discrepancies in
manufacturer production costs. To
account for this variation, DOE analyzed
additional common input capacities (as
determined during the market
assessment) for the largest class of
residential furnaces (i.e., nonweatherized gas furnaces). DOE
performed physical teardowns of several
non-weatherized gas furnaces above and
below the representative input capacity
to gather the necessary data to
accurately scale the results from the
representative input capacity to other
input capacities. Performing teardowns
of models outside of the representative
capacity allowed DOE to accurately
model certain characteristics that are
not identifiable in manufacturer
literature. In the furnaces RAP, DOE set
forth its plans to analyze models at
input capacities of 50,000 Btu/h and
125,000 Btu/h in addition to the models
at the representative input capacity.
In comments, Ingersoll Rand stated
that the additional input capacities
which DOE planned to analyze are not
very common, and instead, the company
suggested that DOE should analyze
units at 40,000 Btu/h and 120,000 Btu/
h, as the AHRI furnace directory lists a
much greater number of models at these
capacities. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 5) ACEEE, too, favored
40,000 Btu/h for analysis, because it
argued that the smaller input capacity is
more appropriate for the heating loads
of modest-sized houses. (FUR: ACEEE,
No. 1.3.009 at pp. 6–7) At the upper
bounds of capacity, Ingersoll Rand also
commented that there are not many
condensing furnaces above 120,000 Btu/
h input capacity. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006
at p. 178) AHRI again advised DOE not
to lock into discrete capacities in its
analysis of the low and high ends of the
capacity range. (FUR: AHRI, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 1.2.006 at pp.
176–177)
In response to these comments, DOE
reevaluated the distribution of
capacities on the furnace market and
determined that the majority of nonweatherized gas furnace models on the
market are offered in 20,000 Btu/h
increments between 40,000 Btu/h and
120,000 Btu/h, with the bulk of models
at 60,000, 80,000, 100,000 and 120,000
Btu/h.
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Therefore, DOE scaled its analysis for
non-weatherized gas furnaces (using
virtual teardowns in conjunction with
physical teardowns) to 60,000 Btu/h,
100,000 Btu/h, and 120,000 Btu/h, in
addition to the analysis that was
performed for the representative input
capacity of 80,000 Btu/h. DOE selected
these three additional input capacities
to align them with the number of
additional cooling capacities being
analyzed for the central air conditioners
analysis. DOE believes that 60,000 Btu/
h is more representative of the lower
end of the capacity range than 40,000
Btu/h, which is the minimum specified
input capacity that meets DOE’s
definition.
The results of DOE’s analysis for the
additional input capacities are
presented in chapter 5 of the direct final
rule TSD. Chapter 5 also contains
additional details about the calculation
of MPCs for input capacities outside of
the representative capacity.
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
To account for the variation in the
rated cooling capacities of split system
residential central air conditioners and
heat pumps, and differences in both
usage patterns and first cost to
consumers of split system air
conditioners and heat pumps larger or
smaller than the representative capacity,
DOE developed MPCs for central air
conditioners and heat pumps at two-ton
and five-ton cooling capacities, in
addition to MPCs for the representative
three-ton units.
To develop the MPCs for the analysis
of two-ton and five-ton units, DOE used
its cost model based on teardowns of
representative units from multiple
manufacturers. DOE modified the cost
model for the representative capacity
(i.e., three-tons) to account for changes
in the size of central air conditioner and
heat pump components that would scale
with cooling capacity (e.g., evaporator
and condenser coils, outer cabinet,
packaging). DOE accurately modeled
certain other characteristics (e.g.,
compressor, fan motor, fan blades) using
information contained in manufacturer
literature.
The results of DOE’s analysis for the
additional cooling capacities are
presented in chapter 5 of the direct final
rule TSD along with details about the
calculation of central air conditioner
and heat pump MPCs.
6. Heat Pump SEER/HSPF Relationships
For heat pumps, energy conservation
standards must establish minimum
values for HSPF in addition to SEER. In
previous rulemakings (see section 4.8.1
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of the 2001 final rule TSD available at
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/residential/ac_
central_1000_r.html), analyses
performed in terms of SEER were used
as the basis for determining HSPF
standards, and DOE has continued that
approach for the current analysis.
Consequently, DOE investigated the
relationship between SEER and HSPF in
the preliminary analysis, and
reexamined that relationship for the
direct final rule analysis. As a first step
in examining the relationship, DOE
plotted the median HSPF values for
units that met or exceeded the existing
standard of 7.7 HSPF for each product
class and cooling capacity analyzed at
half-SEER increments up to 16 SEER,
and one-SEER increments from 16 SEER
up to the max-tech level. For the
preliminary analysis, DOE tentatively
proposed using a SEER–HSPF
relationship consisting of two separate
linear sections, which roughly followed
the median HSPF at each SEER. One
trend line was developed for SEER
values ranging from 13 to 16, and a
separate second trend line was
developed for SEER values above 16
SEER level. DOE proposed to use these
two different trends because a
substantial increase in the median HSPF
was evident for units with cooling
efficiencies greater than 16 SEER, which
would be more accurately reflected
through the use of two lines. DOE
proposed to use the same relationship
for single package units as well. Niche
product relationships were not
developed because these products were
not fully analyzed in the preliminary
analysis.
Based on updates to unit listings in
the AHRI directory 35 as of June 2010,
DOE has reexamined and updated the
SEER–HSPF relationship for the direct
final rule analysis. When DOE plotted
the median HSPF values for the various
SEER increments using 2010 version of
the AHRI directory as opposed to a 2008
version which was used in the
preliminary analysis, the more recent
data exhibited a more gradual increase
in the HSPF trend at SEER values over
16 SEER. As a result, DOE trended the
data set of median values using a single
linear relationship. DOE believes that
this approach, which follows the
median more closely than the
relationship developed for the
preliminary analysis, is more
representative of the SEER–HSPF
relationship illustrated by heat pumps
currently available in the market.
Additionally, while examining the
35 Available at: https://www.ahridirectory.org/
ceedirectory/pages/hp/defaultSearch.aspx.
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relationship for different product classes
and capacity sizes, DOE determined that
the differences in HSPF values across
product classes were substantial enough
to warrant separate SEER–HSPF
relationships for each product class and
each cooling capacity analyzed. See
chapter 5 of the TSD accompanying
today’s notice for the specific HSPF
values considered at given SEER levels
based on the SEER–HSPF relationship
developed for this direct final rule.
standby mode and off mode energy
consumption using separate metrics,
because it is not technologically feasible
to integrate standby mode and off mode
into the existing metrics for these
products; standby mode and off mode
power consumption is orders of
magnitude less than active mode power
consumption, so in most cases, any
effects would likely be lost because
AFUE is reported to the nearest whole
number for these products.
7. Standby Mode and Off Mode Analysis
As mentioned in section III.C, DOE is
required by EPCA, as amended, to
address standby mode and off mode
energy consumption when developing
amended energy conservation standards
for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg))
DOE adopted a design-option approach
for its standby mode and off mode
engineering analysis for both furnaces
and central air conditioners/heat
pumps, which allowed DOE to calculate
the incremental costs of adding specific
design options to a baseline model. DOE
decided on this approach because
sufficient data do not exist to execute an
efficiency-level analysis, and DOE is not
aware of any manufacturers that
currently rate or publish data on the
standby mode energy consumption of
their products. Unlike standby mode
and off mode fossil-fuel consumption
for furnaces which is accounted for by
AFUE for gas and oil-fired furnaces,
standby mode and off mode electricity
consumption for furnaces (including for
electric furnaces) is not currently
regulated. Similarly, although SEER and
HSPF account for the standby mode
electricity consumption of central air
conditioners and furnaces, off mode
electricity consumption is currently
unregulated. Because of this, DOE
believes manufacturers generally do not
invest in research and development
(R&D) to design products with reduced
standby mode and off mode electrical
energy consumption. Therefore, DOE
determined that there is no basis for
comparison of efficiency levels among
products in terms of standby mode and
off mode energy consumption. The
design-option approach, by contrast,
allowed DOE to examine potential
designs for reducing the standby mode
and off mode power consumption of
residential furnaces and the off mode
energy consumption of central air
conditioners and heat pumps. Standby
mode energy consumption for central
air conditioners and heat pumps is
already accounted for in the SEER and
HSPF metrics. As discussed in section
III.E of this direct final rule, DOE
analyzed new, separate standards for
a. Identification and Characterization of
Standby Mode and Off Mode
Components
Using the design-option approach,
DOE identified components that
contribute to standby mode and off
mode energy consumption in the
teardown-generated BOMs used for
analyzing amended AFUE and SEER
standards. For furnaces, DOE performed
measurements of standby mode and off
mode electrical energy consumption of
each product before it was torn down in
accordance with the test procedures
specified in DOE’s July 2009 furnaces
test procedure NOPR (whose approach
was subsequently adopted in a final rule
published in the Federal Register on
October 20, 2010 (75 FR 64621)). 74 FR
36959 (July 27, 2009). In addition, DOE
performed testing on individual
components that DOE believes consume
most of the standby energy (e.g.,
transformer, ECM blower motor). DOE
aggregated these measurements to
characterize and estimate the electrical
energy use of each component operating
in standby mode or off mode, as well as
the standby mode and off mode
consumption of the entire product.
During manufacturer interviews,
manufacturers provided feedback on
these data, which DOE used to update
its estimates. DOE also estimated the
costs of individual components and
designs capable of being used to reduce
standby mode and off mode power
consumption based on volume-variable
price quotations and detailed
discussions with manufacturers and
component suppliers, and DOE received
feedback from manufacturers which was
used to refine the estimates.
For electric furnaces, DOE analyzed
the expected standby mode and off
mode power consumption of an electric
furnace in comparison to the standby
mode and off mode power consumption
of a non-weatherized gas furnace. For
non-weatherized gas furnaces, DOE
found that for the baseline standby
mode and off mode design, the
components that primarily contribute to
standby mode and off mode power
consumption are the control
transformer, an ECM fan motor (which
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37461
was assumed present for the baseline
standby mode and off mode design), and
the control board power supply, which
were estimated to use a total of nine
watts on average. Additionally, furnaces
with more complex controls and
features (which are included in the
baseline for the standby mode and off
mode analysis since they are the
highest-power consuming designs), DOE
found that additional standby mode and
off mode power requirements could be
up to 2 watts, for a total of 11 watts of
standby mode and off mode power
consumption.
To estimate the likely standby mode
and off mode power consumption of
electric furnaces, DOE compared wiring
diagrams, control schematics, and
images of control boards of gas and
electric furnaces. DOE found that
electric furnaces commonly use a 40VA
transformer that is very similar to those
found in non-weatherized gas furnaces.
Hence, DOE expects the power
consumption associated with these
transformers is the same. A DOE review
of electric furnaces suggests that other
components are also the same as (or
very similar to) those used in nonweatherized gas furnaces, such as ECM
blower motors, which suggests similar
standby consumption for these
components also. Finally, DOE
examined the control boards, their
power supplies, and the electrical
systems of both electric and gas furnaces
to examine potential differences in
standby mode and off mode power
consumption. DOE found that control
boards for both electric and nonweatherized gas furnaces typically share
many common features, such as linear
and/or zener-style power supplies,
relays, and microchip controllers.
Additionally, both furnace types need a
wiring harness and some sensors for
safety and control. The two key
differences are that electric furnace
control boards tend to be simpler (no
flame ignition/supervision, staging, and
other combustion safety controls
needed) and that electric furnace control
boards use relays and/or sequencers that
have higher capacity ratings than the
relays typically found in gas furnaces.
Sequencers are used to turn the electric
furnace heating elements on
incrementally to limit inrush currents
and prevent nuisance trips of circuit
breakers. DOE estimates that the
additional standby power associated
with the use of larger relays and/or
sequencers of electric furnaces is
balanced by the lack of need for
controls/components for combustion
initiation and control on gas furnaces.
As a result, DOE believes the evidence
suggests that an electric furnace has a
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standby mode and off mode electrical
consumption that is similar that of nonweatherized gas furnaces in similar
models. Further, DOE believes the
design options that were identified for
reducing the standby mode and off
mode power consumption of gas
furnaces (i.e., a switching mode power
supply and a toroidal transformer) will
have the same impact on the standby
mode and off mode power consumption
of electric furnaces.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, DOE measured off mode
electrical energy consumption of units
with and without crankcase heaters and
with various crankcase heater control
strategies in accordance with the test
procedures specified in the DOE test
procedure NOPR for central air
conditioners and heat pumps. 75 FR
31224, 31260 (June 2, 2010). As was
done for furnaces, DOE aggregated these
measurements, in conjunction with
nominal power ratings, to characterize
the electrical energy use of each
component operating in off mode.
During manufacturer interviews,
manufacturers provided feedback on
these data, which DOE used to update
its estimates. DOE also estimated the
costs of individual components based
on the same approach as furnaces and
received feedback from manufacturers
which was used to further refine these
cost estimates.
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b. Baseline Model
As noted above, the design-option
approach that DOE is using for the
standby mode and off mode energy
conservation standards engineering
analysis calculates the incremental costs
for products with standby mode or off
mode energy consumption levels above
a baseline model in each standby mode
and off mode product class covered in
this rulemaking. Because standby mode
and off mode electrical energy
consumption of residential furnaces and
central air conditioners and heat pumps
is currently unregulated, DOE began by
defining and identifying baseline
components from the representative
furnace teardowns that consumed the
most electricity during standby mode
and off mode operation. Baseline
components were then ‘‘assembled’’ to
model the electrical system of a furnace
or central air conditioner or heat pump
with the maximum system standby
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mode or off mode electrical energy
consumption from DOE’s representative
test data. The baseline model defines
the energy consumption and cost of the
most energy-consumptive product on
the market today (i.e., units with the
highest standby mode and off mode
electricity consumption) operating in
standby mode or off mode. See chapter
5 of the direct final rule TSD for
baseline model specifications.
ACEEE stated that it expects the
average furnace to have a standby power
consumption of 8 watts or about 50
kilowatt-hours per year based on a 2003
study by the Wisconsin Energy Center.36
(FUR: ACEEE, No. 1.3.009 at p. 11) As
noted above, DOE tested furnaces in
standby mode using the procedure
proposed in the July 2009 furnaces test
procedure NOPR and later adopted in
the October 2010 test procedure final
rule. None of the furnaces tested were
equipped with a ‘‘seasonal off switch,’’
and as a result, DOE did not have any
reason to expect a difference in standby
mode and off mode power consumption,
as the terms are defined in the test
procedure.37 As specified in the October
2010 test procedure final rule, DOE
assumed that standby mode and off
mode power consumption were equal,
as the test procedure directs for units
that do not have an expected difference
between standby mode and off mode
power consumption. 10 CFR Part 430,
subpart B, appendix N, section 8.6.2.
DOE’s testing resulted in a range of
values, both above and below 8 watts.
Additional discussion of the results of
DOE’s furnace testing is in chapter 5 of
the direct final rule TSD.
c. Cost-Power Consumption Results
The results of the engineering analysis
are reported as cost-power consumption
36 Pigg, S., ‘‘Electricity Use by New Furnaces: A
Wisconsin Field Study,’’ Madison, WI: Energy
Center of Wisconsin. (2003) (Available at: https://
www.doa.state.wi.us/docs_view2.asp?docid=1812).
37 The test procedure for furnaces and boilers
defines ‘‘standby mode’’ as ‘‘the condition during
the heating season in which the furnace or boiler
is connected to the power source, and neither the
burner, electric resistance elements, nor any
electrical auxiliaries such as blowers or pumps, are
activated,’’ and ‘‘off mode’’ as ‘‘the condition during
the non-heating season in which the furnace or
boiler is connected to the power source, and neither
the burner, electric resistance elements, nor any
electrical auxiliaries such as blowers or pumps, are
activated.’’ 75 FR 64621, (Oct. 20, 2010); 10 CFR
part 430, subpart B, appendix N, section 2.0.
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data (or ‘‘curves’’) in the form of power
(in watts) versus MPC (in dollars). For
furnaces, DOE developed two different
data sets for standby mode and off
mode: one to use for the nonweatherized gas, mobile home gas
(DOE’s testing showed that the standby
mode and off mode power consuming
components are the same in mobile
home gas furnaces as non-weatherized
gas furnaces), and electric furnace
product classes, and one to use for nonweatherized and mobile home oil-fired
furnace product classes. For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE
developed six off mode data sets: four
for air conditioners and two for heat
pumps. The data sets were produced
based on units with ECM fan motors,
because they will have a slightly higher
off mode power consumption due to the
fact that ECM fan motors have some
controls integrated into them.
The methodology for developing the
cost-power consumption curves started
with determining the energy use of
baseline products and their full cost of
production. For furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps, the
baseline products contained the highest
energy-consuming components, which
included an ECM blower motor (rather
than a PSC) when applicable. Above the
baseline, DOE implemented design
options based on cost-effectiveness.
Design options were implemented until
all available technologies were
employed (i.e., at a max-tech level). For
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, the design options are
not all mutually exclusive, and,
therefore, systems could incorporate
multiple design options simultaneously.
After considering several potential
designs to improve standby mode
efficiency for furnaces, DOE ultimately
examined two designs in addition to the
baseline that passed the screening
analysis (see chapter 4 of the direct final
rule TSD for details). DOE first
considered the use of a switch mode
power supply instead of a linear power
supply. DOE also considered the use of
a toroidal transformer in addition to a
switch mode power supply to further
reduce standby mode and off mode
energy consumption of a furnace. The
power consumption levels analyzed for
furnaces are shown in Table IV.6 below.
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TABLE IV.6—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER CONSUMPTION LEVELS FOR FURNACES
Non-weatherized gas,
electric, and mobile
home gas furnace
standby power consumption
(W)
Baseline ...................................................................................................................................
Efficiency Level 1 .....................................................................................................................
Efficiency Level 2 .....................................................................................................................
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Although DOE’s test results for
furnaces showed that the standby mode
and off mode consumption could be
reduced below efficiency level 2 by
eliminating certain features (e.g.,
replacing an ECM blower motor with a
PSC motor), DOE did not consider these
as potential design options, because the
elimination of such features and
components would result in a reduction
of consumer utility. In its analysis, DOE
only considered designs that could be
implemented with no noticeable
impacts on the performance and utility
of the unit.
For central air conditioners, DOE
examined three designs (i.e.,
thermostatically-controlled fixedresistance crankcase heaters,
thermostatically-controlled variableresistance crankcase heaters with
compressor covers, and
thermostatically-controlled variableresistance crankcase heaters with
compressor covers and a toroidal
transformer) in addition to the baseline
for split-system blower coil and
packaged air conditioners equipped
with crankcase heaters. DOE only
examined two designs (i.e.,
thermostatically-controlled fixedresistance crankcase heaters and
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thermostatically-controlled variableresistance crankcase heaters with
compressor covers) in addition to the
baseline for coil-only air conditioners,
because the transformer is contained in
the furnace or air handler and is not a
component of a coil-only system. DOE
believes that the crankcase heater is the
only source of off mode power
consumption for the coil-only systems,
and consequently, a coil-only splitsystem air conditioner will have no off
mode power consumption without a
crankcase heater unless it has an ECM
motor in the condensing unit.
For heat pumps, DOE found during
testing that heat pumps achieved a
lower power consumption during the off
mode period through the use of
crankcase heaters with a control strategy
based on outdoor ambient temperature,
as opposed to compressor shell
temperature. However, using this
control strategy prevents a heat pump
from achieving any additional energy
savings with a compressor cover,
because while a cover helps the
compressor shell retain heat, it has no
effect on the outdoor ambient
temperature sensor. Additionally, DOE
found that the fixed-resistance and
variable-resistance crankcase heaters
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11
10
9
Non-weatherized oil-fired
and mobile home oilfired furnace standby
power consumption
(W)
12
11
10
had similar test results in terms of
energy consumption and believes that
manufacturers will choose the fixedresistance heaters because they are more
cost-effective. Therefore, DOE did not
include compressor covers as a design
option for heat pumps because there is
no benefit from them without the
variable-resistance crankcase heaters
and only considered thermostaticallycontrolled crankcase heaters and
toroidal transformers.
DOE also found during testing that the
crankcase heater accounts for the vast
majority of off mode power
consumption for air conditioners and
heat pumps. However, not every unit
has a crankcase heater and, to accurately
reflect this in the analyses, DOE
determined separate efficiency levels
within each product class for units with
and without a crankcase heater. Because
two of the design options are only
relevant with crankcase heaters, the
only possible improvement to units
without crankcase heaters is the toroidal
transformer. Table IV.7 through Table
IV.9 contain the off mode efficiency
levels for central air conditioners and
heat pumps.
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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BILLING CODE 6450–01–C
For furnaces, the standby mode and
off mode electrical energy consumption
(in watts) of each design option was
estimated based on test measurements
performed on furnace electrical
components, industry knowledge, and
feedback from manufacturers during
manufacturer interviews. For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, the off
mode energy consumption of each
system design was calculated based on
test measurements performed according
to the off mode test procedure for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
that was proposed in the June 2010 test
procedure NOPR (75 FR 31224 (June 2,
2010)), and information gathered during
manufacturer interviews. See chapter 5
in the direct final rule TSD for
additional detail on the engineering
analyses and for complete cost-power
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consumption results for standby mode
and off mode operation.
D. Markup Analysis
The markup analysis develops
appropriate markups in the product
distribution chain to convert the
estimates of manufacturer selling price
derived in the engineering analysis to
consumer prices. At each step in the
distribution channel, companies mark
up the price of the product to cover
business costs and profit margin. After
establishing appropriate distribution
channels, DOE relied on economic data
from the U.S. Census Bureau and
industry sources to estimate how prices
are marked up as the products pass from
the manufacturer to the consumer.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, DOE
determined two typical distribution
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channels for central air conditioners and
heat pumps—one for replacement
products, and one for products installed
in new homes. DOE then estimated the
markups associated with the main
parties in the distribution channels. For
replacement products, these are
distributors and mechanical contractors.
For products installed in new homes,
these are distributors, mechanical
contractors, and general contractors
(builders).
DOE based the distributor and
mechanical contractor markups on
company income statement data; 38 DOE
based the general contractor markups on
38 Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration
Distribution International (HARDI) 2010 Profit
Report; Air Conditioning Contractors of America
(ACCA) Financial Analysis (2005).
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U.S. Census Bureau data 39 for the
residential building construction
industry. For distributors and
contractors, DOE developed separate
markups for baseline products (baseline
markups) and for the incremental cost of
more-efficient products (incremental
markups). Thus, for these actors, the
estimated total markup for moreefficient products is a blend of a
baseline markup on the cost of a
baseline product and an incremental
markup on the incremental cost. No
comments were received on the
distribution markups contained in the
preliminary TSD for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, and DOE
retained the approach used in the
preliminary analysis for today’s direct
final rule.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to determine typical markups
in the furnace distribution chain using
publicly-available corporate and
industry data, particularly Economic
Census data from the U.S. Census
Bureau 40 and input from industry trade
associations such as HARDI. It
described a similar approach for
furnaces to estimate baseline and
incremental markups as was used in the
preliminary analysis for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
HARDI stated that distributors do not
categorize costs into labor-scaling and
non-labor-scaling costs, and it
recommended that DOE should not use
this approach when projecting
distributor impacts. HARDI
recommended that DOE should use the
markups approach taken in chapter 17
of the TSD for central air conditioners
and heat pumps. (FUR: HARDI, No.
1.3.016 at p. 9)
In response, DOE notes that the
analysis described in chapter 17 of the
TSD for central air conditioners and
heat pumps only used baseline markups
because its purpose was to estimate the
impacts of regional standards and not to
estimate the incremental costs of higherefficiency products for the LCC and PBP
analysis. To derive incremental
markups for the LCC and PBP analysis,
DOE distinguishes between costs that
change when the distributor’s cost for
the appliances it sells changes due to
standards and those that do not change.
DOE agrees that the categorization of
costs as non-labor-scaling and laborscaling mentioned in the furnaces RAP
39 2007 Economics Census; available at: https://
factfinder.census.gov/servlet/EconSectorServlet?
caller=dataset&sv_name=*&_SectorId=23&ds_
name=EC0700A1&_lang=en&_ts=309198552580.
40 U.S. Census Bureau, Plumbing, Heating, and
Air-Conditioning Contractors: 2002 (Report EC02–
231–238220).
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may not be appropriate terminology.
Accordingly, for the direct final rule,
DOE refers to these two categories as
variant and invariant costs.
Chapter 6 of the direct final rule TSD
provides additional details on the
markup analysis.
E. Energy Use Analysis
DOE’s analysis of the energy use of
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps estimated the energy
use of these products in the field (i.e.,
as they are actually used by consumers).
The energy use analysis provided the
basis for other follow-on analyses that
DOE performed, particularly
assessments of the energy savings and
the savings in consumer operating costs
that could result from DOE’s adoption of
potential amended standard levels. In
contrast to the DOE test procedure,
which provides standardized results
that can serve as the basis for comparing
the performance of different appliances
used under the same conditions, the
energy use analysis seeks to capture the
range of operating conditions for
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps in U.S. homes and
buildings.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, to
determine the field energy use of
products that would meet possible
amended standard levels, DOE used
data from the EIA’s 2005 Residential
Energy Consumption Survey (RECS),
which was the most recent such survey
available at the time of DOE’s analysis.41
RECS is a national sample survey of
housing units that collects statistical
information on the consumption of and
expenditures for energy in housing units
along with data on energy-related
characteristics of the housing units and
occupants. The sample is selected to be
representative of the population of
occupied housing units in the U.S.
RECS provides sufficient information to
establish the type (product class) of
furnace, central air conditioner, or heat
pump used in each housing unit. As a
result, DOE was able to develop discrete
samples for each of the considered
product classes. DOE uses these samples
not only to establish each product’s
annual energy use, but also as the basis
for conducting the LCC and PBP
analysis. DOE described a similar
approach for furnaces in the RAP.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Lennox stated that DOE should use
more recent data for the energy
consumption of furnaces than those in
the 2005 RECS. Lennox asserted that
41 For information on RECS, see https://
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/recs/.
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using the 2005 RECS will overstate the
savings associated with higher
efficiency levels, because the market
share of high-efficiency furnaces has
increased since the time of the survey.
(FUR: Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p. 4)
Ingersoll Rand made a similar point.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at pp.
7–8) In response, DOE notes that the
increase in the market share of highefficiency furnaces since 2005 does not
result in overstated savings because, as
described below, DOE uses information
on the furnace in the RECS housing
units only to estimate the heating load
of each sample building (i.e., the
amount of heat needed to maintain
comfort). Since the heating load is a
characteristic of the dwelling and not
the heating equipment, DOE’s estimate
of annual energy use of baseline and
higher-efficiency furnaces (and the
difference, which is the energy savings)
is not affected if some households have
acquired new, more-efficient furnaces
since the time of the 2005 RECS.
Details on how DOE used RECS to
determine the annual energy use of
residential furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps are
provided below. A more detailed
description of DOE’s energy use analysis
is contained in chapter 7 of the direct
final rule TSD.
1. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, DOE
determined the annual energy use of
central air conditioners and heat pumps
at various efficiency levels using a
nationally representative set of housing
units that were selected from EIA’s 2005
RECS. DOE began with the reported
annual electric energy consumption for
space cooling and space heating for each
household in the sample. DOE then
adjusted the RECS household energy
use data, which reflect climate
conditions in 2005, to reflect normal
(30-year average) climate conditions.
DOE used the reported cooling
equipment vintage (i.e., the year in
which it was manufactured) to establish
the cooling efficiency (SEER) and
corresponding heating efficiency (HSPF)
of the household’s air conditioner or
heat pump. DOE estimated the energy
consumption for each sample household
at the baseline and higher efficiency
levels using the 2005 RECS-reported
cooling energy use multiplied by the
ratio of the SEER of each efficiency level
to the SEER of the household’s
equipment. Similarly, DOE calculated
the heating energy use for each
household in the sample using the 2005
RECS-reported heating energy use
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multiplied by the ratio of the HSPF of
each efficiency level to the HSPF of the
household’s equipment.
DOE also estimated the energy
consumption for central air conditioners
and heat pumps shipped to commercial
buildings, which DOE estimated at 7
percent of the market, using a model of
a small office building, DOE’s
EnergyPlus building energy simulation
software,42 and weather data for 237
locations around the U.S. Four
efficiency levels, starting with a baseline
SEER 13 level, were modeled and the
energy use at intermediate efficiency
levels was estimated by interpolation
between these four levels. Details of the
energy analysis methodology are
described in chapter 7 of the TSD.
Commenting on the preliminary TSD,
several commenters suggested that DOE
use computer simulation models for the
residential energy use estimates as well.
(CAC: CA IOUs, No. 69 at p. 3; SCS,
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 74)
Commenters stated that using
simulations is likely to be more
accurate. (CAC: ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 6;
NPCC, No. 74 at p. 3) Commenters noted
that that RECS 2005 does not
distinguish between heating and cooling
used in the same 24-hour period (CAC:
CA IOUs, No. 69 at p. 3), and that heat
pump usage estimated using RECS data
may be less accurate due to the small
sample size, particularly when
examining RECS statistics at the Census
division level. (CAC: SCS, No. 73 at p.
3; NPCC, No. 74 at p. 2; ACEEE, No. 72
at p. 6) A commenter also noted that
using RECS does not allow DOE to
control for external system effects such
as duct anomalies. (CAC: ACEEE, No. 72
at p. 6) More specifically with respect to
heat pumps, NPCC commented that the
approach used in the preliminary
analysis assumed that improvements in
efficiency result in comparable
percentage savings across differing
regions. NPCC noted that because HSPF
is climate dependent, a simulation or
bin temperature approach should be
used to get at the right answer. (CAC:
NPCC, No. 74 at p. 2; NPCC, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 44) NPCC also
stated that presuming DOE moves to a
simulation of the heat pump for the
residential analysis, it should use a heat
pump performance curve that reflects
inverter-driven compressors because
they perform quite differently at lower
temperatures relative to the standard
rating points that are now available.
(CAC: NPCC, Public Meeting Transcript.
at p. 70) Rheem commented that the
proportional changes in SEER will
reflect proportional changes in cooling
energy use across climates, assuming
similar characteristics for the
underlying equipment design, but noted
that SEER alone may not portray an
accurate difference in relative energy
consumption for disparate climates if
the underlying systems have different
characteristics such as two-stage
compressors or variable-speed fans.
(CAC: Rheem, No 76 at p. 6)
In response to these comments, DOE
is aware that RECS observations for heat
pumps are limited when analyzing
geographic subsets at the Census
division levels identified by
commenters, but points out that it relies
on larger regions with more
observations for its regional or national
analysis of heat pumps. In response to
the comment that DOE does not
distinguish between heating and cooling
in a 24-hour period, DOE believes that
this comment may be relevant to the
energy analysis for heat pumps, but that
its importance is overshadowed by the
much larger concern of achieving
household energy consumption
estimates that are reflective of the
variability in residential homes of
different vintages and building
characteristics, which is difficult to
capture in modeling. With regard to
controlling for duct anomalies, DOE
points out that a simulation may allow
DOE to presume some duct performance
or, through a sensitivity study,
understand how the assumptions for a
duct system can impact the energy
results, but in fact would not necessarily
yield more accurate estimates of energy
consumption than an analysis that is
based on more empirical energy use
data.
In response to the concern regarding
the climate sensitivity of HSPF and the
overall heating performance of heat
pumps, DOE agrees that its approach to
estimating energy savings should take
into account how the heating HSPF
would vary as a function of climate.
DOE examined several strategies for
doing this and relied for the direct final
rule on an approach that estimates the
change in seasonal heating efficiency for
heat pumps based on equations
developed from building simulation
analysis across the U.S.43 DOE also
42 For more information on EnergyPlus refer to
DOE’s EnergyPlus documentation, available at:
https://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/
energyplus_documentation.cfm. EnergyPlus
software is freely available for public download at:
https://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/energyplus/
energyplus_about.cfm.
43 Fairey, P., D.S. Parker, B. Wilcox and M.
Lombardi, ‘‘Climate Impacts on Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor (HSPF) and Seasonal Energy
Efficiency Ratio (SEER) for Air Source Heat
Pumps,’’ ASHRAE Transactions, American Society
of Heating, Refrigerating and Air Conditioning
Engineers, Inc. (June 2004).
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examined other possible methods,
including alternative simulation
approaches, and discusses these in
chapter 7 of the direct final rule TSD.
For the direct final rule, however, DOE
did not rely on separate simulations for
residential buildings to estimate the
underlying energy use at different
efficiency levels, due to the concerns
mentioned above, and, thus, did not
include heating performance curves for
inverter-driven heat pump systems.
DOE acknowledges that certain inverterdriven heat pumps, primarily found in
mini-split systems, have increased
heating capacity at low temperature
(relative to the nominal 47 °F heating
capacity) compared with non-inverter
systems. DOE also acknowledges that
this difference has potential heating
energy benefits over the course of the
year that, while captured in the HSPF
rating, may differ depending on climate.
DOE also received a number of
comments on the commercial analysis,
which relied on the use of energy
simulations. ACEEE commented that in
the commercial energy analysis, it
appreciated that DOE used realistic
values for the total static pressure in the
building modeling, but it was not
confident that the motor efficiencies or
combined efficiencies are realistic for
residential equipment at these higher
static pressures. (CAC: ACEEE, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 69) In addition,
ACEEE stated that it believes that there
should be some empirical data to
underlie the assumption that constant
air circulation is the predominant mode
of operation in small commercial
buildings that utilize residential
equipment. NPCC echoed this point,
adding that it had not seen controls that
provided switching between this mode
and heating/cooling modes of operation.
(CAC: NPCC, No. 74 at p. 5) NPCC also
suggested that DOE use the most recent
weather data in its analysis and
provided an analysis of differences in
TMY2 and TMY3 weather data for the
northwest.44 (CAC: NPCC, No. 74 at p.
4)
DOE was not able to identify a
specific source of information regarding
the use of continuous air circulation for
residential (single-phase) heat pumps in
commercial buildings, but notes that a
California study of 215 small air
conditioners in commercial buildings
found intermittent (cycling) ventilation
operation during the occupied period in
44 The TMY2 data are based on examination of
weather data from 1961–1990 for 239 locations. See:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, User’s
manual for TMY2s (Typical meteorological years
derived from the 1961–1990 national solar radiation
database) (1995).
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38 percent of cases examined.45 DOE
also notes that a programmable
residential thermostat that is set in a
continuous-circulation fan mode will
still shift into a cooling or heating mode
on a call for cooling or heat. However,
in recognition that intermittent
ventilation is common in small
buildings, DOE modified its simulation
model to have 40 percent (two out of
five) of the HVAC zones operate in
intermittent-circulation mode during
the occupied period. DOE maintained
the fan power assumptions from the
preliminary TSD. DOE acknowledges
that higher fan static pressure may
result in motor efficiency deviating from
the values used, but it may also result
in the actual air flow differing in the
field, depending on both the type and
size of motor used and on installation
practices. DOE also notes that there may
be variation in cooling and heating
efficiency when air flow rates deviate
from nominal values. DOE has not
attempted to systematically explore
these variations in the commercial
modeling. DOE has at this point not
updated its commercial simulations to
use TMY3 weather data but will
consider doing so for the final rule. DOE
believes that the impact of this change
would be minimal with regard to the
overall analysis. In the data provided by
NPCC, the overall change for
comparable TMY2 and TMY3 locations
was on the order of a five percent
reduction in heating degree days and no
clear change in cooling degree days.
DOE received multiple comments on
the SEER–EER relationship that was
used in the commercial modeling.
Commenters expressed concern that the
relationship that was used in the
preliminary analysis did not reflect the
correct relationship between SEER and
EER. Several commenters stated that the
Wassmer-Brandemuehl 46 curve used in
the preliminary analysis suggested a
nearly linear relationship between SEER
and EER, but that their review of the
data in the AHRI directory suggested
that this is not accurate. (CAC: CA IOUs,
No. 69 at pp. 3–4; PG&E, Public Meeting
Transcript at pp.63, 72; Ingersoll Rand,
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 63; EEI,
No. 75at p. 5) ACEEE suggested that the
curve should include two lines,
reflecting the slopes of this relationship
45 Jacobs, P. Small HVAC Problems and Potential
Savings Reports. 2003. California Energy
Commission, Sacramento, California. Report No.
CEC–500–03–082–A–25. Available at: https://
www.energy.ca.gov/pier/project_reports/500-03082.html.
46 Wassmer, M. and M.J. Brandemuehl, ‘‘Effect of
Data Availability on Modeling of Residential Air
Conditioners and Heat Pumps for Energy
Calculations’’ (2006) ASHRAE Transactions 111(1),
pp. 214–225.
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for single-speed versus step-modulating
compressors. (CAC: ACEEE, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 57; ACEEE, No.
72 at p. 4) ASAP noted that the
relationship between SEER and EER
may become clearer when set by a
standard, and that the market migrates
to the lowest-cost compliance path,
although single-stage equipment will
provide a different EER at a 16 SEER
than will two-stage equipment. (CAC:
ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript at p.
64)
EEI and NPCC reported concerns that
the nearly linear relationship between
EER and SEER would result in the
analysis showing better apparent
economic benefit than what might
actually occur due to differences
between estimated versus actual
impacts on peak demand and calculated
marginal price. EEI suggested that DOE
should use AHRI’s published EER
values in the simulations. (CAC: EEI,
Public Meeting Transcript at pp. 61,
104; EEI, No. 75 at p. 5; NPCC, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 130) Southern
also agreed that a curve based on EER
values representative of the current
AHRI database should be used instead
of the relationship used in the
preliminary TSD, and further suggested
that the SEER 16 and max-tech
efficiency levels should be modeled as
dual-speed or variable-speed
equipment. (CAC: SCS, No. 73 at p. 4;
SCS, Public Meeting Transcript at p. 60)
PG&E commented that, based on their
review of the equipment market, there is
a decrease in EER at very high SEER.
They emphasized that the impact of this
relationship on peak performance is an
important issue for utilities and is a
reason why they are emphatic about not
using SEER as the only efficiency metric
in hot, dry regions. (CAC: PG&E, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 72)
In response to the above concerns,
DOE modified its commercial
simulations to use EER values that
reflect the median values taken from the
most recent AHRI database for the
selected SEER levels that were
simulated. In addition, 16 SEER and
higher efficiency levels were modeled as
two-stage equipment. Additional
changes to the commercial modeling
included the incorporation of new
equipment performance curves from a 3ton split system air conditioner that
DOE believes to be more representative
of residential central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
DOE also received several comments
suggesting that northern region heat
pumps should not be sized based on
cooling loads. (CAC: CA IOUs, No. 69 at
p. 4; NPCC, No. 74 at p. 4) At the public
meeting, ACEEE asked if sizing based on
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cooling loads for northern climates is a
recommended practice that one would
find in an ACCA manual. (CAC: ACEEE,
Public Meeting Transcript at p. 55)
Southern also questioned the sizing
based on cooling loads for northern
climates. (CAC: SCS, Public Meeting
Transcript at p. 50)
DOE understands that, in the
Northwest, utilities encourage sizing
heat pumps based on the maximum of
either the cooling load or the heating
load at an ambient temperature between
30 °F and 35 °F, and that such sizing is
one component of many Northwest heat
pump rebate programs. DOE reviewed
the current ACCA manual for sizing of
equipment (Manual S),47 which clearly
states that sizing of heat pumps should
be based on cooling loads. However,
Manual S allows installers some
additional flexibility by suggesting that
they can consider sizing heat pumps up
to 25 percent larger if the building
balance point (i.e., where sensible
heating loads equal compressor heating
capacity) is relatively high. The manual
specifically caveats this by pointing out
that the additional capacity may not
translate into significant reduction in
heating costs and may not justify the
cost of a larger unit.
In a 2005 study of installation
practices of heat pumps in the
Northwest provided by NPCC,48 the
residential heat pump installations that
were examined were undersized
compared to the heating load in most of
the locations examined except the sites
in eastern Washington, which had
higher cooling design temperatures and
would be expected to have relatively
comparable heating and cooling loads.
(CAC: NPCC, No. 74, attachment 2 at p.
65) Sixty percent of the contractors
consulted in the study reported that
cooling sizing was the principle factor
in equipment selection. The study also
noted that, given the observed
equipment sizes in the study, it would
appear that a 30-percent increase in
capacity would be required in order to
be able to meet the design heating load
at a 30 °F outside temperature,
particularly given the drop in capacity
of heat pumps at lower temperatures.
Given the additional cost for larger
equipment (estimated at $1,000 in the
study) and Northwest utility rates, the
study noted that consumers may be
making an economic decision to not
invest in the larger equipment (and
47 Air Conditioning Contractors of America,
Manual S Residential Equipment Selection (1995)
(Available at: https://www.acca.org).
48 Baylon, D., et al., ‘‘Analysis of Heat Pump
Installation Practices and Performance, Final
Report’’ (2005) (Available at: https://www.neea.org/
research/reports/169.pdf).
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therefore to not meet the 30 °F heating
load) at the expense of greater energy
savings with the larger heat pump.
With respect to commercial buildings,
DOE expects that for most new small
commercial buildings in the northern
U.S., cooling design loads used for
sizing will typically be larger than
heating design loads at 30–35 °F due to
internal gain assumptions. However,
DOE notes that variation in both
ventilation and internal gain
assumptions used in sizing in the small
commercial building market will result
in variation in relative design cooling
and 30–35 °F heating loads among
buildings. DOE also notes that to the
extent that continuous circulation is
used in commercial buildings, fan
energy use and corresponding cooling
impact for larger equipment will have
an offsetting factor on heating energy
savings from larger heat pump sizing.
DOE has not passed judgment on the
economic or energy value of sizing for
heating loads in commercial buildings,
but, for the reasons cited above, DOE
did not modify the sizing methods for
the commercial modeling for the direct
final rule.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
2. Furnaces
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to use RECS data to estimate
the annual energy consumption of
residential furnaces used in existing
homes, and further described its
planned method for determining the
range of annual energy use of residential
furnaces at various efficiency levels.
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
followed the method described in the
furnaces RAP. In addition to using the
2005 RECS data to estimate the annual
energy consumption of residential
furnaces used in existing homes, DOE
estimated the furnace energy
efficiencies in existing homes, again
based primarily on data from the 2005
RECS. To estimate the annual energy
consumption of furnaces meeting higher
efficiency levels, DOE calculated the
house heating load based on the RECS
estimates of the annual energy
consumption of the furnace for each
household. For each household with a
furnace, RECS estimated the
equipment’s annual energy
consumption from the household’s
utility bills using conditional demand
analysis. DOE estimated the house
heating load by reference to the existing
furnace’s characteristics, specifically its
capacity and efficiency (AFUE), as well
as by the heat generated from the
electrical components. The AFUE was
determined using the furnace vintage
from 2005 RECS and data on the market
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share of condensing furnaces published
by AHRI.49
DOE then used the house heating load
to calculate the burner operating hours,
which is needed to calculate the fuel
consumption and electricity
consumption using section C of the
current version of the American Society
of Heating, Refrigerating and AirConditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) test
procedure SPC 103–2007, ‘‘Method of
Testing for Annual Fuel Utilization
Efficiency of Residential Central
Furnaces and Boilers.’’ To calculate
blower electricity consumption, DOE
accounted for field data from several
sources (as described in chapter 8 of the
direct final rule TSD) on static pressures
of duct systems, as well as airflow
curves for furnace blowers from
manufacturer literature.
To account for the effect of annual
weather variations, the 2005 RECS
household energy consumption values
were adjusted based on 30-year average
HDD data for the specific Census
division or the large State location.50 In
addition, DOE made adjustments to the
house heating load to reflect the
expectation that housing units in the
year in which compliance with the
amended standards is required will
have a somewhat different heating load
than the housing units in the 2005
RECS. The adjustment considers
projected improvements in building
thermal efficiency (due to improvement
in home insulation and other thermal
efficiency practices) and projected
increases in the square footages of
houses between 2005 and the
compliance date of the standards in this
rule.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand stated that in using
furnace capacity to estimate energy
consumption, DOE needs to account for
the fact that furnaces are often oversized to maintain comfort under
extreme conditions. (FUR: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 10) In response,
DOE’s approach does account for the
over-sizing of furnace capacity, since
the furnace capacity assignment is a
function of historical shipments by
furnace capacity, which reflects actual
practice, as well as heating square
footage and the outdoor design
temperature for heating (i.e., the
temperature that is exceeded by the 3049 Air Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration
Institute Industry Statistics is the reference source
for the shipped efficiency data by vintage year.
Available at: https://www.ahrinet.org/Content/
EquipmentStatistics_118.aspx.
50 Census divisions are groupings of States that
are subdivisions of the four census regions. The
large States considered separately are New York,
Florida, Texas, and California.
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year minimum average temperature 2.5
percent of the time).
In the furnaces RAP, DOE described
its plans to consider the potential for a
‘‘rebound effect’’ in its analysis of
furnace energy use. A rebound effect
could occur when a piece of equipment
that is more efficient is used more
intensively, so that the expected energy
savings from the efficiency
improvement may not fully materialize.
DOE stated that the rebound effect for
residential space heating appears to be
highly variable, ranging from 10 to 30
percent. A rebound effect of 10 percent
implies that 90 percent of the expected
energy savings from more efficient
equipment will actually occur.
DOE received comments about
applying a rebound effect associated
with higher-efficiency furnaces. ACEEE
referred to a 1993 study by Nadel that
suggests the rebound effect should be
about one percent.51 (FUR: ACEEE, No.
1.3.009 at p. 7) Based upon its
experience, Southern stated that the
rebound effect should not exceed 5
percent. (FUR: Southern, No. 1.2.006 at
p. 189) Lennox expressed concern with
DOE’s value for the rebound effect.
(FUR: Lennox, No. 1.3.018 at p. 4)
Ingersoll Rand stated that a significant
rebound effect is unlikely, because it
implies that consumers are currently
tolerating discomfort with existing
furnaces. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 10)
In response, DOE examined a
recently-published review of empirical
estimates of the rebound effect.52 The
authors evaluated 12 quasi-experimental
studies of household heating that
provide mean estimates of temperature
take-back (i.e., the increase in indoor
temperature in the period after
improvement in efficiency) in the range
from 0.14 °C to 1.6 °C. They also
reviewed nine econometric studies of
household heating, each of which
includes elasticity estimates that may be
used as a proxy for the direct rebound
effect. The authors conclude that ‘‘the
econometric evidence broadly supports
the conclusions of the quasiexperimental studies, suggesting a mean
value for the direct rebound effect for
household heating of around 20
percent.’’ 53 Based on the above review,
DOE incorporated a rebound effect of 20
percent for furnaces in the direct final
rule analysis. The above-cited review
51 S. Nadel, ‘‘The take-back effect: fact or fiction?’’
Proceedings of the 1993 Energy Program Evaluation
Conference, Chicago, IL, pp. 556–566.
52 S. Sorrell, J. Dimitropoulos, and M.
Sommerville, ‘‘Empirical estimates of the direct
rebound effect: a review,’’ Energy Policy 37(2009)
pp. 1356–71.
53 Id. at p. 1363.
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found far fewer studies that quantified
a direct rebound effect for household air
conditioning. Two studies of household
cooling identified in the review provide
estimates of the rebound effects that are
roughly comparable to those for
household heating (i.e., 1–26 percent).54
Therefore, to maintain consistency in its
analysis, DOE also used a rebound effect
of 20 percent for central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
DOE established annual off mode
energy consumption estimates for each
off mode technology option identified in
the engineering analysis for air
conditioners and for heat pumps. DOE
estimated annual off mode energy
consumption for air conditioners based
on the shoulder season off mode power
consumption and heating season off
mode power consumption multiplied by
the representative shoulder season
rating hours (739 hours) and heating
season rating hours (5,216 hours)
established in the test procedure. DOE
estimated annual energy consumption
for heat pumps based only on the
shoulder season off mode power
consumption multiplied by the
representative shoulder season rating
hours (739 hours) established in the test
procedure because heat pumps operate
in active mode during the heating
season. These seasonal hours are
calculated to be consistent with the
rating hours used in the SEER and HSPF
ratings for air conditioners and heat
pumps.
DOE is considering national standards
for off mode energy consumption, but
does not intend to set regional standards
for off mode energy consumption. DOE
recognizes that there will be some
variation in off mode hours depending
on location and individual household
usage, but believes that the defined off
mode hours in the test procedure will
represent a reasonable basis for
calculation of energy savings from off
mode energy conservation standards. In
the case of heat pumps, the off mode
period includes the shoulder period
between the heating and cooling season.
It is fairly constant across most of the
U.S. and, on average, is close to the test
procedure rating value for the DOE
climate zones. In the case of air
conditioners, the off mode period
54 Dubin, J.A., Miedema, A.K., Chandran, R.V.,
1986. Price effects of energy-efficient technologies—
a study of residential demand for heating and
cooling. Rand Journal of Economics 17(3), 310–25.
Hausman, J.A., 1979. Individual discount rates and
the purchase and utilization of energy-using
durables. Bell Journal of Economics 10(1), 33–54.
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includes all non-cooling-season hours,
so there is more variation across the
Nation. However, for the majority of the
U.S. population, the off mode period is
close to the test procedure rating value.
DOE does not include in the off mode
period the time during the cooling
season when a unit cycles off, because
energy use during this period is
captured in the seasonal SEER rating of
the equipment. Similarly, DOE does not
include in the off mode period the time
during the heating season when a heat
pump cycles off, because energy use
during this period is captured in the
seasonal HSPF rating of the equipment.
To avoid double counting the benefits of
design options which reduce energy
consumption when equipment cycles
off, DOE has defined the off mode time
period for the energy analysis to be
consistent with the operating periods
used for the SEER and HSPF ratings
The component that uses the most
power during off mode is the crankcase
heater, but it is not found in all
products. DOE established annual off
mode energy use estimates for air
conditioners and heat pumps using each
considered off mode technology option
for units with and without crankcase
heaters.
DOE was not able to identify a data
source establishing the fraction of
central air conditioner or heat pump
products in the U.S. market that would
be tested with crankcase heaters or
would be expected to have crankcase
heaters installed in the field. However,
a 2004 study of the Australian market
estimated that one in six central air
conditioners in that market utilized
crankcase heaters.55 Given that the need
to provide for compressor protection for
central air conditioners is driven by
similar refrigerant migration concerns
during cool weather, DOE estimated that
the use of crankcase heaters in Australia
was roughly similar to that in the U.S.
at that time. DOE estimated that changes
in compressor technology since 2004, in
particular market growth in the use of
scroll compressors, have likely reduced
the fraction of the central air
conditioner market with crankcase
heaters. Based on the above
considerations, for the direct final rule
analysis, DOE assumed that 10 percent
of central air conditioners within each
air conditioner product class would
utilize crankcase heaters. Discussion
during manufacturer interviews and
review of product literature suggest that
crankcase heaters are most commonly
55 Australian Greenhouse Office, ‘‘Air
Conditioners Standby Product Profile 2004/2006’’
(June 2004) (Available at: https://
www.energyrating.gov.au/library/pubs/sb200406aircons.pdf).
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used in heat pumps, which must be able
to cycle on in cold weather. DOE
assumed that two-thirds of heat pumps
would utilize crankcase heaters in each
heat pump product class.
Because the technology options
examined do not impact blower energy
consumption in off mode, DOE
determined that energy savings from
equipment utilizing ECM or PSC blower
motors would be identical for each off
mode technology option.
See chapter 7 in the direct final rule
TSD for additional detail on the energy
analysis and results for central air
conditioner and heat pump off mode
operation.
b. Furnaces
As described in section IV.C.7, DOE
analyzed two efficiency levels that
reflect the design options for furnaces
with ECM blower motors. The energy
use calculations account only for the
portion of the market with ECM blower
motors, because the power use of
furnaces with PCS motors is already
below the power limits being
considered for standby mode and off
mode power, and, thus, would be
unaffected by standards.
To project the market share of
furnaces with ECM blower motors, for
non-weatherized gas furnaces DOE
relied on market research data from
studies conducted in Vancouver,
Canada 56 and the State of Oregon.57
From these data, DOE estimated that
non-weatherized gas furnaces with
ECMs comprise approximately 29
percent of the market. For oil-fired,
mobile home gas, and electric furnaces,
DOE estimated that furnaces with ECMs
comprise 10 percent of the market.
DOE calculated furnace standby mode
and off mode electricity consumption by
multiplying the power consumption at
each efficiency level by the number of
standby mode and off mode hours. To
calculate the annual number of standby
mode and off mode hours for each
sample household, DOE subtracted the
estimated burner operating hours
(calculated as described in section
IV.E.2) from the total hours in a year
(8,760).
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand stated that standby mode
and off mode power should not be
included in DOE’s calculation of
furnace energy consumption during the
cooling season, when the furnace may
56 Hood, Innes, ‘‘High Efficiency Furnace Blower
Motors Market Baseline Assessment’’ (March 31,
2004) (Available at: https://www.cee1.org/eval/
db_pdf/416.pdf).
57 Habart, Jack, ‘‘Natural Gas Furnace Market
Assessment’’ (August 2005) (Available at: https://
www.cee1.org/eval/db_pdf/434.pdf).
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provide power for a central air
conditioner. (Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006
at p. 9) In response, DOE would clarify
that for homes that have both a furnace
and a split central air conditioner,
during the cooling season, the furnace
blower controls operate in standby
mode and off mode in conjunction with
the air conditioner, but such energy
consumption is not accounted for in the
energy use calculation for the air
conditioner. Therefore, DOE included
this energy use in the calculation of
furnace standby mode and off mode
energy use.
See chapter 7 in the direct final rule
TSD for additional detail on the energy
analysis and results for furnace standby
mode and off mode operation.
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analyses
DOE conducts LCC and PBP analyses
to evaluate the economic impacts on
individual consumers of potential
energy conservation standards for
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. The LCC is the total
consumer expense over the expected life
of a product, consisting of purchase and
installation costs plus operating costs
(expenses for energy use, maintenance,
and repair). To compute the operating
costs, DOE discounted future operating
costs to the time of purchase and
summed them over the expected
lifetime of the product. The PBP is the
estimated amount of time (in years) it
takes consumers to recover the
increased purchase cost (including
installation) of a more-efficient product
through lower operating costs. DOE
calculates the PBP by dividing the
change in purchase cost (normally
higher) due to a more-stringent standard
by the change in average annual
operating cost (normally lower) that
results from the standard.
For any given efficiency or energy use
level, DOE measures the PBP and the
change in LCC relative to an estimate of
the base-case appliance efficiency or
energy use levels. The base-case
estimate reflects the market in the
absence of new or amended mandatory
energy conservation standards,
including the market for products that
exceed the current energy conservation
standards.
For each considered efficiency level
in each product class, DOE calculated
the LCC and PBP for a nationallyrepresentative set of housing units. As
discussed in section IV.E, DOE
developed household samples from the
2005 RECS. For each sampled
household, DOE determined the energy
consumption for the furnace, central air
conditioner, or heat pump and the
appropriate energy prices in the area
where the household is located. By
developing a representative sample of
households, the analysis captured the
variability in energy consumption and
energy prices associated with the use of
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps.
Inputs to the calculation of total
installed cost include the cost of the
product—which includes manufacturer
costs, markups, and sales taxes—and
installation costs. Inputs to the
calculation of operating expenses
include annual energy consumption,
energy prices and price projections,
repair and maintenance costs, expected
product lifetimes, discount rates, and
the year in which compliance with new
or amended standards is required. DOE
created distributions of values for some
inputs to account for their uncertainty
and variability. Specifically, DOE used
probability distributions to characterize
product lifetime, discount rates, and
sales taxes.
