Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Maryland; Attainment Demonstration for the Baltimore 8-Hour Ozone Moderate Nonattainment Area, 21594-21599 [E9-10682]
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Congress, through the Office of
Management and Budget explanations
when the Agency decides not to use
available and applicable voluntary
consensus standards.
EPA believes that this action is not
subject to requirements of Section 12(d)
of NTTAA because application of those
requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act.
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List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Carbon monoxide,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Incorporation
by reference, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile
organic compounds.
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
[EPA–R03–OAR–2008–0931; FRL–8901–7]
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629
(Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes federal
executive policy on environmental
justice. Its main provision directs
federal agencies, to the greatest extent
practicable and permitted by law, to
make environmental justice part of their
mission by identifying and addressing,
as appropriate, disproportionately high
and adverse human health or
environmental effects of their programs,
policies, and activities on minority
populations and low-income
populations in the United States.
EPA lacks the discretionary authority
to address environmental justice in this
proposed action. In reviewing SIP
submissions, EPA’s role is to approve or
disapprove state choices, based on the
criteria of the Clean Air Act.
Accordingly, this action merely
proposes to disapprove certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP
under section 110 and subchapter I, part
D of the Clean Air Act and will not inand-of itself create any new
requirements. Accordingly, it does not
provide EPA with the discretionary
authority to address, as appropriate,
disproportionate human health or
environmental effects, using practicable
and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898.
In addition, this proposed rule
pertaining to the Cecil County 8-hour
ozone attainment demonstration plan
does not have tribal implications as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because
the SIP is not approved to apply in
Indian country located in the state, and
EPA notes that it will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law.
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BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
40 CFR Part 52
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: April 28, 2009.
William C. Early,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region III.
[FR Doc. E9–10677 Filed 5–7–09; 8:45 am]
Approval and Promulgation of Air
Quality Implementation Plans;
Maryland; Attainment Demonstration
for the Baltimore 8-Hour Ozone
Moderate Nonattainment Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to
disapprove the ozone attainment
demonstration portion of a
comprehensive State Implementation
Plan (SIP) revision submitted by the
State of Maryland to meet the Clean Air
Act (CAA) requirements for attaining
the 8-hour ozone national ambient air
quality standard (NAAQS) for the
Baltimore moderate nonattainment area
(Baltimore Area). The Baltimore Area
comprises Baltimore City and the
surrounding Counties of Baltimore,
Carroll, Anne Arundel, Howard, and
Harford. EPA is proposing to disapprove
Maryland’s attainment demonstration of
the 8-hour ozone NAAQS for the
Baltimore Area because EPA has
determined that the photochemical
modeling does not demonstrate
attainment, and the weight of evidence
(WOE) analysis that Maryland uses to
support the attainment demonstration
does not provide the sufficient evidence
that Baltimore will attain the NAAQS by
the June 2010 deadline.
DATES: Written comments must be
received on or before June 8, 2009.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID Number EPA–
R03–OAR–2008–0931 by one of the
following methods:
A. www.regulations.gov. Follow the
on-line instructions for submitting
comments.
B. E-mail:
fernandez.cristina@epa.gov.
C. Mail: EPA–R03–OAR–2008–0931,
Cristina Fernandez, Chief, Air Quality
Planning Branch, Mailcode 3AP21, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Region III, 1650 Arch Street,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103.
D. Hand Delivery: At the previouslylisted EPA Region III address. Such
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deliveries are only accepted during the
Docket’s normal hours of operation, and
special arrangements should be made
for deliveries of boxed information.
Instructions: Direct your comments to
Docket ID No. EPA–R03–OAR–2008–
0931. EPA’s policy is that all comments
received will be included in the public
docket without change, and may be
made available online at
www.regulations.gov, including any
personal information provided, unless
the comment includes information
claimed to be Confidential Business
Information (CBI) or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Do not submit information that you
consider to be CBI or otherwise
protected through www.regulations.gov
or e-mail. The www.regulations.gov Web
site is an ‘‘anonymous access’’ system,
which means EPA will not know your
identity or contact information unless
you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send an e-mail
comment directly to EPA without going
through www.regulations.gov, your email address will be automatically
captured and included as part of the
comment that is placed in the public
docket and made available on the
Internet. If you submit an electronic
comment, EPA recommends that you
include your name and other contact
information in the body of your
comment and with any disk or CD–ROM
you submit. If EPA cannot read your
comment due to technical difficulties
and cannot contact you for clarification,
EPA may not be able to consider your
comment. Electronic files should avoid
the use of special characters, any form
of encryption, and be free of any defects
or viruses.
Docket: All documents in the
electronic docket are listed in the
www.regulations.gov index. Although
listed in the index, some information is
not publicly available, i.e., CBI or other
information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Certain other
material, such as copyrighted material,
is not placed on the Internet and will be
publicly available only in hard copy
form. Publicly available docket
materials are available either
electronically in www.regulations.gov or
in hard copy during normal business
hours at the Air Protection Division,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Region III, 1650 Arch Street,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103.
Copies of the State submittal are
available at the Maryland Department of
the Environment, 1800 Washington
Boulevard, Suite 705, Baltimore,
Maryland, 21230.
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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Maria Pino, (215) 814–2181, or by email at pino.maria@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
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Table of Contents
I. What Action Is EPA Proposing?
II. What Are the CAA Requirements for a
Moderate 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment
Area?
A. History and Time Frame for the State’s
Attainment Demonstration SIP
B. CAA Requirements
III. What Was Included in Maryland’s SIP
Submittals?
IV. What Is EPA’s Review of Maryland’s
Modeled Attainment Demonstration and
Weight of Evidence Analysis for the
Baltimore Area?
V. What Are the Consequences of a
Disapproved SIP?
A. What Are the CAA’s Provisions for
Sanctions?
B. What Are the CAA’s Federal
Implementation Plan (FIP) Ramifications
if a State Fails To Submit an Approvable
Plan?
C. What Are the Ramifications Regarding
Conformity?
VI. What Is EPA’s Conclusion?
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory
Planning and Review
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination
With Indian Tribal Governments
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of
Children From Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions
To Address Environmental Justice in
Minority Populations and Low-Income
Populations
I. What Action Is EPA Proposing?
EPA is proposing to disapprove the
SIP revision consisting of the 8-hour
ozone attainment demonstration plan
for the Baltimore Area, which comprises
Baltimore City and the surrounding
Counties of Baltimore, Carroll, Anne
Arundel, Howard, and Harford. This SIP
revision was submitted by the Maryland
Department of the Environment (MDE)
on June 4, 2007.
EPA is proposing to disapprove
Maryland’s 8-hour ozone attainment
demonstration plan for the Baltimore
Area because EPA has determined that
the photochemical modeling does not
demonstrate attainment, and the weight
of evidence analysis that Maryland uses
to support the attainment demonstration
does not provide the sufficient evidence
that Baltimore will attain the NAAQS by
the June 2010 deadline.
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EPA’s analysis and findings are
discussed in this proposed rulemaking
and a more detailed discussion is
contained in the Technical Support
Document (TSD) for this proposal which
is available online at
www.regulations.gov, Docket number
EPA–R03–OAR–2008–0931.
II. What Are the CAA Requirements for
a Moderate 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area?
A. History and Time Frame for the
State’s Attainment Demonstration SIP
In 1997, EPA revised the health-based
NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 0.08
parts per million (ppm) averaged over
an 8-hour time frame (‘‘8-hour ozone
standard’’).1 EPA set the 8-hour ozone
standard based on scientific evidence
demonstrating that ozone causes
adverse health effects at lower ozone
concentrations, and over longer periods
of time, than was understood when the
pre-existing 1-hour ozone standard was
set. EPA determined that the 8-hour
standard would be more protective of
human health, especially children and
adults who are active outdoors, and
individuals with a pre-existing
respiratory disease, such as asthma.
