National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone, 37818-37919 [E7-12416]
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Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 11, 2007 / Proposed Rules
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
AGENCY
40 CFR Part 50
[EPA–HQ–OAR–2005–0172; FRL–8331–5]
RIN 2060–AN24
National Ambient Air Quality
Standards for Ozone
Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
AGENCY:
Based on its review of the air
quality criteria for ozone (O3) and
related photochemical oxidants and
national ambient air quality standards
(NAAQS) for O3, EPA proposes to make
revisions to the primary and secondary
NAAQS for O3 to provide requisite
protection of public health and welfare,
respectively, and to make corresponding
revisions in data handling conventions
for O3.
With regard to the primary standard
for O3, EPA proposes to revise the level
of the 8-hour standard to a level within
the range of 0.070 to 0.075 parts per
million (ppm), to provide increased
protection for children and other ‘‘at
risk’’ populations against an array of O3related adverse health effects that range
from decreased lung function and
increased respiratory symptoms to
serious indicators of respiratory
morbidity including emergency
department visits and hospital
admissions for respiratory causes, and
possibly cardiovascular-related
morbidity as well as total nonaccidental
and cardiopulmonary mortality. The
EPA also proposes to specify the level
of the primary standard to the nearest
thousandth ppm. The EPA solicits
comment on alternative levels down to
0.060 ppm and up to and including
retaining the current 8-hour standard of
0.08 ppm (effectively 0.084 ppm using
current data rounding conventions).
With regard to the secondary standard
for O3, EPA proposes to revise the
current 8-hour standard with one of two
options to provide increased protection
against O3-related adverse impacts on
vegetation and forested ecosystems. One
option is to replace the current standard
with a cumulative, seasonal standard
expressed as an index of the annual sum
of weighted hourly concentrations,
cumulated over 12 hours per day (8 a.m.
to 8:00 p.m.) during the consecutive 3month period within the O3 season with
the maximum index value, set at a level
within the range of 7 to 21 ppm-hours.
The other option is to make the
secondary standard identical to the
proposed primary 8-hour standard. The
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SUMMARY:
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EPA solicits comment on specifying a
cumulative, seasonal standard in terms
of a 3-year average of the annual sums
of weighted hourly concentrations; on
the range of alternative 8-hour standard
levels for which comment is being
solicited for the primary standard,
including retaining the current
secondary standard, which is identical
to the current primary standard; and on
an alternative approach to setting a
cumulative, seasonal secondary
standard(s).
Written comments on this
proposed rule must be received by
October 9, 2007.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments,
identified by Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–
OAR–2005–0172, by one of the
following methods:
• www.regulations.gov: Follow the
on-line instructions for submitting
comments.
• E-mail: a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov.
• Fax: 202–566–1741.
• Mail: Docket No. EPA–HQ–OAR–
2005–0172, Environmental Protection
Agency, Mail code 6102T, 1200
Pennsylvania Ave., NW., Washington,
DC 20460. Please include a total of two
copies.
• Hand Delivery: Docket No. EPA–
HQ–OAR–2005–0172, Environmental
Protection Agency, EPA West, Room
3334, 1301 Constitution Ave., NW.,
Washington, DC. Such deliveries are
only accepted during the Docket’s
normal hours of operation, and special
arrangements should be made for
deliveries of boxed information.
Instructions: Direct your comments to
Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2005–
0172. The EPA’s policy is that all
comments received will be included in
the public docket without change and
may be made available online at
www.regulations.gov, including any
personal information provided, unless
the comment includes information
claimed to be Confidential Business
Information (CBI) or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Do not submit information that you
consider to be CBI or otherwise
protected through www.regulations.gov
or e-mail. The www.regulations.gov Web
site is an ‘‘anonymous access’’ system,
which means EPA will not know your
identity or contact information unless
you provide it in the body of your
comment. If you send an e-mail
comment directly to EPA without going
through www.regulations.gov, your email address will be automatically
captured and included as part of the
comment that is placed in the public
docket and made available on the
Internet. If you submit an electronic
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comment, EPA recommends that you
include your name and other contact
information in the body of your
comment and with any disk or CD–ROM
you submit. If EPA cannot read your
comment due to technical difficulties
and cannot contact you for clarification,
EPA may not be able to consider your
comment. Electronic files should avoid
the use of special characters, any form
of encryption, and be free of any defects
or viruses. For additional information
about EPA’s public docket, visit the EPA
Docket Center homepage at https://
www.epa.gov/epahome/dockets.htm.
Docket: All documents in the docket
are listed in the www.regulations.gov
index. Although listed in the index,
some information is not publicly
available, e.g., CBI or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute.
Certain other material, such as
copyrighted material, will be publicly
available only in hard copy. Publicly
available docket materials are available
either electronically in
www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at
the Air and Radiation Docket and
Information Center, EPA/DC, EPA West,
Room 3334, 1301 Constitution Ave.,
NW., Washington, DC. The Public
Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to
4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday,
excluding legal holidays. The telephone
number for the Public Reading Room is
(202) 566–1744 and the telephone
number for the Air and Radiation
Docket and Information Center is (202)
566–1742.
Public Hearings: The EPA intends to
hold public hearings around the end of
August to early September in several
cities across the country, and will
announce in a separate Federal Register
notice the dates, times, and addresses of
the public hearings on this proposed
rule.
Dr.
David J. McKee, Health and
Environmental Impacts Division, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Mail code C504–06, Research Triangle
Park, NC 27711; telephone: 919–541–
5288; fax: 919–541–0237; e-mail:
mckee.dave@epa.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
General Information
What Should I Consider as I Prepare My
Comments for EPA?
1. Submitting CBI. Do not submit this
information to EPA through
www.regulations.gov or e-mail. Clearly
mark the part or all of the information
that you claim to be CBI. For CBI
information in a disk or CD ROM that
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you mail to EPA, mark the outside of the
disk or CD ROM as CBI and then
identify electronically within the disk or
CD ROM the specific information that is
claimed as CBI. In addition to one
complete version of the comment that
includes information claimed as CBI, a
copy of the comment that does not
contain the information claimed as CBI
must be submitted for inclusion in the
public docket. Information so marked
will not be disclosed except in
accordance with procedures set forth in
40 CFR part 2.
2. Tips for Preparing Your Comments.
When submitting comments, remember
to:
• Identify the rulemaking by docket
number and other identifying
information (subject heading, Federal
Register date and page number).
• Follow directions—The Agency
may ask you to respond to specific
questions or organize comments by
referencing a Code of Federal
Regulations (CFR) part or section
number.
• Explain why you agree or disagree,
suggest alternatives, and substitute
language for your requested changes.
• Describe any assumptions and
provide any technical information and/
or data that you used.
• If you estimate potential costs or
burdens, explain how you arrived at
your estimate in sufficient detail to
allow for it to be reproduced.
• Provide specific examples to
illustrate your concerns, and suggest
alternatives.
• Explain your views as clearly as
possible, avoiding the use of profanity
or personal threats.
• Make sure to submit your
comments by the comment period
deadline identified.
Availability of Related Information
A number of documents relevant to
this rulemaking are available on EPA
Web sites. The Air Quality Criteria for
Ozone and Related Photochemical
Oxidants (Criteria Document) (two
volumes, EPA/ and EPA/, date) is
available on EPA’s National Center for
Environmental Assessment Web site. To
obtain this document, go to https://
www.epa.gov/ncea, and click on
‘‘Ozone.’’ The Staff Paper, human
exposure and health risk assessments,
vegetation exposure and impact
assessment, and other related technical
documents are available on EPA’s Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards
(OAQPS) Technology Transfer Network
(TTN) Web site. The Staff Paper is
available at https://www.epa.gov/ttn/
naaqs/standards/ozone/
s_o3_cr_sp.html, and the exposure and
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risk assessments and other related
technical documents are available at
https://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/
standards/ozone/s_o3_cr_td.html. EPA
will be making available corrected
versions of the final Staff Paper and
human exposure and health risk
assessment technical support
documents on these same EPA Web
sites on or around July 16, 2007. These
and other related documents are also
available for inspection and copying in
the EPA docket identified above.
Table of Contents
The following topics are discussed in
this preamble:
I. Background
A. Legislative Requirements
B. Related Control Requirements
C. Review of Air Quality Criteria and
Standards for O3
II. Rationale for Proposed Decision on the
Primary Standard
A. Health Effects Information
1. Mechanisms
2. Nature of Effects
3. Interpretation and Integration of the
Health Evidence
4. O3-Related Impacts on Public Health
B. Human Exposure and Health Risk
Assessments
1. Exposure Analyses
2. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment
C. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the
Current Primary Standard
1. Background
2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based
Considerations
3. CASAC Views
4. Administrator’s Proposed Conclusions
Concerning Adequacy of Current
Standard
D. Conclusions on the Elements of the
Primary Standard
1. Indicator
2. Averaging Time
3. Form
4. Level
E. Proposed Decision on the Primary
Standard
III. Communication of Public Health
Information
IV. Rationale for Proposed Decision on the
Secondary Standard
A. Vegetation Effects Information
1. Mechanisms Governing Plant Response
to Ozone
2. Nature of Effects
3. Adversity of Effects
B. Biologically Relevant Exposure Indices
C. Vegetation Exposure and Impact
Assessment
1. Exposure Characterization
2. Assessment of Risks to Vegetation
D. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the
Current Standard
1. Background
2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based
Considerations
3. CASAC Views
4. Administrator’s Proposed Conclusions
Concerning Adequacy of Current
Standard
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E. Conclusions on the Elements of the
Secondary Standard
1. Indicator
2. Cumulative, Seasonal Standard
3. 8-Hour Average Standard
F. Proposed Decision on the Secondary
Standard
V. Creation of Appendix P—Interpretation of
the NAAQS for Ozone
A. Data Completeness
B. Data Handling and Rounding O3
Conventions
VI. Ambient Monitoring Related to Proposed
Revised Standards
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
References
I. Background
A. Legislative Requirements
Two sections of the Clean Air Act
(CAA) govern the establishment and
revision of the NAAQS. Section 108 (42
U.S.C. 7408) directs the Administrator
to identify and list ‘‘air pollutants’’ that
‘‘in his judgment, may reasonably be
anticipated to endanger public health
and welfare’’ and whose ‘‘presence
* * * in the ambient air results from
numerous or diverse mobile or
stationary sources’’ and to issue air
quality criteria for those that are listed.
Air quality criteria are intended to
‘‘accurately reflect the latest scientific
knowledge useful in indicating the kind
and extent of identifiable effects on
public health or welfare which may be
expected from the presence of [a]
pollutant in ambient air * * *.’’
Section 109 (42 U.S.C. 7409) directs
the Administrator to propose and
promulgate ‘‘primary’’ and ‘‘secondary’’
NAAQS for pollutants listed under
section 108. Section 109(b)(1) defines a
primary standard as one ‘‘the attainment
and maintenance of which in the
judgment of the Administrator, based on
such criteria and allowing an adequate
margin of safety, are requisite to protect
the public health.’’ 1 A secondary
standard, as defined in section
109(b)(2), must ‘‘specify a level of air
quality the attainment and maintenance
of which, in the judgment of the
Administrator, based on such criteria, is
requisite to protect the public welfare
from any known or anticipated adverse
effects associated with the presence of
[the] pollutant in the ambient air.’’ 2
1 The legislative history of section 109 indicates
that a primary standard is to be set at ‘‘the
maximum permissible ambient air level * * *
which will protect the health of any [sensitive]
group of the population,’’ and that for this purpose
‘‘reference should be made to a representative
sample of persons comprising the sensitive group
rather than to a single person in such a group’’ [S.
Rep. No. 91–1196, 91st Cong., 2d Sess. 10 (1970)].
2 Welfare effects as defined in section 302(h) (42
U.S.C. 7602(h)) include, but are not limited to,
‘‘effects on soils, water, crops, vegetation, man-
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The requirement that primary
standards include an adequate margin of
safety was intended to address
uncertainties associated with
inconclusive scientific and technical
information available at the time of
standard setting. It was also intended to
provide a reasonable degree of
protection against hazards that research
has not yet identified. Lead Industries
Association v. EPA, 647 F.2d 1130, 1154
(DC Cir 1980), cert. denied, 449 U.S.
1042 (1980); American Petroleum
Institute v. Costle, 665 F.2d 1176, 1186
(D.C. Cir. 1981), cert. denied, 455 U.S.
1034 (1982). Both kinds of uncertainties
are components of the risk associated
with pollution at levels below those at
which human health effects can be said
to occur with reasonable scientific
certainty. Thus, in selecting primary
standards that include an adequate
margin of safety, the Administrator is
seeking not only to prevent pollution
levels that have been demonstrated to be
harmful but also to prevent lower
pollutant levels that may pose an
unacceptable risk of harm, even if the
risk is not precisely identified as to
nature or degree. The CAA does not
require the Administrator to establish a
primary NAAQS at a zero-risk level or
at background concentration levels, see
Lead Industries Association v. EPA, 647
F.2d at 1156 n. 51, but rather at a level
that reduces risk sufficiently so as to
protect public health with an adequate
margin of safety.
In addressing the requirement for an
adequate margin of safety, EPA
considers such factors as the nature and
severity of the health effects involved,
the size of the population(s) at risk, and
the kind and degree of the uncertainties
that must be addressed. The selection of
any particular approach to providing an
adequate margin of safety is a policy
choice left specifically to the
Administrator’s judgment. Lead
Industries Association v. EPA, 647 F.2d
at 1161–62; Whitman v. American
Trucking Associations, 531 U.S. 457,
495 (2001) (Breyer, J., concurring in part
and concurring in judgment).
In setting standards that are
‘‘requisite’’ to protect public health and
welfare, as provided in section 109(b),
EPA’s task is to establish standards that
are neither more nor less stringent than
necessary for these purposes. Whitman
v. American Trucking Associations, 531
U.S. 457, 473. In establishing
‘‘requisite’’ primary and secondary
standards, EPA may not consider the
made materials, animals, wildlife, weather,
visibility and climate, damage to and deterioration
of property, and hazards to transportation, as well
as effects on economic values and on personal
comfort and well-being.’’
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costs of implementing the standards. Id.
at 471. As discussed by Justice Breyer in
Whitman v. American Trucking
Associations, however, ‘‘this
interpretation of § 109 does not require
the EPA to eliminate every health risk,
however slight, at any economic cost,
however great, to the point of ‘‘hurtling’’
industry over ‘‘the brink of ruin,’’ or
even forcing ‘‘deindustrialization.’’ Id.
at 494 (Breyer J., concurring in part and
concurring in judgment) (citations
omitted). Rather, as Justice Breyer
explained:
The statute, by its express terms, does not
compel the elimination of all risk; and it
grants the Administrator sufficient flexibility
to avoid setting ambient air quality standards
ruinous to industry.
Section 109(b)(1) directs the Administrator
to set standards that are ‘‘requisite to protect
the public health’’ with ‘‘an adequate margin
of safety.’’ But these words do not describe
a world that is free of all risk—an impossible
and undesirable objective. (citation omitted).
Nor are the words ‘‘requisite’’ and ‘‘public
health’’ to be understood independent of
context. We consider football equipment
‘‘safe’’ even if its use entails a level of risk
that would make drinking water ‘‘unsafe’’ for
consumption. And what counts as
‘‘requisite’’ to protecting the public health
will similarly vary with background
circumstances, such as the public’s ordinary
tolerance of the particular health risk in the
particular context at issue. The Administrator
can consider such background circumstances
when ‘‘deciding what risks are acceptable in
the world in which we live.’’ (citation
omitted).
The statute also permits the Administrator
to take account of comparative health risks.
That is to say, she may consider whether a
proposed rule promotes safety overall. A rule
likely to cause more harm to health than it
prevents is not a rule that is ‘‘requisite to
protect the public health.’’ For example, as
the Court of Appeals held and the parties do
not contest, the Administrator has the
authority to determine to what extent
possible health risks stemming from
reductions in tropospheric ozone (which, it
is claimed, helps prevent cataracts and skin
cancer) should be taken into account in
setting the ambient air quality standard for
ozone. (citation omitted).
The statute ultimately specifies that the
standard set must be ‘‘requisite to protect the
public health’’ ‘‘in the judgment of the
Administrator,’’ § 109(b)(1), 84 Stat. 1680
(emphasis added), a phrase that grants the
Administrator considerable discretionary
standard-setting authority.
The statute’s words, then, authorize the
Administrator to consider the severity of a
pollutant’s potential adverse health effects,
the number of those likely to be affected, the
distribution of the adverse effects, and the
uncertainties surrounding each estimate.
(citation omitted). They permit the
Administrator to take account of comparative
health consequences. They allow her to take
account of context when determining the
acceptability of small risks to health. And
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they give her considerable discretion when
she does so.
This discretion would seem sufficient to
avoid the extreme results that some of the
industry parties fear. After all, the EPA, in
setting standards that ‘‘protect the public
health’’ with ‘‘an adequate margin of safety,’’
retains discretionary authority to avoid
regulating risks that it reasonably concludes
are trivial in context. Nor need regulation
lead to deindustrialization. Preindustrial
society was not a very healthy society; hence
a standard demanding the return of the Stone
Age would not prove ‘‘requisite to protect the
public health.’’
Although I rely more heavily than does the
Court upon legislative history and alternative
sources of statutory flexibility, I reach the
same ultimate conclusion. Section 109 does
not delegate to the EPA authority to base the
national ambient air quality standards, in
whole or in part, upon the economic costs of
compliance.
Id. at 494–496.
Section 109(d)(1) of the CAA requires
that ‘‘not later than December 31, 1980,
and at 5-year intervals thereafter, the
Administrator shall complete a
thorough review of the criteria
published under section 108 and the
national ambient air quality standards
* * * and shall make such revisions in
such criteria and standards and
promulgate such new standards as may
be appropriate * * *.’’ Section
109(d)(2) requires that an independent
scientific review committee ‘‘shall
complete a review of the criteria * * *
and the national primary and secondary
ambient air quality standards * * * and
shall recommend to the Administrator
any new * * * standards and revisions
of existing criteria and standards as may
be appropriate * * *.’’ This
independent review function is
performed by the Clean Air Scientific
Advisory Committee (CASAC) of EPA’s
Science Advisory Board.
B. Related Control Requirements
States have primary responsibility for
ensuring attainment and maintenance of
ambient air quality standards once EPA
has established them. Under section 110
of the Act (42 U.S.C. 7410) and related
provisions, States are to submit, for EPA
approval, State implementation plans
(SIPs) that provide for the attainment
and maintenance of such standards
through control programs directed to
emission sources. The majority of manmade NOX and VOC emissions that
contribute to O3 formation in the United
States come from three types of sources:
mobile sources, industrial processes
(which include consumer and
commercial products), and the electric
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power industry.3 Mobile sources and
the electric power industry were
responsible for 78 percent of annual
NOX emissions in 2004. That same year,
99 percent of man-made VOC emissions
came from industrial processes
(including solvents) and mobile sources.
Emissions from natural sources, such as
trees, may also comprise a significant
portion of total VOC emissions in
certain regions of the country, especially
during the O3 season, which are
considered natural background
emissions.
EPA has developed new emissions
standards for many types of stationary
sources and for nearly every class of
mobile sources in the last decade to
reduce O3 by decreasing emissions of
NOX and VOC. These programs
complement State and local efforts to
improve O3 air quality and meet current
national standards. Under the Federal
Motor Vehicle Control Program
(FMVCP, see title II of the CAA, 42
U.S.C. 7521–7574), EPA has established
new emissions standards for nearly
every type of automobile, truck, bus,
motorcycle, earth mover, and aircraft
engine, and for the fuels used to power
these engines. EPA also established new
standards for the smaller engines used
in small watercraft, lawn and garden
equipment. Recently EPA proposed new
standards for locomotive and marine
diesel engines. Benefits from engine
standards increase modestly each year
as older, more-polluting vehicles and
engines are replaced with newer,
cleaner models. In time, these programs
will yield substantial emission
reductions. Benefits from fuel programs
generally begin as soon as a new fuel is
available.
The reduction of VOC emissions from
industrial processes has been achieved
either directly or indirectly through
implementation of control technology
standards, including maximum
achievable control technology,
reasonably available control technology,
and best available control technology
standards; or are anticipated due to
proposed or upcoming proposals based
on generally available control
technology or best available controls
under provisions related to consumer
and commercial products. These
standards have resulted in VOC
emission reductions of almost a million
tons per year accumulated starting in
1997 from a variety of sources including
combustion sources, coating categories,
and chemical manufacturing. The EPA
is currently working to finalize new
3 See EPA report, Evaluating Ozone Control
Programs in the Eastern United States: Focus on the
NOX Budget Trading Program, 2004.
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federal rules, or amendments to existing
rules, that will establish new
nationwide VOC content limits for
several categories of consumer and
commercial products, including aerosol
coatings, architectural and industrial
maintenance coatings, and household
and institutional commercial products.
These rules will take effect in 2009, and
will yield significant new reductions in
nationwide VOC emissions—about
200,000 tons per year. Additionally, in
O3 nonattainment areas, we anticipate
reductions of an additional 25,000 tons
per year following completion of control
technique recommendations for 3
additional consumer and commercial
product categories. These emission
reductions primarily result from solvent
controls and typically occur where and
when the solvent is used, such as during
manufacturing processes.
The power industry is one of the
largest emitters of NOX in the United
States. Power industry emission sources
include large electric generating units
and some large industrial boilers and
turbines. The EPA’s landmark Clean Air
Interstate Rule (CAIR), issued on March
10, 2005, permanently caps power
industry emissions of NOX in the
eastern United States. The first phase of
the cap begins in 2009, and a lower
second phase cap begins in 2015. By
2015, EPA projects that the CAIR and
other programs in the Eastern U.S. will
reduce power industry O3 season NOX
emissions in that region by about 50
percent and annual NOX emissions by
about 60 percent from 2003 levels.
With respect to agricultural sources,
the U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) has approved conservation
systems and activities that reduce
agricultural emissions of NOX and VOC.
Current practices that may reduce
emissions of NOX and VOC include
engine replacement programs, diesel
retrofit programs, manipulation of
pesticide applications including timing
of applications, and animal feeding
operations waste management
techniques. The EPA recognizes that
USDA has been working with the
agricultural community to develop
conservation systems and activities to
control emissions of O3 precursors.
These conservation activities are
voluntarily adopted through the use of
incentives provided to the agricultural
producer. In cases where the States need
these measures to attain the standard,
the measures could be adopted. The
EPA will continue to work with USDA
on these activities with efforts to
identify and/or improve the control
efficiencies, prioritize the adoption of
these conservation systems and
activities, and ensure that appropriate
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criteria are used for identifying the most
effective application of conservation
systems and activities.
The EPA will work together with
USDA and with States to identify
appropriate measures to meet the
primary and secondary standards,
including site-specific conservation
systems and activities. Based on prior
experience identifying conservation
measures and practices to meet the PM
NAAQS requirements, the EPA will use
a similar process to identify measures
that could meet the O3 requirements.
The EPA anticipates that certain USDAapproved conservation systems and
activities that reduce agricultural
emissions of NOX and VOC may be able
to satisfy the requirements for
applicable sources to implement
reasonably available control measures
for purposes of attaining the primary
and secondary O3 NAAQS.
C. Review of Air Quality Criteria and
Standards for O3
Tropospheric (ground-level) O3 is
formed from biogenic and
anthropogenic precursor emissions.
Naturally occurring O3 in the
troposphere can result from biogenic
organic precursors reacting with
naturally occurring nitrogen oxides
(NOX) and by stratospheric O3 intrusion
into the troposphere. Anthropogenic
precursors of O3, specifically NOX and
volatile organic compounds (VOC),
originate from a wide variety of
stationary and mobile sources. Ambient
O3 concentrations produced by these
emissions are directly affected by
temperature, solar radiation, wind speed
and other meteorological factors.
The last review of the O3 NAAQS was
completed on July 18, 1997, based on
the 1996 O3 CD (U.S. EPA, 1996a) and
1996 O3 Staff Paper (U.S. EPA, 1996b).
EPA revised the primary and secondary
O3 standards on the basis of the then
latest scientific evidence linking
exposures to ambient O3 to adverse
health and welfare effects at levels
allowed by the 1-hour average standards
(62 FR 38856). The O3 standards were
revised by replacing the existing
primary 1-hour average standard with
an 8-hour average O3 standard set at a
level of 0.08 ppm, which is equivalent
to 0.084 ppm using the standard
rounding conventions. The form of the
primary standard was changed to the
annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8hour average concentration, averaged
over three years. The secondary O3
standard was changed by making it
identical in all respects to the revised
primary standard.
Following promulgation of the revised
O3 NAAQS, petitions for review were
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filed addressing a broad range of issues.
In May 1999, in response to those
challenges, the U.S. Court of Appeals for
the District of Columbia Circuit held
that EPA’s approach to establishing the
level of the standards in 1997, both for
the O3 and for the particulate matter
(PM) NAAQS promulgated on the same
day, effected ‘‘an unconstitutional
delegation of legislative authority.’’
American Trucking Associations v.
EPA, 175 F.3d 1027 (DC Cir., 1999).
Although the D.C. Circuit stated that
‘‘factors EPA uses in determining the
degree of public health concern
associated with different levels of O3
and PM are reasonable,’’ it remanded
the rule to EPA, stating that when EPA
considers these factors for potential
non-threshold pollutants ‘‘what EPA
lacks is any determinate criterion for
drawing lines’’ to determine where the
standards should be set. Id. at 1034.
Consistent with EPA’s long-standing
interpretation and DC Circuit precedent,
the court also reaffirmed prior rulings
holding that in setting the NAAQS, it is
‘‘not permitted to consider the cost of
implementing those standards.’’ Id. at
1040–41. The DC Circuit further
directed EPA to consider on remand the
potential indirect beneficial health
effects of O3 pollution in shielding the
public from the effects of solar
ultraviolet (UV) radiation, as well as the
direct adverse health effects of O3
pollution.
Both sides filed cross appeals on the
constitutional and cost issues to the
United States Supreme Court, and the
Court granted certiorari. On February
27, 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court issued
a unanimous decision upholding the
EPA’s position on both the
constitutional and the cost issues.
Whitman v. American Trucking
Associations, 531 U.S. at 464, 475–76.
On the constitutional issue, the Court
held that the statutory requirement that
NAAQS be ‘‘requisite’’ to protect public
health with an adequate margin of safety
sufficiently guided EPA’s discretion,
affirming EPA’s approach of setting
standards that are neither more nor less
stringent than necessary. The Supreme
Court remanded the case to the D.C.
Circuit for resolution of any remaining
issues that had not been addressed by
that Court’s earlier decisions. Id. at 475–
76. On March 26, 2002, the D.C. Circuit
Court rejected all remaining challenges
to the NAAQS, holding under
traditional standard of review that EPA
‘‘engaged in reasoned decision-making’’
in setting the 1997 O3 NAAQS.
Whitman v. American Trucking
Associations, 283 F.3d 355 (DC Cir.
2002).
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In response to the DC Circuit Court’s
remand to consider the potential
indirect beneficial health effects of O3 in
shielding the public from the effects of
solar (UV) radiation, on November 14,
2001, EPA proposed to leave the 1997
8-hour NAAQS unchanged (66 FR
57267). After considering public
comment on the proposed decision,
EPA reaffirmed the 8-hour O3 NAAQS
set in 1997 (68 FR 614). Finally, on
April 30, 2004, EPA issued an 8-hour
implementation rule that, among other
things, provided that the 1-hour O3
NAAQS would no longer apply to areas
one year after the effective date of the
designation of those areas for the 8-hour
NAAQS (69 FR 23966).4 For most areas,
the date that the 1-hour NAAQS no
longer applied was June 15, 2005. (See
40 CFR 50.9 for details.)
The EPA initiated this current review
in September 2000 with a call for
information (65 FR 57810) for the
development of a revised Air Quality
Criteria Document for O3 and Other
Photochemical Oxidants (henceforth the
‘‘Criteria Document’’). A project work
plan (U.S. EPA, 2002) for the
preparation of the Criteria Document
was released in November 2002 for
CASAC and public review. EPA held a
series of workshops in mid-2003 on
several draft chapters of the Criteria
Document to obtain broad input from
the relevant scientific communities.
These workshops helped to inform the
preparation of the first draft Criteria
Document (EPA, 2005a), which was
released for CASAC and public review
on January 31, 2005; a CASAC meeting
was held on May 4–5, 2005 to review
the first draft Criteria Document. A
second draft Criteria Document (EPA,
2005b) was released for CASAC and
public review on August 31, 2005, and
was discussed along with a first draft
Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c) at a CASAC
meeting held on December 6–8, 2005. In
a February 16, 2006 letter to the
Administrator, the CASAC offered final
comments on all chapters of the Criteria
Document (Henderson, 2006a), and the
final Criteria Document (EPA, 2006a)
was released on March 21, 2006. In a
June 8, 2006 letter (Henderson, 2006b)
to the Administrator, the CASAC offered
additional advice to the Agency
concerning chapter 8 of the final Criteria
Document (Integrative Synthesis) to
help inform the second draft Staff Paper.
A second draft Staff Paper (EPA,
2006b) was released on July 17, 2006
and reviewed by CASAC on August 24
4 On December 22, 2006, the D.C. Circuit vacated
the April 30, 2004 implementation rule. South
Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA, 472
F.3d 882. In March 2007, EPA requested the Court
to reconsider its decision.
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and 25, 2006. In an October 24, 2006
letter to the Administrator, CASAC
provided advice and recommendations
to the Agency concerning the second
draft Staff Paper (Henderson, 2006c). A
final Staff Paper (EPA, 2007) was
released on January 31, 2007. Around
the time of the release of the final Staff
Paper in January 2007, EPA discovered
a small error in the exposure model that
when corrected resulted in slight
increases in the human exposure
estimates. Since the exposure estimates
are an input to the lung function portion
of the health risk assessment, this
correction also resulted in slight
increases in the lung function risk
estimates as well. The exposure and risk
estimates discussed in this notice reflect
the corrected estimates, and thus are
slightly different than the exposure and
risk estimates cited in the January 31,
2007 Staff Paper.5 In a March 26, 2007
letter (Henderson, 2007), CASAC offered
additional advice to the Administrator
with regard to recommendations and
revisions to the primary and secondary
O3 NAAQS.
The schedule for completion of this
review is governed by a consent decree
resolving a lawsuit filed in March 2003
by a group of plaintiffs representing
national environmental and public
health organizations, alleging that EPA
had failed to complete the current
review within the period provided by
statute.6 The modified consent decree
that governs this review, entered by the
court on December 16, 2004, provides
that EPA sign for publication notices of
proposed and final rulemaking
concerning its review of the O3 NAAQS
no later than March 28, 2007 and
December 19, 2007, respectively. This
consent decree was further modified in
October 2006 to change these proposed
and final rulemaking dates to no later
than May 30, 2007 and February 20,
2008, respectively. These dates for
signing the publication notices of
proposed and final rulemaking were
further extended to no later than June
20, 2007 and March 12, 2008,
respectively.
This action presents the
Administrator’s proposed decisions on
the review of the current primary and
secondary O3 standards. Throughout
this preamble a number of conclusions,
findings, and determinations proposed
by the Administrator are noted. While
5 EPA plans to make available corrected versions
of the final Staff Paper and the human exposure and
health risk assessment technical support documents
on or around July 16, 2007 on the EPA web site
listed in the Availability of Related Information
section of this notice.
6 American Lung Association v. Whitman (No.
1:03CV00778, D.D.C. 2003).
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they identify the reasoning that supports
this proposal, they are not intended to
be final or conclusive in nature. The
EPA invites general, specific, and/or
technical comments on all issues
involved with this proposal, including
all such proposed judgments,
conclusions, findings, and
determinations.
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II. Rationale for Proposed Decision on
the Primary Standard
This section presents the rationale for
the Administrator’s proposed decision
to revise the existing 8-hour O3 primary
standard by lowering the level of the
standard to within a range from 0.070 to
0.075 ppm, and to specify the standard
to the nearest thousandth ppm (i.e., to
the nearest parts per billion). As
discussed more fully below, this
rationale is based on a thorough review,
in the Criteria Document, of the latest
scientific information on human health
effects associated with the presence of
O3 in the ambient air. This rationale also
takes into account and is consistent
with: (1) Staff assessments of the most
policy-relevant information in the
Criteria Document and staff analyses of
air quality, human exposure, and health
risks, presented in the Staff Paper, upon
which staff recommendations for
revisions to the primary O3 standard are
based; (2) CASAC advice and
recommendations, as reflected in
discussions of drafts of the Criteria
Document and Staff Paper at public
meetings, in separate written comments,
and in CASAC’s letters to the
Administrator; and (3) public comments
received during the development of
these documents, either in connection
with CASAC meetings or separately.
In developing this rationale, EPA has
drawn upon an integrative synthesis of
the entire body of evidence, published
through early 2006, on human health
effects associated with the presence of
O3 in the ambient air. As discussed
below in section II.A, this body of
evidence addresses a broad range of
health endpoints associated with
exposure to ambient levels of O3 (EPA,
2006a, chapter 8), and includes over one
hundred epidemiologic studies
conducted in the U.S., Canada, and
many countries around the world.7 In
considering this evidence, EPA focuses
on those health endpoints that have
been demonstrated to be caused by
7 In its assessment of the epidemiological
evidence judged to be most relevant to making
decisions on the level of the O3 primary standard,
EPA has placed greater weight on U.S. and
Canadian epidemiologic studies, since studies
conducted in other countries may well reflect
different demographic and air pollution
characteristics.
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exposure to O3, or for which the Criteria
Document judges associations with O3
to be causal, likely causal, or for which
the evidence is highly suggestive that O3
contributes to the reported effects. This
rationale also draws upon the results of
quantitative exposure and risk
assessments, discussed below in section
II.B. Evidence- and exposure/risk-based
considerations that form the basis for
the Administrator’s proposed decisions
on the adequacy of the current standard
and on the elements of the range of
proposed alternative standards are
discussed below in sections II.C and
II.D, respectively.
Judgments made in the Criteria
Document and Staff Paper about the
extent to which relationships between
various health endpoints and short-term
exposures to ambient O3 are likely
causal have been informed by several
factors. As discussed below in section
II.A, these factors include the nature of
the evidence (i.e., controlled human
exposure, epidemiological, and/or
toxicological studies) and the weight of
evidence, which takes into account such
considerations as biological plausibility,
coherence of evidence, strength of
association, and consistency of
evidence.
In assessing the health effects data
base for O3, it is clear that human
studies provide the most directly
applicable information for determining
causality because they are not limited
by the uncertainties of dosimetry
differences and species sensitivity
differences, which would need to be
addressed in extrapolating animal
toxicology data to human health effects.
Controlled human exposure studies
provide data with the highest level of
confidence since they provide human
effects data under closely monitored
conditions and can provide exposureresponse relationships. Epidemiological
data provide evidence of associations
between ambient O3 levels and more
serious acute and chronic health effects
(e.g., hospital admissions and mortality)
that cannot be assessed in controlled
human exposure studies. For these
studies the degree of uncertainty
introduced by confounding variables
(e.g., other pollutants, temperature) and
other factors affects the level of
confidence that the health effects being
investigated are attributable to O3
exposures, alone and in combination
with other copollutants.
In using a weight of evidence
approach to inform judgments about the
degree of confidence that various health
effects are likely to be caused by
exposure to O3, confidence increases as
the number of studies consistently
reporting a particular health endpoint
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grows and as other factors, such as
biological plausibility and strength,
consistency, and coherence of evidence,
increase. Conclusions regarding
biological plausibility, consistency, and
coherence of evidence of O3-related
health effects are drawn from the
integration of epidemiological studies
with mechanistic information from
controlled human exposure studies and
animal toxicological studies. As
discussed below, this type of
mechanistic linkage has been firmly
established for several respiratory
endpoints (e.g., lung function
decrements, lung inflammation) but
remains far more equivocal for
cardiovascular endpoints (e.g.,
cardiovascular-related hospital
admissions). For epidemiological
studies, strength of association refers to
the magnitude of the association and its
statistical strength, which includes
assessment of both effects estimate size
and precision. In general, when
associations yield large relative risk
estimates, it is less likely that the
association could be completely
accounted for by a potential confounder
or some other bias. Consistency refers to
the persistent finding of an association
between exposure and outcome in
multiple studies of adequate power in
different persons, places, circumstances
and times. For example, the magnitude
of effect estimates is relatively
consistent across recent studies showing
association between short-term, but not
long-term, O3 exposure and mortality.
Based on the information discussed
below in sections II.A.1–II.A.3,
judgments concerning the extent to
which relationships between various
health endpoints and ambient O3
exposures are likely causal are
summarized below in section II.A.3.c.
These judgments reflect the nature of
the evidence and the overall weight of
the evidence, and are taken into
consideration in the quantitative
exposure and risk assessments,
discussed below in Section II.B.
To put judgments about health effects
that have been demonstrated to be
caused by exposure to O3, or for which
the Criteria Document judges
associations with O3 to be causal, likely
causal, or for which the evidence is
highly suggestive that O3 contributes to
the reported effects into a broader
public health context, EPA has drawn
upon the results of the quantitative
exposure and risk assessments. These
assessments provide estimates of the
likelihood that individuals in particular
population groups that are at risk for
various O3-related physiological health
effects would experience ‘‘exposures of
concern’’ and specific health endpoints
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under varying air quality scenarios (e.g.,
just meeting the current or alternative
standards), as well as characterizations
of the kind and degree of uncertainties
inherent in such estimates.
In this review, the term ‘‘exposures of
concern’’ is defined as personal
exposures while at moderate or greater
exertion to 8-hour average ambient O3
levels at and above specific benchmark
levels which represent exposure levels
at which O3-related health effects are
known or can reasonably be inferred to
occur in some individuals, as discussed
below in section II.B.1.8 EPA
emphasizes that although the analysis of
‘‘exposures of concern’’ was conducted
using three discrete benchmark levels
(i.e., 0.080, 0.070, and 0.060 ppm), the
concept is more appropriately viewed as
a continuum with greater confidence
and less uncertainty about the existence
of health effects at the upper end and
less confidence and greater uncertainty
as one considers increasingly lower O3
exposure levels. EPA recognizes that
there is no sharp breakpoint within the
continuum ranging from at and above
0.080 ppm down to 0.060 ppm. In
considering the concept of exposures of
concern, it is important to balance
concerns about the potential for health
effects and their severity with the
increasing uncertainty associated with
our understanding of the likelihood of
such effects at lower O3 levels.