The computer model DOE uses to
calculate the LCC and PBP, which
incorporates Crystal Ball (a
commercially-available software
program), relies on a Monte Carlo
simulation to incorporate uncertainty
and variability into the analysis. The
Monte Carlo simulations randomly
sample input values from the
probability distributions and furnace
and central air conditioner and heat
pump user samples. The model
calculated the LCC and PBP for
products at each efficiency level for
10,000 housing units per simulation
run. Details of the LCC spreadsheet
model, and of all the inputs to the LCC
and PBP analyses, are contained in TSD
chapter 8 and its appendices.
Table IV.10 and Table IV.11
summarize the inputs and methods DOE
used for the LCC and PBP calculations
for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, respectively. For
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
the table provides the data and
approach DOE used for the preliminary
TSD and the changes made for today’s
direct final rule. For furnaces, DOE has
not conducted a preliminary analysis, so
there are no changes to describe. The
subsections that follow discuss the
initial inputs and the changes DOE
made to them.
TABLE IV.10—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS FOR FURNACES*
Inputs
Direct final rule
Installed Product Costs
Product Cost ..........................................................
Installation Cost .....................................................
Derived by multiplying manufacturer cost by manufacturer and retailer markups and sales
tax, as appropriate.
Used experience curve fits to develop a price scaling index to forecast product costs.
Derived from RS Means data for 2010, the furnace installation model developed for the November 2007 Rule, and consultant reports.
Operating Costs
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Annual Energy Use ................................................
Energy Prices .........................................................
Energy Price Trends ..............................................
Repair and Maintenance Costs .............................
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Used household sample from 2005 RECS data.
Natural Gas: Based on EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly data for 2009.
Electricity: Based on EIA’s Form 861 data for 2008.
LPG and Oil: Based on data from EIA’s State Energy Data System (SEDS) 2008.
Variability: Separate energy prices determined for 13 geographic areas.
Forecasted using AEO2010 data at the Census division level.
Costs for annual maintenance derived using data from a proprietary consumer survey.
Repair costs based on Consumer Reports data on frequency of repair for gas furnaces in
2000–06, and estimate that an average repair has a parts cost equivalent to one-fourth of
the equipment cost.
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37471
TABLE IV.10—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS FOR FURNACES*—Continued
Inputs
Direct final rule
Present Value of Operating Cost Savings
Product Lifetime .....................................................
Estimated using survey results from RECS (1990, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005) and the U.S.
Census American Housing Survey (2005, 2007), along with historic data on appliance
shipments.
Variability: characterized using Weibull probability distributions.
Approach involves identifying all possible debt or asset classes that might be used to purchase the considered appliances, or might be affected indirectly. Primary data source was
the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances for 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998,
2001, 2004 and 2007.
2016.
Discount Rates .......................................................
Compliance Date of Standard ...............................
* References for the data sources mentioned in this table are provided in the sections following the table or in chapter 8 of the direct final rule
TSD.
TABLE IV.11—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS
AND HEAT PUMPS*
Inputs
Preliminary TSD
Changes for the direct final rule
Installed Product Costs
Product Cost ............................................
Derived by multiplying manufacturer cost by manufacturer and retailer markups and sales tax,
as appropriate.
Installation Cost .......................................
National average cost of installation derived from
RS Means data for 2008, adjusted for regional
labor price differences. Does not change with
efficiency level or equipment size.
Incremental retail markup changed as described
in section IV.D. Additional multi-speed fan kit
cost added for coil only air conditioners at 15
SEER and above. Used experience curve fits
to develop a price scaling index to forecast
product costs.
Derived from RS Means data for 2009. Does not
change with efficiency level or equipment size.
Operating Costs
Annual Energy Use .................................
Energy Prices ..........................................
Energy Price Trends ................................
Repair and Maintenance Costs ...............
Residential: Derived using household sample
from 2005 RECS data and reported energy
use for space heating and cooling. Commercial: Derived using whole building simulations.
Electricity: Marginal and average prices based on
residential and commercial electricity tariffs for
90 electric utilities in the Lawrence Berkeley
National Lab Tariff Analysis Project database.
Commercial prices incorporate demand and
time of use rates calculated based on hourly
electricity consumption.
Forecasted using the April 2009 update to Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009)..
Repair and maintenance costs calculated for 3ton (36,000 Btu/hr) units. Varies with efficiency
level of equipment.
No change in approach.
No change in approach.
Forecasts updated using AEO2010 forecasts at
the Census division level.
Repair costs calculated for 3-ton (36,000 Btu/hr)
units. Varies with efficiency level and size of
equipment (2-ton, 3-ton, or 5-ton). Preventative
maintenance cost assumed to not vary with efficiency or size of equipment.
Present Value of Operating Cost Savings
Product Lifetime .......................................
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Discount Rates ........................................
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Estimated using survey results from RECS
(1990, 1993, 1997, 2001, 2005) and the U.S.
Census American Housing Survey (2005,
2007), along with historic data on appliance
shipments. Variability: characterized using
Weibull probability distributions.
Approach involves identifying all possible debt or
asset classes that might be used to purchase
the considered appliances, or might be affected indirectly. Primary data source was the
Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer
Finances for 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2001,
2004 and 2007. For commercial installations
used weighted average cost of capital derived
from Value-Line listed firms at Damodaran Online Web site for 2008.
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No change.
No change to residential rates. Commercial discount rates updated to 2009, using Damodaran
Online for January 2010 and revised values for
risk-free rates and market risk factor.
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TABLE IV.11—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS
AND HEAT PUMPS*—Continued
Inputs
Preliminary TSD
Changes for the direct final rule
Compliance Date of New Standard .........
2016 .......................................................................
No change.
* References for the data sources mentioned in this table are provided in the sections following the table or in chapter 8 of the direct final rule
TSD.
As discussed in section IV.E, DOE is
taking into account the rebound effect
associated with more-efficient
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps. The takeback in energy consumption associated
with the rebound effect provides
consumers with increased value (e.g.,
enhanced comfort associated with a
cooler or warmer indoor environment).
The net impact on consumers is the sum
of the change in the cost of owning the
space-conditioning equipment (i.e., lifecycle cost) and the increased value of
the more comfortable indoor
environment. DOE believes that, if it
were able to monetize the increased
value to consumers of the rebound
effect, this value would be similar in
value to the foregone energy savings.
Thus, for this standards rulemaking,
DOE assumes that this value is
equivalent to the monetary value of the
energy savings that would have
occurred without the rebound effect.
Therefore, the economic impacts on
consumers with or without the rebound
effect, as measured in the LCC analysis,
are the same.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
1. Product Cost
To calculate the consumer product
cost at each considered efficiency level,
DOE multiplied the manufacturer costs
developed in the engineering analysis
by the supply-chain markups described
above (along with applicable average
sales taxes). For wholesalers and
contractors, DOE used different
markups for baseline products and
higher-efficiency products, because DOE
applies an incremental markup to the
cost increase associated with higherefficiency products.
During the direct final rule analysis,
DOE determined that split-system coilonly air conditioners rated at or above
15 SEER often have two stages of
cooling capacity. Realizing the full
efficiency of the product would require
a fan that can operate at multiple
speeds. DOE included a cost for a
‘‘multi-speed fan kit’’ that could be used
to adapt the existing furnace fan for twospeed cooling operation. DOE estimated
the kit cost to the consumer at $798 on
a national average basis. DOE applied
this cost to half of the split system, coil-
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only installations at 15 SEER, and all of
the installations at 15.5 SEER.
On February 22, 2011, DOE published
a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 76
FR 9696) stating that DOE may consider
improving regulatory analysis by
addressing equipment price trends.
Consistent with the NODA, DOE sought
to apply the experience curve approach
to this rulemaking. To do so, DOE used
historical shipments data together with
historical producer price indices (PPI)
for unitary air conditioners and warmair furnace equipment. DOE recognizes
the limitations of PPI as a proxy for
manufacturing costs because it
represents wholesale price.58 However,
the agency determined that even with
this limitation, the use of PPI may offer
some directionally-correct information
related to the experience curve
approach. DOE believes that the PPI
data may indicate long-term declining
real price trends for both products.
Thus, DOE used experience curve fits to
develop price scaling indices to forecast
product costs for this rulemaking.
DOE also considered the public
comments that were received in
response to the NODA and refined its
experience curve trend forecasting
estimates. Many commenters were
supportive of DOE moving from an
assumption-based equipment price
trend forecasting method to a datadriven methodology for forecasting
price trends. Other commenters were
skeptical that DOE could accurately
forecast price trends given the many
variables and factors that can
complicate both the estimation and the
interpretation of the numerical price
trend results and the relationship
between price and cost. DOE evaluated
these concerns and determined that
retaining the assumption-based
approach is consistent when there are
data gaps with the historical data for the
products covered in this rule. As a
result, DOE is presenting a range of
estimates reflecting both the
assumption-based approach and the
experience curve approach.
DOE also performed an initial
evaluation of the possibility of other
58 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics Handbook of Methods (Available at:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch14.htm).
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factors complicating the estimation of
the long-term price trend, and
developed a range of potential price
trend values that was consistent with
the available data and justified by the
amount of data that was available to
DOE at this time. DOE recognizes that
its price trend forecasting methods are
likely to be modified as more data and
information becomes available to
enhance the statistical certainty of the
trend estimate and the completeness of
the model. Additional data should
enable an improved evaluation of the
potential impacts of more of the factors
that can influence equipment price
trends over time.
To evaluate the impact of the
uncertainty of the price trend estimates,
DOE performed price trend sensitivity
calculations in the national impact
analysis to examine the dependence of
the analysis results on different
analytical assumptions. DOE also
included a constant real price trend
assumption. DOE found that for the
selected standard levels the benefits
outweighed the burdens under all
scenarios.
A more detailed discussion of DOE’s
development of price scaling indices is
provided in appendix 8–J of the direct
final rule TSD.
2. Installation Cost
Installation cost includes labor,
overhead, and any miscellaneous
materials and parts needed to install the
equipment.
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
In its central air conditioners and heat
pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
calculated average installation costs for
each class of equipment based on
installation costs found in RS Means.59
In the preliminary analysis, installation
costs were assumed constant across
efficiency levels, based on reported
practices of installers in a limited
telephone survey.
Commenting on the above approach,
Carrier suggested that DOE further
explore the variation in installation
costs by efficiency level, because when
59 RS Means, Residential Cost Data 2010, Reed
Construction Data, Kingston, MA.
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an installation project changes from
one-man to a two-man job because of
the size of the unit, this change will
impact contractor installation costs.
(CAC: Carrier, Public Meeting
Transcript at p. 140)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
conducted some additional interviews
with mechanical contractor/installers
and learned that while some contractors
use one-man crews for SEER 13
installations, generally two-man crews
are dispatched. If extra labor is required
beyond a two-man crew to move heavy
components, additional laborers are
brought to the site for the few minutes
they are needed, resulting in minimal
(less than $15) labor cost increase.
Further, installation contractors
reported that while installation costs
vary due to specific differences among
installation sites, they do not generally
vary by efficiency level. Larger
equipment is needed to move some of
the larger 5-ton units, but investments
in such equipment generally have been
made already. Installation labor costs
differ by less than 20 percent between
2-ton or 3-ton units and the larger 5-ton
units. The primary reason for the
difference in installation cost is not
related to the greater weight of 5-ton
systems, but rather to the greater effort
required to install larger duct systems
and longer refrigeration line sets, which
are not within the scope of the
rulemaking. Therefore, DOE concluded
that installation cost for central air
conditioners and heat pumps generally
does not increase with the efficiency or
the size of equipment, so it retained the
approach used in the preliminary
analysis. DOE did include additional
installation costs of $161 for the multispeed fan kit used for split system coilonly air conditioners with ratings at 15
SEER and above.
b. Furnaces
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated that
it will: (1) Estimate installation costs at
each considered efficiency level using a
variety of sources, including RS Means,
manufacturer literature, and information
from expert consultants; (2) account for
regional differences in labor costs; and
(3) estimate specific installation costs
for each sample household based on
building characteristics set forth in the
2005 RECS.
DOE received a number of comments
concerning installation costs when a
non-condensing furnace is replaced
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with a condensing furnace. AGA and
APGA stated that DOE should consider
important differences in classes of
consumers, particularly northern
consumers having to replace a noncondensing furnace with a condensing
furnace. (FUR: AGA, No.1.3.010 at p. 4;
APGA, No.1.3.004 at p. 4) APGA and
NPGA stated that DOE must consider
venting issues and other considerations
unique to the replacement market.
(FUR: APGA, No.1.3.004 at p. 4; NPGA,
No.1.3.005 at p. 3)
Several parties provided comments
regarding the need for venting system
modification when replacing a noncondensing furnace with a condensing
gas furnace. Several comments referred
to the venting considerations when
installation of a condensing furnace no
longer permits common venting with
the pre-existing gas water heater.
Ingersoll Rand stated that when a noncondensing furnace is replaced with a
condensing furnace, the rework of gas
appliance venting will add considerable
cost; according to the commenter, it will
have to include the cost of a dedicated
vent for the condensing furnace, plus
reworking the venting for a water heater,
which was most likely on a common
vent that will now be too large for the
water heater. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No.
1.3.006 at p. 12) AGA, APGA, and
NPGA made similar comments. (FUR:
AGA, No. 1.3.010 at pp. 3–4; AGA, No.
1.2.006 at p. 41; APGA, No. 1.3.004 at
p. 4; NPGA, No. 1.3.005 at p. 3) AGA
added that DOE must also consider
consumer and installer behaviors that
favor inadequate venting system
attention aimed at reducing installation
costs; AGA cautioned that such
practices may represent code violations,
as well as threats to consumer safety
from carbon monoxide poisoning, due
to improper venting or venting system
failure. (FUR: AGA, No. 1.3.010 at p. 3)
HARDI stated that there are significant
portions of existing gas furnace
installations that could not use a
condensing furnace without performing
major renovations to the building. (FUR:
HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at p. 3) ACCA stated
that in a recent ACCA member survey,
a majority of respondents said that 15–
30 percent of furnace retrofits in the
north would only accommodate noncondensing furnaces due to vent path
issues or concerns about freezing
condensate. (FUR: ACCA, No. 1.3.007 at
pp. 3–4)
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In contrast to some of the above
comments, AHRI and Rheem stated that
the venting issues resulting from the
‘‘orphaned’’ gas water heater can be
resolved through power venting and
new venting systems. (FUR: AHRI, No.
1.3.008 at p. 4; Rheem, No.1.3.022 at p.
4)
In response to these comments, for the
direct final rule analysis, DOE
conducted a detailed analysis of
installation costs when a noncondensing gas furnace is replaced with
a condensing gas furnace, with
particular attention to venting issues in
replacement applications. DOE gave
separate consideration to the cost of
installing a condensing gas furnace in
new homes. As part of its analysis, DOE
used information in the 2005 RECS to
estimate the location of the furnace in
each of the sample homes.
First, DOE estimated basic installation
costs that are applicable to both
replacement and new home
applications. These costs, which apply
to both condensing and non-condensing
gas furnaces, include putting in place
and setting up the furnace, gas piping,
ductwork, electrical hookup, permit and
removal/disposal fees, and where
applicable, additional labor hours for an
attic installation.
For replacement applications, DOE
then included a number of additional
costs (‘‘adders’’) for a fraction of the
sample households. For non-condensing
gas furnaces, these additional costs
included updating flue vent connectors,
vent resizing, and chimney relining. For
condensing gas furnaces, DOE included
new adders for flue venting (PVC),
combustion air venting (PVC),
concealing vent pipes, addressing an
orphaned water heater (by updating flue
vent connectors, vent resizing, or
chimney relining), and condensate
removal. Freeze protection is accounted
for in the cost of condensate removal.
Table IV.12 shows the fraction of
installations impacted and the average
cost for each of the adders. The estimate
of the fraction of installations impacted
was based on the furnace location
(primarily derived from information in
the 2005 RECS) and a number of other
sources that are described in chapter 8
of the direct final rule TSD. The costs
were based on 2010 RS Means. Chapter
8 of the direct final rule TSD describes
in detail how DOE estimated the cost for
each installation item.
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TABLE IV.12—ADDITIONAL INSTALLATION COSTS FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES IN REPLACEMENT APPLICATIONS
Replacement
installations
impacted
Installation cost adder
Average cost
(2009$)
Non-Condensing Furnaces
Updating Flue Vent Connectors ..............................................................................................................................
Vent Resizing ...........................................................................................................................................................
Chimney Relining .....................................................................................................................................................
7%
1%
16%
$211
591
591
100%
60%
5%
24%
100%
308
301
290
447
49
Condensing Furnaces
New Flue Venting (PVC) .........................................................................................................................................
Combustion Air Venting (PVC) ................................................................................................................................
Concealing Vent Pipes ............................................................................................................................................
Orphaned Water Heater ..........................................................................................................................................
Condensate Removal ..............................................................................................................................................
DOE also included installation adders
for fractions of new home applications.
For non-condensing gas furnaces, a new
flue vent (metal) is the only adder. For
condensing gas furnaces, the adders
include new flue venting (PVC),
combustion air venting (PVC),
accounting for a commonly-vented
water heater, and condensate items.
Table IV.13 shows the estimated
fraction of new home installations
impacted and the average cost for each
of the adders. For details, see chapter 8
of the direct final rule TSD.
TABLE IV.13—ADDITIONAL INSTALLATION COSTS FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES IN NEW HOME APPLICATIONS
New construction installations impacted
Installation cost adder
Average cost
(2009$)
Non-Condensing Furnaces
New Flue Vent (Metal) .............................................................................................................................................
100%
$818
100%
60%
50%
100%
249
240
402
7
Condensing Furnaces
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New Flue Venting (PVC) .........................................................................................................................................
Combustion Air Venting (PVC) ................................................................................................................................
Accounting for Commonly Vented WH ....................................................................................................................
Condensate Removal ..............................................................................................................................................
Several parties provided comments
regarding special considerations for
installing condensing gas furnaces in
manufactured homes. AGA, AGPA, and
NPGA stated that replacement
installation costs need to consider
either: (1) Freeze protection from
condensate in the furnace as well as in
the condensate handling system; or (2)
altering the closet insulation system to
put the furnace within the thermal
boundary of the manufactured home.
(FUR: AGA, No. 1.3.010 at p. 5; APGA,
No. 1.3.004 at p. 4; NPGA, No. 1.3.005
at p. 4) ACEEE stated that furnace
manufacturers signed the consensus
agreement and, therefore, foresaw no
problems with use of their condensing
products in manufactured housing.
ACEEE added that applicable codes
require that furnaces in manufactured
housing be installed in separate cabinets
with outdoor air supply, which makes
retrofitting with a condensing furnace
relatively easy. (FUR: ACEEE, No.
1.3.009 at p. 8)
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For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
included basic installation costs for
manufactured home gas furnaces similar
to those described above for nonweatherized gas furnaces. DOE also
included costs for venting and
condensate removal. Freeze protection
is accounted for in the cost of
condensate removal. In addition, DOE
considered the cost of dealing with
space constraints that could be
encountered when a condensing furnace
is installed.
For oil-fired furnaces, DOE included
basic installation costs similar to those
described above for non-weatherized gas
furnaces. DOE also included costs for
venting (including stainless steel vent
for some installations at 83–85 percent
AFUE) and condensate removal. In
addition, DOE assumed that condensing
furnaces require two additional labor
hours to tune up the combustion
system. For further details on
installation costs for both manufactured
home gas furnaces and oil-fired
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furnaces, see chapter 8 of the direct final
rule TSD.
3. Annual Energy Consumption
For each sample household, DOE
determined the energy consumption for
a furnace, central air conditioner, or
heat pump at different efficiency levels
using the approach described above in
section IV.E.
4. Energy Prices
In its central air conditioners and heat
pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
developed marginal electricity prices to
express the value of electricity cost
savings from more-efficient central air
conditioners and heat pumps. The
marginal electricity price for a given
consumer is the cost of the next
increment of electricity use on his or her
utility bill, and is the correct estimate of
the value of savings that a consumer
would see in the real world.
DOE developed residential marginal
electricity prices from tariffs collected
in 2008 from a representative sample of
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electric utilities throughout the United
States. DOE collected data for over 150
residential tariffs from a sample of about
90 electric utilities. As described earlier,
DOE developed samples of households
using central air conditioners and heat
pumps from the 2005 RECS. The
location of each household can be
identified within broad geographic
regions (e.g., Census Divisions). DOE
developed a weighted-average marginal
electricity price for each household
from all the possible utility tariffs that
could be assigned to that household.
DOE also developed commercial
marginal electricity prices from tariffs
for those commercial building
applications that use residential central
air conditioners and heat pumps. As
with the residential household sample,
DOE developed a weighted-average
marginal electricity price for each
commercial building from the utility
tariffs that could possibly be assigned to
that building. For further details, see
chapter 8 of the direct final rule TSD.
Commenting on the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary TSD, the Joint Comment
stated that the current impact analysis
does not account for time-dependent
valuation (TDV) of electricity,60 which
is expected to change significantly by
2015 due to smart grid technology.
(CAC: CA IOUs, No. 69 at p. 5) PG&E
stated that time-of-use (TOU) tariffs are
going to be present and important with
respect to the impact of the standards on
these products. (CAC: PG&E, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 113)
In response, DOE determined in its
preliminary analysis that many utilities
in the U.S. offer optional time-of-use
(TOU) tariffs that generally charge
consumers more for electricity during
peak periods, when it presumably costs
the utility more to provide electrical
service, in exchange for lower rates at
other times. To determine the effect of
TOU pricing structures on residential
consumers, DOE collected data on TOU
tariffs for those utilities in its sample
that offered optional TOU tariffs. DOE
found that approximately 50 percent of
customers in the sample were offered
TOU tariffs. Coupling hourly energy
savings derived from typical residential
household and central air conditioner/
heat pump load profiles with TOU
tariffs, DOE was able to derive TOUbased marginal electricity prices. These
data show that, currently, there is no
significant difference (on average less
60 TDV accounts for variations in electricity cost
related to time of day, season, and geography. The
concept behind TDV is that savings associated with
energy efficiency measures should be valued
differently at different times to better reflect the
actual costs to users, the utility system, and society.
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than 2 percent) between TOU and
default tariffs for the electricity costs
used in the LCC and PBP analysis.
The consensus agreement includes
EER standards in addition to SEER
requirements in the hot-dry region for
split-system and single-package central
air conditioners. Efficiency
requirements that would improve the
EER of a central air conditioner in the
hot-dry region are believed to improve
the performance of the equipment at
peak conditions when the equipment is
operating at its full capacity. Because
the TOU tariffs in hot-dry climates are
likely to yield higher electricity prices
during peak conditions, DOE placed
renewed focus on deriving TOU-based
marginal prices for the hot-dry region.
DOE also investigated the impact of
TDV of electricity in the hot-dry region,
given that the most populous State in
the region (California) has used TDV of
electricity to evaluate efficiency
measures in updates to its building code
standards. TOU-based and TDV-based
marginal prices are not significantly
different from the marginal prices
derived from default tariffs. Therefore,
DOE determined that they would not
have a significant effect on the
economic justification of more-stringent
efficiency standards. Appendix 8–D of
the direct final rule TSD describes the
analysis that compares marginal prices
developed from TOU tariffs and TDV of
electricity with marginal prices
developed from non-TOU tariffs.
For commercial-sector prices, the
existing tariff structures that DOE has
used in it analysis of electricity prices
already account for the effect that an
end use, such as central air
conditioning, has on marginal electricity
prices. Because utilities bill their
commercial customers with demand
charges (i.e., charges on power demand
expressed in $/kW) in addition to
energy charges, the resulting marginal
prices reflect the contribution that air
conditioning has on peak demand.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated that
it will derive average monthly energy
prices using recent EIA data for each of
13 geographic areas, consisting of the
nine U.S. Census divisions, with four
large States (New York, Florida, Texas,
and California) treated separately, to
establish appropriate energy prices for
each sample household. It added that in
contrast to the situation with residential
air conditioner and heat pumps, for
which the appliance’s load primarily
occurs during utility peak periods
during the summer, electricity
consumption of furnaces is not
concentrated during peak periods, so
DOE did not see a compelling reason to
use marginal electricity prices.
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Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand stated that DOE’s
intention to use average, not marginal,
energy prices for the furnace LCC
analysis is reasonable and avoids much
unnecessary complexity. Ingersoll Rand
further stated that, to improve accuracy,
DOE should use State-level energy
prices rather than prices determined
according to Census division. (FUR:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 11) In
response, DOE agrees that average
energy prices are appropriate for the
furnace LCC analysis for the reason
described above. DOE does not use
State-level energy prices in its analyses,
because the location of each sample
household in the 2005 RECS dataset can
be identified only within broad
geographic regions. Thus, it would not
be possible to make use of State-level
energy prices in the LCC and PBP
analysis. Accordingly, for the direct
final rule analysis of furnaces, DOE
derived average energy prices for the 13
geographic areas mentioned above. For
Census divisions containing one of
these large States, DOE calculated the
regional average excluding the data for
the large State.
DOE calculated average residential
electricity prices for each of the 13
geographic areas using data from EIA’s
Form EIA–861 Database (based on
‘‘Annual Electric Power Industry
Report’’).61 DOE calculated an average
annual regional residential price by: (1)
Estimating an average residential price
for each utility (by dividing the
residential revenues by residential
kilowatt-hour sales); and (2) weighting
each utility by the number of residential
consumers it served in that region. The
direct final rule analysis used the data
available for 2008.
DOE calculated average residential
natural gas prices for each of the 13
geographic areas using data from EIA’s
‘‘Natural Gas Monthly.’’ 62 DOE
calculated average annual regional
residential prices by: (1) Estimating an
average residential price for each State;
and (2) weighting each State by the
number of residential consumers. The
direct final rule analysis used the data
for 2009.
DOE estimated average residential
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and oil
prices for each of the 13 geographic
61 Available at: https://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/
electricity/page/eia861.html.
62 Available at: https://www.eia.gov/oil_gas/
natural_gas/data_publications/natural_
gas_monthly/ngm.html.
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areas based on data from EIA’s State
Energy Data System (SEDS) 2008.63
For each of the above energy forms,
DOE disaggregated the annual energy
prices into monthly prices using factors
that relate historical prices for each
month to the average annual prices.
5. Energy Price Projections
To estimate energy prices in future
years for the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, DOE
multiplied the average marginal
electricity prices in each of the 13
geographic areas by the forecast of
annual average residential or
commercial electricity price changes in
the Reference Case 64 derived from
AEO2009. In the furnaces RAP, DOE
stated its intention to use projections of
national average natural gas, LPG,
electricity, and fuel oil prices for
residential consumers to estimate future
energy prices, and to use the most
recent available edition of the AEO.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand stated that using
national-average price changes to
forecast future energy prices may distort
the regional results. (FUR: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 9) In response,
DOE agrees that using regional energy
price forecasts is appropriate for the
analysis in this rulemaking. For this
rule, for central air conditioners and
heat pumps as well as furnaces, DOE
developed electricity price forecasts for
the considered geographic areas using
the forecasts by Census division for
residential and commercial heating and
cooling end uses from AEO2010. To
estimate the electricity price trend after
2035 (the end year in AEO2010
projections) and through 2060, DOE
assumed that prices would rise at the
average annual rate of change from 2020
to 2035 forecasted in AEO2010. To
estimate the trends in natural gas, LPG,
and fuel oil prices after 2035 and
through 2060, DOE assumed that prices
would rise at the average annual rate of
change from 2020 to 2035 forecasted in
AEO2010. DOE intends to update its
energy price forecasts for the final rule
based on the latest available AEO.
6. Maintenance and Repair Costs
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Repair costs are associated with
repairing or replacing components that
have failed in the appliance, whereas
63 Table S2a, Residential Sector Energy Price
Estimates by Source (June 2010) (Available at:
https://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html).
64 The spreadsheet tool that DOE used to conduct
the LCC and PBP analyses allows users to select
price forecasts from either AEO’s High Economic
Growth or Low Economic Growth Cases. Users can
thereby estimate the sensitivity of the LCC and PBP
results to different energy price forecasts.
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maintenance costs are associated with
maintaining the proper operation of the
equipment.
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
In its central air conditioners and heat
pumps preliminary analysis, DOE used
RS Means and industry literature to
obtain estimates of average repair costs
and preventative maintenance costs.
Both costs were scaled proportionately
with equipment price for higherefficiency equipment. DOE did not
receive any significant comments on its
procedure or findings. However, after
further review, DOE determined that the
actual functions carried out as part of
annual preventative maintenance (such
as coil cleaning or checking of system
pressures) are tasks that are not affected
by the cost of the equipment and, thus,
would not be more expensive as
efficiency increased. Therefore, for the
direct final rule, maintenance costs were
held constant as efficiency increased.
b. Furnaces
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated that
it will: (1) Estimate maintenance and
repair costs at each considered
efficiency level using a variety of
sources, including RS Means,
manufacturer literature, and information
from expert consultants; and (2) account
for regional differences in labor costs.
DOE did not receive any significant
comments on this topic.
For the direct final rule, DOE
estimated costs for annual maintenance
using data from a proprietary consumer
survey 65 on the frequency with which
owners of different types of furnaces
perform maintenance. For condensing
oil furnaces, the high quantity of sulfur
in the fuel results in frequent cleaning
of the secondary heat exchanger, and
DOE accounted for this cost.
DOE estimated that about three
percent of furnaces are repaired
annually based on Consumer Reports
data on frequency of repair for gas
furnaces installed between 2000 and
2006.66 DOE assumed that an average
repair has a parts cost equivalent to onefourth of the equipment cost, marked up
by a factor of two, and requires 1.5
hours of labor.
7. Product Lifetime
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
65 Decision Analysts, ‘‘2008 American Home
Comfort Study’’ (2009).
66 Consumer Reports, ‘‘Brand Repair History: Gas
furnaces’’ (Jan. 2008) (Available at: https://
www.consumerreports.org/cro/appliances/heatingcooling-and-air/gas-furnaces/furnaces-repairhistory-205/overview/index.htm).
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conducted an analysis of actual product
lifetime in the field using a combination
of shipments data, responses in RECS
on the age of household central air
conditioner and heat pump products,
and total installed stock data in the U.S.
Census’s American Housing Survey
(AHS).67 DOE used RECS data from
surveys conducted in 1990, 1993, 1997,
2001, and 2005. DOE used AHS data
from surveys conducted every other
year from 1991 to 2007. By combining
the results of RECS and AHS with the
known history of appliance shipments,
DOE estimated the percentage of central
air conditioner and heat pump products
of a given age still in operation. This
analysis yielded distributions with a
mean life of 19 years for central air
conditioners and 16.3 years for heat
pumps.
Commenting on the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary TSD, Southern stated that
the impact of the
hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) R22
refrigerant phase-out on equipment
lifetimes needs to be considered. (CAC:
SCS, No. 73 at p. 4) By way of
background, effective January 1, 2010,
the Montreal Protocol requires the U.S.
to reduce its consumption of HCFCs by
75 percent below the U.S. baseline cap.
As of January 1, 2010, HVAC system
manufacturers may only produce or
import HCFC–22 to service existing
equipment. Virgin HCFC–22 may not be
used in new equipment. As a result,
HVAC system manufacturers may not
produce new air conditioners and heat
pumps containing HCFC–22. The
timeline for the phase-out of HCFC–22
in new equipment has been known
since the mid-1990s. Since that time,
the industry has sponsored considerable
research into the development of
refrigerant alternatives with zero ozone
depletion potential, and they eventually
settled on R–410a as a replacement.
Manufacturers have been producing
products that utilize R–410a for the past
decade in anticipation of the 2010
phase-out date. DOE concluded that
given the lead time accorded to the
industry, and the fact that these
products are widely distributed in the
market, products manufactured with R–
410a provide the same level of utility
and performance, including product
lifetime, as equipment utilizing HCFC–
22.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to use an approach based on
an analysis of furnace lifetimes in the
field using a combination of shipments
data, the stock of furnaces, RECS data
67 Available at: https://www.census.gov/hhes/
www/housing/ahs/ahs.html.
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on the age of the furnaces in the
surveyed homes, and AHS data on the
total installed furnace stock. The same
survey years were utilized to determine
furnace lifetimes as were used for
central air conditioners and heat pumps.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
Ingersoll Rand requested that DOE
review and refine its lifetime estimate
for gas furnaces, because the often-cited
18-year to 20-year lifetime may be
unrealistically long. Instead, Ingersoll
Rand stated that the mean population
life expectancy for furnaces is probably
in the range of 15–20 years. (FUR:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at pp. 8 &
10)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
derived probability distributions
ranging from minimum to maximum
lifetime for the products considered in
this rulemaking. For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, DOE used
the same approach as it did in the
preliminary analysis. For furnaces, it
used the approach described in the
RAP. The mean lifetimes estimated for
the direct final rule are 23.6 years for
non-weatherized gas furnaces, 18.7
years for mobile home gas furnaces, and
29.7 years for oil-fired furnaces.
Regarding the comment by Ingersoll
Rand, DOE believes that the method
DOE used is reasonable because it relies
on data from the field on furnace
lifetimes. DOE was not able to
substantiate the validity of the life
expectancy mentioned by Ingersoll
Rand, because the commenter did not
provide any corroborating data in its
comment.
Chapter 8 of the direct final rule TSD
provides further details on the
methodology and sources DOE used to
develop product lifetimes.
8. Discount Rates
In the calculation of LCC, DOE
applies discount rates to estimate the
present value of future operating costs.
In its central air conditioners and heat
pumps preliminary analysis, to establish
consumer (residential) discount rates for
the LCC analysis, DOE identified all
debt or asset classes that might be used
to purchase major appliances or that
might be affected indirectly. It estimated
the average percentage shares of the
various debt or asset classes for the
average U.S. household using data from
the Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of
Consumer Finances (SCF) for a number
of years.68 Using the SCF and other
sources, DOE then developed a
distribution of rates for each type of
68 Available at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/
pubs/oss/oss2/scfindex.html. The surveys used
range from 1989 to 2007.
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debt and asset to represent the rates that
may apply in the year in which
amended standards would take effect.
For the purchase of products for new
homes, which are included in the sales
price of the home, DOE uses finance
costs based on a distribution of
mortgage rates. DOE assigned each
sample household a specific discount
rate drawn from the distributions.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
developed commercial discount rates
based on the weighted average cost of
capital (WACC) calculated for
commercial businesses expected to
occupy small commercial buildings. For
the commercial cost of capital data, DOE
relied on financial data found in the
Damodaran Online Web site as of
January 2009 (since updated to January
2010). In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated
its intention to use the same approach
for furnaces as it used in the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary analysis.
DOE did not receive any significant
comments on consumer discount rates.
Therefore, for the direct final rule, DOE
used the same approach as it used in the
central air conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary analysis, with minor
modifications to the estimation of riskfree rates and risk premiums that are
needed to calculate WACC. See chapter
8 in the direct final rule TSD for further
details on the development of discount
rates for the LCC analysis.
9. Compliance Date of Amended
Standards
In the context of EPCA, the
compliance date is the future date when
parties subject to a new or amended
standard must meet its applicable
requirements. DOE calculates the LCC
and PBP for each of the considered
efficiency levels as if consumers would
purchase new products in the year
compliance with the standard is
required.
For the reasons discussed in section
III.C, DOE determined that for all TSLs
analyzed—except for the consensus
agreement TSL—DOE is bound to
calculate compliance dates in
accordance with EPCA. For those TSLs,
the analysis accounts for a five-year lead
time between the publication of the
final rule for furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps and the
date by which manufacturers must
comply with the amended standard.
A final rule for the products that are
the subject of this rulemaking is
scheduled to be completed by June 30,
2011. Thus, for most of the TSLs
analyzed, compliance with amended
standards for furnaces and central air
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37477
conditioners and heat pumps would be
required in 2016. Accordingly, for
purposes of the LCC and PBP analysis,
DOE used 2016 as the year compliance
with the amended standards is required.
10. Base-Case Efficiency Distribution
To accurately estimate the share of
consumers that would be affected by a
standard at a particular efficiency level,
DOE estimates the distribution of
product efficiencies that consumers
would purchase under the base case
(i.e., the case without new or amended
energy efficiency standards) in the year
compliance with the standard is
required. DOE refers to this distribution
of product efficiencies as a base-case
efficiency distribution. DOE develops
base-case efficiency distributions for
each of the considered product classes.
a. Energy Efficiency
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
assumed that the base-case efficiency
distributions in 2016 would be the same
as in 2008. Southern commented that it
is not reasonable to assume efficiencies
are going to stay frozen from 2008 to
2016, as there has been a huge increase
in utility incentive programs for higherefficiency units. Southern stated that
there will be some increase in the
shipment-weighted efficiency between
2008 and 2016. (CAC: SCS, Public
Meeting Transcript at p. 196) HARDI
commented that DOE must incorporate
the role that energy efficiency incentive
programs play in the sale and
installation of higher-efficiency units.
(CAC: HARDI, No. 70 at p. 1)
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated that
its development of base-case efficiency
distributions will use available data on
recent market trends in furnace
efficiency and will take into account the
potential impacts of the ENERGY STAR
program and other policies that may
affect the demand for more-efficient
furnaces. Commenting on the furnaces
RAP, several parties stated that DOE
should consider the extent to which
incentives and other market forces are
expanding the market for highefficiency furnaces even without new
standards. (FUR: AGA, No. 1.3.010 at p.
2 & pp. 5–6; APGA, No. 1.3.004 at p. 4;
and HARDI, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 168–70)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
considered incentives and other market
forces that have increased the sales of
high-efficiency furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps to
estimate base-case efficiency
distributions for the considered
products. DOE started with data
provided by AHRI on historical
shipments for each product class. For
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non-weatherized gas furnaces, the
historical shipments data were further
specified by region and type of furnace
(i.e., non-condensing or condensing).
DOE then used data on the distribution
of models in AHRI’s Directory of
Certified Product Performance: Furnaces
(October 2010) 69 to disaggregate
shipments among condensing efficiency
levels for 2009. For central air
conditioners and heat pumps, the
historical shipments data were
accompanied with annual shipmentweighted efficiency data by product
class. DOE then used data from the AirConditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration
(ACHR) News 70 to disaggregate
shipments among efficiency levels for
2008.
DOE forecasted the non-weatherized
gas furnace and central air conditioner
and heat pump efficiency distributions
to 2011 based on the average growth in
efficiency from 2006 to 2009. The
historical efficiency data from AHRI
indicate a rapid growth in average
equipment efficiency, based in large
part on the availability of Federal tax
credits for the purchase of highefficiency products. The Federal tax
credits expire on December 31, 2011.
After the expiration, DOE believes that
the demand for high-efficiency products
is likely to decline somewhat initially,
but it assumed that the average
efficiency will then increase at the
historic rate seen in the decade prior to
availability of the Federal tax credits.
For further information on DOE’s
estimation of the base-case efficiency
distributions for non-weatherized gas
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps, see chapter 8 of the
direct final rule TSD.
Table IV.14 shows the estimated basecase efficiency distributions in 2016 for
non-weatherized gas furnaces. Table
IV.15 shows the estimated base-case
efficiency distributions in 2016 for the
four primary central air conditioner and
heat pump product classes. DOE was
unable to develop unique efficiency
distributions by region, as data were not
provided by AHRI on a regional basis.
Therefore, DOE assumed that the
efficiency distributions are the same in
each region.
TABLE IV.14—BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES
Efficiency
North
South
AFUE
80%
90%
92%
95%
98%
National
Market share in percent
..............................................................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................................
29.1
13.7
33.6
23.0
0.6
75.6
4.7
11.6
7.9
0.2
48.1
10.0
24.6
16.9
0.4
TABLE IV.15—BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS AND HEAT PUMPS
Efficiency
Split CAC
SEER
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
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For mobile home gas furnaces and oilfired furnaces, DOE used data in the
AHRI furnace models directory and
manufacturer input to estimate current
https://www.ahridirectory.org/.
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Single-package CAC
Single-package HP
Market share in percent
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................
69 See:
Split HP
24.0
47.0
4.0
7.3
5.8
2.0
7.0
0.5
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
13.0
40.0
10.0
13.0
11.5
3.5
5.0
2.0
1.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
62.7
20.0
14.3
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.1
32.0
28.9
5.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
efficiency distributions. Because there is
little indication of a trend in efficiency
for these products, DOE assumed that
the efficiency distributions in 2016 will
be the same as in the current market (see
Table IV.16).
70 ACHR News, ‘‘Higher SEERs got popular’’ (Dec.
24, 2007) (Available at: https://www.achrnews.com/
Articles/Web_Exclusive/BNP_GUID_9–5–2006_A_
10000000000000222513).
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b. Standby Mode and Off Mode Power
DOE also estimated base-case
efficiency distributions for furnace
standby mode and off mode power. As
discussed in section IV.C.7.c, DOE
considered efficiency levels only for
furnaces with ECM motors. Baseline
products contain the highest energyconsuming components, which include
an ECM blower motor (rather than a
PSC). Although DOE’s test results for
furnaces showed that the standby mode
and off mode consumption could be
reduced by eliminating certain features
(e.g., replacing an ECM blower motor
with a PSC motor), DOE did not
consider these reductions because the
elimination of such features and
components would result in a reduction
of consumer utility. (The ECM motor
maintains constant airflow volume and
37479
is suited for two-speed equipment,
which allows the consumer to maintain
better comfort.) In its analysis, DOE only
considered efficiency levels that could
be implemented with no noticeable
impacts on the performance and utility
of the unit. As shown in Table IV.17
through Table IV.19, DOE estimated that
all of the affected market would be at
the baseline level in 2016.
TABLE IV.17—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR NON-WEATHERIZED
GAS FURNACES AND ELECTRIC FURNACES
Efficiency level
Motor type
Baseline .......................................................................................................................................
1 ...................................................................................................................................................
2 ...................................................................................................................................................
ECM
ECM
ECM
Standby/offmode
watts
11.0
9.8
9.0
Market share
in percent*
100
0
0
* Refers to share of furnaces with ECM motor.
TABLE IV.18—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR OIL-FIRED FURNACES
Efficiency level
Motor type
Baseline .......................................................................................................................................
1 ...................................................................................................................................................
2 ...................................................................................................................................................
ECM
ECM
ECM
Standby/offmode
watts
12.0
10.8
10.0
Market share
in percent*
100
0
0
* Refers to share of furnaces with ECM motor.
TABLE IV.19—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR MOBILE HOME GAS
FURNACES
Efficiency level
Motor type
ECM
ECM
ECM
11.0
9.8
9.0
Market share
in percent*
100
0
0
* Refers to share of furnaces with ECM motor.
DOE also estimated base-case
efficiency distributions for central air
conditioner and heat pump off mode
power. As discussed in section IV.C.7.c,
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DOE considered efficiency levels only
for air conditioning and heat pump
equipment with crankcase heaters. DOE
found that crankcase heaters account for
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the vast majority of off mode power
consumption for air conditioners and
heat pumps. However, not every unit
has a crankcase heater and, to accurately
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Baseline .......................................................................................................................................
1 ...................................................................................................................................................
2 ...................................................................................................................................................
Standby/offmode
watts
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reflect this in the analyses, DOE
determined separate efficiency levels
within each product class for units with
and without a crankcase heater.
Although DOE’s test results for central
air conditioners and heat pumps
showed that the standby mode and off
mode consumption could be reduced
eliminating certain features (such as the
crankcase heater), DOE did not consider
such measures because the elimination
of the features and components would
result in a reduction of consumer
utility.71 In its analysis, DOE only
considered designs that could be
implemented with no noticeable
impacts on the performance and utility
of the unit.
As shown in Table IV.20, for splitsystem air conditioners, DOE estimated
that 60 percent of the affected market
would be at the baseline level, 30
percent at efficiency level 1, and 10
percent at efficiency level 2 in 2016.
Because off mode power consumption is
a function of system type (i.e., blowercoil or coil-only), the market share is
further disaggregated by system type for
each efficiency level. As a result of this
further disaggregation, two different off
mode power consumption levels are
reported at each efficiency level.
TABLE IV.20—OFF MODE BASE-CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONERS
Market share of affected market in
percent*
Efficiency level
Off-Mode
watts
AC type
Baseline ....................................................
1 ................................................................
2 ................................................................
3 ................................................................
Blower-Coil ...............................................
Coil-Only ...................................................
Blower-Coil ...............................................
Coil-Only ...................................................
Blower-Coil ...............................................
Coil-Only ...................................................
Blower-Coil ...............................................
Coil-Only ...................................................
By efficiency
level and AC
type
By efficiency
level
48
40
36
28
30
22
29
NA
60
6
54
1
9
3
27
0
0
30
10
0
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
* Refers to share of air conditioners with crankcase heaters.
As shown in Table IV.21, for singlepackage air conditioners, DOE estimated
that 60 percent of the affected market
would be at the baseline level, 30
percent at efficiency level 1, and 10
percent at efficiency level 2 in 2016. For
split-system and single-package heat
pumps (Table IV.22), DOE estimated
that 50 percent of the affected market
would be at the baseline level and 50
percent at efficiency level 1 in 2016.
The off mode power consumption levels
associated with ECM-equipped systems
set the wattage limitations for each of
the efficiency levels considered. Of
further note, in the case of efficiency
level 3 for single-package air
conditioners and efficiency level 2 for
heat pumps, only the fraction of the
market equipped with ECMs is
impacted. Single-package air
conditioners with PSC motors that
comply with the off mode power
requirements in efficiency level 2
already meet the requirements in
efficiency level 3. For heat pumps, units
with PSC motors that comply with the
off mode power requirements in
efficiency level 1 already meet the
requirements in efficiency level 2.
71 Crankcase heaters are used in some
compressors and prevent refrigerant condensation
in the crankcase of a compressor. Without the
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TABLE IV.21—OFF MODE BASE-CASE
EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016
FOR SINGLE-PACKAGE CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONERS
Efficiency level
Off-Mode
watts
Baseline ............
1 ........................
2 ........................
3 ** ....................
Market share
of affected
market in
percent*
48
36
30
29
60
30
10
0
* Refers to fraction of central air conditioners
with crankcase heaters.
** Impacts only that fraction of the market
with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting
efficiency level 2 already meet efficiency level
3 off mode power requirements.
TABLE IV.22—OFF MODE BASE-CASE
EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016
FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM AND SINGLEPACKAGE HEAT PUMPS—Continued
Efficiency level
2 ** ....................
Off-Mode
watts
Market share
of affected
market in
percent *
32
0
* Refers to fraction of heat pumps with
crankcase heaters.
** Impacts only that fraction of the market
with ECMs; market with PSC motors meeting
efficiency level 1 already meet efficiency level
2 off mode power requirements.
For further information on DOE’s
estimate of base-case efficiency
distributions, see chapter 8 of the direct
final rule TSD.
TABLE IV.22—OFF MODE BASE-CASE
EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION IN 2016 11. Inputs To Payback Period Analysis
FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM AND SINGLEThe payback period is the amount of
PACKAGE HEAT PUMPS
time it takes the consumer to recover the
Efficiency level
Off-Mode
watts
Baseline ............
1 ........................
Market share
of affected
market in
percent *
50
33
50
50
crankcase heater, the condensed refrigerant will
mix with the crankcase oil, resulting in a watery
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additional installed cost of moreefficient products, compared to baseline
products, through energy cost savings.
The simple payback period does not
account for changes in operating
expense over time or the time value of
money. Payback periods are expressed
in years. Payback periods that exceed
the life of the product mean that the
mixture that can wash out compressor bearings,
leading to premature compressor failure.
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increase in total installed cost is not
recovered in reduced operating
expenses.
The inputs to the PBP calculation are
the total installed cost of the equipment
to the customer for each efficiency level
and the average annual operating
expenditures for each efficiency level.
The PBP calculation uses the same
inputs as the LCC analysis, except that
discount rates are not needed. The
results of DOE’s PBP analysis are
presented in section V.B.1.
12. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
Period
As noted above, EPCA, as amended,
establishes a rebuttable presumption
that a standard is economically justified
if the Secretary finds that the additional
cost to the consumer of purchasing a
product complying with an energy
conservation standard level will be less
than three times the value of the energy
(and, as applicable, water) savings
during the first year that the consumer
will receive as a result of the standard,
as calculated under the test procedure
in place for that standard. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii)) For each considered
efficiency level, DOE determined the
value of the first year’s energy savings
by calculating the quantity of those
savings in accordance with the
applicable DOE test procedure, and
multiplying that amount by the average
energy price forecast for the year in
which compliance with the amended
standard would be required. The results
of DOE’s analysis are presented in
section V.B.1.
G. National Impact Analysis—National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
The national impact analysis (NIA)
assesses the national energy savings
(NES) and the national net present value
(NPV) of total consumer costs and
savings that would be expected to result
from new or amended standards at
specific efficiency levels. (‘‘Consumer’’
in this context refers to users of the
product being regulated.) DOE
calculates the NES and NPV based on
projections of annual appliance
shipments, along with the annual
energy consumption and total installed
cost data from the energy use and LCC
analyses.
For most of the TSLs considered in
the present analysis, DOE forecasted the
energy savings from 2016 through 2045,
and it calculated product costs,
operating cost savings, and NPV of
consumer benefits for products sold
from 2016 through 2045. For TSL 4,
which matches the recommendations in
the consensus agreement, DOE
forecasted the energy savings from 2015
through 2045 for central air conditioners
and heat pumps, and from 2013 through
2045 for furnaces.72 For TSL 4, it
calculated product costs, operating cost
savings, and NPV of consumer benefits
for products sold in these periods.
DOE evaluates the impacts of new or
amended standards by comparing basecase projections with standards-case
projections. The base-case projections
characterize energy use and consumer
costs for each product class in the
absence of new or amended energy
conservation standards. DOE compares
these projections with projections
characterizing the market for each
product class if DOE adopted new or
amended standards at specific energy
efficiency levels (i.e., the TSLs or
standards cases) for that class. For the
base-case forecast, DOE considers
historical trends in efficiency and
various forces that are likely to affect the
mix of efficiencies over time. For the
standards cases, DOE also considers
37481
how a given standard would likely
affect the market shares of products
with efficiencies greater than the
standard.
To make the analysis more accessible
and transparent to all interested parties,
DOE makes publicly available a
spreadsheet model (in Excel format) to
calculate the energy savings and the
national consumer costs and savings
from each TSL. The TSD and other
documentation that DOE provides
during the rulemaking explain the
models and how to use them, and
interested parties can review DOE’s
analyses and also change various input
values within the spreadsheet. The NIA
spreadsheet model uses typical values
as inputs (as opposed to probability
distributions).
For the current analysis, the NIA used
projections of energy prices and housing
starts from the AEO2010 Reference case.
In addition, DOE analyzed scenarios
that used inputs from the AEO2010
High Economic Growth and Low
Economic Growth cases. These cases
have higher and lower energy price
trends compared to the Reference case,
as well as higher and lower housing
starts, respectively, which result in
higher and lower appliance shipments
to new homes. NIA results based on
these cases are presented in appendix
10–A of the direct final rule TSD.
Table IV.23 summarizes the inputs
and methodology DOE used for the NIA
analysis for the central air conditioners
and heat pumps preliminary analysis
and the changes to the analyses for this
rule. For the direct final rule analysis,
DOE used the same basic methodology
for furnaces as it used for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
Discussion of these inputs and methods
follows the table. See chapter 10 of the
direct final rule TSD for further details.
TABLE IV.23—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
Preliminary TSD
Changes for the Direct Final Rule
Shipments ...................................
Compliance Date of Standard .....
Base-Case
Forecasted
Efficiencies.
Annual shipments from shipments model ...................
2016. * ..........................................................................
Based on historical SWEF ** growth rates from 1992
to 2005.
Standards-Case Forecasted Efficiencies.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Inputs
Used a ‘‘roll-up’’ scenario to establish the distribution
of efficiencies in the compliance year; forecasted
efficiencies based on historical SWEF growth rates
from 1992 to 2005 (same as base case).
Annual weighted-average values as a function of
SWEF.
No change.
No change.
No change in basic approach; modified efficiency distributions based on new information from AHRI;
historical SWEF growth rates from 1993 to 2002
(CAC and HP) or 2005 (Furnaces) used to forecast
efficiencies.
Modified efficiency distributions based on new information. Retained ‘‘roll-up’’ scenario. Forecasted efficiencies based on maintaining constant per-unit
total installed costs relative to base case.
No change.
Annual Energy Consumption per
Unit.
72 Compared to all other TSLs, the compliance
date for TSL 4 is earlier for furnaces (in 2013) and
for central air conditioners and heat pumps (in
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2015). DOE used the same end year for TSL 4 as
for all other TSLs to demonstrate the additional
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national impacts that would result from these
earlier compliance dates.
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TABLE IV.23—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS—Continued
Inputs
Preliminary TSD
Changes for the Direct Final Rule
Total Installed Cost per Unit .......
Annual weighted-average values as a function of
SWEF.
Annual weighted-average values as a function of the
annual energy consumption per unit and energy
prices.
Annual values as a function of efficiency level ...........
Incorporated learning rate to forecast product prices.
Annual Energy Cost per Unit ......
Repair and Maintenance Cost
per Unit.
Energy Prices ..............................
Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factor.
Discount Rate ..............................
Present Year ...............................
AEO2009 forecasts (to 2035) and extrapolation
through 2043.
Varies yearly and is generated by NEMS–BT ............
Three and seven percent real .....................................
Future expenses are discounted to 2010 ...................
No change.
No change.
Updated using AEO2010 forecasts.
No change.
No change.
Future expenses are discounted to 2011, when the
final rule will be published.
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* The compliance date used for TSL 4 is 2013 for furnaces and 2015 for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
** Shipments-Weighted Energy Factor.
1. Shipments
The shipments portion of the NIA
spreadsheet is a model that uses
historical data as a basis for projecting
future shipments of the products that
are the subjects of this rulemaking. In
DOE’s shipments models, shipments of
products are driven by replacement of
the existing stock of installed products,
new home or building construction, and
existing households or buildings that do
not already own the product (referred to
hereafter as ‘‘new owners’’). Central air
conditioners and heat pumps are used
in some commercial buildings as well as
for residences. Based on industry input,
DOE estimated that 7 percent of central
air conditioner and heat pump
shipments are to commercial
applications, and accounted for these
shipments in the shipments model.
The shipments model takes an
accounting approach, tracking market
shares of each product class and the
vintage of units in the existing stock.
Stock accounting uses product
shipments as inputs to estimate the age
distribution of in-service product stocks
for all relevant years. The age
distribution of in-service product stocks
is a key input to NES and NPV
calculations because operating costs for
any year depend on the age distribution
of the stock. DOE used historical
product shipments to assist in
calibrating the shipments model.
For the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, AHRI
provided historical shipments data for
each of the four primary product
classes—split-system air conditioners,
single-package air conditioners, splitsystem heat pumps, and single-package
heat pumps. AHRI also provided
regional shipments data for each
product class for two years—2008 and
2009. The limited regional shipments
data, in combination with calibration of
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the resulting product stock saturations
to the values specified by past RECS
surveys and U.S. Census Bureau
American Housing Survey (AHS) data,
allowed DOE to develop historical
residential shipments disaggregated by
region. Commercial shipments were
allocated regionally based on the
percentage allocations determined for
residential shipments.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to: (1) Develop base-case
shipments forecasts for each of the four
Census regions that, in turn, could be
aggregated to produce regional or
national forecasts; and (2) to project
shipments of residential furnaces by
primarily accounting for sales to the
replacement market and new homes.
