U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research Plan Summary, 73771-73777 [E7-25254]

Agencies

• DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

[Federal Register Volume 72, Number 248 (Friday, December 28, 2007)]
[Notices]
[Pages 73771-73777]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E7-25254]


-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

RIN 0648-XE67


U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research Plan Summary

AGENCY: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 
Department of Commerce.

ACTION: Notice of Publication of U.S. Climate Change Science Program 
(CCSP) Revised Research Plan Summary and request for public comments.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: Pursuant to Section 104(f) the Global Change Research Act of 
1990 (GCRA), the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research 
Plan Summary is being published in the Federal Register for a 60-day 
public comment period. The public comments received on the Revised 
Research Plan Summary will be considered during the preparation of the 
final Revised Research Plan as well as the Scientific Assessment 
document required by Section 106 of the GCRA. The final version of the 
full Revised Research Plan will be published on the CCSP web site. 
Public comments received on the Revised Research Plan Summary will be 
made available upon request.

DATES: Comments must be received by February 26, 2008.

ADDRESSES: A formatted version of The U.S. Climate Change Science 
Program Revised Research Plan Summary is available on the CCSP Web site 
at:
https://www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2008/summary/default.htm
Comments should be sent to Dr. Fabien Laurier, Climate Change Science 
Program Office at:
research-plan-summary@usgcrp.gov

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. Patricia Jellison, Climate Change 
Science Program Office, 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 250, 
Washington, DC 20006, Telephone: (202) 223-6262

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Summary of Revised Research Plan for the US Climate Change Science 
Program (CCSP)

I. Introduction

About the Revised Research Plan
    This Revised Research Plan is an update to the 2003 Strategic Plan 
of the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) (https://
www.climatescience.gov/Library/stratplan2003/final/default.htm), a 
document which was developed via a thorough, open and transparent 
multi-year process involving a wide range of scientists and managers. A 
significant part of this process was the review of both the draft and 
final plan by the National Academy of Sciences (https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=11565 for the draft plan; https://www.nap.edu/
catalog.php?record_id=10635 for the final plan). These reviews played 
an important role in influencing the 2003 Strategic Plan's development.
    The Strategic Plan has long-term value to CCSP, but like any 
strategic plan, it must be supplemented by shorter-term revisions that 
take into account both advances in the science and changes in societal 
needs, and CCSP has an ongoing long-range strategic planning process to 
ensure that these needs are met. The Revised Research Plan (hereinafter 
referred to as the Research Plan) draws on CCSP's long-range planning 
process and provides this update, in compliance with the terms of the 
Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990.
    In the Research Plan, the reader will find several things: (1) an 
updated statement of vision, goals and capabilities consistent with 
CCSP's current Strategic Plan but reflecting both scientific progress 
and the evolution of the Program based on accomplishments and evolving 
societal and environmental needs; (2) a description of the relationship 
of the Research Plan to the current Scientific Assessment; (3) 
highlights of ways in which the program

[[Page 73772]]

