Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Small Electric Motors, 10874-10948 [2010-4358]
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10874
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
Mr. Michael Kido, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of General Counsel, GC–
72, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585, (202) 586–8145,
e-mail: Michael.Kido@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket Number EERE–2007–BT–STD–
0007]
RIN 1904–AB70
Energy Conservation Program: Energy
Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors
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AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Final rule.
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of
Energy (DOE) is adopting energy
conservation standards for small electric
motors. DOE has determined that these
standards will result in significant
conservation of energy, and are
technologically feasible and
economically justified.
DATES: Effective Date: The effective date
of this rule is April 8, 2010. The
standards established in today’s final
rule will be applicable starting March 9,
2015.
ADDRESSES: For access to the docket to
read background documents, the
technical support document, transcripts
of the public meetings in this
proceeding, or comments received, visit
the U.S. Department of Energy, Resource
Room of the Building Technologies
Program, 950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., 6th
Floor, Washington, DC 20024, (202)
586–2945, between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m.,
Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays. Please call Ms. Brenda
Edwards at the above telephone number
for additional information regarding
visiting the Resource Room. (Note:
DOE’s Freedom of Information Reading
Room no longer houses rulemaking
materials.) You may also obtain copies
of certain previous rulemaking
documents in this proceeding (i.e.,
framework document, notice of public
meeting and availability of preliminary
technical support document, notice of
proposed rulemaking, draft analyses,
public meeting materials, and related
test procedure documents from the
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy’s Web site at https://
www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/commercial/
small_electric_motors.html).
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr.
James Raba, U.S. Department of Energy,
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program, EE–2J, 1000
Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121, (202) 586–
8654, e-mail: Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov.
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Table of Contents
I. Summary of the Final Rule and Its Benefits
A. Energy Conservation Standards Levels
B. Benefits and Burdens to Customers of
Small Electric Motors
C. Impact on Manufacturers
D. National Benefits
E. Conclusion
II. Introduction
A. Authority
B. Background
1. Current Energy Conservation Standards
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Small Electric Motors
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
C. Energy Savings
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Motor Customers
and Manufacturers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Equipment
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation to Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion of
Comments on Methodology
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
a. Motor Categories
b. Horsepower Ratings
c. Performance Requirements
d. Motor Enclosures
e. Frame Sizes
f. Insulation Class Systems
g. Service Factors
h. Metric Equivalents and Non-Standard
Horsepower and Kilowatt Ratings
i. Summary
2. Product Classes
B. Screening Analysis
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Product Classes Analyzed
2. Baseline Models
a. Baseline Efficiencies
b. Baseline Temperature Rise
c. Baseline Motor Performance
3. Higher Efficiency Motor Designs
a. Electrical Steel
b. Thermal Analysis
c. Performance Requirements
d. Stray Load Loss
e. Stack Length and Core Diameter
4. Cost Model
5. Efficiency Scaling
6. Cost-Efficiency Results
D. Markups to Determine Equipment Price
E. Energy Use Characterization
1. Applications
2. Annual Hours of Operation and Motor
Loading
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F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analysis
1. Installation Cost
2. Energy Prices
3. Energy Price Trend
4. Maintenance and Repair Costs
5. Equipment Lifetime
6. Discount Rates
7. Space-Constrained Applications and the
After-Market
8. Standard Compliance Date
G. National Impact Analysis—National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
Analysis
1. General
2. Shipments
3. Space Constraints
4. Base-Case and Standards-Case Efficiency
Distributions
5. Annual Energy Consumption per Unit
H. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Capital Conversion and Equipment
Conversion Costs
2. Manufacturer Selling Prices
3. Markup Scenarios
4. Premium Electrical Steels
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
L. Environmental Assessment
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and Other
Emissions Impacts
1. Social Cost of Carbon
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in
Past Regulatory Analyses
c. Approach and Key Assumptions
2. Monetary Values of Non-Carbon
Emissions
V. Discussion of Other Comments
A. Trial Standard Levels
B. Enforcement
C. Nominal Full-Load Efficiency
VI. Analytical Results and Conclusions
A. Trial Standard Levels
B. Significance of Energy Savings
C. Economic Justification
1. Economic Impact on Motor Customers
a. Life-Cycle Costs and Payback Period
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity Calculations
c. Customer Subgroup Analysis
d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impact on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Net Present Value and Net
National Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
Equipment
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
D. Conclusion
VII. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility
Act
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
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G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 1999
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality
Bulletin for Peer Review
M. Congressional Notification
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Final Rule and Its
Benefits
A. Energy Conservation Standards
Levels
The Energy Policy and Conservation
Act, as amended (42 U.S.C. 6291 et seq.;
EPCA or the Act), directs the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) to adopt
energy conservation standards for those
small electric motors for which
standards would be technologically
feasible and economically justified, and
10875
would result in significant energy
savings (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(1)–(2)). The
standards in today’s final rule satisfy
these requirements and will achieve the
maximum improvements in energy
efficiency that are technologically
feasible and economically justified.
Table I.1 and Table I.2 show these
standard levels, which will apply to all
small electric motors manufactured for
sale in the United States, or imported
into the United States, starting five years
after publication of this final rule.
TABLE I.1—STANDARD LEVELS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR
Motor output power
Six poles
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW ................................................................................................................
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW ..............................................................................................................
1 Hp/0.75 kW ...................................................................................................................
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW ..................................................................................................................
2 Hp/1.5 kW .....................................................................................................................
3 Hp/2.2 kW .....................................................................................................................
Four poles
67.5
71.4
75.3
81.7
82.5
83.8
N/A
N/A
69.5
73.4
78.2
81.1
83.5
86.5
86.5
86.9
Two poles
65.6
69.5
73.4
76.8
77.0
84.0
85.5
85.5
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of average full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies correspond to a modified Trial Standard Level 4b for polyphase motors. For horsepower/pole configurations with efficiency
standards higher than the for general purpose electric motors (subtype I), DOE reduced the standard level to align with regulations in 10 CFR
431.25. See section VI for further discussion.
TABLE I.2—STANDARD LEVELS FOR CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN AND CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR-RUN SMALL
ELECTRIC MOTORS
Motor output power
Six poles
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW ................................................................................................................
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW ..............................................................................................................
1 Hp/0.75 kW ...................................................................................................................
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW ..................................................................................................................
2 Hp/1.5 kW .....................................................................................................................
3 Hp/2.2 kW .....................................................................................................................
Four poles
62.2
66.6
76.2
80.2
81.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
68.5
72.4
76.2
81.8
82.6
83.8
84.5
N/A
Two poles
66.6
70.5
72.4
76.2
80.4
81.5
82.9
84.1
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies correspond to a modified Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors. DOE reduced efficiency standards for capacitor-start induction run motors such that they harmonize with adopted capacitor-start capacitor-run motor efficiency standards. See section VI for
further discussion.
B. Benefits and Burdens to Customers of
Small Electric Motors
Table I.3 presents the implications of
today’s standards for consumers of
small electric motors. The economic
impacts of the standards on consumers
as measured by the average life-cycle
cost (LCC) savings are positive, even
though the standards may increase some
initial costs. For example, a typical
polyphase motor has an average
installed price of $517 and average
lifetime operating costs (discounted) of
$751. To meet the amended standards,
DOE estimates that the average installed
price of such equipment will increase
by $72, which will be more than offset
by savings of $100 in average lifetime
operating costs (discounted).
TABLE I.3—IMPLICATIONS OF STANDARDS FOR COMMERCIAL CONSUMERS
Energy conservation
standard
%
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Equipment class
Polyphase, 1-horsepower, 4-pole ........................................
Capacitor-start induction-run, 1⁄2-horsepower, 4-pole .........
Capacitor-start capacitor-run, 3⁄4-horsepower, 4-pole .........
Average installed price*
$
83.5
76.2
81.8
Average installed price
increase
%
589
996
599
72
502
51
* For a baseline model.
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Average lifecycle cost
savings
$
28
¥369
24
Median payback period
years
7.8
12.4
5.9
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
C. Impact on Manufacturers
Using a real corporate discount rate of
9.7 percent, which DOE calculated by
examining the financial statements of
motor manufacturers, DOE estimates the
industry net present value (INPV) of the
small electric motor manufacturing
industry to be $70 million for polyphase
small electric motors and $279 million
for capacitor-start, or single-phase
motors (both figures in 2009$). DOE
expects the impact of the standards on
the INPV of manufacturers of small
electric motors to range from a increase
of 4.8 percent to a loss of 7.8 percent (an
increase of $3.4 million to a loss of $5.4
million) for polyphase motors and an
increase of 6.6 percent to a loss of 12.2
percent (an increase of $32.2 million to
a loss of $42.2 million) for single-phase
motors. Based on DOE’s interviews with
the major manufacturers of small
electric motors, DOE expects minimal
plant closings or loss of employment as
a result of the standards.
D. National Benefits
The standards will provide significant
benefits to the Nation. DOE estimates
the standards will save approximately
2.2 quads (quadrillion (1015) British
thermal units (BTU)) of energy over 30
years (2015–2045). This is equivalent to
about 2.2% of total annual U.S. energy
consumption.
By 2045, DOE expects the energy
savings from the standards to eliminate
the need for approximately eight new
250-megawatt (MW) power plants.
These energy savings will result in
cumulative greenhouse gas emission
reductions of approximately 112 million
tons (Mt) of carbon dioxide (CO2), or an
amount equal to that produced by
approximately 25 million new cars in a
year. Additionally, the standards will
help alleviate air pollution by resulting
in approximately 81 thousand tons (kt)
of nitrogen oxides (NOX) emission
reductions and approximately 0.49 ton
of cumulative mercury (Hg) emission
reductions from 2015 through 2045. The
estimated net present monetary value of
these emissions reductions is between
$385 and $6,081 million for CO2,
(expressed in 2009$). The estimated net
present monetary values of these
emissions reductions are between $13.2
and $63.4 million for NOX (expressed in
2009$) and $0.12 and $5.14 million for
Hg (expressed in 2009$) at a 7-percent
discount rate (discounted to 2010). At a
3 percent discount rate, the estimated
net present values of these emissions
reductions are between $17.1 and
$175.5 million (2009$) for NOX and
$0.22 and $9.66 million (2009$) for Hg.
The national NPV of the standards is
$5.3 billion using a seven-percent
discount rate and $12.5 billion using a
three-percent discount rate, cumulative
from 2015 to 2045 in 2009$. This is the
estimated total value of future savings
minus the estimated increased
equipment costs, discounted to the year
2009.
The benefits and costs of today’s rule
can also be expressed in terms of
annualized (2009$) values from 2015–
2045. Estimates of annualized values are
shown in Table I.4. The annualized
monetary values are the sum of the
annualized national economic value of
operating savings benefits (energy,
maintenance and repair), expressed in
2009$, plus the monetary value of the
benefits of CO2 emission reductions,
otherwise known as the Social Cost of
Carbon (SCC), calculated using the
average value derived using a 3%
discount rate (equivalent to $21.40 per
metric ton of CO2 emitted in 2010, in
2007$). This value is a central value
from a recent interagency process. The
monetary benefits of cumulative
emissions reductions are reported in
2009$ so that they can be compared
with the other costs and benefits in the
same dollar units. The derivation of this
value is discussed in section IV.M.
Although comparing the value of
operating savings to the value of CO2
reductions provides a valuable
perspective, please note the following:
(1) The national operating savings are
domestic U.S. consumer monetary
savings found in market transactions
while the value of CO2 reductions is
based on a global value. Also, note that
the central value is only one of four SCC
developed by the interagency
workgroup. Other marginal SCC values
for 2010 are $4.70, $35.10, and $64.90
per metric ton (2007$ for emissions in
2010), which reflect different discount
rates and, for the highest value, the
possibility of higher-than-expected
impacts further out in the tails of the
SCC distribution. (2) The assessments of
operating savings and CO2 savings are
performed with different computer
models, leading to different time frames
for analysis. The national operating cost
savings is measured for the lifetime of
small electric motors shipped in the 31year period 2015–2045. The value of
CO2, on the other hand, reflects the
present value of all future climate
related impacts due to emitting a ton of
carbon dioxide in that year, out to 2300.
Using a 7-percent discount rate for the
annualized cost analysis, the combined
cost of the standards proposed in
today’s proposed rule for small electric
motors is $263.9 million per year in
increased equipment and installation
costs, while the annualized benefits are
$855.1 million per year in reduced
equipment operating costs, $115.6
million in CO2 reductions, $3.89 million
in reduced NOX emissions, and $0.30
million in reduced Hg emissions, for a
net benefit of $711.0 million per year.
Using a 3-percent discount rate, the cost
of the standards proposed in today’s
rule is $263.7 million per year in
increased equipment and installation
costs, while the benefits of today’s
standards are $989.5 million per year in
reduced operating costs, $115.6 million
in CO2 reductions, $5.58 million in
reduced NOX emissions, and $0.29
million in reduced Hg emissions, for a
net benefit of $847.3 million per year.
TABLE I.4—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS FOR SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
Primary estimate (AEO reference case)
Category
Low estimate
(low energy
price case)
High estimate
(high energy
price case)
Units
Year dollars
Disc. rate
Period
covered
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Benefits
Energy
Annualized
Monetized
(millions$/year).
Annualized Quantified ............................
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855.1 ...............
989.5 ...............
2.29 CO2 (Mt)
1.55 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
3.13 CO2 (Mt)
2.22 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
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831.8 ...............
964.8 ...............
2.29 CO2 (Mt)
1.55 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
3.13 CO2 (Mt)
2.22 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
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870.3 ...............
1000.5 .............
2.29 CO2 (Mt)
1.55 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
3.13 CO2 (Mt)
2.22 NOX (kt) ..
0.017 Hg (t) ....
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2009
2009
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
09MRR2
7%
3%
7%
7%
7%
3%
3%
3%
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
................
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
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10877
TABLE I.4—ANNUALIZED BENEFITS AND COSTS FOR SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS—Continued
Units
Primary estimate (AEO reference case)
Category
CO2 Monetized Value (at $4.7/Metric
Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $21.4/Metric
Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $35.1/Metric
Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $64.9/Metric
Ton, millions$/year)*.
NOX Monetized Value (at $2,437/Metric
Ton, millions$/year).
Hg Monetized Value (at $17 million/
Metric Ton, millions$/year).
Total Monetary Benefits (millions$/
year)**.
Low estimate
(low energy
price case)
High estimate
(high energy
price case)
31.5 .................
31.5 .................
31.5 .................
2009
5% ................
31
115.6 ...............
115.6 ...............
115.6 ...............
2009
3% ................
31
179.2 ...............
179.2 ...............
179.2 ...............
2009
2.5% .............
31
352.5 ...............
352.5 ...............
352.5 ...............
2009
3% ................
31
3.89 .................
5.58 .................
0.3 ...................
0.29 .................
890.8–1211.8 ..
974.9 ...............
1111.0 .............
1026.9–1347.9
3.89 .................
5.58 .................
0.3 ...................
0.29 .................
867.5–1188.5 ..
951.6 ...............
1086.3 .............
1002.2–1323.2
3.89 .................
5.58 .................
0.3 ...................
0.29 .................
906.0–1227.0 ..
990.1 ...............
1121.9 .............
1037.8–1358.8
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
7%
3%
7%
3%
7%
7%
3%
3%
................
................
................
................
Range ....
................
................
Range ....
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
263.9 ...............
263.7 ...............
2009
2009
7% ................
3% ................
31
31
2009
2009
2009
2009
7%
7%
3%
3%
31
31
31
31
Year dollars
Disc. rate
Period
covered
Costs
Annualized Monetized (millions$/year) ..
263.9 ...............
263.7 ...............
263.9 ...............
263.7 ...............
Net Benefits/Costs
Annualized Monetized, including CO2
Benefits (million$/year)**.
626.9–947.9 ....
711.0 ...............
847.3 ...............
763.2–1084.3 ..
603.6–924.6 ....
687.7 ...............
822.6 ...............
738.5–1059.6 ..
642.1–963.1 ....
726.2 ...............
858.3 ...............
774.2–1095.2 ..
Range ....
................
................
Range ....
* These values represent global values (in 2007$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of $4.7,
$21.4, and $35.1 per ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5%, 3%, and 2.5% discount rates, respectively. The value of
$64.9 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3% discount rate. See section IV.M for details.
** Total Monetary Benefits for both the 3% and 7% cases utilize the central estimate of social cost of CO2 emissions calculated at a 3% discount rate (averaged across three IAMs), which is equal to $21.4/ton in 2010 (in 2007$). The rows labeled as ‘‘7% Range’’ and ‘‘3% Range’’ calculate consumer, Hg, and NOX cases with the labeled discount rate but add these values to the full range of CO2 values with the $4.7/ton value
at the low end, and the $64.9/ton value at the high end.
E. Conclusion
DOE has concluded that the benefits
(energy savings, consumer LCC savings,
national NPV increases, and emissions
reductions) to the Nation of today’s
standards for small electric motors
outweigh their costs (loss of
manufacturer INPV and consumer LCC
increases for some users of small
electric motors). DOE has also
concluded that these standards are
technologically feasible and
economically justified, and will result
in significant energy savings. Small
electric motors that are commercially
available or working prototypes use or
have used the technologies needed to
meet the new standard levels.
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II. Introduction
A. Authority
Title III of EPCA sets forth a variety
of provisions designed to improve
energy efficiency. Part A of Title III (42
U.S.C. 6291–6309) provides for the
Energy Conservation Program for
Consumer Products Other than
Automobiles. Part A–1 of Title III (42
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U.S.C. 6311–6317) establishes a similar
program for ‘‘Certain Industrial
Equipment,’’ which includes small
electric motors, the subject of this
rulemaking.1 DOE publishes today’s
final rule pursuant to Part A–1 of Title
III, which provides for test procedures,
labeling, and energy conservation
standards for small electric motors and
certain other equipment, and authorizes
DOE to require information and reports
from manufacturers. The test procedures
DOE recently adopted for small electric
motors, 74 FR 32059 (July 7, 2009),
appear at Title 10, Code of Federal
Regulations (CFR), sections 431.443,
431.444, and 431.445.
The Act defines ‘‘small electric motor’’
as follows:
[A] NEMA [National Electrical
Manufacturers Association] general purpose
alternating current single-speed induction
motor, built in a two-digit frame number
series in accordance with NEMA Standards
Publication MG1–1987.
1 These two parts were titled Parts B and C in
EPCA, but were codified as Parts A and A–1 in the
United States Code for editorial reasons.
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(42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(G)) EPCA requires
DOE to prescribe energy conservation
standards for those small electric motors
for which DOE: (1) Has determined that
standards would be technologically
feasible and economically justified and
would result in significant energy
savings, and (2) has prescribed test
procedures. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b))
However, pursuant to section 346(b)(3)
of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)), no
standard prescribed for small electric
motors shall apply to any such motor
that is a component of a covered
product under section 322(a) of EPCA
(42 U.S.C. 6292(a)), or of covered
equipment under section 340 (42 U.S.C.
6311).
Additionally, EPCA requires DOE, in
establishing standards for small electric
motors, to consider whether the
standards themselves will result in a
significant conservation of energy, are
technologically feasible, and are cost
effective as described in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i). (42 U.S.C. 6316(a))
These criteria, along with requirements
that any standards be economically
justified, are largely incorporated into
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42 U.S.C. 6295(o), which sets forth the
criteria for prescribing standards for
‘‘covered products,’’ i.e., consumer
products as defined in EPCA. (42 U.S.C.
6291(1) and (2)) Under 42 U.S.C.
6316(a), portions of 42 U.S.C. 6295,
including subsection (o), also apply
when DOE promulgates standards for
certain specified commercial and
industrial equipment—‘‘covered
equipment’’ as defined in EPCA (42
U.S.C. 6311(1))—including small
electric motors. (EPCA states that the
term ‘‘equipment’’ shall be substituted
for ‘‘product’’ in applying the consumer
product-related provisions of EPCA to
commercial and industrial equipment.
(42 U.S.C. 6316(a)(3))
Therefore, as indicated above, DOE
analyzed whether today’s standards for
small electric motors will achieve the
maximum improvement in energy
efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified. (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)) Additionally, DOE
examined whether each of today’s
standards for this equipment is
economically justified, after receiving
comments on the proposed standards,
by determining whether the benefits of
the standard exceed its burdens by
considering, to the greatest extent
practicable, the following seven factors
that are set forth in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i):
1. The economic impact of the
standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the equipment subject to
the standard;
2. The savings in operating costs
throughout the estimated average life of
the covered equipment in the type (or
class) compared to any increase in the
price, initial charges, or maintenance
expenses for the covered equipment that
are likely to result from the imposition
of the standard;
3. The total projected amount of
energy savings likely to result directly
from the imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the
performance of the covered equipment
likely to result from the imposition of
the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of
competition, as determined in writing
by the Attorney General, that is likely to
result from the imposition of the
standard;
6. The need for national energy
conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary [of
Energy] considers relevant.
In developing today’s energy
conservation standards, DOE also has
applied certain other provisions of 42
U.S.C. 6295 as it is required to do. First,
DOE would not prescribe a standard for
small electric motors if interested
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persons established by a preponderance
of the evidence that the standard is
likely to result in the unavailability in
the United States of any type (or class)
of this product with performance
characteristics, features, sizes,
capacities, and volume that are
substantially the same as those generally
available in the United States. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(4))
Second, DOE has applied 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii), which establishes a
rebuttable presumption that a standard
is economically justified if the Secretary
finds that ‘‘the additional cost to the
consumer of purchasing a product
complying with an energy conservation
standard level will be less than three
times the value of the energy * * *
savings during the first year that the
consumer will receive as a result of the
standard, as calculated under the
applicable test procedure.’’
Third, in setting standards for a type
or class of equipment that has two or
more subcategories, DOE specifies a
different standard level than that which
applies generally to such type or class
of equipment ‘‘for any group of covered
products which have the same function
or intended use, if * * * products
within such group—(A) consume a
different kind of energy from that
consumed by other covered products
within such type (or class); or (B) have
a capacity or other performance-related
feature which other products within
such type (or class) do not have and
such feature justifies a higher or lower
standard’’ than applies or will apply to
the other products. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)(1)) In determining whether a
performance-related feature justifies
such a different standard for a group of
products, DOE considers such factors as
the utility to the consumer of such a
feature and other factors DOE deems
appropriate. Any rule prescribing such
a standard must include an explanation
of the basis on which DOE establishes
such higher or lower level. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)(2))
Federal energy efficiency
requirements for equipment covered
under EPCA generally supersede State
laws or regulations concerning energy
conservation testing, labeling, and
standards. (42 U.S.C. 6297(a)–(c) and 42
U.S.C. 6316(a)) DOE can, however, grant
waivers of preemption for particular
State laws or regulations, in accordance
with the procedures and other
provisions of section 327(d) of the Act.
(42 U.S.C. 6297(d) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a))
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B. Background
1. Current Energy Conservation
Standards
As indicated above, at present there
are no national energy conservation
standards for small electric motors.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Small Electric Motors
To determine the small electric
motors for which energy conservation
standards would be technologically
feasible and economically justified, and
would result in significant energy
savings, DOE first concluded that the
EPCA definition of ‘‘small electric
motor’’ covers only those motors that
meet the definition’s frame-size
requirements, and that are either threephase, non-servo motors (referred to
below as polyphase motors) or singlephase, capacitor-start motors, including
both capacitor-start, induction run
(CSIR) and capacitor-start, capacitor-run
(CSCR) motors. 71 FR 38799, 38800–01
(July 10, 2006). In June 2006, DOE
issued a report in which it analyzed and
estimated the likely range of energy
savings and economic benefits that
would result from standards for these
motors.2 The report did not address
motors that are a component of a
covered product or equipment,
consistent with 42 U.S.C. 6317. After
receiving comments on the report, DOE
performed further analysis to determine
whether standards are warranted for
small electric motors and then issued
the following determination on June 27,
2006:
Based on its analysis of the information
now available, the Department [of Energy]
has determined that energy conservation
standards for certain small electric motors
appear to be technologically feasible and
economically justified, and are likely to
result in significant energy savings.
Consequently, the Department [of Energy]
will initiate the development of energy
efficiency test procedures and standards for
certain small electric motors. 71 FR 38807.
Thereafter, in 2007, DOE initiated this
rulemaking by issuing and seeking
public comment on the ‘‘Energy
Conservation Standards Rulemaking
Framework Document for Small Electric
Motors,’’ which described the
approaches DOE anticipated using to
develop energy conservation standards
for small electric motors and the issues
to be resolved in the rulemaking. See 72
FR 44990 (August 10, 2007). This
document is also available on the
aforementioned DOE Web site. On
September 13, 2007, DOE held a public
2 https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/
small_motors_tsd.pdf.
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meeting to present the contents of the
framework document, describe the
analyses DOE planned to conduct
during the rulemaking, obtain public
comment on these subjects, and
facilitate the public’s involvement in the
rulemaking. Manufacturers, trade
associations, electric utilities,
environmental advocates, regulators,
and other interested parties provided
comments at this meeting, and
submitted written comments, on the
Framework Document. They addressed
a range of issues.
On December 19, 2008, after having
considered these comments, gathering
additional information, and performing
preliminary analyses as to standards for
small electric motors, DOE announced
an informal public meeting and the
availability on its Web site of a
preliminary technical support document
(preliminary TSD). 73 FR 79723
(December 30, 2008). The preliminary
TSD discussed the comments DOE had
received in this rulemaking and
described the actions DOE had taken,
the analytical framework DOE was
using, and the content and results of
DOE’s preliminary analyses. Id. at
79724–25. DOE’s preliminary analyses
were largely based on comments
received from industry; including those
focusing on what constitutes small
electric motors and corresponding
shipment estimates. DOE convened the
public meeting to discuss, and receive
comments on, these subjects, DOE’s
proposed product classes, potential
standard levels that DOE might
consider, and other issues participants
believed were relevant to the
rulemaking. Id. at 79723, 79725. DOE
also invited written comments on all of
these matters. The public meeting took
place on January 30, 2009. Eighteen
interested parties participated, and ten
10879
submitted written comments during the
comment period.
On November 24, 2009, DOE
published a notice of proposed
rulemaking (NOPR) to establish small
electric motor energy conservation
standards. 74 FR 61410. Shortly after,
DOE also published on its Web site the
complete technical support document
(TSD) for the proposed rule, which
incorporated the completed analyses
DOE conducted and technical
documentation for each analysis. These
analyses were developed using, in part,
NEMA-supplied data. The TSD
included the LCC spreadsheet, the
national impact analysis spreadsheet,
and the manufacturer impact analysis
(MIA) spreadsheet—all of which are
available at https://www.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/
commercial/small_electric_motors.html.
The energy efficiency standards DOE
proposed in the NOPR were as follows:
TABLE II.1—PROPOSED STANDARD LEVELS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
Motor output power
Six poles
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW ................................................................................................................
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW ..............................................................................................................
1 Hp/0.75 kW ...................................................................................................................
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW ..................................................................................................................
2 Hp/1.5 kW .....................................................................................................................
≥ 3 Hp/2.2 kW ..................................................................................................................
Four poles
77.4
79.1
81.1
84.0
84.2
85.2
89.2
90.8
Two poles
72.7
75.6
80.1
83.5
85.2
87.1
88.0
90.0
69.8
73.7
76.0
81.6
83.6
86.6
88.2
90.5
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 5 for polyphase motors.
TABLE II.2—PROPOSED STANDARD LEVELS FOR CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
Motor output power
Six poles
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW ................................................................................................................
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW ..............................................................................................................
1 Hp/0.75 kW ...................................................................................................................
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW ..................................................................................................................
2 Hp/1.5 kW .....................................................................................................................
≥ 3 Hp/2.2 kW ..................................................................................................................
Four poles
65.4
70.7
77.0
81.0
84.1
87.7
89.8
92.2
Two poles
69.8
72.8
77.0
80.9
82.8
85.5
86.5
88.9
71.4
74.2
76.3
78.1
80.0
82.2
85.0
85.6
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors.
TABLE II.3—PROPOSED STANDARD LEVELS FOR CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR-RUN SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Motor output power
Six poles
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW ..............................................................................................................
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW ................................................................................................................
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW ..............................................................................................................
1 Hp/0.75 kW ...................................................................................................................
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW ..................................................................................................................
2 Hp/1.5 kW .....................................................................................................................
≥ 3 Hp/2.2 kW ..................................................................................................................
Four poles
63.9
69.2
75.8
79.9
83.2
87.0
89.1
91.7
68.3
71.6
76.0
80.3
82.0
84.9
86.1
88.5
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors.
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Two poles
70.0
72.9
75.1
77.0
79.0
81.4
84.2
84.9
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In the NOPR, DOE also identified
issues on which it was particularly
interested in receiving the comments
and views of interested parties. DOE
requested comment on the proposed
energy efficiency levels for polyphase
and single-phase motors, product
classes, covered insulation class
systems, its selection of baseline
models, markups used in the
engineering analysis, design option and
limitations used in the engineering
analysis, the approach to scaling the
results of the engineering analysis, the
proposed definition of nominal
efficiency, the manufacturer impact
analysis scenarios, capital investment
costs used, market interaction between
CSIR and CSCR motors, market response
to standards, behavior of customers with
space constraints, the combined effect of
certain market assumptions, the
appropriateness of other discount rates
besides seven and three percent to
discount future emissions, and the
anticipated environmental impacts. The
NOPR also included additional
background information on the history
of this rulemaking. 74 FR 61416–17.
DOE held a public meeting in
Washington, DC on December 17, 2009,
to hear oral comments on, and solicit
information relevant to, the proposed
rule. DOE has also received written
comments and information in response
to the NOPR.
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
On July 7, 2009, DOE published a
final rule that incorporated by reference
Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) Standard 112–
2004 (Test Method A and Test Method
B), IEEE Standard 114–2001, and
Canadian Standards Association
Standard C747–94 as the DOE test
procedures to measure energy efficiency
small electric motors. 74 FR 32059.
In addition to incorporating by
reference the above industry standard
test procedures, the small electric
motors test procedure final rule also
codified the statutory definition for the
term ‘‘small electric motor;’’ clarified the
definition of the term ‘‘basic model’’; and
the relationship of the term to certain
product classes and compliance
certification reporting requirements; and
codified the ability of manufacturers to
use an alternative efficiency
determination method (AEDM) to
reduce testing burden when certifying
their equipment as compliant but
maintaining efficiency measurement
accuracy and ensuring compliance with
potential future energy conservation
standards. The test procedure notice
also discussed matters of laboratory
accreditation, compliance certification,
and enforcement of energy conservation
standards for small electric motors.
DOE notes that complete certification
and enforcement provisions for small
electric motors have not yet been
developed. DOE intends to propose
such provisions in a separate test
procedure supplementary NOPR, at
which time DOE will invite comments
on how small electric motor efficiency
standards can be effectively enforced.
Section V.B of this final rule
summarizes comments received in
response to the NOPR that will be
further addressed in the test procedure
supplemental NOPR.
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
As stated above, any standards that
DOE establishes for small electric
motors must be technologically feasible.
(42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A); 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) DOE considers a design option
to be technologically feasible if it is in
use by the respective industry or if
research has progressed to the
development of a working prototype.
‘‘Technologies incorporated in
commercially available equipment or in
working prototypes will be considered
technologically feasible.’’ 10 CFR part
430, subpart C, appendix A, section
4(a)(4)(i). This final rule considers the
same design options as those evaluated
in the NOPR. (See chapter 5 of the TSD.)
All the evaluated technologies have
been used (or are being used) in
commercially available products or
working prototypes. Therefore, DOE has
determined that all of the efficiency
levels evaluated in this notice are
technologically feasible.
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
As required by EPCA, (42 U.S.C.
6295(p)(1) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)), in
developing the NOPR, DOE identified
the efficiency levels that would achieve
the maximum improvements in energy
efficiency that are technologically
feasible (max-tech levels) for small
electric motors. 74 FR 61418. Table III.1
lists the max-tech levels that DOE
determined for this rulemaking. DOE
identified these levels as part of the
engineering analysis (chapter 5 of the
TSD), using the most efficient design
parameters that lead to the highest fullload efficiencies for small electric
motors.
TABLE III.1—MAX-TECH EFFICIENCY LEVELS FOR REPRESENTATIVE PRODUCT CLASSES *
Motor category
Poles
Polyphase ................................................................................................................
CSIR ........................................................................................................................
CSCR .......................................................................................................................
Horsepower
4
4
4
1
0.5
0.75
Efficiency %
87.7
77.6
87.5
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* These max-tech efficiency levels are only for the representative product classes described in section IV.C.2. Max-tech efficiency levels for the
remaining product classes are determined using the scaling methodology outlined in section IV.C.5.
DOE developed maximum
technologically feasible efficiencies by
creating motor designs for each product
class analyzed, which use all the viable
design options that DOE considered.
The efficiency levels shown in Table
III.1 correspond to designs that use a
maximum increase in stack length, a
copper rotor design, a premium
electrical steel (Hiperco 50), a maximum
slot-fill percentage (65-percent), a
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change in run-capacitor rating (CSCR
motors only), and an optimized end ring
design. All of the design options used to
create these max-tech motors remain in
the analysis and are options that DOE
considers technologically feasible.
C. Energy Savings
DOE forecasted energy savings in its
national energy savings (NES) analysis,
through the use of an NES spreadsheet
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tool, as discussed in the NOPR. 74 FR
61418, 61440–42, 61470–72.
One of the criteria that govern DOE’s
adoption of standards for small electric
motors is that the standard must result
in ‘‘significant’’ energy savings. (42
U.S.C. 6317(b)) While the term
‘‘significant’’ is not defined by EPCA, a
D.C. Circuit indicated that Congress
intended ‘‘significant’’ energy savings to
be savings that were not ‘‘genuinely
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trivial.’’ Natural Resources Defense
Council v. Herrington, 768 F.2d 1355,
1373 (D.C. Cir. 1985) The energy savings
for the standard levels DOE is adopting
today are non-trivial, and therefore DOE
considers them ‘‘significant’’ as required
by 42 U.S.C. 6317.
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
The following section discusses how
DOE has addressed each of the seven
factors that it uses to determine if
energy conservation standards are
economically justified.
a. Economic Impact on Motor Customers
and Manufacturers
DOE considered the economic impact
of today’s new standards on purchasers
and manufacturers of small electric
motors. For purchasers of small electric
motors, DOE measured the economic
impact as the change in installed cost
and life-cycle operating costs, i.e., the
LCC. (See section IV.F of this preamble,
and chapter 12 of the TSD.) DOE
investigated the impacts on
manufacturers through the manufacturer
impact analysis (MIA). (See sections IV.I
and VI.C.2 of this preamble and chapter
13 of the TSD.) The economic impact on
purchasers and manufacturers is
discussed in detail in the NOPR. 74 FR
61418–19, 61436–40, 61442–46, and
61454–70.
b. Life-Cycle Costs
DOE considered life-cycle costs of
small electric motors, as discussed in
the NOPR. 74 FR 61436–40, 61442,
61454–64. In considering these costs,
DOE calculated the sum of the purchase
price and the operating expense—
discounted over the lifetime of the
equipment—to estimate the range in
LCC savings that small motors
purchasers would expect to achieve due
to the standards.
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c. Energy Savings
Although significant conservation of
energy is a separate statutory
requirement for imposing an energy
conservation standard, EPCA also
requires DOE, in determining the
economic justification of a standard, to
consider the total projected energy
savings that are expected to result
directly from the standard. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) As in the NOPR (74 FR 61440–
42, 61470–72), for today’s final rule,
DOE used the NES spreadsheet results
in its consideration of total projected
energy savings that are directly
attributable to the standard levels DOE
considered.
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d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Equipment
In selecting today’s standard levels,
DOE avoided selection of standards that
lessen the utility or performance of the
equipment under consideration in this
rulemaking. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) 74 FR 61419, 61476. The
efficiency levels DOE considered
maintain both motor performance and
power factor in order to preserve
consumer utility. DOE considered enduser size constraints by developing
designs with size increase restrictions
(limited to a 20-percent increase in stack
length), as well as designs with less
stringent constraints (100-percent
increase in stack length). The designs
adhering to the 20-percent increase in
stack length maintain all aspects of
consumer utility and were created for
all efficiency levels, but these designs
may become very expensive at higher
efficiency levels when compared with
DOE’s other designs.
e. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
DOE considered any lessening of
competition that is likely to result from
standards. As discussed in the NOPR,
74 FR 61419, 61476, and as required
under EPCA, DOE requested that the
Attorney General transmit to the
Secretary a written determination of the
impact, if any, of any lessening of
competition likely to result from the
standards proposed in the NOPR,
together with an analysis of the nature
and extent of such impact. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (B)(ii) and 42
U.S.C. 6316(a))
To assist the Attorney General in
making such a determination, DOE
provided the Department of Justice
(DOJ) with copies of the November 24,
2009 proposed rule and the NOPR TSD
for review. The Attorney General’s
response is discussed in IV.F.7 below,
and is reprinted at the end of this rule.
DOJ concluded that TSL 5 for polyphase
small electric motors and TSL 7 for
single-phase small electric motors are
likely to affect the replacement market
for certain applications. DOJ requested
that DOE consider this potential impact
and, as warranted, allow exemptions
from the proposed standard levels the
manufacture and marketing of certain
replacement small electric motors.
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Energy
In considering standards for small
electric motors, the Secretary must
consider the need of the Nation to
conserve energy. (42 U.S.C.
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10881
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) The Secretary recognizes that
energy conservation benefits the Nation
in several important ways. The nonmonetary benefits of the standard are
likely to be reflected in improvements to
the security and reliability of the
Nation’s energy system. Today’s
standard will also result in
environmental benefits. As discussed in
the NOPR, 74 FR 61419, 61447–61453,
61476–61484, and in section VI.C.6 of
this final rule, DOE considered these
factors in adopting today’s standards.
g. Other Factors
The Secretary of Energy, in
determining whether a standard is
economically justified, considers any
other factors that the Secretary of Energy
deems relevant. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VII) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) In adopting today’s standards,
the Secretary considered the following:
(1) Harmonization of standards for small
electric motors with existing standards
under EPCA for medium-sized
polyphase general purpose motors; (2)
the impact, on consumers who need to
use CSIR motors, and on the prices for
such motors at potential standard levels;
and (3) the potential for standards to
reduce reactive power demand and
thereby lower costs for supplying
electricity.3 74 FR 61419–20, 61484.
These issues are addressed in section
VI.C.7 below.
2. Rebuttable Presumption
Section 325(o)(2)(B)(iii) of EPCA
states that there is a rebuttable
presumption that an energy
conservation standard is economically
justified if the increased installed cost
for a product that meets the standard is
less than three times the value of the
first-year energy savings resulting from
the standard, as calculated under the
applicable DOE test procedure. (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) DOE’s LCC and payback period
(PBP) analyses generate values that
calculate the PBP of potential energy
conservation standards. The calculation
includes, but is not limited to, the threeyear PBP contemplated under the
rebuttable presumption test just
described. However, DOE routinely
3 In an alternating current power system, the
reactive power is the root mean square (RMS)
voltage multiplied by the RMS current, multiplied
by the sine of the phase difference between the
voltage and the current. Reactive power occurs
when the inductance or capacitance of the load
shifts the phase of the voltage relative to the phase
of the current. While reactive power does not
consume energy, it can increase losses and costs for
the electricity distribution system. Motors tend to
create reactive power because the windings in the
motor coils have high inductance.
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conducts a full economic analysis that
considers the full range of impacts,
including those to the customer,
manufacturer, Nation, and environment,
as required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a).
The results of this analysis serve as the
basis for DOE to evaluate definitively
the economic justification for a potential
standard level (thereby supporting or
rebutting any presumption of economic
justification).
IV. Methodology and Discussion of
Comments on Methodology
DOE used several analytical tools that
it developed previously and adapted for
use in this rulemaking. One is a
spreadsheet that calculates LCC and
PBP. Another tool calculates national
energy savings and national NPV that
would result from the adoption of
energy conservation standards. DOE
also used the Government Regulatory
Impact Model (GRIM), along with other
data obtained from interviews with
manufacturers, in its MIA to determine
the impacts of standards on
manufacturers. Finally, DOE developed
an approach using the National Energy
Modeling System (NEMS) to estimate
impacts of standards for small electric
motors on electric utilities and the
environment. The NOPR discusses each
of these analytical tools in detail, 74 FR
61420, 61436–53, as does the TSD.
As a basis for this final rule, DOE has
continued to use the spreadsheets and
approaches explained in the NOPR.
DOE used the same general
methodology as applied in the NOPR,
but revised some of the assumptions
and inputs for the final rule in response
to public comments. DOE also added
new analysis based on the comments it
received from interested parties. The
following paragraphs address these
revisions.
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A. Market and Technology Assessment
When beginning an energy
conservation standards rulemaking,
DOE develops information that provides
an overall picture of the market for the
equipment concerned, including the
purpose of the equipment, the industry
structure, and market characteristics.
This activity includes both quantitative
and qualitative assessments based
primarily on publicly available
information. The subjects addressed in
the market and technology assessment
for this rulemaking include scope of
coverage, product classes,
manufacturers, quantities, and types of
equipment sold and offered for sale;
retail market trends; and regulatory and
non-regulatory programs. See chapter 3
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of the TSD for further discussion of the
market and technology assessment.
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
EPCA defines a small electric motor
as ‘‘a NEMA general purpose alternating
current single-speed induction motor,
built in a two-digit frame number series
in accordance with NEMA Standards
Publication MG1–1987.’’ 42 U.S.C.
6311(13)(G). NEMA Standards
Publication MG1–1987 is an industry
guidance document that addresses,
among other things, various aspects
related to small and medium electric
motors. As denoted in the title, this
version of MG1 was prepared in 1987,
more than 20 years before the date of
today’s final rule. NEMA has since
published updated versions of this
document, the latest of which was
released in 2006. Of particular
significance is the difference in what
was considered in 1987 a general
purpose, alternating current motor (only
open construction motors) compared to
what NEMA currently considers a
general purpose alternating current
motor (both open and enclosed
construction motors).4
DOE explained its view in the NOPR
as to how it currently reads 42 U.S.C.
6311(13)(G). 74 FR 61421. DOE
indicated that the statute refers to MG1–
1987 for purposes of ascertaining what
constitutes a small electric motor. The
agency explained and articulated certain
assumptions in the NOPR regarding the
scope of categories of motors, frame
sizes, performance characteristics,
insulation systems, and motor
enclosures that it examined within the
proposed scope of this rulemaking.
DOE received several comments
criticizing the scope of DOE’s coverage
in its analyses. Manufacturers indicated
that DOE’s scope was too broad because,
in their view, many of the motors DOE
examined in ascertaining the energy
savings potential for small electric
motors, were not small electric motors
under MG1–1987. For example,
Emerson commented that in order for
standards to be enforceable, DOE should
adhere strictly to MG1–1987 in defining
scope. (Emerson, No. 28 at p. 2) NEMA
made similar comments echoing the
same concern and argued that DOE’s
analysis should have been limited to the
performance characteristics contained
in MG1–1987. (See, e.g., NEMA, No. 8
at pp. 2–5)
4 An open motor is constructed with ventilating
openings that permit external cooling air to pass
over and around the windings of the motor. An
enclosed motor is constructed to prevent the free
exchange of air between the inside and outside of
the housing.
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In contrast, Earthjustice and UL both
commented that DOE was unnecessarily
constraining itself by adhering to NEMA
MG1–1987. See Earthjustice, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 49–
50; UL, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 89–90. UL asserted that
DOE’s scope would create a negligible
impact on the market, which has been
shifting from the motors covered under
the NOPR to other motor types (such as
electronically commutated motors). (UL,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
p. 182, UL, No. 21 at pp. 2) Earthjustice
advised DOE that it should expand the
scope of the rulemaking to include any
‘‘covered equipment’’ that it finds are
justified. (Earthjustice, No. 22 at pp.
1–3) It had also noted during the
preliminary analysis public meeting,
that DOE could adopt a different reading
of the definition by applying the phrase
MG1–1987 only to the two digit frame
number series requirement. Earthjustice,
Public Meeting Transcript, at 47–49
(January 30, 2009).
After careful consideration of all of
the comments, DOE believes that its
scope of coverage in this final rule is
appropriate. As such, DOE is declining
to revise its scope of coverage for this
equipment within this rulemaking.
While DOE is continuing to adhere to
the approach proposed in its NOPR and
accompanying TSD, DOE may revisit
this issue in the future and re-examine
its interpretation of the small electric
motor definition in 42 U.S.C.
6311(13)(G). Any such re-examination
would be performed within the context
of the rulemaking process and offer an
opportunity for public comment.
a. Motor Categories
The motor categories examined by
DOE are tied in part to the terminology
and performance requirements in
NEMA MG1–1987. These requirements
were established for (1) general-purpose
alternating-current motors, (2) singlespeed induction motors, and (3) the
NEMA system for designating (twodigit) frame sizes. Single-speed
induction motors, as delineated and
described in MG1–1987, fall into five
categories: split-phase, shaded-pole,
capacitor-start (both CSIR and CSCR),
permanent-split capacitor (PSC), and
polyphase. Of these five motor
categories, DOE determined for
purposes of this rulemaking that only
CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase motors are
able to meet performance requirements
in NEMA MG1 and are widely
considered general purpose alternating
current motors, as shown by the listings
found in manufacturers’ catalogs.
Therefore, in the NOPR DOE proposed
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to only cover those three motor
categories.
Underwriters Laboratories stated that
they believe DOE should cover the splitphase, shaded-pole, and PSC motor
categories because they are much more
common in the current market.
(Underwriters Laboratories, No. 21 at p.
2) It is DOE’s understanding that the
motors suggested for coverage by UL do
not meet the requirements for a NEMA
general purpose motors and,
consequently, are outside the scope of
this rulemaking despite being more
common. As a result, DOE continues to
maintain that CSIR, CSCR, and
polyphase motors are the only motor
categories that are general purpose
motors for purposes of this rulemaking.
b. Horsepower Ratings
In DOE’s preliminary and NOPR
analyses on small electric motors, DOE
presented a range of horsepower ratings
from 1⁄4-horsepower up to 3horsepower. The range of horsepower
ratings was the same for all three motor
categories covered: CSIR, CSCR, and
polyphase motors as well as all three
pole configurations: Two, four, and six.
This range of horsepower ratings was
consistent with what DOE believed to be
the range of ratings where
manufacturers build NEMA general
purpose motors in a two-digit frame
number series.
In response to the NOPR, NEMA and
Baldor commented that the horsepower
range for the products classes DOE
proposed was incorrect. Baldor stated
that horsepower ratings higher than 1⁄2horsepower for six-pole motors, 3⁄4horsepower for four-pole motors, and
1-horsepower for two-pole motors are
not standard ratings for small electric
motors as defined in NEMA MG1, in
particular, as listed in Table 10–1 of
MG1–1987. Therefore, NEMA and
Baldor stated that motors with such
ratings are not NEMA general purpose
motors and should be excluded from
DOE’s scope of coverage. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 38–
41; NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 1–5, 7)
DOE understands that NEMA MG1–
1987 does not provide ratings for small
motors of the identified higher
horsepower ratings. However, DOE does
not believe this precludes certain higher
horsepower ratings built in a two-digit
NEMA frame consistent with NEMA
MG1–1987 from coverage. In addition,
upon review of NEMA manufacturer
product catalogs, DOE noted that twodigit frame size motors of higher
horsepower ratings are commonly
marketed as general purpose. DOE also
observed from NEMA shipment data
provided to DOE for the determination
analysis that when NEMA surveyed its
members and requested shipments of
general purpose motors built in a twodigit frame number series, responding
manufacturers provided shipments data
in horsepower ratings exceeding those
listed in the comments above. Although
NEMA argued that these motors do not
fall within this rulemaking, NEMA did
not deny that these motors are
considered general purpose motors.
Thus, DOE believes that even though
NEMA MG1–1987 does not provide
standard ratings for higher horsepower
small electric motors, many of these
motors are considered NEMA general
purpose motors that could be
considered for coverage by DOE.
DOE notes that there is precedent for
clarifying the scope of coverage of these
motors. At industry’s request during the
test procedure rulemaking for small
electric motors, DOE clarified the small
electric motor definition to incorporate
10883
metric-equivalent motors that are built
in accordance with the International
Electrotechnical Commission’s
requirements. See Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8 at p. 75;
NEMA, No. 12 at p. 2. This expansion
of the small electric motor definition,
which was added to ensure that DOE
provided adequate coverage over small
electric motors generally, was
incorporated into 10 CFR 431.442. See
also 74 FR 32061–62 and 32072.
While DOE believes that many of the
horsepower ratings recommended for
exclusion by NEMA and Baldor could
be included in the definition of small
electric motors, upon examining
manufacturer catalogs, DOE found that
motors did not exist for some
horsepower ratings/pole configuration
combinations included in NOPR.
Specifically, DOE found that no open
construction, two-digit frame size
motors have horsepower ratings greater
than 3-horsepower. In addition, DOE
found no small electric polyphase
motors built with a 2- or 3-horsepower
rating and a six-pole configuration. DOE
also found that small electric singlephase motors (CSIR and CSCR) do not
exist with a 11⁄2-horsepower rating or
higher for six-poles or a 3-horsepower
rating for four-poles. As there is no
evidence that these motors, if
manufactured, would be considered
general purpose motors, and because
DOE lacks data on which to base energy
conservation standards for these motors,
DOE is not including them in the scope
of this rulemaking. Today’s final rule
reflects this decision as no standards are
being adopted in those product classes.
Table IV.1 presents the horsepower
ratings for which DOE believes no small
electric motors are currently
commercially available.
TABLE IV.1—HORSEPOWER RATINGS FOR WHICH NO MOTORS EXIST
Two-pole
Four-pole
Polyphase ....................................................................................................................
Single-Phase ...............................................................................................................
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Motor category
.................................
.................................
.................................
≥ 3 Hp .....................
c. Performance Requirements
NEMA defines several performance
requirements, including breakdown
torque, locked rotor torque, and locked
rotor current that motors must meet in
order to be considered general-purpose.
Because DOE’s assessment of the small
electric motors market (through analysis
of commercially-available products
sold) indicates that the vast majority of
motors meet the previously listed
requirements, DOE believes that a motor
must meet these performance
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characteristics as a condition for
coverage.
PG&E commented that a loophole
exists in the rulemaking since the
current definition of a small general
purpose motor is so narrow with respect
to design and performance
characteristics. (PG&E, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 259–60)
PG&E added that DOE’s reliance on
MG1–1987 provides another loophole
where NEMA could update its standards
such that manufacturers could still
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Six-pole
≥ 2 Hp.
≥ 1.5 Hp.
make a NEMA general purpose motor
that is not covered under today’s
rulemaking. (PG&E, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 260–61)
NEEA/NPCC agreed with PG&E that a
manufacturer could easily circumvent
any standards whose coverage was
based around NEMA performance
requirements, by simply constructing
the motor such that it slightly deviates
from NEMA requirements, but still
provides similar utility to the consumer.
(NEEA/NPCC, No. 27, pp. 2–3) Baldor
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stated that the tables of performance
requirements in NEMA MG1 are
designed to let customers know how
motors will perform from manufacturer
to manufacturer and they have been
established for many years and there
would be no reason to change them.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 266–67)
DOE understands the concerns
expressed by PG&E, but agrees with
Baldor that considering that the relevant
performance requirements in NEMA
MG1 have not changed substantially in
over 20 years, these performance
standards are unlikely to change should
NEMA develop a new version of MG1.
DOE believes that to do so would
constitute a major change to the
industry and performance
characteristics that customers have been
accustomed to over the years. Therefore,
DOE believes that small electric motors
must meet certain requirements in
NEMA MG1–1987 shown in Table IV.6.
For those combinations of horsepower
rating and pole configuration that do not
have performance requirements for twodigit frame sizes, DOE has no
performance requirements. Instead, DOE
will cover only those motors widely
considered general purpose and
marketed as such in manufacturer
catalogs.
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d. Motor Enclosures
In the NOPR, DOE stated that in
ascertaining what constitutes a small
electric motor, only the 1987 version of
MG1 applies within the context of the
statutory definition. Under that
interpretation, DOE stated that only
open construction motors were
considered covered products. DOE is
continuing to adhere to this approach.
As DOE’s proposed scope did not
extend beyond open motors as covered
products, Baldor and NEMA
commented that the revision to 10 CFR
Part 431 proposed in the NOPR should
clearly mention that the table of
efficiency values for section 431.446
applies only to open motors. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 47–48, NEMA, No. 24 at p. 5) To
clarify the application of the new
efficiency values, DOE is modifying the
efficiency standards tables in section
431.446 from today’s final rule to
include the words, ‘‘open motors’’ in the
headings.
e. Frame Sizes
As for the frame sizes of motors that
are covered by DOE standards for small
electric motors, EPCA defines a small
electric motor, in relevant part, as a
motor ‘‘built in a two-digit frame
number series in accordance with
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NEMA Standards Publication MG1–
1987.’’ (42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(G)) MG1–
1987 establishes a system for
designating motor frames that consisting
of a series of numbers in combination
with letters that correspond to a specific
size. The 1987 version of MG1
designates three two-digit frame series:
42, 48, and 56. These frame series have
standard dimensions and tolerances
necessary for mounting and
interchangeability that are specified in
sections MG1–11.31 and MG1–11.34.