Within the context of this continuum,
estimates of exposures of concern at
discrete benchmark levels provide some
perspective on the public health
impacts of O3-related health effects that
have been demonstrated in human
clinical and toxicological studies but
cannot be evaluated in quantitative risk
assessments, such as lung inflammation,
increased airway responsiveness, and
changes in host defenses. They also help
in understanding the extent to which
such impacts have the potential to be
reduced by meeting the current and
alternative standards. These O3-related
physiological effects are plausibly
linked to the increased morbidity seen
in epidemiological studies (e.g., as
indicated by increased medication use
in asthmatics, school absences in all
8 Exposures of concern were also considered in
the last review of the O3 NAAQS, and were judged
by EPA to be an important indicator of the public
health impacts of those O3-related effects for which
information was too limited to develop quantitative
estimates of risk but which had been observed in
humans at and above the benchmark level of 0.08
ppm for 6-to 8-hour exposures * * * including
increased nonspecific bronchial responsiveness (for
example, aggravation of asthma), decreased
pulmonary defense mechanisms (suggestive of
increased susceptibility to respiratory infection),
and indicators of pulmonary inflammation (related
to potential aggravation of chronic bronchitis or
long-term damage to the lungs). (62 FR 38868)
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children, and emergency department
visits and hospital admissions in people
with lung disease). Estimates of the
number of people likely to experience
exposures of concern cannot be directly
translated into quantitative estimates of
the number of people likely to
experience specific health effects, since
sufficient information to draw such
comparisons is not available—if such
information were available, these health
outcomes would have been included in
the quantitative risk assessment. Due to
individual variability in responsiveness,
only a subset of individuals who have
exposures at and above a specific
benchmark level can be expected to
experience such adverse health effects,
and susceptible subpopulations such as
those with asthma are expected to be
affected more by such exposures than
healthy individuals. The amount of
weight to place on the estimates of
exposures of concern at any of these
benchmark levels depends in part on
the weight of the scientific evidence
concerning health effects associated
with O3 exposures at and above that
benchmark level. It also depends on
judgments about the importance from a
public health perspective of the health
effects that are known or can reasonably
be inferred to occur as a result of
exposures at and above the benchmark
level. Such public health policy
judgments are embodied in the NAAQS
standard setting criteria (i.e., standards
that, in the judgment of the
Administrator, are requisite to protect
public health with an adequate margin
of safety).
As discussed below in section II.B.2,
the quantitative health risk assessment
conducted as part of this review
includes estimates of risks of lung
function decrements in asthmatic and
all school age children, respiratory
symptoms in asthmatic children,
respiratory-related hospital admissions,
and non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory-related mortality
associated with recent ambient O3
levels, as well as risk reductions and
remaining risks associated with just
meeting the current and various
alternative O3 standards in a number of
example urban areas. There were two
parts to this risk assessment: one part
was based on combining information
from controlled human exposure studies
with modeled population exposure, and
the other part was based on combining
information from community
epidemiological studies with either
monitored or adjusted ambient
concentrations levels. This assessment
not only provided estimates of the
potential magnitude of O3-related health
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effects, as well as a characterization of
the uncertainties and variability
inherent in such estimates. This
assessment also provided insights into
the distribution of risks and patterns of
risk reductions associated with meeting
alternative O3 standards.
As discussed below, a substantial
amount of new research has been
conducted since the last review of the
O3 NAAQS, with important new
information coming from epidemiologic
studies as well as from controlled
human exposure, toxicological, and
dosimetric studies. The newly available
research studies evaluated in the
Criteria Document and the exposure and
risk assessments presented in the Staff
Paper have undergone intensive
scrutiny through multiple layers of peer
review and many opportunities for
public review and comment. While
important uncertainties remain in the
qualitative and quantitative
characterizations of health effects
attributable to exposure to ambient O3,
the review of this information has been
extensive and deliberate. In the
judgment of the Administrator, this
intensive evaluation of the scientific
evidence has provided an adequate
basis for regulatory decision making.
This review also provides important
input to EPA’s research plan for
improving our future understanding of
the effects of ambient O3 at lower levels,
especially in at-risk population groups.
A. Health Effects Information
This section outlines key information
contained in the Criteria Document
(chapters 4–8) and in the Staff Paper
(chapter 3) on known or potential effects
on public health which may be expected
from the presence of O3 in ambient air.
The information highlighted here
summarizes: (1) New information
available on potential mechanisms for
health effects associated with exposure
to O3; (2) the nature of effects that have
been associated directly with exposure
to O3 and indirectly with the presence
of O3 in ambient air; (3) an integrative
interpretation of the evidence, focusing
on the biological plausibility and
coherence of the evidence; and (4)
considerations in characterizing the
public health impact of O3, including
the identification of ‘‘at risk’’
subpopulations.
The decision in the last review
focused primarily on evidence from
short-term (e.g., 1 to 3 hours) and
prolonged ( 6 to 8 hours) controlledexposure studies reporting lung
function decrements, respiratory
symptoms, and respiratory
inflammation in humans, as well as
epidemiology studies reporting excess
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hospital admissions and emergency
department (ED) visits for respiratory
causes. The Criteria Document prepared
for this review emphasizes a large
number of epidemiological studies
published since the last review with
these and additional health endpoints,
including the effects of acute (short-term
and prolonged) and chronic exposures
to O3 on lung function decrements and
enhanced respiratory symptoms in
asthmatic individuals, school absences,
and premature mortality. It also
emphasizes important new information
from toxicology, dosimetry, and
controlled human exposure studies.
Highlights of the evidence include:
(1) Two new controlled humanexposure studies are now available that
examine respiratory effects associated
with prolonged O3 exposures at levels
below 0.080 ppm, which was the lowest
exposure level that had been examined
in the last review.
(2) Numerous controlled humanexposure studies have examined
indicators of O3-induced inflammatory
response in both the upper respiratory
tract (URT) and lower respiratory tract
(LRT), while other studies have
examined changes in host defense
capability following O3 exposure of
healthy young adults and increased
airway responsiveness to allergens in
subjects with allergic asthma and
allergic rhinitis exposed to O3.
(3) Animal toxicology studies provide
new information regarding mechanisms
of action, increased susceptibility to
respiratory infection, and the biological
plausibility of acute effects and chronic,
irreversible respiratory damage.
(4) Numerous acute exposure
epidemiological studies published
during the past decade offer added
evidence of ambient O3-related lung
function decrements and respiratory
symptoms in physically active healthy
subjects and asthmatic subjects, as well
as evidence on new health endpoints,
such as the relationships between
ambient O3 concentrations and school
absenteeism and between ambient O3
and cardiac-related physiological
endpoints.
(5) Several additional studies have
been published over the last decade
examining the temporal associations
between O3 exposures and emergency
department visits for respiratory
diseases and on respiratory-related
hospital admissions.
(6) A large number of newly available
epidemiological studies have examined
the effects of acute exposure to PM and
O3 on mortality, notably including large
multicity studies that provide much
more robust and credible information
than was available in the last review, as
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well as recent meta-analyses that have
evaluated potential sources of
heterogeneity in O3-mortality
associations.
1. Overview of Mechanisms
Evidence on possible mechanisms by
which exposure to O3 may result in
acute and chronic health effects is
discussed in chapters 5 and 6 of the
Criteria Document.9 Evidence from
dosimetry, toxicology, and human
exposure studies has contributed to an
understanding of the mechanisms that
help to explain the biological
plausibility and coherence of evidence
for O3-induced respiratory health effects
reported in epidemiological studies.
More detailed information about the
physiological mechanisms related to the
respiratory effects of short- and longterm exposure to O3 can be found in
section II.A.3.b.i and II.A.3.b.iii,
respectively. In the past, however, little
information was available to help
explain potential biological mechanisms
which linked O3 exposure to premature
mortality or cardiovascular effects. As
discussed more fully in section
II.A.3.b.ii below, since the last review
an emerging body of animal toxicology
and human clinical evidence is
beginning to suggest mechanisms that
may mediate acute O3 cardiovascular
effects. While much is known about
mechanisms that play a role in O3related respiratory effects, additional
research is needed to more clearly
understand the role that O3 may have in
contributing to cardiovascular effects.
With regard to the mechanisms
related to short-term respiratory effects,
scientific evidence discussed in the
Criteria Document (section 5.2)
indicates that reactions of O3 with lipids
and antioxidants in the epithelial lining
fluid and the epithelial cell membranes
of the lung can be the initial step in
mediating deleterious health effects of
O3. This initial step activates a cascade
of events that lead to oxidative stress,
injury, inflammation, airway epithelial
damage and increased alveolar
permeability to vascular fluids.
Inflammation can be accompanied by
increased airway responsiveness, which
is an increased bronchoconstrictive
response to airway irritants and
allergens. Continued respiratory
inflammation also can alter the ability to
respond to infectious agents, allergens
and toxins. Acute inflammatory
responses to O3 in some healthy people
9 While most of the available evidence addresses
mechanisms for O3, O3 clearly serves as an indicator
for the total photochemical oxidant mixture found
in the ambient air. Some effects may be caused by
one or more components in the overall pollutant
mix, either separately or in combination with O3.
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are well documented, and precursors to
lung injury can become apparent within
3 hours after exposure in humans.
Repeated respiratory inflammation can
lead to a chronic inflammatory state
with altered lung structure and lung
function and may lead to chronic
respiratory diseases such as fibrosis and
emphysema (EPA, 2006a, section 8.6.2).
The severity of symptoms and
magnitude of response to acute
exposures depend on inhaled dose, as
well as individual susceptibility to O3,
as discussed below. At the same O3
dose, individuals who are more
susceptible to O3 will have a larger
response than those who are less
susceptible; among individuals with
similar susceptibility, those who receive
a larger dose will have a larger response
to O3.
The inhaled dose is the product of O3
concentration (C), minute ventilation or
ventilation rate, and duration of
exposure (T), or (C x ventilation rate x
T). A large body of data regarding the
interdependent effect of these
components of inhaled dose on
pulmonary responses was assessed in
the 1986 and 1996 O3 Criteria
Documents. In an attempt to describe O3
dose-response characteristics, acute
responses were modeled as a function of
total inhaled O3 dose which was
generally found to be a better predictor
of response than O3 concentration,
ventilation rate, or duration of exposure,
alone, or as a combination of any two
of these factors (EPA 2006a, section 6.2).
Predicted O3-induced decrements in
lung function have been shown to be a
function of exposure concentration,
duration and exercise level for healthy,
young adults (McDonnell et al., 1997). A
meta-analysis of 21 studies (Mudway
and Kelly, 2004) showed that markers of
inflammation and increased cellular
permeability in healthy subjects are
associated with total O3 dose.
The Criteria Document summarizes
information on potentially susceptible
and vulnerable groups in section 8.7. As
described there, the term susceptibility
refers to innate (e.g., genetic or
developmental) or acquired (e.g.,
personal risk factors, age) factors that
make individuals more likely to
experience effects with exposure to
pollutants. A number of population
groups have been identified as
potentially susceptible to health effects
as a result of O3 exposure, including
people with existing lung diseases,
including asthma, children and older
adults, and people who have larger than
normal lung function responses that
may be due to genetic susceptibility. In
addition, some population groups have
been identified as having increased
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vulnerability to O3-related effects due to
increased likelihood of exposure while
at elevated ventilation rates, including
healthy children and adults who are
active outdoors, for example, outdoor
workers, and joggers. Taken together,
the susceptible and vulnerable groups
are more commonly referred to as ‘‘atrisk’’ groups 10, as discussed more fully
below in section II.A.4.b.
Based on new evidence from animal,
human clinical and epidemiological
studies the Criteria Document concludes
that people with preexisting pulmonary
disease are likely to be among those at
increased risk from O3 exposure.
Altered physiological, morphological
and biochemical states typical of
respiratory diseases like asthma, COPD
and chronic bronchitis may render
people sensitive to additional oxidative
burden induced by O3 exposure (EPA
2006a, section 8.7). Children and adults
with asthma are the group that has been
studied most extensively. Evidence from
controlled human exposure studies
indicates that asthmatics may exhibit
larger lung function decrements in
response to O3 exposure than healthy
controls. As discussed more fully in
section II.A.4.b.ii below, asthmatics
present a differential response profile
for cellular, molecular, and biochemical
parameters (CD, Figure 8–1) that are
altered in response to acute O3
exposure. They can have larger
inflammatory responses, as manifested
by larger increases in markers of
inflammation such as white bloods cells
(e.g., PMNs) or inflammatory cytokines.
Asthmatics, and people with allergic
rhinitis, are more likely to mount an
allergic-type response upon exposure to
O3, as manifested by increases in white
blood cells associated with allergy (i.e.,
eosinophils) and related molecules,
which increase inflammation in the
airways. The increased inflammatory
and allergic responses also may be
associated with the larger late-phase
responses that asthmatics can
experience, which can include
increased bronchoconstrictor responses
to irritant substances or allergens and
additional inflammation. These more
serious responses in asthmatics and
others with lung disease provide
biological plausibility for the respiratory
10 In previous Staff Papers and Federal Register
notices announcing proposed and final decisions on
the O3 and other NAAQS, EPA has used the phrase
‘‘sensitive population groups’’ to include both
population groups that are at increased risk because
they are more susceptible and population groups
that are at increased risk due to increased
vulnerability or exposure. In this notice, we use the
phrase, ‘‘at risk’’ populations to include both types
of population groups.
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morbidity effects observed in
epidemiological studies.
Children with and without asthma
were found to be particularly
susceptible to O3 effects on lung
function and generally have greater lung
function responses than older people.
The American Academy of Pediatrics
(2004) notes that children and infants
are among the population groups most
susceptible to many air pollutants,
including O3. This is in part because
their lungs are still developing. For
example, eighty percent of alveoli are
formed after birth, and changes in lung
development continue through
adolescence (Dietert et al., 2000).
Moreover, children have high minute
ventilation rates and relatively high
levels of physical activity which also
increases their O3 dose (Plunkett et al.,
1992). Thus, children are at risk due to
both their susceptibility and
vulnerability.
Looking more broadly at age-related
differences in susceptibility, several
mortality studies have investigated agerelated differences in O3 effects (EPA,
2006a, section 7.6.7.2), primarily in the
older adult population. Among the
studies that observed positive
associations between O3 and mortality,
a comparison of all age or younger age
(65 years of age) O3-mortality effect
estimates to that of the elderly
population (>65 years) indicates that, in
general, the elderly population is more
susceptible to O3 mortality effects.
There is supporting evidence of agerelated differences in susceptibility to
O3 lung function effects. The Criteria
Document concludes that the elderly
population (>65 years of age) appears to
be at greater risk of O3-related mortality
and hospitalizations compared to all
ages or younger populations, and
children (<18 years of age) experience
other potentially adverse respiratory
health outcomes with increased O3
exposure (EPA, 2006a, section 7.6.7.2).
Controlled human exposure studies
have also indicated a high degree of
interindividual variability in some of
the pulmonary physiological
parameters, such as lung function
decrements. The variable effects in
individuals have been found to be
reproducible, in other words, a person
who has a large lung function response
after exposure to O3 will likely have
about the same response if exposed
again to the same dose of O3 (EPA
2006a, p. 6–2). In human clinical
studies, group mean responses are not
representative of this segment of the
population that has much larger than
average responses to O3. Recent studies,
discussed in section II.A.4.iv below,
reported a role for genetic
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polymorphism (i.e., the occurrence
together in the same population of more
than one allele or genetic marker at the
same locus with the least frequent allele
or marker occurring more frequently
than can be accounted for by mutation
alone) in observed differences in
antioxidant enzymes and genes
involved in inflammation to modulate
pulmonary function and inflammatory
responses to O3 exposure. These
observations suggest a potential role for
these markers in the innate
susceptibility to O3, however, the
validity of these markers and their
relevance in the context of prediction to
population studies needs additional
experimentation.
Clinical studies that provide
information about mechanisms of the
initial response to O3 (e.g., lung function
decrements, inflammation, and injury to
the lung) also inform the selection of
appropriate lag times to analyze in
epidemiological studies through
elucidation of the time course of these
responses (EPA 2006a, section 8.4.3).
Based on the results of these studies, it
would be reasonable to expect that lung
function decrements could be detected
epidemiologically within lags of 0 (same
day) or 1 to 2 days following O3
exposure, given the rapid onset of lung
function changes and their persistence
for 24 to 48 hours among more
responsive human subjects in clinical
studies. Other responses take longer to
develop and can persist for longer
periods of time. For example, although
asthmatic individuals may begin to
experience symptoms soon after O3
exposure, it may take anywhere from 1
to 3 days after exposure for these
subjects to seek medical attention as a
result of increased airway
responsiveness or inflammation that
may persist for 2 to 3 days. This may be
reflected by epidemiologic observations
of significantly increased risk for
asthma-related emergency department
visits or hospital admissions with 1- to
3-day lags, or, perhaps, enhanced
distributed lag risks (combined across 3
days) for such morbidity indicators.
Analogously, one might project
increased mortality within 0 to 3 day
lags as a possible consequence of O3induced increases in clotting agents
arising from the cascade of events,
starting with cell injury described
above, occurring within 12 to 24 hours
of O3 exposure. The time course for
many of these initial responses to O3 is
highly variable. Moreover these
observations pertain only to the initial
response to O3. Consequent responses
¨
can follow. For example, Jorres et al.,
(1996) found that in subjects with
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asthma and allergic rhinitis, a maximum
percent fall in FEV1 of 27.9% and 7.8%,
respectively, occurred 3 days after O3
exposure when they were challenged
with the highest common dose of
allergen.
2. Nature of Effects
The Criteria Document provides new
evidence that notably enhances our
understanding of short-term and
prolonged exposure effects, including
effects on lung function, symptoms, and
inflammatory effects reported in
controlled exposure studies. These
studies support and extend the findings
of the previous Criteria Document.
There is also a significant body of new
epidemiological evidence of
associations between short-term and
prolonged exposure to O3 and effects
such as premature mortality, hospital
admissions and emergency department
visits for respiratory (e.g., asthma)
causes. Key epidemiological and
controlled human exposure studies are
summarized below and discussed in
chapter 3 of the Staff Paper, which is
based on scientific evidence critically
reviewed in chapters 5, 6, and 7 of the
Criteria Document, as well as the
Criteria Document’s integration of
scientific evidence contained in chapter
8.11 Conclusions drawn about O3-related
health effects are based upon the full
body of evidence from controlled
human exposure, epidemiological and
toxicological data contained in the
Criteria Document.
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a. Morbidity
This section summarizes scientific
information on the effects of inhalation
of O3, including public health effects of
short-term, prolonged, and long-term
exposures on respiratory morbidity and
cardiovascular system effects, as
discussed in chapters 6, 7 and 8 of the
Criteria Document and chapter 3 of the
Staff Paper. This section also
summarizes the uncertainty about the
potential indirect effects on public
health associated with changes due to
increases in UV–B radiation exposure,
such as UV–B radiation-related skin
cancers, that may be associated with
reductions in ambient levels of groundlevel O3, as discussed in chapter 10 of
the Criteria Document and chapter 3 of
the Staff Paper.
11 Health effects discussions are also drawn from
the more detailed information and tables presented
in the Criteria Document’s annexes.
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i. Effects on the Respiratory System
From Short-Term and Prolonged O3
Exposures
Controlled human exposure studies
have shown that O3 induces a variety of
health effects, including: lung function
decrements, respiratory symptoms,
increased airway responsiveness,
respiratory inflammation and
permeability, increased susceptibility to
respiratory infection, and acute
morphological effects. Epidemiology
studies have reported associations
between O3 exposures (i.e., 1-hour,
8-hour and 24-hour) and a wide range
of respiratory-related health effects
including: Pulmonary function
decrements; respiratory symptoms;
increased asthma medication use;
increased school absences; increased
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions.
(a) Pulmonary Function Decrements,
Respiratory Symptoms, and Asthma
Medication Use
(i) Results From Controlled Human
Exposure Studies
A large number of studies published
prior to 1996 that investigated shortterm O3 exposure health effects on the
respiratory system from short-term O3
exposures were reviewed in the 1986
and 1996 Criteria Documents (EPA,
1986, 1996). In the last review, 0.50
ppm was the lowest O3 concentration at
which statistically significant
reductions in forced vital capacity (FVC)
and forced expiratory volume in 1
second (FEV1) were reported in
sedentary subjects. During exercise,
spirometric (lung function) and
symptomatic responses were observed
at much lower O3 exposures. When
minute ventilation was considerably
increased by continuous exercise (CE)
during O3 exposures lasting 2 hour or
less at ≥ 0.12 ppm, healthy subjects
generally experienced decreases in
FEV1, FVC, and other measures of lung
function; increases in specific airway
resistance (sRaw), breathing frequency,
and airway responsiveness; and
symptoms such as cough, pain on deep
inspiration, shortness of breath, throat
irritation, and wheezing. When
exposures were increased to 4 to 8 hours
in duration, statistically significant lung
function and symptom responses were
reported at O3 concentrations as low as
0.08 ppm and at lower minute
ventilation (i.e., moderate rather than
high level exercise) than the shorter
duration studies.
The most important observations
drawn from studies reviewed in the
1996 Criteria Document were that: (1)
Young healthy adults exposed to O3
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37827
concentrations ≥ 0.080 ppm develop
significant, reversible, transient
decrements in pulmonary function if
minute ventilation or duration of
exposure is increased sufficiently; (2)
children experience similar lung
function responses but report lesser
symptoms from O3 exposure relative to
young adults; (3) O3-induced lung
function responses are decreased in the
elderly relative to young adults; (4)
there is a large degree of intersubject
variability in physiological and
symptomatic responses to O3, but
responses tend to be reproducible
within a given individual over a period
of several months; (5) subjects exposed
repeatedly to O3 for several days show
an attenuation of response upon
successive exposures, but this
attenuation is lost after about a week
without exposure; and (6) acute O3
exposure initiates an inflammatory
response which may persist for at least
18 to 24 hours post exposure.
The development of these respiratory
effects is time-dependent during both
exposure and recovery periods, with
great overlap for development and
disappearance of the effects. In healthy
human subjects exposed to typical
ambient O3 levels near 0.120 ppm, lung
function responses largely resolve
within 4 to 6 hours post-exposure, but
cellular effects persist for about 24
hours. In these healthy subjects, small
residual lung function effects are almost
completely gone within 24 hours, while
in hyperresponsive subjects, recovery
can take as much as 48 hours to return
to baseline. The majority of these
responses are attenuated after repeated
consecutive exposures, but such
attenuation to O3 is lost one week postexposure.
Since 1996, there have been a number
of studies published investigating lung
function and symptomatic responses
that generally support the observations
previously drawn. Recent studies for
acute exposures of 1 to 2 hours and 6
to 8 hours in duration are compiled in
the Staff Paper (Appendix 3C). As
summarized in more detail in the Staff
Paper (section 3.3.1.1), among the more
important of the recent studies that
examined changes in FEV1 in large
numbers of subjects over a range of 1–
2 hours at exposure levels of 0.080 to
0.40 ppm were studies by McDonnell et
al. (1997) and Ultman et al. (2004).
These studies observed considerable
intersubject variability in FEV1
decrements, which was consistent with
findings in the 1996 Criteria Document.
For prolonged exposures (4 to 8
hours) in the range of 0.080 to 0.160
ppm O3 using moderate intermittent
exercise and typically using square-
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wave exposure patterns (i.e., a constant
exposure level during time of exposure),
several pre- and post-1996 studies
(Folinsbee et al., 1988, 1994; Horstman
et al., 1990; Adams, 2002, 2003a, 2006)
have reported statistically significant
lung function responses and increased
symptoms in healthy adults with
increasing duration of exposure, O3
concentration, and minute ventilation.
Studies that employed triangular
exposure patterns (i.e., integrated
exposures that begin at a low level, rise
to a peak, and return to a low level
during the exposure) (Hazucha et al.,
1992; Adams 2003a, 2006) suggest that
the triangular exposure pattern can
potentially lead to greater FEV1
decrements and respiratory symptoms
than square-wave exposures (when the
overall O3 doses are equal). These
results suggest that peak exposures,
reflective of the pattern of ambient O3
concentrations in some locations, are
important in terms of O3 toxicology.
McDonnell (1996) used data from a
series of studies to investigate the
frequency distributions of FEV1
decrements following 6.6 hour
exposures and found statistically
significant but relatively small group
mean decreases in average FEV1
responses (between 5 and 10 percent) at
0.080 ppm O3.12 Notably, about 26
percent of the 60 exposed subjects had
lung function decrements >10 percent,
including about 8 percent of the subjects
that experienced large decrements (>20
percent) (EPA, 2007, Figure 3–1A).
These results (which were not corrected
for exercise in filtered air responses)
demonstrate that while average
responses may be relatively small at the
0.080 ppm exposure level, some
individuals experience more severe
effects that may be clinically significant.
Similar results at the 0.080 ppm
exposure level (for 6.6 hours during
intermittent exercise) were seen in more
recent studies of 30 healthy young
adults by Adams (2002, 2006).13 In these
studies, relatively small but statistically
significant lung function decrements
and respiratory symptom responses
were found (for both square-wave and
triangular exposure patterns), with 17
percent of the subjects (5 of 30)
experiencing ≥ 10 percent FEV1
decrements (comparing pre- and post12 This study and other studies (Folinsbee et al.,
1988; Horstman et al., 1990; and McDonnell et al.,
1991), conducted in EPA’s clinical research facility
in Chapel Hill, NC, measured ozone concentrations
to within +/¥5 percent or +/¥0.004 ppm at the
0.080 ppm exposure level.
13 These studies, conducted at a facility at the
University of California, in Davis, CA, reported O3
concentrations to be accurate within +/¥0.003 ppm
over the range of concentrations included in these
studies.
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exposures) when the results were not
corrected for the effects of exercise
alone in filtered air (EPA, 2007, Figure
3–1B) and with 23 percent of subjects (7
of 30) experiencing such effects when
the results were corrected (EPA, 2007, p.
3–6).14
These studies by Adams (2002, 2006)
are notable in that they are the only
available controlled exposure human
studies that examine respiratory effects
associated with prolonged O3 exposures
at levels below 0.080 ppm, which was
the lowest exposure level that had been
examined in the last review. The Adams
(2006) study investigated a range of
exposure levels (0.000, 0.040, 0.060, and
0.080 ppm O3) using square-wave and
triangular exposure patterns. The study
was designed to examine multiple
comparisons of pulmonary function
(FEV1) and respiratory symptom
responses (total subjective symptoms
(TSS) and pain on deep inspiration
(PDI)) between these various exposure
protocols at six different time points
within the exposure periods. At the
0.060 ppm exposure level, the author
reported no statistically significant
differences for FEV1 decrements nor for
most respiratory symptoms responses;
statistically significant responses were
reported only for TSS for the triangular
exposure pattern toward the end of the
exposure period, with the PDI responses
being noted as following a closely
similar pattern (Adams, 2006, p. 131–
132). EPA’s reanalysis of the data from
the Adams (2006) study, comparing
FEV1 responses pre- and post-exposure
at the 0.060 ppm exposure level, found
small group mean differences from
responses to filtered air that were
statistically significant.15 Notably, these
studies report a small percentage of
subjects experiencing lung function
decrement (≥ 10 percent) at the 0.060
ppm exposure level.16
(ii) Results of Epidemiological and Field
Studies
A relatively large number of field
studies investigating the effects of
14 These distributional results presented in the
Criteria Document and Staff Paper for the Adams
studies are based on study data that were not
included in the publication but were obtained from
the author.
15 Brown, J.S. (2007). EPA Office of Research and
Development memorandum to Ozone NAAQS
Review Docket (OAR–2005–0172); Subject: The
effects of ozone on lung function at 0.06 ppm in
healthy adults, June 14, 2007.
16 Based on study data (Adams, 2006) provided by
the author, 7 percent of the subjects (2 of 30
subjects) experienced notable FEV1 decrements ≥ 10
percent) with the square wave exposure pattern at
the 0.060 ppm exposure level (comparing pre- and
post-exposures) when the results were corrected for
the effects of exercise alone in filtered air (EPA,
2007, p. 3–6).
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ambient O3 concentrations, in
combination with other air pollutants,
on lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms have been
published over the last decade that
support the major findings of the 1996
Criteria Document that lung function
changes, as measured by decrements in
FEV1 or peak expiratory flow (PEF), and
respiratory symptoms in healthy adults
and asthmatic children are closely
correlated to ambient O3 concentrations.
Pre-1996 field studies focused primarily
on children attending summer camps
and found O3-related impacts on
measures of lung function, but not
respiratory symptoms, in healthy
children. The newer studies have
expanded to evaluate O3-related effects
on outdoor workers, athletes, the
elderly, hikers, school children, and
asthmatics. Collectively, these studies
confirm and extend clinical
observations that prolonged (i.e., 6–8
hour) exposure periods, combined with
elevated levels of exertion or exercise,
increase the dose of O3 to the lungs at
a given ambient exposure level and
result in larger lung function effects.
The results of one large study of hikers
(Korrick et al., 1998), which reported
outcome measures stratified by several
factors (e.g., gender, age, smoking status,
presence of asthma) within a population
capable of more than normal exertion,
provide useful insight. In this study,
lung function was measured before and
after hiking, and individual O3
exposures were estimated by averaging
hourly O3 concentrations from ambient
monitors located at the base and
summit. The mean 8-hour average O3
concentration was 0.040 ppm (8-hour
average concentration range of 0.021
ppm to 0.074 ppm O3). Decreased lung
function was associated with O3
exposure, with the greatest effect
estimates reported for the subgroup that
reported having asthma or wheezing,
and for those who hiked for longer
periods of time.
Asthma panel studies conducted both
in the U.S. and in other countries have
reported that decrements in PEF are
associated with routine O3 exposures
among asthmatic and healthy persons.
One large U.S. multicity study, the
National Cooperative Inner City Asthma
Study or NCICAS, (Mortimer et al.,
2002) examined O3-related changes in
PEF in 846 asthmatic children from 8
urban areas and reported that the
incidence of ≥ 10 percent decrements in
morning PEF are associated with
increases in 8-hour average O3 for a 5day cumulative lag, suggesting that O3
exposure may be associated with
clinically significant changes in PEF in
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asthmatic children; however, no
associations were reported with evening
PEF. The mean 8-hour average O3 was
0.048 ppm across the 8 cities. Excluding
days when 8-hour average O3 was
greater than 0.080 ppm (less than 5
percent of days), the associations with
morning PEF remained statistically
significant. Mortimer et al. (2002)
discussed potential biological
mechanisms for delayed effects on
pulmonary function in asthma, which
included increased nonspecific airway
responsiveness secondary to airway
inflammation due to O3 exposure. Two
other panel studies (Romieu et al., 1996,
1997) carried out simultaneously in
northern and southwestern Mexico City
with mildly asthmatic school children
reported statistically significant O3related reductions in PEF, with
variations in effect depending on lag
time and time of day. Mean 1-hour
maximum O3 concentrations in these
locations ranged from 0.190 ppm (SD
80) in northern Mexico City to 0.196
ppm (SD 78) in southwestern Mexico
City. While several studies report
statistically significant associations
between O3 exposure and reduced PEF
in asthmatics, other studies did not,
possibly due to low levels of O3
exposure. EPA concludes that these
studies collectively indicate that O3 may
be associated with short-term declines
in lung function in asthmatic
individuals and that the Mortimer et al.
(2002) study showed statistically
significant effect at concentrations in
the range below 0.080 ppm O3.
Most of the panel studies which have
investigated associations between O3
exposure and respiratory symptoms or
increased use of asthma medication are
focused on asthmatic children. Two
large U.S. studies (Mortimer et al., 2002;
Gent et al., 2003) have reported
associations between ambient O3
concentrations and daily symptoms/
asthma medication use, even after
adjustment for copollutants. Results
were more mixed, meaning that a
greater proportion of studies were not
both positive and statistically
significant, across smaller U.S. and
international studies that focused on
these health endpoints.
The NCICAS reported morning
symptoms in 846 asthmatic children
from 8 U.S. urban areas to be most
strongly associated with a cumulative 1to 4-day lag of O3 concentrations
(Mortimer et al., 2002). The NCICAS
used standard protocols that included
instructing caretakers of the subjects to
record symptoms (including cough,
chest tightness, and wheeze) in the daily
diary by observing or asking the child.
While these associations were not
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statistically significant in several cities,
when the individual data are pooled
from all eight cities, statistically
significant effects were observed for the
incidence of symptoms. The authors
also reported that the odds ratios
remained essentially the same and
statistically significant for the incidence
of morning symptoms when days with
8-hour O3 concentrations above 0.080
ppm were excluded. These days
represented less than 5 percent of days
in the study.
Gent and colleagues (2003) followed
271 asthmatic children under age 12
and living in southern New England for
6 months (April through September)
using a daily symptom diary. They
found that mean 1-hour max O3 and 8hour max O3 concentrations were
0.0586 ppm (SD 19.0) and 0.0513 ppm
(SD 15.5), respectively. The data were
analyzed for two separate groups of
subjects, those who used maintenance
asthma medications during the followup period and those who did not. The
need for regular medication was
considered to be a proxy for more severe
asthma. Not taking any medication on a
regular basis and not needing to use a
bronchodilator would suggest the
presence of very mild asthma.
Statistically significant effects of 1-day
lag O3 were observed on a variety of
respiratory symptoms only in the
medication user group. Both daily 1hour max and 8-hour max O3
concentrations were similarly related to
symptoms such as chest tightness and
shortness of breath. Effects of O3, but
not PM2.5, remained significant and
even increased in magnitude in twopollutant models. Some of the
associations were noted at 1-hour max
O3 levels below 0.060 ppm. In contrast,
no effects were observed among
asthmatics not using maintenance
medication. In terms of person days of
follow-up, this is one of the larger
studies currently available that address
symptom outcomes in relation to O3,
and provides supportive evidence for
effects of O3 independent of PM2.5.
Study limitations include the post-hoc
nature of the population stratification by
medication use. Also, the study did not
account for all of the important
meteorological factors that might
influence these results, such as relative
humidity or dew point.
The multicity study by Mortimer et al.
(2002), which provides an asthmatic
population representative of the United
States, and several single-city studies
indicate a robust association of O3
concentrations with respiratory
symptoms and increased medication use
in asthmatics. While there are a number
of well-conducted, albeit relatively
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smaller, U.S. studies which showed
only limited or a lack of evidence for
symptom increases associated with O3
exposure, these studies had less
statistical power and/or were conducted
in areas with relatively low 1-hour
maximum average O3 levels, in the
range of 0.03 to 0.09 ppm. Even so, the
evidence has continued to expand since
1996 and now is considered to be much
stronger than in the previous review.
The Criteria Document concludes that
the asthma panel studies, as a group,
and the NCICAS in particular, indicate
a positive association between ambient
concentrations and respiratory
symptoms and increased medication use
in asthmatics. The evidence has
continued to expand since 1996 and
now is considered to be much stronger
than in the previous review of the O3
primary standard.
School absenteeism is another
potential surrogate for the health
implications of O3 exposure in children.
The association between school
absenteeism and ambient O3
concentrations was assessed in two
relatively large field studies. Chen et al.
(2000) examined total daily school
absenteeism in about 28,000 elementary
school students in Nevada over a 2-year
period (after adjusting for PM10 and CO
concentrations) and found that ambient
O3 concentrations with a distributed lag
of 14 days were statistically
significantly associated with an
increased rate of school absences.
Gilliland et al. (2001) studied O3-related
absences among about 2,000 4th grade
students in 12 southern California
communities and found statistically
significant associations between 8-hour
average O3 concentrations (with a
distributed lag out to 30 days) and all
absence categories, and particularly for
respiratory causes. Neither PM10 nor
NO2 were associated with any
respiratory or nonrespiratory illnessrelated absences in single pollutant
models. The Criteria Document
concludes that these studies of school
absences suggest that ambient O3
concentrations, accumulated over two to
four weeks, may be associated with
school absenteeism, and particularly
illness-related absences, but further
replication is needed before firm
conclusions can be reached regarding
the effect of O3 on school absences. In
addition, more research is needed to
help shed light on the implications of
variation in the duration of the lag
structures (i.e., 1 day, 5 days, 14 days,
and 30 days) found both across studies
and within data sets by health endpoint
and exposure metric.
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(b) Increased Airway Responsiveness
As discussed in more detail in the
Criteria Document (section 6.8) and
Staff Paper (section 3.3.1.1.2), increased
airway responsiveness, also known as
airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) or
bronchial hyperreactivity, refers to a
condition in which the propensity for
the airways to bronchoconstrict due to
a variety of stimuli (e.g., exposure to
cold air, allergens, or exercise) becomes
augmented. This condition is typically
quantified by measuring the decrement
in pulmonary function after inhalation
exposure to specific (e.g., antigen,
allergen) or nonspecific (e.g.,
methacholine, histamine)
bronchoconstrictor stimuli. Exposure to
O3 causes an increase in airway
responsiveness as indicated by a
reduction in the concentration of
stimuli required to produce a given
reduction in FEV1 or airway obstruction.
Increased airway responsiveness is an
important consequence of exposure to
O3 because its presence means that the
airways are predisposed to narrowing
on inhalation of various stimuli, such as
specific allergens, cold air or SO2.
Statistically significant and clinically
relevant decreases in pulmonary
function have been observed in early
phase allergen response in subjects with
allergic rhinitis after consecutive (4-day)
3-hour exposures to 0.125 ppm O3 (Holz
et al., 2002). Similar increased airway
responsiveness in asthmatics to house
dust mite antigen 16 to 18 hours after
exposure to a single dose of O3 (0.160
ppm for 7.6 hours) was observed. These
observations, based on O3 exposures to
levels much higher than the current
standard level suggest that O3 exposure
may be a clinically important factor that
can exacerbate the response to ambient
bronchoconstrictor substances in
individuals with preexisting allergic
asthma or rhinitis. Further, O3 may have
an immediate impact on the lung
function of asthmatics as well as
contribute to effects that persist for
longer periods.
Kreit et al. (1989) found that O3 can
induce increased airway responsiveness
in asthmatic subjects to O3, who
typically have increased airway
responsiveness at baseline. A
¨
subsequent study (Jorres et al., 1996)
suggested an increase in specific (i.e.,
allergen-induced) airway reactivity in
subjects with allergic asthma, and to a
lesser extent in subjects with allergic
rhinitis after short-term exposure to
higher O3 levels; other studies reported
similar results. According to one study
(Folinsbee and Hazucha, 2000), changes
in airway responsiveness after O3
exposure resolve more slowly than
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changes in FEV1 or respiratory
symptoms. Other studies of repeated
exposure to O3 suggest that changes in
airway responsiveness tend to be
somewhat less affected by attenuation
with consecutive exposures than
changes in FEV1 (EPA, 2006a, p. 6–31).
The Criteria Document (section 6.8)
concludes that O3 exposure is linked
with increased airway responsiveness.
Both human and animal studies indicate
that increased airway responsiveness is
not mechanistically associated with
inflammation, and does not appear to be
strongly associated with initial
decrements in lung function or
increases in symptoms. As a result of
increased airway responsiveness
induced by O3 exposure, human airways
may be more susceptible to a variety of
stimuli, including antigens, chemicals,
and particles. Because asthmatic
subjects typically have increased airway
responsiveness at baseline, enhanced
bronchial response to antigens in
asthmatics raises potential public health
concerns as they could lead to increased
morbidity (e.g., medication usage,
school absences, emergency room visits,
hospital admissions) or to more
persistent alterations in airway
responsiveness (Criteria Document, p.
8–21). As such, increased airway
responsiveness after O3 exposure
represents a plausible link between O3
exposure and increased hospital
admissions.