is evolving in the context of the progress made over the years 2003-
2007 since the Strategic Plan was put in place, and a description of 
the priorities that have emerged as a result; and 4) a description of 
research plans for the coming years, in order to build upon the work 
envisioned in the Strategic Plan and begun over the past four years.
    The purpose of this Summary of the Research Plan is to provide 
information about the structure, scope and content of the Research 
Plan, in order to solicit and facilitate public comment about the Plan.
About the Climate Change Science Program
    The vision of CCSP is: A nation and the global community empowered 
with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities 
of change in the climate and related environmental systems. The core 
precept that motivates the CCSP is that the best possible scientific 
knowledge should be the foundation for the information required to 
manage climate variability and change and related aspects of global 
change. Thus the mission of the CCSP is to:Facilitate the creation and 
application of knowledge of the Earth's global environment through 
research, observations, decision support, and communication.
    CCSP's five strategic goals are:
     CCSP Goal (1): Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and 
present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and 
improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
     CCSP Goal (2): Improve quantification of the forces 
bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems
     CCSP Goal (3): Reduce uncertainty in projections of how 
the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future
     CCSP Goal (4): Understand the sensitivity and adaptability 
of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to 
climate and related global changes
     CCSP Goal (5): Explore the uses and identify the limits of 
evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate 
variability and change
    In order to understand CCSP's role in fostering and coordinating US 
federally-funded climate change research, it is important to understand 
what CCSP is and the role CCSP has in the federal government. CCSP is 
not a federal agency. Rather, it is a structure and a mechanism for 
coordinating and integrating federal research on global change, and 
making recommendations on priorities that federal agencies consider in 
their planning, as authorized in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 
(GCRA). Research on global change, including climate change, is 
sponsored by thirteen federal agencies; the CCSP agencies also include 
government entities that do not sponsor research but which play a 
critical role in the federal process. The latter are the Office of 
Science and Technology Policy, the Council on Environmental Quality, 
and the Office of Management and Budget. CCSP fosters coordination of 
federal global change activities across thematic and crosscutting 
elements that utilize four core approaches: research, observation, 
communication and decision support; it also helps to coordinate 
international research and cooperation. Member agencies include the 
following:
Agency for International Development
Department of Agriculture
Department of Commerce
Department of Defense
Department of Energy
Department of Health and Human Services
Department of the Interior
Department of State
Department of Transportation
Environmental Protection Agency
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Science Foundation
Smithsonian Institution
    The program is led by an interagency committee of senior 
representatives from the participating departments and agencies that is 
responsible for overall priority setting, program direction, management 
review, and accountability to deliver program goals. This committee is 
chaired by the CCSP Director. Interagency Working Groups for each of 
the program's research and crosscutting elements plan and implement 
interagency activities and priorities aligned with CCSP's Goals. These 
elements include the following: Atmospheric Composition, Climate 
Variability and Change / Modeling, Water Cycle, Land-Use and Land-Cover 
Change, Carbon Cycle, Human Contributions and Responses / Decision 
Support, Observation / Data Management, Communication, and 
International Research and Cooperation. CCSP has a single office, the 
function of which is to facilitate the activities of the Program by 
providing value-added staffing and day-to-day coordination of CCSP-wide 
program integration, strategic planning, product development, and 
communication.
    Global change research activities across CCSP's thirteen 
departments and agencies includes research conducted by scientists in 
federal agencies, academia, industry, and non-profit organizations 
through a mix of directed and competed programs. The Research Plan 
provides a summary of ways in which CCSP provides leverage for 
individual agency efforts through improved coordination and 
communication, and provides an avenue for integrating and producing 
reports to Congress that include both research progress and a summary 
of future plans. CCSP also provides climate-related input to other 
federal and Administration initiatives (e.g., the Ocean Action Plan, 
the US Group on Earth Observations), and a way for the federal climate 
change research establishment to assess joint opportunities and needs 
for programmatic evolution in response to changing societal and 
environmental needs.
    The Research Plan outlines CCSP's key products. One of these is 
CCSP's annual report to Congress, which provides a yearly update on key 
scientific findings and plans for the coming fiscal year. CCSP also 
sponsors workshops, like the 2005 workshop on Decision Support, which 
brought together experts and stakeholders on climate change and its 
impacts and yielded a report of its proceedings (https://
www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/finalreport/default.htm ). CCSP 
also contributes expertise and support to other national and 
international assessments, including the IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007). 
Other key products of the Program include the aforementioned 2003 CCSP 
Strategic Plan and a series of twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment 
Products (in progress) that are one outcome of the substantial 
stakeholder engagement in the earlier strategic planning process. These 
Synthesis and Assessment reports provide in-depth ``state of the 
science'' information responsive to CCSP overarching strategic goals 
and related to specific national, regional and sectoral issues. (Please 
see https://www.climatescience.gov/Library/default.htm for information 
on available products and the status of products in preparation.) In 
addition, numerous peer-reviewed scientific papers are published each 
year under the auspices of CCSP.
    The Research Plan provides an overview of CCSP Program management 
and review, including communications; how the Program is structured and 
how priorities are established and used; existing and planned annual 
and multi-year internal review processes, NRC reports and assessments; 
stakeholder

[[Page 73773]]

and community engagement and guidance; ties to other national, 
international and sectoral assessments such as IPCC, WMO-UNEP, Arctic 
Climate Impact Assessment, and other reports; and linkages to agency 
budget processes.

