Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Small Electric Motors, 61410-61500 [E9-27914]
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Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket Number EERE–2007–BT–STD–
0007]
RIN 1904–AB70
Energy Conservation Program: Energy
Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors
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AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking
and public meeting.
SUMMARY: The Energy Policy and
Conservation Act authorizes the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) to establish
energy conservation standards for
various consumer products and
commercial and industrial equipment.
Such equipment includes those small
electric motors for which DOE
determines that energy conservation
standards would be technologically
feasible and economically justified, and
would result in significant energy
savings. In this notice, DOE proposes
energy conservation standards for
certain small electric motors and is
announcing a public meeting.
DATES: Public meeting: DOE will hold a
public meeting on Thursday, December
17, 2009, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., in
Washington, DC. DOE must receive
requests to speak at the public meeting
before 4 p.m., Thursday, December 3,
2009. DOE must receive a signed
original and an electronic copy of
statements to be given at the public
meeting before 4 p.m., Thursday,
December 10, 2009.
Comments: DOE will also accept
written comments, data, and
information regarding this notice of
proposed rulemaking (NOPR) before and
after the public meeting, but received no
later than January 25, 2010. See section
VII, ‘‘Public Participation,’’ of this
NOPR for details.
ADDRESSES: The public meeting will be
held at the U.S. Department of Energy,
Forrestal Building, Room 8E–089, 1000
Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585. Please note that
foreign nationals visiting DOE
Headquarters are subject to advance
security screening procedures, requiring
a 30-day advance notice. If you are a
foreign national and wish to participate
in the workshop, please inform DOE of
this fact as soon as possible by
contacting Ms. Brenda Edwards at (202)
586–2945 so that the necessary
procedures can be completed.
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Any comments submitted must
identify the NOPR for Energy
Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors, and provide the docket
number EERE–2007–BT–STD–0007
and/or regulatory information number
(RIN) number 1904–AB70. Comments
may be submitted using any of the
following methods:
• Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://
www.regulations.gov. Follow the
instructions for submitting comments.
• E-mail: small_electric_motors_std.
rulemaking@hq.doe.gov. Include the
docket number and/or RIN in the
subject line of the message.
• Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S.
Department of Energy, Building
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE–2J,
1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121. Please
submit one signed original paper copy.
• Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda
Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy,
Building Technologies Program, 950
L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite 600,
Washington, DC 20024. Telephone:
(202) 586–2945. Please submit one
signed original paper copy.
For detailed instructions on
submitting comments and additional
information on the rulemaking process,
see section VII of this document (Public
Participation).
Docket: For access to the docket to
read background documents or
comments received, visit the U.S.
Department of Energy, Resource Room
of the Building Technologies Program,
950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite 600,
Washington, DC, (202) 586–2945,
between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., Monday
through Friday, except Federal holidays.
Please call Ms. Brenda Edwards at the
above telephone number for additional
information regarding visiting the
Resource Room. Please note: DOE’s
Freedom of Information Reading Room
is no longer housing rulemaking
materials.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr.
James Raba, U.S. Department of Energy,
Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program, EE–2J, 1000
Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121, (202) 586–
8654, e-mail: Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Michael Kido, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of General Counsel, GC–
72, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585, (202) 586–9507,
e-mail: Michael.Kido@hq.doe.gov.
For information on how to submit or
review public comments and on how to
participate in the public meeting,
contact Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S.
Department of Energy, Office of Energy
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Efficiency and Renewable Energy,
Building Technologies Program, EE–2J,
1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585–0121.
Telephone: (202) 586–2945. E-mail:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Summary of the Proposed Rule
II. Introduction
A. Consumer Overview
B. Authority
C. Background
1. Current Standards
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Small Electric Motors
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
C. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
2. Significance of Savings
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers and
Consumers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Products
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
a. Motor Categories
b. Motor Enclosures
c. Service Factors
d. Insulation Class Systems
e. Metric Equivalents
f. Frame Sizes
g. Horsepower Ratings
2. Product Classes
B. Screening Analysis
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Approach
2. Product Classes Analyzed
3. Cost Model
4. Baseline Models
5. Design Options and Limitations
a. Manufacturability
b. Motor Size
c. Service Factor
d. Skew and Stay-Load Loss
e. Air Gap
f. Power Factor
g. Speed
h. Thermal Performance
i. Slot Fill
j. Current and Torque Characteristics
6. Scaling Methodology
7. Nominal Efficiency
8. Cost-Efficiency Results
D. Markups To Determine Equipment Price
1. Distribution Channels
2. Estimation of Markups
3. Summary of Markups
E. Energy Use Characterization
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analysis
1. Baseline and Standard Level Efficiencies
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2. Installed Equipment Cost
3. Motor Applications
4. Annual Operating Hours and Energy Use
5. Space Constraints
6. Power Factor
7. Energy Prices
8. Energy Price Trend
9. Maintenance and Repair Costs
10. Equipment Lifetime
11. Discount Rate
12. Standard Effective Date
G. National Impact Analysis—National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
Analysis
1. Shipments
H. Consumer Sub-Group Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
2. Phase 1, Industry Profile
3. Phase 2, Industry Cash-Flow Analysis
4. Phase 3, Sub-Group Impact Analysis
5. Government Regulatory Impact Model
Analysis
6. Manufacturer Interviews
7. Government Regulatory Impact Model
Key Inputs and Scenarios
a. Base-Case Shipments Forecast
b. Standards-Case Shipments Forecast
c. Manufacturing Production Costs
d. Manufacturing Markup Scenarios
e. Equipment and Capital Conversion Costs
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
L. Environmental Analysis
1. Power Sector Emissions
2. Valuation of CO2 Emissions
3. Valuation of Other Emissions
V. Analytical Results
A. Trial Standard Levels
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B. Economic Justification and Energy
Savings
1. Economic Impacts on Customers
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity Calculations
c. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Direct Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Manufacturer Subgroups
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Impact Analysis
a. Significance of Energy Savings
b. Net Present Value
c. Impacts on Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
Products
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
C. Proposed Standard
1. Polyphase Small Electric Motors
2. Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility
Act
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction
Act
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act of 1999
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I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act of 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality
Bulletin for Peer Review
VII. Public Participation
A. Attendance at Public Meeting
B. Procedure for Submitting Requests To
Speak
C. Conduct of Public Meeting
D. Submission of Comments
E. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Proposed Rule
Pursuant to the Energy Policy and
Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6291 et
seq.), as amended, (EPCA or the Act),
the Department of Energy (DOE) is
proposing new energy conservation
standards for capacitor-start and
polyphase small electric motors. These
standards would achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified for this
equipment, and would result in
significant conservation of energy. The
proposed standards are shown in Table
I.1, Table I.2, and Table I.3, and would
apply to all equipment manufactured in,
or imported into, the United States on
and after 5 years following the
publication of the final rule.
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DOE’s analyses indicate that the
proposed standards would save a
significant amount of energy—an
estimated 2.46 quads of cumulative
energy over 30 years (2015–2045). Of
this, 2.13 quads of savings result from
standards on capacitor-start (singlephase) motors and 0.33 quads of savings
result from standards on polyphase
motors.1 The energy savings results for
single-phase motors represent the
combined effect of standards on the
1 A polyphase motor is an electric motor that uses
three-phase electricity and the phase changes of the
electrical supply to induce a rotational magnetic
field, thereby supplying torque to the rotor.
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capacitor-start, induction-run (CSIR) 2
and capacitor-start, capacitor-run
(CSCR) 3 motors markets, because
general purpose CSIR and CSCR motors
generally meet similar performance
criteria and can often be used in the
same applications.4 The amount of
2 A capacitor-start induction-run motor is a
single-phase motor with a main winding arranged
for direct connection to a source of power and an
auxiliary winding connected in series with a
capacitor. The motor has a capacitor phase, which
is in the circuit only during the starting period.
3 A capacitor-start capacitor-run motor is a singlephase motor which has different values of effective
capacitance for the starting and running conditions.
4 Polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR motors can be found
in a range of applications including, but not limited
to the following: Pumps, blowers, fans,
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projected energy savings is equivalent to
the total energy 7.8 million U.S. citizens
use in 1 year. The economic impacts on
owners (hereafter ‘‘customers’’) of
equipment containing single-phase
small electric motors—i.e., the average
life-cycle cost (LCC) savings—are
positive. Polyphase small electric motor
customers experience, on average, small
LCC increases as a result of the
standard.
The cumulative national net present
value (NPV) of total customer costs and
savings from the proposed standards
from 2015 to 2065 in 2008$ ranges from
compressors, conveyors and general industrial
equipment.
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$1.53 billion (at a 7-percent discount
rate) to $14.15 billion (at a 3-percent
discount rate). This is the estimated
total value of future operating-cost
savings minus the estimated increased
equipment costs, discounted to 2009. If
DOE were to adopt the proposed
standards, it expects a ¥12.86 percent
to 10.69 percent change in manufacturer
industry net present value (INPV) for
single-phase motors and ¥13.8 percent
to 16.9 percent change in manufacturer
INPV for polyphase motors, which is
approximately ¥$44.67 to $40.70
million total. As a result, the NPV for
customers (at the 7-percent discount
rate) of $1.53 billion would thus exceed
industry losses by about 33 times.
Additionally, based on DOE’s
interviews with the major
manufacturers of small electric motors,
DOE does not expect any plant closings
or loss of employment. The major small
electric motor manufacturers include:
A.O. Smith Electrical Products
Company, Baldor Electric Company,
Emerson Motor Technologies, RegalBeloit Corporation, and WEG. Except for
WEG, all of these manufacturers are
U.S.-based. WEG is based in Brazil.
The proposed standards would have
significant environmental benefits. All
of the energy saved would be in the
form of electricity. DOE expects the
energy savings to eliminate the need for
approximately 2.49 gigawatts (GW) of
generating capacity by 2030. The
reduction in electricity generation
would result in cumulative
(undiscounted) greenhouse gas emission
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reductions of 124.8 million tons (Mt) of
carbon dioxide (CO2) from 2015 to 2045.
During this period, the standard would
result in power plant emission
reductions of 89.6 kilotons (kt) of
nitrogen oxides (NOX) and 0.561 tons of
mercury (Hg). These reductions have a
value of up to $2,737 million for CO2,
$67.7 million for NOX, and $5.31
million for Hg, at a discount rate of
7-percent.
The benefits and costs of today’s
proposed rule can also be expressed in
terms of annualized (2008$) values from
2015–2045. Estimates of annualized
values are shown in Table I.4. The
annualized monetary values are the sum
of the annualized national economic
value of operating savings benefits
(energy, maintenance and repair),
expressed in 2008$, plus the monetary
value of the benefits of CO2 emission
reductions, otherwise known as the
Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), expressed
as $20 per metric ton of CO2, in 2008$.
The $20 value is a central interim value
from a recent interagency process. The
monetary benefits of cumulative
emissions reductions are reported in
2008$ so that they can be compared
with the other costs and benefits in the
same dollar units. The derivation of this
value is discussed in section V.B.6.
Although comparing the value of
operating savings to the value of CO2
reductions provides a valuable
perspective, please note the following:
(1) The national operating savings are
domestic U.S. consumer monetary
savings found in market transactions
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while the CO2 value of reductions is
based on a central value from a range of
estimates of imputed marginal SCC from
$5 to $56 per metric ton (2008$), which
are meant to reflect the global benefits
of CO2 reductions; and (2) the
assessments of operating savings and
CO2 savings are performed with
different computer models, leading to
different time frames for analysis. The
national operating cost savings is
measured for the lifetime of small
electric motors shipped in the 31-year
period 2015–2045. The value of CO2, on
the other hand, is meant to reflect the
present value of all future climate
related impacts, even those beyond
2065.
Using a 7-percent discount rate for the
annualized cost analysis, the combined
cost of the standards proposed in
today’s proposed rule for small electric
motors is $515.4 million per year in
increased equipment and installation
costs, while the annualized benefits are
$923.1 million per year in reduced
equipment operating costs and $97.8
million in CO2 reductions, for a net
benefit of $505.5 million per year. Using
a 3-percent discount rate, the cost of the
standards proposed in today’s proposed
rule is $514.0 million per year in
increased equipment and installation
costs, while the benefits of today’s
standards are $1,071.5 million per year
in reduced operating costs and $131.8
million in CO2 reductions, for a net
benefit of $689.3 million per year.
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DOE has tentatively concluded that
the proposed standards represent the
maximum improvement in energy
efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified and
would result in significant conservation
of energy. Based on the analyses
culminating in this proposal, DOE
found the benefits (energy savings,
consumer LCC savings, national NPV
increase, and emission reductions)
outweigh the burdens (loss of INPV and
LCC increases for some small electric
motor users). For a discussion of the
energy savings and NPV results, see
TSD chapter 10. For LCC results, see
TSD chapter 8. For emissions
reductions, see TSD chapter 15. For
INPV, see TSD chapter 12.
DOE considered higher efficiency
levels as trial standard levels, and is still
considering them in this rulemaking;
however, DOE has tentatively
concluded that the burdens of the
higher efficiency levels would outweigh
the benefits. Based on consideration of
public comments DOE receives in
response to this notice and related
information, DOE may adopt either
higher or lower efficiency levels than
those presented in this proposal or some
level(s) in between.
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II. Introduction
A. Consumer Overview
Currently, no mandatory Federal
energy conservation standards apply to
small electric motors. DOE is proposing
standards for the small motors shown in
Table I.1, Table I.2, and Table I.3. The
proposed standards would apply to
equipment manufactured for sale in the
United States, beginning 5 years after
the final rule is published in the Federal
Register. The final rule is expected to be
published by February 28, 2010;
therefore, the effective date would be
February 28, 2015.
The proposed standards represent an
overall reduction of approximately 40
percent in motor energy losses. The
capacitor-start induction-run (CSIR)
standards represent a 45-percent
reduction in losses for a 0.5 hp CSIR
motor, relative to the current market
average. The capacitor-start capacitorrun (CSCR) standards represent a 37percent reduction in losses for a 0.75 hp
CSCR motor. The polyphase standards
represent a 45-percent reduction in
losses for a 1 hp polyphase motor.
DOE’s analyses indicate that
commercial and industrial customers
would benefit from the proposed
standards. Although DOE expects the
installed cost of the higher-efficiency
small motors to be greater (ranging from
9 percent for a 0.75 hp CSCR motor to
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26 percent for a 1 hp polyphase motor
than the average price of this equipment
today, the energy efficiency gains will
result in lower energy costs. A 0.5 hp
CSIR customer will save an average of
$25 per year on energy costs compared
with an annual cost of losses of a
baseline CSIR motor of $48 per year,
while a 1 hp polyphase customer will
save an average of $10 per year
compared to an operational cost of
motor losses of $34 per year for a
baseline motor. A 0.75 hp CSCR
customer will save $36 per year on their
energy bill compared with a baseline
CSCR motor that costs $57 per year in
losses to operate on average. DOE
estimates that the median payback
period (PBP) for equipment meeting the
proposed standards will be
approximately 5 to 14 years. When these
savings are summed over the lifetime of
the higher efficiency equipment (and
discounted to the present), a 0.5 hp
CSIR consumer will save $49, on
average, compared to a baseline 0.5 hp
CSIR motor. A 0.75 hp CSCR consumer
will save $28, on average, compared to
a baseline CSCR motor, and $121, on
average, compared to a baseline 0.75 hp
CSIR motor. A consumer who purchases
a 1 hp polyphase motor will experience
an average net increase of $38 relative
to the $1,274 life-cycle cost of a baseline
polyphase small electric motor.
DOE estimates that even though there
will be a net national savings from the
standard, a majority of motor customers
may not receive net life-cycle cost
benefits. This is because many small
electric motors are installed in
applications where the motor is running
only a few hours per day. On the other
hand, because a substantial minority of
motors is running at nearly all hours of
the day and are replaced more often
than motors that run infrequently, these
motors obtain relatively large savings
from the standard and yield positive net
benefits from the standard.
B. Authority
Title III of EPCA sets forth a variety
of provisions designed to improve
energy efficiency. Part A of Title III (42
U.S.C. 6291–6309) provides for the
Energy Conservation Program for
Consumer Products Other Than
Automobiles. Part A–1 of Title III (42
U.S.C. 6311–6317) establishes a similar
program for certain types of commercial
and industrial equipment, which
includes small electric motors.5 DOE
publishes today’s notice of proposed
rulemaking (NOPR) pursuant to Part
5 These two parts were titled Parts B and C, but
were redesignated as Parts A and A–1 by the United
States Code for editorial reasons.
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A–1, which provides definitions, test
procedures, labeling provisions, energy
conservation standards, and the
authority to require information and
reports from manufacturers. The test
procedures DOE recently adopted for
small electric motors, 74 FR 32059 (July
7, 2009), appear at Title 10 Code of
Federal Regulations (CFR) sections
431.343 and 431.344.
The Act defines ‘‘small electric
motors’’ as follows:
The term ‘‘small electric motor’’ means a
NEMA [National Electrical Manufacturers
Association] general purpose alternating
current single-speed induction motor, built
in a two-digit frame number series in
accordance with NEMA Standards
Publication MG1–1987.
(42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(F))
Moreover, pursuant to section
346(b)(3) of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)),
no standard prescribed for small electric
motors shall apply to any such motor
that is a component of a covered
product under section 322(a) of EPCA
(42 U.S.C. 6292(a)) or of covered
equipment under section 340 (42 U.S.C.
6311).
EPCA provides several criteria that
govern adoption of new standards for
small electric motors. After reviewing
any comments received regarding
today’s notice, DOE will evaluate the
information before it and decide
whether today’s proposed standards
meet those criteria and are economically
justified by determining whether the
benefits of the standard exceed its
burdens. DOE will make this
determination by considering, to the
greatest extent practicable, using the
following seven factors set forth in 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i):
1. The economic impact of the
standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the equipment subject to
the standard;
2. The savings in operating costs
throughout the estimated average life of
the covered equipment in the type (or
class) compared to any increase in the
price, initial charges, or maintenance
expenses for the covered equipment that
are likely to result from the imposition
of the standard;
3. The total projected energy savings
likely to result directly from the
imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the
performance of the covered equipment
likely to result from the imposition of
the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of
competition, as determined in writing
by the attorney general, that is likely to
result from the imposition of the
standard;
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6. The need for national energy
conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary
considers relevant.
42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)–(VII)
Additionally, pursuant to 42 U.S.C.
6317(c), DOE will consider the criteria
outlined in 42 U.S.C. 6295(n)—whether
the standards will result in a significant
conservation of energy, are
technologically feasible, and are cost
effective as described in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(II) (see criterion 2 listed
above). These criteria are largely folded
into the seven criteria that DOE
routinely analyzes as part of its
standards rulemaking analyses.
Accordingly, DOE will continue to
conduct its more comprehensive
analyses under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o) as part
of this rulemaking.
DOE also notes that today’s notice
concerns types of ‘‘covered equipment’’
as defined in EPCA (42 U.S.C.
6311(1)(A)), rather than ‘‘covered
products’’ as defined in EPCA (42 U.S.C.
6291(2)). Under 42 U.S.C. 6316(a), the
criteria for prescribing new standards
for consumer products (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)) apply when promulgating
standards for certain specified
commercial and industrial equipment,
including small electric motors. EPCA
substitutes the term ‘‘equipment’’ for
‘‘product’’ when the latter term appears
in consumer product-related provisions
that EPCA also applies to commercial
and industrial equipment. (See 42
U.S.C. 6316(a)(3).)
In developing energy conservation
standards for small electric motors, DOE
is also applying certain other provisions
of 42 U.S.C. 6295. First, DOE will not
prescribe a standard if interested parties
have established by a preponderance of
evidence that the standard is likely to
result in the unavailability in the United
States of any covered equipment type
(or class) with performance
characteristics, features, sizes,
capacities, and volume that are
substantially the same as those generally
available in the United States. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(4))
Second, DOE is applying 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii), which establishes a
rebuttable presumption that a standard
is economically justified if the Secretary
finds that ‘‘the additional cost to the
consumer of purchasing a product
complying with an energy conservation
standard level will be less than three
times the value of the energy * * *
savings during the first year that the
consumer will receive as a result of the
standard, as calculated under the
applicable test procedure. * * *’’ in
place for that standard.
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Third, in setting standards for a type
or class of covered product that has two
or more subcategories, DOE will specify
a different standard level than that
which applies generally to such type or
class of equipment ‘‘for any group of
covered products which have the same
function or intended use, if * * *
products within such group–(A)
consume a different kind of energy from
that consumed by other covered
products within such type (or class); or
(B) have a capacity or other
performance-related feature which other
products within such type (or class) do
not have and such feature justifies a
higher or lower standard’’ than applies
or will apply to the other products. (See
42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(1).) In determining
whether a performance-related feature
justifies a different standard for a group
of products, DOE considers such factors
as the utility to the consumer of such a
feature and other factors DOE deems
appropriate. Any rule prescribing such
a standard will include an explanation
of the basis on which DOE established
such higher or lower level. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(q)(2))
Federal energy efficiency
requirements for equipment covered by
42 U.S.C. 6317 generally supersede
State laws or regulations concerning
energy conservation testing, labeling,
and standards. (42 U.S.C. 6297(a)–(c)
and 6316(a)) DOE can, however, grant
waivers of preemption for particular
State laws or regulations, in accordance
with the procedures and other
provisions of section 327(d) of the Act.
(42 U.S.C. 6297(d) and 6316(a))
C. Background
1. Current Standards
As indicated above, there are no
national energy conservation standards
prescribed for small electric motors.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for
Small Electric Motors
Pursuant to the requirements of the
Energy Policy Act of 1992 (Pub. L. 102–
486), DOE began to gather and analyze
information to determine whether
standards for small electric motors
would meet its criteria. DOE began its
determination analysis, by examining
what motors were covered and
concluded that the EPCA definition of
‘‘small electric motor’’ covers only those
motors that meet the definition’s framesize requirements and are either threephase, non-servo motors (polyphase
motors) or single-phase, capacitor-start
motors, including both CSIR and CSCR
motors. 71 FR 38799, 38800–01 (July 10,
2006). DOE reached this conclusion
because only these motor categories can
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meet the performance requirements set
forth for general-purpose alternatingcurrent motors by NEMA MG1–1987.
DOE then analyzed the likely range of
energy savings and economic benefits
that would result from energy
conservation standards for these small
motors, and prepared a report
describing its analysis and provided its
projected estimated energy savings from
potential standards. In June 2006, DOE
made the report, ‘‘Determination
Analysis Technical Support Document:
Analysis of Energy Conservation
Standards for Small Electric Motors,’’
available for public comment at https://
www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/commercial/
small_electric_motors.html.
Pursuant to section 346(b)(3) of EPCA
(42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)), the analysis did
not include motors that are a component
of a covered product or equipment.
Also, the report made no
recommendation as to what
determination DOE should make. DOE
received comments concerning this
analysis from NEMA, the Small Motors
and Motion Association (SMMA, now
the Motors and Motion Association),
and the American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE).
Thereafter, DOE analyzed whether
significant energy savings would result
from energy conservation standards for
the small electric motors considered in
its previous analysis, and incorporated
the results of this additional analysis
into a technical support document
(TSD). Based on these results, DOE
issued the following determination on
June 27, 2006:
Based on its analysis of the information
now available, the Department [of Energy]
has determined that energy conservation
standards for certain small electric motors
appear to be technologically feasible and
economically justified, and are likely to
result in significant energy savings.
Consequently, DOE will initiate the
development of energy efficiency test
procedures and standards for certain small
electric motors. 71 FR 38807.
DOE initiated this rulemaking to
develop standards and another
rulemaking to develop test procedures
for small motors. DOE began this
rulemaking by publishing ‘‘Energy
Conservation Standards Rulemaking
Framework Document for Small Electric
Motors’’ on https://www.eere.energy.gov/
buildings/appliance_standards/
commercial/pdfs/
small_motors_framework_073007.pdf.
DOE also published a notice
announcing the availability of the
framework document and a public
meeting on the document, and
requesting public comments on the
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matters raised in the document. 72 FR
44990 (August 10, 2007).
On September 13, 2007, DOE held the
public meeting at which it presented the
contents of the framework document,
described the analyses it planned to
conduct during the rulemaking, sought
comments from interested parties on
these subjects, and sought to inform
interested parties about, and facilitate
their involvement in, the rulemaking.
Interested parties that participated in
the public meeting discussed eight
major issues: the scope of covered small
electric motors, definitions, test
procedures, horsepower, and kilowatt
equivalency, DOE’s engineering
analysis, life-cycle costs, efficiency
levels, and energy savings. At the
meeting and during the framework
document comment period, DOE
received many comments helping it
identify and resolve issues involved in
this rulemaking.
DOE gathered additional information
and performed preliminary analyses to
inform the development of energy
conservation standards. This process
culminated in DOE’s announcement of
an informal public meeting to discuss
and receive comments on the following
matters: the product classes DOE
planned to analyze; the analytical
framework, models, and tools that DOE
was using to evaluate standards; the
results of the preliminary analyses DOE
performed; and potential standard levels
that DOE might consider. 73 FR 79723
(December 30, 2008). DOE also invited
written comments on these subjects and
announced the availability on its Web
site of a preliminary TSD. Id. A PDF of
the preliminary TSD is available at
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/commercial/
small_electric_motors_nopr_tsd.html.
Finally, DOE stated its interest in
receiving comments on other issues that
participants believe would affect energy
conservation standards for small electric
motors or that DOE should address in
this NOPR. Id. at 79725.
The preliminary TSD provided an
overview of the activities DOE
undertook and discussed the comments
DOE received in developing standards
for small electric motors. It also
described the analytical framework that
DOE used and each analysis DOE
performed up to that point. These
analyses included:
• A market and technology
assessment that addressed the scope of
this rulemaking, identified the potential
classes of this equipment, characterized
the small electric motor market, and
reviewed techniques and approaches for
improving the efficiency of small
electric motors;
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• A screening analysis that reviewed
technology options to improve small
electric motor efficiency and weighed
them against DOE’s four prescribed
screening criteria;
• An engineering analysis that
estimated the manufacturer selling
prices (MSPs) associated with more
energy efficient small electric motors;
• An energy use and end-use load
characterization that estimated the
annual energy use of small electric
motors;
• A markup methodology that
converted average MSPs to consumerinstalled prices;
• An LCC analysis that calculated, at
the consumer level, the discounted
savings in operating costs throughout
the estimated average life of the small
electric motor, compared to any increase
in installed costs likely to result directly
from the imposition of the standard;
• A PBP analysis that estimated the
amount of time it takes consumers to
recover the higher purchase expense of
more energy efficient equipment
through lower operating costs;
• A shipments analysis that estimated
shipments of small electric motors over
the time period examined in the
analysis, which was used in performing
the national impact analysis;
• A national impact analysis that
assessed the aggregate impacts at the
national level of potential energy
conservation standards for small motors,
as measured by the net present value of
total consumer economic impacts and
national energy savings; and
• A preliminary manufacturer impact
analysis that took the initial steps in
evaluating the effects on manufacturers
of new efficiency standards.
The nature and function of the
analyses in this rulemaking, including
the engineering analysis, energy-use
characterization, markups to determine
installed prices, LCC and PBP analyses,
and national impact analysis, are
summarized in the December 2008
notice. Id. at 79725.
The public meeting announced in the
December 2008 notice took place on
January 30, 2009. At this meeting, DOE
presented the methodologies and results
of the analyses set forth in the
preliminary TSD. The comments
received since publication of the
December 2008 notice have helped DOE
resolve the issues in this rulemaking.
The submitted comments include a joint
comment from Adjuvant Consulting, on
behalf of the Northwest Energy
Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and
Northwest Power and Conservation
Council (NPCC); a comment from
Earthjustice; a second joint comment
from Energy Solutions, Pacific Gas and
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Electric Company (PG&E), Southern
California Edison (SCE), Southern
California Gas Company, and San Diego
Gas and Electric (SDGE), a comment
from NEMA); and a comment from
Edison Electric Institute (EEI). This
NOPR quotes and summarizes many of
these comments and responds to the
issues they raised. A parenthetical
reference at the end of a quotation or
paraphrase provides the location of the
item in the public record.
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
Final test procedures were published
on July 7, 2009 (74 FR 32059). The test
procedures incorporated by reference
Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) Standard 112–
2004 (Test Method A and Test Method
B), IEEE Standard 114–2001, and
Canadian Standards Association (CAN/
CSA) Standard C747–94.
In addition to incorporating by
reference the above industry standard
test procedures, the small electric
motors test procedure final rule also
codified the statutory definition for the
term ‘‘small electric motor;’’ clarified
the definition of the term ‘‘basic model’’
and the relationship of the term to
certain product classes and compliance
certification reporting requirements; and
codified the ability of manufacturers to
use an alternative efficiency
determination method (AEDM) to
reduce testing burden, while
maintaining accuracy and ensuring
compliance with potential future energy
conservation standards. The test
procedure notice also discussed matters
of laboratory accreditation, compliance
certification, and enforcement of energy
conservation standards for small electric
motors.
At the public meeting presenting the
preliminary analyses for the energy
conservation standards rulemaking,
WEG and Emerson voiced their concern
about enforcement of energy efficiency
standards for small electric motors.
WEG stated that they believe that
enforcement will become especially
problematic for those small electric
motors that come into the country
embedded in a piece of equipment and
are therefore difficult to view the
nameplate and to test. (WEG, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 325–
26) Additionally, Emerson requested
that DOE provide further information on
how it plans on enforcing standards on
small electric motors. (Emerson, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 297)
DOE notes certification and enforcement
provisions for small electric motors
have not yet been developed. DOE plans
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on proposing such provisions in a
separate test procedure supplementary
NOPR, at which time DOE will welcome
comment on how small electric motor
efficiency standards can be effectively
enforced.
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
In each standards rulemaking, DOE
conducts a screening analysis, which it
bases on information it has gathered on
all current technology options and
prototype designs that could improve
the efficiency of the product or
equipment that is the subject of the
rulemaking. In consultation with
manufacturers, design engineers, and
DOE developed maximum technology
efficiencies by creating motor designs
for each product class analyzed that use
all of DOE’s viable design options. The
efficiency levels shown in Table III.1
correspond to designs that use a
maximum increase in stack length, a
copper rotor design, an exotic low-loss
steel type, a maximum slot fill
percentage, a change in run-capacitor
rating (CSCR motors only), and an
optimized end ring design. All of the
design options used to create these maxtech motors remain in the analysis and
are options that DOE considers
technologically feasible.
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C. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
DOE used its national energy savings
(NES) spreadsheet to estimate energy
savings from new standards for the
small electric motors that are the subject
of this rulemaking. (The NES analysis is
described in section IV.G and in chapter
10 of the TSD.) DOE forecasted energy
savings beginning in 2015, the year that
new standards would go into effect, and
ending in 2045 for each TSL. DOE
quantified the energy savings
attributable to each TSL as the
difference in energy consumption
between the standards case and the base
case. The base case represents the
forecast of energy consumption in the
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other interested parties, DOE develops a
list of design options for consideration.
Consistent with its Process Rule, DOE
then determines which of these means
for improving efficiency are
technologically feasible. ‘‘Technologies
incorporated in commercially available
products or in working prototypes will
be considered technologically feasible.’’
10 CFR 430, subpart C, appendix A,
section 4(a)(4)(i).
DOE evaluates each of the acceptable
design options in light of the following
criteria: (1) Technological feasibility; (2)
practicability to manufacture, install, or
service; (3) adverse impacts on product
utility or availability; and (4) adverse
impacts on health or safety. Chapter 4
of the TSD contains a description of the
screening analysis. Also, section IV.B
includes a discussion of the design
options DOE considered, those it
screened out, and those that are the
basis for the trial standard levels (TSLs)
in this rulemaking.
absence of new energy conservation
standards. DOE’s base case assumes no
change in the efficiency distribution of
motors between 2008 and the end of the
analysis period in 2045.
The NES spreadsheet model
calculates the energy savings in site
energy expressed in kilowatt-hours
(kWh). Site energy is the energy directly
consumed by small electric motors at
the locations where they are used. DOE
reports national energy savings in terms
of the source energy savings, which is
the savings in the energy that is used to
generate and transmit the site energy. To
convert site energy to source energy,
DOE derived conversion factors, which
change with time, from the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act
scenario of the Energy Information
Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy
Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009), which is the
latest forecast available.
trivial.’’ The energy savings for all of the
TSLs considered in this rulemaking are
nontrivial, and therefore DOE considers
them significant.
2. Significance of Savings
Standards for small electric motors
must result in ‘‘significant’’ energy
savings. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)) While the
term ‘‘significant’’ is not defined in the
Act, the U.S. Court of Appeals, in
Natural Resources Defense Council v.
Herrington, 768 F.2d 1355, 1373 (DC
Cir. 1985), indicated that Congress
intended ‘‘significant’’ energy savings to
be savings that were not ‘‘genuinely
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2. Maximum Technologically Feasible
Levels
In the engineering analysis, DOE
determined the maximum
technologically (max-tech) feasible
efficiency levels for small electric
motors using the most efficient design
parameters that lead to the highest
equipment efficiencies. (See TSD
chapter 5.) Table III.1 lists the max-tech
levels that DOE determined for this
rulemaking.
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
As noted earlier, EPCA provides
seven factors to be evaluated in
determining whether an energy
conservation standard is economically
justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)) The
following sections discuss how DOE has
addressed each of those seven factors as
part of its analysis. DOE invites
comments on each of these elements.
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers
and Consumers
In determining the impacts on
manufacturers of a new or amended
standard, DOE first determines the
quantitative impacts using an annual
cash-flow approach. This includes both
a short-term assessment—based on the
cost and capital requirements during the
period between the announcement of a
regulation and when the regulation
comes into effect—and a long-term
assessment. The impacts analyzed
include INPV (which values the
industry on the basis of expected future
cash flows), cash flows by year, changes
in revenue and income, and other
measures, as appropriate. Second, DOE
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analyzes and reports the impacts on
different types of manufacturers, paying
particular attention to impacts on small
manufacturers. Third, DOE considers
the impact of standards on domestic
manufacturer employment,
manufacturing capacity, plant closures,
and loss of capital investment. Finally,
DOE takes into account the cumulative
impact of different DOE regulations on
manufacturers.
For small electric motor customers,
measures of economic impact include
the changes in LCC and the PBP for each
TSL. The LCC, which is also separately
specified as one of the seven factors to
be considered in determining the
economic justification for a new or
amended standard, (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(II)) is discussed in the
following section.
b. Life-Cycle Costs
The LCC is the sum of the purchase
price of a product (including its
installation) and the operating expense
(including energy and maintenance
expenditures) discounted over the
lifetime of the product. DOE determines
these costs by considering (1) total
installed price to the purchaser
(including manufacturer selling price,
distribution channel markups, sales
taxes, and installation cost), (2) the
operating expenses of the equipment
(energy cost and maintenance and repair
cost), (3) equipment lifetime, and (4) a
discount rate that reflects the real cost
of capital and puts the LCC in present
value terms.
For each representative small electric
motor product class, DOE calculated
both LCC and LCC savings for various
efficiency levels. The LCC analysis
estimated the LCC for representative
units used in various representative
applications, and accounted for a
mixture of space-constrained
applications (20 percent) and nonspace-constrained applications (80
percent) in the commercial, agricultural,
industrial, and residential sectors.
To account for uncertainty and
variability in specific inputs, such as
equipment lifetime, annual hours of
operation, and discount rate, DOE used
a distribution of values with
probabilities attached to each value.
DOE sampled a nationally
representative set of input values from
the distributions to produce a range of
LCC estimates. A distinct advantage of
this approach is that DOE can identify
the percentage of consumers achieving
LCC savings or attaining certain payback
values due to an energy conservation
standard. Thus, DOE presents the LCC
savings as a distribution, with a mean
value and a range. DOE assumed in its
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analysis that the consumer purchases
the product in 2015.
Attorney General’s determination in the
final rule.
c. Energy Savings
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Energy
The non-monetary benefits of the
proposed standards are likely to be
reflected in reductions in the overall
demand for electricity, which will result
in reduced costs for maintaining
reliability of the Nation’s electricity
system. DOE conducts a utility impact
analysis to estimate how standards may
affect the Nation’s power generation
capacity. This analysis captures the
effects of efficiency improvements on
electricity consumption by the covered
equipment, including the reduction in
electricity generation capacity by fuel
type.
The proposed standards will also
result in improvements to the
environment. In quantifying these
improvements, DOE has defined a range
of primary energy conversion factors
and associated emission reductions
based on the estimated level of power
generation displaced by energy
conservation standards. DOE reports the
environmental effects from each TSL in
the environmental assessment in
chapter 15 of the TSD. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI)).
While significant conservation of
energy is a separate statutory
requirement for imposing an energy
conservation standard, DOE considers
the total projected energy savings that
are expected to result directly from the
standard in determining the economic
justification of that standard. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III)) DOE used
the NES spreadsheet results in its
consideration of total projected savings.
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of
Products
In establishing classes of equipment,
and in evaluating design options and
the impact of potential standard levels,
DOE sought to develop standards for
small electric motors that would not
lessen the utility or performance of this
equipment. None of the TSLs DOE
considered would reduce the utility or
performance of the small electric motors
under consideration in the rulemaking.
(See 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV).) The
efficiency levels DOE considered
maintain motor performance and power
factor (i.e., approximately 75 percent for
polyphase motors and greater than 60
percent for capacitor start motors) so
that consumer utility is not adversely
affected. DOE considered end-user size
constraints by developing designs with
size increase restrictions (limited to a
20-percent increase in stack length), as
well as designs with less stringent
constraints (100-percent increase in
stack length). Those designs adhering to
the 20-percent increase in stack length
maintain all aspects of consumer utility
and were created for all efficiency
levels, but they may become very
expensive at higher efficiency levels
when compared with DOE’s other
designs.
e. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
DOE considers any lessening of
competition likely to result from
standards. Accordingly, DOE has
requested that the Attorney General
transmit to the Secretary, not later than
60 days after the publication of this
proposed rule, a written determination
of the impact, if any, of any lessening
of competition likely to result from
today’s proposed standards, together
with an analysis of the nature and
extent of such impact. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (B)(ii).) Along
with this request, DOE has transmitted
a copy of today’s proposed rule to the
Attorney General. DOE will address the
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g. Other Factors
The Act allows the Secretary of
Energy, in determining whether a
standard is economically justified, to
consider any other factors that the
Secretary deems to be relevant. (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VII)) Under this
provision, DOE considered three factors:
(1) Harmonization of the proposed
standards with standards for similar
products, (2) the need of some
consumers to continue to have access to
CSIR motors, and (3) the impacts of
reactive power 6 on electricity supply
costs.
Medium-sized polyphase generalpurpose motors in three-digit frame
series with output power of 1
horsepower and above are currently
regulated under the Energy Policy Act of
1992 (EPACT 1992). DOE proposes a
standard for polyphase small motors
with output power of 1 horsepower and
above that is closely aligned with the
6 In an alternating current power system, the
reactive power is the root mean square (RMS)
voltage multiplied by the RMS current, multiplied
by the sine of the phase difference between the
voltage and the current. Reactive power occurs
when the inductance or capacitance of the load
shifts the phase of the voltage relative to the phase
of the current. While reactive power does not
consume energy, it can increase losses and costs for
the electricity distribution system. Motors tend to
create reactive power because the windings in the
motor coils have high inductance.
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EPACT 1992 standard for medium
motors.
Some of the highest TSLs for singlephase motors would lead to very high
prices for CSIR motors while
maintaining lower prices for CSCR
motors, or vice versa. This shift in
relative price may cause the effective
disappearance of the more expensive
category of motors from the market. In
many applications, CSCR motors can
replace CSIR motors. However, in some
instances, the space required for a
second capacitor is not available so that
a CSCR motor may not be used to
replace a CSIR motor in some specific
applications. Under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(4), the Secretary may not
prescribe a standard that is ‘‘likely to
result in the unavailability in the United
States in any covered product type (or
class).’’ In today’s notice, DOE proposes
standards that it believes will maintain
a supply of both categories of motors in
the single-phase motor market.
DOE also notes that induction motors
produce reactive power that can result
in increased electricity supply costs
because reactive power creates extra
electrical currents that can require
increased electrical distribution
capacity. Many individual customers
are not charged directly for this cost, but
DOE did consider the economic benefits
of potential reactive power reductions
when evaluating the national benefits of
the proposed standards.
2. Rebuttable Presumption
Section 325(o)(2)(B)(iii) of EPCA
states that there is a rebuttable
presumption that an energy
conservation standard is economically
justified if the additional cost to the
consumer that meets the standard level
is less than three times the value of the
first-year energy (and as applicable,
water) savings resulting from the
standard, as calculated under the
applicable DOE test procedure. (42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(e)(1)) DOE’s LCC and payback
period (PBP) analyses generate values
that calculate the PBP for customers of
potential energy conservation standards,
which includes, but is not limited to,
the 3-year PBP contemplated under the
rebuttable presumption test discussed
above. However, DOE routinely
conducts a full economic analysis that
considers the full range of impacts,
including those to the customer,
manufacturer, Nation, and environment,
as required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(e)(1). The results of this analysis
serve as the basis for DOE to evaluate
definitively the economic justification
for a potential standard level (thereby
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supporting or rebutting the results of
any preliminary determination of
economic justification).
For comparison with the more
detailed analysis results, DOE provides
the results of a rebuttable presumption
payback calculation in section V.B.1.d.
IV. Methodology and Discussion
DOE used three spreadsheet tools to
estimate the impact of today’s proposed
standards. The first spreadsheet
calculates the LCCs and payback
periods of potential new energy
conservation standards. The second, the
National Impact Analysis (NIA)
spreadsheet, provides shipment
forecasts and then calculates national
energy savings and net present value
impacts of potential new energy
conservation standards. DOE assessed
manufacturer impacts largely through
use of the third spreadsheet, the
Government Regulatory Impact Model
(GRIM).
Additionally, DOE estimated the
impacts of energy efficiency standards
for small electric motors on utilities and
the environment. DOE used a version of
EIA’s National Energy Modeling System
(NEMS) for the utility and
environmental analyses. The NEMS
model simulates the energy sector of the
U.S. economy. EIA uses NEMS to
prepare its Annual Energy Outlook, a
widely known energy forecast for the
United States. The version of NEMS
used for appliance standards analysis is
called NEMS–BT, and is based on the
AEO 2009 version with minor
modifications. The NEMS offers a
sophisticated picture of the effect of
standards because it accounts for the
interactions between the various energy
supply and demand sectors and the
economy as a whole.
The EIA approves the use of the name
‘‘NEMS’’ to describe only an AEO
version of the model without any
modification to code or data. Because
the present analysis entails some minor
code modifications and runs the model
under various policy scenarios that
deviate from AEO assumptions, the
name ‘‘NEMS–BT’’ refers to the model
used here. (‘‘BT’’ stands for DOE’s
Building Technologies Program.) For
more information on NEMS, refer to The
National Energy Modeling System: An
Overview, DOE/EIA–0581 (98) (Feb.
1998), available at https://
tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/
forecasting/058198.pdf.
A. Market and Technology Assessment
When beginning an energy
conservation standards rulemaking,
DOE develops information that provides
an overall picture of the market for the
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equipment concerned, including the
purpose of the equipment, the industry
structure, and market characteristics.
This activity includes both quantitative
and qualitative assessments based
primarily on publicly available
information. The subjects addressed in
the market and technology assessment
for this rulemaking include product
classes, manufacturers, quantities, and
types of equipment sold and offered for
sale; retail market trends; and regulatory
and non-regulatory programs. See
chapter 3 of the TSD for further
discussion of the market and technology
assessment.
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
Except for small electric motors that
are components of other products
covered by EPCA (see 42 U.S.C.
6317(b)(3)), DOE analyzed all CSIR and
CSCR single-phase motors and
polyphase motors, including, for
example, both open and enclosed
motors. DOE determined that standards
appear to be warranted for all of them.
71 FR 38807–08. However, DOE has
tentatively concluded that EPCA does
not cover certain small motors for which
the determination concluded standards
were warranted—the most significant
group being enclosed motors.
a. Motor Categories
EPCA’s definition of ‘‘small electric
motor’’ is tied to the terminology and
performance requirements in NEMA
Standards Publication MG1–1987
(MG1–1987). These requirements were
established for (1) general-purpose
alternating-current motors, (2) singlespeed induction motors, and (3) the
NEMA system for designating (twodigit) frames. Single-speed induction
motors, as delineated and described in
MG1–1987, fall into five categories:
split-phase, shaded-pole, capacitor-start
(both CSIR and CSCR), permanent-split
capacitor (PSC), and polyphase.