DOE understands that manufacturers
produce motors in other two-digit frame
sizes, namely a 66 frame size. The 66
frame size is used for definite-purpose
or special-purpose motors and not used
in general-purpose applications and are
not covered under the EPCA definition
of ‘‘small electric motor.’’ In the NOPR,
DOE stated that it was unaware of any
other motors with two-digit frame sizes
that are built in accordance with NEMA
MG1–1987. Should such frame sizes
appear on the market, DOE will
consider evaluating whether to include
that equipment. For the NOPR, DOE
received no comments regarding this
issue and as a result, is maintaining its
stance on this topic for this final rule.
f. Insulation Class Systems
Because DOE’s interpretation of the
statutory definition of a small electric
motor is largely influenced by what
NEMA defines as a general-purpose
alternating-current motor under MG1–
1987, DOE has taken into account the
criteria that comprise a general purpose
motor. Among these criteria are the
applicable insulation classes. NEMA
MG1–1987 paragraph 1–1.05, provides
that a general-purpose motor must
incorporate a ‘‘Class A insulation system
with a temperature rise as specified in
MG 1–12.42 for small motors or Class B
insulation system with a temperature
rise as specified in MG 1–12.43 for
medium motors.’’
In NEMA MG1–1987, paragraphs 1.66
and 12.42.1 define four insulation class
systems: Class A, Class B, Class F, and
Class H. They are divided into classes
based on the thermal endurance and
each system has a different temperature
rise 5 that the insulating material must
be able to withstand without
degradation. The temperature rise
requirement for Class A systems is the
lowest of the four systems defined in
NEMA MG1–1987, which means that all
other insulation classes meet Class A
5 Temperature rise refers to the increase in
temperature over the ambient temperature of the
motor when operated at service factor load. NEMA
MG1 provides maximum temperature rises (as
measured on the windings of the motor) for each
insulation class system.
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requirements. Because all insulation
class systems meet the Class A
requirements, DOE proposed to cover
motors that incorporate any of the other
insulation class systems in the NOPR. A
joint comment submitted by Pacific Gas
and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern
California Edison (SCE), Southern
California Gas Company (SCGC), and
San Diego Gas and Electric Company
(SDGE) supported DOE’s decision to
include insulation Classes B, F, and H
in addition to Class A. (Joint Comment,
No. 23 at p. 2) NEMA and Baldor
commented that although it is prudent
to cover insulation class systems other
than Class A, in order for a motor to be
considered covered it must adhere to
the temperature rise limits required of
Class A motors by NEMA MG1. For
example, if a motor contains a Class B
insulation system, but the temperature
rise exceeds the threshold for Class A
insulation systems, the commenters
stated that that motor should be
excluded from coverage. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 25–
26; Baldor, No. 15 at p. 3–4, NEMA, No.
24 at pp. 5–7)
DOE disagrees with Baldor and
NEMA’s assessment regarding
temperature rise and in today’s final
rule maintains that the scope of
coverage includes motors with any
insulation class system Class A or
higher, regardless of whether a motor
meets the Class A temperature rise
requirements. First, DOE notes that
NEMA MG1 does not require small
motors to meet the temperature rise for
a Class A insulation system. Rather, it
only requires that the motor
incorporates an insulation system that
meets Class A requirements, which DOE
has determined could be Class A, B, F,
or H.
Second, DOE believes that it is
unreasonable to apply a more stringent
temperature rise requirement on motors
with higher insulation class systems.
These motors often incorporate the
higher insulation class systems in order
to protect the motors from degradation
at high temperatures. As a result, the
accompanying temperature rise, which
serves as a marker of how much heat a
particular insulation class can
withstand to prevent the motor from
damage, will generally increase as a
higher grade of insulation is used.
Baldor’s suggestion that a lower
temperature rise (70 °C) must be used for
each higher grade of insulation that
offers protection at higher temperatures
is one that DOE declines to adopt.
Furthermore, according to NEMA
Standards publication MG1–1987,
paragraph 10.39.1, although insulation
class system designation is a required
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marking on the nameplate of small
electric motors, temperature rise is not.
If DOE were to limit scope based on the
temperature rise requirements of Class
A systems, DOE would have no way of
determining whether motors of
insulation class systems greater than
Class A meet the required temperature
rise and are therefore subject to energy
conservation standards. As only 2
percent of small electric motor models
sold are labeled with Class A insulation
systems, 98 percent of small electric
models would have unknown
temperature rises (relative to Class A
requirements). DOE believes that
including all insulation classes and
temperature rises satisfies the statutory
definition and avoids creating an
unenforceable standard for a large
number of motors that do not list
temperature rise.
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g. Service Factors
Some CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase
motors may fail to meet the NEMA
definition of general purpose alternating
current motor because they do not meet
NEMA service factor requirements. See,
e.g. NEMA MG1–1987 Table 12–2.
Service factor is a measure of the
overload capacity at which a motor can
operate without thermal damage, while
operating normally within the correct
voltage tolerances. The rated
horsepower multiplied by the service
factor determines that overload
capacity. For example, a 1-horsepower
motor with a 1.25 service factor can
operate at 1.25 horsepower (1horsepower × 1.25 service factor). For
the NOPR, DOE concluded that motors
that fail to meet service factor
requirements in MG1–12.47 of MG1–
1987 (now 12.51.1 of MG1–2006) are not
‘‘small electric motors’’ as EPCA uses
that term. Receiving no comments to the
contrary, DOE maintains that position in
today’s final rule and energy efficiency
standards do not apply to them.
h. Metric Equivalents and Non-Standard
Horsepower and Kilowatt Ratings
DOE’s interpretation of a small
electric motor is largely based on the
construction and rating system in
NEMA MG1–1987. (42 U.S.C.
6311(13)(G)) This system uses English
units of measurement and power output
ratings in horsepower. In contrast,
general-purpose electric motors
manufactured outside the United States
and Canada are defined and described
with reference to the International
Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)
Standard 60034–1 series, ‘‘Rotating
electrical machines,’’ which employs
terminology and criteria different from
those in EPCA. The performance
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attributes of these IEC motors are rated
pursuant to IEC Standard 60034–1 Part
1: ‘‘Rating and performance,’’ which uses
metric units of measurement and
construction standards different from
MG1, and a rating system based on
power output in kilowatts instead of
power output in horsepower. The
Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE) Standard 112
recognizes this difference in the market
and defines the relationship between
horsepower and kilowatts. Furthermore,
in 10 CFR 431.12, DOE defined ‘‘electric
motor’’ in terms of both NEMA and IEC
equivalents even though EPCA’s
corresponding definition and standards
were articulated in terms of MG1
criteria and English units of
measurement. 64 FR 54114 (October 5,
1999) The test procedure final rule
adopted a definition for small electric
motor that explicitly indicated that IEC
equivalent motors are considered small
electric motors. 10 CFR 431.442. 74 FR
32062, 72.
In the NOPR, DOE addressed how IEC
metric or kilowatt-equivalent motors
can perform identical functions as
NEMA small electric motors and
provide comparable rotational
mechanical power to the same machines
or equipment. Moreover, IEC metric or
kilowatt-equivalent motors can
generally be interchangeable with
covered small electric motors.
Consistent with the codified definition
of ‘‘small electric motor in 10 CFR
431.442, DOE interpreted EPCA to apply
the term ‘‘small electric motor’’ to any
motor that is identical or equivalent to
a motor constructed and rated in
accordance with NEMA MG1, which
includes IEC metric motors. DOE also
proposed that motors with non-standard
kilowatt and horsepower ratings would
be required to meet small electric motor
energy conservation standards. 74 FR
61422.
A joint comment submitted by PG&E,
SCE, SCGC, and SDGE indicated
support for DOE’s decision to include
IEC-rated motors in today’s rulemaking.
(Joint Comment, No. 23 at p. 2) NEMA
and Baldor commented that, even
though they agreed with DOE’s
approach in the NOPR, they believed
that given the statutory definition’s
dependence on MG1–1987 (and the
ratings contained in that standard) more
justification is needed to include nonstandard metric or English-rated motors
in its scope of coverage. (Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 288–89;
NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 24–25)
DOE appreciates these comments and
in this final rule maintains its position
regarding the inclusion of non-standard
IEC metric and English-rated motors.
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10885
Though NEMA MG1 does not provide
ratings for these non-standard motors,
DOE recognizes that they can perform
identical functions as those NEMA
motors with standard horsepower
ratings. Therefore, as DOE did within
the context of its codified definition of
the term ‘‘small electric motor’’ found in
10 CFR 431.442 to include IEC metricequivalent motors, DOE believes that
non-standard horsepower and kilowatt
rated motors should be considered
NEMA general purpose and included in
the scope of coverage of this
rulemaking.
i. Summary
During the public meeting, Baldor and
NEMA commented that DOE did not
include the definition of NEMA general
purpose motor in 10 CFR 431.442, and
suggested that DOE include the
definition for clarity and completeness.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at p. 46; NEMA, No. 24 at p. 5) A.O.
Smith also requested clarification of the
term ‘‘small electric motor,’’ and
suggested that the definition align with
NEMA established guidelines. (A.O.
Smith, No. 26 at p. 2)
DOE has discussed the covered motor
categories, horsepower ratings, motor
enclosures, frame sizes, insulation class
systems, service factors, and metric
equivalents. As discussed in section
IV.A.1.b, because DOE has found several
horsepower/pole configurations for
which small electric motors are not
commercially available, DOE has made
slight modifications in the range of
horsepower ratings for which it is
adopting standards in this final rule.
The motors covered by today’s rule
include polyphase motors from 1⁄4- to 3horsepower for motors equipped with
two poles, 1⁄4- to 3-horsepower for
motors with four poles, and 1⁄4- to 1⁄2horsepower for motors with six pole
motors as long as they are built in a twodigit frame number series and with an
open construction; the CSIR and CSCR
motors covered by today’s rule include
motors from 1⁄4- to 3-horsepower motors
equipped with two poles, 1⁄4- to 2horsepower for motors with four poles,
and 1⁄4- to 1-horesepower for motors
with six poles as long as they are built
in a two-digit frame number series and
with an open construction. A motor will
not be excluded because of its
insulation class system or its
temperature rise. However, it will be
excluded if it fails to meet NEMA
general purpose service factor
requirements. Any metric-equivalent
motor or motor with a non-standard
horsepower or kilowatt rating that has
performance characteristics and
construction equivalent to those listed
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above is also a covered product and
must meet the energy efficiency
standards of this rulemaking. Although
today’s final rule DOE does not codify
a definition for ‘‘NEMA general purpose
motor’’, DOE will consider proposing a
definition for this term in the electric
motor test procedure supplemental
NOPR.
2. Product Classes
When evaluating and establishing
energy conservation standards, DOE
generally divides covered equipment
into classes by the type of energy used,
capacity, or other performance-related
features that affect efficiency. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)) DOE routinely establishes
different energy conservation standards
for different product classes based on
these criteria.
At the NOPR public meeting, DOE
presented its rationale for creating 72
product classes. The 72 product classes
were based on combinations of three
different characteristics: motor category,
number of poles, and horsepower. As
these motor characteristics change, so
does the utility and efficiency of the
small electric motor.
The motor category divides the small
electric motors market into three major
groups: CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase. For
each motor category, DOE divided the
product classes by all combinations of
eight different horsepower ratings (i.e.,
1⁄4 to ≥ 3) and three different pole
configurations (i.e., 2, 4, and 6). A
change in motor category can constitute
a change in the type of power used,
three-phase power for polyphase motors
versus single-phase power for capacitorstart motors. Alternatively, it might be a
change in consumer utility that affects
efficiency. The addition of a runcapacitor on a CSCR motors can make
the motor more efficient as well as
constitute dimensional changes as the
run-capacitor is usually mounted
externally on the housing. Horsepower
rating is directly related to a motor’s
capacity, and its pole configuration is
directly related to the theoretical
maximum speed at which a motor can
operate. For the NOPR, DOE received no
comments contrary to disaggregating
product classes with these
characteristics, but did receive other
comments regarding product classes.
Consistent with their comments on
scope (discussed in section IV.A.1),
NEMA and Baldor stated that certain
combinations of horsepower and speed
(or pole-configuration) ratings should be
excluded from DOE’s product classes
because, in their view, they are not
small electric motors within the context
of MG1–1987. Specifically, they stated
that motors with horsepower ratings
greater than 1-horsepower for two-pole
motors, greater than 3⁄4-horsepower for
four-pole motors, and greater than 1⁄2horsepower for six-pole motors do not
meet the statutory definition. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 39–41; NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 3–4) As
discussed in section IV.A.1, DOE
examined the statutory definition of
small electric motor and disagrees that
the aforementioned horsepower and
speed ratings are not covered under this
rulemaking. Therefore, in this final rule
DOE is maintaining coverage of
combinations of horsepower and pole
configurations higher than those
recommended by NEMA and Baldor.
However, as discussed in section
IV.A.1.b, DOE is not adopting standards
for motors which are not currently
commercially available. Accordingly,
DOE has removed these proposed
product classes in the final rule,
resulting in 62 total product classes.
NEMA and Baldor also commented
that DOE should include frame size
among the characteristics that define a
product class. They stated that smaller
frame size motors will not be able to
achieve as high an energy efficiency
rating as the larger frame sized motors,
thus warranting separate product
classes. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 43–44,
NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 4–5, 23)
DOE acknowledges that motors built
with smaller dimensions, namely core
diameters, may not be able to achieve
the same efficiency as a motor with
larger dimensions. The smaller diameter
limits the amount of active material that
is used to reduce motor losses and
therefore limits the maximum efficiency
rating possible as well. However, frame
size, which relates to the frame housing
and not the core diameter, is a
measurement of height from the bottom
of the mounting feet to the center of the
shaft of the motor. Frame size does not
always correlate to the core diameter of
the motor and amount active material.
For example, DOE found that some
motors with larger frame sizes have core
diameters equivalent to those motors
built in smaller frame sizes, which
means that these motors have an
efficiency potential equivalent to that of
a motor in a smaller frame size.
Consequently, frame size alone does not
necessarily change the efficiency of a
small electric motor.
Additionally, NEMA MG1 does not
differentiate breakdown torque, lockedrotor torque, and locked-rotor current
requirements for small general-purpose
motors by frame size. DOE believes that
if performance requirements other than
efficiency for small motors are not
different for different frame sizes, there
is no need or precedent for DOE to
differentiate efficiency standards for
small electric motors based on frame
size.
However, as stated earlier, DOE
recognizes that core diameter affects
efficiency. If DOE were to set a standard
based on an analysis of a motor of larger
core diameter, it could potentially be
eliminating from market smaller core
diameter motors. However, because core
diameter is not a standardized
dimension across all small electric
motors, DOE has chosen to address this
issue in the engineering analysis. As
discussed in section IV.C DOE based its
representative unit and scaling analyses
on what it perceived as the greatest
dimensionally constrained motors on
the market for each product class. By
doing this, DOE ensures that all existing
consumer utility in the marketplace of
smaller core diameter motors is
maintained with energy conservation
standards.
Chapter 3 of the TSD accompanying
today’s notice provides additional detail
on the product classes defined for the
standards proposed in this final rule,
and Table IV.2 through Table IV.4 below
enumerate these product classes. For the
final rule, DOE considers 62 product
classes.
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TABLE IV.2—PRODUCT CLASSES FOR POLYPHASE MOTORS WITH AN OPEN CONSTRUCTION
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Six poles
⁄ hp/0.18 kW .....................................................................................................................
⁄ hp/0.25 kW .....................................................................................................................
1⁄2 hp/0.37 kW .....................................................................................................................
3⁄4 hp/0.55 kW .....................................................................................................................
1 hp/0.75 kW ......................................................................................................................
11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW .....................................................................................................................
2 hp/1.5 kW ........................................................................................................................
PC #1 ...............
PC #4 ...............
PC #7 ...............
PC #10 .............
PC #13 .............
PC #16 .............
...........................
14
13
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Four poles
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
#2 ...............
#5 ...............
#8 ...............
#11 .............
#14 .............
#17 .............
#19 .............
09MRR2
Two poles
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
#3.
#6.
#9.
#12.
#15.
#18.
#20.
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TABLE IV.2—PRODUCT CLASSES FOR POLYPHASE MOTORS WITH AN OPEN CONSTRUCTION—Continued
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Six poles
Four poles
3 hp/2.2 kW ........................................................................................................................
...........................
PC #21 .............
Two poles
PC #22.
TABLE IV.3—PRODUCT CLASSES FOR CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN MOTORS WITH AN OPEN CONSTRUCTION
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Six poles
Four poles
⁄ hp/0.18 kW .....................................................................................................................
⁄ hp/0.25 kW .....................................................................................................................
1⁄2 hp/0.37 kW .....................................................................................................................
3⁄4 hp/0.55 kW .....................................................................................................................
1 hp/0.75 kW ......................................................................................................................
11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW .....................................................................................................................
2 hp/1.5 kW ........................................................................................................................
3 hp/2.2 kW ........................................................................................................................
PC #23 .............
PC #26 .............
PC #29 .............
PC #32 .............
PC #35 .............
...........................
...........................
...........................
PC #24 .............
PC #27 .............
PC #30 .............
PC #33 .............
PC #36 .............
PC #38 .............
PC #40 .............
...........................
14
13
Two poles
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
#25.
#28.
#31.
#34.
#37.
#39.
#41.
#42.
TABLE IV.4—PRODUCT CLASSES FOR CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR-RUN MOTORS WITH AN OPEN CONSTRUCTION
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Six poles
Four poles
⁄ hp/0.18 kW .....................................................................................................................
⁄ hp/0.25 kW .....................................................................................................................
1⁄2 hp/0.37 kW .....................................................................................................................
3⁄4 hp/0.55 kW .....................................................................................................................
1 hp/0.75 kW ......................................................................................................................
11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW .....................................................................................................................
2 hp/1.5 kW ........................................................................................................................
3 hp/2.2 kW ........................................................................................................................
PC #43 .............
PC #46 .............
PC #49 .............
PC #52 .............
PC #55 .............
...........................
...........................
...........................
PC #44 .............
PC #47 .............
PC #50 .............
PC #53 .............
PC #56 .............
PC #58 .............
PC #60 .............
...........................
14
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13
B. Screening Analysis
The purpose of the screening analysis
is to evaluate the technology options
identified as having the potential to
improve the efficiency of equipment, to
determine which technologies to
consider further and which to screen
out. DOE consulted with industry,
technical experts, and other interested
parties to develop a list of technologies
for consideration. DOE then applied the
following four screening criteria to
determine which design options are
suitable for further consideration in a
standards rulemaking:
1. Technological feasibility. DOE
considers technologies incorporated in
commercial products or in working
prototypes to be technologically
feasible.
2. Practicability to manufacture,
install, and service. If mass production
and reliable installation and servicing of
a technology in commercial products
could be achieved on the scale
necessary to serve the relevant market at
the time the standard comes into effect,
then DOE considers that technology
practicable to manufacture, install, and
service.
3. Adverse impacts on product utility
or product availability. If DOE
determines a technology would have a
significant adverse impact on the utility
of the product to significant subgroups
of consumers, or would result in the
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unavailability of any covered product
type with performance characteristics
(including reliability), features, sizes,
capacities, and volumes that are
substantially the same as products
generally available in the United States
at the time, it will not consider this
technology further.
4. Adverse impacts on health or
safety. If DOE determines that a
technology will have significant adverse
impacts on health or safety, it will not
consider this technology further.
See 10 CFR part 430, subpart C,
appendix A, (4)(a)(4) and (5)(b).
DOE identified the following
technology options that could improve
the efficiency of small electric motors:
Utilizing a copper die-cast rotor,
reducing skew on the rotor stack (i.e.
straightening the rotor conductor bars),
increasing the cross-sectional area of
rotor conductor bars, increasing the end
ring size, changing the copper wire
gauge used in the stator, manipulating
the stator slot size, changing capacitor
ratings, decreasing the air gap between
the rotor and stator, improving the
grades of electrical steel, using thinner
steel laminations, annealing steel
laminations, adding stack length, using
high efficiency steel lamination
materials, using plastic bonded iron
powder (PBIP), installing better ball
bearings and lubricant, and installing a
more efficient cooling system. For a
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PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
PC
#45.
#48.
#51.
#54.
#57.
#59.
#61.
#62.
description of how each of these
technology options improves small
electric motor efficiency see TSD
chapter 3. For the NOPR, DOE screened
out two of these technology options:
PBIP and decreasing the air gap below
.0125 inch. DOE received no comments
regarding these two technology options
and therefore maintains its exclusion of
these technology options in today’s final
rule. However, DOE did receive
comments concerning the availability of
premium electrical steels (such as
Hiperco) and copper rotors, two design
options that it did not screen out in the
NOPR. Please see section IV.I for a
discussion of those issues.
DOE believes that all of the efficiency
levels discussed in today’s notice are
technologically feasible. The
technologies that DOE examined have
been used (or are being used) in
commercially available equipment or
working prototypes. These technologies
all incorporate materials and
components that are commercially
available in today’s supply markets for
the motors that are the subject of this
final rule.
C. Engineering Analysis
The engineering analysis develops
cost-efficiency relationships to show the
manufacturing costs of achieving
increased energy efficiency. As
discussed in the NOPR, to conduct the
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engineering analysis, DOE used a
combined design-option and efficiency
level approach in which it employed a
motor design software technical expert
to develop motor designs at several
efficiency levels for each analyzed
product class. Based on these simulated
designs and manufacturer and
component supplier data, DOE
calculated manufacturing costs and
selling prices associated with each
efficiency level. DOE decided on this
approach after receiving insufficient
response to its request for the
manufacturer data needed to execute an
efficiency-level approach for the
preliminary analyses. The design-option
approach allowed DOE to make its
engineering analysis methodologies,
assumptions, and results publicly
available in the NOPR, thereby
permitting all interested parties the
opportunity to review and comment on
this information. The design options
considered in the engineering analysis
include: Copper die-cast rotor, reduced
skew on the rotor stack, increased crosssectional area of rotor conductor bars,
increase end-ring size, changing the
gauge of copper wire in the stator,
manipulating stator slot size, decreased
air gap between rotor and stator to .0125
inch, improved grades of electrical steel,
use thinner steel laminations, annealed
steel laminations, increased stack
height, modified capacitors ratings,
improved ball bearings and lubricant,
and more efficient cooling systems.
Chapter 5 of the TSD contains a detailed
description of the engineering analysis
methodology and chapter 3 of the TSD
contains a detailed description of how
the design options listed above increase
motor efficiency.
1. Product Classes Analyzed
As discussed in section IV.A.2 of this
notice, DOE is establishing a total of 62
product classes for small electric
motors, based on the motor category
(polyphase, CSIR, or CSCR), horsepower
rating, and pole configuration. DOE
carefully selected certain product
classes to analyze, and then scaled its
analytical findings for those
representative product classes to other
product classes that were not directly
analyzed. Further discussion of DOE’s
scaling methodology is presented in
section IV.C.5
For the NOPR, DOE analyzed three
representative product classes: (1) 1horsepower, four-pole, polyphase
motor, (2) 1⁄2-horsepower, four-pole,
CSIR motors, and (3) 3⁄4-horsepower,
four-pole, CSCR motor. By choosing
these three product classes, DOE
ensured that each motor category
(polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR) was
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represented. DOE achieved this by
selecting horsepower ratings for each
motor category that are commonly
available from most manufacturers, thus
increasing the quantity of available data
on which to base the analysis. Finally,
DOE chose four-pole motors for each
motor category, consistent with NEMAprovided shipments data (see TSD
chapter 9), which indicated that these
motors had the highest shipment
volume in 2007. See TSD chapter 5 for
additional detail on the product classes
analyzed.
In response to the NOPR, Baldor and
NEMA commented that the product
class selected for polyphase motors was
inappropriate. They asserted that
according to NEMA’s standard ratings in
MG1–1987, a 1-horsepower, four-pole,
polyphase motor would not be
considered a small motor or NEMA
general purpose small motor, and
therefore falls out of the scope of this
rulemaking. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 62–63;
NEMA, No. 24 at p. 7) However, as
discussed in section IV.A.1, DOE
disagrees with Baldor and NEMA’s
interpretation of scope, and in this final
rule, DOE is including small electric
motors with horsepower ratings ranging
from 1⁄4- to 3-horsepower and pole
configurations of two, four, and six
poles. In consideration of this scope,
DOE believes that the representative
product classes selected in the NOPR
engineering analysis are appropriate and
is continuing to use these same
representative product classes in today’s
final rule.
2. Baseline Models
The engineering analysis DOE
conducted calculates the incremental
costs for equipment with efficiency
levels above the baseline in each
product class analyzed. For the NOPR
analysis, DOE established the baseline
motor efficiency and design for the three
representative product classes by
purchasing what it believed to be the
lowest efficiency motors on the market
for each of these classes. To select these
baseline motors, DOE interviewed
manufacturers and used catalog data on
motor efficiency and physical
dimensions. DOE recognizes that motors
with smaller core diameters, may be
unable to achieve efficiencies as high as
those with larger core diameters. In
order to preserve the availability of
these smaller core diameter motors,
DOE selected baselines which it
believed represented the most
dimensionally constrained, in terms of
core diameter, and least efficient motors
currently available on the market.
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After purchasing the three baseline
small electric motors, DOE tested the
motors according to the appropriate
IEEE test procedures (as dictated by
DOE’s small electric motor test
procedure discussed in section III.A).
After performing the appropriate test
procedures, DOE then tore down each
baseline motor to obtain internal
dimensions, copper wire gauges, steel
grade, and any other pertinent design
information. Those parameters and tests
were then used as inputs into the design
software, allowing DOE to model the
motor and calibrate its software to the
tested efficiencies. All subsequent
higher-efficiency motor designs
employed the design options discussed
earlier to model incremental
improvements in efficiency and
increases in cost over the baseline.
a. Baseline Efficiencies
At the NOPR public meeting, DOE
received several comments regarding
the validity of the baseline motor
efficiencies used in the engineering
analysis. Emerson Motor Company
pointed out that it is common to see a
spread in efficiencies within a
population of motors of a particular
design. Emerson questioned if an
analysis was conducted to determine if
the baseline polyphase motor chosen
and tested had an efficiency value that
was at the high-end, low-end, or near
the average compared to the population
of motors of that model type. (Emerson,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 73–75) Similarly, Baldor and NEMA
noted that the baseline polyphase
motor’s tested efficiency (77 percent)
varied significantly from the catalog
efficiency (74 percent). They
commented that using 77 percent as the
efficiency of the baseline motor in the
engineering analysis assumed that a
single tested value of efficiency is equal
to the true arithmetic mean of the fullload efficiencies of the population of
motors. They argued that given the
distribution of efficiencies commonly
seen across a population of motors, due
in part to factors such as manufacturing
variability, this would be an
inappropriate assumption. In addition,
they also cited the electric motor
compliance provisions (in 10 CFR
431.17) for support. These provisions
state that the lowest full-load efficiency
in a sample can differ from the nominal
full load efficiency by as much as 15
percent due to variations in losses
attributable to variability in
manufacturing and testing facilities.
Baldor and NEMA asserted that similar
conditions should be expected for small
motors. Baldor and NEMA
recommended that absent any other
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data, DOE should use the manufacturerrated catalog efficiency of the polyphase
motor (74 percent) as the baseline
efficiency. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 120–121,
125; NEMA, No. 24 at p. 11, 13)
DOE agrees that it is possible that one
tested efficiency value does not
represent the average efficiency over a
population of motors. Inconsistencies in
motor laminations and processing
during manufacturing can result in
motors of a single design having a
distribution of efficiencies, most
commonly seen as variability in core
and stray load losses. However, as
manufacturers were not required to
report its catalog efficiencies for these
motors based on the results of the DOE
test procedures, DOE does not agree
with NEMA’s assertion that catalog
efficiencies should be used as the
baseline efficiencies.
In consideration of the comments
received, DOE conducted additional
testing to validate the polyphase
baseline efficiency. DOE tested five
additional polyphase motors (for a total
of six tests, exceeding the minimum five
required by the DOE sampling
requirements for electric motors in 10
CFR 431.17) of the same baseline model,
purchased from five separate
warehouses in order to ensure the
maximum variability in production.
DOE then used the average of the six
tests as the baseline efficiency for the
polyphase motor. For the single-phase
baseline motors, because the tested
values did not deviate significantly from
the catalog efficiency values and as DOE
did not receive specific comments
opposing these values, DOE used the
single-tested efficiency values as the
baseline efficiencies.
Because DOE modified the
efficiencies of the baseline designs
relative to that which was calculated in
the motor design software, DOE felt it
necessary to evaluate whether the
efficiencies of the higher efficiency
designs modeled in the software would
also change. As stated earlier, DOE
calibrated its software model to the
NOPR tested efficiencies of the baseline
models, and all subsequent higher
efficiency motor designs were generated
as incremental efficiency gains and cost
increases over this baseline design.
Thus, a change in the baseline efficiency
would likely affect the efficiencies of
the other motor designs. Therefore, for
this final rule, DOE shifted the baseline
modeled efficiencies to match the tested
values described above. Similarly,
subsequent, more efficient designs were
shifted by the same percentage change
in losses as the baseline shifts. For
example, the baseline polyphase model
in the design software predicted an
efficiency of 77.7 percent. This value
was decreased to the average tested
efficiency value of 75.3 percent,
constituting an increase in motor losses
of roughly 14 percent. The modeled
efficiencies of the more efficient designs
were then shifted down in efficiency by
a 14 percent increase in motor losses as
well.
TABLE IV.5—EFFICIENCY VALUES OF BASELINE MODELS
Polyphase
1 hp, 4 pole
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Catalog Rated Efficiency (%) ....................................................................................
Software Modeled Efficiency (%) ..............................................................................
Baseline/Tested Efficiency (%) ..................................................................................
Shift in Losses from Modeled Values (%) .................................................................
In the NOPR, DOE stated that an
accredited laboratory performed IEEE
Standard 112 Test Methods A and B and
IEEE Standard 114 to find efficiency
data for its baseline models. However, at
the public meeting on December 17,
2009, Baldor commented that according
to NEMA and the National Voluntary
Laboratory Accreditation Program
Handbook 150–10, accreditation is
based on motor testing in accordance
with IEEE Standard 112 Test Method B
only, and that it does not currently
cover testing in accordance with IEEE
Standard 112 Method A or IEEE
Standard 114. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 114–115)
Therefore, Baldor suggested that DOE’s
statement about motor tests was
misleading because no accreditation
exists for two of the three listed
methods. DOE clarifies its previous
statement to say that a laboratory
6 This efficiency represents the average of tests
conducted on six separate units of the same model
number.
7 These values were incorrectly presented in the
NOPR as 57.7 and 71.0 for CSIR and CSCR,
respectively. These values presented in the NOPR
represent the NOPR modeled efficiencies. 74 FR
61427.
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74.0
77.7
6 75.3
14
accredited to perform IEEE Standard
112 Test Method B performed the tests.
b. Baseline Temperature Rise
NEMA MG1 defines several
temperature rise requirements for
general purpose alternating current
single-speed induction motors. In the
NOPR TSD, DOE reported the modeled
temperature rise characteristics of the
baseline motors selected in the
engineering analysis. In response to
those values, Baldor reasoned that
because the reported temperature rises
(78 °C for the polyphase motor and
86 °C for the CSIR motor at full load)
would far exceed the NEMA
temperature rise limit of 70 °C at service
factor load, for a Class A motor, the
selected baseline motors were
inappropriate selections. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 27–
30) After receiving Baldor’s comments,
DOE reviewed the data from thermal
tests conducted on the purchased
baseline motors and found that the
winding temperature tests indicated that
all three baseline motors in fact meet
NEMA temperature rise requirements
for Class A insulation systems. See
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⁄ hp, 4 pole
12
CSCR
⁄ hp, 4 pole
34
59.0
57.9
7 57.9
0
72.0
70.7
7 71.4
¥3
chapter 5 of the TSD for the tested
temperature rise data for each baseline
motor. However, because the modeled
temperature rises in the design software
were inconsistent with these tests, DOE
revised the operating temperature
inputs to the design software to agree
with the tested temperature rise data.
This change in operating temperature
results in slight changes in the baseline
modeled efficiencies. Namely as
operating temperature decreases, motor
efficiency generally increases. Though
these motors meet temperature rise
requirements for Class A insulation
systems, DOE emphasizes again, that its
scope of coverage is not bound to those
motors with temperature rises of less
than Class A requirements, but rather
motors that contain insulation class
systems rated A or higher.
c. Baseline Motor Performance
In the NOPR TSD, DOE presented the
modeled performance characteristics for
the baseline motors selected. Baldor and
NEMA both commented that none of the
baseline motors meet all of the general
purpose performance characteristics for
locked-rotor torque, locked-rotor
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current, and breakdown torque as
defined in NEMA MG1–1987. They
argued that these motors cannot be
considered small electric motors (under
the statutory definition) and therefore,
should have never been chosen as
baseline motors. For polyphase motors,
they cited comparisons to performance
characteristics in NEMA MG1–1987
intended for ‘‘medium’’ motors. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 64–67; NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 7–8)
The NEEA/NPCC disagreed and stated
that because the performance of the
motors selected by DOE were
representative of products on the
market, they were appropriate baseline
models. (NEEA/NPCC, No. 27 at pp. 8–
9)
DOE examined the performance
characteristics of the three baseline
motors, and determined that they meet
all small electric motor performance
requirements of NEMA MG1. Thus, DOE
believes that they are appropriate
baseline motors and are representative
of covered small electric motors on the
market. Table IV.6 below presents
references to NEMA MG1–1987 sections
containing performance characteristics
that DOE believes are relevant to singlephase and polyphase small electric
motors.
TABLE IV.6—NEMA MG1–1987 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS RELEVANT TO GENERAL PURPOSE SMALL MOTORS
Single phase
Breakdown Torque .....................................................................................................
Locked Rotor Current .................................................................................................
Locked Rotor Torque ..................................................................................................
12.32.1 .....................................................
12.33.2 .....................................................
12.32.2 .....................................................
Polyphase
12.37.
None.*
None.
* Because NEMA MG1–1987 section 12.35 is labeled as applying to only medium motors, DOE does not believe there are polyphase locked
rotor current requirements for small motors. However, NEMA commented at the preliminary analysis stage that it is common industry practice to
use the limits for Design B medium motors for small motors. (NEMA. No. 13, p. 6).
DOE notes that in the NOPR TSD,
DOE presented these performance
characteristics at full load, steady state
operating temperature. When
extrapolated down to an ambient
temperature of 25° C, the temperature at
which NEMA specifies that breakdown
torque requirements must be met, all
baseline motors meet the necessary
small motor performance requirements
in MG1. A direct comparison of those
values, as requested by Baldor (Baldor,
No. 25 at p. 2; Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 66) is available
in TSD chapter 5.
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3. Higher Efficiency Motor Designs
After establishing baseline models,
DOE next used the motor design
software to incorporate design options
(generated in the market and technology
assessment and screening analysis) to
increase motor efficiency. In response to
the NOPR engineering analysis, DOE
received several comments that
addressed issues regarding the
application of the design options in the
engineering analysis and the validity of
the results outputted from the design
software.
In general, manufacturers questioned
whether DOE adequately verified that
its design software accurately predicts
motor efficiency. NEMA and Baldor
stated that DOE seemingly used an
AEDM to generate motor designs and
scaled efficiencies for other product
classes without meeting DOE’s own
substantiation requirements of an
AEDM. Emerson stated that in order for
manufacturers to use an AEDM for
compliance and certification with
energy conservation standards, DOE
requires that the AEDM must be applied
to 5 basic models of small electric
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motors, and it be shown to accurately
predict motor efficiency under realworld testing. Collectively, this
constitutes a total of 25 tests
manufacturers must complete in order
to verify their design software.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20.4 at p. 105) Baldor and NEMA
contended that DOE must be held to
these same verification standards if it
uses an AEDM in establishing energy
conservation standards. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 118–
24, 145–146; NEMA, No. 24 at p. 11–12)
NEEA/NPCC disagreed with these
comments, stating that requirements of
certification and compliance with
Federal efficiency regulations are
wholly unrelated and inapplicable to
DOE’s analysis methodology. The motor
design software used in the engineering
analysis was simply being used to create
motor models for analysis, not as an
alternative compliance tool. Thus, DOE
is under no obligation to meet the
verification standards of an AEDM.
NEEA/NPCC stated that based on the
description of the design software, the
technical qualifications of the
consultants, and the motor testing and
teardowns conducted to verify the
accuracy of software tools, it has
satisfied with DOE’s engineering
analysis methodology. (NEEA/NPCC,
No. 27 at pp 6–7).
DOE agrees with NEEA/NPCC that
substantiation of an AEDM is a concept
intended for certifying compliance with
energy efficiency standards. It is a tool
for manufacturers to use to help ensure
that equipment they manufacture
comply with the standards that DOE
sets. It is not a tool for assessing
whether a particular energy efficiency
level under consideration by DOE
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satisfies the EPCA criteria. Accordingly,
the use of the AEDM in the manner
suggested by industry would not be
relevant for the purposes of this
engineering analysis, which is geared
toward DOE’s standards rulemaking.
Moreover, on the bases of the baseline
motor efficiency verification process
which included physical teardowns for
numerous small motors, DOE has
confidence in the software program it
has selected and believes it to be
appropriate to analyze efficiency levels
for small electric motors.8 Though the
supporting data for these tests are based
on confidential manufacturer data, the
performances of these motors verify the
software predictions.
In addition, as discussed in the
NOPR, to the extent that it was feasible,
DOE substantiated the resulting costefficiency curves by testing and tearing
down higher efficiency motors. In
response to that NOPR discussion,
NEMA asserted that as seen in Table
12.1 and Table 12.2 in appendix 5A of
the NOPR, DOE did not compare the test
results to the calculated results for the
representative product classes. (NEMA,
No. 24 at p. 24) DOE wishes to clarify
that Table 12.1 and Table 12.2 in
appendix 5A of the NOPR TSD
contained test results for motors that
were used as part of DOE’s scaling
methodology. The results of the costefficiency curve validation testing for
representative product classes are
shown in Figure 4.1 through Figure 4.3
of appendix 5A of the NOPR and final
rule TSDs.
8 DOE notes that the software used for its analysis
has been employed by numerous motor
manufacturers to develop designs that have then
been used to produce lines of motors, including
capacitor-start and polyphase motors.
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a. Electrical Steel
In the NOPR engineering analysis,
DOE modeled the use improved grades
of electrical steel and thinner
laminations to achieve higher motor
efficiency. In response to that analysis
Baldor and NEMA commented that
because DOE’s design software bases
loss calculations on Epstein core loss
values, they believe DOE’s modeled
efficiencies using improved steel types
may overestimate the actual achievable
efficiency for a particular motor design.
Baldor cited its experience with
building and testing multiple motors
using various steel types, stating that it
has never been shown that the core loss
in a motor with round laminations and
rotating flux field is directly related to
the results of Epstein testing. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 276–80, Baldor, No. 25 at pp. 5–7;
NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 23–24) As a result,
Baldor asserted that DOE should not
rely on steel manufacturer core loss data
unless it is able to produce an actual
motor to verify its design assumptions.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at p. 277) NEEA/NPCC encouraged
DOE to investigate the claims made by
Baldor at the public meeting and revise
the engineering analysis if necessary.
(NEEA/NPCC, No. 27 at pp. 9–10)
DOE recognizes that in analyzing
motor performance, calculated core
losses based on Epstein tests may
deviate from actual core losses in the
motor.9 This is primarily due to the
harmonic effects created by the
distortion of the flux density waveform.
When motor core losses are modeled or
measured at solely the fundamental
frequency, it is possible that additional
losses due to these harmonics may not
be accounted for, which may yield an
overall underestimation of losses. While
DOE acknowledges that this
phenomenon exists, DOE also believes it
has accounted for this effect in its
analysis.
As Baldor suggests, one way to ensure
that a software model is calibrated
correctly to account for effects such as
these is to build prototype motors and
examine their performance
characteristics. Though DOE did not
perform such an exercise specifically for
this rulemaking, the design software
DOE employed for this analysis has
been used in the past to design many
small motors, whose performance
characteristics compare favorably with
9 Epstein tests are performed by steel
manufacturers to determine expected core loss
values in electrical steel. The results of these tests
are usually provided by steel manufacturers and are
used by motor design engineers to predict motor
performance.
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the model predictions. Baldor did not
provide any additional data from which
DOE could refine its analysis or perform
sensitivity analyses, even though it
stated the values of core loss used in
DOE’s software model were inaccurate.
DOE believes that the variances
between Epstein losses and actual motor
losses are not an issue for its
engineering analysis. It is DOE’s
understanding that the Epstein core loss
data begin to vary significantly from
actual motor core losses when various
components of the core steel are driven
into magnetic saturation. Magnetic
saturation is when the amplitude of the
magnetic field excitation is large enough
to force the flux density (of the magnetic
field) into the nonlinear region of the B–
H curve. At this point the harmonic
components of the electromagnetic field
increase.10 As these harmonic
components increase, motor efficiency
may be adversely affected and predicted
core losses from the Epstein tests will
deviate from actual core losses seen in
the motor. In order to assess the degree
to which these harmonic effects may
impact the efficiency of motors analyzed
in the engineering analysis, DOE
examined the magnetic flux densities at
full-load for each motor design. By
using steel manufacturer-provided
magnetization curves, DOE first
determined the saturation point for each
of the lamination types. DOE then
evaluated each of its motor designs to
determine whether it operates near
magnetic saturation. The results of this
analysis indicated that only two motor
designs, the CSIR baseline design and
the polyphase efficiency level (EL) 1
design, operate close to the point of
magnetic saturation at full load. Based
on these results, DOE believes that for
all other motor designs, reliance on the
Epstein core loss data is appropriate to
model motor efficiency.
DOE recognizes that for motors
designs operating near the point of
magnetic saturation (i.e., CSIR baseline
and polyphase EL 1 designs), the
modeled efficiency might deviate from a
tested efficiency if a prototype were
built. With regards to the CSIR baseline
design, DOE notes that, as discussed in
section IV.C.2.a, the efficiency
associated with that design was based
on a tested efficiency, rather than a
modeled efficiency. Therefore, the
baseline efficiency for the CSIR motor
should adequately account for any
harmonic core loss effects. For the
polyphase EL 1 design, DOE recognizes
10 Yamazaki, Katsumi; Watanabe, Yuta. ‘‘Stray
Load Loss Calculation of Induction Motors Using
Electromagnetic Field Analysis.’’ IEEJ Transactions
on Industry Applications, Volume 128, Issue 1, pp.
56–63.
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that there may be significant uncertainty
in its modeled efficiency. However, as
discussed in section VI DOE has found
that an efficiency level higher than EL
1 is technologically feasible and
economically justified based on the net
benefits to the nation and individual
consumers. Therefore, DOE’s standardssetting decisions in this final rule are
not dependent on any uncertainties
associated with the polyphase EL1
motor design. Please refer to TSD
chapter 5 for additional information
regarding the steels used in DOE
engineering analysis, their respective
saturation levels, and the flux densities
of the designs using those steels.
Baldor also questioned the validity of
using several higher efficiency steel
types in small motors, citing an AK steel
publication. Baldor commented that
several of the lamination types modeled,
namely 24M19 and 29M15, are not
recommended for use in motors with
less than a 100 horsepower rating.
(Baldor, No. 25 at p. 7) DOE has
reviewed the referenced AK Steel
publication 11 and disagrees with
Baldor’s assertion. The AK Steel
publication does not suggest that 24M19
and 29M15 steels should not be used in
motors with less than a 100 horsepower
rating; rather it only indicates that small
electric motors currently on the market
do not typically use these steel grades.
In addition, DOE has not received any
comments explaining why these
lamination types, commonly used in
medium motors, would not be
applicable to small electric motors.
Therefore, in this final rule, DOE
continues to use higher efficiency steel
grades and thinner laminations in the
engineering analysis.
b. Thermal Analysis
NEMA and Baldor also questioned
whether a thermal analysis was
conducted for the higher efficiency
motors modeled, stating the importance
of verifying the thermal viability of
motor designs. (NEMA, No. 24 at pp.
6–7, Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20.4 at pp. 28–29) Emerson
commented that the NOPR analysis
disregarded MG1 performance
requirements, including operating
temperatures, potentially cause conflicts
with the National Electrical Code.
(Emerson, No. 28, p. 2) In response to
these comments, DOE has refined its
thermal analysis methodology to ensure
that it is accurately modeling motor
efficiency and that all motor designs
11 AK Steel Product Data Bulletin. Nonoriented
Electrical Steels. https://www.aksteel.com/pdf/
markets_products/electrical/
Non_Oriented_Bulletin.pdf.
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evaluated are thermally viable. As
mentioned in section IV.C.2.b, to
establish the baseline motors’ operating
temperatures, DOE conducted tests in
accordance with the relevant IEEE test
procedures and monitored the
temperature rises of the motors. DOE
was then able to calculate a thermal
resistance for each of the baseline
motors. The thermal resistance of each
subsequent design was modified to
reflect the improved thermal transfer of
the more efficient design. As each
higher efficiency design was modeled,
DOE calculated a new temperature rise.
These calculations indicate that as
motor efficiency increases (through an
increase in the amount of active
material and decrease in I2R losses 12),
the temperature rise of the motor
continually decreases. For this reason,
DOE believes that all higher efficiency
motor designs analyzed in the
engineering analysis have lower
temperature rises than their respective
baseline motors and are thermally
viable. See TSD chapter 5 for additional
information regarding the actual
temperature rises calculated for each of
DOE’s designs.
c. Performance Requirements
As discussed in section IV.C.2.c,
NEMA, through its MG1 publication,
lays out a number of performance
requirements (breakdown torque, locked
rotor torque, and locked rotor current)
that motors must meet in order to be
considered ‘‘general purpose.’’ In
response to the small electric motor
designs presented in the NOPR,
manufacturers commented that some of
DOE’s more efficient designs do not
meet certain performance requirements.
Emerson added that many of the design
changes that would be necessary to meet
these requirements, such as increasing
resistance at locked rotor or increasing
the number of turns of the stator coils,
could actually decrease efficiency.
(Baldor, No. 25 at p. 4; Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 67,
86–87; Baldor, No. 25 at pp. 1–3;
Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20. 4 at pp. 192–93; Emerson, No.
28, p. 1) Emerson also noted that the
costs for the designs might increase
when the motors are adjusted to meet
these performance characteristics.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 73) In light of these comments, DOE
revisited its engineering designs and
found that when new performance
values were calculated at operating
12 I2R losses refer to resistive losses, stemming
from current flow through the copper windings in
the stator and conductor bars in the rotor and
manifest as waste heat which adversely affects the
efficiency of a motor.
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temperatures of 25 °C (as was done for
the baseline designs), the vast majority
of motors met applicable NEMA
standards. For the motors that did not
meet breakdown torque, locked rotor
torque, or locked rotor current
requirements (as presented in TSD
Chapter 5), DOE revised these designs
such that they adhered to all
performance requirements. DOE notes
that in some cases, as predicted by
manufacturers, the design revisions led
to increases in costs to maintain the
same level of efficiency. See Chapter 5
of the TSD for further details on the
performance characteristics of motor
designs analyzed in the engineering
analysis and comparisons to NEMA
performance requirements.
Baldor also noted that many small
electric motors are rated in a broad
voltage range (208V to 230V) and
asserted (without clarifying) that the
NEMA standard specifies these motors
must be able to meet NEMA
performance requirements over the
entire voltage range. Baldor questioned
whether DOE’s proposed efficiency
levels are achievable when motors are
operated across this entire voltage range
(specifically at 208V). (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 271–
72) As indicated by Emerson (Emerson,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 273–74), it is DOE’s understanding
the 208V rating constitutes an unusual
service condition. Thus, DOE’s
engineering analysis was based on
motor operation at 230V.
DOE notes that although the NEMA
standard may require that certain
performance characteristics (such as
breakdown torque) be met through the
entire rated voltage range, there is no
such requirement for Federal efficiency
standards. In fact, DOE’s test procedures
for small electric motors, IEEE 112
(Section 6.1) and IEEE 114 (Section
8.2.1) state that efficiency shall be
determined at the rated voltage, without
specifying which voltage shall be used
in cases where motors are rated with
broad voltages or dual voltages. DOE
understands that it is at the
manufacturer’s discretion under which
single voltage condition to test its
motor. Because the test procedure
outputs an efficiency value at a single
input voltage, DOE did not conduct an
additional analysis at 208V.
Baldor and NEMA stated that MG1
has additional requirements for small
electric motors such as voltage
unbalance, variation from rated speed,
occasional excess current, stall time,
overspeed, and sound quality. (Baldor,
No. 25 at p. 3; NEMA, No. 24 at p. 9)
In examining the variation from rated
speed requirements, DOE notes that
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these are only applicable to medium
motors, and thus not relevant to DOE’s
small electric motor designs. With
regard to the other specifications, DOE
believes that because it purchased the
baseline motors from NEMA
manufacturers, it is reasonable to
assume that the motors meet NEMA
MG1 requirements.
In addition DOE has evaluated each of
its motor designs and believes for the
following reasons that because the
baseline motors likely meet all
specifications, then the higher efficiency
motors are expected to meet them as
well. Specifically, whether a motor is
able to meet voltage unbalance, excess
current, and stall time requirements is
often related to whether a motor
overheats at those specified conditions.
As the I2R losses in higher efficiency
motors modeled are generally lower
than that of the baseline motors (thus,
resulting in a lower temperature rise),
DOE believes that overheating effects
will not be exacerbated with higher
efficiency.
For the overspeed requirement, DOE
understands that there are several
mechanical failure modes that may
cause the motor to be unable to
withstand speeds above the rated speed.
Two primary reasons are the failure of
the motor bearings and the potential for
the motor shaft to bend, causing the
rotor and stator to contact. In addition,
DOE understands this issue to be more
problematic for medium motors (with
larger inertia) than small motors.
Finally, for sound quality, decreased
current and magnetic flux densities in
higher efficiency motors will likely
cause the magnitude of the torque
pulsations of the motor to decrease
during running conditions, reducing
noise. The added mass of higher
efficiency motors also serves as a
dampener to reduce motor vibrations
and noise. Given all of these reasons,
DOE believes that all motor designs
analyzed in the engineering analysis
meet the additional performance
requirements identified by the
commenters.
DOE also received comments at the
public meeting regarding the power
factor associated with its designs.
Baldor commented that during the
preliminary analysis stage of the
rulemaking some parties preferred that
the power factor levels be above 85
percent, but that DOE’s analyses utilized
a power factor around 71 to 73 percent
for polyphase motors. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 275–
76) As discussed in the NOPR, DOE
understands that sacrificing power
factor to obtain gains in efficiency is
counterproductive because of the
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negative effects on line efficiency. 74 FR
61429 For this reason, DOE maintained
or increased the power factor of the
baseline motor for each more efficient
design. While power factor is generally
considered when evaluating the
potential benefits related to a particular
efficiency level, it is not a design option
that necessarily improves the energy
efficiency of small electric motors.
Increasing power factor could yield
results that reduce the energy efficiency
of individual units or impose higher
costs without an increase in energy
efficiency. For this reason, DOE opted
not to require its designs to have an 85
percent power factor in its design
analysis.
d. Stray Load Loss
In the NOPR, DOE presented values of
stray load loss that were modeled in the
design software for the baseline and
higher efficiency motor designs. The
polyphase designs had a value of 2.4
percent for stray load loss, while the
CSIR and CSCR designs had a value of
1.8 percent. In response to the NOPR,
DOE received several comments
regarding the stray load loss values used
in its designs. Baldor commented that in
the absence of a tested stray load loss
value, the IEEE Standard 112 Test
Method A (which is referenced as the
DOE test procedure for polyphase
motors of 1-horsepower or lower)
indicates that a value of 1.8 percent
should be used. As a result, Baldor
questioned the source of DOE’s
polyphase motor stray load loss value.
Baldor was concerned that DOE actually
performed IEEE Standard 112 Test
Method B, which calculates stray load
loss but may yield a different tested
efficiency value than Test Method A. In
Baldor’s view, using Test Method B
could potentially skew the analysis.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 280–82; NEMA, No. at pp.