On April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), EPA
finalized its attainment/nonattainment
designations for areas across the country
with respect to the 8-hour ozone
standard. These actions became
effective on June 15, 2004. In addition,
EPA promulgated its Phase 1 Rule for
implementation of the 8-hour standard,
which provided how areas designated
nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone
standard would be classified. April 30,
2004 (69 FR 23951). Among those
nonattainment areas is the SIP revision
consisting of the 8-hour ozone
attainment demonstration plan for the
Baltimore Area. EPA’s Phase 2 8-hour
ozone implementation rule, published
on November 29, 2005 (70 FR 71612)
specifies that states must submit
attainment demonstrations for their
nonattainment areas to the EPA by no
later than three years from the effective
date of designation, that is, by June 15,
2007. See, 40 CFR 51.908(a).
B. CAA Requirements
Pursuant to Phase 1 of the 8-hour
ozone implementation rule, published
on April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), an area
was classified under subpart 2 of Title
I of the CAA based on its 8-hour design
value if it had a 1-hour design value at
1 In 2008, EPA promulgated a more stringent 8hour standard of 0.075 ppm. 73 FR 16436 (March
27, 2008). All references to the 8-hour ozone
standard in this rulemaking refer to the 8-hour
standard promulgated in 1997.
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or above 0.121 ppm. Based on this
criterion, the Baltimore 8-hour ozone
nonattainment area was classified under
subpart 2 as a moderate nonattainment
area. On November 29, 2005 (70 FR
71612), EPA published Phase 2 of the 8hour ozone implementation rule in
which it addresses the control
obligations that apply to areas classified
under subpart 2. Among other things,
the Phase 1 and 2 rules outline the SIP
requirements and deadlines for various
requirements in areas designated as
moderate nonattainment.
III. What Was Included in Maryland’s
SIP Submittals?
On June 4, 2007, Maryland submitted
a comprehensive 8-hour ozone SIP for
Baltimore. The SIP submittal included
an attainment demonstration plan, a
reasonable further progress (RFP) plan,
reasonably available control measures
analysis, contingency measures, on-road
motor vehicle emission budgets, and the
2002 base year emissions inventory.
These SIP revisions were subject to
notice and comment by the public. The
State did not receive any comments on
the proposed SIP revisions. Only the
attainment demonstration sections of
this SIP submittal are the subject in this
rulemaking. The other sections of this
SIP submittal will be addressed in a
separate rulemaking.
IV. What Is EPA’s Review of
Maryland’s Modeled Attainment
Demonstration and Weight of Evidence
Analysis for the Baltimore Area?
Section 110(a)(2)(K) of the Clean Air
Act requires states to prepare air quality
modeling to show how they will meet
ambient air quality standards. EPA
determined that states must use
photochemical grid modeling, or any
other analytical method determined by
the Administrator to be at least as
effective, to demonstrate attainment of
the ozone health-based standard in areas
classified as ‘moderate’ or above, and to
do so by the required attainment date.
See, 40 CFR 51.908(c). EPA specified
how areas would be classified with
regard to the 8-hour ozone standard set
by EPA in 1997. See, 40 CFR 51.903.
EPA followed these procedures and
classified the Baltimore Area as
moderate. See, 69 FR 23858 (April 30,
2004). The attainment date is June 2010
for moderate areas; therefore states must
achieve emission reductions by the
ozone season of 2009 in order for ozone
concentrations to be reduced, and
attainment achieved during the last
complete ozone season before the 2010
deadline.
As more fully described in the TSD,
the basic photochemical grid modeling
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used by Maryland in the Baltimore Area
SIP meets EPA’s guidelines, and when
used with the methods recommended in
EPA’s modeling guidance, is acceptable
to EPA. EPA’s photochemical modeling
guidance is found at Guidance on the
Use of Models and Other Analyses for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air
Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and
Regional Haze, EPA–454/B–07–002,
April 2007. Using EPA’s methods, the
photochemical grid model, containing
the modeled emission reduction
strategies prepared by Maryland and the
Ozone Transport Commission states,
predicts that the 2009 ozone design
value in the Baltimore Area to be 85
parts per billion (ppb). Thus, the
photochemical model predicts the
Baltimore Area will not reach the 84
ppb concentration level needed to show
attainment of the ozone standard by the
2009 ozone season.
EPA’s photochemical modeling
guidance is divided into two parts. One
part describes how to use a
photochemical grid model for ozone to
assess whether an area will come into
attainment of the air quality standard.
The second part of EPA’s photochemical
modeling guidance recommends that
states complement the photochemical
air quality modeling with ‘‘aggregate
supplemental analyses,’’ i.e., WOE
analyses, if the modeling results predict
the area to be close to (within several
parts per billion either above or below)
the ozone standard. A WOE analysis is
any set of alternative methods or
analyses that, when considered together,
and in combination with the modeling
analysis, supports the conclusion that
the NAAQS has been attained, even in
instances when the modeling results
alone do not predict attainment.
The Baltimore Area photochemical
grid modeling predicts a 2009 projected
design value just above the air quality
health standard (85 ppb vs. 84 ppb).
Because the modeling alone did not
predict attainment by the applicable
deadline, Maryland would need to
provide a WOE analysis that in the
aggregate provides evidence that the
model is overestimating future ozone
concentrations. As set forth at length in
the TSD at pages 8 through 13, the
modeling and air quality studies cited
by Maryland do not support claims that
the model over-predicts concentrations
in 2009. Maryland has suggested that
additional emission reduction strategies
that were not included in the modeling
may reduce ozone in the Baltimore
Area, but many of these reductions are
not yet in place or are voluntary and
mostly unquantifiable. EPA does not
believe these are likely to reduce ozone
enough to reach the standard by June
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2010. Furthermore, Maryland has not
committed to implement the voluntary
measures by the 2009 ozone season.
Consequently, EPA cannot attribute
much in the way of reduction to these
measures. This issue is discussed
further in the TSD, in the section
entitled ‘‘Benefits of Alternative/
Voluntary Control Strategies.’’
Air quality data through 2007 are far
above the level needed for attainment
and it is unlikely Maryland will be able
to implement enough emission controls
to reach the standard by 2010. The
present air quality (2007 design value 94
ppb, 2008 preliminary design value 91
ppb) also does not support the
hypothesis presented in the Maryland
WOE analysis that the models are overpredicting the 2009 ozone design
values. Present air quality
concentrations should be closer to the
standard since the Baltimore Area is
only two years from when it should be
attaining the standard.
The WOE analysis presented in the
Maryland SIP revision for the Baltimore
Area includes the following:
• An analysis of ambient air
monitoring measurements and trends;
• An analysis of the regional nature of
ozone transport;
• An analysis of model sensitivity to
emission changes; and
• An analysis of the potential benefits
of alternative control strategies (e.g., an
aggressive telecommuting strategy).
The information and calculations
provided in the Baltimore Area SIP
emphasizes methods or data that
support the claim that the
nonattainment area could attain the
standard by the deadline. EPA’s review
of the WOE analyses must evaluate a
spectrum of likely alternative
calculations, not only those that tend to
show the area will attain the ozone
standard. The method recommended by
EPA’s guidance and other reasonable
variations on EPA’s methods predict the
area will not attain the ozone standard
by 2010.
Maryland has provided considerable
information in their WOE analysis they
believe supports their case that
attainment of the ozone standard in
2010. For example, the Maryland SIP
revision cites a study of the 2003
Northeast Blackout (Marufu et al., 2004)
that suggests the model under-predicts
the amount of ozone reduction that
actually occurred during the electrical
blackout. During the blackout, measured
ozone was lower than expected because
some power plants and some other
major sources of ozone-forming
compounds were shut down. There are
at least two ways to determine what
ozone concentrations would have been
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if the major sources of ozone-forming
compounds operated on that day. One
way is to model the changes with the
power plants operating, and with the
power plants not operating and
comparing the results. The other is by
comparing the blackout day with a past
high ozone day with similar weather
and wind patterns, when the power
plants operated. The research cited by
Maryland compared the blackout
episode with days in the past with
ostensibly similar meteorology, when
the sources were operating. However,
EPA concludes that the past episode
when the power plants operated is not
similar enough to the blackout day to
draw a valid comparison. The
comparison day had winds coming from
areas that were not the ones most
affected by the blackout, so the
comparison is not convincing. There
may be other days that were more
similar to the meteorological patterns on
the blackout day, but the fact remains
that no two days are the same.