Therefore, only motors in these
categories meet the single-speed
induction motor element of EPCA’s
definition of ‘‘small electric motor.’’
In paragraph MG1–1.05, MG1–1987
defines ‘‘general-purpose alternatingcurrent motor’’ as follows:
A general-purpose alternating-current
motor is an induction motor, rated 200
horsepower and less, which
incorporates all of the following: (1)
Open construction, (2) rated continuous
duty, (3) service factor in accordance
with MG1–12.47, and (4) Class A
insulation system with a temperature
rise as specified in MG1–12.42 for small
motors or Class B insulation system
with a temperature rise as specified in
MG1–12.43 for medium motors. It is
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designed in standard ratings with
standard operating characteristics and
mechanical construction for use under
usual service conditions without
restriction to a particular application or
type of application.
During the public meeting held on
January 30, 2009, Emerson Motor
Technologies commented that splitphase motors, shaded-pole motors, and
PSC motors do not meet the torque
requirements for NEMA general-purpose
motors. Therefore, Emerson indicated
that these motors should be excluded
from the scope of coverage for this
rulemaking. (Emerson, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 38) 7
DOE has examined this issue and,
consistent with its position in the
preliminary analyses, agrees that splitphase, shaded-pole, or PSC motors do
not qualify as general-purpose
alternating-current motors. Because
split-phase motors are usually designed
for specific purposes and applications,
they are not designed ‘‘for use under
usual service conditions without
restriction to a particular application or
type of application.’’ Additionally, splitphase, shaded-pole, and PSC motors all
fail to meet MG1–1987’s torque and
current requirements for generalpurpose motors, and hence are not
‘‘designed in standard ratings with
standard operating characteristics.’’ The
requirements that NEMA MG1–1987
defines for single-phase motors are
locked-rotor torque at MG1–12.32.2,
locked-rotor current at MG1–12.43, and
breakdown torque at MG1–12.32. For
small polyphase motors, NEMA MG1–
1987 only defines breakdown torque in
MG1–12.37. Because of these
restrictions, none of the above motor
categories are small electric motors as
EPCA defines that term. DOE’s
determination that standards are
warranted for small electric motors
excluded the above motor categories,
and none are covered by today’s
proposed standards.
As for CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase
motors, these motor categories do meet
7 A notation in the form ‘‘Emerson, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 38’’ refers to (1)
a statement that was submitted by Emerson Motor
Technologies and is recorded in the docket ‘‘Energy
Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and
Industrial Equipment: Public Meeting and
Availability of the Framework Document for Small
Electric Motors,’’ Docket Number EERE–2008–BT–
STD–0007, as comment number 8.5; and (2) a
passage that appears on page 38 of the transcript,
‘‘Small Electric Motors Energy Conservation
Standards Preliminary Analyses Public Meeting,’’
dated January 30, 2009. Likewise, a notation in the
form ‘‘NEMA, No. 13 at p. 5’’ refers to (1) a
statement by the National Electrical Manufacturers
Association and is recorded in the docket as
comment number 13; and (2) a passage that appears
on page 5 of that document.
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the performance requirements set forth
by the MG1–1987 definition of ‘‘generalpurpose alternating-current motor’’ and
are therefore covered by the EPCA
definition of a small electric motor.
During the public meeting, PG&E,
Earthjustice, and ACEEE expressed
concern that small electric motors not
covered by the scope of coverage of this
rulemaking would be preempted from
coverage as a result of energy
conservation for standards for the
covered small electric motors. (PG&E,
Earthjustice, ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 320–323) In
their comment, Earthjustice also
requested that DOE clarify this issue.
(Earthjustice, No. 11 at pp. 3–5) DOE
appreciates these concerns and would
like to clarify the issue of preemption.
The statutory definition of small electric
motors only gives DOE the authority to
cover, CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase
motors. Therefore, state standards for
other, non-covered motor categories,
such as those discussed above, would
not be preempted by the standards set
by this rulemaking.
b. Motor Enclosures
The first criterion listed in NEMA
MG1–1987’s definition of a ‘‘generalpurpose alternating-current motor’’ is
that the motor is of open construction.
In the latest version of NEMA MG1,
MG1–2006 with Revision 1 2007, NEMA
modified this criterion and expanded it
to include enclosed motors. At the
preliminary analyses public meeting,
Earthjustice commented that DOE could
reinterpret the statutory definition of
small electric motor such that NEMA
MG1–1987 only applies to the definition
of two-digit frame number series and
later versions of MG1 could be used to
expand coverage to include enclosed
motors. Earthjustice reiterated this point
in a comment submitted after the public
meeting. (Earthjustice, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 47–50;
Earthjustice, No. 11 at p. 1) NEMA
disagreed with this interpretation of the
statutory definition, arguing that MG1–
1987 was intended to apply to the entire
definition of a small electric motor.
Therefore, NEMA recommended that
DOE only cover open motors. (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 17)
DOE agrees with NEMA that the
reference MG1–1987 applies to all facets
of the statutory definition of a small
electric motor. The language of the
statute specifies that the requirements of
MG1–1987 apply in determining what
constitutes a small electric motor. DOE’s
application of that definition is
consistent with that language. Similarly,
because the statute specifically
mentions MG1–1987 as the version of
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MG1 on which DOE should relay, the
1987 version is the only applicable
version of NEMA MG1. Accordingly,
consistent with MG1–1987, only CSIR,
CSCR, and polyphase motors with open
construction meet the statutory
definition.
c. Service Factors
Additional CSIR, CSCR, and
polyphase motors may fail to meet the
NEMA definition because, for example,
they fail to meet the service factor
requirements. Service factor is a
measure of the overload capacity at
which a motor can operate without
damage, while operating normally
within the correct voltage tolerances.
The rated horsepower multiplied by the
service factor determines that overload
capacity. For example, a 1 horsepower
motor with a 1.25 service factor can
operate at 1.25 horsepower (1
horsepower × 1.25 service factor). DOE
has concluded that motors that fail to
meet service factor requirements in
MG1–12.47 are not ‘‘small electric
motors’’ as EPCA uses that term.
Therefore, today’s proposed standards
do not apply to them.
d. Insulation Class Systems
The statutory definition of a small
electric motor is bound to the definition
of a general-purpose alternating-current
motor as defined in NEMA MG 1–1987.
Part of that NEMA definition says that
a general-purpose motor must
incorporate a ‘‘Class A insulation
system with a temperature rise as
specified in MG 1–12.42 for small
motors or Class B insulation system
with a temperature rise as specified in
MG 1–12.43 for medium motors.’’
The issue of insulation classes and
how it pertains to DOE’s scope of
coverage was discussed at the
preliminary analysis public meeting.
Advanced Energy spoke about
insulation classes and recommended
that DOE’s coverage should include
Class F insulation systems. (Advanced
Energy, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
8.5 at pp. 45–46) Advanced Energy
noted that insulation class systems used
in small electric motors have improved
since this definition of general purpose
was first standardized in NEMA MG1–
1987. Further, as new insulation
technologies have improved and
material costs have decreased, it has
become increasingly common for
manufacturers to use insulation classes
higher than A. Advanced Energy
requested in written comments that
DOE consider all insulation classes as
covered (Advanced Energy, No. 16 at
p. 4).
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Upon further examination of the
market, DOE agrees with Advanced
Energy. The vast majority of the motors
manufactured, and otherwise covered
by this rulemaking, satisfy the
requirements for Class B or Class F
insulation systems. DOE also found that
according to MG1–1.66 and paragraph
MG1–12.42, NEMA MG 1–1987 defines
four insulation class systems. They are
divided into classes based on the
thermal endurance of the system for
temperature rating purposes. A Class A
insulation system must have suitable
thermal endurance at a temperature rise.
Class A insulation is a minimum level
of thermal endurance. A Class B
insulation system has a greater thermal
endurance rating than Class A.
Similarly, Class F thermal endurance
exceeds Class B and Class H insulation
has the highest level of endurance
among all four classes. Therefore, the
insulation class systems are defined in
a way that permits a Class H system to
satisfy Classes A, B, and F. DOE believes
that this approach satisfies the statute
and avoids creating a loophole through
which all small electric motors
equipped with non-Class A insulation
would be eliminated from coverage.
Commenters did not suggest that these
insulation classes should be exempt
from coverage and DOE is proposing to
consider covering insulation Classes A
or higher as covered under this rule.
Therefore, DOE interprets the NEMA
MG1–1987 definition of a ‘‘generalpurpose, alternating-current motor’’ as
being applicable to insulation class
systems rated A or higher.
e. Metric Equivalents
EPCA defines a small electric motor
based on the construction and rating
system in MG1–1987. (42 U.S.C.
6311(13)(G)) This system uses English
units of measurement and power output
ratings in horsepower. In contrast,
general-purpose electric motors
manufactured outside the United States
and Canada are defined and described
with reference to the International
Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)
Standard 60034–1 series, ‘‘Rotating
electrical machines,’’ which employs
terminology and criteria different from
those in EPCA. The performance
attributes of these IEC motors are rated
pursuant to IEC Standard 60034–1 Part
1: ‘‘Rating and performance,’’ which
uses metric units of measurement and
construction standards different from
MG1–1987, and a rating system based
on power output in kilowatts instead of
power output in horsepower. The
Institute of Electrical and Electronics
Engineers (IEEE) Standard 112
recognizes this difference in the market
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and defines the relationship between
horsepower and kilowatts. Furthermore,
in 10 CFR 431.12, DOE defined ‘‘electric
motor’’ in terms of both NEMA and IEC
equivalents even though EPCA’s
corresponding definition and standards
were articulated in terms of MG1–1987
criteria and English units of
measurement. 64 FR 54114 (October 5,
1999)
DOE received two comments on IECequivalent motors following the January
30, 2009, public meeting. NEMA
commented that IEC-equivalent motors
should be considered covered products
to prevent the import of virtually
identical products that are not
compliant with energy efficiency
standards. (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 17) A
joint comment submitted by PG&E, SCE,
SCGC, and SDGE also stated that IECequivalent motors should be covered to
prevent a potential loophole in the
standard. (Joint Comment, No. 12 at
p. 2)
Although the statutory definition of
‘‘small electric motor’’ does not address
metric or kilowatt-rated motors, DOE
agrees with the submitted comments. In
general, IEC metric or kilowattequivalent motors can perform the
identical functions of covered small
electric motors and provide comparable
rotational mechanical power to the same
machines or equipment. Moreover, IEC
metric or kilowatt-equivalent motors
can be interchangeable with covered
small electric motors. Therefore, DOE
interprets EPCA to apply the definition
of a ‘‘small electric motor’’ to any motor
that is identical or equivalent to a motor
constructed and rated in accordance
with NEMA MG1.
Additionally, as to motors with a
standard kilowatt rating, DOE
prescribed energy conservation
standards for medium electric motors
(i.e., NEMA three-digit frame series
motors) in section 431.25(a). In this
section of the CFR DOE establishes
equivalencies of standard horsepower
and kilowatt ratings. As demonstrated
by examination of these specified
equivalencies in section 431.25(a) and
the exact conversions of standard
kilowatt ratings to horsepower ratings
laid out in 431.25(b)(3)—no standard
kilowatt rating exactly equals a standard
horsepower rating—and therefore an
IEC motor with a standard kilowatt
rating must sometimes meet the
efficiency standard for the next higher
horsepower or the next lower depending
on what converted horsepower value is
relative to the surrounding standard
horsepower ratings. In all cases the
standard it must meet is prescribed for
a horsepower that is very close to an
exact conversion from its kilowatt
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rating. Second, as to electric motors
with non-standard kilowatt or
horsepower ratings, section 431.25(b)(3)
provides that kilowatt rating would be
arithmetically converted to its
equivalent horsepower rating, and then,
based on whether the motor falls above
or below the midpoint between
consecutive horsepower ratings, would
be required to meet the corresponding
higher or lower energy efficiency level,
respectively. DOE proposes to adopt
similar interpretations for small electric
motors.
f. Frame Sizes
As to the frame sizes of motors that
would be covered by DOE standards for
small electric motors, EPCA defines
small electric motor, in part, as a motor
‘‘built in a two-digit frame number
series in accordance with MG1–1987.’’
(42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(G)) MG1–1987
establishes a system for designating
frames of motors, which consists of a
series of numbers in combination with
letters. The 1987 version of MG1 only
explicitly defines three two-digit frame
series: 42, 48, and 56. These frame series
have standard dimensions and
tolerances necessary for mounting and
interchangeability that are specified in
sections MG1–11.31 and MG1–11.34.
DOE understands that manufacturers
produce other two-digit frame sizes,
namely a 66 frame size. The 66 frame
size is used for definite-purpose or
special-purpose motors and not used in
general-purpose applications and
therefore not covered under the EPCA
definition of ‘‘small electric motor.’’
DOE is unaware of any other motors
with frame sizes that are built in
accordance with NEMA MG1–1987.
Should such frame sizes appear, DOE
will evaluate whether or not they are
included equipment at that time.
g. Horsepower Ratings
The definition of a small electric
motor does not explicitly limit the scope
of coverage to certain horsepower
ratings. However, DOE notes that the
small electric motor industry generally
considers 3 hp as the upper limit for
rated capacity of such motors.
Nonetheless, some manufacturers
produce motors that meet the EPCA
definition of small electric motor but
have higher horsepower ratings. DOE
has tentatively concluded that such
motors are still covered by and subject
to standards adopted under EPCA.
Chapter 3 of the TSD provides
additional detail on the nature of the
motors covered by the standards
proposed in this NOPR.
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When evaluating and establishing
energy conservation standards, DOE
generally divides covered equipment
into classes by the type of energy used,
capacity, or other performance-related
features that affect efficiency. (42 U.S.C.
6295(q)) DOE routinely establishes
different energy conservation standards
for different product classes based on
these criteria.
At the preliminary analyses public
meeting, DOE presented its rationale for
creating 72 product classes. The 72
product classes are based on the
combinations of three different ratings
or characteristics of a motor based on
motor category, number of poles, and
horsepower. As these motor
characteristics change, so does the
utility and efficiency of the small
electric motor.
The motor category divides the small
electric motors market into three major
motor categories: CSIR, CSCR, and
polyphase. For each motor category,
DOE broke down the product classes by
all combinations of the eight different
horsepower ratings (i.e., 1⁄4 to ≥ 3) and
three different pole configurations (i.e.,
2, 4, and 6). A number of reasons
support this approach.
First, the motor category depends on
the type of energy used and its starting
and running electrical characteristics.
While all small electric motors use
electricity, some motors operate on
single phase electricity (which requires
certain additional electronics for
creating rotational torque) while others
operate on polyphase electricity.
Polyphase motors do not need
additional circuitry to create rotational
torque because they use the existing
phase difference in the multiple phases
of electricity applied to the motor. This
difference impacts efficiency, and
therefore becomes a factor around
which DOE establishes a separate
product class for polyphase motors.
Within single phase small electric
motors, there are characteristics which
are important because they can affect
the motor’s utility and potential for
improving efficiency. The design feature
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of incorporating a run capacitor into the
small electric motor affects motor
efficiency, making it more efficient than
an induction run motor that does not
incorporate a run capacitor.8 This
design constitutes a performance-related
feature that affects efficiency.
Furthermore, DOE notes that it is not
always possible to replace a CSIR motor
with a CSCR motor due to the run
capacitor, which is often mounted in an
external housing on the motor. In
certain applications, the run capacitor
mounted on the motor will physically
prohibit it from replacing a CSIR motor.
This is a design feature that affects
utility. For all of these reasons, DOE
treats CSIR and CSCR motors as separate
product classes.
Second, the number of poles in an
electric motor determines the
synchronous speed (i.e., revolutions per
minute). There is an inverse
relationship between the number of
poles and the maximum speed a motor
can run at, meaning that an increase in
the number of poles equates to a
decrease in the speed of the motor (e.g.,
going from two to four to six poles, the
synchronous speed drops from 3,600 to
1,800 to 1,200 revolutions per minute).
Since the full range of motor
applications requires a variety of motor
speeds, DOE considers motor speed and,
therefore, the number of poles to have
a distinct impact on the utility of small
electric motors. Therefore, DOE uses the
number of poles in a motor as a means
of differentiating product classes
because it is this design change that
creates a change in motor speed
capabilities.
Third, in general, efficiency scales
with horsepower, a capacity-related
metric of small electric motors. In other
words, a 3 horsepower motor is usually
more efficient than a 1⁄4 horsepower
motor. Horsepower is a critical
performance attribute of an electric
motor, and since there is a correlation
8 The run-capacitor and auxiliary windings in a
CSCR motor help simulate a balanced two phase
motor at full load, which helps minimize the
current required to run the motor, thereby reducing
the I2R losses (which are losses related to current
flow).
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with efficiency, DOE uses this as a
criterion for distinguishing among
product classes.
At the public meeting, Emerson and
Baldor commented that frame size
should be considered as an additional
motor characteristic when establishing
product classes. They both stated that
motors of different frame sizes should
not be subjected to the same standards
because motors in the smaller frames
will not be able to achieve as high an
energy efficiency rating as the larger
frame size. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 70–71;
Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at pp. 75–76)
DOE agrees that motors in a smaller
frame size, and therefore made with a
potentially smaller diameter, will not be
able to achieve the same efficiency
rating as a larger frame. The smaller
diameter limits the amount of active
material that is used to reduce motor
losses and therefore limits the
maximum efficiency rating possible as
well. However, DOE believes that frame
size does not adequately account for
efficiency limits based on the physical
size of the motor. The frame size only
dictates what the ‘‘D’’ dimension (i.e.,
the dimension comprising the length
from the bottom of the feet of a motor
to the center of its shaft). For example,
a 56 frame motor could have a stator
outside diameter ranging from 5.5
inches to 6.15 inches. Therefore, DOE
accounts for how changes in diameter
can affect product utility and efficiency
in the engineering analysis.
Additionally, if DOE were to add
frame size to the class-setting criterion
the number of product classes would
increase from 72 to 216, which is a
change by a factor of three for the frame
sizes covered: 42, 48, and 56. Such a
large number of product classes would
result in a large number of basic models,
which would be too burdensome on
manufacturers when seeking
certification of compliance. The three
tables below lay out the 72 product
classes, including a description of
kilowatt and horsepower equivalents.
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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Chapter 3 of the TSD accompanying
this notice provides additional detail on
the product classes defined for the
standards proposed in this NOPR.
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B. Screening Analysis
DOE uses the following four screening
criteria to determine which design
options are suitable for further
consideration in a standards
rulemaking:
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1. Technological feasibility. DOE
considers technologies incorporated in
commercial products or in working
prototypes to be technologically
feasible.
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2. Practicability to manufacture,
install, and service. If mass production
and reliable installation and servicing of
a technology in commercial products
could be achieved on the scale
necessary to serve the relevant market at
the time the standard comes into effect,
then DOE considers that technology
practicable to manufacture, install, and
service.
3. Adverse impacts on product utility
or product availability. If DOE
determines a technology would have
significant adverse impact on the utility
of the product to significant subgroups
of consumers, or would result in the
unavailability of any covered product
type with performance characteristics
(including reliability), features, sizes,
capacities, and volumes that are
substantially the same as products
generally available in the United States
at the time, it will not consider this
technology further.
4. Adverse impacts on health or
safety. If DOE determines that a
technology will have significant adverse
impacts on health or safety, it will not
consider this technology further.
See 10 CFR part 430, subpart C,
appendix A, (4)(a)(4) and (5)(b).
DOE identified the following
technology options that could improve
the efficiency of small electric motors:
utilizing a copper die-cast rotor,
reducing skew on stack (i.e.,
straightening the rotor conductor bars),
increasing the cross-sectional area of
rotor conductor bars, increasing the end
ring size, changing the copper wire
gauge used in the stator, manipulating
the stator slot size, changing capacitor
ratings, decreasing the air gap between
the rotor and stator, improving the
grades of electrical steel, using thinner
steel laminations, annealing steel
laminations, adding stack height, using
high efficiency lamination materials,
using plastic bonded iron powder
(PBIP), installing better ball bearings
and lubricant, and installing a more
efficient cooling system. For a
description of how each of these
technology options improves small
electric motor efficiency please see TSD
chapter 3. For the NOPR, DOE screened
out two of these technology options:
PBIP and decreasing the air gap below
.0125″.
PBIP is based on an iron powder alloy
that is suspended in plastic, and is used
in certain motor applications such as
fans, pumps, and household appliances.
The compound is then shaped into
motor components using a centrifugal
mold, reducing the number of
manufacturing steps. Researchers claim
that this technology option could cut
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losses by as much as 50 percent.9 The
Lund University team already produces
inductors, transformers, and induction
heating coils using PBIP, but has not yet
produced a small electric motor. In
addition, it appears that PBIP
technology is aimed at torus, claw-pole,
and transversal flux motors, none of
which fit EPCA’s definition of small
motors.
Considering the four screening criteria
for this technology option, DOE
screened out PBIP as a means of
improving efficiency. Although PBIP
has the potential to improve efficiency
while reducing manufacturing costs,
DOE does not consider this technology
option technologically feasible, because
it has not been incorporated into a
working prototype of a small electric
motor. Also, DOE is uncertain whether
the material has the structural integrity
to form into the necessary shape of a
small electric motor steel frame.
Furthermore, DOE is uncertain whether
PBIP is practicable to manufacture,
install, and service, because a prototype
PBIP small electric motor has not been
made and little information is available
on the ability to manufacture this
technology. However, DOE is not aware
of any adverse impacts on product
utility, product availability, health, or
safety that may arise from the use of
PBIP in small electric motors.
Reducing the air gap between the
rotor and stator can improve motor
efficiency as well by reducing the
magnetomotive force drop (i.e., the force
producing the magnetic flux needed to
operate the motor), which occurs across
the air gap. Reducing this drop means
that the motor will require less current
to operate. For small electric motors, the
air gap is commonly set at 15
thousandths of an inch. Although
reducing this air gap can improve
efficiency, there is some point at which
the air gap is too tight and becomes
impracticable to manufacture. For the
preliminary analyses DOE set an air gap
reduction limit at 10 thousandths of an
inch.
During the public meeting and the
comment period following it, DOE
received comments on this technology
option. At the public meeting, Baldor
stated that reducing the air gap between
the stator and rotor will not improve
motor efficiency, but could potentially
worsen it instead. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 119)
Alternatively, in the comment
submitted on behalf of Baldor and other
9 Horrdin, H., and E. Olsson. Technology Shifts in
Power Electronics and Electric Motors for Hybrid
Electric Vehicles: A Study of Silicon Carbide and
Iron Powder Materials. 2007. Chalmers University
¨
of Technology. Goteborg, Sweden.
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manufacturers by NEMA, they stated
that reducing the air gap could have a
positive effect on efficiency for some
motor designs, but not necessarily all.
(NEMA, No. 13 at p. 5) NEMA also
stated that a more practical limit on the
air gap for small electric motors is 12.5
thousandths of an inch. (NEMA, No. 13
at p. 3)
DOE agrees with NEMA’s comments
and screened out decreasing the radial
air gap below 12.5 thousandths of an
inch as a means of improving efficiency.
DOE believes air gaps of 10 thousandths
of an inch are possible; however, they
are more practical in non-continuous,
stepper motors (motors whose full
rotation is completed in discrete
movements) where potential contact is
not as much of a concern. DOE
considers air gap reduction below 12.5
thousandths of an inch technologically
feasible, because smaller air gaps do not
present any technological barrier. Also,
DOE is not aware of any adverse
impacts on health or safety associated
with reducing the radial air gap below
12.5 thousandths of an inch. However,
DOE believes that this technology
option fails the screening criterion of
being practicable to manufacture,
install, and service because such a tight
air gap may cause the rotor to come into
contact with the stator and cause
manufacturing and service problems.
This technology option fails the
screening criterion of adverse impacts
on consumer utility and reliability,
because the motor may experience
higher failure rates in service when the
manufactured air gaps are less than 12.5
thousandths of an inch.
DOE received comments on two other
technology options as well—increasing
stack length and the use of different run
capacitors. Baldor suggested that DOE
screen out changing the stack length of
the motor because it will force some
original equipment manufacturers
(OEMs) that use small electric motors to
invest in redesigning their equipment to
fit the potentially larger motor. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 121–22) DOE cannot screen out a
technology option because of cost, so
DOE believes adding stack height and
lengthening a motor is a viable
technology option that passes all four
screening criterion. Accordingly, these
technology options will be included in
the engineering analysis. See the
engineering analysis, section IV.C.
NEMA recommended that DOE
consider varying the rating of capacitors
used in small electric motors as a
technology option. (NEMA, No. 13 at p.
18) In response, DOE notes that though
varying capacitor ratings was not
explicitly listed as a technology option,
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Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
C. Engineering Analysis
The engineering analysis develops
cost-efficiency relationships to show the
manufacturing costs of achieving
increased efficiency. DOE has identified
the following three methodologies to
generate the manufacturing costs
needed for the engineering analysis: (1)
The design-option approach, which
provides the incremental costs of adding
to a baseline model design options that
will improve its efficiency; (2) the
efficiency-level approach, which
provides the relative costs of achieving
increases in energy efficiency levels,
without regard to the particular design
options used to achieve such increases;
and (3) the cost-assessment (or reverse
engineering) approach, which provides
‘‘bottom-up’’ manufacturing cost
assessments for achieving various levels
of increased efficiency, based on
detailed data as to costs for parts and
material, labor, shipping/packaging, and
investment for models that operate at
particular efficiency levels.
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1. Approach
In this rulemaking, DOE conducted
the engineering analysis using a
3. Cost Model
For the preliminary analyses and this
NOPR, DOE developed a cost model to
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2. Product Classes Analyzed
As discussed in section IV.A.2 of this
notice, DOE proposes establishing a
total of 72 product classes for small
electric motors, based on the motor
category (polyphase, CSIR, or CSCR),
horsepower, and pole configuration.
However, due to scheduling and
resource constraints, DOE was not able
to conduct a separate engineering
analysis for each and every product
class. Instead, DOE carefully selected
certain product classes to analyze, and
then scaled its analytical findings for
those representative product classes to
other product classes that were not
analyzed. Further discussion of this
issue is presented in section IV.C.6.
For the engineering analysis
conducted during the preliminary
analysis, DOE analyzed three
representative product classes, all with
the most popular, 4-pole configuration.
In response to that analysis, Baldor
commented that two and six-pole
motors may have significant design
differences (such as the rotor outer
diameter) from 4-pole motors. (Baldor,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 196–99) Although DOE recognizes
that these design differences exist and
may affect efficiency, DOE has
continued to directly model only 4-pole
motors in its engineering analysis
because it is the most popular
configuration within each motor
category and therefore the best basis for
scaling. As discussed in section IV.C.3,
DOE has revised its scaling
relationships between product classes to
account for efficiency-related
differences between pole configurations.
For the NOPR, similar to its approach
in the preliminary analyses, DOE
analyzed the three representative
product classes depicted in Table IV.4.
By choosing these three product classes,
DOE ensures that each motor category
(polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR) is
represented. In addition, DOE has
chosen horsepower ratings for each
motor category that are commonly
available across most manufacturers,
thus increasing the quantity of available
data on which to base the analysis.
Finally, DOE chose four-pole motors for
each motor category, consistent with
NEMA-provided shipments data (see
TSD chapter 9), which indicated that
these motors have the highest shipment
volume for 2007. See TSD chapter 5 for
additional detail on the product classes
analyzed.
estimate the manufacturing production
cost (MPC) of small electric motors. The
model uses outputs of the design
software to generate a complete bill of
materials, specifying quantities and
dimensions of parts associated with the
modified design-option approach where
DOE employed a technical expert with
motor design software to develop motor
designs at several efficiency levels for
each analyzed product class. Based on
these simulated designs and
manufacturer and component supplier
data, DOE calculated manufacturing
costs and selling prices associated with
each efficiency level. DOE decided on
this approach after receiving insufficient
response to its request for the
manufacturer data needed to execute an
efficiency-level approach for the
preliminary analyses. The design-option
approach allows DOE to make its
engineering analysis methodologies,
assumptions, and results publicly
available, thereby permitting all
interested parties the opportunity to
review and comment on this
information. The design options
considered in the engineering analysis
include: copper die-cast rotor, reduce
skew on stack, increase cross-sectional
area of rotor conductor bars, increase
end-ring size, change gauge of copper
wire in stator, manipulate stator slot
size, decrease air gap between rotor and
stator to 12.5 thousandths of an inch,
improve grades of electrical steel, use
thinner steel laminations, anneal steel
laminations, add stack height, use high
efficiency lamination materials, change
capacitors ratings, install better ball
bearings and lubricant, and install a
more efficient cooling system. Chapter 5
of the TSD contains a detailed
description of the product classes
analyzed and the analytical models DOE
used to conduct the small electric
motors engineering analysis and chapter
3 of the TSD contains a detailed
description of how all the design
options increase motor efficiency.
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it was utilized in the preliminary
engineering analysis. DOE agrees that
changing the capacitor rating,
specifically the run-capacitor rating
used in CSCR motors, can provide
increases in motor efficiency with
minimal redesign effort. DOE believes
that changing the capacitor rating meets
all four screening criterion and is being
included in the engineering analysis of
this NOPR.
DOE believes that all of the efficiency
levels discussed in today’s notice are
technologically feasible. The evaluated
technologies all have been used (or are
being used) in commercially available
products or working prototypes. These
technologies all incorporate materials
and components that are commercially
available in today’s supply markets for
the motors that are the subject of this
NOPR. Therefore, DOE believes all of
the efficiency levels evaluated in this
notice are technologically feasible.
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
to TSD chapter 5 for additional details
on DOE’s commodities cost scenario.
DOE applied a manufacturer markup
to the MPC estimates to arrive at the
MSP. MSP is the price of equipment
sold at which the manufacturer can
recover both production and nonproduction costs and earn a profit. DOE
developed a market-share-weighted
average industry markup by examining
gross margin information from the
annual reports of several major small
electric motor manufacturers and
Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) 10–K reports.11 Because the SEC
10–K reports do not provide gross
margin information for different product
line offerings, the estimated markups
represent the average markups that the
company applies over its entire range of
motor offerings.
Markups were evaluated for 2003 to
2008. The manufacturer markup is
calculated as 100/(100—average gross
margin), where average gross margin is
calculated as revenue—cost of goods
sold (COGS). To validate the
information, DOE reviewed its
assumptions with motor manufacturers.
During interviews (see Chapter 12 of the
TSD), motor manufacturers stated that
many manufacturers generate different
levels of revenue and profit for different
product classes, but generally agreed
with the end markup that was
generated. For the NOPR engineering
analysis, DOE used an industry-wide
manufacturer markup of 1.45 based on
the information described above.
10 DOE used a markup of 17.5% for overhead
when the motor design used an aluminum rotor and
18.0% when the motor design used a copper rotor.
The difference in markup is to account for
increased depreciation of the manufacturing
equipment associated with using a copper rotor.
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4. Baseline Models
As mentioned above, the engineering
analysis calculates the incremental costs
for equipment with efficiency levels
above the baseline in each product class
analyzed. During the preliminary
analyses, NEMA provided DOE with
baseline efficiency levels for the four
motors DOE analyzed. The baseline
efficiencies reported by NEMA were
from a set of compiled data submitted
by its members. The reported baseline
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efficiency levels also corresponded to
the lowest efficiencies of motors
manufactured and sold in the market by
their members at that time.
For the preliminary analyses, DOE
used the expertise of its subcontractor to
develop baseline design parameters that
included dimensions, steel grades,
copper wire gauges, operating
temperatures, and other features
necessary to calculate the motor’s
performance. The subcontractor used a
software program to create a baseline
design that had an efficiency rating
equivalent to that provided by NEMA
and torque and current restrictions
compliant with NEMA MG1–1987.
After the public meeting, a few
commenters raised issues related to
baseline models. NEMA stated that DOE
should use the baseline efficiencies that
had been provided for the preliminary
analyses to select efficiencies for the
baseline models in the NOPR. (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 5)
For the NOPR analysis, DOE
reexamined the baseline units selected.
To establish the baseline motor for the
three representative product classes
DOE examined all available catalog data
to find motors with the lowest efficiency
on the market. The rated efficiencies for
the polyphase and CSIR motors that
DOE chose corresponded to the baseline
efficiency levels that NEMA had
recommended. However, for the CSCR
motor DOE was unable to find a motor
with as low an efficiency as that
recommended by NEMA. Therefore,
DOE selected the lowest efficiency level
it could find in the market, which was
72 percent instead of the 66 percent
recommended by NEMA. After
purchasing the small electric motors,
DOE had its design subcontractor, as
well as an accredited laboratory, test the
motors according to the appropriate
IEEE test procedure. See Table IV.5 for
the NEMA recommended efficiencies,
the catalog rated efficiencies, and the
tested efficiencies of the three baseline
models.
11 Available
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at: https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml.
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WReier-Aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
manufacturing of each design. The bill
of materials is multiplied by markups
for scrap, overhead 10 (which includes
depreciation) and associated nonproduction costs such as interest
payments, research and development,
and sales and general administration.
The software output also includes an
estimate of labor time associated with
each step of motor construction. DOE
multiplied these estimates by a fully
burdened labor rate to obtain an
estimate of labor costs.
During the public meeting, DOE
received two comments regarding
inputs to the cost model. Edison Electric
Institute expressed concern with how
DOE would handle material pricing for
input commodity prices since the past
several years have seen drastic
fluctuations in these prices. (EEI, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 161–
62) NEEA reiterated these concerns and
suggested that DOE use a distribution of
commodity prices and generate various
pricing scenarios. (NEEA, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 164)
DOE decided to estimate input costs
by using an inflation-adjusted 5-year
average of prices for each of the input
commodities: steel laminations, copper
wiring, and aluminum and copper for
rotor die-casting. This method for
calculating costs is consistent with past
rulemakings where material costs were
a significant part of manufacturers’
costs. In calculating the 5-year average
prices for these commodities, DOE
adjusted historical prices to 2008 terms
using the historical Producer Price
Index (PPI) for that commodity’s
industry. DOE also performed a cost
sensitivity analysis in which it
examined both a high and low cost
scenario for commodities. For all
commodity prices, DOE used the PPI to
determine the high and low cost points
and then input those costs into the cost
model. This allowed DOE to generate a
high commodities cost case and a low
commodities cost case for the
engineering analysis results. Please refer
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Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
DOE also received comment on
removing a motor that was analyzed for
the preliminary analysis from further
analysis. In the preliminary analysis,
DOE analyzed two CSIR motors of the
same horsepower and pole
configuration, but with different frame
sizes. After the engineering analysis
showed little difference in the costefficiency relationship, DOE decided
not to include the motor with the larger
frame size in the subsequent NIA and
LCC analyses. Adjuvant Consulting
stated that they agreed with this
decision (Adjuvant Consulting, No. 9 at
p. 4) However, NEMA disagreed with
the implication that frame size makes
little difference on the cost-efficiency
relationship in their comment and
stated that they believed the little
differences shown between the motors
analyzed was due to the differences in
other design characteristics of the
baseline motor. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 19)
DOE considered both of these
comments when choosing appropriate
product classes to analyze. DOE agrees
with Adjuvant Consulting and believes
that an analysis of two motors with
different frame sizes, but in the same
product class is not necessary. DOE also
agrees with NEMA’s assessment that the
reason there was little difference
between the two CSIR motors was due
to the difference in the baseline design
and not that there are little differences
in cost-efficiency relationships for
motors with the same ratings, but in
different frame sizes. However, in the
NOPR, DOE chose not to analyze two
motors in the same product class with
different frame sizes. Instead, DOE
selected motors with the most restricted
frame size seen in the respective
product classes. DOE believes this is the
best way to assess the efficiency
capabilities of motors in the
representative product classes.
Emerson stated that the software
program used by DOE in developing its
baseline models should be validated by
actual motor designs that are produced.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at pp. 148–49)
DOE established dimensional and
performance specifications other than
efficiency for the baseline models by
examining all outputs of the IEEE test
procedures and performing teardowns
of the purchased motors. The IEEE test
procedures provide several motor
performance characteristics including
speed, power factor, torque, and line
current at various load points. After
compiling these test data, DOE’s
subcontractor tore down each motor
purchased to obtain internal
dimensions, copper wire gauges, steel
grade, and any other pertinent design
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information. Finally, the purchased
motors were created in the designer’s
software and used as the baseline
models in each analyzed product class
for the engineering analysis. Again, the
three product classes that were analyzed
were: CSIR, 1⁄2 horsepower, 4-pole;
CSCR 3⁄4 horsepower, 4-pole; and
polyphase, 1 horsepower, 4-pole motors.
The specifications of the baseline
models can be found in detail in TSD
chapter 5.
5. Design Options and Limitations
In the market and technology
assessment for the preliminary analyses,
DOE defined an initial list of
technologies that could increase the
energy efficiency of small electric
motors. In the screening analysis for the
preliminary analyses, DOE screened out
two of these technologies (PBIP and an
air gap less than 12.5 thousandths of an
inch) based on four screening criteria:
technological feasibility; practicability
to manufacture, install, and service;
impacts on equipment utility or
availability; and impacts on health or
safety. The remaining technologies
became inputs to the preliminary
analyses engineering analysis as design
options.
In addition to the comments DOE
received about the list of design options
considered in the screening analysis,
DOE also received several comments
about design limitations that should be
considered. Among these design
limitations are limits on how much to
apply certain design options and motor
performance characteristics that should
be monitored and maintained. The
comments addressed all of the following
issues: manufacturability, motor size,
service factor, skew, the air gap between
the rotor and stator, power factor, speed,
service factor, slot fill, locked-rotor
conditions, no-load conditions,
breakdown torque, and thermal
characteristics of the motor.
a. Manufacturability
Baldor commented during the public
meeting that manufacturability was its
primary concern and urged DOE to
consider this factor. (Baldor, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 108)
NEMA and the NEEA and the Northwest
Power and Conservation Council
reiterated this view in their respective
comments submitted after the public
meeting. (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 6; NEEA
and NPCC, No. 9 at p. 4) DOE agrees
with these comments and believes that
through the application of the design
limitations that follow in this section,
DOE has maintained manufacturability
in all motor designs it presents.
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b. Motor Size
Motor size was a topic repeatedly
addressed by interested parties. WEG
and Emerson both commented that a
result of energy conservation standards
and increasing the efficiency of small
electric motors could be that the motor
length, diameter, or both will increase.
(WEG, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
8.5 at p. 79; Emerson, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 80–81) This
concerned manufacturers because larger
motors that result from higher efficiency
standards may no longer fit into
applications and OEMs would be forced
to redesign their equipment. DOE
recognizes that lower cost high
efficiency motor designs can be
produced either with larger diameters or
a longer stack length. DOE constrained
the motor diameter in its engineering
analysis and simplified its analysis of
space constrained applications by
addressing space constraint issues in
only the stack length dimension. DOE
assumes that motor users whose
applications are not space constrained
in terms of diameter, would purchase a
motor with the next higher frame size.
At the public meeting, WEG stated
that there is no set amount of additional
stack height that can be added to a
design without affecting end-use
application because manufacturers often
push those limits (WEG, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 129) NEMA
suggested that DOE use a maximum
stack length increase of less than 20
percent to account for the size
restrictions that certain motor
applications will have. (NEMA, No. 13
at p. 4)
When establishing design limitations
for the motor designs produced, DOE
considered these comments. DOE
decided that increasing the stack height
of a motor can result in the motor no
longer fitting into certain applications.
Taking the concerns raised during the
comment period into account, DOE
utilized a maximum increase of stack
height of no more than 20 percent from
the baseline motor. However, DOE also
believes that not all applications would
be held to this 20 percent limitation.
Because this design limitation has a
drastic effect on the cost-efficiency
relationship for small electric motors,
and not all applications would be bound
to that restriction, DOE provides a
second set of engineering results for
each product class analyzed. This
second set of results has a much less
stringent limit of increasing the stack
height, of 100 percent. That is, DOE has
two designs for each motor analyzed, at
each efficiency level; one for the motor
designs adhering to a maximum stack
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height increase of 20 percent and one
adhering to 100 percent. However, for
some of the lower efficiency levels,
where a change in steel grade or an
increase of stack height above 20
percent is not needed, both sets of
designs are the same. DOE uses a
weighted average of the MSPs from the
20 percent constrained designs and the
100 percent constrained designs based
on the distribution of size-constrained
applications that use small electric
motors.
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c. Service Factor
As discussed in section IV.A.1 service
factor is a performance characteristic
motor manufacturers must observe
when designing their motors. In its
comment, NEMA suggested that service
factor be considered so that subsequent
more efficient designs are still proper
replacements of the baseline motor
design. (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 7) DOE
agrees with this comment and therefore,
will maintain the service factor of the
baseline motor design for each
subsequent, more efficient design
produced.
d. Skew and Stay-Load Loss
Another design limitation that was
discussed at the public meeting was
decreasing the degree of rotor skew. At
the preliminary analyses public
meeting, Emerson commented that if
rotor skew is removed in a single-phase
motor, the motor will not start.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at p. 134) Regal-Beloit also had
concerns about this design option and
stated that reducing motor skew could
cause the rotor to be noisy when
running. (Regal-Beloit, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 135–36)
DOE agrees that removing all of the
skew from a single-phase motor will
prevent it from starting. DOE also agrees
that too much reduction of skew could
cause the motor to become noisy.
However, DOE does believe that
reducing the degree of skew could
provide efficiency gains depending
upon the characteristics of the baseline
model. DOE understands that this
design option is subjective and relies
heavily on the baseline motor design
and experience of the motor design
engineer. DOE did not use this design
option for the motors analyzed in the
engineering analysis because the skew
of the baseline model was optimized.
However DOE did not eliminate it as a
design option prior to purchasing and
tearing down its baseline motors.
Additionally, Baldor said that
changing skew will affect the stray-load
losses in a motor. As mentioned DOE
did not implement this design option,
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but did assume 1.0 percent for the value
of stray-load loss. Baldor recommended
that instead of assuming 1.0 percent,
DOE should assume 1.8 percent because
that is recommended in the IEEE
standard. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 176) After
examining the IEEE standard, DOE
agrees with Baldor and has assumed 1.8
percent for the amount of stray-load loss
in its motor designs.
e. Air Gap
The air gap between the rotor and
stator was another topic discussed at the
preliminary analyses public meeting
and DOE received two pertinent
comments. As discussed in the
screening analysis, Baldor stated that
reducing the air gap between the rotor
and stator could have negative effects on
efficiency. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 119) NEMA
added that although reducing the air gap
could improve small electric motor
efficiency, it recommended that DOE
not decrease the air gap in its designs to
less than 12.5 thousandths of an inch
because smaller air gaps could be
problematic causing rotor and stator
contact, especially as the motors get
longer. (NEMA, No. 13, pp. 3, 5)
After careful consideration of these
comments, DOE agrees that decreasing
the air gap between the stator and rotor
down to 12.5 thousandths of an inch is
a viable design option. Reducing the gap
below that amount would increase the
risk of creating potential performance
and reliability issues that could arise
with contact between the rotor and
stator as well introduce
manufacturability concerns regarding
the ability of manufacturers to build
motors with these significantly tighter
tolerances. Therefore, DOE set one of its
design limitations as maintaining at
least 12.5 thousandths of inch for an air
gap.
f. Power Factor
The rated power factor of a motor was
an issue that was raised at the
preliminary analyses public meeting.
Baldor commented that the power
factors of some designs in the
preliminary analyses engineering
analysis were extremely low and that
such power factors would result in line
losses that can negate gains in motor
efficiency. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 174) NEMA
followed up this comment suggesting
that a minimum power factor needs to
be established as a design limitation.
(NEMA, No. 13 at p. 6) PG&E, SCE,
SCGC, and SDGE reiterated these
sentiments and suggested that a power
factor of 75 percent should be
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61429
maintained for all designs. (Joint
Comment, No. 12 at p. 3)
DOE understands that sacrificing
power factor to obtain gains in
efficiency is counterproductive because
of the negative effects on line efficiency.
Therefore DOE agrees that power factor
must be considered when designing
more efficient small electric motors.
However, DOE does not believe that it
is necessary to maintain a power factor
of 75 percent for all designs. Instead,
DOE has opted to maintain or increase
the power factor of the baseline motor
for each more efficient design and
therefore does not negate any gains in
efficiency.
g. Speed
DOE also received comment about the
rated speed of its designs during the
preliminary analyses public meeting.