For the direct final rule analysis,
DOE’s base-case shipments forecasts
used the same approach for central air
conditioners and heat pumps as was
used in the preliminary analysis, and
used the approach described in the RAP
for furnaces. For details on the
shipments analysis, see chapter 9 of the
direct final rule TSD.
a. Impact of Potential Standards on
Shipments
For the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, to
estimate the impact that potential
standards would have on product
shipments, DOE analyzed the impact
that purchase price, operating costs, and
household income have had on
historical central air conditioner and
heat pump shipments. From this
analysis, DOE derived a relative price
elasticity that estimates shipments
impacts as a function of the increase in
purchase price, operating cost savings,
and household income. Although the
correlation among historical shipments
and the above three parameters is not
strong, there is enough evidence to
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suggest a connection. Of the three
parameters, purchase price has the most
significant impact on product shipments
(an increase in product purchase price
will lead to a decrease in product
shipments). DOE only considered
shipments decreases in the replacement
and new owner markets.73 In the case of
the replacement market, DOE assumed
that any drop in shipments would be
caused by consumers deciding to repair
rather than replace their products. DOE
estimated that the extended repair
would last 6 years, after which time the
products would be replaced.
Commenting on the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary TSD, HARDI expressed
concern that increases in the minimum
efficiency required of residential central
air conditioner units could lead to
increased repair of legacy units, which
would impact sales of new units. (CAC:
HARDI, No. 56 at p. 3) Ingersoll Rand
expressed a similar view, arguing that
such a trend was noticeable after the
implementation of the 13–SEER central
air conditioner standard. (CAC: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 66 at p. 3)
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to develop standards-case
forecasts that reflect the projected
impacts of potential standards on
product shipments. In the planned
approach, the magnitude of the
difference between the standards-case
and base-case shipment forecasts
depends on the estimated purchase
price increase, as well as the operating
cost savings caused by the considered
73 Because most new construction is now
routinely equipped with either a central air
conditioner or heat pump, DOE assumed that any
increase in purchase price caused by standards
would not affect the decision to install a central air
conditioner or heat pump system in new
construction.
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energy conservation standard, relative to
household income.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
several parties stated that DOE should
consider that high installed costs
resulting from amended energy
conservation standards might cause
some consumers to repair their existing
furnaces instead of replacing them with
higher-efficiency units. Specifically,
AGA stated that DOE has not considered
the likelihood of repair over
replacement of existing furnaces,
particularly where replacement of noncondensing furnaces with condensing
furnaces has potentially high venting
system upgrade costs. (FUR: AGA, No.
1.3.010 at p. 2) Carrier stated that the
economic burden of a 90-percent AFUE
standard may lead some consumers in
some areas not to replace a furnace that
they might otherwise replace. (FUR:
Carrier, No. 1.2.006 at p. 207) APGA
made the same point, adding that the
installation cost adders (i.e., costs over
and above typical costs) of furnaces at
90-percent AFUE and above could even
lead to the need for replacement of heat
exchangers. (FUR: APGA, No. 1.3.004 at
p. 3) Ingersoll Rand stated that
preservation of the existing HVAC
system is a very real prospect if the
price for increased efficiency is not
deemed warranted by the consumer. It
added that if amended standards would
require a condensing furnace with an
ECM blower in a climate where
consumers do not feel the added
expense is warranted, they will be
disposed to extend the life of the
existing furnace, even to the point of
replacing a heat exchanger and burners
if that is necessary. (FUR: Ingersoll
Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 12) AGA and
APGA stated that DOE particularly
needs to consider the likelihood of
higher rates of repair over replacement
in manufactured housing, where owners
may have limited ability to afford a
condensing furnace as a replacement.
(FUR: AGA, No. 1.3.010 at p. 5; APGA,
No. 1.3.004 at p. 4) HARDI stated that
increases in minimum efficiency
standards for HVAC systems could
encourage repair of existing systems in
need of replacement, which could risk
the health and safety of homeowners.
(FUR: HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at p. 3)
DOE agrees that amended standards
that result in considerably higher
installed costs could lead some
consumers to repair their existing
furnace, central air conditioner, or heat
pump instead of replacing it with a new,
higher-efficiency unit. However, DOE is
not aware of a satisfactory approach for
estimating the extent of this
phenomenon. There exists considerable
uncertainty regarding the metric that
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consumers might use to make the
decision to repair rather than replace
their HVAC equipment. In addition,
there are a variety of potential repair
possibilities, each having different costs
and impacts on extending equipment
lifetime, and DOE has no way to
estimate which types of repair would be
most likely. Thus, DOE was not able to
explicitly model the extent to which
consumers might repair their existing
furnace (or central air conditioner or
heat pump) instead of replacing it with
a higher-efficiency unit. Instead, for the
direct final rule analysis, DOE used the
same approach as in the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary TSD to estimate the impact
that standards may have on shipments
of central air conditioners, heat pumps,
and also furnaces. That is, DOE applied
a relative price elasticity that estimates
shipments impacts as a function of the
increase in purchase price, operating
cost savings, and household income.
Application of this elasticity parameter
likely captures some of the effects of
‘‘extended repair’’ by some consumers.
Although the elasticity parameter was
estimated using data on historical
central air conditioner and heat pump
shipments, DOE believes that it is
reasonable to apply it to the case of
furnaces as well, given the broad
similarities in the markets for
residential central air conditioning and
heating equipment.
Regarding the expressed concern that
repair of existing systems in need of
replacement could risk the health and
safety of homeowners, DOE notes that
contractors have a legal responsibility to
perform repairs according to the
requirements of applicable codes.
Further, issues about sub-standard
repair practices could as well arise in
the absence of amended standards.
Because home builders are sensitive
to the cost of HVAC equipment, a
standard level that significantly
increases purchase price may induce
some builders to switch to a different
heating system than they would have
otherwise installed. Such an amended
standard level may also induce some
home owners to replace their existing
furnace at the end of its useful life with
a different type of heating product,
although in this case, switching may
incur additional costs to accommodate
the different product. The decision to
switch is also affected by the prices of
the energy sources for competing
equipment. For the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary analysis, DOE used the
relative price elasticity described above
to account for any equipment switching
that may result from standards requiring
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higher-efficiency products. That is,
equipment switching was implicitly
included in the response to higher
equipment prices that is modeled using
the elasticity parameter. In the furnaces
RAP, DOE stated its intention to account
for fuel and equipment switching that
may result from amended standards
requiring higher-efficiency furnaces.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
some parties stated that a standard
requiring condensing furnaces could
cause some consumers to switch from
gas furnaces to electric resistance
heating systems. (FUR: AGA, No.
1.3.010 at p. 6; APGA, No. 1.3.004 at p.
3; NPGA, No. 1.3.005 at p. 3) NPGA
stated that in existing homes with
central air conditioning and gas
furnaces, switching to a heat pump
represents a feasible option. (FUR:
NPGA, No. 1.3.005 at p. 3) AGA and
APGA also stated that a standard
requiring condensing furnaces could
cause some consumers with hybrid heat
pump/furnace-backup heating systems
to switch to all-electric heat pump
systems. (AGA, No. 1.3.010 at p. 7;
APGA, No. 1.3.004 at p. 3)
Several parties regarded fuel
switching as unlikely for a variety of
reasons. ACEEE stated that the barriers
to fuel switching in the retrofit market
are high enough that few cases will be
encountered. As an example, it stated
that switching from a heat pump to a gas
furnace is prohibitively expensive if gas
service is not already available at the
curb or in the house. With respect to
fuel switching in new construction,
ACEEE stated that it expects builders to
seek favorable terms for installing gas
heat and water heat rather than switch
to electric heating. (FUR: ACEEE,
No.1.3.009 at pp. 7–8) NEEP stated they
found no reason consumers would
switch from gas-fueled to either oilfueled or electric technologies in
response to standards. (NEEP, No.
1.3.021 at pp. 2–3) HARDI stated that a
change in efficiency standards is
unlikely to spur fuel switching, which
more commonly is driven by energy
costs. (HARDI, No. 1.3.016 at p. 10)
Ingersoll Rand stated that consumers
tend to heat with gas if it is available.
It added that retail gas suppliers can be
expected, on the whole, to maintain gas
prices at a level to discourage switching
in existing homes, and with new
construction, to strive to remain
competitive in areas they wish to serve.
(FUR: Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p.
14)
For the direct final rule, DOE did not
explicitly quantify the potential for fuel
switching from gas furnaces to electric
heating equipment, based upon the
following reasoning. DOE conducted a
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thorough review of the 2005 RECS to
assess the type of space-heating system
utilized by consumers as a function of
house heating load. Gas furnaces are
primarily utilized in households with
high heating loads, while electric space
heating systems are almost exclusively
used in households with low heating
loads. Generally, this is because the
operating costs of electric space heating
systems are relatively high due to the
price of electricity, so using an electric
system in a cold climate is significantly
more expensive than using a gas
furnace. Based on the above finding,
DOE inferred that consumers with high
heating loads would be unlikely to
switch to electric space heating systems
as a result of amended standards. In
addition, for a household with a gas
furnace to switch to electric space
heating, a separate circuit up to 30-amps
would need to be installed at a cost of
approximately $300 to power the
electric resistance heater within an
electric furnace or heat pump system.74
On average, the electrical circuit cost is
approximately 60 percent of the added
installation cost of a more expensive
venting system required for highefficiency, condensing furnaces, further
diminishing the likelihood of a
consumer switching from gas to electric
heating.
As briefly described above, for the
direct final rule, DOE conducted an
analysis of the potential for equipment
switching between a split system heat
pump and the combination of a split
system central air conditioner and
electric furnace. To estimate the
likelihood of equipment switching
between these two systems, DOE
utilized proprietary data from Decision
Analysts,75 which identified for a
representative sample of consumers
their willingness to purchase moreefficient space-conditioning systems.
From these data, DOE deduced the
payback period that consumers would
expect for a more-expensive but moreefficient product. For each pairing of
split heat pump and split air
conditioner efficiency levels, DOE
applied the payback period criterion to
estimate the fraction of consumers who
would be expected to switch to the
other type of equipment. For example,
when comparing a 15 SEER split system
heat pump and a combination of a 14
SEER split air conditioner and an
electric furnace, DOE calculated the
payback period of the more-efficient
split system heat pump relative to the
74 Based
on RS Means, Residential Cost Data
2010, Reed Construction Data, Kingston, MA.
75 Decision Analysts, ‘‘2008 American Home
Comfort Study’’ (2009).
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less-expensive combination of split air
conditioner and electric furnace. If the
resulting payback period for the split
system heat pump exceeded the
expected payback period deduced from
the Decision Analysts’ data, DOE
forecasted that the consumer would
switch to the combination of split air
conditioner and electric furnace. For
every possible pairing of split system
heat pump and split system air
conditioner efficiencies, DOE calculated
the fraction of consumers who would be
expected to switch from one type of
split system to the other. The fraction of
consumers switching was in turn used
by DOE to forecast split system heat
pump and split system air conditioner
shipments in specific standards cases,
as well as the increase in electric
furnace shipments. Including the latter
in accounting for the impacts of
equipment switching is important for
proper determination of national energy
savings and national economic impacts.
Because measures to limit standby
mode and off mode power consumption
have a very small impact on equipment
total installed cost, and thereby would
have a minimal effect on consumer
purchase decisions, DOE did not
analyze the impact to central air
conditioner, heat pumps, and furnace
shipments due to potential standards
limiting standby mode and off mode
power consumption. In other words,
DOE estimated that base-case product
shipments would be unaffected by
standards to limit standby mode and off
mode power consumption.
For details on DOE’s analysis of the
impacts of standards on shipments, see
chapter 9 of the direct final rule TSD.
For details on DOE’s analysis of
equipment and fuel switching, see
appendix 9–A of the direct final rule
TSD.
2. Forecasted Efficiency in the Base Case
and Standards Cases
A key component of the NIA is the
trend in energy efficiency forecasted for
the base case (without new or amended
standards) and each of the standards
cases. Section IV.F.10 describes how
DOE developed a base-case energy
efficiency distribution (which yields a
shipment-weighted average efficiency
(SWEF)) for each of the considered
product classes for the compliance year
used in the LCC analysis (2016). To
forecast base-case efficiencies over the
entire forecast period for the direct final
rule, DOE extrapolated from the
historical trends in efficiency, as
described below.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, DOE reviewed historical SWEF
data from 1990 to 2009 provided by
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AHRI. The historical data, which
encompassed years when new standards
for central air conditioners and heat
pumps required compliance (1992 and
2006), specified SWEFs for each of the
four primary central air conditioner and
heat pump product classes. DOE
considered only the 1993 to 2002 time
period to forecast SWEF growth rates in
order to factor out: (1) Any lingering
effects on equipment SWEFs from
industry efforts to comply with the 1992
standards; (2) any anticipatory efforts by
the industry to comply with the 2006
standards that DOE issued in 2001; and
(3) the effects of recent Federal tax
credits to promote the purchase of highefficiency central air conditioners and
heat pumps. From 1993 to 2002, central
air conditioner and heat pump
efficiency increased, on average, by 0.5
to 0.7 SEER, depending on product
class, which is an efficiency growth rate
of approximately 0.06 to 0.07 SEER per
year.
For non-weatherized gas furnaces,
DOE was provided historical data from
1990 to 2009 by AHRI, detailing the
market shares of non-condensing (80
percent AFUE and less) and condensing
(90 percent AFUE and greater)
equipment.76 Similar to its approach for
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE used only the data from 1993 to
2002 to factor out the lingering effects
of new furnace standards that required
compliance in 1992 as well as the
effects of market-pull programs,
including recent Federal tax credits, to
promote the purchase of high-efficiency
condensing furnaces. From 1993 to
2002, non-weatherized gas furnace
efficiency increased, on average, by 0.5
AFUE and 1.5 AFUE percentage points
in the southern and northern U.S.,
respectively, which implies efficiency
growth rates of approximately 0.05 and
0.17 AFUE percentage points per year.
DOE used the above growth rates for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
and furnaces to forecast base-case
SWEFs over the forecast period. Due to
the lack of historical efficiency data for
mobile home and oil-fired furnaces,
DOE estimated that product efficiency
distributions would remain the same
throughout the forecast period.
To estimate efficiency trends in the
standards cases, DOE has used ‘‘roll-up’’
and/or ‘‘shift’’ scenarios in its standards
rulemakings. Under the ‘‘roll-up’’
scenario, DOE assumes: (1) Product
efficiencies in the base case that do not
meet the standard level under
76 The market share of furnaces with AFUE
between 80 and 90 percent is well below 1 percent
due to the very high installed cost of 81-percent
AFUE furnaces, compared with condensing designs,
and concerns about safety of operation.
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consideration would ‘‘roll-up’’ to meet
the new standard level; and (2) product
efficiencies above the standard level
under consideration would not be
affected. Under the ‘‘shift’’ scenario,
DOE retains the pattern of the base-case
efficiency distribution but reorients the
distribution at and above the potential
new minimum energy conservation
standard.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, DOE
concluded that amended standards will
cause baseline models to roll up to the
standard efficiency level in the year of
compliance, but that some fraction of
shipments will remain above the
minimum. DOE calculated the SWEFs
from the resulting efficiency
distribution. In the years following the
year of compliance, DOE estimated that
SWEFs will continue to grow at the rate
observed between 1992 and 2005 until
the max-tech efficiency level is attained,
at which point the SWEF was held
constant.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP,
NRDC and ASAP stated that market
penetration in standards cases will
resemble the shift scenario more than
the roll-up scenario. (FUR: NRDC, No.
1.3.020 at p. 10; ASAP, No. 1.2.006 at
p. 216) NRDC added that the existence
of successful Federal tax incentives for
furnaces with 95 percent AFUE
indicates that sales of these units are
likely to continue to increase. (FUR:
NRDC, No. 1.3.020 at p. 11) In contrast,
HARDI commented that roll-up and
shift scenarios are unlikely under an
amended energy conservation standard,
and stated that an increase in minimum
efficiency standards for furnaces or
central air conditioners and heat pumps
is likely to negatively impact the other
energy efficiency programs that have
been vital to achieving the growing
penetration of higher-efficiency HVAC
systems. (FUR: HARDI, No.1.3.016 at p.
3) ACEEE stated there is no strong
reason to choose a roll-up scenario
instead of a shift scenario based on the
available evidence, and ACEEE
encouraged DOE to consider both
scenarios, premised on the likelihood of
the continuation of incentives if there is
a 90-percent AFUE furnace efficiency
standard for the north. (FUR: ACEEE,
No.1.3.009 at p. 8) The California IOUs
also supported the use of both the rollup and shift scenarios. (FUR: CA IOUs,
No. 1.3.017 at p. 5)
In response, DOE again reviewed the
historical efficiency data for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and
furnaces from AHRI. It did not find any
evidence to support a shift in the
efficiency distribution in the year of
compliance with amended standards.
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Therefore, for the direct final rule
analysis, DOE decided to continue to
utilize the roll-up scenario for central
air conditioners and heat pumps in
order to forecast the impact of standards
for the year of compliance. DOE applied
the roll-up scenario to furnaces as well.
However, DOE agrees with the
suggestion by some of the commenters
that the efficiency distribution will shift
after compliance with amended
standards is required. DOE captured this
expected market change in its forecast of
efficiency in the standards cases, as
described below.
To forecast standards-case SWEFs
after the year of compliance, rather than
use the same efficiency growth rate as
the base case, DOE developed growth
trends for each candidate standard level
that reflect the likelihood that the
consumer willingness to pay for an
increment of efficiency will be the same
in the base case and the standards case.
In revising its analysis, DOE found that
the cost of a relatively small efficiency
improvement over the most common
product in the standards case is much
higher than in the base case. Therefore,
assuming the same efficiency increment
in the base case and standards case
would imply that the consumer
willingness to pay for an increment of
efficiency would dramatically increase
under standards without the addition of
any incentives or information. This is a
phenomenon that DOE has not observed
in any of its efficiency market analysis
or modeling investigations. Therefore,
for the direct final rule, DOE developed
an approach in which the growth rate
slows over time in response to the
increasing incremental cost of efficiency
improvements. DOE assumed that the
rate of adoption of more-efficient
products under a standards case occurs
at a rate which ensures that the average
total installed cost difference between
the standards case and base case over
the entire forecast period is constant.
DOE modified the general approach
for split-system coil-only air conditioner
replacement units at 15 SEER and
above, for which many consumers
would incur a very large additional cost
(an average of $959) to install a furnace
fan kit (as explained in section IV.F.1).
DOE believes that for much of the
market, this cost would constrain
demand for split-system coil-only air
conditioner replacement units at 15
SEER and above. Thus, in analyzing
standards cases below 15 SEER, as well
as the base case, DOE forecast that the
market shares of units at 15 SEER and
above would remain at the 2016 level.
For split-system coil-only air
conditioner replacement units, DOE also
analyzed a sensitivity case that reflects
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a more sophisticated model of efficiency
market shares than the reference case
analysis. In this case, there is a gradual
shift of efficiency in the base case, with
the rate of shift dependent on the price
difference between an efficiency market
share and the next highest efficiency
market share. DOE calibrated the
parameters of this model to the observed
historical shift rate without tax
incentives. The result of this model is
that while there is more market shifting
over the long term forecast to the very
high efficiency levels, there is slower
market shifting at the lower efficiency
levels earlier in the forecast period. In
analyzing standards cases below 15
SEER, DOE forecast that the market
shares of units at 15 SEER and above
would be no greater than the base case.
The results of this sensitivity in terms
of the consumer NPV are presented in
section V.B.3.a. More discussion along
with detailed results from the sensitivity
calculation are provided in appendix
10–D of the TSD.
For single package air conditioners
and heat pumps, DOE observes that the
market conditions are somewhat
distinct from split system air
conditioners as more than 90 percent of
the single package market is comprised
of low efficiency products of 13 to 14
SEER. In addition, DOE observes that
higher efficiency single-package systems
are more expensive relative to the lower
efficiency models compared to the
general cost structure for split system
units. This indicates that efficiency
trends for single-package systems are
likely to be smaller than those for split
systems. Nonetheless, DOE modeled the
efficiency trends for single-package
units the same as it modeled the trends
for blower-coil split systems. While
DOE believes that this approach is
conservative, DOE did not have the data
available to calibrate a more precise
forecast of efficiency trends for this
product class. An overestimate of the
efficiency trend will likely lead to an
overestimate of equipment costs
resulting from a standard for these
products. As a result, net consumer
benefits from a standard are likely to be
higher than the DOE estimate provided
in this notice.
In the case of standby mode and off
mode power consumption, DOE used a
roll-up scenario to forecast the impact of
potential standards for the year of
compliance. Due to the lack of historical
information on standby mode and off
mode power consumption in central air
conditioners, heat pumps, and furnace
equipment, DOE estimated that
efficiency distributions of standby mode
and off mode power consumption
would remain the same until 2045.
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For further details about the
forecasted efficiency distributions, see
chapter 10 of the direct final rule TSD.
3. Installed Cost per Unit
In the preliminary analysis, DOE
assumed that the manufacturer costs
and retail prices of products meeting
various efficiency levels remain fixed,
in real terms, after 2009 (the year for
which the engineering analysis
estimated costs) and throughout the
period of the analysis. As discussed in
section IV.F.1, examination of historical
price data for certain appliances and
equipment that have been subject to
energy conservation standards indicates
that the assumption of constant real
prices and costs may, in many cases,
over-estimate long-term appliance and
equipment price trends.
On February 22, 2011, DOE published
a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 76
FR 9696) stating that DOE may consider
improving regulatory analysis by
addressing equipment price trends.
Consistent with the NODA, DOE used
historical producer price indices (PPI)
for room air conditioners and household
laundry equipment as a proxy for price
data. DOE does not have price data for
this equipment. DOE believes that PPI
might shed some directionally-correct
light on the price trend, recognizing that
PPI is not a good proxy for price
information because it incorporates
shipment information, among other
reasons. DOE found a long-term
declining real price trend for both
products. DOE used experience curve
fits to forecast a price scaling index to
forecast product costs into the future for
this rulemaking. DOE also considered
the public comments that were received
in response to the NODA and refined
the evaluation of its experience curve
trend forecasting estimates. Many
commenters were supportive of DOE
moving from an assumption-based
equipment price trend forecasting
method to a data-driven methodology
for forecasting price trends. Other
commenters were skeptical that DOE
could accurately forecast price trends
given the many variables and factors
that can complicate both the estimation
and the interpretation of the numerical
price trend results and the relationship
between price and cost. DOE evaluated
these concerns and determined that
retaining the assumption-based
approach of a constant real price trend
is consistent with the NODA when data
gaps are sufficient. DOE presents the
estimates based on a constant real price
trend as a reasonable upper bound on
the future equipment price trend. DOE
also performed an initial evaluation of
the possibility of other factors
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complicating the estimation of the longterm price trend, and developed a range
of potential price trend values that were
consistent with the available data and
justified by the amount of data that was
available to DOE at this time. DOE
recognizes that its price trend
forecasting methods are likely to be
modified as more data and information
becomes available to enhance the rigor
and robustness of the trend estimate and
the completeness of the model.
Additional data should enable an
improved evaluation of the potential
impacts of more of the factors that can
influence equipment price trends over
time.
To evaluate the impact of the
uncertainty of the price trend estimates,
DOE performed price trend sensitivity
calculations in the national impact
analysis to examine the dependence of
the analysis results on different
analytical assumptions. DOE also
included a constant real price trend
assumption as an upper bound on the
forecast price trend. DOE found that for
the selected standard levels the benefits
outweighed the burdens under all
scenarios.
A more detailed discussion of price
trend modeling and calculations is
provided in Appendix 8–J of the TSD.
4. National Energy Savings
For each year in the forecast period,
DOE calculates the NES for each
considered standard level by
multiplying the stock of equipment
affected by the energy conservation
standards by the per-unit annual energy
savings. As discussed in section IV.E,
DOE incorporated the rebound effect
utilized in the energy use analysis into
its calculation of national energy
savings.
To estimate the national energy
savings expected from amended
appliance standards, DOE used a
multiplicative factor to convert site
energy consumption (at the home or
commercial building) into primary or
source energy consumption (the energy
required to convert and deliver the site
energy). These conversion factors
account for the energy used at power
plants to generate electricity and losses
in transmission and distribution, as well
as for natural gas losses from pipeline
leakage and energy used for pumping.
For electricity, the conversion factors
vary over time due to changes in
generation sources (i.e., the power plant
types projected to provide electricity to
the country) projected in AEO2010. The
factors that DOE developed are marginal
values, which represent the response of
the electricity sector to an incremental
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decrease in consumption associated
with potential appliance standards.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary analysis, DOE
used annual site-to-source conversion
factors based on the version of NEMS
that corresponds to AEO2009. For
today’s direct final rule, DOE updated
its conversion factors based on the
NEMS that corresponds to AEO2010,
which provides energy forecasts through
2035. For 2036–2045, DOE used
conversion factors that remain constant
at the 2035 values.
Section 1802 of the Energy Policy Act
of 2005 (EPACT 2005) directed DOE to
contract a study with the National
Academy of Science (NAS) to examine
whether the goals of energy efficiency
standards are best served by
measurement of energy consumed, and
efficiency improvements, at the actual
point-of-use or through the use of the
full-fuel-cycle, beginning at the source
of energy production (Pub. L. 109–58
(Aug. 8, 2005)). NAS appointed a
committee on ‘‘Point-of-Use and FullFuel-Cycle Measurement Approaches to
Energy Efficiency Standards’’ to conduct
the study, which was completed in May
2009. The NAS committee defined ‘‘fullfuel-cycle energy consumption’’ as
including, in addition to site energy use,
the following: (1) Energy consumed in
the extraction, processing, and transport
of primary fuels such as coal, oil, and
natural gas; (2) energy losses in thermal
combustion in power generation plants;
and (3) energy losses in transmission
and distribution to homes and
commercial buildings.77
In evaluating the merits of using
point-of-use and full-fuel-cycle
measures, the NAS committee noted
that DOE currently uses what the
committee referred to as ‘‘extended site’’
energy consumption to assess the
impact of energy use on the economy,
energy security, and environmental
quality. The extended site measure of
energy consumption includes the energy
consumed during the generation,
transmission, and distribution of
electricity but, unlike the full-fuel-cycle
measure, does not include the energy
consumed in extracting, processing, and
transporting primary fuels. A majority of
the NAS committee concluded that
extended site energy consumption
understates the total energy consumed
to make an appliance operational at the
site. As a result, the NAS committee
77 The National Academies, Board on Energy and
Environmental Systems, Letter to Dr. John Mizroch,
Acting Assistant Secretary, U.S. DOE, Office of
EERE from James W. Dally, Chair, Committee on
Point-of-Use and Full-Fuel-Cycle Measurement
Approaches to Energy Efficiency Standards (May
15, 2009).
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recommended that DOE consider
shifting its analytical approach over
time to use a full-fuel-cycle measure of
energy consumption when assessing
national and environmental impacts,
especially with respect to the
calculation of greenhouse gas emissions.
The NAS committee also recommended
that DOE provide more comprehensive
information to the public through labels
and other means, such as an enhanced
Web site. For those appliances that use
multiple fuels (e.g., water heaters), the
NAS committee indicated that
measuring full-fuel-cycle energy
consumption would provide a more
complete picture of energy consumed
and permit comparisons across many
different appliances, as well as an
improved assessment of impacts.
In response to the NAS
recommendations, DOE published in
the Federal Register, on August 20,
2010, a Notice of Proposed Policy
proposing to incorporate a full-fuel
cycle analysis into the methods it uses
to estimate the likely impacts of energy
conservation standards on energy use
and emissions. 75 FR 51423.
Specifically, DOE proposed to use fullfuel-cycle (FFC) measures of energy and
GHG emissions, rather than the primary
(extended site) energy measures it
currently uses. Additionally, DOE
proposed to work collaboratively with
the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to
make FFC energy and GHG emissions
data available to the public so as to
enable consumers to make cross-class
comparisons. On October 7, 2010, DOE
held an informal public meeting at DOE
headquarters in Washington, DC to
discuss and receive comments on its
planned approach. The Notice of
Proposed Policy, a transcript of the
public meeting, and all public
comments received by DOE are
available at: https://www.regulations.gov/
search/Regs/home.html#docket
Detail?R=EERE-2010-BT-NOA-0028.
DOE intends to develop a final policy
statement on these subjects and then
take steps to begin implementing that
policy in rulemakings and other
activities that are undertaken during
2011.
operating costs and total increases in
installed costs. DOE calculates operating
cost savings over the life of each
product shipped in the forecast period.
DOE multiplies the net savings in
future years by a discount factor to
determine their present value. For the
central air conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary analysis and today’s direct
final rule, DOE estimated the NPV of
appliance consumer benefits using both
a 3-percent and a 7-percent real
discount rate. DOE uses these discount
rates in accordance with guidance
provided by the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies
on the development of regulatory
analysis.78 The 7-percent real value is
an estimate of the average before-tax rate
of return to private capital in the U.S.
economy. The 3-percent real value
represents the ‘‘societal rate of time
preference,’’ which is the rate at which
society discounts future consumption
flows to their present value. The
discount rates for the determination of
NPV are in contrast to the discount rates
used in the LCC analysis, which are
designed to reflect a consumer’s
perspective
As noted above, DOE is accounting for
the rebound effect associated with moreefficient furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps in its
determination of national energy
savings. As previously discussed in
section IV.F, because the rebound effect
provides consumers with increased
value (i.e., a more comfortable
environment), DOE believes that, if it
were able to monetize the increased
value to consumers added by the
rebound effect, this value would be
similar in value to the foregone energy
savings. For this standards rulemaking,
DOE estimates that this value is
equivalent to the monetary value of the
energy savings that would have
occurred without the rebound effect.
Therefore, DOE concluded that the
economic impacts on consumers with or
without the rebound effect, as measured
in the NPV, are the same.
5. Net Present Value of Consumer
Benefit
The inputs for determining the NPV
of the total costs and benefits
experienced by consumers of the
considered appliances are: (1) Total
annual installed cost; (2) total annual
savings in operating costs; and (3) a
discount factor. DOE calculates net
savings each year as the difference
between the base case and each
standards case in total savings in
In the furnaces RAP, DOE described
its plans to use NEMS–BT to analyze the
impact on natural gas prices resulting
from amended standards on furnaces,
and the associated benefits for all
natural gas consumers in all sectors of
the economy. Commenting on the RAP,
EarthJustice stated that DOE must
consider standards’ economic benefit to
the nation through reductions in natural
gas prices resulting from gas furnace
efficiency improvements. (FUR:
EarthJustice, No. 1.3.014 at p. 7) In
contrast, Ingersoll Rand stated that
standards may bring gas users no cost
savings, and that DOE should not
incorporate any potential savings into
its considerations. (FUR: Ingersoll Rand,
No. 1.3.006 at p. 13)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
used NEMS–BT to model the impact of
the natural gas savings associated with
possible standards on natural gas prices.
The response of price observed in the
NEMS–BT output changes over the
forecast period based on the model’s
dynamics of natural gas supply and
demand. For each year, DOE calculated
the nominal savings in total natural gas
expenditures by multiplying the
estimated annual change in the
national-average end-user natural gas
price by the annual total U.S. natural
gas consumption projected in AEO2010,
adjusted for the estimated natural gas
savings associated with each TSL. DOE
then calculated the NPV of the savings
in natural gas expenditures for 2016–
2045 (or 2013–2045 for TSL 4), using 3percent and 7-percent discount rates for
each scenario.
Although amended standards for
furnaces may yield benefits to all
consumers associated with reductions
in natural gas prices, DOE retains the
position (recently set forth in the final
rule for residential heating products (75
FR 20112, 20175 (April 16, 2010)) that
it should not place a heavy emphasis on
this factor in its consideration of the
economic justification of standards.
EPCA specifically directs DOE to
consider the economic impact of an
amended standard on manufacturers
and consumers of the products subject
to the standard. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)) While it is true that
EPCA directs DOE to consider other
factors the Secretary considers relevant,
in so doing, DOE takes under
advisement the guidance provided by
OMB on the development of regulatory
analysis. Specifically, Circular A–4
states, ‘‘You should not include
transfers in the estimates of the benefits
and costs of a regulation.’’ 79 When gas
prices drop in response to lower
demand and lower output of existing
natural gas production capacity,
consumers benefit but producers suffer.
In economic terms, the situation
represents a benefits transfer to
78 OMB Circular A–4, section E, ‘‘Identifying and
Measuring Benefits and Costs’’ (Sept. 17, 2003)
(Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
memoranda/m03-21.html).
79 OMB Circular A–4, section E, ‘‘Identifying and
Measuring Benefits and Costs’’ (Sept. 17, 2003), p.
38. (Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
memoranda/m03-21.html).
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6. Benefits From Effects of Standards on
Energy Prices
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consumers (whose expenditures fall)
from producers (whose revenue falls
equally). On the other hand, when gas
prices decrease because extraction costs
decline, however, consumers and
producers both benefit, and the change
in natural gas prices represents a net
gain to society. Consumers benefit from
the lower prices, and producers, whose
revenues and costs both fall, are no
worse off. DOE is continuing to
investigate the extent to which a change
in natural gas prices projected to result
from potential standards represents a
net gain to society. At this time,
however, it is not able to reasonably
determine the extent of transfers
associated with a decrease in gas prices
resulting from appliance standards.
Reduction in electricity consumption
associated with amended standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps
could reduce the electricity prices
charged to consumers in all sectors of
the economy and thereby reduce total
electricity expenditures. In chapter 2 of
the central air conditioners and heat
pumps preliminary TSD, DOE explained
that, because the electric power industry
is a complex mix of fuel and equipment
suppliers, electricity producers, and
distributors, and because it has a varied
institutional structure, DOE did not plan
to estimate the value of potentiallyreduced electricity costs for all
consumers associated with amended
standards for central air conditioners
and heat pumps.
Commenting on the preliminary TSD,
NPCC stated that the economic benefits
of the reduced need for new power
plants should be estimated using the
NEMS–BT forecast. (FUR: NPCC, No. 74
at p. 6) ACEEE made a similar point.
(ACEEE, No. 72 at p. 7)
For the direct final rule, DOE used
NEMS–BT to assess the impacts of the
reduced need for new electric power
plants and infrastructure projected to
result from amended standards. In
NEMS–BT, changes in power generation
infrastructure affect utility revenue
requirements, which in turn affect
electricity prices. DOE estimated the
impact on electricity prices associated
with each considered TSL. Although the
aggregate benefits for electricity users
are potentially large, there may be
negative effects on some of the actors
involved in the electricity supply chain,
particularly power plant providers and
fuel suppliers. Because there is
uncertainty about the extent to which
the benefits for electricity users from
reduced electricity prices would be a
transfer from actors involved in the
electricity supply chain to electricity
consumers, DOE has concluded that, at
present, it should not place a heavy
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emphasis on this factor in its
consideration of the economic
justification of new or amended
standards. DOE is continuing to
investigate the extent to which
electricity price changes projected to
result from amended standards
represent a net gain to society.
H. Consumer Subgroup Analysis
In analyzing the potential impacts of
new or amended standards on
consumers, DOE evaluates the impacts
on identifiable subgroups of consumers
that may be disproportionately affected
by a national standard. DOE evaluates
impacts on particular subgroups of
consumers primarily by analyzing the
LCC impacts and PBP for those
particular consumers from alternative
standard levels.
In the central air conditioners and
heat pumps preliminary TSD, DOE
stated that it will evaluate impacts on
consumer subgroups, especially lowincome and small-business consumers.
For the direct final rule, DOE also
analyzed a consumer subgroup
consisting of households occupied
solely by senior citizens (senior-only
households) for national standards.
However, in the 2005 RECS sample used
for the subgroup analysis, the number of
low-income and senior-only households
with a central air conditioner was too
small to produce reliable results at the
regional level, and the number of lowincome and senior-only households
with a heat pump was too small to
produce reliable results at either the
national or the regional level.
Accordingly, DOE performed the
analysis for these subgroups only at the
national level and only for air
conditioners.
During the development of the
preliminary TSD, it was thought that an
analysis could be done of small
businesses. However, DOE was not able
to locate information on the energy use
or economic characteristics of
commercial users of residential air
conditioning units in commercial
buildings, so no analysis was done of a
small business subgroup.
In the furnaces RAP, DOE stated its
intention to evaluate impacts of
amended furnace standards on lowincome and senior-only households,
because the potential higher first cost of
products that meet amended standards
may lead to negative impacts for these
particular groups. In response to the
furnaces RAP, DOE received comments
about which subgroups should be
included in the consumer subgroup
analysis. AGA and APGA stated that
DOE should analyze the new
construction and replacement markets
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separately for the subgroup analysis.
(FUR: AGA, No. 1.3.010 at pp. 3–4;
APGA, No. 1.3.004 at p. 4) Southern
stated that DOE should consider multifamily housing units and dwellings that
require significant venting system work
to accommodate a new furnace. (FUR:
Southern, No. 1.2.006 at pp. 227–28)
Ingersoll Rand stated that DOE should
consider landlords and tenants as
subgroups for the analysis. (FUR:
Ingersoll Rand, No. 1.3.006 at p. 15)
NPGA stated that owners of
manufactured homes should be
considered as a subgroup. (FUR: NPGA,
No. 1.3.005 at p. 4)
For the direct final rule analysis, DOE
evaluated the impacts of the considered
energy efficiency standard levels for
non-weatherized gas furnaces on lowincome consumers and senior citizens
(i.e., senior-only households). DOE did
not analyze these subgroups for mobile
home gas furnaces or oil-fired furnaces
because of the small sample sizes in the
2005 RECS database. In response to
comments, for non-weatherized gas
furnaces, DOE analyzed the impacts for
three other subgroups: (1) Multi-family
housing units; (2) new homes; and (3)
replacement applications.
DOE did not consider dwellings that
require significant venting system work
to accommodate a new furnace as a
subgroup, because there is no way to
define ‘‘significant’’ venting system
work that would not be arbitrary. DOE
did not consider landlords and tenants
as subgroups because DOE’s LCC and
payback period calculation method
implicitly assumes that either the
landlord purchases an appliance and
also pays its energy costs, or in those
cases where the tenant pays the energy
costs, the landlord purchases an
appliance and passes on the expense in
the rent. If a landlord passes on the
expense in the rent, which is the more
common situation, he or she is not a
‘‘consumer’’ in the context of DOE’s
methodology, so landlords are not a
meaningful consumer subgroup. DOE
does not consider tenants (renters) as a
consumer subgroup because: (1) DOE is
not able to evaluate the pace at which
the incremental purchase cost of a
covered product is passed on in the
rent, and (2) not all tenants pay the
energy costs for their dwelling.
DOE did not consider owners of
manufactured homes as a subgroup
because the impacts of potential
amended standards on these consumers
are addressed in the LCC and PBP
analysis of mobile home gas furnaces.
DOE did not perform a subgroup
analysis for the standby mode and off
mode efficiency levels. The standby
mode and off mode LCC analysis relied
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on the test procedure to assess energy
savings for the off mode efficiency
levels, and, thus, energy savings are not
different for population subgroups. In
addition, the analysis was done with
national average energy prices and
national average markups for residential
and commercial users, and thus, these
inputs would not vary for the
subgroups. The information sources for
the other parameters affecting LCC (e.g.,
repair and maintenance cost) also did
not differ by subgroup.
Results of the subgroup analysis are
presented in section V.B.1.b of today’s
direct final rule. For further
information, consult chapter 11 of the
direct final rule TSD, which describes
the consumer subgroup analysis and its
results.
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I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
DOE performed a manufacturer
impact analysis (MIA) to estimate the
financial impact of amended energy
conservation standards on
manufacturers of residential furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps, and to calculate the impact of
such standards on direct employment
and manufacturing capacity. The MIA
has both quantitative and qualitative
aspects. The quantitative component of
the MIA primarily relies on the
Government Regulatory Impact Model
(GRIM), an industry cash-flow model
customized for this rulemaking. The key
GRIM inputs are data on the industry
cost structure, product costs, shipments,
and assumptions about markups and
conversion expenditures. The key
output is the industry net present value
(INPV). Different sets of assumptions
(markup scenarios) will produce
different results. The qualitative
component of the MIA addresses factors
such as product characteristics, industry
and market trends, and includes an
assessment of the impacts of standards
on sub-groups of manufacturers.
Chapter 12 of the direct final rule TSD
describes the complete MIA.
DOE conducted the MIA for this
rulemaking in three phases. In Phase 1,
‘‘Industry Profile,’’ DOE prepared an
industry characterization. In Phase 2,
‘‘Industry Cash Flow,’’ DOE focused on
the financial aspects of the industry as
a whole. In this phase, DOE used the
publicly-available information gathered
in Phase 1 to prepare an industry cash
flow analysis using the GRIM model.
DOE adapted the GRIM structure
specifically to analyze the impact of
new and amended standards on
manufacturers of residential furnace and
central air conditioner and heat pump
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products. In Phase 3, ‘‘Sub-Group
Impact Analysis,’’ the Department
conducted structured, detailed
interviews with a representative crosssection of manufacturers that represent
approximately 75 percent of furnace and
central air conditioning sales. During
these interviews, DOE discussed
engineering, manufacturing,
procurement, and financial topics
specific to each company, and obtained
each manufacturer’s view of the
industry as a whole. The interviews
provided valuable information that the
Department used to evaluate the
impacts of potential amended standards
on manufacturers’ cash flows,
manufacturing capacities, and
employment levels. Each of these
phases is discussed in further detail
below.
a. Phase 1: Industry Profile
In Phase 1 of the MIA, DOE prepared
a profile of the residential furnace and
central air conditioner and heat pump
industry based on the Market and
Technology Assessment (MTA)
prepared for this rulemaking. Before
initiating detailed impact studies, DOE
collected information on the present
and past structure and market
characteristics of the industry. This
information included market share,
product shipments, markups, and cost
structure for various manufacturers. The
industry profile includes: (1) Detail on
the overall market and product
characteristics; (2) estimated
manufacturer market shares; (3)
financial parameters such as net plant,
property, and equipment (i.e., after
accounting for depreciation), SG&A
expenses, cost of goods sold, etc.; and
(4) trends in the residential furnace and
central air conditioner and heat pump
industry, including the number of firms,
technology, sourcing decisions, and
pricing.
The industry profile included a topdown cost analysis of residential
furnace and central air conditioner and
heat pump manufacturers that DOE
used to derive preliminary financial
inputs for the GRIM (e.g., revenues;
SG&A expenses; research and
development (R&D) expenses; and tax
rates). DOE also used public sources of
information to further calibrate its
initial characterization of the industry,
including company SEC 10–K filings,
Moody’s company data reports,
corporate annual reports, the U.S.
Census Bureau’s 2008 Economic
Census, and Dun & Bradstreet reports.
b. Phase 2: Industry Cash Flow Analysis
Phase 2 of the MIA focused on the
financial impacts of the potential
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amended energy conservation standards
on the industry as a whole. New or
more-stringent energy conservation
standards can affect manufacturer cash
flow in three distinct ways: (1) By
creating a need for increased
investment; (2) by raising production
costs per unit; and (3) by altering
revenue due to higher per-unit prices
and possible changes in sales volumes.
To quantify these impacts, in Phase 2,
DOE used the GRIM to perform a cashflow analysis of the residential furnace
and central air conditioner and heat
pump industry. In performing this
analysis, DOE used the financial values
determined during Phase 1, which were
updated based on industry feedback and
additional research, and the shipment
projections used in the NIA. The GRIM
modeled both impacts from energy
efficiency standards (standards based on
SEER, HSPF, and AFUE ratings) and
impacts from standby mode and off
mode standards (standards based on
standby mode and off mode wattage).
The GRIM results from the two
standards were evaluated independent
of one another.
c. Phase 3: Sub-Group Impact Analysis
In Phase 3, DOE conducted interviews
with manufacturers and refined its
preliminary cash flow analysis. Many of
the manufacturers interviewed also
participated in interviews for the
engineering analysis. As indicated
above, the MIA interviews broadened
the discussion from primarily
technology-related issues to include
finance-related topics. One key objective
for DOE was to obtain feedback from the
industry on the assumptions used in the
GRIM and to isolate key issues and
concerns. See section IV.I.3 for a
description of the key issues
manufacturers raised during the
interviews.
Using average-cost assumptions to
develop an industry cash-flow estimate
may not adequately assess differential
impacts of new or amended standards
among manufacturer sub-groups. For
example, small manufacturers, niche
players, or manufacturers exhibiting a
cost structure that largely differs from
the industry average could be more
negatively affected. Thus, during Phase
3, DOE used the results of the industry
characterization analysis in Phase 1 to
evaluate how groups of manufacturers
could be differentially affected by
potential standards, and to group
manufacturers that exhibited similar
production and cost structure
characteristics. The manufacturer
interviews provided additional,
valuable information on manufacturer
subgroups.
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DOE investigated whether small
business manufacturers should be
analyzed as a manufacturer subgroup.
During its research, DOE identified
multiple companies that manufacture
products covered by this rulemaking
and qualify as a small business under
the applicable Small Business
Administration (SBA) definition. The
SBA defines a ‘‘small business’’ as
having 750 employees or less for NAICS
333415, ‘‘Air-Conditioning and Warm
Air Heating Equipment and Commercial
and Industrial Refrigeration Equipment
Manufacturing.’’ As a result of this
inquiry, DOE decided to analyze small
business manufacturers as a separate
subgroup in this direct final rule. The
small businesses were further subdivided by product class to understand
the impacts of the rulemaking on those
entities. The small business subgroup is
discussed in chapter 12 of the direct
final rule TSD and in section VI.B.1 of
today’s notice.
2. GRIM Analysis
As discussed previously, DOE uses
the GRIM to quantify the changes in
cash flow that result in a higher or lower
industry value due to amended
standards. The GRIM uses a discounted
cash-flow analysis that incorporates
manufacturer costs, markups,
shipments, and industry financial
information as inputs. The GRIM
models changes in costs, distribution of
shipments, investments, and
manufacturer margins that could result
from amended energy conservation
standards. The GRIM spreadsheet uses
the inputs to arrive at a series of annual
cash flows, beginning in 2010 (the base
year of the analysis) and continuing to
2045 (the last year of the analysis
period). DOE calculated INPVs by
summing the stream of annual
discounted cash flows during these
periods.
The GRIM calculates cash flows using
standard accounting principles and
compares changes in INPV between the
base case and each TSL (the standards
case). The difference in INPV between
the base case and standards case
represents the financial impact of the
amended standard on manufacturers.
The GRIM results are shown in section
V.B.2. Additional details about the
GRIM can be found in chapter 12 of the
direct final rule TSD.
DOE typically presents its estimates of
industry impacts by grouping the major
product classes served by the same
manufacturers. In the residential HVAC
industry, split-system air conditioning,
split-system heat pumps, single-package
air conditioning, single-package heat
pumps, and non-weatherized gas
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furnaces make up 95 percent of total
shipments, according to the NIA
shipment model for 2010. These five
product classes are considered to be
‘‘conventional’’ products. Manufacturers
that compete in the marketplace for
conventional products generally
produce products in all five
conventional product classes.
Additionally, consumer selection of
conventional products is often
interdependent. As discussed in section
IV.G.1 of the NIA methodology, the
shipments forecasts that are an input to
the GRIM incorporate product switching
among the split-system air conditioning,
split-system heat pumps, and nonweatherized gas furnaces product
classes. To better capture the impacts of
this rulemaking on industry, DOE
aggregates results for split-system air
conditioning, split-system heat pumps,
single-package air conditioning, singlepackage heat pumps, and nonweatherized gas furnaces into a single
‘‘conventional’’ product grouping.
In section V.B.2.d pertaining to the
MIA analysis, DOE discusses impacts on
subgroups of manufacturers that
produce niche products. Niche
products, which serve much smaller
segments of the market with unique
needs, are produced by different
manufacturers and include niche
furnace products and niche central air
conditioning and heat pumps products.
Niche furnace products include
weatherized gas furnaces, oil furnaces,
and mobile home furnaces. Niche
central air conditioning and heat pump
products consist of the spaceconstrained and the small-duct, highvelocity (SDHV) product classes.
For the weatherized gas furnaces
product class and the space-constrained
product class, the current energy
efficiency standard was determined to
be equal to the max-tech efficiency level
in the engineering analysis. Based on
DOE’s screening analysis, teardown
analysis, and market research, DOE
determined it would be unable to raise
the energy efficiency standards on these
products due to the state of technology
and the design constraints inherent to
these products. Therefore, DOE
concluded that there is no need to
perform an additional analysis for these
products given that the current standard
already meets the max-tech efficiency.
For these product classes, no
manufacturer impact analysis for energy
efficiency standards was performed.
For the small-duct, high-velocity
product class, limited information was
available for this market niche. DOE had
insufficient information to build a
shipments forecast model, and thus, did
not perform a quantitative analysis
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using the GRIM for this product class.
However, DOE did conduct interviews
with manufacturers of this product class
and has performed a qualitative analysis
of the impacts on manufacturers of
SDHV products.
For consideration of standby mode
and off mode regulations, DOE modeled
the impacts of the design options for
reducing electricity usage discussed in
section IV.C.7 pertaining to the
engineering analysis. The GRIM analysis
incorporates the additional MPC cost of
standby mode and off mode features and
the resulting impacts on markups.
Due to the small cost of standby mode
and off mode components relative to the
overall cost of a furnace, central air
conditioner, or heat pump, DOE
assumes that standards regarding
standby mode and off mode features
alone will not impact product shipment
numbers. Additionally, DOE does not
believe the incremental cost of standby
mode and off mode features will have a
differentiated impact on manufacturers
of different product classes. DOE
models the impact of standby mode and
off mode for the industry as a whole.
The GRIM results for standby mode
and off mode standards include the
electric furnace product class. Based on
product catalogue information, DOE
concluded that the major manufacturers
of conventional products are also the
major manufacturers of electric
furnaces.
The space-constrained and SDHV
product classes were not analyzed in the
GRIM for energy efficiency standards.
As a result, quantitative numbers are
also not available for the GRIM
analyzing standby mode and off mode
standards. However, the standby mode
and off mode design options considered
for space-constrained and SDHV
products are identical to the design
options for split-systems air
conditioning and heat pump products.
DOE expects the standby mode and off
mode impacts on space-constrained and
SDHV products to be of the same order
of magnitude as the impacts on splitsystem air conditioning and heat pump
products.
a. GRIM Key Inputs
i. Manufacturer Production Costs
Manufacturing a higher-efficiency
product is typically more expensive
than manufacturing a baseline product
due to the use of more complex
components and higher-cost raw
materials. The changes in the
manufacturer production cost (MPC) of
the analyzed products can affect
revenues, gross margins, and cash flow
of the industry, making these product
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cost data key GRIM inputs for DOE’s
analysis.
In the MIA, DOE used the MPCs for
each considered efficiency level
calculated in the engineering analysis,
as described in section IV.C.1 pertaining
to the engineering analysis and further
detailed in chapter 5 of the direct final
rule TSD. In addition, DOE used
information from its teardown analysis,
described in section IV.C.1, to
disaggregate the MPCs into material,
labor, and overhead costs. To calculate
the MPCs for products above the
baseline, DOE added the incremental
material, labor, and overhead costs from
the engineering cost-efficiency curves to
the baseline MPCs. These cost
breakdowns and product mark-ups were
validated with manufacturers during
manufacturer interviews.
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ii. Base-Case Shipments Forecast
The GRIM estimates manufacturer
revenues based on total unit shipment
forecasts and the distribution of
shipments by product class and
efficiency level. Changes in the
efficiency mix at each potential
standard level affect manufacturer
finances. For this analysis, the GRIM
uses the NIA shipments forecasts from
2010, the base year for the MIA analysis,
to 2045, the last year of the analysis
period. In the shipments analysis, DOE
estimates the distribution of efficiencies
in the base case for all product classes.
See section IV.G.1, above, for additional
details.
iii. Shipment Forecasts
The GRIM used shipments figures
developed in the NIA for residential
furnace and central air conditioner and
heat pump products. To determine
efficiency distributions for the standards
case, DOE used a ‘‘roll-up + market
shift’’ scenario. DOE assumed that
product efficiencies in the base case that
did not meet the standard under
consideration would ‘‘roll up’’ to meet
the new standard in the standard year,
when compliance with amended
standards is required. DOE further
assumed that revised standards would
result in a market shift such that market
shares of products with efficiencies
better than the standard would
gradually increase because ‘‘marketpull’’ programs, such as ENERGY STAR,
would continue to promote efficient
appliances after amended standards are
introduced.
The shipment forecasts account for
possible product switching that may
occur among split-system air
conditioning, split-system heat pumps,
non-weatherized gas furnaces, and
electric furnaces. The product switching
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calculations incorporate considerations
of consumer climate zones, existing
equipment, equipment costs, and
installation costs. In the MIA results
discussion in section V.B.2, the
presentation of INPV and the MIA
analysis of conventional products
incorporate the impacts of product
switching. See section IV.G.1 of this
direct final rule and chapter 10 of the
direct final rule TSD for more
information on the standards-case
shipment scenario.
iv. Product and Capital Conversion
Costs
New or amended energy conservation
standards will cause manufacturers to
incur one-time conversion costs to bring
their production facilities and product
designs into compliance. DOE evaluated
the level of conversion-related capital
expenditures needed to comply with
each considered efficiency level in each
product class. For the purpose of the
MIA, DOE classified these conversion
costs into two major groups: (1) Product
conversion costs, and (2) capital
conversion costs. Product conversion
costs are one-time investments in
research, development, testing, and
marketing, focused on making product
designs comply with the new energy
conservation standard. Capital
conversion costs are one-time
investments in property, plant, and
equipment to adapt or change existing
production facilities so that new
equipment designs can be fabricated
and assembled.
DOE assessed the product conversion
costs at each considered standard level
by integrating data from multiple
sources. Those R&D expenditures, and
other components of product conversion
cost, were validated through
manufacturer interviews. DOE
considered feedback from multiple
manufacturers at each level.
Manufacturer numbers were averaged
using market share weighting of each
company to provide a number that
better reflects the industry as a whole.
DOE also evaluated the level of
capital conversion expenditures
manufacturers would incur to comply
with energy conservation standards.
DOE used the manufacturer interviews
to gather data on the level of capital
investment required at each possible
efficiency level. Manufacturer values
were aggregated and scaled using
market share weighting to better reflect
the industry. Additionally, DOE
validated manufacturer comments
through estimates of capital expenditure
requirements derived from the product
teardown analysis and engineering
model described in section IV.C.1.
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In general, DOE assumes that all
conversion-related investments occur
between the announcement year and the
standards compliance year. For
evaluation of the TSL corresponding to
the consensus agreement, DOE used the
accelerated timeframes to reflect the
compliance dates recommended in the
agreement. The GRIM models all
furnace conversion costs occurring
during the period between 2011 and
2013 for the TSL corresponding to the
consensus agreement. Similarly, DOE
assumed all central air conditioner and
heat pump conversion costs would
occur between 2011 and 2015 for the
TSL corresponding to the consensus
agreement.
For standby mode and off mode, DOE
did not receive quantitative feedback
during MIA interviews on the
conversion costs associated with
standby mode and off mode features.
Based on the design options from the
engineering analysis, DOE assumed that
the standby mode and off mode capital
conversion costs would be small relative
to the capital conversion cost for
meeting energy efficiency standards.
However, DOE did incorporate product
conversion costs for R&D, testing, and
revision of marketing materials. The
product conversion costs were based on
product testing cost quotations and on
market information about the number of
platforms and product families for each
manufacturer.
The investment figures used in the
GRIM can be found in section V.B.2.a of
today’s notice. For additional
information on the estimated product
conversion and capital conversion costs,
see chapter 12 of the TSD.
b. Markup Scenarios
As discussed above, manufacturer
selling prices (MSPs) include direct
manufacturing production costs (i.e.,
labor, material, and overhead estimated
in DOE’s MPCs) and all non-production
costs (i.e., SG&A, R&D, and interest),
along with profit. To calculate the MSPs
in the GRIM, DOE applied markups to
the MPCs estimated in the engineering
analysis for each product class and
efficiency level. Modifying these
markups in the standards case yields
different sets of impacts on
manufacturers. For the MIA, DOE
modeled three standards-case markup
scenarios to represent the uncertainty
regarding the potential impacts on
prices and profitability for
manufacturers following the
implementation of amended energy
conservation standards: (1) A tiered
markup scenario, (2) a preservation of
earnings before interest and taxes
(EBIT), and (3) a preservation of gross
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margin percentage. These scenarios lead
to different markups values which,
when applied to the inputted MPCs,
result in varying revenue and cash flow
impacts. The first and second scenarios
were determined to best represent the
impacts of potential energy efficiency
standards on industry mark ups. The
second and third scenarios were used to
model potential standby mode and off
mode standards, because pricing tiers
would not likely be impacted by
standby mode and off mode standards.