The emissions precursors, ozone, and
meteorological patterns on the day of
and the days preceding the blackout
will never occur the same way twice.
Maryland cited the work of other
researchers (Hu et al., 2006) who ran a
photochemical grid model on the
blackout day with and without the
blacked-out emissions. Based on this
work and the work cited above (Marufu
et al., 2004) Maryland observed the
modeled change in ozone was smaller
than the change in ozone measured
between the comparison day and the
blackout day. As a result, Maryland then
concluded that the model did not
reduce ozone as much between the
blackout and non-blackout emissions.
Thus, this may be a sign that the model
is not responsive enough to emission
reductions. However, the differences
between the modeled change and the
change between monitored days may be
because a sufficiently similar day was
not found to determine how much
ozone was really reduced on the
blackout day. Another point is that
these studies did not look at the effect
of the blackout on air quality in the
urban nonattainment areas like those
featured in this notice. There is no
comparison using modeling of these
blackout days and similar days with the
goal of determining the effect of blacked
out sources on ozone in the northeast
corridor’s urban areas or other studies
that would have attempted to explain
and perhaps quantify the extent of the
transport issue in the states’ application
of the photochemical grid model.
After careful review of these studies,
EPA has determined that there are
significant uncertainties in the
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Maryland SIP revision technical
analysis and therefore does not accept
Maryland’s conclusion that the
modeling system under-predicts
changes in ozone as emissions change.
Arguments in the Maryland SIP revision
that the model may not give full credit
for emission reductions are supported
by limited modeling work. Maryland
has not tested this hypothesis with its
own modeling. EPA believes any
additional ozone reduction, beyond
what is predicted by the photochemical
modeling, is likely to be far less than the
6 to 8 ppb claimed in the Maryland SIP
revision. Therefore, EPA believes that
Maryland’s adjustment to the
photochemical grid modeling results is
not supported by the information
provided.
EPA has determined this information
does not demonstrate that the proposed
adjustments to the photochemical grid
model’s attainment year forecast will
give a more accurate answer than the
calculations based on EPA’s
recommendations in its modeling
guidance. Monitored air quality data
seem to indicate that the model is
under-predicting the 2009 ozone design
value for the Baltimore Area.
The result of the photochemical grid
modeling analysis using EPA’s
recommended methods predicts that
Baltimore Area will not attain the
standard in the attainment year of 2009.
In response to this, Maryland has
offered a number of alternative methods
of using the modeling information and
additional control strategies that when
taken together might plausibly
demonstrate attainment.
In general, EPA’s conclusions
concerning the modeled attainment
demonstration and WOE analysis
provided in the Baltimore Area SIP can
be summarized as follows:
• The Baltimore Area modeling
applies an appropriate photochemical
grid model and follows EPA’s guidance
methods, but does not predict
attainment in June 2010.
• Regardless of the issues raised by
Maryland regarding the performance of
EPA’s recommended air quality models,
the air quality measured during 2007
exceeded the ozone standard by a
significant margin. Even a linear
comparison of the percentage of
additional emission reductions planned
by the state with the needed
improvement in air quality between
2007 and 2009 indicates it is unlikely
that air quality will improve enough to
meet the ozone standard by 2010.
Additionally, preliminary air quality
data from the 2008 ozone season does
not support demonstration of attainment
by 2010.
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• When comparing the measured
ozone concentrations in 2007 and
(preliminary) 2008 data to
concentrations predicted for 2009, using
EPA’s recommended application of the
photochemical grid modeling, the
photochemical grid model does not
exhibit the magnitude of inaccuracies
suggested in the Baltimore Area
attainment demonstration.
• In order to insure attainment,
Maryland suggests that there are
additional measures that will achieve
emission reductions which were not
included in the original photochemical
modeling analysis. These measures are
mainly voluntary and are not committed
to by Maryland as part of its attainment
demonstration. The amount of potential
air quality benefit from these measures
is difficult to estimate with any degree
of certainty. Based on EPA’s and
Maryland’s evaluation of the potential
ozone benefits these additional
measures may provide for the Baltimore
Area, attainment of the ozone standard
in 2010 cannot be achieved through the
adoption of these measures.
• The Baltimore Area attainment
demonstration greatly relied on research
which evaluated the impact of a
widespread power blackout to develop
an alternative approach to estimating
anticipated air quality improvements
from upwind power plants. While EPA
believes that this approach provides
some insight into the transport of ozone
precursors, a critical review of all the
research available to EPA leads EPA to
disagree with Maryland’s premise that
the 2009 modeled design values should
be adjusted downward for alleged
model under-predictions of ozone
concentration reductions from emission
reductions.
A detailed discussion of the EPA’s
evaluation of the modeled attainment
demonstration and WOE analysis
contained in the Maryland SIP revision
for the Baltimore Area is located in the
TSD entitled ‘‘Technical Support
Document for the Modeling and Weight
of Evidence (WOE) Portions of the
Document Entitled Baltimore
Nonattainment Area 8-Hour Ground
Level Ozone State Implementation Plan
(SIP) and Base Year Inventory, June 15,
2007.’’
EPA has carefully evaluated the
information provided by Maryland and
other information it deems relevant to
help predict what the air quality is
likely to be by the 2009 ozone season.
After careful consideration of all the
relevant information, EPA finds that
there is not sufficiently convincing
evidence that the Baltimore Area will
attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 2010.
The Maryland SIP revision for the
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Baltimore Area does not satisfy the
Clean Air Act requirement that State
Implementation Plans provide for
attainment of the NAAQS by the
applicable attainment date of June 2010.
V. What Are the Consequences of a
Disapproved SIP?
This section explains the
consequences of a disapproval of a SIP
under the CAA. The CAA provides for
the imposition of sanctions and the
promulgation of a Federal
Implementation Plan if states fail to
submit a plan that corrects any
deficiencies identified by EPA in its
disapproval.
A. What Are the CAA Provisions for
Sanctions?
If EPA disapproves a required SIP or
component of a SIP for an area
designated nonattainment, such as the
Attainment Demonstration SIP, section
179(a) provides for the imposition of
sanctions unless the deficiency is
corrected within 18 months of the final
rulemaking of disapproval. The first
sanction would apply 18 months after
EPA disapproves the SIP if a State fails
to make the required submittal which
EPA proposes to fully or conditionally
approve within that time. Under EPA’s
sanctions regulations, 40 CFR 52.31, the
first sanction would be 2:1 offsets for
sources subject to the new source
review requirements under section 173
of the CAA. If the State has still failed
to submit a SIP for which EPA proposes
full or conditional approval 6 months
after the first sanction is imposed, the
second sanction will apply. The second
sanction is a limitation on the receipt of
Federal highway funds.
B. What Are the CAA’s FIP
Ramifications if a State Fails To Submit
an Approvable Plan?
In addition to sanctions, if EPA finds
that a State failed to submit the required
SIP revision or disapproves the required
SIP revision, or a portion thereof, EPA
must promulgate a FIP no later than 2
years from the date of the finding if the
deficiency has not been corrected
within that time period.
C. What Are the Ramifications
Regarding Conformity?