Baldor commented that DOE should
monitor the trend of full-load speed as
motor designs become more efficient
and DOE should try to maintain the
speed of the baseline as much as
possible. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 177–78)
NEMA reaffirmed this position and
stated that to maintain utility for some
applications, for example a fan or pump,
as efficiency is increased from design to
design, full-load speed must be
maintained (NEMA, No. 13 at pp. 6–7)
DOE consulted with its own technical
expert when setting a design limitation
for full-load speed. DOE found that a
decrease in full-load speed could have
a negative impact on the utility of the
motor design considered a replacement
of the baseline. Additionally, DOE
understands that speed is directly
related to the I2R losses 12 found in a
motor and by maintaining it, those
losses are kept reasonable.
Subsequently, by not increasing I2R
losses, it is easier to increase the overall
efficiency of the motor. Therefore, DOE
agreed with the comments and decided
that each design created by its
subcontractor should maintain or
increase the full-load speed of the
baseline motor that was tested and
modeled.
h. Thermal Performance
After the preliminary analyses public
meeting, NEMA suggested that DOE
complete a thermal analysis and urged
DOE to examine rotor temperature
during operation. (NEMA, No. 13 at
p. 8)
12 I2R losses stem from the current flow through
the copper windings in the stator and conductor
bars in the rotor. These losses are manifested as
waste heat, which can shorten the service life of a
motor.
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DOE carefully considered this
comment for the NOPR phase of this
rulemaking. DOE decided to create a
baseline design modeled after a small
electric motor manufactured and sold
on the market today. DOE purchased a
baseline motor for each of the product
classes analyzed in the engineering
analysis. This motor was tested
according to the corresponding IEEE test
procedure and the rotor squirrel-cage
temperature was monitored using
thermocouples. DOE believes that by
maintaining speed and increasing
efficiency, the thermal integrity of the
baseline motor will be maintained for
each subsequent design of increased
efficiency. By maintaining the baseline
speed the rotor resistance is not
increased and by increasing efficiency
there is less heat that must be dissipated
in the motor. DOE believes the thermal
integrity of each motor design produced
for this rulemaking’s analysis is
preserved as a result these factors.
i. Slot Fill
DOE received comments on the
percentages of slot fill used in the
designs presented for the preliminary
analyses public meeting. The maximum
level of slot fill DOE allowed in the
preliminary engineering analysis was 75
percent. NEMA stated that a more
typical limit of slot fill is 65 percent.
(NEMA, No. 13 at p. 3) Emerson stated
that manufacturers could surpass
current limits on slot fill, but this would
require a hand winding technique by
individual workers instead of using
automated winding machinery.
(Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at p. 130) Lastly, NEMA also
recommended that DOE use a minimum
slot fill. (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 8)
DOE agrees that the level of slot fill
is bound by a minimum and a
maximum. DOE understands that a
minimum slot fill is necessary in order
for a motor to work. After consultation
with technical experts DOE decided that
a minimum slot fill of 50 percent should
be maintained for all designs. DOE also
agrees with the comments that a
maximum level of slot fill is necessary
and that that level should be 65 percent.
Although it is possible to exceed this
slot fill percentage and get closer to 75
percent, DOE found that this would take
uncommon techniques that could
inhibit mass production.
j. Current and Torque Characteristics
NEMA discussed in its written
comments the performance
characteristics that should be met for all
motor designs produced by DOE for its
analysis. These performance
specifications include a minimum
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locked-rotor torque, a maximum lockedrotor current, a minimum breakdown
torque, and a maximum no-load current.
NEMA pointed out that MG1–1987 does
not establish locked-rotor torque
standards for polyphase motors, but it
made no suggestion of what alternative
should be used. NEMA also pointed out
that MG1–1987 does not require a
maximum locked-rotor current for small
polyphase motors, but suggested that
DOE use the standards for medium
motors of corresponding horsepower,
which are shown in MG 1–12.35.
(NEMA, No. 13 at p. 6) Breakdown
torque was another motor performance
characteristic for which NEMA directed
DOE to specific sections of MG1–1987
for both single and polyphase motors.
(NEMA, No. 13 at p. 6) Finally, NEMA
discussed no-load characteristics in
their comment. While they made no
suggestions for single-phase motors,
NEMA believed that an average no-load
current for polyphase small electric
motors should be 25–35 percent of the
rated-load current. (NEMA, No. 13 at p.
7)
DOE appreciates NEMA’s comments
clarifying the performance
specifications set forth by NEMA MG1–
1987 for general-purpose small electric
motors. DOE agrees with NEMA that
any motor design produced should meet
the specifications shown in MG1–1987.
That is, for single-phase motors all
designs should meet the locked-rotor
torque shown in MG1–12.32.2, the
locked-rotor current shown in MG1–
12.33.2, and the breakdown torque
shown in MG1–12.32.1. For polyphase
motors, the breakdown torque should be
in the range shown in MG1–12.37. DOE
agrees that the locked-rotor current
specifications for medium polyphase
motors are a fair gauge, and therefore
design limitation for small polyphase
motors of corresponding horsepower
ratings because of the similarities in
design and performance. For the
performance requirements not specified
in NEMA MG1–1987, DOE believes that
the best design limitation is to meet or
exceed the performance of the baseline
motor used for each product class
analyzed because this prevents overrestricting the design.
6. Scaling Methodology
As has been discussed in sections
IV.C.2 and IV.C.4, DOE only analyzed
three of the 72 product classes defined
for small electric motors. Therefore,
DOE needed to scale the results for
these three product classes to the other
69. DOE presented an approach for
scaling at the preliminary analyses
public meeting. The first step in the
previous scaling methodology was
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translating efficiency standards for
medium motors into motor losses. DOE
used two equations to obtain motor
losses. DOE then examined these data
sets to find a mathematical relationship
explaining the change of motor losses
relative to changes in horsepower and
number of poles for medium motors.
Finally, DOE assumed the relationships
found in medium motors could be
extrapolated to describe how losses, and
thus efficiency, would scale for small
electric motors.
DOE received comments on the
scaling methodology that was presented
at the preliminary analyses public
meeting. Baldor stated that using
medium motor efficiency standards may
not be accurate because medium motors
are manufactured in three-digit frame
sizes, and thus, the relationships found
in medium motors may not be accurate
for small electric motors with two-digit
frames. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 191)
Additionally, NEMA noted that for
medium motor efficiency standards,
frame size changes with each change in
horsepower. This is not the case for
small electric motors where frame sizes
are used for a range of horsepower
ratings, and in some instances overlap.
Therefore, NEMA said medium motors
data are not applicable to small electric
motors and should not be used. (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 10)
DOE appreciates these comments and
considered them when reevaluating
scaling relationships for small electric
motors in the NOPR. Because there are
no current standards for small electric
motors, efficiency data are not as widely
accessible for them. However, DOE did
examine catalog efficiency data for
small electric motors to determine if the
relationships gleaned from medium
motors may be an appropriate
approximation for small electric motors.
After examining publicly available
catalog data, DOE agrees with the
conjectures made by Baldor and NEMA
that the relationships found in medium
motors are not an accurate
representation of the relationships
found in small electric motors.
Therefore, DOE has foregone the use of
medium motors efficiency data and has
used publicly available catalog data, as
well as test data, to scale the results of
the three analyzed product classes to the
remaining 69.
Baldor made another comment about
the two equations DOE used to describe
motor losses. Baldor stated that it was
inaccurate to use the first equation DOE
presented, 100 ¥ efficiency, to describe
motor losses. Instead, DOE should only
use the second equation they presented,
which is also the accepted industry
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equation, 100 × [(100/efficiency) ¥ 1].
Baldor, along with NEMA,
recommended that DOE only use the
latter equation when describing motor
losses. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 188–90;
NEMA, No. 13 at p. 9)
DOE agrees with Baldor’s and
NEMA’s comments about motor losses
and has only used the industry accepted
equation to calculate them for the
NOPR. DOE hopes that by using the one
equation it will promote good, industryaccepted equations and also simplify
the methodology used to scale
efficiencies to all product classes.
As discussed in section IV.A.2. Baldor
and Emerson commented at the public
meeting that frame size should be a
criterion for distinguishing product
classes. (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 70–71;
Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at pp. 75–76) DOE addressed
this comment again when developing
scaling relationships for small electric
motors.
For the NOPR analyses, DOE’s scaling
approach leveraged a combination of
publicly available catalog data and test
data. First, DOE developed a database of
over 3,000 motors built in a NEMA twodigit frame size. The database was then
filtered to create a comprehensive list of
motors that meet the statutory definition
of a small electric motor. Through this
database, DOE could address the issue
of frame size and how it pertains to
product classes. DOE used the database
to find the most restricted frame size
seen at each product class. Having these
data, DOE filtered the database again to
remove all efficiency data points for
motors with an unrestricted frame size.
For example, for a polyphase 3⁄4 hp 4pole motor, manufacturers use 48 and
56 frames. Therefore, DOE removed all
efficiency points for motors with a 56
frame size because its achievable
efficiency is not as restricted as the 48
frame size motor.
DOE filtered the database again to
ensure an accurate assessment of market
efficiency levels. DOE sorted the
database by manufacturer and examined
individual product lines. If
manufacturers produce two lines of
motors based on differences in
efficiency, DOE examined that data
separately. Product lines for each
manufacturer included efficiency data
for two, four, and six pole motors where
available. This approach allowed DOE
to examine how efficiency changes with
respect to horsepower and number of
poles.
DOE supplemented the catalog data
with actual test data to validate
conclusions drawn from that catalog
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data. An accredited lab performed IEEE
standard 112, test methods A and B, and
IEEE standard 114 to find efficiency
data for 19 small electric motors. The
motors selected for testing were pulled
from the same product line for a given
manufacturer. All three motor
categories, pole configurations, and a
full range of horsepower ratings were
represented.
Once these data sets were prepared,
DOE then converted the efficiency into
motor losses using the industryaccepted equation mentioned above.
This allowed DOE to use the most
accurate line of best fit to fill in any gaps
of data, which then enabled DOE to
obtain an aggregated picture of motor
losses (and thus efficiency) for the
market based on both catalog data and
laboratory accredited test data. Finally,
the motor loss levels seen for each
product class were shifted by a
percentage increase corresponding to
the difference in efficiency level for the
three analyzed motors.
However, because information on
CSCR motors was not as widely
attainable, DOE relied on the
relationships that it ascertained for CSIR
motors to scale the results for CSCR
motors. From the available catalog data,
DOE found that efficiency tracked with
horsepower the same way for both
motor categories, but CSCR motors were
more efficient.
7. Nominal Efficiency
With regard to the efficiency levels
analyzed for small electric motors,
NEMA recommended that DOE select
efficiency values that coincide with
‘‘nominal’’ efficiencies listed in Table
12–10 of NEMA MG1–2006, currently
being used for polyphase medium
motors. NEMA also stated that DOE
should not reference the column of
‘‘minimum’’ efficiencies seen in that
table because those values are based on
tolerances in the determination of total
losses or efficiency through testing
polyphase medium motors in
accordance with IEEE standard 112 test
method B. (NEMA, No. 13 at pp. 10–11)
Polyphase medium electric motors
(those motors manufactured in threedigit frame series) are currently
regulated by DOE as a result of EPACT
1992 and EISA 2007. The efficiency
levels established by these Acts
correspond to ‘‘nominal’’ efficiencies
selected from a table in NEMA MG1
(Table 12–6A for NEMA MG1–1987 and
table 12–10 for NEMA MG1–2006). Each
‘‘nominal’’ efficiency level shown in the
table contains a corresponding
‘‘minimum’’ efficiency. By calculating
both an average efficiency and a
minimum efficiency from a population
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of motors tested, and by utilizing the
look-up tables referenced, medium
electric motor manufacturers report a
‘‘nominal’’ efficiency from these tables
for compliance and labeling purposes.
As the industry standard states,
‘‘nominal efficiency’’ represents a value
that characterizes the energy
consumption of a group of motors,
accounting for variations in materials,
manufacturing processes, and tests that
result in motor-to-motor efficiency
variations.
As ‘‘nominal efficiency’’ is a widely
used and appropriate metric to
characterize the efficiency of electric
motors, if an equivalent table for small
electric polyphase and single phase
motors exists, DOE would support its
use for the calculation of small electric
motor efficiency. However, to DOE’s
knowledge, and corroborated by
NEMA’s comment, no such table exists.
In addition, DOE agrees with NEMA
that the ‘‘minimum efficiency’’ values
associated with the ‘‘nominal
efficiency’’ values in the referenced
tables are not necessarily appropriate for
small electric motors. Additionally, the
increments of the ‘‘nominal efficiency’’
values in Table 12–10 of NEMA MG1–
2006 range from 0.1 percent to 2.0
percent. Since these increments in
efficiency do not follow a regular
pattern and can, at the larger intervals,
constitute significant changes in
efficiency, particularly for small electric
motors, DOE feels that they cannot
simply replicate a similar table without
a significant amount of test data that
would need to be provided by
manufacturers and verified by technical
experts. In consideration of the
inapplicability of the referenced
medium motor tables and the lack of
data to produce a similar table for small
electric motors, DOE does not feel that
it is appropriate to set efficiency
standards for small electric motors
based on the values in Table 12–10 of
NEMA MG1–2006.
DOE also notes that the test procedure
for small electric motors requires
manufacturers to report a ‘‘nominal fullload efficiency.’’ This term, when
discussed within the context of electric
motors generally, is defined by EPCA as
the average efficiency of a population of
motors of duplicate design as
determined in accordance with MG1–
1987. 42 U.S.C. 6311((13)(I). As this
term is not defined for small electric
motors, to ensure consistency with the
statute, DOE proposes to apply this
definition for ‘‘nominal full-load
efficiency’’ to small electric motors and
to adopt a definition consistent with
such an application into its regulations.
Because MG1–1987 (or any later edition
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of the industry standard) does not
contain provisions for nominal full-load
efficiency for small electric motors, DOE
proposes to adopt a definition for
‘‘nominal full-load efficiency’’ of small
electric motors that is equivalent to the
average full-load efficiency of a
population of small electric motors.
While DOE considered amending the
definition of ‘‘nominal full-load
efficiency’’ for small electric motors to
create a parallel definition as the one
used for electric motors (which utilizes
tables of minimum and nominal
efficiencies), this would require a
significant amount of testing and
industry collaboration that has not yet
occurred. Therefore, to ensure a
complete test procedure and fullydefined energy conservation standards,
DOE proposes to adopt a definition for
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‘‘nominal full-load efficiency’’ of small
electric motors that is equivalent to the
average full-load efficiency of a
population of small electric motors. If,
in the future, a table for small electric
motors similar to Table 12–10 of NEMA
MG1–2006 is developed, DOE may
conduct a separate rulemaking to
consider amending the definition of
‘‘nominal full-load efficiency’’ to make
it consistent with the approach taken for
medium motors, which makes reference
to a specific table of efficiencies for
‘‘nominal full-load efficiency.’’
8. Cost-Efficiency Results
The results of the engineering analysis
are reported as cost-efficiency data (or
‘‘curves’’) in the form of MSP (in
dollars) versus full-load efficiency (in
percentage). These data form the basis
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for subsequent analyses in the NOPR.
DOE developed two curves for each
product class analyzed, one for the set
of designs restricted by a 20 percent
increase and one for those restricted by
a 100 percent increase in stack height
from the baseline. The methodology for
developing the curves started with
determining the energy efficiency for
baseline models and MPCs for each
product class analyzed. Above the
baseline, DOE implemented various
combinations of design options. Design
options were implemented until all
available technologies were employed
(i.e., at a max-tech level). See TSD
chapter 5 for additional detail on the
engineering analysis and the complete
set of cost-efficiency results.
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D. Markups To Determine Equipment
Price
The markups analysis develops
supply-chain markups and sales taxes
that DOE uses to convert MSPs to
customer or consumer equipment prices
for small electric motors.
WReier-Aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
1. Distribution Channels
Before it could develop markups, DOE
needed to identify distribution channels
(i.e., how the equipment is distributed
from the manufacturer to the end user)
for each category of motor addressed in
this rulemaking. Because most of the
small electric motors are used as
components in larger pieces of
equipment, most of the market passes
through OEMs that design, assemble,
and brand products that contain small
electric motors. OEMs obtain their
motors either directly from the motor
manufacturers or from distributors.
For small electric motors, DOE
defined three distribution channels and
estimated their respective shares of
shipments in its determination analysis:
(1) From manufacturers to OEMs and
then to end users through OEM
distribution; (2) from manufacturers to
wholesale distributors to OEMs and
then to end users through OEM
equipment distribution; and (3) from
manufacturers to end users through
distributors and retailers. Contractors
also play a role in installing motors in
equipment. DOE used the same
distribution channel types and market
shares in the preliminary analysis as it
used in the determination analysis.
NEMA and Emerson commented that
the proportion of shipments through the
three channels as specified in the
determination analysis was incorrect,
and the correct market shares for each
distribution channel are: 65 Percent for
direct shipments to OEMs, 30 percent
for shipments to OEMs through
distributors, and 5 percent for
shipments directly to users (Emerson,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 218–19; NEMA, No. 13 at p. 19). The
NEEA and the Northwest Power
Planning Council recommended that
DOE should corroborate distribution
channel market shares with industry
input (NEEA and NPCC, No. 9 at p. 5).
DOE used the distribution market shares
recommended by NEMA and Emerson
in the NOPR analysis.
2. Estimation of Markups
DOE based its markups on financial
data from the U.S. Census Business
Expenses Survey (BES). DOE assumed
that the sales revenues reported by firms
reflect the prices that they charge for
products, while the expenses that they
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reported to the BES reflect costs. DOE
organized the financial data into balance
sheets that break down cost components
incurred by firms that sell the products
and related these cost components to
revenues to estimate the markups that
determine sales price.
DOE’s markup analysis developed
both baseline and incremental markups
to transform the manufacturer sales
price into an end-user equipment price.
DOE used the baseline markups to
determine the price of baseline models.
Incremental markups are coefficients
that relate the change in the
manufacturer sales price of higherefficiency models to the change in the
OEM, retailer, or distributor sales price.
These markups refer to higher-efficiency
models sold under market conditions
with new energy conservation
standards.
DOE used financial data from the BES
for the ‘‘Electrical Goods Merchant
Wholesalers’’ category to calculate
markups used by distributors of motors
for direct distribution; for the
‘‘Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies
Merchant Wholesalers’’ category to
calculate markups used by distributors
of equipment containing small electric
motors; and for the ‘‘Building materials,
hardware, garden supply and mobile
home dealers’’ category to calculate
markups used by OEMs that apply to
products containing motors.
DOE based the OEM markups and
distributor markups on data from the
‘‘2002 Economic Census Manufacturing
Industry Series,’’ which reports on the
payroll (production and total), cost of
materials, capital expenditures, and
total value of shipments for
manufacturers of various types of
machinery. Six years of data are
reported for each manufacturer type.
DOE collected data for 11 types of
OEMs.
DOE calculated baseline markups for
each Census industry category. The
resulting markups range between 1.20
(industrial machinery, machine tools)
and 1.56 (heating equipment), with an
average of 1.37. DOE estimated
incremental markups using a least
squares regression of the value of
shipments on payroll and cost of
materials. Because there is a large range
in the size of OEM types, companies
with sales values greater than $10
billion were separated from those with
sales values less than $10 billion. The
incremental markup for larger
companies was 1.28; the incremental
markup for smaller companies was 1.33.
WEG and Emerson commented that
DOE should include recertification and
retesting costs that OEMs may incur due
to a change in the motor that is used in
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OEM equipment (Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 244–48). The
markup factors that DOE derived for
OEMs include average administrative
and regulatory overhead costs such as
might occur with certification and
testing of products for safety. Therefore,
when the manufacturer selling price of
a more efficient motor is marked up by
an OEM, DOE’s analysis provides some
accounting of increased regulatory
overhead costs. In addition, DOE uses
the OEM markups to estimate product
prices and regulation cost impacts for an
analysis period that spans 2015 through
2045, so initial regulatory costs can be
averaged over several years. DOE
believes that over this forecast period,
recertification and testing costs are
included in the OEM markups that it
estimated.
During the presentation of the
preliminary analysis, WEG noted that
shipping costs to the customer should
be explicitly included in the
distribution costs (WEG, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 223). DOE
agrees with this comment. To estimate
shipping costs, DOE surveyed shipping
and freight costs quotes available on the
Internet and found a median value of
$0.5 per pound. In the LCC analysis
DOE added shipping costs to the
installed cost of the motor based on
specific motor weight estimates for each
efficiency level from the engineering
analysis. The engineering analysis
designs provided motor weights for both
space-constrained and non-spaceconstrained motors.
Emerson also commented during the
preliminary analysis presentation that
more efficient, larger motors with
increased stack length could create large
costs for OEMs that use small motors in
space-constrained equipment designs
and that this should be included in
distribution costs (Emerson, Public
Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 241).
DOE addressed this issue in the
engineering and life-cycle cost analyses
by estimating cost and performance
characteristics for motors at all
efficiency levels for both spaceconstrained and less-constrained
designs. DOE assumed that OEMs
addressed their space requirements by
purchasing a more expensive spaceconstrained design for their spaceconstrained application. DOE then
modeled the increased cost of the space
constraint by using the higher, spaceconstrained manufacturer selling price
and by applying the same markup
factors to these higher incremental costs
to estimate the incremental cost to the
consumer.
For installation costs, DOE used
information from RS Means Electrical
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Cost Data 13 to estimate markups used
by contractors who install motors and
OEM equipment. RS Means estimates
material expense markups for electrical
contractors as 10 percent, leading to a
markup factor of 1.10.
The sales tax represents state and
local sales taxes that are applied to the
end-user equipment price. DOE derived
state and local taxes from data provided
by the Sales Tax Clearinghouse. These
data represent weighted averages that
include county and city rates. DOE then
derived population-weighted average
tax values for each Census division and
large state, and then derived U.S.
average tax values using a populatedweighted average of the Census division
and large State values. This approach
provides a national average tax rate of
6.84 percent.
3. Summary of Markups
Using these markups, DOE generated
motor end-user prices for each
efficiency level it considered, assuming
that each level represents a new
minimum efficiency standard. Because
it generated a range of price estimates,
DOE describes prices within a range of
uncertainty.
Chapter 7 of the TSD provides
additional detail on the markups
analysis.
DOE’s characterization of the energy
use for small electric motors estimated
the annual energy use and end-use load
of small electric motors in the field. The
energy use by small electric motors
derives from three components: energy
converted to useful mechanical shaft
power, motor losses, and reactive
power.14 Motor losses consist of I2R
losses, core losses, stray losses and
friction and windage losses. Core losses
and friction and windage losses are
relatively constant with variations in
motor loading, while I2R losses increase
with the square of the motor loading.
Stray losses are also dependent upon
loading. To estimate motor losses, DOE
used the empirical estimates of losses as
a function of loading for the specific
motor designs that were developed in
the engineering analysis.
In practice, reactive power may result
in significant increases in energy
consumption before capacitors in the
electrical system compensate (i.e.,
mitigate) the reactive power that is
generated by end-user loads. DOE
estimated reactive power costs in the
LCC analysis that may arise from
reactive power charges and also
estimated losses from reactive power
that may occur in the electrical system.
In the preliminary analysis public
meeting, DOE presented an analysis of
energy use that separated motor losses
into a constant component and a
component that depends on motor
loading. Both Baldor and NEMA
commented that the approach that DOE
used was non-standard and the
equations proposed for estimating motor
losses were imprecise (Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 228–33;
NEMA, No. 13 at pp. 12–14).
Responding to this comment, DOE
modified its approach for the NOPR
analysis. Rather than model motor
losses with a potentially imprecise
simplified equation, DOE used the
direct loss estimates provided by the
13 RS Means Construction Publishers &
Consultants, ‘‘Electrical Cost Data, 31st Annual
Edition.’’ 2008. J.H. Chiang, ed. Kingston, MA.
14 In an alternating current power system, the
reactive power is created when voltage and current
are shifted in phase and is calculated from the root
mean square (RMS) voltage multiplied by the RMS
current multiplied by the sine of the phase
difference between the voltage and the current.
Reactive power occurs when the inductance or
capacitance of the load shifts the phase of the
voltage relative to the phase of the current. While
reactive power does not consume energy, it can
increase losses and costs for the electricity
distribution system. Motors tend to create reactive
power because the windings in the motor coils have
high inductance which shifts the phase of the
voltage relative to the current.
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E. Energy Use Characterization
Table IV.9 summarizes the markups at
each stage in the distribution channel
and the overall baseline and
incremental markups, and sales taxes,
for each of the three identified channels.
Weighting the markups in each channel
by its share of shipments yields an
average overall baseline markup of 2.49
and an average overall incremental
markup of 1.83. DOE used these
markups for each product class.
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engineering analysis which are available
as an empirical function of motor
loading. DOE provides motor losses as
a function of loading for each design in
motor loading increments of 25 percent
for all designs evaluated in the analysis.
A more detailed description and
accompanying motor loss tables are
contained in chapter 6 of the TSD.
The final step in estimating annual
energy use from motor losses is
estimating the annual hours of motor
operation. DOE estimated the annual
energy consumed by motor losses as the
loss (in watts) times the annual hours of
operation. The annual hours of
operation of small electric motors is
dependent mostly on the particular
application to which the motor is being
applied.
In its preliminary analysis, DOE
modeled each motor in a given
application as operating for a fixed
number of hours, equal to the average
hours of operation determined for that
application. As part of updating its
motor application and operation
analysis, DOE examined published data
regarding the distribution of hours of
operation for motors. DOE concluded
that the available data regarding the
distribution of hours of operation of
general-purpose motors could be well
characterized as the superposition of an
exponential distribution and a fraction
of motors run nearly continuously (8760
hours per year). DOE used this
information to develop distributions for
each motor application as a function of
the average annual hours of operation.
In written comments submitted
following the January 30, 2009, public
meeting, NEMA provided estimates for
typical hours of operation for motors in
compressor, small pumping, and
‘‘general industry’’ applications (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 19). DOE developed a model
for the national distribution of annual
hours of operation within each motor
application that maintained as much
consistency as possible with all
available sources of data including
NEMA’s comment, estimates developed
earlier in the rulemaking, and operating
hour distributions available in the
technical literature. The operating hour
distributions developed by DOE take the
form of the superposition of an
exponential distribution (in which the
number of motors decreases with
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increasing hours of operation) with a
small population of motors that run
100% of the time. DOE found in its
analysis that the typical hours of
operation as provided by NEMA are
substantially lower than average hours
of operation as estimated by DOE, but
are consistent with DOE’s median
estimates of annual operating hours for
four out of five application categories.
Details regarding DOE’s estimates of
hours of operation are available in
chapter 6 of the TSD.
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
Analysis
The LCC analysis calculates, at the
consumer level, the discounted savings
in operating costs throughout the
estimated average life of the small
electric motor, compared to any increase
in installed costs likely to result directly
from the imposition of the standard. The
payback period analysis estimates the
amount of time it takes consumers to
recover the higher purchase expense of
more energy efficient equipment
through lower operating costs.
The LCC is the total consumer
expense over the life of the equipment,
including purchase expense and
operating costs (including energy
expenditures). To compute LCCs for
equipment users, DOE discounts future
operating costs to the time of purchase
and sums them over the lifetime of the
equipment. The payback period is the
change in purchase expense due to an
increased efficiency standard, divided
by the change in annual operating cost
that results from the standard. That is,
the payback period is the time period it
takes to recoup the increased purchase
cost (including installation) of a more
efficient product through energy
savings.
Inputs to the calculation of total
installed cost include the cost of the
product—which includes manufacturer
costs and markups, retailer or
distributor markups, and sales taxes—
and installation costs. Inputs to the
calculation of operating expenses
include annual energy consumption,
energy prices and price projections,
repair and maintenance costs, product
lifetimes, discount rates, and the year
that proposed standards take effect. DOE
created distributions of values for some
inputs to account for their uncertainty
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and variability. For example, DOE
created a probability distribution of
annual energy consumption based in
part on a range of annual operating
hours. This range of annual operating
hours is based on a derived sample of
end-use applications for small electric
motors. According to this range, the
majority of these motors operates only a
few hours per day, while a substantial
minority of motors run nearly all hours
of the day. LCC values reflect the
aggregate effect of inputs weighted
according to a combination of point
values and probability distributions.
DOE also used probability distributions
to characterize variability in markups,
discount rates and product lifetime.
Details of all the inputs to the LCC and
PBP analysis are contained in chapter 8
of the TSD.
As described above, DOE used
samples of a population of motors and
motor applications to characterize the
variability in energy consumption and
energy prices for this equipment. DOE
also used a simple partitioning of motor
applications to space-constrained and
unconstrained applications.
The computer model DOE uses to
calculate LCC and PBP, which
incorporates Crystal Ball (a
commercially available software
program), relies on a Monte Carlo
simulation to incorporate uncertainty
and variability into the analysis. The
Monte Carlo simulations randomly
sample input values from the
probability distributions and equipment
user samples. The model calculated the
LCC and PBP for equipment at each
efficiency level for 10,000 motor units
per simulation run. Details of the
spreadsheet model DOE used for
analyzing the economic impacts of
possible standards on individual
consumers, and of all the inputs to the
LCC and PBP analysis, are contained in
chapter 8 of the TSD.
Table IV.10 summarizes the approach
and data DOE used to derive inputs to
the LCC and PBP calculations. The table
provides the data and approach used for
the preliminary TSD and the changes
made for today’s NOPR. The following
subsections discuss the initial inputs
and the changes made to them.
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1. Baseline and Standard Level
Efficiencies
For the preliminary analysis, DOE
used mathematical interpolation of
specific engineering designs to estimate
the costs and losses of motors at
baseline efficiencies and a set of
candidate standard levels that had
performance characteristics different
from the initial engineering designs.
NEMA commented that it is important
for the efficiency levels used in the
consumer economic analysis to match
the efficiency levels in the engineering
analysis so that interested parties can
have confidence that concrete designs
exist that can satisfy the proposed
standard levels (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 16).
DOE agrees with this comment and for
this NOPR it analyzed efficiency levels
for which it developed specific
engineering designs.
In response to DOE’s preliminary
analysis, EEI commented that since
medium motors are already regulated by
DOE under Section 313(b) of the Energy
Independence and Security Act of 2007,
Pub. L. 110–140 (Dec. 19, 2007) (EISA
2007), and since polyphase general
purpose small electric motors are very
similar to polyphase general purpose
medium electric motors, it is important
for DOE to consider standard levels for
small electric motors that are closely
aligned with the standard for medium
electric motors (EEI, No. 14 at p. 2). DOE
agrees with this comment and designed
TSL 5 for polyphase small electric
motors to be closely aligned with the
efficiency level for medium motors
regulated under EISA 2007.
WReier-Aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
2. Installed Equipment Cost
DOE determined the baseline MSP
and the MSP increases associated with
increases in product efficiency for each
small electric motor product class in the
engineering analysis (section IV.C.7 of
this NOPR and chapter 5 of the TSD).
MSPs are the prices of the equipment at
the factory door. They do not include
distribution markups, but do include
manufacturer markups.
DOE determined the installed cost of
small electric motors by adding
distribution markups and installation
costs to the MSPs determined in the
engineering analysis. DOE determined
the baseline and incremental markups
for each point in the small electric
motor supply chain, as well as shipping
costs and sales taxes, in the markups
analysis (section II.E of this ANOPR and
chapter 7 of the TSD). The overall
baseline (2.35) and incremental (1.70)
markups, which include sales tax, are
weighted averages based on the share of
shipments in each of the three identified
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distribution channels. DOE applied the
same markups for each product class.
DOE derived installation costs for
small electric motors from data in the
‘‘RS Means Electrical Cost Data,
2008,’’ 15 which provides estimates on
the labor required to install electric
motors. DOE estimated that the average
installation cost is $253. Since it found
no information to indicate differences in
installation costs among motor
applications, DOE used the same
installation cost for each product class.
DOE determined that installation costs
would not be affected with increased
energy efficiency levels.
In response to the preliminary
analysis, DOE received several
comments from interested parties
regarding factors that can affect product
prices. The comments, along with DOE’s
responses, are described in the
appropriate sections of this notice that
address the particular cost component:
Costs associated with satisfying motor
space and size constraints are addressed
in the engineering analysis in IV.C
above; costs incurred by OEMs within
the motor distribution chain are
addressed in the markup analysis in
section IV.D; and costs associated with
retooling and investments needed to
manufacture more efficient motors are
addressed in the manufacturer impact
analysis described in section IV.I.
3. Motor Applications
For electric motors, the hours of
operation and loading characteristics of
motor use depend on the particular
application to which the motor is
applied. In its preliminary analysis,
DOE used the same distribution of
motor applications that it used in the
determination analysis. This
distribution included a wide range of
applications, including food processing,
woodworking tools, and farm
machinery. Comments received at the
January 30, 2009, public meeting from
Emerson, WEG, and Regal-Beloit,
(Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 270–76) and from NEMA (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 19) indicated that many of
these applications utilize enclosed
motors (as opposed to those that have an
‘‘open construction’’ design), and such
motors are not covered under this
rulemaking. DOE agrees with these
comments, and has removed these
applications from its analysis. To the
extent that some motors in the
applications no longer analyzed in
detail may be open construction, and
covered by this rule, DOE assumed that
15 RS Means Construction Publishers &
Consultants, ‘‘Electrical Cost Data, 31st Annual
Edition.’’ 2008. J.H. Chiang, ed. Kingston, MA.
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they are incorporated in the ‘‘general
industry’’ category described below.
To improve the classification of motor
applications, DOE studied motor
manufacturer and OEM catalogs that are
publicly available on the Internet to
adjust the categories and the proportion
of small electric motors covered by this
rule used in each application category.
DOE consolidated and narrowed the
applications of covered small electric
motors to four major categories: (1)
Commercial and industrial fans and
blowers; (2) conveyors, packaging, and
material handling; (3) air and gas
compressors (outside of HVAC); and (4)
pumps. In addition, covered motors are
used in a wide and various array of
other applications, which DOE
characterized under the heading
‘‘general industry.’’
4. Annual Operating Hours and Energy
Use
To estimate annual energy use, DOE
multiplied motor losses by the annual
hours of operation. DOE obtained motor
losses as a function of motor loading
from the performance data for specific
designs developed and analyzed in the
engineering analysis. DOE estimated
motor loading as a function of the motor
application. DOE modeled variability in
both motor loading and annual
operating hours by using distributions
for both operational characteristics.
In response to the preliminary
analysis, NEMA commented that motors
in small compressors have estimated
annual hours of operation of 200 to 400
hours per year, motors used in small
pumps have annual operating hours of
1,500 to 2,000 hours per year, while
small motors used in general machinery
in clean environments such as medical
equipment will have estimated annual
hours of operation of 500 to 1,000 hours
per year (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 19). DOE
agrees that these figures represent
approximate median hours of operation
for small compressors, small pumps and
medical equipment with small electric
motors. DOE included medical
equipment in a category of ‘‘general
industry and miscellaneous,’’ which it
estimates has a significant fraction of
applications in the range of 500 to 1,000
hours per year, but which also includes
a large variety of miscellaneous
equipment that DOE estimates has
typical operating hours in the range of
1,000 to 2,000 hours per year. This latter
estimate is consistent with the average
hours of operation estimates developed
during the determination analysis phase
and is consistent with equipment that
runs four to eight hours a day during
normal working hours.
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5. Space Constraints
In response to DOE’s preliminary
analysis, several interested parties
commented on the possibility that
energy conservation standards may
affect motors used in space-constrained
applications. Baldor commented that
DOE needs to correct the statement that
a ‘‘majority of small motor applications
are not constrained by motor length’’
and that the LCC analysis needs to take
into account what it will cost to
redesign OEM equipment to fit larger
motors (Baldor, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 119–21). WEG
commented that changes in stack length
can force OEMs to redesign their
product (WEG, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 244). A joint
comment by PG&E, SCE, SCGC, and
SDGE stated that users with spaceconstrained applications may be able to
resolve the space constraint by changing
the motor type (Joint Comment, No. 12
at p. 3).
In the NOPR analysis, DOE addressed
the issue of space constraints by
calculating the cost and performance
characteristics for both tightly
constrained and less-constrained
engineering designs for motors at each
efficiency level. DOE then reviewed the
range of applications and OEM
equipment that uses the motors covered
by the rulemaking and estimated that
approximately 20 percent of covered
motors are likely to be used in
constrained applications. In the LCC
analysis, DOE assigned 20 percent of
motors to such constrained applications
and used the engineering costs and
performance associated with the
constrained design when calculating
consumer economic impacts. At low
efficiency levels there is no difference
between more and less constrained
motors, but at the highest efficiency
levels, the space-constrained
applications can only be served by the
most expensive motor designs because
the less expensive motors are too large
to fit within constrained spaces. In
addition, DOE provides the LCC results
for space-constrained applications as
one of the consumer subgroups in the
LCC subgroup analysis.
WReier-Aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
6. Power Factor
In its preliminary analysis, DOE
presented real power losses and
requested comment on power factor
effects and the importance of including
reactive power in its engineering,
economic and national impact analyses.
EEI commented that utilities like to see
facility-wide power factor above 90
percent and that power factor penalties
may affect the economics of small
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electric motor efficiency. EEI provided
DOE with the results of a 2003 survey
of power factor charges and costs taken
of its members (EEI, No. 14 at p. 6).
NEMA noted inaccuracies in the
reactive power equations proposed by
DOE in the preliminary analysis and
urged DOE to carefully estimate and
consider power factor effects and
constraints (NEMA, No. 13 at pp. 14–
15).
DOE appreciates the comments and
data provided on this issue and agrees
with the interested parties that this
information can contribute to a more
complete and precise analysis of the
consumer and utility impacts of power
factor changes that may result from
energy conservation standards. DOE
addressed power factor and reactive
power by first estimating power factor
as a function of motor loading for each
of the motor designs analyzed in the
engineering analysis. DOE then
included these data in the LCC analysis
tools so that the analysis included
estimates of power factor as a function
of both motor loading and efficiency
level. In the LCC spreadsheet, DOE
estimated reactive power for each motor
analyzed. DOE then used the data
provided by EEI to estimate a reactive
power cost associated with the reactive
power. It included this cost in both the
LCC analysis and in the national impact
analysis.
7. Energy Prices
DOE developed nationally
representative distributions of
electricity prices for different customer
categories (industrial, commercial, and
residential) from 2007 EIA form 861
data. DOE estimates that marginal
energy prices for electric motors are
close to average prices, which vary by
customer type and utility. The average
prices (in 2008$) for each sector are 6.4
cents for the industrial and agricultural
sectors, 8.8 cents for the commercial
sector, and 10.1 cents for the residential
sector. DOE also estimated an average
reactive power charge of $0.47 per
kilovolt-amps reactive (kVAr) per month
using data provided by EEI for those
customers that are subject to a reactive
power charge.
8. Energy Price Trend
DOE used recent price forecasts by
EIA to estimate future trends in
electricity prices in each sector. To
arrive at prices in future years through
2030, DOE multiplied the average prices
described in the preceding section by
the forecast of annual average price
changes in EIA’s AEO 2009. To estimate
the trend after 2030, DOE followed past
guidelines provided to the Federal
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61439
Energy Management Program (FEMP) by
EIA and used the average rate of change
from 2020 to 2030 for electricity prices.
DOE calculated LCC and PBP using
three separate projections from AEO
2009: Reference, Low Price Case, and
High Price Case. These three cases
reflect the uncertainty of energy prices
in the forecast period. For the LCC
results presented in this NOPR, DOE
used only the energy price forecasts
from the Reference case.
DOE received several comments from
interested parties regarding its
electricity price projection. At the
preliminary analysis public meeting,
Earthjustice and NEEA commented that
DOE should monetize greenhouse gas
emissions reductions benefits, possibly
by including the cost of carbon
regulation in its forecasted price of
electricity. Interested parties also noted
that DOE should avoid double counting
and need only account for the monetary
value of emissions reductions or the
potential impact on electricity prices
and should not count both impacts at
the same time. Earthjustice commented
that the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) had performed an
analysis of Lieberman-Warner cap and
trade legislation and that DOE could use
this forecast to describe electricity
prices with carbon caps (Earthjustice,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 249–54).
DOE responds to these comments
primarily in the environmental analysis
where DOE provides estimates of the
potential monetary value of greenhouse
gas emissions reductions. DOE also
provides a sensitivity analysis in both
the LCC and the national impact
analysis that includes an electricity
price trend estimated by EIA for the case
of cap and trade emissions control
regulation. Details on the sensitivity
analyses performed by DOE for the LCC
are provided in chapter 8 of the TSD,
while the sensitivity analyses for the
national impact analysis are detailed in
TSD chapter 10.
9. Maintenance and Repair Costs
Small electric motors are not usually
repaired, because they often outlast the
equipment wherein they are a
component. DOE found no evidence
that repair or maintenance costs would
increase with higher motor energy
efficiency. In response to the
preliminary analysis, no interested
parties provided any comments or data
indicating that maintenance or repair
costs are likely to change with motor
efficiency. Thus, DOE did not include
changes in repair and maintenance costs
for motors that are more efficient than
baseline products.
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10. Equipment Lifetime
In the preliminary analysis, DOE used
the information it gathered for the
determination analysis to estimate the
motor lifetime, which DOE defined as
the age when the equipment containing
the motor is retired from service. Based
on this information, DOE used lifetime
distributions with a mean lifetime of 7
years for capacitor-start motors and 9
years for polyphase motors.
In response to the preliminary
analysis, DOE received comments
indicating that motor lifetimes should
be dependent on the annual hours of
operation. The NEEA and Northwest
Power and Conservation Council
requested that DOE further justify the
relatively short motor lifetimes used in
its analysis and take into account the
inverse relationship between operating
hours and lifetime (NEEA and NPCC,
No. 9 at p. 5). In response to the
rulemaking framework meeting, NEMA
stated that motor lifetimes depend on
the annual hours of use in addition to
the variances of motor loading for
various applications (NEMA, No. 5.1 at
p. 7). DOE agrees that motor lifetime
and annual hours of operation should be
inversely related and the NOPR analysis
has modified the lifetime distribution to
account for the effect of annual hours of
operation. DOE did not account for the
impact of motor loading variance on
motor lifetimes because doing so would
likely result in an overly complicated
consumer economic analysis model
without changing the overall analytical
results. The details of how DOE
estimated the dependence of motor
lifetime on annual operating hours are
provided in chapter 8 of the TSD.
11. Discount Rate
The discount rate is the rate at which
future expenditures are discounted to
estimate their present value. DOE used
the classic economic definition that
discount rates are equal to the cost of
capital. The cost of capital is a
combination of debt interest rates and
the cost of equity capital to the affected
firms and industries. For each end-use
sector, DOE developed a distribution of
discount rates from which the Monte
Carlo simulations sample.
For the industrial and commercial
sectors, DOE assembled data on debt
interest rates and the cost of equity
capital for representative firms that use
small electric motors. DOE determined
a distribution of the weighted-average
cost of capital for each class of potential
owners using data from the Damodaran
online investment survey.16 The
16 The survey is available at https://
pages.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar.
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discount rate distribution for each
product class DOE analyzed in the LCC
analysis is a weighted sample that
combines estimated ownership
percentages with their respective
discount rates. DOE used the same
distribution of discount rates for the
industrial and agricultural sectors. The
average discount rates in DOE’s
analysis, weighted by the shares of each
rate value in the sectoral distributions,
are 5.86 percent for commercial end
users and 5.92 percent for industrial and
agricultural end users.
For the residential sector, DOE
assembled a distribution of interest or
return rates on various equity
investments and debt types from a
variety of financial sources, including
the Federal Reserve Board’s ‘‘Survey of
Consumer Finances’’ (SCF) in 1989,
1992, 1995, 1998, 2001, and 2004. DOE
assigned weights in the distribution
based on the shares of each financial
instrument in household financial
holdings according to SCF data. The
weighted-average discount rate for
residential product owners is 5.5
percent.
In response to the preliminary
analysis, DOE did not receive any
comments regarding consumer discount
rates.
12. Standard Effective Date
The effective date is the future date
when a new standard becomes
operative. Under both the report to
Congress and the November 6, 2006
Consent Decree entered for the
consolidated cases of New York v.
Bodman, No. 05 Civ. 7807 (S.D.N.Y.
filed Sept. 7, 2005) and Natural
Resources Defense Council v. Bodman,
No. 05 Civ. 7808 (S.D.N.Y. filed Sept. 7,
2005), DOE is required to publish a final
rule addressing energy conservation
standards for small electric motors no
later than February 28, 2010. According
to 42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3), ‘‘(3) Any
standard prescribed under paragraph (2)
shall apply to small electric motors
manufactured 60 months after the date
such rule is published * * *’’
Therefore, the effective date of any new
energy conservation standards for these
products will be February 2015. DOE
calculated the LCC for all end users as
if each one would purchase a new piece
of equipment in the year the standard
takes effect.