(c) Respiratory Inflammation and
Increased Permeability
Based on evidence from the previous
review, acute inflammatory responses in
the lung have been observed subsequent
to 6.6 hour O3 exposures to the lowest
tested level—0.080 ppm—in healthy
adults engaged in moderately high
exercise (section 6.9 of the Criteria
Document and section 3.3.1.3 of the
Staff Paper). Some of these prior studies
suggest that inflammatory responses
may be detected in some individuals
following O3 exposures in the absence
of O3-induced pulmonary decrements in
those subjects. These studies also
demonstrate that short-term exposures
to O3 also can cause increased
permeability in the lungs of humans and
experimental animals. Inflammatory
responses and epithelial permeability
have been seen to be independent of
spirometric responses. Not only are the
newer lung inflammation and increased
cellular permeability findings discussed
in the Criteria Document (pp. 8–21 to 8–
24) consistent with the previous review,
but they provide better characterization
of the physiological mechanisms by
which O3 causes these effects.
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Lung inflammation and increased
permeability, which are distinct events
controlled by different mechanisms, are
two commonly observed effects of O3
exposure observed in all of the species
studied. Increased cellular permeability
is a disruption of the lung barrier that
leads to leakage of serum proteins,
influx of polymorphonuclear leukocytes
(neutrophils or PMNs), release of
bioactive mediators, and movement of
compounds from the airspaces into the
blood.
A number of controlled human
exposure studies have analyzed
bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and nasal
lavage (NL)17 fluids and cells for
markers of inflammation and lung
damage (EPA, 2006a, Annex AX6).
Increased lung inflammation is
demonstrated by the presence of
neutrophils found in BAL fluid in the
lungs, which has long been accepted as
a hallmark of inflammation. It is
apparent, however, that inflammation
within airway tissues may persist
beyond the point that inflammatory
cells are found in the BAL fluid. Soluble
mediators of inflammation, such as
cytokines and arachidonic acid
metabolites have been measured in the
BAL fluid of humans exposed to O3. In
addition to their role in inflammation,
many of these compounds have
bronchoconstrictive properties and may
be involved in increased airway
responsiveness following O3 exposure.
An in vitro study of epithelial cells from
nonatopic and atopic asthmatics
exposed to 0.010 to 0.100 ppm O3
showed significantly increased
permeability compared to cells from
normal persons. This indicates a
potentially inherent susceptibility of
cells from asthmatic individuals for O3induced permeability.
In the 1996 Criteria Document,
assessment of controlled human
exposure studies indicated that a single,
acute (1 to 4 hours) O3 exposure
(≥ 0.080 to 0.100 ppm) of subjects
engaged in moderate to heavy exercise
could induce a number of cellular and
biochemical changes suggestive of
pulmonary inflammation and lung
permeability (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–22).
These changes persisted for at least 18
hours. Markers from BAL fluid
following both 2-hour and 4-hour O3
exposures repeated up to 5 days
indicate that there is ongoing cellular
damage irrespective of attenuation of
17 Graham and Koren (1990) compared
inflammatory mediators present in NL and BAL
fluids of humans exposed to 0.4 ppm O3 for 2 hours
and found similar increases in PMNs in both fluids,
suggesting a qualitative correlation between
inflammatory changes in the lower airways (BAL)
and upper respiratory tract (NL).
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some cellular inflammatory responses of
the airways, pulmonary function, and
symptom scores (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–22).
Acute airway inflammation was shown
in Devlin et al. (1990) to occur among
adults exposed to 0.080 ppm O3 for 6.6
hours with exercise. McBride et al.
(1994) reported that asthmatic subjects
were more sensitive than nonasthmatics to upper airway
inflammation for O3 exposures that did
not affect pulmonary function (EPA,
2006a, p. 6–33). However, the public
health significance of these changes is
not entirely clear.
The studies reporting inflammatory
responses and markers of lung injury
have clearly demonstrated that there is
significant variation in response of
subjects exposed, especially to 6.6 hours
O3 exposures at 0.080 and 0.100 ppm.
To provide some perspective on the
public health impact for these effects,
the Staff Paper (section 3.3.1.1.3) notes
that one study (Devlin et al., 1991)
showed that roughly 10 to 50 percent of
the 18 young healthy adult subjects
experienced notable increases (i.e., ≥ 2
fold increase) in most of the
inflammatory and cellular injury
indicators analyzed, associated with 6.6hour exposures at 0.080 ppm. Similar,
although in some cases higher, fractions
of the population of 10 healthy adults
tested saw > 2 fold increases associated
with 6.6-hour exposures to 0.100 ppm.
The authors of this study expressed the
view that ‘‘susceptible subpopulations
such as the very young, elderly, and
people with pulmonary impairment or
disease may be even more affected’’
(Devlin et al., 1991).
Since 1996, a substantial number of
human exposure studies have been
published which have provided
important new information on lung
inflammation and epithelial
permeability. Mudway and Kelly (2004)
examined O3-induced inflammatory
responses and epithelial permeability
with a meta-analysis of 21 controlled
human exposure studies and showed
that an influx in neutrophils and protein
in healthy subjects is associated with
total O3 dose (product of O3
concentration, exposure duration, and
minute ventilation) (EPA, 2006a, p. 6–
34). Results of the analysis suggest that
the time course for inflammatory
responses (including recruitment of
neutrophils and other soluble
mediators) is not clearly established, but
there is evidence that attenuation
profiles for many of these parameters
are different (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–22).
The Criteria Document (chapter 8)
concludes that interaction of O3 with
lipid constituents of epithelial lining
fluid (ELF) and cell membranes and the
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induction of oxidative stress is
implicated in injury and inflammation.
Alterations in the expression of
cytokines, chemokines, and adhesion
molecules, indicative of an ongoing
oxidative stress response, as well as
injury repair and regeneration
processes, have been reported in animal
toxicology and human in vitro studies
evaluating biochemical mediators
implicated in injury and inflammation.
While antioxidants in ELF confer some
protection, O3 reactivity is not
eliminated at environmentally relevant
exposures (Criteria Document, p. 8–24).
Further, antioxidant reactivity with O3
is both species-specific and dosedependent.
(d) Increased Susceptibility to
Respiratory Infection
As discussed in more detail in the
Criteria Document (sections 5.2.2, 6.9.6,
and 8.4.2), short-term exposures to O3
have been shown to impair
physiological defense capabilities in
experimental animals by depressing
alveolar macrophage (AM) functions
and by altering the mucociliary
clearance of inhaled particles and
microbes resulting in increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection.
Short-term O3 exposures also interfere
with the clearance process by
accelerating clearance for low doses and
slowing clearance for high doses.
Animal toxicological studies have
reported that acute O3 exposures
suppress alveolar phagocytosis and
immune system functions. Dysfunction
of host defenses and subsequent
increased susceptibility to bacterial lung
infection in laboratory animals has been
induced by short-term exposures to O3
levels as low as 0.080 ppm.
A single controlled human exposure
study reviewed in the 1996 Criteria
Document reported that exposure to
0.080 to 0.100 ppm O3 for 6.6 hours
(with moderate exercise) induced
decrements in the ability of AMs to
phagocytose microorganisms (EPA,
2006a, p. 8–26). Integrating the recent
animal study results with human
exposure evidence available in the 1996
Criteria Document, the Criteria
Document concludes that available
evidence indicates that short-term O3
exposures have the potential to impair
host defenses in humans, primarily by
interfering with AM function. Any
impairment in AM function may lead to
decreased clearance of microorganisms
or nonviable particles. Compromised
AM functions in asthmatics may
increase their susceptibility to other O3
effects, the effects of particles, and
respiratory infections (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–
26).
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(e) Morphological Effects
The 1996 Criteria Document found
that short-term O3 exposures cause
similar alterations in lung morphology
in all laboratory animal species studied,
including primates. As discussed in the
Staff Paper (section 3.3.1.1.5), cells in
the centriacinar region (CAR) of the lung
(the segment between the last
conducting airway and the gas exchange
region) have been recognized as a
primary target of O3-induced damage
(epithelial cell necrosis and remodeling
of respiratory bronchioles), possibly
because epithelium in this region
receives the greatest dose of O3
delivered to the lower respiratory tract.
Following chronic O3 exposure,
structural changes have been observed
in the CAR, the region typically affected
in most chronic airway diseases of the
human lung (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–24).
Ciliated cells in the nasal cavity and
airways, as well as Type I cells in the
gas-exchange region, are also identified
as targets. While short-term O3
exposures can cause epithelial cell
proliferation and fibrolitic changes in
the CAR, these changes appear to be
transient with recovery time after
exposure, depending on species and O3
dose. The potential impacts of repeated
short-term and chronic morphological
effects of O3 exposure are discussed
below in the section on effects from
long-term exposures. Long-term or
prolonged exposure has been found to
cause chronic lesions similar to early
lesions of respiratory bronchiolitis,
which have the potential to progress to
fibrotic lung disease (Criteria Document,
p. 8–25).
Recent studies continue to show that
short-term and sub-chronic exposures to
O3 cause similar alterations in lung
structure in a variety of experimental
animal species. For example, a series of
new studies that used infant rhesus
monkeys and simulated seasonal
ambient exposure (0.5 ppm 8 hours/day
for 5 days, every 14 days for 11
episodes) reported remodeling in the
distal airways; abnormalities in tracheal
basement membrane; eosinophil
accumulation in conducting airways;
and decrements in airway innervation
(Criteria Document, p. 8–25). Based on
evidence from animal toxicological
studies, short-term and sub-chronic
exposures to O3 can cause
morphological changes in the
respiratory systems, particularly in the
CAR, of a number of laboratory animal
species (EPA, 2006a, section 5.2.4).
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(f) Emergency Department Visits/
Hospital Admissions for Respiratory
Causes
Increased summertime emergency
department visits and hospital
admissions for respiratory causes have
been associated with ambient exposures
to O3. As discussed in section 3.3.1.1.6
of the Staff Paper, numerous studies
conducted in various locations in the
U.S. and Canada consistently have
shown a relationship between ambient
O3 levels and increased incidence of
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions for respiratory
causes, even after controlling for
modifying factors, such as weather and
copollutants. Such associations between
elevated ambient O3 during summer
months and increased hospital
admissions have a plausible biological
basis in the human and animal evidence
of functional, symptomatic, and
physiologic effects discussed above and
in the increased susceptibility to
respiratory infections observed in
laboratory animals.
In the last review of the O3 NAAQS,
the Criteria Document evaluated
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions as possible
outcomes following exposure to O3
(EPA, 2006a, section 7.3). The evidence
was limited for emergency department
visits, but results of several studies
generally indicated that short-term
exposures to O3 were associated with
respiratory emergency department
visits. The strongest and most consistent
evidence, at both lower levels (i.e.,
below 0.120 ppm 1-hour max O3) and at
higher levels (above 0.120 ppm 1-hour
max O3), was found in the group of
studies which investigated
summertime18 daily hospital
admissions for respiratory causes in
different eastern North American cities.
These studies consistently demonstrated
that ambient O3 levels were associated
with increased hospital admissions and
accounted for about one to three excess
respiratory hospital admissions per
million persons with each 0.100 ppm
increase in 1-hour max O3, after
adjustment for possible confounding
effects of temperature and copollutants.
Overall, the 1996 Criteria Document
concluded that there was strong
evidence that ambient O3 exposures can
cause significant exacerbations of
preexisting respiratory disease in the
general public. Excess respiratoryrelated hospital admissions associated
with O3 exposures for the New York
City area (based on Thurston et al.,
18 Discussion of the reasons for focusing on warm
season studies is found in the section 2.A.3.a below.
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1992) were included in the quantitative
risk assessment in the prior review and
are included in the current assessment
along with estimates for respiratoryrelated hospital admissions in
Cleveland, Detroit, and Los Angeles
based on more recent studies (Staff
Paper, chapter 5). Significant
uncertainties and the difficulty of
obtaining reliable baseline incidence
numbers resulted in emergency
department visits not being used in the
quantitative risk assessment in either
the last or the current O3 NAAQS
review.
In the past decade, a number of
studies have examined the temporal
pattern associations between O3
exposures and emergency department
visits for respiratory causes (EPA,
2006a, section 7.3.2). These studies are
summarized in the Criteria Document
(chapter 7 Annex) and some are shown
in Figure 1 (in section II.A.3).
Respiratory causes for emergency
department visits include asthma,
bronchitis, emphysema, pneumonia,
and other upper and lower respiratory
infections, such as influenza, but
asthma visits typically dominate the
daily incidence counts. Most studies
report positive associations. Among
studies with adequate controls for
seasonal patterns, many reported at least
one significant positive association
involving O3.
In reviewing evidence for associations
between emergency department visits
for asthma and short-term O3 exposures,
the Criteria Document notes that in
general, O3 effect estimates from
summer only analyses tended to be
positive and larger compared to results
from cool season or all year analyses
(Figure 7–8, EPA, 2006a, p. 7–68).
Several of the studies reported
significant associations between O3
concentrations and emergency
department visits for respiratory causes,
in particular asthma. However,
inconsistencies were observed which
were at least partially attributable to
differences in model specifications and
analysis approach among various
studies. For example, ambient O3
concentrations, length of the study
period, and statistical methods used to
control confounding by seasonal
patterns and copollutants appear to
affect the observed O3 effect on
emergency department visits. Thus, the
Criteria Document has concluded that
stratified analyses by season generally
supported a positive association
between O3 concentrations and
emergency department visits for asthma
in the warm season.
Hospital admissions studies focus
specifically on unscheduled admissions
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because unscheduled hospital
admissions occur in response to
unanticipated disease exacerbations and
are more likely than scheduled
admissions to be affected by variations
in environmental factors, such as daily
O3 levels. Results of a fairly large
number of these studies published
during the past decade are summarized
in Criteria Document (chapter 7 Annex),
and results of U.S. and Canadian studies
are shown in Figure 1 below (in section
II.A.3). As a group, these hospital
admissions studies tend to be larger
geographically and temporally than the
emergency department visit studies and
provide results that are generally more
consistent. The strongest associations of
respiratory hospital admissions with O3
concentrations were observed using
short lag periods, in particular for a 0day lag (same day exposure) and a 1-day
lag (previous day exposure). Most
studies in the United States and Canada
indicated positive, statistically
significant associations between
ambient O3 concentrations and
respiratory hospital admissions in the
warm season. However, not all studies
found a statistically significant
relationship with O3, possibly because
of very low ambient O3 levels. Analyses
for confounding using multipollutant
regression models suggest that
copollutants generally do not confound
the association between O3 and
respiratory hospitalizations. Ozone
effect estimates were robust to PM
adjustment in all-year and warm-season
only data.
Overall, the Criteria Document
concludes that positive and robust
associations were found between
ambient O3 concentrations and various
respiratory disease hospitalization
outcomes, when focusing particularly
on results of warm-season analyses.
Recent studies also generally indicate a
positive association between O3
concentrations and emergency
department visits for asthma during the
warm season (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–175).
These positive and robust associations
are supported by the human clinical,
animal toxicological, and
epidemiological evidence for lung
function decrements, increased
respiratory symptoms, airway
inflammation, and increased airway
responsiveness. Taken together, the
overall evidence supports a causal
relationship between acute ambient O3
exposures and increased respiratory
morbidity outcomes resulting in
increased emergency department visits
and hospitalizations during the warm
season (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–77).
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ii. Effects on the Respiratory System of
Long-Term O3 Exposures
The 1996 Criteria Document
concluded that there was insufficient
evidence from the limited number of
studies to determine whether long-term
O3 exposures resulted in chronic health
effects at ambient levels observed in the
U.S. However, the aggregate evidence
suggested that O3 exposure, along with
other environmental factors, could be
responsible for health effects in exposed
populations. Animal toxicological
studies carried out in the 1980’s and
1990’s demonstrated that long-term
exposures can result in a variety of
morphological effects, including
permanent changes in the small airways
of the lungs, including remodeling of
the distal airways and CAR and
deposition of collagen, possibly
representing fibrotic changes. These
changes result from the damage and
repair processes that occur with
repeated exposure. Fibrotic changes
were also found to persist after months
of exposure providing a potential
pathophysiologic basis for changes in
airway function observed in children in
some recent epidemiological studies. It
appears that variable seasonal ambient
patterns of exposure may be of greater
concern than continuous daily
exposures.
Several studies published since 1996
have investigated lung function changes
over seasonal time periods (EPA, 2006a,
section 7.5.3). The Criteria Document (p.
7–114) summarizes these studies
collectively indicate that seasonal O3
exposure is associated with smaller
growth-related increases in lung
function in children than they would
have experienced living in areas with
lower O3 levels and that there is some
limited, as yet uncertain, evidence that
seasonal O3 also may affect lung
function in young adults, although the
uncertainty about the role of
copollutants makes it difficult to
attribute the effects to O3 alone.
Lung capacity grows during
childhood and adolescence as body size
increases, reaches a maximum during
the twenties, and then begins to decline
steadily and progressively with age.
Long-term exposure to air pollution has
long been thought to contribute to
slower growth in lung capacity,
diminished maximally attained
capacity, and/or more rapid decline in
lung capacity with age (EPA, 2006a,
section 7.5.4). Toxicological findings
evaluated in the 1996 Criteria Document
demonstrated that repeated daily
exposure of rats to an episodic profile of
O3 caused small, but significant,
decrements in growth-related lung
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function that were consistent with early
indicators of focal fibrogenesis in the
proximal alveolar region, without overt
fibrosis. Because O3 at sufficient
concentrations is a strong respiratory
irritant and has been shown to cause
inflammation and restructuring of the
respiratory airways, it is plausible that
long-term O3 exposures might have a
negative impact on baseline lung
function, particularly during childhood
when these exposures might have longterm risks.
Several epidemiological studies
published since 1996 have examined
the relationship between lung function
development and long-term O3
exposure. The most extensive and
robust study of respiratory effects in
relation to long-term air pollution
exposures among children in the U.S. is
the Children’s Health Study carried out
in 12 communities of southern
California starting in 1993. One analysis
(Peters et al., 1999a) examined the
relationship between long-term O3
exposures and self-reports of respiratory
symptoms and asthma in a cross
sectional analysis and found a limited
relationship between outcomes of
current asthma, bronchitis, cough and
wheeze and a 0.040 ppm increase in 1hour max O3 (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–115).
Another analysis (Peters et al., 1999b)
examined the relationship between lung
function at baseline and levels of air
pollution in the community. They
reported evidence that annual mean O3
levels were associated with decreases in
FVC, FEV1, PEF and forced expiratory
flow (FEF25–75) (the latter two being
statistically significant) among females
but not males. In a separate analysis
(Gauderman et al., 2000) of 4th, 7th, and
10th grade students, a longitudinal
analysis of lung function development
over four years found no association
with O3 exposure. The Children’s
Health Study enrolled a second cohort
of more than 1500 fourth graders in
1996 (Gauderman et al., 2002). While
the strongest associations with negative
lung function growth were observed
with acid vapors in this cohort, children
from communities with higher 4-year
average O3 levels also experienced
smaller increases in various lung
function parameters. The strongest
relationship with O3 was with PEF.
Specifically, children from the leastpolluted community had a small but
statistically significant increase in PEF
as compared to those from the mostpolluted communities. In two-pollutant
models, only 8-hour average O3 and NO2
were significant joint predictors of FEV1
and maximal midexpiratory flow
(MMEF). Although results from the
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37833
second cohort of children are supportive
of a weak association, the definitive 8year follow-up analysis of the first
cohort (Gauderman et al., 2004a)
provides little evidence that long-term
exposure to ambient O3 at current levels
is associated with significant deficits in
the growth rate of lung function in
children. Avol et al. (2001) examined
children who had moved away from
participating communities in southern
California to other states with improved
air quality. They found that a negative,
but not statistically significant,
association was observed between O3
and lung function parameters.
Collectively, the results of these reports
from the children’s health cohorts
provide little evidence to support an
impact of long-term O3 exposures on
lung function development.
Evidence for a significant relationship
between long-term O3 exposures and
decrements in maximally attained lung
function was reported in a nationwide
study of first year Yale students (Kinney
et al., 1998; Galizia and Kinney, 1999)
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–120). Males had much
larger effect estimates than females,
which might reflect higher outdoor
activity levels and correspondingly
higher O3 exposures during childhood.
A similar study of college freshmen at
University of California at Berkeley also
reported significant effects of long-term
¨
O3 exposures on lung function (Kunzli
et al., 1997; Tager et al., 1998). In a
comparison of students whose city of
origin was either Los Angeles or San
Francisco, long-term O3 exposures were
associated with significant changes in
mid- and end-expiratory flow measures,
which could be considered early
indicators for pathologic changes that
might progress to COPD.
There have been a few studies that
investigated associations between longterm O3 exposures and the onset of new
cases of asthma (EPA, 2006a, section
7.5.6). The Adventist Health and Smog
(AHSMOG) study cohort of about 4,000
was drawn from nonsmoking, nonHispanic white adult Seventh Day
Adventists living in California (Greer et
al., 1993; McDonnell et al., 1999).
During the ten-year follow-up in 1987,
a statistically significant increased
relative risk of asthma development was
observed in males, compared to a
nonsignificant relative risk in females
(Greer et al., 1993). In the 15-year
follow-up in 1992, it was reported that
for males, there was a statistically
significant increased relative risk of
developing asthma associated with 8hour average O3 exposures, but there
was no evidence of an association in
females. Consistency of results in the
two studies with different follow-up
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times provides supportive evidence of
the potential for an association between
long-term O3 exposure and asthma
incidence in adult males; however,
representativeness of this cohort to the
general U.S. population may be limited
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–125).
In a similar study (McConnell et al.,
2002) of incident asthma among
children (ages 9 to 16 at enrollment),
annual surveys of 3,535 children
initially without asthma were used to
identify new-onset asthma cases as part
of the Children’s Health Study. Six
high-O3 and six low-O3 communities
were identified where the children
resided. There were 265 children who
reported new-onset asthma during the
follow-up period. Although asthma risk
was no higher for all residents of the six
high-O3 communities versus the six
low-O3 communities, asthma risk was
3.3 times greater for children who
played three or more sports as compared
with children who played no sports
within the high-O3 communities. This
association was absent in the
communities with lower O3
concentrations. No other pollutants
were found to be associated with newonset asthma (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–125).
Playing sports may result in extended
outdoor activity and exposure occurring
during periods when O3 levels are
higher. It should be noted, however, that
the results of the Children’s Health
Study were based on a small number of
new-onset asthma cases among children
who played three or more sports. Future
replication of these findings in other
cohorts would help determine whether
a causal interpretation is appropriate.
In animal toxicology studies, the
progression of morphological effects
reported during and after a chronic
exposure in the range of 0.50 to 1.00
ppm O3 is complex, with inflammation
peaking over the first few days of
exposure, then dropping, then
plateauing, and finally, largely
disappearing (EPA, 2006a, section
5.2.4.4). By contrast, fibrotic changes in
the tissue increase very slowly over
months of exposure, and, after exposure
ceases, the changes sometimes persist or
increase. Epithelial hyperplasia peaks
soon after the inflammatory response
but is usually maintained in both the
nose and lungs with continuous
exposure; it also does not return to preexposure levels after the end of
exposure. Patterns of exposure in this
same concentration range determine
effects, with 18 months of daily
exposure, causing less morphologic
damage than exposures on alternating
months. This is important as
environmental O3 exposure is typically
seasonal. Long-term studies by Plopper
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and colleagues (Evans et al., 2003;
Schelegle et al., 2003; Chen et al., 2003;
Plopper and Fanucchi, 2000)
investigated infant rhesus monkeys
exposed to simulated, seasonal O3 and
demonstrated: (1) Remodeling in the
distal airways, (2) abnormalities in
tracheal basement membrane; (3)
eosinophil accumulation in conducting
airways; and (4) decrements in airway
innervation (EPA, 2006a, p. 5–45).
These findings provide additional
information regarding possible injuryrepair processes occurring with longterm O3 exposures suggesting that these
processes are only partially reversible
and may progress following cessation of
O3 exposure. Further, these processes
may lead to nonreversible structural
damage to lung tissue; however, there is
still too much uncertainty to
characterize the significance of these
findings to human exposure profiles and
effect levels (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–25).
In summary, in the past decade,
important new longitudinal studies
have examined the effect of chronic O3
exposure on respiratory health
outcomes. Limited evidence from recent
long-term morbidity studies have
suggested in some cases that chronic
exposure to O3 may be associated with
seasonal declines in lung function or
reduced lung function development,
increases in inflammation, and
development of asthma in children and
adults. Seasonal decrements or smaller
increases in lung function measures
have been reported in several studies;
however, the extent to which these
changes are transient remains uncertain.
While there is supportive evidence from
animal studies involving effects from
chronic exposures, large uncertainties
still remain as to whether current
ambient levels and exposure patterns
might cause these same effects in
human populations. The Criteria
Document concludes that
epidemiological studies of new asthma
development and longer-term lung
function declines remain inconclusive
at present (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–134).
iii. Effects on the Cardiovascular System
of O3 Exposure
At the time of the 1997 review, the
possibility of O3-induced cardiovascular
effects was largely unrecognized. Since
then, a very limited body of evidence
from animal, controlled human
exposure and epidemiologic studies has
emerged that provides evidence for
some potential plausible mechanisms
for how O3 exposures might exert
cardiovascular system effects, however
much needs to be done to substantiate
these potential mechanisms. Possible
mechanisms may involve O3-induced
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secretions of vasoconstrictive
substances and/or effects on neuronal
reflexes that may result in increased
arterial blood pressure and/or altered
electrophysiologic control of heart rate
or rhythm. Some animal toxicology
studies have shown O3-induced
decreases in heart rate, mean arterial
pressure, and core temperature. One
controlled human exposure study that
evaluated effects of O3 exposure on
cardiovascular health outcomes found
no significant O3-induced differences in
ECG or blood pressure in healthy or
hypertensive subjects but did observe a
significant O3-induced increase the
alveolar-to-arterial PO2 gradient and
heart rate in both groups resulting in an
overall increase in myocardial work and
impairment in pulmonary gas exchange
(Gong et al., 1998). In another controlled
human exposure study, inhalation of a
mixture of PM2.5 and O3 by healthy
subjects increased brachial artery
vasoconstriction and reactivity (Brook et
al., 2002).
The evidence from a few animal
studies also includes potential direct
effects such as O3-induced release from
lung epithelial cells of platelet
activating factor (PAF) that may
contribute to blood clot formation that
would have the potential to increase the
risk of serious cardiovascular outcomes
(e.g., heart attack, stroke, mortality).
Also, interactions of O3 with surfactant
components in epithelial lining fluid of
the lung may result in production of
oxysterols and reactive oxygen species
that may exhibit PAF-like activity
contributing to clotting and also may
exert cytotoxic effects on lung and heart
muscle cells.
Epidemiologic panel and field studies
that examined associations between O3
and various cardiac physiologic
endpoints have yielded limited
evidence suggestive of a potential
association between acute O3 exposure
and altered heart rate variability,
ventricular arrhythmias, and incidence
of heart attacks. A number of
epidemiological studies have also
reported associations between shortterm exposures and hospitalization for
cardiovascular diseases. As shown in
Figure 7–13 of the Criteria Document,
many of the studies reported negative or
inconsistent associations. Some other
studies, especially those that examined
the relationship when O3 exposures
were higher, have found robust positive
associations between O3 and
cardiovascular hospital admissions
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–82). For example, one
study reported a positive association
between O3 and cardiovascular hospital
admissions in Toronto, Canada in a
summer-only analysis (Burnett et al.,
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1997b). The results were robust to
adjustment for various PM indices,
whereas the PM effects diminished
when adjusting for gaseous pollutants.
Other studies stratified their analysis by
temperature, i.e., by warm days versus
cool days. Several analyses using warm
season days consistently produced
positive associations.
The epidemiologic evidence for
cardiovascular morbidity is much
weaker than for respiratory morbidity,
with only one of several U.S./Canadian
studies showing statistically significant
positive associations of cardiovascular
hospitalizations with warm-season O3
concentrations. Most of the available
European and Australian studies, all of
which conducted all-year O3 analyses,
did not find an association between
short-term O3 concentrations and
cardiovascular hospitalizations. Overall,
the currently available evidence is
inconclusive regarding an association
between cardiovascular hospital
admissions and ambient O3 exposure
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–83).
In summary, based on the evidence
from animal toxicology, human
controlled exposure, and epidemiologic
studies, from the Criteria Document
concludes that this generally limited
body of evidence is suggestive that O3
can directly and/or indirectly contribute
to cardiovascular-related morbidity, but
that much needs to be done to more
fully integrate links between ambient O3
exposures and adverse cardiovascular
outcomes (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–77).
b. Mortality
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i. Mortality and Short-Term O3
Exposure
The 1996 Criteria Document
concluded that an association between
daily mortality and O3 concentration for
areas with high O3 levels (e.g., Los
Angeles) was suggested. However, due
to a very limited number of studies
available at that time, there was
insufficient evidence to conclude that
the observed association was likely
causal.
The current Criteria Document
includes results from numerous
epidemiological analyses of the
relationship between O3 and mortality.
Additional single city analyses have
also been conducted since 1996,
however, the most pivotal studies in
EPA’s (and CASAC’s) finding of
increased support for the relationship
between premature mortality and O3 is
in part related to differences in study
design—limiting analyses to warm
seasons, better control for copollutants,
particularly PM, and use of multicity
designs (both time series and meta-
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analytic designs). Key findings are
available from multi-city time-series
studies that report associations between
O3 and mortality. These studies include
analyses using data from 90 U.S. cities
in the National Mortality, Morbidity and
Air Pollution (NMMAPS) study
(Dominici et al., 2003) and from 95 U.S.
communities in an extension to the
NMMAPS analyses (Bell et al., 2004).
The original 90-city NMMAPS
analysis, with data from 1987 to 1994,
was primarily focused on investigating
effects of PM10 on mortality. A
significant association was reported
between mortality and 24-hour average
O3 concentrations in analyses using all
available data as well as in the warm
season only analyses (Dominici et al.,
2003). The estimate using all available
data was about half that for the summeronly data at a lag of 1-day. The extended
NMMAPS analysis included data from
95 U.S. cities and included an
additional 6 years of data, from 1987–
2000 (Bell et al., 2004). Significant
associations were reported between O3
and mortality in analyses using all
available data. The effect estimate for
increased mortality was approximately
0.5 percent per 0.020 ppm change in 24hour average O3 measured on the same
day, and approximately 1.04 percent per
0.020 ppm change in 24-hour average O3
in a 7-day distributed lag model (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–88). In analyses using only
data from the warm season, the results
were not significantly different from the
full-year results. The authors also report
that O3-mortality associations were
robust to adjustment for PM (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–100). Using a subset of the
NMMAPS data set, Huang et al. (2005)
focused on associations between
cardiopulmonary mortality and O3
exposure (24-hour average) during the
summer season only. The authors report
an approximate 1.47 percent increase
per 0.020 ppm change in O3
concentration measured on the same
day and an approximate 2.52 percent
increase per 0.020 ppm change in O3
concentration using a 7-day distributed
lag model. These findings suggest that
the effect of O3 on mortality is
immediate but also persists for several
days.
As discussed below in section
II.A.3.a, confounding by weather,
especially temperature, is complicated
by the fact that higher temperatures are
associated with the increased
photochemical activities that are
important for O3 formation. Using a
case-crossover study design, Schwartz
(2005) assessed associations between
daily maximum concentrations and
mortality, matching case and control
periods by temperature, and using data
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only from the warm season. The
reported effect estimate of
approximately 0.92 percent change in
mortality per 0.040 ppm O3 (1-hour
maximum) was similar to time-series
analysis results with adjustment for
temperature (approximately 0.76
percent per 0.040 ppm O3), suggesting
that associations between O3 and
mortality were robust to the different
adjustment methods for temperature.
An initial publication from APHEA, a
European multi-city study, reported
statistically significant associations
between daily maximum O3
concentrations and mortality in four
cities in a full year analysis (Toulomi et
al., 1997). An extended analysis was
done using data from 23 cities
throughout Europe (Gryparis et al.,
2004). In this report, a positive but not
statistically significant association was
found between mortality and 1-hour
daily maximum O3 in a full year
analysis. Gryparis et al. (2004) noted
that there was a considerable seasonal
difference in the O3 effect on mortality;
thus, the small effect for the all-year
data might be attributable to inadequate
adjustment for confounding by
seasonality. Focusing on analyses using
summer measurements, the authors
report statistically significant
associations with total mortality,
cardiovascular mortality and with
respiratory mortality (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
93, 7–99).
Numerous single-city analyses have
also reported associations between
mortality and short-term O3 exposure,
especially for those analyses using
warm season data. As shown in Figure
7–21 of the Criteria Document, the
results of recent publications show a
pattern of positive, often statistically
significant associations between shortterm O3 exposure and mortality during
the warm season. In considering results
from year-round analyses, there remains
a pattern of positive results but the
findings are less consistent. In most
single-city analyses, effect estimates
were not substantially changed with
adjustment for PM (EPA, 2006a, Figure
7–22).
In addition, several meta-analyses
have been conducted on the
relationship between O3 and mortality.
As described in section 7.4.4 of the
Criteria Document, these analyses
reported fairly consistent and positive
combined effect estimates ranging from
approximately 1.5 to 2.5 percent
increase in mortality for a standardized
change in O3 (EPA, 2006a, Figure 7–20).
Three recent meta-analyses evaluated
potential sources of heterogeneity in O3mortality associations (Bell et al., 2005;
Ito et al., 2005; Levy et al., 2005). The
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Criteria Document (p. 7–96) observes
common findings across all three
analyses, in that all reported that effect
estimates were larger in warm season
analyses, reanalysis of results using
default convergence criteria in
generalized additive models (GAM) did
not change the effect estimates, and
there was no strong evidence of
confounding by PM. Bell et al. (2005)
and Ito et al. (2005) both provided
suggestive evidence of publication bias,
but O3-mortality associations remained
after accounting for that potential bias.
The Criteria Document concludes that
the ‘‘positive O3 effects estimates, along
with the sensitivity analyses in these
three meta-analyses, provide evidence
of a robust association between ambient
O3 and mortality’’ (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–97).
Most of the single-pollutant model
estimates from single-city studies range
from 0.5 to 5 percent excess deaths per
standardized increments. Corresponding
summary estimates in large U.S. multicity studies ranged between 0.5 to 1
percent with some studies noting
heterogeneity across cities and studies
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–110).
Finally, from those studies that
included assessment of associations
with specific causes of death, it appears
that effect estimates for associations
with cardiovascular mortality are larger
than those for total mortality. The metaanalysis by Bell et al. (2005) observed a
slightly larger effect estimate for
cardiovascular mortality compared to
mortality from all causes. The effect
estimate for respiratory mortality was
approximately one-half that of
cardiovascular mortality in the metaanalysis. However, other studies have
observed larger effect estimates for
respiratory mortality compared to
cardiovascular mortality. The apparent
inconsistency regarding the effect size of
O3-related respiratory mortality may be
due to reduced statistical power in this
subcategory of mortality (EPA, 2006a, p.
7–108).
In summary, many single- and multicity studies observed positive
associations of ambient O3
concentrations with total nonaccidental
and cardiopulmonary mortality. The
Criteria Document finds that the results
from U.S. multi-city time-series studies
provide the strongest evidence to date
for O3 effects on acute mortality. Recent
meta-analyses also indicate positive risk
estimates that are unlikely to be
confounded by PM; however, future
work is needed to better understand the
influence of model specifications on the
risk coefficient (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–175).
A meta-analysis that examined specific
causes of mortality found that the
cardiovascular mortality risk estimates
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were higher than those for total
mortality. For cardiovascular mortality,
the Criteria Document (Figure 7–25, p.
7–106) suggests that effect estimates are
consistently positive and more likely to
be larger and statistically significant in
warm season analyses. The findings
regarding the effect size for respiratory
mortality have been less consistent,
possibly because of lower statistical
power in this subcategory of mortality.
The Criteria Document (p. 8–78)
concludes that these findings are highly
suggestive that short-term O3 exposure
directly or indirectly contribute to nonaccidental and cardiopulmonary-related
mortality, but additional research is
needed to more fully establish
underlying mechanisms by which such
effects occur.19
ii. Mortality and Long-Term O3
Exposure
Little evidence was available in the
last review on the potential for
associations between mortality and
long-term exposure to O3. In the
Harvard Six City prospective cohort
analysis, the authors report that
mortality was not associated with longterm exposure to O3 (Dockery et al.,
1993). The authors note that the range
of O3 concentrations across the six cities
was small, which may have limited the
power of the study to detect associations
between mortality and O3 levels (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–127).
As discussed in section 7.5.8 of the
Criteria Document, in this review there
are results available from three
prospective cohort studies: the
American Cancer Society (ACS) study
(Pope et al., 2002), the Adventist Health
and Smog (AHSMOG) study (Beeson et
al., 1998; Abbey et al., 1999), and the
U.S. Veterans Cohort study (Lipfert et
al., 2000, 2003). In addition, a major
reanalysis report includes evaluation of
data from the Harvard Six City cohort
study (Krewski et al., 2000).20 This
19 In commenting on the Criteria Document, the
CASAC Ozone Panel raised questions about the
implications of these time-series results in a policy
context, emphasizing that ‘‘* * * while the timeseries study design is a powerful tool to detect very
small effects that could not be detected using other
designs, it is also a blunt tool’’ (Henderson, 2006b).
They note that ‘‘* * * not only is the interpretation
of these associations complicated by the fact that
the day-to-day variation in concentrations of these
pollutants is, to a varying degree, determined by
meteorology, the pollutants are often part of a large
and highly correlated mix of pollutants, only a very
few of which are measured’’ (Henderson, 2006b).
Even with these uncertainties, the CASAC Ozone
Panel, in its review of the Staff Paper, found ‘‘* * *
premature total non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality for inclusion in the
quantitative risk assessment to be appropriate.’’
(Henderson, 2006b).
20 This reanalysis report and the original
prospective cohort study findings are discussed in
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reanalysis also includes additional
evaluation of data from the initial ACS
cohort study report that had only
reported results of associations between
mortality and long-term exposure to fine
particles and sulfates (Pope et al., 1995).
This reanalysis was discussed in the
Staff Paper (section 3.3.2.2) but not in
the Criteria Document.
In this reanalysis of data from the
previous Harvard Six City prospective
cohort study, the investigators
replicated and validated the findings of
the original studies, and the report
included additional quantitative results
beyond those available in the original
report (Krewski et al., 2000). In the
reanalysis of data from the Harvard Six
Cities study, the effect estimate for the
association between long-term O3
concentrations and mortality was
negative and nearly statistically
significant (relative risk = 0.87, 95
percent CI: 0.76, 1.00).
The ACS study is based on health
data from a large prospective cohort of
approximately 500,000 adults and air
quality data from about 150 U.S. cities.