23–24)
Baldor and NEMA also questioned
why the stray load loss value of 1.8
percent was used for the single-phase
motors when the IEEE Standard 114 test
procedure calls for a measurement of
stray load losses. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 282;
NEMA, No. 24 at p. 24) They were
concerned that DOE did not follow the
IEEE Standard 114 test procedure for the
single-phase motors since the stray load
loss value used did not appear to be a
measured value. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 286) Advanced
Energy supported DOE’s assumptions,
commenting that even though IEEE
Standard 114 calls for a separation of
losses, it also allows an assumed stray
load loss value of 1.8 percent when a
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measured value cannot be determined.
(Advanced Energy, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 285–87)
NEEA/NPCC also commented that
DOE’s stray load loss assumptions were
appropriate. (NEEA/NPCC, No. 27 at
p. 10)
To clarify, DOE tested the polyphase
baseline motor according to both the
IEEE Standard 112 Method A and
Method B test procedures. While
Method A is the appropriate DOE test
procedure for a 1-horsepower, four-pole
small electric motor, Method B
determines efficiency by segregating
motor losses. When DOE compared the
results of Method A and Method B, it
found that there was no material
difference between the resulting tested
efficiencies for this particular motor.
Therefore, DOE assumed that it would
be most accurate to model the stray load
losses determined by IEEE Standard 112
Method B (i.e. 2.4 percent) rather than
an assumed value (i.e. 1.8 percent).
The two baseline single-phase motors
were tested according to IEEE Standard
114. As stated by Advanced Energy, the
IEEE Standard 114 test procedure
provides that if stray load loss is not
measured, then the value of stray load
loss at rated load may be assumed to be
1.8 percent of the rated load, consistent
with DOE’s assumption for CSCR and
CSIR motors. DOE recognizes that losses
can be segregated using the IEEE
Standard 114 test procedure and
therefore also calculated the stray load
losses for the baseline motors. The
results of these tests showed that the
stray load losses for the CSIR and CSCR
baseline motors were 1.8 percent and
1.7 percent. Given the similarity to IEEE
Standard 114 assumed value and
NEMA’s previous recommendation to
use this value, DOE believes that the use
of 1.8 percent stray load loss for the
single-phase motors was appropriate
and has used it again for today’s final
rule.
Additionally, NEMA and Baldor
questioned DOE’s decision to maintain
a constant stray load loss across its
designs within a representative product
class, stating that it would be unlikely
that the use of thinner electrical steels
in a longer core length would have
resulted in the same level of stray load
loss as in the baseline design. (NEMA,
No. 24 at p. 24; Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 281–83) In
response, DOE affirms that its
assumptions of stray load loss for higher
efficiency motor designs are
appropriate. DOE recognizes that several
factors, such as manufacturing process
and harmonic effects, may affect the
quantity of stray load loss for a
particular motor. However, as discussed
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earlier, DOE has determined that the
majority of motor designs evaluated
operate below the point of magnetic
saturation, thus reducing the impact of
harmonic effects. Additionally, DOE
understands that it is common practice
for motor design engineers to assume a
value of stray load loss either based on
experience or as recommended by IEEE
test procedures when creating new,
potentially more efficient, motor
designs. Finally, DOE also notes that
both the polyphase and single-phase
IEEE test procedures provide precedent
for the assumption of constant stray
load losses across several motor designs.
e. Stack Length and Core Diameter
In the NOPR, DOE considered an
increase in stack length as a viable
option for increasing motor efficiency.
DOE recognized, however, that
limitations for certain motor
applications exist because an increase in
stack length may cause the motor to
exceed the space constraints of the
application into which it would reside.
Thus, DOE followed a suggestion made
by NEMA during the preliminary
analysis stage and limited the stack
length increases for space-constrained
applications to no more than a 20
percent increase over the baseline
motor. (NEMA, No. 13, at p. 4) For
applications that DOE considered nonspace constrained, the stack length of
the motor was allowed to increase by up
to 100 percent of the stack length of the
baseline motor (i.e. it could double).
In response to the NOPR analysis,
several interested parties commented on
DOE’s assumptions of space constraints
and stack length increases. WEG
questioned if the 20 percent increase in
stack length for space constrained
applications is an appropriate tolerance.
(WEG, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at p. 83) A.O. Smith commented
that doubling the stack length in nonspace constrained applications will be
somewhat impractical for customers’
applications. (A.O. Smith, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 81).
In response to the manufacturers’
comments, DOE maintains that the 20
percent increase in stack length for
space-constrained applications that was
used in the NOPR is still an acceptable
tolerance. DOE notes that NEMA
reiterated its support for this design
constraint in its comments responding
to the NOPR, by citing its
recommendation from the preliminary
analysis. (NEMA, No. 24 at p. 9)
Regarding doubling the stack length of
the motor, DOE also believes this is an
appropriate tolerance for non-space
constrained applications. When DOE
solicited engineering cost-efficiency
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curves from manufacturers for the
preliminary analysis, all participating
manufacturers suggested that increasing
stack height would be one of the first
design options used to achieve greater
efficiencies because of the relative cost
of this design option versus a change in
steel type lamination. In designs
provided by all of these manufacturers,
stack increases of well over 100 percent
relative to the baseline were used to
achieve target efficiency levels that DOE
provided to manufacturers.
Accordingly, DOE believes that for those
applications that are non-space
constrained, a stack increase of 100
percent is an appropriate and even a
likely design option that manufacturers
could employ. DOE accounts for the
costs associated with increasing a
motor’s stack length in markups
analysis (see section IV.D).
Emerson also commented that the
NOPR efficiency levels would require
several motors to increase in frame size.
(Emerson, No. 28 at p.1) However, DOE
disagrees with Emerson’s comments and
notes that for all higher efficiency
designs developed in the engineering
analysis, core diameter was held
constant to the baseline value. As only
an increase in core diameter would
force a frame size increase, DOE
believes that all efficiency levels
analyzed can be achieved without
increasing frame size.
4. Cost Model
For the NOPR engineering analysis,
DOE estimated the manufacturing
production cost (MPC) of small electric
motors by using outputs of the design
software to generate a complete bill of
materials. The bill of materials was
marked up to account for scrap,
overhead (which includes depreciation)
and associated non-production costs
such as interest payments, research and
development, and sales and general
administration. To account for the
increased depreciation of equipment
associated with manufacturing a copper
rotor, DOE used separate overhead
markups for motor designs using copper
and aluminum rotors. The software
output also included an estimate of
labor time associated with each step of
motor construction. DOE multiplied
these estimates by a fully burdened
labor rate to obtain an estimate of labor
costs.
DOE estimated input costs by using
an inflation-adjusted 5-year average of
prices for each of the input
commodities: Steel laminations, copper
wiring, and aluminum and copper for
rotor die-casting. This method for
calculating costs is consistent with past
rulemakings where material costs were
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a significant part of manufacturers’
costs. In calculating the 5-year average
prices for these commodities, DOE
adjusted historical prices to 2008 terms
using the historical Producer Price
Index (PPI) for that commodity’s
industry. For this final rule, DOE
updated material prices using the PPI to
reflect 2009$. After calculating the MPC,
DOE applied a 1.45 manufacturer
markup to arrive at the MSP.
Emerson commented that it was
concerned that DOE had not
appropriately accounted for the
significant costs associated with
implementing the technology to
manufacture motors with copper diecast rotors in the engineering analysis.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20.4 at p. 94) DOE recognizes that
there are additional costs associated
with implementing copper die-cast
rotors and has incorporated higher
depreciation costs in the Engineering
Analysis for designs requiring this
technology.
With regard to the accounting of
higher depreciation for equipment used
to manufacture copper die-cast rotors,
NEEA/NPCC supported DOE’s approach
to using different overhead markups for
designs with copper rotors and those
with aluminum rotors. (NEEA/NPCC,
No. 27 at p. 9) NEMA commented that
since motor manufacturers typically
standardize its production process for a
product line, the higher overhead
attributable to the application of
advanced technologies will be applied
over all production unless the
manufacturer exits that portion of the
market. (NEMA, No. 24 at p. 9) As all
comments supported the use of higher
markups when manufacturing copper
rotors, DOE maintained this approach in
the engineering analysis for the final
rule. See section IV.C.4 for further
details.
5. Efficiency Scaling
For the NOPR, in order to scale
efficiency levels from the representative
product classes to the other product
classes, DOE used data on
commercially-available motors to
investigate how changing horsepower or
pole configuration affects efficiency,
DOE evaluated product lines of different
manufacturers separately. In developing
these efficiency relationships, DOE
considered only motors of the most
restrictive frame size for a given product
class to ensure that the most
dimensionally-constrained motors on
the market would be able to meet all
efficiency levels derived. DOE then
converted these efficiency relationships
across product class into motor loss
relationships. DOE applied these
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relationships (as a percentage change in
motor losses) to each efficiency level
analyzed for the representative product
classes, ultimately deriving
corresponding efficiency levels for
product classes not directly analyzed in
the engineering analysis. DOE repeated
this analysis for each manufacturer’s
product line for which sufficient data
were available. Finally, DOE averaged
the results based on each of the
manufacturer’s product lines to obtain
aggregated scaled efficiency levels for
all product classes.
DOE received several comments on
the results and methodology of the
proposed scaling analysis. While
NEAA/NPCC supported DOE’s scaling
methodology (NEEA/NPCC, No. 27 at p.
9), Baldor stated that the scaling
presented is likely not accurate because
of the difficulty in predicting
efficiencies when changing frame sizes,
horsepower, and pole configurations.
Instead, Baldor commented that DOE
should create a motor design for each
non-representative product class to
verify the scaled efficiencies. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at p.
97; Baldor, No. 25 at p. 8) WEG also
commented that the scaling should take
into account not only the change in
efficiency associated with altering
horsepower or pole configuration, but
also the drop in efficiency associated
with moving from a 56-frame to a 48frame, and potentially a smaller core
diameter. (WEG, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 220)
In addition, with regard to the
polyphase motor scaling, several
manufacturers pointed to the
efficiencies at high horsepower ratings
as evidence that DOE scaling was
flawed. Specifically, they remarked that
although the proposed level for the
representative polyphase product class
harmonized with medium motor NEMA
Premium efficiency standards, the 3horsepower, six-pole polyphase motor
had a scaled efficiency greater than the
NEMA Premium level.13 They also
noted that because the comparable
medium motor for that product class is
built in a 213 T-frame (larger than a 56frame), it may be unreasonable to
require a 56-frame motor to have a
higher efficiency. (A.O. Smith, No. 26 at
p. 2; Baldor, No. 25 at p. 8; Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 100–101, 212–213; Regal-Beloit,
13 NEMA Premium refers to efficiency levels for
three-digit frame series medium electric motors
developed by NEMA to identify high efficiency
motors. Congress subsequently adopted those levels
for medium electric motors. See EISA 2007, Sec.
313(b).
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Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp.105)
DOE agrees that the efficiency
behavior at high horsepower ratings for
polyphase motors indicated a lack of
accuracy in the NOPR scaling, and has
revised its analysis for the final rule.
Baldor’s recommendation to generate
motor designs to validate scaling
essentially constitutes developing an
additional engineering analysis for
every product class, which is atypical
for DOE rulemakings and unnecessary
because it defeats the purpose of using
a scaling methodology. In addition, DOE
notes that in its comments on the
preliminary analysis, NEMA
recommended that DOE utilize product
literature to derive efficiency levels for
product classes not directly analyzed in
the engineering analysis, which was a
significant reason why DOE maintained
a scaling approach based partially on
publicly available data. (NEMA, No. 13,
at p. 10) Thus, DOE believes scaling is
an appropriate approach to developing
efficiency levels. As interested parties
did not recommend a new methodology
for scaling, DOE based it revised scaling
on the same general methodology
(establishing relationships in efficiency
across horsepower ratings and pole
configurations), but utilized additional
sources of data to refine its inputs.
One new source of data DOE utilized
was the NEMA recommended standard
levels for polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR
motors built in small frames (42- and
48-frames) and in 56-frames. These
recommended standard levels included
efficiencies for motors with horsepower
ratings less than and equal to 1horsepower and with two-, four-, or sixpole configurations. (NEMA, No. 24 at
p. 1) DOE first examined this data to see
how it compared to the efficiency data
of motors currently on the market. DOE
noted that the efficiency relationships
that NEMA presented between product
classes were comparable to the market
data that DOE had collected for the
NOPR. For this reason, DOE concludes
that NEMA’s recommended standard
levels can be used to establish
appropriate efficiency (or loss)
relationships for lower horsepower
polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR motors.
For the high horsepower (greater than
or equal to 1-horsepower) polyphase
motors, DOE utilized the relationships
10895
found in the NEMA Premium standards
for electric motors. As seen in Table
IV.7, the majority of the NEMA
Premium standards between 1- and 3horsepower are based on motors with a
frame size in the 140T series, which has
the same foot to shaft dimension as the
56-frame motor. Therefore, for these
140T series product classes, DOE used
NEMA Premium efficiencies to develop
relationships across horsepower ratings
and poles. DOE did not use the
efficiency relationships found from
NEMA Premium classes associated with
larger frame sizes (182T). For these
horsepower/pole configurations, DOE
did not have sufficient efficiency data to
determine appropriate scaling
relationships. Thus, though efficiency
generally increases with horsepower, in
order to ensure that all efficiency levels
are technologically feasible, DOE
decided that the 3-horsepower, fourpole motor and 11⁄2-horsepower, two
pole motor would have the same
minimum efficiency standards as the 2horsepower, four-pole motor and 1horsepower, two-pole motor,
respectively.
TABLE IV.7—FRAME SIZES ASSOCIATED WITH NEMA PREMIUM STANDARDS
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Six poles
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
1 hp/0.75 kW ...............................................................................................................................
11⁄2 hp/1.1 kW ..............................................................................................................................
2 hp/1.5 kW .................................................................................................................................
3 hp/2.2 kW .................................................................................................................................
In the absence of any standardized
efficiency levels above 1-horsepower for
CSIR motors (such as those provided in
the NEMA Premium table for polyphase
motors), DOE continued to use market
efficiency data. Since this approach,
when used in the NOPR, resulted in
some aberrations (abnormally high
efficiencies) for high horsepower
polyphase motors, DOE modified its
methodology slightly for the final rule to
result in more appropriate scaling
relationships. As stated earlier, for the
NOPR, because some manufacturers
showed larger increases in efficiency
with increasing horsepower than others,
DOE averaged data from several
manufacturer product lines to create
efficiency relationships. However, for
this final rule, to ensure the
technological feasibility of all scaled
efficiency levels, instead of averaging
data from all manufacturers, DOE
selected the product line which resulted
in the most achievable efficiency levels.
As mentioned in the NOPR, DOE was
unable to locate sufficient market data
for CSCR motors. However, DOE data
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indicate that CSCR motors exhibit
scaling relationships similar to CSIR
motors. For these reasons, DOE decided
to continue utilizing CSIR market data
to characterize the efficiency (or loss)
relationships present in the CSCR
market at high horsepower ratings.
Next, DOE addressed changes in
physical dimensions of motors across
horsepower ratings and pole
configurations. As discussed earlier,
DOE recognizes that core diameter
affects the amount of active material
that is used to reduce motor losses, thus
impacting efficiency. If DOE were to set
a standard based on an analysis of a
motor of larger core diameter, it could
potentially eliminate smaller core
diameter motors from the market.
Therefore, after establishing the
efficiency relationships (by using the
NEMA recommended levels, the NEMA
Premium levels, and market data), DOE
accounted for the fact that for some
horsepower/pole configurations, 48frame size motors are commercially
available, while for others, only 56-
PO 00000
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56
143T
145T
145T
Four poles
143T
145T
145T
182T
Two poles
145T
182T
........................
........................
frame size motors are commercially
available.
As stated by WEG at the NOPR public
meeting, a reduction in frame size (or
core diameter) should accompanied by
a reduction in efficiency. To determine
the appropriate efficiency reduction of
shifting from a motor with a core
diameter representative of a 56-frame to
a core diameter representative of a 48frame, DOE again utilized the NEMA
recommended efficiencies. From these
efficiency values, DOE noted that
according to NEMA a shift in frame size
constitutes approximately a 20 percent
change in losses. DOE applied this 20
percent reduction in losses to product
classes for which 42 frame or 48-frame
motors are commercially available. DOE
intends for its loss scaling analysis to
reflect motors in the smallest
commercially available frame size for
each product class.
After deriving efficiency relationships
accounting for changes in horsepower,
pole configuration, and core diameter,
DOE then applied these relationships
(as a percentage change in motor losses)
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to each efficiency level of the
representative product classes,
ultimately deriving corresponding
efficiency levels for the nonrepresentative product classes.
6. Cost-Efficiency Results
The results of the engineering analysis
are reported as cost-efficiency data (or
‘‘curves’’) in the form of MSP (in dollars)
versus full-load efficiency (in
percentage). These data form the basis
for subsequent analyses in the final rule.
As discussed in the NOPR, DOE
developed two curves for each product
class analyzed, one for the spaceconstrained set of designs restricted by
a 20-percent increase in stack height
and one for the non-space constrained
set of designs restricted by a 100-percent
increase in stack height relative to the
baseline.
NEMA recommended efficiency levels
for small electric motors that it believed
would be technologically feasible to
implement by 2015. NEMA presented
six separate sets of efficiency levels, one
for 56-frame size motors in each of the
three motor categories and one for 42and 48-frame size motors in each of the
three motor categories. (NEMA, No. 24
at p. 1) When DOE revised its
engineering analysis, it ensured that
each of its representative units had an
efficiency level that corresponded to
one of those sets of standards. For CSIR
motors, NEMA proposed an efficiency
value of 72.0 percent for a 48-frame size,
four-pole 1⁄2-horsepower motor. This
proposal roughly corresponds to DOE’s
efficiency level 4 for CSIR motors. For
CSCR motors NEMA proposed an
efficiency value of 80.0 percent for a 56frame size, four-pole, 3⁄4-horsepower
motor. This proposal corresponds to
DOE’s efficiency level 2 for CSCR
motors.
For polyphase motors, NEMA did not
present an efficiency value for the fourpole, 1-horsepower product class. In
light of this, DOE utilized its scaling
model to identify the projected
efficiency for the four-pole, 1horsepower product class according to
NEMA’s recommendations for the 42and 48-frame size motors. DOE used the
42/48-frame size proposed levels to
apply to its representative product class
because the core diameter of its baseline
model is representative of 48-frame size
motors. DOE projects this efficiency
value to be approximately 82.6 percent
for the representative polyphase motor.
As this efficiency lies between the
designs analyzed for EL 4 and EL5, DOE
created an additional efficiency level at
82.6 percent, denoted EL 4b. DOE
developed a new space constrained and
non-space constrained design at this
efficiency level that adhered to all of
DOE’s design limitations.
Table IV.8 through Table IV.10 show
the efficiency value and manufacturer
selling price data for each EL examined
in the final rule.
TABLE IV.8—EFFICIENCY AND MANUFACTURER SELLING PRICE DATA FOR POLYPHASE MOTOR
Efficiency
(%)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
Efficiency level
Manufacturer selling
price
($)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
75.3
77.3
78.8
80.5
81.1
83.5/83.5
85.3/85.2
86.2/86.3
87.7/87.8
98.54
104.83
108.17
114.24
118.54
135.62/134.04
230.92/153.92
237.70/186.37
1,766.06/326.18
Baseline ...........................................................................................................................................
EL 1 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 2 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 3 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 4 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 4b ...............................................................................................................................................
EL 5 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 6 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 7 (Max-tech) ...............................................................................................................................
* Design 1 denotes the space-constrained design, and Design 2 denotes the non-space-constrained design. If only one value is listed, then the
space-constrained design is the same as the non-space-constrained design.
TABLE IV.9—EFFICIENCY AND MANUFACTURER SELLING PRICE DATA FOR CAPACITOR-START, INDUCTION-RUN MOTOR
Efficiency (%)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
Efficiency level
Manufacturer selling
price ($)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
57.9
61.1
63.5
65.7
70.6/70.5
71.8/71.8
73.1/73.3
77.6/77.7
91.24
95.43
98.45
99.58
114.31/106.99
117.07/118.00
182.09/132.22
1,200.98/151.25
Baseline ...........................................................................................................................................
EL 1 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 2 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 3 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 4 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 5 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 6 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 7 (Max-tech) ...............................................................................................................................
* Design 1 denotes the space-constrained design, and Design 2 denotes the non-space-constrained design. If only one value is listed, then the
space-constrained design is the same as the non-space-constrained design.
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
TABLE IV.10—EFFICIENCY AND MANUFACTURER SELLING PRICE DATA FOR CAPACITOR-START, CAPACITOR-RUN MOTOR
Efficiency
(%)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
Efficiency level
Manufacturer selling
price
($)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
71.4
75.1
79.5/79.5
111.72
117.13
137.20/129.88
Baseline ...........................................................................................................................................
EL 1 .................................................................................................................................................
EL 2 .................................................................................................................................................
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TABLE IV.10—EFFICIENCY AND MANUFACTURER SELLING PRICE DATA FOR CAPACITOR-START, CAPACITOR-RUN MOTOR—
Continued
Efficiency
(%)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
EL
EL
EL
EL
EL
EL
3
4
5
6
7
8
Manufacturer selling
price
($)
(Design 1/Design 2) *
81.7/81.8
82.8/82.8
84.1/84.0
84.8/84.6
86.8/86.7
88.1/87.9
Efficiency level
142.63/135.56
146.44/142.76
154.55/151.91
236.98/158.25
244.03/175.75
1,771.47/327.69
.................................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................................
(Max-tech) ...............................................................................................................................
* Design 1 denotes the space-constrained design, and design 2 denotes the non-space-constrained design. If only one value is listed, then the
space-constrained design is the same as the non-space-constrained design.
D. Markups To Determine Equipment
Price
To calculate the equipment prices
faced by small electric motor
purchasers, DOE multiplied the
manufacturing costs developed from the
engineering analysis by the supply
chain markups it developed (along with
sales taxes). In the NOPR, DOE
explained how it developed the
distribution channel markups used. 74
FR 61434.
DOE did not receive comments on
these markups; however, in written
comments, NEMA and DOJ commented
that some original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) could incur
additional design costs to redesign their
products to accommodate the increased
size of more efficient motor designs.
(NEMA, No. 24 at p.19 and DOJ No. 29
at p. 2) DOE recognizes that motors
produced following the introduction of
the standards described in this rule will
likely be different in size and shape
from motors produced today. In
particular, the designs produced in
DOE’s engineering analysis exhibit
longer stack length to increase
1.27 to 1.29 for OEMs without a
distributor, and 1.33 to 1.35 for OEMs
that purchase motors through
distributors.
DOE used these markups, along with
sales taxes, installation costs, and
manufacturer selling prices (MSPs)
developed in the engineering analysis,
to arrive at the final installed equipment
prices for baseline and higher efficiency
small electric motors. As explained in
the NOPR (74 FR 61434), DOE defined
three distribution channels for small
electric motors to describe how the
equipment passes from the
manufacturer to the customer. DOE
retained the same distribution channel
market shares described in the NOPR.
Table IV.11 summarizes for each of
the three identified distribution
channels the baseline and incremental
markups at each stage and the overall
markups, including sales taxes.
Weighting the markups in each channel
by its share of shipments yields an
average overall baseline markup of 2.52
and an average overall incremental
markup of 1.86. DOE used these
markups for all three types of motors.
efficiency. DOE also projects that the
standards may result in significant
increases in market share for CSCR
motors (which have an extra external
capacitor). DOE understands that these
changes may result in the need for some
OEMs who incorporate these motors to
redesign their products. Nationally,
about 2.5% of U.S. gross domestic
product is spent on research and
development (R&D; National Science
Board. 2010. Science and Engineering
Indicators 2010. Arlington, VA: National
Science Foundation (NSB 10–01)). DOE
estimates that R&D by equipment OEMs,
including the design of new products,
generally represents approximately 2
percent of company revenue. This
percentage is slightly less than the
national average to account for high
technology companies that generally
spend a much larger fraction of revenue
on R&D than OEMs of equipment that
incorporate small motors. DOE
accounted for the additional costs to
redesign products and incorporate
differently-shaped motors by adding 2%
to the OEM markup, increasing the
baseline OEM markup from 1.37 to 1.39
and the incremental OEM markup from
TABLE IV.11—SUMMARY OF SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL MARKUPS
Direct to OEMs
65%
Via distributors to OEMs
30%
Incremental
Wholesale Distributor ...............................
........................
........................
1.28
1.10
1.28
1.10
OEM .........................................................
1.39
1.29
1.39
1.35
........................
........................
Retail and Post-OEM Distributor .............
1.43
1.18
1.43
1.18
1.44
1.18
Contractor or Installer ..............................
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Baseline
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
1.10
Sales Tax .................................................
1.0684
Overall ......................................................
2.34
Using these markups, DOE generated
motor end-user prices for each
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Baseline
Via distributors to end-users
5%
Incremental
1.0684
1.79
Frm 00025
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Sfmt 4700
Incremental
1.0684
2.99
efficiency level it considered, assuming
that each level represents a new
PO 00000
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2.06
2.17
1.53
minimum efficiency standard. Because
it generated a range of price estimates,
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DOE describes prices within a range of
uncertainty.
Chapter 7 of the TSD provides
additional detail on the markups
analysis.
E. Energy Use Characterization
The energy use characterization
estimates the annual energy
consumption of small electric motors.
This estimate is used in the subsequent
LCC and PBP analyses (chapter 8 of the
TSD) and National Impacts Analysis
(NIA) (chapter 11 of the TSD). DOE
determined the annual energy
consumption of small electric motors by
five application categories: Pumps; fans
and blowers; air compressors; conveyors
and material handling; and general
industrial or miscellaneous
applications. Motor energy use depends
on application because different
applications have different annual hours
of operation and different average motor
loading.
In the NOPR, DOE presented the
results of an analysis of motor
shipments into the five application
categories. Table IV.12 shows the
distribution of motor shipments by
application presented in the NOPR.
multiplying the energy use while in
operation by the annual hours of
operation. The energy use in operation
is a function of the motor loading and
the losses resulting from motor
operation, based on the motor designs
characterized in the engineering
analysis. DOE’s motor designs are also
characterized by their power factor,
which allows DOE to estimate the
reactive power requirements of each
analyzed motor.
1. Applications
DOE’s shipments analysis indicates
that small electric motors are used in
TABLE IV.12—DISTRIBUTION OF MOTORS BY APPLICATION AND MOTOR TYPE
Polyphase
(%)
Motor application
CSIR
(%)
CSCR
(%)
Reference Case:
Air and gas compressors .....................................................................................................
Conveyors & packaging equipment .....................................................................................
General industrial machinery ................................................................................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ....................................................................................
Pumps and pumping equipment ..........................................................................................
Service industry ....................................................................................................................
17.3
13.3
11.3
7.3
50.7
0.0
14.9
11.9
12.5
6.9
53.7
0.0
14.9
11.9
12.5
6.9
53.7
0.0
Total ...............................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
Sensitivity (NEMA Survey):
Air and gas compressors .....................................................................................................
Conveyors & packaging equipment .....................................................................................
General industrial machinery ................................................................................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ....................................................................................
Pumps and pumping equipment ..........................................................................................
Service industry ....................................................................................................................
45
5
7
23
15
5
22
2
1
51
13
11
45
2
1
29
12
11
Total ...............................................................................................................................
100.0
100.0
100.0
In written comments, NEMA
submitted the results of a survey of their
OEM customers for motors which
NEMA considers to be covered
products. (NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 19 to
21) The survey reports distributions by
application and owner type, estimates of
annual hours of operation, and the
fraction of motors that are spaceconstrained. NEMA also provided
information on a sixth application not
included in DOE’s NOPR, service
industry motors. The distribution by
application and motor type provided by
NEMA is also shown in Table IV.13.
Census and U.S. Customs data regarding
production and imports of motors and
equipment containing motors. For these
reasons, DOE retained its assumptions
regarding the distribution of motors by
application and sector; however, DOE
did run a sensitivity case that reflects
the results of the NEMA survey. This
sensitivity is discussed in Section VI,
and the detailed results are presented in
the TSD.
Table IV.13 shows the distributions of
motors by sector within each
application used in the NOPR, as well
as the results provided by the NEMA
survey.
DOE has concerns about the accuracy
of the results of this survey. It is not
clear which OEMs were contacted for
the survey, how many responded, how
representative the respondents are of the
small motor market, and what specific
questions were asked. It is also not clear
that the survey results represent an
accurate picture of the entire U.S.
market for small motors, or how all
OEMs will respond to today’s rule. In
contrast, the distributions by motor
application that DOE used in the NOPR
were based on analysis conducted in the
early stages of the rulemaking,
supplemented by a review of U.S.
TABLE IV.13—DISTRIBUTION OF MOTORS BY APPLICATION AND SECTOR
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Sector
Application
Industrial
(%)
Reference Case:
Air and gas compressors ..............................................
Conveyors & Packaging Equipment .............................
General industrial machinery ........................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ............................
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Commercial
(%)
40
40
50
50
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(%)
40
50
40
50
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10
10
0
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(%)
10
0
0
0
Total
(%)
100
100
100
100
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10899
TABLE IV.13—DISTRIBUTION OF MOTORS BY APPLICATION AND SECTOR—Continued
Sector
Application
Industrial
(%)
Commercial
(%)
Agricultural
(%)
Total
(%)
Residential
(%)
Pumps and pumping equipment ...................................
Service industry ............................................................
40
0
35
0
20
0
5
0
100
N/A
Sensitivity (NEMA Survey):
Air and gas compressors ..............................................
Conveyors & Packaging Equipment .............................
General industrial machinery ........................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ............................
Pumps and pumping equipment ...................................
Service industry ............................................................
0
65
80
20
10
10
15
35
20
80
40
80
15
0
0
0
20
0
70
0
0
0
30
10
100
100
100
100
100
100
2. Annual Hours of Operation and
Motor Loading
Transcript No. 20.4 at pp. 197–99).
According to Emerson, the distribution
of hours of operation that DOE assumed
for each application, detailed in the
Average
Application
loading
TSD, is a highly skewed distribution in
(%)
which the mean and median can be
significantly different. As a result of its
Air and gas compressors .........
85
survey of OEMs, NEMA reported lower
Conveyors & Packaging Equipment ......................................
50 hours of operation only for compressors,
General industrial machinery ....
70 and reported that service industry
motors run 1000 hours per year on
Indus. and comm. fans and
blowers ..................................
80 average, with a median of 400 hours.
Pumps and pumping equipment
65 However, by including in the table in
Service industry ........................
70 their written comments the operating
hour assumptions DOE used in the
In the NOPR, DOE assumed
NOPR for the other applications, NEMA
distributions of the annual hours of
appears to accept DOE’s assumptions of
operation in each application with
hours of operation for conveyors,
means and medians as shown in Table
general industrial machinery, fans and
IV.15. At the December 17, 2009 public
blowers, and pumps. The mean and
meeting, Emerson commented that the
median hours of operation in each
average hours of operation within each
application in the reference and
application assumed by DOE are too
sensitivity case are shown in Table
high (Emerson, Public Meeting
IV.15.
TABLE IV.14—AVERAGE MOTOR
LOADING BY APPLICATION
In the NOPR, and in today’s final rule,
DOE characterized the motor loading
and annual hours of operation with
distributions for each analyzed motor
application. DOE’s estimates of the
average motor loading in each
application are unchanged from the
NOPR to today’s final rule. Table IV.14
shows the average loading in each
application. DOE assumed that the
motor loading distribution took the form
of a normal distribution, centered on the
average value, with a standard deviation
equal to one fifth of the average loading.
Details on these calculations are
provided in chapter 6 of the TSD.
TABLE IV.15—MEDIAN AND MEAN ANNUAL HOURS OF OPERATION AND FRACTION THAT RUN ALL THE TIME, BY MOTOR
APPLICATION
Annual Hours of Operation
Application
Median
Mean
Fraction of
motors that
run all the time
(%)
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Reference Case:
Air and gas compressors .....................................................................................................
Conveyors & Packaging Equipment .....................................................................................
General industrial machinery ................................................................................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ....................................................................................
Pumps and pumping equipment ..........................................................................................
Service industry ....................................................................................................................
375
2000
1200
2825
1850
NA
600
3000
2000
4500
3000
NA
0
8
4
40
12
NA
Sensitivity (NEMA Survey):
Air and gas compressors .....................................................................................................
Conveyors & Packaging Equipment .....................................................................................
General industrial machinery ................................................................................................
Indus. and comm. fans and blowers ....................................................................................
Pumps and pumping equipment ..........................................................................................
Service industry ....................................................................................................................
100
2000
1200
2825
1850
400
200
3000
2000
4500
3000
1000
0
0
4
10
12
2
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analysis
In response to the requirements of
section 325(o)(2)(B)(i) of the Act, DOE
conducted LCC and PBP analyses to
evaluate the economic impacts of
possible amended energy conservation
standards on small electric motor
customers. This section of the notice
describes these analyses. DOE
conducted the analysis using a
spreadsheet model developed in
Microsoft (MS) Excel for Windows 2003.
The LCC is the total consumer
expense over the life of the equipment,
including purchase and installation
expense and operating costs (energy
expenditures, repair costs, and
maintenance costs). The PBP is the
maintenance and repair costs,
equipment lifetime, and discount rates.
Table IV.16 summarizes the
approaches and data DOE used to derive
the inputs to the LCC and PBP
calculations for the NOPR. For today’s
final rule, DOE did not introduce
changes to the LCC and PBP analyses
methodology described in the NOPR,
but incorporated changes to the inputs
to the analysis to account for updates to
the engineering analysis and energy
price trends and to analyze the
sensitivity of the results using the
survey data NEMA provided. Chapter 8
of the TSD contains detailed discussion
of the methodology utilized for the LCC
and PBP analyses as well as the inputs
developed for the analyses.
number of years it would take for the
consumer to recover the increased costs
of a higher-efficiency equipment
through energy savings. To calculate the
LCC, DOE discounted future operating
costs to the time of purchase and
summed them over the lifetime of the
equipment. DOE measured the change
in LCC and the change in PBP
associated with a given efficiency level
relative to a base case forecast of
equipment efficiency. The base case
forecast reflects the market in the
absence of amended mandatory energy
conservation standards. As part of the
LCC and PBP analyses, DOE developed
data that it used to establish equipment
prices, installation costs, annual energy
consumption, energy and water prices,
TABLE IV.16—SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND KEY ASSUMPTIONS IN THE LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSES
Inputs
NOPR
Changes for the Final Rule
Affecting Installed Costs
Equipment Price ......................................
Derived by multiplying manufacturer cost by manufacturer, distributor and OEM markups, and
sales tax.
Based on data from RSMeans ..............................
Installation Cost .......................................
No change.
No change.
Affecting Operating Costs
Annual Energy Use .................................
Derived by multiplying hours of operation by
losses, accounting for motor loading. Reactive
power demand calculated from power factor.
Energy Prices ..........................................
Electricity: Distribution of values for each sector,
updated using EIA’s 2007 Form 861 data.
Energy: Reference Case forecast updated with
EIA’s AEO 2009 April Release. High-Price and
Low-Price forecasts updated with EIA’s AEO
2009 March Release. Carbon Cap and Trade
case from Lieberman-Warner.
Unchanging with efficiency ....................................
Energy Price Trends ................................
Repair and Maintenance Costs ...............
No change in operating hours in the reference
case; changes to operating hours of compressors in the sensitivity cases. Losses, loading
and reactive power changed slightly, as a result of the updated engineering analysis.
No change.
AEO 2010 for the reference; ratios from AEO
2009 March release used for high and low.
No change.
Affecting Present Value of Annual Operating Cost Savings
Equipment Lifetime ..................................
Discount Rates ........................................
Mean of 7 and 9 years. Lifetime is correlated with
annual hours of operation.
Approach based on cost of capital of publicly
traded firms in the sectors that purchase small
electric motors. Primary data source is
Damodaran Online.14
No change.
No change.
Affecting Installed and Operating Costs
Space Constraints ...................................
Effective Date of New Standard ..............
Assumed 20% of motors in OEM applications
face space constraints.
2015 .......................................................................
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1. Installation Cost
Installation costs include labor,
overhead, and any miscellaneous
materials and parts. For the NOPR and
today’s final rule, DOE used data from
the RS Means Mechanical Cost Data,
2008 on labor requirements to estimate
installation costs for small electric
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No change in reference case; analyzed 62% and
95% sensitivity cases.
No change.
motors. DOE estimates that installation
costs do not increase with equipment
efficiency.
14 Please see the following Web site for further
information: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/.
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2. Energy Prices
For both the NOPR and today’s final
rule, DOE developed nationally
representative distributions of
electricity prices for different customer
categories (industrial, commercial, and
residential) from 2007 Energy
Information Administration (EIA) Form
861 data, the most recent data available.
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DOE estimates that marginal energy
prices for electric motors are close to
average prices, which vary by customer
type and utility. The average prices (in
2009$) for each sector are 7.5 cents for
the industrial and agricultural sectors,
10.4 cents for the commercial sector,
and 11.7 cents for the residential sector.
DOE also estimated an average reactive
power charge of $0.51 per kilovolt-amps
reactive (kVAr) per month using survey
data provided in written comments
submitted during the preliminary
analysis stage of the rulemaking by
Edison Electric Institute. The data
identified those customers who are
subject to a reactive power charge. (EEI,
No. 14 at p. 6)
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3. Energy Price Trend
To estimate the trends in electricity
prices for the NOPR, DOE used the price
forecasts in the 2009 Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO 2009) April Release.15 To
arrive at prices in future years, DOE
multiplied the average prices described
above by the forecast of annual average
price changes. Because the AEO 2009
forecasts prices only to 2030, DOE
followed past guidelines provided to the
Federal Energy Management Program by
EIA and used the average rate of change
during 2020–2030 to estimate the price
trends beyond 2030. For today’s final
rule, DOE had updated its analysis to
use the price forecasts in the AEO 2010
Early Release, which includes price
forecasts until 2035. DOE used the
average rate of change from 2025 to
2035 to estimate price trends beyond
2035.
The spreadsheet tools used to conduct
the LCC and PBP analysis allow users to
select either the AEO’s high-price case
or low-price case price forecasts to
estimate the sensitivity of the LCC and
PBP to different energy price forecasts.
The AEO 2009 April Release and AEO
2010 Early Release only provide
forecasts for the Reference Case.
Therefore, for the NOPR, DOE used the
AEO 2009 March Release high-price or
low-price forecasts directly to estimate
high-price and low-price trends. For
today’s final rule, DOE updated the lowprice ad high-price forecasts to be based
on the ratio between the AEO 2009
March Release low- or high-price
forecasts and the AEO 2009 March
Release reference case. DOE then
applied these ratios to the AEO 2010
Early Release reference case to construct
its high-price and low-price forecasts.
15 All AEO publications are available online at:
https://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/.
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4. Maintenance and Repair Costs
Small electric motors are not usually
repaired, because they often outlast the
equipment in which they are installed.
DOE found no evidence that repair or
maintenance costs would increase with
higher motor energy efficiency. In
response to the preliminary analysis, no
interested parties provided any
comments or data indicating that
maintenance or repair costs are likely to
change with motor efficiency. Thus, in
today’s final rule DOE did not change
the repair and maintenance costs for
motors that are more efficient than
baseline products that were presented in
the NOPR.
5. Equipment Lifetime
For the NOPR and today’s final rule,
DOE developed motor lifetime
distributions for each motor application,
with a mean of seven years for
capacitor-start motors and a mean of
nine years for polyphase motors. Each
distribution incorporates a correlation
between the motor annual hours of
operation and the motor lifetime. Motor
lifetime is governed by two Weibull
distributions. One characterizes the
motor lifetime in total operating hours
while the other characterizes the
lifetime in years of use in the
application. Motors are retired from
service at the age when they reach either
of these limits.
6. Discount Rates
The discount rate is the rate at which
future expenditures are discounted to
estimate their present value. DOE used
the classic economic definition that
discount rates are equal to the cost of
capital. The cost of capital is a
combination of debt interest rates and
the cost of equity capital to the affected
firms and industries. For each end-use
sector, DOE developed a distribution of
discount rates. DOE’s methodology and
inputs for calculating discount rates are
unchanged from the NOPR (74 FR
61440), and details are available in
chapter 8 of the TSD. In response to the
NOPR, DOE did not receive any
comments regarding customer discount
rates.
7. Space-Constrained Applications and
the After-Market
Comments at the NOPR public
meeting (WEG, Emerson, and RegalBeloit, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 184–85, 191–92), and in
written comments (NEMA, No. 24 at
p. 19; DOJ, No. 29 at p. 2), expressed
concerns regarding the challenges faced
by users who purchase motors to
replace existing motors within their
applications. (This market is referred to
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10901
as the ‘‘after-market.’’) In particular,
these customers might face difficulty
replacing motors in space-constrained
applications with new motors of
different size. Motors are sold to these
customers through distributors or
OEMs. DOE was unable to obtain data
on the size and structure of the spaceconstrained portion of this market.
However, DOE’s motor lifetime
function, which differentiates between
motors retired due to mechanical failure
and motors retired when the application
in which they reside is retired, indicates
that approximately 25-percent of small
electric motors retire because of
mechanical failure. Only users of these
motors would be participants in the
after-market, as other users replace their
complete application rather than the
motor alone. DOE has assumed that 20percent of motor application are spaceconstrained, indicating that
approximately 5-percent of motors are
both space-constrained and retire due to
mechanical failure—these users would
participate in the after-market.
As discussed above in section IV.E,
the NEMA survey reported on the
fraction of motors purchased by OEMs
that face space constraints inside their
application. NEMA reported that 62
percent of the OEMs responding to the
survey stated that any increase in size
would negatively impact their ability to
use the motor in their current
applications, and that 33-percent stated
that their applications could accept
‘‘only a slight increase’’ in size; only 5
percent stated that their application had
few space constraints.
While DOE appreciates the
information provided by NEMA, the
agency has concerns regarding how well
the sample represents total U.S. small
motor shipments and possible survey
response bias. In addition, as part of its
written comments, NEMA has proposed
alternative standards. These alternative
standards appear to indicate that if
nearly all OEMs face space constraints
for motors in their products, it would be
difficult for motor manufacturers to
achieve the efficiency level called for in
the NEMA standard levels without large
cost increases. For these reasons, DOE
has retained its assumption that 20percent of the small motors are installed
in applications that cannot
accommodate any size increases.
OEMs that manufacture applications
with space constraints on their motors
have several options: (1) Redesign their
application to accommodate a motor
with a longer stack and/or a run
capacitor; (2) purchase a stockpile of
motors not covered by today’s rule to
install in future production of their
application; (3) replace a less efficient
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CSIR motor with a more efficient CSCR
motor without increasing stack length;
or (4) replace their motor with a motor
not covered by today’s rule. DOE
estimates the likelihood and effect of
each of these outcomes in its analysis of
national impacts, by: Increasing the
OEM baseline and incremental markups
by 2 percent to either pay for redesign
of their products to accommodate larger
motors or purchase a stockpile of
existing motors of the correct size;
applying a model that estimates the
migration from CSIR to CSCR motors,
based on the relative difference in
equipment and operating costs of the
two types of motors and the assumed
fraction that are space-constrained; and
changing the assumption in the
reference case regarding the elasticity of
demand for small electric motors to a
change in purchase price (from zero, or
inelastic, to ¥0.25), thereby increasing
the number of motors expected to
migrate to totally enclosed motors not
covered by today’s rule. These
assumptions result in nearly the entire
CSIR market migrating to CSCR motors
under the proposed standards, with net
benefits to the average motor customer.
In response to this comment, DOE
analyzed the impact of increasing the
space-constrained fraction to 62 percent
and to 95 percent of all motors in its
sensitivity case (the additional 2-percent
markup is not included in these two
scenarios). These results are
summarized in section VI below.
Emerson also pointed out that the
OEMs whose products have space
constraints are typically smaller
companies that have a hard time reengineering their product when changes
in size occur. (Emerson, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 83–85) DOE
recognizes that smaller OEMs that
manufacture products which cannot
readily be altered to accommodate a
larger motor may be adversely affected
by today’s rule. In analyzing the
potential impact of today’s standards on
customers, DOE evaluated the impact on
identifiable groups of end-use motor
customers (i.e., subgroups), such as
small businesses, that may not be
equally affected by a national standard
level. The results of the subgroup
analysis for small businesses can be
found in section VI.C.1.b of this notice.
8. Standard Compliance Date
The date by which all small electric
motor manufacturers must manufacture
motors that satisfy the new standards
announced in today’s rule is statutorilyprescribed under EPCA. See 42 U.S.C.
6317(b). Therefore, the effective date of
any new energy conservation standards
for these products will be February
2015. DOE calculated the LCC for all
end users assuming that each one would
purchase a new piece of equipment in
the year the standard takes effect.
G. National Impact Analysis—National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
Analysis
1. General
DOE’s National Impact Analysis (NIA)
assesses the national energy savings, as
well as the national Net Present Value
(NPV) of total consumer costs and
savings, expected to result from new
standards at specific efficiency levels.
DOE applied the NIA spreadsheet to
perform calculations of energy savings
and NPV, using the annual energy
consumption and total installed cost
data from the LCC analysis. DOE
forecasted the energy savings, energy
cost savings, equipment costs, and NPV
for each equipment class from 2015 to
2045. The forecasts provide annual and
cumulative values for all four
parameters. In addition, DOE
incorporated into its NIA spreadsheet
the capability to analyze the sensitivity
of the results to forecasted energy prices
and equipment efficiency trends. Table
IV.17 summarizes the approach and
data DOE used to derive the inputs to
the NES and NPV analyses for the
NOPR. It also summarizes the changes
DOE made in this analysis for today’s
final rule. These changes are described
in the following sections, and more
details are available in chapter 11 of the
final rule TSD.
TABLE IV.17—APPROACH AND DATA USED TO DERIVE THE INPUTS TO THE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NPV
ANALYSES
Inputs
2009 NOPR description
Changes for the final rule
Shipments ............................
Annual shipments from Shipments Model. Shipments
inelastic to changes in motor price. Two CSIR–CSCR
cross-elasticity cases.
Space Constraints ................
Assumed 20% of motors in OEM applications face
space constraints.
2015 ................................................................................
Efficiency distribution determined by the number of currently available models meeting the efficiency requirements of each TSL.
Roll-up scenario. Efficiency distribution held constant
over forecast period.
Annual weighted-average values as a function of efficiency distribution.
Annual weighted-average values as a function of efficiency distribution.
Annual weighted-average values a function of the annual energy consumption per unit and energy prices.
None ................................................................................
Updated shipments drivers to AEO 2010 for reference
case. Total shipments elasticity changed from 0 to
¥0.25. Single cross-elasticity case in which market
shares are fixed beginning in 2015.
No change in reference case; analyzed 62% and 95%
sensitivity cases.
No change.
Efficiency distribution updated to reflect changes in engineering analysis, including the additional polyphase
motor design
No change.
Effective Date of Standard ...
Base-Case Forecasted Efficiencies.
Standards-Case Forecasted
Efficiencies.
Annual Energy Consumption
per Unit.
Total Installed Cost per Unit
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Energy Cost per Unit ...........
Repair Cost and Maintenance Cost per Unit.
Escalation of Energy Prices
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Energy Prices: AEO 2009 April Release forecasts for
the Reference Case. AEO 2009 April Release does
not provide High-Price and Low-Price forecasts; used
AEO 2009 March Release High-Price and Low-Price
forecasts to estimate high- and low-growth price
trends.
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Updated to account for correlation between average
energy use and motor age.
No change.
No change.
No change.
Updated to AEO 2010 Early Release forecasts for the
Reference Case. High-Price and Low-Price forecasts
created using ratios of AEO 2009 March release
High- and Low-Price forecasts to the AEO 2009
March Reference Case.
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10903
TABLE IV.17—APPROACH AND DATA USED TO DERIVE THE INPUTS TO THE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NPV
ANALYSES—Continued
Inputs
2009 NOPR description
Energy Site-to-Source Conversion.
Conversion varies yearly and is generated by DOE/
EIA’s NEMS program (a time-series conversion factor; includes electric generation, transmission, and
distribution losses).
Determined but found not to be significant .....................
No change.
3% and 7% real ..............................................................
Future expenses discounted to year 2009 .....................
No change.
Future expenses discounted to year 2010.
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Effect of Standards on Energy Prices.
Discount Rate ......................
Present Year ........................
2. Shipments
The shipments portion of the NIA
spreadsheet is a shipments model based
on macroeconomic drivers for small
electric motor shipments. In the NOPR,
DOE estimated that shipments to the
industrial sector are proportional to the
manufacturing output, shipments to the
commercial sector are proportional to
commercial floor-space, and shipments
to the residential sector are proportional
to the number of households. DOE used
the AEO 2009 April Release to forecast
these three drivers. For today’s final
rule, DOE has updated the drivers in the
reference case to the AEO 2010 Early
Release.
In the NOPR, DOE examined three
alternate shipments scenarios. Two of
these scenarios were based on the AEO
2009 March Release High-Growth and
Low-Growth cases, while the third was
a ‘‘falling market share’’ case, in which
forecast shipments remain constant at
their 2008 levels independent of
economic growth. The NEEA/NPCC
commented that DOE should retain the
falling market share case because of
uncertainties regarding the size of the
future demand for small motors covered
by this rule, as well as the current
economic climate. NEEA/NPCC added
that DOE should give additional weight
to this scenario when making its policy
decision (NEEA, No. 27 at p. 10). These
shipments scenarios are presented in
Chapter 9 of the TSD.
In its analysis for the NOPR, DOE
assumed that customers would not
respond to standards by changing to
enclosed motors, due to different
ventilation requirements, and analyzed
two different elasticities to enclosed
motors, ¥0.25 and ¥0.5, as
sensitivities. Several comments
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20.4 at pp. 176–77; NEEA/NPCC,
No. 27 at pp. 5–6; NEMA, No. 24 at p.
19), pointed out that if, as a result of
standards, open-construction motors
become more expensive than enclosed
motors, customers may choose to
purchase enclosed motors. DOE’s
analysis indicates that enclosed small
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Changes for the final rule
No change.
electric motors are, on average, 18percent more expensive than open
motors. For today’s final rule, DOE has
changed its reference scenario to the
¥0.25 elasticity scenario for both
polyphase and capacitor-start motors.
As a result, DOE estimates that,
depending on the TSL selected, up to 12
percent of the capacitor-start motor
market might migrate to enclosed
motors; however, today’s rule would
result in a reduction of less than 1
percent for the capacitor-start motor
market. DOE has retained the inelastic
and ¥0.5 elasticity scenarios as
sensitivities.
For the NOPR, DOE developed a
cross-elasticity model to forecast the
impact of standards on the relative
market shares of CSIR and CSCR motors
within each combination on motor
horsepower and number of poles. DOE
used this model to develop two
reference cases for the NIA analysis.
One case assumed that the market share
shift described by the model would be
complete by 2015, the date by which
manufacturers must comply with the
standard, while the other case arbitrarily
assumed that the transition would begin
in 2015 and be complete by 2025. At the
December 17, 2009, Public Meeting,
WEG Electric commented that their
engineers had examined motor designs
necessary to meet the CSIR and CSCR
standard levels proposed in the NOPR.
Their engineers concluded that motors
meeting these efficiencies were
manufacturable, but that the designs
would include a run capacitor (making
them all CSCR motors) that might
present another issue for space
constrained applications. (WEG, Public
Meeting Transcript No. 20.4 at pp. 185–
86)
When examining the cross-elasticity
between CSIR and CSCR motors, DOE
built a demand-based model that
assumed that manufacturers would
produce the products demanded by the
modeled motor customer behavior. This
model has significant uncertainty
because of the difficulty in predicting
the extent and timeframe of the market
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response to standards and an absence of
data on changes in the small electric
motor market. However, in view of
WEG’s comment, DOE has placed
greater emphasis on the influence of
decisions made by manufacturers on
market share. In particular, in cases
where DOE’s model predicts that the
market will result in a complete or
nearly complete shift from CSIR to
CSCR motors, DOE expects that the
market share shift will take place prior
to the introduction of standards in 2015
because manufacturers will change their
production by that date. Therefore, for
today’s final rule, DOE has decided to
use the scenario in which the market
share shift is complete by 2015 as its
single reference case for the shipments
model.
NEMA disagreed with DOE’s
statement that the standard levels
proposed in the NOPR would ‘‘maintain
a supply of both categories of motors
(CSIR and CSCR) in the single-phase
motor market,’’ especially since DOE
was estimating that the purchase price
of a CSIR motor would increase
dramatically over that of the baseline
motor. DOE wishes to clarify that the
NOPR analysis predicted that nearly all,
but not the entire, CSIR market would
migrate to CSCR motors under the
proposed standard level, TSL 7. DOE’s
elasticity model for capacitor-start
motors incorporates both elasticity to
products not covered by today’s final
rule (enclosed motors) and crosselasticity between CSIR and CSCR
motors. DOE expects that the openconstruction CSIR motor market will
migrate to open CSCR motors, rather
than enclosed CSIR motors, because
enclosed CSIR motors are only less
expensive than open CSCR motors in
the case of relatively inefficient
enclosed CSIR motors.