G. National Impact Analysis—National
Energy Savings and Net Present Value
Analysis
DOE’s NIA assesses the national
energy savings (NES) and the national
net present value (NPV) of total
customer costs and savings that would
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be expected to result from new
standards at specific efficiency levels.
To make the analysis more accessible
and transparent to all interested parties,
DOE used an MS Excel spreadsheet
model to calculate the NES and NPV
from new standards. MS Excel is the
most widely used spreadsheet
calculation tool in the United States and
there is general familiarity with its basic
features. Thus, DOE’s use of MS Excel
as the basis for the spreadsheet models
provides interested parties with access
to the models within a familiar context.
In addition, the TSD and other
documentation that DOE provides
during the rulemaking help explain the
models and how to use them, and
interested parties can review DOE’s
analyses by changing various input
quantities within the spreadsheet.
DOE uses the NIA spreadsheets to
calculate NES and NPV based on the
annual energy consumption and total
installed cost data employed in the LCC
analysis. DOE forecasts the energy
savings, energy cost savings, equipment
costs, and NPV for each product class
from 2015 through 2045. The forecasts
provide annual and cumulative values
for all four output parameters. DOE also
examines impact sensitivities by
analyzing various scenarios.
DOE develops a base-case forecast for
each small electric motor product class
that characterizes energy use and
customer costs (purchase and operation)
in the absence of new energy
conservation standards. To evaluate the
impacts of such standards, DOE
compares the base-case projection with
projections characterizing the market if
DOE promulgated new standards at
specific efficiency levels (i.e., the
standards case). In characterizing the
base and standards cases, DOE
considers the mix of efficiencies sold in
the absence of any new standards, and
how that mix might change over time.
DOE did not find evidence of
historical trends toward increasing
market share for more efficient motors
within the realm of covered products in
this rulemaking. DOE therefore assumed
that, in the base case, the market share
of different levels of efficiency would
remain fixed at current values over the
analysis period. For its forecast of
standards-case efficiencies, DOE used a
‘‘roll-up’’ scenario. In this approach,
product energy efficiencies in the base
case that do not meet the standard level
under consideration would ‘‘roll up’’ to
meet the new standard level. The
market share of energy efficiencies that
exceed the standard level under
consideration would be the same in the
standards case as in the base case.
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DOE analyzed the relationship
between cost and efficiency for three
representative product classes (1 hp
polyphase, 3⁄4 hp CSCR, and 1⁄2 hp
CSIR). In order to calculate the national
energy savings and NPV of each TSL,
DOE scaled both the energy
consumption and equipment price to all
other product classes. The national
energy savings and NPV are developed
from shipment-weighted sums of the
energy use and equipment price for each
product class. See section IV.C.6 for a
discussion of the scaling of energy
consumption. In order to scale prices,
DOE examined motor catalog data from
10 motor manufacturers, available on
the Internet. DOE developed an average
price for motors in each product class,
examined the price trend within each
motor category (polyphase, CSCR, or
CSIR) and number of poles, and
developed a scaling relation to enable
forecasts of price changes related to
increasing efficiency. The price scaling
model is discussed in chapter 8 of the
accompanying TSD.
In the preliminary analysis, DOE used
data submitted by NEMA for the
determination analysis to develop
shipments in each product class. It also
determined the national impacts of each
motor category by multiplying the
results for a single product class by the
shipments of the category as a whole.
For the analysis presented in this NOPR,
DOE modified these shipment estimates
based on the distribution of currently
available motor models to develop
updated estimates for shipments in each
product class. DOE then used these
estimated 2008 shipments for each
product class to develop NES and NPV
estimates that better reflect the
distribution of motor shipments among
motor categories, output powers and
speeds. NEMA criticized DOE’s scaling
approach in the preliminary analysis as
confusing energy savings and net
present value results from a particular
product class with the results for the
full distribution of motor sizes and
speeds (NEMA, No. 13 at p. 20). DOE
agrees with this comment, and replaced
its preliminary analysis with a more
comprehensive accounting.
During the preliminary analysis, DOE
received requests from interested parties
to provide an estimate of size of the
potential savings from the standard
relative to the amount of energy used by
all small electric motors, including
those not covered under the present
rulemaking (ACEEE, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 234; Joint
Comment, No. 12 at p. 2). While such
detailed estimates are beyond the scope
of this rulemaking, DOE provides a
rough estimate of the energy use of
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small electric motors not covered in this
rulemaking in chapter 10 of the TSD.
1. Shipments
Product shipment forecasts are an
important component of any estimate of
the future impact of a standard. DOE
determined forecasts of small motor
shipments for the base case and
standards cases using the NES
spreadsheet. The shipments portion of
the spreadsheet forecasts polyphase and
capacitor-start motor shipments from
2015 to 2045. DOE developed shipments
forecasts by accounting for (1) the
combined effects of equipment price,
operating cost, and business income
level; and (2) different market segments.
Additional details on the shipments
forecasts are in chapter 9 of the TSD.
DOE developed four shipment
scenarios, modeling a range of possible
growth for the market of covered small
motors. For three of these scenarios,
DOE assumed that shipments of covered
small electric motors would be driven
by growth in the sectors into which the
motors are sold (industrial, commercial,
and residential). DOE’s reference case is
based on the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act scenario released as a
supplement to AEO 2009. DOE also
modeled shipments driven by the High
Growth and Low Growth scenarios in
the AEO 2009 release. These three AEO
scenarios are updated versions of the
scenarios analyzed in the preliminary
analysis. For the NOPR analysis, DOE
also analyzed a ‘‘falling market share’’
scenario. At the January 30, 2009, public
meeting (Public Meeting Transcript, No.
8.5 at pp 268–70) and during
manufacturer interviews (see section
IV.I), manufacturers predicted that the
market share for motors covered by this
rule will fall over time as customers
increase their use of other motor
technologies. The ‘‘falling market share’’
scenario reflects this assessment by
modeling a scenario in which motor
shipments are fixed at their 2008 levels,
regardless of economic growth between
2008 and 2015 or during the analysis
period. DOE’s examination of
equipment product catalogues and
economic census data did not support a
conclusion of falling market shares for
general purpose motors in the
application categories in DOE’s analysis.
DOE therefore provided the ‘‘falling
market share’’ scenario as a sensitivity
analysis rather than incorporating it into
the reference case analysis. DOE seeks
further information regarding alternative
small motor technologies and how they
could potentially affect the projected
shipments. Chapters 9 and 10 of the
TSD, along with the appendices to
chapter 10, discuss the scenarios in
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greater detail and provide NES and NPV
results calculated within each scenario
to illustrate the effect of this scenario
choice.
2. Elasticity Scenarios
DOE modeled three elasticity
scenarios that estimate the change in
motor shipments in response to
increasing customer equipment prices: a
scenario with no elasticity, a scenario
with an elasticity of ¥0.25, and a
scenario with an elasticity of ¥0.50. In
the preliminary analysis, DOE chose the
inelastic scenario as its reference case.
At the January 30, 2009, public meeting,
DOE asked for input regarding the
likelihood of customers moving from
covered motors to other motor
categories if standards cause prices of
the former to increase. In particular, in
its preliminary analysis DOE stated that
if the price of a baseline motor were to
increase by more than 18 percent, some
consumers may switch to enclosed
motors. DOE believed the 18 percent
increase was representative of the
difference in price seen between an
open motor and an enclosed motor with
the same ratings. However, NEMA
stated that 18 percent, which was
derived from the difference in catalog
prices, may not include the additional
installation costs if the enclosed motor
is a different size. NEMA also stated that
the difference in cooling requirements
would need to be considered. Finally,
NEMA said that they were unaware of
a study of the costs of replacing an open
motor with an enclosed motor. (NEMA,
No. 13 at p. 20) During manufacturer
interviews, manufacturers commented
that an increased purchase cost of
covered motors would increase the rate
of consumers switching to other motor
technologies, for example, electronically
commutated motors (ECMs). However,
interested parties did not provide
quantitative data which DOE could use
to estimate the elasticity of small motor
shipments. DOE’s reference case for the
NOPR analysis retains the ‘‘no
elasticity’’ scenario. Although there is
the potential for consumers to switch to
other products, DOE believes that
consumers are not likely to do so, even
as prices for covered motors increase.
Motor technologies such as ECMs are of
a different physical size and require the
use of an electronic controller to convert
AC power into DC power. Whereas the
ECM motor is itself typically larger than
a capacitor start motor, the AC to DC
control must also be physically attached
to the motor or remotely located. Thus,
consumers wishing to replace a motor
covered by this rulemaking with an
ECM motor will have additional costs
associated with redesigning their
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application due to the physical size
and/or electrical compatibility. Given
these complexities, replacing a motor
covered by this rule with an ECM motor
would require significant installer
knowledge and higher installation costs.
Furthermore, potential substitution
motor technologies such as ECMs are
not currently available in distribution in
the full range of speeds, service factors,
and frame sizes to adequately service
the replacement market. DOE seeks
input and data regarding how the small
motor market will respond to the
proposed standards, particularly
regarding elasticity between covered
motors and other motor technologies,
such as ECMs.
DOE notes that capacitor-start motors
form a single market in which
customers may choose a CSIR or CSCR
motor to best meet their requirements.
DOE developed a cross-elasticity model
to incorporate the market dynamics of
CSIR and CSCR motors within this
single market. This CSIR/CSCR market
share cross-elasticity is independent of
the elasticity of the market as a whole,
discussed above, which could change
the size of the capacitor-start market.
DOE calibrated its reference CSIR/CSCR
market share model using its estimates
of the current market share for CSCR
and CSIR motors within each matched
pair of product classes sharing a motor
power and number of poles. DOE
recognizes that there are significant
uncertainties in its cross-elasticity
model. The model utilizes DOE’s
shipments estimates in each capacitorstart product class, which are based in
part on the number of models currently
available, in the absence of direct
shipments data from motor
manufacturers. In addition, the model
relies on DOE’s scaling relations for
motor losses and motor prices described
earlier in this NOPR and detailed in the
TSD. DOE provides two alternate model
scenarios (‘‘High CSCR’’ and ‘‘Low
CSCR’’ scenarios), described by sets of
cross-elasticity model parameters,
which it believes bracket the range of
possible market share responses to
standards. DOE modeled two cases for
the timescale of market share response
to standards. One case assumed that the
market would take 10 years to adjust to
the market shares predicted, following
the implementation of standards in
2015, while the other assumed that the
market shares would adjust prior to the
effective date of the standards in 2015.
DOE treats these two cases as its
reference cases. DOE analyzed several
alternate scenarios as sensitivities,
including the ‘‘High CSCR’’ and ‘‘Low
CSCR’’ model parameters and a case
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which treats the market share shift in
space-constrained and non-spaceconstrained applications separately.
Further details regarding this model and
sensitivities are in TSD chapter 10. DOE
recognizes that there are significant
uncertainties in the inputs to its crosselasticity model, and the resulting
parameters of the model, and welcomes
comments on each of these inputs as
well as on the model itself. DOE also
welcomes comments regarding the
resulting forecast of the impact of
standards on motor shipments and
product class market shares.
H. Consumer Sub-Group Analysis
In analyzing the potential impact of
new or amended standards on
customers, DOE evaluates the impact on
identifiable groups of customers (i.e.,
subgroups), such as small businesses,
that may not be equally affected by a
national standard level. In this
rulemaking, this analysis examined the
economic impacts on different groups of
customers by estimating the average
change in LCC and by calculating the
fraction of customers that would benefit.
DOE analyzed the potential effect of
standards for small businesses and
customers with space-constrained
applications, two consumer sub-groups
of interest identified by DOE. Interested
parties also supported these selections.
For small businesses, DOE analyzed the
potential impacts of standards by
conducting the analysis with different
discount rates, as small businesses do
not have the same access to capital as
larger businesses. DOE estimated that
for businesses purchasing small motors,
small companies have an average
discount rate which is 4.2 percent
higher than the industry average. DOE
assumed that customers with spaceconstrained applications constitute 20
percent of all customers, and are
distributed across all applications.
More details on the subgroup analysis
and the results can be found in Chapter
11 of the TSD accompanying this notice.
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
DOE performed an MIA to estimate
the financial impact of energy
conservation standards on small electric
motor manufacturers, and to calculate
the impact of such standards on
domestic manufacturing employment
and capacity. The MIA has both
quantitative and qualitative aspects. The
quantitative part of the MIA primarily
relies on the GRIM, an industry-cashflow model customized for this
rulemaking. The GRIM inputs are data
on the industry cost structure,
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shipments, and revenues. The key
output is the INPV. For this rulemaking,
the impact on INPV is reported
separately for polyphase and singlephase motors. Due to the market
interaction between CSIR and CSCR, all
single-phase motor results are presented
together. Different sets of assumptions
(scenarios) will produce different
results. The qualitative part of the MIA
addresses factors such as motor
characteristics, characteristics of
particular firms, market trends, and an
assessment of the impacts of standards
on manufacturer subgroups. The
complete MIA is outlined in chapter 12
of the TSD.
DOE conducted the MIA in three
phases. Phase 1, Industry Profile,
consisted of preparing an industry
characterization. Phase 2, Industry Cash
Flow, focused on the industry as a
whole. In this phase, DOE used the
GRIM to prepare an industry cash-flow
analysis. DOE used publicly available
information developed in Phase 1 to
adapt the GRIM structure to analyze
small electric motors energy
conservation standards. In Phase 3,
Subgroup Impact Analysis, DOE
interviewed manufacturers representing
the majority of domestic small electric
motors sales. During these interviews,
DOE discussed engineering,
manufacturing, procurement, and
financial topics specific to each
company, and also obtained each
manufacturer’s view of the industry as
a whole. The interviews provided
valuable information DOE used to help
evaluate the impacts of a new standard
on manufacturer cash flows,
manufacturing capacities, and
employment levels.
2. Phase 1, Industry Profile
For phase 1 of the MIA, DOE prepared
a profile of the small electric motors
industry based on the market and
technology assessment prepared for this
rulemaking. Before initiating the
detailed impact studies, DOE collected
information on the market
characteristics of the small electric
motors industry. This industry profile
includes further detail on the overall
market, motor characteristics, estimated
manufacturer market shares, and the
trends in the number of firms in the
small electric motors industry.
The industry profile included a topdown cost analysis of the small electric
motors manufacturers that DOE used to
derive preliminary financial inputs for
the GRIM (e.g., revenues; material,
labor, overhead, depreciation costs;
selling, general, and administration
expenses (SG&A); and research and
development (R&D) expenses). DOE also
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used public information to further
calibrate its initial characterization of
the industry, including U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) 10–K
reports, Hoovers company financial
reports, and U.S. Census data.
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3. Phase 2, Industry Cash-Flow Analysis
Phase 2 of the MIA focused on the
financial impacts of potential energy
conservation standards on the industry
as a whole. In Phase 2, DOE used the
GRIM to perform a preliminary industry
cash-flow analysis to calculate the
financial impacts of energy conservation
standards on manufacturers. In
performing this analysis, DOE used the
financial values determined in Phase 1
and the shipment scenarios used in the
NIA analysis.
4. Phase 3, Sub-Group Impact Analysis
In Phase 3, DOE conducts interviews
with manufacturers, refines its
preliminary cash flow analysis, and uses
its initial market characterization to
evaluate the how groups of
manufacturers could be differentially
impacted. During the course of the MIA,
DOE interviewed manufacturers
representing the majority of domestic
small electric motors sales. Many of
these same companies also participated
in interviews for the engineering
analysis. The MIA interviews broadened
the discussion from primarily
technology-related issues to include
business-related topics. One key
objective for DOE was to obtain
feedback from the industry on the
assumptions used in the GRIM and to
isolate key issues and concerns. See
section IV.I.6 for a description of the key
issues raised by manufacturers during
interviews.
Using average cost assumptions to
develop an industry cash-flow estimate
does not adequately assess differential
impacts among manufacturer subgroups.
For example, small manufacturers,
niche players, or manufacturers
exhibiting a cost structure that greatly
differs from the industry average could
be more negatively affected by new
energy conservation standards than
larger manufacturers. DOE established
two subgroups for the MIA
corresponding to large and small
business manufacturers of small electric
motors. Small electric motor
manufacturing is classified under the
North American Industry Classification
System (NAICS) code 335312 (Motor
and Generator Manufacturing). In order
to be considered a small business under
NAICS 335312, small businesses are
defined by the Small Business
Administration (SBA) as manufacturing
enterprises with 1,000 or fewer
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employees. DOE attempted to interview
companies from each subgroup,
including subsidiaries, independent
firms, and public and private
corporations to develop an
understanding of how manufacturer
impacts vary by TSL.
5. Government Regulatory Impact Model
Analysis
The GRIM analysis is a standard
annual cash-flow analysis that
incorporates MSPs, manufacturing
production costs, shipments, and
industry financial information as inputs.
The analysis models changes in costs,
distribution of shipments, investments,
and associated margins that would
result from new energy conservation
standards. The GRIM spreadsheet uses a
number of inputs to arrive at a series of
annual cash flows, beginning with the
base year of the analysis (2010) and
continuing to 2044. DOE calculated
INPVs by summing the stream of annual
discounted cash flows during this
period.
DOE used the GRIM to calculate cash
flows using standard accounting
principles and to compare changes in
INPV between a base case and various
TSLs (the standards case). The
difference in INPV between the base
case and a standards case represents the
financial impact of energy conservation
standards on manufacturers. DOE
collected this information from a
number of sources, including publicly
available data and interviews with
manufacturers. The GRIM results are
shown in Table V.18 through Table
V.21. Additional details about the GRIM
can be found in chapter 12 of the TSD.
6. Manufacturer Interviews
During interviews with
manufacturers, manufacturers discussed
several key issues of concern if new
regulations were imposed. The most
significant of these issues are outlined
below.
Maintaining Product Availability and
Features—Manufacturers expressed
concern about the impact on typical
motor characteristics that may result
after the adoption of new energy
conservation standards. Specifically,
manufacturers were concerned that
standards-compliant small electric
motors might require larger housing
diameters and shaft lengths.
Manufacturers were also greatly
concerned that larger dimensions could
eliminate the ability to retrofit newer,
potentially larger motors into existing
applications. However, manufacturers
are concerned that their sales could be
impacted if larger motors required endusers to modify their existing
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applications. If existing motor sizes
were increased, end users could choose
to use other horsepower motors or a
different motor category that is not
covered by today’s rulemaking rather
than modify the application to allow
installation of the standards-compliant
small electric motor. Manufacturers
were also concerned that energy
conservation standards could
consolidate horsepower ratings by
eliminating some of today’s standard
ratings from the market.
Significant Capital Conversion
Costs—Manufacturers expressed
concern over the potentially large
conversion costs required to
manufacturer standards-compliant small
electric motors. Large manufacturers
that produce the vast majority of motors
covered by this rulemaking typically
also manufacturer many other categories
of motors. The majority of
manufacturers interviewed indicated
that the proportion of covered small
electric motors represents a small share
of the manufacturer’s overall business.
The increased stringency at each
standard level will require
manufacturers to increase the amount of
capital conversion costs, potentially
necessitating an investment in new
lamination dies, winding tooling, testing
equipment, and even re-allotting factory
floor space. According to the majority of
manufacturers, if the standard forces a
substantial increase in motor
dimensions or redesign costs,
manufacturers could simply exit the
small electric motors market rather than
develop standards-compliant motors.
Manufacturers indicated that the
resources for manufacturing standardcompliant motors would be taken away
from other motor technologies that
could potentially provide greater energy
savings, such as variable speed motors.
Substitutes—Manufacturers expressed
concerns that standard-compliant motor
prices would be greater due to more
costly components and to compensate
the company for the required capital
investment. Manufacturers stated that
because the small electric motor market
is highly price sensitive, higher selling
prices could push customers towards
other technologies (e.g., ECMs).
Manufacturers believed that the
economics for customers with
equipment that use motors sparingly
could not justify using the moreefficient, standards-compliant motors
covered by this rulemaking because the
energy savings would not compensate
for the higher first costs of these motors.
Narrow Focus of the Rulemaking—
Manufacturers were concerned that the
rulemaking only applies to a small
number of motors. Some manufacturers
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specifically referenced the lack of
availability and unproven nature of
exotic steels like Hiperco as variables
that could reduce energy use. Finally,
all interviewed manufacturers were
concerned that the extremely higher
prices of motors that use these metals
could force significant conversion costs
that would not be recouped if higher
price points led to a decline in sales.
Manufacturers reported that most likely
they would exit the market if exotic
steels were required to meet the energy
conservation standard.
Enforcement of Standards—
Manufacturers expressed concern about
the feasibility of enforcing an energy
conservation standard, particularly for
motors embedded in other equipment.
This concern was a particular concern
for domestic manufacturers that
indicated foreign companies could
potentially import non-compliant
motors as a component in other nonregulated equipment and put U.S.
manufacturers at a competitive
disadvantage.
Additional shipment scenarios
analyzed in the NIA include any
combination of the scenarios listed in
Table IV.12. While the GRIM is able to
model any of the possible combinations,
to calculate the likely INPV impacts in
the MIA DOE used the reference
scenario for the MIA. This scenario uses
baseline economic growth, no shipment
elasticity, and baseline market share
between CSIR and CSCR motors. To see
a complete set of results for all
scenarios, see Chapter 12 of the TSD.
For more information on the different
possible shipment scenarios analyzed in
the NIA, see chapter 10 of the TSD.
In the shipments analysis, DOE also
estimated the distribution of efficiencies
in the base case for small electric motors
(chapter 9 of the TSD). Table IV.13
through Table IV.15 show the
distribution of efficiencies in the base
case for the polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR
representative units, respectively.
7. Government Regulatory Impact Model
Key Inputs and Scenarios
a. Base-Case Shipments Forecast
EP24NO09.012
The GRIM estimates manufacturer
revenues based on shipment forecasts
and the distribution by product class
and efficiency. Changes in the efficiency
mix at each standard level are a key
driver of manufacturer finances. For this
analysis, the GRIM used the NIA
shipments forecasts from 2010 to 2044.
The NIA shipments forecast contains
several scenarios that account for
various economic conditions, motor
price elasticity, and shipment
interaction between single-phase
motors. For all scenarios, the NIA
shipments forecast maintains total
industry-wide shipments. Total
shipments forecasted by the NIA for the
base case in 2015 are shown in Table
IV.11.
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indicated they or some of their
competitors could exit the small electric
motor market if energy conservation
standards were too stringent because
this rulemaking applies to a small
percentage of their total sales.
Uses of Alternative Metals—All
interviewed manufacturers expressed
concerned about the use of copper and
exotic steels in redesigning their motors.
According to manufacturers, copper
rotor designs would require new
specialized tooling that manufacturers
currently do not employ. Some
manufacturers reported the need for
significant changes to their plants if
copper rotors are required to meet
standards, including the use of special
smelting and casting operations. Also,
manufacturers indicated that the use of
copper in rotors would require a
significant R&D effort because of their
lack of experience with the materials
and determining how to optimize
manufacturing these types of rotors in
high volumes. Manufacturers
b. Standards-Case Shipments Forecast
For each standards case, DOE
assumed that shipments at efficiencies
below the projected standard levels
would roll up to those efficiency levels
in response to an energy conservation
standard. This scenario assumes that
demand for high-efficiency motors is a
function of its price without regard to
the standard level. In the standards-case
scenarios used to calculate INPV,
shipments for polyphase and singlephase motors are independent of each
other. However, for single-phase motors,
the NIA shipments forecast modeled an
interaction between shipments of CSIR
and CSCR motors at each TSL. This
interaction is also captured in the MIA
in the standards-case shipments. For
further information on the interaction of
CSIR and CSCR motors shipments, see
chapter 10 of the TSD.
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c. Manufacturing Production Costs
Manufacturer production costs
include all direct manufacturing costs
(i.e., labor, material and overhead). DOE
derived manufacturing production costs
by using the MSPs found in the
engineering analysis. In the MIA, DOE
used the weighted average MSPs that
combined prices for space constrained
and non-spaced constrained motor
designs. Further discussion of how DOE
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calculated projected MSPs is found in
chapter 5 of the TSD. To determine
manufacturer production costs from
MSP, DOE divided MSPs by the
manufacturer markup. The
manufacturer markup is a multiplier
that converts the manufacturer
production costs to MSPs. The
manufacturer markup covers all nonproduction costs (i.e., selling, general,
and administrative expenses, shipping,
and research and development) and
profit. The manufacturer markup was
calculated using the revenues and cost
of goods sold from the annual reports of
publicly-traded companies. For
additional information on DOE’s scaling
of MSPs, see section IV.G of today’s
notice.
d. Manufacturing Markup Scenarios
To understand how baseline and more
efficient motors are differentiated, DOE
reviewed manufacturer catalogs and
information gathered by manufacturers.
In the base case, DOE used the MSPs
from the engineering analysis. For the
MIA, DOE considered different
manufacturer markup scenarios for
small electric motors. Markup scenarios
were used to provide bounds to the
range of expected small electric motor
prices following new energy
conservation standards. DOE learned
from interviews that manufacturers
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typically only offer one line for each
product class and that the efficiency
levels offered fall near the baseline
efficiency level. DOE also learned that
manufacturers maintain a constant
markup among different product
classes. In the base case, DOE applied
the same standard manufacturer markup
of 1.45 for all product classes.
For the standards case, DOE
considered two markup scenarios: (1)
The preservation of return on invested
capital scenario, and (2) the
preservation of operating profit
scenario.
Return on invested capital is defined
as net operating profit after taxes
(NOPAT) divided by the total invested
capital. The total invested capital
includes fixed assets and working
capital, or net plant, property, and
equipment plus working capital. In the
preservation of return on invested
capital scenario, the markups are set so
that the return on invested capital the
year after the effective date of the energy
conservation standards is the same as in
the base case. This scenario models the
situation in which manufacturers
maintain a similar level of profitability
from the investments required by
amended energy conservation standards
as they do from their current business
operations. Under this scenario, after
standards, manufacturers have higher
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net operating profits but also greater
working capital and investment
requirements. This scenario represents
the high bound to profitability following
standards.
The implicit assumption behind the
‘‘preservation-of-operating profit’’
scenario is that the industry can only
maintain its base-case operating profit
(earnings before interest and taxes) in
the year after implementation of the
standard. The industry impacts occur in
this scenario when manufacturers make
the required capital and equipment
conversion costs in order to
manufacturer more expensive motors,
but the operating profit does not change
from current conditions. DOE
implemented this markup scenario in
the GRIM by setting the manufacturer
markups at each TSL to yield
approximately the same operating profit
in both the base case and the standards
case in the year after standards take
effect.
e. Equipment and Capital Conversion
Costs
Energy conservation standards
typically cause manufacturers to incur
one-time conversion costs to bring their
production facilities and designs into
compliance with the energy
conservation standard. For the purpose
of the MIA, DOE classified these
conversion costs into two major groups:
(1) Equipment conversion costs, and (2)
capital conversion costs. Equipment
conversion costs are one-time
investments in research, development,
testing, and marketing, focused on
making motor designs comply with the
new energy conservation standard.
Capital conversion costs are one-time
investments in property, plant, and
equipment to adapt or change existing
production facilities so that new motor
designs can be fabricated and
assembled.
DOE assessed the equipment
conversion costs manufacturers would
be required to make at each TSL. DOE
considered a number of manufacturer
responses for small electric motors at
each TSL. In order to estimate the
required equipment conversion costs,
DOE used the technology options in its
engineering analysis to estimate the
engineering and product development
resources needed at each TSL.
Specifically, DOE estimated the
equipment conversion costs by the effort
required to redesign existing motors as
the stack length increases and changes
in material to copper for rotors and
exotic steels for laminations are
required. Additionally, DOE maintained
the engineering analysis assumption
that a portion of manufactured motors
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would have space constraints, requiring
higher product conversion costs in
comparison to non-space constrained
motors. To take space constrained
designs into account in the equipment
conversion costs, at each TSL DOE used
a weighted average of its estimate of the
product development costs to develop
both space constrained and non-space
constrained motors. DOE also used the
information provided by manufacturers
and industry experts to validate its
estimates. However, because DOE
received limited feedback from
manufacturers about the required
capital and equipment conversion costs,
DOE seeks additional comment from
interested parties on the estimated
equipment conversion costs.
DOE also evaluated the level of
capital conversion costs manufacturers
would incur to comply with energy
conservation standards. DOE used the
manufacturer interviews to gather data
on the level of capital investment
required at each TSL. Manufacturers
explained how different TSLs affected
their ability to use existing plants,
tooling, and equipment. DOE estimated
the tooling and capital that would be
necessary to achieve subsequent
efficiency levels given the majority of
current shipments are at the baseline
efficiency. Additionally, DOE
maintained the assumption from the
engineering analysis that a portion of
manufactured motors would have space
constraints. At each TSL, DOE estimated
the total capital conversion costs that
would be required to manufacturer
exclusively space constrained and nonspace constrained motors. DOE
weighted these two estimates by the
percentage of motors that would be
space constrained and non-spaced
constrained to calculate the estimate of
the industry-wide capital conversion
costs at each TSL. DOE gathered
information from industry experts to
validate its assumptions for capital
conversion costs. However, DOE
received limited input from
manufacturers regarding the required
capital conversion costs to reach the
max-tech efficiency levels that require
alternative steel such as Hiperco.
Consequently, DOE seeks additional
comment from interested parties on its
assumptions and estimates for the
capital conversion costs.
The investment figures used in the
GRIM can be found in section V.B.2.a of
today’s notice. For additional
information on the estimated equipment
conversion and capital conversion costs
and assumptions, see chapter 12 of the
TSD.
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J. Employment Impact Analysis
Employment impacts are among the
factors DOE considers in selecting a
proposed standard. Employment
impacts are the total impact on
employment in the national economy,
including the sector that manufactures
the equipment being regulated. Thus,
DOE estimated both the direct impact of
standards on employment (i.e., any
changes in the number of employees for
small motors manufacturers, their
suppliers, and related service firms),
and the indirect employment impact of
standards (i.e., changes in employment
by energy suppliers and by other sectors
of the economy). The MIA addresses
only the employment impacts on
manufacturers of the product being
regulated.
Indirect employment impacts from
standards are the net jobs created or
eliminated in the national economy,
other than in the manufacturing sector
being regulated, as a consequence of (1)
reduced spending by end users on
energy, (2) reduced spending on new
energy supply by the utility industry, (3)
increased spending on the purchase
price of new small motors, and (4) the
effects of those three factors throughout
the economy. DOE expects the net
monetary savings from standards to be
redirected to other forms of economic
activity. DOE also expects these shifts in
spending and economic activity to affect
the demand for labor, but there is no
standard method for estimating these
effects.
One method for assessing the possible
effects on the demand for labor of such
shifts in economic activity is to compare
sectoral employment statistics
developed by the Labor Department’s
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). BLS
regularly publishes its estimates of the
number of jobs per million dollars of
economic activity in different sectors of
the economy, as well as the jobs created
elsewhere in the economy by this same
economic activity. Data from BLS
indicate that expenditures in the utility
sector generally create fewer jobs (both
directly and indirectly) than
expenditures in other sectors of the
economy. (See Bureau of Economic
Analysis, ‘‘Regional Multipliers: A User
Handbook for the Regional Input-Output
Modeling System (RIMS II),’’
Washington, DC., U.S. Department of
Commerce, 1992). Because reduced
consumer expenditures for energy likely
lead to increased expenditures in other
sectors of the economy, the general
effect of efficiency standards is to shift
economic activity from a less laborintensive sector (i.e., the utility sector)
to more labor-intensive sectors (e.g., the
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retail and manufacturing sectors). Thus,
based on BLS data alone, DOE believes
net national employment will increase
due to shifts in economic activity
resulting from the proposed small
motors standard.
To investigate the indirect
employment impacts, DOE used the
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
(PNNL)’s Impact of Sector Energy
Technologies (ImSET) model. PNNL
developed ImSET, a spreadsheet model
of the U.S. economy that focuses on 188
sectors most relevant to industrial,
commercial, and residential building
energy use, for DOE’s Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
ImSET is a special-purpose version of
the U.S. Benchmark National InputOutput (I–O) model, which has been
designed to estimate the national
employment and income effects of
energy saving technologies that are
deployed by DOE’s Office of Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy. The
ImSET software includes a computerbased I–O model with structural
coefficients to characterize economic
flows among 188 sectors. ImSET’s
national economic I–O structure is
based on the 1997 Benchmark InputOutput Data, which have been specially
aggregated to cover 188 sectors.
In response to the preliminary
analysis, DOE received two comments
regarding the employment analysis.
NEEA and NPCC recommended that
DOE consider a ‘‘2008 study’’ on the
employment impacts of energy
efficiency in California and attempt to
extrapolate them to the national scale
(NEEA and NPCC, No. 9 at p. 6). DOE
examined the study referred to in the
comment: ‘‘Energy Efficiency,
Innovation, and Job Creation in
California’’ by David Roland-Holst. DOE
concluded that one component of the
study that addresses indirect
employment impacts due to decreased
energy expenditures is similar to DOE’s
current approach. The second
component of the study hypothesizes
that ‘‘innovation’’ will create additional
employment impact and estimated that
this impact is approximately the same
size as the indirect impacts due to
decreased energy expenditures. But the
report notes that is forecast is highly
uncertain: ‘‘The overall process of
technological change is notoriously
difficult to forecast, and individual
innovation events virtually impossible,’’
(David Roland-Holst, ‘‘Energy
Efficiency, Innovation, and Job Creation
in California’’ at p. 81). Given the
acknowledged exploratory and
potentially speculative nature of
employment impacts due to innovation,
DOE does not include an estimate of
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innovation-induced employment
impacts in its analysis at this time.
Baldor and NEMA commented that
DOE needs to make sure that the ImSET
model properly includes pertinent
industries that use small electric
motors—i.e., OEM manufacturers
(Baldor, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
8.5 at 312–13; NEMA, No. 13 at p. 16).
DOE has confirmed that ImSET includes
the various OEM manufacturing sectors
in its analysis. Although commenters
expected OEM employment to be
adversely impacted, ImSET forecasts
increased employment by OEMs. ImSET
forecasts employment impacts based on
changes in expenditures made in a
particular sector. With the
implementation of energy conservation
standards, small electric motors become
more expensive and as the equipment is
marked up during OEM product
manufacture, the total revenues going to
OEMs increases. Because DOE assumes
that OEMs are able to pass the increased
cost of the motors to their customers,
these increased revenues going to the
OEM sector result in a forecast of
increased employment for OEMs.
For more details on the employment
impact analysis, see TSD chapter 14.
K. Utility Impact Analysis
The utility impact analysis estimates
the effects of reduced energy
consumption due to improved
appliance efficiency on the utility
industry. This utility analysis compares
forecast results for a case comparable to
the AEO2009 Reference Case and
forecasts for policy cases incorporating
each of the small motors trial standard
levels.
The utility impact analysis reports the
changes in installed capacity and
generation by plant type that result for
each trial standard level, as well as
changes in electricity sales to the
residential, commercial and industrial
sectors. The estimated impacts of the
standard are the difference between the
value forecasted by NEMS–BT and the
AEO 2009 Reference Case.
DOE also received a comment from
EEI noting that low motor power factors
can have adverse impacts on the utility
power distribution system (EEI, No. 14
at p. 2). DOE responded to this comment
by including an estimate of utility costs
as a function of changes in power factor
and motor losses with changing
standard level. These impacts include
costs and energy losses. The national
impact analysis estimates costs and
benefits of changing power factor and
reactive power. DOE’s model estimates
that the utility system losses due to
power factor effects are generally in the
range of 10 to 20 percent of total source
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energy consumption. The estimates of
the losses (or savings) from power factor
and reactive power effects are included
in the inputs to the utility impact
analysis.
Chapter 13 of the TSD accompanying
this notice presents details on the utility
impact analysis.
L. Environmental Analysis
DOE has prepared a draft
environmental assessment (EA)
pursuant to the National Environmental
Policy Act and the requirements of 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI) and 6316(a)
to determine the environmental impacts
of the proposed standards. DOE
estimated the reduction in power sector
emissions of CO2, NOX, and Hg using
the NEMS–BT model.
1. Power Sector Emissions
NEMS–BT is run similarly to the AEO
NEMS, except that small electric motor
energy use is reduced by the amount of
energy saved due to each TSL. The
inputs of national energy savings come
from the NIA spreadsheet model; the
output is the forecasted physical
emissions at each TSL. The net benefit
of the standard is the difference between
emissions estimated by NEMS–BT at
each TSL and the AEO Reference Case.
NEMS–BT tracks CO2 emissions using a
detailed module that provides results
with broad coverage of all sectors and
inclusion of interactive effects. For the
preliminary NOPR analysis, DOE used
AEO2008. For today’s NOPR, DOE used
the AEO2009 NEMS (stimulus version).
For the final rule, DOE intends to revise
the emissions analysis using the most
current AEO.
DOE has preliminarily determined
that SO2 emissions from affected
Electric Generating Units (EGUs) are
subject to nationwide and regional
emissions cap and trading programs that
create uncertainty about standard’s
impact on SO2 emissions. Title IV of the
Clean Air Act sets an annual emissions
cap on SO2 for all affected EGUs. SO2
emissions from 28 eastern States and the
District of Columbia (D.C.) are also
limited under the Clean Air Interstate
Rule (CAIR, published in the Federal
Register on May 12, 2005. 70 FR 25162
(May 12, 2005)), which creates an
allowance-based trading program that
will gradually replace the Title IV
program in those States and D.C. (The
recent legal history surrounding CAIR is
discussed below.) The attainment of the
emissions caps is flexible among EGUs
and is enforced through the use of
emissions allowances and tradable
permits. The standard could lead EGUs
to trade allowances and increase SO2
emissions that offset some or all SO2
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emissions reductions attributable to the
standard. DOE is not certain that there
will be reduced overall SO2 emissions
from the standards. The NEMS–BT
modeling system that DOE plans to use
to forecast emissions reductions
currently indicates that no physical
reductions in power sector emissions
would occur for SO2. However,
remaining uncertainty prevents DOE
from estimating SO2 reductions from the
standard at this time.
Even though DOE is not certain that
there will be reduced overall emissions
from the standard, there may be an
economic benefit from reduced demand
for SO2 emission allowances. Electricity
savings decrease the generation of SO2
emissions from power production,
which can lessen the need to purchase
SO2 emissions allowance credits, and
thereby decrease the costs of complying
with regulatory caps on emissions.
Much like SO2, NOX emissions from
28 eastern States and the District of
Columbia (D.C.) are limited under the
CAIR. Although CAIR has been
remanded to EPA by the D.C. Circuit, it
will remain in effect until it is replaced
by a rule consistent with the Court’s
July 11, 2008, opinion in North Carolina
v. EPA. 531 F.3d 896 (D.C. Cir. 2008);
see also North Carolina v. EPA, 550 F.3d
1176 (D.C. Cir. 2008). Because all States
covered by CAIR opted to reduce NOX
emissions through participation in capand-trade programs for electric
generating units, emissions from these
sources are capped across the CAIR
region.
The proposed standard would reduce
NOX emissions in those 22 States not
affected by the CAIR. As a result, DOE
used the NEMS–BT to forecast emission
reductions from the standard that are
considered in today’s NOPR.
In contrast, in the 28 eastern States
and D.C. where CAIR is in effect, DOE’s
forecasts indicate that no NOX
emissions reductions will occur: This is
because of the permanent cap. Energy
conservation standards have the
potential to produce environmentally
related economic impact in the form of
lower prices for emissions allowance
credits, if they were large enough.
However, DOE has preliminarily
concluded that the SEM standard would
not have such an effect because the
estimated reduction in NOX emissions
or the corresponding allowance credits
in States covered by the CAIR cap
would be too small to affect allowance
prices for NOX under the CAIR.
Similar to emissions of SO2 and NOX,
future emissions of Hg would have been
subject to emissions caps. The Clean Air
Mercury Rule (CAMR) would have
permanently capped emissions of
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mercury from new and existing coalfired plants in all States beginning in
2010 (70 FR 28606). However, the
CAMR was vacated by the D.C. Circuit
in its decision in New Jersey v.
Environmental Protection Agency, 517 F
3d 574 (D.C. Cir. 2008). Thus, DOE was
able to use the NEMS–BT model to
estimate the changes in Hg emissions
resulting from the proposed rule.
EEI stated that DOE’s analysis should
take into consideration trends in
emissions reduction for CO2, NOX, SO2
and Hg (EEI, No. 14 at p. 3). DOE’s
emissions forecasts are based on
estimates produced by the AEO2009
version of NEMS which include the
future impacts of current regulation
both in the reference and the standard
case, but which do not include the
impact of future regulations. With
existing regulations, the model
estimates a steady decline in NOX and
Hg emissions from the power sector
based on the future impacts of current
regulation. But because of the
speculative nature of forecasting future
regulations, DOE does not in general
include the impact of possible future
regulations in its reference case
forecasts. However, DOE may examine
the impact of specific possible future
regulations in a sensitivity analysis.
DOE’s projections of CO2 emissions
from electric power generation are based
on the AEO2009 version of NEMS. The
emissions projections reflect market
factors and policies that affect utility
choice of power plants for electricity
generation, including existing
renewable portfolio standards. In
conducting the AEO, EIA generally
includes only those policies that are
already enacted. As enactment and the
features of a national CO2 cap and trade
program are uncertain at this point, DOE
believes it would be inappropriate to
speculate on the nature and timing of
such a policy at this stage of this
rulemaking.
2. Valuation of CO2 Emissions
DOE received comments on the
desirability of valuing the CO2
emissions reductions that result from
standards. Both NEEA and Earthjustice
urged DOE to value CO2 emissions
reductions and recommended potential
models that DOE could use to do so
(NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No.
8.5 at pp. 251–254; Earthjustice, No. 11
at pp. 2–3). AHRI commented that DOE
needs to be careful to examine the
uncertainty in potential CO2 emissions
reductions values and how costs may be
allocated to different sectors (AHRI,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at
pp. 255–256).
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For today’s proposed rule, DOE is
relying on a set of values recently
developed by an interagency process
that conducted a more thorough review
of existing estimates of the social cost of
carbon (SCC).
The SCC is intended to be a monetary
measure of the incremental damage
resulting from greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, including, but not limited to,
net agricultural productivity loss,
human health effects, property damage
from sea level rise, and changes in
ecosystem services. Any effort to
quantify and to monetize the harms
associated with climate change will
raise serious questions of science,
economics, and ethics. But with full
regard for the limits of both
quantification and monetization, the
SCC can be used to provide estimates of
the social benefits of reductions in GHG
emissions.
For at least three reasons, any single
estimate of the SCC will be contestable.
First, scientific and economic
knowledge about the impacts of climate
change continues to grow. With new
and better information about relevant
questions, including the cost, burdens,
and possibility of adaptation, current
estimates will inevitably change over
time. Second, some of the likely and
potential damages from climate
change—for example, the value society
places on adverse impacts on
endangered species—are not included
in all of the existing economic analyses.
These omissions may turn out to be
significant, in the sense that they may
mean that the best current estimates are
too low. Third, controversial ethical
judgments, including those involving
the treatment of future generations, play
a role in judgments about the SCC (see
in particular the discussion of the
discount rate, below).
To date, regulations have used a range
of values for the SCC. For example, a
regulation proposed by the U.S.
Department of Transportation (DOT) in
2008 assumed a value of $7 per ton CO2
(2006$) for 2011 emission reductions
(with a range of $0–14 for sensitivity
analysis). Regulation finalized by DOE
used a range of $0–$20 (2007$). Both of
these ranges were designed to reflect the
value of damages to the United States
resulting from carbon emissions, or the
‘‘domestic’’ SCC. In the final Model
Year 2011 Corporate Average Fuel
Economy rule, DOT used both a
domestic SCC value of $2/tCO2 and a
global SCC value of $33/tCO2 (with
sensitivity analysis at $80/tCO2),
increasing at 2.4 percent per year
thereafter.
In recent months, a variety of agencies
have worked to develop an objective
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methodology for selecting a range of
interim SCC estimates to use in
regulatory analyses until improved SCC
estimates are developed. The following
summary reflects the initial results of
these efforts and proposes ranges and
values for interim social costs of carbon
used in this rule. It should be
emphasized that the analysis described
below is preliminary. These complex
issues are of course undergoing a
process of continuing review. Relevant
agencies will be evaluating and seeking
comment on all of the scientific,
economic, and ethical issues before
establishing final estimates for use in
future rulemakings.