The initial report (Pope et al., 1995)
focused on associations with fine
particles and sulfates, for which
significant associations had been
reported in the earlier Harvard Six
Cities study (Dockery et al., 1993). As
part of the major reanalysis of these
data, results for associations with other
air pollutants were also reported, and
the authors report that no significant
associations were found between O3 and
all-cause mortality. However, a
significant association was reported for
cardiopulmonary mortality in the warm
season (Krewski et al., 2000). The ACS
II study (Pope et al., 2002) reported
results of associations with an extended
data base; the mortality records for the
cohort had been updated to include 16
years of follow-up (compared with 8
years in the first report) and more recent
air quality data were included in the
analyses. Similar to the earlier
reanalysis, a marginally significant
association was observed between longterm exposure to O3 and
cardiopulmonary mortality in the warm
season. No other associations with
mortality were observed in both the fullyear and warm season analyses.
The Adventist Health and Smog
(AHSMOG) cohort includes about 6,000
adults living in California. In two
studies from this cohort, a significant
association has been reported between
long-term O3 exposure and increased
risk of lung cancer mortality among
males only (Beeson et al., 1998; Abbey
more detail in section 8.2.3 of the Air Quality
Criteria for Particulate Matter (EPA, 2004).
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et al., 1999). No significant associations
were reported between long-term O3
exposure and mortality from all causes
or cardiopulmonary causes. Due to the
small numbers of lung cancer deaths (12
for males, 18 for females) and the
precision of the effect estimate (i.e., the
wide confidence intervals), the Criteria
Document discussed concerns about the
plausibility of the reported association
with lung cancer (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
130).
The U.S. Veterans Cohort study
(Lipfert et al., 2000, 2003) of
approximately 50,000 middle-aged
males diagnosed with hypertension,
reported some positive associations
between mortality and peak O3
exposures (95th percentile level for
several years of data). The study
included numerous analyses using
subsets of exposure and mortality
follow-up periods which spanned the
years 1960 to 1996. In the results of
analyses using deaths and O3 exposure
estimates concurrently across the study
period, there were positive, statistically
significant associations between peak O3
and mortality (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–129).
Overall, the Criteria Document
concludes that consistent associations
have not been reported between longterm O3 exposure and all-cause,
cardiopulmonary or lung cancer
mortality (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–130).
c. Role of Ground-Level O3 in Solar
Radiation-Related Human Health Effects
Beyond the direct health effects
attributable to inhalation exposure to O3
in the ambient air discussed above, the
Criteria Document also assesses
potential indirect effects related to the
presence of O3 in the ambient air by
considering the role of ground-level O3
in mediating human health effects that
may be directly attributable to exposure
to solar ultraviolet radiation (UV–B).
The Criteria Document (chapter 10)
focuses this assessment on three key
factors, including those factors that
govern (1) UV–B radiation flux at the
earth’s surface, (2) human exposure to
UV–B radiation, and (3) human health
effects due to UV–B radiation. In so
doing, the Criteria Document provides a
thorough analysis of the current
understanding of the relationship
between reducing ground-level O3
concentrations and the potential impact
these reductions might have on
increasing UV–B surface fluxes and
indirectly contributing to UV–B related
health effects.
There are many factors that influence
UV–B radiation penetration to the
earth’s surface, including latitude,
altitude, cloud cover, surface albedo,
PM concentration and composition, and
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gas phase pollution. Of these, only
latitude and altitude can be defined
with small uncertainty in any effort to
assess the changes in UV–B flux that
may be attributable to any changes in
tropospheric O3 as a result of any
revision to the O3 NAAQS. Such an
assessment of UV–B related health
effects would also need to take into
account human habits, such as outdoor
activities (including age- and
occupation-related exposure patterns),
dress and skin care to adequately
estimate UV–B exposure levels.
However, little is known about the
impact of these factors on individual
exposure to UV–B.
Moreover, detailed information does
not exist regarding other factors that are
relevant to assessing changes in disease
incidence, including: Type (e.g., peak or
cumulative) and time period (e.g.,
childhood, lifetime, current) of
exposures related to various adverse
health outcomes (e.g., damage to the
skin, including skin cancer; damage to
the eye, such as cataracts; and immune
system suppression); wavelength
dependency of biological responses; and
interindividual variability in UV–B
resistance to such health outcomes.
Beyond these well recognized adverse
health effects associated with various
wavelengths of UV radiation, the
Criteria Document (section 10.2.3.6) also
discusses protective effects of UV–B
radiation. Recent reports indicate the
necessity of UV–B in producing vitamin
D, and that vitamin D deficiency can
cause metabolic bone disease among
children and adults, and may also
increase the risk of many common
chronic diseases (e.g., type I diabetes
and rheumatoid arthritis) as well as the
risk of various types of cancers. Thus,
the Criteria Document concludes that
any assessment that attempts to quantify
the consequences of increased UV–B
exposure on humans due to reduced
ground-level O3 must include
consideration of both negative and
positive effects. However, as with other
impacts of UV–B on human health, this
beneficial effect of UV–B radiation has
not been studied in sufficient detail to
allow for a credible health benefits or
risk assessment. In conclusion, the
effect of changes in surface-level O3
concentrations on UV-induced health
outcomes cannot yet be critically
assessed within reasonable uncertainty
(Criteria Document, p. 10–36).
The Agency last considered indirect
effects of O3 in the ambient air in its
2003 final response to a remand of the
Agency’s 1997 decision to revise the O3
NAAQS. In so doing, based on the
available information in the last review,
the Administrator determined that the
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information linking (a) Changes in
patterns of ground-level O3
concentrations likely to occur as a result
of programs implemented to attain the
1997 O3 NAAQS to (b) changes in
relevant exposures to UV–B radiation of
concern to public health was too
uncertain at that time to warrant any
relaxation in the level of public health
protection previously determined to be
requisite to protect against the
demonstrated direct adverse respiratory
effects of exposure to O3 in the ambient
air (68 FR 614). At that time, the more
recent information on protective effects
of UV–B radiation was not available,
such that only adverse UV–B-related
effects could be considered. Taking into
consideration the more recent
information available in this review, the
Criteria Document and Staff Paper
conclude that the effect of changes in
ground-level O3 concentrations, likely to
occur as a result of revising the O3
NAAQS, on UV-induced health
outcomes, including whether these
changes would ultimately result in
increased or decreased incidence of
UV–B-related diseases, cannot yet be
critically assessed. EPA requests
comment on available studies or data
that would be relevant to conducting a
critical assessment with reasonable
certainty of UV-induced health
outcomes and how evidence of UVinduced health outcomes might inform
the Agency’s review of the primary O3
standard.
3. Interpretation and Integration of
Health Evidence
As discussed below, in assessing the
new health evidence, the Criteria
Document integrates findings from
experimental (e.g., toxicological,
dosimetric and controlled human
exposure) and epidemiological studies,
to make judgments about the extent to
which causal inferences can be made
about observed associations between
health endpoints and exposure to O3. In
evaluating the evidence from
epidemiological studies, the EPA
focuses on well-recognized criteria,
including: The strength of reported
associations, including the magnitude
and precision of reported effect
estimates and their statistical
significance; the robustness of reported
associations, or stability in the effect
estimates after considering factors such
as alternative models and model
specification, potential confounding by
co-pollutants, and issues related to the
consequences of exposure measurement
error; potential aggregation bias in
pooling data; and the consistency of the
effects associations as observed by
looking across results of multiple- and
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single-city studies conducted by
different investigators in different places
and times. Consideration is also given to
evaluating concentration-response
relationships observed in
epidemiological studies to inform
judgments about the potential for
threshold levels for O3-related effects.
Integrating more broadly across
epidemiological and experimental
evidence, the Criteria Document also
focuses on the coherence and
plausibility of observed O3-related
health effects to reach judgments about
the extent to which causal inferences
can be made about observed
associations between health endpoints
and exposure to O3 in the ambient air.
a. Assessment of Evidence From
Epidemiological Studies
Key elements of the evaluation of
epidemiological studies are briefly
summarized below.
(1) The strength of associations most
directly refers to the magnitude of the
reported relative risk estimates. Taking
a broader view, the Criteria Document
draws upon the criteria summarized in
a recent report from the U.S. Surgeon
General, which define strength of an
association as ‘‘the magnitude of the
association and its statistical strength’’
which includes assessment of both
effect estimate size and precision, which
is related to the statistical power of the
study (CDC, 2004). In general, when
associations are strong in terms of
yielding large relative risk estimates, it
is less likely that the association could
be completely accounted for by a
potential confounder or some other
source of bias, whereas with
associations that yield small relative
risk estimates it is especially important
to consider potential confounding and
other factors in assessing causality.
Effect estimates between O3 and some of
the health outcomes are generally small
in size and could thus be characterized
as weak. For example, effect estimates
for associations with mortality generally
range from 0.5 to 5 percent increases per
0.040 ppm increase in 1-hour maximum
O3 or equivalent, whereas associations
for hospitalization range up to 50
percent increases per standardized O3
increment. However, the Criteria
Document notes that there are large
multicity studies that find small
associations between short-term O3
exposure and mortality or morbidity
and have done so with great precision
due to the statistical power of the
studies (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–40). That is,
the power of the studies allows the
authors to reliably distinguish even
weak relationships from the null
hypothesis with statistical confidence.
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(2) In evaluating the robustness of
associations, the Criteria Document
(sections 7.1.3 and 8.4.4.3) and Staff
Paper (section 3.4.2) have primarily
considered the impact of exposure error,
potential confounding by copollutants,
and alternative models and model
specifications.
In time-series and panel studies, the
temporal (e.g., daily or hourly) changes
in ambient O3 concentrations measured
at centrally-located ambient monitoring
stations are generally used to represent
a community’s exposure to ambient O3.
In prospective cohort or cross-sectional
studies, air quality data averaged over a
period of months to years are used as
indicators of a community’s long-term
exposure to ambient O3 and other
pollutants. In both types of analyses,
exposure error is an important
consideration, as actual exposures to
individuals in the population will vary
across the community.
Ozone concentrations measured at
central ambient monitoring sites may
explain, at least partially, the variance
in individual exposures to ambient O3;
however, this relationship is influenced
by various factors related to building
ventilation practices and personal
behaviors. Further, the pattern of
exposure misclassification error and the
influence of confounders may differ
across the outcomes of interest as well
as in susceptible populations. As
discussed in the Criteria Document
(section 3.9), only a limited number of
studies have examined the relationship
between ambient O3 concentrations and
personal exposures to ambient O3. One
of the strongest predictors of the
relationship between ambient
concentrations and personal exposures
appears to be time spent outdoors. The
strongest relationships were observed in
outdoor workers (Brauer and Brook,
1995, 1997; O’Neill et al., 2004).
Statistically significant correlations
between ambient concentrations and
personal exposures were also observed
for children, who likely spend more
time outdoors in the warm season (Linn
et al., 1996; Xue et al., 2005). There is
some concern about the extent to which
ambient concentrations are
representative of personal O3 exposures
of another particularly susceptible
group of individuals, the debilitated
elderly, since those who suffer from
chronic cardiovascular or respiratory
conditions may tend to protect
themselves more than healthy
individuals from environmental threats
by reducing their exposure to both O3
and its confounders, such as high
temperature and PM. Studies by Sarnat
et al. (2001, 2005) that included this
susceptible group reported mixed
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results for associations between ambient
O3 concentrations and personal
exposures to O3. Collectively, these
studies observed that the daily averaged
personal O3 exposures tend to be well
correlated with ambient O3
concentrations despite the substantial
variability that existed among the
personal measurements. These studies
provide supportive evidence that
ambient O3 concentrations from central
monitors may serve as valid surrogate
measures for mean personal exposures
experienced by the population, which is
of most relevance for time-series
studies. A better understanding of the
relationship between ambient
concentrations and personal exposures,
as well as of the other factors that affect
relationship will improve the
interpretation of concentrationpopulation health response associations
observed.
The Criteria Document (section
7.1.3.1) also discusses the potential
influence of exposure error on
epidemiologic study results. Zeger et al.
(2000) outlined the components to
exposure measurement error, finding
that ambient exposure can be assumed
to be the product of the ambient
concentration and an attenuation factor
(i.e., building filter) and that panel
studies and time-series studies that use
ambient concentrations instead of
personal exposure measurements will
estimate a health risk that is attenuated
by that factor. Navidi et al. (1999) used
data from a children’s cohort study to
compare effect estimates from a
simulated ‘‘true’’ exposure level to
results of analyses from O3 exposures
determined by several methods, finding
that O3 exposures based on the use of
ambient monitoring data overestimate
the individual’s O3 exposure and thus
generally result in O3 effect estimates
that are biased downward (EPA, 2006a,
p. 7–8). Similarly, in a reanalysis of a
study by Burnett et al. (1994) on the
acute respiratory effects of ambient air
pollution, Zidek et al. (1998) reported
that accounting for measurement error,
as well as making a few additional
changes to the analysis, resulted in
qualitatively similar conclusions, but
the effects estimates were considerably
larger in magnitude (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
8). A simulation study by Sheppard et
al. (2005) also considered attenuation of
the risk based on personal behavior,
their microenvironment, and the
qualities of the pollutant in time-series
studies. Of particular interest is their
finding that risk estimates were not
further attenuated in time-series studies
even when the correlations between
personal exposures and ambient
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concentrations were weak. In addition
to overestimation of exposure and the
resulting underestimation of effects, the
use of ambient O3 concentrations may
obscure the presence of thresholds in
epidemiologic studies (EPA, 2006a, p.
7–9).
As discussed in the Criteria Document
(section 3.9), using ambient
concentrations to determine exposure
generally overestimates true personal O3
exposures by approximately 2- to 4-fold
in available studies, resulting in
attenuated risk estimates. The
implication is that the effects being
estimated occur at fairly low exposures
and the potency of O3 is greater than
these effects estimates indicate. As very
few studies evaluating O3 health effects
with personal O3 exposure
measurements exist in the literature,
effect estimates determined from
ambient O3 concentrations must be
evaluated and used with caution to
assess the health risks of O3. In the
absence of available data on personal O3
exposure, the use of routinely
monitored ambient O3 concentrations as
a surrogate for personal exposures is not
generally expected to change the
principal conclusions from O3
epidemiologic studies. Therefore,
population health risk estimates derived
using ambient O3 levels from currently
available observational studies, with
appropriate caveats about personal
exposure considerations, remain useful.
The Criteria Document recommends
caution in the quantitative use of effect
estimates calculated using ambient O3
concentrations as they may lead to
underestimation of the potency of O3.
However, the Staff Paper observes that
the use of these risk estimates for
comparing relative risk reductions
between alternative ambient O3
standards considered in the risk
assessment (discussed below in section
II.B.2) is less likely to suffer from this
concern.
Confounding occurs when a health
effect that is caused by one risk factor
is attributed to another variable that is
correlated with the causal risk factor;
epidemiological analyses attempt to
adjust or control for potential
confounders. Copollutants (e.g., PM,
CO, SO2 and NO2) can meet the criteria
for potential confounding in O3-health
associations if they are potential risk
factors for the health effect under study
and are correlated with O3. Effect
modifiers include variables that may
influence the health response to the
pollutant exposure (e.g., co-pollutants,
individual susceptibility, smoking or
age). Both are important considerations
for evaluating effects in a mixture of
pollutants, but for confounding, the
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emphasis is on controlling or adjusting
for potential confounders in estimating
the effects of one pollutant, while the
emphasis for effect modification is on
identifying and assessing the effects for
different modifiers. The Criteria
Document (p. 7–148) observes that O3 is
generally not highly correlated with
other criteria pollutants (e.g., PM10, CO,
SO2 and NO2), but may be more highly
correlated with secondary fine particles,
especially during the summer months,
and that the degree of correlation
between O3 and other pollutants may
vary across seasons. For example,
positive associations are observed
between O3 and pollutants such as fine
particles during the warmer months, but
negative correlations may be observed
during the cooler months (EPA, 2006a,
p. 7–17). Thus, the Criteria Document
(section 7.6.4) pays particular attention
to the results of season-specific analyses
and studies that assess effects of PM in
potential confounding of O3-health
relationships. The Criteria Document
also discussed the limitations of
commonly used multipollutant models
that include the difficulty in
interpreting results where the
copollutants are highly colinear, or
where correlations between pollutants
change by season (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
150). This is particularly the situation
where O3 and a copollutant, such as
sulfates, are formed under the same
atmospheric condition; in such cases
multipollutant models would produce
unstable and possibly misleading results
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–152).
For mortality, the results from
numerous multi-city and single-city
studies indicate that O3-mortality
associations do not appear to be
substantially changed in multipollutant
models including PM10 or PM2.5 (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–101; Figure 7–22). Focusing
on results of warm season analyses,
effect estimates for O3-mortality
associations are fairly robust to
adjustment for PM in multipollutant
models (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–102; Figure 7–
23). The Criteria Document concludes
that in the few multipollutant analyses
conducted for these endpoints,
copollutants generally do not confound
the relationship between O3 and
respiratory hospitalization (EPA, 2006a,
p. 7–79 to 7–80; Figure 7–12).
Multipollutant models were not used as
commonly in studies of relationships
between respiratory symptoms or lung
function with O3, but the Criteria
Document reports that results of
available analyses indicate that such
associations generally were robust to
adjustment for PM2.5 (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
154). For example, in a large multi-city
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study of asthmatic children (Mortimer et
al., 2002), the O3 effect was attenuated,
but there was still a positive association;
in Gent et al. (2003), effects of O3, but
not PM2.5, remained statistically
significant and even increased in
magnitude in two-pollutant models
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–53). Considering this
body of studies, the Criteria Document
concludes: ‘‘Multipollultant regression
analyses indicated that O3 risk
estimates, in general, were not sensitive
to the inclusion of copollutants,
including PM2.5 and sulfate. These
results suggest that the effects of O3 on
respiratory health outcomes appear to
be robust and independent of the effects
of other copollutants (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
154).’’
The Criteria Document observes that
another challenge of time-series
epidemiological analysis is assessing the
relationship between O3 and health
outcomes while avoiding bias due to
confounding by other time-varying
factors, particularly seasonal trends and
weather variables (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–14).
These variables are of particular interest
because O3 concentrations have a wellcharacterized seasonal pattern and are
also highly correlated with changes in
temperature, such that it can be difficult
to distinguish whether effects are
associated with O3 or with seasonal or
weather variables in statistical analyses.
The Criteria Document (section
7.1.3.4) discusses statistical modeling
approaches that have been used to
adjust for time-varying factors,
highlighting a series of analyses that
were done in a Health Effects Institutefunded reanalysis of numerous timeseries studies. While the focus of these
reanalyses was on associations with PM,
a number of investigators also examined
the sensitivity of O3 coefficients to the
extent of adjustment for temporal trends
and weather factors. In addition, several
recent studies, including U.S. multi-city
studies (Bell et al., 2005; Huang et al.,
2005; Schwartz et al., 2005) and a metaanalysis study (Ito et al., 2005),
evaluated the effect of model
specification on O3-mortality
associations. As discussed in the
Criteria Document (section 7.6.3.1),
these studies generally report that
associations reported with O3 are not
substantially changed with alternative
modeling strategies for adjusting for
temporal trends and meteorologic
effects. In the meta-analysis by Ito et al.
(2005), a separate multi-city analysis
was presented that found that
alternative adjustments for weather
resulted in up to 2-fold difference in the
O3 effect estimate. Significant
confounding can occur when strong
seasonal cycles are present, suggesting
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that season-specific results are more
generally robust than year-round results
in such cases. A number of
epidemiological studies have conducted
season-specific analyses, and have
generally reported stronger and more
precise effect estimates for O3
associations in the warm season than in
analyses conducted in the cool seasons
or over the full year.
(3) Consistency refers to the persistent
finding of an association between
exposure and outcome in multiple
studies of adequate power in different
persons, places, circumstances and
times (CDC, 2004). In considering
results from multi-city studies and
single-city studies in different areas, the
Criteria Document (p. 8–41) observes
general consistency in effects of shortterm O3 exposure on mortality,
respiratory hospitalization and other
respiratory health outcomes. The
variations in effects that are observed
may be attributable to differences in
relative personal exposure to O3, as well
as varying concentrations and
composition of copollutants present in
different regions. Thus, the Criteria
Document (p. 8–41) concludes that
‘‘consideration of consistency or
heterogeneity of effects is appropriately
understood as an evaluation of the
similarity or general concordance of
results, rather than an expectation of
finding quantitative results with a very
narrow range.’’
(4) The Staff Paper recognizes that it
is likely that there are biological
thresholds for different health effects in
individuals or groups of individuals
with similar innate characteristics and
health status. For O3 exposure,
individual thresholds would
presumably vary substantially from
person to person due to individual
differences in genetic susceptibility,
pre-existing disease conditions and
possibly individual risk factors such as
diet or exercise levels (and could even
vary from one time to another for a
given person). Thus, it would be
difficult to detect a distinct threshold at
the population level below which no
individual would experience a given
effect, especially if some members of a
population are unusually sensitive even
down to very low concentrations (EPA,
2004, p. 9–43, 9–44).
Some studies have tested associations
between O3 and health outcomes after
removal of days with higher O3 levels
from the data set; such analyses do not
necessarily indicate the presence or
absence of a threshold, but provide
some information on whether the
relationship is found using only lowerconcentration data. For example, using
data from 95 U.S. cities, Bell et al.
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(2004) found that the effect estimate for
an association between short-term O3
exposure and mortality was little
changed when days exceeding 0.060
ppm (24-hour average) were excluded in
the analysis. Bell et al. (2006) found no
difference in estimated effect even when
all days with 24-hour O3 concentrations
<0.020 ppm were excluded (EPA, 2006a,
p. 8–43). Using data from 8 U.S. cities,
Mortimer and colleagues (2002) also
reported that associations between O3
and both lung function and respiratory
symptoms remained statistically
significant and of the same or greater
magnitude in effect size when
concentrations greater than 0.080 ppm
(8-hour average) were excluded (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–46). Several single-city
studies also report similar findings of
associations that remain or are increased
in magnitude and statistical significance
when data at the upper end of the
concentration range are removed (EPA,
2006a, section 7.6.5).
Other time-series epidemiological
studies have used statistical modeling
approaches to evaluate whether
thresholds exist in associations between
short-term O3 exposure and mortality.
As discussed in section 7.6.5 of the
Criteria Document, one European multicity study included evaluation of the
shape of the concentration-response
curve, and observed no deviation from
a linear function across the range of O3
measurements from the study (Gryparis
et al., 2004; EPA, 2006a, p. 7–154).
Several single-city studies also observed
a monotonic increase in associations
between O3 and morbidity that suggest
that no population threshold exists
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–159).
On the other hand, a study in Korea
used several different modeling
approaches and reported that a
threshold model provided the best fit for
the data. The results suggested a
potential threshold level of about 0.045
ppm (1-hour maximum concentration;
<0.035 ppm, 8-hour average) for an
association between mortality and shortterm O3 exposure during the summer
months (Kim et al., 2004; EPA, 2006a,
p. 8–43). The authors reported larger
effect estimates for the association for
data above the potential threshold level,
suggesting that an O3-mortality
association might be underestimated in
the non-threshold model. A threshold
analysis recently reported by Bell et al.
(2006) for 98 U.S. communities,
including the same 95 communities in
Bell et al. (2004), indicated that if a
population threshold existed for
mortality, it would likely fall below a
24-hour average O3 concentration of
0.015 ppm (<0.025 ppm, 8-hour
average). In addition, Burnett and
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colleagues (1997a,b) plotted the
relationships between air pollutant
concentrations and both respiratory and
cardiovascular hospitalization, and it
appears in these results that the
associations with O3 are found in the
concentration range above about 0.030
ppm (1-hour maximum; <0.025 ppm, 8hour average). Vedal and colleagues
(2003) reported a significant association
between O3 and mortality in British
Columbia where O3 concentrations were
quite low (mean 1-hour maximum
concentration of 0.0273 ppm). The
authors did not specifically test for
threshold levels, but the fact that the
association was found in an area with
such low O3 concentrations suggests
that any potential threshold level would
be quite low in this data set.
In summary, the Criteria Document
finds that, taken together, the available
evidence from clinical and
epidemiological studies suggests that no
clear conclusion can now be reached
with regard to possible threshold levels
for O3-related effects (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–
44). Thus, the available epidemiological
evidence neither supports nor refutes
the existence of thresholds at the
population level for effects such as
increased hospital admissions and
premature mortality. There are
limitations in epidemiological studies
that make discerning thresholds in
populations difficult, including low
data density in the lower concentration
ranges, the possible influence of
exposure measurement error, and
interindividual differences in
susceptibility to O3-related effects in
populations. There is the possibility that
thresholds for individuals may exist in
reported associations at fairly low levels
within the range of air quality observed
in the studies but not be detectable as
population thresholds in
epidemiological analyses.
b. Biological Plausibility and Coherence
of Evidence
The body of epidemiological studies
discussed in the Staff Paper emphasizes
the role of O3 in association with a
variety of adverse respiratory and
cardiovascular effects. While
recognizing a variety of plausible
mechanisms, there exists a general
consensus suggesting that O3 could,
either directly or through initiation,
interfere with basic cellular oxidation
processes responsible for inflammation,
reduced antioxidant capacity,
atherosclerosis and other effects.
Reasoning that O3 influences cellular
chemistry through basic oxidative
properties (as opposed to a unique
chemical interaction), other reactive
oxidizing species (ROS) in the
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atmosphere acting either independently
or in combination with O3 may also
contribute to a number of adverse
respiratory and cardiovascular health
effects. Consequently, the role of O3
should be considered more broadly as
O3 behaves as a generator of numerous
oxidative species in the atmosphere.
In considering the biological
plausibility of reported O3-related
effects, the Staff Paper (section 3.4.6)
considers this broader question of
health effects of pollutant mixtures
containing O3. The potential for O3related enhancements of PM formation,
particle uptake, and exacerbation of PMinduced cardiovascular effects
underscores the importance of
considering contributions of O3
interactions with other often cooccurring air pollutants to health effects
due to O3-containing pollutant mixes.
The Staff Paper summarizes some
examples of important pollutant
mixture effects from studies that
evaluate interactions of O3 with other
co-occurring pollutants, as discussed in
chapters 4, 5, and 6 of the Criteria
Document.
All of the types of interactive effects
of O3 with other co-occurring gaseous
and nongaseous viable and nonviable
PM components of ambient air mixes
noted above argue that O3 acts not only
alone but that O3 also is a surrogate
indicator for air pollution mixes which
may enhance the risk of adverse effects
due to O3 acting in combination with
other pollutants. Viewed from this
perspective, those epidemiologic
findings of morbidity and mortality
associations, with ambient O3
concentrations extending to quite low
levels in many cases, become more
understandable and plausible.
The Criteria Document integrates
epidemiological studies with
mechanistic information from
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controlled human exposure studies and
animal toxicological studies to draw
conclusions regarding the coherence of
evidence and biological plausibility of
O3-related health effects to reach
judgments about the causal nature of
observed associations. As summarized
below, coherence and biological
plausibility are discussed for each of the
following types of O3-related effects:
short-term effects on the respiratory
system, effects on the cardiovascular
system, effects related to long-term O3
exposure, and short-term mortalityrelated health endpoints.
i. Coherence and Plausibility of ShortTerm Effects on the Respiratory System
Acute respiratory morbidity effects
that have been associated with shortterm exposure to O3 include such health
endpoints as decrements in lung
function, increased airway
responsiveness, airway inflammation,
increased permeability related to
epithelial injury, immune system
effects, emergency department visits for
respiratory diseases, and hospitalization
due to respiratory illness.
Recent epidemiological studies have
supported evidence available in the
previous O3 NAAQS review on
associations between ambient O3
exposure and decline in lung function
for children. The Criteria Document (p.
8–34) concludes that exposure to
ambient O3 has a significant effect on
lung function and is associated with
increased respiratory symptoms and
medication use, particularly in
asthmatics. Short-term exposure to O3
has also been associated with more
severe morbidity endpoints, such as
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions for respiratory
cases, including specific respiratory
illness (e.g., asthma) (EPA, 2006a,
sections 7.3.2 and 7.3.3). In addition, a
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few epidemiological studies have
reported positive associations between
short-term O3 exposure and respiratory
mortality, though the associations are
not generally statistically significant
(EPA, 2006a, p. 7–108).
Considering the evidence from
epidemiological studies, the results
described above provide evidence for
coherence in O3-related effects on the
respiratory system. Effect estimates from
U.S. and Canadian studies are shown in
Figure 1, where it can be seen that
mostly positive associations have been
reported with respiratory effects ranging
from respiratory symptoms, such as
cough or wheeze, to hospitalization for
various respiratory diseases, and there is
suggestive evidence for associations
with respiratory mortality. Many of the
reported associations are statistically
significant, particularly in the warm
season. In Figure 1, the central effect
estimate is indicated by a square for
each result, with the vertical bar
representing the 95 percent confidence
interval around the estimate. In the
discussions that follow, an individual
study result is considered to be
statistically significant if the 95 percent
confidence interval does not include
zero.21 Positive effect estimates indicate
increases in the health outcome with O3
exposure. In considering these results as
a whole, it is important to consider not
only whether statistical significance at
the 95 percent confidence level is
reported in individual studies but also
the general pattern of results, focusing
in particular on studies with greater
statistical power that report relatively
more precise results.
BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
21 Results for studies of respiratory symptoms are
presented as odds ratios; an odds ratio of 1.0 is
equivalent to no effect, and thus is presented as
equivalent to the zero effect estimate line.
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Considering also evidence from
toxicological, chamber, and field
studies, the Criteria Document (section
8.6) discusses biological plausibility and
coherence of evidence for acute O3induced respiratory health effects.
Inhalation of O3 for several hours while
subjects are physically active can elicit
both acute adverse pathophysiological
changes and subjective respiratory tract
symptoms (EPA, 2006a, section 8.4.2).
Acute pulmonary responses observed in
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healthy humans exposed to O3 at
ambient concentrations include:
decreased inspiratory capacity; mild
bronchoconstriction; rapid, shallow
breathing during exercise; subjective
symptoms of tracheobronchial airway
irritation, including cough and pain on
deep inspiration; decreases in measures
of lung function; and increased airway
resistance. The severity of symptoms
and magnitude of response depends on
inhaled dose, individual O3 sensitivity,
and the degree of attenuation or
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enhancement of response resulting from
previous O3 exposures. Lung function
studies of several animal species acutely
exposed to relatively low O3 levels (0.25
to 0.4 ppm) show responses similar to
those observed in humans, including
increased breathing frequency,
decreased tidal volume, increased
resistance, and decreased FVC.
Alterations in breathing pattern return
to normal within hours of exposure, and
attenuation in functional responses
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following repeated O3 exposures is
similar to those observed in humans.
Physiological and biochemical
alterations investigated in controlled
human exposure and animal toxicology
studies tend to support certain
hypotheses of underlying pathological
mechanisms which lead to the
development of respiratory-related
effects reported in epidemiology studies
(e.g., increased hospitalization and
medication use). Some of these are: (a)
Decrements in lung function, (b)
bronchoconstriction, (c) increased
airway responsiveness, (d) airway
inflammation, (e) epithelial injury, (f)
immune system activation, (g) host
defense impairment, and (h) sensitivity
of individuals, which depends on at
least a person’s age, disease status,
genetic susceptibility, and the degree of
attenuation present due to prior
exposures. The time sequence,
magnitude, and overlap of these
complex events, both in terms of
development and recovery, illustrate the
inherent difficulty of interpreting the
biological plausibility of O3-induced
cardiopulmonary health effects (EPA,
2006a, p. 8–48).
The interaction of O3 with airway
epithelial cell membranes and ELF to
form lipid ozonation products and ROS
is supported by numerous human,
animal and in vitro studies. Ozonation
products and ROS initiate a cascade of
events that lead to oxidative stress,
injury, inflammation, airway epithelial
damage and increased epithelial damage
and increased alveolar permeability to
vascular fluids. Repeated respiratory
inflammation can lead to a chronic
inflammatory state with altered lung
structure and lung function and may
lead to chronic respiratory diseases such
as fibrosis and emphysema (EPA, 2006a,
section 8.6.2). Continued respiratory
inflammation also can alter the ability to
respond to infectious agents, allergens
and toxins. Acute inflammatory
responses to O3 are well documented,
and lung injury can become apparent
within 3 hours after exposure in
humans.
Taken together, the Criteria Document
concludes that the evidence from
experimental human and animal
toxicology studies indicates that acute
O3 exposure is causally associated with
respiratory system effects, including O3induced pulmonary function
decrements, respiratory symptoms, lung
inflammation, and increased lung
permeability, airway
hyperresponsiveness, increased uptake
of nonviable and viable particles, and
consequent increased susceptibility to
PM-related toxic effects and respiratory
infections (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–48).
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ii. Coherence and Plausibility of Effects
on the Cardiovascular System
There is very limited experimental
evidence of animals and humans that
has evaluated possible mechanisms or
physiological pathways by which acute
O3 exposures may induce
cardiovascular system effects. Ozone
induces lung injury, inflammation, and
impaired mucociliary clearance, with a
host of associated biochemical changes
all leading to increased lung epithelial
permeability. As noted above in section
II.A.2.b, the generation of lipid
ozonation products and ROS in lung
tissues can influence pulmonary
hemodynamics, and ultimately the
cardiovascular system. Other potential
mechanisms by which O3 exposure may
be associated with cardiovascular
disease outcomes have been described.
Laboratory animals exposed to relatively
high O3 concentrations (≥0.5 ppm)
demonstrate tissue edema in the heart
and lungs. Ozone-induced changes in
heart rate, edema of heart tissue, and
increased tissue and serum levels of
ANF found with 8-hour 0.5 ppm O3
exposure in animal toxicology studies
(Vesely et al., 1994a, b, c) also raise the
possibility of potential cardiovascular
effects of acute ambient O3 exposures.
Animal toxicology studies have found
both transient and persistent ventilatory
responses with and without progressive
decreases in heart rate (Arito et al.,
1997). Observations of O3-induced
vasoconstriction in a controlled human
exposure study by Brook et al. (2002)
suggests another possible mechanism
for O3-related exacerbations of
preexisting cardiovascular disease. One
controlled human study (Gong et al.,
1998) evaluated potential cardiovascular
health effects of O3 exposure. The
overall results did not indicate acute
cardiovascular effects of O3 in either the
hypertensive or control subjects. The
authors observed an increase in ratepressure product and heart rate, a
decrement for FEV1, and a >10 mm Hg
increase in the alveolar/arterial pressure
difference for O2 following O3 exposure.
Foster et al. (1993) demonstrated that
even in relatively young healthy adults,
O3 exposure can cause ventilation to
shift away from the well-perfused basal
lung. This effect of O3 on ventilation
distribution may persist beyond 24hours post-exposure (Foster et al.,
1997). These findings suggest that O3
may exert cardiovascular effects
indirectly by impairing alveolar-arterial
O2 transfer and potentially reducing O2
supply to the myocardium. Ozone
exposure may increase myocardial work
and impair pulmonary gas exchange to
a degree that could perhaps be clinically
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important in persons with significant
preexisting cardiovascular impairment.
As noted above in section II.A.2.b, a
limited number of new epidemiological
studies have reported associations
between short-term O3 exposure and
effects on the cardiovascular system.
Among these studies, three were
population-based and involved
relatively large cohorts; two of these
studies evaluated associations between
O3 and heart rate variability (HRV) and
the other study evaluated the
association between O3 levels and the
relative risk of myocardial infarction
(MI). Such studies may offer more
informative results based on their large
subject-pool and design. Results from
these three studies were suggestive of an
association between O3 exposure and
the cardiovascular endpoints studied. In
other recent studies on the incidence of
MI and some more subtle cardiovascular
health endpoints, such as changes in
HRV or cardiac arrhythmia, some but
not all studies reported associations
with short-term exposure to O3 (EPA,
2006a, section 7.2.7.1). From these
studies, the Criteria Document
concludes that the ‘‘current evidence is
rather limited but suggestive of a
potential effect on HRV, ventricular
arrhythmias, and MI incidence’’ (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–65).
An increasing number of studies have
evaluated the association between O3
exposure and cardiovascular hospital
admissions. As discussed in section
7.3.4 of the Criteria Document, many
reported negative or inconsistent
associations, whereas other studies,
especially those that examined the
relationship when O3 exposures were
higher, have found positive and robust
associations between O3 and
cardiovascular hospital admissions. The
Criteria Document finds that the overall
evidence from these studies remains
inconclusive regarding the effect of O3
on cardiovascular hospitalizations (EPA,
2006a, p. 7–83).
The Criteria Document notes that the
suggestive positive epidemiologic
findings of O3 exposure on cardiac
autonomic control, including effects on
HRV, ventricular arrhythmias and MI,
and reported associations between O3
exposure and cardiovascular
hospitalizations generally in the warm
season gain credibility and scientific
support from the results of experimental
animal toxicology and human clinical
studies, which are indicative of
plausible pathways by which O3 may
exert cardiovascular effects (EPA, 2006a,
section 8.6.1).
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iii. Coherence and Plausibility of Effects
Related to Long-Term O3 Exposure
epidemiologic studies (EPA, 2006a,
p. 8–51).
Human chamber studies can not
evaluate effects of long-term exposures
to O3; there is some evidence available
from toxicological studies. While early
animal toxicology studies of long-term
O3 exposures were conducted using
continuous exposures, more recent
studies have focused on exposures
which mimic diurnal and seasonal
patterns and more realistic O3 exposure
levels (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–50). Studies of
monkeys that compared these two
exposure scenarios found increased
airway pathology only with the latter
design. Persistent and irreversible
effects reported in chronic animal
toxicology studies suggest that
additional complementary human data
are needed from epidemiologic studies
(EPA, 2006a, p. 8–50).
There is limited evidence from human
studies for long-term O3-induced effects
on lung function. As discussed in
section 8.6.2 of the Criteria Document,
previous epidemiological studies have
provided only inconclusive evidence for
either mortality or morbidity effects of
long-term O3 exposure. The Criteria
Document observes that the
inconsistency in findings may be due to
a lack of precise exposure information,
the possibility of selection bias, and the
difficulty of controlling for confounders
(EPA, 2006a, p. 8–50). Several new
longitudinal epidemiology studies have
evaluated associations between longterm O3 exposures and morbidity and
mortality and suggest that these longterm exposures may be related to
changes in lung function in children;
however, little evidence is available to
support a relationship between chronic
O3 exposure and mortality or lung
cancer incidence (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–50).