II. Progress, Priorities and Plans

Research Progress towards Goals 2003--2007
    Section II of the Research Plan provides an overview of the 
Program's progress and priorities. Significant progress has been made 
in many areas of climate change research, as evidenced by the 
development of the 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products; several of 
these reports are now complete and others are in progress. The 
accomplishments of the past four years have led not just to advancement 
of scientific knowledge, but as significantly, to the evolution and 
refinement of the science questions and approaches needed for current 
and future global change research. CCSP's strategic goals have a direct 
relationship, by design, to the research elements outlined in the GCRA. 
The Research Plan provides a crosscut that relates progress across GCRA 
research elements to CCSP strategic goals and core approaches, as well 
as selected highlights of key progress (and the impacts and societal 
benefits resulting from that progress) across the research elements 
called for in the GCRA:
    (1) Global measurements, establishing and providing stewardship for 
the worldwide observations necessary to understand the physical, 
chemical and biological processes responsible for changes in the Earth 
system on climate-relevant spatial and temporal scales
    (2) Documentation of global change, including the development of 
mechanisms for recording changes that will actually occur in the Earth 
system over the coming decades
    (3) Studies of earlier changes in the Earth system, using evidence 
from the geologic and fossil record
    (4) Predictions, using quantitative models of the Earth system to 
identify and simulate global environmental processes and trends, and 
the regional implications of such processes and trends
    (5) Focused research initiatives to understand the nature of and 
interaction among physical, chemical, biological, and social processes 
related to global change.

Emerging Priorities

    CCSP has an ongoing planning process, to determine yearly 
objectives as well as longer-term strategic approaches. The Research 
Plan is a reflection of the current stage of these planning activities. 
CCSP's planning process uses the vision articulated in the Strategic 
Plan for 2003-2013 as a starting point, and is further informed by 
CCSP-commissioned reports from the National Research Council (e.g. the 
2007 NRC review of CCSP: https://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record--
id=11934), as well as CCSP-sponsored stakeholder and scientific 
outreach, involvement in international global change programs, and a 
wide range of assessment activities in which CCSP is involved. This 
approach provides the basis for ongoing assessment and alignment of 
priorities based on emerging scientific and societal needs.
    Any scientific research program must evolve over time based on what 
has been learned during earlier periods, and CCSP is no exception. This 
is particularly true for an Earth science related program, in which the 
past several years have brought dramatic increases in knowledge; 
significant advances in the length and quality of observational data 
sets (including more comprehensive observations of climatic phenomena 
than was previously possible); improvements in the scope, resolution, 
and quality of models; and the initiation of several major 
observational efforts that have only now begun to yield results for 
integrated scientific study, or will appear shortly after the release 
of the revised Plan.
    One of the most significant advancements of recent years is that 
ongoing monitoring of key Earth systems over the past four years and 
analysis of records extending back through time have revealed a number 
of important Earth system changes and previously-unknown processes, 
including (but not limited to), the continuation of warm years; changes 
in the cryosphere, e.g. Arctic sea ice coverage, significant changes in 
ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica, and permafrost temperature; 
changes in patterns and frequency of wildfire; changes in species 
distributions; ocean acidification and its consequences; changes in 
storminess; hydrologic changes; and the recognition of unexpected 
behavior in seasonal greenness in tropical and temperate forests. 
Continued collection of paleoenvironmental data has also provided a 
basis for understanding the importance of not just climate change, but 
also climate variability and the potential for abrupt changes, to Earth 
systems. This legacy of past observations is key to understanding 
potential future changes and impacts.
    Long- and short-term monitoring efforts have benefited from 
advances in technology and analysis capabilities; however, there are 
significant challenges associated with these gains. These issues were 
the subject of a CCSP internal workshop on Observations in 2006. 
Drawing from the report of that workshop, the Research Plan addresses 
the major issues relative to observations, including: (1) advances and 
issues in capabilities and their implications; (2) gains and losses in 
orbital and ground-based observations networks, including NPOESS, 
Landsat-like systems and other climate sensors; (3) long- vs. short-
term observations; (4) advances in (and costs of) computational and 
data storage and retrieval capacity; and 5) the increased sensitivity, 
scope and comprehensiveness of climate models and the needs thereof.
    In the four years since the 2003 Strategic Plan was published, the 
climate community has also completed work on several important 
assessments, including the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (to which CCSP 
made substantial scientific contributions) and the Synthesis and 
Assessment Products being developed under the auspices of CCSP, which 
have helped to integrate many related scientific areas and to provide a 
comprehensive report on the state of the science. These assessments 
have had a significant influence on the broader climate policy 
community, and have helped to shape external dialogues and to frame the 
new questions that face policymakers. These discussions within the user 
community have already begun to place increased demands on CCSP to 
provide more regionally-resolved and sector-specific information about 
climate, its societal impacts and vulnerabilities, and to provide the 
rigorous scientific basis to support increased societal planning for 
adaptation to and mitigation of the effects of climate change.
    As a direct result of the past four years of Program activity and 
progress, as well as recognition of the important changes to earth 
systems noted above, there are significant new demands on CCSP. The 
most substantial of these is the need for information at a scale that 
is pertinent to direct land- and resource management issues, in order 
to support decision-making. The development of robust partnerships will 
be an essential component of CCSP's response to these needs. These 
areas include not just climate change itself but improved understanding 
of associated issues of climate change impacts, adaptation, 
vulnerability, and sustainability, as well