One consequence of EPA’s
disapproval of a control strategy SIP is
a conformity freeze whereby affected
Metropolitan Planning Organizations
(MPOs) cannot make new conformity
determinations on long range
transportation plans and transportation
improvement programs (TIPs). If we
finalize the disapproval of the
attainment demonstration SIP, a
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conformity freeze will be in place as of
the effective date of the disapproval
without a protective finding of the
budget. See, 40 CFR 93.120(a)(2). This
means that no transportation plan, TIP,
or project not in the first four years of
the currently conforming transportation
plan and TIP or that meet the
requirements of 40 CFR 93.104(f) during
a 12-month lapse grace period 2 may be
found to conform until another
attainment demonstration SIP is
submitted and the motor vehicle
emissions budgets are found adequate or
the attainment demonstration is
approved. In addition, if the highway
funding sanction is implemented, the
conformity status of the transportation
plan and TIP will lapse on the date of
implementation of the highway
sanctions. During a conformity lapse,
only projects that are exempt from
transportation conformity (e.g., road
resurfacing, safety projects,
reconstruction of bridges without
adding travel lanes, bicycle and
pedestrian facilities, etc.), transportation
control measures that are in the
approved SIP and project phases that
were approved prior to the start of the
lapse can proceed during the lapse. No
new project-level approvals or
conformity determinations can be made
and no new transportation plan or TIP
may be found to conform until another
attainment demonstration SIP is
submitted and the motor vehicle
emissions budget is found adequate.
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VI. What Is EPA’s Conclusion?
EPA is proposing to disapprove the 8hour ozone attainment demonstration
plan for the Baltimore moderate
nonattainment area submitted by MDE
on June 4, 2007, because Baltimore’s
demonstration does not in the aggregate
provide sufficient evidence for EPA to
conclude that the Baltimore Area will
attain the NAAQS by the June 2010
deadline in spite of modeling results
that do not predict attainment. EPA is
deferring action at this time on other SIP
elements submitted by Maryland that
are related to the attainment
demonstration, specifically, the RFP
plan, reasonably available control
measures analysis, contingency
measures, on-road motor vehicle
emission budgets, and the 2002 base
year emissions inventory, which will be
addressed in separate rulemakings. EPA
is soliciting public comments on the
issues discussed in this document.
2 Additional information on the implementation
of the lapse grace period can be found in the final
transportation conformity rule published on
January 24, 2008 (73 FR 4423–4425).
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17:31 May 07, 2009
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These comments will be considered
before taking final action.
VII. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory
Planning and Review
This action is not a ‘‘significant
regulatory action’’ under the terms of
Executive Order (EO) 12866 (58 FR
51735, October 4, 1993) and is therefore
not subject to review under the EO.
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This action does not impose an
information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction
Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq., because this
proposed SIP disapproval under section
110 and subchapter I, part D of the
Clean Air Act will not in and of itself
create any new information collection
burdens but simply disapproves certain
State requirements for inclusion into the
SIP. Burden is defined at 5 CFR
1320.3(b).
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
generally requires an agency to conduct
a regulatory flexibility analysis of any
rule subject to notice and comment
rulemaking requirements unless the
agency certifies that the rule will not
have a significant economic impact on
a substantial number of small entities.
Small entities include small businesses,
small not-for-profit enterprises, and
small governmental jurisdictions. For
purposes of assessing the impacts of
today’s rule on small entities, small
entity is defined as: (1) A small business
as defined by the Small Business
Administration’s (SBA) regulations at 13
CFR 121.201; (2) a small governmental
jurisdiction that is a government of a
city, county, town, school district or
special district with a population of less
than 50,000; and (3) a small
organization that is any not-for-profit
enterprise which is independently
owned and operated and is not
dominant in its field.
After considering the economic
impacts of today’s proposed rule on
small entities, I certify that this action
will not have a significant impact on a
substantial number of small entities.
This rule does not impose any
requirements or create impacts on small
entities. This proposed SIP disapproval
under section 110 and subchapter I, part
D of the Clean Air Act will not in and
of itself create any new requirements
but simply disapproves certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP.
Accordingly, it affords no opportunity
for EPA to fashion for small entities less
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Fmt 4702
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burdensome compliance or reporting
requirements or timetables or
exemptions from all or part of the rule.
The fact that the Clean Air Act
prescribes that various consequences
(e.g., higher offset requirements) may or
will flow from this disapproval does not
mean that EPA either can or must
conduct a regulatory flexibility analysis
for this action. Therefore, this action
will not have a significant economic
impact on a substantial number of small
entities.
We continue to be interested in the
potential impacts of this proposed rule
on small entities and welcome
comments on issues related to such
impacts.
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action contains no Federal
mandates under the provisions of Title
II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform
Act of 1995 (UMRA), 2 U.S.C. 1531–
1538 ‘‘for State, local, or tribal
governments or the private sector.’’ EPA
has determined that the proposed
disapproval action does not include a
Federal mandate that may result in
estimated costs of $100 million or more
to either State, local, or tribal
governments in the aggregate, or to the
private sector. This action proposes to
disapprove pre-existing requirements
under State or local law, and imposes
no new requirements. Accordingly, no
additional costs to State, local, or tribal
governments, or to the private sector,
result from this action.
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
Executive Order 13132, entitled
‘‘Federalism’’ (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999), requires EPA to develop an
accountable process to ensure
‘‘meaningful and timely input by State
and local officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have federalism
implications.’’ ‘‘Policies that have
federalism implications’’ is defined in
the Executive Order to include
regulations that have ‘‘substantial direct
effects on the States, on the relationship
between the national government and
the States, or on the distribution of
power and responsibilities among the
various levels of government.’’
This action does not have federalism
implications. It will not have substantial
direct effects on the States, on the
relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the
distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of government, as specified in
Executive Order 13132, because it
merely disapproves certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP
and does not alter the relationship or
E:\FR\FM\08MYP1.SGM
08MYP1
Federal Register / Vol. 74, No. 88 / Friday, May 8, 2009 / Proposed Rules
the distribution of power and
responsibilities established in the Clean
Air Act. Thus, Executive Order 13132
does not apply to this action.
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination
With Indian Tribal Governments
This action does not have tribal
implications, as specified in Executive
Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9,
2000), because the SIP EPA is proposing
to disapprove would not apply in Indian
country located in the state, and EPA
notes that it will not impose substantial
direct costs on tribal governments or
preempt tribal law. Thus, Executive
Order 13175 does not apply to this
action.
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of
Children from Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks
EPA interprets EO 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997) as applying only
to those regulatory actions that concern
health or safety risks, such that the
analysis required under section 5–501 of
the EO has the potential to influence the
regulation. This action is not subject to
EO 13045 because it because it is not an
economically significant regulatory
action based on health or safety risks
subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997). This proposed
SIP disapproval under section 110 and
subchapter I, part D of the Clean Air Act
will not in and of itself create any new
regulations but simply disapproves
certain State requirements for inclusion
into the SIP.
pwalker on PROD1PC71 with PROPOSALS
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use
This action is not subject to Executive
Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22,
2001) because it is not a significant
regulatory action under Executive Order
12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (‘‘NTTAA’’), Public Law No.
104–113, 12(d) (15 U.S.C. 272 note)
directs EPA to use voluntary consensus
standards in its regulatory activities
unless to do so would be inconsistent
with applicable law or otherwise
impractical. Voluntary consensus
standards are technical standards (e.g.,
materials specifications, test methods,
sampling procedures, and business
practices) that are developed or adopted
by voluntary consensus standards
bodies. NTTAA directs EPA to provide
Congress, through the Office of
Management and Budget, explanations
VerDate Nov<24>2008
17:31 May 07, 2009
Jkt 217001
when the Agency decides not to use
available and applicable voluntary
consensus standards.
EPA believes that this action is not
subject to requirements of Section 12(d)
of NTTAA because application of those
requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629
(Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes federal
executive policy on environmental
justice. Its main provision directs
federal agencies, to the greatest extent
practicable and permitted by law, to
make environmental justice part of their
mission by identifying and addressing,
as appropriate, disproportionately high
and adverse human health or
environmental effects of their programs,
policies, and activities on minority
populations and low-income
populations in the United States.
EPA lacks the discretionary authority
to address environmental justice in this
proposed action. In reviewing SIP
submissions, EPA’s role is to approve or
disapprove state choices, based on the
criteria of the Clean Air Act.