The Criteria Document (p. 8–51)
concludes that evidence from animal
toxicology studies strongly suggests that
chronic O3 exposure is capable of
damaging the distal airways and
proximal alveoli, resulting in lung tissue
remodeling leading to apparent
irreversible changes. Such structural
changes and compromised pulmonary
function caused by persistent
inflammation may exacerbate the
progression and development of chronic
lung disease. Together with the limited
evidence available from epidemiological
studies, these findings offer some
insight into potential biological
mechanisms for suggested associations
between long-term or seasonal
exposures to O3 and reduced lung
function development in children
which have been observed in
iv. Coherence and Plausibility of ShortTerm Mortality-Related Health
Endpoints
An extensive epidemiological
literature on air pollution related
mortality risk estimates from the U.S.,
Canada, and Europe is discussed in the
Criteria Document (sections 7.4 and
8.6.3). These single- and multi-city
mortality studies coupled with metaanalyses generally indicate associations
between acute O3 exposure and elevated
risk for all-cause mortality, even after
adjustment for the influence of season
and PM. Several single-city studies that
specifically evaluated the relationship
between O3 exposure and
cardiopulmonary mortality also
reported results suggestive of a positive
association (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–51). These
mortality studies suggest a pattern of
effects for causality that have
biologically plausible explanations, but
our knowledge regarding potential
underlying mechanisms is very limited
at this time and requires further
research. Most of the physiological and
biochemical parameters investigated in
human and animal studies suggest that
O3-induced biochemical effects are
relatively transient and attenuate over
time. The Criteria Document (p. 8–52)
hypothesizes a generic pathway of O3induced lung damage, potentially
involving oxidative lung damage with
subsequent inflammation and/or decline
in lung function leading to respiratory
distress in some sensitive population
groups (e.g., asthmatics), or other
plausible pathways noted below that
may lead to O3-related contributions to
cardiovascular effects that ultimately
increase risk of mortality.
The third National Health and
Nutrition Examination Follow-up data
analysis indicates that about 20 percent
of the adult population has reduced
FEV1 values, suggesting impaired lung
function in some portion of the
population. Most of these individuals
have COPD, asthma or fibrotic lung
disease (Manino et al., 2003), which are
associated with persistent low-grade
inflammation. Furthermore, patients
with COPD are at increased risk for
cardiovascular disease. Also, lung
disease with underlying inflammation
may be linked to low-grade systemic
inflammation associated with
atherosclerosis, independent of cigarette
smoking (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–52). Lung
function decrements in persons with
cardiopulmonary disease have been
associated with inflammatory markers,
such as C-reactive protein (CRP) in the
blood. At a population level it has been
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found that individuals with the lowest
FEV1 values have the highest levels of
CRP, and those with the highest FEV1
values have the lowest CRP levels
(Manino et al., 2003; Sin and Man,
2003). This complex series of
physiological and biochemical reactions
following O3 exposure may tilt the
biological homeostasis mechanisms
which could lead to adverse health
effects in people with compromised
cardiopulmonary systems.
Of much interest are several other
types of newly available data that
support reasonable hypotheses that may
help to explain the findings of O3related increases in cardiovascular
mortality observed in some
epidemiological studies. These include
the direct effect of O3 on increasing PAF
in lung tissue that can then enter the
general circulation and possibly
contribute to increased risk of blood clot
formation and the consequent increased
risk of MI, cerebrovascular events
(stroke), or associated cardiovascularrelated mortality. Ozone reactions with
cholesterol in lung surfactant to form
epoxides and oxysterols that are
cytotoxic to lung and heart muscles and
that contribute to atherosclerotic plaque
formation in arterial walls represent
another potential pathway. Stimulation
of airway irritant receptors may lead to
increases in tissue and serum levels of
ANF, changes in heart rate, and edema
of heart tissue. A few new field and
panel studies of human adults have
reported associations between ambient
O3 concentrations and changes in
cardiac autonomic control (e.g., HRV,
ventricular arrhythmias, and MI). These
represent plausible pathways that may
lead to O3-related contributions to
cardiovascular effects that ultimately
increase the risk of mortality.
In addition, O3-induced increases in
lung permeability allow more ready
entry for inhaled PM into the blood
stream, and O3 exposure may increase
the risk of PM-related cardiovascular
effects. Furthermore, increased ambient
O3 levels contribute to ultrafine PM
formation in the ambient air and indoor
environments. Thus, the contributions
of elevated ambient O3 concentrations to
ultrafine PM formation and human
exposure, along with the enhanced
uptake of inhaled fine particles,
consequently may contribute to
exacerbation of PM-induced
cardiovascular effects in addition to
those more directly induced by O3 (EPA,
2006a, p. 8–53).
c. Summary
Judgments concerning the extent to
which relationships between various
health endpoints and ambient O3
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exposures are likely causal are informed
by the conclusions and discussion in
the Criteria Document as discussed
above and summarized in section 3.7.5
of the Staff Paper. These judgments
reflect the nature of the evidence and
overall weight of the evidence, and are
taken into consideration in the
quantitative risk assessment discussed
below in section II.B.2.
For example, there is a very high level
of confidence that O3 induces lung
function decrements in healthy adults
and children due in part to the dozens
of controlled human exposure and
epidemiological studies consistently
showing such effects. The Criteria
Document (p. 8–74) states that these
studies provide clear evidence of
causality for associations between shortterm O3 exposures and statistically
significant declines in lung function in
children, asthmatics and adults who
exercise outdoors. An increase in
respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough,
shortness of breath) has been observed
in controlled human exposure studies of
short-term O3 exposures, and significant
associations between ambient O3
exposures and a wide variety of
symptoms have been reported in
epidemiology studies (EPA, 2006a, p. 8–
75). Aggregate population time-series
studies showing robust associations
with respiratory hospital admissions
and emergency department visits are
strongly supported by human clinical,
animal toxicologic, and epidemiologic
evidence for O3-related lung function
decrements, respiratory symptoms,
airway inflammation, and airway
hyperreactivity. The Criteria Document
(p. 8–77) concludes that, taken together,
the overall evidence supports the
inference of a causal relationship
between acute ambient O3 exposures
and increased respiratory morbidity
outcomes resulting in increased
emergency department visits and
hospitalizations during the warm
season. Further, recent epidemiologic
evidence has been characterized in the
Criteria Document (p. 8–78) as highly
suggestive that O3 directly or indirectly
contributes to non-accidental and
cardiopulmonary-related mortality.
4. O3-Related Impacts on Public Health
The following discussion draws from
chapters 6 and 7 and section 8.7 of the
Criteria Document and section 3.6 of the
Staff Paper to characterize factors which
modify responsiveness to O3,
subpopulations potentially at risk for
O3-related health effects, the adversity
of O3-related effects, and the size of the
at-risk subpopulations in the U.S. These
considerations are all important
elements in characterizing the potential
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public health impacts associated with
exposure to ambient O3.
a. Factors That Modify Responsiveness
to Ozone
There are numerous factors that can
modify individual responsiveness to O3.
These include: influence of physical
activity; age; gender and hormonal
influences; racial, ethnic and
socioeconomic status (SES) factors;
environmental factors; and oxidantantioxidant balance. These factors are
discussed in more detail in section 6.5
of the Criteria Document.
It is well established that physical
activity increases an individual’s
minute ventilation and will thus
increase the dose of O3 inhaled (EPA,
2006a, section 6.5.4). Increased physical
activity results in deeper penetration of
O3 into more distal regions of the lungs,
which are more sensitive to acute O3
response and injury. This will result in
greater lung function decrements for
acute exposures of individuals during
increased physical activity. Research
has shown that respiratory effects are
observed at lower O3 concentrations if
the level of exertion is increased and/or
duration of exposure and exertion are
extended. Predicted O3-induced
decrements in lung function have been
shown to be a function of exposure
concentration, duration and exercise
level for healthy, young adults
(McDonnell et al., 1997).
Most of the studies investigating the
influence of age have used lung function
decrements and symptoms as measures
of response. For healthy adults, lung
function and symptom responses to O3
decline as age increases. The rate of
decline in O3 responsiveness appears
greater in those 18 to 35 years old
compared to those 35 to 55 years old,
while there is very little change after age
55. In one study (Seal et al., 1996)
analyzing a large data set, a 5.4%
decrement in FEV1 was estimated for 20
year old individuals exposed to 0.12
ppm O3, whereas similar exposure of 35
year old individuals were estimated to
have a 2.6% decrement. While healthy
children tend not to report respiratory
symptoms when exposed to low levels
of O3, for subjects 18 to 36 years old
symptom responses induced by O3 tend
to decrease with increasing age
(McDonnell et al., 1999).
Limited evidence of gender
differences in response to O3 exposure
has suggested that females may be
predisposed to a greater susceptibility to
O3. Lower plasma and NL fluid levels of
the most prevalent antioxidant, uric
acid, in females relative to males may be
a contributing factor. Consequently,
reduced removal of O3 in the upper
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airways may promote deeper
penetration. However, most of the
evidence on gender differences appears
to be equivocal, with one study
(Hazucha et al., 2003) suggesting that
physiological responses of young
healthy males and females may be
comparable (EPA, 2006a, section 6.5.2).
A few studies have suggested that
ethnic minorities might be more
responsive to O3 than Caucasian
population groups (EPA, 2006a, section
6.5.3). This may be more the result of a
lack of adequate health care and
socioeconomic status (SES) than any
differences in sensitivity to O3. The
limited data available, which have
investigated the influence of race, ethnic
or other related factors on
responsiveness to O3, prevent drawing
any clear conclusions at this time.
Few human studies have examined
the potential influence of environmental
factors such as the sensitivity of
individuals who voluntarily smoke
tobacco (i.e., smokers) and the effect of
high temperatures. New controlled
human exposure studies have confirmed
that smokers are less responsive to O3
than nonsmokers; however, time course
of development and recovery of these
effects, as well as reproducibility, was
not different from nonsmokers (EPA,
2006a, section 6.5.5). Influence of
ambient temperature on pulmonary
effects induced by O3 has been studied
very little, but additive effects of heat
and O3 exposure have been reported.
Antioxidants, which scavenge free
radicals and limit lipid peroxidation in
the ELF, are the first line of defense
against oxidative stress. Ozone exposure
leads to absorption of O3 in the ELF
with subsequent depletion of
antioxidant in the nasal ELF, but
concentration and antioxidant enzyme
activity in ELF or plasma do not appear
related to O3 responsiveness (EPA
2006a, section 6.5.6). Controlled studies
of dietary antioxidant supplements have
shown some protective effects on lung
function decrements but not on
symptoms and airway inflammatory
responses. Dietary antioxidant
supplements have provided some
protection to asthmatics by attenuating
post-exposure airway
hyperresponsiveness. Animal studies
have also supported the protective
effects of ELF antioxidants.
b. At-Risk Subgroups for O3-Related
Effects
Several characteristics may increase
the extent to which a population group
shows increased susceptibility or
vulnerability. Information on potentially
susceptible and vulnerable groups is
summarized in section 8.7 of the
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Criteria Document. As described there,
the term susceptibility refers to innate
(e.g., genetic or developmental) or
acquired (e.g., personal risk factors, age)
factors that make individuals more
likely to experience effects with
exposure to pollutants. A number of
population groups have been identified
as potentially susceptible to health
effects as a result of O3 exposure,
including people with existing lung
diseases, including asthma, children
and older adults, and people who have
larger than normal lung function
responses that may be due to genetic
susceptibility. In addition, some
population groups have been identified
as having increased vulnerability to O3related effects due to increased
likelihood of exposure while at elevated
ventilation rates, including healthy
children and adults who are active
outdoors, for example, outdoor workers,
and joggers. Taken together, the
susceptible and vulnerable groups make
up ‘‘at-risk’’ groups.22
i. Active People
A large group of individuals at risk
from O3 exposure consists of outdoor
workers and children, adolescents, and
adults who engage in outdoor activities
involving exertion or exercise during
summer daylight hours when ambient
O3 concentrations tend to be higher.
This conclusion is based on a large
number of controlled-human exposure
studies and several epidemiologic field/
panel studies which have been
conducted with healthy children and
adults and those with preexisting
respiratory diseases (EPA 2006a,
sections 6.2, 6.3, 7.2, and 8.4.4). The
controlled human exposure studies
show a clear O3 exposure-response
relationship with increasing spirometric
and symptomatic response as exercise
level increases. Furthermore, O3induced response increases as time of
exposure increases. Studies of outdoor
workers and others who participate in
outdoor activities indicate that extended
exposures to O3 at elevated exertion
levels can produce marked effects on
lung function, as discussed above in
¨
section IIA.2 (Brauer et al., 1996; Hoppe
et al., 1995; Korrick et al., 1998;
McConnell et al., 2002).
These field studies with subjects at
elevated exertion levels support the
extensive evidence derived from
controlled human exposure studies. The
majority of human chamber studies
have examined the effects of O3
22 In the Staff Paper and documents from previous
O3 NAAQS reviews, ‘‘at-risk’’ groups have also been
called ‘‘sensitive’’ groups, to mean both groups with
greater inherent susceptibility and those more likely
to be exposed.
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exposure in subjects performing
continuous or intermittent exercise for
variable periods of time. Significant O3induced respiratory responses have
been observed in clinical studies of
exercising individuals. The
epidemiologic studies discussed above
also indicate that prolonged exposure
periods, combined with elevated levels
of exertion or exercise, may magnify O3
effects on lung function. Thus, outdoor
workers and others who participate in
higher exertion activities outdoors
during the time of day when high peak
O3 concentrations occur appear to be
particularly vulnerable to O3 effects on
respiratory health. Although these
studies show a wide variability of
response and sensitivity among subjects
and the factors contributing to this
variability continue to be incompletely
understood, the effect of increased
exertion is consistent. It should be noted
that this wide variability of response
and sensitivity among subjects may be
in part due to the wide range of other
highly reactive photochemical oxidants
coexisting with O3 in the ambient air.
ii. People With Lung Disease
People with preexisting pulmonary
disease are likely to be among those at
increased risk from O3 exposure.
Altered physiological, morphological
and biochemical states typical of
respiratory diseases like asthma, COPD
and chronic bronchitis may render
people sensitive to additional oxidative
burden induced by O3 exposure. At the
time of the last review, it was concluded
that this group was at greater risk
because the impact of O3-induced
responses on already-compromised
respiratory systems would noticeably
impair an individual’s ability to engage
in normal activity or would be more
likely to result in increased selfmedication or medical treatment. At
that time there was little evidence that
people with pre-existing disease were
more responsive than healthy
individuals in terms of the magnitude of
pulmonary function decrements or
symptomatic responses. The new results
from controlled exposure and
epidemiologic studies continue to
indicate that individuals with
preexisting pulmonary disease are a
sensitive subpopulation for O3 health
effects.
Several clinical studies reviewed in
the 1996 Criteria Document on atopic
and asthmatic subjects had suggested
but not clearly demonstrated enhanced
responsiveness to acute O3 exposure
compared to healthy subjects. The
majority of the newer studies reviewed
in Chapter 6 of the Criteria Document
indicate that asthmatics are as sensitive
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as, if not more sensitive than, normal
subjects in manifesting O3-induced
pulmonary function decrements. In one
key study (Horstman et al., 1995), the
FEV1 decrement observed in the
asthmatics was significantly larger than
in the healthy subjects (19% versus
10%, respectively). There was also a
notable tendency for a greater O3induced decrease in FEF25–75 in
asthmatics relative to the healthy
subjects (24% versus 15%,
respectively). A significant positive
correlation in asthmatics was also
reported between O3-induced
spirometric responses and baseline lung
function, i.e., responses increased with
severity of disease.
Asthmatics present a differential
response profile for cellular, molecular,
and biochemical parameters (Criteria
Document, Figure 8–1) that are altered
in response to acute O3 exposure.
Ozone-induced increases in neutrophils,
IL–8 and protein were found to be
significantly higher in the BAL fluid
from asthmatics compared to healthy
subjects, suggesting mechanisms for the
increased sensitivity of asthmatics
(Basha et al., 1994; McBride et al., 1994;
Scannell et al., 1996; Hiltermann et al.,
1999; Holz et al., 1999; Bosson et al.,
2003). Neutrophils, or PMNs, are the
white blood cell most associated with
inflammation. IL–8 is an inflammatory
cytokine with a number of biological
effects, primarily on neutrophils. The
major role of this cytokine is to attract
and activate neutrophils. Protein in the
airways is leaked from the circulatory
system, and is a marker for increased
cellular permeability.
Bronchial constriction following
provocation with O3 and/or allergens
presents a two-phase response. The
early response is mediated by release of
histamine and leukotrienes that leads to
contraction of smooth muscle cells in
the bronchi, narrowing the lumen and
decreasing the airflow. In people with
allergic airway disease, including
people with rhinitis and asthma, these
mediators also cause accumulation of
eosinophils in the airways (Bascom et
al., 1990; Jorres et al., 1996; Peden et al.,
1995 and 1997; Frampton et al., 1997a;
Michelson et al., 1999; Hiltermann et
al., 1999; Holz et al., 2002; Vagaggini et
al., 2002). In asthma, the eosinophil,
which increases inflammation and
allergic responses, is the cell most
frequently associated with exacerbations
of the disease. A study by Bosson et al.
(2003) evaluated the difference in O3induced bronchial epithelial cytokine
expression between healthy and
asthmatic subjects. After O3 exposure
the epithelial expression of IL–5 and
GM-CSF increased significantly in
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asthmatics, compared to healthy
subjects. Asthma is associated with Th2related airway response (allergic
response), and IL–5 is an important
Th2-related cytokine. The O3-induced
increase in IL–5, and also in GM-CSF,
which affects the growth, activation and
survival of eosinophils, may indicate an
effect on the Th2-related airway
response and on airway eosinophils.
The authors reported that the O3induced Th2-related cytokine responses
that were found within the asthmatic
group may indicate a worsening of their
asthmatic airway inflammation and thus
suggest a plausible link to
epidemiological data indicating O3associated increases in bronchial
reactivity and hospital admissions.
The accumulation of eosinophils in
the airways of asthmatics is followed by
production of mucus and a late-phase
bronchial constriction and reduced
airflow. In a study of 16 intermittent
asthmatics, Hiltermann et al. (1999)
found that there was a significant
inverse correlation between the O3induced change in the percentage of
eosinophils in induced sputum and the
change in PC20, the concentration of
methacholine causing a 20% decrease in
FEV1. Characteristic O3-induced
inflammatory airway neutrophilia at one
time was considered a leading
mechanism of airway
hyperresponsiveness. However,
Hiltermann et al. (1999) determined that
the O3-induced change in percentage
neutrophils in sputum was not
significantly related to the change in
PC20. These results are consistent with
the results of Zhang et al. (1995), which
found neutrophilia in a murine model to
be only coincidentally associated with
airway hyperresponsiveness, i.e., there
was no cause and effect relationship.
(Criteria Document, AX 6–26).
Hiltermann et al. (1999) concluded that
the results point to the role of
eosinophils in O3-induced airway
hyperresponsiveness. Increases in O3induced nonspecific airway
responsiveness incidence and duration
could have important clinical
implications for asthmatics.
¨
Two studies (Jorres et al., 1996; Holz
et al., 2002) observed increased airway
responsiveness to O3 exposure with
bronchial allergen challenge in subjects
with preexisting allergic airway disease.
¨
Jorres et al. (1996) found that O3 causes
an increased response to bronchial
allergen challenge in subjects with
allergic rhinitis and mild allergic
asthma. The subjects were exposed to
0.25 ppm O3 for 3 hours with IE. Airway
responsiveness to methacholine was
determined 1 hour before and after
exposure; responsiveness to allergen
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was determined 3 hours after exposure.
Statistically significant decreases in
FEV1 occurred in subjects with allergic
rhinitis (13.8%) and allergic asthma
(10.6%), and in healthy controls (7.3%).
Methacholine responsiveness was
statistically increased in asthmatics, but
not in subjects with allergic rhinitis or
healthy controls. Airway responsiveness
to an individual’s historical allergen
(either grass and birch pollen, house
dust mite, or animal dander) was
significantly increased after O3 exposure
when compared to FA exposure. In
subjects with asthma and allergic
rhinitis, a maximum percent fall in
FEV1 of 27.9% and 7.8%, respectively,
occurred 3 days after O3 exposure when
they were challenged with of the highest
common dose of allergen. The authors
concluded that subjects with asthma or
allergic rhinitis, without asthma, could
be at risk if a high O3 exposure is
followed by a high dose of allergen.
Holz et al. (2002) reported an early
phase lung function response in subjects
with rhinitis after a consecutive 4-day
exposure to 0.125 ppm O3 that resulted
in a clinically relevant (>20%) decrease
in FEV1. Ozone-induced exacerbation of
airway responsiveness persists longer
and attenuates more slowly than O3induced lung function decrements and
respiratory symptom responses and can
have important clinical implications for
asthmatics.
A small number of in vitro studies
corroborate the differences in the
responses of asthmatic and healthy
subject generally found in controlled
human exposure studies. In vitro
studies (Schierhorn et al., 1999) of nasal
mucosal biopsies from atopic and
nonatopic subjects exposed to 0.1 ppm
O3 found significant differences in
release of IL–4, IL–6, IL–8, and TNF-a.
Another study by Schierhorn et al.
(2002) found significant differences in
the O3-induced release of the
neuropeptides neurokinin A and
substance P for allergic patients in
comparison to nonallergic controls,
suggesting increased activation of
sensory nerves by O3 in the allergic
tissues. Another study by Bayram et al.
(2002) using in vitro culture of
bronchial epithelial cells recovered from
atopic and nonatopic asthmatics also
found significant increases in epithelial
permeability in response to O3
exposure.
The new data on airway
responsiveness, inflammation, and
various molecular markers of
inflammation and bronchoconstriction
indicate that people with asthma and
allergic rhinitis (with or without
asthma) comprise susceptible groups for
O3-induced adverse effects. This body of
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evidence indicates that human clinical
and epidemiological panel studies of
lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms that evaluate only
healthy, non-asthmatic subjects likely
underestimate the effects of O3 exposure
on asthmatics and other susceptible
populations. The effects of O3 on lung
function, inflammation, and increased
airway responsiveness demonstrated in
subjects with asthma and other allergic
airway diseases, provide plausible
mechanisms underlying the more
serious respiratory morbidity effects,
such as emergency department visits
and hospital admissions, and
respiratory mortality effects.
A number of epidemiological studies
have been conducted using asthmatic
study populations. The majority of
epidemiological panel studies that
evaluated respiratory symptoms and
medication use related to O3 exposures
focused on children. These studies
suggest that O3 exposure may be
associated with increased respiratory
symptoms and medication use in
children with asthma. Other reported
effects include respiratory symptoms,
lung function decrements, and
emergency department visits, as
discussed in the Criteria Document
(section 7.6.7.1). Strong evidence from a
large multi-city study (Mortimer et al.,
2002), along with support from several
single-city studies suggest that O3
exposure may be associated with
increased respiratory symptoms and
medication use in children with asthma.
With regard to ambient O3 levels and
increased hospital admissions and
emergency department visits for asthma
and other respiratory causes, strong and
consistent evidence establishes a
correlation between O3 exposure and
increased exacerbations of preexisting
respiratory disease for 1-hour maximum
O3 concentrations <0.12 ppm. As
discussed in the Criteria Document,
section 7.3, several hospital admission
and emergency department visit studies
in the U.S., Canada, and Europe have
reported positive associations between
increase in O3 and increased risk of
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions for asthma and
other respiratory diseases, especially
during the warm season. Finally, from
epidemiological studies that included
assessment of associations with specific
causes of death, some studies have
observed larger effects estimates for
respiratory mortality and others have
observed larger effects estimates for
cardiovascular mortality. The apparent
inconsistency regarding the effect size of
O3-related respiratory mortality may be
due to reduced statistical power in this
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subcategory of mortality (EPA, 2006a, p.
7–108).
Newly available reports from
controlled human exposure studies (see
chapter 6 in the Criteria Document)
utilized subjects with preexisting
cardiopulmonary diseases such as
COPD, asthma, allergic rhinitis, and
hypertension. The data generated from
these studies that evaluated changes in
spirometry did not find clear differences
between filtered air and O3 exposure in
COPD subjects. However, the new data
on airway responsiveness,
inflammation, and various molecular
markers of inflammation and
bronchoconstriction indicate that
people with atopic asthma and allergic
rhinitis comprise susceptible groups for
O3-induced adverse health effects.
Although controlled human exposure
studies have not found evidence of
larger spirometric changes in people
with COPD relative to healthy subjects,
this may be due to the fact that most
people with COPD are older adults who
would not be expected to have such
changes based on their age. However, in
section 8.7.1, the Criteria Document
notes that new epidemiological
evidence indicates that people with
COPD may be more likely to experience
other effects, including emergency room
visits, hospital admissions, or premature
mortality. For example, results from an
analysis of five European cities
indicated strong and consistent O3
effects on unscheduled respiratory
hospital admissions, including COPD
(Anderson et al., 1997). Also, an
analysis of a 9-year data set for the
whole population of the Netherlands
provided risk estimates for more
specific causes of mortality, including
COPD (Hoek et al., 2000, 2001;
reanalysis, Hoek, 2003); a positive, but
nonsignificant, excess risk of COPDrelated mortality was found to be
associated with short-term O3
concentrations. Moreover, as indicated
by Gong et al. (1998), the effects of O3
exposure on alveolar-arterial oxygen
gradients may be more pronounced in
patients with preexisting obstructive
lung diseases. Relative to healthy
elderly subjects, COPD patients have
reduced gas exchange and low SaO2.
Any inflammatory or edematous
responses due to O3 delivered to the
well-ventilated regions of the COPD
lung could further inhibit gas exchange
and reduce oxygen saturation. In
addition, O3-induced vasoconstriction
could also acutely induce pulmonary
hypertension. Inducing pulmonary
vasoconstriction and hypertension in
these patients would perhaps worsen
their condition, especially if their right
ventricular function was already
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compromised (EPA, 2006a, section
6.10).
iii. Children and Older Adults
Supporting evidence exists for
heterogeneity in the effects of O3 by age.
As discussed in section 6.5.1 of the
Criteria Document, children,
adolescents, and young adults (<18 yrs
of age) appear, on average, to have
nearly equivalent spirometric responses
to O3, but have greater responses than
middle-aged and older adults when
exposed to comparable O3 doses.
Symptomatic responses to O3 exposure,
however, do not appear to occur in
healthy children, but are observed in
asthmatic children, particularly those
who use maintenance medications. For
adults (>17 yrs of age) symptoms
gradually decrease with increasing age.
In contrast to young adults, the
diminished symptomatic responses in
children and the diminished
symptomatic and spirometric responses
in older adults increases the likelihood
that these groups continue outdoor
activities leading to greater O3 exposure
and dose.
As described in the section 7.6.7.2 of
the Criteria Document, many
epidemiological field studies focused on
the effect of O3 on the respiratory health
of school children. In general, children
experienced decrements in pulmonary
function parameters, including PEF,
FEV1, and FVC. Increases in respiratory
symptoms and asthma medication use
were also observed in asthmatic
children. In one German study, children
with and without asthma were found to
be particularly susceptible to O3 effects
on lung function. Approximately 20%
of the children, both with and without
asthma, experienced a greater than 10%
change in FEV1, compared to only 5%
of the elderly population and athletes
¨
(Hoppe et al., 2003).
The American Academy of Pediatrics
(2004) notes that children and infants
are among the population groups most
susceptible to many air pollutants,
including O3. This is in part because
their lungs are still developing. For
example, eighty percent of alveoli are
formed after birth, and changes in lung
development continue through
adolescence (Dietert et al., 2000).
Children are also likely to spend more
time outdoors than adults, which results
in increased exposure to air pollutants
(Wiley et al., 1991a,b). Moreover,
children have high minute ventilation
rates and high levels of physical activity
which also increases their dose
(Plunkett et al., 1992).
Several mortality studies have
investigated age-related differences in
O3 effects (EPA, 2006a, section 7.6.7.2).
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Older adults are also often classified as
being particularly susceptible to air
pollution. The basis for increased O3
sensitivity among the elderly is not
known, but one hypothesis is that it
may be related to changes in the
respiratory tract lining fluid antioxidant
defense network (Kelly et al., 2003).
(EPA 2006a, p. 8–60) Older adults have
lower baseline lung function than
younger people, and are also more likely
to have preexisting lung and heart
disease. Increased susceptibility of older
adults to O3 health effects is most
clearly indicated in the newer mortality
studies. Among the studies that
observed positive associations between
O3 and mortality, a comparison of all
age or younger age (≤65 years of age) O3mortality effect estimates to that of the
elderly population (>65 years) indicates
that, in general, the elderly population
is more susceptible to O3 mortality
effects. The meta-analysis by Bell et al.
(2005) found a larger mortality effect
estimate for the elderly than for all ages.
In the large U.S. 95 communities study
(Bell et al., 2004), mortality effect
estimates were slightly higher for those
aged 65 to 74 years, compared to
individuals less than 65 years and 75
years or greater. The absolute effect of
O3 on premature mortality may be
substantially greater in the elderly
population because of higher rates of
preexisting respiratory and cardiac
diseases. The Criteria Document
concludes that the elderly population
(>65 years of age) appear to be at greater
risk of O3-related mortality and
hospitalizations compared to all ages or
younger populations (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–
177).
The Criteria Document notes that,
collectively, there is supporting
evidence of age-related differences in
susceptibility to O3 lung function
effects. The elderly population (>65
years of age) appear to be at increased
risk of O3-related mortality and
hospitalizations, and children (<18
years of age) experience other
potentially adverse respiratory health
outcomes with increased O3 exposure
(EPA, 2006a, section 7.6.7.2).
iv. People With Increased
Responsiveness to Ozone
New animal toxicology studies using
various strains of mice and rats have
identified O3-sensitive and resistant
strains and illustrated the importance of
genetic background in determining O3
susceptibility (EPA, 2006a, section
8.7.4). Controlled human exposure
studies have also indicated a high
degree of variability in some of the
pulmonary physiological parameters.
The variable effects in individuals have
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been found to be reproducible, in other
words, a person who has a large lung
function response after exposure to O3
will likely have about the same response
if exposed again to the same dose of O3.
In human clinical studies, group mean
responses are not representative of this
segment of the population that has
much larger than average responses to
O3. Recent studies of asthmatics by
David et al. (2003) and Romieu et al.
(2004) reported a role for genetic
polymorphism in observed differences
in antioxidant enzymes and genes
involved in inflammation to modulate
pulmonary function and inflammatory
responses to O3 exposure.23
Biochemical and molecular
parameters extensively evaluated in
these experiments were used to identify
specific loci on chromosomes and, in
some cases, to relate the differential
expression of specific genes to
biochemical and physiological
differences observed among these
species. Utilizing O3-sensitive and O3resistant species, it has been possible to
identify the involvement of increased
airway reactivity and inflammation
processes in O3 susceptibility. However,
most of these studies were carried out
using relatively high doses of O3,
making the relevance of these studies
questionable in human health effects
assessment. The genes and genetic loci
identified in these studies may serve as
useful biomarkers and, ultimately, can
likely be integrated with
epidemiological studies.
concludes that current cardiovascular
effects evidence from some field studies
is rather limited but supportive of a
potential effect of short-term O3
exposure and HRV, cardiac arrhythmia,
and MI incidence (EPA, 2006a, p. 7–65).
In the Criteria Document’s evaluation of
studies of hospital admissions for
cardiovascular disease (EPA 2006a,
section 7.3.4), it is concluded that
evidence from this growing group of
studies is generally inconclusive
regarding an association with O3 in
studies conducted during the warm
season (EPA 2006a, p. 7–83). This body
of evidence suggests that people with
heart disease may be at increased risk
from short-term exposures to O3;
however, more evidence is needed to
conclude that people with heart disease
are a susceptible population.
Other groups that might have
enhanced sensitivity to O3, but for
which there is currently very little
evidence, include groups based on race,
gender and SES, and those with
nutritional deficiencies, which presents
factors which modify responsiveness to
O3.
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v. Other Population Groups
There is limited, new evidence
supporting associations between shortterm O3 exposures and a range of effects
on the cardiovascular system. Some but
not all, epidemiological studies have
reported associations between shortterm O3 exposures and the incidence of
MI and more subtle cardiovascular
health endpoints, such as changes in
HRV and cardiac arrhythmia. Others
have reported associations with
hospitalization or emergency
department visits for cardiovascular
diseases, although the results across the
studies are not consistent. Studies also
report associations between short-term
O3 exposure and mortality from
cardiovascular or cardiopulmonary
causes. The Criteria Document
c. Adversity of Effects
In making judgments as to when
various O3-related effects become
regarded as adverse to the health of
individuals, the Administrator has
looked to guidelines published by the
American Thoracic Society (ATS) and
the advice of CASAC. While recognizing
that perceptions of ‘‘medical
significance’’ and ‘‘normal activity’’ may
differ among physicians, lung
physiologists and experimental subjects,
the ATS (1985) 24 defined adverse
respiratory health effects as ‘‘medically
significant physiologic changes
generally evidenced by one or more of
the following: (1) Interference with the
normal activity of the affected person or
persons, (2) episodic respiratory illness,
(3) incapacitating illness, (4) permanent
respiratory injury, and/or (5) progressive
respiratory dysfunction.’’ During the
1997 review, it was concluded that there
was evidence of causal associations
from controlled human exposure studies
for effects in the first of these five ATSdefined categories, evidence of
statistically significant associations from
epidemiological studies for effects in the
second and third categories, and
23 Similar to animal toxicology studies referred
above, a polymorphism in a specific
proinflammatory cytokine gene has been implicated
in O3-induced lung function changes in healthy,
mild asthmatics and individuals with rhinitis.
These observations suggest a potential role for these
markers in the innate susceptibility to O3, however,
the validity of these markers and their relevance in
the context of prediction to population studies
needs additional experimentation.
24 In 2000, the American Thoracic Society (ATS)
published an official statement on ‘‘What
Constitutes an Adverse Health Effect of Air
Pollution?’’ (ATS, 2000), which updated its earlier
guidance (ATS, 1985). Overall, the new guidance
does not fundamentally change the approach
previously taken to define adversity, nor does it
suggest a need at this time to change the structure
or content of the tables describing gradation of
severity and adversity of effects described below.
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evidence from animal toxicology
studies, which could be extrapolated to
humans only with a significant degree
of uncertainty, for the last two
categories.
For ethical reasons, clear causal
evidence from controlled human
exposure studies still covers only effects
in the first category. However, for this
review there are results from
epidemiological studies, upon which to
base judgments about adversity, for
effects in all of the categories.
Statistically significant and robust
associations have been reported in
epidemiology studies falling into the
second and third categories. These more
serious effects include respiratory
events (e.g., triggering asthma attacks)
that may require medication (e.g.,
asthma), but not necessarily
hospitalization, as well as respiratory
hospital admissions and emergency
department visits for respiratory causes.
Less conclusive, but still positive
associations have been reported for
school absences and cardiovascular
hospital admissions. Human health
effects for which associations have been
suggested through evidence from
epidemiological and animal toxicology
studies, but have not been conclusively
demonstrated still fall primarily into the
last two categories. In the last review of
the O3 standard, evidence for these more
serious effects came from studies of
effects in laboratory animals. Evidence
from animal studies evaluated in this
Criteria Document strongly suggests that
O3 is capable of damaging the distal
airways and proximal alveoli, resulting
in lung tissue remodeling leading to
apparently irreversible changes. Recent
advancements of dosimetry modeling
also provide a better basis for
extrapolation from animals to humans.
Information from epidemiological
studies provides supporting, but limited
evidence of irreversible respiratory
effects in humans than was available in
the prior review. Moreover, the findings
from single-city and multi-city timeseries epidemiology studies and metaanalyses of these epidemiology studies
are highly suggestive of an association
between short-term O3 exposure and
mortality particularly in the warm
season.
While O3 has been associated with
effects that are clearly adverse,
application of these guidelines, in
particular to the least serious category of
effects related to ambient O3 exposures,
involves judgments about which
medical experts on the CASAC panel
and public commenters have expressed
diverse views in the past. To help frame
such judgments, EPA staff have defined
specific ranges of functional responses
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(e.g., decrements in FEV1 and airway
responsiveness) and symptomatic
responses (e.g., cough, chest pain,
wheeze), together with judgments as to
the potential impact on individuals
experiencing varying degrees of severity
of these responses, that have been used
in previous NAAQS reviews. These
ranges of pulmonary responses and their
associated potential impacts are
summarized in Tables 3–2 and 3–3 of
the Staff Paper.
For active healthy people, moderate
levels of functional responses (e.g., FEV1
decrements of ≥10% but <20%, lasting
up to 24 hours) and/or moderate
symptomatic responses (e.g., frequent
spontaneous cough, marked discomfort
on exercise or deep breath, lasting up to
24 hours) would likely interfere with
normal activity for relatively few
responsive individuals. On the other
hand, EPA staff determined that large
functional responses (e.g., FEV1
decrements ≥20%, lasting longer than
24 hours) and/or severe symptomatic
responses (e.g., persistent
uncontrollable cough, severe discomfort
on exercise or deep breath, lasting
longer than 24 hours) would likely
interfere with normal activities for many
responsive individuals. EPA staff
determined that these would be
considered adverse under ATS
guidelines. In the context of standard
setting, CASAC indicated that a focus
on the mid to upper end of the range of
moderate levels of functional responses
(e.g., FEV1 decrements ≥15% but <20%)
is appropriate for estimating potentially
adverse lung function decrements in
active healthy people. However, for
people with lung disease, even
moderate functional (e.g., FEV1
decrements ≥10% but <20%, lasting up
to 24 hours) or symptomatic responses
(e.g., frequent spontaneous cough,
marked discomfort on exercise or with
deep breath, wheeze accompanied by
shortness of breath, lasting up to 24
hours) would likely interfere with
normal activity for many individuals,
and would likely result in more frequent
use of medication. For people with lung
disease, large functional responses (e.g.,
FEV1 decrements ≥20%, lasting longer
than 24 hours) and/or severe
symptomatic responses (e.g., persistent
uncontrollable cough, severe discomfort
on exercise or deep breath, persistent
wheeze accompanied by shortness of
breath, lasting longer than 24 hours)
would likely interfere with normal
activity for most individuals and would
increase the likelihood that these
individuals would seek medical
treatment. In the context of standard
setting, the CASAC indicated
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(Henderson, 2006c) that a focus on the
lower end of the range of moderate
levels of functional responses (e.g., FEV1
decrements ≥10%) is most appropriate
for estimating potentially adverse lung
function decrements in active healthy
people.
In judging the extent to which these
impacts represent effects that should be
regarded as adverse to the health status
of individuals, an additional factor that
has been considered in previous
NAAQS reviews is whether such effects
are experienced repeatedly during the
course of a year or only on a single
occasion. While some experts would
judge single occurrences of moderate
responses to be a ‘‘nuisance,’’ especially
for healthy individuals, a more general
consensus view of the adversity of such
moderate responses emerges as the
frequency of occurrence increases.
The new guidance builds upon and
expands the 1985 definition of adversity
in several ways. There is an increased
focus on quality of life measures as
indicators of adversity. There is also a
more specific consideration of
population risk. Exposure to air
pollution that increases the risk of an
adverse effect to the entire population is
adverse, even though it may not
increase the risk of any individual to an
unacceptable level. For example, a
population of asthmatics could have a
distribution of lung function such that
no individual has a level associated
with significant impairment. Exposure
to air pollution could shift the
distribution to lower levels that still do
not bring any individual to a level that
is associated with clinically relevant
effects. However, this would be
considered to be adverse because
individuals within the population
would have diminished reserve
function, and therefore would be at
increased risk if affected by another
agent.
Of the various effects of O3 exposure
that have been studied, many would
meet the ATS definition of adversity.
Such effects include, for example, any
detectible level of permanent lung
function loss attributable to air
pollution, including both reductions in
lung growth or acceleration of the agerelated decline of lung function;
exacerbations of disease in individuals
with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases;
reversible loss of lung function in
combination with the presence of
symptoms; as well as more serious
effects such as those requiring medical
care including hospitalization and,
obviously, mortality.