Chapter 9 of the TSD describes the
shipments and elasticity models and
their results in detail.
3. Space Constraints
As discussed above in Section F, DOE
retained its assumption that 20-percent
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of the small motors are installed in
applications that cannot accommodate
any size increases. DOE has added 2percent to the OEM markups in its
reference case to account for estimated
increases in OEM costs to redesign their
products to accommodate larger, more
efficient motors, or to purchase a
stockpile of replacement motors of the
correct size. In addition, in response to
the survey results presented by NEMA,
DOE has analyzed the impact of
increasing the space-constrained
fraction from 20 percent to 62 percent
and to 95 percent of all motors in a pair
of sensitivity case (the additional 2
percent markup is not included in these
two scenarios). These sensitivity cases
have little impact on the national
impacts for capacitor-start motors
because at the capacitor-start efficiency
levels in today’s rule, DOE estimates
that 97 percent of the CSIR market will
migrate to CSCR motors assuming only
20 percent of the market is spaceconstrained. Therefore, increasing the
assumption of the fraction of spaceconstrained CSIR motors to 95-percent
only affects the 3-percent of the CSIR
market that had not already migrated to
CSCR motors under DOE’s reference
case, and has little effect on the
estimates of national energy savings.
Appendices 9A and 10A of the TSD
present the results of this and other
sensitivity cases in more detail.
4. Base-Case and Standards-Case
Efficiency Distributions
In its analysis for the NOPR, DOE
developed base-case and standards-case
efficiency distributions based on the
distribution of currently available
models for which motor catalogs list
efficiency. In preparing today’s final
rule, DOE developed new scaling
relationships governing the relationship
between the efficiency of each product
class to the efficiency of the
representative product class for its
motor category. These changes resulted
in some motor models that met the
criteria for one TSL in the NOPR
analysis also meeting the criteria for a
different TSL in the analysis for today’s
rule. The resulting base-case efficiency
distributions are shown in Table IV.18
DOE’s use of a roll-up method to
determine the efficiency in the
standards-cases is unchanged from the
NOPR to the final rule analysis.
TABLE IV.18—BASE CASE EFFICIENCY MARKET SHARES BY MOTOR TYPE
Motor type
Base Case Market Share (%) by Efficiency Level
Baseline
Polyphase ..................................................................................
EL 1
EL 2
EL 3
EL 4
EL 4b
EL 5
EL 6
EL 7
6
13
7
12
5
3
0
0
EL 1
EL 2
EL 3
EL 4
EL 5
EL 6
EL 7
EL 8
30
33
13
4
15
11
2
11
0
0
0
4
0
0
NA
0
54
Baseline
CSIR ...........................................................................................
CSCR .........................................................................................
40
37
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5. Annual Energy Consumption per Unit
In the analysis conducted for the
NOPR, DOE developed a model for
motor lifetime that incorporates a
correlation between annual hours of
motor operation and the lifetime of the
motor. This correlation was
incorporated into the life-cycle cost
analysis, which provides average energy
use values for the NIA. In the analysis
developed for today’s final rule, DOE
added a correction factor related to this
correlation to its NIA model. This
correction factor accounts for the higher
removal rate of motors with higher
annual energy usage levels when
compared to motors with lower annual
energy usage levels. This relationship is
reflected in DOE’s lifetime model.
conducting the analysis with different
discount rates, because small businesses
do not have the same access to capital
as larger businesses. DOE estimated that
for businesses purchasing small electric
motors, the average discount rate for
small companies is 4.2 percent higher
than the industry average. Due to the
higher costs of conducting business, as
evidenced by their higher discount
rates, the benefits of small electric motor
standards for small businesses are
estimated to be slightly lower than for
the general population of small electric
motor owners.
More details on the consumer
subgroup analysis can be found in
chapter 12 of the final rule TSD.
H. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
For the NOPR and today’s final rule,
DOE analyzed the potential effects of
small electric motor standards on two
subgroups: (1) Customers with spaceconstrained applications, and (2) small
businesses. For customers with spaceconstrained applications, DOE used the
price and energy use estimates
developed for space-constrained designs
from the engineering analysis to
conduct its life-cycle cost analysis. For
small businesses, DOE analyzed the
potential impacts of standards by
DOE conducted a manufacturer
impact analysis (MIA) to estimate the
financial impact of new energy
conservation standards on small electric
motors manufacturers, and to calculate
the impact of such standards on
domestic manufacturing employment
and capacity. The MIA has both
quantitative and qualitative aspects. The
quantitative part of the MIA primarily
relies on the GRIM—an industry-cashflow model customized for this
rulemaking. The GRIM inputs are data
characterizing the industry cost
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I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
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structure, investments, shipments, and
revenues. The key output is the industry
net present value (INPV). Different sets
of assumptions (scenarios) produce
different results. The qualitative part of
the MIA addresses factors such as
equipment characteristics, market and
equipment trends, as well as an
assessment of the impacts of standards
on subgroups of manufacturers. DOE
outlined its methodology for the MIA in
the NOPR. 74 FR 61442–46. The
complete MIA for the NOPR is
presented in chapter 12 of the NOPR
TSD.
For today’s final rule, DOE updated
the MIA to reflect changes in the
outputs of two other key DOE analyses,
which feed into the GRIM. In the
Engineering Analysis, DOE updated
manufacturer production costs (MPCs)
and inflated them to 2009$ from 2008$
using the producer price index (PPI). In
the NIA, DOE updated its shipment
forecasts and efficiency distributions. In
turn, DOE updated the GRIM for these
new estimates. DOE also inflated its
capital and equipment conversion costs
to 2009$ from 2008$ using the PPI for
Motor and Generator Manufacturing
(North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) 335312). Based on
these changes, DOE used the GRIM to
revise the MIA results from the NOPR.
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For direct employment calculations,
DOE revised the GRIM to include the
U.S. Census information that was
revised for 2007.
The following sections discuss
interested parties comments on the
NOPR MIA. In general, the format is as
follows: DOE provides background on
an issue that was raised by interested
parties, summarizes the interested
parties’ comment, and discusses
whether and how DOE modified its
analysis in light of the comments.
1. Capital Conversion and Equipment
Conversion Costs
For the NOPR, DOE estimated capital
conversion costs for a typical
manufacturer using estimates provided
by manufacturers and information
provided by industry experts. DOE
estimated the tooling cost for each
separate design at each incremental
efficiency level. In addition to these
capital expenditures, DOE also
estimated equipment conversion
expenses such as research and
development, testing, and product
literature development associated with
new energy conservation standards.
Because DOE did not receive specific
feedback from all manufacturers in the
industry, DOE then scaled these costs
from a typical manufacturer to account
for the entire industry where
appropriate.
More specifically, DOE estimated the
tooling costs for: (1) Total number of
laminations over baseline designs; (2)
grade of steel including the use of
premium electrical steels; (3) increases
in stack length; (4) necessary rewiring;
(5) replacement of end rings; and (6)
rotor redesigns to use copper (if
applicable). For rotor redesigns to use
copper, DOE estimated the costs to
purchase new presses, new end rings,
and additional tooling. For changes to
the grade of steel, DOE estimated the
costs for punch press dyes. For
increases in stack length, DOE estimated
the costs of switching more production
equipment to accommodate a higher
volume of larger sized small electric
motors. For necessary rewiring, DOE
estimates the cost of crimp tools. For
replacement of end rings, DOE
estimated the tooling changes for
different dimensional changes to the
end rings. For increases in laminations,
DOE estimated the purchase of presses
and tooling for winding machinery.
In written comments, NEMA stated
that the capital conversion costs DOE
assumed in the NOPR represent only 25to 30-percent of the capital investments
required by manufacturers at the
proposed level for CSCR and CSIR.
Specifically, NEMA argued that DOE
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did not account for progressive lam
dies, new winding retooling, and other
equipment conversion costs (e.g.,
engineering time, and manufacture and
customer agency approvals). (NEMA,
No. 24 at p.18) Emerson and A.O. Smith
added that such investments needed to
reach the proposed standards could
cause manufacturers to exit the small
electric motors market. (Emerson, No.
28 at p. 1; A.O. Smith, No. 27 at p. 2)
As discussed above, in the NOPR and
in today’s final rule, DOE accounts for
lam dies, new winding retooling and
other capital investments at the TSLs
that require such tooling. DOE also
notes that equipment conversion costs
associated with R&D, testing, and other
non-capital expenses are included in its
equipment conversion costs
assumptions. However, in part because
the proposed TSL did not require
copper rotors or premium electric steel
for the CSCR or polyphase markets, DOE
cannot reconcile its investment totals at
TSL 7 for CSCR and CSIR with the $150
million to $180 million range implied
by NEMA’s comment. However, in
response to other comments, discussed
immediately below, DOE has modified
its approach to calculating the
investments required of a typical
manufacturer producing space
constrained and non-space constrained
motors.
In the NOPR, DOE examined the
complete tooling requirements
necessary for both space-constrained
and non-space constrained designs.
That is, DOE first calculated tooling
costs assuming shipments were 100percent space constrained, then
calculated tooling costs assuming
shipments were 100-percent non-space
constrained. Next, DOE calculated the
overall tooling costs by weighting these
values by the fraction of shipments
dedicated to space-constrained and nonspace-constrained applications as
forecast in the shipments model (20percent and 80-percent, respectively).
Emerson and NEMA commented that
the proposed TSLs require the use of
different materials for electrical steel
and rotors for different types of motors,
which will lead to high capital costs.
(Emerson, No. 28 at p. 1; NEMA, No. 24
at p. 18). Baldor Electric commented
that manufacturers would lose
economies of scope at the proposed
TSLs because they would not be able to
standardize along one type of steel for
different classes of motors. Combined
with the high capital costs, particularly
for CSIR, this lack of standardization
may lead manufacturers to choose to
exit portions of the market. (Baldor
Electric, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
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20.4 at pp. 246–47; Emerson, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 248)
For today’s final rule, DOE modified
its calculation of investments based on
changes to the shipments forecasts
related to the split between spaceconstrained and non-space constrained
motors. For many manufacturers, it will
not be possible to invest in tooling
equipment for space constrained and
non-space-constrained motors in a
manner that is proportional to the
relative market share of the two types of
motors. Particularly given the
uncertainty with regard to the future
market demand and the resulting
product mix, DOE believes it is more
appropriate to look at the specific
investment needs of a typical
manufacturer at each TSL for both space
constrained and non-space constrained
investments for each motor design. For
many design options, this leads to
investments that are additive—not
weighted by shipment share—across
space-constrained and non-space
constrained motors. Furthermore, DOE
does not assume economies of scope in
its assumptions regarding capital
investments among the three classes of
motors. That is, DOE assumed
investment in each class independently
and assumed they were additive when
appropriate across the classes. To be
clear, DOE is not modifying the
shipments scenarios from the NIA in
this scenario. It is modifying the capital
investment assumptions to more
completely capture the business
decisions firms will likely have to make.
As mentioned in the comments
referenced above, the business case for
making the large capital investments
required for certain types of motors
becomes less compelling as shipment
volumes decrease at higher TSLs
(including the TSL established in
today’s final rule). DOE agrees with
Emerson and A.O. Smith that some
manufacturers are likely to exit this
portion of their market, as is reflected by
the shipments analysis, which shows a
dramatic migration away from CSIR
motors. For space-constrained motors
within the CSIR class DOE projects no
shipments after standards take effect. To
capture this dynamic, at certain TSLs
DOE calculated investments to include
those associated with the CSCR line and
the CSIR non-space constrained line.
Without forecasting a significant volume
of space-constrained CSIR shipments, it
would be inappropriate to assume all
manufacturers would invest in the
premium electrical steel and copper
technologies required to meet the
standard level. For further details of the
investments, see chapter 12 of the TSD
and or section IV.I of today’s notice.
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In written comment, Emerson further
argues that the exit of the market by
certain manufacturers in response to
amended standards would reduce
competition and domestic employment.
(Emerson, No. 28 at p. 1)
As previously discussed, DOE
believes that some manufacturers could
exit the small electric motors market
segment covered by this rule in
response to amended standards.
However, it should be noted that
covered small electric motors comprise
only a small portion of overall motor
sales for these companies. At the
efficiency levels established by this final
rule, DOE’s analysis and manufacturer
interviews indicated that the majority of
manufacturers would likely remain in
the small electric motors market
following the implementation of
amended standards. Additionally, DOE
learned that a number of covered motors
are already manufactured overseas and
that foreign competition continues to
make inroads into the covered motors
segment. As for a potential reduction in
domestic employment, DOE’s analysis
indicates that even with the potential
departure by some manufacturers from
segments of the small electric motors
market, overall direct employment will
remain relatively constant due to the
increased labor content of more efficient
motors.
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2. Manufacturer Selling Prices
In the NOPR, DOE calculated
weighted manufacturer selling prices
(MSPs) based on a shipments split of 20percent space-constrained and 80percent non-space constrained motors.
However, the shipments analysis in
today’s final rule models a mix of spaceconstrained and non-space constrained
motors that varies by TSL. As such, DOE
has updated its MSPs in the GRIM using
the same shipment weights used in the
shipments analysis at each TSL. For
further information on the shipment
analysis, see chapter 9 of the TSD.
3. Markup Scenarios
In the NOPR, DOE analyzed two
markup scenarios in the MIA: the
preservation-of-return-on-investedcapital scenario and the preservation-ofoperating-profits scenario. These
scenarios reflected the upper and lower
bounds of industry profitability,
respectively. In written comments,
NEMA contended that DOE had
inappropriately discounted the
likelihood of the lower-bound scenario
occurring when it stated its belief that
design changes necessary for TSL 5
would not force all manufacturers to
significantly redesign all of their
polyphase small electric motors and
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production processes. (NEMA, No. 24 at
p. 16)
In response, DOE first clarifies that it
did not and is not assigning
probabilities to the preservation of
operating profit scenario or the
preservation of return on invested
capital scenario. The two markup
scenarios are meant to estimate the
range of potential impacts. Second, in
the NOPR, and for this final rule, DOE
accounted for equal investments in the
GRIM under both the lower and upper
bound profitability scenarios. Therefore,
changes in markup assumptions—not
changes in investments—drive the
profitability difference between the
scenarios. For example, in this final rule
DOE assumes industry wide capital
conversion investments for TSL 5 of
approximately $7.1 million for
polyphase small motors in each markup
scenario. Thus, the likelihood of either
scenario occurring with respect to the
other is independent of the investment
level assumed in the GRIM.
NEMA further argued that in
discounting the likelihood of the lowerbound profitability scenario, DOE
ignored cost increases and equipment
investments associated with specialty
steels and copper rotors necessary for
polyphase motors to meet TSL 5.
(NEMA, No. 24 at p. 16).
DOE disagrees with NEMA’s
suggestion that TSL 5 requires copper
rotors and premium electrical steels
(such as Hiperco) for polyphase motor
designs. DOE continues to believe, as
discussed in the Engineering Analysis,
that both space-constrained and nonspace constrained motors can achieve
TSL 5 through the use of additional
laminations. As discussed above, DOE
included the attendant costs of the
additional lams, steel-grade lam dies,
end ring investment for both space
constrained and non-space constrained
motors, and a crimping tool. No
investments for copper rotors design
were assumed at TSL 5 for polyphase
motors. NEMA ostensibly agreed that
the proposed TSL did not require
copper rotors when it commented that
the ‘‘proposed standards for polyphase
and CSCR small electric motors are
based on the use of cast aluminum
rotors.’’ (NEMA, No. 24 at p. 18)
Baldor and NEMA stated that the
proposed levels of efficiency in the
NOPR are based on the assumption that
manufacturers must use three different
types of electrical steel including
24M19, 29M15, and Hiperco 50.
According to NEMA, each type of
electrical steel requires different
methods for processing the rolled steel
into laminations acceptable for use in
electric motors. NEMA further adds that
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to remain competitive, manufacturers
must minimize the number of different
types of materials and processes used in
a manufacturing facility and suggested
that DOE adopt a standard level that is
achievable with the same electrical steel
for all motor categories. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 246–
47; NEMA, No. 24 at p. 17.
In the NOPR, DOE predicted that
manufacturers would achieve the
proposed efficiency levels with three
types of steels including 24M19, 29M15,
and Hiperco 50. During manufacturer
interviews, DOE requested information
on the type of processes needed to
achieve each efficiency level, as well as
the costs associated with each process.
In regard to types of steel used and the
cost of switching from one steel process
to another, all interviewed
manufacturers reported the use of
additional lamination dies to
accommodate the different thickness of
steel. Accordingly, DOE included
additional lamination dies per
manufacturer in its estimates whenever
a change of steel grade was applicable,
as described in chapter 12 of the TSD.
The cost per die was derived based on
manufacturer’s estimates and
information provide by industry
experts. See chapter 12 of the TSD for
additional details on each type of
investment at each efficiency level
including all design options analyzed.
DOE acknowledges that manufacturers
in general, regardless of industry,
reduce the number of manufacturing
processes to lower costs and thus
increase margins. For today’s amended
standards, DOE does not prescribe
designs nor how manufacturers achieve
each efficiency level. Because DOE
accounts for all the relevant costs
associated with using the various steel
types in both the engineering analysis
and MIA, it believes it accurately
captures the potential costs to
manufacturers in using different steel
grades. Therefore, DOE believes that
potential burden on manufacturers has
been accounted for in today’s final rule.
In response to the NOPR, NEMA
commented that manufacturers are not
aware of any other pathways to
achieving the proposed efficiencies for
space constrained CSIR motors but the
ones analyzed in this rulemaking.
NEMA argued that because there are no
other pathways to achieving the
proposed efficiencies, DOE is dictating
that manufacturers use different
electrical steels and different materials
for the rotor construction in order to
meet the proposed efficiencies for the
three motor types. (NEMA, No. 24 at p.
16).
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DOE acknowledges that TSL 7 reflects
the max-tech efficiency levels for CSIR;
as such, DOE estimates manufacturers
may have to employ both copper rotors
and premium electrical steels to achieve
that level. In the engineering analysis,
which subsequently carries over to the
MIA, DOE models a pathway for spaceconstrained and non-space constrained
application motors with the use of these
technologies. However, in setting new
standards for small electric motors, as
described in today’s notice, DOE selects
efficiency levels for each motor category
and does not prescribe designs.
4. Premium Electrical Steels
In response to the NOPR, Regal-Beloit
and NEMA argue that DOE proposed an
efficiency level for motors that would
force manufacturers to utilize specific
electrical steels that are in scarce
supply. NEMA further argues that DOE
should not establish standards that
require manufacturers to use materials
that are supply constrained. NEMA
stated that a market analysis for the
scarce materials is needed to prove
otherwise. (Regal-Beloit, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 245–46;
NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 17–18). Similarly,
NEMA asked DOE to consider any
spillover effects on the supply of steel
for medium electric motors. (NEMA, No.
24 at p.18)
DOE acknowledges the concern that
Hiperco may be supply constrained in
the short run should manufacturers
pursue that design option. As such, to
investigate these steel concerns, DOE
contacted Hiperco 50 steel and other
premium electrical steel suppliers and
used steel manufacturer’s annual reports
to examine past shipment volumes of
premium steels. DOE then compared
estimated shipments of these steel to
volumes that would be necessary for
motors if should the base case mix of
space constrained and non space
constrained persist at all TSLs. Based on
that analysis, DOE estimates that the
entire small electric motor industry
would need approximately 1.3 million
pounds of premium steels (such as
Hiperco) in 2015 for the level
established by this rule. For the steel
manufacturer that had available annual
reports, the estimated pounds of
premium steels needed by the motor
manufacturers constitutes less than one
percent of total steel shipments for
2008. How much of that volume reflects
premium steels is not publically
available. However, annual reports for
the publicly traded manufacturer of
premium steels suggest that shipments
of these steels have decreased by close
to 20 percent from the previous year,
suggesting this manufacturer has over
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capacity and the ability to meet the
possible increase in demand of
premium steels. Given the time lag for
the market to prepare for the
compliance date of the standard and the
low volumes of motors that may require
premium steel, DOE believes that the
proposed standard level will not
threaten the supply of the steel, even if
manufacturers decide to pursue this
option. DOE’s analysis does not forecast
shipments of motors that require
premium steel and, as a result, DOE
does not believe that, based on the
available data, there will be a significant
impact (‘‘spillover’’) on the medium
motor market due to higher demand of
the material in the small motor market.
NEMA stated that the proposed
efficiency level mandates the use of
copper rotor casting technology along
with aluminum rotor casting technology
in the same manufacturing facilities.
NEMA argued that copper rotor casting
technology is in its infancy and is not
a fully developed process that can be
adapted in all present facilities where
small electric motors are built.
Additionally, NEMA and A.O. Smith are
concerned that copper rotor casting
technology has significant safety issues
related to the high temperatures needed
for the process. According to NEMA,
manufacturers may be required to use a
few outside companies that may not
have sufficient capacity to meet all of
the copper rotor volume required to
meet the needs for all of the CSIR small
electric motors. Additionally, NEMA
argues that standards must be based on
the use of aluminum rotors only. (A.O.
Smith, No. 26 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 24 at
p. 18)
DOE acknowledges manufacturers’
concerns related to the processes for
die-casting copper rotors. In its analysis,
DOE accounted for the increased capital
requirements as they would likely occur
depending on the efficiency level and
motor type at issue. As stated in the
NOPR, the use of copper rotors could
lead manufacturers to outsource their
die-casting processes, as indicated by
NEMA in its comments. (74 FR 61467–
68). Ultimately, this is a business
decision. In its engineering analysis for
this rulemaking, DOE included a copper
rotor design at efficiency level 6 or
above for polyphase motors, efficiency
level 5 or above for CSIR motors, and
efficiency level 4 or above for CSCR
motors. The inclusion of copper rotor
designs at each efficiency level varies
depending on the necessary efficiency
and space constraints. However, DOE
reiterates that different manufacturers
will not necessarily employ the same
design options to make their motors
achieve higher efficiency levels where
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10907
DOE estimates copper rotors may be
used, with the exception of the maxtech efficiency levels. In fact, for the
NOPR and today’s final rule, DOE has
analyzed motors up to efficiency level 5
for CSIR motors and efficiency level 6
for CSCR motors that use an aluminum
die-cast rotor.
J. Employment Impact Analysis
DOE considers employment impacts
in the domestic economy as one factor
in selecting a proposed standard.
Employment impacts include direct and
indirect impacts. Direct employment
impacts are changes in the number of
employees for manufacturers of
equipment subject to standards, their
suppliers, and related service firms. The
MIA addresses these impacts.
Indirect employment impacts from
standards consist of the net jobs created
or eliminated in the national economy,
other than in the manufacturing sector
being regulated, due to: (1) Reduced
spending by end users on energy
(electricity, gas (including liquefied
petroleum gas), and oil); (2) reduced
spending on new energy supply by the
utility industry; (3) increased spending
on the purchase price of new
equipment; and (4) the effects of those
three factors throughout the economy.
DOE expects the net monetary savings
from standards to be redirected to other
forms of economic activity. DOE also
expects these shifts in spending and
economic activity to affect the demand
for labor in the short term, as explained
below.
One method for assessing the possible
effects on the demand for labor of such
shifts in economic activity is to compare
employment statistics in different
economic sectors, which are compiled
and published by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS). The BLS regularly
publishes its estimates of the number of
jobs per million dollars of economic
activity in different sectors of the
economy, as well as the jobs created
elsewhere in the economy by this same
economic activity. Data from BLS
indicate that expenditures in the utility
sector generally create fewer jobs (both
directly and indirectly) than
expenditures in other sectors of the
economy. There are many reasons for
these differences, including wage
differences and the fact that the utility
sector is more capital intensive and less
labor intensive than other sectors. (See
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Multipliers: A User Handbook for the
Regional Input-Output Modeling System
(RIMS II), Washington, DC, U.S.
Department of Commerce, 1992.)
Efficiency standards have the effect of
reducing consumer utility bills. Because
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reduced consumer expenditures for
energy likely lead to increased
expenditures in other sectors of the
economy, the general effect of efficiency
standards is to shift economic activity
from a less labor-intensive sector (i.e.,
the utility sector) to more laborintensive sectors (e.g., the retail and
manufacturing sectors). Thus, based on
the BLS data alone, DOE believes net
national employment will increase due
to shifts in economic activity resulting
from standards for small electric motors.
In developing the NOPR, DOE
estimated indirect national employment
impacts using an input/output model of
the U.S. economy called Impact of
Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET).16
ImSET is a special-purpose version of
the ‘‘U.S. Benchmark National InputOutput’’ (I–O) model designed to
estimate the national employment and
income effects of energy-saving
technologies. The ImSET software
includes a computer-based I–O model
with structural coefficients to
characterize economic flows among 188
sectors most relevant to industrial,
commercial, and residential building
energy use. For today’s final rule, DOE
has made no change to its method for
estimating employment impacts. For
further details, see chapter 15 of the
final rule TSD.
K. Utility Impact Analysis
The utility impact analysis estimates
the change in the forecasted power
generation capacity for the Nation that
would be expected to result from
adoption of new standards. For the
NOPR and today’s final rule, DOE
calculated this change using the NEMS–
BT computer model. NEMS–BT models
certain policy scenarios such as the
effect of reduced energy consumption
by fuel type. The analysis output
provides a forecast for the needed
generation capacities at each TSL. While
DOE was able to use the forecasts from
the AEO 2010 Early Release for energy
prices and macroeconomic indicators,
the NEMS–BT model corresponding to
this case is not yet available. The
estimated net benefit of the standard in
today’s final rule is the difference
between the forecasted generation
capacities by NEMS–BT and the AEO
2009 April Release Reference Case. DOE
obtained the energy savings inputs
associated with efficiency
improvements to small electric motors
from the NIA. These inputs reflect the
effects of both fuel (natural gas) and
electricity consumption savings.
16 More information regarding ImSET is available
online at: https://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/
external/technical_reports/PNNL-15273.pdf.
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Chapter 14 of the final rule TSD
presents results of the utility impact
analysis.
NEEA/NPCC claimed that only a
small fraction of the total costs of
avoided generation are currently
counted in any rulemaking. They note
that DOE uses the NEMS–BT model to
calculate the avoided generation
facilities produced by a standard and
that the cost of construction and
operation of these plants are rolled into
average rates that all electricity
consumers must pay, not just those
purchasing the product in question. As
a result, they believe that the NPV
difference in the value of total
electricity sales between the NEMS–BT
forecasts with and without the
standards may serve as a reasonable
proxy for the economic value to all
electricity consumers of the proposed
standards. The difference value of total
retail electricity sales is necessary to
capture all of the cost of the avoided
generation, since as noted above, users
of small general purpose motors
impacted by the standard will pay only
a portion of those cost at embedded
rates. (NEEA/NPPC, No. 27, p. 7–8)
DOE investigated the possibility of
estimating the impact of specific
standard levels on electricity prices in
its rulemaking for general service
fluorescent lamps and incandescent
reflector lamps. (See U.S. Department of
Energy—Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy: Energy Conservation
Standards for General Service
Fluorescent Lamps and Incandescent
Reflector Lamps; Proposed Rule, 74 FR
16920, 16978–979 (April 13, 2009).) It
concluded that caution is warranted in
reporting impacts of appliance
standards on electricity prices due to
the complexity of the power industry
(including the variety of utility
regulation in the U.S.) and the relatively
small impact of equipment efficiency
standards on demand. In addition,
electricity price reductions cannot be
viewed as equivalent to societal benefits
because part of the price reductions
result from transfers from producers to
consumers. The electric power industry
is a complex mix of fuel suppliers,
producers, and distributors. While the
distribution of electricity is regulated
everywhere, its institutional structure
varies, and upstream components are
complex. Because of the difficulty in
accurately estimating electricity price
impacts, and the uncertainty with
respect to transfers from producers to
consumers, DOE did not estimate the
value of potentially reduced electricity
costs for all consumers associated with
standards for small electric motors.
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L. Environmental Assessment
Pursuant to the National
Environmental Policy Act of 1969
(NEPA) (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI), DOE
prepared a draft environmental
assessment (EA) of the potential impacts
of the standards for small electric
motors in today’s final rule, which it has
included as chapter 15 of the TSD. DOE
found that the environmental effects
associated with the standards for small
electric motors were not significant.
Therefore, DOE is issuing a Finding of
No Significant Impact (FONSI),
pursuant to NEPA, the regulations of the
Council on Environmental Quality (40
CFR parts 1500–1508), and DOE’s
regulations for compliance with NEPA
(10 CFR part 1021). The FONSI is
available in the docket for this
rulemaking.
In the EA, DOE estimated the
reduction in power sector emissions of
CO2, NOX, and Hg using the NEMS–BT
computer model. In the EA, NEMS–BT
is run similarly to the AEO NEMS,
except that small electric motor energy
use is reduced by the amount of energy
saved (by fuel type) due to the TSLs.
The inputs of national energy savings
come from the NIA analysis; the output
is the forecasted physical emissions.
The estimated net benefit of the
standard in today’s final rule is the
difference between the forecasted
emissions by NEMS–BT at each TSL
and the AEO 2009 April Early Release
Reference Case. NEMS–BT tracks CO2
emissions using a detailed module that
provides results with broad coverage of
all sectors and inclusion of interactive
effects.
DOE has determined that sulfur
dioxide (SO2) emissions from affected
Electric Generating Units (EGUs) are
subject to nationwide and regional
emissions cap and trading programs that
create uncertainty about the impact of
energy conservation standards on SO2
emissions. Title IV of the Clean Air Act
sets an annual emissions cap on SO2 for
all affected EGUs. SO2 emissions from
28 eastern States and the District of
Columbia (D.C.) are also limited under
the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR,
published in the Federal Register on
May 12, 2005; 70 FR 25162 (May 12,
2005), which creates an allowancebased trading program that will
gradually replace the Title IV program
in those States and D.C. (The recent
legal history surrounding CAIR is
discussed below.) The attainment of the
emissions caps is flexible among EGUs
and is enforced through the use of
emissions allowances and tradable
permits. Energy conservation standards
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could lead EGUs to trade allowances
and increase SO2 emissions that offset
some or all SO2 emissions reductions
attributable to the standard. DOE is not
certain that there will be reduced
overall SO2 emissions from the
standards. The NEMS–BT modeling
system that DOE uses to forecast
emissions reductions currently indicates
that no physical reductions in power
sector emissions would occur for SO2.
The above considerations prevent DOE
from estimating SO2 reductions from
standards at this time.
Even though DOE is not certain that
there will be reduced overall emissions
from the standard, there may be an
economic benefit from reduced demand
for SO2 emission allowances. Electricity
savings from standards decrease the
generation of SO2 emissions from power
production, which can lessen the need
to purchase emissions allowance
credits, and thereby decrease the costs
of complying with regulatory caps on
emissions.
Much like SO2 emissions, NOX
emissions from 28 eastern States and the
District of Columbia (D.C.) are limited
under the CAIR. Although CAIR has
been remanded to EPA by the U.S. Court
of Appeals for the District of Columbia
Circuit (D.C. Circuit), it will remain in
effect until it is replaced by a rule
consistent with the Court’s July 11,
2008, opinion in North Carolina v. EPA.
531 F.3d 896 (D.C. Cir. 2008); see also
North Carolina v. EPA, 550 F.3d 1176
(D.C. Cir. 2008). These court positions
were taken into account in the analysis
conducted for the NOPR and in today’s
final rule. Because all States covered by
CAIR opted to reduce NOX emissions
through participation in cap and trade
programs for electric generating units,
emissions from these sources are capped
across the CAIR region.
In the 28 eastern States and D.C.
where CAIR is in effect, DOE’s forecasts
indicate that no NOX emissions
reductions will occur due to energy
conservation standards because of the
permanent cap. Energy conservation
standards have the potential to produce
an economic impact in the form of
lower prices for NOX emissions
allowances, if their impact on electricity
demand is large enough. However, DOE
has concluded that the standards in
today’s final rule will not have such an
effect because the estimated reduction
in electricity demand in States covered
by the CAIR cap would be too small to
affect allowance prices for NOX under
the CAIR.
New or amended energy conservation
standards would reduce NOX emissions
in those 22 States that are not affected
by the CAIR. DOE used the NEMS–BT
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to forecast emission reductions from the
small electric motor standards in today’s
final rule.
Similar to emissions of SO2 and NOX,
future emissions of Hg would have been
subject to emissions caps. The Clean Air
Mercury Rule (CAMR) would have
permanently capped emissions of
mercury from new and existing coalfired plants in all States beginning in
2010 (70 FR 28606). However, the
CAMR was vacated by the D.C. Circuit
in its decision in New Jersey v.
Environmental Protection Agency, 517 F
3d 574 (D.C. Cir. 2008) Thus, DOE was
able to use the NEMS–BT model to
estimate the changes in Hg emissions
resulting from the proposed rule.
NEMA noted that the TSD for the
NOPR provides a qualitative assessment
of upstream emissions (i.e., emissions
from energy losses during coal and
natural gas production) in addition to
quantifying the emissions at power
plants. NEMA states that if DOE is
making an assessment of upstream
emissions, it should also account for the
emissions related to the construction of
more efficient small electric motors,
such as those related to the mining of
additional raw materials, processing of
the additional materials, transportation
of the additional materials, and the
manufacture of the motor itself. (NEMA,
No. 24 at p. 22)
As noted in the TSD for the NOPR,
DOE developed qualitative estimates of
affects on upstream fuel-cycle emissions
because NEMS–BT does a thorough
accounting only of emissions at the
power plant due to downstream energy
consumption. In other words, NEMS–
BT does not account for upstream
emissions. Therefore, the Environmental
Assessment for today’s final rule reports
only power plant emissions.
When setting performance standards
for industrial equipment, EPCA
prescribes that an energy efficiency
standard be a minimum level of energy
efficiency or maximum allowable
energy use. EPCA defines the term
‘‘energy use’’ within this limited context
for commercial and industrial
equipment as being the quantity of
energy directly consumed by an article
of industrial equipment at the point of
use. See 42 U.S.C. 6311(4). In
ascertaining the appropriate level of
efficiency, DOE must balance seven
criteria to develop a standard that is
economically justified and technically
feasible. While DOE believes that the
majority of the energy and other costs
associated with the manufacturing of
more efficient motors are reflected in its
analysis, some of the costs associated
with certain environmental impacts and
other externalities are not incorporated.
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Even though DOE estimates and
considers the impacts of standards on
the energy and emissions associated
with electricity generation, it does not
specifically assess the energy and
emissions associated with the
manufacturing of more efficient motors
or the manufacturing of the equipment
required to produce and supply energy.
The main reason for not assessing such
indirect costs and benefits is the
absence of a reliable and comprehensive
method of doing so. Such an assessment
would require accounting for a variety
of variables, including the energy
required to build and service the energy
production, generation, and
transmission infrastructure needed to
deliver the energy, as well as accounting
for the energy expended to manufacture
energy-using equipment.
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and
Other Emissions Impacts
As part of the development of this
final rule, DOE considered the estimated
monetary benefits likely to result from
the reduced emissions of CO2 and other
pollutants that are expected to result
from each of the Trial Standard Levels
considered. This section summarizes
the basis for the estimated monetary
values used for each of these emissions
and presents the benefits estimates
considered.
For today’s final rule, DOE is relying
on a new set of values for the social cost
of carbon SCC that were recently
developed by an interagency process. A
summary of the basis for these new
values is provided below, and a more
detailed description of the
methodologies used is provided as an
Annex to Chapter 15 of the Technical
Support Document.
1. Social Cost of Carbon
Under Executive Order 12866,
agencies are required, to the extent
permitted by law, ‘‘to assess both the
costs and the benefits of the intended
regulation and, recognizing that some
costs and benefits are difficult to
quantify, propose or adopt a regulation
only upon a reasoned determination
that the benefits of the intended
regulation justify its costs.’’ The purpose
of the SCC estimates presented here is
to allow agencies to incorporate the
social benefits of reducing CO2
emissions into cost-benefit analyses of
regulatory actions that have small, or
‘‘marginal,’’ impacts on cumulative
global emissions. The estimates are
presented with an acknowledgement of
the many uncertainties involved and
with a clear understanding that they
should be updated over time to reflect
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increasing knowledge of the science and
economics of climate impacts.
The SCC is an estimate of the
monetized damages associated with an
incremental increase in carbon
emissions in a given year. It is intended
to include (but is not limited to) changes
in net agricultural productivity, human
health, property damages from
increased flood risk, and the value of
ecosystem services due to climate
change.
As part of the interagency process that
developed these SCC estimates,
technical experts from numerous
agencies met on a regular basis to
consider public comments, explore the
technical literature in relevant fields,
and discuss key model inputs and
assumptions. The main objective of this
process was to develop a range of SCC
values using a defensible set of input
assumptions grounded in the existing
scientific and economic literatures. In
this way, key uncertainties and model
differences transparently and
consistently inform the range of SCC
estimates used in the rulemaking
process.
The interagency group selected four
SCC values for use in regulatory
analyses. Three values are based on the
average SCC from three integrated
assessment models, at discount rates of
2.5, 3, and 5 percent. The fourth value,
which represents the 95th percentile
SCC estimate across all three models at
a 3 percent discount rate, is included to
represent higher-than-expected impacts
from temperature change further out in
the tails of the SCC distribution.
TABLE IV.19—SOCIAL COST OF CO2, 2010–2050
[In 2007 dollars]
5%
Avg
Discount year
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2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The ‘‘social cost of carbon’’ (SCC) is an
estimate of the monetized damages
associated with an incremental increase
in carbon emissions in a given year. It
is intended to include (but is not limited
to) changes in net agricultural
productivity, human health, property
damages from increased flood risk, and
the value of ecosystem services.
Estimates of the social cost of carbon are
provided in dollars per metric ton of
carbon dioxide.17
When attempting to assess the
incremental economic impacts of carbon
dioxide emissions, the analyst faces a
number of serious challenges. A recent
report from the National Academies of
Science (Hidden Costs of Energy:
Unpriced Consequences of Energy
Production and Use. National
Academies Press. 2009) points out that
any assessment will suffer from
uncertainty, speculation, and lack of
information about (1) future emissions
of greenhouse gases, (2) the effects of
past and future emissions on the climate
system, (3) the impact of changes in
climate on the physical and biological
environment, and (4) the translation of
17 In this document, DOE presents all values of
the SCC as the cost per metric ton of CO2 emissions.
Alternatively, one could report the SCC as the cost
per metric ton of carbon emissions. The multiplier
for translating between mass of CO2 and the mass
of carbon is 3.67 (the molecular weight of CO2
divided by the molecular weight of carbon = 44/12
= 3.67).
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3%
Avg
4.7
5.7
6.8
8.2
9.7
11.2
12.7
14.2
15.7
these environmental impacts into
economic damages. As a result, any
effort to quantify and monetize the
harms associated with climate change
will raise serious questions of science,
economics, and ethics and should be
viewed as provisional.
Despite the serious limits of both
quantification and monetization, SCC
estimates can be useful in estimating the
social benefits of reducing carbon
dioxide emissions. Under Executive
Order 12866, agencies are required, to
the extent permitted by law, ‘‘to assess
both the costs and the benefits of the
intended regulation and, recognizing
that some costs and benefits are difficult
to quantify, propose or adopt a
regulation only upon a reasoned
determination that the benefits of the
intended regulation justify its costs.’’
The purpose of the SCC estimates
presented here is to make it possible for
agencies to incorporate the social
benefits from reducing carbon dioxide
emissions into cost-benefit analyses of
regulatory actions that have small, or
‘‘marginal,’’ impacts on cumulative
global emissions. Most Federal
regulatory actions can be expected to
have marginal impacts on global
emissions.
For such policies, the benefits from
reduced (or costs from increased)
emissions in any future year can be
estimated by multiplying the change in
emissions in that year by the SCC value
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2.5%
Avg
21.4
23.8
26.3
29.6
32.8
36.0
39.2
42.1
44.9
3%
95th
35.1
38.4
41.7
45.9
50.0
54.2
58.4
61.7
65.0
64.9
72.8
80.7
90.4
100.0
109.7
119.3
127.8
136.2
appropriate for that year. The net
present value of the benefits can then be
calculated by multiplying each of these
future benefits by an appropriate
discount factor and summing across all
affected years. This approach assumes
that the marginal damages from
increased emissions are constant for
small departures from the baseline
emissions path, an approximation that
is reasonable for policies that have
effects on emissions that are small
relative to cumulative global carbon
dioxide emissions. For policies that
have a large (non-marginal) impact on
global cumulative emissions, there is a
separate question of whether the SCC is
an appropriate tool for calculating the
benefits of reduced emissions; we do
not attempt to answer that question
here.
An interagency group convened on a
regular basis to consider public
comments, explore the technical
literature in relevant fields, and discuss
key inputs and assumptions in order to
generate SCC estimates. Agencies that
actively participated in the interagency
process include the Environmental
Protection Agency, and the Departments
of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy,
Transportation, and Treasury. This
process was convened by the Council of
Economic Advisers and the Office of
Management and Budget, with active
participation and regular input from the
Council on Environmental Quality,
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National Economic Council, Office of
Energy and Climate Change, and Office
of Science and Technology Policy. The
main objective of this process was to
develop a range of SCC values using a
defensible set of input assumptions that
are grounded in the existing literature.
In this way, key uncertainties and
model differences can more
transparently and consistently inform
the range of SCC estimates used in the
rulemaking process.
The interagency group selected four
SCC estimates for use in regulatory
analyses. For 2010, these estimates are
$5, $21, $35, and $65 (in 2007 dollars).
The first three estimates are based on
the average SCC across models and
socio-economic and emissions scenarios
at the 5, 3, and 2.5 percent discount
rates, respectively. The fourth value is
included to represent the higher-thanexpected impacts from temperature
change further out in the tails of the
SCC distribution. For this purpose, we
use the SCC value for the 95th
percentile at a 3 percent discount rate.
The central value is the average SCC
across models at the 3 percent discount
rate. For purposes of capturing the
uncertainties involved in regulatory
impact analysis, we emphasize the
importance and value of considering the
full range. These SCC estimates also
grow over time. For instance, the central
value increases to $24 per ton of CO2 in
2015 and $26 per ton of CO2 in 2020.
See Appendix A of the Annex to
Chapter 15 of the Technical Support
Document for the full range of annual
SCC estimates from 2010 to 2050.
It is important to emphasize that the
interagency process is committed to
updating these estimates as the science
and economic understanding of climate
change and its impacts on society
improve over time. Specifically, we
have set a preliminary goal of revisiting
the SCC values within two years or at
such time as substantially updated
models become available, and to
continue to support research in this
area. In the meantime, we will continue
to explore the issues raised by this
analysis and consider public comments
as part of the ongoing interagency
process.
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in
Past Regulatory Analyses
To date, economic analyses for
Federal regulations have used a wide
range of values to estimate the benefits
associated with reducing carbon dioxide
emissions. In the final model year 2011
CAFE rule, the Department of
Transportation (DOT) used both a
‘‘domestic’’ SCC value of $2 per ton of
CO2 and a ‘‘global’’ SCC value of $33 per
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ton of CO2 for 2007 emission reductions
(in 2007 dollars), increasing both values
at 2.4 percent per year. It also included
a sensitivity analysis at $80 per ton of
CO2. A domestic SCC value is meant to
reflect the value of damages in the
United States resulting from a unit
change in carbon dioxide emissions,
while a global SCC value is meant to
reflect the value of damages worldwide.
A 2008 regulation proposed by DOT
assumed a domestic SCC value of $7 per
ton CO2 (in 2006 dollars) for 2011
emission reductions (with a range of $0–
$14 for sensitivity analysis), also
increasing at 2.4 percent per year. A
regulation finalized by DOE in October
of 2008 used a domestic SCC range of
$0 to $20 per ton CO2 for 2007 emission
reductions (in 2007 dollars). In addition,
EPA’s 2008 Advance Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking for Greenhouse Gases
identified what it described as ‘‘very
preliminary’’ SCC estimates subject to
revision. EPA’s global mean values were
$68 and $40 per ton CO2 for discount
rates of approximately 2 percent and 3
percent, respectively (in 2006 dollars for
2007 emissions).
In 2009, an interagency process was
initiated to offer a preliminary
assessment of how best to quantify the
benefits from reducing carbon dioxide
emissions. To ensure consistency in
how benefits are evaluated across
agencies, the Administration sought to
develop a transparent and defensible
method, specifically designed for the
rulemaking process, to quantify avoided
climate change damages from reduced
CO2 emissions. The interagency group
did not undertake any original analysis.
Instead, it combined SCC estimates from
the existing literature to use as interim
values until a more comprehensive
analysis could be conducted.
The outcome of the preliminary
assessment by the interagency group
was a set of five interim values: global
SCC estimates for 2007 (in 2006 dollars)
of $55, $33, $19, $10, and $5 per ton of
CO2. The $33 and $5 values represented
model-weighted means of the published
estimates produced from the most
recently available versions of three
integrated assessment models—DICE,
PAGE, and FUND—at approximately 3
and 5 percent discount rates. The $55
and $10 values were derived by
adjusting the published estimates for
uncertainty in the discount rate (using
factors developed by Newell and Pizer
(2003)) at 3 and 5 percent discount
rates, respectively. The $19 value was
chosen as a central value between the $5
and $33 per ton estimates. All of these
values were assumed to increase at 3
percent annually to represent growth in
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incremental damages over time as the
magnitude of climate change increases.
These interim values represent the
first sustained interagency effort within
the U.S. government to develop an SCC
for use in regulatory analysis. The
results of this preliminary effort were
presented in several proposed and final
rules and were offered for public
comment in connection with proposed
rules, including the joint EPA–DOT fuel
economy and CO2 tailpipe emission
proposed rules.
c. Approach and Key Assumptions
Since the release of the interim
values, the interagency group
reconvened on a regular basis to
generate improved SCC estimates
considered for this final rule.
Specifically, the group considered
public comments and further explored
the technical literature in relevant
fields.
It is important to recognize that a
number of key uncertainties remain, and
that current SCC estimates should be
treated as provisional and revisable
since they will evolve with improved
scientific and economic understanding.
The interagency group also recognizes
that the existing models are imperfect
and incomplete. The National Academy
of Science (2009) points out that there
is tension between the goal of producing
quantified estimates of the economic
damages from an incremental ton of
carbon and the limits of existing efforts
to model these effects. There are a
number of concerns and problems that
should be addressed by the research
community, including research
programs housed in many of the
agencies participating in the interagency
process to estimate the SCC.
The U.S. Government will
periodically review and reconsider
estimates of the SCC used for costbenefit analyses to reflect increasing
knowledge of the science and
economics of climate impacts, as well as
improvements in modeling. In this
context, statements recognizing the
limitations of the analysis and calling
for further research take on exceptional
significance. The interagency group
offers the new SCC values with all due
humility about the uncertainties
embedded in them and with a sincere
promise to continue work to improve
them.
In summary, in considering the
potential global benefits resulting from
reduced CO2 emissions, DOE used the
most recent values identified by the
interagency process, adjusted to 2009$
using the standard GDP deflator values
for 2008 and 2009. For each of the four
cases specified, the values for emissions
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2. Monetary Values of Non-Carbon
Emissions
As previously stated, DOE’s analysis
assumed the presence of nationwide
emission caps on SO2 and caps on NOX
emissions in the 28 States covered by
CAIR. In the presence of these caps, the
NEMS–BT modeling system that DOE
used to forecast emissions reduction
indicated that no physical reductions in
power sector emissions would occur
(although there remains uncertainty
about whether physical reduction of
SO2 will occur), but that the standards
could put slight downward pressure on
the prices of emissions allowances in
cap-and-trade markets. Estimating this
effect is very difficult because factors
such as credit banking can change the
trajectory of prices. From its modeling
to date, DOE is unable to estimate a
benefit from energy conservation
standards on the prices of emissions
allowances at this time. See the
environmental assessment in the final
rule TSD for further details.
DOE also investigated the potential
monetary benefit of reduced NOX and
Hg emissions from the TSLs it
considered. As noted above, new or
amended energy conservation standards
would reduce NOX emissions in those
22 States that are not affected by CAIR,
in addition to the reduction in site NOX
emissions nationwide. DOE estimated
the monetized value of NOX emissions
reductions resulting from each of the
TSLs considered for today’s final rule
based on environmental damage
estimates from the literature. Available
estimates suggest a very wide range of
monetary values for NOX emissions,
ranging from $370 per ton to $3,800 per
ton of NOX from stationary sources,
measured in 2001$ (equivalent to a
range of $447 to $4,591 per ton in
2009$). Refer to the OMB, Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs,
‘‘2006 Report to Congress on the Costs
and Benefits of Federal Regulations and
Unfunded Mandates on State, Local,
and Tribal Entities,’’ Washington, DC,
for additional information.
For Hg emissions reductions, DOE
estimated the national monetized values
resulting from the TSLs considered for
today’s rule based on environmental
damage estimates from the literature.
The impact of mercury emissions from
power plants on humans is considered
highly uncertain. However, DOE
identified two estimates of the
environmental damage of Hg based on
estimates of the adverse impact of
childhood exposure to methyl mercury
on IQ for American children, and
subsequent loss of lifetime economic
productivity resulting from these IQ
losses. The high-end estimate of $1.3
billion per year in 2000$ (which works
out to $33.7 million per ton emitted per
year in 2009$) is based on an estimate
of the current aggregate cost of the loss
of IQ in American children that results
from exposure to Hg of U.S. power plant
origin.18 DOE’s low-end estimate of
$0.66 million per ton emitted in 2004$
($0.764 million per ton in 2008$) was
derived from an evaluation of mercury
control that used different methods and
assumptions from the first study, but
was also based on the present value of
the lifetime earnings of children
exposed to Hg.19
V. Discussion of Other Comments
Since DOE opened the docket for this
rulemaking, it has received more than
20 comments from a diverse set of
parties, including manufacturers and
their representatives, States, energy
conservation advocates, and electric
utilities. Section IV of this preamble
discusses comments DOE received on
the analytical methodologies it has used
in this rulemaking. Additional
comments DOE received in response to
the NOPR addressed the information
DOE used in its analyses, results of and
inferences drawn from the analyses,
impacts of standards, the merits of the
different TSLs and standards options
DOE considered, other issues affecting
adoption of standards for small electric
motors, and the DOE rulemaking
process. DOE addresses these comments
below.
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in 2010 used were approximately $5,
$22, $36, and $67 per metric ton
avoided (values expressed in 2009$). To
monetize the CO2 emissions reductions
expected to result from amended
standards for small electric motors in
2015–2045, DOE used the values
identified in Table A1 of the ‘‘Social
Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact
Analysis Under Executive Order 12866,’’
which is reprinted as an Annex to
Chapter 15 of the Technical Support
Document, appropriately escalated to
2009$.
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A. Trial Standard Levels
In selecting the proposed energy
conservation standards for both classes
18 Trasande, L., et al., ‘‘Applying Cost Analyses to
Drive Policy that Protects Children,’’ 1076 Ann.
N.Y. Acad. Sci. 911 (2006).
19 Ted Gayer and Robert Hahn, ‘‘Designing
Environmental Policy: Lessons from the Regulation
of Mercury Emissions,’’ Regulatory Analysis 05–01,
AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies,
Washington, DC (2004). A version of this paper was
published in the Journal of Regulatory Economics
in 2006. The estimate was derived by backcalculating the annual benefits per ton from the net
present value of benefits reported in the study.
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of small electric motors for
consideration in today’s final rule, DOE
started by examining the standard levels
with the highest energy savings, and
determined whether those levels were
economically justified. If DOE found
those levels not to be justified, DOE
considered TSLs sequentially lower in
energy savings until it reached the level
with the greatest energy savings that
was both technologically feasible and
economically justified. In the NOPR
document, DOE proposed TSL 5 for
polyphase motors and TSL 7 for singlephase motors.
Emerson commented that while it is
in favor of efficiency standards in
general, it is not in favor of the proposed
standards for small electric motors. This
is because it diverts a manufacturer’s
attention and funding away from other
energy efficient technologies that it is
developing, which are actually being
used to replace these covered motors. In
its written comments, Emerson asked
that DOE not regulate small electric
motors. (Emerson, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 267–69;
Emerson, No. 28 at p. 3) Underwriters
Laboratories (UL) submitted written
comments stating that over the past five
years the majority of fractional
horsepower motors it has seen have
been electronically commutated motors
(ECM), which reach efficiency levels in
the high 90 percent range. However, UL
continued on to state that DOE should
not set efficiency levels for the covered
motors that reinforce the status quo, but
rather encourage greater efficiency,
which it states the proposed standard
levels would not achieve. (UL, No. 21 at
pp. 1–2) QM Power added that high
standards would cause alternative
technologies to be sold in higher
volumes and as a result bring their
relative prices down. (QM Power, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 290–
91) Finally, a joint comment submitted
by PG&E, SCE, SCGC, and SDGE
indicated support for the standard levels
chosen by DOE in the NOPR phase.