[[Page 73774]]

as the need for tools for the delivery of information for decision 
support in a manner that is both timely and useful, and at scales that 
are relevant, to stakeholders' needs.
    This section of the Research Plan contains specific examples of 
issues and events that influence CCSP's research directions. The list 
of examples includes such major developments as:
     Dramatic increases in knowledge
     Significant advances in the length and quality of 
observational data sets
     Improvements in scope, resolution, and quality of models 
and modeling efforts
     Initiation of major new climate sensors and observational 
efforts that are now beginning to yield results for integrated 
scientific study, and potential loss of others
     Completion of important assessments, including the IPCC 
Fourth Assessment, assessments by WMO/UNEP, the Arctic Climate Impact 
Assessment, and CCSP's Synthesis and Assessment Products

Research and Programmatic Plans

    The sections outlined above are intended to provide an overview of 
the structure and purpose of CCSP, its products, accomplishments and 
challenges, and the progress which has led to the emergence of new 
priorities and changed emphases over the past four years. The remainder 
of the Research Plan's content is devoted to the articulation of Plans 
for the Program both programmatically and as related to CCSP's 
strategic goals, for the period 2008--2010 and beyond.
    A sampling of programmatic and research plans is provided in this 
Summary. However, it is anticipated that the full scope of these plans 
will be developed with inclusion of the public input that results from 
the publication of this Summary. Since the public input to this 
Research Plan will be an essential component in developing the research 
directions of CCSP, this input will also be considered in the 
development of the current Scientific Assessment as required by the 
GCRA. The GCRA requires that the Scientific Assessment integrates, 
evaluates, and interprets the findings of the [United States Global 
Change Research] Program. The current Scientific Assessment is under 
development; it will integrate and draw from many sources, including 
the 2003 Strategic Plan, the Synthesis and Assessment Products, and 
this Research Plan, including the public comments received during the 
Research Plan's development, and other published sources. By 
promulgating this Summary, CCSP invites and encourages public comment 
to help inform both the development of the Research Plan and the 
articulation of CCSP's future research priorities.
    In addition to research plans aimed at achieving objectives 
associated directly with CCSP's strategic goals, CCSP intends to 
explore ways in which to improve and extend its achievement of 
programmatic goals. Issues related to the crosscutting elements of 
modeling, observations systems and networks, stakeholder engagement and 
communication of CCSP results to the public, to non-governmental 
organizations, to the climate change technology community and to state 
and local officials and other decisionmakers are among the areas for 
needed growth that were identified by the National Research Council in 
its recent report on CCSP progress (NRC 2007). Over the next three 
years CCSP will actively consider responses to these needs to determine 
and implement effective approaches. The CCSP agencies will also 
continue to take a leadership role in the dissemination of results and 
products that come from the program's research, observations, and 
decision support activities. In particular, the program will ensure 
that the conclusions from its assessment products and activities are 