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d. Size of At-Risk Subpopulations
Although O3-related health risk
estimates may appear to be small, their
significance from an overall public
health perspective is determined by the
large numbers of individuals in the
subpopulations potentially at-risk for
O3-related health effects discussed
above. For example, a population of
concern includes people with
respiratory disease, including
approximately 11 percent of U.S. adults
and 13 percent of children who have
been diagnosed with asthma and 6
percent of adults with chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (chronic
bronchitis and/or emphysema) in 2002
and 2003 (Table 8–4 in the Criteria
Document, section 8.7.5.2). More
broadly, individuals with preexisting
cardiopulmonary disease may constitute
an additional population of concern,
with potentially tens of millions of
people included in each disease
category. In addition, subpopulations
based on age group also comprise
substantial segments of the population
that may be potentially at risk for O3related health impacts. Based on U.S.
census data from 2003, about 26 percent
of the U.S. population are under 18
years of age and 12 percent are 65 years
of age or older. Hence, large proportions
of the U.S. population are included in
age groups include those most likely to
have increased susceptibility to the
health effects of O3 and or those with
the highest ambient O3 exposures.
The Criteria Document (section
8.7.5.2) notes that the health statistics
data illustrate what is known as the
‘‘pyramid’’ of effects. At the top of the
pyramid, there are approximately 2.5
millions deaths from all causes per year
in the U.S. population, with about
100,000 deaths from chronic lower
respiratory diseases. For respiratory
health diseases, there are nearly 4
million hospital discharges per year, 14
million emergency department visits,
112 million ambulatory care visits, and
an estimated 700 million restricted
activity days per year due to respiratory
conditions from all causes per year.
Applying small risk estimates for the
O3-related contribution to such health
effects with relatively large baseline
levels of health outcomes can result in
quite large public health impacts related
to ambient O3 exposure. Thus, even a
small percentage reduction in O3 health
impacts on cardiopulmonary diseases
would reflect a large number of avoided
cases. In considering this information
together with the concentrationresponse relationships that have been
observed between exposure to O3 and
various health endpoints, the Criteria
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Document (section 8.7.5.2) concludes
that exposure to ambient O3 likely has
a significant impact on public health in
the U.S.
B. Human Exposure and Health Risk
Assessments
To put judgments about health effects
that are adverse for individuals into a
broader public health context, EPA has
developed and applied models to
estimate human exposures and health
risks. This broader context includes
consideration of the size of particular
population groups at risk for various
effects, the likelihood that exposures of
concern will occur for individuals in
such groups under varying air quality
scenarios, estimates of the number of
people likely to experience O3-related
effects, the variability in estimated
exposures and risks, and the kind and
degree of uncertainties inherent in
assessing the exposures and risks
involved.
As discussed below there are a
number of important uncertainties that
affect the exposure and health risk
estimates. It is also important to note
that there have been significant
improvements in both the exposure and
health risk model. CASAC expressed the
view that the exposure analysis
represents a state-of-the-art modeling
approach and that the health risk
assessment was ‘‘well done, balanced
and reasonably communicated’’
(Henderson, 2006c). While recognizing
and considering the kind and degree of
uncertainties in both the exposure and
health risk estimates, the Staff Paper
judged that the quality of the estimates
is such that they are suitable to be used
as an input to the Administrator’s
decisions on the O3 primary standard
(Staff Paper, p. 6–20—6–21).
In modeling exposures and health
risks associated with just meeting the
current and alternative O3 standards,
EPA has simulated air quality to
represent conditions just meeting these
standards based on O3 air quality
patterns in several recent years and on
how the shape of the O3 air quality
distribution has changed over time
based on historical trends in monitored
O3 air quality data. As described in the
Staff Paper (section 4.5.8) and discussed
below, recent O3 air quality
distributions have been statistically
adjusted to simulate just meeting the
current and selected alternative
standards. These simulations do not
reflect any consideration of specific
control programs or strategies designed
to achieve the reductions in emissions
required to meet the specified
standards. Further, these simulations do
not represent predictions of when,
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whether, or how areas might meet the
specified standards.25
As noted in section I.C above, around
the time of the release of the final Staff
Paper in January 2007, EPA discovered
a small error in the exposure model that
when corrected resulted in slight
increases in the simulated exposures.
Since the exposure estimates are an
input to the lung function portion of the
health risk assessment, this correction
also resulted in slight increases in the
lung function risk estimates as well. The
exposure and risk estimates discussed
in this notice reflect the corrected
estimates, and thus are slightly different
than the exposure and risk estimates
cited in the January 31, 2007 Staff
Paper.26
1. Exposure Analyses
a. Overview
The EPA conducted exposure
analyses using a simulation model to
estimate O3 exposures for the general
population, school age children (ages 5–
18), and school age children with
asthma living in 12 U.S. metropolitan
areas representing different regions of
the country where the current 8-hour O3
standard is not met. The emphasis on
children reflects the finding of the last
O3 NAAQS review that children are an
important at-risk group. The 12 modeled
areas combined represent a significant
fraction of the U.S. urban population, 89
million people, including 18 million
school age children of whom
approximately 2.6 million have asthma.
The selection of urban areas to include
in the exposure analysis took into
consideration the location of O3
epidemiological studies, the availability
of ambient O3 data, and the desire to
represent a range of geographic areas,
population demographics, and O3
climatology. These selection criteria are
discussed further in chapter 5 of the
Staff Paper. The geographic extent of
each modeled area consists of the
census tracts in the combined statistical
area (CSA) as defined by OMB (OMB,
2005).27
25 Modeling that projects whether and how areas
might attain alternative standards in a future year
is presented in the Regulatory Impact Analysis
being prepared in connection with this rulemaking.
26 EPA plans to make available corrected versions
of the final Staff Paper, and human exposure and
health risk assessment technical support documents
on or around July 16, 2007 on the EPA web site
listed in the Availability of Related Information
section of this notice.
27 The 12 CSAs modeled are: Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Gainesville, GA–AL; Boston-WorcesterManchester, MA–NH; Chicago-Naperville-Michigan
City, IL–IN–WI; Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH;
Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI; Houston-BaytownHuntsville, TX; Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside,
CA; New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY–NJ–CT–PA;
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Exposure estimates were developed
using a probabilistic exposure model
that is designed to explicitly model the
numerous sources of variability that
affect people’s exposures. As discussed
below, the model estimates population
exposures by simulating human activity
patterns, air conditioning prevalence,
air exchange rates, and other factors.
The modeled exposure estimates were
developed for three recent years of
ambient O3 concentrations (2002, 2003,
and 2004), as well as for O3
concentrations adjusted to simulate
conditions associated with just meeting
the current NAAQS and various
alternative 8-hour standards based on
the three year period 2002–2004.28 This
exposure assessment is more fully
described and presented in the Staff
Paper and in a technical support
document, Ozone Population Exposure
Analysis for Selected Urban Areas (US
EPA, 2006b; hereafter Exposure
Analysis TSD). The scope and
methodology for this exposure
assessment were developed over the last
few years with considerable input from
the CASAC Ozone Panel and the
public.29
The goals of the O3 exposure
assessment were: (1) To provide
estimates of the size of at-risk
populations exposed to various levels
associated with recent O3
concentrations, and with just meeting
the current O3 NAAQS and alternative
O3 standards, in specific urban areas; (2)
to provide distributions of exposure
estimates over the entire range of
ambient O3 concentrations as an
important input to the lung function
risk assessment summarized below in
section II.B.2; (3) to develop a better
understanding of the influence of
various inputs and assumptions on the
exposure estimates; and (4) to gain
insight into the distribution of
exposures and patterns of exposure
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA–NJ–DE–MD;
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Truckee, CA–NV; St.
Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO–IL; WashingtonBaltimore-N. Virginia, DC–MD–VA–WV.
28 All 12 of the CSAs modeled did not meet the
current O3 NAAQS for the three year period
examined.
29 The general approach used in the current
exposure assessment was described in the draft
Health Assessment Plan (EPA, 2005a) that was
released to the CASAC and general public in April
2005 and was the subject of a consultation with the
CASAC O3 Panel on May 5, 2005. In October 2005,
OAQPS released the first draft of the Staff Paper
containing a chapter discussing the exposure
analyses and first draft of the Exposure Analyses
TSD for CASAC consultation and public review on
December 8, 2005. In July 2006, OAQPS released
the second draft of the Staff Paper and second draft
of the Exposure Analyses TSD for CASAC review
and public comment which was held by the CASAC
O3 Panel on August 24–25, 2006.
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reductions associated with meeting
alternative O3 standards.
EPA recognizes that there are many
sources of variability and uncertainty
inherent in the inputs to this assessment
and that there is uncertainty in the
resulting O3 exposure estimates. With
respect to variability, the exposure
modeling approach accounts for
variability in ambient O3 levels,
demographic characteristics,
physiological attributes, activity
patterns, and factors affecting
microenvironmental (e.g., indoor)
concentrations. In EPA’s judgment, the
most important uncertainties affecting
the exposure estimates are related to the
modeling of human activity patterns
over an O3 season, the modeling of
variations in ambient concentrations
near roadways, and the modeling of air
exchange rates that affect the amount of
O3 that penetrates indoors. Another
important uncertainty that affects the
estimation of how many exposures are
associated with moderate or greater
exertion, is the characterization of
energy expenditure for children engaged
in various activities. As discussed in
more detail in the Staff Paper (section
4.3.4.7), the uncertainty in energy
expenditure values carries over to the
uncertainty of the modeled breathing
rates, which are important since they
are used to classify exposures occurring
at moderate or greater exertion which
are the relevant exposures since O3related effects observed in clinical
studies only are observed when
individuals are engaged in some form of
exercise. The uncertainties in the
exposure model inputs and the
estimated exposures have been assessed
using quantitative uncertainty and
sensitivity analyses. Details are
discussed in the Staff Paper (section 4.6)
and in a technical memorandum
describing the exposure modeling
uncertainty analysis (Langstaff, 2007).
b. Scope and Key Components
Population exposures to O3 are
primarily driven by ambient outdoor
concentrations, which vary by time of
day, location, and peoples’ activities.
Outdoor O3 concentration estimates
used in the exposure assessment are
provided by measurements and
statistical adjustments to the measured
concentrations. The current exposure
analysis allows comparisons of
population exposures to O3 within each
urban area, associated with current O3
levels and with O3 levels just meeting
several potential alternative air quality
standards or scenarios. Human
exposure, regardless of the pollutant,
depends on where individuals are
located and what they are doing.
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Inhalation exposure models are useful
in realistically estimating personal
exposures to O3 based on activityspecific breathing rates, particularly
when recognizing that large scale
population exposure measurement
studies have not been conducted that
are representative of the overall
population or at-risk subpopulations.
The model EPA used to simulate O3
population exposure is the Air
Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX), the
human inhalation exposure model
within the Total Risk Integrated
Methodology (TRIM) framework (EPA,
2006c,d). APEX is conceptually based
on the probabilistic NAAQS exposure
model for O3 (pNEM/O3) used in the last
O3 NAAQS review. Since that time, the
model has been restructured, improved,
and expanded to reflect conceptual
advances in the science of exposure
modeling and newer input data
available for the model. Key
improvements to algorithms include
replacement of the cohort approach
with a probabilistic sampling approach
focused on individuals, accounting for
fatigue and oxygen debt after exercise in
the calculation of breathing rates, and a
new approach for construction of
longitudinal activity patterns for
simulated persons. Major improvements
to data input to the model include
updated air exchange rates, more recent
census and commuting data, and a
greatly expanded daily time-activities
database.
APEX is a probabilistic model
designed to explicitly model the
numerous sources of variability that
affect people’s exposures. APEX
simulates the movement of individuals
through time and space and estimates
their exposures to O3 in indoor, outdoor,
and in-vehicle microenvironments. The
exposure model takes into account the
most significant factors contributing to
total human O3 exposure, including the
temporal and spatial distribution of
people and O3 concentrations
throughout an urban area, the variation
of O3 levels within each
microenvironment, and the effects of
exertion on breathing rate in exposed
individuals. A more detailed
description of APEX and its application
is presented in chapter 4 of the Staff
Paper and associated technical
documents (EPA, 2006b, c, d).
Several methods have been used to
evaluate the APEX model and to
characterize the uncertainty of the
model estimates. These include
conducting model evaluation,
sensitivity analyses, and a detailed
uncertainty analysis for one urban area.
These are discussed fully in the Staff
Paper (section 4.6) and in Langstaff
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(2007). The uncertainty of model
structure was judged to be of lesser
importance than the uncertainties of the
model inputs and parameters. Model
structure refers to the algorithms in
APEX designed to simulate the
processes that result in people’s
exposures, for example, the way that
APEX models exposures to individuals
when they are near roads. The
uncertainties in the model input data
(e.g., measurement error, ambient
concentrations, air exchange rates, and
activity pattern data) have been assessed
individually, and their impact on the
uncertainty in the modeled exposure
estimates was assessed in a unified
quantitative analysis with results
expressed in the form of estimated
confidence ranges around the estimated
measures of exposure. This uncertainty
analysis was conducted for one urban
area (Boston) using the observed 2002
O3 concentrations and 2002
concentrations adjusted to simulate just
meeting the current standard, with the
expectation that the results would be
similar for other cities and years. One
significant source of uncertainty, due to
limitations in the database used to
model peoples’ daily activities, was not
included in the unified analysis, and
was assessed through separate
sensitivity analyses. This analysis
indicates that the uncertainty of the
exposure results is relatively small. For
example, 95 percent uncertainty
intervals were calculated for the APEX
estimates of the percent of children or
asthmatic children with exposures
above 0.060, 0.070, or 0.080 ppm under
moderate exertion, for two air quality
scenarios (current 2002 and 2002
adjusted to simulate just meeting the
current standard) in Boston (Tables 26
and 27 in Langstaff, 2007). The 95
percent uncertainty intervals for this set
of 12 exposure estimates indicate the
possibility of underpredictions of the
exposure estimates ranging from 3 to 25
percent of the modeled estimates, and
overpredictions ranging from 4 to 11
percent of the estimates. For example,
APEX estimates the percent of asthmatic
children with exposures above 0.070
ppm under moderate exertion to be 24
percent, for Boston 2002 O3
concentrations adjusted to simulate just
meeting the current standard. The 95
percent uncertainty interval for this
estimate is 23–30 percent, or ¥4 to +25
percent of the estimate. These
uncertainty intervals do not include the
uncertainty engendered by limitations
of the activity database, which is in the
range of one to ten percent.
The exposure periods modeled here
are the O3 seasons in 2002, 2003, and
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2004. The O3 season in each area
includes the period of the year where
elevated O3 levels tend to be observed
and for which routine hourly O3
monitoring data are available. Typically
this period spans from March or April
through September or October, or in
some areas, spanning the entire year.
Three years were modeled to reflect the
substantial year-to-year variability that
occurs in O3 levels and related
meteorological conditions, and because
the standard is specified in terms of a
three-year period. The year-to-year
variability observed in O3 levels is due
to a combination of different weather
patterns and the variation in emissions
of O3 precursors. Nationally, 2002 was
a relatively high year with respect to the
4th highest daily maximum 8-hour O3
levels observed in urban areas across the
U.S. (EPA, 2007, Figure 2–16), with the
mean of the distribution of O3 levels for
the urban monitors being in the upper
third among the years 1990 through
2006. In contrast, on a national basis,
2004 is the lowest year on record
through 2006 for this same air quality
statistic, and 8-hour daily maximum O3
levels observed in most, but not all of
the 12 urban areas included in the
exposure and risk analyses were
relatively low compared to other recent
years. The 4th highest daily maximum
8-hour O3 levels observed in 2003 in the
12 urban areas and nationally generally
were between those observed in 2002
and 2004.
Regulatory scenarios examined
include the current 0.08 ppm, average of
the 4th daily maximum 8-hour averages
over a three year period standard;
standards with the same form but with
alternative levels of 0.080, 0.074, 0.070,
and 0.064 ppm; standards specified as
the average of the 3rd highest daily
maximum 8-hour averages over a three
year period with alternative levels of
0.084 and 0.074 ppm; and a standard
specified as the average of the 5th
highest daily maximum 8-hour averages
over a three year period with a level of
0.074 ppm.30 The current standard uses
a rounding convention that allows areas
to have an average of the 4th daily
maximum 8-hour averages as high as
0.084 ppm and still meet the standard.
All alternative standards analyzed were
intended to reflect improved precision
30 The current O standard is 0.08 ppm, but the
3
current rounding convention specifies that the
average of the 4th daily maximum 8-hour average
concentrations over a three-year period must be at
0.084 ppm or lower to be in attainment of the
standard. When EPA staff selected alternative
standards to analyze, it was presumed that the same
type of rounding convention would be used, and
thus alternative standards of 0.084, 0.074, 0.064
ppm were chosen.
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in the measurement of ambient
concentrations, where the precision
would extend to three instead of two
decimal places (in ppm).
The current standard and all
alternative standards were modeled
using a quadratic rollback approach to
adjust the hourly concentrations
observed in 2002–2004 to yield a design
value 31 corresponding to the standard
being analyzed. The quadratic rollback
technique reduces higher concentrations
more than lower concentrations near
ambient background levels.32 This
procedure was considered in a
sensitivity analysis in the last review of
the O3 standard and has been shown to
be more realistic than a linear,
proportional rollback method, where all
of the ambient concentrations are
reduced by the same factor.
c. Exposure Estimates and Key
Observations
The exposure assessment, which
provides estimates of the number of
people exposed to different levels of
ambient O3 while at specified exertion
levels 33 serve two purposes. First, the
entire range of modeled personal
exposures to ambient O3 is an essential
input to the portion of the health risk
assessment based on exposure-response
functions from controlled human
exposure studies, discussed in the next
section. Second, estimates of personal
exposures to ambient O3 concentrations
at and above specific benchmark levels
provide some perspective on the public
health impacts of health effects that we
cannot currently evaluate in
quantitative risk assessments that may
occur at current air quality levels, and
31 A design value is a statistic that describes the
air quality status of a given area relative to the level
of the NAAQS. Design values are often based on
multiple years of data, consistent with specification
of the NAAQS in Part 50 of the CFR. For the current
O3 NAAQS, the 3-year average of the annual 4thhighest daily maximum 8-hour average
concentrations, based on the monitor within (or
downwind of) an urban area yielding the highest 3year average, is the design value.
32 The quadratic rollback approach and
evaluation of this approach are described by
Johnson (1997), Duff et al. (1998) and Rizzo (2005,
2006).
33 As discussed above in Section II.A., O health
3
responses observed in human clinical studies are
associated with exposures while engaged in
moderate or greater exertion and, therefore, these
are the exposure measures of interest. The level of
exertion of individuals engaged in particular
activities is measured by an equivalent ventilation
rate (EVR), ventilation normalized by body surface
area (BSA, in m2), which is calculated as VE/BSA,
where VE is the ventilation rate (liters/minute).
Moderate and greater exertion levels were defined
as EVR > 13 liters/min-m2 (Whitfield et al., 1996)
to correspond to the exertion levels measured in
most subjects studied in the controlled human
exposure studies that reported health effects
associated with 6.6 hour O3 exposures.
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the extent to which such impacts might
be reduced by meeting the current and
alternative standards. This is especially
true when there are exposure levels at
which we know or can reasonably infer
that specific O3-related health effects are
occurring. We refer to exposures at and
above these benchmark concentrations
as ‘‘exposures of concern.’’
EPA emphasizes that, although the
analysis of ‘‘exposures of concern’’ was
conducted using three discrete
benchmark levels (i.e., 0.080, 0.070, and
0.060 ppm), the concept is more
appropriately viewed as a continuum
with greater confidence and less
uncertainty about the existence of
health effects at the upper end and less
confidence and greater uncertainty as
one considers increasingly lower O3
exposure levels. EPA recognizes that
there is no sharp breakpoint within the
continuum ranging from at and above
0.080 ppm down to 0.060 ppm. In
considering the concept of exposures of
concern, it is important to balance
concerns about the potential for health
effects and their severity with the
increasing uncertainty associated with
our understanding of the likelihood of
such effects at lower O3 levels.
Within the context of this continuum,
estimates of exposures of concern at
discrete benchmark levels provide some
perspective on the public health
impacts of O3-related health effects that
have been demonstrated in human
clinical and toxicological studies but
cannot be evaluated in quantitative risk
assessments, such as lung inflammation,
increased airway responsiveness, and
changes in host defenses. They also help
in understanding the extent to which
such impacts have the potential to be
reduced by meeting the current and
alternative standards. In the selection of
specific benchmark concentrations for
this analysis, we first considered the
exposure level of 0.080 ppm, at which
there is a substantial amount of clinical
evidence demonstrating a range of O3related health effects including lung
inflammation and airway
responsiveness in healthy individuals.
Thus, as in the last review, this level
was selected as a benchmark level for
this assessment of exposures of concern.
Evidence newly available in this review
is the basis for identifying additional,
lower benchmark levels of 0.070 and
0.060 ppm for this assessment.
More specifically, as discussed above
in section II.A.2, evidence available
from controlled human exposure and
epidemiology studies indicates that
people with asthma have larger and
more serious effects than healthy
individuals, including lung function,
respiratory symptoms, increased airway
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responsiveness, and pulmonary
inflammation, which has been shown to
be a more sensitive marker than lung
function responses. Further, a
substantial new body of evidence from
epidemiology studies shows
associations with serious respiratory
morbidity and cardiopulmonary
mortality effects at O3 levels that extend
below 0.080 ppm. Additional, but very
limited new evidence from controlled
human exposure studies shows lung
function decrements and respiratory
symptoms in healthy subjects at an O3
exposure level of 0.060 ppm. The
selected benchmark level of 0.070 ppm
reflects the new information that
asthmatics have larger and more serious
effects than healthy people and
therefore controlled human exposure
studies done with healthy subjects may
underestimate effects in this group, as
well as the substantial body of
epidemiological evidence of
associations with O3 levels below 0.080
ppm. The selected benchmark level of
0.060 ppm additionally reflects the very
limited new evidence from controlled
human exposure studies that show lung
function decrements and respiratory
symptoms in some healthy subjects at
the 0.060 ppm exposure level,
recognizing that asthmatics are likely to
have more serious responses and that
lung function is not likely to be as
sensitive a marker for O3 effects as is
lung inflammation.
The estimates of exposures of concern
were reported in terms of both ‘‘people
exposed’’ (the number and percent of
people who experience a given level of
O3 concentrations, or higher, at least one
time during the O3 season in a given
year) and ‘‘occurrences of exposure’’
(the number of times a given level of
pollution is experienced by the
population of interest, expressed in
terms of person-days of occurrences).
Estimating exposures of concern is
important because it provides some
indication of the potential public health
impacts of a range of O3-related health
outcomes, such as lung inflammation,
increased airway responsiveness, and
changes in host defenses. These
particular health effects have been
demonstrated in controlled human
exposure studies of healthy individuals
to occur at levels as low as 0.080 ppm
O3, but have not been evaluated at lower
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levels in controlled human exposure
studies. EPA has not included these
effects in the quantitative risk
assessment due to a lack of adequate
information on the exposure-response
relationships.
The 1997 O3 NAAQS review
estimated exposures associated with 1hour heavy exertion, 1-hour moderate
exertion, and 8-hour moderate exertion
for children, outdoor workers, and the
general population. EPA’s analysis in
the 1997 Staff Paper showed that
exposure estimates based on the 8-hour
moderate exertion scenario for children
yielded the largest number of children
experiencing exposures at or above
exposures of concern. Consequently,
EPA has chosen to focus on the 8-hour
moderate and greater exertion exposures
in all and asthmatic school age children
in the current exposure assessment.
While outdoor workers and other adults
who engage in moderate or greater
exertion for prolonged durations while
outdoors during the day in areas
experiencing elevated O3 concentrations
also are at risk for experiencing
exposures associated with O3-related
health effects, EPA did not focus on
quantitative estimates for these
populations due to the lack of
information about the number of
individuals who regularly work or
exercise outdoors. Thus, the exposure
estimates presented here and in the Staff
Paper are most useful for making
relative comparisons across alternative
air quality scenarios and do not
represent the total exposures in all
children or other groups within the
general population associated with the
air quality scenarios.
Population exposures to O3 were
estimated in 12 urban areas for 2002,
2003, and 2004 air quality, and also
using O3 concentrations adjusted to just
meet the current and several alternative
standards. The estimates of 8-hour
exposures of concern at and above
benchmark levels of 0.080, 0.070, and
0.060 ppm aggregated across all 12 areas
are shown in Table 1 for air quality
scenarios just meeting the current and
four alternative 8-hour average
standards.34 Table 1 provides estimates
34 The full range of quantitative exposure
estimates associated with just meeting the current
and alternative O3 standards are presented in
chapter 4 and Appendix 4A of the Staff Paper.
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of the number and percent of school age
children and asthmatic school age
children exposed, with daily 8-hour
maximum exposures at or above each O3
benchmark level of exposures of
concern, while at intermittent moderate
or greater exertion and based on O3
concentrations observed in 2002 and
2004. Table 1 summarizes estimates for
2002 and 2004, because these years
reflect years that bracket relatively
higher and lower O3 levels, with year
2003 generally containing O3 levels in
between when considering the 12 urban
areas modeled. This table also reports
the percent change in the number of
persons exposed when a given
alternative standard is compared with
the current standard.
Key observations important in
comparing exposure estimates
associated with just meeting the current
NAAQS and alternative standards under
consideration include:
(1) As shown in Table 6–1 of the Staff
Paper, the patterns of exposure in terms
of percentages of the population
exceeding a given exposure level are
very similar for the general population
and for asthmatic and all school age (5–
18) children, although children are
about twice as likely to be exposed,
based on the percent of the population
exposed, at any given level.
(2) As shown in Table 1 below, the
number and percentage of asthmatic and
all school-age children aggregated across
the 12 urban areas estimated to
experience 1 or more exposures of
concern decline from simulations of just
meeting the current standard to
simulations of alternative 8-hour
standards by varying amounts
depending on the benchmark level, the
population subgroup considered, and
the year chosen. For example, the
estimated percentage of school age
children experiencing one or more
exposures ≥ 0.070 ppm, while engaged
in moderate or greater exertion, during
an O3 season is about 18 percent of this
population when the current standard is
met using the 2002 simulation; this is
reduced to about 12, 4, 1, and 0.2
percent of children upon meeting
alternative standards of 0.080, 0.074,
0.070, and 0.064 ppm, respectively (all
specified in terms of the 4th highest
daily maximum 8-hour average), using
the 2002 simulation.
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TABLE 1.—NUMBER AND PERCENT OF ALL AND ASTHMATIC SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN IN 12 URBAN AREAS ESTIMATED TO
EXPERIENCE 8-HOUR OZONE EXPOSURES ABOVE 0.080, 0.070, AND 0.060 PPM WHILE AT MODERATE OR GREATER
EXERTION, ONE OR MORE TIMES PER SEASON AND THE NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES ASSOCIATED WITH JUST MEETING ALTERNATIVE 8-HOUR STANDARDS BASED ON ADJUSTING 2002 AND 2004 AIR QUALITY DATA1, 2
Benchmark
levels of exposures of concern (ppm)
8-Hour air
quality standards3 (ppm)
0.080 .............
All children, ages 5–18 aggregate for 12 urban areas,
number of children exposed (% of all) [%reduction
from current standard]
Asthmatic children, ages 5–18 Aggregate for 12
urban areas, number of children exposed (% of
group) [% reduction from current standard]
2002
2004
2002
2004
0.084
0.080
0.074
0.070
0.064
700,000 (4%) ...................
290,000 (2%) [70%] ........
60,000 (0%) [91%] ..........
10,000 (0%) [98%] ..........
0 (0%) [100%] .................
30,000 (0%) .....................
10,000 (0%) [67%] ..........
0 (0%) [100%] .................
0 (0%) [100%] .................
0 (0%) [100%] .................
110,000 (4%) ...................
50,000 (2%) [54%] ..........
10,000 (0%) [91%] ..........
0 (0%) [100%] .................
0 (0%) [100%] .................
0
0
0
0
0
0.070 .............
0.084
0.080
0.074
0.070
0.064
3,340,000 (18%) ..............
2,160,000 (12%) [35%] ...
770,000 (4%) [77%] ........
270,000 (1%) [92%] ........
30,000 (0.2%) [99%] .......
260,000 (1%) ...................
100,000 (1%) [62%] ........
20,000 (0%) [92%] ..........
0 (0%) [100%] .................
0 (0%) [100%] .................
520,000 (20%) .................
330,000 (13%) [36%] ......
120,000 (5%) [77%] ........
50,000 (2%) [90%] ..........
10,000 (0.2%) [98% ] ......
40,000 (1%)
10,000 (0%) [75%]
0 (0%) [100%]
0 (0%) [100%]
0 (0%) [100%]
0.060 .............
0.084
0.080
0.074
0.070
0.064
7,970,000 (44%) ..............
6,730,000 (37%) [16%] ...
4,550,000 (25%) [43%] ...
3,000,000 (16%) [62%] ...
950,000 (5%) [88%] ........
1,800,000 (10%) ..............
1,050,000 (6%) [42%] .....
350,000 (2%) [80%] ........
110,000 (1%) [94%] ........
10,000 (0%) [99%] ..........
1,210,000 (47%) ..............
1,020,000 (40%) [16%] ...
700,000 (27%) [42%] ......
460,000 (18%) [62%] ......
150,000 (6%) [88%] ........
270,000 (11%)
150,000 (6%) [44%]
50,000 (2%) [81%]
10,000 (1%) [96%]
0 (0%) [100%]
(0%)
(0%)
(0%)
(0%)
(0%)
or greater exertion is defined as having an 8-hour average equivalent ventilation rate ≥ 13 l-min/m2.
are the aggregate results based on 12 combined statistical areas (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, Sacramento, St. Louis, and Washington, DC). Estimates are for the ozone season which is all year in Houston,
Los Angeles and Sacramento and March or April to September or October for the remaining urban areas.
3 All standards summarized here have the same form as the current 8-hour standard which is specified as the 3-year average of the annual 4th
highest daily maximum 8-hour average concentrations must be at or below the concentration level specified. As described in the Staff Paper
(section 4.5.8), recent O3 air quality distributions have been statistically adjusted to simulate just meeting the current and selected alternative
standards. These simulations do not represent predictions of when, whether, or how areas might meet the specified standards.
1 Moderate
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2 Estimates
(3) Substantial year-to-year variability
in exposure estimates is observed over
the three-year modeling period. For
example, the estimated number of
school age children experiencing one or
more exposures ≥0.070 ppm during an
O3 season when the current standard is
met in the 12 urban areas included in
the analysis is 3.3, 1.0, or 0.3 million for
the 2002, 2003, and 2004 simulations,
respectively.
(4) There is substantial variability
observed across the 12 urban areas in
the percent of the population subgroups
estimated to experience exposures of
concern. For example, when 2002 O3
concentrations are simulated to just
meet the current standard, the aggregate
12 urban area estimate is 18 percent of
all school age children are estimated to
experience O3 exposures (≥0.070 ppm
(Table 1 below), while the range of
exposure estimates in the 12 urban areas
considered separately for all children
range from 1 to 38 percent (EPA, 2007,
Exhibit 2, p. 4–48). There was also
variability in exposure estimates among
the modeled areas when using the 2004
air quality simulation for the same
scenario; however it was reduced and
ranged from 0 to 7 percent in the 12
urban areas (EPA, 2007, Exhibit 8, p. 4–
60).
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(5) Of particular note, as discussed
above in section II.A. of this notice, high
inter-individual variability in
responsiveness means that only a subset
of individuals in these groups who are
exposed at and above a given
benchmark level would actually be
expected to experience such adverse
health effects.
(6) In considering these observations,
it is important to take into account the
variability, uncertainties, and
limitations associated with this
assessment, including the degree of
uncertainty associated with a number of
model inputs and uncertainty in the
model itself, as discussed above.
2. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment
This section discusses the approach
used to develop quantitative health risk
estimates associated with exposures to
O3 building upon a more limited risk
assessment that was conducted during
the last review.35 As part of the last
review, EPA conducted a health risk
assessment that produced risk estimates
for the number and percent of children
35 The methodology, scope, and results from the
risk assessment conducted in the last review are
described in Chapter 6 of the 1996 Staff Paper (EPA,
1996) and in several technical reports (Whitfield et
al., 1996; Whitfield, 1997) and publication
(Whitfield et al., 1998).
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and outdoor workers experiencing lung
function and respiratory symptoms
associated with O3 exposures for 9
urban areas.36 The risk assessment for
the last review also included risk
estimates for excess respiratory-related
hospital admissions related to O3
concentrations for New York City. In the
last review, the risk estimates played a
significant role in both the staff
recommendations and in the proposed
and final decisions to revise the O3
standards. The health risk assessment
conducted for the current review builds
upon the methodology and lessons
learned from the prior review.
a. Overview
The updated health risk assessment
conducted as part of this review
includes estimates of (1) Risks of lung
function decrements in all and
asthmatic school age children,
respiratory symptoms in asthmatic
children, respiratory-related hospital
admissions, and non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory-related mortality
associated with recent ambient O3
levels; (2) risk reductions and remaining
36 The 9 urban study areas included in the
exposure and risk analyses conducted during the
last review were: Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los
Angeles, Miami, New York City, Philadephia, St.
Louis, and Washington, DC.
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risks associated with just meeting the
current 8-hour O3 NAAQS; and (3) risk
reductions and remaining risks
associated with just meeting various
alternative 8-hour O3 NAAQS in a
number of example urban areas. This
risk assessment is more fully described
and presented in the Staff Paper (EPA,
2007, chapter 5) and in a technical
support document (TSD), Ozone Health
Risk Assessment for Selected Urban
Areas (Abt Associates, 2006, hereafter
referred to as ‘‘Risk Assessment TSD’’).
The scope and methodology for this risk
assessment were developed over the last
few years with considerable input from
the CASAC O3 Panel and the public.37
The information contained in these
documents included specific criteria for
the selection of health endpoints,
studies, and locations to include in the
assessment. In a peer review letter sent
by CASAC to the Administrator
documenting its advice in October 2006
(Henderson, 2006c), the CASAC O3
Panel concluded that the risk
assessment was ‘‘well done, balanced,
and reasonably communicated’’ and that
the selection of health endpoints for
inclusion in the quantitative risk
assessment was appropriate.
The goals of the risk assessment are:
(1) To provide estimates of the potential
magnitude of several morbidity effects
and mortality associated with current O3
levels, and with meeting the current and
alternative 8-hour O3 standards in
specific urban areas; (2) to develop a
better understanding of the influence of
various inputs and assumptions on the
risk estimates; and (3) to gain insights
into the distribution of risks and
patterns of risk reductions associated
with meeting alternative O3 standards.
The health risk assessment is intended
to be dependent on and reflect the
overall weight and nature of the health
effects evidence discussed above in
section II.A and in more detail in the
Criteria Document and Staff Paper.
While not independent of the overall
evaluation of the health effects
evidence, the quantitative health risk
assessment provides additional insights
regarding the relative public health
implications associated with just
37 The general approach used in the current risk
assessment was described in the draft Health
Assessment Plan (EPA, 2005a) that was released to
the CASAC and general public in April 2005 and
was the subject of a consultation with the CASAC
O3 Panel on May 5, 2005. In October 2005, OAQPS
released the first draft of the Staff Paper containing
a chapter discussing the risk assessment and first
draft of the Risk Assessment TSD for CASAC
consultation and public review on December 8,
2005. In July 2006, OAQPS released the second
draft of the Staff Paper and second draft of the Risk
Assessment TSD for CASAC review and public
comment which was held by the CASAC O3 Panel
on August 24–25, 2006.
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meeting the current and several
alternative 8-hour standards.
The risk assessment covers a variety
of health effects for which there is
adequate information to develop
quantitative risk estimates. However, as
noted by CASAC (Henderson, 2007) and
in the Staff Paper, there are a number of
health endpoints (e.g., increased lung
inflammation, increased airway
responsiveness, impaired host defenses,
increased medication usage for
asthmatics, increased emergency
department visits for respiratory causes,
and increased school absences) for
which there currently is insufficient
information to develop quantitative risk
estimates, but which are important to
consider in assessing the overall public
health impacts associated with
exposures to O3. These additional health
endpoints are discussed above in
section II.A.2 and are also taken into
account in considering the level of
exposures of concern in populations
particularly at risk, discussed above in
this notice.
There are two parts to the health risk
assessment: one based on combining
information from controlled human
exposure studies with modeled
population exposure and the other
based on combining information from
community epidemiological studies
with either monitored or adjusted
ambient concentrations levels. Both
parts of the risk assessment were
implemented within a new probabilistic
version of TRIM.Risk, the component of
EPA’s Total Risk Integrated
Methodology (TRIM) model framework
that estimates human health risks.
EPA recognizes that there are many
sources of uncertainty and variability in
the inputs to this assessment and that
there is significant variability and
uncertainty in the resulting O3 risk
estimates. As discussed in chapters 2, 5,
and 6 of the Staff Paper, there is
significant year-to-year and city-to-city
variability related to the air quality data
that affects both the controlled human
exposure studies-based and
epidemiological studies-based parts of
the risk assessment. There are also
uncertainties associated with the air
quality adjustment procedure used to
simulate just meeting the current and
selected alternative standards In the
prior review, different statistical
approaches using alternative functional
forms (i.e., quadratic, proportional,
Weibull) were used to reflect how O3 air
quality concentrations have historically
changed. Based on sensitivity analyses
conducted in the prior review, the
choice of alternative air quality
adjustment procedures had only a
modest impact on the risk estimates
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(EPA, 2007, p. 6–20). With respect to
uncertainties about estimated
background concentrations, as
discussed below and in the Staff Paper
(EPA 2007b, section 5.4.3), alternative
assumptions about background levels
have a variable impact depending on the
location, standard, and health endpoint
analyzed.
With respect to the lung function part
of the health risk assessment, key
uncertainties include uncertainties in
the exposure estimates, discussed
above, and uncertainties associated with
the shape of the exposure-response
relationship, especially at levels below
0.08 ppm, 8-hour average, where only
very limited data are available down to
0.04 ppm and there is an absence of data
below 0.04 ppm (EPA, 2007, pp. 6–20—
6–21). Concerning the part of the risk
assessment based on effects reported in
epidemiological studies, important
uncertainties include uncertainties (1)
Surrounding estimates of the O3
coefficients for concentration-response
relationships used in the assessment, (2)
involving the shape of the
concentration-response relationship and
whether or not a population threshold
or non-linear relationship exists within
the range of concentrations examined in
the studies, (3) related to the extent to
which concentration-response
relationships derived from studies in a
given location and time when O3 levels
were higher or behavior and /or housing
conditions were different provide
accurate representations of the
relationships for the same locations
with lower air quality distributions and/
or different behavior and/or housing
conditions, and (4) concerning the
possible role of co-pollutants which also
may have varied between the time of the
studies and the current assessment
period. An important additional
uncertainty for the mortality risk
estimates is the extent to which the
associations reported between O3 and
non-accidental and cardiorespiratory
mortality actually reflect causal
relationships.