Under the ‘‘preservation of gross
margin percentage’’ scenario, DOE
applied a single uniform ‘‘gross margin
percentage’’ markup across all efficiency
levels. As production costs increase
with efficiency, this scenario implies
that the absolute dollar markup will
increase as well. DOE assumed the nonproduction cost markup—which
includes SG&A expenses, R&D
expenses, interest, and profit—stays
constant at the base-case percentage
even as the standards-case efficiency
increases. This markup is consistent
with the one DOE assumed in the base
case for the GRIM. Manufacturers noted
in interviews that it is optimistic to
assume that as their production costs
increase in response to an amended
energy conservation standard, they
would be able to maintain the same
gross margin percentage markup.
Therefore, DOE assumed that this
scenario represents a high bound to
industry profitability under an energy
conservation standard.
The tiered markup scenario models
the situation in which manufacturers set
markups based on three tiers of
products. The tiers described by
manufacturers in MIA interviews were
defined as ‘‘good, better, best,’’ or
‘‘value, standard, premium.’’ The highvolume ‘‘value’’ product lines typically
have fewer features, lower efficiency,
and lower markups, while ‘‘premium’’
product lines typically have more
features, higher efficiency, and higher
markups. In the standards case, the
tiered markups scenario considers the
situation in which the breadth of a
manufacturer’s portfolio of products
shrinks and amended standards
‘‘demote’’ higher-tier products to lower
tiers. As a result, higher-efficiency
products that previously commanded
‘‘standard’’ and ‘‘premium’’ mark-ups
are assigned ‘‘value’’ and ‘‘standard’’
markups, respectively.
In the preservation of earnings before
interest and taxes (EBIT) scenario, the
manufacturer markups are set so that
EBIT one year after the compliance date
of the amended energy conservation
standards is the same as in the base
case. Under this scenario, as the cost of
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production and the cost of sales go up,
manufacturers are generally required to
reduce their markups to a level that
maintains base-case operating profit.
The implicit assumption behind this
markup scenario is that the industry can
only maintain its operating profit in
absolute dollars after the amended
standards. Operating margin in
percentage terms is squeezed (reduced)
between the base case and standards
case.
During the March 2010 public
meeting for residential furnaces and the
May 2010 public meeting for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and in the
written comments for those public
meetings, there were no comments on
the assumptions of the preliminary
MIA.
3. Manufacturer Interviews
As part of the MIA interviews, DOE
discussed potential impacts of standards
with five of the seven leading
manufacturers of residential furnaces,
central air conditioners, and heat
pumps.80 DOE also interviewed six
niche product manufacturers.
In the interviews, DOE asked
manufacturers to describe their major
concerns about this rulemaking. The
following sections discuss
manufacturers’ concerns about the most
significant issues they identified.
a. Consensus Agreement
All manufacturers interviewed either
strongly supported or were amenable to
the consensus agreement that was
recommended and signed by a number
of manufacturers, advocacy
organizations, and trade groups. Most
interviewees were signatories and urged
the Department to act as quickly as
possible to adopt the consensus
agreement. Manufacturers indicated that
the consensus agreement provides
regulatory certainty, manageable
conversion costs, and accelerated
compliance dates that provide energy
savings earlier than would otherwise be
achieved. Due to the tight timelines
outlined in the agreement,
manufacturers stated their desire for
DOE to adopt the agreement as soon as
possible in order to have sufficient time
to meet the agreement’s energy
conservation standards and associated
compliance dates.
b. Potential for Significant Changes to
Manufacturing Facilities
During interviews, several
manufacturers indicated that central air
conditioning and heat pump conversion
80 The remaining two major manufacturers were
approached, but they declined to be interviewed.
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costs are not linear, but would step up
dramatically at various efficiency levels.
In general, manufacturers were
concerned that a national baseline
energy conservation standard above 14
SEER for split-system air conditioners
and split-system heat pumps would
require extensive and costly product
line redesigns. At various higher
efficiency levels, system designs would
have to incorporate additional or more
complex technologies, including twostage compressors, ECM fan motors, and
larger heater exchangers. Therefore, to
reach higher levels, units would have to
increase in size, necessitating larger
cabinet sizes and the purchase of new
equipment and tooling. Several large
manufacturers indicated that offshore
production or completely new
production facilities would be
considered above 14 SEER due to the
scope of changes required to meet an
amended standard. Manufacturer
estimates for the total investment
required to meet national standards in
the 14.5 to 16 SEER range varied widely,
often depending on the current state of
each manufacturer’s production lines
and whether a completely new
production facility was required.
c. Increase in Product Repair and
Migration to Alternative Products
Several manufacturers stated that the
higher cost of more-efficient systems
resulting from amended energy
conservation standards would need to
be passed on to consumers, absorbed by
manufacturers, or some combination of
both. If manufacturers were to attempt
to pass on higher costs, the industry is
concerned higher prices would result in
consumers pursuing lower-cost, lessefficient alternatives. In addition,
manufacturers believe that consumers,
facing higher first costs, would be more
likely to repair older, less-efficient
heating and cooling systems rather than
replace those units with new, moreefficient models. Similarly,
manufacturers expressed concern that
consumers would be more likely to
switch to lower up-front cost, lowerefficiency technologies such as room air
conditioners and electric space heaters.
Manufacturers agreed that these
alternatives would reduce energy
savings and reduce energy conserved.
As evidence, manufacturers cited
market trends following the 2006
compliance date of the 2004 central air
conditioners and heat pump energy
conservation rulemaking. 69 FR 50997
(Aug. 14, 2004). Since 2006,
manufacturers have noted a decline in
central air conditioner and heat pump
sales coupled with an increase in room
air conditioner sales and an increase in
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orders for repair components. In
general, the manufacturers are
concerned that the decline in shipments
from 2006 to 2010 will continue, and
that a revised energy conservation
standard will exacerbate the decline in
unitary air conditioner shipments.
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d. HFC Phase-Out Legislation
Manufacturers expressed strong
concerns about legislation proposed in
Congress that would phase out HFC
refrigerants, including R–410A and
R–134a. Any phase-out would require
extensive redesign of all central air
conditioners and heat pump products to
make use of an alternative refrigerant.
Manufacturers asserted that there is no
clear replacement for HFC refrigerants
today. Without a clear replacement, the
manufacturers stated that any phase-out
would create a period of uncertainty as
the industry identifies suitable
alternatives and then redesigns products
around the replacement. It is unclear
what efficiency levels could be achieved
at reasonable cost without HFC
refrigerants. Manufacturers observed
that past phase-outs generally have led
to more-expensive and less-efficient
refrigerant replacements. Additionally,
manufacturers stated that alternative
refrigerants may require substantially
larger systems to achieve the same
levels of performance.
e. Physical Constraints
Multiple manufacturers expressed
concern that an increase in appliance
efficiency standards would leave older
homes, and multi-family homes in
particular, with few cost-effective
options for replacing their cooling
systems. As the efficiency of air
conditioning increases, the physical
sizes of the units also increase.
Manufacturers are concerned because
central air conditioner and heat pump
units are already so large that they can
be difficult to fit into some end-user
homes. Attic entryways, basement
doors, and condensing unit pads all
present physical constraints when
replacing an air conditioner with a
larger, more-efficient system.
Multifamily homes are particularly
restricted due to the limited space in
utility closets and due to the limited
options for renovation. These physical
constraints lead to higher installation
costs, which may encourage customers
to repair existing systems rather than
replace them.
f. Supply Chain Constraints
Some manufacturers expressed
concern about the impact of morestringent standards on their supply
chain. Changes in energy conservation
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standards could affect the competitive
positioning and dominance of
component suppliers. One manufacturer
cited the example of the 2001 central air
conditioner rulemaking (66 FR 7170
(Jan. 22, 2001)), after which one of two
critical compressor suppliers nearly
went bankrupt (because the change in
standards led most manufacturers to
choose design options that favored the
technology of one supplier over the
other). According to the manufacturer,
having the industry rely on a single
supplier for critical components, even
just a few, puts the entire industry at
risk.
Additionally, manufacturers stated
that more-stringent energy conservation
standards would increase the demand
for some key components over current
levels. Given that most manufacturers
rely on the same set of suppliers,
amended standards could result in long
lead times for obtaining critical
components, such as high-efficiency
compressors, ECM motors, modulating
gas valves, advanced control systems,
and new production tooling.
J. Employment Impact Analysis
DOE considers employment impacts
in the domestic economy as one factor
in selecting a standard. Employment
impacts consist of both direct and
indirect impacts. Direct employment
impacts are any changes in the number
of employees of manufacturers of the
appliance products which are the
subject of this rulemaking, their
suppliers, and related service firms.
Indirect employment impacts are
changes in national employment that
occur due to the shift in expenditures
and capital investment caused by the
purchase and operation of moreefficient appliances. The MIA addresses
the direct employment impacts that
concern manufacturers of furnaces,
central air conditioners, and heat
pumps. The employment impact
analysis addresses the indirect
employment impacts.
Indirect employment impacts from
standards consist of the net jobs created
or eliminated in the national economy,
other than in the manufacturing sector
being regulated, due to: (1) Reduced
spending by end users on energy; (2)
reduced spending on new energy supply
by the utility industry; (3) increased
spending on new products to which the
new standards apply; and (4) the effects
of those three factors throughout the
economy. DOE expects the net monetary
savings from amended energy
conservation standards to be redirected
to other forms of economic activity.
DOE also expects these shifts in
spending and economic activity to affect
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the demand for labor in the short term,
as explained below.
One method for assessing the possible
effects on the demand for labor of such
shifts in economic activity is to compare
sectoral employment statistics
developed by the Labor Department’s
BLS.81 The BLS regularly publishes its
estimates of the number of jobs per
million dollars of economic activity in
different sectors of the economy, as well
as the jobs created elsewhere in the
economy by this same economic
activity. Data from BLS indicate that
expenditures in the utility sector
generally create fewer jobs (both directly
and indirectly) than expenditures in
other sectors of the economy. There are
many reasons for these differences,
including wage differences and the fact
that the utility sector is more capitalintensive and less labor-intensive than
other sectors.82
Energy conservation standards have
the effect of reducing consumer utility
bills. Because reduced consumer
expenditures for energy likely lead to
increased expenditures in other sectors
of the economy, the general effect of
efficiency standards is to shift economic
activity from a less labor-intensive
sector (i.e., the utility sector) to more
labor-intensive sectors (e.g., the retail
and service sectors). Thus, based on the
BLS data alone, the Department believes
net national employment will increase
due to shifts in economic activity
resulting from amended standards for
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps.
For the standards considered in
today’s direct final rule, DOE estimated
indirect national employment impacts
using an input/output model of the U.S.
economy called Impact of Sector Energy
Technologies (ImSET). ImSET is a
spreadsheet model of the U.S. economy
that focuses on 187 sectors most
relevant to industrial, commercial, and
residential building energy use.83
ImSET is a special purpose version of
the ‘‘U.S. Benchmark National Input81 Data on industry employment, hours, labor
compensation, value of production, and the implicit
price deflator for output for these industries are
available upon request by calling the Division of
Industry Productivity Studies (202–691–5618) or by
sending a request by e-mail to dipsweb@bls.gov.
(Available at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/
prin1.nro.htm.)
82 See Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Multipliers: A User Handbook for the Regional
Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II), U.S.
Department of Commerce (1992).
83 M.J. Scott, O.V. Livingston, J.M. Roop, R.W.
Schultz, and P.J. Balducci, ImSET 3.1: Impact of
Sector Energy Technologies; Model Description and
User’s Guide (2009) (Available at: https://
www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/
technical_reports/PNNL-18412.pdf).
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Output’’ (I–O) model,84 which has been
designed to estimate the national
employment and income effects of
energy-saving technologies. The ImSET
software includes a computer-based I–O
model with structural coefficients to
characterize economic flows among the
187 sectors. ImSET’s national economic
I–O structure is based on a 2002 U.S.
benchmark table, specially aggregated to
the 187 sectors. DOE estimated changes
in expenditures using the NIA
spreadsheet. Using ImSET, DOE then
estimated the net national, indirect
employment impacts by sector of
potential amended efficiency standards
for furnaces, central air conditioners,
and heat pumps.
No comments were received on the
preliminary TSD for central air
conditioners and heat pumps or the
furnaces RAP concerning the
employment impacts analysis. For more
details on the employment impact
analysis, see chapter 13 of the direct
final rule TSD.
K. Utility Impact Analysis
The utility impact analysis estimates
several important effects on the utility
industry that would result from the
adoption of new or amended energy
conservation standards. For the direct
final rule analysis, DOE used the
NEMS–BT model to generate forecasts
of electricity and natural gas
consumption, electricity generation by
plant type, and electric generating
capacity by plant type, that would result
from each considered TSL. DOE
obtained the energy savings inputs
associated with efficiency
improvements to the subject products
from the NIA. DOE conducts the utility
impact analysis as a scenario that
departs from the latest AEO Reference
case. For this direct final rule, the
estimated impacts of amended energy
conservation standards are the
differences between values forecasted
by NEMS–BT and the values in the
AEO2010 Reference case (which does
not contemplate amended standards).
As part of the utility impact analysis,
DOE used NEMS–BT to assess the
impacts on natural gas prices of the
reduced demand for natural gas
projected to result from the considered
standards. DOE also used NEMS–BT to
assess the impacts on electricity prices
of the reduced need for new electric
power plants and infrastructure
projected to result from the considered
standards. In NEMS–BT, changes in
84 R.L. Stewart, J.B. Stone, and M.L. Streitwieser.
U.S. Benchmark Input-Output Accounts, 2002.
Survey of Current Business, October 2007.
(Available at https://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2007/
10%20October/1007_benchmark_io.pdf).
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power generation infrastructure affect
utility revenue, which in turn affects
electricity prices. DOE estimated the
change in electricity prices projected to
result over time from each considered
TSL. The benefits associated with the
impacts of the standards in this rule on
energy prices are discussed in section
IV.G.5.
For more details on the utility impact
analysis, see chapter 14 of the direct
final rule TSD.
L. Environmental Assessment
Pursuant to the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and
the requirements of 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI), DOE has prepared
an environmental assessment (EA) of
the impacts of the potential standards
for residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps in this
rule, which it has included as chapter
15 of the direct final rule TSD.
In the EA, DOE estimated the
reduction in power sector emissions of
CO2, NOX, and Hg using the NEMS–BT
computer model. In the EA, NEMS–BT
is run similarly to the AEO NEMS,
except that furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump energy use
is reduced by the amount of energy
saved (by fuel type) due to each TSL.
The inputs of national energy savings
come from the NIA spreadsheet model,
while the output is the forecasted
physical emissions. The net benefit of
each TSL in this rule is the difference
between the forecasted emissions
estimated by NEMS–BT at each TSL and
the AEO 2010 Reference Case. NEMS–
BT tracks CO2 emissions using a
detailed module that provides results
with broad coverage of all sectors and
inclusion of interactive effects. Because
the on-site operation of non-electric
heating products requires use of fossil
fuels and results in emissions of CO2,
NOX, and sulfur dioxide (SO2), DOE also
accounted for the reduction in these
emissions due to potential amended
standards at the sites where these
appliances are used. For today’s direct
final rule, DOE used NEMS–BT based
on AEO 2010. For the final rule, DOE
intends to revise the emissions analysis
using the most current version of
NEMS–BT.
DOE determined that SO2 emissions
from affected fossil-fuel-fired
combustion devices (also known as
Electric Generating Units (EGUs)) are
subject to nationwide and regional
emissions cap-and-trade programs that
create uncertainty about the potential
amended standards’ impact on SO2
emissions. Title IV of the Clean Air Act,
42 U.S.C. 7401–7671q, sets an annual
emissions cap on SO2 for all affected
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EGUs in the 48 contiguous States and
the District of Columbia (DC). SO2
emissions from 28 eastern States and DC
are also limited under the Clean Air
Interstate Rule (CAIR, 70 FR 25162 (May
12, 2005)), which created an allowancebased trading program. Although CAIR
has been remanded to the EPA by the
U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia (DC Circuit), see North
Carolina v. EPA, 550 F.3d 1176 (DC Cir.
2008), it remains in effect temporarily,
consistent with the D.C. Circuit’s earlier
opinion in North Carolina v. EPA, 531
F.3d 896 (DC Cir. 2008). On July 6,
2010, EPA issued the Transport Rule
proposal, a replacement for CAIR,
which would limit emissions from
EGUs in 32 States, potentially through
the interstate trading of allowances,
among other options. 75 FR 45210 (Aug.
2, 2010).
The attainment of the emissions caps
is flexible among EGUs and is enforced
through the use of emissions allowances
and tradable permits. Under existing
EPA regulations, and under the
Transport Rule if it is finalized, any
excess SO2 emission allowances
resulting from the lower electricity
demand caused by the imposition of an
efficiency standard could be used to
permit offsetting increases in SO2
emissions by any regulated EGU.
However, if the amended standard
resulted in a permanent increase in the
quantity of unused emission
allowances, there would be an overall
reduction in SO2 emissions from the
standards. While there remains some
uncertainty about the ultimate effects of
efficiency standards on SO2 emissions
covered by the existing cap and trade
system, the NEMS–BT modeling system
that DOE uses to forecast emissions
reductions currently indicates that no
physical reductions in power sector
emissions would occur for SO2.
A cap on NOX emissions, affecting
electric generating units in the CAIR
region, means that energy conservation
standards may have little or no physical
effect on NOX emissions in the 28
eastern States and the D.C. covered by
CAIR, or any States covered by the
proposed Transport Rule if the
Transport Rule is finalized. The
standards would, however, reduce NOX
emissions in those 22 States not affected
by the CAIR. As a result, DOE used
NEMS–BT to forecast emission
reductions from the standards
considered for today’s direct final rule.
Similar to emissions of SO2 and NOX,
future emissions of Hg would have been
subject to emissions caps. In May 2005,
EPA issued the Clean Air Mercury Rule
(CAMR). 70 FR 28606 (May 18, 2005).
CAMR would have permanently capped
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emissions of mercury for new and
existing coal-fired power plants in all
States by 2010. However, on February 8,
2008, the DC Circuit issued its decision
in New Jersey v. Environmental
Protection Agency, 517 F.3d 574 (DC
Cir. 2008), in which it vacated CAMR.
EPA has decided to develop emissions
standards for power plants under
Section 112 of the Clean Air Act,
consistent with the DC Circuit’s opinion
on the CAMR. See https://www.epa.gov/
air/mercuryrule/pdfs/certpetition_
withdrawal.pdf. Pending EPA’s
forthcoming revisions to the rule, DOE
is excluding CAMR from its
environmental assessment. In the
absence of CAMR, a DOE standard
would likely reduce Hg emissions, and
DOE is using NEMS–BT to estimate
these emission reductions. However,
DOE continues to review the impact of
rules that reduce energy consumption
on Hg emissions, and may revise its
assessment of Hg emission reductions in
future rulemakings.
The operation of non-electric heating
products requires use of fossil fuels and
results in emissions of CO2, NOX, and
SO2 at the sites where these appliances
are used. NEMS–BT provides no means
for estimating such emissions. DOE
calculated the effect of potential
standards in this rule on the above site
emissions based on emissions factors
that are described in chapter 15 of the
direct final rule TSD.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP, EEI
stated that DOE should include the
environmental impacts of furnace
production, especially if higher
standards involve more equipment
being manufactured in and transported
from other countries. (FUR: EEI, No.
1.3.015 at p. 6) APPA made a similar
point. (FUR: APPA, No. 1.3.011 at p. 5)
In response, DOE notes that the inputs
to the EA for national energy savings
come from the NIA. In the NIA, DOE
only accounts for primary energy
savings associated with considered
standards. In so doing, EPCA directs
DOE to consider (when determining
whether a standard is economically
justified) ‘‘the total projected amount of
energy * * * savings likely to result
directly from the imposition of the
standard.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III)) DOE interprets the
phrase ‘‘directly from the imposition of
the standard’’ to include energy used in
the generation, transmission, and
distribution of fuels used by appliances.
In addition, DOE is evaluating the fullfuel-cycle measure, which includes the
energy consumed in extracting,
processing, and transporting primary
fuels (see section IV.G.3). Both DOE’s
current accounting of primary energy
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savings and the full-fuel-cycle measure
are directly linked to the energy used by
appliances. In contrast, energy used in
manufacturing and transporting
appliances is a step removed from the
energy used by appliances. Thus, DOE
did not consider such energy use in
either the NIA or the EA.
EEI commented that DOE’s
environmental assessment should
consider the standards’ effect on
emissions associated with the
extraction, refining, and transport of oil
and natural gas. (FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015
at p. 7) As noted in chapter 15 of the
TSD, DOE developed only qualitative
estimates of effects on upstream fuelcycle emissions because NEMS–BT does
a thorough accounting only of emissions
at the power plant due to downstream
energy consumption. In other words,
NEMS–BT does not account for
upstream emissions. Therefore, the
environmental assessment for this rule
did not estimate effects on upstream
emissions associated with oil and
natural gas. As discussed in section
IV.G.3, however, DOE is in the process
of developing an approach that will
allow it to estimate full-fuel-cycle
energy use associated with products
covered by energy conservation
standards.
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and
Other Emissions Impacts
As part of the development of this
rule, DOE considered the estimated
monetary benefits likely to result from
the reduced emissions of CO2 and NOX
that are expected to result from each of
the TSLs considered. In order to make
this calculation similar to the
calculation of the NPV of consumer
benefit, DOE considered the reduced
emissions expected to result over the
lifetime of products shipped in the
forecast period for each TSL. This
section summarizes the basis for the
monetary values used for each of these
emissions and presents the benefits
estimates considered.
For today’s direct final rule, DOE
relied on a set of values for the social
cost of carbon (SCC) that was developed
an interagency process. A summary of
the basis for these values is provided
below, and a more detailed description
of the methodologies used is provided
as in chapter 16 of the direct final rule
TSD.
1. Social Cost of Carbon
Under section 1(b) of Executive Order
12866, ‘‘Regulatory Planning and
Review,’’ 58 FR 51735 (Oct. 4, 1993),
agencies must, to the extent permitted
by law, ‘‘assess both the costs and the
benefits of the intended regulation and,
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37495
recognizing that some costs and benefits
are difficult to quantify, propose or
adopt a regulation only upon a reasoned
determination that the benefits of the
intended regulation justify its costs.’’
The purpose of the SCC estimates
presented here is to allow agencies to
incorporate the monetized social
benefits of reducing CO2 emissions into
cost-benefit analyses of regulatory
actions that have small, or ‘‘marginal,’’
impacts on cumulative global emissions.
The estimates are presented with an
acknowledgement of the many
uncertainties involved and with a clear
understanding that they should be
updated over time to reflect increasing
knowledge of the science and
economics of climate impacts.
As part of the interagency process that
developed these SCC estimates,
technical experts from numerous
agencies met on a regular basis to
consider public comments, explore the
technical literature in relevant fields,
and discuss key model inputs and
assumptions. The main objective of this
process was to develop a range of SCC
values using a defensible set of input
assumptions grounded in the existing
scientific and economic literatures. In
this way, key uncertainties and model
differences transparently and
consistently inform the range of SCC
estimates used in the rulemaking
process.
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The SCC is an estimate of the
monetized damages associated with an
incremental increase in carbon
emissions in a given year. It is intended
to include (but is not limited to) changes
in net agricultural productivity, human
health, property damages from
increased flood risk, and the value of
ecosystem services. Estimates of the
SCC are provided in dollars per metric
ton of carbon dioxide.
When attempting to assess the
incremental economic impacts of carbon
dioxide emissions, the analyst faces a
number of serious challenges. A recent
report from the National Research
Council 85 points out that any
assessment will suffer from uncertainty,
speculation, and lack of information
about: (1) Future emissions of
greenhouse gases; (2) the effects of past
and future emissions on the climate
system; (3) the impact of changes in
climate on the physical and biological
environment; and (4) the translation of
these environmental impacts into
85 National Research Council, Hidden Costs of
Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy
Production and Use, National Academies Press:
Washington, DC (2009).
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economic damages. As a result, any
effort to quantify and monetize the
harms associated with climate change
will raise serious questions of science,
economics, and ethics and should be
viewed as provisional.
Despite the serious limits of both
quantification and monetization, SCC
estimates can be useful in estimating the
social benefits of reducing carbon
dioxide emissions. Consistent with the
directive in Executive Order 12866
quoted above, the purpose of the SCC
estimates presented here is to make it
possible for agencies to incorporate the
social benefits from reducing carbon
dioxide emissions into cost-benefit
analyses of regulatory actions that have
small, or ‘‘marginal,’’ impacts on
cumulative global emissions. Most
Federal regulatory actions can be
expected to have marginal impacts on
global emissions.
For such policies, the agency can
estimate the benefits from reduced (or
costs from increased) emissions in any
future year by multiplying the change in
emissions in that year by the SCC value
appropriate for that year. The net
present value of the benefits can then be
calculated by multiplying each of these
future benefits by an appropriate
discount factor and summing across all
affected years. This approach assumes
that the marginal damages from
increased emissions are constant for
small departures from the baseline
emissions path, an approximation that
is reasonable for policies that have
effects on emissions that are small
relative to cumulative global carbon
dioxide emissions. For policies that
have a large (non-marginal) impact on
global cumulative emissions, there is a
separate question of whether the SCC is
an appropriate tool for calculating the
benefits of reduced emissions. DOE does
not attempt to answer that question
here.
At the time of the preparation of this
notice, the most recent interagency
estimates of the potential global benefits
resulting from reduced CO2 emissions in
2010, expressed in 2009$, were $4.9,
$22.1, $36.3, and $67.1 per metric ton
avoided. For emission reductions that
occur in later years, these values grow
in real terms over time. Additionally,
the interagency group determined that a
range of values from 7 percent to 23
percent should be used to adjust the
global SCC to calculate domestic
effects,86 although preference is given to
86 It is recognized that this calculation for
domestic values is approximate, provisional, and
highly speculative. There is no a priori reason why
domestic benefits should be a constant fraction of
net global damages over time.
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consideration of the global benefits of
reducing CO2 emissions.
It is important to emphasize that the
interagency process is committed to
updating these estimates as the science
and economic understanding of climate
change and its impacts on society
improves over time. Specifically, the
interagency group has set a preliminary
goal of revisiting the SCC values within
two years or at such time as
substantially updated models become
available, and to continue to support
research in this area. In the meantime,
the interagency group will continue to
explore the issues raised by this analysis
and consider public comments as part of
the ongoing interagency process.
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in
Past Regulatory Analyses
To date, economic analyses for
Federal regulations have used a wide
range of values to estimate the benefits
associated with reducing carbon dioxide
emissions. In the final model year 2011
CAFE rule, the Department of
Transportation (DOT) used both a
‘‘domestic’’ SCC value of $2 per ton of
CO2 and a ‘‘global’’ SCC value of $33 per
ton of CO2 for 2007 emission reductions
(in 2007 dollars), increasing both values
at 2.4 percent per year.87 See Average
Fuel Economy Standards Passenger
Cars and Light Trucks Model Year 2011,
74 FR 14196 (March 30, 2009) (Final
Rule); Final Environmental Impact
Statement Corporate Average Fuel
Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and
Light Trucks, Model Years 2011–2015 at
3–90 (Oct. 2008) (Available at: https://
www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy). It also
included a sensitivity analysis at $80
per ton of CO2. A domestic SCC value
is meant to reflect the value of damages
in the United States resulting from a
unit change in carbon dioxide
emissions, while a global SCC value is
meant to reflect the value of damages
worldwide.
A 2008 regulation proposed by DOT
assumed a domestic SCC value of $7 per
ton of CO2 (in 2006 dollars) for 2011
emission reductions (with a range of
$0–$14 for sensitivity analysis), also
increasing at 2.4 percent per year. See
Average Fuel Economy Standards,
Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Model
Years 2011–2015, 73 FR 24352 (May 2,
2008) (Proposed Rule); Draft
Environmental Impact Statement
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards, Passenger Cars and Light
Trucks, Model Years 2011–2015 at 3–58
(June 2008) (Available at: https://
www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy). A
87 Throughout this section, the term ‘‘tons of CO ’’
2
refers to metric tons.
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regulation for packaged terminal air
conditioners and packaged terminal
heat pumps finalized by DOE in October
of 2008 used a domestic SCC range of
$0 to $20 per ton CO2 for 2007 emission
reductions (in 2007 dollars). 73 FR
58772, 58814 (Oct. 7, 2008). In addition,
EPA’s 2008 Advance Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking for Greenhouse Gases
identified what it described as ‘‘very
preliminary’’ SCC estimates subject to
revision. See Regulating Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Under the Clean Air Act,
73 FR 44354 (July 30, 2008) (Advance
Notice of Proposed Rulemaking). EPA’s
global mean values were $68 and $40
per ton CO2 for discount rates of
approximately 2 percent and 3 percent,
respectively (in 2006 dollars for 2007
emissions). See id. at 44416.
In 2009, an interagency process was
initiated to offer a preliminary
assessment of how best to quantify the
benefits from reducing carbon dioxide
emissions. To ensure consistency in
how benefits are evaluated across
agencies, the Administration sought to
develop a transparent and defensible
method, specifically designed for the
rulemaking process, to quantify avoided
climate change damages from reduced
CO2 emissions. The interagency group
did not undertake any original analysis.
Instead, it combined SCC estimates from
the existing literature to use as interim
values until a more comprehensive
analysis could be conducted. The
outcome of the preliminary assessment
by the interagency group was a set of
five interim values: global SCC
estimates for 2007 (in 2006 dollars) of
$55, $33, $19, $10, and $5 per ton of
CO2.
These interim values represent the
first sustained interagency effort within
the U.S. government to develop an SCC
for use in regulatory analysis. The
results of this preliminary effort were
presented in several proposed and final
rules and were offered for public
comment in connection with proposed
rules, including the joint EPA–DOT fuel
economy and CO2 tailpipe emission
proposed rules. See CAFE Rule for
Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Draft
EIS and Final EIS, cited above.
c. Current Approach and Key
Assumptions
Since the release of the interim
values, the interagency group
reconvened on a regular basis to
generate improved SCC estimates,
which were considered in the
evaluation of this rule. Specifically, the
group considered public comments and
further explored the technical literature
in relevant fields. The interagency group
relied on three integrated assessment
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models (IAMs) commonly used to
estimate the SCC: the FUND, DICE, and
PAGE models.88 These models are
frequently cited in the peer-reviewed
literature and were used in the last
assessment of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Each model
was given equal weight in the SCC
values that were developed.
Each model takes a slightly different
approach to model how changes in
emissions result in changes in economic
damages. A key objective of the
interagency process was to enable a
consistent exploration of the three
models while respecting the different
approaches to quantifying damages
taken by the key modelers in the field.
An extensive review of the literature
was conducted to select three sets of
input parameters for these models: (1)
Climate sensitivity; (2) socio-economic
and emissions trajectories; and (3)
discount rates. A probability
distribution for climate sensitivity was
specified as an input into all three
models. In addition, the interagency
group used a range of scenarios for the
socio-economic parameters and a range
of values for the discount rate. All other
model features were left unchanged,
relying on the model developers’ best
estimates and judgments.
The interagency group selected four
SCC values for use in regulatory
analyses. Three values are based on the
average SCC from three integrated
assessment models, at discount rates of
2.5, 3, and 5 percent. The fourth value,
which represents the 95th-percentile
SCC estimate across all three models at
a 3-percent discount rate, is included to
represent higher-than-expected impacts
from temperature change further out in
the tails of the SCC distribution. For
emissions (or emission reductions) that
occur in later years, these values grow
in real terms over time, as depicted in
Table IV.24.
TABLE IV.24—SOCIAL COST OF CO2, 2010–2050
[In 2007 dollars per metric ton]
Discount rate
5% Avg
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2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
It is important to recognize that a
number of key uncertainties remain, and
that current SCC estimates should be
treated as provisional and revisable
since they will evolve with improved
scientific and economic understanding.
The interagency group also recognizes
that the existing models are imperfect
and incomplete. The National Research
Council report mentioned above points
out that there is tension between the
goal of producing quantified estimates
of the economic damages from an
incremental ton of carbon and the limits
of existing efforts to model these effects.
There are a number of concerns and
problems that should be addressed by
the research community, including
research programs housed in many of
the agencies participating in the
interagency process to estimate the SCC.
The U.S. Government intends to
periodically review and reconsider
estimates of the SCC used for costbenefit analyses to reflect increasing
knowledge of the science and
economics of climate impacts, as well as
improvements in modeling. In this
context, statements recognizing the
limitations of the analysis and calling
for further research take on exceptional
significance. The interagency group
offers the new SCC values with all due
humility about the uncertainties
embedded in them and with a sincere
promise to continue work to improve
them.
In summary, in considering the
potential global benefits resulting from
reduced CO2 emissions, DOE used the
most recent values identified by the
interagency process, adjusted to 2009$
using the GDP price deflator values for
2008 and 2009. For each of the four
cases specified, the values used for
emissions in 2010 were $4.9, $22.1,
$36.3, and $67.1 per metric ton avoided
(values expressed in 2009$). To
monetize the CO2 emissions reductions
expected to result from amended
standards for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps, DOE
used the values identified in Table A1
in the ‘‘Social Cost of Carbon for
Regulatory Impact Analysis Under
Executive Order 12866,’’ which is
reprinted as appendix 16A of the direct
final rule TSD, appropriately adjusted to
88 The models are described in appendix 16–A of
the direct final rule TSD.
89 Table A1 in appendix 16–A presents SCC
values through 2050. For DOE’s calculation, it
derived values after 2050 using the 3-percent per
year escalation rate used by the interagency group.
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3% Avg
4.7
5.7
6.8
8.2
9.7
11.2
12.7
14.2
15.7
21.4
23.8
26.3
29.6
32.8
36.0
39.2
42.1
44.9
2.5% Avg
3% 95th
35.1
38.4
41.7
45.9
50.0
54.2
58.4
61.7
65.0
64.9
72.8
80.7
90.4
100.0
109.7
119.3
127.8
136.2
2009$.89 To calculate a present value of
the stream of monetary values, DOE
discounted the values in each of the
four cases using the specific discount
rate that had been used to obtain the
SCC values in each case.
2. Valuation of Other Emissions
Reductions
DOE investigated the potential
monetary benefit of reduced NOX
emissions from the TSLs it considered.
As noted above, new or amended energy
conservation standards would reduce
NOX emissions in those 22 States that
are not affected by the CAIR, in addition
to the reduction in site NOX emissions
nationwide. DOE estimated the
monetized value of NOX emissions
reductions resulting from each of the
TSLs considered for today’s direct final
rule based on environmental damage
estimates from the literature. Available
estimates suggest a very wide range of
monetary values, ranging from $370 per
ton to $3,800 per ton of NOX from
stationary sources, measured in 2001$
(equivalent to a range of $447 to $4,591
per ton in 2009$).90 In accordance with
90 For additional information, refer to U.S. Office
of Management and Budget, Office of Information
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srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
OMB guidance, DOE conducted two
calculations of the monetary benefits
derived using each of the economic
values used for NOX, one using a real
discount rate of 3 percent and another
using a real discount rate of 7 percent.91
DOE is aware of multiple agency
efforts to determine the appropriate
range of values used in evaluating the
potential economic benefits of reduced
Hg emissions. DOE has decided to await
further guidance regarding consistent
valuation and reporting of Hg emissions
before it once again monetizes Hg
emissions reductions in its rulemakings.
Commenting on the central air
conditioners and heat pumps
preliminary TSD, Southern stated that
the incremental climate change from a
rulemaking is too uncertain to be
included in the decision-making for
energy conservation standard levels,
and the benefits of reduced carbon
emissions should not be included.
(CAC: SCS, No. 73 at p. 2) Commenting
on the furnaces RAP, several parties
provided comments regarding the
economic valuation of CO2 emissions.
EEI objected to using the global value
for the social cost of carbon because the
rest of DOE’s analyses use domestic
values. (FUR: EEI, No. 1.3.015 at pp. 8–
9) APPA recommended that DOE use a
set of hyperbolic discount rates for the
value of CO2. It also stated that the wide
range of values for the SCC could
adversely impact the calculation of
benefits from amended energy
conservation standards, and that DOE
should consider the value of carbon
reduction separately from the NIA
analysis. (FUR: APPA, No. 1.3.011 at p.
5)
DOE acknowledges that the economic
value of future CO2 emissions
reductions is uncertain, and for this
reason, it uses a wide range of potential
values, and a range of discount rates, as
described above. DOE further notes that
the estimated monetary benefits of
reduced CO2 emissions are only one
factor among many that DOE considers
in evaluating the economic justification
of potential standard levels.
As to whether DOE should consider
the value of carbon reduction separately
from the NIA, the NIA assesses the
national energy savings and the national
net present value of total consumer
costs and savings expected to result
from standards at specific efficiency
and Regulatory Affairs, ‘‘2006 Report to Congress on
the Costs and Benefits of Federal Regulations and
Unfunded Mandates on State, Local, and Tribal
Entities’’ (Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/
sites/default/files/omb/assets/omb/inforeg/2006_
cb/2006_cb_final_report.pdf).
91 OMB, Circular A–4: Regulatory Analysis (Sept.
17, 2003).
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levels. Thus, DOE does not aggregate the
estimated economic benefits of avoided
CO2 emissions (and other emissions)
into the NIA. However, it does believe
that the NPV of the monetized benefits
associated with emissions reductions
can be viewed as a complement to the
NPV of the consumer savings expected
to result from new or amended energy
conservation standards. Therefore, in
section V of this notice, DOE presents
the NPV values that result from adding
the estimates of the potential economic
benefits resulting from reduced CO2 and
NOX emissions in each of four valuation
scenarios to the NPV of consumer
savings calculated for each TSL
considered in this rulemaking.
Commenting on the furnaces RAP, EEI
stated that utilities have embedded the
cost of complying with existing
environmental legislation in the price
for electricity and that DOE must not
double-count the benefits of reduced
emissions related to standards. (FUR:
EEI, No. 1.3.015 at p. 6) In response,
DOE calculates emissions reductions
associated with potential standards
relative to an AEO Reference case that
includes the costs of complying with
existing environmental legislation. The
AEO Reference case still has emissions,
of course, which are reduced in the case
of standards. The reduction in
emissions avoids impacts on human
health or other damages, and DOE’s
monetization of emissions reductions
seeks to quantify the value of those
avoided damages.
V. Analytical Results
The following section addresses the
results from DOE’s analyses with
respect to potential energy conservation
standards for the products examined as
part of this rulemaking. It addresses the
trial standard levels examined by DOE,
the projected impacts of each of these
levels if adopted as energy conservation
standards for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps, and the
standards levels that DOE is adopting in
today’s direct final rule. Additional
details regarding the analyses conducted
by DOE are contained in the publiclyavailable direct final rule TSD
supporting this notice.
A. Trial Standard Levels
DOE analyzed the benefits and
burdens of a number of TSLs for the
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps that are the subject of this
rule. A description of each TSL DOE
analyzed is provided below. DOE
attempted to limit the number of TSLs
considered for the direct final rule by
excluding efficiency levels that do not
exhibit significantly different economic
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Fmt 4701
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and/or engineering characteristics from
the efficiency levels already selected as
TSLs. While DOE only presents the
results for those efficiency levels in TSL
combinations in today’s direct final
rule, DOE presents the results for all
efficiency levels that it analyzed in the
direct final rule TSD.
1. TSLs for Energy Efficiency 92
Table V.1 presents the TSLs and the
corresponding product class efficiency
levels that DOE considered for furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
energy efficiency. Eight product classes
are specified in Table V.1: (1) Splitsystem central air conditioners (SAC);
(2) split-system heat pumps (SHP); (3)
single-package central air conditioners
(PAC); (4) single-package heat pumps
(PHP); (5) SDHV systems; (6) nonweatherized gas furnaces (NWGF); (7)
oil furnaces (OF); and (8) mobile home
gas furnaces (MHF).
TSL 7 consists of the max-tech
efficiency levels. For split-system
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
max-tech levels vary by capacity
(tonnage) and, in the case of air
conditioners, the type of unit (i.e., coilonly or blower-coil). Specifically, for
split-system central air conditioners, the
max-tech level specified in Table V.1 of
22 SEER pertains only to 3-ton blowercoil units. The max-tech levels for the
other tonnages and unit types are: 24.5
SEER for 2-ton, blower-coil; 18 SEER for
5-ton, blower-coil and 2-ton, coil-only;
17 SEER for 3-ton, coil-only; and 16
SEER for 5-ton, coil-only. For splitsystem heat pumps, the max-tech level
specified in Table V.1 of 21 SEER/9.9
HSPF pertains only to 3-ton units. The
max-tech levels for the other tonnages
are: 22 SEER/9.9 HSPF for 2-ton; and 17
SEER/9.0 HSPF for 5-ton.
TSL 6 consists of a cooling efficiency
level of 15 SEER for all central air
conditioner and heat pump product
classes with the exception of specifying
a cooling efficiency level of 14 SEER for
split-system central air conditioners in
the ‘‘rest of country’’ region (i.e., the
North) and SDHV systems. For furnaces,
TSL 6 consists of efficiency levels for
each product class which are one level
below the max-tech level.
TSL 5 consists of cooling efficiency
levels for each central air conditioner
and heat pump product class which are
one level below the efficiencies in TSL
6. This corresponds to a cooling
efficiency level of 14 SEER for all
92 In the context of presenting TSLs and results
for each of them, DOE uses the term ‘‘energy
efficiency’’ to refer to potential standards on SEER,
HSPF, and AFUE throughout section V of this
notice. TSLs for standby mode and off mode are
addressed separately in the next section.
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(i.e., by 3 years for furnaces and 1.5
years for central air conditioners and
heat pumps) and requirements for a
second metric (EER) applicable to splitsystem air conditioners and packaged
air conditioners in the hot-dry region.
For SDHV systems, TSL 4 consists of the
baseline efficiency level.
TSL 3 consists of the same efficiency
levels as specified in TSL 4, except with
a lead time for compliance of five years
after the final rule publication, and no
EER requirements for split system air
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conditioners and packaged air
conditioners in the hot-dry region. TSL
2 consists of the efficiency levels within
each region that correspond to those
products which currently have the
largest market share. TSL 1 refers to a
single national standard and consists of
the efficiency levels in each product
class with the largest market share. For
SDHV systems, TSLs 1, 2, and 3 consist
of the baseline efficiency level.
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
product classes with the exception of
specifying a cooling efficiency at the
baseline level (13 SEER) for split-system
central air conditioners in the ‘‘rest of
country’’ region (i.e., the North) and
SDHV systems. For furnaces, TSL 5
consists of the same efficiency levels as
TSL 6 (i.e., each product class has an
efficiency level which is one level
below the max-tech level).
TSL 4 consists of the efficiency levels
included in the consensus agreement,
including accelerated compliance dates
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BILLING CODE 6450–01–C
2. TSLs for Standby Mode and Off Mode
Power
Table V.2 presents the TSLs and the
corresponding product class efficiency
levels (expressed in watts) that DOE
considered for furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump standby
mode and off mode power consumption.
For the central air conditioner product
classes, DOE considered three efficiency
levels, while for the heat pump and
furnace product classes, two efficiency
levels were considered.
TSL 3 consists of the max-tech
efficiency levels. For the central air
conditioner product classes, the maxtech level is efficiency level 3, which
specifies a maximum off mode power
consumption of 29 watts. (For splitsystem central air conditioners, only
blower-coil systems equipped with
ECMs would be affected; the other
system types are already below this
level.) For the heat pump and furnace
product classes, the max-tech level is
efficiency level 2, which specifies a
maximum standby mode and off mode
power consumption of 9 watts for gas
and electric furnaces and 10 watts for
oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode
power consumption of 32 watts for heat
pumps.
TSL 2 represents the efficiency level
from each product class that is just
below the max-tech efficiency level.
TSL 2 consists of efficiency level 2 for
the central air conditioner product
classes, which specifies a maximum off
mode power consumption of 30 watts.
(For split-system central air
conditioners, only blower-coil systems
equipped with ECMs would be affected;
the other system types are already below
this level.) For the heat pump and
furnace product classes, TSL 2 consists
of efficiency level 1, which specifies a
maximum standby mode and off mode
power consumption of 10 watts for gas
and electric furnaces and 11 watts for
oil furnaces, and a maximum off mode
power consumption of 33 watts for heat
pumps.
TSL 1 consists of efficiency level 1 for
all product classes. TSL 1 consists of
efficiency level 1 for the central air
conditioner product classes, which
specifies a maximum off mode power
consumption of 36 watts. For the heat
pump and furnace product classes, it
consists of efficiency level 1, which
specifies a maximum standby mode and
off mode power consumption of 10
watts for gas and electric furnaces and
11 watts for oil furnaces, and a
maximum off mode power consumption
of 33 watts for heat pumps. Because the
heat pump and furnace product classes
have only two considered efficiency
levels, TSL 1 for these classes is no
different than TSL 2.
Coil-only systems at efficiency level 1
would comply with off mode power
requirements set at either efficiency
levels 2 or 3 based on the blower-coil
market. Of further note, in the case of
efficiency level 3, only the fraction of
the blower-coil market equipped with
ECMs is impacted. Blower-coil systems
with PSC motors and coil-only systems
equipped with either ECMs or PSC
motors that comply with the off mode
power requirements in efficiency level 2
already meet the requirements in
efficiency level 3.
TABLE V.2—TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, HEAT PUMPS, AND FURNACES (STANDBY MODE
AND OFF MODE POWER)
TSL
SAC
SHP
PAC
PHP
SDHV
SCAC*
SCHP*
NWGF
OF
MHF
EF
Efficiency Level (Watts)
3 ..........................................................................
2 ..........................................................................
1 ..........................................................................
29
30
36
32
33
33
29
30
36
32
33
33
29
30
36
29
30
36
32
33
33
9
10
10
10
11
11
9
10
10
9
10
10
* SCAC = Space-Constrained Air Conditioner; SCHP = Space-Constrained Heat Pump; and EF = electric furnace.
B. Economic Justification and Energy
Savings
1. Economic Impacts on Individual
Consumers
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Consumers affected by new or
amended standards usually experience
higher purchase prices and lower
operating costs. DOE evaluates these
impacts on individual consumers by
calculating changes in life-cycle costs
(LCC) and the payback period (PBP)
associated with potential standard
levels. Using the approach described in
section IV.F, DOE calculated the LCC
impacts and PBPs for the efficiency
levels considered in this rulemaking.
For each product class, DOE’s analysis
provided several outputs for each
efficiency level. For energy efficiency,
these results are reported for central air
conditioners and heat pumps in Table
V.3 through Table V.8, and for furnaces
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in Table V.9 through Table V.11. For
standby mode and off mode, these
results are reported for central air
conditioners and heat pumps in Table
V.12, and for furnaces in Table V.13.
Each table includes the average total
LCC and the average LCC savings, as
well as the fraction of product
consumers for which the LCC will either
decrease (net benefit), or increase (net
cost), or exhibit no change (no impact)
relative to the product purchased in the
base case. The last output in the tables
is the median PBP for the consumer
purchasing a design that complies with
each TSL.
The results for each TSL are relative
to the energy efficiency distribution in
the base case (no amended standards).
The average LCC savings and payback
period presented in the tables were
calculated only for those consumers that
would be affected by a standard at a
specific efficiency level. At some lower
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Sfmt 4700
efficiency levels, no consumers would
be impacted by a potential standard,
because the products they would
purchase in the base case are as
efficient, or more efficient, than the
specific efficiency level. In the cases
where no consumers would be
impacted, calculation of LCC savings or
payback period is not applicable.
DOE based the LCC and PBP analyses
on energy consumption under
conditions of actual product use,
whereas it based the rebuttable
presumption PBP test on consumption
under conditions prescribed by the DOE
test procedure, as required by EPCA. (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii))
In its regional analysis, DOE used the
same technology designs to describe the
baseline and other considered efficiency
levels in each region. However, the total
installed cost varies among regions
because the installation cost varies by
region (due to labor cost differences),
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and in addition, there is some variation
in the equipment price due to
differences in the overall markup
(including sales tax) among regions.
(i) Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
TABLE V.3—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM AIR CONDITIONERS (COIL-ONLY)
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Consumers that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
11
100
75
0
14
n/a
9.1
0
7
26
73
90
100
75
27
16
0
0
18
46
12
10
n/a
5.6
7.2
34.4
46.6
0
10
37
75
91
100
75
27
16
0
0
14
36
9
9
n/a
8.0
10.3
49.0
71.2
0
17
56
99
100
75
27
0
0
8
16
1
n/a
23.1
33.1
100.0
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
2,026
2,074
4,872
4,770
6,898
6,844
n/a
55
Hot-Humid
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
18* ...................
1,834
1,880
1,934
2,515
3,365
5,649
5,514
5,393
5,188
4,923
7,484
7,393
7,326
7,702
8,288
n/a
86
93
(303)
(797)
Hot-Dry
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
18* ...................
2,582
2,642
2,713
3,510
4,673
6,134
5,977
5,837
5,598
5,288
8,716
8,619
8,550
9,108
9,960
n/a
104
107
(468)
(1,182)
North (Rest of Country)
3,4,5 .................
2 .......................
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
18* ...................
2,127
2,175
2,231
3,753
3,476
3,434
3,401
3,360
5,603
5,609
5,633
7,113
n/a
(8)
(26)
(1,343)
* Varies by size of equipment: 2-ton units are 18 SEER; 3-ton units are 17 SEER; and 5-ton units are 16 SEER.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.4—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM AIR CONDITIONERS (BLOWER-COIL)
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
% of Consumers that experience
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
9
100
82
0
9
n/a
11.4
0
6
21
25
70
100
82
45
37
1
0
12
34
39
29
n/a
7.2
7.9
8.4
20.8
0
9
28
33
76
100
82
45
37
1
0
10
27
31
23
n/a
9.5
10.7
10.8
30.6
0
14
43
100
82
45
0
4
12
n/a
26.1
27.5
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
3,015
3,078
4,869
4,762
7,884
7,840
n/a
46
Hot-Humid
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
24.5* ................
2,774
2,833
2,894
3,015
4,069
5,640
5,500
5,371
5,139
4,298
8,413
8,333
8,265
8,154
8,367
n/a
77
89
177
(130)
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Hot-Dry
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
24.5* ................
3,825
3,903
3,984
4,142
5,559
6,171
6,009
5,860
5,592
4,606
9,995
9,912
9,844
9,734
10,166
n/a
90
101
196
(311)
North (Rest of Country)
3, 4, 5 ...............
2 .......................
6 .......................
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14 .....................
19:54 Jun 24, 2011
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3,110
3,172
3,236
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3,422
3,381
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6,594
6,617
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n/a
(18)
(30)
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TABLE V.4—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM AIR CONDITIONERS (BLOWER-COIL)—Continued
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
7 .......................
Installed
cost
24.5* ................
Discounted
operating
cost
4,410
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
3,193
% of Consumers that experience
Average
savings
LCC
7,603
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
(903)
No impact
Net benefit
1
3
96
Median
100.0
*Varies by size of equipment: 2-ton units are 24.5 SEER; 3-ton units are 22 SEER; and 5-ton units are 18 SEER.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.5—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM HEAT PUMPS
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Consumers that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
5
100
86
0
9
n/a
6.6
n/a
82
102
137
103
0
4
17
29
60
100
86
45
23
0
0
10
38
48
40
n/a
6.1
6.0
7.2
12.6
n/a
148
175
274
477
0
4
15
25
51
100
86
45
23
0
0
11
40
52
49
n/a
4.5
4.8
5.4
9.4
0
9
35
58
87
100
86
45
23
0
0
5
20
19
13
n/a
13.2
13.3
20.1
32.7
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
2,934
2,999
6,882
6,743
9,816
9,742
n/a
71
Hot-Humid
..........................
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
22* ...................
2,804
2,867
2,932
3,114
3,983
6,943
6,791
6,644
6,383
5,513
9,747
9,658
9,576
9,496
9,496
Hot-Dry
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
22 * ...................
3,808
3,890
3,973
4,212
5,387
9,221
8,987
8,763
8,348
6,894
13,029
12,877
12,735
12,560
12,280
North (Rest of Country)
2 .......................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
13.5 ..................
14 .....................
15 .....................
22 * ...................
3,065
3,129
3,193
3,380
4,262
5,927
5,861
5,792
5,693
5,362
8,993
8,990
8,986
9,073
9,624
n/a
5
4
(89)
(604)
* Varies by size of equipment: 2-ton units are 22 SEER; 3-ton units are 21 SEER; and 5-ton units are 18 SEER.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.6—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SINGLE-PACKAGE AIR CONDITIONERS
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
% of Consumers that experience
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
100
17
1
0
0
33
27
16
Median
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1, 2 ...................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline 13 ......
14 .....................
15 .....................
16.5 ..................
3,040
3,223
3,492
4,064
5,303
5,077
4,908
4,760
8,343
8,301
8,400
8,825
n/a
37
(68)
(492)
0
50
72
84
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
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24.2
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TABLE V.7—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SINGLE-PACKAGE HEAT PUMPS
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Consumers that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
100
36
2
0
0
35
35
21
Median
Nation
1, 2 ...................
3, 4, 5 ...............
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline ...........
14 .....................
15 .....................
16.5 ..................
3,623
3,828
4,163
4,866
7,834
7,463
7,182
6,856
11,457
11,291
11,345
11,722
n/a
104
15
(363)
0
29
63
79
n/a
8.4
13.6
20.7
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.8—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR SMALL-DIAMETER HIGH VELOCITY (SDHV) AIR CONDITIONERS
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Consumers that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
Period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
100
0
n/a
n/a
(14)
(25)
0
68
67
100
0
0
0
32
33
n/a
17.8
17.3
n/a
(65)
(106)
0
74
74
100
0
0
0
26
26
n/a
26.1
23.3
0
95
92
100
0
0
0
5
8
n/a
74.3
74.7
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline 13 ......
4,915
4,853
9,768
n/a
Hot-Humid
2–5 ...................
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline 13 ......
14 .....................
14.5 ..................
4,610
4,883
5,029
5,643
5,385
5,250
10,253
10,268
10,279
Hot-Dry
2–5 ...................
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline 13 ......
14 .....................
14.5 ..................
6,302
6,665
6,859
6,105
5,807
5,654
12,407
12,472
12,513
North (Rest of Country)
2–5 ...................
6 .......................
7 .......................
Baseline 13 ......
14 .....................
14.5 ..................
4,919
5,198
5,347
3,447
3,370
3,313
8,367
8,568
8,660
n/a
(202)
(294)
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
(ii) Furnaces
TABLE V.9—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Installed
cost
Discounted
operating
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
Average
savings
2009$
LCC
Payback
Period
(years)
% of Households that experience
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
100
0
n/a
n/a
(181)
0
72.3
100
0.2
0
27.4
n/a
28.9
155
215
323
198
10.0
10.9
22.8
58.7
71.4
56.5
22.9
0.6
18.6
32.6
54.3
40.7
10.1
7.7
9.4
17.1
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline 80% ..
1,786
9,551
11,337
n/a
South (Rest of Country)
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
2–6 ...................
7 .......................
Baseline 80% ..
98% .................
1,614
2,661
6,566
5,624
8,180
8,286
North
3,4 ....................