Accordingly, this action merely
proposes to disapprove certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP
under section 110 and subchapter I, part
D of the Clean Air Act and will not in
and of itself create any new
requirements. Accordingly, it does not
provide EPA with the discretionary
authority to address, as appropriate,
disproportionate human health or
environmental effects, using practicable
and legally permissible methods, under
Executive Order 12898.
In addition, this proposed rule
pertaining to the Baltimore 8-hour
ozone attainment demonstration plan
does not have tribal implications as
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65
FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because
the SIP is not approved to apply in
Indian country located in the state, and
EPA notes that it will not impose
substantial direct costs on tribal
governments or preempt tribal law.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Carbon monoxide,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Incorporation
by reference, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile
organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
PO 00000
Frm 00039
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21599
Dated: April 28, 2009.
William C. Early,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region III.
[FR Doc. E9–10682 Filed 5–7–09; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA–R03–OAR–2008–0930; FRL–8901–6]
Approval and Promulgation of Air
Quality Implementation Plans;
Delaware; Attainment Demonstration
for the Philadelphia-WilmingtonAtlantic City Moderate 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to
disapprove the ozone attainment
demonstration portion of a
comprehensive State Implementation
Plan (SIP) revision submitted by the
State of Delaware to meet the Clean Air
Act (CAA) requirements for attaining
the 8-hour ozone national ambient air
quality standard (NAAQS) for the
Delaware portion of the PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City moderate
nonattainment area (Philadelphia Area).
EPA is proposing to disapprove
Delaware’s attainment demonstration of
the 8-hour ozone NAAQS for the
Philadelphia Area because EPA has
determined that the photochemical
modeling does not demonstrate
attainment, and the weight of evidence
analysis that Delaware uses to support
the attainment demonstration does not
provide the sufficient evidence that the
Delaware portion of the Philadelphia
nonattainment area will attain the
NAAQS by the June 2010 deadline.
DATES: Written comments must be
received on or before June 8, 2009.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID Number EPA–
R03–OAR–2008–0930 by one of the
following methods:
A. www.regulations.gov. Follow the
on-line instructions for submitting
comments.
B. E-mail:
fernandez.cristina@epa.gov.
C. Mail: EPA–R03–OAR–2008–0930,
Cristina Fernandez, Chief, Air Quality
Planning Branch, Mailcode 3AP21, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency,
Region III, 1650 Arch Street,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103.
D. Hand Delivery: At the previouslylisted EPA Region III address. Such
E:\FR\FM\08MYP1.SGM
08MYP1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 74, Number 88 (Friday, May 8, 2009)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 21594-21599]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E9-10682]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R03-OAR-2008-0931; FRL-8901-7]
Approval and Promulgation of Air Quality Implementation Plans;
Maryland; Attainment Demonstration for the Baltimore 8-Hour Ozone
Moderate Nonattainment Area
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to disapprove the ozone attainment
demonstration portion of a comprehensive State Implementation Plan
(SIP) revision submitted by the State of Maryland to meet the Clean Air
Act (CAA) requirements for attaining the 8-hour ozone national ambient
air quality standard (NAAQS) for the Baltimore moderate nonattainment
area (Baltimore Area). The Baltimore Area comprises Baltimore City and
the surrounding Counties of Baltimore, Carroll, Anne Arundel, Howard,
and Harford. EPA is proposing to disapprove Maryland's attainment
demonstration of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS for the Baltimore Area because
EPA has determined that the photochemical modeling does not demonstrate
attainment, and the weight of evidence (WOE) analysis that Maryland
uses to support the attainment demonstration does not provide the
sufficient evidence that Baltimore will attain the NAAQS by the June
2010 deadline.
DATES: Written comments must be received on or before June 8, 2009.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID Number EPA-
R03-OAR-2008-0931 by one of the following methods:
A. www.regulations.gov. Follow the on-line instructions for
submitting comments.
B. E-mail: fernandez.cristina@epa.gov.
C. Mail: EPA-R03-OAR-2008-0931, Cristina Fernandez, Chief, Air
Quality Planning Branch, Mailcode 3AP21, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region III, 1650 Arch Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103.
D. Hand Delivery: At the previously-listed EPA Region III address.
Such deliveries are only accepted during the Docket's normal hours of
operation, and special arrangements should be made for deliveries of
boxed information.
Instructions: Direct your comments to Docket ID No. EPA-R03-OAR-
2008-0931. EPA's policy is that all comments received will be included
in the public docket without change, and may be made available online
at www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided,
unless the comment includes information claimed to be Confidential
Business Information (CBI) or other information whose disclosure is
restricted by statute. Do not submit information that you consider to
be CBI or otherwise protected through www.regulations.gov or e-mail.
The www.regulations.gov Web site is an ``anonymous access'' system,
which means EPA will not know your identity or contact information
unless you provide it in the body of your comment. If you send an e-
mail comment directly to EPA without going through www.regulations.gov,
your e-mail address will be automatically captured and included as part
of the comment that is placed in the public docket and made available
on the Internet. If you submit an electronic comment, EPA recommends
that you include your name and other contact information in the body of
your comment and with any disk or CD-ROM you submit. If EPA cannot read
your comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for
clarification, EPA may not be able to consider your comment. Electronic
files should avoid the use of special characters, any form of
encryption, and be free of any defects or viruses.
Docket: All documents in the electronic docket are listed in the
www.regulations.gov index. Although listed in the index, some
information is not publicly available, i.e., CBI or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Certain other material, such
as copyrighted material, is not placed on the Internet and will be
publicly available only in hard copy form. Publicly available docket
materials are available either electronically in www.regulations.gov or
in hard copy during normal business hours at the Air Protection
Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, 1650 Arch
Street, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103. Copies of the State submittal
are available at the Maryland Department of the Environment, 1800
Washington Boulevard, Suite 705, Baltimore, Maryland, 21230.
[[Page 21595]]
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Maria Pino, (215) 814-2181, or by e-
mail at pino.maria@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. What Action Is EPA Proposing?
II. What Are the CAA Requirements for a Moderate 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area?
A. History and Time Frame for the State's Attainment
Demonstration SIP
B. CAA Requirements
III. What Was Included In Maryland's SIP Submittals?
IV. What Is EPA's Review of Maryland's Modeled Attainment
Demonstration and Weight of Evidence Analysis for the Baltimore
Area?
V. What Are the Consequences of a Disapproved SIP?
A. What Are the CAA's Provisions for Sanctions?
B. What Are the CAA's Federal Implementation Plan (FIP)
Ramifications if a State Fails To Submit an Approvable Plan?
C. What Are the Ramifications Regarding Conformity?
VI. What Is EPA's Conclusion?
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory Planning and Review
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children From
Environmental Health Risks and Safety Risks
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That Significantly Affect
Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use
I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address
Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income
Populations
I. What Action Is EPA Proposing?
EPA is proposing to disapprove the SIP revision consisting of the
8-hour ozone attainment demonstration plan for the Baltimore Area,
which comprises Baltimore City and the surrounding Counties of
Baltimore, Carroll, Anne Arundel, Howard, and Harford. This SIP
revision was submitted by the Maryland Department of the Environment
(MDE) on June 4, 2007.
EPA is proposing to disapprove Maryland's 8-hour ozone attainment
demonstration plan for the Baltimore Area because EPA has determined
that the photochemical modeling does not demonstrate attainment, and
the weight of evidence analysis that Maryland uses to support the
attainment demonstration does not provide the sufficient evidence that
Baltimore will attain the NAAQS by the June 2010 deadline.
EPA's analysis and findings are discussed in this proposed
rulemaking and a more detailed discussion is contained in the Technical
Support Document (TSD) for this proposal which is available online at
www.regulations.gov, Docket number EPA-R03-OAR-2008-0931.
II. What Are the CAA Requirements for a Moderate 8-Hour Ozone
Nonattainment Area?