As discussed below, some of these
uncertainties have been addressed
quantitatively in the form of estimated
confidence ranges around central risk
estimates; others are addressed through
separate sensitivity analyses (e.g., the
influence of alternative estimates for
policy-relevant background levels) or
are characterized qualitatively. For both
parts of the health risk assessment,
statistical uncertainty due to sampling
error has been characterized and is
expressed in terms of 95 percent
credible intervals. EPA recognizes that
these credible intervals do not reflect all
of the uncertainties noted above.
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b. Scope and Key Components
The current health risk assessment is
based on the information evaluated in
the final Criteria Document. The risk
assessment includes several categories
of health effects and estimates risks
associated with just meeting the current
and alternative 8-hour O3 NAAQS and
with several individual recent years of
air quality (i.e., 2002, 2003, and 2004).
The risk assessment considers the same
alternative air quality scenarios that
were examined in the human exposure
analyses described above. Risk estimates
were developed for up to 12 urban areas
selected to illustrate the public health
impacts associated with these air quality
scenarios.38 As discussed above in
section II.B.1, the selection of urban
areas was largely determined by
identifying areas in the U.S. which
represented a range of geographic areas,
population demographics, and
climatology; with an emphasis on areas
that do not meet the current 8-hour O3
NAAQS and which included the largest
areas with O3 nonattainment problems.
The selection criteria also included
whether or not there were acceptable
epidemiological studies available that
reported concentration-response
relationships for the health endpoints
selected for inclusion in the assessment.
The short-term exposure related
health endpoints selected for inclusion
in the quantitative risk assessment
include those for which the final
Criteria Document and or Staff Paper
concluded that the evidence as a whole
supports the general conclusion that O3,
acting alone and/or in combination with
other components in the ambient air
pollution mix, is either clearly causal or
is judged to be likely causal. Some
health effects met this criterion of likely
causality, but were not included in the
risk assessment for other reasons, such
as insufficient exposure-response data
or lack of baseline incidence data.
As discussed in the section above
describing the exposure analysis, in
order to estimate the health risks
associated with just meeting the current
and alternative 8-hour O3 NAAQS, it is
necessary to estimate the distribution of
hourly O3 concentrations that would
occur under any given standard. Since
compliance is based on a 3-year average,
the amount of control has been applied
to each year of data (i.e., 2002 to 2004)
38 The 12 urban areas are the same urban areas
evaluated in the exposure analysis discussed in the
prior section. However, for most of the health
endpoints based on findings from epidemiological
studies, the geographic areas and populations
examined in the health risk assessment were
limited to those counties included in the original
epidemiological studies that served as the basis for
the concentration-response relationships.
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to estimate risks for a single O3 season
or single warm O3 season, depending on
the health effect, based on a simulation
that adjusted each of these individual
years so that the three year period
would just meet the specified standard.
Consistent with the risk assessment
approach used in the last review, the
risk estimates developed for both recent
air quality levels and just meeting the
current and selected alternative 8-hour
standards represent risks associated
with O3 levels attributable to
anthropogenic sources and activities
(i.e., risk associated with concentrations
above ‘‘policy-relevant background’’).
Policy-relevant background O3
concentrations used in the O3 risk
assessment were defined in chapter 2 of
the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007, pp. 2–48—
2–55) as the O3 concentrations that
would be observed in the U.S. in the
absence of anthropogenic emissions of
precursors (e.g., VOC, NOX, and CO) in
the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The
results of a global tropospheric O3
model (GEOS–CHEM) have been used to
estimate monthly background daily
diurnal profiles for each of the 12 urban
areas for each month of the O3 season
using meteorology for the year 2001.
Based on the results of the GEOS–CHEM
model, the Criteria Document indicates
that background O3 concentrations are
generally predicted to be in the range of
0.015 to 0.035 ppm in the afternoon,
and they are generally lower under
conditions conducive to man-made O3
episodes.39
This approach of estimating risks in
excess of background is judged to be
more relevant to policy decisions
regarding ambient air quality standards
than risk estimates that include effects
potentially attributable to
uncontrollable background O3
concentrations. Sensitivity analyses
examining the impact of alternative
estimates for background on lung
function and mortality risk estimates
have been developed and are included
in the Staff Paper and Risk Assessment
TSD and key observations are discussed
below. Further, CASAC noted the
difficulties and complexities associated
with available approaches to estimating
policy-relevant background
concentrations (Henderson, 2007).
Recognizing these complexities, EPA
requests comments on the new
approach used in this review for
39 EPA notes that the estimated level of policyrelevant background O3 used in the prior risk
assessment was a single concentration of 0.04 ppm,
which was the midpoint of the range of levels for
policy-relevant background that was provided in
the 1996 Criteria Document.
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37857
estimating these levels as an input to the
health risk assessment.40
In the first part of the current risk
assessment, lung function decrement, as
measured by FEV1, is the only health
response that is based on data from
controlled human exposure studies. As
discussed above, there is clear evidence
of a causal relationship between lung
function decrements and O3 exposures
for school age children engaged in
moderate exertion based on numerous
controlled human exposure and summer
camp field studies conducted by various
investigators. Risk estimates have been
developed for O3-related lung function
decrements (measured as changes in
FEV1) for all school age children (ages
5 to 18) and a subset of this group,
asthmatic school age children (ages 5 to
18), whose average exertion over an 8hour period was moderate or greater.
The exposure period and exertion level
were chosen to generally match the
exposure period and exertion level used
in the controlled human exposure
studies that were the basis for the
exposure-response relationships. A
combined data set including individual
level data from the Folinsbee et al.
(1988), Horstman et al. (1990), and
McDonnell et al. (1991) studies, used in
the previous risk assessment, and more
recent data from Adams (2002, 2003,
2006) have been used to estimate
probabilistic exposure-response
relationships for 8-hour exposures
under different definitions of lung
function response (i.e., ≥10, 15, and 20
percent decrements in FEV1). As
discussed in the Staff Paper (EPA, 2007,
p. 5–27), while these specific controlled
human exposure studies only included
healthy adults aged 18–35, findings
from other controlled human exposure
studies and summer camp field studies
involving school age children in at least
six different locations in the
northeastern United States, Canada, and
Southern California indicated changes
in lung function in healthy children
similar to those observed in healthy
adults exposed to O3 under controlled
chamber conditions.
Consistent with advice from CASAC
(Henderson, 2006c), EPA has considered
both linear and logistic functional forms
in estimating the probabilistic exposureresponse relationships for lung function
responses. A Bayesian Markov Chain
Monte Carlo approach, described in
more detail in the Risk Assessment TSD,
has been used that incorporates both
model uncertainty and uncertainty due
40 Recognizing the importance of this issue, EPA
intends to conduct additional sensitivity analyses
related to policy-relevant background and its
implications for the risk assessment.
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to sample size in the combined data set
that served as the basis for the
assessment. EPA has chosen a model
reflecting a 90 percent weighting on a
logistic form and a 10 percent weighting
on a linear form as the base case for the
current risk assessment. The basis for
this choice is that the logistic form
provides a very good fit to the combined
data set, but a linear model cannot be
entirely ruled out since there are only
very limited data (i.e., 30 subjects) at the
two lowest exposure levels (i.e., 0.040
and 0.060 ppm). EPA has conducted a
sensitivity analysis which examines the
impact on the lung function risk
estimates of two alternative choices, an
80 percent logistic/20 percent linear
split and a 50 percent logistic/50
percent linear split.
As noted above, risk estimates have
been developed for three measures of
lung function response (i.e., ≥10, 15, and
20 percent decrements in FEV1).
However, the Staff Paper and risk
estimates summarized below focus on
FEV1 decrements ≥15 percent for all
school age children and ≥10 percent for
asthmatic school age children,
consistent with the advice from CASAC
(Henderson, 2006c) that these levels of
response represent indicators of adverse
health effects in these populations. The
Risk Assessment TSD and Staff Paper
present the broader range of risk
estimates including all three measures
of lung function response.
Developing risk estimates for lung
function decrements involved
combining probabilistic exposureresponse relationships based on the
combined data set from several
controlled human exposure studies with
population exposure distributions for all
and asthmatic school age children
associated with recent air quality and
air quality simulated to just meet the
current and alternative 8-hour O3
NAAQS based on the results from the
exposure analysis described in the
previous section. The risk estimates
have been developed for 12 large urban
areas for the O3 season.41 These 12
urban areas include approximately 18.3
million school age children, of which
2.6 million are asthmatic school age
children.42
In addition to uncertainties arising
from sample size considerations, which
41 As discussed above in section II.B.1, the urban
areas were defined using the consolidated statistical
areas definition and the total population residing in
the 12 urban areas was approximately 88.5 million
people.
42 For 9 of the 12 urban areas, the O season is
3
defined as a period running from March or April
to September or October. In 3 of the urban areas
(Houston, Los Angeles, and Sacramento), the O3
season is defined as the entire year.
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are quantitatively characterized and
presented as 95 percentile credible
intervals, there are additional
uncertainties and caveats associated
with the lung function risk estimates.
These include uncertainties about the
shape of the exposure-response
relationship, particularly at levels below
0.080 ppm, and about policy-relevant
background levels, for which sensitivity
analyses have been conducted.
Additional important caveats and
uncertainties concerning the lung
function portion of the health risk
assessment include: (1) The
uncertainties and limitations associated
with the exposure estimates discussed
above and (2) the inability to account for
some factors which are known to affect
the exposure-response relationships
(e.g., assigning healthy and asthmatic
children the same responses as observed
in healthy adult subjects and not
adjusting response rates to reflect the
increase and attenuation of responses
that have been observed in studies of
lung function responses upon repeated
exposures). A more complete discussion
of assumptions and uncertainties is
contained in chapter 5 of the Staff Paper
and in the Risk Assessment TSD (Abt
Associates, 2006).
The second part of the risk assessment
is based on health effects observed in
epidemiological studies. Based on a
review of the evidence evaluated in the
Criteria Document and Staff Paper, as
well as the criteria discussed in chapter
5 of the Staff Paper, the following
categories of health endpoints
associated with short-term exposures to
ambient O3 concentrations were
included in the risk assessment:
respiratory symptoms in moderate to
severe asthmatic children, hospital
admissions for respiratory causes, and
non-accidental and cardiorespiratory
mortality. As discussed above, there is
strong evidence of a causal relationship
for the respiratory morbidity endpoints
included in the current risk assessment.
With respect to nonaccidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality, the Criteria
Document concludes that there is strong
evidence which is highly suggestive of
a causal relationship between
nonaccidental and cardiorespiratoryrelated mortality and O3 exposures
during the warm O3 season. As
discussed in the Staff Paper (chapter 5),
EPA also recognizes that for some of the
effects observed in epidemiological
studies, such as increased respiratoryrelated hospital admissions and
nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory
mortality, O3 may be serving as an
indicator for reactive oxidant species in
the overall photochemical oxidant mix
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and that these other constituents may be
responsible in whole or part for the
observed effects.
Risk estimates for each health
endpoint category were only developed
for areas that were the same or close to
the location where at least one
concentration-response function for the
health endpoint had been estimated.43
Thus, for respiratory symptoms in
moderate to severe asthmatic children
only the Boston urban area was
included and four urban areas were
included for respiratory-related hospital
admissions. Nonaccidental mortality
risk estimates were developed for 12
urban areas and 8 urban areas were
included for cardiorespiratory mortality.
The concentration-response
relationships used in the assessment are
based on findings from human
epidemiological studies that have relied
on fixed-site ambient monitors as a
surrogate for actual ambient O3
exposures. In order to estimate the
incidence of a particular health effect
associated with recent air quality in a
specific county or set of counties
attributable to ambient O3 exposures in
excess of background, as well as the
change in incidence corresponding to a
given change in O3 levels resulting from
just meeting the current or alternative 8hour O3 standards, three elements are
required for this part of the risk
assessment. These elements are: (1) Air
quality information (including recent air
quality data for O3 from ambient
monitors for the selected location,
estimates of background O3
concentrations appropriate for that
location, and a method for adjusting the
recent data to reflect patterns of air
quality estimated to occur when the area
just meets a given O3 standard); (2)
relative risk-based concentrationresponse functions that provide an
estimate of the relationship between the
health endpoints of interest and ambient
O3 concentration; and (3) annual or
seasonal baseline health effects
incidence rates and population data,
which are needed to provide an estimate
of the seasonal baseline incidence of
health effects in an area before any
changes in O3 air quality.
A key component in the portion of the
risk assessment based on
epidemiological studies is the set of
concentration-response functions which
provide estimates of the relationships
43 The geographic boundaries for the urban areas
included in this portion of the risk assessment were
generally matched to the geographic boundaries
used in the epidemiological studies that served as
the basis for the concentration-response functions.
In most cases, the urban areas were defined as
either a single county or a few counties for this
portion of the risk assessment.
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between each health endpoint of
interest and changes in ambient O3
concentrations. Studies often report
more than one estimated concentrationresponse function for the same location
and health endpoint. Sometimes models
include different sets of co-pollutants
and/or different lag periods between the
ambient concentrations and reported
health responses. For some health
endpoints, there are studies that
estimated multi-city and single-city O3
concentration-response functions. While
the Risk Assessment TSD and chapter 5
of the Staff Paper present a more
comprehensive set of risk estimates,
EPA has focused on estimates based on
multi-city studies where available. The
advantages of relying more heavily on
concentration-response functions based
on multi-city studies include: (1) More
precise effect estimates due to larger
data sets, reducing the uncertainty
around the estimated coefficient; (2)
greater consistency in data handling and
model specification that can eliminate
city-to-city variation due to study
design; and (3) less likelihood of
publication bias or exclusion of
reporting of negative or nonsignificant
findings. Where studies reported
different effect estimates for varying lag
periods, consistent with the Criteria
Document, single day lag periods of 0 to
1 days were used for associations with
respiratory hospital admissions and
mortality. For mortality associated with
exposure to O3 which may result over a
several day period after exposure,
distributed lag models, which take into
account the contribution to mortality
effects over several days, were used
where available.
One of the most important elements
affecting uncertainties in the
epidemiological-based portion of the
risk assessment is the concentrationresponse relationships used in the
assessment. The uncertainty resulting
from the statistical uncertainty
associated with the estimate of the O3
coefficient in the concentrationresponse function was characterized
either by confidence intervals or by
Bayesian credible intervals around the
corresponding point estimates of risk.
Confidence and credible intervals
express the range within which the true
risk is likely to fall if the only
uncertainty surrounding the O3
coefficient involved sampling error.
Other uncertainties, such as differences
in study location, time period (i.e., the
years in which the study was
conducted), and model uncertainties are
not represented by the confidence or
credible intervals presented, but were
addressed by presenting estimates for
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different urban areas, by including risk
estimates based on studies using
different time periods and models,
where available, and/or are discussed
throughout section 5.3 of the Staff
Paper. Because O3 effects observed in
the epidemiological studies have been
more clearly and consistently shown for
warm season analyses, all analyses for
this portion of the risk assessment were
carried out for the same time period,
April through September.
The Criteria Document finds that no
definitive conclusion can be reached
with regard to the existence of
population thresholds in
epidemiological studies (Criteria
Document, pp. 8–44). EPA recognizes,
however, the possibility that thresholds
for individuals may exist for reported
associations at fairly low levels within
the range of air quality observed in the
studies, but not be detectable as
population thresholds in
epidemiological analyses. Based on the
Criteria Document’s conclusions, EPA
judged and CASAC concurred, that
there is insufficient evidence to support
use of potential population threshold
levels in the quantitative risk
assessment. However, EPA recognizes
that there is increasing uncertainty
about the concentration-response
relationship at lower concentrations
which is not captured by the
characterization of the statistical
uncertainty due to sampling error.
Therefore, the risk estimates for
respiratory symptoms in moderate to
severe asthmatic children, respiratoryrelated hospital admissions, and
premature mortality associated with
exposure to O3 must be considered in
light of uncertainties about whether or
not these O3-related effects occur in
these populations at very low O3
concentrations.
With respect to variability within this
portion of the risk assessment, there is
variability among concentrationresponse functions describing the
relation between O3 and both
respiratory-related hospital admissions
and nonaccidental and cardiorespiratory
mortality across urban areas. This
variability is likely due to differences in
population (e.g., age distribution),
population activities that affect
exposure to O3 (e.g., use of air
conditioning), levels and composition of
co-pollutants, baseline incidence rates,
and/or other factors that vary across
urban areas. The current risk assessment
incorporates some of the variability in
key inputs to the analysis by using
location-specific inputs (e.g., locationspecific concentration-response
functions, baseline incidence rates, and
air quality data). Although spatial
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variability in these key inputs across all
U.S. locations has not been fully
characterized, variability across the
selected locations is imbedded in the
analysis by using, to the extent possible,
inputs specific to each urban area.
c. Risk Estimates and Key Observations
The Staff Paper (chapter 5) and Risk
Assessment TSD present risk estimates
associated with just meeting the current
and several alternative 8-hour
standards, as well as three recent years
of air quality as represented by 2002,
2003, and 2004 monitoring data. As
discussed in the exposure analysis
section above, there is considerable cityto-city and year-to-year variability in the
O3 levels during this period, which
results in significant variability in both
portions of the health risk assessment.
In the 1997 risk assessment, risks for
lung function decrements associated
with 1-hour heavy exertion, 1-hour
moderate exertion, and 8-hour moderate
exertion exposures were estimated.
Since the 8-hour moderate exertion
exposure scenario for children clearly
resulted in the greatest health risks in
terms of lung function decrements, EPA
has chosen to include only the 8-hour
moderate exertion exposures in the
current risk assessment for this health
endpoint. Thus, the risk estimates
presented here and in the Staff Paper are
most useful for making relative
comparisons across alternative air
quality scenarios and do not represent
the total risks for lung function
decrements in children or other groups
within the general population
associated with any of the air quality
scenarios. Thus, some outdoor workers
and adults engaged in moderate exertion
over multi-hour periods (e.g., 6–8-hour
exposures) also would be expected to
experience similar lung function
decrements. However, the percentage of
each of these other subpopulations
expected to experience these effects is
expected to be smaller than all school
age children who tend to spend more
hours outdoors while active based on
the exposure analyses conducted during
the prior review.
Table 2 presents a summary of the
risk estimates for lung function
decrements for the current standard and
several alternative 8-hour standard
levels with the same form as the current
8-hour standard. The estimates are for
the aggregate number and percent of all
school age children across 12 urban
areas and the aggregate number and
percent of asthmatic school age children
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across 5 urban areas 44 who are
estimated to have at least 1 moderate or
greater lung function response (defined
as FEV1 ≥15 percent in all children and
≥10 percent in asthmatic children)
associated with 8-hour exposures to O3
while engaged in moderate or greater
exertion on average over the 8-hour
period. The lung function risk estimates
summarized in Table 2 illustrate the
year-to-year variability in both
remaining risk associated with a
relatively high year (i.e., based on
adjusting 2002 O3 air quality data) and
relatively low year (based on adjusting
2004 O3 air quality data) as well as the
year-to-year variability in the risk
reduction estimated to occur associated
with various alternative standards
relative to just meeting the current
standard. For example, it is estimated
that about 610,000 school age children
(3.2 percent of school age children)
would experience 1 or more moderate
lung function decrements for the 12
urban areas associated with O3 levels
just meeting the current standard based
on 2002 air quality data compared to
230,000 (1.2 percent of children)
associated with just meeting the current
standard based on 2004 air quality data.
TABLE 2.—NUMBER AND PERCENT OF ALL AND ASTHMATIC SCHOOL AGE CHILDREN IN SEVERAL URBAN AREAS ESTIMATED TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE OR GREATER LUNG FUNCTION RESPONSES 1 OR MORE TIMES PER SEASON ASSOCIATED WITH 8-HOUR OZONE EXPOSURES ASSOCIATED WITH JUST MEETING ALTERNATIVE 8-HOUR STANDARDS
BASED ON ADJUSTING 2002 AND 2004 AIR QUALITY DATA 1, 2
All children, ages 5–18, FEV1 ≥15 percent, aggregate
for 12 urban areas, number of children affected (% of
all) [% reduction from current standard]
8-Hour air quality standards 3
Asthmatic children, ages 5–18, FEV1 ≥10 percent, aggregate for 5 urban areas, number of children affected
(% of group) [% reduction from current standard]
2002
0.084 ppm (Current standard).
0.080 ppm .........................
0.074 ppm .........................
0.070 ppm .........................
0.064 ppm .........................
2004
2002
610,000 (3.3%) .................
230,000 (1.2%) .................
130,000 (7.8%) .................
70,000 (4.2%).
490,000 (2.7%)
duction].
340,000 (1.9%)
duction].
260,000 (1.5%)
duction].
180,000 (1.0%)
duction].
180,000 (1.0%) [22% reduction].
130,000 (0.7%) [43% reduction].
100,000 (0.5%) [57% reduction].
70,000 (0.4%) [70% reduction].
NA 4 ...................................
NA.
90,000 (5.0%) [31 % reduction].
NA .....................................
40,000 (2.7%) [43% reduction].
NA.
50,000 (3.0%) [62% reduction].
20,000 (1.5%) [71% reduction].
[20% re[44% re[57% re[70% re-
2004]
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1 Associated with exposures while engaged in moderate or greater exertion which is defined as having an 8-hour average equivalent ventilation
rate ≥13 l-min/m 2.
2 Estimates are the aggregate central tendency results based on either 12 urban areas (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston,
Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, Sacramento, St. Louis, and Washington, DC) or 5 urban areas (Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles,
New York). Estimates are for the O3 season which is all year in Houston, Los Angeles and Sacramento and March or April to September or October for the remaining urban areas.
3 All standards summarized here have the same form as the current 8-hour standard which is specified as the 3-year average of the annual 4th
highest daily maximum 8-hour average concentrations must be at or below the stated concentration level. As described in the Staff Paper (section 4.5.8), recent O3 air quality distributions have been statistically adjusted to simulate just meeting the current and selected alternative standards. These simulations do not represent predictions of when, whether, or how areas might meet the specified standards
4 NA (not available) indicates that EPA did not develop risk estimates for these scenarios for the asthmatic school age children population.
As discussed in the Staff Paper, a
child may experience multiple
occurrences of a lung function response
during the O3 season. For example,
upon meeting the current 8-hour
standard, the median estimates are that
about 610,000 children would
experience a moderate or greater lung
function response 1 or more times for
the aggregate of the 12 urban areas over
a single O3 season (based on the 2002
simulation), and that there would be
almost 3.2 million total occurrences.
Thus, on average it is estimated that
there would be about 5 occurrences per
O3 season per responding child for air
quality just meeting the current 8-hour
standard across the 12 urban areas.
While the estimated number of
occurrences per O3 season is lower
when based on the 2004 simulation than
for the 2002 simulation, the estimated
number of occurrences per responding
child is similar. EPA recognizes that
some children in the population might
have only 1 or 2 occurrences while
others may have 6 or more occurrences
per O3 season. Risk estimates based on
adjusting 2003 air quality to simulate
just meeting the current and alternative
8-hour standards are intermediate to the
estimates presented in Table 2 above in
this notice and are presented in the Staff
Paper (chapter 5) and Risk Assessment
TSD.
For just meeting the current 8-hour
standard, Table 5–8 in the Staff Paper
shows that median estimates across the
12 urban areas for all school age
children experiencing 1 or more
moderate lung function decrements
ranges from 0.9 to 5.4 percent based on
the 2002 simulation and from 0.8 to 2.2
percent based on the 2004 simulation.
Risk estimates for each urban area
included in the assessment, for each of
the three years analyzed, and for
additional alternative standards are
presented in chapter 5 of the Staff Paper
and in the Risk Assessment TSD.
For just meeting the current 8-hour
standard, the median estimates across
the 5 urban areas for asthmatic school
age children range from 3.4 to 10.9
percent based on the 2002 simulation
and from 3.2 to 6.9 percent based on the
2004 simulation.
Key observations important in
comparing estimated lung function risks
associated with attainment of the
current NAAQS and alternative
standards under consideration include:
(1) As discussed above, there is
significant year to year variability in the
range of median estimates of the number
of school age children (ages 5–18)
estimated to experience at least one
FEV1 decrement ≥15 percent due to 8hour O3 exposures across the 12 urban
44 Due to time constraints, lung function risk
estimates for asthmatic school age children were
developed for only 5 of the 12 urban areas, and the
areas were selected to represent different
geographic regions. The 5 areas were: Atlanta,
Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York City.
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areas analyzed, and similarly across the
5 urban areas analyzed for asthmatic
school age children (ages 5–18)
estimated to experience at least one
FEV1 decrement ≥10 percent, when the
current and alternative 8-hour standards
are just met.
(2) For asthmatic school age children,
the median estimates of occurrences of
FEV1 decrements ≥10% range from
52,000 to nearly 510,000 responses
associated with just meeting the current
standard (based on the 2002 simulation)
and range from 61,000 to about 240,000
occurrences (based on the 2004
simulation). These risk estimates would
be reduced to a range of 14,000 to about
275,000 occurrences (2002 simulation)
and to about 18,000 to nearly 125,000
occurrences (2004 simulation) upon just
meeting the most stringent alternative 8hour standard (0.064 ppm, 4th highest).
The average number of occurrences per
asthmatic child in an O3 season ranged
from about 6 to 11 associated with just
meeting the current standard (2002
simulation). The average number of
occurrences per asthmatic child ranged
from 4 to 12 upon meeting the most
stringent alternative examined (0.064
ppm, 4th-highest) based on the 2002
simulation. The number of occurrences
per asthmatic child is similar for the
scenarios based on the 2004 simulation.
As discussed above, several
epidemiological studies have reported
increased respiratory morbidity
outcomes (e.g., respiratory symptoms in
moderate to severe asthmatic children,
respiratory-related hospital admissions)
and increased nonaccidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality associated
with exposure to ambient O3
concentrations. The results and key
observations from this portion of the
risk assessment are presented below:
(1) Estimates for increased respiratory
symptoms (i.e., chest tightness,
shortness of breath, and wheeze) in
moderate/severe asthmatic children
(ages 0–12) were developed for the
Boston urban area only. The median
estimated number of days involving
chest tightness (using the concentrationresponse relationship with only O3 in
the model) is about 6,100 (based on the
2002 simulation) and about 4,500 (based
on the 2004 simulation) upon meeting
the current 8-hour standard and this is
reduced to about 4,600 days (2002
simulation) and 3,100 days (2004
simulation) upon meeting the most
stringent alternative examined (0.064
ppm, 4th-highest daily maximum 8hour average). This corresponds to 11
percent (2002 simulation) and 8 percent
(2004 simulation) of total incidence of
chest tightness upon meeting the
current 8-hour standard and to about 8
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percent (2002 simulation) and 5.5
percent (2004 simulation) of total
incidence of chest tightness upon
meeting a 0.064 ppm, 4th-highest daily
maximum 8-hour average standard.
Similar patterns of effects and
reductions in effects are observed for
each of the respiratory symptoms
examined.
(2) The Staff Paper and Risk
Assessment TSD present unscheduled
hospital admission risk estimates for
respiratory illness and asthma in New
York City associated with short-term
exposures to O3 concentrations in
excess of background levels from April
through September for several recent
years (2002, 2003, and 2004) and upon
just meeting the current and alternative
8-hour standards based on simulating
O3 levels using 2002–2004 O3 air quality
data. For total respiratory illness, EPA
estimates about 6.4 cases per 100,000
relevant population (2002 simulation)
and about 4.6 cases per 100,000 relevant
population (2004 simulation), which
represents 1.5 percent (2002 simulation)
and 1.0 percent (2004 simulation) of
total incidence or about 510 cases (2002
simulation) and about 370 cases (2004
simulation) upon just meeting the
current 8-hour standard. For asthmarelated hospital admissions, which are a
subset of total respiratory illness
admissions, the estimates are about 5.5
cases per 100,000 relevant population
(2002 simulation) and about 3.9 cases
per 100,000 relevant population (2004
simulation), which represents about 3.3
percent (2002 simulation) and 2.4
percent (2004 simulation) of total
incidence or about 440 cases (2002) and
about 310 cases (2004) for this same air
quality scenario.
For increasingly more stringent
alternative 8-hour standards, there is a
gradual reduction in respiratory illness
cases per 100,000 relevant population
from 6.4 cases per 100,000 upon just
meeting the current 8-hour standard to
4.6 cases per 100,000 under the most
stringent 8-hour standard (i.e., 0.064
ppm, average 4th-highest daily
maximum) analyzed based on the 2002
simulation. Similarly, based on the 2004
simulation there is a gradual reduction
from 4.6 cases per 100,000 relevant
population upon just meeting the
current 8-hour standard to 3.0 cases per
100,000 under the 0.064 ppm, average
4th-highest daily maximum standard.
Additional respiratory-related
hospital admission estimates for three
other locations are provided in the Risk
Assessment TSD. EPA notes that the
concentration-response functions for
each of these locations examined
different outcomes in different age
groups (e.g., > age 30 in Los Angeles,
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> age 64 in Cleveland and Detroit, vs. all
ages in New York City), making
comparison of the risk estimates across
the areas very difficult.
(3) Based on the median estimates for
incidence for nonaccidental mortality
(based on the Bell et al. (2004) 95 cities
concentration-response function),
meeting the most stringent standard
(0.064 ppm) is estimated to reduce
mortality by 40 percent of what it would
be associated with just meeting the
current standard (based on the 2002
simulation). The patterns for
cardiorespiratory mortality are similar.
The aggregate O3-related
cardiorespiratory mortality upon just
meeting the most stringent standard
shown is estimated to be about 42
percent of what it would be upon just
meeting the current standard, using
simulated O3 concentrations that just
meet the current and alternative 8-hour
standards based on the 2002 simulation.
Using the 2004 simulation, the
corresponding reductions show a
similar pattern but are somewhat
greater.
(4) Much of the contribution to the
risk estimates for non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality upon just
meeting the current 8-hour standard is
associated with 24-hour O3
concentrations between background and
0.040 ppm. Based on examining
relationships between 24-hour
concentrations averaged across the
monitors within an urban area and 8hour daily maximum concentrations, 8hour daily maximum levels at the
highest monitor in an urban area
associated with these averaged 24-hour
levels are generally about twice as high
as the 24-hour levels. Thus, most O3related nonaccidental mortality is
estimated to occur when O3
concentrations are between background
and when the highest monitor in the
urban area is at or below 0.080 ppm, 8hour average concentration.
The discussion below highlights
additional observations and insights
from the O3 risk assessment, together
with important uncertainties and
limitations.
(1) As discussed in the Staff Paper
(section 5.4.5) EPA has greater
confidence in relative comparisons in
risk estimates between alternative
standards than in the absolute
magnitude of risk estimates associated
with any particular standard.
(2) Significant year-to-year variability
in O3 concentrations combined with the
use of a 3-year design value to
determine the amount of air quality
adjustment to be applied to each year
analyzed, results in significant year-toyear variability in the annual health risk
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estimates upon just meeting the current
and potential alternative 8-hour
standards.
(3) There is noticeable city-to-city
variability in estimated O3-related
incidence of morbidity and mortality
across the 12 urban areas analyzed for
both recent years of air quality and for
air quality adjusted to simulate just
meeting the current and selected
potential alternative standards. This
variability is likely due to differences in
air quality distributions, differences in
exposure related to many factors
including varying activity patterns and
air exchange rates, differences in
baseline incidence rates, and differences
in susceptible populations and age
distributions across the 12 urban areas.
(4) With respect to the uncertainties
about estimated policy-relevant
background concentrations, as
discussed in the Staff Paper (section
5.4.3), alternative assumptions about
background levels had a variable impact
depending on the health effect
considered and the location and
standard analyzed in terms of the
absolute magnitude and relative changes
in the risk estimates. There was
relatively little impact on either
absolute magnitude or relative changes
in lung function risk estimates due to
alternative assumptions about
background levels. With respect to O3related non-accidental mortality, while
notable differences (i.e., greater than 50
percent)45 were observed for
nonaccidental mortality in some areas,
particularly for more stringent
standards, the overall pattern of
estimated reductions, expressed in
terms of percentage reduction relative to
the current standard, was significantly
less impacted.
C. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the
Current Primary Standard
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1. Background
The initial issue to be addressed in
the current review of the primary O3
standard is whether, in view of the
advances in scientific knowledge and
additional information, the existing
standard should be revised. In
evaluating whether it is appropriate to
retain or revise the current standard, the
Administrator builds upon the last
review and reflects the broader body of
evidence and information now
45 For example, assuming lower background
levels resulted in increased estimates of nonaccidental mortality incidence per 100,000 that
were often 50 to 100 percent greater than the base
case estimates; assuming higher background levels
resulted in decreased estimates of non-accidental
mortality incidence per 100,000 that were less than
the base case estimates by 50 percent or more in
many of the areas.
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available. The Administrator has taken
into account both evidence-based and
quantitative exposure- and risk-based
considerations in developing
conclusions on the adequacy of the
current primary O3 standard. Evidencebased considerations include the
assessment of evidence from controlled
human exposure, animal toxicological,
field, and epidemiological studies for a
variety of health endpoints. For those
endpoints based on epidemiological
studies, greater weight has been placed
on associations with health endpoints
that are causal or likely causal based on
an integrative synthesis of the entire
body of evidence, including not only all
available epidemiological evidence but
also evidence from animal toxicological
and controlled human exposure studies.
Less weight has been placed on
evidence of associations that were
judged to be only suggestive of possible
causal relationships. Consideration of
quantitative exposure- and risk-based
information draws from the results of
the exposure and risk assessments
described above. More specifically,
estimates of the magnitude of O3-related
exposures and risks associated with
recent air quality levels, as well as the
exposure and risk reductions likely to
be associated with just meeting the
current 8-hour primary O3 NAAQS,
have been considered.
In this review, a series of general
questions frames the approach to
reaching a decision on the adequacy of
the current standard, such as the
following: (1) To what extent does
newly available information reinforce or
call into question evidence of
associations of O3 exposures with effects
identified in the last review?; (2) to what
extent has evidence of new effects and/
or at-risk populations become available
since the last review?; (3) to what extent
have important uncertainties identified
in the last review been reduced and
have new uncertainties emerged?; (4) to
what extent does newly available
information reinforce or call into
question any of the basic elements of the
current standards?
The question of whether the available
evidence supports consideration of a
standard that is more protective than the
current standard includes consideration
of: (1) Whether there is evidence that
associations, especially likely causal
associations, extend to ambient O3
concentration levels that are as low as
or lower than had previously been
observed, and the important
uncertainties associated with that
evidence; (2) the extent to which
exposures of concern and health risks
are estimated to occur in areas upon
meeting the current standard and the
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important uncertainties associated with
the estimated exposures and risks; and
(3) the extent to which the O3-related
health effects indicated by the evidence
and the exposure and risk assessments
are considered important from a public
health perspective, taking into account
the nature and severity of the health
effects, the size of the at-risk
populations, and the kind and degree of
the uncertainties associated with these
considerations.
The current primary O3 standard is an
8-hour standard, which was set at a
level of 0.08 ppm,46 with a form of the
annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8hour average concentration, averaged
over three years. This standard was
chosen to provide protection to the
public, especially children and other atrisk populations, against a wide range of
O3-induced health effects. As an
introduction to this discussion of the
adequacy of the current O3 standard, it
is useful to summarize the key factors
that formed the basis of the decision in
the last review to revise the averaging
time, level, and form of the then current
1-hour standard.
In the last review, the key factor in
deciding to revise the averaging time of
the primary standard was evidence from
controlled human exposure studies of
healthy young adult subjects exposed
for 1 to 8 hours to O3. The best
documented health endpoints in these
studies were decrements in indices of
lung function, such as forced expiratory
volume in 1 second (FEV1), and
respiratory symptoms, such as cough
and chest pain on deep inspiration. For
short-term exposures of 1 to 3 hours,
group mean FEV1 decrements were
statistically significant for O3
concentrations only at and above 0.12
ppm, and only when subjects engaged
in very heavy exertion. By contrast,
evidence available in the prior review
showed that prolonged exposures of 6 to
8 hours produced statistically
significant group mean FEV1
decrements at the lowest O3
concentrations evaluated in those
studies, 0.080 ppm, even when
experimental subjects were engaged in
more realistic intermittent moderate
exertion levels. The health significance
of this newer evidence led to the
conclusion in the 1997 final decision
that the 8-hour averaging time is more
directly associated with health effects of
concern at lower O3 concentrations than
is the 1-hour averaging time.
46 If the standard were to be specified to the
nearest thousandth ppm, the current 0.08 ppm 8hour standard would be equivalent to a standard set
at 0.084 ppm, reflecting the data rounding
conventions that are part of the definition of the
current 8-hour standard.
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Based on the available evidence of O3related health effects, the following
factors were of particular importance in
the last review in informing the
selection of the level and form of a new
8-hour standard: (1) Quantitative
estimates of O3-related risks to active
children, who were judged to be an atrisk subgroup of concern, in terms of
transient and reversible respiratory
effects judged to be adverse, including
moderate to large decreases in lung
function and moderate to severe pain on
deep inspiration, and the uncertainty
and variability in such estimates; (2)
consideration of both the estimated
percentages, total numbers of children,
and number of times they were likely to
experience such effects; (3)
epidemiological evidence of
associations between ambient O3 and
increased respiratory hospital
admissions, and quantitative estimates
of percentages and total numbers of
asthma-related admissions in one
example urban area that were judged to
be indicative of a pyramid of much
larger effects, including respiratoryrelated hospital admissions, emergency
department visits, doctor visits, and
asthma attacks and related increased
medication use; (4) quantitative
estimates of the number of ‘‘exposures
of concern47’’ (defined as exposures ≥
0.080 ppm for 6 to 8 hour) that active
children are likely to experience, and
the uncertainty and variability in such
estimates; (5) the judgment that such
exposures are an important indicator of
public health impacts of O3-related
effects for which information is too
limited to develop quantitative risk
estimates, including increased
nonspecific bronchial responsiveness
(e.g., related to aggravation of asthma),
decreased pulmonary defense
mechanisms (suggestive of increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection),
and indicators of pulmonary
inflammation (related to potential
aggravation of chronic bronchitis or
long-term damage to the lungs); (6) the
broader public health perspective of the
number of people living in areas that
would breathe cleaner air as a result of
the revised standard; (7) consideration
of the relative seriousness of various
health effects and the relative degree of
certainty in both the likelihood that
people will experience various health
effects and their medical significance;
(8) the relationship of a standard level
47 In the last review, ‘‘exposures of concern’’
referred to exposures at and above 0.08 ppm, 8-hour
average, at which a range of health effects have been
observed in controlled human studies, but for
which data were too limited to allow for
quantitative risk assessment. (62 FR 38860, July 18,
1997).