(Joint Comment, No. 23 at
p. 2)
DOE notes that it is legally required
to issue standards for small electric
motors and reiterates that it selects the
standard level with the highest energy
savings that is both technologically
feasible and economically justified. The
standards set in today’s final rule
represent the efficiency level with the
greatest energy savings that is both
technologically feasible and
economically justified. While other
classes of motors, such as electronically
commutated motors (ECMs) may offer
higher efficiency levels than the levels
selected by DOE in today’s rulemaking,
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DOE must consider and evaluate the
covered motors when selecting
efficiency levels.
NEMA commented that a statement in
the NOPR indicated that the proposed
polyphase standard was closely aligned
with the EPACT 1992 efficiency levels.
NEMA was confused by this statement
because the levels proposed in the
NOPR were greater than the EPACT
1992 levels. (NEMA, No. 24 at p. 22)
NEMA also stated that the NOPR
indicates ‘‘TSL 7 corresponds to the
NEMA Premium equivalent efficiency
for CSCR motors,’’ (74 FR 61469) but
that there is no defined level of NEMA
Premium efficiency for any
3⁄4-horsepower, four-pole motor.
(NEMA, No. 24 at p. 24)
DOE would like to clarify these
statements. In the NOPR, DOE stated
‘‘DOE proposes a standard for polyphase
small motors * * * that is closely
aligned with the EPACT 1992 standard
for medium motors.’’ 74 FR 61419–20.
This text should have read that DOE
proposed efficiency levels (TSL 5) for
polyphase small electric motors are
closely aligned with the NEMA
Premium efficiency levels for
1-horsepower, four-pole medium
electric motors. This statement was
restated and asserted at other times
throughout the NOPR document and
DOE regrets any confusion it may have
caused.
In this final rule, due to revisions in
the baseline efficiencies, modeling of
higher efficiency motor designs, and
scaling analysis, TSL 4b now most
closely aligns with NEMA Premium
efficiency levels (and medium electric
motor standards) for motors greater than
1 horsepower. DOE recognizes the value
to manufacturers of having a single
efficiency requirement for similar
models of motors. Because some
efficiency values associated with TSL 4b
are slightly higher than the NEMA
Premium efficiency requirements, DOE
is reducing these values to harmonize
with NEMA Premium efficiency. DOE
does not anticipate that this reduction
will result in a significant loss of energy
savings. For this reason, DOE is
implementing this change after
conducting its analyses and in the final
stage of standard-setting. For further
detail on the polyphase efficiencies
analyzed for TSL 4b, see chapter 5 of the
TSD.
DOE also understands that NEMA
Premium levels exist neither for any
3⁄4-horsepower, four-pole motors nor
single-phase. DOE drew this comparison
to NEMA Premium because
manufacturers had recommended,
during the preliminary analysis, that
DOE examine such a standard level for
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its CSCR motor with the aforementioned
ratings, and the manufacturers used that
terminology when providing their
recommendations to DOE.
In addition, Regal-Beloit and A.O.
Smith commented that a CSCR motor
should be able to generate a higher
efficiency level than a comparable CSIR
motor, but pointed out that DOE’s NOPR
proposed efficiency levels would
require CSIR motors to have higher
efficiencies than corresponding CSCR
motors. (Regal-Beloit, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 107–08; A.O.
Smith, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at p. 108) NEMA also questioned
the validity of DOE’s scaling analysis,
citing the fact that the proposed CSIR
levels were in fact slightly higher than
the proposed CSCR levels. (NEMA, No.
24 at pp. 9–10) They added that though
DOE indicated that the proposed
efficiency levels for CSIR and CSCR
were the same, they were not exactly
equivalent. (NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 25–26)
DOE would like to clarify that it was
not alleging that CSCR motors cannot be
as efficient as CSIR motors. DOE is
aware that CSCR motors are inherently
more efficient than CSIR motors, as
indicated by the NOPR and final rule’s
max-tech efficiency levels for these two
types of motors. DOE had proposed a
standard level where the pairing of
efficiency standards for both motor
categories were approximately
equivalent. DOE analyzed several TSLs
for single-phase motors, some of which
result in higher minimum efficiency
requirements for CSCR motors than
CSIR motors. However, as discussed in
section VI.D, TSL 7, which adopt levels
for CSIR and CSCR that are
approximately equivalent, has been
determined to the level that achieves the
maximum energy savings, while being
technologically feasible and
economically justified.
In consideration of the comments
received regarding the exact equivalence
of the CSIR and CSCR levels, DOE
believes it appropriate to harmonize the
levels of the two categories of motors for
the standard selected in today’s final
rule. Because the TSL 7 represents the
maximum technologically feasible level
for CSIR motors, DOE has opted to
lower these levels to equal the CSCR
standard levels for TSL 7. DOE does not
expect that this shift in CSIR motor
efficiency will have a significant impact
on the comparative economics or energy
savings of the varying TSLs, and thus
will not change the decision of which
TSL to adopt. For this reason, DOE has
decided to apply this efficiency shift at
the standard-setting phase of the
analyses. For further detail on the CSIR
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10913
efficiencies analyzed for TSL 7, see
chapter 5 of the TSD.
B. Enforcement
Thus far in the rulemaking process,
DOE has not laid out any plans for the
enforcement of efficiency standards for
small electric motors. Typically,
efficiency standard rulemakings do not
outline a plan for enforcement, which
occurs independently from the
rulemaking process.
DOE received a number of comments
pertaining to the enforcement of today’s
final rule and what steps DOE will take
to enforce these efficiency standards.
Regal-Beloit, A.O. Smith, and WEG all
expressed the concern that some
manufacturers, most notably from
overseas, may not comply with the
standards, and they wished to see a plan
for how these standards would be
enforced. (Regal-Beloit, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 182–83; A.O.
Smith, No. 26 at p. 3; WEG, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 261–
66) A joint comment submitted by
PG&E, SCE, SCGC, and SDGE also
stressed the importance of developing a
plan for enforcement. (Joint Comment,
No. 23 at p. 2) Emerson agreed with the
joint commenters that a lack of
enforcement would put the domestic
manufacturers who comply with today’s
standard at a disadvantage in the
marketplace because they would incur
the costs necessary to increase
efficiency. (Joint Comment, No. 23 at
p. 2; Emerson, No. 28 at p. 2)
Additionally, DOE received
comments offering suggestions for how
to improve the enforcement of today’s
rule. Both Regal-Beloit commented that
DOE should require a marking on the
motor to indicate that it complies with
the efficiency standard, such as is done
with NEMA Premium motors. (RegalBeloit, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 229–30) Regal-Beloit also
suggested that DOE perform some sort of
audit of the motors on the market to
ensure compliance with today’s rule.
(Regal-Beloit, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at p. 230) Finally,
Earthjustice requested that today’s final
rule outline a specific date on which
DOE will layout plans for enforcement
of the small electric motors standards.
(Earthjustice, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 20.4 at pp. 20–21)
NEMA’s written comment reiterated
these concerns about enforcement, and
outlined several steps DOE should take
to ensure proper compliance. First, it
recommended that DOE expand its
present Compliance Certification
number system that is used for electric
motors to include small electric motors.
Second, it recommended a means to
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notify DOE of potential violations.
Third, it suggested maintaining a Web
site that lists manufacturers and OEMs
who have submitted compliance
certificates. Fourth, it supported
penalties for repeat violations of the
law. Finally, it stressed the importance
of securing the appropriate funds for
implementing and maintaining an
enforcement program. (NEMA, No. 24 at
pp. 26–27) NEEA and NPCC also
commented on the importance of
appropriating funds for enforcement of
today’s standards. (NEEA/NPCC, No. 27
at p. 7)
Additionally, NEMA’s written
comment indicated that DOE must
publish the small electric motors
SNOPR soon in order for manufacturers
to have sufficient time to ensure
compliance with today’s standards.
(NEMA, No. 24 at p. 25)
DOE agrees that the plans for
enforcing today’s final rule are very
important, and appreciates the
suggestions provided by manufacturers.
While it is uncommon for a standard
rulemaking to address issues of
enforcement, DOE would like to
highlight its intention to outline
concrete steps for enforcing today’s
efficiency standards. Given the
numerous rulemakings that the agency
must promulgate pursuant to its court
consent decree and statutory
requirements, DOE plans to issue this
supplemental notice as expeditiously as
possible to invite comment from
interested parties and to ensure that the
motor industry has sufficient time to
adjust to any new provisions that DOE
proposes.
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C. Nominal Full-Load Efficiency
As discussed in section IV.C.2 of
today’s final rule, it is common in the
motor industry to observe variation in
motor performance for a population of
motors of identical designs, including
tested efficiency. This variation can be
due to variations in material quality,
manufacturing processes, and even
testing equipment. NEMA has
established the term ‘‘nominal full-load
efficiency’’ and uses the term for
medium electric motors customers with
a guaranteed efficiency given the
variations in motor manufacturing and
testing. As the tolerances due to
manufacturing and testing variations
guaranteed by NEMA’s definition of
nominal full load efficiency are based
on test procedures and data for medium
electric motors, DOE elected to alter the
definition in its NOPR and as it pertains
to small electric motors. In the NOPR,
DOE defined the term nominal full-load
efficiency as the arithmetic mean of the
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full load efficiency of a population of
motors of duplicate design.
At the NOPR public meeting, Baldor
made several comments regarding
DOE’s proposed definition for ‘‘nominal
full-load efficiency’’ pertaining to small
electric motors. First, Baldor
commented that the proposed definition
was too similar to the existing definition
for ‘‘average full-load efficiency,’’ and
that it differed from the definition in
NEMA MG–1, which would create
confusion for users. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 112,
126–27) Next, Baldor commented that
the proposed definition provided no
stipulation for what constitutes a
population of motors, and suggested
that the term be clarified. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 112–13) These two comments were
reiterated by NEMA in its written
comments. (NEMA, No. 24 at pp. 10–16)
Finally, Baldor commented that the
proposed definition infers that the
arithmetic mean of the full-load
efficiencies of the population of motors
is known and that the nominal full-load
efficiency must be specified to be equal
to the arithmetic mean, which would
provide no limit to the number of
different values of efficiency that might
be marked on nameplates. As such,
Baldor requested further clarification on
the determination of any relationship
between nominal full-load efficiency
and calculated efficiency. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 20.4 at
pp. 114, 125)
Additionally, Baldor recommended
improvements to DOE’s usage of
nominal full-load efficiency. Baldor
stated that the standard levels set by
DOE should follow a pattern similar to
the one already established in Table 12–
6(a), which provides a logical sequence
of numbers, and is familiar to motor
users. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 20.4 at pp. 129–31)
Baldor also pointed out that DOE is able
to use the nominal values in Table 12–
6(a) without using the minimum values,
which are just provided for user
information but not for compliance.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 142–43) Again, NEMA
supported these statements in its
written comments. (NEMA, No. 24 at p.
14) Finally, Baldor and NEMA stated
that DOE does not need to establish
energy conservation standards in terms
of nominal efficiency, but rather
identify the characteristic of the
efficiency value assigned to a motor to
which a value in the table applies.
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
20.4 at pp. 134–35; NEMA, No. 24 at pp.
15–16)
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DOE considered all of these
comments when it established energy
conservation standards for small electric
motors in today’s final rule. DOE agrees
with NEMA and Baldor that its energy
efficiency standards are not mandated to
be in terms of nominal full-load
efficiency. Instead, DOE believes that
nominal efficiency is an issue more
related to certifying compliance.
Therefore, DOE has elected to establish
energy conservation standards in terms
of average full-load efficiency. DOE will
address comments related to nominal
efficiency and propose provisions for
certifying compliance with small
electric motor energy efficiency
standards in its supplemental test
procedure NOPR for electric motors.
VI. Analytical Results and Conclusions
A. Trial Standard Levels
DOE examined eight TSLs for
polyphase small electric motors and
eight for capacitor-start small motors.
Table VI.1 and Table VI.2 present the
TSLs and the corresponding efficiencies
for the three representative product
classes analyzed for today’s final rule.
TSL 8 is the max-tech efficiency level
for the polyphase motors, and TSL 7 is
the max-tech level for the capacitor-start
motors.
TABLE VI.1—TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS
FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC
MOTORS *
Polyphase
four-pole
1-horsepower
%
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
1 ....................................
2 ....................................
3 ....................................
4 ....................................
4b ..................................
5 ....................................
6 ....................................
7 ....................................
77.3
78.3
80.5
81.1
83.5
85.2
86.2
87.7
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of
full-load efficiency.
DOE’s polyphase TSLs represent the
increasing efficiency of the range of
motors DOE modeled in its engineering
analysis. DOE incorporated one
additional TSL since the NOPR, which
is the new TSL 4b. This TSL
approximately aligns with the efficiency
values proposed by NEMA in their
written comments.
TSLs 1, 2, and 3 represent
incremental improvements in efficiency
as a result of increasing the stack height
and the slot fill percentage. TSL 4
represents the efficiency level possible
by increasing stack height by 20 percent
while maintaining the baseline steel
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grade and an aluminum rotor. TSL 4b
approximately aligns with the efficiency
levels proposed by NEMA in its written
comment, and for the representative
product class is comparable to the
efficiency of a three-digit frame series
medium electric motor that meets the
efficiency requirements of EPCA. TSL 5
represents the highest efficiency value
for a space-constrained design before
switching to a copper rotor. TSL 6
represents a level at which DOE has
reached the 20 percent limit of
increased stack height, increased grades
of steel and included a copper die-cast
rotor. Also, TSL 6 is comparable to the
efficiency standard of a three-digit frame
series medium electric motor that meets
the NEMA Premium level, which
Congress has set as an energy
conservation standard for medium
motors through section 313(b) of EISA
2007. At TSL 7, the max-tech efficiency
level, for the restricted designs DOE has
reached the design limit using the
maximum increase in stack height of 20
percent and increased grades of steel. At
this level, DOE has also implemented a
premium steel type (Hiperco 50), a
copper die-cast rotor, a maximum slot
fill percentage of nearly 65 percent. For
the lesser space-constrained design,
DOE has decreased the stack height
from the design used at TSL 6. This
design incorporates a copper rotor while
reaching the design limitation
maximum slot fill percentage.
TABLE VI.2—TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS
FOR
CAPACITOR-START
SMALL
ELECTRIC MOTORS*
Capacitorstart, induction-run
4-pole 0.50
horsepower
motors
(%)
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
........
70.5
70.5
71.8
73.1
73.1
77.6
77.6
77.6
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
4)
4)
5)
6)
6)
7)
7)
7)
Capacitorstart, capacitor-run
4-pole 0.75
horsepower
motors
(%)
79.5
81.7
81.7
82.8
81.7
87.9
81.7
86.7
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
(EL
2)
3)
3)
4)
3)
8)
3)
7)
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* Standard levels are expressed in terms of
full-load efficiency.
Each TSL for capacitor-start small
motors consists of a combination of
efficiency levels for induction-run and
capacitor-run motors. CSIR and CSCR
motors are used in similar applications
and generally can be used
interchangeably provided the
applications are not bound by strict
space constraints and will allow the
presence of a second capacitor housing
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of the motor. DOE believes that the
standards set by today’s rule will impact
the relative market share of CSIR and
CSCR motors for general-purpose singlephase applications by changing the
upfront cost of motors as well as their
estimated losses. Section IV.G of this
final rule and chapter 9 of the TSD
describe DOE’s model of this market
dynamic.
DOE developed seven possible
efficiency levels for CSIR motors and
eight possible efficiency levels for CSCR
motors. Rather than present all possible
combinations of these efficiency levels,
DOE chose a representative set of 8
TSLs that span the range from low
energy savings to the maximum national
energy savings. Because of the
interaction between the CSIR and CSCR
market share, there is no simple
relationship between the combination of
efficiency levels and the resulting
energy savings. DOE’s capacitor-start
cross-elasticity model was used to
evaluate the impacts of each TSL on
motor shipments in each product class.
The model predicts that TSLs 1 through
5 result in relatively minor changes in
product class market shares, while TSLs
6, 7, and 8 result in more significant
changes. Uncertainties in the crosselasticity model, and in the timescale of
market share response to standards, lead
to greater uncertainty in the national
impacts of TSLs 6, 7, and 8, than with
TSLs 1 through 5. A summary of results
for all combinations of CSIR and CSCR
efficiency levels is presented in chapter
10 of the TSD.
TSL 1 is a combination consisting of
the fourth efficiency level analyzed for
CSIR motors and the second efficiency
level for CSCR motors. This TSL uses
similar engineering design options for
both CSIR and CSCR motors and
corresponds to an efficiency level
roughly equivalent to the standards
levels recommend for 42/48-frame-size
CSIR motors and 56-frame size CSCR
motors by NEMA. TSL 2 increases the
efficiency level of the CSCR motor to the
third efficiency level, which
corresponds to the minimum life-cycle
cost. The efficiency level for the CSIR
motor remains the same as in TSL 1.
TSL 3 raises the CSIR efficiency level,
which DOE’s model meets by
implementing a copper die-cast rotor,
increasing slot fill, and reaching the 20
percent limit on increased stack height,
or by doubling the original stack height
and increasing slot fill. However, the
CSCR efficiency level remains at the
minimum LCC.
TSLs 4 and 5 both show the same
efficiency level for CSIR motors, but
different efficiency levels for CSCR
motors. To obtain the efficiency level for
PO 00000
Frm 00043
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10915
CSIR motors, DOE had to use either a
copper rotor in combination with a
thinner and higher grade of steel and a
stack increase of 20 percent, or only a
higher grade of steel with a stack
exceeding a 20-percent increase but no
longer than a 100-percent increase. The
82.2-percent efficiency level for CSCR
motors in TSL 5 corresponds again to
the same design and efficiency level for
TSL 2 and 3. To achieve the 83.2percent efficiency level for CSCR motors
in TSL 4, DOE created designs with a
20-percent increase in stack height and
a higher grade of steel or used a copper
rotor with a stack height above a 20percent increase. TSL 4 represents the
combination of the highest CSIR and
CSCR levels that have more customers
who benefit than customers who do not
according to DOE’s LCC analysis. TSL 5
increases energy savings relative to TSL
4 because DOE anticipates there will be
a greater CSCR market share, and the
CSCR efficiency level again corresponds
with the minimum LCC.
TSL 6 represents max-tech efficiency
levels for CSIR and CSCR motors, as
determined by DOE’s engineering
analysis; at this level CSCR motors are
very expensive relative to CSIR motors,
and DOE forecasts a nearly complete
market shift to CSIR motors. TSLs 7 and
8 represent cases in which CSIR motors
are, on average, very expensive relative
to CSCR motors as a result of standards,
and DOE forecasts near-to-complete
market shifts to CSCR motors in both of
its reference scenarios. Because CSCR
motors are more efficient at these levels,
national energy savings are increased
beyond that of the max-tech efficiency
level, TSL 6. TSL 7 pairs the max-tech
efficiency requirements for CSIR motors
with the minimum LCC efficiency level
for CSCR motors, while TSL 8 pairs
max-tech CSIR efficiency requirements
with the second-highest CSCR motor
efficiency level that DOE analyzed. The
ordering of TSLs 5, 6, 7, and 8, with
respect to energy savings is robust in the
face of uncertainties in the inputs to,
and the parameters of, DOE’s crosselasticity model.
B. Significance of Energy Savings
To estimate the energy savings
through year 2045 from potential
standards, DOE compared the energy
consumption attributable to small
electric motors under the base case (no
new standards) to energy consumption
attributable to this equipment under
each standards case (each TSL that DOE
has considered). Table VI.3 and Table
VI.4 show DOE’s national energy
savings estimates, which are based on
the AEO 2010 Early Release, for each
TSL for polyphase and capacitor-start
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
small electric motors, respectively.
Chapter 10 of the TSD describes these
estimates in more detail. DOE reports
both undiscounted and discounted
values of energy savings. Discounted
energy savings represent a policy
perspective where energy savings
farther in the future are less significant
than energy savings closer to the
present.
Estimating the energy savings due to
revised and new energy efficiency
standards required DOE to compare the
energy consumption of small electric
motors under the base case to energy
consumption of these products under
the trial standard levels. As described in
section IV.G DOE used scaling relations
for energy use and equipment price to
extend its average energy use and price
for representative product classes
(analyzed in the LCC analysis) to all
product classes, and then developed
shipment-weighted sums to estimate the
national energy savings. As described in
section IV.G, DOE conducted separate
national impact analyses for polyphase
and capacitor-start (single-phase)
motors. Efficiency standards for CSIR
and CSCR motors are reflected in the
capacitor-start energy savings and NPV
results, which account for the
interchangeability of CSIR and CSCR
motors in many applications.
Table VI.3 and Table VI.4 show the
forecasted national energy savings
through year 2045 at each of the TSLs.
The tables also show the magnitude of
the energy savings if the savings are
discounted at rates of seven and three
percent. The energy savings
(undiscounted) from implementing
standards for polyphase small electric
motors range from 0.05 to 0.37 quad and
the savings for capacitor-start small
electric motors range from 1.18 to 2.33
quads.
TABLE VI.3—SUMMARY OF CUMULATIVE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Energy savings between 2015 and 2045]
National energy savings (quads)
Trial standard level
Not discounted
1 .................................................................................................................................
2 .................................................................................................................................
3 .................................................................................................................................
4 .................................................................................................................................
4b ...............................................................................................................................
5 .................................................................................................................................
6 .................................................................................................................................
7 .................................................................................................................................
Discounted at 3%
Discounted at 7%
0.03
0.05
0.09
0.10
0.15
0.18
0.19
0.20
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.09
0.09
0.05
0.09
0.17
0.19
0.29
0.34
0.37
0.37
TABLE VI.4—SUMMARY OF CUMULATIVE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS FOR CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Energy savings between 2015 and 2045]
National energy savings (quads)
Trial standard level
Not discounted
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
DOE conducted a wide range of
sensitivity analyses, including scenarios
demonstrating the effects of variation in
shipments, response of customers to
higher motor prices, the cost of
electricity due to a carbon cap and trade
regime, reactive power costs, and (for
capacitor-start motors) the dynamics of
CSIR/CSCR consumer choice. These
scenarios show a range of possible
outcomes from projected energy
conservation standards, and illustrate
the sensitivity of these results to
different input and modeling
assumptions. In general, however, they
do not dramatically change the
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Discounted at 7%
0.63
0.64
0.73
0.79
0.79
0.87
1.03
1.25
0.31
0.31
0.36
0.39
0.39
0.43
0.51
0.62
1.18
1.19
1.36
1.47
1.47
1.61
1.91
2.33
relationship between results at one TSL
with those at another TSL and the
relative economic savings and energy
savings of different TSLs remain
roughly the same. The estimated overall
magnitude of savings, however, can
change substantially, which can be due
to a change in the estimated total
number of small electric motors in use.
Details of each scenario are available in
chapter 10 of the TSD and its
appendices, along with the national
energy savings estimated for each
scenario.
Customers currently appear to favor
CSIR motors over CSCR motors, even if
PO 00000
Discounted at 3%
their initial costs and losses are almost
identical. DOE’s market-share model
includes an ‘‘unfamiliarity cost’’
parameter that attempts to account for
this observed behavior. For the
shipments sensitivity analysis, DOE
analyzed the total energy savings from
capacitor-start motors when this
unfamiliarity cost is significantly lower
(high CSCR model) or higher (low CSCR
model) than DOE’s reference case. These
scenarios can have a significant impact
on the relative energy savings in
different TSLs. Table VI.5 shows the
results for the national energy savings
(through year 2045) in these scenarios.
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
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10917
TABLE VI.5—UNDISCOUNTED CUMULATIVE NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS FOR CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
UNDER DIFFERENT CSIR/CSCR MARKET SHARE SCENARIOS
[Energy savings between years 2015 and 2045]
National energy savings quads
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
.................................................................................................................................
C. Economic Justification
In examining the potential for energy
savings for small electric motors, DOE
analyzed whether standards would be
economically justified. As part of this
examination, a variety of elements were
examined. These elements are based on
the various criteria specified in EPCA.
See generally, 42 U.S.C. 6295.
1. Economic Impact on Motor
Customers
DOE analyzed the economic impacts
on small electric motor customers by
looking at the effects standards would
have on the LCC, PBP, and on various
subgroups. DOE also examined the
effects of the rebuttable presumption
payback period set out in 42 U.S.C.
6295. All of these analyses are discussed
below.
a. Life-Cycle Costs and Payback Period
Customers of equipment affected by
new or amended standards usually
experience higher purchase prices and
lower operating costs. Generally, these
impacts are best captured by changes in
life-cycle costs. Therefore, DOE
calculated the LCC and PBP for the
standards levels considered in this
proceeding. DOE’s LCC and PBP
analyses provided five key outputs for
each TSL, which are reported in Table
VI.6 through Table VI.8 below. The first
three outputs are the proportion of small
motor purchases where the purchase of
a design that complies with the TSL
would create a net life-cycle cost, no
impact, or a net life-cycle savings for the
consumer. The fourth output is the
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Low CSCR
scenario
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17:37 Mar 08, 2010
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1.17
1.17
1.34
1.43
1.43
1.61
1.87
2.17
average net life-cycle savings from the
purchase of a complying design.
Finally, the fifth output is the average
PBP for the consumer purchase of a
design that complies with the TSL. The
PBP is the number of years it would take
for the customer to recover, as a result
of energy savings, the increased costs of
higher-efficiency equipment, based on
the operating cost savings from the first
year of ownership. The payback period
is an economic benefit-cost measure that
uses benefits and costs without
discounting. DOE’s PBP analysis and its
analysis under the rebuttable
presumption test both address the
payback period for a standard. DOE
based its estimates of the average PBPs
for small electric motors on energy
consumption under conditions of actual
use of these motors and also analyzed
the amount of energy consumption for
purposes of the rebuttable presumption
calculations using the conditions
prescribed by the DOE test procedure.
See 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii).
Moreover, as discussed above, while
DOE examined the rebuttablepresumption criteria (see TSD section
VI.C.1.d), it determined today’s standard
levels to be economically justified
through a more detailed analysis of the
economic impacts of increased
efficiency pursuant to section
325(o)(2)(B)(i) of EPCA. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) Detailed information on
the LCC and PBP analyses can be found
in TSD Chapter 8.
DOE analyzed the life-cycle cost for
three representative motors, as shown in
Table VI.6 through Table VI.8. A Monte
PO 00000
Frm 00045
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4700
Reference
scenario
1.18
1.19
1.36
1.47
1.47
1.61
1.91
2.33
High CSCR
scenario
1.30
1.38
1.52
1.67
1.65
1.62
1.92
2.37
Carlo simulation was performed to
incorporate uncertainty and variability
into the analysis. A random sample of
10,000 motors was drawn from the
distributions of current national
shipments by motor type, application,
owner type, operating hours, and other
inputs, using Crystal Ball, a
commercially available software
program. The model calculated the LCC
and PBP for equipment at each
efficiency level for each of the 10,000
motors sampled. For a 1-horsepower
polyphase motor, customers experience
net LCC savings, on average, through
efficiency level 4b. Efficiency level 3
has the minimum average life-cycle
cost. For a 1⁄2-horsepower CSIR motor,
customers experience net LCC savings,
on average, through efficiency level 6.
CSIR efficiency level 4 has the
minimum average life-cycle cost. For a
3⁄4-horsepower CSCR motor, customers
experience net LCC savings, on average,
through efficiency level 5. CSCR
efficiency level 3 has the greatest
average life-cycle cost savings. The
average payback periods in the tables
are substantially longer than the median
payback periods because a fraction of
customers run their motors very few
hours per year. This results in
extraordinarily long payback periods for
this fraction of customers and results in
average payback periods that far exceed
the median payback period. DOE
believes that the median payback period
represents the anticipated experience of
the typical customer more accurately
than the average payback period.
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.6—POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A ONE
HORSEPOWER MOTOR
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
4 ................................................
4b ..............................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
Efficiency
%
Life-cycle cost savings
Payback period
years
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
517
530
537
549
558
589
655
711
1,477
1,892
1,729
1,686
1,630
1,615
1,540
1,508
1,488
1,462
130
127
123
119
118
113
110
109
107
1,268
1,261
1,249
1,237
1,240
1,240
1,291
1,339
2,095
................
8
19
31
29
28
¥23
¥71
¥827
................
46.8
41.3
40.6
45.1
51.2
65.8
77.4
96.8
................
53.2
58.7
59.4
54.9
48.8
34.3
22.6
3.2
................
21.8
17.8
17.7
20.4
24.8
41.5
54.2
243.0
................
7.1
5.8
5.6
6.5
7.8
12.4
16.9
51.1
74.0
76.1
77.7
79.4
80.1
82.6
84.4
85.3
87.0
TABLE VI.7—CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A
ONE-HALF HORSEPOWER MOTOR
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
4 ................................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
Efficiency
%
Life-cycle cost savings
Payback period
years
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
494
502
508
511
529
549
593
996
1,250
1,170
1,116
1,064
976
951
920
860
91
85
81
77
71
69
67
63
915
896
884
869
857
868
902
1,285
................
19
31
46
58
47
13
¥369
................
27
28
24
32
42
55
66
................
73
72
76
68
58
45
34
................
8.6
8.8
7.5
10.5
15.1
24.9
108.2
................
2.7
2.8
2.3
3.2
4.7
7.2
12.4
59.0
62.2
64.5
66.7
71.5
72.7
74.0
78.4
TABLE VI.8—CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR-RUN MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A
THREE-QUARTER HORSEPOWER MOTOR
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
4 ................................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
8 ................................................
Efficiency
%
Life-cycle cost savings
Payback period
years
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
548
559
587
599
612
630
670
697
1,485
1,425
1,360
1,250
1,205
1,214
1,201
1,179
1,146
1,115
104
99
91
88
88
88
86
84
81
1,026
1,014
1,005
1,002
1,015
1,029
1,062
1,078
1,856
................
12
21
24
11
¥3
¥36
¥52
¥830
................
36
46
48
55
62
70
75
99
................
64
54
52
45
38
30
25
1
................
13.4
18.5
19.1
24.4
29.5
40.3
43.5
250.0
................
4.3
5.8
5.9
7.8
9.4
11.8
13.1
49.0
72.0
75.7
80.0
82.2
83.2
84.5
85.2
87.1
88.4
DOE analyzed the average life-cycle
cost for a shipment-weighted
distribution of product classes, as
shown in Table VI.9, Table VI.10 and
Table VI.11. The results in these tables
account for motors of different
horsepower and pole configuration from
the three representative motors shown
in Table VI.6 through Table VI.8.
TABLE VI.9—POLYPHASE MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A SHIPMENT-WEIGHTED
PRODUCT CLASS DISTRIBUTION
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
Efficiency
%
78.8
80.6
82.0
83.4
Jkt 220001
Life-cycle cost savings
Payback period
years
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
515
528
535
547
1934
1883
1836
1775
139.52
135.85
132.45
128.07
1,323
1,314
1,302
1,287
................
9
22
36
................
44.7
39.2
38.7
................
55.3
60.8
61.3
................
21.1
17.2
17.1
................
6.6
5.3
5.2
PO 00000
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.9—POLYPHASE MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A SHIPMENT-WEIGHTED
PRODUCT CLASS DISTRIBUTION—Continued
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Efficiency
%
4 ................................................
4b ..............................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
Life-cycle cost savings
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
556
587
651
707
1,465
1759
1678
1643
1622
1594
126.91
121.06
118.52
116.99
114.96
1,289
1,288
1,337
1,383
2,131
34
36
¥13
¥60
¥808
42.7
49.2
63.2
74.8
96.2
84.0
86.1
87.6
88.4
89.7
Payback period
years
Net
benefit
%
57.3
50.8
36.8
25.2
3.8
Average
19.6
23.9
39.1
51.8
220.4
Median
6.0
7.3
11.5
15.7
47.8
TABLE VI.10—CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A
SHIPMENT-WEIGHTED PRODUCT CLASS DISTRIBUTION
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Average
efficiency
%
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
4 ................................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
Life-cycle cost savings
Payback period
years
Customers with
Average installed price
$
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
496
504
510
513
531
551
595
1,000
1265
1182
1125
1071
979
953
920
858
92.12
86.03
81.89
77.96
71.28
69.40
67.00
62.48
920
900
888
871
859
870
903
1,287
................
20
33
49
62
51
17
¥367
................
26.9
27.7
24.0
30.7
40.2
54.1
65.1
................
73.1
72.3
76.0
69.3
59.8
45.9
34.9
................
8.5
8.7
7.4
10.4
14.9
24.5
104.4
................
2.5
2.6
2.2
3.1
4.5
7.0
11.7
49.9
53.2
55.7
58.1
63.5
64.8
66.3
71.5
TABLE VI.11—CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR-RUN MOTORS: LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS FOR A
SHIPMENT-WEIGHTED PRODUCT CLASS DISTRIBUTION
Life-cycle cost
Energy efficiency level
Average
efficiency
%
Baseline .....................................
1 ................................................
2 ................................................
3 ................................................
4 ................................................
5 ................................................
6 ................................................
7 ................................................
8 ................................................
Average annual operating cost
$
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Average
savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
582
594
626
639
653
673
719
749
1,629
2310
2208
2036
1965
1979
1959
1923
1873
1824
167.38
160.02
147.55
142.43
143.43
141.96
139.37
135.72
132.17
1,349
1,325
1,299
1,289
1,304
1,318
1,351
1,364
2,228
................
24
50
60
45
32
¥1
¥15
¥879
................
29.3
38.4
39.7
46.1
52.6
60.2
65.1
94.7
................
70.7
61.6
60.3
53.9
47.4
39.9
35.0
5.3
................
10.9
14.9
15.4
19.8
23.9
32.5
35.1
200.0
................
3.3
4.4
4.6
5.9
7.2
8.9
10.1
36.4
73.2
76.7
80.9
83.0
84.0
85.2
85.9
87.8
89.0
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Jkt 220001
Customers with
Average annual energy
use
kWh
DOE made sensitivity calculations for
the case where CSIR motor owners
switch to CSCR motors. DOE reports the
details of the sensitivity calculations in
chapter 8 of the TSD and the
accompanying appendices. Section
VI.C.1.a above describes the relationship
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
Payback period
years
Average installed price
$
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity
Calculations
VerDate Nov<24>2008
Life-cycle cost savings
between efficiency levels for the two
categories of capacitor-start motors and
the TSLs. For TSLs where there is a
large increase in first cost for CSIR
motors and only a moderate increase in
price for CSCR motors, DOE forecasts
that a large fraction of CSIR motor
customers will switch to CSCR motors.
Table VI.12 shows the shipmentsweighted average of the LCC for CSIR
PO 00000
Frm 00047
Fmt 4701
Sfmt 4700
motors including those users that switch
to CSCR. The table shows that a
negative average LCC is forecast for TSL
6, the level at which both CSIR and
CSCR motors are at the maximum
technologically feasible efficiency for
space-constrained designs, and at TSL 8,
the level with the greatest energy
savings.
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.12—CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION-RUN MOTORS: SHIPMENT-WEIGHTED LIFE-CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK
PERIOD RESULTS FOR A ONE-HALF HORSEPOWER MOTOR WITH SWITCHING TO CSCR
Life-cycle cost
Trial standard level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
70.8
70.8
69.0
66.7
66.7
62.4
63.1
61.9
528
528
547
590
589
994
601
633
Additional sensitivity analyses
examined the magnitude by which the
estimates varied when the results of the
NEMA survey of OEMs (motor
distributions by application and sector,
operating hours, and the fraction of
motors that are space-constrained in
their applications) were used. Other
sensitivities were conducted by varying
inputs such as the cost of electricity, the
purchase year of the motor, the motor
capacity, the number of poles and other
inputs and assumptions of the analysis.
DOE reports the details of all of the
sensitivity calculations in chapter 8 of
the TSD and the accompanying
appendices.
As discussed in section IV.E.1 above,
NEMA submitted the results of a survey
of their OEM customers that install
motors covered by today’s rule in their
products. The survey reports
distributions by application and owner
Customers with
Average annual operating cost
$
969
969
945
913
913
854
863
847
Average installed price
$
Baseline
1 .................................................
2 .................................................
3 .................................................
4 .................................................
5 .................................................
6 .................................................
7 .................................................
8 .................................................
Life-cycle cost savings
Average life
cycle cost
$
Average
savings
$
854
854
865
897
897
1,282
891
917
type, estimates of annual hours of
operation, and the fraction of motors
that are space-constrained. NEMA also
provided information on a sixth
application not included in DOE’s
NOPR, service industry motors. DOE ran
a sensitivity analysis using the data
NEMA provided on motor distributions.
Under this sensitivity, LCC savings are
reduced and payback periods are
increased for polyphase and CSCR
motor customers, while LCC savings are
increased and payback periods reduced
for CSIR motor customers. This is the
result of average operating hours of
polyphase and CSCR motors being
reduced by about 30 percent from the
DOE reference case, while operating
hours of CSIR motors are increased by
about 10 percent.
Details on these and other LCC
sensitivity cases can be found in TSD
appendix 8A.
Net
benefit
%
Net cost
%
58
58
47
15
15
¥370
23
¥3
32.5
32.5
41.7
55.0
55.0
66.0
53.7
60.6
67.5
67.5
58.3
45.0
45.0
34.0
46.3
39.4
c. Customer Subgroup Analysis
Using the LCC spreadsheet model,
DOE estimated the impacts of the TSLs
on the following customer subgroups:
Small businesses and customers with
space-constrained applications. DOE
analyzed the small business subgroup
because this group has typically had
less access to capital than larger
businesses, which results in higher
financing costs and a higher discount
rate than the industry average. 74 FR
61442, 61459. DOE estimated the LCC
and PBP for the small business
subgroup, as shown in Table VI.13
through Table VI.15. The analysis
indicates that the small business
subgroup is expected to have lower LCC
savings and longer payback periods than
the industry average.
Chapter 12 of the TSD provides more
detailed discussion on the LCC
subgroup analysis and results.
TABLE VI.13—POLYPHASE MOTORS: SMALL BUSINESS CUSTOMER SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
516
529
536
548
556
588
652
708
1,460
1888
1838
1792
1733
1718
1639
1604
1584
1557
137.84
134.21
130.85
126.54
125.39
119.63
117.13
115.60
113.63
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Baseline .........................................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
4b ..................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
7 ....................................................................
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Life-cycle cost savings
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Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Sfmt 4700
1,192
1,186
1,177
1,167
1,170
1,174
1,226
1,274
2,017
Payback period
years
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Consumers with
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
6
15
25
22
18
¥34
¥82
¥825
................
51.9
46.1
45.5
49.7
56.5
69.6
80.2
97.4
................
48.1
54.0
54.5
50.3
43.5
30.4
19.9
2.6
................
22.0
18.0
17.9
20.6
25.1
41.8
54.7
243.1
................
6.9
5.6
5.5
6.3
7.7
12.2
16.7
50.2
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.14—CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION RUN MOTORS: SMALL BUSINESS CUSTOMER SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Life-cycle cost savings
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
497
506
512
514
533
553
597
995
1261
1178
1121
1067
976
950
917
855
91.33
85.28
81.16
77.25
70.63
68.75
66.37
61.89
Baseline .........................................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
7 ....................................................................
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
869
852
842
828
819
832
866
1,246
Payback period
years
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Consumers with
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
16
27
41
50
37
3
¥377
................
31.3
32.4
28.0
35.8
45.3
58.6
68.5
................
68.7
67.6
72.0
64.2
54.7
41.4
31.5
................
8.5
8.7
7.4
10.4
14.9
24.7
108.4
................
2.6
2.7
2.3
3.2
4.6
7.1
11.9
TABLE VI.15 CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR RUN MOTORS: SMALL BUSINESS CUSTOMER SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Life-cycle cost savings
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
586
598
630
643
657
678
723
754
1,633
2339
2236
2062
1991
2005
1985
1949
1898
1849
169.80
162.36
149.73
144.55
145.59
144.09
141.51
137.82
134.23
CSCR Baseline .............................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
7 ....................................................................
8 ....................................................................
DOE has analyzed customers with
space-constrained applications, i.e.,
customers whose motor stack length can
increase by no more than 20 percent,
because they cannot realize the full
economic benefit of efficiency
improvements in small electric motors.
Increasing the stack length of small
motors is one way to improve their
efficiency. But customers with spaceconstrained applications cannot
increase the stack length of the motors
they use without being subject to
burdens to which other small motor
users are not. Furthermore, although
small electric motors without increased
stack length could meet the TSLs DOE
has evaluated in this rulemaking, such
motors use other, more costly design
options. Table VI.16 through Table
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
1,273
1,253
1,234
1,226
1,241
1,256
1,290
1,306
2,171
Payback period
years
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
20
39
47
32
17
¥17
¥33
¥898
................
33.6
43.4
44.7
51.1
58.0
65.1
69.7
96.0
................
66.4
56.6
55.3
48.9
42.0
34.9
30.4
4.0
................
10.8
15.0
15.5
19.7
23.9
32.8
35.4
205.3
................
3.3
4.4
4.6
6.0
7.3
9.1
10.2
37.3
VI.18 show the mean LCC savings and
the mean PBP (in years) for equipment
that meets the energy conservation
standards in today’s final rule for the
subgroup of customers with spaceconstrained applications.
The analysis indicates that the
economic benefits of efficiency
improvements in small electric motors
will be lower for customers subject to
space constraints than for those who do
not face such constraints, as well as for
the industry average, particularly for
motors at the higher efficiency levels.
For the standard levels promulgated by
today’s rule, customers will still realize
net benefits from space-constrained
polyphase and CSCR motors, but not
from space-constrained CSIR motors.
OEMs whose applications have space
Consumers with
constraints can replace a less efficient
CSIR motor with a more efficient CSCR
motor without increasing stack length,
and still realize net benefits, as shown
in Table VI.12 above. If these
applications cannot accommodate a
motor with a run capacitor, OEMs can
either redesign their application to
accommodate a CSCR motor, purchase a
stockpile of motors not covered by
today’s rule to install in future
production of their application, or
replace their motor with a fully
enclosed motor not covered by today’s
rule.
Chapter 11 of the TSD explains DOE’s
method for conducting the customer
subgroup analysis and presents the
detailed results of that analysis.
TABLE VI.16—POLYPHASE MOTORS: SPACE-CONSTRAINED APPLICATIONS SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Average installed price
$
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
512
524
531
543
552
582
756
769
1903
1853
1807
1748
1732
1650
1610
1590
140.60
136.90
133.49
129.13
127.96
121.98
119.00
117.55
Baseline .........................................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
4b ..................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
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Average
life-cycle
cost
$
Sfmt 4700
1,318
1,308
1,296
1,282
1,284
1,280
1,437
1,441
Payback period
years
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Consumers with
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
9
22
36
34
37
¥120
¥123
................
45.6
40.2
39.6
43.7
49.7
84.8
84.3
................
54.4
59.8
60.4
56.3
50.3
15.2
15.7
................
21.5
17.5
17.4
20.0
24.2
71.8
70.7
................
6.8
5.5
5.4
6.3
7.5
22.3
22.1
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.16—POLYPHASE MOTORS: SPACE-CONSTRAINED APPLICATIONS SUBGROUP—Continued
Life-cycle cost
Life-cycle cost savings
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
3,548
1543
114.11
7 ....................................................................
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
4,201
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Net cost
%
¥2,883
100.0
Payback period
years
Consumers with
Net
benefit
%
Average
0.0
728.2
Median
226.0
TABLE VI.17—CAPACITOR-START INDUCTION RUN MOTORS: SPACE-CONSTRAINED APPLICATIONS CUSTOMER SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Life-cycle cost savings
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
494
503
509
511
539
544
665
2,559
1274
1190
1133
1079
976
955
925
848
92.66
86.56
82.42
78.48
71.00
69.45
67.28
61.68
Baseline .........................................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
7 ....................................................................
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
923
903
890
873
867
864
976
2,843
Payback period
years
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Consumers with
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
20
33
49
56
58
¥53
¥1,921
................
26.7
27.5
23.6
37.2
38.0
74.0
100.0
................
73.3
72.5
76.4
62.8
62.0
26.0
0.0
................
8.5
8.8
7.5
12.9
13.4
42.3
418.9
................
2.6
2.6
2.2
3.9
4.0
12.6
124.7
TABLE VI.18—CAPACITOR-START CAPACITOR RUN MOTORS: SPACE-CONSTRAINED APPLICATIONS CUSTOMER SUBGROUP
Life-cycle cost
Average installed price
$
Energy efficiency level
Average annual energy
use
kWh
Average annual operating cost
$
579
591
633
645
653
671
839
854
3,992
2313
2212
2053
1998
1991
1981
1914
1862
1815
167.74
160.38
148.85
144.88
144.36
143.61
138.80
135.02
131.61
Baseline .........................................................
1 ....................................................................
2 ....................................................................
3 ....................................................................
4 ....................................................................
5 ....................................................................
6 ....................................................................
7 ....................................................................
8 ....................................................................
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
As discussed in section III.D.2, EPCA
provides a rebuttable presumption that,
in essence, an energy conservation
standard is economically justified if the
increased purchase cost for a product
that meets the standard is less than
three times the value of the first-year
energy savings resulting from the
standard. However, DOE routinely
conducts a full economic analysis that
considers the full range of impacts,
including those to the customer,
manufacturer, Nation, and environment,
as required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(e)(1). The results of this analysis
serve as the basis for DOE to evaluate
definitively the economic justification
for a potential standard level (thereby
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
Life-cycle cost savings
Jkt 220001
Average
life-cycle
cost
$
1,355
1,331
1,320
1,312
1,316
1,330
1,476
1,473
4,597
Average
life-cycle
cost savings
$
Net cost
%
Net
benefit
%
Average
Median
................
24
35
43
40
26
¥121
¥118
¥3,242
................
29.2
47.4
47.2
49.3
55.4
84.3
82.5
100.0
................
70.8
52.6
52.8
50.7
44.6
15.7
17.5
0.0
................
10.9
19.0
19.2
21.1
25.3
60.1
56.3
634.4
................
3.3
5.8
5.9
6.5
7.8
18.4
17.1
193.1
supporting or rebutting the results of
any preliminary determination of
economic justification).
For comparison with the more
detailed analysis results, DOE
calculated a rebuttable presumption
payback period for each TSL. Table
VI.19 and Table VI.20 show the
rebuttable presumption payback periods
for the representative product classes.
No polyphase TSL has a rebuttable
presumption payback period of less
than 3 years. For CSIR and CSCR
motors, TSLs 1 through 3 have
rebuttable presumption payback periods
of less than 3 years.
PO 00000
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Payback period
years
Consumers with
TABLE VI.19—REBUTTABLE-PRESUMPTION PAYBACK PERIODS FOR REPRESENTATIVE
POLYPHASE SMALL
ELECTRIC MOTORS (1 HP, 4 POLES)
TSL
1 ............................................
2 ............................................
3 ............................................
4 ............................................
4b ..........................................
5 ............................................
6 ............................................
7 ............................................
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
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Payback
period years
3.3
3.0
3.3
3.8
4.9
7.9
10.2
45.7
10923
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.20—REBUTTABLE-PRESUMPTION PAYBACK PERIODS FOR REPRESENTATIVE CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC
MOTORS
Induction-run (1⁄2 hp, 4 poles)
TSL
Payback period
years
CSIR level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................
2. Economic Impact on Manufacturers
For the NOPR, DOE used the INPV in
the MIA to compare the financial
impacts of different TSLs on small
electric motor manufacturers. 74 FR
61464–69. The INPV is the sum of all
net cash flows discounted by the
industry’s cost of capital (discount rate).
DOE used the GRIM to compare the
INPV of the base case (no new energy
conservation standards) to that of each
TSL for the small electric motor
industry. To evaluate the range of cashflow impacts on this industry, DOE
constructed different scenarios using
two different assumptions for
manufacturer markups: (1) The
preservation-of-return-on-investedcapital scenario, and (2) the
preservation-of-operating-profit
(absolute dollars) scenario. These two
scenarios correspond to the range of
anticipated market responses, and
results in a unique set of cash flows and
corresponding industry value at each
TSL. These steps allowed DOE to
compare the potential impacts on the
industry as a function of TSLs in the
GRIM. The difference in INPV between
the base case and the standards case is
an estimate of the economic impacts
Capacitor-run (3⁄4 hp 4 poles)
4
4
5
6
6
7
7
7
1.7
1.7
2.5
4.1
4.1
17.7
17.7
17.7
that implementing that standard level
would have on the entire industry. For
today’s notice, DOE continues to use the
above methodology and presents the
results in the subsequent sections. See
chapter 12 of the TSD for additional
information on MIA methodology and
results.
Payback period
years
CSCR level
2
3
3
4
3
8
3
7
1.5
2.7
2.7
3.3
2.7
35.5
2.7
6.0
year after the new energy conservation
standards become effective, is the same
as in the base case. This scenario is
called the preservation-of-return-oninvested-capital scenario. To assess the
higher end of the range of potential
impacts for the small electric motor
industry, DOE considered a scenario in
which the absolute dollar amount of the
industry’s base-case operating profit
(earnings before interest and taxes)
remains the same and does not increase
in the year after implementation of the
standards. This scenario is called the
preservation-of-operating-profit
(absolute dollars) scenario. For both
markup scenarios, DOE considered the
same reference shipment scenario found
in the NIA. Table VI.21 through Table
VI.24 show the range of changes in
INPV that DOE estimates could result
from the TSLs DOE considered for this
final rule. The results present the
impacts of energy conservation
standards for polyphase small electric
motors separately and combine the
impacts for CSIR and CSCR small
electric motors. The tables also present
the equipment conversion costs and
capital conversion costs that the
industry would incur at each TSL.
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
Using the two different markup
scenarios, DOE estimated the impact of
new standards for small electric motors
on the INPV of the small electric motors
manufacturing industry. The impact
consists of the difference between the
INPV in the base case and the INPV in
the standards case. INPV is the primary
metric used in the MIA, and represents
one measure of the fair value of the
industry in today’s dollars. DOE
calculated the INPV by summing all of
the annual net cash flows, discounted at
the small electric motor industry’s cost
of capital or discount rate.
To assess the lower end of the range
of potential impacts for the small
electric motor industry, DOE considered
a scenario where a manufacturer’s
percentage return on working capital
and capital invested in fixed assets (net
plant, property, and equipment), the
TABLE VI.21—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Preservation of return on invested capital markup scenario]
INPV ...........................................
Change in INPV .........................
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Equipment Conversion Costs ....
Capital Conversion Costs ..........
Total Investment Required ........
Trial standard level
Base
case
Units
2009$ millions ...........................
2009$ millions ...........................
% ...............................................
2009$ millions ...........................
2009$ millions ...........................
2009$ millions ...........................
1
70
............
............
............
............
............
69
(0.19)
(0.27)
1.9
0.4
2.3
2
3
4
4b
5
6
70
0.34
0.49
1.9
0.7
2.6
71
0.98
1.41
1.9
0.7
2.7
70
0.57
0.82
3.8
0.9
4.7
73
3.37
4.84
3.8
1.9
5.7
82
12.62
18.15
3.8
7.1
10.9
88
18.54
26.65
5.8
10.7
16.5
7
165
95.27
136.95
7.7
37.3
45.0
TABLE VI.22—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Preservation of operating profit markup scenario]
INPV ................................
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17:37 Mar 08, 2010
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Base
case
Units
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70
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3
4
4b
5
6
7
68
68
67
66
64
58
52
0
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.22—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS—Continued
[Preservation of operating profit markup scenario]
Change in INPV ..............
Equipment Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion Costs
Total Investment Required.
Trial standard level
Base
case
Units
1
2
3
4
4b
5
6
7
2009$ millions .................
% .....................................
2009$ millions .................
................
................
................
(1.49)
(2.15)
1.9
(1.86)
(2.67)
1.9
(2.26)
(3.25)
1.9
(3.58)
(5.15)
3.8
(5.43)
(7.80)
3.8
(11.80)
(16.96)
3.8
(17.51)
(25.16)
5.8
(69.47)
(99.85)
7.7
2009$ millions .................
2009$ millions .................
................
................
0.4
2.3
0.7
2.6
0.7
2.7
0.9
4.7
1.9
5.7
7.1
10.9
10.7
16.5
37.3
45.0
TABLE VI.23—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR CSIR AND CSCR SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Preservation of return on invested capital markup scenario]
INPV ................................
Change in INPV ..............
Equipment Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion Costs
Total Investment Required.
Trial standard level
Base
case
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009$ millions .................
2009$ millions .................
% .....................................
2009$ millions .................
279
................
................
................
287
8.40
3.01
16.7
289
9.46
3.39
16.7
295
16.27
5.83
24.9
311
32.15
11.52
25.3
308
28.48
10.20
24.9
466
186.60
66.87
33.7
297
18.40
6.59
24.9
325
46.35
16.61
25.3
2009$ millions .................