The interim judgments resulting from
the recent interagency review process
can be summarized as follows: (a) DOE
and other Federal agencies should
consider the global benefits associated
with the reductions of CO2 emissions
resulting from efficiency standards and
other similar rulemakings, rather
continuing the previous focus on
domestic benefits; (b) these global
benefits should be based on SCC
estimates (in 2007$) of $55, $33, $19,
$10, and $5 per ton of CO2 equivalent
emitted (or avoided) in 2007; (c) the
SCC value of emissions that occur (or
are avoided) in future years should be
escalated using an annual growth rate of
3-percent from the current values); and
(d) domestic benefits are estimated to be
approximately 6 percent of the global
values. DOE has escalated the 2007$
values to 2008$ for consistency with
other dollar values presented in this
notice, resulting in SCC estimates (in
2008$) of approximately $5, $10, $20,
$34, and $56. These interim judgments
are based on the following:
1. Global and domestic estimates of
SCC. Because of the distinctive nature of
the climate change problem, estimates
of both global and domestic SCC values
should be considered, but the global
measure should be ‘‘primary.’’ This
approach represents a departure from
past practices, which relied, for the
most part, on measures of only domestic
impacts. As a matter of law, both global
and domestic values are permissible; the
relevant statutory provisions are
ambiguous and allow the agency to
choose either measure. (It is true that
Federal statutes are presumed not to
have extraterritorial effect, in part to
ensure that the laws of the United States
respect the interests of foreign
sovereigns. But use of a global measure
for the SCC does not give extraterritorial
effect to Federal law and hence does not
intrude on such interests.)
It is true that under OMB guidance,
analysis from the domestic perspective
is required, while analysis from the
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international perspective is optional.
The domestic decisions of one nation
are not typically based on a judgment
about the effects of those decisions on
other nations. But the climate change
problem is highly unusual in the sense
that it involves (a) a global public good
in which (b) the emissions of one nation
may inflict significant damages on other
nations and (c) the United States is
actively engaged in promoting an
international agreement to reduce
worldwide emissions.
In these circumstances, the global
measure is preferred. Use of a global
measure reflects the reality of the
problem and is expected to contribute to
the continuing efforts of the United
States to ensure that emission
reductions occur in many nations.
Domestic SCC values are also
presented. The development of a
domestic SCC is greatly complicated by
the relatively few region- or countryspecific estimates of the SCC in the
literature. One potential estimate comes
from the DICE (Dynamic Integrated
Climate Economy, William Nordhaus)
model. In an unpublished paper,
Nordhaus (2007) produced
disaggregated SCC estimates using a
regional version of the DICE model. He
reported a U.S. estimate of $1/tCO2
(2007 value, 2007$), which is roughly
11 percent of the global value.
An alternative source of estimates
comes from a recent EPA modeling
effort using the FUND (Climate
Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation
and Distribution, Center for Integrated
Study of the Human Dimensions of
Global Change) model. The resulting
estimates suggest that the ratio of
domestic to global benefits varies with
key parameter assumptions. With a 3percent discount rate, for example, the
US benefit is about 6 percent of the
global benefit for the ‘‘central’’ (mean)
FUND results, while, for the
corresponding ‘‘high’’ estimates
associated with a higher climate
sensitivity and lower global economic
growth, the US benefit is less than 4
percent of the global benefit. With a 2
percent discount rate, the U.S. share is
about 2 to 5 percent of the global
estimate.
Based on this available evidence, a
domestic SCC value equal to 6 percent
of the global damages is used in this
rulemaking. This figure is in the middle
of the range of available estimates from
the literature. It is recognized that the 6
percent figure is approximate and
highly speculative and alternative
approaches will be explored before
establishing final values for future
rulemakings.
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2. Filtering existing analyses. There
are numerous SCC estimates in the
existing literature, and it is legitimate to
make use of those estimates to produce
a figure for current use. A reasonable
starting point is provided by the metaanalysis in Richard Tol, ‘‘The Social
Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers, and
Catastrophes, Economics: The OpenAccess, Open-Assessment E-Journal,’’
Vol. 2, 2008–25. https://www.economicsejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/
2008-25 (2008). With that starting point,
it is proposed to ‘‘filter’’ existing SCC
estimates by using those that (1) are
derived from peer-reviewed studies; (2)
do not weight the monetized damages to
one country more than those in other
countries; (3) use a ‘‘business as usual’’
climate scenario; and (4) are based on
the most recent published version of
each of the three major integrated
assessment models (IAMs): FUND, DICE
and PAGE (Policy Analysis of the
Greenhouse Effect) Policy.
Proposal (1) is based on the view that
those studies that have been subject to
peer review are more likely to be
reliable than those that have not been.
Proposal (2) is based on a principle of
neutrality and simplicity; it does not
treat the citizens of one nation
differently on the basis of speculative or
controversial considerations. Proposal
(3) stems from the judgment that as a
general rule, the proper way to assess a
policy decision is by comparing the
implementation of the policy against a
counterfactual state where the policy is
not implemented. A departure from this
approach would be to consider a more
dynamic setting in which other
countries might implement policies to
reduce GHG emissions at an unknown
future date, and the United States could
choose to implement such a policy now
or in the future.
Proposal (4) is based on three
complementary judgments. First, the
FUND, PAGE, and DICE models now
stand as the most comprehensive and
reliable efforts to measure the damages
from climate change. Second, the latest
versions of the three IAMs are likely to
reflect the most recent evidence and
learning, and hence they are presumed
to be superior to those that preceded
them. It is acknowledged that earlier
versions may contain information that is
missing from the latest versions. Third,
any effort to choose among them, or to
reject one in favor of the others, would
be difficult to defend at this time. In the
absence of a clear reason to choose
among them, it is reasonable to base the
SCC on all of them.
The agency is keenly aware that the
current IAMs fail to include all relevant
information about the likely impacts
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from greenhouse gas emissions. For
example, ecosystem impacts, including
species loss, do not appear to be
included in at least two of the models.
Some human health impacts, including
increases in food-borne illnesses and in
the quantity and toxicity of airborne
allergens, also appear to be excluded. In
addition, there has been considerable
recent discussion of the risk of
catastrophe and of how best to account
for worst-case scenarios. It is not clear
whether the three IAMs take adequate
account of these potential effects.
3. Use a model-weighted average of
the estimates at each discount rate. At
this time, there appears to be no
scientifically valid reason to prefer any
of the three major IAMs (FUND, PAGE,
and DICE). Consequently, the estimates
are based on an equal weighting of
estimates from each of the models.
Among estimates that remain after
applying the filter, the average of all
estimates within a model is derived.
The estimated SCC is then calculated as
the average of the three model-specific
averages. This approach ensures that the
interim estimate is not biased towards
specific models or more prolific authors.
4. Apply a 3-percent annual growth
rate to the chosen SCC values. SCC is
assumed to increase over time, because
future emissions are expected to
produce larger incremental damages as
physical and economic systems become
more stressed as the magnitude of
climate change increases. Indeed, an
implied growth rate in the SCC is
produced by most studies that estimate
economic damages caused by increased
GHG emissions in future years. But
neither the rate itself nor the
information necessary to derive its
implied value is commonly reported. In
light of the limited amount of debate
thus far about the appropriate growth
rate of the SCC, applying a rate of 3percent per year seems appropriate at
this stage. This value is consistent with
the range recommended by IPCC (2007)
and close to the latest published
estimate (Hope, 2008).
For climate change, one of the most
complex issues involves the appropriate
discount rate. OMB’s current guidance
offers a detailed discussion of the
relevant issues and calls for discount
rates of 3-percent and 7-percent. It also
permits a sensitivity analysis with low
rates for intergenerational problems. (‘‘If
your rule will have important
intergenerational benefits or costs you
might consider a further sensitivity
analysis using a lower but positive
discount rate in addition to calculating
net benefits using discount rates of 3
and 7-percent.’’) The SCC is being
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developed within the general context of
the current guidance.
The choice of a discount rate,
especially over long periods of time,
raises highly contested and exceedingly
difficult questions of science,
economics, philosophy, and law. See,
e.g., William Nordhaus, ‘‘The Challenge
of Global Warming (2008); Nicholas
Stern, The Economics of Climate
Change’’ (2007); ‘‘Discounting and
Intergenerational Equity’’ (Paul Portney
and John Weyant, eds., 1999). Under
imaginable assumptions, decisions
based on cost-benefit analysis with high
discount rates might harm future
generations—at least if investments are
not made for the benefit of those
generations. See Robert Lind, ‘‘Analysis
for Intergenerational Discounting,’’ id. at
173, 176–177. At the same time, use of
low discount rates for particular projects
might itself harm future generations, by
ensuring that resources are not used in
a way that would greatly benefit them.
In the context of climate change,
questions of intergenerational equity are
especially important.
Reasonable arguments support the use
of a 3-percent discount rate. First, that
rate is among the two figures suggested
by OMB guidance, and hence it fits with
existing National policy. Second, it is
standard to base the discount rate on the
compensation that people receive for
delaying consumption, and the 3percent rate is close to the risk-free rate
of return, proxied by the return on long
term inflation-adjusted US Treasury
Bonds. (In the context of climate
change, it is possible to object to this
standard method for deriving the
discount rate.) Although these rates are
currently closer to 2.5 percent, the use
of 3-percent provides an adjustment for
the liquidity premium that is reflected
in these bonds’ returns.
At the same time, other arguments
support use of a 5 percent discount rate.
First, that rate can also be justified by
reference to the level of compensation
for delaying consumption, because it fits
with market behavior with respect to
individuals’ willingness to trade off
consumption across periods as
measured by the estimated post-tax
average real returns to private
investment (e.g., the S&P 500). In the
climate setting, the 5 percent discount
rate may be preferable to the riskless
rate because it is based on risky
investments and the return to projects to
mitigate climate change is also risky. In
contrast, the 3-percent riskless rate may
be a more appropriate discount rate for
projects where the return is known with
a high degree of confidence (e.g.,
highway guardrails).
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Second, 5 percent, and not 3-percent,
is roughly consistent with estimates
implied by reasonable inputs to the
theoretically derived Ramsey equation,
which specifies the optimal time path
for consumption. That equation
specifies the optimal discount rate as
the sum of two components. The first
reflects the fact that consumption in the
future is likely to be higher than
consumption today (even accounting for
climate impacts), so diminishing
marginal utility implies that the same
monetary damage will cause a smaller
reduction of utility in the future.
Standard estimates of this term from the
economics literature are in the range of
3 to 5 percent. The second component
reflects the possibility that a lower
weight should be placed on utility in
the future, to account for social
impatience or extinction risk, which is
specified by a pure rate of time
preference (PRTP). A conventional
estimate of the PRTP is 2 percent. (Some
observers believe that a principle of
intergenerational equity suggests that
the PRTP should be close to zero.) It
follows that discount rate of 5 percent
is within the range of values which are
able to be derived from the Ramsey
equation, albeit at the low end of the
range of estimates usually associated
with Ramsey discounting.
It is recognized that the arguments
above—for use of market behavior and
the Ramsey equation—face objections in
the context of climate change, and of
course there are alternative approaches.
In light of climate change, it is possible
that consumption in the future will not
be higher than consumption today, and
if so, the Ramsey equation will suggest
a lower figure. Some people have
suggested that a very low discount rate,
below 3-percent, is justified in light of
the ethical considerations calling for a
principle of intergenerational neutrality.
See Nicholas Stern, ‘‘The Economics of
Climate Change’’ (2007); for contrary
views, see William Nordhaus, The A
Question of Balance (2008); Martin
Weitzman, ‘‘Review of the Stern Review
on the Economics of Climate Change.’’
Journal of Economic Literature, 45(3):
703–724 (2007). Additionally, some
analyses attempt to deal with
uncertainty with respect to interest rates
over time; a possible approach enabling
the consideration of such uncertainties
is discussed below. Richard Newell and
William Pizer, ‘‘Discounting the Distant
Future: How Much do Uncertain Rates
Increase Valuations?’’ J. Environ. Econ.
Manage. 46 (2003) 52–71.
The application of the methodology
outlined above yields estimates of the
SCC that are reported in Table IV.16.
These estimates are reported separately
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or summary row; they are $33 per tCO2
at a 3% discount rate and $5 per tCO2
with a 5% discount rate.
horizons. Recognizing that point,
Newell and Pizer have made a careful
effort to adjust for that uncertainty. See
Newell and Pizer, supra. This is a
relatively recent contribution to the
literature.
There are several concerns with using
this approach in this context. First, it
would be a departure from current OMB
guidance. Second, an approach that
would average what emerges from
discount rates of 3-percent and 5
percent reflects uncertainty about the
discount rate, but based on a different
model of uncertainty. The Newell-Pizer
approach models discount rate
uncertainty as something that evolves
over time; in contrast, one alternative
approach would assume that there is a
single discount rate with equal
probability of 3-percent and 5 percent.
Table IV.17 reports on the application
of the Newell-Pizer adjustments. The
precise numbers depend on the
assumptions about the data generating
process that governs interest rates.
Columns (1a) and (1b) assume that
‘‘random walk’’ model best describes
the data and uses 3-percent and 5
percent discount rates, respectively.
Columns (2a) and (2b) repeat this,
except that it assumes a ‘‘meanreverting’’ process. As Newell and Pizer
report, there is stronger empirical
support for the random walk model.
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report estimates of the SCC at a 3percent discount rate. The modelweighted means are reported in the final
Analyses have been conducted at $34
and $5 (in 2008$, escalated from 2007$)
as these represent the estimates
associated with the 3-percent and 5
percent discount rates, respectively. The
3-percent and 5 percent estimates have
independent appeal and at this time a
clear preference for one over the other
is not warranted. Thus, DOE has also
included—and centered its current
attention on—the average of the
estimates associated with these discount
rates, which is approximately $20.
(Based on the $20 global value, the
domestic value would be approximately
$1 per ton of CO2 equivalent.)
It is true that there is uncertainty
about interest rates over long time
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using 3-percent and 5 percent discount
rates. The cells are empty in rows 10
and 11, because these studies did not
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The resulting estimates of the social
cost of carbon are necessarily greater.
When the adjustments from the random
walk model are applied, the estimates of
the social cost of carbon are $10 and $56
(2008$), with the 5 percent and 3
percent discount rates, respectively. The
application of the mean-reverting
adjustment yields estimates of $6 and
$37 (in 2008$).
Since the random walk model has
greater support from the data, analyses
are also conducted with the value of the
SCC set at $10 and $56 (2008$).
In summary, DOE considered in its
decision process for this notice of
proposed rulemaking the potential
global benefits resulting from reduced
CO2 emissions valued at $5, $10, $20,
$34 and $56 per metric ton, and has also
presented the domestic benefits derived
using a value of approximately $1 per
metric ton. All of these unit values
represent emissions that are valued in
2008$ and final net present values for
cumulative emissions are also reported
in 2008$ so that they can be compared
with other rulemaking analyses in the
same dollar units.
DOE recognizes that scientific and
economic knowledge about the
contribution of CO2 and other GHG to
changes in the future global climate and
the potential resulting damages to the
world economy continues to evolve
rapidly. Thus, any value placed in this
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rulemaking on reducing CO2 emissions
is subject to change.
DOE, together with other Federal
agencies, will continue to review
various methodologies for estimating
the monetary value of reductions in CO2
and other greenhouse gas emissions.
This ongoing review will consider the
comments on this subject that are part
of the public record for this and other
rulemakings, as well as other
methodological assumptions and issues.
However, consistent with DOE’s legal
obligations, and taking into account the
uncertainty involved with this
particular issue, DOE has included in
this proposed rule the most recent
values and analyses resulting from the
ongoing interagency review process.
3. Valuation of Other Emissions
DOE also investigated the potential
monetary benefit of reduced SO2, NOX,
and Hg emissions from the TSLs it
considered. As previously stated, DOE’s
initial analysis assumed the presence of
nationwide emission caps on SO2 and
caps on NOX emissions in the 28 States
covered by the CAIR. In the presence of
these caps, the NEMS–BT modeling
system that DOE used to forecast
emissions reduction indicated that no
physical reductions in power sector
emissions would occur for SO2, but that
the standards could put slight
downward pressure on the prices of
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emissions allowances in cap-and-trade
markets. Estimating this effect is very
difficult because such factors as credit
banking can change the trajectory of
prices. From its modeling to date, DOE
is unable to estimate a benefit from SO2
emissions reductions at this time. See
chapter 15 of the TSD for further details.
Because the courts have decided to
allow the CAIR rule to remain in effect,
projected annual NOX allowances from
NEMS–BT are relevant. The update to
the AEO2009-based version of NEMS–
BT includes the representation of CAIR.
As noted above, standards would not
produce an economic impact in the
form of lower prices for emissions
allowance credits in the 28 eastern
States and D.C. covered by the CAIR
cap. New or amended energy
conservation standards would reduce
NOX emissions in those 22 States that
are not affected by the CAIR. For the
area of the United States not covered by
the CAIR, DOE estimated the monetized
value of NOX emissions reductions
resulting from each of the TSLs
considered for today’s proposed rule
based on environmental damage
estimates from the literature. Available
estimates suggest a very wide range of
monetary values for NOX emissions,
ranging from $370 per ton to $3,800 per
ton of NOX from stationary sources,
measured in 2001$ (equivalent to a
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estimate is $0.66 million per ton emitted
(in 2004$) or $0.745 million per ton in
2008$. DOE derived this estimate from
a published evaluation of mercury
control using different methods and
assumptions from the first study but
also based on the present value of the
lifetime earnings of children exposed.
See Ted Gayer and Robert Hahn,
‘‘Designing Environmental Policy:
Lessons from the Regulation of Mercury
Emissions,’’ Regulatory Analysis 05–01,
AEI–Brookings Joint Center for
Regulatory Studies, Washington, DC
(2004). A version of this paper was
published in the Journal of Regulatory
Economics in 2006. The estimate was
derived by back-calculating the annual
benefits per ton from the net present
value of benefits reported in the study.
Earthjustice stated that DOE must also
calculate and monetize the value of the
reductions in emissions of particulate
matter (PM) that will result from
standards; even if DOE cannot consider
secondary PM emissions, it must
consider primary emissions.
(Earthjustice, No. 11 at pp. 5–6).
DOE agrees that PM impacts are of
concern due to human exposures that
can impact health. But impacts of PM
emissions reduction are much more
difficult to estimate than other
emissions reductions due to the
complex interactions between PM, other
power plant emissions, meteorology and
atmospheric chemistry that impact
human exposure to particulates. Human
exposure to PM usually occurs at a
significant distance from the power
plants that are emitting particulates and
particulate precursors. When power
plant emissions travel this distance they
undergo highly complex atmospheric
chemical reactions. While the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
does keep inventories of direct PM
emissions of power plants, in its source
attribution reviews the EPA does not
separate direct PM emissions from
power plants from the particulates
indirectly produced through complex
atmospheric chemical reactions. This is
in part because SO2 emissions react
with direct PM emissions particles to
produce combined sulfate particulates.
Thus it is not useful to examine how the
standard impacts direct PM emissions
independent of indirect PM production
and atmospheric dynamics. DOE is not
currently able to run a model that can
make these estimates reliably at the
national level. See chapter 15 of the
TSD for a more detailed discussion.
DOE’s polyphase TSLs represent the
increasing efficiency of the range of
motors DOE modeled in its engineering
analysis. TSLs 1, 2, and 3 represent
incremental improvements in efficiency
as a result of increasing the stack height
and the slot fill percentage. TSL 4 is
comparable to the efficiency of a threedigit frame series medium electric motor
that meets the efficiency requirements
of EPACT. TSL 5 is comparable to the
efficiency standard of a three-digit frame
series medium electric motor that meets
the NEMA Premium level, which will
become an energy conservation standard
for medium motors as prescribed by
Section 313(b) of EISA 2007. TSL 6
represents a level at which DOE has
reached the 20 percent limit of
increased stack height, increased grades
of steel and included a copper die-cast
rotor. At TSL 7, the ‘‘max-tech’’ level,
for the restricted designs DOE has
reached the design limitation maximum
increase in stack height of 20 percent
and increased grades of steel. At this
level, DOE has also implemented an
exotic steel type (Hiperco 50), a copper
die-cast rotor, a max slot fill percentage
of nearly 65 percent. For the lesser
space constrained design, DOE has
decreased the stack height from that
seen for the design at TSL 6, however,
and has moved to a copper rotor, while
also reaching the design limitation
maximum slot fill percentage.
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V. Analytical Results
A. Trial Standard Levels
DOE analyzed the benefits and
burdens of a number of TSLs for the
small electric motors that are the subject
of today’s proposed rule. Table V.1 and
Table V.2 present the trial standard
levels and the corresponding
efficiencies for the three representative
product classes.
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range of $442 to $4,540 per ton in
2008$). Refer to the OMB, Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs,
‘‘2006 Report to Congress on the Costs
and Benefits of Federal Regulations and
Unfunded Mandates on State, Local,
and Tribal Entities,’’ Washington, DC,
for additional information.
For Hg emissions reductions, DOE
estimated the national monetized values
resulting from the TSLs considered for
today’s rule based on environmental
damage estimates from the literature.
DOE conducted research for today’s
proposed rule and determined that the
impact of mercury emissions from
power plants on humans is considered
highly uncertain. However, DOE
identified two estimates of the
environmental damage of mercury based
on two estimates of the adverse impact
of childhood exposure to methyl
mercury on intelligence quotient (IQ) for
American children, and subsequent loss
of lifetime economic productivity
resulting from these IQ losses. The highend estimate is based on an estimate of
the current aggregate cost of the loss of
IQ in American children that results
from exposure to mercury of U.S. power
plant origin ($1.3 billion per year in
year 2000$), which works out to $33.3
million per ton emitted per year
(2008$). Refer to L. Trasande et al.,
‘‘Applying Cost Analyses to Drive
Policy that Protects Children,’’ 1076
Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 911 (2006) for
additional information. The low-end
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
Each TSL for capacitor-start small
motors consists of a combination of
efficiency levels for induction-run
motors and capacitor-run motors. CSIR
and CSCR motors are used in similar
applications and generally can be used
interchangeably provided the
applications are not bound by strict
space constraints and will allow the
presence of a second capacitor shell on
the motor. Standards may impact the
relative market share of CSIR and CSCR
motors for general-purpose single-phase
applications by changing the upfront
cost of motors as well as their estimated
losses. Section IV.G of this NOPR and
chapter 10 of the TSD describe DOE’s
model of this market dynamic.
DOE developed seven possible
efficiency levels for CSIR motors and
eight possible efficiency levels for CSCR
motors. Rather than present all possible
combinations of these efficiency levels,
DOE chose a representative set of 8
TSLs that span the range from low
energy savings to the maximum national
energy savings. Because of the
interaction between the combined CSIR
and CSCR market share, there is not a
simple relationship between the
combination of efficiency levels and the
resulting energy savings. DOE’s
capacitor-start cross-elasticity model
was used to evaluate the impacts of each
TSL on motor shipments in each
product class. The model predicts that
TSLs 1 through 5 result in relatively
minor changes in product class market
shares, while TSLs 6, 7, and 8 result in
more significant changes. Uncertainties
in the cross-elasticity model, and in the
timescale of market share response to
standards, lead to greater uncertainty in
the national impacts of TSLs 6, 7, and
8, than of TSLs 1 through 5. A summary
of results for all combinations of CSIR
and CSCR efficiency levels is presented
in chapter 10 of the TSD.
TSL 1 is a combination consists of the
fourth efficiency level analyzed for CSIR
motors and the second efficiency level
for CSCR motors. This TSL uses similar
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engineering design options for both
CSIR and CSCR motors, and the
efficiency levels correspond to what
manufacturers would consider an
EPACT 1992 equivalent efficiency
standard. TSL 2 increases the efficiency
level of the CSCR motor to the third
efficiency level, which corresponds to
the minimum life-cycle cost. The
efficiency level for the CSIR motor
remains the same as in TSL 1. TSL 3
raises the CSIR efficiency level, which
DOE meets by implementing a copper
die-cast rotor, increasing slot fill, and
reaching the 20 percent limit on
increased stack height, or by doubling
the original stack height and increasing
slot fill. However, the CSCR efficiency
level remains at the minimum LCC.
TSLs 4, and 5, both show the same
efficiency level for CSIR motors, but
different efficiency levels for CSCR
motors. To obtain the efficiency level for
CSIR motors, DOE had to use either a
copper rotor in combination with a
thinner and higher grade of steel and a
stack increase of 20 percent, or only a
higher grade of steel with a stack
exceeding a 20 percent increase. The
80.3 percent efficiency level for CSCR
motors in TSL 5 corresponds again to
the same design and efficiency level for
TSL 2 and 3. To achieve the 81.6
percent efficiency level for CSCR
motors, DOE created designs with a 20
percent increase in stack height and a
higher grade of steel or used a copper
rotor with a stack height above a 20
percent increase. TSL 4 represents the
combination of the highest CSIR and
CSCR levels which have more
customers who benefit than customers
who are harmed according to DOE’s
LCC analysis. TSL 5 increases energy
savings relative to TSL 4 because DOE
estimates greater CSCR market share,
and the CSCR efficiency level again
corresponds with the minimum LCC. At
this TSL, the efficiency levels for both
CSIR and CSCR motors equate to what
manufacturers would consider a NEMA
Premium level.
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TSL 6 represents ‘‘max-tech’’ levels
for CSIR and CSCR motors, as
determined by DOE’s engineering
analysis; at this level CSCR motors are
very expensive relative to CSIR motors,
and DOE forecasts almost complete
market shift to CSIR motors. TSLs 7 and
8 represent cases in which CSIR motors
are, on average, very expensive relative
to CSCR motors as a result of standards,
and DOE forecasts almost complete
market shifts to CSCR motors in both of
its reference scenarios. Because CSCR
motors are more efficient at these levels,
national energy savings are increased
beyond that of the ‘‘max-tech’’ level,
TSL 6. TSL 7 pairs the ‘‘max-tech’’
requirements for CSIR motors with the
minimum LCC efficiency level for CSCR
motors, while TSL 8 level pairs maxtech CSIR requirements with the
second-highest CSCR motor efficiency
level that DOE analyzed. The ordering
of TSLs 5, 6, 7, and 8, with respect to
energy savings is robust in the face of
uncertainties in the inputs to, and the
parameters of, DOE’s cross-elasticity
model.
B. Economic Justification and Energy
Savings
In examining the potential for energy
savings for small electric motors, DOE
analyzed whether standards would be
economically justified. As part of this
examination, a variety of elements were
examined. These elements are based on
the various criteria specified in EPCA.
See generally, 42 U.S.C. 6295.
1. Economic Impacts on Customers
DOE analyzed the economic impacts
on small electric motor customers by
looking at the effects standards would
have on the LCC, PBP, and various
subgroups. DOE also examined the
effects of the rebuttable presumption
payback period set out in 42 U.S.C.
6295. All of these analyses are discussed
below.
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some types of applications (e.g. portable
compressors) a majority of motors may
run only a few hours per day. Because
of the large benefits seen by a minority
of motors that run at all times, a
majority of motors may see a net LCC
cost even when on average for all
motors there is a net LCC benefit.
Other key outputs of the LCC analysis
are the mean and median payback
periods at each efficiency level. Table
V.3, Table V.4, and Table V.5 show the
results for the three representative
product classes: 1 hp, four-pole,
polyphase; 0.5 hp, four-pole, CSIR; and
0.75 hp, four-pole, CSCR motors.
Frequency plots of the distributions of
life-cycle costs and payback periods for
all three motor categories are available
in chapter 8 of the TSD.
For polyphase small electric motors,
customers experience net LCC savings,
on average, through efficiency level 4.
Efficiency level 3 has the minimum
average life-cycle cost. The long average
payback periods are due to the
significant fraction of customers with
relatively few annual operating hours.
DOE feels that the median payback
period better characterizes the
distribution.
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To evaluate the net economic impact
of the trial standard levels on customers,
DOE conducted LCC and PBP analyses
for each of these levels. Higherefficiency small electric motors would
affect customers in two ways: annual
operating expense would decrease and
purchase price would increase. DOE
analyzed the net effect by calculating
the LCC. Section IV.F discusses the
inputs used for calculating the LCC and
PBP. Inputs used for calculating the LCC
include total installed costs (equipment
price plus installation costs), annual
energy savings, electricity rates,
electricity price trends, repair costs,
maintenance costs, equipment lifetime,
and discount rates.
The key outputs of the LCC analysis
are average LCC savings for each
product class for each considered
efficiency level, relative to the base case,
as well as a probability distribution of
LCC reduction or increase. The LCC
analysis also estimates, for each product
class, the fraction of customers for
which the LCC will either decrease (net
benefit), or increase (net cost), or exhibit
no change (no impact) relative to the
base case forecast. No impacts occur
when the equipment efficiencies of the
base case forecast already equal or
exceed the considered efficiency level.
Small electric motors are used in
applications that can have a wide range
of operating hours. Motors that are
running at all hours will tend to have a
large net LCC benefit because of the
large operating cost savings, while for
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
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DOE’s national energy savings
calculations, described in sections IV.G
and V.B.3, model the market share of
CSIR and CSCR motors in each product
class in order to account for customers
selecting CSIR or CSCR motors to
reduce their life-cycle costs.
EP24NO09.020
CSCR efficiency level 3 has the greatest
average life-cycle cost savings. Table V.5
also includes the life-cycle cost of a
baseline 0.75 horsepower CSIR motor.
This motor has an installed cost similar
to the baseline-efficient CSCR motor,
but significantly higher annual
operating costs and life-cycle cost.
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For CSIR small electric motors,
customers experience net LCC savings,
on average, through efficiency level 6.
CSIR efficiency level 4 has the
minimum average life-cycle cost.
For CSCR small electric motors,
customers experience net LCC savings,
on average, through efficiency level 5.
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middle of the forecast period). This
sensitivity calculation also examines the
proportion of motors with <2% lifecycle cost impact as a measure of the
fraction of motors that may have
relatively small impacts from a
standard. Table V.6 provides the results
of this sensitivity calculation. Under
this analytical scenario, life-cycle cost
savings increase slightly.
For comparison purposes, DOE
calculated the same sensitivity for
single-phase motors including CSIR and
CSCR motors. The results of these
sensitivity calculations are provided in
Table V.7 and Table V.8.
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In addition to the reference case
results reported in the tables above,
DOE performed extensive sensitivity
analyses of the LCC estimates. These
sensitivity analyses examined the
magnitude by which the estimates
varied depending on analysis inputs
such as the cost of electricity, the
purchase year of the motor, the motor
capacity, the number of poles and other
inputs and assumptions of the analysis.
DOE reports the details of the sensitivity
calculations in chapter 8 of the TSD and
the accompanying appendices.
For polyphase motors, DOE
performed a sensitivity calculation
using a full distribution of motor sizes
and poles, the full cost of reactive
power, and a purchase year of 2030 (the
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity
Calculations
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 / Proposed Rules
DOE also made sensitivity
calculations for the case where CSIR
motor owners switch to CSCR motors.
DOE reports the details of the sensitivity
calculations in chapter 8 of the TSD and
the accompanying appendices. Section
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V.A above describes the relationship
between efficiency levels for the two
categories of capacitor-start motors and
the TSLs. For TSLs where there is a
large increase in first cost for CSIR
motors and only a moderate increase in
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price for CSCR motors, DOE forecasts
that a large fraction of CSIR motor
customers will switch to CSCR motors.
Table V.7 shows the shipmentsweighted average of the LCC for CSIR
motors including those users that switch
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which is that level where both CSIR and
CSCR motors are at the maximum
technologically feasible efficiency for
space-constrained designs.
c. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
Using the LCC spreadsheet model,
DOE determined the impact of the trial
standard levels on the following
customer sub-groups: small businesses
and customers with space-constrained
applications.
payback periods for small businesses
purchasing polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR
motors, respectively. For polyphase
motors, LCC savings are positive for
efficiency levels 1, 2, 3, and 4 for motor
customers as a whole, but level 1 has
negative savings for small businesses.
Efficiency level 3 shows the greatest
savings for all customers as well as for
small businesses. For CSIR motors, LCC
savings are somewhat smaller for small
businesses, but the results are generally
similar between small businesses and
motor customers as a whole. For CSCR
motors, LCC savings are positive for
efficiency levels 1 through 5 for motor
customers as a whole, but level 5 has
negative savings for small businesses.
Efficiency level 3 shows the greatest
savings for all customers as well as for
small businesses. Small businesses do
not have as attractive consumer benefits
as the general population because they
do not have the same access to capital
as larger businesses, resulting in higher
average discount rates than the industry
average.
WReier-Aviles on DSKGBLS3C1PROD with PROPOSALS2
Small Businesses
For small business owners, the LCC
impacts and payback periods are
different than for the general
population. Table V.10, Table V.11, and
Table V.12 show the LCC impacts and
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to CSCR. The table shows a negative
average LCC is forecast for only TSL 6
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Table V.13, Table V.14, and Table
V.15 show the results of the LCC
analysis for the space-constrained
subgroup. Polyphase levels 1 through 4,
CSIR levels 1 through 3 and 5, and
CSCR level 1 are unchanged for spaceconstrained consumers because motor
designs meeting these efficiency levels
have stack length increases of less than
or equal to 20 percent. CSIR efficiency
level 6 and CSCR efficiency level 5 are
the only levels which change from
positive LCC average savings for all
customers to negative LCC savings for
space-constrained customers.
17 Core losses are generated in the steel
components of the motor by two electromagnetic
phenomena: hysteresis losses and eddy currents.
Hysteresis losses are caused by magnetic domains
resisting reorientation to the alternating magnetic
field (i.e., 60 times per second, or 60 hertz). Eddy
currents are physical currents that are induced in
the steel laminations by the magnetic flux of the
windings.
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One of the design options DOE
considered in developing more efficient
motors was to increase the motor stack
length. Increasing stack length can
increase motor efficiency by lowering
core losses.17 Customers with spaceconstrained applications (defined as
those customers whose motor stack
length can increase no more than 20
percent), cannot use this design option
as effectively as those without
constraints. In order to meet efficiency
targets without increasing stack length,
other, more costly, design options are
used. Customers with these constraints,
therefore, have less attractive economic
benefits to efficiency, particularly for
motors at the higher efficiency levels
considered by DOE. The LCC results
presented in section IV.F assume that 20
percent of customers face space
constraints, while 80 percent of
customers may use any stack length (up
to the 100 percent increase considered
by DOE). Customers without space
constraints have customer economic
benefits which are more attractive than
the overall results, particularly at higher
levels of efficiency.
Customers With Space-Constrained
Applications
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d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
As discussed in section II.C, EPCA
provides a rebuttable presumption that,
in essence, an energy conservation
standard is economically justified if the
increased purchase cost for a product
that meets the standard is less than
three times the value of the first-year
energy savings resulting from the
standard. However, DOE routinely
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conducts a full economic analysis that
considers the full range of impacts,
including those to the customer,
manufacturer, Nation, and environment,
as required under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C.
6316(e)(1). The results of this analysis
serve as the basis for DOE to evaluate
definitively the economic justification
for a potential standard level (thereby
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supporting or rebutting the results of
any preliminary determination of
economic justification).
For comparison with the more
detailed analysis results, DOE
calculated a rebuttable presumption
payback period for each TSL. Table V.16
and Table V.17 show the rebuttable
presumption payback periods for the
representative product classes.
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a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
To assess the potential impacts on
manufacturers, DOE used the two
markup scenarios described in section
IV.I. For both markup scenarios, DOE
considered the shipment scenario that
uses a reference level of economic
growth, no elasticity, and a baseline
market share between CSCR and CSIR
motors. To assess the lower end of the
range of potential impacts on the small
electric motors industry, DOE
considered the preservation of return on
invested capital markup scenario. This
scenario assumes that manufacturers
would be able to maintain the ratio of
net operating profit (after taxes) to
invested capital after new energy
conservation standards. To assess the
higher end of the range of potential
impacts on the small electric motors
industry, DOE considered the
preservation of operating profit markup
scenario. This scenario assumes that the
industry can only maintain its operating
profit (i.e., earnings before interest and
taxes) after the effective date of the
standard. The industry would do so by
not passing through all of the higher
costs to customers. Table V.18 through
Table V.21 show the low end and high
end of the range of MIA results,
respectively, for each TSL using the
scenarios described above. The results
present the impacts of energy
conservation standards for polyphase
small electric motors separately and
combine the impacts for CSIR and CSCR
small electric motors.
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2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
DOE used the INPV in the MIA to
compare the financial impacts of
different TSLs on small electric motor
manufacturers. The INPV is the sum of
all net cash flows discounted by the
industry’s cost of capital (discount rate).
DOE used the GRIM to compare the
INPV in the base case (i.e., no new
energy conservation standards) with the
INPV for each TSL in the standards
case. To evaluate the range of cash-flow
impacts on the small electric motors
industry, DOE modeled two different
scenarios using different assumptions
for markups and shipments that
correspond to the range of anticipated
market responses. Each scenario results
in a unique set of cash flows and
corresponding industry value at each
TSL. The difference in INPV between
the base case and a standards case is an
estimate of the economic impacts that
implementing that standard level would
have on the entire industry.
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No polyphase TSL has a rebuttable
presumption payback period of less
than 3 years. For CSIR and CSCR
motors, TSLs 1 through 3 have
rebuttable presumption payback periods
of less than 3 years.
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Polyphase Small Electric Motors
DOE estimated the impacts on INPV
at TSL 1 to range from $0.52 million to
¥$1.14 million, or a change in INPV of
0.80 percent to ¥1.78 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 9.1 percent, to $4.68
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 1 represents an
efficiency increase of 2 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. The
majority of manufacturers have motors
that meet this efficiency. All
manufacturers that were interviewed
stated that their existing motor designs
allow for simple modifications that
would require minor capital and
equipment conversion costs to reach
TSL 1. A possible modification analyzed
in the engineering analysis is a roughly
7 percent increase in number of
laminations within both space
constrained and non-space constrained
motors. Manufacturers indicated that
modifications like an increase in
laminations could be made within
existing baseline motor designs without
significantly altering their size. In
addition, these minor design changes
will not raise the production costs
beyond the cost of most motors sold
today, resulting in minimal impacts on
industry value.
DOE estimated the impacts in INPV at
TSL 2 to range from $1.11 million to
¥$1.56 million, or a change in INPV of
1.74 percent to ¥2.42 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 11.53 percent, to $4.55
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
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standards. TSL 2 represents an
efficiency increase of 4 percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Similar
to TSL 1, at TSL 2 manufacturers stated
that their existing motor designs allows
for simple modifications that would
entail only minor capital and equipment
conversion costs. A possible
modification analyzed in the
engineering analysis increases the
number of laminations by
approximately 15-percent from the
baseline within both space constrained
and non-spaced constrained motors.
Manufacturers indicated that these
modifications could be made within
baseline motor designs without
significantly changing their size. At TSL
2, the production costs of standards
compliant motors do not increase
enough to significantly affect INPV.
At TSL 3, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $1.83 million to
¥$2.01 million, or a change in INPV of
2.86 percent to ¥3.14 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 12.35 percent, to $4.51
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 3 represents an
efficiency increase of 6-percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Similar
to TSL 1 and TSL 2, at TSL 3
manufacturers stated that their existing
motor designs would still allow for
simple modifications that would not
require significant capital and
equipment conversion costs. In the
engineering analysis, standards
compliant motors that meet the
efficiency requirements at TSL 3 have
17-percent more laminations than the
baseline design within both space
constrained and non-spaced constrained
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motors. These changes do not result in
significant impacts on INPV.
At TSL 4, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $2.41 million to
¥$2.39 million, or a change in INPV of
3.76 percent to ¥3.73 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 13.44 percent, to $4.46
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 4 represents an
efficiency increase of 7-percent over the
baseline for polyphase motors. Most
manufacturers that were interviewed are
able to reach this level without
significant redesigns. At TSL 4, a
possible design pathway for
manufacturers could be to increase the
number of laminations by
approximately 20 percent over the
baseline designs within space
constrained and non-space constrained
motors. However, manufacturers
reported that TSL 4 would be the
highest efficiency level achievable
before required efficiencies could
significantly change motor designs and
production equipment. However, past
TSL 4 the size of the motors may need
to be significantly modified.
At TSL 5, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $10.85 million to
¥$8.83 million, or a change in INPV of
16.91 percent to ¥13.76 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 46.20 percent, to $2.77
million, compared to the base-case
value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 5 represents an
efficiency increase of 10-percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors. TSL
5 is equivalent to the current NEMA
premium level that manufacturers
produce for medium-sized electric
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motors. Although some manufacturers
reported having existing small electric
motors that reach TSL 5, the designs
necessary are more complex than their
cost optimized designs at lower TSLs. A
possible redesign for non-space
constrained motors would include
adding up to 49 percent more
laminations relative to the baseline
motor design and improving the grade
of steel. For space constrained motors,
redesigns could require up to 114
percent more laminations of a thinner
and higher grade of steel. Manufacturers
are concerned that redesigns at TSL 5
could possibly increase the size of the
motors if they do not currently have
motors that reach the NEMA premium
efficiency levels. A shift to larger motors
could be detrimental to sales due to the
inability of OEMs to use standardscompliant motors as direct replacements
in some applications. According to
manufacturers, at TSL 5 the industry
would incur significantly higher capital
and equipment conversion costs in
comparison to the lower efficiency
levels analyzed. DOE estimates that the
capital and equipment conversion costs
required to make the redesigns at TSL
5 would be approximately four times
the amount required to meet TSL 1. At
TSL 5 manufacturers would also be
required to shift their entire production
of baseline motors to higher priced and
higher efficiency motors, making their
current cost-optimized designs obsolete.
These higher production costs could
have a greater impact on the industry
value if operating profit does not
increase. Manufacturers indicated that
setting energy conservation standards at
TSL 5 could cause some manufacturers
to consider exiting the small electric
motor market because of the lack of
resources, potentially unjustifiable
investments for a small segment of their
business, and the possibility of lower
revenues if OEMs will not accept large
motors.
At TSL 6, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $15.94 million to
¥$13.09 million, or a change in INPV
of 24.84 percent to ¥20.41 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 71.78 percent, to
$1.45 million, compared to the basecase value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 6 represents an
efficiency increase of 12-percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors.
Currently, no small electric motors are
rated above the equivalent to the NEMA
premium standard (TSL 5). Possible
redesigns for space constrained motors
at TSL 6 include the use of copper
rotors and a 114-percent increase in the
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number of laminations of a thinner and
higher grade of steel. These changes
would cause manufacturers to incur
significant capital and equipment
conversion costs to redesign their space
constrained motors due to the lack of
experience in using copper. According
to manufacturers, copper tooling is
significantly costlier and not currently
used by any manufacturers for the
production of small electric motors. If
copper rotor designs are required,
manufacturers with in-house die-casting
capabilities will need completely new
machinery to process copper.
Manufacturers that outsource rotor
production would pay higher prices for
their rotor designs. In both cases, TSL 6
results in significant equipment
conversion costs to modify current
manufacturing processes in addition to
redesigning motors to use copper in the
applications of general purpose small
electric motors. Largely due to the
significant changes to space constrained
motors, at TSL 6 DOE estimates that
manufacturers would incur close to six
times the total conversion costs required
at TSL 1 (a total of approximately $9.2
million). However, for non-space
constrained motors, manufacturers are
able to redesign their existing motors
without the use of copper rotors by
using twice the number of laminations
that are contained in the baseline
design. Therefore, for non-space
constrained motors the impacts at TSL
6 are significantly less because
manufacturers can maintain existing
manufacturing processes without the
potentially significant changes
associated with copper rotors. At TSL 6
the impacts for non-space constrained
motors are mainly due to higher motor
costs and the possible decrease in
profitability if manufacturers are unable
to fully pass through their higher
production costs.
At TSL 7, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $85.23 million to
¥$59.74 million, or a change in INPV
of 132.87 percent to ¥93.14 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 258.82 percent, to
¥$8.18 million, compared to the basecase value of $5.15 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 7 represents an
efficiency increase of 14-percent over
the baseline for polyphase motors.
Currently, the market does not have any
motors that reach TSL 7. In addition to
possibly using copper rotors, at TSL 7
space constrained motor designs could
also require exotic steels. There is some
uncertainty about the magnitude of the
impacts on the industry of using
Hiperco steel. Manufacturers were
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unsure about the required conversion
costs to reach TSL 7 because of the
unproven properties and applicability of
the technology in the general purpose
motors covered by this rulemaking.
Significant R&D for both manufacturing
processes and motor redesigns would be
necessary to understand the
applications of exotic steels to general
purpose small electric motors.