widely communicated. In addition, the program will coordinate the 
development of interagency climate-related communications with those of 
the member agencies to help assure that the accomplishments of the 
overall national investment in climate-related science are understood 
and are widely available to users of the information.
    The scope of CCSP scientific research is far-reaching. CCSP 
Strategic Goals encompass everything from basic scientific research on 
Earth's past and present climate and climate variability, the forces 
that result in changes to Earth's climate and related systems, reducing 
uncertainties in projecting future change and its consequences and the 
sensitivity/adaptability of both ecosystems and human systems, all the 
way to the application of the knowledge gained to the decisionmaking 
process for the management of risks and development of strategies for 
adaptation to climate change. In the four years since the release of 
the Strategic Plan, investment in and progress towards CCSP Goals 1 
through 3 has been greater than that for Goals 4 and 5. Significant 
advances have been made in documenting climate changes and 
understanding the interconnected workings of Earth systems. 
Improvements in modeling capabilities have fostered a better 
understanding of forcing factors and couplings between ocean, 
atmosphere and land systems. Relative to the state of the science four 
years ago, substantial progress has been made in understanding and 
predicting climate change and variability at global and continental 
scales. Accordingly, strides have been made in characterizing and 
reducing the uncertainties associated with projecting the magnitudes 
and effects of future climate and related systems change. The value of 
these results is demonstrated by their inclusion in and importance to 
the IPCC 4th Assessment.
    As stated in Section I above, CCSP's Goals provide the focus and 
direction for the program, to ensure that knowledge developed by the 
participating agencies and research elements can be integrated and 
synthesized, and this remains the overarching strategy for the program. 
The following descriptions provide a sense of the strategic purpose and 
scope encompassed by these goals, and the way in which the goals inform 
research, observations, decision support and communications throughout 
the program:
    CCSP Goal (1): Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present 
climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve 
understanding of the causes of observed variability and change
    Climate conditions change significantly over the span of weeks, 
seasons, years, decades, and even longer time scales. CCSP research 
will improve understanding of natural oscillations in climate on time 
scales from weeks to centuries, including improving and harnessing ENSO 
forecasts, a large-scale climate oscillation with implications for 
resource and disaster management. Research will continue to sharpen 
qualitative and quantitative understanding of climate extremes, and to 
what degree any changes in their frequency or intensity lie outside the 
range of natural variability, through improved observations, analysis, 
and modeling. The program also will continue to expand and refine 
observations, monitoring, and data/information system capabilities and 
increase confidence in our understanding of how and why climate is 
changing. Fostering improved interactions and connectivity between 
research and ongoing operational measurements and activities continues 
to be another important aspect of the program's work.
    CCSP Goal (2): Improve quantification of the forces bringing about 
changes in the Earth's climate and related systems

[[Page 73775]]

    Combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land cover and land use, and 
industrial activities produce greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols and 
alter the composition of the atmosphere and physical and biological 
properties of the Earth's surface. These changes have several important 
climatic effects, the quantification of which has improved dramatically 
in recent years but upon which a substantial amount of work remains to 
be done. Research conducted through CCSP will continue to address the 
reduction of uncertainty in the sources and sinks of GHGs; aerosols and 
their precursors; the long range atmospheric transport of GHGs and 
aerosols and their precursors; and the interactions of GHGs and 
aerosols with global climate, ozone in the upper and lower layers of 
the atmosphere, and regional-scale air quality. It will continue to 
improve quantification of the interactions among the carbon cycle, 
other biological and ecological processes, and land cover and land use 
to better project atmospheric concentrations of key greenhouse gases 
and to support improved decisionmaking. The program will also continue 
to work towards improved capabilities for developing and applying 
emissions scenarios in research and analysis, in cooperation with the 
Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP).
    CCSP Goal (3): Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's 
climate and related systems may change in the future
    While a great deal is now known about the mechanisms that affect 
the response of the climate system to changes in natural and human 
influences, many questions remain to be addressed and refined. There is 
still uncertainty regarding precisely how much climate will change 
overall and especially in specific regions. A primary objective of CCSP 
is to continue to develop information and scientific capacity needed to 
sharpen both qualitative and quantitative understanding through 
interconnected observations, data assimilation, and modeling 
activities. CCSP-supported research will continue to address basic 
climate system properties and the feedbacks or secondary changes that 
can either reinforce or dampen the initial and ongoing effects of 
greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and changes in land use and land 
cover. The program will also continue to address the potential for 
future changes in extreme events and uncertainty regarding potential 
rapid or abrupt changes in climate. CCSP will also continue to build on 
existing U.S. strengths in climate research and modeling, and to 
enhance capacity for development of high-end coupled climate and Earth 
system models.
    CCSP Goal (4): Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of 
different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate 
and related global changes
    Seasonal to annual variability in climate has been connected to 
impacts on ecosystems and many aspects of human life. Longer time scale 
natural climate cycles and human-induced changes in climate have 
additional effects. Improving our ability to assess the potential 
implications of variations and future changes in climate and 
environmental conditions on ecosystems and human systems could enable 
governments, businesses, and communities to mitigate damages and seize 
opportunities by adapting infrastructure, activities, and plans. CCSP 
research will increasingly examine the interactions of multiple 
interacting changes and effects (e.g., the carbon dioxide 
``fertilization effect'', deposition of nitrogen and other nutrients, 
changes in landscapes that affect water resources and habitats, changes 
in frequency of fires or pests) to improve knowledge of sensitivity and 
adaptability of systems to climate variability and change. CCSP 
research will also improve methods to integrate our understanding of 
potential effects of different atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse 
gases and to develop methods for aggregating and comparing potential 
impacts across different sectors and settings.
    CCSP Goal (5): Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving 
knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate 
variability and change
    In recent years, the scientific and technical community has begun 
to develop a variety of products to support management of risks and 
opportunities related to climate variability and change, but much 
remains to be done in this area. CCSP will foster additional studies 
and encourage evaluation and learning from these experiences in order 
to develop and improve decision support processes and products that use 
knowledge to the best effect, while communicating levels of uncertainty 
appropriately. Working in partnership with stakeholders and end-users 
of this information, CCSP will develop resources (e.g., observations, 
databases, data and model products, scenarios, visualization products, 
scientific syntheses, assessments, tools and approaches to engage 
ongoing consultative mechanisms) to support policymaking, planning, 
risk reduction and adaptive management.
    As shown above, CCSP Goals 1 through 3 remains important, with 
significant research questions that remain to be articulated and 
answered. One mechanism by which CCSP undertakes these strategic 
priorities is through the development of near-term (i.e.1-3 year) 
interagency implementation priorities. One example of a near-term 
interagency implementation priority that CCSP has identified as needing 
intensive effort is a focus on understanding carbon cycling and climate 
change in high latitude regions, since these regions are among the most 
rapidly-changing areas of the planet; another is the development of an 
integrated Earth system analysis capability to focus toward creation of 
a high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 
1979, information that is needed in order to improve the assimilation 
of land cover and dynamic sea ice modeling into carbon and nutrient 
cycling and other crucial areas.
    The coming years will see substantially increased need for CCSP to 
accelerate progress on Goals 4 and 5, in order to more fully understand 
the implications of climate change for both natural and managed 
ecosystems and to improve the delivery of that information to land and 
resource managers and other stakeholders. This is an important area of 
potential growth for CCSP. New foci include improvements in the 
reliability of ecological forecasting, in order to foster and support 
natural resource management and decision making; an increased emphasis 
on the development of an early warning system for the possibility of 
abrupt climate change to assist managers and decisionmakers in planning 
for sea level rise and other potential rapid changes; and an increased 
focus on the development of tools for decision support,; and an 
increased focus on the development of tools for decision support, to 
improve delivery of needed information in formats and at scales 
(particularly regional scales) that maximize their usefulness to 
stakeholders.
    The increased emphasis on decision support and the delivery of 
needed information to stakeholders and decision-makers discussed above 
is an example of an evolving overall programmatic priority for CCSP. 
Further, each of the thirteen participating agencies also has its own 
priorities that make invaluable contributions to CCSP, and which 
contribute a large portion of CCSP's progress toward CCSP's strategic 
goals. In addition, CCSP has identified specific