A. History and Time Frame for the State's Attainment Demonstration SIP
In 1997, EPA revised the health-based NAAQS for ozone, setting it
at 0.08 parts per million (ppm) averaged over an 8-hour time frame
(``8-hour ozone standard'').\1\ EPA set the 8-hour ozone standard based
on scientific evidence demonstrating that ozone causes adverse health
effects at lower ozone concentrations, and over longer periods of time,
than was understood when the pre-existing 1-hour ozone standard was
set. EPA determined that the 8-hour standard would be more protective
of human health, especially children and adults who are active
outdoors, and individuals with a pre-existing respiratory disease, such
as asthma.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ In 2008, EPA promulgated a more stringent 8-hour standard of
0.075 ppm. 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). All references to the 8-
hour ozone standard in this rulemaking refer to the 8-hour standard
promulgated in 1997.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
On April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), EPA finalized its attainment/
nonattainment designations for areas across the country with respect to
the 8-hour ozone standard. These actions became effective on June 15,
2004. In addition, EPA promulgated its Phase 1 Rule for implementation
of the 8-hour standard, which provided how areas designated
nonattainment for the 8-hour ozone standard would be classified. April
30, 2004 (69 FR 23951). Among those nonattainment areas is the SIP
revision consisting of the 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration plan
for the Baltimore Area. EPA's Phase 2 8-hour ozone implementation rule,
published on November 29, 2005 (70 FR 71612) specifies that states must
submit attainment demonstrations for their nonattainment areas to the
EPA by no later than three years from the effective date of
designation, that is, by June 15, 2007. See, 40 CFR 51.908(a).
B. CAA Requirements
Pursuant to Phase 1 of the 8-hour ozone implementation rule,
published on April 30, 2004 (69 FR 23951), an area was classified under
subpart 2 of Title I of the CAA based on its 8-hour design value if it
had a 1-hour design value at or above 0.121 ppm. Based on this
criterion, the Baltimore 8-hour ozone nonattainment area was classified
under subpart 2 as a moderate nonattainment area. On November 29, 2005
(70 FR 71612), EPA published Phase 2 of the 8-hour ozone implementation
rule in which it addresses the control obligations that apply to areas
classified under subpart 2. Among other things, the Phase 1 and 2 rules
outline the SIP requirements and deadlines for various requirements in
areas designated as moderate nonattainment.
III. What Was Included in Maryland's SIP Submittals?
On June 4, 2007, Maryland submitted a comprehensive 8-hour ozone
SIP for Baltimore. The SIP submittal included an attainment
demonstration plan, a reasonable further progress (RFP) plan,
reasonably available control measures analysis, contingency measures,
on-road motor vehicle emission budgets, and the 2002 base year
emissions inventory. These SIP revisions were subject to notice and
comment by the public. The State did not receive any comments on the
proposed SIP revisions. Only the attainment demonstration
sections of this SIP submittal are the subject in this rulemaking. The
other sections of this SIP submittal will be addressed in a separate
rulemaking.
IV. What Is EPA's Review of Maryland's Modeled Attainment Demonstration
and Weight of Evidence Analysis for the Baltimore Area?
Section 110(a)(2)(K) of the Clean Air Act requires states to
prepare air quality modeling to show how they will meet ambient air
quality standards. EPA determined that states must use photochemical
grid modeling, or any other analytical method determined by the
Administrator to be at least as effective, to demonstrate attainment of
the ozone health-based standard in areas classified as `moderate' or
above, and to do so by the required attainment date. See, 40 CFR
51.908(c). EPA specified how areas would be classified with regard to
the 8-hour ozone standard set by EPA in 1997. See, 40 CFR 51.903. EPA
followed these procedures and classified the Baltimore Area as
moderate. See, 69 FR 23858 (April 30, 2004). The attainment date is
June 2010 for moderate areas; therefore states must achieve emission
reductions by the ozone season of 2009 in order for ozone
concentrations to be reduced, and attainment achieved during the last
complete ozone season before the 2010 deadline.
As more fully described in the TSD, the basic photochemical grid
modeling
[[Page 21596]]
used by Maryland in the Baltimore Area SIP meets EPA's guidelines, and
when used with the methods recommended in EPA's modeling guidance, is
acceptable to EPA. EPA's photochemical modeling guidance is found at
Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating
Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and
Regional Haze, EPA-454/B-07-002, April 2007. Using EPA's methods, the
photochemical grid model, containing the modeled emission reduction
strategies prepared by Maryland and the Ozone Transport Commission
states, predicts that the 2009 ozone design value in the Baltimore Area
to be 85 parts per billion (ppb). Thus, the photochemical model
predicts the Baltimore Area will not reach the 84 ppb concentration
level needed to show attainment of the ozone standard by the 2009 ozone
season.
EPA's photochemical modeling guidance is divided into two parts.
One part describes how to use a photochemical grid model for ozone to
assess whether an area will come into attainment of the air quality
standard. The second part of EPA's photochemical modeling guidance
recommends that states complement the photochemical air quality
modeling with ``aggregate supplemental analyses,'' i.e., WOE analyses,
if the modeling results predict the area to be close to (within several
parts per billion either above or below) the ozone standard. A WOE
analysis is any set of alternative methods or analyses that, when
considered together, and in combination with the modeling analysis,
supports the conclusion that the NAAQS has been attained, even in
instances when the modeling results alone do not predict attainment.
The Baltimore Area photochemical grid modeling predicts a 2009
projected design value just above the air quality health standard (85
ppb vs. 84 ppb). Because the modeling alone did not predict attainment
by the applicable deadline, Maryland would need to provide a WOE
analysis that in the aggregate provides evidence that the model is
overestimating future ozone concentrations. As set forth at length in
the TSD at pages 8 through 13, the modeling and air quality studies
cited by Maryland do not support claims that the model over-predicts
concentrations in 2009. Maryland has suggested that additional emission
reduction strategies that were not included in the modeling may reduce
ozone in the Baltimore Area, but many of these reductions are not yet
in place or are voluntary and mostly unquantifiable. EPA does not
believe these are likely to reduce ozone enough to reach the standard
by June 2010. Furthermore, Maryland has not committed to implement the
voluntary measures by the 2009 ozone season. Consequently, EPA cannot
attribute much in the way of reduction to these measures. This issue is
discussed further in the TSD, in the section entitled ``Benefits of
Alternative/Voluntary Control Strategies.''
Air quality data through 2007 are far above the level needed for
attainment and it is unlikely Maryland will be able to implement enough
emission controls to reach the standard by 2010. The present air
quality (2007 design value 94 ppb, 2008 preliminary design value 91
ppb) also does not support the hypothesis presented in the Maryland WOE
analysis that the models are over-predicting the 2009 ozone design
values. Present air quality concentrations should be closer to the
standard since the Baltimore Area is only two years from when it should
be attaining the standard.
The WOE analysis presented in the Maryland SIP revision for the
Baltimore Area includes the following:
An analysis of ambient air monitoring measurements and
trends;
An analysis of the regional nature of ozone transport;
An analysis of model sensitivity to emission changes; and
An analysis of the potential benefits of alternative
control strategies (e.g., an aggressive telecommuting strategy).
The information and calculations provided in the Baltimore Area SIP
emphasizes methods or data that support the claim that the
nonattainment area could attain the standard by the deadline. EPA's
review of the WOE analyses must evaluate a spectrum of likely
alternative calculations, not only those that tend to show the area
will attain the ozone standard. The method recommended by EPA's
guidance and other reasonable variations on EPA's methods predict the
area will not attain the ozone standard by 2010.
Maryland has provided considerable information in their WOE
analysis they believe supports their case that attainment of the ozone
standard in 2010. For example, the Maryland SIP revision cites a study
of the 2003 Northeast Blackout (Marufu et al., 2004) that suggests the
model under-predicts the amount of ozone reduction that actually
occurred during the electrical blackout. During the blackout, measured
ozone was lower than expected because some power plants and some other
major sources of ozone-forming compounds were shut down. There are at
least two ways to determine what ozone concentrations would have been
if the major sources of ozone-forming compounds operated on that day.