According to manufacturers, requiring
this technology could possibly cause
some competitors to exit the small
electric motor market. If manufacturers’
concerns of having to use both copper
rotors and new steels materialize,
manufactures could be significantly
impacted. For non-space constrained
motors, DOE estimates that
manufacturers would require the use of
copper rotors but not exotic steels. If
manufacturers are required to redesign
non-spaced constrained motors with
copper, the total conversion for the
industry increases greatly because all
motors require substantially different
production equipment. Finally, the
production costs of motors that meet
TSL 7 could be up to 18 times higher
than the production costs of baseline
motors. The cost to manufacture
standards-compliant motors could have
a significant impact on the industry if
operating profit does not increase with
production costs.
Capacitor-Start, Induction Run and
Capacitor-Start, Capacitor-Run Small
Electric Motors
At TSL 1, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $11.21 million to
¥$14.87 million, or a change in INPV
of 4.02 percent to ¥5.33 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 28.51 percent, to $15.99
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 1 represents an
efficiency increase of 19-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 10percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. At TSL 1 for CSIR motors, DOE
estimates manufacturers would need to
increase the number of laminations for
space constrained motors by
approximately 33-percent and use a
thinner and higher grade of steel. For
non-space constrained CSIR motors,
manufacturers could increase
laminations by approximately 61percent with the use of a thinner grade
steel. For space constrained CSCR
motors, manufacturers could increase
laminations by ten percent and use a
higher grade of steel. For non-space
constrained CSCR motors, manufactures
could increase laminations by
approximately 37 percent. For both
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CSIR and CSCR motors, the additional
stack length needed to reach TSL 1 is
still within the tolerances of many
manufacturers existing motors. DOE
estimates that these changes would
cause the industry to incur capital and
equipment conversion costs of
approximately $17 million to reach
TSL 1. TSL 1 would increase production
costs, but the cost increases are not
enough to severely affect INPV under
the scenarios analyzed.
At TSL 2, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $12.22 million to
¥$15.64 million, or a change in INPV
of 4.38 percent to ¥5.61 percent. At this
level industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 30.58 percent, to $15.53
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 2 represents an
efficiency increase of 19-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. For CSIR motors, the same
changes to meet TSL 1 are necessary for
TSL 2. For CSCR motors, TSL 2
represents what manufacturers would
consider a NEMA Premium equivalent
efficiency level. The changes required
for CSCR motors could cause
manufacturers to incur additional
capital conversion costs to
accommodate the required increase in
laminations. Imposing standards would
increase production costs for both CSIR
and CSCR motors, but the cost increases
for both types of motors are not enough
to severely affect INPV.
At TSL 3, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $18.03 million to
¥$22.87 million, or a change in INPV
of 6.47 percent to ¥8.20 percent. At this
level, industry cash flow decreases by
approximately 41.16 percent, to $13.17
million, compared to the base-case
value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 3 represents an
efficiency increase of 23-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. At TSL 3, space constrained
CSIR motors could require redesigns
that use copper rotors. Using copper
rotors for space constrained CSIR
motors could cause manufacturers to
incur approximately $25 million in
capital and equipment conversion costs,
largely to purchase the equipment
necessary to produce these redesigned
motors. As with polyphase motors,
manufacturers reported that copper
rotor tooling is significantly costlier
than traditional aluminum rotor tooling
and not currently used by the industry
for the production of small electric
motors. Similarly, in-house die-casting
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capabilities would need completely new
machinery to process copper and the
alternative of outsourcing rotor
production would greatly increase
material costs. For non-space
constrained CSIR motors, manufacturers
could redesign motors by increasing the
number of laminations without the use
of copper rotors, resulting in
significantly smaller impacts. At TSL 3,
the impacts for non-space constrained
motors are mainly due to higher motor
material costs and a possible decline in
profit margins. TSL 3 represents what
manufacturers would consider a NEMA
Premium equivalent efficiency level for
CSCR motors. The required efficiencies
for space constrained CSCR motors
could possibly be met by manufacturers
by increasing the number of laminations
by 15-percent and using higher steel
grades. The required efficiencies for
non-spaced constrained CSCR motors
could be met by increasing the number
of laminations by 53-percent. Because
the redesigns for CSCR motors are less
substantial, the impacts at TSL 3 are
driven largely by the required CSIR
efficiencies.
At TSL 4, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $31.21 million to
¥$31.57 million, or a change in INPV
of 11.19 percent to ¥11.32 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 46.63 percent, to
$11.94 million, compared to the basecase value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 4 represents an
efficiency increase of 27-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 15percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. TSL 4 currently represents a
NEMA premium equivalent level for
CSIR motors. Possible redesigns for both
CSIR and CSCR motors to meet TSL 4
involve both increasing the number of
laminations as well as using higher
grades of steel. For space constrained
CSIR motors, redesigns could require
the use of copper rotors. Because of
these redesigns, standards-compliant
motors at TSL 4 have significantly
higher costs than manufacturers’
baseline motors. These changes increase
the engineering and capital resources
that must be employed, especially for
CSCR motors. The negative impacts at
TSL 4 are driven by the conversion costs
that potentially require some singlephase motors to use copper rotors, and
the higher production costs of
standards-compliant motors.
At TSL 5, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $27.96 million to
¥$29.01 million, or a change in INPV
of 10.03 percent to ¥10.41 percent. At
this level industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 41.16 percent, to
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$13.17 million, compared to the basecase value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 5 represents an
efficiency increase of 27-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. TSL 5 represents NEMA
premium equivalent efficiency levels for
both CSIR and CSCR motors. At TSL 5,
space constrained CSIR motors could
require the use of copper rotors. The
required efficiencies for non-space
constrained CSIR motors could be met
by manufacturers by increasing the
number of laminations by 82-percent
and using a higher grade of steel. The
required efficiencies for space
constrained CSCR motors could be met
by manufacturers by increasing the
number of laminations by 15-percent
and using higher steel grades. The
required efficiencies for non-spaced
constrained CSCR motors could be met
by increasing the number of laminations
by 53-percent. Although manufacturers
reported that meeting TSL 5 is feasible,
the production costs of motors at TSL 5
increase substantially and require
approximately $25 million in total
capital and equipment conversion costs.
The negative impacts at TSL 5 are
driven by these conversion costs that
potentially require some CSIR motors to
use copper rotors, and the impacts on
profitability if the higher production
costs of standards-compliant motors
cannot be fully passed through to
customers.
At TSL 6, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $187.88 million
to ¥$137.53 million, or a change in
INPV of 67.39 percent to ¥49.33
percent. At this level, industry cash
flow decreases by approximately 131.38
percent, to ¥$7.02 million, compared to
the base-case value of $22.34 million in
the year leading up to the energy
conservation standards. TSL 6
represents an efficiency increase of 33percent over the baseline for CSIR
motors and 23-percent over the baseline
for CSCR motors. Currently, the market
does not have any CSIR and CSCR
motors that reach TSL 6. TSL 6
represents the max-tech level for both
CSIR and CSCR motors. In addition to
the possibility of using copper rotors for
both CSIR and CSCR motors, at TSL 6
space constrained motor designs could
require exotic steels. There is a great
deal of uncertainty about the impact of
Hiperco steel on the industry, primarily
due to uncertainty about capital
conversion costs required to use a new,
exotic steel. Significant R&D in
manufacturing processes would be
necessary to understand the
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applications of exotic steels in general
purpose small electric motors. Because
all space constrained motors could
require copper rotors and exotic steel
and all non-spaced constrained motors
could require copper rotors, the capital
conversion costs are a significant driver
of INPV at TSL 6. Finally, the
production costs of motors that meet
TSL 6 can be as high as 13 times the
production cost of baseline motors,
which impact profitability if the higher
production costs cannot be fully passed
through to OEMs. Manufacturers
indicated that the potentially large
impacts on the industry at TSL 6 could
force some manufacturers to exit the
small electric motor market because of
the lack of resources and unjustifiable
investment for a small segment of their
total business.
At TSL 7, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $29.80 million to
¥$35.84 million, or a change in INPV
of 10.69 percent to ¥12.86 percent. At
this level, industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 81.21 percent, to
$4.20 million, compared to the basecase value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 7 represents an
efficiency increase of 33-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 13percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. TSL 7 corresponds to the NEMA
premium equivalent efficiency for CSCR
motors. The required efficiencies for
space constrained CSCR motors could
be met by manufacturers by increasing
the number of laminations by
15-percent and using higher steel
grades. The required efficiencies for
non-spaced constrained CSCR motors
could be met by increasing the number
of laminations by 53-percent.
Consequently, the industry is not
severely impacted by the CSCR
efficiency requirements at TSL 7
because these design changes could be
met with relatively minor changes to
baseline designs. However, there are no
CSIR motors currently on the market
that reach TSL 7 (the max-tech level for
CSIR). At TSL 7 space constrained CSIR
redesigns could require the use of both
copper rotors and exotic steels while
non-space constrained CSIR motors
could require only copper rotors.
Manufacturers continue to have the
same concerns about copper rotors and
exotic steels for CSIR motors as with
other efficiency levels that may require
these technologies. The impacts on
INPV for non-spaced constrained CSIR
motors are significantly less because of
the exclusion of exotic steels in motor
redesigns. The INPV impacts for all
single-phase motors at TSL 7 are less
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severe than at TSL 6 due to a change in
balance of shipments between CSIR and
CSCR motors. At TSL 7, the high cost
of CSIR motors would likely cause
customers to migrate to CSCR motors.
For the analysis, DOE assumes that
manufacturers would invest in the
alternative technologies for CSIR motors
regardless of the modeled migration to
CSCR motors because of the variability
in that migration. The industry is
impacted by the high conversion costs
for CSIR motors even though these are
a small portion of total shipments after
standards. However, because the total
volume of single-phase motors does not
decline with the shift from CSIR to
CSCR motors, the higher revenues from
standards-compliant CSCR mitigate the
significant redesign costs for CSIR
motors.
At TSL 8, DOE estimated the impacts
in INPV to range from $56.70 million to
¥$53.30 million, or a change in INPV
of 20.34 percent to ¥19.12 percent. At
this level, industry cash flow decreases
by approximately 90.42 percent, to
$2.14 million, compared to the basecase value of $22.34 million in the year
leading up to the energy conservation
standards. TSL 8 represents an
efficiency increase of 33-percent over
the baseline for CSIR motors and 20percent over the baseline for CSCR
motors. As with TSL 7, CSIR motors are
at the max-tech level at TSL 8. However,
the impacts on INPV are worse at TSL
7 because the efficiency requirements
for CSCR motors increase. At TSL 8,
both space constrained and non-space
constrained CSCR motors could require
the use of copper, which increases the
total conversion costs for the industry.
Manufacturers continue to share the
same concerns about the copper and
exotic steel investments for CSCR and
CSIR motors as at TSL 6 and TSL 7. Like
TSL 7, TSL 8 causes a migration of CSIR
motors to CSCR motors. DOE assumed
that manufacturers would incur the
required conversion costs for both CSCR
and CSIR motors, despite the low
market share of CSIR motors after the
effective date of the energy conservation
standards. After standards, the shift to
CSCR motors increases total industry
revenue and helps to mitigate the
significant capital conversion costs
necessary for CSIR motors to use both
copper and exotic metals.
b. Impacts on Direct Employment
To assess the impacts of energy
conservation standards on small electric
motors direct manufacturing
employment, DOE used the GRIM to
estimate domestic labor expenditures
and employment levels. DOE used the
latest available statistical data from the
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U.S. Census Bureau’s 2006 Annual
Survey of Manufacturers (2006 ASM),
results from other analyses, and
interviews with manufacturers to
estimate the inputs necessary to
calculate industry-wide domestic labor
expenditures and employment levels. In
the GRIM, total labor expenditures are a
function of the labor content, the sales
volume, and the wage rate which
remains fixed in real terms over time.
The total employment figures presented
for the small electric motor industry
includes both production and nonproduction workers.
DOE estimates that there are
approximately 1,800 U.S. production
and non-production workers in the
small electric motors industry.
DOE does not believe that standards
would materially alter the domestic
employment levels of the small electric
motors industry. Most manufacturers
indicated that employment levels would
stay constant regardless of any changes
in regulations. However, some
manufacturers stated that if efficiency
levels were raised significantly enough
for the company to exit the small
electric motor market, a small number of
jobs could be eliminated. Even in the
event that some manufacturers exit the
market, the direct employment impact
will likely be minimal. Most covered
small motors are manufactured on
shared production lines and in factories
that also produce a substantial number
of other products. If a manufacturer
decided to exit the market, these
employees would likely be used in some
other capacity, reducing the number of
headcount reductions. These
manufacturers estimated that no
production jobs would be lost due to
energy conservation standards, but
rather the engineering departments
could be reduced by up to one engineer
per dropped product line.
The employment impacts calculated
by DOE are independent of the
employment impacts from the broader
U.S. economy, which are documented
in chapter 15 of the TSD accompanying
this notice. For further information and
results on direct employment see
chapter 12 of the TSD.
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
New energy conservation standards
would not significantly affect the
production capacity of small electric
motor manufacturers. For small electric
motor manufacturers, any necessary
redesign will not change the
fundamental assembly of the products
and there will likely be no long-term
capacity constraints. Manufacturers
indicated that producing more efficient
small electric motors would not be
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technically difficult and that they would
not need to build new facilities to
accommodate the manufacturing of a
more efficient motor. Additionally,
manufacturers indicated that the
industry is currently experiencing over
capacity. As a result, manufacturers
have scaled back manufacturing to cut
costs and inventory. Accordingly, DOE
believes manufacturers can use any
available excess capacity to mitigate any
possible capacity constraint as a result
of energy conservation standards. The
real risk is that some motors would be
discontinued due to lower demand after
standard rather than constrained
capacity. For further explanation of the
impacts on manufacturing capacity for
small electric motors, see chapter 12 of
the TSD.
d. Impacts on Manufacturer Subgroups
As discussed above, using average
cost assumptions to develop an industry
cash-flow estimate is inadequate for
assessing differential impacts among
manufacturer subgroups. Small
manufacturers, niche players, and
manufacturers exhibiting a cost
structure that differs largely from the
industry average could be affected
differently. DOE used the results of the
industry characterization to group
manufacturers exhibiting similar
characteristics, which reduced the need
to analyze manufacturer subgroups to
only investigating small businesses.
However, during interviews DOE did
not identify any small manufacturers of
covered motors. After conducting
further research, including the
examination of catalogs and contacting
manufacturers to discuss their product
lines, DOE still did not identify any
small manufacturers in the small
electric motor industry.
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e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
While any one regulation may not
impose a significant burden on
manufacturers, DOE understands the
combined effects of several existing and
impending regulations may have serious
consequences for some manufacturers,
groups of manufacturers, or an entire
industry. Assessing the impact of a
single regulation may overlook this
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cumulative regulatory burden. For this
reason, DOE conducts an analysis of
cumulative regulatory burden as part of
its appliance efficiency rulemakings.
In addition to the energy conservation
standards for small electric motors,
other regulations can significantly affect
manufacturers’ financial operations.
Multiple regulations affecting the same
manufacturer can quickly strain profits
and possibly cause it to exit the market.
DOE has identified other regulations
these manufacturers are facing for other
products and equipment they
manufacture within 3 years prior to and
3 years after the effective date of the
new energy conservation standards for
small electric motors.
Small electric motor manufacturers
described some of the current
regulations affecting their business
during manufacturer interviews.
Manufacturers mentioned the European
Union’s Restriction of Hazardous
Substances (RoHS) and the Registration,
Evaluation, Authorization and
Restriction of Chemical Substances
(REACH). Also, manufacturers indicated
both the International Electrotechnical
Commission (IEC) and the National
Electric Manufacturers Association
(NEMA) have implemented voluntary
standards for small electric motors.
Some manufacturers also indicated that
the Canadian Standards Association
(CSA) would likely to apply the same
standards set by DOE in the final rule.
In addition to the energy conservation
standards on small electric motor
products, several other DOE regulations
and pending regulations apply to other
products produced by the same
manufacturers. DOE recognizes that
each regulation has the potential to
impact manufacturers’ financial
operations. For a detail explanation and
results for the cumulative regulatory
burden, see chapter 12 of the TSD.
3. National Impact Analysis
Examining the national impact of
small electric motor standards required
DOE to assess a variety of factors. DOE
needed to assess the significance of the
projected amount of energy savings
flowing from an energy conservation
standard for small electric motors. It
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also had to ascertain the cumulative
benefits and costs that a standard would
be likely to bring. Finally, DOE analyzed
the projected employment impacts
resulting from a standard.
a. Significance of Energy Savings
To estimate the energy savings due to
revised and new energy efficiency
standards, DOE compared the energy
consumption of small electric motors
under the base case to energy
consumption of these products under
the trial standard levels. As described in
section IV.G, DOE used scaling relations
for energy use and equipment price to
extend its average energy use and price
for representative product classes
(analyzed in the LCC analysis) to all
product classes, and then developed
shipment-weighted sums to estimate the
national energy savings. As described in
section IV.G, DOE conducted separate
national impact analyses for polyphase
and capacitor-start (single-phase)
motors. Standards for CSIR and CSCR
motors are reflected in the capacitorstart energy savings and NPV results,
which account for the interchangeability
of CSIR and CSCR motors in many
applications.
Table V.22 through Table V.23 show
the forecasted national energy savings
through 2045 at each of the TSLs. The
tables also show the magnitude of the
energy savings if the savings are
discounted at rates of 7 and 3-percent.
Discounted energy savings represent a
policy perspective where energy savings
farther in the future are less significant
than energy savings closer to the
present. The energy savings
(undiscounted) due to possible
standards for polyphase small electric
motors range from 0.04 to 0.41 quads,
and the savings for capacitor-start small
electric motors range from 1.08 to 2.51
quads. Capacitor-start results are
presented as a range of values between
DOE’s two reference scenarios, which
correspond to 1) market share shifts in
response to standards complete by 2015
and 2) market shares in 2015 equal to
DOE’s estimated market shares in 2009,
and a shift over 10 years to the shares
forecast by DOE’s cross-elasticity model.
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assumptions. In general, however, they
do not dramatically change the
relationship between results at one TSL
with those at another TSL with the
relative economic savings and energy
savings of different TSLs remaining
roughly the same. The estimated overall
magnitude of savings, however, can
change substantially, which can be due
to a change in the estimated total
number of small electric motors in use.
Details of each scenario are available in
chapter 10 of the TSD and its
appendices, along with the national
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energy savings estimated for each
scenario.
For the shipments sensitivity analysis,
DOE analyzed the total energy savings
from capacitor-start motors in ‘‘low
CSCR’’ and ‘‘high CSCR’’ scenarios,
which model different market barriers to
adoption of CSCR motors. These
scenarios can have a significant impact
on the relative energy savings in
different TSLs. Table V.24 shows the
results for the national energy savings
(through 2045) in these scenarios.
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DOE conducted a wide range of
sensitivity analyses, including scenarios
demonstrating the effects of variation in
shipments, response of customers to
higher motor prices, the cost of
electricity due to a carbon cap and trade
regime, reactive power costs, and (for
capacitor-start motors) the dynamics of
CSIR/CSCR consumer choice. These
scenarios show a range of possible
outcomes from projected energy
conservation standards, and illustrate
the sensitivity of these results to
different input and modeling
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b. Net Present Value
The NPV analysis provides a measure
of the cumulative benefit or cost to the
Nation from customer costs and savings
from the proposed standards. In
accordance with the Office of
Management and Budget (OMB)’s
guidelines on regulatory analysis (OMB
Circular A–4, section E, September 17,
2003), DOE calculated NPV using both
a 7-percent and a 3-percent real
discount rate. The 7-percent rate is an
estimate of the average before-tax rate of
return to private capital in the U.S.
economy, and reflects the returns to real
estate and small business capital as well
as corporate capital. DOE used this
discount rate to approximate the
opportunity cost of capital in the private
sector, since recent OMB analysis has
found the average rate of return to
capital to be near this rate. DOE used
the 3-percent rate to capture the
potential effects of standards on private
consumption (e.g., through higher prices
for products and purchase of reduced
amounts of energy). This rate represents
the rate at which ‘‘society’’ discounts
future consumption flows to their
present value. This rate can be
approximated by the real rate of return
on long-term government debt (i.e.,
yield on Treasury notes minus annual
rate of change in the Consumer Price
Index), which has averaged about 3percent on a pre-tax basis for the last 30
years.
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The NPV was calculated using DOE’s
reference shipments forecast, which is
based on the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act scenario of the AEO
2009 forecast. In this scenario,
shipments are inelastic with respect to
motor price, and DOE used its calibrated
reference model for the market
dynamics of CSIR and CSCR motors.
DOE’s reference scenario also includes
100 percent of the cost or benefit from
changes in reactive power charges,
which are faced either by electricity
customers or by utilities (which then
include them in electricity rates). Table
V.25 and Table V.26 show the estimated
NPV at each of the TSLs for polyphase
and capacitor-start small electric
motors. For polyphase motors, the NPV
is positive at TSLs 1 through 5. For
capacitor-start motors, NPV is positive
at all TSLs except TSL 6. The latter TSL
corresponds with max-tech for both
CSIR and CSCR motors, which have
high installed costs and negative
lifecycle cost savings.
DOE notes that across motors, for
certain for TSLs, DOE estimates there
will be a net national savings or positive
NPV from the standard, even though a
majority of motor customers may face
life-cycle cost increases. Life-cycle cost
increases result from the large number
of small electric motors installed in
applications with very low operating
hours. The consumers of these motors
cannot recuperate the increased
equipment costs through decreased
electricity costs, thus experiencing life-
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cycle cost increases. On the other hand,
a substantial minority of motors run at
nearly all hours of the day and thus
obtain relatively large savings from the
standard.
DOE’s National Impacts Analysis
(NIA) estimates positive NPV based on
several assumptions. First, DOE
assumes a higher replacement rate for
the substantial minority of high
operating hour motors installed in
certain applications. Second, based on
EIA’s AEO forecast, DOE assumes that
electricity prices in the year 2015 will
be significantly lower than those later in
the analysis period. Because the NIA
takes into account purchases beyond the
year 2015 (in which consumers obtain
larger electricity cost savings), the
overall national savings from the
standard exceed the life-cycle cost
increases calculated. Third, DOE
accounts for reactive power differently
in the customer life-cycle cost and NIA
models. In life-cycle cost, 25 percent of
customers were assumed to face a direct
cost due to reactive power (a percentage
consistent with national data for
commercial and industrial customers).
By contrast, the NIA analysis includes
100 percent of the cost of reactive power
in order to reflect costs to utilities as
well as motor users. DOE seeks
comment on its use of these
assumptions in reaching a positive NPV
where the majority of consumers for
certain TSLs face life-cycle cost
increases.
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CSCR motors. Table V.27 and Table
V.28 show the NPV results in these
scenarios.
EP24NO09.035
shipments sensitivity analysis, DOE
analyzed the NPV from capacitor-start
motor standards in the ‘‘low CSCR’’ and
‘‘high CSCR’’ scenarios, which model
different market barriers to adoption of
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As discussed above, DOE conducted a
wide range of sensitivity analyses,
which can have a significant impact on
the relative net present value of
different trial standard levels. For the
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Future regulation of greenhouse gas
emissions would have a significant
impact on electricity prices and on the
annual operating cost of small electric
motors. DOE analyzed the NPV of trial
standard levels in such a carbon cap and
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trade scenario. Table V.29 and Table
V.30 show the NPV results in this
scenario. These results show that the
significantly higher electricity prices
(particularly late in the analysis period)
modeled under this scenario would
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significantly increase the NPV of each
TSL compared with the reference cases.
Chapter 10 of the NOPR TSD, along
with its appendices, presents NPV
results for the other sensitivity analyses
that DOE conducted.
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In accordance with the Process Rule,
section 4(d)(7)(vi), DOE estimated the
employment impacts of proposed
standards on the economy in general.
See 10 CFR part 430, subpart C,
appendix A. As discussed above, DOE
expects energy conservation standards
for small electric motors to reduce
energy bills for customers, with the
resulting net savings redirected to other
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forms of economic activity. These shifts
in spending and economic activity
could affect the demand for labor. To
estimate these effects, DOE used an
input/output model of the U.S. economy
(as described in section, IV.J). As shown
in Table V.31 and Table V.32, both of
which are detailed in chapter 14 of the
TSD, DOE estimates that net indirect
employment impacts from the proposed
standards are positive.
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Neither the BLS data set nor the
input/output model DOE uses includes
the quality or wage level of the jobs.
Taking into consideration these
concerns about employment impacts,
DOE concludes that the proposed small
electric motors standards are likely to
result in no appreciable job losses to the
Nation because direct employment
impacts are expected to be small, while
indirect employment impacts are
positive.
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4. Impact on Utility or Performance of
Products
As presented in section III.D.1.d of
this notice, DOE concluded that none of
the efficiency levels considered in this
notice reduces the utility or
performance of the small electric motors
under consideration in this rulemaking.
Furthermore, manufacturers of these
products currently offer small electric
motors that meet or exceed the proposed
standards or are capable of
manufacturing motors that meet or
exceed the proposed standards. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV))
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5. Impact of Any Lessening of
Competition
DOE considers any lessening of
competition likely to result from
standards. The Attorney General
determines the impact, if any, of any
lessening of competition likely to result
from a proposed standard, and transmits
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such determination to the Secretary,
together with an analysis of the nature
and extent of such impact. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (B)(ii))
To assist the Attorney General in
making such a determination, DOE has
provided the U.S. Department of Justice
(DOJ) with copies of this notice and the
TSD for review. DOE will consider
DOJ’s comments on the proposed rule in
preparing the final rule.
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve
Energy
An improvement in the energy
efficiency of small electric motors is
likely to improve the security of the
Nation’s energy system by reducing
overall demand for energy. Reduced
electricity demand also may improve
the reliability of the electricity system.
As a measure of this reduced demand,
DOE expects the proposed standard to
eliminate the need for the construction
of approximately 2.45 GW of generating
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capacity and, in 2030, to save an
amount of electricity greater than that
generated by nine 250 megawatt power
plants.
Enhanced energy efficiency also
produces environmental benefits. The
expected energy savings from the
proposed small electric motors
standards will reduce the emissions of
air pollutants and greenhouse gases
associated with electricity production.
Table V.33 and Table V.34 show the
cumulative CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions
reductions over the analysis period at
each TSL. The cumulative CO2, NOX,
and Hg emissions reductions from
polyphase motors range up to 23.8 Mt,
17.1 kt, and 0.13 tons, respectively, and
up to 127.0 Mt, 91.2 kt, and 0.53 tons,
respectively, from single-phase motors.
DOE reports annual CO2, NOX, and Hg
emissions reductions for each trial
standard level in the environmental
assessment, chapter 15 of the TSD.
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percent discount rate for each emission
type so that they can be compared
directly to other economic quantities
that DOE calculated for this proposed
rule (Table V.35 through Table V.42).
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reduced CO2 emissions valued at
approximately $5, $10, $20, $34, and
$56 (2008$), and has also presented the
domestic benefits derived using a value
of approximately $1 per metric ton. DOE
calculated the present value for each
TSL using both a 7-percent and 3-
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DOE estimated the cumulative NPV of
the monetized benefits associated with
CO2, NOX, and Hg emissions reductions
resulting from amended standards on
small electric motors. As discussed in
section IV.L, DOE estimated the
potential global benefits resulting from
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The NPV of the monetized benefits
associated with emissions reductions
can be viewed as a complement to the
NPV of the consumer savings calculated
for each TSL considered in this
rulemaking. Table V.43 presents the
NPV values for polyphase small electric
motors that would result if DOE were to
apply the low- and high-end estimates
of the potential benefits resulting from
reduced CO2, NOX and Hg emissions to
the NPV of consumer savings calculated
for each TSL considered in this
rulemaking, at both a 7- and 3-percent
discount rate. Table V.44 presents the
same NPV values for capacitor-start
small electric motors. Table V.45
presents the NPV values for polyphase
small electric motors that would result
if DOE were to apply the low- and highend estimates of the potential global
benefits resulting from reduced CO2
emissions to the NPV of consumer
savings calculated for each TSL
considered in this rulemaking, at both a
7- and 3-percent discount rate. Table
V.46 presents the same NPV values for
capacitor-start small electric motors. For
CO2, only the range of global benefit
values are used, $5 and $56 in 2008$.
Although comparing the value of
consumer savings to the values of
emission reductions provides a valuable
perspective, please note the following:
(1) The national consumer savings are
domestic U.S. consumer monetary
savings found in market transactions
while the values of emission reductions
are based on ranges of estimates of
imputed marginal social costs, which, in
the case of CO2, are meant to reflect
global benefits; and (2) the assessments
of consumer savings and emissionrelated benefits are performed with
different computer models, leading to
different time frames for the analyses
The present value of national consumer
savings is measured for the period
2015–2065 (31 years from 2015 to 2045
inclusive, plus the longest lifetime of
the equipment shipped in the 31st year).
However, the timeframes of the benefits
associated with the emission reductions
differ. For example, the value of CO2
emission reductions is meant to reflect
the present value of all future climate
related impacts, even those beyond
2065.
DOE seeks comment on the above
presentation of NPV values and on the
consideration of GHG emissions in
future energy efficiency standards
rulemakings, including alternative
methodological approaches to including
GHG emissions in its analysis. More
specifically, DOE seeks comment on
both how it integrates monetized GHG
emissions or Social Cost of Carbon
values, as well as other monetized
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benefits or costs, into its analysis and
models, and also on suggested
alternatives to the current approach.
7. Other Factors
The Secretary of Energy, in
determining whether a standard is
economically justified, may consider
any other factors that the Secretary
deems to be relevant. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI))) The Secretary has
decided that harmonization with
medium motors was another relevant
factor to consider.
California utilities expressed concern
in their joint comments over the
possible differences in energy efficiency
standards between medium electric
motors and small electric motors. They
believe that if a significantly lower
efficiency standard is set for those small
electric motors that share overlapping
horsepower ratings with medium
motors, the medium motor standard
would be rendered meaningless, since
there would be a risk that demand
would shift toward using less efficient
(and presumably cheaper) small electric
motors instead. The utilities
recommended that the new energy
efficiency standards for small electric
motors be comparable to the medium
motor standards in order to avoid
‘‘gaming of the regulatory system.’’
(Joint Comment, No. 12 at p. 3)
DOE appreciates this comment and
considered it when proposing new
standards for small electric motors in
this notice. Although harmonization is
not a specifically enumerated factor that
DOE must consider under EPCA, it was
an additional factor considered as
permitted by the statute. DOE agrees
with the California utilities and
recognizes that the harmonization of
polyphase small electric motors with
medium electric motors is an added
benefit of the proposed standard level.
C. Proposed Standard
EPCA 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A),
specifies that any new or amended
energy conservation standard for any
type (or class) of covered product shall
be designed to achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that
the Secretary determines is
technologically feasible and
economically justified. In determining
whether a standard is economically
justified, the Secretary must determine
whether the benefits of the standard
exceed its burdens. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)) The new or amended
standard must also ‘‘result in significant
conservation of energy.’’ (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(3)(B))
DOE developed TSLs independently
for polyphase and capacitor-start small
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electric motors. For the capacitor-start
motor categories, DOE developed TSLs
as a combination of CSIR and CSCR
efficiency levels. DOE combined CSCR
and CSIR motors into a single set of
TSLs because motors in these categories
may be used interchangeably in most
applications. As a result of this
interchangeability, the standard level for
CSIR motors affects the demand for
CSCR motors, and vice versa. DOE
considered 7 TSLs for polyphase motors
and 8 TSLs for capacitor start motors.
In selecting the proposed energy
conservation standards for both classes
of small electric motors for
consideration in today’s notice of
proposed rulemaking, DOE started by
examining the standard levels with the
highest energy savings, and determined
whether those levels were economically
justified. If DOE found those levels not
to be justified, DOE considered TSLs
sequentially lower in energy savings
until it reached the level with the
greatest energy savings that was both
technologically feasible and
economically justified. For polyphase
small electric motors, the standard level
with the highest energy savings
corresponded to the max-tech level.
However, due to the interaction of the
CSIR and CSCR markets and the
efficiency differences between the two
products, the highest energy savings
level for capacitor-start motors does not
necessarily correspond to the ‘‘maxtech’’ level. With certain combinations
of efficiency levels (or TSLs) for the two
motor categories it becomes
economically beneficial to purchase a
CSCR motor instead of a CSIR motor.
This migration can cause the energy
savings for these TSLs to be higher than
the TSLs corresponding to ‘‘max-tech’’
for both motor categories.
To aid the reader as DOE discusses
the benefits and/or burdens of each TSL,
Table V.47, Table V.48 and Table V.49,
collectively, present summaries of
quantitative analysis results for each
TSL for polyphase and capacitor-start
small electric motors, based on the
assumptions and methodology
discussed above. These tables present
the results or, in some cases, a range of
results, for each TSL. The range of
values reported in these tables for
industry impacts represents the results
for the different markup scenarios that
DOE used to estimate manufacturer
impacts as shown in section IV.I.
Additional quantitative results,
including the expected migration of
shipments between CSIR and CSCR
motors, are provided in section IV.G.
In addition to the quantitative results,
DOE also considers other burdens and
benefits that affect economic
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justification. These include pending
standards for medium motors as a result
of EISA 2007.
1. Polyphase Small Electric Motors
Table V.47 presents a summary of the
quantitative analysis results for each
TSL for polyphase small electric motors.
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First, DOE considered TSL 7, the most
efficient level for polyphase small
electric motors. TSL 7 would save an
estimated 0.41 quads of energy through
2045, an amount DOE considers
significant. Discounted at 7-percent, the
projected energy savings through 2045
would be 0.10 quads. For the Nation as
a whole, DOE projects that TSL 7 would
result in a net decrease of $6.38 billion
in NPV, using a discount rate of
7-percent. The emissions reductions at
TSL 7 are 23.8 Mt of CO2, up to 17.1 kt
of NOX, and up to 0.130 tons of Hg.
These reductions have a value of up to
$493 million for CO2, $11.6 million for
NOX, and $1.102 million for Hg, at a
discount rate of 7-percent. At a $20 per
ton value for the social cost of carbon,
the estimated monetized benefit of CO2
emissions reductions is $170 million at
a discount rate of 7-percent. DOE also
estimates that at TSL 7, total electric
generating capacity in 2030 will
decrease compared to the base case by
0.48 GW.
At TSL 7, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing equipment in 2015
will experience an increase in LCC of
$818 compared to the baseline. DOE
estimates the fraction of customers
experiencing LCC increases will be 98.1
percent. The median PBP for the average
polyphase small electric motor customer
at TSL 7, 55.1 years, is projected to be
substantially longer than the mean
lifetime of the equipment. When all
polyphase product classes are
considered and weighted by shipments,
DOE estimates that small electric motor
customers experience slightly lower
increases in LCC of $778.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $59.7
million to an increase of $149 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 7, DOE recognizes the
risk of very large negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 7 could result in a net loss of 93.1
percent in INPV to the polyphase small
motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their polyphase small electric motors.
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After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 7, the Secretary has
reached the following initial conclusion:
At TSL 7, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), would be outweighed
by the economic burden of a net cost to
the Nation (over 30 years), the economic
burden to customers (as indicated by the
large increase in life-cycle cost) and the
potentially large reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has tentatively concluded that trial
standard level 7 is not economically
justified.
DOE then considered TSL 6, which
would likely save an estimated 0.36
quads of energy through 2045, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Discounted at 7-percent, the projected
energy savings through 2045 would be
0.09 quads. For the Nation as a whole,
DOE projects that TSL 6 would result in
a net decrease of $290 million in NPV,
using a discount rate of 7-percent. The
estimated emissions reductions at TSL 6
are 20.5 Mt of CO2, up to 14.7 kt of NOX,
and up to 0.112 tons of Hg. These
reductions have a value of up to $424
million for CO2, $10.0 million for NOX,
and $0.947 for Hg, at a discount rate of
7-percent. At a $20 per ton value for the
social cost of carbon, the estimated
monetized benefit of CO2 emissions
reductions is $146 million at a discount
rate of 7-percent. Total electric
generating capacity in 2030 is estimated
to decrease compared to the base case
by 0.41 GW under TSL 6.
At TSL 6, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing equipment in 2015
will experience an increase in LCC of
$85 compared to the baseline. DOE
estimates the fraction of customers
experiencing LCC increases will be 82
percent. The median PBP for the average
polyphase small electric motor customer
at TSL 6, 18.9 years, is projected to be
substantially longer than the mean
lifetime of the equipment. When all
polyphase product classes are
considered and weighted by shipments,
DOE estimates that small electric motor
customers experience slightly lower
increases in LCC of $54.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $13.1
million to an increase of $15.9 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 6, DOE recognizes the
risk of very large negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
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reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 6 could result in a net loss of 20.4
percent in INPV to the polyphase small
motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their polyphase small electric motors.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 6, the Secretary has
reached the following initial conclusion:
At TSL 6, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), would be outweighed
by the economic burden of a net cost to
the Nation (over 30 years), the economic
burden to consumers (as indicated by
the increased life-cycle cost), and the
potential reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has tentatively concluded that trial
standard level 6 is not economically
justified.
DOE then considered TSL 5, which
provides for polyphase small electric
motors the maximum efficiency level
that the analysis showed to have
positive NPV for the Nation. TSL 5
would likely save an estimated 0.33
quads of energy through 2045, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Discounted at 7-percent, the projected
energy savings through 2045 would be
0.08 quads. For the Nation as a whole,
DOE projects that TSL 5 would result in
a net increase of $60 million in NPV,
using a discount rate of 7-percent. The
estimated emissions reductions at TSL 5
are 18.6 Mt of CO2, up to 13.3 kt of NOX,
and up to 0.102 tons of Hg. These
reductions have a value of up to $385
million for CO2, $9.1 million for NOX,
and $0.861 million for Hg, at a discount
rate of 7-percent. At a $20 per ton value
for the social cost of carbon, the
estimated benefits of CO2 emissions
reductions is $133 million at a discount
rate of 7-percent. Total electric
generating capacity in 2030 is estimated
to decrease compared to the base case
by 0.37 GW under TSL 5.
At TSL 5, DOE projects that the
average polyphase small electric motor
customer purchasing the equipment in
2015 will experience an increase in LCC
of $38 compared to the baseline
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representative unit for analysis (1 hp, 4
pole polyphase motor). This
corresponds to approximately a 2.9
percent increase in average LCC. Based
on this analysis, DOE estimates that
approximately 71 percent of customers
would experience LCC increases and
that the median PBP would be 13.8
years, which is longer than the mean
lifetime of the equipment. However, in
consideration of the relatively small
percentage increase in LCC at TSL 5,
DOE examined sensitivity analyses to
assess the likelihood of consumers in
fact experiencing significant LCC
increases. These included calculating a
shipment-weighted LCC savings and
examining the impacts on consumers
who purchase motors after the year
2015.
At TSL 5, when accounting for the
full-range of horsepowers and pole
configurations of polyphase motors, the
average LCC increase is reduced to $10.
This corresponds to approximately 54.5
percent of customers experiencing
greater than 2-percent increases. The
remaining 44 percent of customers,
those with greater operating hours,
experience either very small losses (less
than 2-percent) or net savings.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $8.83
million to an increase of $10.9 million.
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The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 5, DOE recognizes the
risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. If
the high end of the range of impacts is
reached, TSL 5 could result in a net loss
of 13.8 percent in INPV to the polyphase
small motor industry.
Trial standard level 5 has other
advantages that are not directly
economic. This level is approximately
harmonized with the efficiency level for
medium motors to be implemented in
2010 which requires four-pole, 1 hp
polyphase motors to be at least 85.5%
efficient. Since many—but not all—
three digit frame size polyphase motors
of this size can also be used in two-digit
frames with minimal adjustment, DOE
believes that there is a benefit to
harmonizing small polyphase and
medium polyphase motor efficiency
standards in this size range. In
particular, DOE does not believe the
design changes necessary for TSL 5
would force all manufacturers to
significantly redesign all of their
polyphase small electric motors or their
production processes. Therefore, DOE
believes manufacturers are not at a
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significant risk to experience highly
negative impacts.
After considering the analysis and the
benefits and burdens of trial standard
level 5, the Secretary has reached the
following tentative conclusion: Trial
standard level 5 offers the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that is
technologically feasible and
economically justified, and will result
in significant conservation of energy.
The Secretary has reached the initial
conclusion that the benefits of energy
savings, emissions reductions (both in
physical reductions and the monetized
value of those reductions), the positive
net economic savings and benefits of
harmonization with the existing
medium polyphase electric motor
standards outweigh the potential
reduction in INPV for manufacturers
and the economic burden on consumers,
which is relatively small on average.
Therefore, DOE today proposes to adopt
the energy conservation standards for
polyphase small electric motors at trial
standard level 5.
2. Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors
Table V.48 and Table V.49 present a
summary of the quantitative analysis
results for each TSL for capacitor-start
small electric motors.
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First, DOE considered TSL 8, the
combination of CSIR and CSCR
efficiency levels generating the greatest
national energy savings. TSL 8 would
likely save an estimated 2.51 to 2.61
quads of energy through 2045, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Discounted at 7-percent, the projected
energy savings through 2045 would be
0.59 to 0.64 quads. For the Nation as a
whole, DOE projects that TSL 8 would
result in a net benefit of $290 million to
$4.09 billion in NPV, using a discount
rate of 7-percent. The estimated
emissions reductions at TSL 8 are up to
127.0 Mt of CO2, up to 91.2 kt of NOX,
and up to 0.529 tons of Hg. These
reductions have a value of up to $2,715
million for CO2, $67.7 million for NOX,
and $5.14 million for Hg, at a discount
rate of 7-percent. At a $20 per ton
(2008$) value for the social cost of
carbon, the estimated benefits of CO2
emissions reductions is $910 to $938
million at a discount rate of 7-percent.
DOE also estimates that at TSL 8, total
electric generating capacity in 2030 will
decrease compared to the base case by
2.37 to 2.44 GW.
At TSL 8, DOE projects that for the
average customer, compared to the
baseline, the LCC of a CSIR and CSCR
motor will increase by $346 and $47,
respectively. At TSL 8, DOE estimates
the fraction of customers experiencing
LCC increases will be 64 percent for
CSIR motors and 72.6 percent for CSCR
motors. The median PBP for the average
capacitor-start small electric motor
customers at TSL 8, 11.2 years for CSIR
motors and 12.1 years for CSCR motors,
is projected to be substantially longer
than the mean lifetime of the
equipment. DOE also considered market
migration between CSIR and CSCR users
and how that would affect the LCC of
CSIR users at TSL 8. When considering
that some CSIR consumers will choose
to purchase CSCR motors, the CSIR
customers still experience on average
LCC savings of approximately $20. This
corresponds to 58 percent of CSIR
consumers experiencing LCC increases.
DOE also examined LCC savings for a
sensitivity case where the calculation
was performed in the middle of the
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forecast period (i.e., the year 2030), with
a full distribution of motor sizes and
speeds and where the full cost of
reactive power was included. Under
these conditions, for the average
customer, the LCC of a CSIR and CSCR
motor will increase by $315 and
decrease by $34, respectively, compared
to the baseline. DOE also examined
what fraction of motors would have
changes in LCC that are greater than
2-percent. At TSL 8, DOE estimates the
fraction of customers experiencing LCC
increases of greater than 2-percent will
be 53.0 percent for CSIR motors and
46.1 percent for CSCR motors.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $53.3
million to an increase of $56.7 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 8, DOE recognizes the
risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 8 could result in a net loss of 19.1
percent in INPV to the capacitor-start
small motor industry. DOE believes
manufacturers would likely have a more
difficult time maintaining current gross
margin levels with larger increases in
manufacturing production costs, as
standards increase the need for capital
conversion costs, equipment retooling,
and increased research and
development spending. Specifically, at
this TSL, the majority of manufacturers
would need to significantly redesign all
of their capacitor-start small electric
motors.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 8, the Secretary has
reached the following initial conclusion:
At TSL 8, the benefits of energy savings,
emissions reductions (both in physical
reductions and the monetized value of
those reductions), and the positive net
economic savings (over 30 years) would
be outweighed by the economic burden
on existing CSCR customers and CSIR
customers who do not migrate from
CSIR to CSCR motors (as indicated by
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the large increase in LCC) and the
potentially large reduction in INPV for
manufacturers resulting from large
conversion costs and reduced gross
margins. Consequently, the Secretary
has tentatively concluded that trial
standard level 8 is not economically
justified.
DOE then considered TSL 7, which
would likely save an estimated 2.10 to
2.13 quads of energy through 2045, an
amount DOE considers significant.