[[Page 73776]]

implementation priorities -- important topics that require the 
coordinated efforts of multiple agencies. While these implementation 
priorities are only a part of the overall program, they are vital 
mechanisms through which CCSP integrates agency activities to create 
knowledge and products that are greater than the sum of the individual 
agency efforts. The following are examples of implementation priorities 
for the next few years that are inherently interagency, and that will 
contribute to the program's long-term priorities (priorities that are 
specific to single agencies are not included here).
Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems
    The global carbon cycle has been one of the seven interdisciplinary 
science focus areas for CCSP and its GCRP predecessors for many years. 
Accomplishments include completion of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment 
Product 2.2 ``State of the Carbon Cycle Report''(https://
www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-2/final-report/default.htm) as 
well as improved availability of CO2 measurements and advances in 
coupled carbon-climate modeling and assimilation, plus others. 
Recognition that high latitude systems are increasingly important 
sources of atmospheric carbon as regional warming occurs makes it 
critical to improve our understanding of the carbon dynamics in high 
latitude systems, and the factors that may lead to changes in those 
dynamics. These are crucial elements of global carbon modeling and a 
priority for understanding the linkages and feedbacks between carbon, 
ecosystems and land cover, hydrology, and climate variability and 
change.
Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non-CO2 
Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds
    The need to quantify and understand the impacts of radiative 
forcing on climate has long been important to CCSP/GCRP. Advances have 
been made in our understanding of climate influences of aerosols, 
reactive gas emissions and ozone in both the troposphere and 
stratosphere, and these continue to be important. The next level of 
complexity adds the importance of water vapor in the upper troposphere 
and lower stratosphere, as a key component of the atmospheric system. 
There is now increased recognition of the importance of quantifying the 
climate forcing associated with aerosols, clouds, the spatially-varying 
shorter-lived trace gases, as well as upper tropospheric and lower 
stratospheric ozone. Recent analysis, including that associated with 
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 
Change, has emphasized this need, and a number of scientific advances 
and improvement in observation and modeling capability make the timing 
appropriate for an enhanced focus on this topic. Development of an 
Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability: A focus toward creating a 
high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 1979
    Just as the public and decision-makers can today easily access 
weather maps (i.e., ``analyses'' of the atmosphere) to support a wide 
range of applications, tomorrow's decision-makers need tools to 
visualize the evolving state of the climate system over the entire 
planet, including its oceans, land surface, and vegetation. Substantial 
progress has been made in the development of coupled Earth system 
modeling, particularly with the adoption of a common Earth System 
Modeling Framework. Historical reanalysis of data for the 20th century, 
improvements in coupled ocean-atmosphere analysis capabilities and the 
incorporation of land surface processes, sea ice dynamics and the 
hydrological cycle will yield an improved record of the state of the 
atmosphere and ocean. This effort will contribute to the ability to 
separate natural and human-induced climate forcing of climate 
variations and change, and will result in improved accessibility of 
research-based information on climate variations and impacts to 
decision-makers and the public.
Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application 
Capability
    The need to provide information to water resource managers and 
other decision makers on issues related to how climate affects water 
availability, drought, and water quality has long been a component of 
CCSP activities, and the global water cycle is one of CCSP's identified 
research elements. An end-to-end system to provide information to water 
resource managers and other decision makers on issues related to how 
climate affects water availability, drought, and water quality requires 
integration and improvement of existing research and monitoring 
capabilities to reduce uncertainties in hydrological/climate 
predictions. Assembling the building blocks for the development of an 
end-to-end global water cycle infrastructure and an development of an 
observations-based Generalized Hydrological (water, energy, 
biogeochemical) Modeling/Prediction Framework will help to reduce 
uncertainties and improve hydrologic predictions, leading to improved 
decision-support information and resources.
Assessing Abrupt Change in a Warming Climate: Toward Development of an 
Abrupt Change Early Warning System
    Changes in the climate system are considered ``abrupt'' if they 
occur more rapidly than the time needed by society and ecosystems to 
adapt to them (NRC 2002). Possible impacts range from accelerated 
melting of ice sheets and associated sea level rise, severe and 
sustained droughts, to systematic changes in weather patterns over 
broad regions that may result from changes in ocean circulation. CCSP 
has a research element aimed specifically at climate variability and 
change, which has fostered considerable progress in our understanding 
of past abrupt climate events and the potential causes for rapid 
changes. Given this progress, a near-term emphasis is to reduce the 
remaining knowledge gaps that limit our ability to provide early 
warning assessments of the likelihood of future abrupt climate change, 
at global, national and regional scales, over the remainder of this 
century. The effort has a special focus on those changes that have the 
largest potential impacts, with the overarching goal of providing 
policy- and decision-makers with information needed to better assess 
and minimize future risks due to abrupt change.
Ecological Forecasting
    Ecological forecasting brings together modeling with observations 
and results from experiments and process studies to predict the impacts 
of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes on life-sustaining 
ecosystems. Many CCSP agencies are engaged in activities that include 
components of an ecological forecasting capability to address critical 
emerging questions. Progress has been made in such areas as documenting 
changes occurring in boreal forests. This has set the stage for 
reducing scientific uncertainty about possible future changes in 
primary production, biogeochemistry, and biodiversity, to findings that 
show that global oceanic phytoplankton productivity responds to changes 
in upper-ocean temperature and stratification. Work for the coming 
years builds upon earlier investigations to expand the development of 
models linking geophysical and ecological phenomena, to better 
characterize the uncertainty associated with linked models, and thus to 
provide more