2 .......................
5,6 ....................
7 .......................
90%
92%
95%
98%
.................
.................
.................
.................
2,474
2,536
2,685
2,943
10,409
10,206
9,916
9,784
12,883
12,742
12,601
12,727
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
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TABLE V.10—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR MOBILE HOME GAS FURNACES
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
SEER
Discounted
operating
cost
Installed
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Households that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
Period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
100
0
n/a
n/a
391
0
51.0
100
3.8
0
45.2
n/a
13.0
n/a
419
585
0
43.6
46.2
100
9.7
7.7
0
46.7
46.1
n/a
10.7
11.5
Nation
1 .......................
Baseline 80% ..
1,432
11,749
13,181
n/a
South (Rest of Country)
2–6 ...................
7 .......................
Baseline 80% ..
96% .................
1,340
2,415
11,453
9,780
12,793
12,194
North
2 .......................
3,4 ....................
5–7 ...................
Baseline 80% ..
90% .................
96% .................
1,488
2,112
2,611
13,060
11,974
11,301
14,548
14,086
13,912
TABLE V.11—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR OIL-FIRED FURNACES
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
AFUE
Discounted
operating
cost
Installed
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
% of Households that experience
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
100
58.3
33.0
0.9
0
31.8
32.4
48.1
Median
Nation
1, 2 ....................
3, 4 ....................
5, 6 ....................
7 ........................
Baseline 82% ...
83% ..................
85% ..................
97% ..................
3,008
3,157
3,622
4,810
(iii) Results for Standby Mode and Off
Mode
30,287
29,946
29,287
27,809
33,295
33,103
32,909
32,619
n/a
15
(18)
272
0
9.9
34.6
51.0
n/a
1.0
19.8
18.2
mode and off mode power efficiency
levels considered for central air
conditioners/heat pumps and furnaces,
respectively.
Table V.12 and Table V.13 present the
LCC and PBP results for the standby
TABLE V.12—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF
MODE POWER
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
Discounted
operating
cost
Installed
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
Average
savings
LCC
Payback
period
(years)
% of Households that experience
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
Median
100
94
91
91
0
6
6
6
n/a
1
6
7
0
0
100
94
0
6
n/a
1
0
0
19
100
67
57
0
33
24
n/a
4
5
0
0
100
94
0
6
n/a
1
Split-System Air Conditioners (Blower-Coil)
1 ........................
2 ........................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
3 ......................
17
27
23
23
105
96
93
92
122
114
115
116
n/a
84
40
35
0
0
3
3
Split-System Air Conditioners (Coil-Only)
1, 2, 3 ...............
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
1
1
27
18
27
19
n/a
84
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Split-System Heat Pumps
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
19
23
26
31
21
21
50
44
47
n/a
9
(1)
Single-Package Air Conditioners
1 ........................
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1 ......................
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TABLE V.12—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF
MODE POWER—Continued
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
2 ........................
3 ........................
Discounted
operating
cost
Installed
cost
2 ......................
3 ......................
23
23
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
93
92
% of Households that experience
Average
savings
LCC
115
116
Payback
period
(years)
Net cost
No impact
Net benefit
3
3
91
91
6
6
6
7
0
0
19
100
66
57
0
34
24
n/a
4
5
0
0
3
3
100
94
91
91
0
6
6
6
n/a
1
7
7
0
0
3
3
100
94
91
91
0
6
6
6
n/a
1
6
7
0
0
19
100
67
58
0
33
23
n/a
4
5
41
36
Median
Single-Package Heat Pumps
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
20
24
27
31
21
21
51
45
49
n/a
9
(1)
Small-Duct High-Velocity Air Conditioners
1 ........................
2 ........................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
3 ......................
18
18
24
24
107
98
94
94
124
116
117
118
n/a
84
37
32
Space-Constrained Air Conditioners
1 ........................
2 ........................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
3 ......................
17
17
23
23
107
98
94
94
123
115
117
117
n/a
84
42
37
Space-Constrained Heat Pumps
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
19
23
26
31
21
21
50
44
47
n/a
9
(1)
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.13.—LCC AND PBP RESULTS FOR FURNACE STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER
Life-Cycle cost (2009$)
Trial standard
level
Efficiency level
Discounted
operating
cost
Installed
cost
Life-Cycle cost savings (2009$)
LCC
Average
savings
% of Households that experience
Net cost
Payback
period
(years)
No impact
Net benefit
Median
0
9.2
16.8
100
72.4
72.4
0
18.4
10.8
n/a
10.7
16.1
0
5.7
7.7
100
90.6
90.6
0
3.8
1.8
n/a
11.9
17.9
0
1.4
3.8
100
90.6
90.6
0
8.0
5.7
n/a
7.9
11.9
0
4.3
6.9
100
89.9
89.9
0
5.1
2.5
n/a
10.3
15.5
Non-weatherized Gas Furnaces
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
0
3
8
133
128
125
133
132
133
n/a
2
(0)
Mobile Home Furnaces
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
0
1
4
103
102
101
103
103
104
n/a
(0)
(1)
Oil-fired Furnaces
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
0
1
3
180
178
177
180
179
179
n/a
1
1
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Electric Furnaces
1, 2 ...................
3 ........................
Baseline ..........
1 ......................
2 ......................
0
1
3
111
110
109
111
111
111
n/a
0
(1)
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
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b. Consumer Subgroup Analysis 93
(i) Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
As described in section IV.H, for
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
DOE determined the impact of the
considered energy efficiency TSLs on
low-income households and senior-only
households. For low-income and senior-
and blower-coil air conditioners,
respectively. The analysis for lowincome and senior-only households did
not show substantially different impacts
for these subgroups in comparison with
the general population. See chapter 11
of the direct final rule TSD for further
details.
only households, the sample sizes from
2005 RECS were very small (i.e., less
than 1 percent of the entire sample) at
the regional level for central air
conditioners and even at the national
level for heat pumps, so DOE only
performed the subgroup analysis at the
national level for air conditioners.
Table V.14 and Table V.15 present
key results for split-system coil-only
TABLE V.14.—SPLIT-SYSTEM AIR CONDITIONERS (COIL-ONLY): COMPARISON OF IMPACTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS
AND ALL HOUSEHOLDS, NATION
LCC Savings
(2009$)
Efficiency
level SEER
TSL
Senior
1, 2 .....................................................
3, 4, 5 .................................................
6 .........................................................
7 .........................................................
13.5
13
14
* 18
Low income
21
0
9
(1,212)
Median payback period
Years
All
33
0
24
(1,150)
Senior
55
0
51
(1,046)
13
n/a
18
100+
Low income
All
12
n/a
17
100+
9
n/a
12
100+
*Varies by size of equipment: 2-ton units are 18 SEER; 3-ton units are 17 SEER; and 5-ton units are 16 SEER.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.15.—SPLIT-SYSTEM AIR CONDITIONERS (BLOWER-COIL): COMPARISON OF IMPACTS FOR CONSUMER SUBGROUPS
AND ALL HOUSEHOLDS, NATION
Efficiency
level
SEER
TSL
1, 2 .....................................................
3, 4, 5 .................................................
6 .........................................................
7 .........................................................
LCC savings
(2009$)
Senior
13.5
13
14
* 24.5
Low income
11
0
7
(696)
Median payback period
Years
All
25
0
22
(630)
Senior
46
0
49
(421)
Low income
15
n/a
17
68
15
n/a
16
62
All
11
n/a
13
41
* Varies by size of equipment: 2-ton units are 24.5 SEER; 3-ton units are 22 SEER; and 5-ton units are 18 SEER.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
As described in section IV.H, for
furnaces, DOE evaluated the impacts of
the considered energy efficiency
standard levels on low-income
consumers and senior citizens (i.e.,
senior-only households). In addition,
DOE analyzed the impacts for three
other subgroups: (1) Multi-family
housing units; (2) new homes; and (3)
replacement applications. DOE only
presents the results for the Northern
region in this section because, with the
exception of TSL 7, there are no
consumers impacted by national
standards at the considered TSLs. At
TSL 7, the impacts of national standards
on the considered subgroups are
approximately the same as the impacts
of the standard for the Northern region.
Table V.16 compares the impacts of
the TSLs for the Northern region for
non-weatherized gas furnaces for lowincome, senior-only, and multi-family
households with those for all
households. The senior and low-income
households show somewhat higher LCC
savings from more-efficient furnaces
than the general population. In contrast,
the multi-family households show lower
LCC savings due to generally higher
installation costs and lower heating
energy use.
Table V.17 compares the impacts of
the TSLs for the Northern region for
non-weatherized gas furnaces for new
home and replacement subgroups with
those for all households. The
households in new homes show
significantly higher LCC savings
because their average installation costs
are lower, while the households in
replacement applications show lower,
but still positive, LCC savings compared
to the general population. The latter
result is primarily due to the high
installation costs in some replacement
applications. See chapter 11 of the
direct final rule TSD for further details.
93 As described in section IV.H, DOE did not
perform a subgroup analysis for the standby mode
and off mode efficiency levels. The standby mode
and off mode analysis relied on the test procedure
to assess energy savings for the considered standby
mode and off mode efficiency levels. Because the
analysis used the same test procedure parameters
for all sample households, the energy savings is the
same among the consumer subgroups.
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TABLE V.16—NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES: COMPARISON OF IMPACTS FOR SENIOR-ONLY, LOW-INCOME, AND
MULTI-FAMILY CONSUMER SUBGROUPS AND ALL HOUSEHOLDS (NORTH)
TSL
Efficiency
level AFUE
(percent)
2, 4 .........
3 .............
5, 6 .........
7 .............
LCC savings
(2009$)
Senior
90
92
95
98
Low income
201
273
410
307
Median payback period
years
Multi-family
175
242
367
229
All
63
104
176
(26)
Senior
155
215
323
198
Low income
Multi-family
9.4
7.2
8.5
16.5
13.9
9.8
11.3
23.2
8.4
6.6
8.3
14.8
All
10.1
7.7
9.4
17.1
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.17—NON-WEATHERIZED GAS FURNACES: COMPARISON OF IMPACTS FOR REPLACEMENT AND NEW HOME
CONSUMER SUBGROUPS AND ALL HOUSEHOLDS (NORTH)
Efficiency
level AFUE
(percent)
TSL
2, 4 ...........................................................
3 ...............................................................
5, 6 ...........................................................
7 ...............................................................
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
As discussed above, EPCA provides a
rebuttable presumption that an energy
conservation standard is economically
justified if the increased purchase cost
for a product that meets the standard is
less than three times the value of the
first-year energy (and, as applicable,
water) savings resulting from the
amended standard. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii)) In calculating a
rebuttable presumption payback period
for the considered standard levels, DOE
used discrete values based on the
applicable DOE test procedures rather
than distributions for input values, and
it based the energy use calculation on
the DOE test procedures for furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat
pumps, as required by statute. Id. As a
result, DOE calculated a single
rebuttable presumption payback value,
and not a distribution of payback
periods, for each considered efficiency
level.
For central air conditioner and heat
pump energy efficiency, only singlepackage heat pumps at the 13.5 SEER
level meet the less-than-three-year
criteria. Rebuttable paybacks calculated
for standby mode and off mode TSL 1
for the split system, single-package,
small-duct high-velocity, and spaceconstrained air conditioners also meet
the less-than-three-year criteria. None of
the furnace energy efficiency levels
meet the less-than-three-year criteria.
The rebuttable presumption payback
values for each considered efficiency
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92
95
98
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LCC savings
(2009$)
New home
90
151
262
158
Median payback period
years
343
404
502
315
level and product class are presented in
chapter 8 of the direct final rule TSD.
While DOE examined the rebuttable
presumption criterion, it considered
whether the standard levels considered
for today’s direct final rule are
economically justified through a more
detailed analysis of the economic
impacts of these levels, including those
to the consumer, manufacturer, Nation,
and environment, as required under 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i). The results of
this analysis serve as the basis for DOE
to definitively evaluate the economic
justification for a potential standard
level (thereby supporting or rebutting
the results of any preliminary
determination of economic
justification).
2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
DOE performed a manufacturer
impact analysis (MIA) to estimate the
impact of amended energy conservation
standards on manufacturers of
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps. The
section below describes the expected
impacts on manufacturers at each
considered energy efficiency TSL (trial
standard levels based on SEER, HSPF,
and AFUE ratings) and each considered
standby mode and off mode TSL (trial
standard levels based on standby mode
and off mode wattage). Chapter 12 of the
TSD explains the analysis in further
detail. A summary of the energy
efficiency TSLs can be found in Table
V.1, and a summary of standby mode
and off mode TSLs can be found in
Table V.2.
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Replacement
All
155
215
323
198
12.9
9.0
9.7
16.9
New home
2.5
5.1
8.8
17.9
All
10.1
7.7
9.4
17.1
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
Table V.18 through Table V.22 depict
the financial impacts on manufacturers
and the conversion costs DOE estimates
manufacturers could incur at each TSL.
The financial impacts on manufacturers
are represented by changes in industry
net present value (INPV). DOE presents
the results by grouping product classes
that are commonly produced by the
same manufacturers.
Results for the energy efficiency
standards for furnaces and central air
conditioners and heat pumps are
grouped as conventional products and
niche products. These product
groupings were analyzed under two
markup scenarios: (1) The preservation
of earnings before income and taxes
(EBIT) scenario; and (2) the tiered
markup scenario. As discussed in
section IV.I.1 of the Methodology and
Discussion section of this document,
DOE considered the preservation of
EBIT scenario to model manufacturer
concerns about the inability to maintain
their margins as manufacturing
production costs increase to reach morestringent efficiency levels. In this
scenario, while manufacturers make the
necessary investments required to
convert their facilities to produce
amended standards-compliant
equipment, operating profit does not
change in absolute dollars and decreases
as a percentage of revenue.
DOE also considered the tiered
markup scenario. The tiered markup
scenario models the situation in which
manufacturers maintain, when possible,
three tiers of product markups. The tiers
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and off mode components relative to the
overall cost of furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps, DOE has
concluded that standby mode and off
mode features would not have a
differentiated impact on different
manufacturers or different product
classes. The impacts of standby mode
and off mode features were analyzed for
two markup scenarios: (1) A
preservation of gross margin percentage
scenario; and (2) a preservation of EBIT
scenario. The preservation of gross
margin percentage scenario assumes
that manufacturers will maintain a
constant gross margin percentage even
as product costs increase in the
standards case. This scenario represents
an upper bound to manufacturer
profitability after energy conservation
standards are amended. In contrast, the
preservation of EBIT scenario assumes
manufacturers will not be able to
maintain the base case gross margin
level. Rather, as production costs go up,
manufacturers will only be able to
maintain the same operating profit—in
absolute dollars—reducing gross margin
as a percentage of revenue. In other
words, as products get more expensive
to produce, manufacturers are not able
to make as much profit per unit on a
percentage basis.
described by manufacturers in MIA
interviews were defined as ‘‘good,
better, best’’ or ‘‘value, standard,
premium.’’ In the standards case, the
tiered markups scenario considers the
situation in which the breadth of a
manufacturer’s portfolio of products
shrinks and amended standards
effectively ‘‘demote’’ higher-tier
products to lower tiers. As a result,
higher-efficiency products that
previously commanded ‘‘standard’’ and
‘‘premium’’ mark-ups are assigned
‘‘value’’ and ‘‘standard’’ markups,
respectively. Typically, a significant
fraction of the market will seek the
lowest-cost unit available for purchase,
particularly in the new construction
market. Manufacturers expect this
phenomenon, in the standards case, to
drive price competition at the new
minimum efficiency and foster efforts to
convert what was previously a ‘‘better’’
product into the new baseline ‘‘good’’
product. This scenario, therefore,
reflects one of the industry’s key
concerns regarding this effect of product
commoditization at higher efficiency
levels.
Standby mode and off mode standards
results are presented for the industry as
a whole, without groupings. Due to the
small incremental cost of standby mode
Each of the modeled scenarios results
in a unique set of cash flows and
corresponding industry value at each
TSL. In the following discussion, the
INPV results refer to the difference in
industry value between the base case
and each standards case that result from
the sum of discounted cash flows from
the base year 2010 through 2045, the
end of the analysis period. To provide
perspective on the short-run cash flow
impact, DOE includes in the discussion
of the results a comparison of free cash
flow between the base case and the
standards case at each TSL in the year
before amended standards take effect.
(i) Cash-Flow Analysis Results for
Conventional Products
Table V.18 and Table V.19 show the
MIA results for each TSL using the
markup scenarios described above for
conventional residential furnace, central
air conditioner, and heat pump
products. This ‘‘conventional products’’
grouping includes the following product
classes: (1) Split-system air
conditioning; (2) split-system heat
pumps; (3) single-package air
conditioning; (4) single-package heat
pumps; and (5) non-weatherized gas
furnaces.
TABLE V.18—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS UNDER THE PRESERVATION OF EBIT
SCENARIO
Units
INPV ......................
Change in INPV ....
Product Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion
Costs.
Total Investment Required.
Base
case
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009$ millions ..
2009$ millions ..
(%) ....................
2009$ millions ..
8,347
n/a
n/a
n/a
8,354
8
0.1
0.0
7,847
(500)
(6.0)
5
7,936
(411)
(4.9)
12
7,893
(454)
(5.4)
12
7,857
(490)
(5.9)
25
7,685
(662)
(7.9)
127
6,855
(1,492)
(17.9)
279
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
15
16
16
52
158
532
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
20
28
28
77
284
810
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
TABLE V.19.—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS UNDER THE TIERED MARKUPS
SCENARIO
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Units
INPV ......................
Change in INPV ....
Product Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion
Costs.
VerDate Mar<15>2010
Base
case
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009$ millions ..
2009$ millions ..
(%) ....................
2009$ millions ..
8,347
n/a
n/a
n/a
8,379
33
0.4
0.0
8,021
(326)
(3.9)
5
7,638
(709)
(8.5)
12
7,475
(871)
(10.4)
12
7,467
(879)
(10.5)
25
6,509
(1,837)
(22.0)
127
4,578
(3,768)
(45.1)
279
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
15
16
16
52
158
532
19:54 Jun 24, 2011
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TABLE V.19.—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS UNDER THE TIERED MARKUPS
SCENARIO—Continued
Units
Total Investment Required.
Trial standard level
Base
case
2009$ millions ..
1
n/a
2
0.0
3
20
4
28
5
28
6
77
7
284
810
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
Sales of split-system air conditioners
make up more than 60 percent of
residential central cooling shipments,
and non-weatherized gas furnaces make
up more than 80 percent of the
residential furnace shipments,
respectively. These two product classes
are the largest drivers of INPV in the
conventional product grouping. In the
base case, the conventional products
industry is estimated to have an INPV
value of $8,347 million (2009$).
TSL 1 represents the efficiency levels
for the conventional product classes that
have the largest market share today. At
TSL 1, DOE estimates impacts on INPV
to be small, but positive. INPV impacts
range from $33 million to $8 million, or
a change in INPV of 0.4 percent to 0.1
percent. At this considered level,
industry free cash flow 94 is estimated to
remain steady at $511 million for both
the base case and standards case in the
year before the TSL 1 compliance date
(2015).
At TSL 1, the impacts on the industry
are minor because manufacturers
already ship products at TSL 1
efficiencies in high volumes. Eighty-one
percent of all conventional HVAC
products shipped today meet or exceed
the TSL 1 standards. Additionally, an
increase in standards from 13 SEER to
13.5 SEER for split-system air
conditioning and heat pumps is
expected to require no significant
conversion costs. As a result, INPV
remains mostly stable at this considered
standard level.
TSL 2 has a higher standard for nonweatherized gas furnaces than TSL 1.
This results in a greater negative impact
on INPV. TSL requires non-weatherized
gas furnaces to meet a 92-percent AFUE
minimum efficiency in the North. DOE
estimates TSL 2 impacts on INPV to
range from ¥$326 million to ¥$500
million, or a change in INPV of ¥3.9
percent to ¥6.0 percent. At this level,
94 Free cash flow (FCF) is a metric commonly
used in financial valuation. DOE calculates FCF by
adding back depreciation to net operating profit
after tax and subtracting increases in working
capital and capital expenditures. See TSD chapter
12 for more detail on FCF and its relevance to
DOE’s MIA results.
VerDate Mar<15>2010
19:54 Jun 24, 2011
Jkt 223001
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 5.3 percent
to $484 million, compared to the basecase value of $511 million, in the year
2015.
At TSL 2, for the non-weatherized gas
furnace standard, manufacturers may
incur elevated conversion costs as they
redesign a 92-percent AFUE furnace
product to meet the requirements of the
builder market and adjust their product
families accordingly in the North. At 92percent AFUE, these furnaces would
require a secondary heat exchanger,
and, when compared to a 90-percent
AFUE design, the heat exchangers
would need to be sized up. DOE
estimates that at this level, nonweatherized gas furnace conversion
costs total approximately $20 million
for the industry. These conversion costs,
along with changes in shipments due to
standards, account for much of the drop
in INPV from TSL 1 to TSL 2.
TSL 3 incorporates regional standards
for split-system air conditioning and
furnace products. Compared to the
baseline, TSL 3 proposes a higher air
conditioning and heat pump standard in
the South (14 SEER minimum) and a
higher furnace standard in the North
(90-percent AFUE minimum). At TSL 3,
DOE estimates impacts on INPV to range
from ¥$411 million to ¥$709 million,
or a change in INPV of ¥4.9 percent to
¥8.5 percent. At this considered level,
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 5.8 percent
to $481 million, compared to the basecase value of $511 million, in the year
leading up to the year in which
compliance with considered energy
conservation standards would be
required (2015).
Both markup scenarios in the GRIM
for the energy efficiency standards at
TSL 3 assume that a commoditization of
14 SEER air conditioning units in the
South would put downward pressure on
margins for 14 SEER units sold in all
regions. Similarly, the 90-percent AFUE
standard for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the North would negatively
affect margins for non-weatherized gas
furnace units sold in all regions. This
impact on markups is more severe in the
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tiered scenario, because the change in
the standard also compresses markups
on higher-AFUE products, which are
effectively demoted in the ‘‘good, better,
best’’ sales model. As a result, INPV
decreases by 8.5 percent in the tiered
markup scenario, compared to 4.9
percent in the preservation of EBIT
scenario.
TSL 4 represents the consensus
agreement level and incorporates
accelerated compliance dates. The
standards are set at the same level as
TSL 3, except that TSL 4 also includes
EER standards for central air
conditioners in the hot-dry region. In
addition, the furnace standards are
modeled to take effect in 2013, and the
air conditioning and heat pump
standards are modeled to take effect in
2015, instead of the 2016 compliance
dates used in TSL 3. At TSL 4, DOE
estimates impacts on INPV to range
¥$454 million to ¥$871 million, or a
change in INPV of ¥5.4 percent to
¥10.4 percent. At this level, industry
free cash flow is estimated to decrease
by approximately 9.6 percent to $462
million, compared to the base-case
value of $511 million, in the year 2015.
To comply with the earlier
compliance dates, manufacturers must
make earlier investments in product
conversions, which negatively affect
INPV because of discounting effects.
Additionally, the accelerated schedule
for amended standards leads to earlier
commoditization of residential furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
products. As a result, the INPV value is
slightly more negative in TSL 4 than in
TSL 3 for both the preservation of EBIT
scenario and the tiered markups
scenario.
TSL 5 includes higher furnace
standards than TSL 4. Non-weatherized
gas furnace standards would increase to
95-percent AFUE. Additionally, TSL 5
lacks the accelerated compliance dates
associated with TSL 4. All HVAC
standards in TSL 5 would require
compliance in 2016. At TSL 5, DOE
estimates impacts on INPV to range
from ¥$490 million to ¥$879 million,
or a change in INPV of ¥5.9 percent to
¥10.5 percent. At this considered level,
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industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 9.7 percent
to $461 million, compared to the basecase value of $511 million, in the year
2015.
At 95-percent AFUE, non-weatherized
gas furnace efficiency would be one
efficiency level below max-tech. To
comply with such a standard,
manufacturers would need to increase
heat exchanger size up to the physical
constraints of the furnace cabinets.
Furnace manufacturers would need to
upgrade their 95-percent AFUE
production lines to meet demand.
Additionally, manufacturers expect this
efficiency level would require
significant R&D costs to redesign and
convert a premium, feature-loaded
product into a basic value-line product,
which would be demanded by the
builder market. As a result, industry
conversion costs could grow from $28
million at TSL 4 to $77 million at TSL
5. INPV becomes slightly more negative
from TSL 4 to TSL 5.
TSL 6 elevates the standard for air
conditioning and heat pumps over TSL
5 while maintaining the same standards
for all furnace product classes. TSL 6 is
the most aggressive regional standard
considered in this rulemaking (although
TSL 7 has more stringent standards, the
standards in TSL 7 are national rather
than regional). At TSL 6, DOE estimates
impacts on INPV to range from ¥$662
million to ¥$1837 million, or a change
in INPV of ¥7.9 percent to ¥22.0
percent. At this considered level,
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 24.7 percent
to $385 million, compared to the base-
case value of $511 million, in the year
2015.
In the base case, 73 percent of splitsystem air conditioning shipments in
the North are below 14 SEER, and 84
percent of split-system air conditioning
shipments in the South are below 15
SEER. Increasing the minimum
efficiency to 14 SEER in the North and
15 SEER in the South requires
significantly more capital expenditure
from manufacturers. At TSL 6,
manufacturers would need to redesign
their highest-volume product lines in
both the South and the North. There are
multiple design paths that manufacturer
could take; however, the changes will
likely involve the addition of two-stage
compressors, the enlargement of heat
exchangers, the application of moresophisticated controls, the incorporation
of microchannel technology, or some
combination of these options. Some
manufacturers indicated that new
production facilities would be necessary
at this potential standard level.
TSL 7 represents the max-tech
efficiency level for all product classes.
At TSL 7, DOE estimates impacts on
INPV to range from ¥$1,492 million to
¥$3,768 million, or a change in INPV
of ¥17.9 percent to ¥45.1 percent. At
this considered level, industry free cash
flow is estimated to decrease by
approximately 65.9 percent to $174
million, compared to the base-case
value of $511 million, in the year 2015.
At TSL 7, the industry incurs
significant R&D costs and loses the
ability to differentiate products based on
efficiency. For central air conditioning
systems, manufacturers would likely
have to move to add a second
compressor, incorporate inverter
technology, or make their product
significantly larger. For furnaces,
manufacturers would likely have to
incorporate burner modulation
technology, which would include
adding modulating gas valves, variable
speed inducer fans, and moresophisticated controls. These potential
standard levels would require much
higher R&D and product design
expenditures by manufacturers. It could
be difficult for all major manufacturers
to justify the investments necessary to
reach max-tech. A few manufacturers
indicated that building a new facility
would create less business disruption
risk than attempting to completely
redesign and upgrade existing facilities.
Additionally, some manufacturers noted
that lower labor rates in Mexico and
other countries abroad may entice them
to move their production facilities
outside of the U.S. There was general
agreement that the high conversion
costs and more expensive components
required in TSL 7 could also make
foreign-based technologies, which have
traditionally been more expensive, more
attractive in the domestic market.
(ii) Cash-Flow Analysis Results for
Niche Furnace Products
Table V.20 and Table V.21 show the
MIA results for each TSL using the
markup scenarios described above for
niche furnace products. The niche
furnace grouping includes the mobile
home and oil furnace product classes. In
the base case, annual mobile home
furnace shipments total approximately
120,000 units/year, while annual oil
furnace shipments total approximately
80,000 units/year for 2010.
TABLE V.20—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR NICHE FURNACE PRODUCTS UNDER THE PRESERVATION OF EBIT
SCENARIO
Base
case
Units
INPV ........................
Change in INPV ......
Product Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion
Costs.
Total Investment Required.
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
132
(17)
(11.6)
4
125
(24)
(16.4)
4
131
(18)
(12.1)
8
131
(18)
(12.1)
8
109
(40)
(26.7)
16
2009$ millions ..
2009$ millions ..
(%) ....................
2009$ millions ..
149
n/a
n/a
n/a
149
0
0.0
0.0
151
2
1.2
0
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
0
11
11
17
17
35
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
0
15
15
24
24
51
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
TABLE V.21—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR NICHE FURNACE PRODUCTS UNDER THE TIERED MARKUP SCENARIO
Units
INPV ........................
Change in INPV ......
VerDate Mar<15>2010
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2009$ millions ..
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Base
case
149
n/a
PO 00000
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1
2
149
(0)
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3
4
5
6
7
151
2
129
(20)
120
(29)
114
(36)
114
(36)
94
(55)
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37511
TABLE V.21—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR NICHE FURNACE PRODUCTS UNDER THE TIERED MARKUP
SCENARIO—Continued
Base
case
Units
Product Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion
Costs.
Total Investment Required.
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
(13.5)
4
(19.6)
4
(23.8)
8
(23.8)
8
(36.7)
16
(%) ....................
2009$ millions ..
n/a
n/a
(0.0)
0.0
1.4
0
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
0
11
11
17
17
35
2009$ millions ..
n/a
0.0
0
15
15
24
24
51
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
At TSL 1 and TSL 2, the standardscase efficiency remains at the baseline
level for both mobile home furnaces and
oil furnaces. There are no conversion
costs, and the INPV varies very little
from the baseline value.
At TSL 3, the oil furnace standard
increases to 83-percent AFUE, while the
mobile home furnace standard increases
to 90-percent AFUE in the North. At
TSL 3, DOE estimates impacts on INPV
to range from ¥$17 million to ¥$20
million, or a change in INPV of ¥11.6
percent to ¥13.5 percent. At this level,
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 54.0 percent
to $5.1 million, compared to the basecase value of $11.0 million, in the year
2015.
TSL 3 would require the addition of
a secondary heat exchanger for mobile
home furnace products sold in the
North. As a result, mobile home furnace
manufacturers could incur conversion
costs for redesigns and tooling. Oil
furnace manufacturers would likely
need to increase the surface area of heat
exchangers. DOE estimates conversion
costs for the entire industry to meet the
TSL 3 to be $15 million.
TSL 4 represents the consensus
agreement level and incorporates
accelerated compliance dates. The
mobile home furnace standard and the
oil furnace standard do not vary from
TSL 3. DOE estimates impacts on INPV
to range from ¥$24 million to ¥$29
million, or a change in INPV of ¥16.4
percent to ¥19.6 percent. At this level,
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 11.5 percent
to $9.8 million, compared to the basecase value of $11.0 million, in the year
2015.
The accelerated compliance dates of
TSL 4 lead to earlier investments by
manufacturers. The production line
changes necessary to produce secondary
heat exchangers for mobile home
furnace products and larger heat
exchanges for oil furnaces would need
to occur before the standards year 2013.
VerDate Mar<15>2010
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Manufacturers could incur conversion
costs for redesigns and additional
tooling totaling $15 million. There is a
decrease in INPV in TSL 4, as compared
to TSL 3, due to the earlier
commoditization impacts of the
accelerated compliance dates. In TSL 4,
INPV decreases 4.8 percent to 6.1
percent lower than in TSL 3.
TSL 5 and TSL 6 represent an
increase in standards for mobile home
furnaces and oil furnaces above the
level set in TSL 1 through TSL 4. The
standard in the North for mobile home
furnaces increases to 96-percent AFUE,
and the national standard for oil
furnaces increases to 85-percent AFUE.
TSL 5 and TSL 6 require compliance in
2016. DOE estimates impacts on INPV to
range from ¥$18 million to ¥$36
million, or a change in INPV of ¥12.1
percent to ¥23.8 percent. At this level,
industry free cash flow is estimated to
decrease by approximately 86.0 percent
to $1.6 million, compared to the basecase value of $11 million, in the year
2015.
TSL 5 and TSL 6 would raise the
standard in the North for mobile home
furnaces to the max-tech level (i.e., 96percent AFUE). At this level, all mobile
home furnaces in the North would be
required to be condensing. This change
would drive the increase in conversion
cost, as manufacturers work on
condensing furnace designs that
function within the physical dimension
and price constraints of the mobile
home market. Mobile home furnace
manufacturers would no longer be able
to differentiate products based on
efficiency. In interviews, manufacturers
noted that the loss of product
differentiation would lead to increased
focus on cost competitiveness. Given
the size of the mobile home furnace
market (approximately 120,000 units
per year) and manufacturer feedback
that the mobile home market is highly
price sensitive, a number of
manufacturers could choose to exit the
market rather than compete at this
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efficiency level. Additionally, TSL 5
and TSL 6 would increase the standard
for oil furnaces to 85-percent AFUE. To
reach this level, manufacturers would
continue to increase the surface area of
heat exchangers, incurring additional
production costs and higher raw
material costs. Conversion costs for TSL
5 and TSL 6 are $24 million. At this
cost, it is possible that some oil furnace
manufacturers would exit the business.
TSL 7 raises the standard for oil
furnaces and mobile home furnaces to
max-tech. DOE estimates impacts on
INPV to range ¥$40 million to ¥$55
million, or a change in INPV of ¥26.7
percent to ¥36.7 percent. At this
considered level, industry free cash flow
is estimated to decrease by
approximately 193 percent to ¥$9.2
million, compared to the base-case
value of $11 million, in the year 2015.
TSL 7 sets a national standard for oil
furnaces at the max-tech level (i.e., 97percent AFUE). This efficiency level
would require the development of
condensing oil furnaces as the baseline
product. DOE was only able to identify
one domestic manufacturer offering a
condensing oil furnace. The
development of cost-effective, reliable,
and durable oil furnace products would
require significant capital expenditures
by a majority of the industry. It is
unclear how many manufacturers would
make the product conversion
investment to compete in a market that
supplies fewer than 80,000 units/year
and, according to most manufacturers, is
shrinking. However, given the limited
size of the oil furnace market and the
market’s declining shipments, it could
be expected that a number of
manufacturers would choose to leave
the market rather than compete at this
efficiency level. DOE expects a similar
effect in the mobile home furnace
market.
(iii) Cash-Flow Analysis Results for
Standby Mode and Off Mode Standards
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TABLE V.22—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE IMPACTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING, AND HEAT PUMP
PRODUCTS UNDER THE PRESERVATION OF GROSS MARGIN PERCENTAGE SCENARIO
Standby mode and off mode TSL
Units
Base case
1
INPV .....................................................................
Change in INPV ....................................................
2
3
Product Conversion Costs ....................................
Capital Conversion Costs .....................................
2009$ millions ...............
2009$ millions ...............
(%) ................................
2009$ millions ...............
2009$ millions ...............
8,711
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8,715
4
0.05
2.77
0
8,716
5
0.06
2.77
0
8,734
23
0.26
2.77
0
Total Investment Required ............................
2009$ millions ...............
n/a
2.77
2.77
2.77
TABLE V.23—STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE IMPACTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING, AND HEAT PUMP
PRODUCTS UNDER THE PRESERVATION OF EBIT SCENARIO
Standby mode and off mode TSL
Units
Base case
1
INPV .....................................................
Change in INPV ...................................
2
3
Product Conversion Costs ...................
Capital Conversion Costs ....................
2009$ millions
2009$ millions
(%)
2009$ millions
2009$ millions
8,711
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8,458
(253)
(2.91)
2.77
0
8,457
(253)
(2.91)
2.77
0
8,456
(255)
(2.93)
2.77
0
Total Investment Required ...........
2009$ millions
n/a
2.77
2.77
2.77
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
The preservation of gross margin
percentage and preservation of EBIT
markup scenarios for the standby mode
and off mode analysis provide similar
results. DOE estimates impacts on INPV
to range from $23 million to ¥$255
million, or a change in INPV of 0.26
percent to ¥2.93 percent. These results
include the impacts of conversion costs,
estimated at $2.8 million for the
industry. DOE estimated total
conversion costs to be similar at all
three standby mode and off mode TSLs,
because the levels of R&D, testing, and
compliance expenditures do not vary
dramatically. Furthermore, DOE did not
identify significant changes to
manufacturer production processes that
would result from standby mode and off
mode standards. In general, the range of
potential impacts resulting from the
standby mode and off mode standards is
small when compared to the range of
potential impacts resulting from the
energy efficiency standards.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
b. Impacts on Employment
DOE quantitatively assessed the
impacts of amended energy
conservation standards on domestic
employment. DOE used the GRIM to
estimate the domestic labor
expenditures and number of domestic
production workers in the base case and
at each energy efficiency TSL from 2010
to 2045. DOE used statistical data from
the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2008
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Economic Census,95 the results of the
engineering analysis, and interviews
with manufacturers to determine the
inputs necessary to calculate industrywide labor expenditures and domestic
employment levels. Labor expenditures
resulting from the manufacture of
products are a function of the labor
intensity of the product, the sales
volume, and an assumption that wages
remain fixed in real terms over time.
In the GRIM, DOE used the labor
content of each product and the
manufacturing production costs from
the engineering analysis to estimate the
annual labor expenditures in the
industry. DOE used Census data and
interviews with manufacturers to
estimate the portion of the total labor
expenditures that is attributable to U.S.
(i.e., domestic) labor.
The production worker estimates in
this section only cover employment up
to the line-supervisor level for functions
involved in fabricating and assembling
a product within a manufacturer
facility. Workers performing services
that are closely associated with
production operations, such as material
handing with a forklift, are also
included as production labor. DOE’s
estimates only account for production
workers who manufacture the specific
products covered by this rulemaking.
95 Annual Survey of Manufacturing: 2006.
American FactFinder. 2008. Bureau of the Census
(Available at: < https://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/
IBQTable?_bm=y&-ds_name=AM0631GS101>).
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For example, even though a
manufacturer may also produce hearth
products, a worker on a hearth product
line would not be included with the
estimate of the number of residential
furnace workers.
Impact on employment results are
based on analysis of energy efficiency
standards. For standby mode and off
mode, the technology options
considered in the engineering analysis
result in component swaps, which do
not add significant product complexity.
While some product development effort
will be required, DOE does not expect
the standby mode and off mode
standard to meaningfully affect the
amount of labor required in production.
Therefore, the standby and off mode
would not result in significant changes
to employment calculations based on
the energy efficiency TSLs.
The employment impacts shown in
Table V.24 represent the potential
production employment that could
result following the adoption of
amended energy conservation
standards. The upper end of the results
in the table estimates the maximum
change in the number of production
workers after amended energy
conservation standards must be met.
The upper end of the results assumes
that manufacturers would continue to
produce the same scope of covered
products in the same production
facilities, or in new or expanded
facilities located in the United States.
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U.S. Finally, it is noted that the
employment impacts shown are
independent of the employment impacts
to the broader U.S. economy, which are
documented in chapter 13 of the direct
final rule TSD.
Using the GRIM, DOE estimates that
in the absence of amended energy
conservation standards, there would be
16,902 domestic production workers
involved in manufacturing residential
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps in 2016. Using 2008 Census
The upper end of the range, therefore,
assumes that domestic production does
not shift to lower-labor-cost countries.
Because there is a real risk of
manufacturers evaluating sourcing
decisions in response to amended
energy conservation standards, the
lower end of the range of employment
results in Table V.24 includes the
estimated total number of U.S.
production workers in the industry who
could lose their jobs if all existing
production were moved outside of the
37513
Bureau data and interviews with
manufacturers, DOE estimates that
approximately 89 percent of products
sold in the United States are
manufactured domestically. Table V.24
shows the range of the impacts of
potential amended energy conservation
standards on U.S. production workers in
the residential furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump market. The
table accounts for both conventional
products and niche furnace products.
TABLE V.24—POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF RESIDENTIAL FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
HEAT PUMP PRODUCTION WORKERS IN 2016
Trial standard level
Base Case
Total Number of Domestic
Production Workers in
2016 (without facilities
moving offshore) ..............
Potential Changes in Domestic Production Workers in 2016* .....................
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
16,902
16,998
17,242
17,485
17,746
17,940
17,998
18,102
n/a
96–(16,902)
340–(16,902)
583–(16,902)
844–(16,902)
1038–(16,902)
1096–(16,902)
1200–(16,902)
* DOE presents a range of potential employment impacts.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
Based on the GRIM analysis, DOE
estimates that there would be positive
employment impacts among
conventional residential furnace, central
air conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers at the upper bound of the
employment estimates. This effect
occurs because the required labor
content increases per product at higher
efficiency levels, and the analysis
assumes manufacturers do not alter the
current mix of domestic and
international production. DOE believes
the assumption for the employment
scenarios become less realistic at the
most stringent TSLs when complete
technology changes would likely require
the development of new manufacturing
plants.
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
(i) Conventional Furnaces, Central Air
Conditioners, and Heat Pumps
Most manufacturers currently have
excess production capacity, reflected in
part by the substantial decline in
shipments since the height of the
housing boom in 2005. Manufacturers
did not express major capacity-related
concerns at the efficiency levels
included at TSL 1, 2, and 3.
Additionally, manufacturers did not
express concerns about the production
capacity at TSL 4, which includes
accelerated compliance dates arising out
of the consensus agreement. All major
manufacturers that were interviewed
agreed that the timelines in TSL 4 could
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be met and that no capacity shortages
were likely to occur.
At TSL 5, the standard levels for all
central air conditioners and heat pumps
product classes would be the same as at
TSL 4, so DOE does not anticipate
capacity impacts for these products. For
non-weatherized gas furnaces, TSL 5
would be more challenging for
manufacturers because of the 95-percent
AFUE standard in the North (as opposed
to the 90-percent AFUE standard in the
North in TSL 4). However, because the
regional standard in the South is set at
the baseline efficiency, manufacturers
would not have to redesign all
production lines. Additionally, TSL 5
allows for an additional 3 years beyond
TSL 4’s consensus timeline for
manufacturers to ramp up production
capabilities. Therefore, DOE does not
believe there would be any impact on
manufacturing capacity from TSL 1 to
TSL 5.
At the efficiency levels included in
TSL 6 and TSL 7, manufacturers were
concerned that the changes in
technology could impose production
capacity constraints in the near to
medium term. At TSL 6, the higher
energy conservation standard would
increase industry demand for some key
components and tooling over current
levels. All major manufacturers would
seek to increase their purchasing
volumes of high-efficiency compressors,
ECM motors, and production tooling
during the same timeframe. Given that
the industry relies on a limited number
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Fmt 4701
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of suppliers for these parts, some
manufacturers expressed concern that a
bottleneck in the supply chain could
create production constraints.
At TSL 7, the major domestic
manufacturers of split-system air
conditioners and heat pumps would
likely need to redesign all of their
existing products to incorporate moreefficient technologies for residential
applications. If manufacturers chose not
to or could not afford to develop new
technologies, they would likely need to
significantly enlarge the products’
exchangers, which in turn would
require a redesign of their production
lines to accommodate significantly
larger units or to add a second
compressor. This increased demand for
components and production tooling
could lead to short-term constraints on
production. Manufacturers would face
similar concerns with non-weatherized
gas furnaces. Manufacturers would have
to redesign all product lines to
incorporate burner modulation
technology, which would include
adding modulating gas valves, variablespeed inducer fans, and moresophisticated controls. The coinciding
demand for modulating gas valves and
variable-speed inducer fans from seven
major manufacturers could potentially
create supply chain constraints.
In summary, production capacity
implications for the conventional
product classes would be most severe at
TSL 6 and TSL 7.
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(ii) Niche Furnace Products
According to the manufacturers of oil
furnace and mobile home furnace
products, amended energy conservation
standards should not significantly affect
production capacity, except at the maxtech levels (where condensing operation
would be required). According to
manufacturers interviewed, these
capacity-related concerns are focused on
the technical feasibility of increasing oil
furnace efficiency to condensing levels.
Most manufacturers have not found a
design that reliably delivers
performance above 95-percent AFUE.
Some manufacturers indicated that they
would not be able to produce products
at the condensing level until the sulfur
content of heating oil was regulated and
substantially lowered in key markets.
d. Impacts on Sub-Groups of Small
Manufacturers
As discussed in section IV.I.1, using
average cost assumptions to develop an
industry cash-flow estimate is not
adequate for assessing differential
impacts among manufacturer subgroups.
Small manufacturers, niche equipment
manufacturers, and manufacturers
exhibiting a cost structure substantially
different from the industry average
could be affected disproportionately.
DOE used the results of the industry
characterization to group manufacturers
exhibiting similar characteristics.
Consequently, DOE identified two subgroups for analysis: (1) Small
manufacturers and (2) SDHV
manufacturers.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
(i) Small Manufacturers Sub-Group
DOE evaluated the impact of amended
energy conservation standards on small
manufacturers, specifically ones defined
as ‘‘small businesses’’ by the U.S. Small
Business Administration (SBA). The
SBA defines a ‘‘small business’’ as
having 750 employees or less for NAICS
333415, ‘‘Air-Conditioning and Warm
Air Heating Equipment and Commercial
and Industrial Refrigeration Equipment
Manufacturing.’’ Based on this
definition, DOE identified four niche
central air conditioner and heat pump
manufacturers and five niche furnace
manufacturers that are classified as
small businesses. DOE describes the
differential impacts on these small
businesses in today’s notice at section
VI.B, Review Under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act.
Section VI.B concludes that larger
manufacturers could have a competitive
advantage in multiple niche product
markets due to their size and ability to
access capital. Additionally, in some
market segments, larger manufacturers
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have significantly higher production
volumes over which to spread costs.
The Department cannot certify this rule
would not have a significant economic
impact on a substantial number of small
manufacturers. However, DOE has
carefully considered these potential
impacts and has sought to mitigate any
such impacts in this rule. For a
complete discussion of the impacts on
small businesses, see chapter 12 of the
direct final rule TSD.
(ii) Small-Duct, High-Velocity
Manufacturers Sub-Group
Small-duct, high-velocity systems
serve a niche within the residential air
conditioning market. A SDHV system
consists of a non-conventional indoor
unit and air distribution system
(produced by the SDHV manufacturer)
mated to a conventional outdoor unit
(produced by split-system
manufacturers). These SDHV systems
typically make use of flexible ducting
and operate at a higher static pressure
than conventional air conditioning
systems. This product class makes up
less than 0.5 percent of central air
conditioning shipments. DOE estimates
the total market size to be less than
30,000 units per year.
SDHV systems are primarily installed
in existing structures that do not have
air conditioning duct work. In this
application, SDHV systems are often a
more cost-effective solution for
centralized cooling because
conventional systems may require
substantial installation and retrofit costs
to install ducting. The SDHV system
delivers conditioned air via small
diameter flexible tubing, which requires
less space than conventional ductwork.
SDHV systems are often paired with
hydronic heat, radiant heat, and ground
temperature heat pump systems.
Historically, approximately 80 percent
of shipments have been for the retrofit
market, and 20 percent of shipments
have been for the new construction
market.
DOE has identified three
manufacturers of SDHV systems that
serve the U.S. market. The two domestic
manufacturers, Unico Systems and
SpacePak, serve the majority of the
market. SpacePak is a subsidiary of
MesTek Inc., a U.S. holding company
with over 30 specialty manufacturing
brands. Unico is a small business, as
defined by the SBA.
DOE’s analysis of AHRI Directory
product listings indicates that the
primary difference between SDHV
products rated at 11 SEER and SDHV
products rated above 11 SEER is the
paired condensing unit. The indoor
unit, which is the component designed
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and manufactured by SpacePak and
Unico, does not change as the AHRIcertified efficiency increases. SpacePak
and Unico are reaching higher
efficiencies by pairing their products
with larger condensing units, which are
produced by conventional air
conditioning and heat pump
manufacturers.
According to SDHV manufacturers,
the small size of the SDHV industry
limits influence on key suppliers. As a
result, SDHV manufacturers must
choose from stock fan motors,
compressors, and products that are
optimized for other applications and
industries. The selection of available
components limits the technology
options available to SDHV
manufacturers, thereby constraining the
manufacturers’ ability to achieve
efficiencies above 11 SEER through
improved product design. Interviewed
SDHV manufacturers indicated that they
are near max-tech for the SDHV indoor
unit with the standards in this rule and
available components.
In 2004, both Unico and SpacePak
petitioned DOE’s Office of Hearings and
Appeals (OHA) for exception relief from
the 13 SEER energy efficiency standard
found at 10 CFR 430.32(c)(2), with
which compliance was required for
products manufactured on or after
January 23, 2006. OHA granted both
petitions on October 14, 2004.96
Accordingly, the manufacturers were
authorized to produce equipment that
performed at 11 SEER/6.8 HSPF and
above. In their 2004 application for
exception relief, SpacePak and Unico
both indicated that a 13 SEER standard
would create significant hardships for
the SDHV industry. SpacePak wrote in
its application for exception relief that
an absence of relief would lead to ‘‘the
loss of all sales within the United
States.’’ As part of the 2004 OHA
Decision and Order (case #TEE–0010),
Lennox International filed comments
stating that ‘‘it agrees these [SDHV]
products would be unfairly burdened by
* * * the 13 SEER/7.7 HSPF minimum
level.’’
Since 2004, SDHV manufacturers
have been able to reach efficiencies of
13 SEER, but the vast majority of
products listed in the AHRI Directory
are below 13 SEER (see chapter 3 of the
direct final rule TSD for a distribution
of SDHV systems by efficiency level).
This improved efficiency is primarily
the result of pairing their products with
higher-efficiency outdoor units
96 Department of Energy: Office of Hearings and
Appeals, Decision and Order, Case #TEE 0010
(2004) (Available at: https://www.oha.doe.gov/cases/
ee/tee0010.pdf) (last accessed September 2010).
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srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
produced by other manufacturers. One
manufacturer has incorporated variablespeed technology to improve product
efficiency. However, overall, SDHV
manufacturers still face many of the
same challenges they faced in 2004 and
have limited options for further
improving the efficiency of the air
handling unit, which is the only
component designed and produced by
SDHV manufacturers. As a result, higher
standards would force SDHV
manufactures to pair their products with
more expensive, higher-efficiency
outdoor units to provide performance
that meets energy conservation
standards. TSL 1 through TSL 5 would
require only the baseline efficiency level
(13 SEER), while TSL 6 and TSL 7
would increase the level to 14 SEER and
14.5 SEER, respectively. DOE believes
the increases represented by TSL 6 and
TSL 7 would significantly adversely
impact the financial standing of SDHV
manufacturers. As discussed in their
2004 application for exception relief,
such an increase would likely
significantly depress shipments because
it would require additional controls and
a much more expensive outdoor unit.
As a result manufacturers would be
forced to spread fixed costs over a lower
volume and would be less able to pass
on the higher incremental costs.
Manufacturers would face increasingly
difficult decisions regarding the
investment of resources toward what
would likely be a much smaller market.
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
While any one regulation may not
impose a significant burden on
manufacturers, the combined effects of
several impending regulations may have
serious consequences for some
manufacturers, groups of manufacturers,
or an entire industry. Assessing the
impact of a single regulation may
overlook this cumulative regulatory
burden. In addition to DOE energy
conservation standards, other
regulations can significantly affect
manufacturers’ financial operations.
Multiple regulations affecting the same
manufacturer can strain profits and can
lead companies to abandon product
lines or markets with lower expected
future returns than competing products.
For these reasons, DOE conducts an
analysis of cumulative regulatory
burden as part of its rulemakings
pertaining to appliance efficiency.
During previous stages of this
rulemaking, DOE identified a number of
requirements, in addition to amended
energy conservation standards for
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps, that manufacturers of these
products will face for products they
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manufacture within three years prior to
and three years after the anticipated
compliance date of the amended
standards. These requirements included
DOE’s amended energy conservation
standards for other products produced
by the manufacturers covered under this
rulemaking. Amended energy
conservation standards coming into
effect during the analysis period that are
expected to affect at least a subset of the
manufacturers include the rulemakings
for residential boilers, packaged
terminal air conditioners/packaged
terminal heat pumps, furnace fans, room
air conditioners, and residential water
heaters. DOE discusses these
requirements in greater detail in chapter
12 of the direct final rule TSD.
The most common regulatory burden
concern raised by manufacturers during
interviews was the potential phasedown of HFCs. While no phase-down is
currently required, air conditioning and
heat pump manufacturers raised these
concerns because of HFC phase-down
language in proposed legislation, such
as H.R. 2454, the American Clean
Energy and Security Act of 2009.
Manufacturers cited concerns that a
phase-down of HFC refrigerants could
negatively impact product efficiency,
product functionality, and
manufacturing processes for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
Additionally, there is the potential for
significant conversion costs as well as
higher on-going costs for production.
Furnace manufacturers also cited
concerns about the cumulative burden
associated with low NOX and ultra-low
NOX standards adopted in the South
Coast Air Quality Management District
(SCAQMD) and other air quality
districts of California for mobile home
furnaces, weatherized gas furnaces, and
non-weatherized gas furnaces.97
Manufacturers stated that these
standards will require R&D resources,
which may be limited due to conversion
costs associated with Federal standards.
Several manufacturers indicated that
Canada has programs in place that
regulate products covered in this
rulemaking. DOE research indicates that
Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)
regulates residential furnaces, central air
conditioners and heat pumps, and
furnace fans.98
DOE discusses these and other
requirements, and includes the full
97 California Air Resources Board, South Coast
AQMD List of Current Rules (2010) (Available at:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/drdb/sc/cur.htm) (last
accessed September 2010).
98 Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Energy
Efficiency Regulations (2009) (Available at: https://
oee.nrcan.gc.ca/regulations/guide.cfm) (last
accessed October 2010).
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37515
details of the cumulative regulatory
burden, in chapter 12 of the direct final
rule TSD.
3. National Impact Analysis
This section presents DOE’s estimates
of the national energy savings and the
NPV of consumer benefits that would
result from each of the TSLs considered
as potential amended furnace, central
air conditioner, and heat pump energy
efficiency standards, as well as from
each of the TSLs considered as potential
standards for standby mode and off
mode.
In estimating national energy savings
and the NPV of consumer benefits, for
TSLs 2, 3, and 4, DOE calculated a range
of results that reflect alternative
assumptions with respect to how the
market for non-weatherized and mobile
home furnaces will respond to a
standard at 90-percent or 92-percent
AFUE. DOE believes that the response
of the market to a standard at either of
these efficiency levels is sufficiently
uncertain that it is reasonable to use a
range to represent the expected impacts.
The low end of the range reflects the
approach to forecasting standards-case
efficiency distributions described in
section IV.G.2. With this approach, the
part of the market that was below the
amended standard level rolls up to the
amended standard level in the year of
compliance, and some fraction of
shipments remains above the minimum.
The high end of the range reflects the
possibility that, under an amended
standard that requires a minimum
AFUE of 90 percent or 92 percent, the
entire market will shift to 95 percent
because the additional installed cost,
relative to 90-percent or 92-percent
AFUE, is minimal. In both cases, the
approach to forecasting the change in
efficiency in the years after the year of
compliance is the same.
a. Significance of Energy Savings
To estimate the energy savings
attributable to potential standards for
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps, DOE compared the energy
consumption of these products under
the base case to their anticipated energy
consumption under each TSL. As
discussed in section IV.E, the results
account for a rebound effect of 20
percent for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps (i.e., 20
percent of the total savings from higher
product efficiency are ‘‘taken back’’ by
consumers through more intensive use
of the product).
Table V.25 presents DOE’s forecasts of
the national energy savings for each TSL
considered for energy efficiency, and
Table V.26 presents DOE’s forecasts of
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the national energy savings for each TSL
considered for standby mode and off
mode power. The savings were
calculated using the approach described
in section IV.G. Chapter 10 of the direct
final rule TSD presents tables that also
show the magnitude of the energy
savings if the savings are discounted at
rates of 7 percent and 3 percent.
Discounted energy savings represent a
policy perspective in which energy
savings realized farther in the future are
less significant than energy savings
realized in the nearer term.
TABLE V.25—FURNACES, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT
PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR 2016–2045
Trial standard level
Quads
1 ............................................
2 ............................................
3 ............................................
4 * ..........................................
5 ............................................
6 ............................................
7 ............................................