2009$ millions .................
................
................
9.4
26.1
10.5
27.2
16.5
41.4
21.7
47.0
18.3
43.2
79.9
113.6
20.7
45.5
29.0
54.3
Units
TABLE VI.24—MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS FOR CSIR AND CSCR SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
[Preservation of operating profit markup scenario]
INPV ................................
Change in INPV ..............
Equipment Conversion
Costs.
Capital Conversion Costs
Total Investment Required.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2009$ millions .................
2009$ millions .................
% .....................................
2009$ millions .................
279
................
................
................
259
(19.99)
(7.16)
16.7
258
(20.79)
(7.45)
16.7
247
(32.42)
(11.62)
24.9
236
(43.15)
(15.46)
25.3
239
(40.09)
(14.37)
24.9
127
(152.05)
(54.49)
33.7
245
(34.05)
(12.20)
24.9
226
(52.58)
(18.84)
25.3
2009$ millions .................
2009$ millions .................
................
................
9.4
26.1
10.5
27.2
16.5
41.4
21.7
47.0
18.3
43.2
79.9
113.6
20.7
45.5
29.0
54.3
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Polyphase Small Electric Motors
DOE estimated the impacts on INPV
at TSL 1 to range from $0.19 million to
¥$1.49 million, or a change in INPV of
¥0.27 percent to ¥2.15 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 13.3 percent, to $4.84
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 1 represents an
efficiency increase of 2 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. The
majority of manufacturers have motors
that meet this efficiency level. All
manufacturers that were interviewed
stated that their existing motor designs
allow for simple modifications that
would require minor capital and
equipment conversion costs to reach
TSL 1. A possible modification analyzed
in the engineering analysis is a roughly
7 percent increase in the number of
laminations within both spaceconstrained and non space-constrained
motors. Manufacturers indicated that
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modifications like increased
laminations could be made within
existing baseline motor designs without
significantly altering their size. In
addition, these minor design changes
will not raise the production costs
beyond the cost of most motors sold
today, resulting in minimal impacts on
industry value.
DOE estimated the impacts in INPV at
TSL 2 to range from $0.34 million to
¥$1.86 million, or a change in INPV of
0.49 percent to 2.67 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 15.6 percent, to $4.71
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 2 represents an
efficiency increase of 4 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Similar
to TSL 1, at TSL 2 manufacturers stated
that their existing motor designs allow
for simple modifications that would
entail only minor capital and equipment
conversion costs. A possible
modification analyzed in the
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engineering analysis increases the
number of laminations by
approximately 15 percent from the
baseline within both space-constrained
and non space-constrained motors.
Manufacturers indicated that these
modifications could be made within
baseline motor designs without
significantly changing their size. At TSL
2, the production costs of standards
compliant motors do not increase
enough to significantly affect INPV.
At TSL 3, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $0.98 million to
¥$2.26 million, or a change in INPV of
1.41 percent to ¥3.25 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 16.4 percent, to $4.67
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 3 represents an
efficiency increase of 6 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Similar
to TSL 1 and TSL 2, at TSL 3
manufacturers stated that their existing
motor designs would still allow for
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simple modifications that would not
require significant capital and
equipment conversion costs. In the
engineering analysis, standards
compliant motors that meet the
efficiency requirements at TSL 3 have
17-percent increase in the number of
laminations compared to the baseline
design within both space-constrained
and non space-constrained motors.
These changes do not result in
significant impacts on INPV.
At TSL 4, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $0.57 million to
¥$3.58 million, or a change in INPV of
0.82 percent to ¥5.15 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 27.7 percent, to $4.03
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 4 represents an
efficiency increase of 7 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Most
manufacturers that were interviewed are
able to reach this level without
significant redesigns. At TSL 4, a
possible design pathway for
manufacturers could be to increase the
number of laminations by
approximately 20 percent over the
baseline designs within spaceconstrained and non space-constrained
motors.
At TSL 4b, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $3.37 million to
¥$5.43 million, or a change in INPV of
4.84 percent to ¥7.80 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 36.0 percent, to $3.57
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 4b represents an
efficiency increase of 8 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Most
manufacturers that were interviewed are
able to reach this level without
significant redesigns. A possible
redesign for non space-constrained
motors would include increasing the
number of laminations by 47 percent
relative to the baseline motor design.
For space-constrained motors, redesigns
could require up to 20 percent more
laminations of better grade electrical
steel. However, manufacturers reported
that efficiency levels similar to TSL 4b
would be the highest achievable before
required efficiencies could significantly
change motor designs and production
equipment. However, setting a level
higher than TSL 4b may require
significant motor size changes.
At TSL 5, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $12.62 million to
¥$11.80 million, or a change in INPV
of 18.15 percent to ¥16.96 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
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by approximately 77.7 percent, to $1.24
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 5 represents an
efficiency increase of 10 percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors. TSL
5 is equivalent to the current NEMA
premium level that manufacturers
produce for medium-sized electric
motors.
Although some manufacturers
reported having existing small electric
motors that reach TSL 5, the designs
necessary are more complex than their
cost optimized designs at lower TSLs. A
possible redesign for non spaceconstrained motors would include
adding up to 49 percent more
laminations relative to the baseline
motor design and improving the grade
of steel. For space-constrained motors,
redesigns could require up to 114
percent more laminations of a thinner
and higher grade of steel. Manufacturers
are concerned that redesigns at TSL 5
could increase the size of the motors if
they do not currently have motors that
reach the NEMA premium efficiency
levels. A shift to larger motors could be
detrimental to sales due to the inability
of OEMs to use standards-compliant
motors as direct replacements in some
applications.
According to manufacturers, at TSL 5,
the industry would incur significantly
higher capital and equipment
conversion costs in comparison to the
lower efficiency levels analyzed. DOE
estimates that the capital and equipment
conversion costs required to make the
redesigns at TSL 5 would be
approximately four times the amount
required to meet TSL 1. At TSL 5
manufacturers would also be required to
shift their entire production of baseline
motors to higher priced and higher
efficiency motors, making their current
cost-optimized designs obsolete. These
higher production costs could have a
greater impact on the industry value if
operating profit does not increase.
Manufacturers indicated that setting
energy conservation standards at TSL 5
could cause some manufacturers to
consider exiting the small electric motor
market because of the lack of resources,
potentially unjustifiable investments for
a small segment of their business, and
the possibility of lower revenues if
OEMs will not accept large motors.
At TSL 6, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $18.54 million to
¥$17.51 million, or a change in INPV
of 26.65 percent to ¥25.16 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 117.2 percent, to
¥$0.96 million, compared to the basecase value of $5.58 million in the year
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leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 6 represents an
efficiency increase of 12 percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors.
Currently, no small electric motors are
rated above the equivalent to the NEMA
premium standard (TSL 5). Possible
redesigns for space-constrained motors
at TSL 6 include the use of copper
rotors and a 114-percent increase in the
number of laminations of a thinner and
higher grade of steel. These changes
would cause manufacturers to incur
significant capital and equipment
conversion costs to redesign their spaceconstrained motors due to the lack of
experience in using copper.
According to manufacturers, copper
tooling is significantly costlier and not
currently used by any manufacturers for
the production of small electric motors.
If copper rotor designs are required,
manufacturers with in-house die-casting
capabilities will need completely new
machinery to process copper.
Manufacturers that outsource rotor
production would pay higher prices for
their rotor designs. In both cases, TSL 6
results in significant equipment
conversion costs to modify current
manufacturing processes in addition to
redesigning motors to use copper in the
applications of general purpose small
electric motors. Largely due to the
significant changes to space-constrained
motors, DOE estimates that at TSL 6
manufacturers would incur close to
seven times the total conversion costs
required at TSL 1 (a total of
approximately $16.5 million). However,
for non space-constrained motors,
manufacturers are able to redesign their
existing motors without the use of
copper rotors by using twice the number
of laminations that are contained in the
baseline design. Therefore, for non
space-constrained motors the impacts at
TSL 6 are significantly less because
manufacturers can maintain existing
manufacturing processes without the
potentially significant changes
associated with copper rotors. At TSL 6
the impacts for non space-constrained
motors are mainly due to higher motor
costs and the possible decrease in
profitability if manufacturers are unable
to fully pass through their higher
production costs.
At TSL 7, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $95.27 million to
¥$69.47 million, or a change in INPV
of 136.95 percent to ¥99.85 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 342.4 percent, to
¥$13.52 million, compared to the basecase value of $5.58 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 7 represents an
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efficiency increase of 14 percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors.
Currently, the market does not have
any motors that reach TSL 7. At TSL 7,
space-constrained motor designs may
require the use of copper rotors and
premium electrical steels, such as the
Hiperco steel used in DOE’s design.
There is some uncertainty about the
magnitude of the impacts on the
industry of using Hiperco steel.
Manufacturers were unsure about the
required conversion costs to reach TSL
7 because of the unproven properties
and applicability of the technology in
the general purpose motors covered by
this rulemaking.
Significant R&D for both
manufacturing processes and motor
redesigns would be necessary to
understand the applications of premium
steels to general purpose small electric
motors. According to manufacturers,
requiring this technology could cause
some competitors to exit the small
electric motor market. If manufacturers’
concerns of having to use both copper
rotors and new steels materialize,
manufacturers could be significantly
impacted. For non space-constrained
motors, DOE estimates that
manufacturers would require the use of
copper rotors but not premium steels. If
manufacturers are required to redesign
non-spaced constrained motors with
copper, the total conversion costs for the
industry increases greatly because all
motors require substantially different
production equipment. Finally, the
production costs of motors that meet
TSL 7 could be up to 18 times higher
than the production costs of baseline
motors. The cost to manufacture
standards-compliant motors could have
a significant impact on the industry if
operating profit does not increase with
production costs.
Capacitor-Start, Induction Run and
Capacitor-Start, Capacitor-Run Small
Electric Motors
At TSL 1, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $8.4 million to
–$19.99 million, or a change in INPV of
3.01 percent to –7.16 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 41.3 percent, to $13.13
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 1 represents an
efficiency increase of 19-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 10percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. At TSL 1 for CSIR motors, DOE
estimates manufacturers would need to
increase the number of laminations for
space-constrained motors by
approximately 33 percent and use a
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thinner and higher grade of steel. For
non space-constrained CSIR motors,
manufacturers could increase
laminations by approximately 61
percent with the use of a better grade of
electric steel. For space-constrained
CSCR motors, manufacturers could
increase laminations by ten percent and
use a higher grade of steel. For non
space-constrained CSCR motors,
manufacturers could increase
laminations by approximately 37
percent. For both CSIR and CSCR
motors, the additional stack length
needed to reach TSL 1 is still within the
tolerances of many manufacturers’
existing motors. DOE estimates that
these changes would cause the industry
to incur capital and equipment
conversion costs of approximately $26.1
million to reach TSL 1. While TSL 1
would increase production costs, the
cost increases are not enough to severely
affect INPV under the scenarios
analyzed.
At TSL 2, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $9.46 million to
¥$20.79 million, or a change in INPV
of 3.39 percent to –7.45 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 43.5 percent, to $12.65
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 2 represents an
efficiency increase of 19 percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. For CSIR motors, the same
changes to meet TSL 1 are necessary for
TSL 2. For CSCR motors, TSL 2
represents what manufacturers would
consider a NEMA Premium equivalent
efficiency level. The changes required
for CSCR motors could cause
manufacturers to incur additional
capital conversion costs to
accommodate the required increase in
laminations. Imposing standards at TSL
2 would increase production costs for
both CSIR and CSCR motors, but the
cost increases for both types of motors
are not enough to severely affect INPV.
At TSL 3, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $16.27 million to
–$32.42 million, or a change in INPV of
5.83 percent to –11.62 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 66.5 percent, to $7.51
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 3 represents an
efficiency increase of 23 percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13
percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. At TSL 3, space-constrained
CSIR motors could require redesigns
that use copper rotors. Using copper
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rotors for space-constrained CSIR
motors could cause manufacturers to
incur approximately $41.4 million in
capital and equipment conversion costs,
largely to purchase the equipment
necessary to produce these redesigned
motors.
As with polyphase motors,
manufacturers reported that copper
rotor tooling is significantly costlier
than traditional aluminum rotor tooling
and not currently used by the industry
for the production of small electric
motors. Similarly, in-house die-casting
capabilities would need completely new
machinery to process copper and the
alternative of outsourcing rotor
production would greatly increase
material costs. For non spaceconstrained CSIR motors, manufacturers
could redesign motors by increasing the
number of laminations without the use
of copper rotors, resulting in
significantly smaller impacts. At TSL 3,
the impacts for non-space-constrained
motors are mainly due to higher motor
material costs and a possible decline in
profit margins. TSL 3 represents what
manufacturers would consider a NEMA
Premium equivalent efficiency level for
CSCR motors. The required efficiencies
for space-constrained CSCR motors
could be met by manufacturers by
increasing the number of laminations by
15 percent and using higher steel
grades. The required efficiencies for
non-spaced constrained CSCR motors
could be met by increasing the number
of laminations by 53 percent. Because
the redesigns for CSCR motors are less
substantial, the impacts at TSL 3 are
driven largely by the required CSIR
efficiencies.
At TSL 4, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $32.15 million to
–$43.15 million, or a change in INPV of
11.52 percent to ¥15.46 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 77.5 percent, to $5.02
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 4 represents an
efficiency increase of 27 percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 15
percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. TSL 4 currently represents a
NEMA premium equivalent level for
CSIR motors. Possible redesigns for both
CSIR and CSCR motors to meet TSL 4
involve both increasing the number of
laminations as well as using higher
grades of steel.
For space-constrained CSIR motors,
redesigns could require the use of
copper rotors. Because of these
redesigns, standards-compliant motors
at TSL 4 have significantly higher costs
than manufacturers’ baseline motors.
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These changes increase the engineering
and capital resources that must be
employed, especially for CSCR motors.
The negative impacts at TSL 4 are
driven by the conversion costs that
potentially require some single-phase
motors to use copper rotors, and the
higher production costs of standardscompliant motors.
At TSL 5, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $28.48 million to
–$40.09 million, or a change in INPV of
10.20 percent to –14.37 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 70.2 percent, to $6.66
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 5 represents an
efficiency increase of 27 percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13
percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. TSL 5 represents NEMA
premium equivalent efficiency levels for
both CSIR and CSCR motors.
At TSL 5, space-constrained CSIR
motors could require the use of copper
rotors. The required efficiencies for non
space-constrained CSIR motors could be
met by manufacturers by increasing the
number of laminations by 82 percent
and using a higher grade of steel. The
required efficiencies for spaceconstrained CSCR motors could be met
by manufacturers by increasing the
number of laminations by 15 percent
and using higher steel grades. The
required efficiencies for non-spaced
constrained CSCR motors could be met
by increasing the number of laminations
by 53 percent.
Although manufacturers reported that
meeting TSL 5 is feasible, the
production costs of motors at TSL 5
increase substantially and require
approximately $43.2 million in total
capital and equipment conversion costs.
The negative impacts at TSL 5 are
driven by these conversion costs that
potentially require some CSIR motors to
use copper rotors, and the impacts on
profitability if the higher production
costs of standards-compliant motors
cannot be fully passed through to
customers.
At TSL 6, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $186.60 million
to –$152.05 million, or a change in
INPV of 66.87 percent to –54.49 percent.
At this level, industry cash flow
decreases by approximately 205.8
percent, to –$22.67 million, compared
to the base-case value of $22.38 million
in the year leading up to the energy
conservation standards. TSL 6
represents an efficiency increase of 33
percent over the baseline for CSIR
motors and 23 percent over the baseline
for CSCR motors.
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Currently, the market does not have
any CSIR and CSCR motors that reach
TSL 6. TSL 6 represents the max-tech
efficiency level for both CSIR and CSCR
motors. In addition to the possibility of
using copper rotors for both CSIR and
CSCR motors, at TSL 6, spaceconstrained motor designs could require
premium steels, such as Hiperco. There
is uncertainty about the impact of
Hiperco steel on the industry, primarily
due to uncertainty about capital
conversion costs required to use a new
type of steel. Significant R&D in
manufacturing processes would be
necessary to understand the
applications of these premium steels in
general purpose small electric motors.
Because all space-constrained motors
could require copper rotors and
premium steels and all non-spaced
constrained motors could require
copper rotors, the capital conversion
costs are a significant driver of INPV at
TSL 6. Finally, the production costs of
motors that meet TSL 6 can be as high
as 13 times the production cost of
baseline motors, which impact
profitability if the higher production
costs cannot be fully passed through to
OEMs. Manufacturers indicated that the
potentially large impacts on the
industry at TSL 6 could force some
manufacturers to exit the small electric
motor market because of the lack of
resources and what could be an
unjustifiable investment for a small
segment of their total business.
At TSL 7, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $18.40 million to
–$34.05 million, or a change in INPV of
6.59 percent to –12.20 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 74.7 percent, to $5.66
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 7 represents an
efficiency increase of 33 percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13
percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors.
TSL 7 corresponds to the NEMA
premium equivalent efficiency for CSCR
motors. The required efficiencies for
space-constrained CSCR motors could
be met by manufacturers by increasing
the number of laminations by 15 percent
and using higher steel grades. The
required efficiencies for non spaceconstrained CSCR motors could be met
by increasing the number of laminations
by 53 percent. Consequently, the
industry is not severely impacted by the
CSCR efficiency requirements at TSL 7
because these design changes could be
met with relatively minor changes to
baseline designs.
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However, there are no CSIR motors
currently on the market that reach TSL
7 (the max-tech efficiency level for
CSIR). At TSL 7 space-constrained CSIR
redesigns could require the use of both
copper rotors and premium steels while
non space-constrained CSIR motors
could require only copper rotors.
Manufacturers continue to have the
same concerns about copper rotors and
premium steels for CSIR motors as with
other efficiency levels that may require
these technologies. The impacts on
INPV from CSIR motors are mainly
associated with estimated shipments of
non-space constrained CSIR motors and
how investments exclude premium
steels in motor redesigns. The INPV
impacts for all single-phase motors at
TSL 7 are less severe than at TSL 6 due
to a change in balance of shipments
between CSIR and CSCR motors. At TSL
7, the possible high cost of CSIR motors
would likely cause customers to migrate
to CSCR motors.
In its analysis, DOE assumed that
manufacturers would not invest in all
the alternative technologies for CSIR
motors in light of the expected
migration to CSCR motors. At TSL 7, the
industry is impacted (though to a lesser
extent than at TSL 6) by the high
conversion costs for CSIR motors, for
which manufacturers must invest even
though these are a small portion of total
shipments after standards. However,
because the total volume of single-phase
motors does not decline with the shift
from CSIR to CSCR motors, the higher
revenues from standards-compliant
CSCR motors mitigate redesign costs for
CSIR motors.
At TSL 8, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $46.35 million to
–$52.58 million, or a change in INPV of
13.07 percent to –16.17 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 92.1 percent, to $1.77
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.38 million in the year
leading up to the compliance date for
the energy conservation standards. TSL
8 represents an efficiency increase of 33
percent over the baseline for CSIR
motors and 20 percent over the baseline
for CSCR motors.
As with TSL 7, CSIR motors are at the
max-tech efficiency level at TSL 8.
However, the impacts on INPV are
worse at TSL 7 because the efficiency
requirements for CSCR motors increase.
At TSL 8, both space-constrained and
non space-constrained CSCR motors
could require the use of copper, which
increases the total conversion costs for
the industry. Manufacturers continue to
share the same concerns about the
copper and premium steel investments
for CSCR and CSIR motors as at TSL 6
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and TSL 7. Like TSL 7, TSL 8 causes a
migration of CSIR motors to CSCR
motors. DOE assumed that
manufacturers would fully incur the
required conversion costs for CSCR, but
partially for CSIR motors, due to the low
market share of CSIR motors after the
energy conservation standards must be
met. After these standards apply, the
shift to CSCR motors increases total
industry revenue and helps to mitigate
impacts related to capital conversion
costs necessary for CSIR motors to use
alternative technologies.
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
b. Impacts on Employment
As discussed in the NOPR and for
today’s final rule, DOE does not believe
that standards would materially alter
the domestic employment levels of the
small electric motors industry under
any of the TSLs considered for today’s
final rule. 74 FR 61469. Even if DOE set
new efficiency levels high enough to
cause some manufacturers to exit the
small electric motor market, the direct
employment impact would likely be
minimal. Id. Most covered small motors
are manufactured on shared production
lines and in factories that also produce
a substantial number of other products.
If a manufacturer decided to exit the
market, these employees would likely
be used in some other capacity,
reducing the number of headcount
reductions. These manufacturers
estimated that no production jobs would
be lost due to energy conservation
standards, but rather the engineering
departments could be reduced by up to
one engineer per dropped product line.
The employment impacts calculated
by DOE are independent of the
employment impacts from the broader
U.S. economy, which are documented
in chapter 15 of the TSD accompanying
this notice and discussed in section
VI.C.3. Based on available data and its
analyses, DOE does not believe that the
effects of today’s rule would
substantially impact employment levels
in the small electric motor industry. For
further information and results on direct
employment see chapter 12 of the TSD.
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
As detailed in the NOPR, no change
in the fundamental assembly of small
electric motors would be required by
DOE adoption of any of the TSLs
considered for today’s rule, and none of
the TSLs would require replacing or
adding to existing facilities to
manufacture. 74 FR 61469–70. For
today’s final rule, DOE continues to
believe manufacturers can use any
available excess capacity to mitigate any
possible capacity constraint as a result
of energy conservation standards. In
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DOE’s view, it is more likely that some
motors would be discontinued due to
lower demand after the promulgation of
a standard. For further explanation of
the impacts on manufacturing capacity
for small electric motors, see chapter 12
of the TSD.
d. Impacts on Subgroups of
Manufacturers
For the reasons stated in the NOPR,
including its conclusion that no small
manufacturers produced small electric
motors, DOE did not analyze
manufacturer subgroups in the small
electric motor industry. 74 FR 61470.
DOE did not receive further information
or comment that would otherwise
change its views.
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
While any one regulation may not
impose a significant burden on
manufacturers, the combined effects of
several regulations may have serious
consequences for some manufacturers,
groups of manufacturers, or an entire
industry. Assessing the impact of a
single regulation may overlook this
cumulative regulatory burden.
DOE recognizes that each regulation
can significantly affect manufacturers’
financial operations. Multiple
regulations affecting the same
manufacturer can reduce manufacturers’
profits and may cause manufacturers to
exit from the market. DOE did not
identify any additional DOE regulations
that would affect the manufacturers of
small electric motors apart from the
ones discussed in the NOPR. 74 FR
61470. These included other DOE
regulations and international standards.
DOE recognizes that each regulation has
the potential to impact manufacturers’
financial operations. For further
information about the cumulative
regulatory burden on the small electric
motors industry, see chapter 12 of the
TSD.
3. National Net Present Value and Net
National Employment
The NPV analysis estimates the
cumulative benefits or costs to the
Nation, discounted to 2009$ in the year
2010, of particular standard levels
relative to a base case of no new
standard. In accordance with OMB
guidelines on regulatory analysis (OMB
Circular A–4, section E, September 17,
2003), DOE estimated NPVs using both
a 7 percent and 3 percent real discount
rate. The 7 percent rate is an estimate of
the average before tax rate of return to
private capital in the U.S. economy.
This rate reflects the returns to real
estate and small business capital as well
as corporate capital. DOE used this
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discount rate to approximate the
opportunity cost of capital in the private
sector, since recent OMB analysis has
found the average rate of return to
capital to be near this rate. DOE also
used the 3 percent discount rate to
capture the potential effects of standards
on private consumption (e.g., through
higher prices for equipment and
purchase of reduced amounts of energy).
This rate represents the rate at which
society discounts future consumption
flows to their present value. This rate
can be approximated by the real rate of
return on long-term Government debt
(e.g., the yield on Treasury notes minus
the annual rate of change in the
Consumer Price Index), which has
averaged about 3 percent on a pre-tax
basis for the last 30 years.
The NPV was calculated using DOE’s
reference shipments forecast, which is
based on the AEO 2010 Early Release
forecast. In this scenario, shipments
display an elasticity of –0.25, which
allows for a market shift to enclosed
motors when open motors become more
expensive than their enclosed
equivalents. DOE used its calibrated
reference model for the market
dynamics of CSIR and CSCR motors.
DOE’s reference scenario also includes
100 percent of the cost or benefit from
changes in reactive power charges,
which are faced either by electricity
customers or by utilities (which then
include them in electricity rates). Table
VI.25 and Table VI.26 show the
estimated NPV at each of the TSLs for
polyphase and capacitor-start small
electric motors. For polyphase motors,
the NPV is positive at TSLs 1 through
5 using a 7-percent discount rate, and is
positive for TSLs 1 through 6 using a 3percent discount rate. For capacitor-start
motors, NPV is positive at all TSLs
except TSL 6. The latter TSL
corresponds to max-tech efficiency
levels for both CSIR and CSCR motors,
which have high installed costs and
negative lifecycle cost savings. See TSD
Chapter 10 for more detailed NPV
results.
Across motors, for certain TSLs, DOE
estimates there will be a net national
savings or positive NPV from the
standard, even though a majority of
motor customers may face life-cycle cost
increases. Life-cycle cost increases
result from the large number of small
electric motors installed in applications
with very low operating hours. The
consumers of these motors cannot
recover the increased equipment costs
through decreased electricity costs, thus
experiencing life-cycle cost increases.
On the other hand, a substantial
minority of motors run at nearly all
hours of the day and thus obtain
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relatively large savings from the
standard.
Table VI.25 and Table VI.26 show
DOE’s estimates of net present value for
each TSL DOE considered for this final
rule.
TABLE VI.25—CUMULATIVE NET
PRESENT VALUE FOR POLYPHASE
SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (IMPACT
FOR EQUIPMENT SOLD FROM 2015
TO 2045)
Trial standard
level
1
2
3
4
TABLE VI.25—CUMULATIVE NET
PRESENT VALUE FOR POLYPHASE
SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (IMPACT
FOR EQUIPMENT SOLD FROM 2015
TO 2045)—Continued
Net present value
billion 2009$
7% Discount rate
........................
........................
........................
........................
Net present value
billion 2009$
Trial standard
level
3% Discount rate
0.10
0.22
0.41
0.42
0.26
0.55
1.01
1.05
10929
7% Discount rate
4b ......................
5 ........................
6 ........................
7 ........................
3% Discount rate
0.54
0.16
¥0.22
¥6.82
1.44
0.77
0.06
¥12.65
TABLE VI.26—CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE FOR CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (IMPACT FOR
EQUIPMENT SOLD FROM 2015 TO 2045)
Net present value
billion 2009$
Trial standard level
7% Discount
rate
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................................
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
As discussed in section VI.C.1.b
above, DOE estimated LCC and payback
periods under a sensitivity case using
data on motor shipments distributions
provided by OEMs via a survey
conducted by NEMA. Under this
sensitivity case lifecycle costs increase
for polyphase and CSCR motor users,
but decrease for CSIR motor users. DOE
estimates there is a net increase in
national benefits from the standards
promulgated in today’s rule using the
new information provided by NEMA,
with energy savings increasing from
2.20 to 2.68 quads, and NPV increasing
from $12.52 to $19.75 billion, using a 3
percent discount rate.
DOE also analyzed the effect of
NEMA’s assertion that 95 percent of
motors are used in space-constrained
applications. However, at the capacitorstart efficiency levels in today’s rule,
DOE estimates that 97 percent of the
CSIR market will migrate to CSCR
motors assuming only 20 percent of the
market is space-constrained. Therefore,
increasing the assumption of the
fraction of CSIR motors that is spaceconstrained to 95-percent only affects
the 3-percent of the CSIR market that
had not already migrated to CSCR
motors under DOE’s reference case, and
has little effect on the estimates of
national energy savings.
Chapter 10 of the TSD has details on
the national impacts for the reference
case, while the national impacts for
these sensitivity cases are presented in
appendix 10A.
DOE also estimated for each TSL the
indirect employment impact of
standards—the impact on the economy
in general—in addition to considering
the direct employment impacts on
manufacturers of products covered in
this rulemaking as discussed in section
VI.C.2.b. DOE expects the net monetary
savings from standards to be redirected
3.01
3.05
2.83
1.97
2.08
¥9.29
4.74
3.03
3% Discount
rate
7.03
7.13
6.87
5.35
5.57
¥16.23
11.08
8.14
to other forms of economic activity.
DOE also expects these shifts in
spending and economic activity to affect
the demand for labor. As shown in
Table VI.27 and Table VI.28, DOE
estimates that net indirect employment
impacts from energy conservation
standards for small electric motors
would be positive but very small
relative to total national employment.
Specifically, DOE’s analysis indicates
that the number of jobs that may be
generated by 2045 through indirect
impacts ranges from 47 to 6,300 for the
TSLs for polyphase small motors, and
from 1,100 to 18,700 for the TSLs for
capacitor-start small motors. These
increases would likely be sufficient to
offset fully any adverse impacts on
employment that might occur in the
small electric motors industry. For
details on the employment impact
analysis methods and results, see TSD
Chapter 14.
TABLE VI.27—NET INCREASE IN NATIONAL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL
STANDARDS LEVELS
2015
thousands
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
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2020
thousands
0.047
0.084
0.151
0.190
E:\FR\FM\09MRR2.SGM
0.136
0.254
0.463
0.539
09MRR2
2030
thousands
0.222
0.418
0.761
0.874
2045
thousands
0.299
0.565
1.030
1.178
10930
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.27—NET INCREASE IN NATIONAL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL
STANDARDS LEVELS—Continued
2015
thousands
Trial standard level
4b .....................................................................................................................................
5 .......................................................................................................................................
6 .......................................................................................................................................
7 .......................................................................................................................................
2020
thousands
0.356
0.661
0.901
2.349
0.915
1.347
1.679
3.621
2030
thousands
1.446
2.016
2.448
4.921
2045
thousands
1.942
2.668
3.219
6.343
TABLE VI.28—NET INCREASE IN NATIONAL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR
TRIAL STANDARDS LEVELS
2015
thousands
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
.......................................................................................................................................
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
Equipment
As explained in sections III.D.1.d and
V.B.4 of the NOPR, users of these
motors will not face a reduction in small
electric motor utility or performance
under the levels examined under this
rulemaking. DOE has not received any
additional information suggesting that
such a reduction would occur.
Accordingly, DOE has concluded that
no lessening of the utility or
performance of the small electric motors
under consideration in this rulemaking
would result from adoption of any of the
TSLs considered for this final rule. 74
FR 61419, 61476.
5. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
As discussed in the November 2009
NOPR, 74 FR 61419, 61476, and in
section III.D.1.e of this final rule, DOE
considers any lessening of competition
that is likely to result from standards.
The Attorney General determines the
impact, if any, of any such lessening of
competition.
The DOJ concluded that the standards
DOE proposed for small electric motors
in the November 2009 NOPR could
increase costs for consumers who need
to replace either a polyphase or
capacitor-start small electric motor in
existing equipment. This is because
compliance with these standards may
require manufacturers to increase the
size of their motors such that the larger
motors may not fit into existing spaceconstrained equipment. In turn, owners
with a broken motor may need to
replace the entire piece of equipment or
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1.113
1.119
1.577
2.287
2.248
8.042
1.776
2.322
attempt to have the motor repaired,
which could be costly. DOJ requested
that DOE consider this impact, and, as
warranted, consider exempting from the
standard the manufacture and marketing
of certain replacement small electric
motors for a limited period of time.
(DOJ, No. 29 at pp. 1–2) DOJ does not
believe the proposed standard would
likely lead to a lessening of competition.
For its final rule on energy
conservations standards for small
electric motors, DOE considered the
issue raised by DOJ. DOE believes it
adequately accounts for the impacts on
those consumers that purchase motors
for space-constrained applications by
developing motors with higher costs for
what it estimates as space-constrained.
Furthermore, DOE does not believe it is
necessary to exempt motors
manufactured to replace motors in
space-constrained applications because
these motors are not marketed as ‘‘for
replacement purposes,’’ enforcing such a
standard could be problematic. In
addition, an exemption for replacement
motors would also apply to motors in
non-space constrained applications
potentially significantly reducing energy
savings of this rule. Lastly, DOE believes
that the five-year period before the
effective date will give customers or
OEMs sufficient time to account for any
changes to motor sizes or to stockpile
replacement motors for their
applications.
The Attorney General’s response is
reprinted at the end of this rule.
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2020
thousands
3.645
3.674
4.512
5.561
5.529
12.159
5.795
9.591
2030
thousands
5.249
5.293
6.398
7.716
7.686
15.350
8.340
13.880
2045
thousands
7.062
7.123
8.557
10.236
10.204
19.569
11.216
18.701
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Energy
Improving the energy efficiency of
small electric motors, where
economically justified, would likely
improve the security of the Nation’s
energy system by reducing overall
demand for energy, thus reducing the
Nation’s reliance on foreign sources of
energy. Reduced electricity demand
might also improve the reliability of the
electricity system, particularly during
peak-load periods. As a measure of this
reduced demand, DOE expects the
energy savings from today’s standards to
eliminate the need for approximately
2.16 gigawatts (GW) of generating
capacity by 2045 and in 2045, to save
an amount of electricity greater than
that generated by eight 250 megawatt
power plants.
Enhanced energy efficiency also
produces environmental benefits in the
form of reduced emissions of air
pollutants and greenhouse gases
associated with energy production.
Table VI.29 and Table VI.30 provide
DOE’s estimate of cumulative CO2, NOX,
and Hg emissions reductions that would
result from the TSLs considered in this
rulemaking. The expected energy
savings from these standards may also
reduce the cost of maintaining
nationwide emissions standards and
constraints. In the environmental
assessment (EA; chapter 15 of the TSD
accompanying this notice), DOE reports
estimated annual changes in CO2, NOX,
and Hg emissions attributable to each
TSL. The cumulative CO2, NOX, and Hg
emissions reductions from polyphase
motors range up to 23.2 Mt, 16.9 kt, and
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
0.12 ton, respectively, and up to 121.7
Mt, 88.9 kt, and 0.47 ton, respectively,
from single-phase motors.
TABLE VI.29—POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS: CUMULATIVE CO2 AND OTHER EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
[Cumulative reductions for products sold from 2015 to 2045]
Emissions reductions
Trial standard level
CO2
Mt
1 ...............................................................................................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................................................................................
4 ...............................................................................................................................................................
4b .............................................................................................................................................................
5 ...............................................................................................................................................................
6 ...............................................................................................................................................................
7 ...............................................................................................................................................................
Hg
tons
NOX
kt
2.3
4.6
8.3
9.3
15.4
18.3
19.5
21.2
1.6
3.3
5.9
6.7
11.0
13.1
13.9
15.2
0.013
0.025
0.046
0.051
0.085
0.101
0.108
0.117
TABLE VI.30—CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS: CUMULATIVE CO2 AND OTHER EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
[Cumulative reductions for products sold from 2015 to 2045]
Emissions reductions
Trial standard level
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CO2
Mt
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
...............................................................................................................................................................
As noted in section IV.L of this final
rule, DOE does not report SO2 emissions
reductions from power plants because
DOE is uncertain that an energy
conservation standard would affect the
overall level of U.S. SO2 emissions due
to emissions caps. DOE also did not
include NOX emissions reduction from
power plants in states subject to CAIR
because an energy conservation
standard would likely not affect the
overall level of NOX emissions in those
states due to the emissions caps
mandated by CAIR.
In the NOPR, DOE also investigated
and considered the potential monetary
benefit of any reduced CO2, SO2, NOX,
and Hg emissions that could result from
the TSLs it considered. 74 FR 61448–53,
61477–84. To estimate the likely
monetary benefits of CO2 emission
reductions associated with the potential
standards, DOE valued the potential
global benefits resulting from such
reductions at the interim values of $5,
$10, $20, $34 and $57 per metric ton in
2007 (in 2008$), and also valued the
domestic benefits at approximately $1
per metric ton. 74 FR 61452. For today’s
final rule DOE has updated its analysis
to reflect the outcome of the most recent
interagency process regarding the social
cost of carbon dioxide emissions (SCC).
See section IV.M for a full discussion.
The four values of CO2 emissions
reductions resulting from that process
are $4.70/ton (the average value from a
distribution that uses a 5% discount
NOX
kt
62.9
63.5
71.7
80.5
81.0
88.5
96.8
111.4
Hg
tons
45.1
45.5
51.4
57.7
58.1
63.5
69.5
80.0
0.265
0.267
0.302
0.339
0.341
0.373
0.408
0.469
rate), $21.40/ton (the average value from
a distribution that uses a 3% discount
rate), $35.10/ton (the average value from
a distribution that uses a 2.5% discount
rate), and $65/ton (the 95th percentile
value from a distribution that uses a 3%
discount rate). These values are
expressed in 2007$ and correspond to
the value of emission reductions in
2010; the values for later years are
higher due to increasing damages as the
magnitude of climate change increases.
Table VI.31 and Table VI.32 present the
global values of emissions reductions at
each TSL. Domestic values are
calculated as a range from 7% to 23%
of the global values, and these results
are presented in Table VI.33 and Table
VI.34.
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
TABLE VI.31—ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT RATE
Estimated cumulative CO2 emission reductions,
Mt
TSL
1 .............................................................
2 .............................................................
3 .............................................................
4 .............................................................
4b ...........................................................
5 .............................................................
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Global value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$
5% discount rate,
average*
3% discount rate,
average*
8
16
28
32
52
62
40
81
146
165
272
323
2.3
4.6
8.3
9.3
15.4
18.3
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2.5% discount
rate, average*
68
138
248
280
462
550
09MRR2
3% discount rate,
95th percentile*
122
248
445
502
828
986
10932
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.31—ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT
RATE—Continued
Estimated cumulative CO2 emission reductions,
Mt
TSL
6 .............................................................
7 .............................................................
Global value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$
5% discount rate,
average*
3% discount rate,
average*
66
72
344
375
19.5
21.2
2.5% discount
rate, average*
3% discount rate,
95th percentile*
585
638
1049
1144
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the social cost of emissions and whether it is an average value or drawn from a
different part of the distribution. Values presented in the table are based on escalating 2007$ to 2009$ for consistency with other values presented in this notice, and incorporate the escalation of the SCC with each year.
TABLE VI.32—ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT RATE
Estimated cumulative CO2 emission reductions,
Mt
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
.............................................................
Global value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$
5% discount rate,
average*
3% discount rate,
average*
216
218
246
277
278
304
333
383
1118
1129
1275
1432
1441
1574
1722
1982
62.9
63.5
71.7
80.5
81.0
88.5
96.8
111.4
2.5% discount
rate, average*
3% discount rate,
95th percentile*
1900
1918
2167
2432
2448
2674
2926
3368
3410
3444
3890
4367
4394
4801
5253
6046
* Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the social cost of emissions and whether it is an average value or drawn from a
different part of the distribution. Values presented in the table are based on escalating 2007$ to 2009$ for consistency with other values presented in this notice, and incorporate the escalation of the SCC with each year.
TABLE VI.33—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT RATE
Domestic value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$ *
TSL
5% discount rate,
average**
3% discount rate,
average**
0.5–1.8
1.1–3.6
2.0–6.4
2.2–7.3
3.7–12
4.3–14.3
4.6–15.2
5.0–16.6
2.8–9.2
5.7–18.7
10.2–33.5
11.5–37.9
19.0–62.5
22.6–74.4
24.1–79.1
26.3–86.3
1 ...............................................................................................
2 ...............................................................................................
3 ...............................................................................................
4 ...............................................................................................
4b .............................................................................................
5 ...............................................................................................
6 ...............................................................................................
7 ...............................................................................................
2.5% discount
rate, average**
3% discount rate,
95th percentile**
4.8–15.7
9.7–31.8
17.4–57.1
19.6–64.4
32.3–106.3
38.5–126.5
41.0–134.6
44.7–146.7
8.5–28.1
17.3–57.0
31.1–102.3
35.1–115.5
58.0–190.5
69.0–226.8
73.4–241.2
80.1–263.0
* Domestic values are presented as a range between 7% and 23% of the global values.
** Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the social cost of emissions and whether it is an average value or drawn from a
different part of the distribution. Values presented in the table are based on escalating 2007$ to 2009$ for consistency with other values presented in this notice, and incorporate the escalation of the SCC with each year.
TABLE VI.34—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT RATE
Domestic value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$ *
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
5% discount rate,
average**
3% discount rate,
average**
15–50
15–50
17–57
19–64
19–64
21–70
23–77
78–257
79–260
89–293
100–329
101–331
110–362
121–396
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
...............................................................................................
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2.5% discount
rate, average**
133–437
134–441
152–498
170–559
171–563
187–615
205–673
09MRR2
3% discount rate,
95th percentile**
239–784
241–792
272–895
306–1004
308–1011
336–1104
368–1208
10933
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.34—ESTIMATES OF DOMESTIC PRESENT VALUE OF CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2015–2045
UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT SCC-SCENARIO-CONSISTENT DISCOUNT RATE—Continued
Domestic value of CO2 emission reductions, million 2009$ *
TSL
5% discount rate,
average**
3% discount rate,
average**
27–88
139–456
8 ...............................................................................................
2.5% discount
rate, average**
3% discount rate,
95th percentile**
236–775
423–1391
* Domestic values are presented as a range between 7% and 23% of the global values.
** Columns are labeled by the discount rate used to calculate the social cost of emissions and whether it is an average value or drawn from a
different part of the distribution. Values presented in the table are based on escalating 2007$ to 2009$ for consistency with other values presented in this notice, and incorporate the escalation of the SCC with each year.
DOE is well aware that scientific and
economic knowledge about the
contribution of CO2 and other GHG
emissions to changes in the future
global climate and the potential
resulting damages to the world economy
continues to evolve rapidly. Thus, any
value placed in this rulemaking on
reducing CO2 emissions is subject to
change. DOE, together with other
Federal agencies, will continue to
review various methodologies for
estimating the monetary value of
reductions in CO2 and other GHG
emissions. This ongoing review will
consider the comments on this subject
that are part of the public record for this
and other rulemakings, as well as other
methodological assumptions and issues.
However, consistent with DOE’s legal
obligations, and taking into account the
uncertainty involved with this
particular issue, DOE has included in
this rule the most recent values and
analyses resulting from the ongoing
interagency review process.
DOE also estimated a range for the
cumulative monetary value of the
economic benefits associated with NOX
and Hg emissions reductions
anticipated to result from amended
standards for SEMs. The dollar per ton
values that DOE used are discussed in
section IV.M of this final rule. Table
VI.35 through Table VI.38 present the
estimates calculated using seven percent
and three percent discount rates,
respectively.
TABLE VI.35—ESTIMATES OF VALUE OF REDUCTIONS OF NOX AND HG EMISSIONS UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC
MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT A SEVEN PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE
Cumulative NOX
emission reductions, kt
Polyphase TSL
1 ..............................................................
2 ..............................................................
3 ..............................................................
4 ..............................................................
4b ............................................................
5 ..............................................................
6 ..............................................................
7 ..............................................................
1.62
3.29
5.91
6.67
11.00
13.09
13.93
15.19
Value of NOX emission reductions,
million 2009$
0.11
0.23
0.42
0.47
0.78
0.92
0.98
1.07
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
Cumulative Hg
emission reductions, t
1.18 .............................................
2.39 .............................................
4.29 .............................................
4.84 .............................................
7.99 .............................................
9.51 .............................................
10.11 ...........................................
11.03 ...........................................
0.013
0.025
0.046
0.051
0.085
0.101
0.108
0.117
Value of Hg
emission
reductions,
million 2009$
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
0.12.
0.25.
0.45.
0.51.
0.84.
1.00.
1.06.
1.16.
TABLE VI.36—ESTIMATES OF VALUE OF REDUCTIONS OF NOX AND HG EMISSIONS UNDER POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC
MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT A THREE PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE
Cumulative NOX
emission reductions, kt
Polyphase
TSL
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
1 ..............................................................
2 ..............................................................
3 ..............................................................
4 ..............................................................
4b ............................................................
5 ..............................................................
6 ..............................................................
7 ..............................................................
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3.29
5.91
6.67
11.00
13.09
13.93
15.19
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Value of NOX emission reductions,
million 2009$
0.34
0.68
1.22
1.38
2.28
2.71
2.89
3.15
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
Cumulative Hg
emission reductions, t
3.46 .............................................
7.01 .............................................
12.59 ...........................................
14.21 ...........................................
23.45 ...........................................
27.90 ...........................................
29.68 ...........................................
32.37 ...........................................
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0.013
0.025
0.046
0.051
0.085
0.101
0.108
0.117
09MRR2
Value of Hg
emission
reductions,
million 2009$
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.05
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
0.24.
0.48.
0.87.
0.98.
1.62.
1.93.
2.05.
2.24.
10934
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.37—ESTIMATES OF VALUE OF REDUCTIONS OF NOX AND HG EMISSIONS UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL
ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT A SEVEN PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE
Cumulative NOX
emission reductions, kt
Capacitor-start TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
45.10
45.54
51.44
57.74
58.11
63.48
69.47
79.95
Value of NOX emission reductions,
million 2009$
3.50
3.53
3.99
4.48
4.51
4.93
5.39
6.20
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
35.97
36.23
41.03
46.05
46.34
50.63
55.40
63.76
Cumulative Hg
emission reductions, t
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
...........................................
0.265
0.267
0.302
0.339
0.341
0.373
0.408
0.469
Value of Hg
emission
reductions,
million 2009$
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2.79.
2.82.
3.18.
3.57.
3.60.
3.93.
4.30.
4.95.
TABLE VI.38—ESTIMATES OF VALUE OF REDUCTIONS OF NOX AND Hg EMISSIONS UNDER CAPACITOR-START SMALL
ELECTRIC MOTOR TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS AT A THREE PERCENT DISCOUNT RATE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Value of NOX emission
reductions
million 2009$
Cumulative NOX
emission reductions (kt)
Capacitor-start TSL
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
..............................................................
45.10
45.54
51.44
57.74
58.11
63.48
69.47
79.95
The NPV of the monetized benefits
associated with emissions reductions
can be viewed as a complement to the
NPV of the consumer savings calculated
for each TSL considered in this
rulemaking. Table VI.40 through Table
VI.43 present the NPV values for small
electric motors that would result if DOE
were to add the estimates of the
potential benefits resulting from
reduced CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions in
each of four valuation scenarios to the
NPV of consumer savings calculated for
each TSL considered in this rulemaking,
at both a seven percent and three
percent discount rate. The CO2 values
used in the columns of each table
correspond with the four scenarios for
Cumulative Hg
emission reductions (t)
9.60 to 98.70 ...........................................
9.69 to 99.66 ...........................................
10.95 to 112.58 .......................................
12.29 to 126.37 .......................................
12.37 to 127.17 .......................................
13.52 to 138.94 .......................................
14.79 to 152.03 .......................................
17.02 to 174.97 .......................................
the valuation of CO2 emission
reductions presented in section IV.M.
Table VI.39 shows an example of the
calculation of the NPV including
benefits from emissions reductions for
the case of TSL 7 for capacitor-start
motors and TSL 4b for polyphase
motors.
Although adding the value of
consumer savings to the values of
emission reductions provides a valuable
perspective, the following should be
considered: (1) The national consumer
savings are domestic U.S. consumer
monetary savings found in market
transactions, while the values of
emissions reductions are based on
estimates of marginal social costs,
0.265
0.267
0.302
0.339
0.341
0.373
0.408
0.469
Value of Hg
emission
reductions
million 2009$
0.12
0.12
0.13
0.15
0.15
0.17
0.18
0.21
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5.22.
5.27.
5.95.
6.68.
6.72.
7.34.
8.04.
9.25.
which, in the case of CO2, are based on
a global value. (2) The assessments of
consumer savings and emission-related
benefits are performed with different
computer models, leading to different
time frames for analysis. For small
electric motors, the present value of
national consumer savings is measured
for the period in which units shipped
from 2015 to 2045 continue to operate.
However, the time frames of the benefits
associated with the emission reductions
differ. For example, the value of CO2
emissions reductions reflects the
present value of all future climaterelated impacts due to emitting a ton of
carbon dioxide in that year, out to 2300.
TABLE VI.39—ESTIMATE OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS TO PRESENT VALUE OF GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND Hg EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT TSL 7 FOR CAPACITOR-START MOTORS
AND TSL 4b FOR POLYPHASE MOTORS (2015–2045)
Present value
billion 2009$
Category
Discount
rate
(percent)
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Benefits
Operating Cost Savings .................................................................................................................................................
CO2 Monetized Value ....................................................................................................................................................
(at $4.7/Metric Ton) *
CO2 Monetized Value ....................................................................................................................................................
(at $21.4/Metric Ton) *
CO2 Monetized Value ....................................................................................................................................................
(at $35.1/Metric Ton) *
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17.1
......................
0.38
......................
1.99
......................
3.39
7
3
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10935
TABLE VI.39—ESTIMATE OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS TO PRESENT VALUE OF GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND Hg EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT TSL 7 FOR CAPACITOR-START MOTORS
AND TSL 4b FOR POLYPHASE MOTORS (2015–2045)—Continued
Category
Present value
billion 2009$
CO2 Monetized Value ....................................................................................................................................................
(at $64.9/Metric Ton) *
NOX Monetized Value ...................................................................................................................................................
(at $2,437/Metric Ton)
......................
6.08
......................
0.03
0.10
......................
0.003
0.005
9.7
19.2
Hg Monetized Value ......................................................................................................................................................
(at $17 million/Metric Ton)
Total Monetary Benefits ** .............................................................................................................................................
Discount
rate
(percent)
3
7
3
7
3
7
3
Costs
Total Monetary Costs ....................................................................................................................................................
2.4
4.5
7
3
7.3
14.6
7
3
Net Benefits/Costs
Including CO2, NOX, and Hg ** ......................................................................................................................................
* These values represent global values (in 2007$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of $4.7,
$21.4, and $35.1 per ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5%, 3%, and 2.5% discount rates, respectively. The value of
$64.9 per ton represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3% discount rate. See section IV.M for details.
** Total Monetary Benefits for both the 3% and 7% cases utilize the central estimate of social cost of CO2 emissions calculated at a 3% discount rate (averaged across three IAMs), which is equal to $21.4/ton in 2010 (in 2007$).
TABLE VI.40—ESTIMATES OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 7% DISCOUNT RATE) TO NET
PRESENT VALUE OF LOW, CENTRAL, AND HIGH-END GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND Hg EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT ALL TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (2015–2045)
Consumer NPV at 7% discount rate added with:
TSL
CO2 value of $4.7/metric
ton CO2* and low values
for NOX and Hg **
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $21.4/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $35.1/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $64.9/metric
ton CO2* and high values
for NOX and Hg ****
billion 2009$
0.11
0.24
0.44
0.45
0.59
0.22
(0.15)
(6.75)
0.14
0.30
0.56
0.59
0.82
0.49
0.13
(6.44)
0.17
0.36
0.66
0.70
1.01
0.72
0.37
(6.18)
0.22
0.47
0.86
0.93
1.38
1.16
0.84
(5.66)
1 ...............................................
2 ...............................................
3 ...............................................
4 ...............................................
4b .............................................
5 ...............................................
6 ...............................................
7 ...............................................
* These label values per ton represent the global negative externalities of CO2 in 2010, in 2007$. Their present values have been calculated
with scenario-consistent discount rates. See section IV.M for a full discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Values correspond to $447 per ton of NOX emissions and $0.764 million per ton of Hg emissions.
*** Medium Values correspond to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions and $17.2 million per ton of Hg emissions.
**** High Values correspond to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions and $33.7 million per ton of Hg emissions.
TABLE VI.41—ESTIMATES OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE) TO NET
PRESENT VALUE OF LOW, CENTRAL, AND HIGH-END GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND HG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT ALL TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (2015–2045)
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Consumer NPV at 3% discount rate added with:
TSL
CO2 value of $4.7/metric
ton CO2* and low values
for NOX and Hg **
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $21.4/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $35.1/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $64.9/metric
ton CO2* and high values
for NOX and Hg ****
billion 2009$
0.27
0.57
1.04
1.08
1.49
0.30
0.64
1.16
1.22
1.73
0.33
0.69
1.27
1.34
1.92
0.39
0.81
1.47
1.57
2.29
1 ...............................................
2 ...............................................
3 ...............................................
4 ...............................................
4b .............................................
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.41—ESTIMATES OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE) TO NET
PRESENT VALUE OF LOW, CENTRAL, AND HIGH-END GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND HG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT ALL TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (2015–2045)—
Continued
Consumer NPV at 3% discount rate added with:
TSL
CO2 value of $4.7/metric
ton CO2* and low values
for NOX and Hg **
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $21.4/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $35.1/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $64.9/metric
ton CO2* and high values
for NOX and Hg ****
billion 2009$
0.83
0.13
(12.57)
1.11
0.42
(12.26)
1.34
0.66
(11.99)
1.79
1.14
(11.47)
5 ...............................................