One way is to model the changes with the power plants operating, and
with the power plants not operating and comparing the results. The
other is by comparing the blackout day with a past high ozone day with
similar weather and wind patterns, when the power plants operated. The
research cited by Maryland compared the blackout episode with days in
the past with ostensibly similar meteorology, when the sources were
operating. However, EPA concludes that the past episode when the power
plants operated is not similar enough to the blackout day to draw a
valid comparison. The comparison day had winds coming from areas that
were not the ones most affected by the blackout, so the comparison is
not convincing. There may be other days that were more similar to the
meteorological patterns on the blackout day, but the fact remains that
no two days are the same.
The emissions precursors, ozone, and meteorological patterns on the
day of and the days preceding the blackout will never occur the same
way twice.
Maryland cited the work of other researchers (Hu et al., 2006) who
ran a photochemical grid model on the blackout day with and without the
blacked-out emissions. Based on this work and the work cited above
(Marufu et al., 2004) Maryland observed the modeled change in ozone was
smaller than the change in ozone measured between the comparison day
and the blackout day. As a result, Maryland then concluded that the
model did not reduce ozone as much between the blackout and non-
blackout emissions. Thus, this may be a sign that the model is not
responsive enough to emission reductions. However, the differences
between the modeled change and the change between monitored days may be
because a sufficiently similar day was not found to determine how much
ozone was really reduced on the blackout day. Another point is that
these studies did not look at the effect of the blackout on air quality
in the urban nonattainment areas like those featured in this notice.
There is no comparison using modeling of these blackout days and
similar days with the goal of determining the effect of blacked out
sources on ozone in the northeast corridor's urban areas or other
studies that would have attempted to explain and perhaps quantify the
extent of the transport issue in the states' application of the
photochemical grid model.
After careful review of these studies, EPA has determined that
there are significant uncertainties in the
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Maryland SIP revision technical analysis and therefore does not accept
Maryland's conclusion that the modeling system under-predicts changes
in ozone as emissions change. Arguments in the Maryland SIP revision
that the model may not give full credit for emission reductions are
supported by limited modeling work. Maryland has not tested this
hypothesis with its own modeling. EPA believes any additional ozone
reduction, beyond what is predicted by the photochemical modeling, is
likely to be far less than the 6 to 8 ppb claimed in the Maryland SIP
revision. Therefore, EPA believes that Maryland's adjustment to the
photochemical grid modeling results is not supported by the information
provided.
EPA has determined this information does not demonstrate that the
proposed adjustments to the photochemical grid model's attainment year
forecast will give a more accurate answer than the calculations based
on EPA's recommendations in its modeling guidance. Monitored air
quality data seem to indicate that the model is under-predicting the
2009 ozone design value for the Baltimore Area.
The result of the photochemical grid modeling analysis using EPA's
recommended methods predicts that Baltimore Area will not attain the
standard in the attainment year of 2009. In response to this, Maryland
has offered a number of alternative methods of using the modeling
information and additional control strategies that when taken together
might plausibly demonstrate attainment.
In general, EPA's conclusions concerning the modeled attainment
demonstration and WOE analysis provided in the Baltimore Area SIP can
be summarized as follows:
The Baltimore Area modeling applies an appropriate
photochemical grid model and follows EPA's guidance methods, but does
not predict attainment in June 2010.
Regardless of the issues raised by Maryland regarding the
performance of EPA's recommended air quality models, the air quality
measured during 2007 exceeded the ozone standard by a significant
margin. Even a linear comparison of the percentage of additional
emission reductions planned by the state with the needed improvement in
air quality between 2007 and 2009 indicates it is unlikely that air
quality will improve enough to meet the ozone standard by 2010.
Additionally, preliminary air quality data from the 2008 ozone season
does not support demonstration of attainment by 2010.
When comparing the measured ozone concentrations in 2007
and (preliminary) 2008 data to concentrations predicted for 2009, using
EPA's recommended application of the photochemical grid modeling, the
photochemical grid model does not exhibit the magnitude of inaccuracies
suggested in the Baltimore Area attainment demonstration.
In order to insure attainment, Maryland suggests that
there are additional measures that will achieve emission reductions
which were not included in the original photochemical modeling
analysis. These measures are mainly voluntary and are not committed to
by Maryland as part of its attainment demonstration. The amount of
potential air quality benefit from these measures is difficult to
estimate with any degree of certainty. Based on EPA's and Maryland's
evaluation of the potential ozone benefits these additional measures
may provide for the Baltimore Area, attainment of the ozone standard in
2010 cannot be achieved through the adoption of these measures.
The Baltimore Area attainment demonstration greatly relied
on research which evaluated the impact of a widespread power blackout
to develop an alternative approach to estimating anticipated air
quality improvements from upwind power plants. While EPA believes that
this approach provides some insight into the transport of ozone
precursors, a critical review of all the research available to EPA
leads EPA to disagree with Maryland's premise that the 2009 modeled
design values should be adjusted downward for alleged model under-
predictions of ozone concentration reductions from emission reductions.
A detailed discussion of the EPA's evaluation of the modeled
attainment demonstration and WOE analysis contained in the Maryland SIP
revision for the Baltimore Area is located in the TSD entitled
``Technical Support Document for the Modeling and Weight of Evidence
(WOE) Portions of the Document Entitled Baltimore Nonattainment Area 8-
Hour Ground Level Ozone State Implementation Plan (SIP) and Base Year
Inventory, June 15, 2007.''
EPA has carefully evaluated the information provided by Maryland
and other information it deems relevant to help predict what the air
quality is likely to be by the 2009 ozone season. After careful
consideration of all the relevant information, EPA finds that there is
not sufficiently convincing evidence that the Baltimore Area will
attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 2010. The Maryland SIP revision for
the Baltimore Area does not satisfy the Clean Air Act requirement that
State Implementation Plans provide for attainment of the NAAQS by the
applicable attainment date of June 2010.
V. What Are the Consequences of a Disapproved SIP?
This section explains the consequences of a disapproval of a SIP
under the CAA. The CAA provides for the imposition of sanctions and the
promulgation of a Federal Implementation Plan if states fail to submit
a plan that corrects any deficiencies identified by EPA in its
disapproval.
A. What Are the CAA Provisions for Sanctions?
If EPA disapproves a required SIP or component of a SIP for an area
designated nonattainment, such as the Attainment Demonstration SIP,
section 179(a) provides for the imposition of sanctions unless the
deficiency is corrected within 18 months of the final rulemaking of
disapproval. The first sanction would apply 18 months after EPA
disapproves the SIP if a State fails to make the required submittal
which EPA proposes to fully or conditionally approve within that time.
Under EPA's sanctions regulations, 40 CFR 52.31, the first sanction
would be 2:1 offsets for sources subject to the new source review
requirements under section 173 of the CAA. If the State has still
failed to submit a SIP for which EPA proposes full or conditional
approval 6 months after the first sanction is imposed, the second
sanction will apply. The second sanction is a limitation on the receipt
of Federal highway funds.
B. What Are the CAA's FIP Ramifications if a State Fails To Submit an
Approvable Plan?
In addition to sanctions, if EPA finds that a State failed to
submit the required SIP revision or disapproves the required SIP
revision, or a portion thereof, EPA must promulgate a FIP no later than
2 years from the date of the finding if the deficiency has not been
corrected within that time period.