0.18
2.32 to 2.91
2.97 to 3.84
3.20 to 4.22
3.89
5.91
19.18
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement,
DOE forecasted the energy savings from 2015
through 2045 for central air conditioners and
heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for
furnaces.
TABLE V.26—FURNACES, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT
PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS FOR STANDBY MODE
AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS FOR
2016–2045
Trial standard level
Quads
1 ....................................................
2 ....................................................
3 ....................................................
0.153
0.16
0.186
small business capital as well as
corporate capital. DOE used this
discount rate to approximate the
opportunity cost of capital in the private
sector, since recent OMB analysis has
found the average rate of return to
capital to be near this rate. In addition,
DOE used the 3-percent rate to capture
the potential effects of standards on
private consumption (e.g., through
TABLE V.27—FURNACES, CENTRAL
higher prices for products and the
AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT purchase of reduced amounts of energy).
PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NATIONAL EN- This rate represents the rate at which
ERGY SAVINGS FOR ENERGY EFFI- society discounts future consumption
CIENCY TSLS FOR 2016–2045 (AL- flows to their present value. This rate
TERNATE ASSUMPTIONS FOR SPLIT- can be approximated by the real rate of
SYSTEM COIL-ONLY AIR CONDI- return on long-term government debt,
TIONER REPLACEMENT MARKET)
which has averaged about 3 percent on
a pre-tax basis for the last 30 years.
Trial standard level
Quads
Table V.28 shows the consumer NPV
for each considered energy efficiency
1 ............................................
0.20
2 ............................................
2.34 to 2.93
TSL for furnaces, central air
3 ............................................
2.91 to 3.78
conditioners, and heat pumps, using
4 * ..........................................
3.14 to 4.16
both a 7-percent and a 3-percent
5 ............................................
3.83
discount rate, and Table V.29 shows the
6 ............................................
5.69
consumer NPV results for each TSL
7 ............................................
19.01
DOE considered for standby mode and
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, off mode power. For all TSLs except
DOE forecasted the energy savings from 2015 TSL 4 (the level corresponding to the
through 2045 for central air conditioners and consensus agreement), the impacts
heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for cover the lifetime of products purchased
furnaces.
in 2016–2045; for TSL 4, the impacts
b. Net Present Value of Consumer
cover the lifetime of products purchased
Costs and Benefits
in 2013–2045 for furnaces and in 2015–
DOE estimated the cumulative NPV to
2045 for central air conditioners and
the Nation of the total costs and savings
heat pumps. See chapter 10 of the direct
for consumers that would result from
final rule TSD for more detailed NPV
particular standard levels for furnaces,
results.
central air conditioners, and heat
pumps. In accordance with the OMB’s
guidelines on regulatory analysis,99
DOE calculated NPV using both a 7percent and a 3-percent real discount
rate. The 7-percent rate is an estimate of
the average before-tax rate of return to
private capital in the U.S. economy, and
reflects the returns to real estate and
DOE also conducted a sensitivity
analysis that reflects alternate
assumptions regarding the market
demand for split-system coil-only air
conditioner replacement units at 15
SEER and above in the standards cases
(see section IV.G.2 for details). Table
V.27 shows the NES results for this
sensitivity analysis.
TABLE V.28—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE OF
CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045
3-percent discount rate
Trial standard level
7-percent discount rate
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Billion 2009$
1 .......................................................................................................................................................................
2 .......................................................................................................................................................................
3 .......................................................................................................................................................................
4 * .....................................................................................................................................................................
5 .......................................................................................................................................................................
6 .......................................................................................................................................................................
7 .......................................................................................................................................................................
0.76
10.61 to 11.56
13.35 to 15.29
14.73 to 17.55
15.69
8.18
(45.12)
0.23
2.60 to 2.41
3.36 to 3.36
3.93 to 4.21
3.47
(2.56)
(44.98)
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the consumer benefits for products sold in
2015–2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and in 2013–2045 for furnaces.
99 OMB Circular A–4, section E (Sept. 17, 2003).
Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/
circulars_a004_a-4.
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Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
TABLE V.29—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE OF
CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045
3-percent discount rate
Trial standard level
7-percent discount rate
Billion 2009$
1 .......................................................................................................................................................................
2 .......................................................................................................................................................................
3 .......................................................................................................................................................................
1.14
1.18
1.01
0.371
0.373
0.235
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
DOE also conducted a sensitivity
analysis that reflects alternate
assumptions regarding the market
demand for split-system coil-only air
conditioner replacement units at 15
SEER and above in the standards cases
(see section IV.G.2 for details). Table
V.30 shows the consumer NPV results
for this sensitivity analysis.
TABLE V.30—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045 (ALTERNATE ASSUMPTIONS FOR SPLIT-SYSTEM COIL-ONLY AIR CONDITIONER REPLACEMENT MARKET)
3-percent Discount rate
Trial standard level
7-percent Discount rate
Billion 2009$
1 .......................................................................................................................................................................
2 .......................................................................................................................................................................
3 .......................................................................................................................................................................
4 * .....................................................................................................................................................................
5 .......................................................................................................................................................................
6 .......................................................................................................................................................................
7 .......................................................................................................................................................................
0.87
10.71 to 11.65
14.32 to 16.27
15.71 to 18.53
16.66
10.36
(38.87)
0.26
2.63 to 2.45
3.74 to 3.75
4.31 to 4.59
3.85
(1.68)
(42.47)
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the consumer benefits for products sold in
2015–2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and in 2013–2045 for furnaces.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
DOE also investigated the impact of
different learning rates on the NPV for
the seven energy efficiency TSLs. The
NPV results presented in Table V.28 are
based on learning rates of 18.1 percent
for central air conditioners and heat
pumps, and 30.6 percent for furnaces,
both of which are referred to as the
‘‘default’’ learning rates. DOE
considered three learning rate
sensitivities: (1) A ‘‘high learning’’ rate;
(2) a ‘‘low learning’’ rate; and (3) a ‘‘no
learning’’ rate. The ‘‘high learning’’’
rates are 20.5 percent for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and 33.3
percent for furnaces. The ‘‘low learning’’
rates are 11.5 percent for central air
conditioners and heat pumps and 19.2
percent for furnaces. The ‘‘no learning’’
rate sensitivity assumes constant real
prices over the entire forecast period.
Refer to appendix 8–J of the TSD for
details on the development of the above
learning rates.
Table V.31 provides the annualized
NPV of consumer benefits at a 7-percent
discount rate, combined with the
annualized present value of monetized
benefits from CO2 and NOX emissions
reductions, for each of the energy
efficiency TSLs for the ‘‘default’’
learning rate and the three sensitivity
cases. (DOE’s method for annualization
is described in section V.C.3 of this
notice.) Table V.32 provides the same
combined annualized NPVs using a 3percent discount rate. (Section V.B.6
below provides a complete description
and summary of the monetized benefits
from CO2 and NOX emissions
reductions.) For details on these results,
see appendix 10–C of the direct final
rule TSD.
TABLE V.31—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: ANNUALIZED NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS (7-PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE) AND ANNUALIZED PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM
CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ** FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Learning Rate (LR)
Trial standard level
Default:
LRCAC–HP = 18.1%
LRFURN = 30.6%
High sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 20.5%
LRFURN = 33.3%
Low sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 11.5%
LRFURN = 19.2%
No learning:
LR = 0%
(constant real prices)
Billion 2009$
1 .....................................................................
2 .....................................................................
3 .....................................................................
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0.242 to 0.195
0.328 to 0.312
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TABLE V.31—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: ANNUALIZED NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS (7-PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE) AND ANNUALIZED PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM
CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ** FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045—
Continued
Learning Rate (LR)
Trial standard level
Default:
LRCAC–HP = 18.1%
LRFURN = 30.6%
High sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 20.5%
LRFURN = 33.3%
Low sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 11.5%
LRFURN = 19.2%
No learning:
LR = 0%
(constant real prices)
4 * ...................................................................
5 .....................................................................
6 .....................................................................
7 .....................................................................
0.456 to 0.517
0.451
0.075
(2.497)
0.464 to 0.528
0.462
0.106
(2.360)
0.430 to 0.479
0.414
(0.016)
(2.890)
0.366 to 0.387
0.326
(0.266)
(3.998)
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the consumer benefits for products sold in
2015–2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and in 2013–2045 for furnaces.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
** The economic benefits from reduced CO2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 2010 (in 2009$) for CO2, increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced NOX emissions were calculated using a value of
$2,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis, and a 7-percent discount rate.
TABLE V.32—FURNACES, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS, AND HEAT PUMPS: ANNUALIZED NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER BENEFITS (3-PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE) AND ANNUALIZED PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM
CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ** FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS FOR PRODUCTS SHIPPED IN 2016–2045
Learning Rate (LR)
Trial standard level
Default:
LRCAC–HP = 18.1%
LRFURN = 30.6%
High sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 20.5%
LRFURN = 33.3%
Low sensitivity:
LRCAC–HP = 11.5%
LRFURN = 19.2%
No learning:
LR = 0%
(constant real prices)
Billion 2009$
1 .....................................................................
2 .....................................................................
3 .....................................................................
4 * ...................................................................
5 .....................................................................
6 .....................................................................
7 .....................................................................
0.057
0.639 to 0.685
0.827 to 0.950
0.871 to 1.049
0.976
0.704
(1.152)
0.058
0.646 to 0.694
0.837 to 0.964
0.880 to 1.062
0.990
0.745
(0.972)
0.055
0.611 to 0.644
0.793 to 0.898
0.836 to 0.998
0.924
0.580
(1.673)
0.048
0.553 to 0.559
0.711 to 0.782
0.755 to 0.882
0.807
0.255
(3.094)
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the consumer benefits for products sold in
2015–2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and in 2013–2045 for furnaces.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
** The economic benefits from reduced CO2 emissions were calculated using a SCC value of $22.1/metric ton in 2010 (in 2009$) for CO2, increasing at 3% per year, and a discount rate of 3%. The economic benefits from reduced NOX emissions were calculated using a value of
$2,519/ton (in 2009$), which is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis, and a 3-percent discount rate.
c. Indirect Impacts on Employment
DOE develops estimates of the
indirect employment impacts of
potential standards on the economy in
general. As discussed above, DOE
expects amended energy conservation
standards for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps to reduce
energy bills for consumers of these
products, and the resulting net savings
to be redirected to other forms of
economic activity. These expected shifts
in spending and economic activity
could affect the demand for labor. As
described in section IV.J, to estimate
these effects, DOE used an input/output
model of the U.S. economy. Table V.33
presents the estimated net indirect
employment impacts in 2025 and 2045
for the energy efficiency TSLs that DOE
considered in this rulemaking. Table
V.34 shows the indirect employment
impacts of the standby mode and off
mode TSLs. Chapter 13 of the direct
final rule TSD presents more detailed
results.
TABLE V.33—NET INCREASE IN JOBS FROM INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
Jobs in
2025
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
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3,000
5,400
6,000
6,400
16,000
60,200
Jobs in
2045
500
2,700
6,100
6,300
6,300
18,500
81,400
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proposed standard, and transmits such
determination in writing to the
Secretary, together with an analysis of
the nature and extent of such impact.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (ii))
DOE is publishing a NOPR containing
energy conservation standards identical
to those set forth in today’s direct final
Jobs in
Jobs in
rule and has transmitted a copy of
Trial standard level
2025
2045
today’s direct final rule and the
1 ................................
320
800 accompanying TSD to the Attorney
2 ................................
350
860 General, requesting that the DOJ provide
3 ................................
420
1,020 its determination on this issue. DOE
will consider DOJ’s comments on the
The input/output model suggests that rule in determining whether to proceed
the standards in this rule would be
with the direct final rule. DOE will also
likely to increase the net demand for
publish and respond to DOJ’s comments
labor in the economy. However, the
in the Federal Register in a separate
gains would most likely be very small
notice.
relative to total national employment.
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Moreover, neither the BLS data nor the
Energy
input/output model DOE uses includes
An improvement in the energy
the quality or wage level of the jobs.
efficiency of the products subject to
Therefore, DOE has concluded that the
today’s direct final rule is likely to
standards in this rule are likely to
produce employment benefits sufficient improve the security of the Nation’s
energy system by reducing overall
to fully offset any adverse impacts on
demand for energy. Reduced electricity
employment in the manufacturing
demand may also improve the reliability
industry for the furnaces, central air
of the electricity system. (42 U.S.C.
conditioners, and heat pumps that are
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI)) As a measure of this
the subjects of this rulemaking.
reduced demand, Table V.35 and Table
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
V.36 present the estimated reduction in
Products
generating capacity in 2045 for the TSLs
that DOE considered in this rulemaking
As presented in section III.D.1.d of
this notice, DOE concluded that none of for energy efficiency and standby mode
and off mode power, respectively.
the TSLs considered in this notice
would reduce the utility or performance
TABLE V.35—REDUCTION IN ELECTRIC
of the products under consideration in
this rulemaking. Furthermore,
GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2045
manufacturers of these products
UNDER
CONSIDERED
FURNACE,
currently offer furnaces, central air
CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
conditioners, and heat pumps that meet
HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY
or exceed the standards in this rule. (42
TSLS
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV))
TABLE V.34—NET INCREASE IN JOBS
FROM INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP
STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE
POWER TSLS
5. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
DOE has also considered any
lessening of competition that is likely to
result from amended standards. The
Attorney General determines the
impact, if any, of any lessening of
competition likely to result from a
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Gigawatts
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
..........................................
0.397
0.646 to 1.12
3.61 to 3.53
3.81 to 3.69
3.56
10.5
35.6
TABLE V.36—REDUCTION IN ELECTRIC
GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2045
UNDER
CONSIDERED
FURNACE,
CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS
Trial standard level
Gigawatts
1 ..................................................
2 ..................................................
3 ..................................................
0.103
0.110
0.127
Energy savings from amended
standards for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps could
also produce environmental benefits in
the form of reduced emissions of air
pollutants and greenhouse gases
associated with electricity production,
and also reduced site emissions. Table
V.37 provides DOE’s estimate of
cumulative CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions
reductions that would be expected to
result from each of the TSLs considered
in this rulemaking for energy efficiency
standards, and Table V.38 provides the
results for each of the TSLs considered
for standby mode and off mode power
standards. In the environmental
assessment (chapter 15 in the direct
final rule TSD), DOE reports annual
CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions reductions
for each considered TSL.
As discussed in section IV.L, DOE has
not reported SO2 emissions reductions
from power plants, because there is
uncertainty about the effect of energy
conservation standards on the overall
level of SO2 emissions in the United
States due to SO2 emissions caps. DOE
also did not include NOX emissions
reduction from power plants in States
subject to CAIR because an amended
energy conservation standard would not
affect the overall level of NOX emissions
in those States due to the emissions
caps mandated by CAIR.
TABLE V.37—CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOR 2016–2045 UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Trial standard level
CO2
million metric tons
NOX
thousand tons
Hg
tons
1 .....................................................................................................................
2 .....................................................................................................................
3 .....................................................................................................................
4 * ...................................................................................................................
5 .....................................................................................................................
6 .....................................................................................................................
15.2
62.8 to 61.2
97.1 to 113
105 to 134
116
200
12.3
55.5 to 56.7
83.1 to 98.5
90.1 to 117
102
168
0.022
0.011 to (0.012)
0.086 to 0.059
0.097 to 0.071
0.059
0.270
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Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE V.37—CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOR 2016–2045 UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS—Continued
Trial standard level
CO2
million metric tons
NOX
thousand tons
Hg
tons
7 .....................................................................................................................
772
640
1.160
* For TSL 4, which matches the recommendations in the consensus agreement, DOE forecasted the emissions reductions from 2015 through
2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps, and from 2013 through 2045 for furnaces.
Parentheses indicate a negative value.
TABLE V.38—CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOR 2016–2045 UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND
HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
CO2
million metric
tons
Trial standard level
1 ...................................................................................................................................................
2 ...................................................................................................................................................
3 ...................................................................................................................................................
DOE also estimated monetary benefits
likely to result from the reduced
emissions of CO2 and NOX that DOE
estimated for each of the TSLs
considered for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps. In order
to make this calculation similar to the
calculation of the NPV of consumer
benefit, DOE considered the reduced
emissions expected to result over the
lifetime of products shipped in the
forecast period for each TSL.
As discussed in section IV.M, a
Federal interagency group selected four
SCC values for use in regulatory
analyses, which DOE used in the direct
final rule analysis. The four SCC values
NOX
thousand tons
8.23
8.73
10.1
(expressed in 2009$) are $4.9/ton (the
average value from a distribution that
uses a 5-percent discount rate), $22.1/
ton (the average value from a
distribution that uses a 3-percent
discount rate), $36.3/ton (the average
value from a distribution that uses a 2.5percent discount rate), and $67.1/ton
(the 95th-percentile value from a
distribution that uses a 3-percent
discount rate). These values correspond
to the value of CO2 emission reductions
in 2010; the values for later years are
higher due to increasing damages as the
magnitude of climate change increases.
For each of the four cases, DOE
calculated a present value of the stream
6.60
7.00
8.11
Hg
tons
0.056
0.072
0.079
of annual values using the same
discount rate as was used in the studies
upon which the dollar-per-ton values
are based.
Table V.39 presents the global values
of CO2 emissions reductions at each TSL
considered for energy efficiency. As
explained in section IV.M.1, DOE
calculated domestic values as a range
from 7 percent to 23 percent of the
global values, and these results are
presented in Table V.40. Table V.41 and
Table V.42 present similar results for
the TSLs considered for standby mode
and off mode power.
TABLE V.39—ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
Million 2009$
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5% Discount
rate, average *
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
3% Discount
rate, average *
2.5% Discount
rate, average *
3% Discount
rate, 95th percentile *
65
328 to 320
496 to 577
530 to 672
596
987
3926
332
1805 to 1757
2711 to 3149
2860 to 3622
3253
5326
21391
562
3105 to 3021
4657 to 5409
4902 to 6204
5586
9123
36723
1013
5490 to 5344
8249 to 9581
8705 to 11025
9897
16209
65087
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the SCC and whether it is an average value or drawn from a different part of the
distribution. Values presented in the table incorporate the escalation of the SCC over time.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
TABLE V.40—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
Million 2009$
TSL
5% Discount
rate, average *
3% Discount
rate, average *
2.5% Discount
rate, average *
3% Discount
rate, 95th percentile *
1 ...............................................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................................
4.6 to 15.0
22.4 to 75.4
34.7 to 133
23.2 to 76.4
123 to 415
190 to 724
39.3 to 129
211 to 714
326 to 1244
70.9 to 233
374 to 1263
577 to 2204
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37521
TABLE V.40—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS—Continued
Million 2009$
TSL
4
5
6
7
5% Discount
rate, average *
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................
3% Discount
rate, average *
2.5% Discount
rate, average *
3% Discount
rate, 95th percentile *
37.1 to 155
41.7 to 137
69.1 to 227
275 to 903
200 to 833
228 to 748
373 to 1225
1497 to 4920
343 to 1427
391 to 1285
639 to 2098
2571 to 8446
609 to 2536
691 to 2269
1135 to 3728
4556 to 14970
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the SCC and whether it is an average value or drawn from a different part of the
distribution. Values presented in the table incorporate the escalation of the SCC over time.
TABLE V.41—ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
Million 2009$
TSL
5% Discount
rate, average*
3% Discount
rate, average*
2.5% Discount
rate, average*
41.7
44.3
51.7
228
242
283
3% Discount
rate, 95th
percentile*
392
417
487
1 .......................................................................................................................
2 .......................................................................................................................
3 .......................................................................................................................
694
738
862
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the SCC and whether it is an average value or drawn from a different part of the
distribution. Values presented in the table incorporate the escalation of the SCC over time.
TABLE V.42—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL
AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
Million 2009$
TSL
5% Discount
rate, average*
3% Discount
rate, average*
2.5% Discount
rate, average*
3% discount
rate, 95th
percentile*
1 ...............................................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................................
2.92 to 9.59
3.10 to 10.2
3.62 to 11.9
16.0 to 52.4
16.9 to 55.7
19.8 to 65.1
27.4 to 90.2
29.2 to 95.9
34.1 to 112.0
48.6 to 159.6
51.7 to 169.7
60.3 to 198.3
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the SCC and whether it is an average value or drawn from a different part of the
distribution. Values presented in the table incorporate the escalation of the SCC over time.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
DOE is well aware that scientific and
economic knowledge about the
contribution of CO2 and other GHG
emissions to changes in the future
global climate and the potential
resulting damages to the world economy
continues to evolve rapidly. Thus, any
value placed in this rulemaking on
reducing CO2 emissions is subject to
change. DOE, together with other
Federal agencies, will continue to
review various methodologies for
estimating the monetary value of
reductions in CO2 and other GHG
emissions. This ongoing review will
consider any comments on this subject
that are part of the public record for this
and other rulemakings, as well as other
methodological assumptions and issues.
However, consistent with DOE’s legal
obligations, and taking into account the
uncertainty involved with this
particular issue, DOE has included in
this notice the most recent values and
analyses resulting from the ongoing
interagency review process.
DOE also estimated a range for the
cumulative monetary value of the
economic benefits associated with NOX
emissions reductions anticipated to
result from amended standards for
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps. The dollar-per-ton values
that DOE used are discussed in section
IV.M. Table V.43 presents the
cumulative present values for each TSL
considered for energy efficiency,
calculated using 7-percent and 3percent discount rates. Table V.44
presents similar results for the TSLs
considered for standby mode and off
mode power.
TABLE V.43—ESTIMATES OF PRESENT VALUE OF NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
TSL
3% Discount
rate
million 2009$
7% Discount
rate
million 2009$
1 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
2 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
3 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
3.4 to 35.3
17.9 to 188
26.4 to 322
1.7 to 17.0
6.8 to 72.3
10.3 to 126
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TABLE V.43—ESTIMATES OF PRESENT VALUE OF NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS—Continued
3% Discount
rate
million 2009$
TSL
4
5
6
7
...........................................................................................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................................................................
...........................................................................................................................................................................
7% Discount
rate
million 2009$
28.5 to 380
32.3 to 332
52.2 to 536
203 to 2082
11.9
12.7
21.2
79.8
to
to
to
to
160
131
218
820
TABLE V.44—ESTIMATES OF PRESENT VALUE OF NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
TSL
3% discount
rate
million 2009$
7% discount
rate
million 2009$
1 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
2 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
3 ...........................................................................................................................................................................
2.07 to 21.3
2.20 to 22.6
2.56 to 26.3
0.793 to 8.15
0.841 to 8.65
0.975 to 10.0
The NPV of the monetized benefits
associated with emissions reductions
can be viewed as a complement to the
NPV of the consumer savings calculated
for each TSL considered in this
rulemaking. Table V.45 shows an
example of the calculation of the
combined NPV, including benefits from
emissions reductions for the case of TSL
4 for furnaces, central air conditioners,
and heat pumps. Table V.46 and Table
V.47 present the NPV values that result
from adding the estimates of the
potential economic benefits resulting
from reduced CO2 and NOX emissions
in each of four valuation scenarios to
the NPV of consumer savings calculated
for each TSL considered for energy
efficiency, at both a 7-percent and a 3percent discount rate. The CO2 values
used in the columns of each table
correspond to the four scenarios for the
valuation of CO2 emission reductions
presented in section IV.M. Table V.48
and Table V.49 present similar results
for the TSLs considered for standby
mode and off mode power.
TABLE V.45—ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS TO PRESENT VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM
CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER TSL 4 FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Present value
billion 2009$
Category
Discount
rate
%
10.6 to 14.0
26.3 to 34.4
0.530
2.860
4.902
8.705
0.067
0.161
13.5 to 16.9
29.3 to 37.4
7
3
5
3
2.5
3
7
3
7
3
6.7 to 9.8
11.5 to 16.8
7
3
6.8 to 7.1
17.8 to 20.6
7
3
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings .................................................................................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value (at $4.9/Metric Ton) * ...............................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value (at $22.1/Metric Ton) * .............................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value (at $36.3/Metric Ton) * .............................................................................................
CO2 Reduction Monetized Value (at $67.1/Metric Ton) * .............................................................................................
NOX Reduction Monetized Value (at $2,519/Ton) * ......................................................................................................
Total Monetary Benefits ** .............................................................................................................................................
Costs
Incremental Installed Costs ...........................................................................................................................................
Net Benefits/Costs
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Including CO2 and NOX ** .............................................................................................................................................
* These values represent global values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of $4.9,
$22.1, and $36.3 per ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates, respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount rate. See section
IV.M for details. The value for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
** Total Monetary Benefits and Net Benefits/Costs for both the 3% and 7% cases utilize the central estimate of social cost of CO2 emissions
calculated at a 3% discount rate, which is equal to $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$).
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37523
TABLE V.46—RESULTS OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 7% DISCOUNT RATE) TO PRESENT
VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
Consumer NPV at 7% discount rate added to:
SCC Value of
$4.9/metric ton
CO2 * and Low
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
SCC Value of
$22.1/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$36.3/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$67.1/metric ton
CO2 * and High
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
0.29
2.93 to 2.74
3.87 to 3.95
4.47 to 4.90
4.08
(1.55)
(41.0)
0.57
4.44 to 4.21
6.13 to 6.58
6.85 to 7.92
6.80
2.89
(23.1)
0.80
5.74 to 5.47
8.08 to 8.84
8.89 to 10.5
9.13
6.69
(7.81)
1.26
8.16 to 7.8379
11.7 to 13.1
12.8 to 15.4
13.5
13.9
20.9
* These label values represent the global SCC of CO2 in 2010, in 2009$. The values have been calculated with scenario-consistent discount
rates. See section IV.M for a discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Value corresponds to $447 per ton of NOX emissions. Medium Value corresponds to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions. High Value corresponds to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
TABLE V.47—RESULTS OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE) TO PRESENT
VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY TSLS
Consumer NPV at 3% discount rate added to:
SCC Value of
$4.9/metric ton
CO2 * and Low
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
SCC Value of
$22.1/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$36.3/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$67.1/metric ton
CO2 * and High
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
0.83
11.0 to 11.9
13.9 to 15.9
15.3 to 18.2
16.3
9.2
(41.1)
1.12
12.5 to 13.4
16.2 to 18.6
17.8 to 21.4
19.1
13.8
(22.6)
1.33
13.8 to 14.6
18.1 to 20.8
19.7 to 22.8
21.4
17.4
(8.0)
1.79
16.2 to 17.0
21.7 to 25.0
23.6 to 28.7
25.7
24.6
20.8
* The label values represent the global SCC of CO2 in 2010, in 2009$. The values have been calculated with scenario-consistent discount
rates. See section IV.M for a discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Value corresponds to $447 per ton of NOX emissions. Medium Value corresponds to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions. High Value corresponds to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
TABLE V.48—RESULTS OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 7% DISCOUNT RATE) TO PRESENT
VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
Consumer NPV at 7% discount rate added to:
SCC Value of
$4.9/metric ton
CO2 * and Low
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
TSL
1 ...............................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................
SCC Value of
$22.1/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$36.3/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$67.1/metric ton
CO2 * and High
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
0.413
0.418
0.288
0.603
0.620
0.524
0.767
0.794
0.728
1.072
1.119
1.107
* The label values represent the global SCC of CO2 in 2010, in 2009$. The values have been calculated with scenario-consistent discount
rates. See section IV.M for a discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Value corresponds to $447 per ton of NOX emissions. Medium Value corresponds to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions. High Value corresponds to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions.
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TABLE V.49—RESULTS OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE) TO PRESENT
VALUE OF MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS UNDER FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR
CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER TSLS
Consumer NPV at 3% discount rate added to:
SCC Value of
$4.9/metric ton
CO2 * and Low
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
TSL
SCC Value of
$22.1/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$36.3/metric ton
CO2 * and Medium
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
SCC Value of
$67.1/metric ton
CO2 * and High
Value for NOX **
billion 2009$
1.182
1.226
1.069
1.378
1.434
1.312
1.542
1.608
1.516
1.854
1.939
1.903
1 ...............................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................
* The label values represent the global SCC of CO2 in 2010, in 2009$. The values have been calculated with scenario-consistent discount
rates. See section IV.M for a discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Value corresponds to $447 per ton of NOX emissions. Medium Value corresponds to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions. High Value corresponds to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions.
Although adding the value of
consumer savings to the values of
emission reductions provides a valuable
perspective, two issues should be
considered. First, the national operating
savings are domestic U.S. consumer
monetary savings that occur as a result
of market transactions, while the value
of CO2 reductions is based on a global
value. Second, the assessments of
operating cost savings and CO2 savings
are performed with different methods
that use quite different time frames for
analysis. The national operating cost
savings is measured for the lifetime of
products shipped in the 30-year period
after the compliance date. The SCC
values, on the other hand, reflect the
present value of future climate-related
impacts resulting from the emission of
one ton of carbon dioxide in each year.
These impacts go well beyond 2100.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
7. Other Factors
The Secretary, in determining
whether a proposed standard is
economically justified, may consider
any other factors that he deems to be
relevant. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI))
In developing the proposals set forth in
this notice, DOE has also considered the
comments submitted by interested
parties, including the recommendations
in the consensus agreement, which DOE
believes provides a reasoned statement
by interested persons that are fairly
representative of relevant points of view
(including representatives of
manufacturers of covered products,
States, and efficiency advocates) and
contains recommendations with respect
to an energy conservation standard that
are in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
6295(o). Moreover, DOE has encouraged
the submission of consensus agreements
as a way to get diverse stakeholders
together, to develop an independent and
probative analysis useful in DOE
standard setting, and to expedite the
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rulemaking process. In the present case,
one outcome of the consensus
agreement was a recommendation to
accelerate the compliance dates for
these products, which would have the
effect of producing additional energy
savings at an earlier date. DOE also
believes that standard levels
recommended in the consensus
agreement may increase the likelihood
for regulatory compliance, while
decreasing the risk of litigation.
C. Conclusion
When considering standards, the new
or amended energy conservation
standard that DOE adopts for any type
(or class) of covered product shall be
designed to achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that
the Secretary determines is
technologically feasible and
economically justified. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(A)) In determining whether a
standard is economically justified, the
Secretary must determine whether the
benefits of the standard exceed its
burdens to the greatest extent
practicable, in light of the seven
statutory factors discussed previously.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) The new or
amended standard must also ‘‘result in
significant conservation of energy.’’ (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(B))
For today’s direct final rule, DOE
considered the impacts of standards at
each TSL, beginning with the maximum
technologically feasible level, to
determine whether that level was
economically justified. Where the maxtech level was not justified, DOE then
considered the next most efficient level
and undertook the same evaluation until
it reached the highest efficiency level
that is both technologically feasible and
economically justified and saves a
significant amount of energy.
To aid the reader as DOE discusses
the benefits and/or burdens of each TSL,
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tables present a summary of the results
of DOE’s quantitative analysis for each
TSL. In addition to the quantitative
results presented in the tables, DOE also
considers other burdens and benefits
that affect economic justification. These
include the impacts on identifiable
subgroups of consumers, such as lowincome households and seniors, who
may be disproportionately affected by
an amended national standard. Section
V.B.1 presents the estimated impacts of
each TSL for these subgroups.
DOE also notes that the economics
literature provides a wide-ranging
discussion of how consumers trade off
upfront costs and energy savings in the
absence of government intervention.
Much of this literature attempts to
explain why consumers appear to
undervalue energy efficiency
improvements. This undervaluation
suggests that regulation that promotes
energy efficiency can produce
significant net private gains (as well as
producing social gains by, for example,
reducing pollution). There is evidence
that consumers undervalue future
energy savings as a result of: (1) A lack
of information, (2) a lack of sufficient
salience of the long-term or aggregate
benefits, (3) a lack of sufficient savings
to warrant delaying or altering
purchases (e.g., an inefficient
ventilation fan in a new building or the
delayed replacement of a water pump),
(4) excessive focus on the short term, in
the form of inconsistent weighting of
future energy cost savings relative to
available returns on other investments,
(5) computational or other difficulties
associated with the evaluation of
relevant tradeoffs, and (6) a divergence
in incentives (e.g., renter versus owner;
builder versus purchaser). Other
literature indicates that with less than
perfect foresight and a high degree of
uncertainty about the future, consumers
may trade off these types of investments
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at a higher than expected rate between
current consumption and uncertain
future energy cost savings.
In its current regulatory analysis,
potential changes in the benefits and
costs of a regulation due to changes in
consumer purchase decisions are
included in two ways. First, if
consumers forego a purchase of a
product in the standards case, this
decreases sales for product
manufacturers and the cost to
manufacturers is included in the MIA.
Second, DOE accounts for energy
savings attributable only to products
actually used by consumers in the
standards case; if a regulatory option
decreases the number of products used
by consumers, this decreases the
potential energy savings from an energy
conservation standard. DOE provides
detailed estimates of shipments and
changes in the volume of product
purchases under standards in chapter 9
of the TSD. However, DOE’s current
analysis does not explicitly control for
heterogeneity in consumer preferences,
preferences across subcategories of
products or specific features, or
consumer price sensitivity variation
according to household income (Reiss
and White 2004).
While DOE is not prepared at present
to provide a fuller quantifiable
framework for estimating the benefits
and costs of changes in consumer
purchase decisions due to an energy
conservation standard, DOE seeks
37525
comments on how to more fully assess
the potential impact of energy
conservation standards on consumer
choice and how to quantify this impact
in its regulatory analysis in future
rulemakings.
1. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs
Considered for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy
Efficiency
Table V.50 through Table V.54
present summaries of the quantitative
impacts estimated for each TSL for
furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump energy efficiency. The
efficiency levels contained in each TSL
are described in section V.A.
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
TABLE V.50—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY
TSLS: NATIONAL IMPACTS
Category
TSL 1
TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
National Energy Savings (quads) ...
0.18
2.32 to 2.91
2.97 to 3.84
3.20 to 4.22
3.89
5.91
19.18
15.69
3.47
8.18
(2.56)
(45.12)
(44.98)
116
102
0.059
200
168
0.270
772
640
1.160
NPV of Consumer Benefits (2009$ billion)
3% discount rate .............................
7% discount rate .............................
0.76
0.23
10.61 to 11.56
2.60 to 2.41
13.35 to 15.29
3.36 to 3.36
14.73 to 17.55
3.93 to 4.21
Cumulative Emissions Reduction
CO2 (million metric tons) .................
NOX (thousand tons) .......................
Hg (tons) .........................................
15.2
12.3
0.022
62.8 to 61.2
55.5 to 56.7
0.011 to (0.012)
971.1 to 113
83.1 to 98.5
0.086 to 0.059
105 to 134
90.1 to 117
0.097 to 0.071
Value of Emissions Reductions
CO2 (2009$ billion)* ........................
NOX—3% discount rate (2009$ million) ..............................................
NOX—7% discount rate (2009$ million) ..............................................
Generation Capacity Reduction
(GW)** ..........................................
0.065 to 1.013
0.320 to 5.49
0.496 to 9.58
0.530 to 11.03
0.596 to 9.90
0.987 to 16.21
3.93 to 65.09
3.4 to 35.3
17.9 to 188
26.4 to 322
28.5 to 380
32.3 to 332
52.2 to 536
203 to 2082
1.7 to 17.0
6.8 to 72.3
10.3 to 126
11.9 to 160
12.7 to 131
21.2 to 218
79.8 to 820
0.397
0.646 to 1.12
3.61 to 3.53
3.81 to 3.69
3.56
10.5
35.6
Employment Impacts
Changes in Domestic Production
Workers in 2016 (thousands) ......
Indirect Domestic Jobs (thousands) ** ..................................
0.1 to (16.9)
0.3 to (16.9)
0.6 to (16.9)
0.8 to (16.9)
1 to (16.9)
1.1 to (16.9)
1.2 to (16.9)
0.5
2.7
6.1
6.3
6.3
18.5
81.4
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
* Range of the value of CO2 reductions is based on estimates of the global benefit of reduced CO2 emissions.
** Changes in 2045.
TABLE V.51—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY
TSLS: MANUFACTURER IMPACTS
Category
TSL 1
TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
(478) to (900)
(5.6) to (10.6)
(508) to (915)
(6.0) to (10.8)
(680) to (1873)
(8.0) to (22.0)
(1530) to (3820)
(18.0) to (45.0)
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Manufacturer Impacts
Change in Industry NPV (2009$
million) .........................................
Industry NPV (% change) ...............
8 to 33
0.4 to 0.1
(324) to (498)
(3.8) to (5.9)
(428) to (729)
(5.0) to (8.6)
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
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DOE first considered TSL 7, which
represents the max-tech efficiency
levels. TSL 7 would save 19.18 quads of
energy, an amount DOE considers
significant. Under TSL 7, the NPV of
consumer benefit would be ¥$44.98
billion, using a discount rate of 7
percent, and ¥$45.12 billion, using a
discount rate of 3 percent.
The cumulative emissions reductions
at TSL 7 are 772 Mt of CO2, 640
thousand tons of NOX, and 1.160 ton of
Hg. The estimated monetary value of the
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cumulative CO2 emissions reductions at
TSL 7 ranges from $3.93 billion to $65.1
billion. Total generating capacity in
2045 is estimated to decrease by 35.6
GW under TSL 7.
At TSL 7, the average LCC impact is
a savings (LCC decrease) of $198 for
non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and a cost (LCC
increase) of $181 in the southern region;
a savings of $585 for mobile home gas
furnaces in the northern region and a
savings of $391 in the southern region;
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and a savings of $272 for oil-fired
furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the average consumer LCC impact
is a cost of $1,343 in the rest of country,
a cost of $797 in the hot-humid region,
and a cost of $1,182 in the hot-dry
region. For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the average LCC impact is
a cost of $903 in the rest of country, a
cost of $130 in the hot-humid region,
and a cost of $311 in the hot-dry region.
For split-system heat pumps, the
average LCC impact is a cost of $604 in
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the rest of country, a savings of $103 in
the hot-humid region, and a savings of
$477 in the hot-dry region. For singlepackage air conditioners, the average
LCC impact is a cost of $492. For singlepackage heat pumps, the average LCC
impact is a cost of $363. For SDHV air
conditioners, the average LCC impact is
a cost of $294 in the rest of country, a
cost of $25 in the hot-humid region, and
a cost of $106 in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 7, the median payback period
for non-weatherized gas furnaces is 17.1
years in the northern region and 28.9
years in the southern region; 11.5 years
for mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and 13 years in the
southern region; and 18.2 years for oilfired furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the median payback period is 100
years in the rest of country, 47 years in
the hot-humid region, and 71 years in
the hot-dry region. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the median
payback period is 100 years in the rest
of country, 21 years in the hot-humid
region, and 31 years in the hot-dry
region. For split-system heat pumps, the
median payback period is 33 years in
the rest of country, 13 years in the hothumid region, and 9 years in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the median payback
period is 46 years. For single-package
heat pumps, the median payback period
is 21 years. For SDHV air conditioners,
the median payback period is 75 years
in the rest of country, 17 years in the
hot-humid region, and 23 years in the
hot-dry region.
At TSL 7, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 41
percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and 27
percent in the southern region; 46
percent for mobile home gas furnaces in
the northern region and 45 percent in
the southern region; and 48 percent for
oil-fired furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit at TSL 7 is
1 percent in the rest of country, 10
percent in the hot-humid region, and 9
percent in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem air conditioners (blower-coil),
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 3 percent in the rest
of country, 29 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 23 percent in the hot-dry
region. For split-system heat pumps, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC benefit is 13 percent in the rest of
country, 40 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 49 percent in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 16
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percent. For single-package heat pumps,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 21 percent. For SDHV
air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 8 percent in the rest of country, 33
percent in the hot-humid region, and 26
percent in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 7, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 59 percent
for non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and 72 percent in the
southern region; 46 percent for mobile
home gas furnaces in the northern
region and 51 percent in the southern
region; and 51 percent for oil-fired
furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 99 percent
in the rest of country, 90 percent in the
hot-humid region, and 91 percent in the
hot-dry region. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 96 percent in the rest of country, 70
percent in the hot-humid region, and 76
percent in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem heat pumps, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
87 percent in the rest of country, 60
percent in the hot-humid region, and 51
percent in the hot-dry region. For singlepackage air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
84 percent. For single-package heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 79 percent.
For SDHV air conditioners, the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 92 percent in the rest of country, 67
percent in the hot-humid region, and 74
percent in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 7, the projected change in
INPV ranges from a decrease of $1,530
million to a decrease of $3,820 million.
At TSL 7, DOE recognizes the risk of
large negative impacts if manufacturers’
expectations concerning reduced profit
margins are realized. If the high end of
the range of impacts is reached as DOE
expects, TSL 7 could result in a net loss
of 45.0 percent in INPV to furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers.
The Secretary concludes that at TSL
7 for furnace, central air conditioner,
and heat pump energy efficiency, the
benefits of energy savings, generating
capacity reductions, emission
reductions, and the estimated monetary
value of the CO2 emissions reductions
would be outweighed by the negative
NPV of consumer benefits, the economic
burden on a significant fraction of
consumers due to the large increases in
product cost, and the capital conversion
costs and profit margin impacts that
could result in a very large reduction in
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INPV for the manufacturers.
Consequently, the Secretary has
concluded that TSL 7 is not
economically justified.
DOE then considered TSL 6. TSL 6
would save 5.91 quads of energy, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Under TSL 6, the NPV of consumer
benefit would be ¥$2.56 billion, using
a discount rate of 7 percent, and $8.18
billion, using a discount rate of 3
percent.
The cumulative emissions reductions
at TSL 6 are 200 Mt of CO2, 168
thousand tons of NOX, and 0.270 ton of
Hg. The estimated monetary value of the
cumulative CO2 emissions reductions at
TSL 6 ranges from $0.987 billion to
$16.2 billion. Total generating capacity
in 2045 is estimated to decrease by 10.5
GW under TSL 6.
At TSL 6, the average LCC impact is
a savings (LCC decrease) of $323 for
non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and not applicable in
the south, a savings of $585 for mobile
home gas furnaces in the northern
region and not applicable in the south,
and a cost of $18 for oil-fired furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the average LCC impact is a cost
of $26 in the rest of country, a cost of
$303 in the hot-humid region, and a cost
of $468 in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem air conditioners (blower-coil),
the average LCC impact is a cost of $30
in the rest of country, a savings of $177
in the hot-humid region, and a savings
of $196 in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem heat pumps, the average LCC
impact is a cost of $89 in the rest of
country, a savings of $137 in the hothumid region, and a savings of $274 in
the hot-dry region. For single-package
air conditioners, the average LCC impact
is a cost of $68. For single-package heat
pumps the average LCC impact is a
savings of $15. For SDHV air
conditioners, the average LCC impact is
a cost of $202 in the rest of country, a
cost of $14 in the hot-humid region, and
a cost of $65 in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 6, the median payback period
is 9.4 years for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and not
applicable in the south; 11.5 years for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and not applicable in
the south; and 19.8 years for oil-fired
furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the median payback period is 33
years in the rest of country, 34 years in
the hot-humid region, and 49 years in
the hot-dry region. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the median
payback period is 28 years in the rest of
country, 8 years in the hot-humid
region, and 11 years in the hot-dry
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region. For split-system heat pumps, the
median payback period is 20 years in
the rest of country, 7 years in the hothumid region, and 5 years in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the median payback
period is 24 years. For single-package
heat pumps, the median payback period
is 14 years. For SDHV air conditioners,
the median payback period is 74 years
in the rest of country, 18 years in the
hot-humid region, and 26 years in the
hot-dry region.
At TSL 6, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 54
percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south; 46 percent for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south; and 33 percent for oil-fired
furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 16
percent in the rest of country, 12
percent in the hot-humid region, and 9
percent in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem air conditioners (blower-coil),
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 12 percent in the rest
of country, 39 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 31 percent in the hot-dry
region. For split-system heat pumps, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC benefit is 19 percent in the rest of
country, 48 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 52 percent in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 27
percent. For single-package heat pumps,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 35 percent. For SDHV
air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 5 percent in the rest of country, 32
percent in the hot-humid region, and 26
percent in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 6, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 23 percent
for non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south; 46 percent for mobile home gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south; and 35 percent for
oil-fired furnaces.
For split-system air conditioners (coilonly), the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 56 percent
in the rest of country, 73 percent in the
hot-humid region, and 75 percent in the
hot-dry region. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 43 percent in the rest of country, 25
percent in the hot-humid region, and 33
percent in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem heat pumps, the fraction of
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consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
58 percent in the rest of country, 29
percent in the hot-humid region, and 25
percent in the hot-dry region. For singlepackage air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
72 percent. For single-package heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 63 percent.
For SDHV air conditioners, the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 95 percent in the rest of country, 68
percent in the hot-humid region, and 74
percent in the hot-dry region.
At TSL 6, the projected change in
INPV ranges from a decrease of $680
million to a decrease of $1,873 million.
At TSL 6, DOE recognizes the risk of
negative impacts if manufacturers’
expectations concerning reduced profit
margins are realized. If the high end of
the range of impacts is reached as DOE
expects, TSL 6 could result in a net loss
of 22.0 percent in INPV to furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers.
The Secretary concludes that at TSL
6 for furnace and central air conditioner
and heat pump energy efficiency, the
benefits of energy savings, generating
capacity reductions, emission
reductions, and the estimated monetary
value of the CO2 emissions reductions
would be outweighed by the negative
NPV of consumer benefits, the economic
burden on a significant fraction of
consumers due to the increases in
installed product cost, and the capital
conversion costs and profit margin
impacts that could result in a very large
reduction in INPV for the
manufacturers. Consequently, the
Secretary has concluded that TSL 6 is
not economically justified.
As discussed above, DOE calculated a
range of results for national energy
savings and NPV of consumer benefit
under TSL 4. Because the range of
results for TSL 4 overlaps with the
results for TSL 5, and because TSLs 4
and 5 are similar in many aspects, DOE
discusses the benefits and burdens of
TSLs 4 and 5 together below.
TSL 5 would save 3.98 quads of
energy, an amount DOE considers
significant. TSL 4 would save 3.20 to
4.22 quads of energy, an amount DOE
considers significant. Under TSL 5, the
NPV of consumer benefit would be
$3.47 billion, using a discount rate of 7
percent, and $15.69 billion, using a
discount rate of 3 percent. Under TSL 4,
the NPV of consumer benefit would be
$3.93 billion to $4.21 billion, using a
discount rate of 7 percent, and $14.73
billion to $17.55 billion, using a
discount rate of 3 percent.
The cumulative emissions reductions
at TSL 5 are 116 Mt of CO2, 102
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thousand tons of NOX, and 0.059 ton of
Hg. The cumulative emissions
reductions at TSL 4 are 105 to 134 Mt
of CO2, 90.1 to 117 thousand tons of
NOX, and 0.097 to 0.071 ton of Hg. The
estimated monetary value of the
cumulative CO2 emissions reductions at
TSL 5 ranges from $0.596 billion to
$9.90 billion. The estimated monetary
value of the cumulative CO2 emissions
reductions at TSL 4 ranges from $0.530
billion to $11.0 billion. Total generating
capacity in 2045 is estimated to
decrease by 3.56 GW under TSL 5, and
by 3.81 to 3.69 GW under TSL 4.
At TSL 5, the average LCC impact is
a savings (LCC decrease) of $323 for
non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and not applicable in
the south; a savings of $585 for mobile
home gas furnaces in the northern
region and not applicable in the south;
and a cost of $18 for oil-fired furnaces.
At TSL 4, the average LCC impact is a
savings of $155 for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and not
applicable in the south, a savings of
$419 for mobile home gas furnaces in
the northern region and not applicable
in the south, and a savings of $15 for
oil-fired furnaces.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, the average LCC impacts for
TSL 5 and TSL 4 are the same. For splitsystem air conditioners (coil-only), the
average LCC impact is not applicable in
the rest of country, but is a savings of
$93 in the hot-humid region, and a
savings of $107 in the hot-dry region.
For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the average LCC impact is
not applicable in the rest of country, but
is a savings of $89 in the hot-humid
region, and a savings of $101 in the hotdry region. For split-system heat pumps,
the average LCC impact is a savings of
$4 in the rest of country, a savings of
$102 in the hot-humid region, and a
savings of $175 in the hot-dry region.
For single-package air conditioners, the
average LCC impact is a cost of $37. For
single-package heat pumps, the average
LCC impact is a cost of $104. For SDHV
air conditioners, the average LCC impact
is not applicable for all regions.
At TSL 5, the median payback period
is 9.4 years for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and not
applicable in the south, 11.5 years for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and not applicable in
the south, and 19.8 years for oil-fired
furnaces. At TSL 4, the median payback
period is 10.1 years for non-weatherized
gas furnaces in the northern region and
not applicable in the south, 10.7 years
for mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and not applicable in
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the south, and 1.0 year for oil-fired
furnaces.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, the median payback periods for
TSL 5 and TSL 4 are the same. For splitsystem air conditioners (coil-only), the
median payback period is not applicable
in the rest of country, 7 years in the hothumid region, and 10 years in the hotdry region. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the median
payback period is not applicable in the
rest of country, 8 years in the hot-humid
region, and 11 years in the hot-dry
region. For split-system heat pumps, the
median payback period is 13 years in
the rest of country, 6 years in the hothumid region, and 5 years in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the median payback
period is 15 years. For single-package
heat pumps, the median payback period
is 8 years. For SDHV air conditioners,
the median payback period is not
applicable in all regions.
At TSL 5, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 54
percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south, 46 percent for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south, and 33 percent for oil-fired
furnaces. At TSL 4, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 19 percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south, 47 percent for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south, and 32 percent for oil-fired
furnaces.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, at TSL 5 and at TSL 4, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC benefit is the same. For splitsystem air conditioners (coil-only), the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC benefit is 0 percent in the rest of
country, 46 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 36 percent in the hot-dry
region. For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 0 percent
in the rest of country, 34 percent in the
hot-humid region, and 27 percent in the
hot-dry region. For split-system heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 20
percent in the rest of country, 38
percent in the hot-humid region, and 40
percent in the hot-dry region. For singlepackage air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 33 percent. For single-package heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 35
percent. For SDHV air conditioners, no
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consumers experience an LCC benefit in
any of the regions.
At TSL 5, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 23 percent
for non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south, 46 percent for mobile home gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south, and 35 percent for
oil-fired furnaces. At TSL 4, the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 10 percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces in the northern region and 0
percent in the south, 44 percent for
mobile home gas furnaces in the
northern region and 0 percent in the
south, and 10 percent for oil-fired
furnaces.
For central air conditioners and heat
pumps, at TSL 5 and at TSL 4, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is the same. For split-system
air conditioners (coil-only), the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC cost
is 0 percent in the rest of country, 26
percent in the hot-humid region, and 37
percent in the hot-dry region. For splitsystem air conditioners (blower-coil),
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC cost is 0 percent in the rest of
country, 21 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 28 percent in the hot-dry
region. For split-system heat pumps, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 35 percent in the rest of
country, 17 percent in the hot-humid
region, and 15 percent in the hot-dry
region. For single-package air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 37 percent.
For single-package heat pumps, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 29 percent. For SDHV air
conditioners, no consumers experience
an LCC cost in any of the regions.
At TSL 5, the projected change in
INPV ranges from a decrease of $508
million to a decrease of $915 million. At
TSL 5, DOE recognizes the risk of
negative impacts if manufacturers’
expectations concerning reduced profit
margins are realized. If the high end of
the range of impacts is reached as DOE
expects, TSL 5 could result in a net loss
of 10.8 percent in INPV to furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers. At TSL 4, the projected
change in INPV ranges from a net loss
of $478 million to a net loss of $900
million. At TSL 4, DOE recognizes the
risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations concerning
reduced profit margins are realized. If
the high end of the range of impacts is
reached as DOE expects, TSL 4 could
result in a net loss of 10.6 percent in
INPV to furnace, central air conditioner,
and heat pump manufacturers.
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The Secretary concludes that at TSL
5 for furnace and central air conditioner
and heat pump energy efficiency, the
benefits of energy savings, positive NPV
of consumer benefits, generating
capacity reductions, emission
reductions, and the estimated monetary
value of the CO2 emissions reductions
are outweighed by the economic burden
on some consumers due to large
increases in installed cost, and the
capital conversion costs and profit
margin impacts that could result in a
large reduction in INPV for the
manufacturers. Consequently, the
Secretary has concluded that TSL 5 is
not economically justified.
The Secretary concludes that at TSL
4 for furnace and central air conditioner
and heat pump energy efficiency, the
benefits of energy savings, positive NPV
of consumer benefits, generating
capacity reductions, emission
reductions, and the estimated monetary
value of the CO2 emissions reductions
would outweigh the economic burden
on some consumers due to increases in
installed cost, and the capital
conversion costs and profit margin
impacts that could result in a moderate
reduction in INPV for the
manufacturers. TSL 4 may yield greater
cumulative energy savings than TSL 5,
and also a higher NPV of consumer
benefits at both 3-percent and 7-percent
discount rates.
In addition, the efficiency levels in
TSL 4 correspond to the recommended
levels in the consensus agreement,
which DOE believes sets forth a
statement by interested persons that are
fairly representative of relevant points
of view (including representatives of
manufacturers of covered products,
States, and efficiency advocates) and
contains recommendations with respect
to an energy conservation standard that
are in accordance with 42 U.S.C.
6295(o). Moreover, DOE has encouraged
the submission of consensus agreements
as a way to get diverse stakeholders
together, to develop an independent and
probative analysis useful in DOE
standard setting, and to expedite the
rulemaking process. In the present case,
one outcome of the consensus
agreement was a recommendation to
accelerate the compliance dates for
these products, which would have the
effect of producing additional energy
savings at an earlier date. DOE also
believes that standard levels
recommended in the consensus
agreement may increase the likelihood
for regulatory compliance, while
decreasing the risk of litigation.
After considering the analysis,
comments to the furnaces RAP and the
preliminary TSD for central air
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conditioners and heat pumps, and the
benefits and burdens of TSL 4, the
Secretary has concluded that this trial
standard level offers the maximum
improvement in efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps, expressed in terms of
minimum energy efficiency, are shown
in Table V.55.
economically justified, and will result
in significant conservation of energy.
Therefore, DOE today adopts TSL 4 for
furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. Today’s amended
energy conservation standards for
TABLE V.55—AMENDED STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Product class
Northern region ** standards
National standards
Residential Furnaces *
Non-weatherized gas .......................................................
Mobile home gas ..............................................................
Non-weatherized oil-fired .................................................
Weatherized gas ..............................................................
Mobile home oil-fired ‡ ‡ ....................................................
Weatherized oil-fired ‡ ‡ ....................................................
Electric ‡ ‡ ..........................................................................
Product class
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
80%
80%
83%
81%
75%
78%
78%
National standards
....................................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................
....................................................................
Southeastern region ††
standards
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
AFUE
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
90%
90%
83%
81%
75%
78%
78%
Southwestern region ‡ standards
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps †
Split-system air conditioners .............................
SEER = 13 ................
SEER = 14 ................
Split-system heat pumps ..................................
SEER = 14 ................
HSPF = 8.2 ...............
SEER = 14 ................
SEER = 14 ................
HSPF = 8.2 ...............
SEER = 14 ................
SEER = 14
HSPF = 8.0
SEER = 13
HSPF = 7.7
SEER = 12
SEER = 14
HSPF = 8.0
SEER = 13
HSPF = 7.7
SEER = 12
Single-package air conditioners ‡ ‡ ...................
Single-package heat pumps .............................
Small-duct, high-velocity systems ....................
Space-constrained
products—air
conditioners ‡‡.
Space-constrained products—heat pumps ‡‡ ...
................
...............
................
...............
................
SEER = 12 ................
HSPF = 7.4 ...............
................
...............
................
...............
................
SEER = 12 ................
HSPF = 7.4 ...............