Discounted at 7-percent, the projected
energy savings through 2045 would be
0.51 to 0.52 quads. For the Nation as a
whole, DOE projects that TSL 7 would
result in a net benefit of $1.47 to $5.67
billion in NPV, using a discount rate of
7-percent. The estimated emissions
reductions at TSL 7 are up to 110.0 Mt
of CO2, up to 79.0 kt of NOX, and up to
0.459 tons of Hg. These reductions have
a value of up to $2,352 million for CO2,
$58.6 million for NOX, and $4.45
million for Hg, at a discount rate of 7percent. At a $20 per ton value for the
social cost of carbon, the estimated
benefits of CO2 emissions reductions is
$785 to $812 million at a discount rate
of 7-percent. Total electric generating
capacity in 2030 is estimated to
decrease compared to the base case by
2.05 to 2.12 GW under TSL 7.
At TSL 7, DOE projects that for the
average customer, the LCC of capacitorstart small electric motors will increase
by $346 for CSIR motors and decrease
by $28 for CSCR motors compared to the
baseline. At TSL 7, DOE estimates the
fraction of CSIR customers experiencing
LCC increases will be 64 percent, but
only 46.3 percent for CSCR motor
customers. However, DOE believes that
at this TSL, which is the ‘‘max-tech’’
level for CSIR motors, the relative
difference in cost between a CSIR motor
and a CSCR motor becomes substantial
and will have large effects on customers.
Rather than buy an expensive CSIR
motor, those customers whose
applications permit them to, will
purchase a CSCR motor with the same
number of poles and horsepower
ratings. DOE is unsure of the magnitude
of the migration of CSIR users to CSCR
users, but believes that the market share
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of CSCR motors could grow from 5
percent to 80 to 99 percent once
standards are effective. This would
mean that the high LCC increases that
CSIR motor users would experience
would be mitigated and many of those
users would switch to CSCR motors
with a decrease in LCC on average.
When taking into account this potential
migration, the average CSIR customer
experiences net LCC savings of $49.
Even though CSIR motors with
switching may result in a net LCC
savings, DOE estimates that
approximately 51 percent of CSIR
customers would still experience an
LCC increase.
DOE also examined LCC savings for a
sensitivity case where the calculation
was performed in the middle of the
forecast period (i.e., the year 2030), with
a full distribution of motor sizes and
speeds and where the full cost of
reactive power was included. Under
these conditions, for the average
customer, compared to the baseline, the
LCC of a CSIR and CSCR motor will
increase by $315 and decrease by $89,
respectively. DOE also examined what
fraction of motors would have changes
in LCC that are greater than 2-percent.
At TSL 8, DOE estimates the fraction of
customers experiencing LCC increases
of greater than 2-percent will be 53.0
percent for CSIR motors and 18.7
percent for CSCR motors.
The economics literature provides a
wide-ranging discussion of how
consumers trade-off upfront costs and
energy savings in the absence of
government intervention. Much of this
literature attempts to explain why
consumers appear to undervalue energy
efficiency improvements. This
undervaluation suggests that regulation
that promotes energy efficiency can
produce significant net private gains (as
well as producing social gains by, for
example, reducing pollution). There is
evidence that consumers undervalue
future energy savings as a result of (1)
a lack of information, (2) a lack of
sufficient savings to warrant delaying or
altering purchases (e.g., an inefficient
ventilation fan in a new building or the
delayed replacement of a water pump),
(3) inconsistent (e.g., excessive shortterm) weighting of future energy cost
savings relative to available returns on
other investments, (4) computational or
other difficulties associated with the
evaluation of relevant tradeoffs, and (5)
a divergence in incentives (e.g., renter
versus owner; builder v. purchaser).
Other literature indicates that with less
than perfect foresight and a high degree
of uncertainty about the future,
consumers may tradeoff these types of
investments at a higher than expected
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rate between current consumption and
uncertain future energy cost savings.
While DOE is not prepared at present to
provide a fuller quantifiable framework
for this discussion, DOE seeks
comments on how to assess these
possibilities.
The projected change in industry
value ranges from a decrease of $35.8
million to an increase of $29.8 million.
The impacts are driven primarily by the
assumptions regarding the ability to
pass on larger increases in MPCs to the
customer. At TSL 7, DOE recognizes the
risk of negative impacts if
manufacturers’ expectations about
reduced profit margins are realized. In
particular, if the high end of the range
of impacts is reached as DOE expects,
TSL 7 could result in a net loss of 12.9
percent in INPV to the capacitor-start
small motor industry. At this TSL, the
combination of efficiency levels could
cause a migration from CSIR motors to
CSCR motors; however, DOE believes
that the capital conversion costs,
equipment retooling and R&D spending
associated with this migration would
not be severe.
After carefully considering the
analysis and weighing the benefits and
burdens of TSL 7, the Secretary has
reached the following initial conclusion:
Trial standard level 7 offers the
maximum improvement in energy
efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified and
will result in significant conservation of
energy. The Secretary has reached the
initial conclusion that the benefits of
energy savings, emissions reductions
(both in physical reductions and the
monetized value of those reductions),
the positive net economic savings to the
Nation (over 30 years) and the
harmonization of efficiency
requirements between CSIR and CSCR
motors would outweigh the potential
reduction in INPV for manufacturers
and the economic burden on those CSIR
customers who are unable to switch to
CSCR motors. Further, benefits from
carbon dioxide reductions (at a central
value of $20) would increase NPV by
between $785 million and $812 million
(2008$) at a 7% discount rate and
between $2.12 billion and $2.20 billion
at a 3% discount rate. These benefits
from carbon dioxide emission
reductions, when considered in
conjunction with the consumer savings
NPV and other factors described above
support DOE’s tentative conclusion that
trial standard level 7 is economically
justified. Therefore, DOE today proposes
to adopt the energy conservation
standards for capacitor-start small
electric motors at trial standard level 7.
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However, DOE recognizes that this
conclusion assumes that CSIR
customers can and will migrate to CSCR
motors at this level. This shift in motor
usage and the magnitude of its impacts
are based on several assumptions made
throughout the analyses, including: the
costs associated with purchasing motors
for space-constrained applications, the
portion of space-constrained
applications in the market, shipments in
each product class, the scaling of motor
losses and prices between product
classes, and the mathematical form of
DOE’s cross-elasticity model. DOE
requests comment on these assumptions
and the combined effect that they may
have on the uncertainties in DOE’s
forecasts. DOE also invites comment on
what migration levels would be
expected at TSL 7, and whether it
should adopt a different TSL for
capacitor-start small electric motors
given the range of uncertainty in its
forecasts.
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory
Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
Section 1(b)(1) of Executive Order
12866, ‘‘Regulatory Planning and
Review,’’ 58 FR 51735 (October 4, 1993),
requires each agency to identify the
problem the agency intends to address
that warrants new agency action
(including, where applicable, the
failures of private markets or public
institutions), as well as assess the
significance of that problem, to enable
assessment of whether any new
regulation is warranted. EPCA requires
DOE to establish standards for the small
motors covered in today’s rulemaking,
In addition, today’s proposed standards
also address the following:
(1) Misplaced incentives, which
separate responsibility for selecting
equipment and for paying their
operating costs; and (2) Lack of
consumer information and/or
information processing capability about
energy efficiency opportunities. The
market for small electric motors is
dominated by the presence and actions
of OEMs, who sell small electric motors
to end-users as a component of a larger
piece of equipment. There is a very large
diversity of equipment types that use
small electric motors and the market for
any particular type of equipment may be
very small. Consumers lack information
and choice regarding the motor
component. OEMs and consumers may
be more concerned with other aspects of
the application system than with
selecting the most cost effective motor
for the end user. Space constraints may
also restrict the ability of the consumer
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Monday through Friday, except Federal
holidays.
The RIA is contained in the TSD
prepared for the rulemaking. The RIA
consists of (1) A statement of the
problem addressed by this regulation
and the mandate for government action,
(2) a description and analysis of the
feasible policy alternatives to this
regulation, (3) a quantitative comparison
of the impacts of the alternatives, and
(4) the national economic impacts of the
proposed standards.
The RIA calculates the effects of
feasible policy alternatives to small
electric motors standards, and provides
a quantitative comparison of the
impacts of the alternatives. DOE
evaluated each alternative in terms of its
ability to achieve significant energy
savings at reasonable costs, and
compared it to the effectiveness of the
proposed rule. DOE analyzed these
alternatives using a series of regulatory
scenarios as inputs to the NES/
shipments model for small electric
motors, which it modified to allow
inputs for these measures.
DOE identified the following major
policy alternatives for achieving
increased energy efficiency in small
electric motors:
• No new regulatory action
• Financial incentives
fl Tax credits
fl Rebates
• Voluntary energy efficiency targets
• Bulk government purchases
• The proposed approach (performance
standards)
DOE evaluated each alternative in
terms of its ability to achieve significant
energy savings at reasonable costs (see
Table IV.1), and compared it to the
effectiveness of the proposed rule.
The net present value amounts shown
in Table VI.1 refer to the NPV for
consumers. The costs to the government
of each policy (such as rebates or tax
credits) are not included in the costs for
the NPV since, on balance, consumers
are both paying for (through taxes) and
receiving the benefits of the payments.
For each of the policy alternatives other
than standards, Table VI.1 shows the
energy savings and NPV in the case
where the CSIR and CSCR market share
shift in response to the policy prior to
2015, or immediately in 2015 when
compliance with the standards would
be required. The NES and NPV in the
case of the proposed standard are shown
as a range between this scenario and a
scenario in which the market shift takes
ten years to complete, and begins in
2015 . The following paragraphs discuss
each of the policy alternatives listed in
Table VI.1. (See TSD, RIA.)
No new regulatory action. The case in
which no regulatory action is taken with
regard to small electric motors
constitutes the ‘‘base case’’ (or ‘‘No
Action’’) scenario. In this case, between
2015 and 2045, capacitor-start small
electric motors purchased in or after
2015 are expected to consume 3.65
quads of primary energy (in the form of
losses), while polyphase small electric
motors purchased in or after 2015 are
expected to consume 0.90 quads of
primary energy. Since this is the base
case, energy savings and NPV are zero
by definition.
Rebates. DOE evaluated the possible
effect of a rebate consistent with current
motor rebate practices in the promotion
of premium efficiency motors which
cover a portion of the incremental price
difference between equipment meeting
baseline efficiency levels and
equipment meeting improved efficiency
requirements. The current average
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to replace the motor with a more
efficient model.
In addition, DOE has determined that
today’s regulatory action is a
‘‘significant regulatory action’’ under
section 3(f)(1) of Executive Order 12866.
Accordingly, section 6(a)(3) of the
Executive Order required that DOE
prepare a regulatory impact analysis
(RIA) on today’s proposed rule and that
the Office of Information and Regulatory
Affairs (OIRA) in the OMB review this
proposed rule. DOE presented to OIRA
for review the draft proposed rule and
other documents prepared for this
rulemaking, including the RIA, and has
included these documents in the
rulemaking record. They are available
for public review in the Resource Room
of DOE’s Building Technologies
Program, 950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite
600, Washington, DC 20024, (202) 586–
2945, between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m.,
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motor rebate for an efficient 1
horsepower motor is approximately $25,
and DOE scaled this rebate to be
approximately proportional to the retail
price of the motor. DOE evaluated
rebates targeting TSL 5 for polyphase
motors, and evaluated several target
efficiency levels for capacitor-start
motors (including TSLs 7, 5, and 2).
Existing rebate programs for polyphase
motors target three-digit frame series
motors with efficiencies equivalent to
TSL 5 for small polyphase motors. At
rebate efficiency levels corresponding to
TSL 7 for capacitor-start motors, DOE
estimates that rebates consistent with
current practice would have an
insignificant impact on increasing the
market share of CSIR motors. For this
case, meeting the target level requires
the purchase of a motor with a very high
average first cost because for TSL 7,
CSIR motors are at the maximum
technologically feasible efficiency. As a
result, rebates targeting TSLs 5 and 2
have larger energy savings. TSLs 7, 5,
and 2 correspond to the same efficiency
level (EL 3) for CSCR motors.
For rebate programs TSL 5 for both
polyphase and capacitor start motors,
DOE estimates the market share of
equipment meeting the energy
efficiency levels targeted would increase
from 0 percent to 0.4 percent for
polyphase motors, from 0 percent to 0.3
percent for capacitor-start, inductionrun motors, and from 21.0 to 29.5
percent for capacitor-start, capacitor-run
motors. DOE assumed the impact of this
policy would be to permanently
transform the market so that the
shipment-weighted efficiency gain seen
in the first year of the program would
be maintained throughout the forecast
period. At the estimated participation
rates, the rebates would provide 0.07
quads of national energy savings and an
NPV of $0.25 billion (at a 7-percent
discount rate).
DOE found that a rebate targeting the
efficiency levels corresponding to TSL 2
for capacitor-start motors would result
in larger energy savings than one
targeting the efficiency levels of TSL 5
or TSL 7. Such rebates would increase
the market share among capacitor-start
induction-run motors meeting the
efficiency level corresponding to TSL 2
from 3.0 percent to 13.2 percent.
Combined with unchanged polyphase
motor rebates targeting TSL 5, DOE
estimates these rebates would provide
0.19 quads of national energy savings
and an NPV of $0.52 billion (at a 7percent discount rate).
DOE also analyzed an alternative
rebate program for capacitor-start
motors which would give rebates of
twice the value of the previously-
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analyzed rebate for CSCR motors which
meet the requirements of TSL 7 (a $50
rebate for a 1 HP motor, scaled to other
product classes), and no rebates for
CSIR motors. DOE estimates that these
rebates would have no effect on the
efficiency distribution of capacitor-start
induction-run motors, and would
increase the market share among
capacitor-start capacitor-run motors
meeting TSL 7 by 23.9 percent to 44.9
percent. In addition, DOE estimates that
this rebate would increase shipments of
capacitor-start capacitor-run motors
over the period from 2015 to 2045 by 5.7
million to 12.6 million. Combined with
unchanged polyphase motor rebates at
TSL 5, DOE estimates these rebates
would provide 0.13 quads of national
energy savings and an NPV of $0.43
billion (at a 7-percent discount rate).
Although DOE estimates that rebates
will provide national benefits, they are
much smaller than the benefits resulting
from national performance standards.
Thus, DOE rejected rebates as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
Consumer Tax Credits. If customers
were offered a tax credit equivalent to
the amount mentioned above for
rebates, DOE’s research suggests that the
number of customers buying a small
electric motor that would take
advantage of the tax credit would be
approximately 60 percent of the number
that would take advantage of rebates.
Thus, as a result of the tax credit, the
percentage of customers purchasing the
products with efficiencies
corresponding to TSL 5 for both
polyphase and capacitor-start motors
would increase by 0.1 percent to 0.1
percent for polyphase motors, by 0.2
percent to 0.2 percent for capacitor-start,
induction-run motors, and by 5.1
percent to 26.1 percent for capacitorstart, capacitor-run motors. DOE
assumed the impact of this policy
would be to permanently transform the
market so that the shipment-weighted
efficiency gain seen in the first year of
the program would be maintained
throughout the forecast period. DOE
estimated that tax credits would yield a
fraction of the benefits that rebates
would provide. DOE rejected rebates, as
a policy alternative to national
performance standards, because the
benefits that rebates provide are much
smaller than those resulting from
performance standards. Thus, because
consumer tax credits provide even
smaller benefits than rebates, DOE also
rejected consumer tax credits as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
Manufacturer Tax Credits. DOE
believes even smaller benefits would
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result from availability of a
manufacturer tax credit program that
would effectively result in a lower price
to the consumer by an amount that
covers part of the incremental price
difference between products meeting
baseline efficiency levels and those
meeting trial standard level 5 for
polyphase small electric motors and
trial standard level 5 for capacitor-start
small electric motors. Because these tax
credits would go to manufacturers
instead of customers, DOE believes that
fewer customers would be aware of this
program relative to a consumer tax
credit program. DOE assumes that 50
percent of the customers who would
take advantage of consumer tax credits
would buy more-efficient products
offered through a manufacturer tax
credit program. Thus, as a result of the
manufacturer tax credit, the percentage
of customers purchasing the moreefficient products would increase by
0.04 percent to 0.04 percent (i.e., 50
percent of the impact of consumer tax
credits) for polyphase motors, by 0.1
percent to 0.1 percent for capacitor-start,
induction-run motors, and by 2.6
percent to 23.6 percent for capacitorstart, capacitor-run motors.
DOE assumed the impact of this
policy would be to permanently
transform the market so that the
shipment-weighted efficiency gain seen
in the first year of the program will be
maintained throughout the forecast
period. DOE estimated that
manufacturer tax credits would yield a
fraction of the benefits that consumer
tax credits would provide. DOE rejected
consumer tax credits as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards because the benefits that
consumer tax credits provide are much
smaller than those resulting from
performance standards. Thus, because
manufacturer tax credits provide even
smaller benefits than consumer tax
credits, DOE also rejected manufacturer
tax credits as a policy alternative to
national performance standards.
Voluntary Energy-Efficiency Targets.
There are no current federal or industry
marketing efforts to increase the use of
efficient small electric motors which
meet the requirements of trial standard
level 5 for polyphase small electric
motors or trial standard level 7 for
capacitor-start small electric motors.
NEMA and the Consortium for Energy
Efficiency promote ‘‘NEMA Premium’’
efficient three-digit frame series motors,
and DOE analyzed this program as a
model for the market effects of a similar
program for small electric motors. DOE
evaluated the potential impacts of such
a program that would encourage
purchase of products meeting the trial
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standard level efficiency levels. DOE
modeled the voluntary efficiency
program based on this scenario and
assumed that the resulting shipmentweighted efficiency gain would be
maintained throughout the forecast
period. DOE estimated that the
enhanced effectiveness of voluntary
energy-efficiency targets would provide
0.82 quads of national energy savings
and an NPV of $0.35 billion (at a 7percent discount rate). Although this
would provide national benefits, they
are much smaller than the benefits
resulting from national performance
standards. Thus, DOE rejected use of
voluntary energy-efficiency targets as a
policy alternative to national
performance standards.
Bulk Government Purchases. Under
this policy alternative, the government
sector would be encouraged to purchase
increased amounts of polyphase
equipment that meet the efficiency
levels in trial standard level 5 and
capacitor-start equipment that meets the
efficiency levels in trial standard level
7. Federal, State, and local government
agencies could administer such a
program. At the Federal level, this
would be an enhancement to the
existing Federal Energy Management
Program (FEMP). DOE modeled this
program by assuming an increase in
installation of equipment meeting the
efficiency levels of the target standard
levels among the commercial and public
buildings and operations which are run
by government agencies. DOE estimated
that bulk government purchases would
provide 0.34 quads of national energy
savings and an NPV of ¥$0.01 billion
(at a 7-percent discount rate), benefits
which are much smaller than those
estimated for national performance
standards. DOE rejected bulk
government purchases as a policy
alternative to national performance
standards.
National Performance Standards.
DOE proposes to adopt the efficiency
levels listed in section VI.C. As
indicated in the paragraphs above, none
of the alternatives DOE examined would
save as much energy as today’s
proposed standards. Also, several of the
alternatives would require new enabling
legislation, since authority to carry out
those alternatives does not presently
exist.
B. Review Under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.) requires preparation
of an initial regulatory flexibility
analysis for any rule that by law must
be proposed for public comment, unless
the agency certifies that the rule, if
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promulgated, will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. As required by
Executive Order 13272, ‘‘Proper
Consideration of Small Entities in
Agency Rulemaking,’’ 67 FR 53461
(August 16, 2002), DOE published
procedures and policies on February 19,
2003, to ensure that the potential
impacts of its rules on small entities are
properly considered during the
rulemaking process. 68 FR 7990. DOE
has made its procedures and policies
available on the Office of the General
Counsel’s Web site, https://
www.gc.doe.gov.
DOE reviewed today’s proposed rule
under the provisions of the Regulatory
Flexibility Act and the procedures and
policies published on February 19,
2003. A regulatory flexibility analysis
examines the impact of the rule on
small entities and considers alternative
ways of reducing negative impacts.
In the context of this rulemaking,
‘‘small businesses,’’ as defined by the
SBA, for the small electric motor
manufacturing industry are
manufacturing enterprises with 1,000
employees or fewer. See https://www.
sba.gov/idc/groups/public/documents/
sba_homepage/serv_sstd_tablepdf.
DOE used this small business
definition to determine whether any
small entities would be required to
comply with the rule. (65 FR 30836,
30850 (May 15, 2000), as amended at 65
FR 53533, 53545 (September 5, 2000)
and codified at 13 CFR part 121. The
size standards are listed by NAICS code
and industry description. The
manufacturers impacted by this rule are
generally classified under NAICS
335312, ‘‘Motor and Generator
Manufacturing,’’ which sets a threshold
of 1,000 employees or less for an entity
in this category to be considered a small
business.
DOE identified producers of
equipment covered by this rulemaking,
which have manufacturing facilities
located within the United States and
could be considered small entities, by
two methods: (1) Asking larger
manufacturers in MIA interviews to
identify any competitors they believe
may be a small business, and (2)
researching NEMA-identified fractional
horsepower motor manufacturers. DOE
then looked at publicly-available data
and contacted manufacturers, as
necessary, to determine if they meet the
Small Business Administration (SBA)
definition of a small manufacturing
company. In total, DOE identified 11
companies that could potentially be
small businesses. During initial review
of the 11 companies in its list, DOE
either contacted or researched each
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company to determine if it sold covered
small electric motors. Based on its
research, DOE screened out companies
that did not offer motors covered by this
rulemaking. Consequently, DOE
estimated that only one out of 11
companies listed were potentially small
business manufacturers of covered
products. DOE then contacted this
potential small business manufacturer
and determined that the company’s
equipment would not be covered by this
proposed rulemaking. Thus, based on its
initial screening and subsequent
interviews, DOE did not identify any
company as a small business
manufacturer based on SBA’s definition
of a small business manufacturer for this
industry.
On the basis of the foregoing, DOE
certifies that the proposed rule, if
promulgated, would have no significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Accordingly,
DOE has not prepared a regulatory
flexibility analysis for this rulemaking.
DOE will transmit the certification and
supporting statement of factual basis to
the Chief Counsel for Advocacy of the
Small Business Administration for
review under 5 U.S.C. 605(b).
DOE seeks comment on the above
analysis, as well as any information
concerning small businesses that may be
impacted by this rulemaking and what
those impacts may be.
C. Review Under the Paperwork
Reduction Act
This rulemaking will impose no new
information or record-keeping
requirements. Accordingly, OMB
clearance is not required under the
Paperwork Reduction Act. (44 U.S.C.
3501 et seq.)
D. Review Under the National
Environmental Policy Act
DOE has prepared a draft
environmental assessment (EA) of the
impacts of the proposed rule pursuant
to the National Environmental Policy
Act of 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), the
regulations of the Council on
Environmental Quality (40 CFR parts
1500–1508), and DOE’s regulations for
compliance with the National
Environmental Policy Act (10 CFR part
1021). This assessment includes an
examination of the potential effects of
emission reductions likely to result from
the rule in the context of global climate
change, as well as other types of
environmental impacts. The draft EA
has been incorporated into the TSD.
Before issuing a final rule for small
electric motors, DOE will consider
public comments and, as appropriate,
determine whether to issue a finding of
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no significant impact as part of a final
EA or to prepare an environmental
impact statement (EIS) for this
rulemaking.
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E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
Executive Order 13132, ‘‘Federalism,’’
64 FR 43255 (August 4, 1999) imposes
certain requirements on agencies
formulating and implementing policies
or regulations that preempt State law or
that have federalism implications. The
Executive Order requires agencies to
examine the constitutional and statutory
authority supporting any action that
would limit the policymaking discretion
of the States and to carefully assess the
necessity for such actions. The
Executive Order also requires agencies
to have an accountable process to
ensure meaningful and timely input by
State and local officials in the
development of regulatory policies that
have federalism implications. On March
14, 2000, DOE published a statement of
policy describing the intergovernmental
consultation process it will follow in the
development of such regulations. 65 FR
13735. DOE has examined today’s
proposed rule and has determined that
it would not preempt State law or have
a substantial direct effect on the States,
on the relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the
distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of government. EPCA governs and
prescribes Federal preemption of State
regulations as to energy conservation for
the products that are the subject of
today’s proposed rule. States can
petition DOE for exemption from such
preemption to the extent, and based on
criteria, set forth in EPCA. (42 U.S.C.
6297) No further action is required by
Executive Order 13132.
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
With respect to the review of existing
regulations and the promulgation of
new regulations, section 3(a) of
Executive Order 12988, ‘‘Civil Justice
Reform’’ (61 FR 4729, February 7, 1996)
imposes on Federal agencies the general
duty to adhere to the following
requirements: (1) Eliminate drafting
errors and ambiguity, (2) write
regulations to minimize litigation, and
(3) provide a clear legal standard for
affected conduct rather than a general
standard and promote simplification
and burden reduction. Section 3(b) of
Executive Order 12988 specifically
requires that Executive agencies make
every reasonable effort to ensure that the
regulation: (1) Clearly specifies the
preemptive effect, if any; (2) clearly
specifies any effect on existing Federal
law or regulation; (3) provides a clear
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legal standard for affected conduct
while promoting simplification and
burden reduction; (4) specifies the
retroactive effect, if any; (5) adequately
defines key terms; and (6) addresses
other important issues affecting clarity
and general draftsmanship under any
guidelines issued by the Attorney
General. Section 3(c) of Executive Order
12988 requires Executive agencies to
review regulations in light of applicable
standards in section 3(a) and section
3(b) to determine whether they are met
or it is unreasonable to meet one or
more of them. DOE has completed the
required review and determined that, to
the extent permitted by law, this
proposed rule meets the relevant
standards of Executive Order 12988.
G. Review Under the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995
DOE reviewed this regulatory action
under Title II of the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104–4)
(UMRA), which requires each Federal
agency to assess the effects of Federal
regulatory actions on State, local and
Tribal governments and the private
sector. For a proposed regulatory action
likely to result in a rule that may cause
the expenditure by State, local, and
Tribal governments, in the aggregate, or
by the private sector of $100 million or
more in any one year (adjusted for
inflation), section 202 of UMRA requires
an agency to publish a written statement
assessing the costs, benefits, and other
effects of the rule on the national
economy. (2 U.S.C. 1532(a), (b)) The
UMRA also requires a Federal agency to
develop an effective process to permit
timely input by elected officers of State,
local, and Tribal governments on a
proposed ‘‘significant intergovernmental
mandate,’’ and requires an agency plan
for giving notice and opportunity for
timely input to potentially affected
small governments before establishing
any requirements that might
significantly or uniquely affect small
governments. On March 18, 1997, DOE
published a statement of policy on its
process for intergovernmental
consultation under UMRA (62 FR
12820) (also available at https://
www.gc.doe.gov).
Although today’s proposed rule does
not contain a Federal intergovernmental
mandate, today’s proposed rule will
likely result in a final rule that could
impose expenditures of $100 million or
more after 2015 for private sector
commercial and industrial users of
equipment with small electric motors.
DOE estimated annualized impacts for
the proposed rule using the results of
the national impacts analysis. The
national impact analysis results
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expressed as annualized values are
$923–$1,137 million in total annualized
benefits from the proposed rule, $292–
$786 million in annualized costs, and
$183–$845 million in annualized net
benefits. Details are provided in chapter
10 of the TSD. Therefore, DOE must
publish a written statement assessing
the costs, benefits, and other effects of
the rule on the national economy.
Section 205 of UMRA also requires DOE
to identify and consider a reasonable
number of regulatory alternatives before
promulgating a rule for which UMRA
requires such a written statement. DOE
must select from those alternatives the
most cost-effective and least
burdensome alternative that achieves
the objectives of the rule, unless DOE
publishes an explanation for doing
otherwise or the selection of such an
alternative is inconsistent with law.
Today’s proposed energy conservation
standards for small electric motors
would achieve the maximum
improvement in energy efficiency that
DOE has determined to be both
technologically feasible and
economically justified. A discussion of
the alternatives considered by DOE is
presented in the regulatory impact
analysis section of the TSD for this
proposed rule. Also, Section 202(c) of
UMRA authorizes an agency to prepare
the written statement required by
UMRA in conjunction with or as part of
any other statement or analysis that
accompanies the proposed rule. (2
U.S.C. 1532(c)) The TSD, preamble, and
regulatory impact analysis for today’s
proposed rule contain a full discussion
of the rule’s costs, benefits, and other
effects on the national economy, and
therefore satisfy UMRA’s written
statement requirement.
H. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act of 1999
Section 654 of the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act, 1999 (Pub. L. 105–277) requires
Federal agencies to issue a Family
Policymaking Assessment for any rule
that may affect family well-being. This
rule would not have any impact on the
autonomy or integrity of the family as
an institution. Accordingly, DOE has
concluded that it is not necessary to
prepare a Family Policymaking
Assessment.
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
DOE has determined, under Executive
Order 12630, ‘‘Governmental Actions
and Interference with Constitutionally
Protected Property Rights,’’ 53 FR 8859
(March 18, 1988), that this regulation
would not result in any takings that
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might require compensation under the
Fifth Amendment to the United States
Constitution.
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J. Review Under the Treasury and
General Government Appropriations
Act of 2001
The Treasury and General
Government Appropriations Act, 2001
(44 U.S.C. 3516, note) provides for
agencies to review most disseminations
of information to the public under
guidelines established by each agency
pursuant to general guidelines issued by
OMB. OMB’s guidelines were published
at 67 FR 8452 (February 22, 2002);
DOE’s guidelines were published at 67
FR 62446 (October 7, 2002). DOE has
reviewed today’s notice under the OMB
and DOE guidelines and has concluded
that it is consistent with applicable
policies in those guidelines.
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
Executive Order 13211, ‘‘Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use,’’ 66 FR 28355 (May
22, 2001) requires Federal agencies to
prepare and submit to the Office of
Information and Regulatory Affairs
(OIRA) a Statement of Energy Effects for
any proposed significant energy action.
A ‘‘significant energy action’’ is defined
as any action by an agency that
promulgates or is expected to lead to
promulgation of a final rule, and that:
(1) Is a significant regulatory action
under Executive Order 12866, or any
successor order; and (2) is likely to have
a significant adverse effect on the
supply, distribution, or use of energy, or
(3) is designated by the Administrator of
OIRA as a significant energy action. For
any proposed significant energy action,
the agency must give a detailed
statement of any adverse effects on
energy supply, distribution, or use
should the proposal be implemented,
and of reasonable alternatives to the
action and their expected benefits on
energy supply, distribution, and use.
Today’s regulatory action, which
proposes standards to increase the
energy efficiency of 72 product classes
of small electric motors, would not have
a significant adverse effect on the
supply, distribution, or use of energy.
The rule was also not designated by
OIRA as a significant energy action.
Therefore, today’s proposed rule is not
a significant energy action. Accordingly,
DOE has not prepared a Statement of
Energy Effects.
L. Review Under the Information
Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
In consultation with the Office of
Science and Technology (OSTP), OMB
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issued on December 16, 2004, its ‘‘Final
Information Quality Bulletin for Peer
Review’’ (the Bulletin). 70 FR 2664.
(January 14, 2005) The Bulletin
establishes that certain scientific
information shall be peer reviewed by
qualified specialists before it is
disseminated by the Federal
government, including influential
scientific information related to agency
regulatory actions. The purpose of the
bulletin is to enhance the quality and
credibility of the Government’s
scientific information. Under the
Bulletin, the energy conservation
standards rulemaking analyses are
‘‘influential scientific information.’’ The
Bulletin defines ‘‘influential scientific
information’’ as ‘‘scientific information
the agency reasonably can determine
will have, or does have, a clear and
substantial impact on important public
policies or private sector decisions.’’ 70
FR 2667 (January 14, 2005).
In response to OMB’s Bulletin, DOE
conducted formal in-progress peer
reviews of the energy conservation
standards development process and
analyses. DOE prepared the ‘‘Energy
Conservation Standards Rulemaking
Peer Review Report,’’ dated February
2007, which pertains to these
rulemaking analyses. DOE disseminated
the report, and it is available at https://
www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/peer_review.html.
VII. Public Participation
A. Attendance at Public Meeting
The time, date, and location of the
public meeting are listed in the DATES
and ADDRESSES sections at the beginning
of this document. To attend the public
meeting, please notify Ms. Brenda
Edwards at (202) 586–2945 or
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov. As
explained in the ADDRESSES section,
foreign nationals visiting DOE
Headquarters are subject to advance
security screening procedures.
B. Procedure for Submitting Requests To
Speak
Any person who has an interest in
today’s notice, or who is a
representative of a group or class of
persons that has an interest in these
issues, may request an opportunity to
make an oral presentation. Such persons
may hand-deliver requests to speak,
along with a computer diskette or CD in
WordPerfect, Microsoft Word, PDF, or
text (ASCII) file format, to the address
shown in the ADDRESSES section at the
beginning of this notice of proposed
rulemaking between the hours of 9 a.m.
and 4 p.m., Monday through Friday,
except Federal holidays. Requests may
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also be sent by mail, or by e-mail to
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
Persons requesting to speak should
briefly describe the nature of their
interest in this rulemaking and provide
a telephone number for contact. DOE
requests persons selected to be heard to
submit an advance copy of their
statements at least one week before the
public meeting. At its discretion, DOE
may permit any person who cannot
supply an advance copy of their
statement to participate, if that person
has made advance alternative
arrangements with the Building
Technologies Program. The request to
give an oral presentation should ask for
such alternative arrangements.
C. Conduct of Public Meeting
DOE will designate a DOE official to
preside at the public meeting and may
also use a professional facilitator to aid
discussion. The meeting will not be a
judicial or evidentiary-type public
hearing, but DOE will conduct it in
accordance with section 336 of EPCA,
42 U.S.C. 6306. A court reporter will be
present to record the proceedings and
prepare a transcript. DOE reserves the
right to schedule the order of
presentations and to establish the
procedures governing the conduct of the
public meeting. After the public
meeting, interested parties may submit
further comments on the proceedings as
well as on any aspect of the rulemaking
until the end of the comment period.
The public meeting will be conducted
in an informal, conference style. DOE
will present summaries of comments
received before the public meeting,
allow time for presentations by
participants, and encourage all
interested parties to share their views on
issues affecting this rulemaking. Each
participant will be allowed to make a
prepared general statement (within time
limits determined by DOE), before the
discussion of specific topics. DOE will
permit other participants to comment
briefly on any general statements.
At the end of all prepared statements
on a topic, DOE will permit participants
to clarify their statements briefly and
comment on statements made by others.
Participants should be prepared to
answer questions from DOE and from
other participants concerning these
issues. DOE representatives may also
ask questions of participants concerning
other matters relevant to this
rulemaking. The official conducting the
public meeting will accept additional
comments or questions from those
attending, as time permits. The
presiding official will announce any
further procedural rules or modification
of the above procedures that may be
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needed for the proper conduct of the
public meeting.
DOE will make the entire record of
this proposed rulemaking, including the
transcript from the public meeting,
available for inspection at the U.S.
Department of Energy, Resource Room
of the Building Technologies Program,
950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW., Washington,
DC 20024, (202) 586–2945, between 9
a.m. and 4 p.m., Monday through
Friday, except Federal holidays. Any
person may purchase a copy of the
transcript from the transcribing reporter.
D. Submission of Comments
DOE will accept comments, data, and
information regarding the proposed rule
before or after the public meeting, but
no later than the date provided at the
beginning of this notice of proposed
rulemaking. Comments, data, and
information submitted to DOE’s e-mail
address for this rulemaking should be
provided in WordPerfect, Microsoft
Word, PDF, or text (ASCII) file format.
Interested parties should avoid the use
of special characters or any form of
encryption and, wherever possible,
comments should carry the electronic
signature of the author. Comments, data,
and information submitted to DOE via
mail or hand delivery/courier should
include one signed original paper copy.
No telefacsimiles (faxes) will be
accepted.
According to 10 CFR 1004.11, any
person submitting information that he
or she believes to be confidential and
exempt by law from public disclosure
should submit two copies: One copy of
the document including all the
information believed to be confidential,
and one copy of the document with the
information believed to be confidential
deleted. DOE will make its own
determination about the confidential
status of the information and treat it
according to its determination.
Factors of interest to DOE when
evaluating requests to treat submitted
information as confidential include (1) a
description of the items; (2) whether
and why such items are customarily
treated as confidential within the
industry; (3) whether the information is
generally known by or available from
other sources; (4) whether the
information has previously been made
available to others without obligation
concerning its confidentiality; (5) an
explanation of the competitive injury to
the submitting person which would
result from public disclosure; (6) when
such information might lose its
confidential character due to the
passage of time; and (7) why disclosure
of the information would be contrary to
the public interest.
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E. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment
DOE is particularly interested in
receiving comments and views of
interested parties concerning the
following issues:
1. The proposal of product classes
based on motor category, pole
configuration, and horsepower.
2. The proposal to include other
insulation class systems besides A, in
particular B and F insulation class
systems.
3. The baseline models and
efficiencies used in the engineering
analysis.
4. The various markups used in the
engineering analysis, in particular the
difference in overhead markups for
designs that use a copper rotor and
those that use an aluminum rotor.
5. The design options and limitations
presented in the engineering analysis
such as the limitations on motor size,
the air gap between the rotor and stator,
and the power factor.
6. The approach to scale the
engineering analysis results to product
classes for which a complete analysis
was not performed, especially the
decision to use the relationships found
for CSIR motors to scale results for
CSCR motors.
7. The proposal to define nominal
efficiency as the average full-load
efficiency of a large population of
motors of the same design.
8. The preservation of operating
profits as the lower bound scenario and
the preservation of return on invested
capital as the upper bound scenario for
the INPV results generated in the
manufacturer impact analysis.
9. The capital investment costs
needed to reach each efficiency level.
10. Input and data regarding how the
single-phase small motor market will
respond to the proposed standards. In
particular, DOE seeks comment
regarding its CSIR/CSCR cross-elasticity
model; the current market shares of
CSIR and CSCR motors in each
combination of motor power and
number of poles; the barriers the
customers face if they switch from CSIR
to CSCR motors or vice versa; and the
timescale over which market share
shifts would take place in response to
standards. DOE also welcomes
additional comments and data regarding
the scaling of motor losses and prices
between product classes.
11. Input and data regarding how the
small electric motors market will
respond to the proposed standards. In
particular, DOE seeks comment
regarding alternative small electric
motor technologies and how elasticity
between the market for these alternative
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technologies and the market for covered
motors could potentially affect the
projected shipments and energy savings.
12. The behavior of customers with
space-constrained applications, the
costs they face, and the time-frame over
which they may need to redesign a
system or large piece of equipment to
accommodate a larger-component small
electric motor. DOE also seeks further
information regarding the population
and distribution of space-constrained
customers among motor applications.
13. The combined effect of the several
assumptions and estimates that DOE
makes in order to estimate the impact of
standards under expected market shifts.
DOE seeks comment regarding its
approach and suggestions on how
forecast uncertainty can be estimated
and weighed against the potential
increases in benefits when selecting a
higher standard level that may induce a
shift in motor purchases.
14. The appropriateness of using other
discount rates in addition to seven
percent and three percent real to
discount future emissions reductions;
and
15. The determination of the
anticipated environmental impacts of
the proposed rule, particularly with
respect to the methods for valuing the
expected CO2 and NOX emissions
savings due to the proposed standards.
16. The proposed standard level for
polyphase small electric motors.
17. The proposed standard level for
single-phase (capacitor-start) small
electric motors.
VIII. Approval of the Office of the
Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved
publication of today’s proposed rule.
List of Subjects in 10 CFR Part 431
Administrative practice and
procedure, Confidential business
information, Energy conservation,
Reporting and recordkeeping
requirements.
Issued in Washington, DC, on October 27,
2009.
Cathy Zoi,
Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy.
For the reasons stated in the
preamble, DOE proposes to amend
chapter II of title 10, Code of Federal
Regulations, part 431 as set forth below.
PART 431—ENERGY EFFICIENCY
PROGRAM FOR CERTAIN
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL
EQUIPMENT
1. The authority citation for part 431
continues to read as follows:
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Authority: 42 U.S.C. 6291–6317.
§ 431.446 Small electric motors energy
conservation standards and their effective
dates.
*
*
*
*
Nominal Full Load Efficiency means
the arithmetic mean of the full load
efficiencies of a population of electric
motors of duplicate design, where the
full load efficiency of each motor in the
population is the ratio (expressed as a
percentage) of the motor’s useful power
output to its total power input when the
motor is operated at its full rated load,
rated voltage, and rated frequency.
*
*
*
*
*
3. Section 431.446 is added to read as
follows:
(b) For purposes of determining the
required minimum nominal full load
efficiency of an electric motor that has
a horsepower or kilowatt rating between
two horsepower or two kilowatt ratings
listed in any table of efficiency
standards in paragraph (a) of this
section, each such motor shall be
deemed to have a listed horsepower or
kilowatt rating, determined as follows:
(1) A horsepower at or above the
midpoint between the two consecutive
horsepower ratings shall be rounded up
to the higher of the two horsepower
ratings;
(2) A horsepower below the midpoint
between the two consecutive
horsepower ratings shall be rounded
down to the lower of the two
horsepower ratings; or
(3) A kilowatt rating shall be directly
converted from kilowatts to horsepower
using the formula 1 kilowatt = (1/0.746)
hp, without calculating beyond three
significant decimal places, and the
resulting horsepower shall be rounded
in accordance with paragraphs (b)(1) or
(b)(2) of this section, whichever applies.
§ 431.442 Definitions concerning small
electric motors.
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*
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(a) Each small electric motor
manufactured (alone or as a component
of another piece of non-covered
equipment) after February 28, 2015,
shall have a nominal full load efficiency
of not less than the following:
[FR Doc. E9–27914 Filed 11–18–09; 11:15
am]
BILLING CODE 6450–01–P
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2. Section 431.442 is amended by
adding, in alphabetical order, a new
definition for ‘‘nominal full load
efficiency’’ to read as follows:
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 74, Number 225 (Tuesday, November 24, 2009)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 61410-61500]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E9-27914]
[[Page 61409]]
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Part II
Department of Energy
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
10 CFR Part 431
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Small
Electric Motors; Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 225 / Tuesday, November 24, 2009 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 61410]]
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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 431
[Docket Number EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007]
RIN 1904-AB70
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Small Electric Motors
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking and public meeting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Energy Policy and Conservation Act authorizes the U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) to establish energy conservation standards
for various consumer products and commercial and industrial equipment.
Such equipment includes those small electric motors for which DOE
determines that energy conservation standards would be technologically
feasible and economically justified, and would result in significant
energy savings. In this notice, DOE proposes energy conservation
standards for certain small electric motors and is announcing a public
meeting.
DATES: Public meeting: DOE will hold a public meeting on Thursday,
December 17, 2009, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., in Washington, DC. DOE must
receive requests to speak at the public meeting before 4 p.m.,
Thursday, December 3, 2009. DOE must receive a signed original and an
electronic copy of statements to be given at the public meeting before
4 p.m., Thursday, December 10, 2009.
Comments: DOE will also accept written comments, data, and
information regarding this notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) before
and after the public meeting, but received no later than January 25,
2010. See section VII, ``Public Participation,'' of this NOPR for
details.
ADDRESSES: The public meeting will be held at the U.S. Department of
Energy, Forrestal Building, Room 8E-089, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.,
Washington, DC 20585. Please note that foreign nationals visiting DOE
Headquarters are subject to advance security screening procedures,
requiring a 30-day advance notice. If you are a foreign national and
wish to participate in the workshop, please inform DOE of this fact as
soon as possible by contacting Ms. Brenda Edwards at (202) 586-2945 so
that the necessary procedures can be completed.
Any comments submitted must identify the NOPR for Energy
Conservation Standards for Small Electric Motors, and provide the
docket number EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 and/or regulatory information
number (RIN) number 1904-AB70. Comments may be submitted using any of
the following methods:
Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov.
Follow the instructions for submitting comments.
E-mail: small_electric_motors_std.rulemaking@hq.doe.gov. Include the docket number and/or RIN in the
subject line of the message.
Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy,
Building Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, 1000 Independence
Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121. Please submit one signed
original paper copy.
Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department
of Energy, Building Technologies Program, 950 L'Enfant Plaza, SW.,
Suite 600, Washington, DC 20024. Telephone: (202) 586-2945. Please
submit one signed original paper copy.
For detailed instructions on submitting comments and additional
information on the rulemaking process, see section VII of this document
(Public Participation).