C. What Are the Ramifications Regarding Conformity?
One consequence of EPA's disapproval of a control strategy SIP is a
conformity freeze whereby affected Metropolitan Planning Organizations
(MPOs) cannot make new conformity determinations on long range
transportation plans and transportation improvement programs (TIPs). If
we finalize the disapproval of the attainment demonstration SIP, a
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conformity freeze will be in place as of the effective date of the
disapproval without a protective finding of the budget. See, 40 CFR
93.120(a)(2). This means that no transportation plan, TIP, or project
not in the first four years of the currently conforming transportation
plan and TIP or that meet the requirements of 40 CFR 93.104(f) during a
12-month lapse grace period \2\ may be found to conform until another
attainment demonstration SIP is submitted and the motor vehicle
emissions budgets are found adequate or the attainment demonstration is
approved. In addition, if the highway funding sanction is implemented,
the conformity status of the transportation plan and TIP will lapse on
the date of implementation of the highway sanctions. During a
conformity lapse, only projects that are exempt from transportation
conformity (e.g., road resurfacing, safety projects, reconstruction of
bridges without adding travel lanes, bicycle and pedestrian facilities,
etc.), transportation control measures that are in the approved SIP and
project phases that were approved prior to the start of the lapse can
proceed during the lapse. No new project-level approvals or conformity
determinations can be made and no new transportation plan or TIP may be
found to conform until another attainment demonstration SIP is
submitted and the motor vehicle emissions budget is found adequate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ \\ Additional information on the implementation of the lapse
grace period can be found in the final transportation conformity
rule published on January 24, 2008 (73 FR 4423-4425).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
VI. What Is EPA's Conclusion?
EPA is proposing to disapprove the 8-hour ozone attainment
demonstration plan for the Baltimore moderate nonattainment area
submitted by MDE on June 4, 2007, because Baltimore's demonstration
does not in the aggregate provide sufficient evidence for EPA to
conclude that the Baltimore Area will attain the NAAQS by the June 2010
deadline in spite of modeling results that do not predict attainment.
EPA is deferring action at this time on other SIP elements submitted by
Maryland that are related to the attainment demonstration,
specifically, the RFP plan, reasonably available control measures
analysis, contingency measures, on-road motor vehicle emission budgets,
and the 2002 base year emissions inventory, which will be addressed in
separate rulemakings. EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues
discussed in this document. These comments will be considered before
taking final action.
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory Planning and Review
This action is not a ``significant regulatory action'' under the
terms of Executive Order (EO) 12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and
is therefore not subject to review under the EO.
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This action does not impose an information collection burden under
the provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.,
because this proposed SIP disapproval under section 110 and subchapter
I, part D of the Clean Air Act will not in and of itself create any new
information collection burdens but simply disapproves certain State
requirements for inclusion into the SIP. Burden is defined at 5 CFR
1320.3(b).
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) generally requires an agency
to conduct a regulatory flexibility analysis of any rule subject to
notice and comment rulemaking requirements unless the agency certifies
that the rule will not have a significant economic impact on a
substantial number of small entities. Small entities include small
businesses, small not-for-profit enterprises, and small governmental
jurisdictions. For purposes of assessing the impacts of today's rule on
small entities, small entity is defined as: (1) A small business as
defined by the Small Business Administration's (SBA) regulations at 13
CFR 121.201; (2) a small governmental jurisdiction that is a government
of a city, county, town, school district or special district with a
population of less than 50,000; and (3) a small organization that is
any not-for-profit enterprise which is independently owned and operated
and is not dominant in its field.
After considering the economic impacts of today's proposed rule on
small entities, I certify that this action will not have a significant
impact on a substantial number of small entities. This rule does not
impose any requirements or create impacts on small entities. This
proposed SIP disapproval under section 110 and subchapter I, part D of
the Clean Air Act will not in and of itself create any new requirements
but simply disapproves certain State requirements for inclusion into
the SIP. Accordingly, it affords no opportunity for EPA to fashion for
small entities less burdensome compliance or reporting requirements or
timetables or exemptions from all or part of the rule. The fact that
the Clean Air Act prescribes that various consequences (e.g., higher
offset requirements) may or will flow from this disapproval does not
mean that EPA either can or must conduct a regulatory flexibility
analysis for this action. Therefore, this action will not have a
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
We continue to be interested in the potential impacts of this
proposed rule on small entities and welcome comments on issues related
to such impacts.
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
This action contains no Federal mandates under the provisions of
Title II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA), 2 U.S.C.
1531-1538 ``for State, local, or tribal governments or the private
sector.'' EPA has determined that the proposed disapproval action does
not include a Federal mandate that may result in estimated costs of
$100 million or more to either State, local, or tribal governments in
the aggregate, or to the private sector. This action proposes to
disapprove pre-existing requirements under State or local law, and
imposes no new requirements. Accordingly, no additional costs to State,
local, or tribal governments, or to the private sector, result from
this action.
E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism
Executive Order 13132, entitled ``Federalism'' (64 FR 43255, August
10, 1999), requires EPA to develop an accountable process to ensure
``meaningful and timely input by State and local officials in the
development of regulatory policies that have federalism implications.''
``Policies that have federalism implications'' is defined in the
Executive Order to include regulations that have ``substantial direct
effects on the States, on the relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various levels of government.''
This action does not have federalism implications. It will not have
substantial direct effects on the States, on the relationship between
the national government and the States, or on the distribution of power
and responsibilities among the various levels of government, as
specified in Executive Order 13132, because it merely disapproves
certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP and does not
alter the relationship or
[[Page 21599]]
the distribution of power and responsibilities established in the Clean
Air Act. Thus, Executive Order 13132 does not apply to this action.
F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments
This action does not have tribal implications, as specified in
Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because the SIP
EPA is proposing to disapprove would not apply in Indian country
located in the state, and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial
direct costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law. Thus,
Executive Order 13175 does not apply to this action.
G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children from Environmental
Health Risks and Safety Risks
EPA interprets EO 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997) as applying
only to those regulatory actions that concern health or safety risks,
such that the analysis required under section 5-501 of the EO has the
potential to influence the regulation. This action is not subject to EO
13045 because it because it is not an economically significant
regulatory action based on health or safety risks subject to Executive
Order 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997). This proposed SIP
disapproval under section 110 and subchapter I, part D of the Clean Air
Act will not in and of itself create any new regulations but simply
disapproves certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP.
H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That Significantly Affect Energy
Supply, Distribution, or Use
This action is not subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355,
May 22, 2001) because it is not a significant regulatory action under
Executive Order 12866.
I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act
Section 12(d) of the National Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (``NTTAA''), Public Law No. 104-113, 12(d) (15 U.S.C. 272
note) directs EPA to use voluntary consensus standards in its
regulatory activities unless to do so would be inconsistent with
applicable law or otherwise impractical. Voluntary consensus standards
are technical standards (e.g., materials specifications, test methods,
sampling procedures, and business practices) that are developed or
adopted by voluntary consensus standards bodies. NTTAA directs EPA to
provide Congress, through the Office of Management and Budget,
explanations when the Agency decides not to use available and
applicable voluntary consensus standards.
EPA believes that this action is not subject to requirements of
Section 12(d) of NTTAA because application of those requirements would
be inconsistent with the Clean Air Act.
J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629 (Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes
federal executive policy on environmental justice. Its main provision
directs federal agencies, to the greatest extent practicable and
permitted by law, to make environmental justice part of their mission
by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high
and adverse human health or environmental effects of their programs,
policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income
populations in the United States.
EPA lacks the discretionary authority to address environmental
justice in this proposed action. In reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's
role is to approve or disapprove state choices, based on the criteria
of the Clean Air Act. Accordingly, this action merely proposes to
disapprove certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP under
section 110 and subchapter I, part D of the Clean Air Act and will not
in and of itself create any new requirements. Accordingly, it does not
provide EPA with the discretionary authority to address, as
appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental effects,
using practicable and legally permissible methods, under Executive
Order 12898.
In addition, this proposed rule pertaining to the Baltimore 8-hour
ozone attainment demonstration plan does not have tribal implications
as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000),
because the SIP is not approved to apply in Indian country located in
the state, and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct
costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Carbon monoxide,
Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, Incorporation by reference, Reporting and
recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: April 28, 2009.
William C. Early,
Acting Regional Administrator, Region III.
[FR Doc. E9-10682 Filed 5-7-09; 8:45 am]
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