SEER = 14
EER = 12.2 (for units with a rated cooling capacity less than 45,000 Btu/h)
EER = 11.7 (for units with a rated cooling capacity equal to or greater than 45,000 Btu/
h).
SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.2.
SEER = 14.
EER = 11.0.
SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.0.
SEER = 13.
HSPF = 7.7.
SEER = 12.
SEER = 12.
HSPF = 7.4.
* AFUE is Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency.
** The Northern region for furnaces contains the following States: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
† SEER is Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio; EER is Energy Efficiency Ratio; HSPF is Heating Seasonal Performance Factor; and Btu/h is
British Thermal Units per hour.
† † The Southeastern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the following States: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,
Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and
the District of Columbia.
‡The Southwestern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the States of Arizona, California, Nevada, and New Mexico.
DOE is not amending energy conservation standards for these product classes in this direct final rule.
2. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs
Considered for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby
Mode and Off Mode Power
impacts estimated for each TSL
considered for furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump standby
mode and off mode power. The
efficiency levels contained in each TSL
are described in section V.A.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Table V.56 through Table V.58
present a summary of the quantitative
TABLE V.56—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS: NATIONAL IMPACTS
Category
TSL 1
TSL 2
National Energy Savings (quads) .......................................................................................
NPV of Consumer Benefits (2009$ billion)
3% discount rate ..........................................................................................................
7% discount rate ..........................................................................................................
0.153 ................
0.16 ..................
0.186.
1.14 ..................
0.371 ................
1.18 ..................
0.373 ................
1.01.
0.235.
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TSL 3
37534
Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE V.56—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS: NATIONAL IMPACTS—Continued
Category
TSL 1
Cumulative Emissions Reduction
CO2 (million metric tons) .............................................................................................
NOX (thousand tons) ...................................................................................................
Hg (ton) ........................................................................................................................
Value of Emissions Reductions
CO2 (2009$ million)* ....................................................................................................
NOX—3% discount rate (2009$ million) ......................................................................
NOX—7% discount rate (2009$ million) ......................................................................
Generation Capacity Reduction (GW) ** .....................................................................
Employment Impacts
Total Potential Change in Domestic Production Workers in 2016 (thousands) ..
Indirect Domestic Jobs (thousands) ** ........................................................................
TSL 2
TSL 3
8.23 ..................
6.60 ..................
0.056 ................
8.73 ..................
7.00 ..................
0.072 ................
10.1.
8.11.
0.079.
41.7 to 694 .......
2.07 to 21.3 ......
0.793 to 8.15 ....
0.103 ................
44.3 to 738 .......
2.20 to 22.6 ......
0.841 to 8.65 ....
0.110 ................
51.7 to 862.
2.56 to 26.3.
0.975 to 10.0.
0.127.
negligible ..........
0.8 ....................
negligible ..........
0.86 ..................
negligible.
1.02.
Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values.
* Range of the value of CO2 reductions is based on estimates of the global benefit of reduced CO2 emissions.
** Changes in 2045.
TABLE V.57—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS: MANUFACTURER AND CONSUMER IMPACTS
Category
TSL 1
Manufacturer Impacts
Change in Industry NPV (2009$ million) .....................................................................
Industry NPV (% change) ............................................................................................
Consumer Mean LCC Savings* (2009$)
Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces .................................................................................
Mobile Home Gas Furnaces .......................................................................................
Oil-Fired Furnaces .......................................................................................................
Electric Furnaces .........................................................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (coil-only) .....................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (blower-coil) .................................................................
Split-System Heat Pumps ...........................................................................................
Single-Package Air Conditioners .................................................................................
Single-Package Heat Pumps ......................................................................................
SDHV Air Conditioners ................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Air Conditioners ...........................................................................
Space-Constrained Heat Pumps .................................................................................
Consumer Median PBP (years)
Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces .................................................................................
Mobile Home Gas Furnaces .......................................................................................
Oil-Fired Furnaces .......................................................................................................
Electric Furnaces .........................................................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (coil-only) .....................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (blower-coil) .................................................................
Split-System Heat Pumps ...........................................................................................
Single-Package Air Conditioners .................................................................................
Single-Package Heat Pumps ......................................................................................
SDHV Air Conditioners ................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Air Conditioners ...........................................................................
Space-Constrained Heat Pumps .................................................................................
TSL 2
TSL 3
4 to (253)
.05 to (2.91)
5 to (253)
.06 to (2.91)
23 to (255)
0.26 to (2.93)
2
0
1
0
84
84
9
84
9
84
84
9
2
0
1
0
84
40
9
41
9
37
42
9
0
(1)
1
(1)
84
35
(1)
36
(1)
32
37
(1)
11
12
8
10
1
1
4
1
4
1
1
4
11
12
8
10
1
6
4
6
4
7
6
4
16
18
12
16
1
7
5
7
5
7
7
5
* Parentheses indicate negative (-) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
TABLE V.58—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS: DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMER IMPACTS
Category
TSL 1
TSL 2
TSL 3
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Distribution of Consumer LCC Impacts
Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Mobile Home Gas Furnaces
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Oil-Fired Furnaces
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
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9
72
18
9
72
18
17
72
11
6
91
4
6
91
4
8
91
2
1
1
4
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37535
TABLE V.58—SUMMARY OF RESULTS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND
OFF MODE POWER TSLS: DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMER IMPACTS—Continued
Category
TSL 1
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Electric Furnaces
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (coil-only)
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Split-System Air Conditioners (blower-coil)
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Split-System Heat Pumps
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Single-Package Air Conditioners
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Single-Package Heat Pumps
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
SDHV Air Conditioners
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Air Conditioners
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
Space-Constrained Heat Pumps
Net Cost (%) .......................................................................................................
No Impact (%) ....................................................................................................
Net Benefit (%) ...................................................................................................
TSL 2
TSL 3
91
8
91
8
91
6
4
90
5
4
90
5
7
90
3
0
94
6
0
94
6
0
94
6
0
94
6
3
91
6
3
91
6
0
67
33
0
67
33
19
57
24
0
94
6
3
91
6
3
91
6
0
66
34
0
66
34
19
57
24
0
94
6
3
91
6
3
91
6
0
94
6
3
91
6
3
91
6
0
67
33
0
67
33
19
58
23
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
Values in the table are rounded off, and thus, sums may not equal 100 percent in all cases.
DOE first considered TSL 3, which
represents the max-tech efficiency
levels. TSL 3 would save 0.186 quads of
energy, an amount DOE considers
significant. Under TSL 3, the NPV of
consumer benefit would be $0.235
billion, using a discount rate of 7
percent, and $1.01 billion, using a
discount rate of 3 percent.
The cumulative emissions reductions
at TSL 3 are 10.1 Mt of CO2, 8.11
thousand tons of NOX, and 0.079 ton of
Hg. The estimated monetary value of the
cumulative CO2 emissions reductions at
TSL 3 ranges from $51.7 million to $862
million. Total generating capacity in
2045 is estimated to decrease by 0.127
GW under TSL 3.
At TSL 3, the average LCC impact is
a cost (LCC increase) of $0 for nonweatherized gas furnaces, a cost of $1
for mobile home gas furnaces, a savings
of $1 for oil-fired furnaces, and a cost of
$1 for electric furnaces. For split-system
air conditioners (coil-only), the average
LCC impact is a savings (LCC decrease)
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of $84. For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the average LCC impact is
a savings of $35. For split-system heat
pumps, the average LCC impact is a cost
of $1. For single-package air
conditioners, the average LCC impact is
a savings of $36. For single-package heat
pumps, the average LCC impact is a cost
of $1. For SDHV air conditioners, the
average LCC impact is a savings of $32.
For space-constrained air conditioners,
the average LCC impact is a savings of
$37. For space-constrained heat pumps,
the average LCC impact is a cost of $1.
At TSL 3, the median payback period
is 16 years for non-weatherized gas
furnaces; 18 years for mobile home gas
furnaces; 12 years for oil-fired furnaces;
and 16 years for electric furnaces. For
split-system air conditioners (coil-only),
the median payback period is 1 year.
For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the median payback
period is 7 years. For split-system heat
pumps, the median payback period is 5
years. For single-package air
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conditioners, the median payback
period is 7 years. For single-package
heat pumps, the median payback period
is 5 years. For SDHV air conditioners,
the median payback period is 7 years.
For space-constrained air conditioners,
the median payback period is 7 years.
For space-constrained heat pumps, the
median payback period is 5 years.
At TSL 3, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 11
percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces, 2 percent for mobile home gas
furnaces, 6 percent for oil-fired
furnaces, and 3 percent for electric
furnaces. For split-system air
conditioners (coil-only), the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 6 percent. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC
benefit is 6 percent. For split-system
heat pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 24
percent. For single-package air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
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37536
Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
experiencing an LCC benefit is 6
percent. For single-package heat pumps,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 24 percent. For SDHV
air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 6 percent. For space-constrained air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 6
percent. For space-constrained heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 23
percent.
At TSL 3, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 17 percent
for non-weatherized gas furnaces, 8
percent for mobile home gas furnaces, 4
percent for oil-fired furnaces, and 7
percent for electric furnaces. For splitsystem air conditioners (coil-only), the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 0 percent. For split-system
air conditioners (blower-coil), the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For split-system
heat pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 19 percent.
For single-package air conditioners, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For singlepackage heat pumps, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
19 percent. For SDHV air conditioners,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC cost is 3 percent. For spaceconstrained air conditioners, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For spaceconstrained heat pumps, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
19 percent.
At TSL 3, the projected change in
INPV ranges from an increase of $23
million to a decrease of $255 million.
The model anticipates impacts on INPV
to range from 0.26 percent to -2.93
percent. In general, the cost of standby
mode and off mode features is not
expected to significantly affect
manufacturer profit margins for furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
products.
The Secretary concludes that at TSL
3 for furnace and central air conditioner
and heat pump standby mode and off
mode power, the benefits of energy
savings, positive NPV of consumer
benefits at 3-percent discount rate,
generating capacity reductions,
emission reductions, and the estimated
monetary value of the CO2 emissions
reductions would be outweighed by the
negative NPV of consumer benefits at 7
percent and the economic burden on
some consumers due to the increases in
product cost. Of the consumers of
furnaces and heat pumps who would be
impacted, many more would be
burdened by standards at TSL 3 than
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would benefit. Consequently, the
Secretary has concluded that TSL 3 is
not economically justified.
DOE then considered TSL 2. TSL 2
would save 0.16 quads of energy, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Under TSL 2, the NPV of consumer
benefit would be $0.373 billion, using a
discount rate of 7 percent, and $1.18
billion, using a discount rate of 3
percent.
The cumulative emissions reductions
at TSL 2 are 8.73 Mt of CO2, 7.00
thousand tons of NOX, and 0.072 tons of
Hg. The estimated monetary value of the
cumulative CO2 emissions reductions at
TSL 2 ranges from $44.3 million to $738
million. Total generating capacity in
2045 is estimated to decrease by 0.11
GW under TSL 2.
At TSL 2, the average LCC impact is
a savings (LCC decrease) of $2 for nonweatherized gas furnaces, a savings of
$0 for mobile home gas furnaces, a
savings of $1 for oil-fired furnaces, and
a savings of $0 for electric furnaces. For
split-system air conditioners (coil-only),
the average LCC impact is a savings of
$84. For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the average LCC impact is
a savings of $40. For split-system heat
pumps, the average LCC impact is a
savings of $9. For single-package air
conditioners, the average LCC impact is
a savings of $41. For single-package heat
pumps, the average LCC impact is a
savings of $9. For SDHV air
conditioners, the average LCC impact is
a savings of $37. For space-constrained
air conditioners, the average LCC impact
is a savings of $42. For spaceconstrained heat pumps, the average
LCC impact is a savings of $9.
At TSL 2, the median payback period
is 11 years for non-weatherized gas
furnaces; 12 years for mobile home gas
furnaces; 8 years for oil-fired furnaces;
and 10 years for electric furnaces. For
split-system air conditioners (coil-only),
the median payback period is 1 year.
For split-system air conditioners
(blower-coil), the median payback
period is 6 years. For split-system heat
pumps, the median payback period is 4
years. For single-package air
conditioners, the median payback
period is 6 years. For single-package
heat pumps, the median payback period
is 4 years. For SDHV air conditioners,
the median payback period is 7 years.
For space-constrained air conditioners,
the median payback period is 6 years.
For space-constrained heat pumps, the
median payback period is 4 years.
At TSL 2, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 18
percent for non-weatherized gas
furnaces, 4 percent for mobile home gas
furnaces, 8 percent for oil-fired
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furnaces, and 5 percent for electric
furnaces. For split-system air
conditioners (coil-only), the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 6 percent. For split-system air
conditioners (blower-coil), the fraction
of consumers experiencing an LCC
benefit is 6 percent. For split-system
heat pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 33
percent. For single-package air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 6
percent. For single-package heat pumps,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC benefit is 34 percent. For SDHV
air conditioners, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC benefit
is 6 percent. For space-constrained air
conditioners, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 6
percent. For space-constrained heat
pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC benefit is 33
percent.
At TSL 2, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 9 percent
for non-weatherized gas furnaces, 6
percent for mobile home gas furnaces, 1
percent for oil-fired furnaces, and 4
percent for electric furnaces. For split
system air conditioners (coil-only), the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 0 percent. For split-system
air conditioners (blower-coil), the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For split-system
heat pumps, the fraction of consumers
experiencing an LCC cost is 0 percent.
For single-package air conditioners, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For singlepackage heat pumps, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
0 percent. For SDHV air conditioners,
the fraction of consumers experiencing
an LCC cost is 3 percent. For spaceconstrained air conditioners, the
fraction of consumers experiencing an
LCC cost is 3 percent. For spaceconstrained heat pumps, the fraction of
consumers experiencing an LCC cost is
0 percent.
At TSL 2, the projected change in
INPV ranges from an increase of $5
million to a decrease of $253 million.
The modeled impacts on INPV range
from 0.06 percent to 2.91 percent. In
general, the incremental cost of standby
mode and off mode features are not
expected to significantly affect INPV for
the furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump industry at this level.
The Secretary concludes that at TSL
2 for furnace, central air conditioner,
and heat pump standby mode and off
mode power, the benefits of energy
savings, positive NPV of consumer
benefits at both 7-percent and 3-percent
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discount rates, generating capacity
reductions, emission reductions, and
the estimated monetary value of the CO2
emissions reductions would outweigh
the economic burden on a small fraction
of consumers due to the increases in
product cost. With the exception of
consumers of mobile home gas furnaces
(whose mean LCC impact is zero), the
majority of the consumers that would be
affected by standards at TSL 2 would
see an LCC benefit. Consequently, the
Secretary has concluded that TSL 2 is
economically justified.
After considering the analysis and the
benefits and burdens of TSL 2, the
Secretary has concluded that this trial
standard level offers the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
37537
economically justified, and will result
in the significant conservation of
energy. Therefore, DOE today adopts
TSL 2 for furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump standby
mode and off mode. Today’s amended
energy conservation standards for
standby mode and off mode, expressed
as maximum power in watts, are shown
in Table V.59.
TABLE V.59—STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF
MODE *
Standby mode and off
mode standard levels
Product class
Residential Furnaces **
Non-Weatherized Gas ....................................................................................................................................................
Mobile Home Gas ...........................................................................................................................................................
Non-Weatherized Oil-Fired .............................................................................................................................................
Mobile Home Oil-Fired ....................................................................................................................................................
Electric ............................................................................................................................................................................
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps †
Product class
Off mode standard levels †
Split-system air conditioners ...........................................................................................................................................
Split-system heat pumps ................................................................................................................................................
Single-package air conditioners .....................................................................................................................................
Single-package heat pumps ...........................................................................................................................................
Small-duct, high-velocity systems ..................................................................................................................................
Space-constrained air conditioners ................................................................................................................................
Space-constrained heat pumps ......................................................................................................................................
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
PW,OFF
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
30 watts.
33 watts.
30 watts.
33watts.
30 watts.
30 watts.
33 watts.
* PW,SB is standby mode electrical power consumption, and PW,OFF is off mode electrical power consumption for furnaces.
** Standby mode and off mode energy consumption for weatherized gas and oil-fired furnaces is regulated as a part of single-package air conditioners and heat pumps, as discussed in section III.E.1.
†P
W,OFF is off mode electrical power consumption for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
‡ DOE is not adopting a separate standby mode standard level for central air conditioners and heat pumps, because standby mode power consumption for these products is already regulated by SEER and HSPF.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
3. Annualized Benefits and Costs of
Standards for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy
Efficiency
The benefits and costs of the
standards in this rule can also be
expressed in terms of annualized values
over the analysis period. The
annualized monetary values are the sum
of: (1) The annualized national
economic value (expressed in 2009$) of
the benefits from operating products
that meet the standards (consisting
primarily of operating cost savings from
using less energy, minus increases in
equipment purchase costs, which is
another way of representing consumer
NPV); and (2) the monetary value of the
benefits of emission reductions,
including CO2 emission reductions.100
100 DOE used a two-step calculation process to
convert the time-series of costs and benefits into
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The value of the CO2 reductions,
otherwise known as the Social Cost of
Carbon (SCC), is calculated using a
range of values per metric ton of CO2
developed by a recent Federal
interagency process. The monetary costs
and benefits of cumulative emissions
reductions are reported in 2009$ to
annualized values. First, DOE calculated a present
value in 2011, the year used for discounting the
NPV of total consumer costs and savings, for the
time-series of costs and benefits using discount
rates of three and seven percent for all costs and
benefits except for the value of CO2 reductions. For
the latter, DOE used a range of discount rates, as
shown in Table I.3. From the present value, DOE
then calculated the fixed annual payment over a 32year period, starting in 2011, that yields the same
present value. The fixed annual payment is the
annualized value. Although DOE calculated
annualized values, this does not imply that the
time-series of cost and benefits from which the
annualized values were determined would be a
steady stream of payments.
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permit comparisons with the other costs
and benefits in the same dollar units.
Although combining the values of
operating savings and CO2 reductions
provides a useful perspective, two
issues should be considered. First, the
national operating savings are domestic
U.S. consumer monetary savings that
occur as a result of market transactions,
while the value of CO2 reductions is
based on a global value. Second, the
assessments of operating cost savings
and CO2 savings are performed with
different methods that use quite
different time frames for analysis. The
national operating cost savings is
measured for the lifetime of products
shipped in 2013–2045 for furnaces and
2015–2045 for central air conditioners
and heat pumps. The SCC values, on the
other hand, reflect the present value of
future climate-related impacts resulting
from the emission of one metric ton of
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carbon dioxide in each year. These
impacts continue well beyond 2100.
Estimates of annualized benefits and
costs of the standards in this rule for
furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump energy efficiency are shown
in Table V.60. The results under the
primary estimate are as follows. Using a
7-percent discount rate and the SCC
value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$),
the cost of the energy efficiency
standards in today’s direct final rule is
$527 million to $773 million per year in
increased equipment installed costs,
while the annualized benefits are $837
million to $1106 million per year in
reduced equipment operating costs,
$140 million to $178 million in CO2
reductions, and $5.3 million to $6.9
million in reduced NOX emissions. In
this case, the net benefit amounts to
$456 million to $517 million per year.
DOE also calculated annualized net
benefits using a range of potential
electricity and equipment price trend
forecasts. Given the range of modeled
price trends, the range of net benefits
using a 7-percent discount rate is from
$295 million to $623 million per year.
The low estimate corresponds to a
scenario with a low electricity price
trend and a constant real price trend for
equipment. Using a 3-percent discount
rate and the SCC value of $22.1/metric
ton in 2010 (in 2009$), the cost of the
energy efficiency standards in today’s
direct final rule is $566 million to $825
million per year in increased equipment
installed costs, while the benefits are
$1289 million to $1686 million per year
in reduced operating costs, $140 million
to $178 million in CO2 reductions, and
$7.9 million to $10.2 million in reduced
NOX emissions. In this case, the net
benefit amounts to $871 million to
$1049 million per year. DOE also
calculated annualized net benefits using
a range of potential electricity and
equipment price trend forecasts. Given
the range of modeled price trends, the
range of net benefits using a 3-percent
discount rate is from $601 million to
$1,260 million per year. The low
estimate corresponds to a scenario with
a low electricity price trend and a
constant real price trend for equipment.
TABLE V.60—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS OF STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT
PUMP ENERGY EFFICIENCY (TSL 4)
Discount rate
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Primary estimate *
Low estimate *
High estimate *
723 to 959
1,083 to 1,422
34 to 43
141 to 178
225 to 285
428 to 543
5.3 to 7.0
7.9 to 10.3
762 to 1,509
869 to 1,144
1,232 to 1,611
1,125 to 1,975
955 to 1,258
1,493 to 1,948
34 to 43
140 to 178
224 to 284
427 to 541
5.3 to 6.9
7.9 to 10.2
994 to 1,805
1,100 to 1,442
1,641 to 2,136
1,535 to 2,499
574 to 840
630 to 916
555 to 819
599 to 876
188 to 669
295 to 305
601 to 695
494 to 1,059
438 to 986
545 to 623
1,042 to 1,260
935 to 1,623
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings ...................
.....................................................
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t ** ...............
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t ** .............
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t ** .............
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t ** .............
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton ** ......
Total† ........................................
7%
3%
5%
3%
2.5%
3%
7%
3%
7% plus CO2 range
7%
3%
3% plus CO2 range
837 to 1,106
1,289 to 1,686
34 to 43
140 to 178
224 to 284
427 to 541
5.3 to 6.9
7.9 to 10.2
876 to 1,653
983 to 1,290
1,437 to 1,874
1,330 to 2,237
Costs
Incremental Product Costs ..............
7%
3%
527 to 773
566 to 825
Net Benefits/Costs
Total †† ......................................
7% plus CO2 range
7%
3%
3% plus CO2 range
349 to 880
456 to 517
871 to 1,049
764 to 1,412
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013–2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015–2045 for the central air conditioner and heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects
constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices, and the high estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high
learning rate) for product prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
† The CO values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The val2
2
ues of $4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates, respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount
rate. The value for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
†† Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate, which is
$22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ‘‘7% plus CO2 range’’ and ‘‘3% plus CO2 range,’’ the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
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4. Annualized Benefits and Costs of
Standards for Furnace, Central Air
Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby
Mode and Off Mode Power
As explained in detail above, the
benefits and costs of the standards in
this rule for standby mode and off mode
power can also be expressed in terms of
annualized values. The annualized
monetary values are the sum of: (1) The
annualized national economic value
(expressed in 2009$) of the benefits
from operating products that meet the
standards (consisting primarily of
operating cost savings from using less
energy, minus increases in equipment
purchase costs, which is another way of
representing consumer NPV); and (2)
the monetary value of the benefits of
emission reductions, including CO2
emission reductions.
Estimates of annualized benefits and
costs of the standards in this rule for
furnace, central air conditioner, and
heat pump standby mode and off mode
power are shown in Table V.61. The
results under the primary estimate are
as follows. Using a 7-percent discount
rate and the SCC value of $22.1/ton in
2010 (in 2009$), the cost of the standby
mode and off mode standards in today’s
direct final rule is $16.4 million per year
in increased equipment costs, while the
annualized benefits are $46.5 million
per year in reduced equipment
operating costs, $12.4 million in CO2
reductions, and $0.4 million in reduced
NOX emissions. In this case, the net
benefit amounts to $42.8 million per
year. Using a 3-percent discount rate
and the SCC value of $22.1/ton in 2010
(in 2009$), the cost of the standby mode
and off mode standards in today’s direct
final rule is $19.1 million per year in
increased equipment costs, while the
benefits are $79.3 million per year in
reduced operating costs, $12.4 million
in CO2 reductions, and $0.6 million in
reduced NOX emissions. In this case, the
net benefit amounts to $73.2 million per
year.
TABLE V.61—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS OF STANDARDS FOR FURNACE, CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONER, AND HEAT
PUMP STANDBY MODE AND OFF MODE POWER (TSL 2)
Discount rate
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Primary estimate *
Low estimate *
High estimate *
40.4
67.9
2.9
12.4
19.9
37.6
0.4
0.6
43.6 to 78.4
53.1
80.9
71.4 to 106.2
52.8
90.8
2.9
12.4
19.9
37.6
0.4
0.6
56.1 to 90.8
65.5
103.8
94.3 to 129.1
15.2
17.6
17.7
20.6
28.5 to 63.2
38.0
63.3
53.8 to 88.5
38.4 to 73.1
47.9
83.2
73.7 to 108.5
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings ...................
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t ** ...............
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t ** .............
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t ** .............
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t ** .............
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton ** ......
Total † ........................................
7%
3%
5%
3%
2.5%
3%
7%
3%
7% plus CO2 range
7%
3%
3% plus CO2 range
46.5
79.3
2.9
12.4
19.9
37.6
0.4
0.6
49.7 to 84.5
59.2
92.3
82.8 to 117.5
Costs
Incremental Product Costs ..............
7%
3%
16.4
19.1
Net Benefits/Costs
Total † ........................................
7% plus CO2 range
7%
3%
3% plus CO2 range
33.3 to 68.1
42.8
73.2
63.7 to 98.4
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013–2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015–2045 for the central air conditioner and heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects
constant prices (no learning rate) for product prices, and the high estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high
learning rate) for product prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
†† The CO values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The val2
2
ues of $4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates, respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount
rate. The value for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE’s analysis.
†† Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate, which is
$22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ‘‘7% plus CO2 range’’ and ‘‘3% plus CO2 range,’’ the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
5. Certification Requirements
In today’s direct final rule, in addition
to proposing amended energy
conservation standards for the existing
AFUE levels (for furnaces) and SEER
and HSPF levels (for central air
conditioners and heat pumps), DOE is
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setting new requirements for standby
mode and off mode energy consumption
for residential furnaces and off mode
energy consumption for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
Additionally, DOE is adopting new
requirements for EER for States in the
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hot-dry, southwestern region for central
air conditioners. Because standby mode
and off mode for furnaces, off mode for
central air conditioners and heat pumps,
and EER for central air conditioners
have not previously been regulated,
DOE does not currently require
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certification for these metrics. DOE
notes, however, that determining
compliance with the standards in
today’s direct final rule will likely
require manufacturers to certify these
ratings (i.e., PW,OFF and PW,SB for
furnaces, PW,OFF for central air
conditioners and heat pumps, and EER
for central air conditioners sold in the
southwestern region (Arizona,
California, Nevada, and New Mexico)).
DOE has decided that it will address
these certification requirements in a
separate certification and enforcement
rulemaking, or in a rulemaking to
determine the enforcement mechanism
for regional standards.
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory
Review
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
and 13563
Section 1(b)(1) of Executive Order
12866, ‘‘Regulatory Planning and
Review,’’ 58 FR 51735 (Oct. 4, 1993),
requires each agency to identify the
problem that it intends to address,
including, where applicable, the failures
of private markets or public institutions
that warrant new agency action, as well
as to assess the significance of that
problem. The problems that the
standards in this rule address are as
follows:
(1) There is a lack of consumer
information and/or information
processing capability about energy
efficiency opportunities in the furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
market.
(2) There is asymmetric information
(one party to a transaction has more and
better information than the other) and/
or high transactions costs (costs of
gathering information and effecting
exchanges of goods and services).
(3) There are external benefits
resulting from improved energy
efficiency of furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps that are
not captured by the users of such
equipment. These benefits include
externalities related to environmental
protection and energy security that are
not reflected in energy prices, such as
reduced emissions of greenhouse gases.
In addition, DOE has determined that
today’s regulatory action is an
‘‘economically significant regulatory
action’’ under section 3(f)(1) of
Executive Order 12866. Accordingly,
section 6(a)(3) of the Executive Order
requires that DOE prepare a regulatory
impact analysis (RIA) on this rule and
that the Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) in the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB)
review this rule. DOE presented to OIRA
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for review the draft rule and other
documents prepared for this
rulemaking, including the RIA, and has
included these documents in the
rulemaking record. The assessments
prepared pursuant to Executive Order
12866 can be found in the technical
support document for this rulemaking.
They are available for public review in
the Resource Room of DOE’s Building
Technologies Program, 950 L’Enfant
Plaza, SW., Suite 600, Washington, DC
20024, (202) 586–2945, between 9 a.m.
and 4 p.m., Monday through Friday,
except Federal holidays.
DOE has also reviewed this regulation
pursuant to Executive Order 13563,
issued on January 18, 2011 (76 FR 3281,
Jan. 21, 2011). EO 13563 is
supplemental to and explicitly reaffirms
the principles, structures, and
definitions governing regulatory review
established in Executive Order 12866.
To the extent permitted by law, agencies
are required by Executive Order 13563
to: (1) Propose or adopt a regulation
only upon a reasoned determination
that its benefits justify its costs
(recognizing that some benefits and
costs are difficult to quantify); (2) tailor
regulations to impose the least burden
on society, consistent with obtaining
regulatory objectives, taking into
account, among other things, and to the
extent practicable, the costs of
cumulative regulations; (3) select, in
choosing among alternative regulatory
approaches, those approaches that
maximize net benefits (including
potential economic, environmental,
public health and safety, and other
advantages; distributive impacts; and
equity); (4) to the extent feasible, specify
performance objectives, rather than
specifying the behavior or manner of
compliance that regulated entities must
adopt; and (5) identify and assess
available alternatives to direct
regulation, including providing
economic incentives to encourage the
desired behavior, such as user fees or
marketable permits, or providing
information upon which choices can be
made by the public.
We emphasize as well that Executive
Order 13563 requires agencies ‘‘to use
the best available techniques to quantify
anticipated present and future benefits
and costs as accurately as possible.’’ In
its guidance, the Office of Information
and Regulatory Affairs has emphasized
that such techniques may include
‘‘identifying changing future
compliance costs that might result from
technological innovation or anticipated
behavioral changes.’’ For the reasons
stated in the preamble, DOE believes
that today’s direct final rule is
consistent with these principles,
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including that, to the extent permitted
by law, agencies adopt a regulation only
upon a reasoned determination that its
benefits justify its costs and select, in
choosing among alternative regulatory
approaches, those approaches that
maximize net benefits.
B. Review Under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.) requires preparation
of a final regulatory flexibility analysis
(FRFA) for any rule that by law must be
proposed for public comment, unless
the agency certifies that the rule, if
promulgated, will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. As required by
Executive Order 13272, ‘‘Proper
Consideration of Small Entities in
Agency Rulemaking’’ 67 FR 53461
(August 16, 2002), DOE published
procedures and policies on February 19,
2003, to ensure that the potential
impacts of its rules on small entities are
properly considered during the
rulemaking process. 68 FR 7990. DOE
has made its procedures and policies
available on the Office of the General
Counsel’s Web site (https://
www.gc.doe.gov).
DOE reviewed the standard levels
considered in today’s direct final rule
under the provisions of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act and the procedures and
policies published on February 19,
2003. 68 FR 7990. As a result of this
review, DOE prepared a FRFA in
support of the standards in this rule,
which DOE will transmit to the Chief
Counsel for Advocacy of the SBA for
review under 5 U.S.C 605(b). As
presented and discussed below, the
FRFA describes potential impacts on
small residential furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers associated with today’s
direct final rule and discusses
alternatives that could minimize these
impacts. A description of the reasons
why DOE is adopting the standards in
this rule and the objectives of and legal
basis for the rule are set forth elsewhere
in the preamble and not repeated here.
1. Description and Estimated Number of
Small Entities Regulated
For the manufacturers of residential
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps, the Small Business
Administration (SBA) has set a size
threshold, which defines those entities
classified as ‘‘small businesses’’ for the
purposes of the statute. DOE used the
SBA’s small business size standards to
determine whether any small entities
would be subject to the requirements of
the rule. 65 FR 30836, 30848 (May 15,
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2000), as amended at 65 FR 53533,
53544 (Sept. 5, 2000) and codified at 13
CFR part 121. The size standards are
listed by North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) code and
industry description and are available
at: https://www.sba.gov/idc/groups/
public/documents/sba_homepage/
serv_sstd_tablepdf.pdf. Residential
furnace and central air conditioning
(including heat pumps) manufacturing
is classified under NAICS 333415, ‘‘AirConditioning and Warm Air Heating
Equipment and Commercial and
Industrial Refrigeration Equipment
Manufacturing.’’ The SBA sets a
threshold of 750 employees or less for
an entity to be considered as a small
business for this category.
During its market survey, DOE used
all available public information to
identify potential small manufacturers.
DOE’s research involved industry trade
association membership directories
(including AHRI), public databases (e.g.,
AHRI Directory 101, the SBA
Database 102), individual company Web
sites, and market research tools (e.g.,
Dunn and Bradstreet reports 103 and
Hoovers reports 104) to create a list of
companies that manufacture or sell
products covered by this rulemaking.
DOE also asked stakeholders and
industry representatives if they were
aware of any other small manufacturers
during manufacturer interviews and at
DOE public meetings. DOE reviewed
publicly-available data and contacted
select companies on its list, as
necessary, to determine whether they
met the SBA’s definition of a small
business manufacturer of covered
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps. DOE
screened out companies that do not
offer products covered by this
rulemaking, do not meet the definition
of a ‘‘small business,’’ or are foreign
owned and operated.
For central air conditioners, DOE
initially identified 89 distinct brands
sold in the U.S. Out of these 89 brands,
DOE determined that 18 brands are
managed by small businesses. While
identifying the parent companies of the
18 brands, DOE determined that only
four companies are domestic small
business manufacturers of central air
conditioning products. Three of these
small businesses produce spaceconstrained products and one produces
small-duct, high-velocity products.
101 See https://www.ahridirectory.org/
ahriDirectory/pages/home.aspx.
102 See https://dsbs.sba.gov/dsbs/search/
dsp_dsbs.cfm.
103 See https://www.dnb.com/
104 See https://www.hoovers.com/.
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None of the small businesses produced
split-system air conditioning, splitsystem heat pumps, single-package air
conditioning, or single-package heat
pump products, which together make
up 99 percent of industry air
conditioner and heat pump shipments.
For residential furnaces, DOE initially
identified at least 90 distinct brands
sold in the U.S. Out of these 90 brands,
DOE determined that 14 were managed
by small businesses. When identifying
the parent companies of the 14 brands,
DOE determined that only five
companies are domestic small business
manufacturers of furnace products. All
five small businesses manufacture oil
furnaces as their primary product line.
One of the small businesses also
produces mobile home furnaces as a
secondary product offering. DOE did not
identify any small manufacturers
producing non-weatherized gas furnaces
or weatherized gas furnaces, which
together make up over 95 percent of
residential furnace shipments. DOE also
did not identify any small
manufacturers of electric furnaces
affected by this rulemaking.
Next, DOE contacted all of the
identified small business manufacturers
listed in the AHRI directory to request
an interview about the possible impacts
of amended energy conservation
standards on small manufacturers. Not
all manufacturers responded to
interview requests; however, DOE did
interview three small furnace
manufacturers and two small central air
conditioning and heat pump
manufacturers. From these discussions,
DOE determined the expected impacts
of the rule on affected small entities.
2. Description and Estimate of
Compliance Requirements
After examining structure of the
central air conditioner and heat pump
and furnace market, DOE determined it
necessary to examine impacts on small
manufacturers in two broad categories:
(1) Manufacturers of central air
conditioners and heat pumps and (2)
manufacturers of furnaces.
a. Central Air Conditioning and Heat
Pumps
As discussed above, no small
manufacturers for split-system air
conditioning, split-system heat pump,
single-package air conditioning, or
single-package heat pump products
were identified. DOE identified four
domestic small business manufacturers
of central air conditioner and heat pump
products. All four small businesses
manufacture niche products; three
produce space-constrained products,
and one produces SDHV products.
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37541
With regard to the space-constrained
market, the three small business
manufacturers identified by DOE make
up the vast majority of shipments of
these products in the United States.
DOE did not identify any competing
large manufacturers in this niche
market. Supporting this finding, no
large manufacturers listed through-thewall, or space-constrained, products in
the AHRI directory. According to
manufacturer interviews, no
manufacturers have entered or exited
the space-constrained market in the past
decade. Furthermore, based on the
screening analysis, teardown analysis,
and market research, DOE has
determined that the current energy
conservation standard applicable to
these products is equal to the max-tech
efficiency level. In other words, DOE
has determined it is unable to raise the
energy conservation standards
applicable to space-constrained
products due to the state of technology
and the design constraints inherent to
these products. Therefore, because the
efficiency level to which these three
small manufacturers are subject will not
change, DOE does not anticipate that the
rule would adversely affect the small
businesses manufacturing spaceconstrained air conditioning products.
With respect to SDHV products, DOE
identified one company as a small
domestic manufacturer. The company’s
primary competitors are a small
manufacturer based in Canada and a
domestic manufacturer that does not
qualify as a small business due to its
parent company’s size. These three
manufacturers account for the vast
majority of the SDHV market in the
U.S., which makes up less than 1
percent of the overall domestic central
air conditioning and heat pumps
market.
The current energy conservation
standard for SDHV is 13 SEER. In
today’s notice, DOE is not amending
that level. Therefore, because the
efficiency level to which the
manufacturers are subject will not
change, DOE does not anticipate that the
standard level would adversely affect
the manufacturers of SDHV products.
It should be noted that this
rulemaking adopts a separate standard
for the SDHV product class. As a result,
exception relief granted in 2004 under
the condition that ‘‘exception relief will
remain in effect until such time as the
agency modifies the general energy
efficiency standard for central air
conditioners and establishes a different
standard for SDHV systems that
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comports with the EPCA 105’’ will
expire. Large and small SDHV
manufacturers operating under
exception relief will be required to
either comply with the standard or reapply for exception relief ahead of the
compliance date.
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b. Residential Furnaces
DOE identified five domestic small
business manufacturers of residential
furnace products. All five produce oil
furnaces as their primary product line.
Oil furnaces make up less than 3
percent of residential furnace
shipments. One of the small businesses
also produces mobile home furnaces as
a secondary product line. No additional
small manufacturers of mobile home
furnaces were identified.
The five small business manufacturers
of residential furnace products account
for 22 percent of the 1,207 active oil
furnace product listings in the AHRI
Directory (data based on information
available from the AHRI Directory in
September 2010). Ninety-nine percent of
the small oil furnace manufacturer
product listings were above the base
standard of 78-percent AFUE. Seventyseven percent of the small oil furnace
manufacturer product listings had
efficiencies equal to or above 83-percent
AFUE, the efficiency level for oil
furnaces adopted in today’s notice. All
small business manufacturers of
residential furnace products have
product lines that meet the efficiency
level adopted in today’s notice.
In interviews, several small
manufacturers noted that the majority of
their businesses’ sales are above 83percent AFUE today. According to
interviews, the small manufacturers
focus on marketing their brands as
premium products in the replacement
market, while the major manufacturers
tend to sell their products at lower cost
and lower efficiency. For this reason, a
higher standard is unlikely to require
investments in research and
development by small manufacturers to
catch up to larger manufacturers in
terms of technology development.
However, in interviews, small oil
furnace manufacturers did indicate
some concern if the energy conservation
standard were to be raised to 85 percent,
which is the efficiency level just below
max-tech, or above. At these efficiency
levels, according to manufacturers, the
installation costs for oil furnaces could
significantly increase due to the need
for chimney liners, which are necessary
105 Department of Energy: Office of Hearings and
Appeals, Decision and Order, Case #TEE 0010
(2004) (Available at: https://www.oha.doe.gov/cases/
ee/tee0010.pdf) (last accessed September 2010).
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to manage the acidic condensate that
results from the high sulfur content of
domestic heating oil. Small oil furnace
manufacturers expressed concern that
the additional installation costs of a
chimney liner would deter home
owners from purchasing new oil
furnaces and accelerate the contraction
of an already-shrinking oil furnace
market. Additionally, small
manufacturers were concerned that a
high standard would leave little
opportunity to differentiate their oil
furnaces as premium products through
higher efficiencies. If the amended
standards were sufficiently stringent as
to leave little room for small
manufacturers to offer higher-efficiency
products, it would become more
difficult to for them to justify their
premium positioning in the
marketplace. However, manufacturers
indicated that the change in the
efficiency level corresponding to that
adopted by today’s notice would not
significantly alter that premium pricing
dynamic.
For oil furnaces, the majority of both
small business product lines and sales
are at efficiencies equal to or above 83percent AFUE. Oil furnace
manufacturers do not expect to face
significant conversion costs to reach the
adopted level. Based on manufacturer
feedback, DOE estimated that a typical
small oil furnace manufacturer would
need to invest $250,000 to cover
conversion costs, including both capital
and product conversion costs such as
investments in production lines, R&D
and engineering resources, and product
testing, to meet the standard. However,
any relatively fixed costs associated
with R&D, marketing, and testing
necessitated by today’s direct final rule
would have to be spread over lower
volumes, on average, as compared to
larger manufacturers. DOE believes this
disproportionate adverse impact on
small manufacturers is somewhat
mitigated by an industry trend toward
large manufacturers outsourcing their
oil furnace production to small
manufacturers, which has increased the
sales of both domestic and Canadian
small manufacturers. Interviewed small
manufacturers indicated that larger
manufacturers are becoming less willing
to allocate resources to the shrinking oil
furnace market, yet still want to
maintain a presence in this portion of
the market in order to offer a full
product line. In turn, market share in oil
furnace production is shifting to small
manufacturers. For all of the foregoing
reasons, DOE does not believe today’s
direct final rule jeopardizes the viability
of the small oil furnace manufacturers.
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As noted above, DOE identified one
small manufacturer of mobile home
furnaces. This manufacturer primarily
produces and sells oil furnaces, but it
also produces mobile home furnaces as
a secondary product offering. The
standard promulgated in today’s notice
would require 90-percent AFUE in the
North and 80-percent AFUE in the
South. DOE believes the adopted
standard level would be unlikely to
cause the small manufacturer to incur
significant conversion costs because
their current product offering already
meets it, as illustrated by the listings in
the AHRI directory.
In multiple niche product classes,
larger manufacturers could have a
competitive advantage due to their size
and ability to access capital that may
not be available to small businesses.
Additionally, in some market segments,
larger businesses have larger production
volumes over which to spread costs.
3. Duplication, Overlap, and Conflict
With Other Rules and Regulations
DOE is not aware of any rules or
regulations that duplicate, overlap, or
conflict with the rule being promulgated
today.
4. Significant Alternatives to the Rule
The discussion above analyzes
impacts on small businesses that would
result from DOE’s rule. In addition to
the other TSLs being considered, the
direct final rule TSD includes a
regulatory impact analysis (RIA). For
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps, the RIA
discusses the following policy
alternatives: (1) No change in standard;
(2) consumer rebates; (3) consumer tax
credits; (4) manufacturer tax credits; and
(5) early replacement. While these
alternatives may mitigate to some
varying extent the economic impacts on
small entities compared to the amended
standards, DOE determined that the
energy savings of these regulatory
alternatives are at least 10 times smaller
than those that would be expected to
result from adoption of the amended
standard levels. Thus, DOE rejected
these alternatives and is adopting the
amended standards set forth in this
rulemaking. (See chapter 16 of the direct
final rule TSD for further detail on the
policy alternatives DOE considered.)
C. Review Under the Paperwork
Reduction Act of 1995
Manufacturers of residential furnaces,
central air conditioners, and heat pumps
must certify to DOE that their products
comply with any applicable energy
conservation standard. In certifying
compliance, manufacturers must test
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their products according to the DOE test
procedures for furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps, as
applicable, including any amendments
adopted for those particular test
procedures. DOE has proposed
regulations for the certification and
recordkeeping requirements for all
covered consumer products and
commercial equipment, including
residential furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps. 75 FR
56796 (Sept. 16, 2010). The collectionof-information requirement for the
certification and recordkeeping is
subject to review and approval by OMB
under the Paperwork Reduction Act
(PRA). (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.) This
requirement has been submitted to OMB
for approval. Public reporting burden
for the certification is estimated to
average 20 hours per response,
including the time for reviewing
instructions, searching existing data
sources, gathering and maintaining the
data needed, and completing and
reviewing the collection of information.
Notwithstanding any other provision
of the law, no person is required to
respond to, nor shall any person be
subject to a penalty for failure to comply
with, a collection of information subject
to the requirements of the PRA, unless
that collection of information displays a
currently valid OMB Control Number.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969
DOE has prepared an environmental
assessment (EA) of the impacts of the
direct final rule pursuant to the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (42
U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), the regulations of
the Council on Environmental Quality
(40 CFR parts 1500–1508), and DOE’s
regulations for compliance with the
National Environmental Policy Act of
1969 (10 CFR part 1021). This
assessment includes an examination of
the potential effects of emission
reductions likely to result from the rule
in the context of global climate change,
as well as other types of environmental
impacts. The EA has been incorporated
into the direct final rule TSD as chapter
15.
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
Executive Order 13132, ‘‘Federalism,’’
64 FR 43255 (Aug. 10, 1999) imposes
certain requirements on Federal
agencies formulating and implementing
policies or regulations that preempt
State law or that have Federalism
implications. The Executive Order
requires agencies to examine the
constitutional and statutory authority
supporting any action that would limit
the policymaking discretion of the
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States and to carefully assess the
necessity for such actions. The
Executive Order also requires agencies
to have an accountable process to
ensure meaningful and timely input by
State and local officials in the
development of regulatory policies that
have Federalism implications. On
March 14, 2000, DOE published a
statement of policy describing the
intergovernmental consultation process
it will follow in the development of
such regulations. 65 FR 13735. EPCA
governs and prescribes Federal
preemption of State regulations as to
energy conservation for the products
that are the subject of today’s direct
final rule. States can petition DOE for
exemption from such preemption to the
extent, and based on criteria, set forth in
EPCA. (42 U.S.C. 6297) No further
action is required by Executive Order
13132.
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
With respect to the review of existing
regulations and the promulgation of
new regulations, section 3(a) of
Executive Order 12988, ‘‘Civil Justice
Reform,’’ imposes on Federal agencies
the general duty to adhere to the
following requirements: (1) Eliminate
drafting errors and ambiguity; (2) write
regulations to minimize litigation; and
(3) provide a clear legal standard for
affected conduct rather than a general
standard and promote simplification
and burden reduction. 61 FR 4729 (Feb.
7, 1996). Section 3(b) of Executive Order
12988 specifically requires that
Executive agencies make every
reasonable effort to ensure that the
regulation: (1) Clearly specifies the
preemptive effect, if any; (2) clearly
specifies any effect on existing Federal
law or regulation; (3) provides a clear
legal standard for affected conduct
while promoting simplification and
burden reduction; (4) specifies the
retroactive effect, if any; (5) adequately
defines key terms; and (6) addresses
other important issues affecting clarity
and general draftsmanship under any
guidelines issued by the Attorney
General. Section 3(c) of Executive Order
12988 requires Executive agencies to
review regulations in light of applicable
standards in section 3(a) and section
3(b) to determine whether they are met
or it is unreasonable to meet one or
more of them. DOE has completed the
required review and determined that, to
the extent permitted by law, this direct
final rule meets the relevant standards
of Executive Order 12988.
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37543
G. Review Under the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995
Title II of the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA) requires
each Federal agency to assess the effects
of Federal regulatory actions on State,
local, and Tribal governments and the
private sector. Public Law 104–4, sec.
201 (codified at 2 U.S.C. 1531). For a
regulatory action likely to result in a
rule that may cause the expenditure by
State, local, and Tribal governments, in
the aggregate, or by the private sector of
$100 million or more in any one year
(adjusted annually for inflation), section
202 of UMRA requires a Federal agency
to publish a written statement that
estimates the resulting costs, benefits,
and other effects on the national
economy. (2 U.S.C. 1532(a), (b)) The
UMRA also requires a Federal agency to
develop an effective process to permit
timely input by elected officers of State,
local, and Tribal governments on a
‘‘significant intergovernmental
mandate,’’ and requires an agency plan
for giving notice and opportunity for
timely input to potentially affected
small governments before establishing
any requirements that might
significantly or uniquely affect small
governments. On March 18, 1997, DOE
published a statement of policy on its
process for intergovernmental
consultation under UMRA. 62 FR
12820. DOE’s policy statement is also
available at https://www.gc.doe.gov.
Although this rule does not contain a
Federal intergovernmental mandate, it
may impose expenditures of $100
million or more on the private sector.
Specifically, the final rule could impose
expenditures of $100 million or more.
Such expenditures may include: (1)
Investment in research and
development and in capital
expenditures by furnace, central air
conditioner, and heat pump
manufacturers in the years between the
final rule and the compliance date for
the new standards, and (2) incremental
additional expenditures by consumers
to purchase higher-efficiency furnace,
central air conditioner, and heat pump
products, starting at the compliance
date for the applicable standard.
Section 202 of UMRA authorizes a
Federal agency to respond to the content
requirements of UMRA in any other
statement or analysis that accompanies
the rule. 2 U.S.C. 1532(c). The content
requirements of section 202(b) of UMRA
relevant to a private sector mandate
substantially overlap the economic
analysis requirements that apply under
section 325(o) of EPCA and Executive
Order 12866. The SUPPLEMENTARY
INFORMATION section of the direct final
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rule and the ‘‘Regulatory Impact
Analysis’’ section of the TSD for this
direct final rule respond to those
requirements.
Under section 205 of UMRA, the
Department is obligated to identify and
consider a reasonable number of
regulatory alternatives before
promulgating a rule for which a written
statement under section 202 is required.
2 U.S.C. 1535(a). DOE is required to
select from those alternatives the most
cost-effective and least burdensome
alternative that achieves the objectives
of the rule unless DOE publishes an
explanation for doing otherwise, or the
selection of such an alternative is
inconsistent with law. As required by 42
U.S.C. 6295(d), (f) and (o), this rule
would establish amended energy
conservation standards for residential
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps that are designed to achieve
the maximum improvement in energy
efficiency that DOE has determined to
be both technologically feasible and
economically justified. A full discussion
of the alternatives considered by DOE is
presented in the ‘‘Regulatory Impact
Analysis’’ chapter of the TSD for today’s
direct final rule.
H. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 1999
Section 654 of the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 1999 (Pub. L. 105–277) requires
Federal agencies to issue a Family
Policymaking Assessment for any rule
that may affect family well-being. This
rule would not have any impact on the
autonomy or integrity of the family as
an institution. Accordingly, DOE has
concluded that it is not necessary to
prepare a Family Policymaking
Assessment.
srobinson on DSK4SPTVN1PROD with RULES2
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
DOE has determined, under Executive
Order 12630, ‘‘Governmental Actions
and Interference with Constitutionally
Protected Property Rights,’’ 53 FR 8859
(Mar. 18, 1988), that this regulation
would not result in any takings which
might require compensation under the
Fifth Amendment to the U.S.
Constitution.
J. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 2001
Section 515 of the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 2001 (44 U.S.C. 3516, note)
provides for Federal agencies to review
most disseminations of information to
the public under guidelines established
by each agency pursuant to general
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guidelines issued by OMB. OMB’s
guidelines were published at 67 FR
8452 (Feb. 22, 2002), and DOE’s
guidelines were published at 67 FR
62446 (Oct. 7, 2002). DOE has reviewed
today’s notice under the OMB and DOE
guidelines and has concluded that it is
consistent with applicable policies in
those guidelines.
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
Executive Order 13211, ‘‘Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use,’’ 66 FR 28355 (May
22, 2001), requires Federal agencies to
prepare and submit to OIRA at OMB, a
Statement of Energy Effects for any
significant energy action. A ‘‘significant
energy action’’ is defined as any action
by an agency that promulgates or is
expected to lead to promulgation of a
final rule, and that: (1) Is a significant
regulatory action under Executive Order
12866, or any successor order; and (2)
is likely to have a significant adverse
effect on the supply, distribution, or use
of energy, or (3) is designated by the
Administrator of OIRA as a significant
energy action. For any significant energy
action, the agency must give a detailed
statement of any adverse effects on
energy supply, distribution, or use
should the proposal be implemented,
and of reasonable alternatives to the
action and their expected benefits on
energy supply, distribution, and use.
DOE has concluded that today’s
regulatory action, which sets forth
energy conservation standards for
furnaces, central air conditioners, and
heat pumps, is not a significant energy
action because the amended standards
are not likely to have a significant
adverse effect on the supply,
distribution, or use of energy, nor has it
been designated as such by the
Administrator at OIRA. Accordingly,
DOE has not prepared a Statement of
Energy Effects on the direct final rule.
L. Review Under the Information
Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
On December 16, 2004, OMB, in
consultation with the Office of Science
and Technology Policy (OSTP), issued
its Final Information Quality Bulletin
for Peer Review (the Bulletin). 70 FR
2664 (Jan. 14, 2005). The Bulletin
establishes that certain scientific
information shall be peer reviewed by
qualified specialists before it is
disseminated by the Federal
Government, including influential
scientific information related to agency
regulatory actions. The purpose of the
bulletin is to enhance the quality and
credibility of the Government’s
scientific information. Under the
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Bulletin, the energy conservation
standards rulemaking analyses are
‘‘influential scientific information,’’
which the Bulletin defines as ‘‘scientific
information the agency reasonably can
determine will have, or does have, a
clear and substantial impact on
important public policies or private
sector decisions.’’ Id. at 2667.
In response to OMB’s Bulletin, DOE
conducted formal in-progress peer
reviews of the energy conservation
standards development process and
analyses and has prepared a Peer
Review Report pertaining to the energy
conservation standards rulemaking
analyses. Generation of this report
involved a rigorous, formal, and
documented evaluation using objective
criteria and qualified and independent
reviewers to make a judgment as to the
technical/scientific/business merit, the
actual or anticipated results, and the
productivity and management
effectiveness of programs and/or
projects. The ‘‘Energy Conservation
Standards Rulemaking Peer Review
Report’’ dated February 2007 has been
disseminated and is available at the
following Web site: https://
www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/peer_review.html.
M. Congressional Notification
As required by 5 U.S.C. 801, DOE will
report to Congress on the promulgation
of this rule prior to its effective date.
The report will state that it has been
determined that the rule is a ‘‘major
rule’’ as defined by 5 U.S.C. 804(2). DOE
also will submit the supporting analyses
to the Comptroller General in the U.S.
Government Accountability Office
(GAO) and make them available to each
House of Congress.
VII. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
DOE will accept comments, data, and
information regarding this direct final
rule no later than the date provided in
the DATES section at the beginning of
this direct final rule. Interested parties
may submit comments, data, and other
information using any of the methods
described in the ADDRESSES section at
the beginning of this notice.
Submitting comments via
regulations.gov. The regulations.gov
web page will require you to provide
your name and contact information.
Your contact information will be
viewable to DOE Building Technologies
staff only. Your contact information will
not be publicly viewable except for your
first and last names, organization name
(if any), and submitter representative
name (if any). If your comment is not
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processed properly because of technical
difficulties, DOE will use this
information to contact you. If DOE
cannot read your comment due to
technical difficulties and cannot contact
you for clarification, DOE may not be
able to consider your comment.
However, your contact information
will be publicly viewable if you include
it in the comment itself or in any
documents attached to your comment.
Any information that you do not want
to be publicly viewable should not be
included in your comment, nor in any
document attached to your comment.
Otherwise, persons viewing comments
will see only first and last names,
organization names, correspondence
containing comments, and any
documents submitted with the
comments.
Do not submit to regulations.gov
information for which disclosure is
restricted by statute, such as trade
secrets and commercial or financial
information (hereinafter referred to as
Confidential Business Information
(CBI)). Comments submitted through
regulations.gov cannot be claimed as
CBI. Comments received through the
Web site will waive any CBI claims for
the information submitted. For
information on submitting CBI, see the
Confidential Business Information
section below.
DOE processes submissions made
through regulations.gov before posting.
Normally, comments will be posted
within a few days of being submitted.
However, if large volumes of comments
are being processed simultaneously,
your comment may not be viewable for
up to several weeks. Please keep the
comment tracking number that
regulations.gov provides after you have
successfully uploaded your comment.