Docket: For access to the docket to read background documents or
comments received, visit the U.S. Department of Energy, Resource Room
of the Building Technologies Program, 950 L'Enfant Plaza, SW., Suite
600, Washington, DC, (202) 586-2945, between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., Monday
through Friday, except Federal holidays. Please call Ms. Brenda Edwards
at the above telephone number for additional information regarding
visiting the Resource Room. Please note: DOE's Freedom of Information
Reading Room is no longer housing rulemaking materials.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. James Raba, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program, EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington,
DC 20585-0121, (202) 586-8654, e-mail: Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov.
Mr. Michael Kido, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of General
Counsel, GC-72, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW., Washington, DC 20585,
(202) 586-9507, e-mail: Michael.Kido@hq.doe.gov.
For information on how to submit or review public comments and on
how to participate in the public meeting, contact Ms. Brenda Edwards,
U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, Building Technologies Program, EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue,
SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 586-2945. E-mail:
Brenda.Edwards@ee.doe.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Summary of the Proposed Rule
II. Introduction
A. Consumer Overview
B. Authority
C. Background
1. Current Standards
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for Small Electric Motors
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
C. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
2. Significance of Savings
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers and Consumers
b. Life-Cycle Costs
c. Energy Savings
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of Products
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
g. Other Factors
2. Rebuttable Presumption
IV. Methodology and Discussion
A. Market and Technology Assessment
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
a. Motor Categories
b. Motor Enclosures
c. Service Factors
d. Insulation Class Systems
e. Metric Equivalents
f. Frame Sizes
g. Horsepower Ratings
2. Product Classes
B. Screening Analysis
C. Engineering Analysis
1. Approach
2. Product Classes Analyzed
3. Cost Model
4. Baseline Models
5. Design Options and Limitations
a. Manufacturability
b. Motor Size
c. Service Factor
d. Skew and Stay-Load Loss
e. Air Gap
f. Power Factor
g. Speed
h. Thermal Performance
i. Slot Fill
j. Current and Torque Characteristics
6. Scaling Methodology
7. Nominal Efficiency
8. Cost-Efficiency Results
D. Markups To Determine Equipment Price
1. Distribution Channels
2. Estimation of Markups
3. Summary of Markups
E. Energy Use Characterization
F. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis
1. Baseline and Standard Level Efficiencies
[[Page 61411]]
2. Installed Equipment Cost
3. Motor Applications
4. Annual Operating Hours and Energy Use
5. Space Constraints
6. Power Factor
7. Energy Prices
8. Energy Price Trend
9. Maintenance and Repair Costs
10. Equipment Lifetime
11. Discount Rate
12. Standard Effective Date
G. National Impact Analysis--National Energy Savings and Net
Present Value Analysis
1. Shipments
H. Consumer Sub-Group Analysis
I. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
1. Overview
2. Phase 1, Industry Profile
3. Phase 2, Industry Cash-Flow Analysis
4. Phase 3, Sub-Group Impact Analysis
5. Government Regulatory Impact Model Analysis
6. Manufacturer Interviews
7. Government Regulatory Impact Model Key Inputs and Scenarios
a. Base-Case Shipments Forecast
b. Standards-Case Shipments Forecast
c. Manufacturing Production Costs
d. Manufacturing Markup Scenarios
e. Equipment and Capital Conversion Costs
J. Employment Impact Analysis
K. Utility Impact Analysis
L. Environmental Analysis
1. Power Sector Emissions
2. Valuation of CO2 Emissions
3. Valuation of Other Emissions
V. Analytical Results
A. Trial Standard Levels
B. Economic Justification and Energy Savings
1. Economic Impacts on Customers
a. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
b. Life-Cycle Cost Sensitivity Calculations
c. Customer Sub-Group Analysis
d. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
2. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
a. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
b. Impacts on Direct Employment
c. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
d. Impacts on Manufacturer Subgroups
e. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
3. National Impact Analysis
a. Significance of Energy Savings
b. Net Present Value
c. Impacts on Employment
4. Impact on Utility or Performance of Products
5. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
6. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
7. Other Factors
C. Proposed Standard
1. Polyphase Small Electric Motors
2. Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act
C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act
D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act
E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995
H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act of 1999
I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government
Appropriations Act of 2001
K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
L. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
VII. Public Participation
A. Attendance at Public Meeting
B. Procedure for Submitting Requests To Speak
C. Conduct of Public Meeting
D. Submission of Comments
E. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Summary of the Proposed Rule
Pursuant to the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (42 U.S.C. 6291
et seq.), as amended, (EPCA or the Act), the Department of Energy (DOE)
is proposing new energy conservation standards for capacitor-start and
polyphase small electric motors. These standards would achieve the
maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified for this equipment, and would
result in significant conservation of energy. The proposed standards
are shown in Table I.1, Table I.2, and Table I.3, and would apply to
all equipment manufactured in, or imported into, the United States on
and after 5 years following the publication of the final rule.
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DOE's analyses indicate that the proposed standards would save a
significant amount of energy--an estimated 2.46 quads of cumulative
energy over 30 years (2015-2045). Of this, 2.13 quads of savings result
from standards on capacitor-start (single-phase) motors and 0.33 quads
of savings result from standards on polyphase motors.\1\ The energy
savings results for single-phase motors represent the combined effect
of standards on the capacitor-start, induction-run (CSIR) \2\ and
capacitor-start, capacitor-run (CSCR) \3\ motors markets, because
general purpose CSIR and CSCR motors generally meet similar performance
criteria and can often be used in the same applications.\4\ The amount
of projected energy savings is equivalent to the total energy 7.8
million U.S. citizens use in 1 year. The economic impacts on owners
(hereafter ``customers'') of equipment containing single-phase small
electric motors--i.e., the average life-cycle cost (LCC) savings--are
positive. Polyphase small electric motor customers experience, on
average, small LCC increases as a result of the standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ A polyphase motor is an electric motor that uses three-phase
electricity and the phase changes of the electrical supply to induce
a rotational magnetic field, thereby supplying torque to the rotor.
\2\ A capacitor-start induction-run motor is a single-phase
motor with a main winding arranged for direct connection to a source
of power and an auxiliary winding connected in series with a
capacitor. The motor has a capacitor phase, which is in the circuit
only during the starting period.
\3\ A capacitor-start capacitor-run motor is a single-phase
motor which has different values of effective capacitance for the
starting and running conditions.
\4\ Polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR motors can be found in a range of
applications including, but not limited to the following: Pumps,
blowers, fans, compressors, conveyors and general industrial
equipment.
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The cumulative national net present value (NPV) of total customer
costs and savings from the proposed standards from 2015 to 2065 in
2008$ ranges from
[[Page 61413]]
$1.53 billion (at a 7-percent discount rate) to $14.15 billion (at a 3-
percent discount rate). This is the estimated total value of future
operating-cost savings minus the estimated increased equipment costs,
discounted to 2009. If DOE were to adopt the proposed standards, it
expects a -12.86 percent to 10.69 percent change in manufacturer
industry net present value (INPV) for single-phase motors and -13.8
percent to 16.9 percent change in manufacturer INPV for polyphase
motors, which is approximately -$44.67 to $40.70 million total. As a
result, the NPV for customers (at the 7-percent discount rate) of $1.53
billion would thus exceed industry losses by about 33 times.
Additionally, based on DOE's interviews with the major manufacturers of
small electric motors, DOE does not expect any plant closings or loss
of employment. The major small electric motor manufacturers include:
A.O. Smith Electrical Products Company, Baldor Electric Company,
Emerson Motor Technologies, Regal-Beloit Corporation, and WEG. Except
for WEG, all of these manufacturers are U.S.-based. WEG is based in
Brazil.
The proposed standards would have significant environmental
benefits. All of the energy saved would be in the form of electricity.
DOE expects the energy savings to eliminate the need for approximately
2.49 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity by 2030. The reduction in
electricity generation would result in cumulative (undiscounted)
greenhouse gas emission reductions of 124.8 million tons (Mt) of carbon
dioxide (CO2) from 2015 to 2045. During this period, the
standard would result in power plant emission reductions of 89.6
kilotons (kt) of nitrogen oxides (NOX) and 0.561 tons of
mercury (Hg). These reductions have a value of up to $2,737 million for
CO2, $67.7 million for NOX, and $5.31 million for
Hg, at a discount rate of 7-percent.
The benefits and costs of today's proposed rule can also be
expressed in terms of annualized (2008$) values from 2015-2045.
Estimates of annualized values are shown in Table I.4. The annualized
monetary values are the sum of the annualized national economic value
of operating savings benefits (energy, maintenance and repair),
expressed in 2008$, plus the monetary value of the benefits of
CO2 emission reductions, otherwise known as the Social Cost
of Carbon (SCC), expressed as $20 per metric ton of CO2, in
2008$. The $20 value is a central interim value from a recent
interagency process. The monetary benefits of cumulative emissions
reductions are reported in 2008$ so that they can be compared with the
other costs and benefits in the same dollar units. The derivation of
this value is discussed in section V.B.6. Although comparing the value
of operating savings to the value of CO2 reductions provides
a valuable perspective, please note the following: (1) The national
operating savings are domestic U.S. consumer monetary savings found in
market transactions while the CO2 value of reductions is
based on a central value from a range of estimates of imputed marginal
SCC from $5 to $56 per metric ton (2008$), which are meant to reflect
the global benefits of CO2 reductions; and (2) the
assessments of operating savings and CO2 savings are
performed with different computer models, leading to different time
frames for analysis. The national operating cost savings is measured
for the lifetime of small electric motors shipped in the 31-year period
2015-2045. The value of CO2, on the other hand, is meant to
reflect the present value of all future climate related impacts, even
those beyond 2065.
Using a 7-percent discount rate for the annualized cost analysis,
the combined cost of the standards proposed in today's proposed rule
for small electric motors is $515.4 million per year in increased
equipment and installation costs, while the annualized benefits are
$923.1 million per year in reduced equipment operating costs and $97.8
million in CO2 reductions, for a net benefit of $505.5
million per year. Using a 3-percent discount rate, the cost of the
standards proposed in today's proposed rule is $514.0 million per year
in increased equipment and installation costs, while the benefits of
today's standards are $1,071.5 million per year in reduced operating
costs and $131.8 million in CO2 reductions, for a net
benefit of $689.3 million per year.
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[[Page 61415]]
DOE has tentatively concluded that the proposed standards represent
the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically
feasible and economically justified and would result in significant
conservation of energy. Based on the analyses culminating in this
proposal, DOE found the benefits (energy savings, consumer LCC savings,
national NPV increase, and emission reductions) outweigh the burdens
(loss of INPV and LCC increases for some small electric motor users).
For a discussion of the energy savings and NPV results, see TSD chapter
10. For LCC results, see TSD chapter 8. For emissions reductions, see
TSD chapter 15. For INPV, see TSD chapter 12.
DOE considered higher efficiency levels as trial standard levels,
and is still considering them in this rulemaking; however, DOE has
tentatively concluded that the burdens of the higher efficiency levels
would outweigh the benefits. Based on consideration of public comments
DOE receives in response to this notice and related information, DOE
may adopt either higher or lower efficiency levels than those presented
in this proposal or some level(s) in between.
II. Introduction
A. Consumer Overview
Currently, no mandatory Federal energy conservation standards apply
to small electric motors. DOE is proposing standards for the small
motors shown in Table I.1, Table I.2, and Table I.3. The proposed
standards would apply to equipment manufactured for sale in the United
States, beginning 5 years after the final rule is published in the
Federal Register. The final rule is expected to be published by
February 28, 2010; therefore, the effective date would be February 28,
2015.
The proposed standards represent an overall reduction of
approximately 40 percent in motor energy losses. The capacitor-start
induction-run (CSIR) standards represent a 45-percent reduction in
losses for a 0.5 hp CSIR motor, relative to the current market average.
The capacitor-start capacitor-run (CSCR) standards represent a 37-
percent reduction in losses for a 0.75 hp CSCR motor. The polyphase
standards represent a 45-percent reduction in losses for a 1 hp
polyphase motor.
DOE's analyses indicate that commercial and industrial customers
would benefit from the proposed standards. Although DOE expects the
installed cost of the higher-efficiency small motors to be greater
(ranging from 9 percent for a 0.75 hp CSCR motor to 26 percent for a 1
hp polyphase motor than the average price of this equipment today, the
energy efficiency gains will result in lower energy costs. A 0.5 hp
CSIR customer will save an average of $25 per year on energy costs
compared with an annual cost of losses of a baseline CSIR motor of $48
per year, while a 1 hp polyphase customer will save an average of $10
per year compared to an operational cost of motor losses of $34 per
year for a baseline motor. A 0.75 hp CSCR customer will save $36 per
year on their energy bill compared with a baseline CSCR motor that
costs $57 per year in losses to operate on average. DOE estimates that
the median payback period (PBP) for equipment meeting the proposed
standards will be approximately 5 to 14 years. When these savings are
summed over the lifetime of the higher efficiency equipment (and
discounted to the present), a 0.5 hp CSIR consumer will save $49, on
average, compared to a baseline 0.5 hp CSIR motor. A 0.75 hp CSCR
consumer will save $28, on average, compared to a baseline CSCR motor,
and $121, on average, compared to a baseline 0.75 hp CSIR motor. A
consumer who purchases a 1 hp polyphase motor will experience an
average net increase of $38 relative to the $1,274 life-cycle cost of a
baseline polyphase small electric motor.
DOE estimates that even though there will be a net national savings
from the standard, a majority of motor customers may not receive net
life-cycle cost benefits. This is because many small electric motors
are installed in applications where the motor is running only a few
hours per day. On the other hand, because a substantial minority of
motors is running at nearly all hours of the day and are replaced more
often than motors that run infrequently, these motors obtain relatively
large savings from the standard and yield positive net benefits from
the standard.
B. Authority
Title III of EPCA sets forth a variety of provisions designed to
improve energy efficiency. Part A of Title III (42 U.S.C. 6291-6309)
provides for the Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products
Other Than Automobiles. Part A-1 of Title III (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317)
establishes a similar program for certain types of commercial and
industrial equipment, which includes small electric motors.\5\ DOE
publishes today's notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) pursuant to Part
A-1, which provides definitions, test procedures, labeling provisions,
energy conservation standards, and the authority to require information
and reports from manufacturers. The test procedures DOE recently
adopted for small electric motors, 74 FR 32059 (July 7, 2009), appear
at Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) sections 431.343 and
431.344.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ These two parts were titled Parts B and C, but were
redesignated as Parts A and A-1 by the United States Code for
editorial reasons.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Act defines ``small electric motors'' as follows:
The term ``small electric motor'' means a NEMA [National
Electrical Manufacturers Association] general purpose alternating
current single-speed induction motor, built in a two-digit frame
number series in accordance with NEMA Standards Publication MG1-
1987.
(42 U.S.C. 6311(13)(F))
Moreover, pursuant to section 346(b)(3) of EPCA (42 U.S.C.
6317(b)(3)), no standard prescribed for small electric motors shall
apply to any such motor that is a component of a covered product under
section 322(a) of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6292(a)) or of covered equipment
under section 340 (42 U.S.C. 6311).
EPCA provides several criteria that govern adoption of new
standards for small electric motors. After reviewing any comments
received regarding today's notice, DOE will evaluate the information
before it and decide whether today's proposed standards meet those
criteria and are economically justified by determining whether the
benefits of the standard exceed its burdens. DOE will make this
determination by considering, to the greatest extent practicable, using
the following seven factors set forth in 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i):
1. The economic impact of the standard on manufacturers and
consumers of the equipment subject to the standard;
2. The savings in operating costs throughout the estimated average
life of the covered equipment in the type (or class) compared to any
increase in the price, initial charges, or maintenance expenses for the
covered equipment that are likely to result from the imposition of the
standard;
3. The total projected energy savings likely to result directly
from the imposition of the standard;
4. Any lessening of the utility or the performance of the covered
equipment likely to result from the imposition of the standard;
5. The impact of any lessening of competition, as determined in
writing by the attorney general, that is likely to result from the
imposition of the standard;
[[Page 61416]]
6. The need for national energy conservation; and
7. Other factors the Secretary considers relevant.
42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(I)-(VII)
Additionally, pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 6317(c), DOE will consider the
criteria outlined in 42 U.S.C. 6295(n)--whether the standards will
result in a significant conservation of energy, are technologically
feasible, and are cost effective as described in 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(II) (see criterion 2 listed above). These criteria are
largely folded into the seven criteria that DOE routinely analyzes as
part of its standards rulemaking analyses. Accordingly, DOE will
continue to conduct its more comprehensive analyses under 42 U.S.C.
6295(o) as part of this rulemaking.
DOE also notes that today's notice concerns types of ``covered
equipment'' as defined in EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6311(1)(A)), rather than
``covered products'' as defined in EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6291(2)). Under 42
U.S.C. 6316(a), the criteria for prescribing new standards for consumer
products (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)) apply when promulgating standards for
certain specified commercial and industrial equipment, including small
electric motors. EPCA substitutes the term ``equipment'' for
``product'' when the latter term appears in consumer product-related
provisions that EPCA also applies to commercial and industrial
equipment. (See 42 U.S.C. 6316(a)(3).)
In developing energy conservation standards for small electric
motors, DOE is also applying certain other provisions of 42 U.S.C.
6295. First, DOE will not prescribe a standard if interested parties
have established by a preponderance of evidence that the standard is
likely to result in the unavailability in the United States of any
covered equipment type (or class) with performance characteristics,
features, sizes, capacities, and volume that are substantially the same
as those generally available in the United States. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(4))
Second, DOE is applying 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(iii), which
establishes a rebuttable presumption that a standard is economically
justified if the Secretary finds that ``the additional cost to the
consumer of purchasing a product complying with an energy conservation
standard level will be less than three times the value of the energy *
* * savings during the first year that the consumer will receive as a
result of the standard, as calculated under the applicable test
procedure. * * *'' in place for that standard.
Third, in setting standards for a type or class of covered product
that has two or more subcategories, DOE will specify a different
standard level than that which applies generally to such type or class
of equipment ``for any group of covered products which have the same
function or intended use, if * * * products within such group-(A)
consume a different kind of energy from that consumed by other covered
products within such type (or class); or (B) have a capacity or other
performance-related feature which other products within such type (or
class) do not have and such feature justifies a higher or lower
standard'' than applies or will apply to the other products. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(q)(1).) In determining whether a performance-related
feature justifies a different standard for a group of products, DOE
considers such factors as the utility to the consumer of such a feature
and other factors DOE deems appropriate. Any rule prescribing such a
standard will include an explanation of the basis on which DOE
established such higher or lower level. (See 42 U.S.C. 6295(q)(2))
Federal energy efficiency requirements for equipment covered by 42
U.S.C. 6317 generally supersede State laws or regulations concerning
energy conservation testing, labeling, and standards. (42 U.S.C.
6297(a)-(c) and 6316(a)) DOE can, however, grant waivers of preemption
for particular State laws or regulations, in accordance with the
procedures and other provisions of section 327(d) of the Act. (42
U.S.C. 6297(d) and 6316(a))
C. Background
1. Current Standards
As indicated above, there are no national energy conservation
standards prescribed for small electric motors.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for Small Electric Motors
Pursuant to the requirements of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (Pub.
L. 102-486), DOE began to gather and analyze information to determine
whether standards for small electric motors would meet its criteria.
DOE began its determination analysis, by examining what motors were
covered and concluded that the EPCA definition of ``small electric
motor'' covers only those motors that meet the definition's frame-size
requirements and are either three-phase, non-servo motors (polyphase
motors) or single-phase, capacitor-start motors, including both CSIR
and CSCR motors. 71 FR 38799, 38800-01 (July 10, 2006). DOE reached
this conclusion because only these motor categories can meet the
performance requirements set forth for general-purpose alternating-
current motors by NEMA MG1-1987.
DOE then analyzed the likely range of energy savings and economic
benefits that would result from energy conservation standards for these
small motors, and prepared a report describing its analysis and
provided its projected estimated energy savings from potential
standards. In June 2006, DOE made the report, ``Determination Analysis
Technical Support Document: Analysis of Energy Conservation Standards
for Small Electric Motors,'' available for public comment at https://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html.
Pursuant to section 346(b)(3) of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)), the
analysis did not include motors that are a component of a covered
product or equipment. Also, the report made no recommendation as to
what determination DOE should make. DOE received comments concerning
this analysis from NEMA, the Small Motors and Motion Association (SMMA,
now the Motors and Motion Association), and the American Council for an
Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE).
Thereafter, DOE analyzed whether significant energy savings would
result from energy conservation standards for the small electric motors
considered in its previous analysis, and incorporated the results of
this additional analysis into a technical support document (TSD). Based
on these results, DOE issued the following determination on June 27,
2006:
Based on its analysis of the information now available, the
Department [of Energy] has determined that energy conservation
standards for certain small electric motors appear to be
technologically feasible and economically justified, and are likely
to result in significant energy savings. Consequently, DOE will
initiate the development of energy efficiency test procedures and
standards for certain small electric motors. 71 FR 38807.
DOE initiated this rulemaking to develop standards and another
rulemaking to develop test procedures for small motors. DOE began this
rulemaking by publishing ``Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking
Framework Document for Small Electric Motors'' on https://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/pdfs/small_motors_framework_073007.pdf.
DOE also published a notice announcing the availability of the
framework document and a public meeting on the document, and requesting
public comments on the
[[Page 61417]]
matters raised in the document. 72 FR 44990 (August 10, 2007).
On September 13, 2007, DOE held the public meeting at which it
presented the contents of the framework document, described the
analyses it planned to conduct during the rulemaking, sought comments
from interested parties on these subjects, and sought to inform
interested parties about, and facilitate their involvement in, the
rulemaking. Interested parties that participated in the public meeting
discussed eight major issues: the scope of covered small electric
motors, definitions, test procedures, horsepower, and kilowatt
equivalency, DOE's engineering analysis, life-cycle costs, efficiency
levels, and energy savings. At the meeting and during the framework
document comment period, DOE received many comments helping it identify
and resolve issues involved in this rulemaking.
DOE gathered additional information and performed preliminary
analyses to inform the development of energy conservation standards.
This process culminated in DOE's announcement of an informal public
meeting to discuss and receive comments on the following matters: the
product classes DOE planned to analyze; the analytical framework,
models, and tools that DOE was using to evaluate standards; the results
of the preliminary analyses DOE performed; and potential standard
levels that DOE might consider. 73 FR 79723 (December 30, 2008). DOE
also invited written comments on these subjects and announced the
availability on its Web site of a preliminary TSD. Id. A PDF of the
preliminary TSD is available at https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors_nopr_tsd.html.
Finally, DOE stated its interest in receiving comments on other
issues that participants believe would affect energy conservation
standards for small electric motors or that DOE should address in this
NOPR. Id. at 79725.
The preliminary TSD provided an overview of the activities DOE
undertook and discussed the comments DOE received in developing
standards for small electric motors. It also described the analytical
framework that DOE used and each analysis DOE performed up to that
point. These analyses included:
A market and technology assessment that addressed the
scope of this rulemaking, identified the potential classes of this
equipment, characterized the small electric motor market, and reviewed
techniques and approaches for improving the efficiency of small
electric motors;
A screening analysis that reviewed technology options to
improve small electric motor efficiency and weighed them against DOE's
four prescribed screening criteria;
An engineering analysis that estimated the manufacturer
selling prices (MSPs) associated with more energy efficient small
electric motors;
An energy use and end-use load characterization that
estimated the annual energy use of small electric motors;
A markup methodology that converted average MSPs to
consumer-installed prices;
An LCC analysis that calculated, at the consumer level,
the discounted savings in operating costs throughout the estimated
average life of the small electric motor, compared to any increase in
installed costs likely to result directly from the imposition of the
standard;
A PBP analysis that estimated the amount of time it takes
consumers to recover the higher purchase expense of more energy
efficient equipment through lower operating costs;
A shipments analysis that estimated shipments of small
electric motors over the time period examined in the analysis, which
was used in performing the national impact analysis;
A national impact analysis that assessed the aggregate
impacts at the national level of potential energy conservation
standards for small motors, as measured by the net present value of
total consumer economic impacts and national energy savings; and
A preliminary manufacturer impact analysis that took the
initial steps in evaluating the effects on manufacturers of new
efficiency standards.
The nature and function of the analyses in this rulemaking,
including the engineering analysis, energy-use characterization,
markups to determine installed prices, LCC and PBP analyses, and
national impact analysis, are summarized in the December 2008 notice.
Id. at 79725.
The public meeting announced in the December 2008 notice took place
on January 30, 2009. At this meeting, DOE presented the methodologies
and results of the analyses set forth in the preliminary TSD. The
comments received since publication of the December 2008 notice have
helped DOE resolve the issues in this rulemaking. The submitted
comments include a joint comment from Adjuvant Consulting, on behalf of
the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and Northwest Power and
Conservation Council (NPCC); a comment from Earthjustice; a second
joint comment from Energy Solutions, Pacific Gas and Electric Company
(PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), Southern California Gas
Company, and San Diego Gas and Electric (SDGE), a comment from NEMA);
and a comment from Edison Electric Institute (EEI). This NOPR quotes
and summarizes many of these comments and responds to the issues they
raised. A parenthetical reference at the end of a quotation or
paraphrase provides the location of the item in the public record.
III. General Discussion
A. Test Procedures
Final test procedures were published on July 7, 2009 (74 FR 32059).
The test procedures incorporated by reference Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) Standard 112-2004 (Test Method A
and Test Method B), IEEE Standard 114-2001, and Canadian Standards
Association (CAN/CSA) Standard C747-94.
In addition to incorporating by reference the above industry
standard test procedures, the small electric motors test procedure
final rule also codified the statutory definition for the term ``small
electric motor;'' clarified the definition of the term ``basic model''
and the relationship of the term to certain product classes and
compliance certification reporting requirements; and codified the
ability of manufacturers to use an alternative efficiency determination
method (AEDM) to reduce testing burden, while maintaining accuracy and
ensuring compliance with potential future energy conservation
standards. The test procedure notice also discussed matters of
laboratory accreditation, compliance certification, and enforcement of
energy conservation standards for small electric motors.
At the public meeting presenting the preliminary analyses for the
energy conservation standards rulemaking, WEG and Emerson voiced their
concern about enforcement of energy efficiency standards for small
electric motors. WEG stated that they believe that enforcement will
become especially problematic for those small electric motors that come
into the country embedded in a piece of equipment and are therefore
difficult to view the nameplate and to test. (WEG, Public Meeting
Transcript, No. 8.5 at pp. 325-26) Additionally, Emerson requested that
DOE provide further information on how it plans on enforcing standards
on small electric motors. (Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5
at p. 297) DOE notes certification and enforcement provisions for small
electric motors have not yet been developed. DOE plans
[[Page 61418]]
on proposing such provisions in a separate test procedure supplementary
NOPR, at which time DOE will welcome comment on how small electric
motor efficiency standards can be effectively enforced.
B. Technological Feasibility
1. General
In each standards rulemaking, DOE conducts a screening analysis,
which it bases on information it has gathered on all current technology
options and prototype designs that could improve the efficiency of the
product or equipment that is the subject of the rulemaking. In
consultation with manufacturers, design engineers, and other interested
parties, DOE develops a list of design options for consideration.
Consistent with its Process Rule, DOE then determines which of these
means for improving efficiency are technologically feasible.
``Technologies incorporated in commercially available products or in
working prototypes will be considered technologically feasible.'' 10
CFR 430, subpart C, appendix A, section 4(a)(4)(i).
DOE evaluates each of the acceptable design options in light of the
following criteria: (1) Technological feasibility; (2) practicability
to manufacture, install, or service; (3) adverse impacts on product
utility or availability; and (4) adverse impacts on health or safety.
Chapter 4 of the TSD contains a description of the screening analysis.
Also, section IV.B includes a discussion of the design options DOE
considered, those it screened out, and those that are the basis for the
trial standard levels (TSLs) in this rulemaking.
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
In the engineering analysis, DOE determined the maximum
technologically (max-tech) feasible efficiency levels for small
electric motors using the most efficient design parameters that lead to
the highest equipment efficiencies. (See TSD chapter 5.) Table III.1
lists the max-tech levels that DOE determined for this rulemaking.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP24NO09.002
DOE developed maximum technology efficiencies by creating motor
designs for each product class analyzed that use all of DOE's viable
design options. The efficiency levels shown in Table III.1 correspond
to designs that use a maximum increase in stack length, a copper rotor
design, an exotic low-loss steel type, a maximum slot fill percentage,
a change in run-capacitor rating (CSCR motors only), and an optimized
end ring design. All of the design options used to create these max-
tech motors remain in the analysis and are options that DOE considers
technologically feasible.
C. Energy Savings
1. Determination of Savings
DOE used its national energy savings (NES) spreadsheet to estimate
energy savings from new standards for the small electric motors that
are the subject of this rulemaking. (The NES analysis is described in
section IV.G and in chapter 10 of the TSD.) DOE forecasted energy
savings beginning in 2015, the year that new standards would go into
effect, and ending in 2045 for each TSL. DOE quantified the energy
savings attributable to each TSL as the difference in energy
consumption between the standards case and the base case. The base case
represents the forecast of energy consumption in the absence of new
energy conservation standards. DOE's base case assumes no change in the
efficiency distribution of motors between 2008 and the end of the
analysis period in 2045.
The NES spreadsheet model calculates the energy savings in site
energy expressed in kilowatt-hours (kWh). Site energy is the energy
directly consumed by small electric motors at the locations where they
are used. DOE reports national energy savings in terms of the source
energy savings, which is the savings in the energy that is used to
generate and transmit the site energy. To convert site energy to source
energy, DOE derived conversion factors, which change with time, from
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act scenario of the Energy
Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO
2009), which is the latest forecast available.
2. Significance of Savings
Standards for small electric motors must result in ``significant''
energy savings. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)) While the term ``significant'' is
not defined in the Act, the U.S. Court of Appeals, in Natural Resources
Defense Council v. Herrington, 768 F.2d 1355, 1373 (DC Cir. 1985),
indicated that Congress intended ``significant'' energy savings to be
savings that were not ``genuinely trivial.'' The energy savings for all
of the TSLs considered in this rulemaking are nontrivial, and therefore
DOE considers them significant.
D. Economic Justification
1. Specific Criteria
As noted earlier, EPCA provides seven factors to be evaluated in
determining whether an energy conservation standard is economically
justified. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)) The following sections discuss how
DOE has addressed each of those seven factors as part of its analysis.
DOE invites comments on each of these elements.
a. Economic Impact on Manufacturers and Consumers
In determining the impacts on manufacturers of a new or amended
standard, DOE first determines the quantitative impacts using an annual
cash-flow approach. This includes both a short-term assessment--based
on the cost and capital requirements during the period between the
announcement of a regulation and when the regulation comes into
effect--and a long-term assessment. The impacts analyzed include INPV
(which values the industry on the basis of expected future cash flows),
cash flows by year, changes in revenue and income, and other measures,
as appropriate. Second, DOE
[[Page 61419]]
analyzes and reports the impacts on different types of manufacturers,
paying particular attention to impacts on small manufacturers. Third,
DOE considers the impact of standards on domestic manufacturer
employment, manufacturing capacity, plant closures, and loss of capital
investment. Finally, DOE takes into account the cumulative impact of
different DOE regulations on manufacturers.
For small electric motor customers, measures of economic impact
include the changes in LCC and the PBP for each TSL. The LCC, which is
also separately specified as one of the seven factors to be considered
in determining the economic justification for a new or amended
standard, (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(II)) is discussed in the
following section.
b. Life-Cycle Costs
The LCC is the sum of the purchase price of a product (including
its installation) and the operating expense (including energy and
maintenance expenditures) discounted over the lifetime of the product.
DOE determines these costs by considering (1) total installed price to
the purchaser (including manufacturer selling price, distribution
channel markups, sales taxes, and installation cost), (2) the operating
expenses of the equipment (energy cost and maintenance and repair
cost), (3) equipment lifetime, and (4) a discount rate that reflects
the real cost of capital and puts the LCC in present value terms.
For each representative small electric motor product class, DOE
calculated both LCC and LCC savings for various efficiency levels. The
LCC analysis estimated the LCC for representative units used in various
representative applications, and accounted for a mixture of space-
constrained applications (20 percent) and non-space-constrained
applications (80 percent) in the commercial, agricultural, industrial,
and residential sectors.
To account for uncertainty and variability in specific inputs, such
as equipment lifetime, annual hours of operation, and discount rate,
DOE used a distribution of values with probabilities attached to each
value. DOE sampled a nationally representative set of input values from
the distributions to produce a range of LCC estimates. A distinct
advantage of this approach is that DOE can identify the percentage of
consumers achieving LCC savings or attaining certain payback values due
to an energy conservation standard. Thus, DOE presents the LCC savings
as a distribution, with a mean value and a range. DOE assumed in its
analysis that the consumer purchases the product in 2015.
c. Energy Savings
While significant conservation of energy is a separate statutory
requirement for imposing an energy conservation standard, DOE considers
the total projected energy savings that are expected to result directly
from the standard in determining the economic justification of that
standard. (See 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(III)) DOE used the NES
spreadsheet results in its consideration of total projected savings.
d. Lessening of Utility or Performance of Products
In establishing classes of equipment, and in evaluating design
options and the impact of potential standard levels, DOE sought to
develop standards for small electric motors that would not lessen the
utility or performance of this equipment. None of the TSLs DOE
considered would reduce the utility or performance of the small
electric motors under consideration in the rulemaking. (See 42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(IV).) The efficiency levels DOE considered maintain
motor performance and power factor (i.e., approximately 75 percent for
polyphase motors and greater than 60 percent for capacitor start
motors) so that consumer utility is not adversely affected. DOE
considered end-user size constraints by developing designs with size
increase restrictions (limited to a 20-percent increase in stack
length), as well as designs with less stringent constraints (100-
percent increase in stack length). Those designs adhering to the 20-
percent increase in stack length maintain all aspects of consumer
utility and were created for all efficiency levels, but they may become
very expensive at higher efficiency levels when compared with DOE's
other designs.
e. Impact of Any Lessening of Competition
DOE considers any lessening of competition likely to result from
standards. Accordingly, DOE has requested that the Attorney General
transmit to the Secretary, not later than 60 days after the publication
of this proposed rule, a written determination of the impact, if any,
of any lessening of competition likely to result from today's proposed
standards, together with an analysis of the nature and extent of such
impact. (See 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(V) and (B)(ii).) Along with
this request, DOE has transmitted a copy of today's proposed rule to
the Attorney General. DOE will address the Attorney General's
determination in the final rule.
f. Need of the Nation To Conserve Energy
The non-monetary benefits of the proposed standards are likely to
be reflected in reductions in the overall demand for electricity, which
will result in reduced costs for maintaining reliability of the
Nation's electricity system. DOE conducts a utility impact analysis to
estimate how standards may affect the Nation's power generation
capacity. This analysis captures the effects of efficiency improvements
on electricity consumption by the covered equipment, including the
reduction in electricity generation capacity by fuel type.
The proposed standards will also result in improvements to the
environment. In quantifying these improvements, DOE has defined a range
of primary energy conversion factors and associated emission reductions
based on the estimated level of power generation displaced by energy
conservation standards. DOE reports the environmental effects from each
TSL in the environmental assessment in chapter 15 of the TSD. (See 42
U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VI)).
g. Other Factors
The Act allows the Secretary of Energy, in determining whether a
standard is economically justified, to consider any other factors that
the Secretary deems to be relevant. (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i)(VII))
Under this provision, DOE considered three factors: (1) Harmonization
of the proposed standards with standards for similar products, (2) the
need of some consumers to continue to have access to CSIR motors, and
(3) the impacts of reactive power \6\ on electricity supply costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ In an alternating current power system, the reactive power
is the root mean square (RMS) voltage multiplied by the RMS current,
multiplied by the sine of the phase difference between the voltage
and the current. Reactive power occurs when the inductance or
capacitance of the load shifts the phase of the voltage relative to
the phase of the current. While reactive power does not consume
energy, it can increase losses and costs for the electricity
distribution system. Motors tend to create reactive power because
the windings in the motor coils have high inductance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Medium-sized polyphase general-purpose motors in three-digit frame
series with output power of 1 horsepower and above are currently
regulated under the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT 1992). DOE
proposes a standard for polyphase small motors with output power of 1
horsepower and above that is closely aligned with the
[[Page 61420]]
EPACT 1992 standard for medium motors.
Some of the highest TSLs for single-phase motors would lead to very
high prices for CSIR motors while maintaining lower prices for CSCR
motors, or vice versa. This shift in relative price may cause the
effective disappearance of the more expensive category of motors from
the market. In many applications, CSCR motors can replace CSIR motors.
However, in some instances, the space required for a second capacitor
is not available so that a CSCR motor may not be used to replace a CSIR
motor in some specific applications. Under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(4), the
Secretary may not prescribe a standard that is ``likely to result in
the unavailability in the United States in any covered product type (or
class).'' In today's notice, DOE proposes standards that it believes
will maintain a supply of both categories of motors in the single-phase
motor market.
DOE also notes that induction motors produce reactive power that
can result in increased electricity supply costs because reactive power
creates extra electrical currents that can require increased electrical
distribution capacity. Many individual customers are not charged
directly for this cost, but DOE did consider the economic benefits of
potential reactive power reductions when evaluating the national
benefits of the proposed standards.
2. Rebuttable Presumption
Section 325(o)(2)(B)(iii) of EPCA states that there is a rebuttable
presumption that an energy conservation standard is economically
justified if the additional cost to the consumer that meets the
standard level is less than three times the value of the first-year
energy (and as applicable, water) savings resulting from the standard,
as calculated under the applicable DOE test procedure. (42 U.S.C.
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(e)(1)) DOE's LCC and payback
period (PBP) analyses generate values that calculate the PBP for
customers of potential energy conservation standards, which includes,
but is not limited to, the 3-year PBP contemplated under the rebuttable
presumption test discussed above. However, DOE routinely conducts a
full economic analysis that considers the full range of impacts,
including those to the customer, manufacturer, Nation, and environment,
as required under 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)(i) and 42 U.S.C. 6316(e)(1).
The results of this analysis serve as the basis for DOE to evaluate
definitively the economic justification for a potential standard level
(thereby supporting or rebutting the results of any preliminary
determination of economic justification).
For comparison with the more detailed analysis results, DOE
provides the results of a rebuttable presumption payback calculation in
section V.B.1.d.
IV. Methodology and Discussion
DOE used three spreadsheet tools to estimate the impact of today's
proposed standards. The first spreadsheet calculates the LCCs and
payback periods of potential new energy conservation standards. The
second, the National Impact Analysis (NIA) spreadsheet, provides
shipment forecasts and then calculates national energy savings and net
present value impacts of potential new energy conservation standards.
DOE assessed manufacturer impacts largely through use of the third
spreadsheet, the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM).
Additionally, DOE estimated the impacts of energy efficiency
standards for small electric motors on utilities and the environment.
DOE used a version of EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for
the utility and environmental analyses. The NEMS model simulates the
energy sector of the U.S. economy. EIA uses NEMS to prepare its Annual
Energy Outlook, a widely known energy forecast for the United States.
The version of NEMS used for appliance standards analysis is called
NEMS-BT, and is based on the AEO 2009 version with minor modifications.
The NEMS offers a sophisticated picture of the effect of standards
because it accounts for the interactions between the various energy
supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole.
The EIA approves the use of the name ``NEMS'' to describe only an
AEO version of the model without any modification to code or data.
Because the present analysis entails some minor code modifications and
runs the model under various policy scenarios that deviate from AEO
assumptions, the name ``NEMS-BT'' refers to the model used here.
(``BT'' stands for DOE's Building Technologies Program.) For more
information on NEMS, refer to The National Energy Modeling System: An
Overview, DOE/EIA-0581 (98) (Feb. 1998), available at https://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/forecasting/058198.pdf.
A. Market and Technology Assessment
When beginning an energy conservation standards rulemaking, DOE
develops information that provides an overall picture of the market for
the equipment concerned, including the purpose of the equipment, the
industry structure, and market characteristics. This activity includes
both quantitative and qualitative assessments based primarily on
publicly available information. The subjects addressed in the market
and technology assessment for this rulemaking include product classes,
manufacturers, quantities, and types of equipment sold and offered for
sale; retail market trends; and regulatory and non-regulatory programs.
See chapter 3 of the TSD for further discussion of the market and
technology assessment.
1. Definition of Small Electric Motor
Except for small electric motors that are components of other
products covered by EPCA (see 42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(3)), DOE analyzed all
CSIR and CSCR single-phase motors and polyphase motors, including, for
example, both open and enclosed motors. DOE determined that standards
appear to be warranted for all of them. 71 FR 38807-08. However, DOE
has tentatively concluded that EPCA does not cover certain small motors
for which the determination concluded standards were warranted--the
most significant group being enclosed motors.
a. Motor Categories
EPCA's definition of ``small electric motor'' is tied to the
terminology and performance requirements in NEMA Standards Publication
MG1-1987 (MG1-1987). These requirements were established for (1)
general-purpose alternating-current motors, (2) single-speed induction
motors, and (3) the NEMA system for designating (two-digit) frames.
Single-speed induction motors, as delineated and described in MG1-1987,
fall into five categories: split-phase, shaded-pole, capacitor-start
(both CSIR and CSCR), permanent-split capacitor (PSC), and polyphase.
Therefore, only motors in these categories meet the single-speed
induction motor element of EPCA's definition of ``small electric
motor.''
In paragraph MG1-1.05, MG1-1987 defines ``general-purpose
alternating-current motor'' as follows:
A general-purpose alternating-current motor is an induction motor,
rated 200 horsepower and less, which incorporates all of the following:
(1) Open construction, (2) rated continuous duty, (3) service factor in
accordance with MG1-12.47, and (4) Class A insulation system with a
temperature rise as specified in MG1-12.42 for small motors or Class B
insulation system with a temperature rise as specified in MG1-12.43 for
medium motors. It is
[[Page 61421]]
designed in standard ratings with standard operating characteristics
and mechanical construction for use under usual service conditions
without restriction to a particular application or type of application.
During the public meeting held on January 30, 2009, Emerson Motor
Technologies commented that split-phase motors, shaded-pole motors, and
PSC motors do not meet the torque requirements for NEMA general-purpose
motors. Therefore, Emerson indicated that these motors should be
excluded from the scope of coverage for this rulemaking. (Emerson,
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5 at p. 38) \7\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ A notation in the form ``Emerson, Public Meeting Transcript,
No. 8.5 at p. 38'' refers to (1) a statement that was submitted by
Emerson Motor Technologies and is recorded in the docket ``Energy
Efficiency Program for Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment:
Public Meeting and Availability of the Framework Document for Small
Electric Motors,'' Docket Number EERE-2008-BT-STD-0007, as comment
number 8.5; and (2) a passage that appears on page 38 of the
transcript, ``Small Electric Motors Energy Conservation Standards
Preliminary Analyses Public Meeting,'' dated January 30, 2009.
Likewise, a notation in the form ``NEMA, No. 13 at p. 5'' refers to
(1) a statement by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association
and is recorded in the docket as comment number 13; and (2) a
passage that appears on page 5 of that document.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
DOE has examined this issue and, consistent with its position in
the preliminary analyses, agrees that split-phase, shaded-pole, or PSC
motors do not qualify as general-purpose alternating-current motors.
Because split-phase motors are usually designed for specific purposes
and applications, they are not designed ``for use under usual service
conditions without restriction to a particular application or type of
application.'' Additionally, split-phase, shaded-pole, and PSC motors
all fail to meet MG1-1987's torque and current requirements for
general-purpose motors, and hence are not ``designed in standard
ratings with standard operating characteristics.'' The requirements
that NEMA MG1-1987 defines for single-phase motors are locked-rotor
torque at MG1-12.32.2, locked-rotor current at MG1-12.43, and breakdown
torque at MG1-12.32. For small polyphase motors, NEMA MG1-1987 only
defines breakdown torque in MG1-12.37. Because of these restrictions,
none of the above motor categories are small electric motors as EPCA
defines that term. DOE's determination that standards are warranted for
small electric motors excluded the above motor categories, and none are
covered by today's proposed standards.
As for CSIR, CSCR, and polyphase motors, these motor categories do
meet the performance requirements set forth by the MG1-1987 definition
of ``general-purpose alternating-current motor'' and are therefore
covered by the EPCA definition of a small electric motor.
During the public meeting, PG&E, Earthjustice, and ACEEE expressed
concern that small electric motors not covered by the scope of coverage
of this rulemaking would be preempted from coverage as a result of
energy conservation for standards for the covered small electric
motors. (PG&E, Earthjustice, ACEEE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 8.5
at pp. 320-323) In their comment, E