[[Page 73777]]

reliable ecological forecasts. The result will be an enhanced 
understanding of ecological response to changing climate as well as 
improved natural resource management and decision-making.
    The full Revised Research Plan includes--for both programmatic and 
strategic goals--the identification of emerging societal and scientific 
needs; the changes and shifts in emphasis to major scientific questions 
that have resulted from advances in knowledge and other 
accomplishments; the most urgent research needs that have emerged; and 
the expected outcomes, products, impacts and societal benefits. The 
brief examples above suggest the direction that CCSP will evolve in the 
future, towards increased engagement with stakeholders and increased 
attention towards relevance of scientific results to decisionmaking and 
policymaking. The full scope of the Research Plan will reflect the 
public input that results from the publication of this Summary. By 
publishing this Summary, CCSP invites and encourages public comment to 
help inform both the development of the Research Plan and the 
articulation of CCSP's future research priorities.

III. End Matter

    In keeping with CCSP policy and its legacy of openness and 
transparency of process, the Research Plan will close with information 
regarding the preparation of the Research Plan, including but not 
limited to, a listing of: (1) Authors; (2) Reviewers; (3) References; 
(4) Sources of images and other figures; and (5) Important Links and 
Contact Information.

    Dated: December 21, 2007.
William J. Brennan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for International Affairs, and 
Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program.
[FR Doc. E7-25254 Filed 12-27-07; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-12-S