6 ...............................................
7 ...............................................
* These label values per ton represent the global negative externalities of CO2 in 2010, in 2007$. Their present values have been calculated
with scenario-consistent discount rates. See section IV.M for a full discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Values correspond to $447 per ton of NOX emissions and $0.764 million per ton of Hg emissions.
*** Medium Values correspond to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions and $17.2 million per ton of Hg emissions.
**** High Values correspond to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions and $33.7 million per ton of Hg emissions.
TABLE VI.42—ESTIMATES OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 7% DISCOUNT RATE) TO NET
PRESENT VALUE OF LOW, CENTRAL, AND HIGH-END GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND HG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT ALL TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (2015–
2045)
Consumer NPV at 7% discount rate added with:
TSL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CO2 value of $4.7/metric
ton CO2* and low values
for NOX and Hg **
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $21.4/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $35.1/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $64.9/metric
ton CO2* and high values
for NOX and Hg ****
billion 2009$
3.23
3.27
3.08
2.25
2.36
(8.98)
5.08
3.42
4.15
4.20
4.13
3.43
3.55
(7.69)
6.50
5.05
4.93
4.99
5.02
4.43
4.56
(6.59)
7.70
6.44
6.46
6.53
6.76
6.39
6.52
(4.43)
10.05
9.14
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
TABLE VI.43—ESTIMATES OF ADDING NET PRESENT VALUE OF CONSUMER SAVINGS (AT 3% DISCOUNT RATE) TO NET
PRESENT VALUE OF LOW, CENTRAL, AND HIGH-END GLOBAL MONETIZED BENEFITS FROM CO2, NOX, AND HG EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AT ALL TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS FOR CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS (2015–
2045)
Consumer NPV at 3% discount rate added with:
TSL
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CO2 value of $4.7/metric
ton CO2* and low values
for NOX and Hg **
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $21.4/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 value of $35.1/metric
ton CO2* and medium
values for NOX and Hg ***
billion 2009$
CO2 Value of $64.9/metric ton CO2* and high values for NOX and Hg ****
billion 2009$
7.26
7.36
7.13
5.64
5.86
(15.91)
11.43
8.54
8.21
8.32
8.21
6.85
7.08
(14.58)
12.89
10.22
8.99
9.11
9.10
7.86
8.09
(13.48)
14.09
11.61
10.54
10.68
10.88
9.85
10.10
(11.28)
16.49
14.37
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
...............................................
* These label values per ton represent the global negative externalities of CO2 in 2010, in 2007$. Their present values have been calculated
with scenario-consistent discount rates. See section IV.M for a full discussion of the derivation of these values.
** Low Values correspond to $447 per ton of NOX emissions and $0.764 million per ton of Hg emissions.
*** Medium Values correspond to $2,519 per ton of NOX emissions and $17.2 million per ton of Hg emissions.
**** High Values correspond to $4,591 per ton of NOX emissions and $33.7 million per ton of Hg emissions.
7. Other Factors
In developing today’s standards, the
Secretary took into consideration the
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electric motors with existing standards
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polyphase general purpose motors; (2)
the impact, on consumers who need to
use CSIR motors, of substantially higher
prices for such motors caused by some
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
potential standard levels; and (3) the
potential for standards to reduce
reactive power, and thereby cause lower
costs for supplying electricity.
D. Conclusion
EPCA contains criteria for prescribing
new or amended energy conservation
standards. DOE must prescribe
standards only for those small electric
motors for which DOE: (1) Has
determined that standards would be
technologically feasible and
economically justified and would result
in significant energy savings, and (2) has
prescribed test procedures. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B), 6316(a), and 6317(b))
Moreover, any standards for this
equipment must achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(A) and 6316(a)) In
determining whether a standard is
economically justified, DOE must
determine whether the benefits of the
standard exceed its burdens when
considering the seven factors discussed
in section III.D.1. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 6316(a))
In evaluating standards for small
electric motors, DOE analyzed
polyphase and capacitor-start motors
independently of one another, and
considered eight TSLs for polyphase
equipment and eight TSLs for capacitorstart equipment. For reasons explained
in the NOPR, DOE combined CSCR and
CSIR motors into a single set of TSLs for
capacitor-start motors, with each TSL
being a combination of CSIR and CSCR
efficiency levels. 74 FR 61484.
In selecting today’s energy
conservation standards for small electric
motors, DOE started by examining the
TSL with the highest energy savings,
and determined whether that TSL was
economically justified. Upon finding a
TSL not to be justified, DOE considered
sequentially lower TSLs until it
identified the highest level that was
economically justified. (Such level
would necessarily also be
technologically feasible and result in a
significant conservation of energy
because all of the TSLs considered for
this final rule meet those criteria.) DOE
notes that for polyphase small electric
motors, the TSL with the highest energy
savings is also the max-tech efficiency
10937
level, but, as explained in the NOPR, the
same is not true for capacitor-start
motors. 74 FR 61484.
Table VI.44 and Table VI.45
summarize the results of DOE’s
quantitative analysis, based on the
assumptions and methodology
discussed above, of each TSL DOE
considered for this rule. They will aid
the reader in the discussion of costs and
benefits of each TSL. In some cases, the
tables present a range of results. The
range of values reported for industry
impacts represents the results for the
two markup scenarios—preservation-ofreturn-on-invested-capital and
preservation-of-operating-profit
(absolute dollars)—that DOE used to
estimate manufacturer impacts.
In addition to the quantitative results,
DOE also considers other burdens and
benefits that affect economic
justification. These include pending
standards for medium motors as a result
of EISA 2007.
1. Polyphase Small Electric Motors
Table VI.44 presents a summary of the
quantitative analysis results for each
TSL for polyphase small electric motors.
TABLE VI.44—SUMMARY OF POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS ANALYTICAL RESULTS *
Trial standard level
Criteria
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
TSL 1
Primary Energy Savings
(quads) ...................................
@ 7% Discount Rate .........
@ 3% Discount Rate .........
Generation Capacity Reduction (GW) ..................
NPV (2009$ billions)
@ 7% discount ...................
@ 3% discount ...................
Industry Impacts
Change in INPV (2009$
millions) ..........................
Change in INPV (%) ..........
Cumulative Emission Reduction
CO2 (Mt) .............................
Value of CO2 reductions
(2009$ millions) ** ...........
NOX (kt) .............................
Value of NOX reductions at
7% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Value of NOX reductions at
3% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Hg (t) ..................................
Value of Hg reductions at
7% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Value of Hg reductions at
3% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Life-cycle Cost of Rep. Product
Class
Customers with increase in
LCC (%) ..........................
Customers with savings in
LCC (%) ..........................
Mean LCC (2009$) ............
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ...........................
VerDate Nov<24>2008
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TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 4b
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
0.05
0.01
0.03
0.09
0.02
0.05
0.17
0.04
0.09
0.19
0.05
0.10
0.29
0.07
0.15
0.34
0.09
0.18
0.37
0.09
0.19
0.37
0.09
0.20
0.05
0.09
0.16
0.19
0.31
0.36
0.39
0.42
0.10
0.26
0.22
0.55
0.41
1.01
0.42
1.05
0.54
1.44
0.16
0.77
(0.22)
(0.06)
(6.82)
(12.65)
(0.19)–(1.49)
(0.27)–(2.15)
0.34–(1.86)
0.49–(2.67)
0.98–(2.26)
1.41–(3.25)
0.57–(3.58)
0.82–(5.15)
3.37–(5.43)
4.84–(7.80)
12.62–(11.80)
18.15–(16.96)
18.54–(17.51)
26.65–(25.16)
95.27–(69.47)
136.95–(99.85)
2.3
4.6
8.3
9.3
15.4
18.3
19.5
21.2
8–122
1.6
16–248
3.3
28–445
5.9
32–502
6.7
52–828
11.0
62–986
13.1
66–1049
13.9
72–1144
15.2
0.11–1.18
0.23–2.39
0.42–4.29
0.47–4.84
0.78–7.99
0.92–9.51
0.98–10.11
1.07–11.03
0.34–3.46
0.013
0.68–7.01
0.025
1.22–12.59
0.046
1.38–14.21
0.051
2.28–23.45
0.085
2.71–27.90
0.101
2.89–29.68
0.108
3.15–32.37
0.117
0.00–0.12
0.01–0.25
0.01–0.45
0.01–0.51
0.02–0.84
0.02–1.00
0.02–1.06
0.03–1.16
0.01–0.24
0.01–0.48
0.02–0.87
0.02–0.98
0.04–1.62
0.04–1.93
0.05–2.05
0.05–2.24
46.8
41.3
40.6
45.1
51.2
65.8
77.4
96.8
53.2
1,261
58.7
1,249
59.4
1,237
54.9
1,240
48.8
1,240
34.3
1,291
22.6
1,339
3.2
2,095
8
19
31
29
28
(23)
(71)
(827)
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Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE VI.44—SUMMARY OF POLYPHASE SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS ANALYTICAL RESULTS *—Continued
Trial standard level
Criteria
TSL 1
Life-cycle Cost of all Product
Classes, Weighted by Shipments
Customers with increase in
LCC (%) ..........................
Customers with savings in
LCC (%) ..........................
Mean LCC (2009$) ............
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ...........................
Payback Period (years)
Average ..............................
Median ...............................
Employment Impact
Indirect Impacts (2045)
(jobs, ‘000) ......................
TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 4b
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
44.7
39.2
38.7
42.7
49.2
63.2
74.8
96.2
55.3
1,314
69.8
1,302
61.3
1,287
57.3
1,289
50.8
1,288
36.8
1,337
25.2
1,383
3.8
2,131
9
22
36
34
36
(13)
(60)
(808)
21.1
6.7
17.3
5.4
17.2
5.3
19.8
6.2
24.1
7.4
40.2
11.7
52.6
16.1
234.6
48.7
0.30
0.57
1.03
1.18
1.94
2.67
3.22
6.34
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
* Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
** Range of global values for the SCC of emissions reductions, representing a range of scenarios as described in section IV.M and summarized in Table VI.31, with
discount rates ranging from 2.5% to 5%.
First, DOE considered TSL 7, the most
efficient level for polyphase small
electric motors. TSL 7 would save an
estimated 0.37 quad of energy through
2045, an amount DOE considers
significant. Discounted at seven percent,
the projected energy savings through
2045 would be 0.09 quad. For the
Nation as a whole, DOE projects that
TSL 7 would result in a net decrease of
$6.82 billion in NPV, using a discount
rate of seven percent. The emissions
reductions at TSL 7 are 21.2 Mt of CO2,
up to 15.2 kt of NOX, and up to 0.117
ton of Hg. These reductions have a value
of up to $1,144 million for CO2 (using
the 95th percentile value at a 3 percent
discount rate), and a value of up to
$11.0 million for NOX, and $1.16
million for Hg at a discount rate of
seven percent. At the central value for
the social cost of carbon, the estimated
monetized benefit of CO2 emissions
reductions is $375 million at a discount
rate of three percent. DOE also estimates
that at TSL 7, total electric generating
capacity in 2030 will decrease
compared to the base case by 0.42 GW.
At TSL 7, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing equipment in 2015
will experience an increase in LCC of
$827 compared to the baseline. DOE
estimates the fraction of customers
experiencing LCC increases will be 96.8
percent. The median PBP for the average
polyphase small electric motor customer
at TSL 7, 48.7 years, is projected to be
substantially longer than the mean
lifetime of the equipment. When all
polyphase product classes are
considered and weighted by shipments,
DOE estimates that small electric motor
customers experience slightly lower
increases in LCC of $808.
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
Jkt 220001
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $69.5
million to an increase of $95.3 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 7, DOE recognizes the
risk of very large negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 7 could result in a net loss of 99.9
percent in INPV to the polyphase small
motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their polyphase small electric motors.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 7, the Secretary has
reached the following conclusion: At
TSL 7, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), would be outweighed
by the economic burden of a net cost to
the Nation (over 30 years), the economic
burden to customers (as indicated by the
large increase in life-cycle cost) and the
potentially large reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has concluded that trial standard level
7 is not economically justified.
DOE then considered TSL 6, which
would likely save an estimated 0.37
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Sfmt 4700
quad of energy through 2045, an amount
DOE considers significant. Discounted
at seven percent, the projected energy
savings through 2045 would be 0.09
quad. For the Nation as a whole, DOE
projects that TSL 6 would result in a net
decrease of $220 million in NPV, using
a discount rate of seven percent. The
estimated emissions reductions at TSL 6
are 19.5 Mt of CO2, up to 13.9 kt of NOX,
and up to 0.108 ton of Hg. These
reductions have a value of up to $1,049
million for CO2 (using the 95th
percentile value at a 3 percent discount
rate), and a value of up to $10.1 million
for NOX, and $1.06 million for Hg, at a
discount rate of seven percent. At the
central value for the social cost of
carbon, the estimated monetized benefit
of CO2 emissions reductions is $344
million at a discount rate of three
percent. Total electric generating
capacity in 2030 is estimated to
decrease compared to the base case by
0.39 GW under TSL 6.
At TSL 6, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing equipment in 2015
will experience an increase in LCC of
$71 compared to the baseline. DOE
estimates the fraction of customers
experiencing LCC increases will be
seven percent. The median PBP for the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer at TSL 6, 16.1 years, is
projected to be substantially longer than
the mean lifetime of the equipment.
When all polyphase product classes are
considered and weighted by shipments,
DOE estimates that small electric motor
customers experience slightly lower
increases in LCC of $60.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $17.5
million to an increase of $18.5 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
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assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 6, DOE recognizes the
risk of very large negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 6 could result in a net loss of 25.2
percent in INPV to the polyphase small
motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their polyphase small electric motors.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 6, the Secretary has
reached the following conclusion: At
TSL 6, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), would be outweighed
by the economic burden of a net cost to
the Nation (over 30 years), the economic
burden to consumers (as indicated by
the increased life-cycle cost), and the
potential reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has concluded that trial standard level
6 is not economically justified.
DOE then considered TSL 5, which
provides for polyphase small electric
motors the maximum efficiency level
that the analysis showed to have
positive NPV for the Nation. TSL 5
would likely save an estimated 0.34
quad of energy through 2045, an amount
DOE considers significant. Discounted
at seven percent, the projected energy
savings through 2045 would be 0.09
quad. For the Nation as a whole, DOE
projects that TSL 5 would result in a net
increase of $160 million in NPV, using
a discount rate of seven percent. The
estimated emissions reductions at TSL 5
are 18.3 Mt of CO2, up to 13.1 kt of NOX,
and up to 0.101 ton of Hg. These
reductions have a value of up to $986
million for CO2 (using the 95th
percentile value at a 3 percent discount
rate), and a value of up to $9.5 million
for NOX, and $1.0 million for Hg, at a
discount rate of seven percent. At the
central value for the social cost of
carbon, the estimated benefit of CO2
emissions reductions is $323 million at
a discount rate of three percent. Total
electric generating capacity in 2030 is
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
Jkt 220001
estimated to decrease compared to the
base case by 0.36 GW under TSL 5.
At TSL 5, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing the equipment in
2015 will experience an increase in LCC
of $23 compared to the baseline
representative unit for analysis (1 hp, 4
pole polyphase motor). This
corresponds to approximately a 1.8
percent increase in average LCC. Based
on this analysis, DOE estimates that
approximately 66 percent of customers
would experience LCC increases and
that the median PBP would be 11.7
years, which is longer than the mean
lifetime of the equipment. However, in
consideration of the relatively small
percentage increase in LCC at TSL 5,
DOE examined sensitivity analyses to
assess the likelihood of consumers in
fact experiencing significant LCC
increases. These included calculating a
shipment-weighted LCC savings.
At TSL 5, when accounting for the
full-range of horsepowers and pole
configurations of polyphase motors, the
average LCC increase is reduced to $13.
This corresponds to approximately 63
percent of customers experiencing an
increase in LCC, with the remaining 37
percent, those with greater operating
hours, realizing net savings.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $11.8
million to an increase of $12.6 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 5, DOE recognizes the
risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. If
the high end of the range of impacts is
reached, TSL 5 could result in a net loss
of 17.0 percent in INPV to the polyphase
small motor industry.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 5, the Secretary has
reached the following conclusion: At
TSL 5, the benefits of energy savings
and emissions reductions (both in
physical reductions and the monetized
value of those reductions) would be
outweighed by the economic burden to
consumers (as indicated by the
increased life-cycle cost). Consequently,
the Secretary has concluded that trial
standard level 5 is not economically
justified.
DOE then considered TSL 4b, which
is at an efficiency level added to the
analysis in response to comments
presented on the NOPR. TSL 4b would
likely save an estimated 0.29 quad of
energy through 2045, an amount DOE
considers significant. Discounted at
seven percent, the projected energy
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10939
savings through 2045 would be 0.07
quad. For the Nation as a whole, DOE
projects that TSL 4b would result in a
net increase of $540 million in NPV,
using a discount rate of seven percent.
The estimated emissions reductions at
TSL 4b are 15.4 Mt of CO2, up to 11.0
kt of NOX, and up to 0.085 ton of Hg.
These reductions have a value of up to
$828 million for CO2 (using the 95th
percentile value at a 3 percent discount
rate), and a value of up to $8.0 million
for NOX, and $0.8 million for Hg, at a
discount rate of seven percent. At the
central value for the social cost of
carbon, the estimated benefit of CO2
emissions reductions is $272 million at
a discount rate of three percent. Total
electric generating capacity in 2030 is
estimated to decrease compared to the
base case by 0.31 GW under TSL 4b.
At TSL 4b, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing the equipment in
2015 will experience a reduction in LCC
of $28 compared to the baseline
representative unit for analysis (1 hp, 4
pole polyphase motor). This
corresponds to approximately a 2.2
percent reduction in average LCC. Based
on this analysis, DOE estimates that
approximately 51 percent of customers
would experience LCC increases and
that the median PBP would be 7.4 years,
which is only slightly longer than the
mean lifetime of the equipment.
However, in consideration of the
relatively small percentage decrease in
LCC at TSL 4b, DOE examined
sensitivity analyses to assess the
likelihood of consumers experiencing
significant LCC increases. These
included calculating a shipmentweighted LCC savings.
At TSL 4b, when accounting for the
full-range of horsepowers and pole
configurations of polyphase motors, the
average LCC savings increase to $36.
This corresponds to approximately 49
percent of customers experiencing an
increase in LCC, with the remaining 51
percent realizing net savings.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $5.4
million to an increase of $3.4 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 4b, DOE recognizes
the risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. If
the high end of the range of impacts is
reached, TSL 4b could result in a net
loss of 7.8 percent in INPV to the
polyphase small motor industry.
Trial standard level 4b has other
advantages that are not directly
economic. This level sets standards for
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many product classes that are
approximately harmonized with the
efficiency level for medium motors to be
implemented in 2010 which requires
four-pole, 1-hp polyphase motors to be
at least 85.5% efficient. Since many—
but not all—three digit frame size
polyphase motors of this size can also
be used in two-digit frames with
minimal adjustment, DOE believes that
there is a benefit to harmonizing small
polyphase and medium polyphase
motor efficiency standards in this size
range. In particular, DOE does not
believe the design changes necessary for
TSL 4b would force all manufacturers to
significantly redesign all of their
polyphase small electric motors or their
production processes. Therefore, DOE
believes manufacturers are not at a
significant risk to experience highly
negative impacts.
After considering the analysis and the
benefits and burdens of trial standard
level 4b, the Secretary has reached the
following conclusion: Trial standard
level 4b offers the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified, and will result
in significant conservation of energy.
The Secretary has reached the
conclusion that the benefits of energy
savings and emissions reductions (both
in physical reductions and the
monetized value of those reductions)
outweigh the potential reduction in
INPV for manufacturers and the
economic burden on consumers, which
is relatively small on average. Therefore,
DOE today adopts the energy
conservation standards for polyphase
small electric motors at trial standard
level 4b.
2. Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors
Table VI.45 presents a summary of the
quantitative analysis results for each
TSL for capacitor-start small electric
motors.
TABLE VI.45—SUMMARY OF CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS ANALYTICAL RESULTS *
Trial standard level
Criteria
TSL 1
Change in INPV (%) ..........
mstockstill on DSKH9S0YB1PROD with RULES2
Primary Energy Savings
(quads) ...................................
@ 7% Discount Rate .........
@ 3% Discount Rate .........
Generation Capacity Reduction
(GW) ......................................
NPV (2009$ billions)
@ 7% discount ...................
@ 3% discount ...................
Industry Impacts
Change in INPV (2009$
millions) ..........................
Cumulative Emission Reduction
CO2 (Mt) .............................
Value of CO2 reductions
(2009$ millions) ** ...........
NOX (kt) .............................
Value of NOX reductions at
7% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Value of NOX reductions at
3% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Hg (t) ..................................
Value of Hg reductions at
7% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Value of Hg reductions at
3% discount rate (2009$
millions) ..........................
Life-cycle Cost of Rep. Product
Class
CSIR
Customers with increase in LCC (%) ..
Customers with savings in LCC (%) .......
Mean LCC (2009$) .....
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ....................
CSCR
Customers with increase in LCC (%) ..
Customers with savings in LCC (%) .......
Mean LCC (2009$) .....
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ....................
CSIR migrating to CSCR
weighted results ***
Customers with increase in
LCC (%) ..........................
Customers with savings in
LCC (%) ..........................
Mean LCC (2009$) ............
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:37 Mar 08, 2010
TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
TSL 8
1.18
0.31
0.63
1.19
0.31
0.64
1.36
0.36
0.73
1.47
0.39
0.79
1.47
0.39
0.79
1.61
0.43
0.87
1.91
0.51
1.03
2.33
0.62
1.25
1.21
1.22
1.38
1.54
1.55
1.70
1.86
2.14
3.01
7.03
3.05
7.13
2.83
6.87
1.97
5.35
2.08
5.57
(9.29)
(16.23)
4.74
11.08
3.03
8.14
8.40–(19.99)
9.46–(20.79)
28.48–
(40.09)
10.20–
(14.37)
186.60–
(152.05)
66.87–(54.49)
46.35–(52.58)
3.39–(7.45)
32.15–
(42.15)
11.52–
(15.46)
18.40–(34.05)
3.01–(7.16)
16.27–
(32.42)
5.83–(11.62)
6.59–(12.20)
16.61–(18.84)
6.29
63.5
71.7
80.5
81.0
88.5
96.8
111.4
216–3410
45.1
218–3444
45.54
246–3890
51.44
277–4367
57.74
278–4394
58.11
304–4801
63.48
333–5253
69.47
383–6046
79.95
3.5–36.0
3.5–36.2
4.0–41.0
4.5–46.0
4.5–46.3
4.9–50.6
5.4–55.4
6.2–63.8
9.6–98.7
0.265
9.7–100.0
0.267
11.0–112.6
0.302
12.3–126.4
0.339
12.4–127.2
0.341
13.5–138.9
0.373
14.8–152.0
0.408
17.0–175.0
0.469
0.06–2.79
0.06–2.82
0.07–3.18
0.08–3.57
0.08–3.60
0.09–3.93
0.10–4.30
0.11–4.95
0.12–5.22
0.12–5.27
0.13–5.95
0.15–6.68
0.15–6.72
0.17–7.34
0.18–8.04
0.21–9.25
32.0
32.0
41.6
54.9
54.9
65.6
65.6
65.6
68.0
857
68.0
857
58.4
868
45.1
902
45.1
902
34.5
1,285
34.5
1,285
34.5
1,285
58
58
47
13
13
(369)
(369)
(369)
46.5
47.8
47.8
54.9
47.8
98.6
47.8
74.7
53.6
1,005
52.2
1,002
52.2
1,002
45.1
1,015
52.2
1,002
1.4
1,856
52.2
1,002
25.3
1,078
21
24
24
11
24
(830)
24
(52)
32.5
32.5
41.7
55.0
55.0
66.0
53.7
60.6
67.5
854
67.5
854
58.3
865
45.0
899
45.0
899
34.0
1,282
46.3
891
39.4
917
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10941
TABLE VI.45—SUMMARY OF CAPACITOR-START SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS ANALYTICAL RESULTS *—Continued
Trial standard level
Criteria
TSL 1
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ...........................
Life-cycle Cost of all Product
Classes, Weighted by Shipments
CSIR
Customers with increase in LCC (%) ..
Customers with savings in LCC (%) .......
Mean LCC (2009$) .....
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ....................
CSCR
Customers with increase in LCC (%) ..
Customers with savings in LCC (%) .......
Mean LCC (2009$) .....
Mean LCC Savings
(2009$) ....................
Market Share ****—CSIR (%) ...
Payback Period (years)
CSIR
Average .......................
Median ........................
CSCR
Average .......................
Median ........................
Employment Impact
Indirect Impacts (2045)
(jobs, ‘000)¥ ..................
TSL 2
TSL 3
TSL 4
TSL 5
TSL 6
TSL 7
TSL 8
58
58
47
15
15
(370)
23
(3)
30.7
30.7
40.2
54.1
54.1
65.1
65.1
65.1
69.3
859
69.3
859
59.8
870
45.9
903
45.9
903
34.9
1,287
34.9
1,287
34.9
1,287
62
62
51
17
17
(367)
(367)
(367)
38.4
39.7
39.7
46.1
39.7
94.7
39.7
65.0
61.6
1,299
60.3
1,289
60.3
1,289
53.9
1,304
60.3
1,289
5.3
2,228
60.3
1,289
35.0
1,364
50
99
60
98
60
98
45
96
60
95
(879)
100
60
3
(15)
7
10.5
3.1
10.5
3.1
15.1
4.5
24.9
7.0
24.9
7.0
108.5
11.9
108.5
11.9
108.5
11.9
14.8
4.4
15.3
4.5
15.3
4.5
19.5
5.9
15.3
4.5
200.0
37.6
15.3
4.5
34.8
10.0
7.06
7.12
8.56
10.24
10.20
19.57
11.22
18.70
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* Parentheses indicate negative (¥) values. For LCCs, a negative value means an increase in LCC by the amount indicated.
** Range of global values for the SCC of emissions reductions, representing a range of scenarios as described in section IV.M and summarized in Table VI.31, with
discount rates ranging from 2.5% to 5%.
*** Shipments-weighted based on market share product switching model.
**** Base case market share is 95 percent CSIR and 5 percent CSCR.
First, DOE considered TSL 8, the
combination of CSIR and CSCR
efficiency levels generating the greatest
national energy savings. TSL 8 would
likely save an estimated 2.33 quads of
energy through 2045, an amount DOE
considers significant. Discounted at
seven percent, the projected energy
savings through 2045 would be 0.62
quad. For the Nation as a whole, DOE
projects that TSL 8 would result in a net
benefit of $3.03 billion in NPV, using a
discount rate of seven percent. The
estimated emissions reductions at TSL 8
are up to 111.4 Mt of CO2, up to 80.0
kt of NOX, and up to 0.469 ton of Hg.
These reductions have a value of up to
$6,046 million for CO2 (using the 95th
percentile value at a 3 percent discount
rate), and a value of up to $63.8 million
for NOX, and $4.95 million for Hg at a
discount rate of seven percent. At the
central value for the social cost of
carbon, the estimated benefit of CO2
emissions reductions is $1,982 million
at a discount rate of three percent. DOE
also estimates that at TSL 8, total
electric generating capacity in 2030 will
decrease compared to the base case by
2.14 GW.
At TSL 8, DOE projects that for the
average customer, compared to the
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baseline, the LCC of a CSIR and CSCR
motor will increase by $369 and $52,
respectively. At TSL 8, DOE estimates
the fraction of customers experiencing
LCC increases will be 66 percent for
CSIR motors and 75 percent for CSCR
motors. The median PBP for the average
capacitor-start small electric motor
customers at TSL 8, 11.9 years for CSIR
motors and 10.0 years for CSCR motors,
is projected to be substantially longer
than the mean lifetime of the
equipment. DOE also considered market
migration between CSIR and CSCR users
and how that would affect the LCC of
CSIR users at TSL 8. DOE estimates that
at this TSL it will be more cost-effective
for many CSIR consumers to purchase a
CSCR motor instead, with only a slight
$3 increase in the average LCC over that
of the baseline CSIR motor. In total, 61
percent of consumers who migrate from
a CSIR to a CSCR motor will experience
LCC increases.
DOE also examined LCC savings using
a full distribution of motor sizes and
speeds. Under these conditions, for the
average customer, the LCC of a CSIR and
CSCR motor will increase by $367 and
$15, respectively, compared to the
baseline. At TSL 8, DOE estimates the
fraction of customers experiencing LCC
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increases will be 65 percent for both
CSIR and CSCR motors.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $52.58
million to an increase of $46.35 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer as well as the necessary
estimated investments. At TSL 8, DOE
recognizes the risk of negative impacts
if manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 8 could result in a net loss of 18.84
percent in INPV to the capacitor-start
small motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their capacitor-start small electric
motors.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
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burdens of TSL 8, the Secretary has
reached the following conclusion: At
TSL 8, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), and the positive net
economic savings (over 30 years) would
be outweighed by the economic burden
on existing CSCR customers and CSIR
customers who do not migrate from
CSIR to CSCR motors (as indicated by
the large increase in LCC) and the
potentially large reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has concluded that trial standard level
8 is not economically justified.
DOE then considered TSL 7, which
would likely save an estimated 1.91
quads of energy through 2045, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Discounted at seven percent, the
projected energy savings through 2045
would be 0.51 quad. For the Nation as
a whole, DOE projects that TSL 7 would
result in a net benefit of $4.74 billion in
NPV, using a discount rate of seven
percent. The estimated emissions
reductions at TSL 7 are up to 96.8 Mt
of CO2, up to 69.5 kt of NOX, and up to
0.408 ton of Hg. These reductions have
a value of up to $5,253 million for CO2
(using the 95th percentile value at a 3
percent discount rate), and a value of up
to $55.4 million for NOX, and $4.30
million for Hg at a discount rate of
seven percent. At the central value for
the social cost of carbon, the estimated
benefit of CO2 emissions reductions is
$1,722 million at a discount rate of three
percent. Total electric generating
capacity in 2030 is estimated to
decrease compared to the base case by
1.86 GW under TSL 7.
At TSL 7, DOE projects that for the
average customer, the LCC of capacitorstart small electric motors will increase
by $369 for CSIR motors and decrease
by $24 for CSCR motors compared to the
baseline. At TSL 7, DOE estimates the
fraction of CSIR customers experiencing
LCC increases will be 66 percent, but
only 48 percent for CSCR motor
customers. However, DOE believes that
at this TSL, which is the max-tech
efficiency level for CSIR motors, the
relative difference in cost between a
CSIR motor and a CSCR motor becomes
substantial and will have large effects
on customers. Rather than buy an
expensive CSIR motor, those customers
whose applications permit them to will
purchase a CSCR motor with the same
number of poles and horsepower
ratings. DOE is unsure of the magnitude
of the migration of CSIR users to CSCR
motors, but estimates that customers
that purchase a CSCR motor rather than
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a CSIR motor will reduce their LCC by
$23 on average, compared to the
baseline CSIR motor. On a national
level, DOE estimates that the market
share of CSCR motors could grow from
5 percent of all capacitor-start motors to
97 percent once the compliance date for
these standards is effective. Even though
switching from a CSIR to a CSCR motor
would result in a reduction in LCC on
average, DOE estimates that
approximately 54 percent of CSIR
customers that switch would still
experience an LCC increase.
DOE also examined LCC savings with
a full distribution of motor sizes and
speeds. Under these conditions, for the
average customer, compared to the
baseline, the LCC of a CSIR and CSCR
motor will increase by $367 and
decrease by $60, respectively. DOE also
examined what fraction of motors
would have increases in LCC. At TSL 7,
DOE estimates that 65 percent of CSIR
motor customers who do not switch to
CSCR motors, and 40 percent of CSCR
motor customers, will experience
increased LCC.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $34.05
million to an increase of $18.40 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer as well as the necessary
estimated investments. At TSL 7, DOE
recognizes the risk of negative impacts
if manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 7 could result in a net loss of 12.20
percent in INPV to the capacitor-start
small motor industry. At this TSL, the
combination of efficiency levels could
cause a migration from CSIR motors to
CSCR motors; however, DOE believes
that the capital conversion costs,
equipment retooling and R&D spending
associated with this migration would
not be severe.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 7, the Secretary has
reached the following conclusion: Trial
standard level 7 offers the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified and will result in
significant conservation of energy. The
Secretary has reached the conclusion
that the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), the positive net
economic savings to the Nation (over 30
years) and the harmonization of
efficiency requirements between CSIR
and CSCR motors would outweigh the
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potential reduction in INPV for
manufacturers and the economic burden
on those CSIR customers who are
unable to switch to CSCR motors.
Further, benefits from carbon dioxide
reductions (at a central value calculated
using a three percent discount rate)
would increase NPV by $1,722 million
(2009$). These benefits from carbon
dioxide emission reductions, when
considered in conjunction with the
consumer savings NPV and other factors
described above support DOE’s tentative
conclusion that trial standard level 7 is
economically justified. Therefore, DOE
today adopts the energy conservation
standards for capacitor-start small
electric motors at trial standard level 7.
VII. Procedural Issues and Regulatory
Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
Section 1(b)(1) of Executive Order
12866, ‘‘Regulatory Planning and
Review,’’ 58 FR 51735 (October 4, 1993),
requires each agency to identify the
problem the agency intends to address
that warrants new agency action
(including, where applicable, the
failures of private markets or public
institutions), as well as assess the
significance of that problem, to enable
assessment of whether any new
regulation is warranted. EPCA requires
DOE to establish standards for the small
motors covered in today’s rulemaking.
In addition, today’s standards also
address the following: (1) Misplaced
incentives, which separate
responsibility for selecting equipment
and for paying their operating costs; and
(2) Lack of consumer information and/
or information processing capability
about energy efficiency opportunities.
The market for small electric motors is
dominated by the presence and actions
of OEMs, who sell small electric motors
to end-users as a component of a larger
piece of equipment. There is a very large
diversity of equipment types that use
small electric motors and the market for
any particular type of equipment may be
very small. Consumers lack information
and choice regarding the motor
component. OEMs and consumers may
be more concerned with other aspects of
the application system than with
selecting the most cost effective motor
for the end user. Space constraints may
also restrict the ability of the consumer
to replace the motor with a more
efficient model.
In addition, DOE has determined that
today’s regulatory action is a ‘‘significant
regulatory action’’ under section 3(f)(1)
of Executive Order 12866. Accordingly,
section 6(a)(3) of the Executive Order
required that DOE prepare a regulatory
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impact analysis (RIA) on today’s final
rule and that the Office of Information
and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) in the
OMB review this rule. DOE presented to
OIRA for review the final rule and other
documents prepared for this
rulemaking, including the RIA, and has
included these documents in the
rulemaking record. They are available
for public review in the Resource Room
of DOE’s Building Technologies
Program, 950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite
600, Washington, DC 20024, (202) 586–
2945, between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m.,
Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays.
10943
feasible policy alternatives to this
regulation, (3) a quantitative comparison
of the impacts of the alternatives, and
(4) the national economic impacts of
today’s standards.
The major alternatives DOE analyzed
were: (1) No new regulatory action; (2)
financial incentives, including tax
credits and rebates; (3) revisions to
voluntary energy efficiency targets; and
(4) bulk government purchases. DOE
evaluated each alternative in terms of its
ability to achieve significant energy
savings at reasonable costs, and
compared it to the effectiveness of the
proposed rule.
The NOPR contained a summary of
the RIA, which evaluated the extent to
which major alternatives to standards
for small electric motors could achieve
significant energy savings at reasonable
cost, as compared to the effectiveness of
the proposed rule. 74 FR 61493–96. The
complete RIA (Regulatory Impact
Analysis for Proposed Energy
Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors) is contained in the TSD
prepared for today’s rule. The RIA
consists of: (1) A statement of the
problem addressed by this regulation
and the mandate for government action,
(2) a description and analysis of the
TABLE VII.1—NON-REGULATORY ALTERNATIVES FOR SMALL ELECTRIC MOTORS
Net present value†
billion $
Energy savings
quads *
Policy alternatives
7% Discount rate
No New Regulatory Action ..................................................................................
Consumer Rebates at TSL 4b (Polyphase) and TSL 3 (Single-Phase) .............
Consumer Rebates at TSL 4b (Polyphase) and TSL 2 (Single-Phase) .............
Consumer Rebates at TSL 4b (Polyphase) and TSL 3 (Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Only) ...................................................................................................
Consumer Tax Credits .........................................................................................
Manufacturer Tax Credits ....................................................................................
Voluntary Efficiency Targets ................................................................................
Bulk Government Purchases ...............................................................................
Proposed Standards at TSL 4b (Polyphase) and TSL 7 (Capacitor-Start) ........
3% Discount rate
0.00
0.17
0.27
0.00
0.49
0.72
0.00
1.13
1.69
0.60
0.11
0.07
0.42
0.18
2.20
1.76
0.35
0.25
0.95
0.44
5.28
4.03
0.80
0.56
2.29
1.04
12.52
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* Energy savings are in source quads from 2015 and 2045.
† Net present value (NPV) is the value of a time series of costs and savings. DOE determined the NPV from 2015 to 2065 in billions of 2009$.
The net present value amounts shown
in Table VII.1 refer to the NPV for
consumers. The costs to the government
of each policy (such as rebates or tax
credits) are not included in the costs for
the NPV since, on balance, consumers
are both paying for (through taxes) and
receiving the benefits of the payments.
For each of the policy alternatives other
than standards, Table VII.1 shows the
energy savings and NPV in the case
where the CSIR and CSCR market share
shift in response to the policy prior to
2015, or immediately in 2015 when
compliance with the standards would
be required. The NES and NPV in the
case of the proposed standard are shown
as a range between this scenario and a
scenario in which the market shift takes
ten years to complete, and begins in
2015 . The following paragraphs discuss
each of the policy alternatives listed in
Table VII.1. (For more details see TSD,
RIA.)
No new regulatory action. The case in
which no regulatory action is taken with
regard to small electric motors
constitutes the ‘‘base case’’ (or ‘‘No
Action’’) scenario. In this case, between
2015 and 2045, capacitor-start small
electric motors purchased in or after
2015 are expected to consume 1.91
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quads of primary energy (in the form of
losses), while polyphase small electric
motors purchased in or after 2015 are
expected to consume 0.29 quad of
primary energy. Since this is the base
case, energy savings and NPV are zero
by definition.
Rebates. DOE evaluated the possible
effect of a rebate consistent with current
motor rebate practices in the promotion
of premium efficiency motors which
cover a portion of the incremental price
difference between equipment meeting
baseline efficiency levels and
equipment meeting improved efficiency
requirements. The current average
motor rebate for an efficient 1horsepower motor is approximately $25,
and DOE scaled this rebate to be
approximately proportional to the retail
price of the motor. DOE evaluated
rebates targeting TSL 4b for polyphase
motors, and evaluated several target
efficiency levels for capacitor-start
motors (including TSLs 7, 5, 3, and 2).
Existing rebate programs for polyphase
motors target three-digit frame series
motors with efficiencies equivalent to
TSL 4b for small polyphase motors. At
rebate efficiency levels corresponding to
TSL 7 and 5 for capacitor-start motors,
DOE estimates that rebates consistent
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with current practice would have an
insignificant impact on increasing the
market share of CSIR motors. For this
case, meeting the target level requires
the purchase of a motor with a very high
average first cost because for TSL 7,
CSIR motors are at the maximum
technologically feasible efficiency. As a
result, rebates targeting TSLs 3 and 2
have larger energy savings. TSLs 7, 5, 3,
and 2 correspond to the same efficiency
level (EL 3) for CSCR motors.
For rebate programs targeting TSL 4b
for polyphase motors and TSL 3 for
capacitor start motors, DOE estimates
the market share of equipment meeting
the energy efficiency levels targeted
would increase from 0 percent to 0.4
percent for polyphase motors, from 0
percent to 0.2 percent for capacitor-start,
induction-run motors, and from 26.0 to
42.6 percent for capacitor-start,
capacitor-run motors. DOE assumed the
impact of this policy would be to
permanently transform the market so
that the shipment-weighted efficiency
gain seen in the first year of the program
would be maintained throughout the
forecast period. At the estimated
participation rates, the rebates would
provide 0.17 quad of national energy
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savings and an NPV of $0.49 billion (at
a 7-percent discount rate).
DOE found that a rebate targeting the
efficiency levels corresponding to TSL 2
for capacitor-start motors would result
in larger energy savings than one
targeting the efficiency levels of TSL 3,
TSL 5 or TSL 7. Such rebates would
increase the market share among
capacitor-start induction-run motors
meeting the efficiency level
corresponding to TSL 2 from 2.0 percent
to 11.7 percent. Combined with
unchanged polyphase motor rebates
targeting TSL 4b, DOE estimates these
rebates would provide 0.27 quad of
national energy savings and an NPV of
$0.72 billion (at a 7-percent discount
rate).
DOE also analyzed an alternative
rebate program for capacitor-start
motors which would give rebates of
twice the value of the previouslyanalyzed rebate for CSCR motors which
meet the requirements of TSL 7 (a $50
rebate for a 1 HP motor, scaled to other
product classes), and no rebates for
CSIR motors. DOE estimates that these
rebates would have no effect on the
efficiency distribution of capacitor-start
induction-run motors, and would
increase the market share among
capacitor-start capacitor-run motors
meeting TSL 7 from 26.0 percent to 89.4
percent. Combined with unchanged
polyphase motor rebates at TSL 4b, DOE
estimates these rebates would provide
0.60 quad of national energy savings
and an NPV of $1.76 billion (at a 7percent discount rate).
Although DOE estimates that rebates
will provide national benefits, they are
much smaller than the benefits resulting
from national performance standards.
Thus, DOE rejected rebates as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
Consumer Tax Credits. If customers
were offered a tax credit equivalent to
the amount mentioned above for
rebates, DOE’s research suggests that the
number of customers buying a small
electric motor that would take
advantage of the tax credit would be
approximately 60 percent of the number
that would take advantage of rebates.
Thus, as a result of the tax credit, the
percentage of customers purchasing the
products with efficiencies
corresponding to TSL 4b or higher for
polyphase motors would increase from
8.0 percent to 15.0 percent; the market
share of capacitor-start motors meeting
TSL 3 would increase from 0 percent to
0.1 percent for capacitor-start,
induction-run motors, and from 26.0
percent to 36.0 percent for capacitorstart, capacitor-run motors. DOE
assumed the impact of this policy
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would be to permanently transform the
market so that the shipment-weighted
efficiency gain seen in the first year of
the program would be maintained
throughout the forecast period. DOE
estimated that tax credits would yield a
fraction of the benefits that rebates
would provide. DOE rejected rebates, as
a policy alternative to national
performance standards, because the
benefits that rebates provide are much
smaller than those resulting from
performance standards. Thus, because
consumer tax credits provide even
smaller benefits than rebates, DOE also
rejected consumer tax credits as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
Manufacturer Tax Credits. DOE
believes even smaller benefits would
result from availability of a
manufacturer tax credit program that
would effectively result in a lower price
to the consumer by an amount that
covers part of the incremental price
difference between products meeting
baseline efficiency levels and those
meeting TSL 4b for polyphase small
electric motors and TSL 3 for capacitorstart small electric motors. Because
these tax credits would go to
manufacturers instead of customers,
DOE believes that fewer customers
would be aware of this program relative
to a consumer tax credit program. DOE
assumes that 50 percent of the
customers who would take advantage of
consumer tax credits would buy moreefficient products offered through a
manufacturer tax credit program. Thus,
as a result of the manufacturer tax
credit, the percentage of customers
purchasing the more-efficient products
would increase from 8.0 percent to 11.5
percent (i.e., 50 percent of the impact of
consumer tax credits) for polyphase
motors, from 0 percent to 0.1 percent for
capacitor-start, induction-run motors,
and from 26.0 percent to 31.0 percent
for capacitor-start, capacitor-run motors.
DOE assumed the impact of this
policy would be to permanently
transform the market so that the
shipment-weighted efficiency gain seen
in the first year of the program will be
maintained throughout the forecast
period. DOE estimated that
manufacturer tax credits would yield a
fraction of the benefits that consumer
tax credits would provide. DOE rejected
consumer tax credits as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards because the benefits that
consumer tax credits provide are much
smaller than those resulting from
performance standards. Thus, because
manufacturer tax credits provide even
smaller benefits than consumer tax
credits, DOE also rejected manufacturer
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tax credits as a policy alternative to
national performance standards.
Voluntary Energy-Efficiency Targets.
There are no current Federal or industry
marketing efforts to increase the use of
efficient small electric motors which
meet the requirements of TSL 4b for
polyphase small electric motors or TSL
7 for capacitor-start small electric
motors. NEMA and the Consortium for
Energy Efficiency promote ‘‘NEMA
Premium’’ efficient three-digit frame
series motors, and DOE analyzed this
program as a model for the market
effects of a similar program for small
electric motors. DOE evaluated the
potential impacts of such a program that
would encourage purchase of products
meeting the trial standard level
efficiency levels. DOE modeled the
voluntary efficiency program based on
this scenario and assumed that the
resulting shipment-weighted efficiency
gain would be maintained throughout
the forecast period. DOE estimated that
the enhanced effectiveness of voluntary
energy-efficiency targets would provide
0.42 quad of national energy savings
and an NPV of $0.95 billion (at a 7percent discount rate). Although this
would provide national benefits, they
are much smaller than the benefits
resulting from national performance
standards. Thus, DOE rejected use of
voluntary energy-efficiency targets as a
policy alternative to national
performance standards.
Bulk Government Purchases. Under
this policy alternative, the government
sector would be encouraged to purchase
increased amounts of polyphase
equipment that meet the efficiency
levels in trial standard level 4b and
capacitor-start equipment that meets the
efficiency levels in trial standard level
7. Federal, State, and local government
agencies could administer such a
program. At the Federal level, this
would be an enhancement to the
existing Federal Energy Management
Program (FEMP). DOE modeled this
program by assuming an increase in
installation of equipment meeting the
efficiency levels of the target standard
levels among the commercial and public
buildings and operations which are run
by government agencies. DOE estimated
that bulk government purchases would
provide 0.18 quad of national energy
savings and an NPV of $0.44 billion (at
a 7-percent discount rate), benefits
which are much smaller than those
estimated for national performance
standards. DOE rejected bulk
government purchases as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
National Performance Standards.
None of the regulatory alternatives DOE
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examined would save as much energy or
have an NPV as high as the standards in
today’s final rule. Also, several of the
alternatives would require new enabling
legislation, because DOE does not have
authority to implement those
alternatives. Additional detail on the
regulatory alternatives is found in the
RIA chapter in the TSD.
B. Review Under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.) requires preparation
of an initial regulatory flexibility
analysis for any rule that by law must
be proposed for public comment, unless
the agency certifies that the rule, if
promulgated, will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. As required by
Executive Order 13272, ‘‘Proper
Consideration of Small Entities in
Agency Rulemaking,’’ 67 FR 53461
(August 16, 2002), DOE published
procedures and policies on February 19,
2003, to ensure that the potential
impacts of its rules on small entities are
properly considered during the
rulemaking process. 68 FR 7990. DOE
has made its procedures and policies
available on the Office of the General
Counsel’s Web site, https://
www.gc.doe.gov.
DOE reviewed today’s final rule under
the provisions of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act and the procedures and
policies published on February 19,
2003. A regulatory flexibility analysis
examines the impact of the rule on
small entities and considers alternative
ways of reducing negative impacts.
In the context of this rulemaking,
‘‘small businesses,’’ as defined by the
Small Business Administration (SBA),
for the small electric motor
manufacturing industry are
manufacturing enterprises with 1,000
employees or fewer. See https://
www.sba.gov/idc/groups/public/
documents/sba_homepage/
serv_sstd_tablepdf.pdf. DOE used this
small business definition to determine
whether any small entities would be
required to comply with the rule. (65 FR
30836, 30850 (May 15, 2000), as
amended at 65 FR 53533, 53545
(September 5, 2000) and codified at 13
CFR part 121. The size standards are
listed by NAICS code and industry
description. The manufacturers
impacted by this rule are generally
classified under NAICS 335312, ‘‘Motor
and Generator Manufacturing,’’ which
sets a threshold of 1,000 employees or
less for an entity in this category to be
considered a small business.
As explained in the NOPR, DOE
identified producers of equipment
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covered by this rulemaking, which have
manufacturing facilities located within
the United States and could be
considered small entities, by two
methods: (1) Asking larger
manufacturers in MIA interviews to
identify any competitors they believe
may be a small business, and (2)
researching NEMA-identified fractional
horsepower motor manufacturers. DOE
then looked at publicly-available data
and contacted manufacturers, as
necessary, to determine if they meet the
SBA’s definition of a small
manufacturing company. In total, DOE
identified 11 companies that could
potentially be small businesses. During
initial review of the 11 companies in its
list, DOE either contacted or researched
each company to determine if it sold
covered small electric motors. Based on
its research, DOE screened out
companies that did not offer motors
covered by this rulemaking.
Consequently, DOE estimated that only
one out of 11 companies listed were
potentially small business
manufacturers of covered products. DOE
then contacted this potential small
business manufacturer and determined
that the company’s equipment would
not be covered by this proposed
rulemaking. Thus, based on its initial
screening and subsequent interviews,
DOE did not identify any company as a
small business manufacturer based on
SBA’s definition of a small business
manufacturer for this industry. (74 FR
61410, 61496). For today’ final rule,
DOE did not identify any additional
companies that would be potential
small business manufacturer based on
SBA’s definition of a small business
manufacturer for the small electric
motor industry.
DOE reviewed the standard levels
considered in today’s final rule under
the provisions of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act and the procedures and
policies published on February 19,
2003. On the basis of the foregoing, DOE
reaffirms the certification. Therefore,
DOE has not prepared a final regulatory
flexibility analysis for this rule.
C. Review Under the Paperwork
Reduction Act
This rulemaking imposes no new
information or recordkeeping
requirements. Accordingly, OMB
clearance is not required under the
Paperwork Reduction Act. (44 U.S.C.
3501, et seq.)
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act
DOE prepared an environmental
assessment of the impacts of today’s
standards which it published as chapter
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10945
15 within the TSD for the final rule.
DOE found the environmental effects
associated with today’s standard levels
for small electric motors to be
insignificant. Therefore, DOE is issuing
a FONSI pursuant to NEPA (42 U.S.C.
4321 et seq.), the regulations of the
Council on Environmental Quality (40
CFR parts 1500–1508), and DOE’s
regulations for compliance with NEPA
(10 CFR part 1021). The FONSI is
available in the docket for this
rulemaking.
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
DOE reviewed this rule pursuant to
Executive Order 13132, ‘‘Federalism,’’ 64
FR 43255 (August 4, 1999), which
imposes certain requirements on
agencies formulating and implementing
policies or regulations that preempt
State law or that have federalism
implications. In accordance with DOE’s
statement of policy describing the
intergovernmental consultation process
it will follow in the development of
regulations that have federalism
implications, 65 FR 13735 (March 14,
2000), DOE examined the November
2009 proposed rule and determined that
the rule would not have a substantial
direct effect on the States, on the
relationship between the National
Government and the States, or on the
distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of Government. See 74 FR 61497.
DOE received no comments on this
issue in response to the NOPR, and its
conclusions on this issue are the same
for the final rule as they were for the
proposed rule. Therefore, DOE has taken
no further action in today’s final rule
with respect to Executive Order 13132.
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
With respect to the review of existing
regulations and the promulgation of
new regulations, section 3(a) of
Executive Order 12988, ‘‘Civil Justice
Reform’’ (61 FR 4729 (February 7, 1996))
imposes on Federal agencies the general
duty to adhere to the following
requirements: (1) Eliminate drafting
errors and ambiguity, (2) write
regulations to minimize litigation, and
(3) provide a clear legal standard for
affected conduct rather than a general
standard and promote simplification
and burden reduction. Section 3(b) of
Executive Order 12988 specifically
requires that Executive agencies make
every reasonable effort to ensure that the
regulation: (1) Clearly specifies the
preemptive effect, if any; (2) clearly
specifies any effect on existing Federal
law or regulation; (3) provides a clear
legal standard for affected conduct
while promoting simplification and
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burden reduction; (4) specifies the
retroactive effect, if any; (5) adequately
defines key terms; and (6) addresses
other important issues affecting clarity
and general draftsmanship under any
guidelines issued by the Attorney
General. Section 3(c) of Executive Order
12988 requires Executive agencies to
review regulations in light of applicable
standards in section 3(a) and section
3(b) to determine whether they are met
or it is unreasonable to meet one or
more of them. DOE has completed the
required review and determined that, to
the extent permitted by law, the final
regulations meet the relevant standards
of Executive Order 12988.