Submitting comments via e-mail,
hand delivery/courier, or mail.
Comments and documents submitted
via e-mail, hand delivery, or mail also
will be posted to regulations.gov. If you
do not want your personal contact
information to be publicly viewable, do
not include it in your comment or any
accompanying documents. Instead,
provide your contact information in a
cover letter. Include your first and last
names, e-mail address, telephone
number, and optional mailing address.
The cover letter will not be publicly
viewable as long as it does not include
any comments.
Include contact information each time
you submit comments, data, documents,
and other information to DOE. E-mail
submissions are preferred. If you submit
via mail or hand delivery/courier,
please provide all items on a CD, if
feasible. It is not necessary to submit
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printed copies. No facsimiles (faxes)
will be accepted.
Comments, data, and other
information submitted to DOE
electronically should be provided in
PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file
format. Provide documents that are not
secured, that are written in English, and
that are free of any defects or viruses.
Documents should not contain special
characters or any form of encryption
and, if possible, they should carry the
electronic signature of the author.
Campaign form letters. Please submit
campaign form letters by the originating
organization in batches of between 50 to
500 form letters per PDF or as one form
letter with a list of supporters’ names
compiled into one or more PDFs. This
reduces comment processing and
posting time.
Confidential business information.
According to 10 CFR 1004.11, any
person submitting information that he
or she believes to be confidential and
exempt by law from public disclosure
should submit via e-mail, postal mail, or
hand delivery/courier two well-marked
copies: one copy of the document
marked confidential including all the
information believed to be confidential,
and one copy of the document marked
non-confidential with the information
believed to be confidential deleted.
Submit these documents via e-mail or
on a CD, if feasible. DOE will make its
own determination about the
confidential status of the information
and treat it according to its
determination.
Factors of interest to DOE when
evaluating requests to treat submitted
information as confidential include: (1)
A description of the items; (2) whether
and why such items are customarily
treated as confidential within the
industry; (3) whether the information is
generally known by or available from
other sources; (4) whether the
information has previously been made
available to others without obligation
concerning its confidentiality; (5) an
explanation of the competitive injury to
the submitting person which would
result from public disclosure; (6) when
such information might lose its
confidential character due to the
passage of time; and (7) why disclosure
of the information would be contrary to
the public interest.
It is DOE’s policy that all comments
may be included in the public docket,
without change and as received,
including any personal information
provided in the comments (except
information deemed to be exempt from
public disclosure).
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VIII. Approval of the Office of the
Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved
publication of today’s direct final rule.
List of Subjects in 10 CFR Part 430
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Energy conservation,
Household appliances, Imports,
Intergovernmental relations, Reporting
and recordkeeping requirements, and
Small businesses.
Issued in Washington, DC, on June 6, 2011.
Henry Kelly,
Acting Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Energy.
For the reasons set forth in the
preamble, DOE amends part 430 of
chapter II, subchapter D, of title 10 of
the Code of Federal Regulations, to read
as set forth below:
PART 430—ENERGY CONSERVATION
PROGRAM FOR CONSUMER
PRODUCTS
1. The authority for part 430
continues to read as follows:
■
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 6291–6309; 28 U.S.C.
2461 note.
2. Section 430.23 is amended by:
a. Redesignating paragraphs (m)(4),
(m)(5), and (n)(5) as paragraphs (m)(5),
(m)(6), and (n)(6), respectively;
■ b. Adding new paragraphs (m)(4) and
(n)(5); and
■ c. Revising paragraph (n)(2).
The additions and revision read as
follows:
■
■
§ 430.23 Test procedures for the
measurement of energy and water
consumption.
*
*
*
*
*
(m) Central air conditioners and heat
pumps. * * *
(4) The average off mode power
consumption for central air conditioners
and central air conditioning heat pumps
shall be determined according to
appendix M of this subpart. Round the
average off mode power consumption to
the nearest watt.
*
*
*
*
*
(n) Furnaces. * * *
(2) The annual fuel utilization
efficiency for furnaces, expressed in
percent, is the ratio of the annual fuel
output of useful energy delivered to the
heated space to the annual fuel energy
input to the furnace determined
according to section 10.1 of appendix N
of this subpart for gas and oil furnaces
and determined in accordance with
section 11.1 of the American National
Standards Institute/American Society of
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Heating, Refrigerating, and AirConditioning Engineers (ANSI/
ASHRAE) Standard 103–1993
(incorporated by reference, see § 430.3)
for electric furnaces. Round the annual
fuel utilization efficiency to the nearest
whole percentage point.
*
*
*
*
*
(5) The average standby mode and off
mode electrical power consumption for
furnaces shall be determined according
to section 8.6 of appendix N of this
subpart. Round the average standby
mode and off mode electrical power
consumption to the nearest watt.
*
*
*
*
*
■ 3. Appendix M to subpart B of part
430 is amended by adding a note after
the heading that reads as follows:
Appendix M to Subpart B of Part 430—
Uniform Test Method for Measuring the
Energy Consumption of Central Air
Conditioners and Heat Pumps
Note: The procedures and calculations that
refer to off mode energy consumption (i.e.,
sections 3.13 and 4.2.8 of this appendix M)
need not be performed to determine
compliance with energy conservation
standards for central air conditioners and
heat pumps at this time. However, any
representation related to standby mode and
off mode energy consumption of these
products made after corresponding revisions
to the central air conditioners and heat
pumps test procedure must be based upon
results generated under this test procedure,
consistent with the requirements of 42 U.S.C.
6293(c)(2). For residential central air
conditioners and heat pumps manufactured
on or after January 1, 2015, compliance with
the applicable provisions of this test
procedure is required in order to determine
compliance with energy conservation
standards.
4. Appendix N to subpart B of part
430 is amended by:
■ a. Removing all references to ‘‘POFF’’
and adding in their place ‘‘PW,OFF’’ in
sections 8.6.2, 9.0, and 10.9;
■ b. Removing all references to ‘‘PSB’’
and adding in their place ‘‘PW,SB’’ in
sections 8.6.1, 8.6.2, 9.0, and 10.9; and
■ c. Revising the note after the heading.
The revision reads as follows:
■
Appendix N to Subpart B of Part 430—
Uniform Test Method for Measuring the
Energy Consumption of Furnaces and
Boilers
Note: The procedures and calculations that
refer to off mode energy consumption (i.e.,
sections 8.6 and 10.9 of this appendix N)
need not be performed to determine
compliance with energy conservation
standards for furnaces and boilers at this
time. However, any representation related to
standby mode and off mode energy
consumption of these products made after
April 18, 2011 must be based upon results
generated under this test procedure,
consistent with the requirements of 42 U.S.C.
6293(c)(2). For furnaces manufactured on or
after May 1, 2013, compliance with the
applicable provisions of this test procedure is
required in order to determine compliance
with energy conservation standards. For
boilers, the statute requires that after July 1,
2010, any adopted energy conservation
standard shall address standby mode and off
mode energy consumption for these
products, and upon the compliance date for
such standards, compliance with the
applicable provisions of this test procedure
will be required.
*
*
*
*
*
5. Section 430.32 is amended by:
a. Revising paragraph (c)(2);
b. Adding paragraphs (c)(3), (c)(4),
(c)(5), (c)(6);
■ c. Revising paragraphs (e)(1)(i) and
(e)(1)(ii); and
■ d. Adding paragraphs (e)(1)(iii) and
(e)(1)(iv).
The additions and revisions read as
follows:
■
■
■
§ 430.32 Energy and water conservation
standards and their effective dates.
*
*
*
*
*
(c) * * *
(2) Central air conditioners and
central air conditioning heat pumps
manufactured on or after January 23,
2006, and before January 1, 2015, shall
have Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio
and Heating Seasonal Performance
Factor no less than:
Seasonal energy
efficiency ratio
(SEER)
Product class
(i) Split-system air conditioners ...................................................................................................................
(ii) Split-system heat pumps ........................................................................................................................
(iii) Single-package air conditioners ............................................................................................................
(iv) Single-package heat pumps ..................................................................................................................
(v)(A) Through-the-wall air conditioners and heat pumps-split system 1 ....................................................
(v)(B) Through-the-wall air conditioners and heat pumps-single package 1 ...............................................
(vi) Small-duct, high-velocity systems .........................................................................................................
(vii)(A) Space-constrained products—air conditioners ................................................................................
(vii)(B) Space-constrained products—heat pumps ......................................................................................
Heating seasonal
performance
factor (HSPF)
13
13
13
13
10.9
10.6
13
12
12
7.7
7.7
7.1
7.0
7.7
7.4
1 The
‘‘through-the-wall air conditioners and heat pump—split system’’ and ‘‘through-the-wall air conditioner and heat pump—single package’’
product classes only applied to products manufactured prior to January 23, 2010. Products manufactured as of that date must be assigned to
one of the remaining product classes listed in this table. The product class assignment depends on the product’s characteristics. Product class
definitions can be found in 10 CFR 430.2 and 10 CFR part 430, subpart B, appendix M. DOE believes that most, if not all, of the historicallycharacterized ‘‘through-the-wall’’ products will be assigned to one of the space-constrained product classes.
(3) Central air conditioners and
central air conditioning heat pumps
manufactured on or after January 1,
2015, shall have a Seasonal Energy
Efficiency Ratio and Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor not less than:
Seasonal energy
efficiency ratio
(SEER)
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Product class 1
(i) Split-system air conditioners ...................................................................................................................
(ii) Split-system heat pumps ........................................................................................................................
(iii) Single-package air conditioners ............................................................................................................
(iv) Single-package heat pumps ..................................................................................................................
(v) Small-duct, high-velocity systems ..........................................................................................................
(vi)(A) Space-constrained products—air conditioners .................................................................................
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14
14
14
13
12
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performance
factor (HSPF)
8.2
8.0
7.7
Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules and Regulations
Seasonal energy
efficiency ratio
(SEER)
Product class 1
(vi)(B) Space-constrained products—heat pumps ......................................................................................
12
37547
Heating seasonal
performance
factor (HSPF)
7.4
1 The
‘‘through-the-wall air conditioners and heat pump—split system’’ and ‘‘through-the-wall air conditioner and heat pump—single package’’
product classes only applied to products manufactured prior to January 23, 2010. Products manufactured as of that date must be assigned to
one of the remaining product classes listed in this table. The product class assignment depends on the product’s characteristics. Product class
definitions can be found in 10 CFR 430.2 and 10 CFR part 430, subpart B, appendix M. DOE believes that most, if not all, of the historicallycharacterized ‘‘through-the-wall’’ products will be assigned to one of the space-constrained product classes.
(4) In addition to meeting the
applicable requirements in paragraph
(c)(3) of this section, products in
product class (i) of that paragraph (i.e.,
split-system air conditioners) that are
manufactured on or after January 1,
2015, and installed in the States of
Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,
Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,
Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee,
Texas, or Virginia, or in the District of
Columbia, shall have a Seasonal Energy
Efficiency Ratio not less than 14.
(5) In addition to meeting the
applicable requirements in paragraphs
(c)(3) of this section, products in
product classes (i) and (iii) of paragraph
(c)(3) (i.e., split-system air conditioners
and single-package air conditioners) that
are manufactured on or after January 1,
2015, and installed in the States of
Arizona, California, Nevada, or New
Mexico shall have a Seasonal Energy
Efficiency Ratio not less than 14 and
have an Energy Efficiency Ratio (at a
standard rating of 95 °F dry bulb
outdoor temperature) not less than the
following:
Energy efficiency
ratio (EER)
Product class
(i) Split-system rated cooling capacity less than 45,000 Btu/hr ....................................................................................................
(ii) Split-system rated cooling capacity equal to or greater than 45,000 Btu/hr ...........................................................................
(iii) Single-package systems ..........................................................................................................................................................
(6) Central air conditioners and
central air conditioning heat pumps
manufactured on or after January 1,
2015, shall have an average off mode
12.2
11.7
11.0
electrical power consumption not more
than the following:
Average off mode
power consumption PW,OFF (watts)
Product class
(i) Split-system air conditioners .....................................................................................................................................................
(ii) Split-system heat pumps ..........................................................................................................................................................
(iii) Single-package air conditioners ..............................................................................................................................................
(iv) Single-package heat pumps ....................................................................................................................................................
(v) Small-duct, high-velocity systems ............................................................................................................................................
(vi) Space-constrained air conditioners .........................................................................................................................................
(vii) Space-constrained heat pumps ..............................................................................................................................................
*
*
*
(e) * * *
(1) * * *
*
*
(i) The Annual Fuel Utilization
Efficiency (AFUE) of residential
furnaces shall not be less than the
following for non-weatherized furnaces
manufactured before May 1, 2013, and
weatherized furnaces manufactured
before January 1, 2015:
AFUE (percent) 1
Product class
(A) Furnaces (excluding classes noted below) .............................................................................................................................
(B) Mobile Home furnaces .............................................................................................................................................................
(C) Small furnaces (other than those designed solely for installation in mobile homes) having an input rate of less than
45,000 Btu/hr ..............................................................................................................................................................................
(1) Weatherized (outdoor) .............................................................................................................................................................
(2) Non-weatherized (indoor) .........................................................................................................................................................
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1
30
33
30
33
30
30
33
78
75
..............................
78
78
Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency, as determined in § 430.23(n)(2) of this part.
(ii) The AFUE of residential nonweatherized furnaces manufactured on
or after May 1, 2013, and weatherized
gas and oil-fired furnaces manufactured
on or after January 1, 2015 shall be not
less than the following:
AFUE (percent) 1
Product class
(A) Non-weatherized gas furnaces (not including mobile home furnaces) ...................................................................................
(B) Mobile Home gas furnaces ......................................................................................................................................................
(C) Non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces (not including mobile home furnaces) .............................................................................
(D) Mobile Home oil-fired furnaces ...............................................................................................................................................
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AFUE (percent) 1
Product class
(E) Weatherized gas furnaces .......................................................................................................................................................
(F) Weatherized oil-fired furnaces .................................................................................................................................................
(G) Electric furnaces ......................................................................................................................................................................
1
Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency, as determined in § 430.23(n)(2) of this part.
(iii) In addition to meeting the
applicable requirements in paragraph
(e)(1)(ii) of this section, products in
product classes (A) and (B) of that
paragraph (i.e., residential nonweatherized gas furnaces (including
mobile home furnaces)) that are
manufactured on or after May 1, 2013,
and installed in the States of Alaska,
Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois,
Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine,
Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New
Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,
North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South
Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Washington,
West Virginia, Wisconsin, and
Wyoming, shall have an AFUE not less
than 90 percent.
(iv) Furnaces manufactured on or after
May 1, 2013, shall have an electrical
standby mode power consumption
(PW,SB) and electrical off mode power
consumption (PW,OFF) not more than the
following:
Maximum standby
mode electrical
power consumption, PW,SB (watts)
Product class
Maximum off
mode electrical
power consumption, PW,OFF(watts)
10
11
10
10
11
10
(A) Non-weatherized gas furnaces (including mobile home furnaces) .......................................................
(B) Non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces (including mobile home furnaces) .................................................
(C) Electric furnaces ....................................................................................................................................
*
*
*
*
*
[FR Doc. 2011–14557 Filed 6–24–11; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 123 (Monday, June 27, 2011)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Pages 37408-37548]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2011-14557]
[[Page 37407]]
Vol. 76
Monday,
No. 123
June 27, 2011
Part II
Department of Energy
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
10 CFR Part 430
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps; Final Rule and Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 76, No. 123 / Monday, June 27, 2011 / Rules
and Regulations
[[Page 37408]]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 430
[Docket Number EERE-2011-BT-STD-0011]
RIN 1904-AC06
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Residential Furnaces and Residential Central Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Direct final rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as
amended, prescribes energy conservation standards for various consumer
products and certain commercial and industrial equipment, including
residential furnaces and residential central air conditioners and heat
pumps. EPCA also requires the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to
determine whether more-stringent, amended standards for these products
would be technologically feasible and economically justified, and would
save a significant amount of energy. In this direct final rule, DOE
adopts amended energy conservation standards for residential furnaces
and for residential central air conditioners and heat pumps. A notice
of proposed rulemaking that proposes identical energy efficiency
standards is published elsewhere in this issue of the Federal Register.
If DOE receives adverse comment and determines that such comment may
provide a reasonable basis for withdrawing the direct final rule, this
final rule will be withdrawn, and DOE will proceed with the proposed
rule.
DATES: The direct final rule is effective on October 25, 2011 unless
adverse comment is received by October 17, 2011. If adverse comments
are received that DOE determines may provide a reasonable basis for
withdrawal of the direct final rule, a timely withdrawal of this rule
will be published in the Federal Register. If no such adverse comments
are received, compliance with the standards in this final rule will be
required on May 1, 2013 for non-weatherized gas furnaces, mobile home
gas furnaces, and non-weatherized oil furnaces; and January 1, 2015 for
weatherized gas furnaces and all central air conditioner and heat pump
product classes.
ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted must identify the direct final rule
for Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Furnaces, Central Air
Conditioners, and Heat Pumps, and provide the docket number EERE-2011-
BT-STD-0011 and/or regulatory information number (RIN) 1904-AC06.
Comments may be submitted using any of the following methods:
1. Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov. Follow
the instructions for submitting comments.
2. E-mail: ResFurnaceAC-2011-Std-0011@ee.doe.gov. Include Docket
Numbers EERE-2011-BT-STD-0011 and/or RIN number 1904-AC06 in the
subject line of the message.
3. Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy, Building
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585-0121. If possible, please submit all items on a
CD, in which case it is not necessary to include printed copies.
4. Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of
Energy, Building Technologies Program, 950 L'Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite
600, Washington, DC 20024. Telephone: (202) 586-2945. If possible,
please submit all items on a CD, in which case it is not necessary to
include printed copies.
No telefacsimilies will be accepted. For detailed instructions on
submitting comments and additional information on the rulemaking
process, see section VII of this document (Public Participation).
Docket: The docket is available for review at https://www.regulations.gov, including Federal Register notices, framework
documents, public meeting attendee lists and transcripts, comments, and
other supporting documents/materials. All documents in the docket are
listed in the https://www.regulations.gov index. However, not all
documents listed in the index may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public disclosure.
A link to the docket Web page can be found at: https://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;dct=FR
+PR+++SR+PS;rpp=50;so=DESC;sb=postedDate;po=0;D=EERE-2011-BT-STD-0011.
The https://www.regulations.gov Web page contains simple
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments,
in the docket. See section VII for further information on how to submit
comments through https://www.regulations.gov.
For further information on how to submit or review public comments,
or view hard copies of the docket in the Resource Room, contact Ms.
Brenda Edwards at (202) 586-2945 or by e-mail:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Mr. Mohammed Khan (furnaces) or Mr. Wesley Anderson (central air
conditioners and heat pumps), U.S. Department of Energy, Office of
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Program,
EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121.
Telephone: (202) 586-7892 or (202) 586-7335. E-mail:
Mohammed.Khan@ee.doe.gov or Wes.Anderson@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Eric Stas or Ms. Jennifer Tiedeman, U.S. Department of Energy,
Office of the General Counsel, GC-71, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 586-9507 or (202) 287-6111.
E-mail: Eric.Stas@hq.doe.gov or Jennifer.Tiedeman@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Summary of the Direct Final Rule
A. The Energy Conservation Standard Levels
B. Benefits and Costs to Consumers
C. Impact on Manufacturers
D. National Benefits
E. Conclusion
II. Introduction
A. Authority
B. Background
1. Current Standards
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for Residential Furnaces,
Central Air Conditioners, and Heat Pumps
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
III. General Discussion
A. Combined Rulemaking
B. Consensus Agreement
1. Background
2. Recommendations
a. Regions
b. Standard Levels
c. Compliance Dates
3. Comments on Consensus Agreement
C. Compliance Dates
a. Consensus Agreement Compliance Dates
b. Shift From Peak Season
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode Compliance Dates
D. Regional Standards
1. Furnace Regions for Analysis
2. Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Regions for Analysis
3. Impacts on Market Participants and Enforcement Issues
a. Impacts on Additional Market Participants
b. Enforcement Issues
E. Standby Mode and Off Mode
1. Furnaces
a. Standby Mode and Off Mode for Weatherized Gas and Weatherized
Oil-Fired Furnaces
[[Page 37409]]
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode for Electric Furnaces
c. Standby Mode and Off Mode for Mobile Home Oil-Fired Furnaces
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
a. Off Mode for Space-Constrained Air Conditioners and Heat
Pumps
F. Test Procedures
1. Furnaces
a. AFUE Test Method Comment Discussion
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
a. Proposed Test Procedure Amendments
G. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
a. Weatherized Gas Furnace Max-Tech Efficiency Level
b. Space-Constrained Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Max-
Tech Efficiency Levels
H. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
2. Significance of Savings
I. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers and Consumers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of Products
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. General
2. Products Included in this Rulemaking
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
3. Product Classes
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
4. Technologies That Do Not Impact Rated Efficiency
B. Screening Analysis
1. Furnaces
a. Screened-Out Technology Options
2. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
4. Technologies Considered
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Cost Assessment Methodology
a. Teardown Analysis
b. Cost Model
c. Manufacturing Production Cost
d. Cost-Efficiency Relationship
e. Manufacturer Markup
f. Shipping Costs
g. Manufacturer Interviews
2. Representative Products
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
3. Efficiency Levels
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
4. Results
5. Scaling to Additional Capacities
a. Furnaces
b. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
6. Heat Pump SEER/HSPF Relationships
7. Standby Mode and Off Mode Analysis
a. Identification and Characterization of Standby Mode and Off
Mode Components
b. Baseline Model
c. Cost-Power Consumption Results
D. Markup Analysis
E. Energy Use Analysis
1. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
2. Furnaces
3. Standby Mode and Off Mode
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
b. Furnaces
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses
1. Product Cost
2. Installation Cost
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
b. Furnaces
3. Annual Energy Consumption
4. Energy Prices
5. Energy Price Projections
6. Maintenance and Repair Costs
a. Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps
b. Furnaces
7. Product Lifetime
8. Discount Rates
9. Compliance Date of Amended Standards
10. Base-Case Efficiency Distribution
a. Energy Efficiency
b. Standby Mode and Off Mode Power
11. Inputs to Payback Period Analysis
12. Rebuttable Presumption Payback Period
G. National Impact Analysis-National Energy Savings and Net
Present Value
1. Shipments
a. Impact of Potential Standards on Shipments
2. Forecasted Efficiency in the Base Case and Standards Cases
3. Installed Cost per Unit
4. National Energy Savings
5. Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit
6. Benefits From Effects of Standards on Energy Prices
H. Consumer Subgroup Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
a. Phase 1: Industry Profile
b. Phase 2: Industry Cash Flow Analysis
c. Phase 3: Sub-Group Impact Analysis
2. GRIM Analysis
a. GRIM Key Inputs
b. Markup Scenarios
3. Manufacturer Interviews
a. Consensus Agreement
b. Potential for Significant Changes to Manufacturing Facilities
c. Increase in Product Repair and Migration to Alternative
Products
d. HFC Phase-Out Legislation
e. Physical Constraints
f. Supply Chain Constraints
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
L. Environmental Assessment
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and Other Emissions Impacts
1. Social Cost of Carbon
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in Past Regulatory Analyses
c. Current Approach and Key Assumptions
2. Valuation of Other Emissions Reductions
V. Analytical Results
A. Trial Standard Levels
1. TSLs for Energy Efficiency
2. TSLs for Standby Mode and Off Mode Power
B. Economic Justification and Energy Savings
1. Economic Impacts on Individual Consumers
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
b. Consumer Subgroup Analysis
c. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Sub-Groups of Small Manufacturers
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Impact Analysis
a. Significance of Energy Savings
b. Net Present Value of Consumer Costs and Benefits
c. Indirect Impacts on Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of Products
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
C. Conclusion
1. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs Considered for Furnace, Central
Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy Efficiency
2. Benefits and Burdens of TSLs Considered for Furnace, Central
Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby Mode and Off Mode Power
3. Annualized Benefits and Costs of Standards for Furnace,
Central Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy Efficiency
4. Annualized Benefits and Costs of Standards for Furnace,
Central Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby Mode and Off Mode
Power
5. Certification Requirements
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866 and 13563
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act
1. Description and Estimated Number of Small Entities Regulated
2. Description and Estimate of Compliance Requirements
a. Central Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps
b. Residential Furnaces
3. Duplication, Overlap, and Conflict With Other Rules and
Regulations
4. Significant Alternatives to the Rule
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995
D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
[[Page 37410]]
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act, 1999
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act, 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
M. Congressional Notification
VII. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Direct Final Rule
A. The Energy Conservation Standard Levels
Title III, Part B \1\ of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of
1975 (EPCA or the Act), Public Law 94-163 (42 U.S.C. 6291-6309, as
codified), established the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer
Products Other Than Automobiles. Pursuant to EPCA, any new or amended
energy conservation standard that DOE prescribes for certain products,
such as the residential furnaces (furnaces) and residential central air
conditioners and central air conditioning heat pumps (air conditioners
and heat pumps) \2\ that are the subject of this rulemaking, shall be
designed to ``achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency * *
* which the Secretary determines is technologically feasible and
economically justified.'' (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)) Furthermore, the
new or amended standard must ``result in significant conservation of
energy.'' (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(B)) In accordance with these and other
statutory provisions discussed in this notice, DOE adopts amended
energy conservation standards for furnaces and central air conditioners
and heat pumps. The standards for energy efficiency are shown in Table
I.1, and the standards for standby mode and off mode \3\ are shown in
Table I.2. These standards apply to all products listed in Table I.1
and manufactured in, or imported into, the United States on or after
May 1, 2013, for non-weatherized gas and oil-fired furnaces and mobile
home gas furnaces, and on or after January 1, 2015, for weatherized
furnaces and central air conditioners and heat pumps.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ For editorial reasons, upon codification in the U.S. Code,
Part B was redesignated Part A.
\2\ ``Residential central air conditioner'' is a product that
provides cooling only. It is often paired with a separate electric
or gas furnace. ``Residential central air conditioning heat pump''
is a product that provides both cooling and heating, with the
cooling provided in the same manner as a residential central air
conditioner and the heating provided by a heat pump mechanism. In
this document, ``residential central air conditioners and central
air conditioning heat pumps'' are referred to collectively as
``central air conditioners and heat pumps,'' and separately as ``air
conditioners'' (cooling only) and ``heat pumps'' (both cooling and
heating), respectively.
\3\ In this rule, DOE is changing the nomenclature for the
standby mode and off mode power consumption metrics for furnaces
from those in the furnace and boiler test procedure final rule
published on October 20, 2010. 75 FR 64621. DOE is renaming the
PSB and POFF metrics as PW,SB and
PW,OFF, respectively. However, the substance of these
metrics remains unchanged.
Table I.1--Amended Energy Conservation Standards for Furnace, Central
Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Energy Efficiency
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northern Region **
Product class National standards standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential Furnaces *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-weatherized gas............. AFUE = 80%........ AFUE = 90%.
Mobile home gas................. AFUE = 80%........ AFUE = 90%.
Non-weatherized oil-fired....... AFUE = 83%........ AFUE = 83%.
Weatherized gas................. AFUE = 81%........ AFUE = 81%.
Mobile home oil-fired AFUE = 75%........ AFUE = 75%.
[Dagger][Dagger].
Weatherized oil-fired AFUE = 78%........ AFUE = 78%.
[Dagger][Dagger].
Electric [Dagger][Dagger]....... AFUE = 78%........ AFUE = 78%.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Southeastern Region
Product class National standards [dagger][dagger] Southwestern Region
standards [Dagger] standards
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps [dagger]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Split-system air conditioners....... SEER = 13.............. SEER = 14............... SEER = 14.
EER = 12.2 (for units
with a rated cooling
capacity less than
45,000 Btu/h).
EER = 11.7 (for units
with a rated cooling
capacity equal to or
greater than 45,000
Btu/h).
Split-system heat pumps............. SEER = 14.............. SEER = 14............... SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.2............. HSPF = 8.2.............. HSPF = 8.2.
Single-package air conditioners SEER = 14.............. SEER = 14............... SEER = 14.
[Dagger][Dagger].
EER = 11.0.
Single-package heat pumps........... SEER = 14.............. SEER = 14............... SEER = 14.
HSPF = 8.0............. HSPF = 8.0.............. HSPF = 8.0.
Small-duct, high-velocity systems... SEER = 13.............. SEER = 13............... SEER = 13.
HSPF = 7.7............. HSPF = 7.7.............. HSPF = 7.7.
Space-constrained products--air SEER = 12.............. SEER = 12............... SEER = 12.
conditioners [Dagger][Dagger].
Space-constrained products--heat SEER = 12.............. SEER = 12............... SEER = 12.
pumps [Dagger][Dagger].
HSPF = 7.4............. HSPF = 7.4.............. HSPF = 7.4.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* AFUE is annual fuel utilization efficiency.
** The Northern region for furnaces contains the following States: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho,
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New
Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah,
Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
[[Page 37411]]
[dagger] SEER is Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio; EER is Energy Efficiency Ratio; HSPF is Heating Seasonal
Performance Factor; and Btu/h is British thermal units per hour.
[dagger][dagger] The Southeastern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the following
States: Alabama,, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi,
North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia, and the District of Columbia.
[Dagger] The Southwestern region for central air conditioners and heat pumps contains the States of Arizona,
California, Nevada, and New Mexico.
[Dagger][Dagger] DOE is not amending energy conservation standards for these product classes in this rule.
Table I.2--Amended Energy Conservation Standards for Furnace, Central
Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby Mode and Off Mode*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standby mode and off mode standard
Product class levels
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Residential Furnaces*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-weatherized gas............... PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
Mobile home gas................... PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
Non-weatherized oil-fired......... PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
Mobile home oil-fired............. PW,SB = 11 watts.
PW,OFF = 11 watts.
Electric.......................... PW,SB = 10 watts.
PW,OFF = 10 watts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Central Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps [dagger][dagger]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Product class Off mode standard levels
[dagger][dagger]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Split-system air conditioners..... PW,OFF = 30 watts.
Split-system heat pumps........... PW,OFF = 33 watts.
Single-package air conditioners... PW,OFF = 30 watts.
Single-package heat pumps......... PW,OFF = 33 watts.
Small-duct, high-velocity systems. PW,OFF = 30 watts.
Space-constrained air conditioners PW,OFF = 30 watts.
Space-constrained heat pumps...... PW,OFF = 33 watts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* PW,SB is standby mode electrical power consumption, and PW,OFF is off
mode electrical power consumption. For furnaces, DOE is proposing to
change the nomenclature for the standby mode and off mode power
consumption metrics for furnaces from those in the furnace and boiler
test procedure final rule published on October 20, 2010. 75 FR 64621.
DOE is renaming the PSB and POFF metrics as PW,SB and PW,OFF,
respectively. However, the substance of these metrics remains
unchanged.
** Standby mode and off mode energy consumption for weatherized gas and
oil-fired furnaces is regulated as a part of single-package air
conditioners and heat pumps, as discussed in section III.E.1.
[dagger] PW,OFF is off mode electrical power consumption for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.
[dagger][dagger] DOE is not adopting a separate standby mode standard
level for central air conditioners and heat pumps, because standby
mode power consumption for these products is already regulated by SEER
and HSPF.
B. Benefits and Costs to Consumers
The projected economic impacts of the standards in this rule on
individual consumers are generally positive. For the standards on
energy efficiency, the estimated average life-cycle cost (LCC) \4\
savings for consumers are $155 for non-weatherized gas furnaces in the
northern region, $419 for mobile home gas furnaces in the northern
region, and $15 for non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces at a national
level. (The standards in this rule on energy efficiency would have no
impact for consumers of non-weatherized gas furnaces and mobile home
gas furnaces in the southern region.) The estimated LCC savings for
consumers are $93 and $107 for split system air conditioners (coil
only) in the hot-humid and hot-dry regions,\5\ respectively; $89 and
$101 for split system air conditioners (blower coil) in the hot-humid
and hot-dry regions, respectively; $102 and $175 for split system heat
pumps in the hot-humid and hot-dry regions, respectively, and $4 for
the rest of the country; $37 for single package air conditioners in the
entire country; and $104 for single package heat pumps in the entire
country.\6\ For small-duct, high-velocity systems, no consumers would
be impacted by the standards in this rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ The LCC is the total consumer expense over the life of a
product, consisting of purchase and installation costs plus
operating costs (expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair).
To compute the operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs
to the time of purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the
product.
\5\ Throughout this notice, the terms ``hot-humid'' and ``hot-
dry'' are used interchangeably with the terms ``southeastern'' and
``southwestern,'' respectively, when referring to the two southern
regions for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
\6\ For single-package air conditioners and single-package heat
pumps, DOE has analyzed the regional standards on a national basis
because the standard would be identical in each region.
Additionally, given the low level of shipments of these products,
DOE determined that an analysis of regional standards would not
produce significant differences in comparison to a single national
standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the national standards in this rule on standby mode and off
mode power, the estimated average LCC savings for consumers are $2 for
non-weatherized gas furnaces, $0 for mobile home gas furnaces and
electric furnaces, $1 for non-weatherized oil-fired furnaces, $84 for
split system air conditioners (coil only), $40 for split system air
conditioners (blower coil), $9 for split system heat pumps, $41 for
single package air conditioners, $9 for single package heat pumps and
$37 for small-duct, high-velocity (SDHV) systems.
C. Impact on Manufacturers
The industry net present value (INPV) is the sum of the discounted
cash flows to the industry from the base year through the end of the
analysis period (2010 through 2045). Using a real discount rate of 8.0
percent, DOE
[[Page 37412]]
estimates that the INPV for manufacturers of furnaces, central air
conditioners, and heat pumps in the base case (without amended
standards) is $8.50 billion in 2009$. For the standards in this rule on
energy efficiency, DOE expects that manufacturers may lose 5.6 to 10.6
percent of their INPV, or approximately $0.48 billion to $0.90 billion.
For the standards in this rule on standby mode and off mode power, DOE
expects that manufacturers may lose up to 2.9 percent of their INPV, or
approximately $0.25 billion.
D. National Benefits
DOE's analyses indicate that the standards in this rule for energy
efficiency and standby mode and off mode power would save a significant
amount of energy--an estimated 3.36 to 4.38 quads of cumulative energy
in 2013-2045 for furnaces and in 2015-2045 for central air conditioners
and heat pumps.\7\ This amount is comprised of savings of 3.20 to 4.22
quads for the standards in this rule on energy efficiency and 0.16
quads for the standards in this rule on standby mode and off mode
power. The total amount is approximately one-fifth of the amount of
total energy used annually by the U.S. residential sector. In addition,
DOE expects the energy savings from the standards in this rule to
eliminate the need for approximately 3.80 to 3.92 gigawatts (GW) of
generating capacity by 2045.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ DOE has calculated the energy savings over a period that
begins in the year in which compliance with the proposed standards
would be required (as described in the text preceding Table I.1) and
continues through 2045. DOE used the same end year (2045) for both
types of products to be consistent with the end year that it used in
analyzing other standard levels that it considered. See section IV.G
of this notice for further discussion.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The cumulative national net present value (NPV) of total consumer
costs and savings of the standards in this rule for products shipped in
2013-2045 for furnaces and in 2015-2045 for central air conditioners
and heat pumps, in 2009$, ranges from $4.30 billion to $4.58 billion
(at a 7-percent discount rate) to $15.9 billion to $18.7 billion (at a
3-percent discount rate).\8\ This NPV is the estimated total value of
future operating-cost savings during the analysis period, minus the
estimated increased product costs (including installation), discounted
to 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ DOE uses discount rates of 7 and 3 percent based on guidance
from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB Circular A-4, section
E (Sept. 17, 2003)). See section IV.G of this notice for further
information.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In addition, the standards in this rule would have significant
environmental benefits. The energy savings would result in cumulative
greenhouse gas emission reductions of 113 million to 143 million metric
tons (Mt) \9\ of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2013-2045 for
furnaces and in 2015-2045 for central air conditioners and heat pumps.
During this period, the standards in this rule would also result in
emissions reductions of 97 to 124 thousand tons of nitrogen oxides
(NOX) and 0.143 to 0.169 ton of mercury (Hg).\10\ DOE
estimates the present monetary value of the total CO2
emissions reductions is between $0.574 billion and $11.8 billion,
expressed in 2009$ and discounted to 2011 using a range of discount
rates (see notes to Table I.3). DOE also estimates the present monetary
value of the NOX emissions reductions, expressed in 2009$
and discounted to 2011, is between $12.7 million and $169 million at a
7-percent discount rate, and between $30.7 million and $403 million at
a 3-percent discount rate.\11\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\9\ A metric ton is equivalent to 1.1 short tons. Results for
NOX and Hg are presented in short tons.
\10\ DOE calculates emissions reductions relative to the most
recent version of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference case
forecast. As noted in section 15.2.4 of TSD chapter 15, this
forecast accounts for regulatory emissions reductions through 2008,
including the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR, 70 FR 25162 (May 12,
2005)), but not the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR, 70 FR 28606 (May
18, 2005)). Subsequent regulations, including the currently proposed
CAIR replacement rule, the Clean Air Transport Rule (75 FR 45210
(Aug. 2, 2010)), do not appear in the forecast.
\11\ DOE is aware of multiple agency efforts to determine the
appropriate range of values used in evaluating the potential
economic benefits of reduced Hg emissions. DOE has decided to await
further guidance regarding consistent valuation and reporting of Hg
emissions before it once again monetizes Hg emissions reductions in
its rulemakings.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The benefits and costs of the standards in this rule can also be
expressed in terms of annualized values. The annualized monetary values
are the sum of: (1) The annualized national economic value, expressed
in 2009$, of the benefits from operating products that meet the
standards in this rule (consisting primarily of operating cost savings
from using less energy, minus increases in equipment purchase costs,
which is another way of representing consumer NPV), and (2) the
monetary value of the benefits of emission reductions, including
CO2 emission reductions.\12\ The value of the CO2
reductions, otherwise known as the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), is
calculated using a range of values per metric ton of CO2
developed by a recent interagency process. The monetary costs and
benefits of cumulative emissions reductions are reported in 2009$ to
permit comparisons with the other costs and benefits in the same dollar
units. The derivation of the SCC values is discussed in further detail
in section IV.M.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ DOE used a two-step calculation process to convert the
time-series of costs and benefits into annualized values. First, DOE
calculated a present value in 2011, the year used for discounting
the NPV of total consumer costs and savings, for the time-series of
costs and benefits using discount rates of three and seven percent
for all costs and benefits except for the value of CO2
reductions. For the latter, DOE used a range of discount rates, as
shown in Table I.3. From the present value, DOE then calculated the
fixed annual payment over a 32-year period, starting in 2011 that
yields the same present value. The fixed annual payment is the
annualized value. Although DOE calculated annualized values, this
does not imply that the time-series of cost and benefits from which
the annualized values were determined would be a steady stream of
payments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although combining the values of operating savings and
CO2 emission reductions provides a useful perspective, two
issues should be considered. First, the national operating savings are
domestic U.S. consumer monetary savings that occur as a result of
market transactions, whereas the value of CO2 reductions is
based on a global value. Second, the assessments of operating cost
savings and CO2 savings are performed with different methods
that use quite different time frames for analysis. The national
operating cost savings is measured for the lifetime of products shipped
in 2013-2045 for furnaces and 2015-2045 for central air conditioners
and heat pumps. The SCC values, on the other hand, reflect the present
value of future climate-related impacts resulting from the emission of
one metric ton of carbon dioxide in each year. These impacts continue
well beyond 2100.
Estimates of annualized benefits and costs of the standards in this
rule for furnace, central air conditioner, and heat pump energy
efficiency are shown in Table I.3. The results under the primary
estimate are as follows. Using a 7-percent discount rate for consumer
impacts and the SCC series that has a value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in
2009$), the cost of the standards in this rule is $527 million to $773
million per year in increased equipment costs, while the annualized
benefits are $837 million to $1106 million per year in reduced
equipment operating costs, $140 million to $178 million in
CO2 reductions, and $5.3 million to $6.9 million in reduced
NOX emissions. In this case, the net benefit amounts to $456
million to $517 million per year. DOE also calculated annualized net
benefits using a range of potential electricity and equipment price
trend forecasts. Given the range of
[[Page 37413]]
modeled price trends, the range of net benefits in this case is from
$295 million to $623 million per year. The low estimate in Table I.3
corresponds to a scenario with a low electricity price trend and a
constant real price trend for equipment, while the high estimate
reflects a high electricity price trend and a strong declining real
price trend for equipment.
Using a 3-percent discount rate for consumer impacts and the SCC
series that has a value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$), the cost of
the standards in this rule is $566 million to $825 million per year in
increased equipment costs, while the benefits are $1289 million to
$1686 million per year in reduced operating costs, $140 million to $178
million in CO2 reductions, and $7.9 million to $10.2 million
in reduced NOX emissions. In this case, the net benefit
amounts to $871 million to $1049 million per year. DOE also calculated
annualized net benefits using a range of potential electricity and
equipment price trend forecasts. Given the range of modeled price
trends, the range of net benefits in this case is from $601 million to
$1,260 million per year. The low estimate corresponds to a scenario
with a low electricity price trend and a constant real price trend for
equipment, while the high estimate reflects a high electricity price
trend and a strong declining real price trend for equipment.
Table I.3--Annualized Benefits and Costs of Standards for Furnace and Central Air Conditioner and Heat Pump Energy Efficiency (TSL 4) *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Discount rate --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary estimate ** Low estimate ** High estimate **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings.......... 7%............................. 837 to 1,106............... 723 to 959................. 955 to 1,258.
3%............................. 1,289 to 1,686............. 1,083 to 1,422............. 1,493 to 1,948.
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t [dagger] 5%............................. 34 to 43................... 34 to 43................... 34 to 43.
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t 3%............................. 140 to 178................. 141 to 178................. 140 to 178.
[dagger].
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t 2.5%........................... 224 to 284................. 225 to 285................. 224 to 284.
[dagger].
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t 3%............................. 427 to 541................. 428 to 543................. 427 to 541.
[dagger].
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton 7%............................. 5.3 to 6.9................. 5.3 to 7.0................. 5.3 to 6.9.
[dagger].
3%............................. 7.9 to 10.2................ 7.9 to 10.3................ 7.9 to 10.2.
Total [dagger][dagger]...... 7% plus CO2 range.............. 876 to 1,653............... 762 to 1,509............... 994 to 1,805.
7%............................. 983 to 1,290............... 869 to 1,144............... 1,100 to 1,442.
3%............................. 1,437 to 1,874............. 1,232 to 1,611............. 1,641 to 2,136.
3% plus CO2 range.............. 1,330 to 2,237............. 1,125 to 1,975............. 1,535 to 2,499.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Product Costs....... 7%............................. 527 to 773................. 574 to 840................. 555 to 819.
3%............................. 566 to 825................. 630 to 916................. 599 to 876.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits/Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total [dagger][dagger]...... 7% plus CO2 range.............. 349 to 880................. 188 to 669................. 438 to 986.
7%............................. 456 to 517................. 295 to 305................. 545 to 623.
3%............................. 871 to 1,049............... 601 to 695................. 1,042 to 1,260.
3% plus CO2 range.............. 764 to 1,412............... 494 to 1,059............... 935 to 1,623.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013-2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015-2045 for the central air conditioner and
heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case,
and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the Low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects constant prices (no learning
rate) for product prices, and the High estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high learning rate) for product
prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
[dagger] The CO2 values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of
$4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates,
respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount rate. The value
for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE's analysis.
[dagger][dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate,
which is $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ``7% plus CO2 range'' and ``3% plus CO2 range,'' the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
Estimates of annualized benefits and costs of the standards in this
rule for furnace, central air conditioner, and heat pump standby mode
and off mode power are shown in Table I.4. The results under the
primary estimate are as follows. Using a 7-percent discount rate and
the SCC value of $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$), the cost of the
standards in this rule is $16.4 million per year in increased equipment
costs, while the annualized benefits are $46.5 million per year in
reduced equipment operating costs, $12.4 million in CO2
reductions, and $0.4 million in reduced NOX emissions. In
this case, the net benefit amounts to $42.8 million per year. Using a
3-percent discount rate and the SCC value of $22.10/ton in 2010 (in
2009$), the cost of the standards in this rule is $19.1 million per
year in increased equipment costs, while the benefits are $79.3 million
per year in reduced operating costs, $12.4 million in CO2
reductions, and $0.6 million in reduced NOX emissions. In
this case, the net benefit amounts to $73.2 million per year.
[[Page 37414]]
Table I.4--Annualized Benefits and Costs of Standards for Furnace, Central Air Conditioner, and Heat Pump Standby Mode and Off Mode (TSL 2) *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monetized (million 2009$/year)
Discount rate ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary estimate ** Low estimate ** High estimate **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Operating Cost Savings......... 7%............................. 46.5....................... 40.4....................... 52.8.
3%............................. 79.3....................... 67.9....................... 90.8.
CO2 Reduction at $4.9/t 5%............................. 2.9........................ 2.9........................ 2.9.
[dagger].
CO2 Reduction at $22.1/t 3%............................. 12.4....................... 12.4....................... 12.4.
[dagger].
CO2 Reduction at $36.3/t 2.5%........................... 19.9....................... 19.9....................... 19.9.
[dagger].
CO2 Reduction at $67.1/t 3%............................. 37.6....................... 37.6....................... 37.6.
[dagger].
NOX Reduction at $2,519/ton 7%............................. 0.4........................ 0.4........................ 0.4.
[dagger].
3%............................. 0.6........................ 0.6........................ 0.6.
Total [dagger][dagger]..... 7% plus CO2 range.............. 49.7 to 84.5............... 43.6 to 78.4............... 56.1 to 90.8.
7%............................. 59.2....................... 53.1....................... 65.5.
3%............................. 92.3....................... 80.9....................... 103.8.
3% plus CO2 range.............. 82.8 to 117.5.............. 71.4 to 106.2.............. 94.3 to 129.1.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Incremental Product Costs...... 7%............................. 16.4....................... 15.2....................... 17.7.
3%............................. 19.1....................... 17.6....................... 20.6.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits/Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total [dagger][dagger]..... 7% plus CO2 range.............. 33.3 to 68.1............... 28.5 to 63.2............... 38.4 to 73.1.
7%............................. 42.8....................... 38.0....................... 47.9.
3%............................. 73.2....................... 63.3....................... 83.2.
3% plus CO2 range.............. 63.7 to 98.4............... 53.8 to 88.5............... 73.7 to 108.5.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The benefits and costs are calculated for products shipped in 2013-2045 for the furnace standards and in 2015-2045 for the central air conditioner and
heat pump standards.
** The Primary, Low, and High Estimates utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case,
and High Economic Growth case, respectively. In addition, the low estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects constant prices (no learning
rate) for product prices, and the high estimate uses incremental product costs that reflects a declining trend (high learning rate) for product
prices. The derivation and application of learning rates for product prices is explained in section IV.F.1.
[dagger] The CO2 values represent global monetized values (in 2009$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of
$4.9, $22.1, and $36.3 per metric ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5-percent, 3-percent, and 2.5-percent discount rates,
respectively. The value of $67.1 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3-percent discount rate. The value
for NOX (in 2009$) is the average of the low and high values used in DOE's analysis.
[dagger][dagger] Total Benefits for both the 3-percent and 7-percent cases are derived using the SCC value calculated at a 3-percent discount rate,
which is $22.1/ton in 2010 (in 2009$). In the rows labeled as ``7% plus CO2 range'' and ``3% plus CO2 range,'' the operating cost and NOX benefits are
calculated using the labeled discount rate, and those values are added to the full range of CO2 values.
E. Conclusion
Based on the analyses culminating in this rule, DOE has concluded
that the benefits of the standards in this rule (energy savings,
positive NPV of consumer benefits, consumer LCC savings, and emission
reductions) would outweigh the burdens (loss of INPV for manufacturers
and LCC increases for some consumers). DOE has concluded that the
standards in this rule represent the maximum improvement in energy
efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified,
and would result in the significant conservation of energy. DOE further
notes that products achieving these standard levels are already
commercially available for all of the product classes covered by
today's proposal.
II. Introduction
The following sections briefly discuss the statutory authority
underlying today's direct final rule, as well as some of the relevant
historical background related to the establishment of standards for
residential furnaces and residential central air conditioners and heat
pumps.
A. Authority
Title III, Part B of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975
(EPCA or the Act), Public Law 94-163 (42 U.S.C. 6291-6309, as codified)
established the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products Other
Than Automobiles,\13\ a program covering most major household
appliances (collectively referred to as ``covered products''), which
includes the types of residential central air conditioners and heat
pumps and furnaces that are the subject of this rulemaking. (42 U.S.C.
6292(a)(3) and (5)) EPCA prescribed energy conservation standards for
central air conditioners and heat pumps and directed DOE to conduct two
cycles of rulemakings to determine whether to amend these standards.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(d)(1)-(3)) The statute also prescribed standards for
furnaces, except for ``small'' furnaces (i.e., those units with an
input capacity less than 45,000 British thermal units per hour (Btu/
h)), for which EPCA directed DOE to prescribe standards. (42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(1)-(2)) Finally, EPCA directed DOE to conduct rulemakings to
determine whether to amend the standards for furnaces. (42 U.S.C.
6295(f)(4)(A)-(C)) As explained in further detail in section II.B,
``Background,'' this rulemaking represents the second round of
amendments to both the central air conditioner/heat pump and the
furnaces standards, under the authority of 42 U.S.C. 6295(d)(3)(B) and
(f)(4)(C), respectively.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\13\ For editorial reasons, upon codification in the U.S. Code,
Part B was redesignated Part A.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE notes that this rulemaking is one of the required agency
actions in two court orders. First, pursuant to the
[[Page 37415]]
consolidated Consent Decree in State of New York, et al. v. Bodman, et
al., 05 Civ. 7807 (LAP), and Natural Resources Defense Council, et al.
v. Bodman, et al., 05 Civ. 7808 (LAP), DOE is required to complete a
final rule for amended energy conservation standards for residential
central air conditioners and heat pumps that must be sent to the
Federal Register by June 30, 2011. Second, pursuant to the Voluntary
Remand in State of New York, et al. v. Department of Energy, et al.,
08-0311-ag(L); 08-0312-ag(con), DOE agreed to complete a final rule to
consider amendments to the energy conservation standards for
residential furnaces which it anticipated would be sent to the Federal
Register by May 1, 2011.
DOE further notes that under 42 U.S.C. 6295(m), the agency must
periodically review its already established energy conservation
standards for a covered product. Under this requirement, the next
review that DOE would need to conduct must occur no later than six
years from the issuance of a final rule establishing or amending a
standard for a covered product.
Pursuant to EPCA, DOE's energy conservation program for covered
products consists essentially of four parts: (1) Testing; (2) labeling;
(3) the establishment of Federal energy conservation standards; and (4)
certification and enforcement procedures. The Federal Trade Commission
(FTC) is primarily responsible for labeling, and DOE implements the
remainder of the program. Subject to certain criteria and conditions,
DOE is required to develop test procedures to measure the energy
efficiency, energy use, or estimated annual operating cost of each
covered product. (42 U.S.C. 6293) Manufacturers of covered products
must use the prescribed DOE test procedure as the basis for certifying
to DOE that their products comply with the applicable energy
conservation standards adopted under EPCA and when making
representations to the public regarding the energy use or efficiency of
those products. (42 U.S.C. 6293(c) and 6295(s)) Similarly, DOE must use
these test procedures to determine whether the products comply with
standards adopted pursuant to EPCA. Id. The DOE test procedures for
central air conditioners and heat pumps, and for furnaces, appear at
title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) part 430, subpart B,
appendices M and N, respectively.
DOE must follow specific statutory criteria for prescribing amended
standards for covered products. As indicated above, any amended
standard for a covered product must be designed to achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and
economically justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)) Furthermore, DOE may
not adopt any standard that would not result in the significant
conservation of energy. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)) Moreover, DOE may not
prescribe a standard: (1) For certain products, including both furnaces
and central air conditioners and heat pumps, if no test procedure has
been established for the product, or (2) if DOE determines by rule that
the proposed standard is not technologically feasible or economically
justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(A)-(B)) In deciding whether a standard
is economically justified, DOE must determine whether the benefits of
the standard exceed its burdens. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) DOE must
make this determination after receiving comments on the proposed
standard, and by considering, to the greatest extent practicable, the
following seven factors:
1. The economic impact of the standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the products subject to the standard;
2. The savings in operating costs throughout the estimated average
life of the covered products in the type (or class) compared to any
increase in the price, initial charges, or maintenance expenses for the
covered products that are likely to result from the imposition of the
standard;
3. The total projected amount of energy, or as applicable, water,
savings likely to result directly from the imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the performance of the covered
products likely to result from the imposition of the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of competition, as determined in
writing by the Attorney General, that is likely to result from the
imposition of the standard;
6. The need for national energy and water conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary of Energy (the Secretary) considers
relevant. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)-(VII))
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007; Pub.
L. 110-140) amended EPCA, in relevant part, to grant DOE authority to
issue a final rule (hereinafter referred to as a ``direct final rule'')
establishing an energy conservation standard on receipt of a statement
submitted jointly by interested persons that are fairly representative
of relevant points of view (including representatives of manufacturers
of covered products, States, and efficiency advocates), as determined
by the Secretary, that contains recommendations with respect to an
energy or water conservation standard that are in accordance with the
provisions of 42 U.S.C. 6295(o). A notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR)
that proposes an identical energy efficiency standard must be published
simultaneously with the final rule, and DOE must provide a public
comment period of at least 110 days on this proposal. 42 U.S.C.
6295(p)(4). Not later than 120 days after issuance of the direct final
rule, if one or more adverse comments or an alternative joint
recommendation are received relating to the direct final rule, the
Secretary must determine whether the comments or alternative
recommendation may provide a reasonable basis for withdrawal under 42
U.S.C. 6295(o) or other applicable law. If the Secretary makes such a
determination, DOE must withdraw the direct final rule and proceed with
the simultaneously-published NOPR. DOE must publish in the Federal
Register the reason why the direct final rule was withdrawn. Id.
The Consent Decree in State of New York, et al. v. Bodman, et al.,
described above, defines a ``final rule'' to have the same meaning as
in 42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4) and defines ``final action'' as a final
decision by DOE. As this direct final rule is issued under authority at
42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(4) and constitutes a final decision by DOE which
becomes legally effective 120 days after issuance, absent an adverse
comment that leads the Secretary to withdraw the direct final rule, DOE
asserts that issuance of this direct final rule on or before the date
required by the court constitutes compliance with the Consent Decree in
State of New York, et al. v. Bodman, et al.
EPCA, as codified, also contains what is known as an ``anti-
backsliding'' provision, which prevents the Secretary from prescribing
any amended standard that either increases the maximum allowable energy
use or decreases the minimum required energy efficiency of a covered
product. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(1)) Also, the Secretary may not prescribe
an amended or new standard if interested persons have established by a
preponderance of the evidence that the standard is likely to result in
the unavailability in the United States of any covered product type (or
class) of performance characteristics (including reliability),
features, sizes, capacities, and volumes that are substantially the
same as those generally available in the United States. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(4))
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Further, EPCA, as codified, establishes a rebuttable presumption
that a standard is economically justified if the Secretary finds that
the additional cost to the consumer of purchasing a product complying
with an energy conservation standard level will be less than three
times the value of the energy savings during the first year that the
consumer will receive as a result of the standard, as calculated under
the applicable test procedure. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii))
Additionally, 42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(1) specifies requirements when
promulgating a standard for a type or class of covered product that has
two or more subcategories. DOE must specify a different standard level
than that which applies generally to such type or class of products
``for any group of covered products which have the same function or
intended use, if * * * products within such group--(A) consume a
different kind of energy from that consumed by other covered products
within such type (or class); or (B) have a capacity or other
performance-related feature which other products within such type (or
class) do not have and such feature justifie