G. Review Under the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995
As indicated in the NOPR, DOE
reviewed the proposed rule under Title
II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform
Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4) (UMRA),
which imposes requirements on Federal
agencies when their regulatory actions
will have certain types of impacts on
State, local, and Tribal governments and
the private sector. See 74 FR 61497.
DOE concluded that this rule would not
contain an intergovernmental mandate,
but would likely result in expenditures
of $100 million or more after 2015 for
private sector commercial and industrial
users of equipment with small electric
motors. DOE estimated annualized
impacts for the final standards using the
results of the national impacts analysis.
The national impact analysis results
expressed as annualized values are
$961–$1,146 million in total annualized
benefits from the final rule, $264
million in annualized costs, and $698–
$882 million in annualized net benefits.
Details are provided in chapter 10 of the
TSD. Therefore, DOE must publish a
written statement assessing the costs,
benefits, and other effects of the rule on
the national economy.
Section 205 of UMRA also requires
DOE to identify and consider a
reasonable number of regulatory
alternatives before promulgating a rule
for which UMRA requires such a
written statement. DOE must select from
those alternatives the most cost-effective
and least burdensome alternative that
achieves the objectives of the rule,
unless DOE publishes an explanation
for doing otherwise or the selection of
such an alternative is inconsistent with
law.
Today’s energy conservation
standards for small electric motors
would achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that
DOE has determined to be both
technologically feasible and
economically justified. A discussion of
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the alternatives considered by DOE is
presented in the regulatory impact
analysis section of the TSD for this rule.
Also, Section 202(c) of UMRA
authorizes an agency to prepare the
written statement required by UMRA in
conjunction with or as part of any other
statement or analysis that accompanies
the proposed rule. (2 U.S.C. 1532(c))
The TSD, preamble, and regulatory
impact analysis for today’s final rule
contain a full discussion of the rule’s
costs, benefits, and other effects on the
national economy, and therefore satisfy
UMRA’s written statement requirement.
H. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 1999
DOE determined that, for this
rulemaking, it need not prepare a
Family Policymaking Assessment under
Section 654 of the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 1999
(Pub. L. 105–277). See 74 FR 61497.
DOE received no comments concerning
Section 654 in response to the NOPR,
and, therefore, has taken no further
action in today’s final rule with respect
to this provision.
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
DOE determined under Executive
Order 12630, ‘‘Governmental Actions
and Interference with Constitutionally
Protected Property Rights,’’ 53 FR 8859
(March 18, 1988), that today’s rule
would not result in any takings that
might require compensation under the
Fifth Amendment to the U.S.
Constitution. See 74 FR 61497–98. DOE
received no comments concerning
Executive Order 12630 in response to
the NOPR, and, therefore, has taken no
further action in today’s final rule with
respect to this Executive Order.
J. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 2001
Section 515 of the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 2001 (44 U.S.C. 3516, note)
provides for agencies to review most
disseminations of information to the
public under guidelines established by
each agency pursuant to general
guidelines issued by OMB. OMB’s
guidelines were published at 67 FR
8452 (February 22, 2002), and DOE’s
guidelines were published at 67 FR
62446 (October 7, 2002). DOE has
reviewed today’s final rule under the
OMB and DOE guidelines and has
concluded that it is consistent with
applicable policies in those guidelines.
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K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
Executive Order 13211, ‘‘Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use,’’ 66 FR 28355 (May
22, 2001) requires Federal agencies to
prepare and submit to the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs
(OIRA) a Statement of Energy Effects for
any proposed significant energy action.
DOE determined that today’s rule,
which sets energy conservation
standards for small electric motors, is
not a ‘‘significant energy action’’ within
the meaning of Executive Order 13211.
See 74 FR 61498. Accordingly, DOE did
not prepare a Statement of Energy
Effects on the proposed rule. DOE
received no comments on this issue in
response to the NOPR. As with the
proposed rule, DOE has concluded that
today’s final rule is not a significant
energy action within the meaning of
Executive Order 13211, and has not
prepared a Statement of Energy Effects
on the final rule.
L. Review Under the Information
Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
In consultation with the Office of
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP),
OMB issued on December 16, 2004, its
‘‘Final Information Quality Bulletin for
Peer Review’’ (the Bulletin). 70 FR 2664.
(January 14, 2005) The Bulletin
establishes that certain scientific
information shall be peer reviewed by
qualified specialists before it is
disseminated by the Federal
government, including influential
scientific information related to agency
regulatory actions. The purpose of the
bulletin is to enhance the quality and
credibility of the Government’s
scientific information.
As set forth in the NOPR, DOE held
formal in-progress peer reviews of the
types of analyses and processes that
DOE has used to develop the energy
efficiency standards in today’s rule, and
issued a report on these peer reviews.
The report is available at https://
www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/peer_review.html.
See 74 FR 61498.
M. Congressional Notification
As required by 5 U.S.C. 801, DOE will
submit to Congress a report regarding
the issuance of today’s final rule prior
to the effective date set forth at the
outset of this notice. The report will
state that it has been determined that
the rule is a ‘‘major rule’’ as defined by
5 U.S.C. 804(2). DOE also will submit
the supporting analyses to the
Comptroller General in the U.S.
Government Accountability Office
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(GAO) and make them available to each
House of Congress.
VIII. Approval of the Office of the
Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved
publication of today’s final rule.
List of Subjects in 10 CFR Part 431
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Energy conservation test
procedures, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements.
Issued in Washington, DC, on February 22,
2010.
Cathy Zoi,
Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy.
For the reasons stated in the preamble,
DOE amends part 431 of chapter II of
title 10, of the Code of Federal
Regulations, to read as set forth below.
■
PART 431—ENERGY EFFICIENCY
PROGRAM FOR CERTAIN
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL
EQUIPMENT
1. The authority citation for part 431
continues to read as follows:
■
10947
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 6291–6317.
2. Section 431.446 is revised to read
as follows:
■
Energy Conservation Standards
§ 431.446 Small electric motors energy
conservation standards and their effective
dates.
(a) Each small electric motor
manufactured (alone or as a component
of another piece of non-covered
equipment) after February 28, 2015,
shall have an average full load
efficiency of not less than the following:
Average full load efficiency
Polyphase
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Open motors (number of poles)
6
0.25/0.18 ..................................................................................................................................................
0.33/0.25 ..................................................................................................................................................
0.5/0.37 ....................................................................................................................................................
0.75/0.55 ..................................................................................................................................................
1/0.75 .......................................................................................................................................................
1.5/1.1 ......................................................................................................................................................
2/1.5 .........................................................................................................................................................
3/2.2 .........................................................................................................................................................
4
67.5
71.4
75.3
81.7
82.5
83.8
N/A
N/A
2
69.5
73.4
78.2
81.1
83.5
86.5
86.5
86.9
65.6
69.5
73.4
76.8
77.0
84.0
85.5
85.5
Average full load efficiency
Capacitor-start capacitor-run and capacitor-start induction-run
Motor horsepower/standard kilowatt equivalent
Open motors (number of poles)
6
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0.25/0.18 ..................................................................................................................................................
0.33/0.25 ..................................................................................................................................................
0.5/0.37 ....................................................................................................................................................
0.75/0.55 ..................................................................................................................................................
1/0.75 .......................................................................................................................................................
1.5/1.1 ......................................................................................................................................................
2/1.5 .........................................................................................................................................................
3/2.2 .........................................................................................................................................................
(b) For purposes of determining the
required minimum average full load
efficiency of an electric motor that has
a horsepower or kilowatt rating between
two horsepower or two kilowatt ratings
listed in any table of efficiency
standards in paragraph (a) of this
section, each such motor shall be
deemed to have a listed horsepower or
kilowatt rating, determined as follows:
(1) A horsepower at or above the
midpoint between the two consecutive
horsepower ratings shall be rounded up
to the higher of the two horsepower
ratings;
(2) A horsepower below the midpoint
between the two consecutive
horsepower ratings shall be rounded
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down to the lower of the two
horsepower ratings; or
(3) A kilowatt rating shall be directly
converted from kilowatts to horsepower
using the formula 1 kilowatt = (1/0.746)
hp, without calculating beyond three
significant decimal places, and the
resulting horsepower shall be rounded
in accordance with paragraphs (b)(1) or
(b)(2) of this section, whichever applies.
Appendix
[The following letter from the Department
of Justice will not appear in the Code of
Federal Regulations.]
Department of Justice, Antitrust Division,
Main Justice Building, 950 Pennsylvania
Avenue, NW., Washington, DC 20530–
0001, (202) 514–2401/(202) 616–2645(f),
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4
62.2
66.6
76.2
80.2
81.1
N/A
N/A
N/A
2
68.5
72.4
76.2
81.8
82.6
83.8
84.5
N/A
66.6
70.5
72.4
76.2
80.4
81.5
82.9
84.1
antitrust.atr@usdoj.gov, https://
www.usdoj.gov/atr.
January 25, 2010.
Robert H. Edwards, Jr., Deputy General
Counsel for Energy Policy, Department of
Energy, Washington, DC 20585.
Dear Deputy General Counsel Edwards: I
am responding to your November 19, 2009
letter seeking the views of the Attorney
General about the potential impact on
competition of proposed energy conservation
standards for small electric motors. Your
request was submitted pursuant to Section
325(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) of the Energy Policy and
Conservation Act, as amended, (‘‘EPCA’’), 42
U.S.C. § 6295(o)(B)(i)(V), which requires the
Attorney General to make a determination of
the impact of any lessening of competition
that is likely to result from the imposition of
proposed energy conservation standards. The
Attorney General’s responsibility for
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responding to requests from other
departments about the effect of a program on
competition has been delegated to the
Assistant Attorney General for the Antitrust
Division in 28 CFR § 0.40(g).
In conducting its analysis the Antitrust
Division examines whether a proposed
standard may lessen competition, for
example, by substantially limiting consumer
choice, leaving consumers with fewer
competitive alternatives, placing certain
manufacturers of a product at an unjustified
competitive disadvantage compared to other
manufacturers, or by inducing avoidable
inefficiencies in production or distribution of
particular products.
We have reviewed the proposed standards
contained in the Notice of Proposed
Rulemaking (‘‘NOPR’’)(74 Fed. Reg. 61410)
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and attended the December 17, 2009 public
hearing on the proposed standard.
Based on our review of the record, the
proposed standards for small electric motors
could increase costs for consumers who need
to replace small electric motors in existing
equipment. Proposed Trial Standard Level
(TSL) 5 for polyphase small electric motors
and TSL 7 for all capacitor-start small electric
motors apply to motors sold as replacements
as well as to those built into original
equipment. We understand that compliance
with those standards could require
manufacturers to increase the size of their
motors such that the larger motors will not
fit into existing space constrained equipment.
In such a case, owners of existing equipment
with a broken motor would have to either
replace the entire piece of equipment or
attempt to repair the motor. Such equipment
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owners would not have the option of simply
replacing the existing small electric motor,
thus limiting the range of competitive
alternatives available to them. This may be
quite onerous to consumers when the motor
is only a small component of the total cost
of the item and repairing the motor is
difficult or costly. We ask the Department of
Energy to take this possible impact into
account and consider, as is warranted,
exempting from the proposed standard the
manufacture and marketing of certain
replacement small electric motors for a
limited period in time.
Sincerely,
Christine A. Varney,
Assistant Attorney General.
[FR Doc. 2010–4358 Filed 3–8–10; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 75, Number 45 (Tuesday, March 9, 2010)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Pages 10874-10948]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2010-4358]
[[Page 10873]]
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Part II
Department of Energy
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10 CFR Part 431
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors; Final Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 45 / Tuesday, March 9, 2010 / Rules
and Regulations
[[Page 10874]]
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket Number EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007]
RIN 1904-AB70
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Small Electric Motors
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Final rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is adopting energy
conservation standards for small electric motors. DOE has determined
that these standards will result in significant conservation of energy,
and are technologically feasible and economically justified.
DATES: Effective Date: The effective date of this rule is April 8,
2010. The standards established in today's final rule will be
applicable starting March 9, 2015.
ADDRESSES: For access to the docket to read background documents, the
technical support document, transcripts of the public meetings in this
proceeding, or comments received, visit the U.S. Department of Energy,
Resource Room of the Building Technologies Program, 950 L'Enfant Plaza,
SW., 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20024, (202) 586-2945, between 9 a.m.
and 4 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays. Please call
Ms. Brenda Edwards at the above telephone number for additional
information regarding visiting the Resource Room. (Note: DOE's Freedom
of Information Reading Room no longer houses rulemaking materials.) You
may also obtain copies of certain previous rulemaking documents in this
proceeding (i.e., framework document, notice of public meeting and
availability of preliminary technical support document, notice of
proposed rulemaking, draft analyses, public meeting materials, and
related test procedure documents from the Office of Energy Efficiency
and Renewable Energy's Web site at https://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html).
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. James Raba, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program, EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington,
DC 20585-0121, (202) 586-8654, e-mail: Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Michael Kido, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of General
Counsel, GC-72, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585,
(202) 586-8145, e-mail: Michael.Kido@hq.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Summary of the Final Rule and Its Benefits
A. Energy Conservation Standards Levels
B. Benefits and Burdens to Customers of Small Electric Motors
C. Impact on Manufacturers
D. National Benefits
E. Conclusion
II. Introduction
A. Authority
B. Background
1. Current Energy Conservation Standards
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for Small Electric Motors
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
C. Energy Savings
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Motor Customers and Manufacturers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of Equipment
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation to Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion of Comments on Methodology
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
a. Motor Categories
b. Horsepower Ratings
c. Performance Requirements
d. Motor Enclosures
e. Frame Sizes
f. Insulation Class Systems
g. Service Factors
h. Metric Equivalents and Non-Standard Horsepower and Kilowatt
Ratings
i. Summary
2. Product Classes
B. Screening Analysis
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Product Classes Analyzed
2. Baseline Models
a. Baseline Efficiencies
b. Baseline Temperature Rise
c. Baseline Motor Performance
3. Higher Efficiency Motor Designs
a. Electrical Steel
b. Thermal Analysis
c. Performance Requirements
d. Stray Load Loss
e. Stack Length and Core Diameter
4. Cost Model
5. Efficiency Scaling
6. Cost-Efficiency Results
D. Markups to Determine Equipment Price
E. Energy Use Characterization
1. Applications
2. Annual Hours of Operation and Motor Loading
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis
1. Installation Cost
2. Energy Prices
3. Energy Price Trend
4. Maintenance and Repair Costs
5. Equipment Lifetime
6. Discount Rates
7. Space-Constrained Applications and the After-Market
8. Standard Compliance Date
G. National Impact Analysis--National Energy Savings and Net
Present Value Analysis
1. General
2. Shipments
3. Space Constraints
4. Base-Case and Standards-Case Efficiency Distributions
5. Annual Energy Consumption per Unit
H. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Capital Conversion and Equipment Conversion Costs
2. Manufacturer Selling Prices
3. Markup Scenarios
4. Premium Electrical Steels
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
L. Environmental Assessment
M. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide and Other Emissions Impacts
1. Social Cost of Carbon
a. Monetizing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
b. Social Cost of Carbon Values Used in Past Regulatory Analyses
c. Approach and Key Assumptions
2. Monetary Values of Non-Carbon Emissions
V. Discussion of Other Comments
A. Trial Standard Levels
B. Enforcement
C. Nominal Full-Load Efficiency
VI. Analytical Results and Conclusions
A. Trial Standard Levels
B. Significance of Energy Savings
C. Economic Justification
1. Economic Impact on Motor Customers
a. Life-Cycle Costs and Payback Period
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity Calculations
c. Customer Subgroup Analysis
d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impact on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Net Present Value and Net National Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of Equipment
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
D. Conclusion
VII. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act
D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
[[Page 10875]]
G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act, 1999
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act, 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
M. Congressional Notification
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Final Rule and Its Benefits
A. Energy Conservation Standards Levels
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended (42 U.S.C. 6291
et seq.; EPCA or the Act), directs the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
to adopt energy conservation standards for those small electric motors
for which standards would be technologically feasible and economically
justified, and would result in significant energy savings (42 U.S.C.
6317(b)(1)-(2)). The standards in today's final rule satisfy these
requirements and will achieve the maximum improvements in energy
efficiency that are technologically feasible and economically
justified. Table I.1 and Table I.2 show these standard levels, which
will apply to all small electric motors manufactured for sale in the
United States, or imported into the United States, starting five years
after publication of this final rule.
Table I.1--Standard Levels for Polyphase Small Electric Motor
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor output power Six poles Four poles Two poles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW........................................... 67.5 69.5 65.6
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW........................................... 71.4 73.4 69.5
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW............................................ 75.3 78.2 73.4
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW........................................... 81.7 81.1 76.8
1 Hp/0.75 kW.............................................. 82.5 83.5 77.0
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW............................................. 83.8 86.5 84.0
2 Hp/1.5 kW............................................... N/A 86.5 85.5
3 Hp/2.2 kW............................................... N/A 86.9 85.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of average full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies correspond to a modified Trial Standard Level 4b for polyphase motors. For horsepower/pole
configurations with efficiency standards higher than the for general purpose electric motors (subtype I), DOE
reduced the standard level to align with regulations in 10 CFR 431.25. See section VI for further discussion.
Table I.2--Standard Levels for Capacitor-Start Induction-Run and Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Small Electric
Motors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor output power Six poles Four poles Two poles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW........................................... 62.2 68.5 66.6
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW........................................... 66.6 72.4 70.5
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW............................................ 76.2 76.2 72.4
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW........................................... 80.2 81.8 76.2
1 Hp/0.75 kW.............................................. 81.1 82.6 80.4
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW............................................. N/A 83.8 81.5
2 Hp/1.5 kW............................................... N/A 84.5 82.9
3 Hp/2.2 kW............................................... N/A N/A 84.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies correspond to a modified Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors. DOE reduced
efficiency standards for capacitor-start induction run motors such that they harmonize with adopted capacitor-
start capacitor-run motor efficiency standards. See section VI for further discussion.
B. Benefits and Burdens to Customers of Small Electric Motors
Table I.3 presents the implications of today's standards for
consumers of small electric motors. The economic impacts of the
standards on consumers as measured by the average life-cycle cost (LCC)
savings are positive, even though the standards may increase some
initial costs. For example, a typical polyphase motor has an average
installed price of $517 and average lifetime operating costs
(discounted) of $751. To meet the amended standards, DOE estimates that
the average installed price of such equipment will increase by $72,
which will be more than offset by savings of $100 in average lifetime
operating costs (discounted).
Table I.3--Implications of Standards for Commercial Consumers
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average
Energy Average installed Average life- Median payback
Equipment class conservation installed price increase cycle cost period years
standard % price* $ % savings $
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Polyphase, 1-horsepower, 4-pole. 83.5 589 72 28 7.8
Capacitor-start induction-run, 76.2 996 502 -369 12.4
\1/2\-horsepower, 4-pole.......
Capacitor-start capacitor-run, 81.8 599 51 24 5.9
\3/4\-horsepower, 4-pole.......
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* For a baseline model.
[[Page 10876]]
C. Impact on Manufacturers
Using a real corporate discount rate of 9.7 percent, which DOE
calculated by examining the financial statements of motor
manufacturers, DOE estimates the industry net present value (INPV) of
the small electric motor manufacturing industry to be $70 million for
polyphase small electric motors and $279 million for capacitor-start,
or single-phase motors (both figures in 2009$). DOE expects the impact
of the standards on the INPV of manufacturers of small electric motors
to range from a increase of 4.8 percent to a loss of 7.8 percent (an
increase of $3.4 million to a loss of $5.4 million) for polyphase
motors and an increase of 6.6 percent to a loss of 12.2 percent (an
increase of $32.2 million to a loss of $42.2 million) for single-phase
motors. Based on DOE's interviews with the major manufacturers of small
electric motors, DOE expects minimal plant closings or loss of
employment as a result of the standards.
D. National Benefits
The standards will provide significant benefits to the Nation. DOE
estimates the standards will save approximately 2.2 quads (quadrillion
(10\15\) British thermal units (BTU)) of energy over 30 years (2015-
2045). This is equivalent to about 2.2% of total annual U.S. energy
consumption.
By 2045, DOE expects the energy savings from the standards to
eliminate the need for approximately eight new 250-megawatt (MW) power
plants. These energy savings will result in cumulative greenhouse gas
emission reductions of approximately 112 million tons (Mt) of carbon
dioxide (CO2), or an amount equal to that produced by
approximately 25 million new cars in a year. Additionally, the
standards will help alleviate air pollution by resulting in
approximately 81 thousand tons (kt) of nitrogen oxides (NOX)
emission reductions and approximately 0.49 ton of cumulative mercury
(Hg) emission reductions from 2015 through 2045. The estimated net
present monetary value of these emissions reductions is between $385
and $6,081 million for CO2, (expressed in 2009$). The
estimated net present monetary values of these emissions reductions are
between $13.2 and $63.4 million for NOX (expressed in 2009$)
and $0.12 and $5.14 million for Hg (expressed in 2009$) at a 7-percent
discount rate (discounted to 2010). At a 3 percent discount rate, the
estimated net present values of these emissions reductions are between
$17.1 and $175.5 million (2009$) for NOX and $0.22 and $9.66
million (2009$) for Hg.
The national NPV of the standards is $5.3 billion using a seven-
percent discount rate and $12.5 billion using a three-percent discount
rate, cumulative from 2015 to 2045 in 2009$. This is the estimated
total value of future savings minus the estimated increased equipment
costs, discounted to the year 2009.
The benefits and costs of today's rule can also be expressed in
terms of annualized (2009$) values from 2015-2045. Estimates of
annualized values are shown in Table I.4. The annualized monetary
values are the sum of the annualized national economic value of
operating savings benefits (energy, maintenance and repair), expressed
in 2009$, plus the monetary value of the benefits of CO2
emission reductions, otherwise known as the Social Cost of Carbon
(SCC), calculated using the average value derived using a 3% discount
rate (equivalent to $21.40 per metric ton of CO2 emitted in
2010, in 2007$). This value is a central value from a recent
interagency process. The monetary benefits of cumulative emissions
reductions are reported in 2009$ so that they can be compared with the
other costs and benefits in the same dollar units. The derivation of
this value is discussed in section IV.M. Although comparing the value
of operating savings to the value of CO2 reductions provides
a valuable perspective, please note the following: (1) The national
operating savings are domestic U.S. consumer monetary savings found in
market transactions while the value of CO2 reductions is
based on a global value. Also, note that the central value is only one
of four SCC developed by the interagency workgroup. Other marginal SCC
values for 2010 are $4.70, $35.10, and $64.90 per metric ton (2007$ for
emissions in 2010), which reflect different discount rates and, for the
highest value, the possibility of higher-than-expected impacts further
out in the tails of the SCC distribution. (2) The assessments of
operating savings and CO2 savings are performed with
different computer models, leading to different time frames for
analysis. The national operating cost savings is measured for the
lifetime of small electric motors shipped in the 31-year period 2015-
2045. The value of CO2, on the other hand, reflects the
present value of all future climate related impacts due to emitting a
ton of carbon dioxide in that year, out to 2300.
Using a 7-percent discount rate for the annualized cost analysis,
the combined cost of the standards proposed in today's proposed rule
for small electric motors is $263.9 million per year in increased
equipment and installation costs, while the annualized benefits are
$855.1 million per year in reduced equipment operating costs, $115.6
million in CO2 reductions, $3.89 million in reduced
NOX emissions, and $0.30 million in reduced Hg emissions,
for a net benefit of $711.0 million per year. Using a 3-percent
discount rate, the cost of the standards proposed in today's rule is
$263.7 million per year in increased equipment and installation costs,
while the benefits of today's standards are $989.5 million per year in
reduced operating costs, $115.6 million in CO2 reductions,
$5.58 million in reduced NOX emissions, and $0.29 million in
reduced Hg emissions, for a net benefit of $847.3 million per year.
Table I.4--Annualized Benefits and Costs for Small Electric Motors
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Units
Category Primary estimate (AEO Low estimate (low High estimate (high ---------------------------------------------------
reference case) energy price case) energy price case) Year dollars Disc. rate Period covered
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benefits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Energy Annualized Monetized 855.1................ 831.8................ 870.3................ 2009 7%................ 31
(millions$/year). 989.5................ 964.8................ 1000.5............... 2009 3%................ 31
Annualized Quantified.......... 2.29 CO2 (Mt)........ 2.29 CO2 (Mt)........ 2.29 CO2 (Mt)........ NA 7%................ 31
1.55 NOX (kt)........ 1.55 NOX (kt)........ 1.55 NOX (kt)........ NA 7%................ 31
0.017 Hg (t)......... 0.017 Hg (t)......... 0.017 Hg (t)......... NA 7%................ 31
3.13 CO2 (Mt)........ 3.13 CO2 (Mt)........ 3.13 CO2 (Mt)........ NA 3%................ 31
2.22 NOX (kt)........ 2.22 NOX (kt)........ 2.22 NOX (kt)........ NA 3%................ 31
0.017 Hg (t)......... 0.017 Hg (t)......... 0.017 Hg (t)......... NA 3%................ 31
[[Page 10877]]
CO2 Monetized Value (at $4.7/ 31.5................. 31.5................. 31.5................. 2009 5%................ 31
Metric Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $21.4/ 115.6................ 115.6................ 115.6................ 2009 3%................ 31
Metric Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $35.1/ 179.2................ 179.2................ 179.2................ 2009 2.5%.............. 31
Metric Ton, millions$/year)*.
CO2 Monetized Value (at $64.9/ 352.5................ 352.5................ 352.5................ 2009 3%................ 31
Metric Ton, millions$/year)*.
NOX Monetized Value (at $2,437/ 3.89................. 3.89................. 3.89................. 2009 7%................ 31
Metric Ton, millions$/year). 5.58................. 5.58................. 5.58................. 2009 3%................ 31
Hg Monetized Value (at $17 0.3.................. 0.3.................. 0.3.................. 2009 7%................ 31
million/Metric Ton, millions$/ 0.29................. 0.29................. 0.29................. 2009 3%................ 31
year).
Total Monetary Benefits 890.8-1211.8......... 867.5-1188.5......... 906.0-1227.0......... 2009 7% Range.......... 31
(millions$/year)**. 974.9................ 951.6................ 990.1................ 2009 7%................ 31
1111.0............... 1086.3............... 1121.9............... 2009 3%................ 31
1026.9-1347.9........ 1002.2-1323.2........ 1037.8-1358.8........ 2009 3% Range.......... 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized (millions$/ 263.9................ 263.9................ 263.9................ 2009 7%................ 31
year).
263.7................ 263.7................ 263.7................ 2009 3%................ 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Benefits/Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized, including 626.9-947.9.......... 603.6-924.6.......... 642.1-963.1.......... 2009 7% Range.......... 31
CO2 Benefits (million$/year)**. 711.0................ 687.7................ 726.2................ 2009 7%................ 31
847.3................ 822.6................ 858.3................ 2009 3%................ 31
763.2-1084.3......... 738.5-1059.6......... 774.2-1095.2......... 2009 3% Range.......... 31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* These values represent global values (in 2007$) of the social cost of CO2 emissions in 2010 under several scenarios. The values of $4.7, $21.4, and
$35.1 per ton are the averages of SCC distributions calculated using 5%, 3%, and 2.5% discount rates, respectively. The value of $64.9 per ton
represents the 95th percentile of the SCC distribution calculated using a 3% discount rate. See section IV.M for details.
** Total Monetary Benefits for both the 3% and 7% cases utilize the central estimate of social cost of CO2 emissions calculated at a 3% discount rate
(averaged across three IAMs), which is equal to $21.4/ton in 2010 (in 2007$). The rows labeled as ``7% Range'' and ``3% Range'' calculate consumer,
Hg, and NOX cases with the labeled discount rate but add these values to the full range of CO2 values with the $4.7/ton value at the low end, and the
$64.9/ton value at the high end.
E. Conclusion
DOE has concluded that the benefits (energy savings, consumer LCC
savings, national NPV increases, and emissions reductions) to the
Nation of today's standards for small electric motors outweigh their
costs (loss of manufacturer INPV and consumer LCC increases for some
users of small electric motors). DOE has also concluded that these
standards are technologically feasible and economically justified, and
will result in significant energy savings. Small electric motors that
are commercially available or working prototypes use or have used the
technologies needed to meet the new standard levels.
II. Introduction
A. Authority
Title III of EPCA sets forth a variety of provisions designed to
improve energy efficiency. Part A of Title III (42 U.S.C. 6291-6309)
provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products
Other than Automobiles. Part A-1 of Title III (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317)
establishes a similar program for ``Certain Industrial Equipment,''
which includes small electric motors, the subject of this
rulemaking.\1\ DOE publishes today's final rule pursuant to Part A-1 of
Title III, which provides for test procedures, labeling, and energy
conservation standards for small electric motors and certain other
equipment, and authorizes DOE to require information and reports from
manufacturers. The test procedures DOE recently adopted for small
electric motors, 74 FR 32059 (July 7, 2009), appear at Title 10, Code
of Federal Regulations (CFR), sections 431.443, 431.444, and 431.445.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ These two parts were titled Parts B and C in EPCA, but were
codified as Parts A and A-1 in the United States Code for editorial
reasons.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Act defines ``small electric motor'' as follows:
[A] NEMA [National Electrical Manufacturers Association] general
purpose alternating current single-speed induction motor, built in a
two-digit frame number series in accordance with NEMA Standards
Publication MG1-1987.
(42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(G)) EPCA requires DOE to prescribe energy
conservation standards for those small electric motors for which DOE:
(1) Has determined that standards would be technologically feasible and
economically justified and would result in significant energy savings,
and (2) has prescribed test procedures. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)) However,
pursuant to section 346(b)(3) of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)), no
standard prescribed for small electric motors shall apply to any such
motor that is a component of a covered product under section 322(a) of
EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6292(a)), or of covered equipment under section 340 (42
U.S.C. 6311).
Additionally, EPCA requires DOE, in establishing standards for
small electric motors, to consider whether the standards themselves
will result in a significant conservation of energy, are
technologically feasible, and are cost effective as described in 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i). (42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) These criteria, along with
requirements that any standards be economically justified, are largely
incorporated into
[[Page 10878]]
42 U.S.C. 6295(o), which sets forth the criteria for prescribing
standards for ``covered products,'' i.e., consumer products as defined
in EPCA. (42 U.S.C. 6291(1) and (2)) Under 42 U.S.C. 6316(a), portions
of 42 U.S.C. 6295, including subsection (o), also apply when DOE
promulgates standards for certain specified commercial and industrial
equipment--``covered equipment'' as defined in EPCA (42 U.S.C.
6311(1))--including small electric motors. (EPCA states that the term
``equipment'' shall be substituted for ``product'' in applying the
consumer product-related provisions of EPCA to commercial and
industrial equipment. (42 U.S.C. 6316(a)(3))
Therefore, as indicated above, DOE analyzed whether today's
standards for small electric motors will achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and
economically justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)) Additionally, DOE
examined whether each of today's standards for this equipment is
economically justified, after receiving comments on the proposed
standards, by determining whether the benefits of the standard exceed
its burdens by considering, to the greatest extent practicable, the
following seven factors that are set forth in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i):
1. The economic impact of the standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the equipment subject to the standard;
2. The savings in operating costs throughout the estimated average
life of the covered equipment in the type (or class) compared to any
increase in the price, initial charges, or maintenance expenses for the
covered equipment that are likely to result from the imposition of the
standard;
3. The total projected amount of energy savings likely to result
directly from the imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the performance of the covered
equipment likely to result from the imposition of the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of competition, as determined in
writing by the Attorney General, that is likely to result from the
imposition of the standard;
6. The need for national energy conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary [of Energy] considers relevant.
In developing today's energy conservation standards, DOE also has
applied certain other provisions of 42 U.S.C. 6295 as it is required to
do. First, DOE would not prescribe a standard for small electric motors
if interested persons established by a preponderance of the evidence
that the standard is likely to result in the unavailability in the
United States of any type (or class) of this product with performance
characteristics, features, sizes, capacities, and volume that are
substantially the same as those generally available in the United
States. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(4))
Second, DOE has applied 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii), which
establishes a rebuttable presumption that a standard is economically
justified if the Secretary finds that ``the additional cost to the
consumer of purchasing a product complying with an energy conservation
standard level will be less than three times the value of the energy *
* * savings during the first year that the consumer will receive as a
result of the standard, as calculated under the applicable test
procedure.''
Third, in setting standards for a type or class of equipment that
has two or more subcategories, DOE specifies a different standard level
than that which applies generally to such type or class of equipment
``for any group of covered products which have the same function or
intended use, if * * * products within such group--(A) consume a
different kind of energy from that consumed by other covered products
within such type (or class); or (B) have a capacity or other
performance-related feature which other products within such type (or
class) do not have and such feature justifies a higher or lower
standard'' than applies or will apply to the other products. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)(1)) In determining whether a performance-related feature
justifies such a different standard for a group of products, DOE
considers such factors as the utility to the consumer of such a feature
and other factors DOE deems appropriate. Any rule prescribing such a
standard must include an explanation of the basis on which DOE
establishes such higher or lower level. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(2))
Federal energy efficiency requirements for equipment covered under
EPCA generally supersede State laws or regulations concerning energy
conservation testing, labeling, and standards. (42 U.S.C. 6297(a)-(c)
and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) DOE can, however, grant waivers of preemption
for particular State laws or regulations, in accordance with the
procedures and other provisions of section 327(d) of the Act. (42
U.S.C. 6297(d) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a))
B. Background
1. Current Energy Conservation Standards
As indicated above, at present there are no national energy
conservation standards for small electric motors.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for Small Electric Motors
To determine the small electric motors for which energy
conservation standards would be technologically feasible and
economically justified, and would result in significant energy savings,
DOE first concluded that the EPCA definition of ``small electric
motor'' covers only those motors that meet the definition's frame-size
requirements, and that are either three-phase, non-servo motors
(referred to below as polyphase motors) or single-phase, capacitor-
start motors, including both capacitor-start, induction run (CSIR) and
capacitor-start, capacitor-run (CSCR) motors. 71 FR 38799, 38800-01
(July 10, 2006). In June 2006, DOE issued a report in which it analyzed
and estimated the likely range of energy savings and economic benefits
that would result from standards for these motors.\2\ The report did
not address motors that are a component of a covered product or
equipment, consistent with 42 U.S.C. 6317. After receiving comments on
the report, DOE performed further analysis to determine whether
standards are warranted for small electric motors and then issued the
following determination on June 27, 2006:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/small_motors_tsd.pdf.
Based on its analysis of the information now available, the
Department [of Energy] has determined that energy conservation
standards for certain small electric motors appear to be
technologically feasible and economically justified, and are likely
to result in significant energy savings. Consequently, the
Department [of Energy] will initiate the development of energy
efficiency test procedures and standards for certain small electric
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
motors. 71 FR 38807.
Thereafter, in 2007, DOE initiated this rulemaking by issuing and
seeking public comment on the ``Energy Conservation Standards
Rulemaking Framework Document for Small Electric Motors,'' which
described the approaches DOE anticipated using to develop energy
conservation standards for small electric motors and the issues to be
resolved in the rulemaking. See 72 FR 44990 (August 10, 2007). This
document is also available on the aforementioned DOE Web site. On
September 13, 2007, DOE held a public
[[Page 10879]]
meeting to present the contents of the framework document, describe the
analyses DOE planned to conduct during the rulemaking, obtain public
comment on these subjects, and facilitate the public's involvement in
the rulemaking. Manufacturers, trade associations, electric utilities,
environmental advocates, regulators, and other interested parties
provided comments at this meeting, and submitted written comments, on
the Framework Document. They addressed a range of issues.
On December 19, 2008, after having considered these comments,
gathering additional information, and performing preliminary analyses
as to standards for small electric motors, DOE announced an informal
public meeting and the availability on its Web site of a preliminary
technical support document (preliminary TSD). 73 FR 79723 (December 30,
2008). The preliminary TSD discussed the comments DOE had received in
this rulemaking and described the actions DOE had taken, the analytical
framework DOE was using, and the content and results of DOE's
preliminary analyses. Id. at 79724-25. DOE's preliminary analyses were
largely based on comments received from industry; including those
focusing on what constitutes small electric motors and corresponding
shipment estimates. DOE convened the public meeting to discuss, and
receive comments on, these subjects, DOE's proposed product classes,
potential standard levels that DOE might consider, and other issues
participants believed were relevant to the rulemaking. Id. at 79723,
79725. DOE also invited written comments on all of these matters. The
public meeting took place on January 30, 2009. Eighteen interested
parties participated, and ten submitted written comments during the
comment period.
On November 24, 2009, DOE published a notice of proposed rulemaking
(NOPR) to establish small electric motor energy conservation standards.
74 FR 61410. Shortly after, DOE also published on its Web site the
complete technical support document (TSD) for the proposed rule, which
incorporated the completed analyses DOE conducted and technical
documentation for each analysis. These analyses were developed using,
in part, NEMA-supplied data. The TSD included the LCC spreadsheet, the
national impact analysis spreadsheet, and the manufacturer impact
analysis (MIA) spreadsheet--all of which are available at https://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html. The energy efficiency standards DOE proposed in
the NOPR were as follows:
Table II.1--Proposed Standard Levels for Polyphase Small Electric Motors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor output power Six poles Four poles Two poles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW........................................... 77.4 72.7 69.8
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW........................................... 79.1 75.6 73.7
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW............................................ 81.1 80.1 76.0
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW........................................... 84.0 83.5 81.6
1 Hp/0.75 kW.............................................. 84.2 85.2 83.6
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW............................................. 85.2 87.1 86.6
2 Hp/1.5 kW............................................... 89.2 88.0 88.2
>= 3 Hp/2.2 kW............................................ 90.8 90.0 90.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 5 for polyphase motors.
Table II.2--Proposed Standard Levels for Capacitor-Start Induction-Run Small Electric Motors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor output power Six poles Four poles Two poles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW........................................... 65.4 69.8 71.4
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW........................................... 70.7 72.8 74.2
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW............................................ 77.0 77.0 76.3
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW........................................... 81.0 80.9 78.1
1 Hp/0.75 kW.............................................. 84.1 82.8 80.0
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW............................................. 87.7 85.5 82.2
2 Hp/1.5 kW............................................... 89.8 86.5 85.0
>= 3 Hp/2.2 kW............................................ 92.2 88.9 85.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors.
Table II.3--Proposed Standard Levels for Capacitor-Start Capacitor-Run Small Electric Motors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor output power Six poles Four poles Two poles
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 Hp/0.18 kW........................................... 63.9 68.3 70.0
0.33 Hp/0.25 kW........................................... 69.2 71.6 72.9
0.5 Hp/0.37 kW............................................ 75.8 76.0 75.1
0.75 Hp/0.55 kW........................................... 79.9 80.3 77.0
1 Hp/0.75 kW.............................................. 83.2 82.0 79.0
1.5 Hp/1.1 kW............................................. 87.0 84.9 81.4
2 Hp/1.5 kW............................................... 89.1 86.1 84.2
>= 3 Hp/2.2 kW............................................ 91.7 88.5 84.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency.
** These efficiencies corresponded to NOPR Trial Standard Level 7 for capacitor-start motors.
[[Page 10880]]
In the NOPR, DOE also identified issues on which it was
particularly interested in receiving the comments and views of
interested parties. DOE requested comment on the proposed energy
efficiency levels for polyphase and single-phase motors, product
classes, covered insulation class systems, its selection of baseline
models, markups used in the engineering analysis, design option and
limitations used in the engineering analysis, the approach to scaling
the results of the engineering analysis, the proposed definition of
nominal efficiency, the manufacturer impact analysis scenarios, capital
investment costs used, market interaction between CSIR and CSCR motors,
market response to standards, behavior of customers with space
constraints, the combined effect of certain market assumptions, the
appropriateness of other discount rates besides seven and three percent
to discount future emissions, and the anticipated environmental
impacts. The NOPR also included additional background information on
the history of this rulemaking. 74 FR 61416-17.
DOE held a public meeting in Washington, DC on December 17, 2009,
to hear oral comments on, and solicit information relevant to, the
proposed rule. DOE has also received written comments and information
in response to the NOPR.
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
On July 7, 2009, DOE published a final rule that incorporated by
reference Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
(IEEE) Standard 112-2004 (Test Method A and Test Method B), IEEE
Standard 114-2001, and Canadian Standards Association Standard C747-94
as the DOE test procedures to measure energy efficiency small electric
motors. 74 FR 32059.
In addition to incorporating by reference the above industry
standard test procedures, the small electric motors test procedure
final rule also codified the statutory definition for the term ``small
electric motor;'' clarified the definition of the term ``basic model'';
and the relationship of the term to certain product classes and
compliance certification reporting requirements; and codified the
ability of manufacturers to use an alternative efficiency determination
method (AEDM) to reduce testing burden when certifying their equipment
as compliant but maintaining efficiency measurement accuracy and
ensuring compliance with potential future energy conservation
standards. The test procedure notice also discussed matters of
laboratory accreditation, compliance certification, and enforcement of
energy conservation standards for small electric motors.
DOE notes that complete certification and enforcement provisions
for small electric motors have not yet been developed. DOE intends to
propose such provisions in a separate test procedure supplementary
NOPR, at which time DOE will invite comments on how small electric
motor efficiency standards can be effectively enforced. Section V.B of
this final rule summarizes comments received in response to the NOPR
that will be further addressed in the test procedure supplemental NOPR.
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
As stated above, any standards that DOE establishes for small
electric motors must be technologically feasible. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(A); 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) DOE considers a design option to be
technologically feasible if it is in use by the respective industry or
if research has progressed to the development of a working prototype.
``Technologies incorporated in commercially available equipment or in
working prototypes will be considered technologically feasible.'' 10
CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, section 4(a)(4)(i). This final
rule considers the same design options as those evaluated in the NOPR.
(See chapter 5 of the TSD.) All the evaluated technologies have been
used (or are being used) in commercially available products or working
prototypes. Therefore, DOE has determined that all of the efficiency
levels evaluated in this notice are technologically feasible.
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
As required by EPCA, (42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(1) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)),
in developing the NOPR, DOE identified the efficiency levels that would
achieve the maximum improvements in energy efficiency that are
technologically feasible (max-tech levels) for small electric motors.
74 FR 61418. Table III.1 lists the max-tech levels that DOE determined
for this rulemaking. DOE identified these levels as part of the
engineering analysis (chapter 5 of the TSD), using the most efficient
design parameters that lead to the highest full-load efficiencies for
small electric motors.
Table III.1--Max-Tech Efficiency Levels for Representative Product Classes *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Motor category Poles Horsepower Efficiency %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Polyphase............................................. 4 1 87.7
CSIR.................................................. 4 0.5 77.6
CSCR.................................................. 4 0.75 87.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* These max-tech efficiency levels are only for the representative product classes described in section IV.C.2.
Max-tech efficiency levels for the remaining product classes are determined using the scaling methodology
outlined in section IV.C.5.
DOE developed maximum technologically feasible efficiencies by
creating motor designs for each product class analyzed, which use all
the viable design options that DOE considered. The efficiency levels
shown in Table III.1 correspond to designs that use a maximum increase
in stack length, a copper rotor design, a premium electrical steel
(Hiperco 50), a maximum slot-fill percentage (65-percent), a change in
run-capacitor rating (CSCR motors only), and an optimized end ring
design. All of the design options used to create these max-tech motors
remain in the analysis and are options that DOE considers
technologically feasible.
C. Energy Savings
DOE forecasted energy savings in its national energy savings (NES)
analysis, through the use of an NES spreadsheet tool, as discussed in
the NOPR. 74 FR 61418, 61440-42, 61470-72.
One of the criteria that govern DOE's adoption of standards for
small electric motors is that the standard must result in
``significant'' energy savings. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)) While the term
``significant'' is not defined by EPCA, a D.C. Circuit indicated that
Congress intended ``significant'' energy savings to be savings that
were not ``genuinely
[[Page 10881]]
trivial.'' Natural Resources Defense Council v. Herrington, 768 F.2d
1355, 1373 (D.C. Cir. 1985) The energy savings for the standard levels
DOE is adopting today are non-trivial, and therefore DOE considers them
``significant'' as required by 42 U.S.C. 6317.
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
The following section discusses how DOE has addressed each of the
seven factors that it uses to determine if energy conservation
standards are economically justified.
a. Economic Impact on Motor Customers and Manufacturers
DOE considered the economic impact of today's new standards on
purchasers and manufacturers of small electric motors. For purchasers
of small electric motors, DOE measured the economic impact as the
change in installed cost and life-cycle operating costs, i.e., the LCC.
(See section IV.F of this preamble, and chapter 12 of the TSD.) DOE
investigated the impacts on manufacturers through the manufacturer
impact analysis (MIA). (See sections IV.I and VI.C.2 of this preamble
and chapter 13 of the TSD.) The economic impact on purchasers and
manufacturers is discussed in detail in the NOPR. 74 FR 61418-19,
61436-40, 61442-46, and 61454-70.
b. Life-Cycle Costs
DOE considered life-cycle costs of small electric motors, as
discussed in the NOPR. 74 FR 61436-40, 61442, 61454-64. In considering
these costs, DOE calculated the sum of the purchase price and the
operating expense--discounted over the lifetime of the equipment--to
estimate the range in LCC savings that small motors purchasers would
expect to achieve due to the standards.
c. Energy Savings
Although significant conservation of energy is a separate statutory
requirement for imposing an energy conservation standard, EPCA also
requires DOE, in determining the economic justification of a standard,
to consider the total projected energy savings that are expected to
result directly from the standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III) and
42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) As in the NOPR (74 FR 61440-42, 61470-72), for
today's final rule, DOE used the NES spreadsheet results in its
consideration of total projected energy savings that are directly
attributable to the standard levels DOE considered.
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of Equipment
In selecting today's standard levels, DOE avoided selection of
standards that lessen the utility or performance of the equipment under
consideration in this rulemaking. (See 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV)
and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) 74 FR 61419, 61476. The efficiency levels DOE
considered maintain both motor performance and power factor in order to
preserve consumer utility. DOE considered end-user size constraints by
developing designs with size increase restrictions (limited to a 20-
percent increase in stack length), as well as designs with less
stringent constraints (100-percent increase in stack length). The
designs adhering to the 20-percent increase in stack length maintain
all aspects of consumer utility and were created for all efficiency
levels, but these designs may become very expensive at higher
efficiency levels when compared with DOE's other designs.
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
DOE considered any lessening of competition that is likely to
result from standards. As discussed in the NOPR, 74 FR 61419, 61476,
and as required under EPCA, DOE requested that the Attorney General
transmit to the Secretary a written determination of the impact, if
any, of any lessening of competition likely to result from the
standards proposed in the NOPR, together with an analysis of the nature
and extent of such impact. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (B)(ii)
and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a))
To assist the Attorney General in making such a determination, DOE
provided the Department of Justice (DOJ) with copies of the November
24, 2009 proposed rule and the NOPR TSD for review. The Attorney
General's response is discussed in IV.F.7 below, and is reprinted at
the end of this rule. DOJ concluded that TSL 5 for polyphase small
electric motors and TSL 7 for single-phase small electric motors are
likely to affect the replacement market for certain applications. DOJ
requested that DOE consider this potential impact and, as warranted,
allow exemptions from the proposed standard levels the manufacture and
marketing of certain replacement small electric motors.
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
In considering standards for small electric motors, the Secretary
must consider the need of the Nation to conserve energy. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)) The Secretary recognizes
that energy conservation benefits the Nation in several important ways.
The non-monetary benefits of the standard are likely to be reflected in
improvements to the security and reliability of the Nation's energy
system. Today's standard will also result in environmental benefits. As
discussed in the NOPR, 74 FR 61419, 61447-61453, 61476-61484, and in
section VI.C.6 of this final rule, DOE considered these factors in
adopting today's standards.
g. Other Factors
The Secretary of Energy, in determining whether a standard is
economically justified, considers any other factors that the Secretary
of Energy deems relevant. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VII) and 42
U.S.C. 6316(a)) In adopting today's standards, the Secretary considered
the following: (1) Harmonization of standards for small electric motors
with existing standards under EPCA for medium-sized polyphase general
purpose motors; (2) the impact, on consumers who need to use CSIR
motors, and on the prices for such motors at potential standard levels;
and (3) the potential for standards to reduce reactive power demand and
thereby lower costs for supplying electricity.\3\ 74 FR 61419-20,
61484. These issues are addressed in section VI.C.7 below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ In an alternating current power system, the reactive power
is the root mean square (RMS) voltage multiplied by the RMS current,
multiplied by the sine of the phase difference between the voltage
and the current. Reactive power occurs when the inductance or
capacitance of the load shifts the phase of the voltage relative to
the phase of the current. While reactive power does not consume
energy, it can increase losses and costs for the electricity
distribution system. Motors tend to create reactive power because
the windings in the motor coils have high inductance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Rebuttable Presumption
Section 325(o)(2)(B)(iii) of EPCA states that there is a rebuttable
presumption that an energy conservation standard is economically
justified if the increased installed cost for a product that meets the
standard is less than three times the value of the first-year energy
savings resulting from the standard, as calculated under the applicable
DOE test procedure. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a)) DOE's LCC and payback period (PBP) analyses generate values
that calculate the PBP of potential energy conservation standards. The
calculation includes, but is not limited to, the three-year PBP
contemplated under the rebuttable presumption test just described.
However, DOE routinely
[[Page 10882]]
conducts a full economic analysis that considers the full range of
impacts, including those to the customer, manufacturer, Nation, and
environment, as required under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(a). The results of this analysis serve as the basis for DOE to
evaluate definitively the economic justification for a potential
standard level (thereby supporting or rebutting any presumption of
economic justification).
IV. Methodology and Discussion of Comments on Methodology
DOE used several analytical tools that it developed previously and
adapted for use in this rulemaking. One is a spreadsheet that
calculates LCC and PBP. Another tool calculates national energy savings
and national NPV that would result from the adoption of energy
conservation standards. DOE also used the Government Regulatory Impact
Model (GRIM), along with other data obtained from interviews with
manufacturers, in its MIA to determine the impacts of standards on
manufacturers. Finally, DOE developed an approach using the National
Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to estimate impacts of standards for
small electric motors on electric utilities and the environment. The
NOPR discusses each of these analytical tools in detail, 74 FR 61420,
61436-53, as does the TSD.
As a basis for this final rule, DOE has continued to use the
spreadsheets and approaches explained in the NOPR. DOE used the same
general methodology as applied in the NOPR, but revised some of the
assumptions and inputs for the final rule in response to public
comments. DOE also added new analysis based on the comments it received
from interested parties. The following paragraphs address these
revisions.
A. Market and Technology Assessment
When beginning an energy conservation standards rulemaking, DOE
develops information that provides an overall picture of the market for
the equipment concerned, including the purpose of the equipment, the
industry structure, and market characteristics. This activity includes
both quantitative and qualitative assessments based primarily on
publicly available information. The subjects addressed in the market
and technology assessment for this rulemaking include scope of
coverage, product classes, manufacturers, quantities, and types of
equipment sold and offered for sale; retail market trends; and
regulatory and non-regulatory programs. See chapter 3 of the TSD for
further discussion of the market and technology assessment.
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
EPCA defines a small electric motor as ``a NEMA general purpose
alternating current single-speed induction motor, built in a two-digit
frame number series in accordance with NEMA Standards Publication MG1-
1987.'' 42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(G). NEMA Standards Publication MG1-1987 is
an industry guidance document that addresses, among other things,
various aspects related to small and medium electric motors. As denoted
in the title, this version of MG1 was prepared in 1987, more than 20
years before the date of today's final rule. NEMA has since published
updated versions of this document, the latest of which was released in
2006. Of particular significance is the difference in what was
considered in 1987 a general purpose, alternating current motor (only
open construction motors) compared to what NEMA currently considers a
general purpose alternating current motor (both open and enclosed
construction motors).\4\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ An open motor is constructed with ventilating openings that
permit external cooling air to pass over and around the windings of
the motor. An enclosed motor is constructed to prevent the free
exchange of air between the inside and outside of the housing.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE explained its view in the NOPR as to how it currently reads 42
U.S.C. 6311(13)(G). 74 FR 61421. DOE indicated that the statute refers
to MG1-1987 for purposes of ascertaining what constitutes a small
electric motor. The agency explained and articulated certain
assumptions in the NOPR regarding the scope of categories of motors,
frame sizes, performance characteristics, insulation systems, and motor
enclosures that it examined within the proposed scope of this
rulemaking.
DOE received several comments criticizing the scope of DOE's
coverage in its analyses. Manufacturers indicated that DOE's scope was
too broad because, in their view, many of the motors DOE examined in
ascertaining the energy savings potential for small electric motors,
were not small electric motors under MG1-1987. For example, Emerson
commented that in order for standards to be enforceable, DOE should
adhere strictly to MG1-1