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to estimated ‘‘background’’ levels
associated with nonanthropogenic
sources of O3; and (9) CASAC’s advice
and recommendations. Additional
factors considered in selecting the form
of the standard included balancing the
public health implications of the
estimated number of times in an O3
season that the standard level might be
exceeded in an area that is in attainment
with the standard with the year-to-year
stability of the air quality statistic,
which can be particularly affected by
years with unusual meteorology. A more
stable air quality statistic serves to avoid
disruptions to ongoing control programs
that could result from moving into and
out of attainment, thereby interrupting
the public health protection afforded by
such control programs.
In reaching a final decision in the last
review, the Administrator was mindful
that O3 exhibits a continuum of effects,
such that there is no discernible
threshold above which public health
protection requires that no exposures be
allowed or below which all risks to
public health can be avoided. The final
decision reflected a recognition that
important uncertainties remained, for
example with regard to interpreting the
role of other pollutants co-occurring
with O3 in observed associations,
understanding biological mechanisms of
O3-related health effects, and estimating
human exposures and quantitative risks
to at-risk populations for these health
effects.
2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based
Considerations in the Staff Paper
The Staff Paper (section 6.3.1)
considers the evidence presented in the
Criteria Document as discussed above in
section II.A as a basis for evaluating the
adequacy of the current O3 standard,
recognizing that important uncertainties
remain. The extensive body of human
clinical, toxicological, and
epidemiological evidence serves as the
basis for the judgments about O3-related
health effects discussed above,
including judgments about causal
relationships with a range of respiratory
morbidity effects, including lung
function decrements, increased
respiratory symptoms, airway
inflammation, increased airway
responsiveness, and respiratory-related
hospitalizations and emergency
department visits in the warm season,
and about the evidence being highly
suggestive that O3 directly or indirectly
contributes to non-accidental and
cardiopulmonary-related mortality.
These judgments take into account
important uncertainties that remain in
interpreting this evidence. For example,
with regard to the utility of time-series
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epidemiological studies to inform
judgments about a NAAQS for an
individual pollutant, such as O3, within
a mix of highly correlated pollutants,
such as the mix of oxidants produced in
photochemical reactions in the
atmosphere, the Staff Paper notes that
there are limitations especially at
ambient O3 concentrations below levels
at which O3-related effects have been
observed in controlled human exposure
studies. The Staff Paper (section 3.4.5)
also recognizes that the available
epidemiological evidence neither
supports nor refutes the existence of
thresholds at the population level for
effects such as increased hospital
admissions and premature mortality.
There are limitations in epidemiological
studies that make discerning thresholds
in populations difficult, including low
data density in the lower concentration
ranges, the possible influence of
exposure measurement error, and
variability in susceptibility to O3-related
effects in populations.
While noting these limitations in the
interpretation of the findings from the
epidemiological studies, the Staff Paper
(section 3.4.5) concludes that if a
population threshold level does exist, it
would likely be well below the level of
the current O3 standard and possibly
within the range of background levels.
As discussed above in section II.A.3.a,
this conclusion is supported by several
epidemiological studies that have
explored the question of potential
thresholds directly, either using a
statistical curve-fitting approach to
evaluate whether linear or non-linear
models fit the data better using sub-sets
of the data, where days over or under a
specific cutpoint (e.g., 0.080 ppm or
even lower O3 levels) were excluded
and then evaluating the association for
statistical significance. In addition to
direct consideration of the
epidemiological studies, findings from
controlled human exposure studies
discussed above in section II.A.2.a.i(a)(i)
indicate that prolonged exposures
produced statistically significant group
mean FEV1 decrements and symptoms
in healthy adult subjects at levels down
to at least 0.060 ppm, with a small
percentage of subjects experiencing
notable effects (e.g., >10 percent FEV1
decrement, pain on deep inspiration).
Controlled human exposure studies
evaluated in the last review also found
significant responses in indicators of
lung inflammation and cell injury at
0.080 ppm in healthy adult subjects.
The effects in these controlled human
exposure studies were observed in
healthy young adult subjects, and it is
likely that more serious responses, and
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responses at lower levels, would occur
in people with asthma and other
respiratory diseases. These
physiological effects have been linked to
aggravation of asthma and increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection,
potentially leading to increased
medication use, increased school and
work absences, increased visits to
doctors’ offices and emergency
departments, and increased hospital
admissions. The observations provide
additional support for the conclusion in
the Staff Paper that the associations
observed in the epidemiological studies,
particularly for respiratory-related
effects and potentially for
cardiovascular effects, extend down to
O3 levels well below the current
standard (i.e., 0.084 ppm) (EPA, 2007, p.
6–7).
As discussed above in section II.A
and in the Staff Paper (section 3.7), the
newly available information reinforces
the judgments about the likelihood of
causal relationships between O3
exposure and respiratory effects
observed in the last review and
broadens the evidence of O3-related
associations to include additional
respiratory-related endpoints, newly
identified cardiovascular-related health
endpoints, and mortality. Newly
available evidence also has shown that
people with asthma are likely to
experience more serious effects than
people who do not have asthma (section
II.A.4.b.ii above). The Staff Paper also
concludes that substantial progress has
been made since the last review in
advancing the understanding of
potential mechanisms by which ambient
O3, alone and in combination with other
pollutants, is causally linked to a range
of respiratory-related health endpoints,
and may be causally linked to a range
of cardiovascular-related health
endpoints. Thus, the Staff Paper (section
6.3.6) finds strong support in the
evidence developed since the last
review, for consideration of an O3
standard that is at least as protective as
the current standard and finds no
support for consideration of an O3
standard that is less protective than the
current standard. This conclusion is
consistent with the advice and
recommendations of CASAC and with
the views expressed by all interested
parties who provided comments on
drafts of the Staff Paper. While CASAC
and some commenters supported
revising the current standard to provide
increased public health protection and
other commenters supported retaining
the current standard, no one who
provided comments supported a
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standard that would be less protective
than the current standard.
a. Evidence-Based Considerations
In looking more specifically at the
controlled human exposure and
epidemiological evidence (which is
summarized in chapter 3 and Appendix
3B of the Staff Paper), the Staff Paper
first notes that controlled human
exposure studies provide the clearest
and most compelling evidence for an
array of human health effects that are
directly attributable to acute exposures
to O3 per se. Evidence from such human
studies, together with animal
toxicological studies, help to provide
biological plausibility for health effects
observed in epidemiological studies. In
considering the available evidence, the
Staff Paper focuses on studies that
examined health effects that have been
demonstrated to be caused by exposure
to O3, or for which the Criteria
Document judges associations with O3
to be causal or likely causal, or for
which the evidence is highly suggestive
that O3 contributes to the reported
effects. In considering the
epidemiological evidence as a basis for
reaching conclusions about the
adequacy of the current standard, the
Staff Paper focuses on studies reporting
effects in the warm season, for which
the effect estimates are more
consistently positive and statistically
significant than those from all-year
studies. The Staff Paper (section 6.3.1.1)
considers the extent to which such
studies provide evidence of associations
that extend down to ambient O3
concentrations below the level of the
current standard, which would thereby
call into question the adequacy of the
current standard. In so doing, the Staff
Paper notes, as discussed above, that if
a population threshold level does exist
for an effect observed in such studies, it
would likely be at a level well below the
level of the current standard. The Staff
Paper (section 6.3.1.1) also attempts to
characterize whether the area in which
a study was conducted likely would or
would not have met the current
standard during the time of the study,
although it recognizes that the
confidence that would appropriately be
placed on the associations observed in
any given study, or on the extent to
which the association would likely
extend down to relatively low O3
concentrations, is not dependent on this
distinction. Further, the Staff Paper
considered studies that examined
subsets of data that include only days
with ambient O3 concentrations below
the level of the current O3 standard, or
below even lower O3 concentrations,
and continue to report statistically
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significant associations. The Staff Paper
(section 6.3.1.1) judges that such studies
are directly relevant to considering the
adequacy of the current standard,
particularly in light of reported
responses to O3 at levels below the
current standard found in controlled
human exposure studies.
i. Lung Function, Respiratory
Symptoms, and Other Respiratory
Effects
Health effects for which the Criteria
Document continues to find clear
evidence of causal associations with
short-term O3 exposures include lung
function decrements, respiratory
symptoms, pulmonary inflammation,
and increased airway responsiveness. In
the last review, these O3-induced effects
were demonstrated with statistical
significance down to the lowest level
tested in controlled human exposure
studies at that time (i.e., 0.080 ppm). As
discussed in chapter 3 of the Staff
Paper, and in section II.A.2.a.i.(a)(i)
above, two new studies are notable in
that they are the only controlled human
exposure studies that examined
respiratory effects, including lung
function decrements and respiratory
symptoms, in healthy adults at lower
exposure levels than had previously
been examined. EPA’s reanalysis of the
data from the most recent study shows
small group mean decrements in lung
function responses to be statistically
significant at the 0.060 ppm exposure
level, while the author’s analysis did
not yield statistically significant lung
function responses but did yield some
statistically significant respiratory
symptom responses toward the end of
the exposure period. Notably, these
studies report a small percentage of
subjects experiencing lung function
decrements (≥ 10 percent) at the 0.060
ppm exposure level. These studies
provide very limited evidence of O3related lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms at this lower
exposure level.
The Staff Paper (section 3.3.1.1.1)
notes that evidence from controlled
human exposures studies indicates that
people with moderate-to-severe asthma
have somewhat larger decreases in lung
function in response to O3 relative to
healthy individuals and that lung
function responses in people with
asthma appear to be affected by baseline
lung function (i.e., magnitude of
responses increases with increasing
disease severity). As discussed in the
Criteria Document (p.8–80), this newer
information expands our understanding
of the physiological basis for increased
sensitivity in people with asthma and
other airway diseases, recognizing that
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people with asthma present a different
response profile for cellular, molecular,
and biochemical responses than people
who do not have asthma. New evidence
indicates that some people with asthma
have increased occurrence and duration
of nonspecific airway responsiveness,
which is an increased
bronchoconstrictive response to airway
irritants. Controlled human exposure
studies also indicate that some people
with allergic asthma and rhinitis have
increased airway responsiveness to
allergens following O3 exposure.
Exposures to O3 exacerbated lung
function decrements in people with preexisting allergic airway disease, with
and without asthma. Ozone-induced
exacerbation of airway responsiveness
persists longer and attenuates more
slowly than O3-induced lung function
decrements and respiratory symptom
responses and can have important
clinical implications for asthmatics.
The Staff Paper (p.6–10) also
concludes that newly available human
exposure studies suggest that some
people with asthma also have increased
inflammatory responses, relative to nonasthmatic subjects, and that this
inflammation may take longer to
resolve. The new data on airway
responsiveness, inflammation, and
various molecular markers of
inflammation and bronchoconstriction
indicate that people with asthma and
allergic rhinitis (with or without
asthma) comprise susceptible groups for
O3-induced adverse effects. This body of
evidence qualitatively informs the Staff
Paper’s (pp.6–10 to 6–11) evaluation of
the adequacy of the current O3 standard
in that it indicates that human clinical
and epidemiological panel studies of
lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms that evaluate only
healthy, non-asthmatic subjects likely
underestimate the effects of O3 exposure
on asthmatics and other susceptible
populations.
The Staff Paper (p.6–11) notes that in
addition to the experimental evidence of
lung function decrements, respiratory
symptoms, and other respiratory effects
in healthy and asthmatic populations
discussed above, epidemiological
studies have reported associations of
lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms in several
locations (Appendix 3B; also Figure 3–
4 for respiratory symptoms). As
discussed in the Staff Paper (section
3.3.1.1.1) and above, two large U.S.
panel studies which together followed
over 1000 asthmatic children on a daily
basis (Mortimer et al., 2002, the
National Cooperative Inner-City Asthma
Study, or NCICAS; and Gent et al.,
2003), as well as several smaller U.S.
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and international studies, have reported
robust associations between ambient O3
concentrations and measures of lung
function and daily symptoms (e.g., chest
tightness, wheeze, shortness of breath)
in children with moderate to severe
asthma and between O3 and increased
asthma medication use. Overall, the
multi-city NCICAS (2002), Gent et al.
(2003), and several other single-city
studies indicate a robust positive
association between ambient O3
concentrations and increased
respiratory symptoms and increased
medication use in asthmatics.
In considering the large number of
single-city epidemiological studies
reporting lung function or respiratory
symptoms in healthy or asthmatic
populations (Staff Paper, Appendix 3B),
the Staff Paper (p.6–11) notes that most
such studies that reported positive and
often statistically significant
associations in the warm season were
conducted in areas that likely would not
have met the current standard. In
considering the large multi-city NCICAS
(Mortimer et al., 2002), the Staff Paper
notes that the 98th percentile 8-hour
daily maximum O3 concentrations at the
monitor reporting the highest O3
concentrations in each of the study
areas ranged from 0.084 ppm to >0.10
ppm. However, the authors indicate that
less than 5 percent of the days in the
eight urban areas had 8-hour daily O3
concentrations exceeding 0.080 ppm.
Moreover, the authors observed that
when days with 8-hour average O3
levels greater than 0.080 ppm were
excluded, similar effect estimates were
seen compared to estimates which
included all of the days. There are also
a few other studies in which the
relevant air quality statistics provide
some indication that lung function and
respiratory symptom effects may be
occurring in areas that likely would
have met the current standard (EPA,
2007, p.6–12).
ii. Respiratory Hospital Admissions and
Emergency Department Visits
At the time of the last review, many
time-series studies indicated positive
associations between ambient O3 and
increased respiratory hospital
admissions and emergency room visits,
providing strong evidence for a
relationship between O3 exposure and
increased exacerbations of preexisting
lung disease at O3 levels below the level
of the then current 1-hour standard
(EPA 2007, section 3.3.1.1.6). Analyses
of data from studies conducted in the
northeastern U.S. indicated that O3 air
pollution was consistently and strongly
associated with summertime respiratory
hospital admissions.
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Since the last review, new
epidemiological studies have evaluated
the association between short-term
exposures to O3 and unscheduled
hospital admissions for respiratory
causes. Large multi-city studies, as well
as many studies from individual cities,
have reported positive and often
statistically significant O3 associations
with total respiratory hospitalizations as
well as asthma- and COPD-related
hospitalizations, especially in studies
analyzing the O3 effect during the
summer or warm season. Analyses using
multipollutant regression models
generally indicate that copollutants do
not confound the association between
O3 and respiratory hospitalizations and
that the O3 effect estimates were robust
to PM adjustment in all-year and warmseason only data. The Criteria Document
(p.8–77) concludes that the evidence
supports a causal relationship between
acute O3 exposures and increased
respiratory-related hospitalizations
during the warm season.
In looking specifically at U.S. and
Canadian respiratory hospitalization
studies that reported positive and often
statistically significant associations (and
that either did not use GAM or were
reanalyzed to address GAM-related
problems), the Staff Paper (p.6–12) notes
that many such studies were conducted
in areas that likely would not have met
the current O3 standard, with many
providing only all-year effect estimates,
and with some reporting a statistically
significant association in the warm
season. Of the studies that provide some
indication that O3-related respiratory
hospitalizations may be occurring in
areas that likely would have met the
current standard, the Staff Paper notes
that some are all-year studies, whereas
others reported statistically significant
warm-season associations.
Emergency department visits for
respiratory causes have been the focus
of a number of new studies that have
examined visits related to asthma,
COPD, bronchitis, pneumonia, and
other upper and lower respiratory
infections, such as influenza, with
asthma visits typically dominating the
daily incidence counts. Among studies
with adequate controls for seasonal
patterns, many reported at least one
significant positive association
involving O3. However, inconsistencies
were observed which were at least
partially attributable to differences in
model specifications and analysis
approach among various studies. In
general, O3 effect estimates from
summer-only analyses tended to be
positive and larger compared to results
from cool season or all-year analyses.
Almost all of the studies that reported
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statistically significant effect estimates
were conducted in areas that likely
would not have met the current
standard. The Criteria Document
(section 7.3.2) concluded that analyses
stratified by season generally supported
a positive association between O3
concentrations and emergency
department visits for asthma in the
warm season. These studies provide
evidence of effects in areas that likely
would not have met the current
standard and evidence of associations
that likely extend down to relatively
low ambient O3 concentrations.
iii. Mortality
The 1996 Criteria Document
concluded that an association between
daily mortality and O3 concentrations
for areas with high O3 levels (e.g., Los
Angeles) was suggested. However, due
to a very limited number of studies
available at that time, there was
insufficient evidence to conclude that
the observed association was likely
causal, and thus the possibility that O3
exposure may be associated with
mortality was not relied upon in the
1997 decision on the O3 primary
standard.
Since the last review, as described
above, the body of evidence with regard
to O3-related health effects has been
expanded by animal, human clinical,
and epidemiological studies and now
includes biologically plausible
mechanisms by which O3 may affect the
cardiovascular system. In addition,
there is stronger information linking O3
to serious morbidity outcomes, such as
hospitalization, that are associated with
increased mortality. Thus, there is now
a coherent body of evidence that
describes a range of health outcomes
from lung function decrements to
hospitalization and premature mortality.
Newly available large multi-city
studies (Bell et al., 2004; Huang et
al.,2005; and Schwartz 2005) designed
specifically to examine the effect of O3
and other pollutants on mortality have
provided much more robust and
credible information. Together these
studies have reported significant
associations between O3 and mortality
that were robust to adjustment for PM
and different adjustment methods for
temperature and suggest that the effect
of O3 on mortality is immediate but also
persists for several days. One recent
multi-city study (Bell et al., 2006)
examined the shape of the
concentration-response function for the
O3-mortality relationship in 98 U.S.
urban communities for the period 1987
to 2000 specifically to evaluate whether
a ‘‘safe’’ threshold level exists. Results
from various analytic methods all
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indicated that any threshold, if it exists,
would likely occur at very low
concentrations, far below the level of
the current O3 NAAQS and nearing
background levels.
New data are also available from
several single-city studies conducted
world-wide, as well as from several
meta-analyses that have combined
information from multiple studies.
Three recent meta-analyses evaluated
potential sources of heterogeneity in O3mortality associations. All three
analyses reported common findings,
including effect estimates that were
statistically significant and larger in
warm season analyses. Reanalysis of
results using default GAM criteria did
not change the effect estimates, and
there was no strong evidence of
confounding by PM. The Criteria
Document (p.7–175) finds that the
majority of these studies suggest that
there is an elevated risk of total
nonaccidental mortality associated with
acute exposure to O3, especially in the
summer or warm season when O3 levels
are typically high, with somewhat larger
effect estimate sizes for associations
with cardiovascular mortality.
Overall, the Criteria Document (p.8–
78) finds that the results from U.S.
multi-city time-series studies, along
with the meta-analyses, provide
relatively strong evidence for
associations between short-term O3
exposure and all-cause mortality even
after adjustment for the influence of
season and PM. The results of these
analyses indicate that copollutants
generally do not appear to substantially
confound the association between O3
and mortality. In addition, several
single-city studies observed positive
associations of ambient O3
concentrations with total nonaccidental
and cardiopulmonary mortality.
Finally, from those studies that
included assessment of associations
with specific causes of death, it appears
that effect estimates for associations
with cardiovascular mortality are larger
than those for total mortality; effect
estimates for respiratory mortality are
less consistent in size, possibly due to
reduced statistical power in this
subcategory of mortality. For
cardiovascular mortality, the Criteria
Document (p.7–106) suggests that effect
estimates are consistently positive and
more likely to be larger and statistically
significant in warm season analyses.
The Criteria Document (p.8–78)
concludes that these findings are highly
suggestive that short-term O3 exposure
directly or indirectly contributes to
nonaccidental and cardiopulmonaryrelated mortality, but additional
research is needed to more fully
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establish underlying mechanisms by
which such effects occur.
b. Exposure- and Risk-Based
Considerations
As discussed above in section II.B, the
Staff Paper also estimated quantitative
exposures and health risks associated
with recent air quality levels and with
air quality that meets the current
standard to help inform judgments
about whether or not the current
standard provides adequate protection
of public health. In so doing, it
presented the important uncertainties
and limitations associated with the
exposure and risk assessments
(discussed above in section II.B and
more fully in chapters 4 and 5 of the
Staff Paper).
The Staff Paper (and the CASAC) also
recognized that the exposure and risk
analyses could not provide a full picture
of the O3 exposures and O3-related
health risks posed nationally. The Staff
Paper did not have sufficient
information to evaluate all relevant atrisk groups (e.g., outdoor workers) or all
O3-related health outcomes (e.g.,
increased medication use, school
absences, and emergency department
visits that are part of the broader
pyramid of effects discussed above in
section II.A.4.d), and the scope of the
Staff Paper analyses was generally
limited to estimating exposures and
risks in 12 urban areas across the U.S.,
and to only five or just one area for
some health effects included in the risk
assessment. Thus, national-scale public
health impacts of ambient O3 exposures
are clearly much larger than the
quantitative estimates of O3-related
incidences of adverse health effects and
the numbers of children likely to
experience exposures of concern
associated with recent air quality or air
quality that just meets the current or
alternative standards. On the other
hand, inter-individual variability in
responsiveness means that only a subset
of individuals in each group estimated
to experience exposures exceeding a
given benchmark exposure of concern
level would actually be expected to
experience such adverse health effects.
As described above in section II.B, the
Staff Paper estimated exposures and
risks for the three most recent years
(2002–2004) for which data were
available at the time of the analyses.
Within this 3-year period, 2002 was a
year with relatively higher O3 levels in
most, but not all, areas and simulation
of just meeting the current standard
based on 2002 air quality data provides
a generally more upper-end estimate of
exposures and risks, while 2004 was a
year with relatively lower O3 levels in
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most, but not all, areas and simulation
of just meeting the current standard
using 2004 air quality data provides a
generally more lower-end estimate of
exposures and risks.
i. Exposure Assessment Results
As discussed above in section II.B.1,
the Staff Paper estimates personal
exposures to ambient O3 levels at and
above specific benchmark levels to
provide some perspective on the public
health impacts of health effects that
cannot currently be evaluated in
quantitative risk assessments but that
may occur at current air quality levels,
and the extent to which such impacts
might be reduced by meeting the current
and alternative standards. As described
in greater detail in section II.B.1.c
above, the Staff Paper refers to
exposures at and above these
benchmark levels as ‘‘exposures of
concern.’’ The Staff Paper notes that
exposures of concern, and the health
outcomes they represent, likely occur
across a range of O3 exposure levels,
such that there is no one exposure level
that addresses all relevant public health
concerns. Therefore, with the
concurrence of the CASAC, the Staff
Paper estimated exposures of concern
not only at 0.080 ppm O3, a level at
which there are demonstrated effects,
but also at 0.070 and 0.060 ppm O3. The
Staff Paper recognized that there will be
varying degrees of concern about
exposures at each of these levels, based
in part on the population subgroups
experiencing them. Given that there is
clear evidence of inflammation,
increased airway responsiveness, and
changes in host defenses in healthy
people exposed to 0.080 ppm O3 and
reason to infer that such effects will
continue at lower exposure levels, but
with increasing uncertainty about the
extent to which such effects occur at
lower O3 concentrations, the Staff Paper,
and the discussion below, focuses on
exposures of concern at or above
benchmark levels of 0.070 and 0.060
ppm O3 for purposes of evaluating the
adequacy of the current standard.
The exposure estimates presented in
the Staff Paper are for the number and
percent of all school age children and
asthmatic school age children exposed,
and the number of person-days
(occurrences) of exposures, with daily 8hour maximum exposures at or above
several benchmark levels while at
intermittent moderate or greater
exertion. As shown in the Table 1 in
this notice, the percent of population
exposed at any given level is very
similar for all and asthmatic school age
children. Substantial year-to-year
variability in exposure estimates is
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observed, ranging to over an order of
magnitude at the current standard level,
in estimates of the number of children
and, as shown in Table 6–1a and b of
the Staff Paper, the number of
occurrences of exposures of concern at
both of these benchmark levels. The
Staff Paper states that it is appropriate
to consider not just the average
estimates across all years, but also to
consider public health impacts in year
with relatively higher O3 levels. The
Staff Paper also notes that there is
substantial city-to-city variability in
these estimates, and notes that it is
appropriate to consider not just the
aggregate estimates across all cities, but
also to consider the public health
impacts in cities that receive relatively
less protection upon meeting the current
standard.
As discussed in the Staff Paper (EPA,
2007b, see section 6.3.1.2), about 50
percent of asthmatic or all school age
children, representing nearly 1.3 million
asthmatic children and about 8.5
million school age children in the 12
urban areas examined, are estimated to
experience exposures of concern at or
above the 0.070 ppm benchmark level
(i.e., these individuals are estimated to
experience 8-hour O3 exposures at or
above 0.070 ppm while engaged in
moderate or greater exertion 1 or more
times during the O3 season) associated
with 2002 O3 air quality levels. In
contrast, about 17 percent of asthmatic
and all school age children are
estimated to experience exposures of
concern at or above the 0.070 ppm
benchmark level associated with 2004
O3 air quality levels. Just meeting the
current standard results in an aggregate
estimate of about 20 percent of
asthmatic or 18 percent or all school age
children likely to experience exposures
of concern at or above the 0.070 ppm
benchmark level using the 2002
simulation. The exposure estimates for
this benchmark level range up to about
40 percent of asthmatic or all school age
children in the single city with the least
degree of protection from this standard.
Just meeting the current standard based
on the 2004 simulation, results in an
aggregate estimate of about 1 percent of
asthmatic or all school age children
experiencing exposures at the 0.07 ppm
benchmark level.
At the benchmark level of 0.060 ppm,
about 70 percent of all or asthmatic
school age children are estimated to
experience exposures of concern at this
benchmark level for the aggregate of the
12 urban areas associated with 2002 O3
levels. Just meeting the current standard
would result in an aggregate estimate of
about 45 percent of asthmatic or all
school age children likely to experience
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exposures of concern at or above the
0.060 ppm benchmark level using the
2002 simulation. The exposure
estimates for this benchmark level range
up to nearly 70 percent of all or
asthmatic school age children in the
single city with the least degree of
protection associated with just meeting
the current standard using the 2002
simulation. The Staff Paper indicates an
aggregate estimate of about 10 percent of
asthmatic or all school age children
would experience exposures at or above
the 0.06 ppm benchmark level
associated with just meeting the current
standard using the 2004 simulation.
ii. Risk Assessment Results
As described in more detail in section
II.B.2 above and in chapters 5 and 6 of
the Staff Paper, risk estimates have been
developed for several important health
endpoints, including: (1) Lung function
decrements (i.e., ≥15 percent and ≥20
percent reductions in FEV1) in all
school age children for 12 urban areas;
(2) lung function decrements (i.e., ≥10
percent and ≥20 percent reductions in
FEV1) in asthmatic school age children
for 5 urban areas (a subset of the 12
urban areas); (3) respiratory symptoms
(i.e., chest tightness, shortness of breath,
wheeze) in moderate to severe asthmatic
children for the Boston area; (4)
respiratory-related hospital admissions
for 3 urban areas; and (5) nonaccidental
and cardiorespiratory mortality for 12
urban areas for three recent years (2002
to 2004) and for just meeting the current
standard using a 2002 simulation and a
2004 simulation.
With regard to estimates of moderate
lung function decrements, as shown in
Tables 6–2 of the Staff Paper, meeting
the current standard substantially
reduces the estimated number of school
age children experiencing one or more
occurrences of FEV1 decrements ≥15
percent for the 12 urban areas, going
from about 1.3 million children (7
percent of children) under 2002 air
quality to about 610,000 (3 percent of
children) based on the 2002 simulation,
and from about 620,000 children (3
percent of children) to about 230,000 (1
percent of children) using the 2004
simulation. In asthmatic children, the
estimated number of children
experiencing one or more occurrences of
FEV1 decrements ≥10 percent for the 5
urban areas goes from about 250,000
children (16 percent of asthmatic
children) under 2002 air quality to
about 130,000 (8 percent of asthmatic
children) using the 2002 simulation,
and from about 160,000 (10 percent of
asthmatic children) to about 70,000 (4
percent of asthmatic children) using the
2004 simulation. Thus, even when the
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current standard is met, about 4 to 8
percent of asthmatic school age children
are estimated to experience one or more
occurrences of moderate lung function
decrements, resulting in about 1 million
occurrences (using the 2002 simulation)
and nearly 700,000 occurrence (using
the 2004 simulation) in just 5 urban
areas. Moreover, the estimated number
of occurrences of moderate or greater
lung function decrements per child is
on average approximately 6 to 7 in all
children and 8 to 10 in asthmatic
children in an O3 season, even when the
current standard is met, depending on
the year used to simulate meeting the
current standard. In the 1997 review of
the O3 standard a general consensus
view of the adversity of such moderate
responses emerged as the frequency of
occurrences increases, with the
judgment that repeated occurrences of
moderate responses, even in otherwise
healthy individuals, may be considered
adverse since they may well set the
stage for more serious illness.
With regard to estimates of large lung
function decrements, the Staff Paper
notes that FEV1 decrements >20 percent
would likely interfere with normal
activities in many healthy individuals,
therefore single occurrences would be
considered to be adverse. In people with
asthma, large lung function responses
would likely interfere with normal
activities for most individuals and
would also increase the likelihood that
these individuals would use additional
medication or seek medical treatment.
Not only would single occurrences be
considered to be adverse to asthmatic
individuals under the ATS definition,
but they also would be cause for
medical concern. While the current
standard reduces the occurrences of
large lung function decrements in all
children and asthmatic children from
about 60 to 70%, in a year with
relatively higher O3 levels (2002), there
are estimated to be about 500,000
occurrences in all school children
across the entire 12 urban areas, and
about 40,000 occurrences in asthmatic
children across just 5 urban areas. As
noted above, it is clear that even when
the current standard is met over a threeyear period, O3 levels in each year can
vary considerably, as evidenced by
relatively large differences between risk
estimates based on 2002 to 2004 air
quality. The Staff Paper expressed the
view that it was appropriate to consider
this yearly variation in O3 levels
allowed by the current standard in
judging the extent to which impacts on
members of at-risk groups in a year with
relatively higher O3 levels remains of
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concern from a public health
perspective.
With regard to other O3-related health
effects, as shown in Tables 6–4 through
6–6 of the Staff Paper, the estimated
risks of respiratory symptom days in
moderate to severe asthmatic children,
respiratory-related hospital admissions,
and non-accidental and
cardiorespiratory mortality,
respectively, are not reduced to as great
an extent by meeting the current
standard as are lung function
decrements. For example, just meeting
the current standard reduces the
estimated average incidence of chest
tightness in moderate to severe
asthmatic children living in the Boston
urban area by 11 to 15%, based on 2002
and 2004 simulations, respectively,
resulting in an estimated incidence of
about 23,000 to 31,000 per 100,000
children attributable to O3 exposure
(Table 6–4). Just meeting the current
standard is estimated to reduce the
incidence of respiratory-related hospital
admissions in the New York City urban
area by about 16 to 18%, based on 2002
and 2004 simulations, respectively,
resulting in an estimated incidence per
100,000 population of 4.6 to 6.4,
respectively (Table 6–5). Across the 12
urban areas, the estimates of nonaccidental mortality incidence per
100,000 relevant population range from
0.4 to 2.6 (for 2002) and 0.5 to 1.5 (for
2004) (Table 6–6). Meeting the current
standard results in a reduction of the
estimated incidence per 100,000
population to a range of 0.3 to 2.4 based
on the 2002 simulation and a range of
0.3 to 1.2 based on the 2004 simulation.
Estimates for cardiorespiratory mortality
show similar patterns.
In considering the estimates of the
proportion of population affected and
the number of occurrences of the health
effects that are included in the risk
assessment, the Staff Paper notes that
these limited estimates are indicative of
a much broader array of O3-related
health endpoints that are part of a
‘‘pyramid of effects’’ that include
various indicators of morbidity that
could not be included in the risk
assessment (e.g., school absences,
increased medication use, emergency
department visits) and which primarily
affect members of at-risk groups. While
the Staff Paper had sufficient
information to estimate and consider the
number of symptom days in children
with moderate to severe asthma, it
recognized that there are many other
effects that may be associated with
symptom days, such as increased
medication use, school and work
absences, or visits to doctors’ offices, for
which there was not sufficient
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information to estimate risks but which
are important to consider in assessing
the adequacy of the current standard.
The same is true for more serious, but
less frequent effects. The Staff Paper
estimated hospital admissions, but there
was not sufficient information to
estimate emergency department visits in
a quantitative risk assessment.
Consideration of such unquantified
risks in the Staff Paper reinforces the
Staff Paper conclusion that
consideration should be given to
revising the standard so as to provide
increased public health protection,
especially for at-risk groups such as
people with asthma or other lung
diseases, as well as children and older
adults, particularly those active
outdoors, and outdoor workers.
c. Summary
Based on the available information
and taking into account the views of
CASAC and public comments, the Staff
Paper initially notes that all parties
commenting on the NAAQS review
agree that the standard should be at
least as protective as the current
standard, as no party suggested it
should be revised to provide less
protection. The Staff Paper concludes
that the overall body of evidence clearly
calls into question the adequacy of the
current standard in protecting at-risk
groups, notably including asthmatic
children and other people with lung
disease, as well as all children and older
adults, especially those active outdoors,
and outdoor workers,48 against an array
of adverse health effects that range from
decreased lung function to serious
indicators of respiratory morbidity
including emergency department visits
and hospital admissions for respiratory
causes, nonaccidental mortality, and
possibly cardiovascular effects. The
available information provides strong
support for consideration of an O3
standard that would provide increased
health protection for these at-risk
groups. The Staff Paper also concludes
that risks projected to remain upon
meeting the current standard, based on
the exposure and risk estimates
discussed above and in more detail in
the Staff Paper, are indicative of risks to
at-risk groups that can be judged to be
important from a public health
perspective, which reinforces the Staff
Paper conclusion that consideration
should be given to revising the level of
the standard so as to provide increased
48 In defining at-risk groups this way we are
including both groups with greater inherent
sensitivity and those more likely to be exposed.
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public health protection (EPA, 2007,
section 6.3.6).
3. CASAC Views
In its letter to the Administrator, the
CASAC O3 Panel, with full endorsement
of the chartered CASAC, unanimously
concluded that there is ‘‘no scientific
justification for retaining’’ the current
primary O3 standard, and the current
standard ‘‘needs to be substantially
reduced to protect human health,
particularly in sensitive
subpopulations’’ (Henderson, 2006c, pp.
1–2). In its rationale for this conclusion,
the CASAC Panel concluded that ‘‘new
evidence supports and build-upon key,
health-related conclusions drawn in the
1997 Ozone NAAQS review’’ (id., p. 3).
The Panel points to studies discussed in
chapter 3 and Appendix 3B of the Staff
Paper in noting that several new singlecity studies and large multi-city studies
have provided more evidence for
adverse health effects at concentrations
lower than the current standard, and
that these epidemiological studies are
backed-up by evidence from controlled
human exposure studies. The Panel
specifically noted evidence from the
recent Adams (2006) study that reported
statistically significant decrements in
the lung function of healthy, moderately
exercising adults at a 0.080 ppm
exposure level, and importantly, also
reported adverse lung function effects in
some healthy individuals at 0.060 ppm.
The Panel concluded that these results
indicate that the current standard ‘‘is
not sufficiently health-protective with
an adequate margin of safety,’’ noting
that that while similar studies in
sensitive groups such as asthmatics
have yet to be conducted, ‘‘people with
asthma, and particularly children, have
been found to be more sensitive and to
experience larger decrements in lung
function in response to O3 exposures
than would healthy volunteers
(Mortimer et al., 2002)’’ (Henderson,
2006c, p. 4).
The CASAC Panel also highlighted a
number of O3-related adverse health
effects, that are associated with
exposure to ambient O3, below the level
of the current standard, based on a
broad range of epidemiological studies
(Henderson, 2006c). These adverse
health effects include increases in
school absenteeism, respiratory hospital
emergency department visits among
asthmatics and patients with other
respiratory diseases, hospitalizations for
respiratory illnesses, symptoms
associated with adverse health effects
(including chest tightness and
medication usage), and premature
mortality (nonaccidental,
cardiorespiratory deaths) reported at
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exposure levels well below the current
standard. ‘‘The CASAC considers each
of these findings to be an important
indicator of adverse health effects’’
(Henderson, 2006c).
The CASAC Panel expressed the view
that more emphasis should be placed on
the subjects in controlled human
exposure studies with FEV1 decrements
greater than 10 percent, which can be
clinically significant, rather than on the
relatively small average decrements.
The Panel also emphasized significant
O3-related inflammatory responses and
markers of injury to the epithelial lining
of the lung that are independent of
spirometric responses. Further, the
Panel expressed the view that the Staff
Paper did not place enough emphasis on
serious morbidity (e.g., hospital
admissions) and mortality observed in
epidemiology studies. On the basis of
the large amount of recent data
evaluating adverse health effects at
levels at and below the current O3
standard, it was the unanimous opinion
of the CASAC Panel that the current
primary O3 standard is not adequate to
protect human health, that the relevant
scientific data do not support
consideration of retaining the current
standard, and that the current standard
needs to be substantially reduced to be
protective of human health, particularly
in sensitive subpopulations (Henderson,
2006c, pp. 4–5).
Further, the CASAC letter noted that
‘‘there is no longer significant scientific
uncertainty regarding the CASAC’s
conclusion that the current 8-hour
primary NAAQS must be lowered’’
(Henderson, 2006c, p. 5). The Panel
noted that a ‘‘large body of data clearly
demonstrates adverse human health
effects at the current level’’ of the
standard, such that ‘‘[R]etaining this
standard would continue to put large
numbers of individuals at risk for
respiratory effects and/or significant
impact on quality of life including
asthma exacerbations, emergency room
visits, hospital admissions and
mortality’’ (Henderson, 2006c). The
Panel also noted that ‘‘scientific
uncertainty does exist with regard to the
lower level of O3 exposure that would
be fully protective of human health,’’
concluding that ‘‘it is possible that there
is no threshold for an O3-induced
impact on human health and that some
adverse events may occur at policyrelevant background’’ (Henderson,
2006c, p.5).
4. Administrator’s Proposed
Conclusions Concerning Adequacy of
Current Standard
Based on the large body of evidence
concerning the public health impacts of
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O3 pollution, including significant new
evidence concerning effects at O3
concentrations below the level of the
current standard, the Administrator
proposes that the current standard does
not protect public health with an
adequate margin of safety and should be
revised to provide additional public
health protection. In considering
whether the primary standard should be
revised, the Administrator has carefully
considered the conclusions contained in
the Criteria Document, the rationale and
recommendations contained in the Staff
Paper, the advice and recommendations
from the CASAC, and public comments
to date. The Administrator notes that
evidence of a range of respiratoryrelated morbidity effects seen in the last
review has been considerably
strengthened, both through toxicological
and controlled human exposure studies
as well as through many new panel and
epidemiological studies.
In addition, new evidence from
controlled human exposure and
epidemiological studies identifies
people with asthma as an important
susceptible population for which
estimates of respiratory effects in the
general population likely underestimate
the magnitude or importance of these
effects. New evidence about
mechanisms of toxicity more completely
explains the biological plausibility of
O3-induced respiratory effects and is
beginning to suggest mechanisms that
may link O3 exposure to cardiovascular
effects. Further, there is now relatively
strong evidence for associations
between O3 and total nonaccidental and
cardiopulmonary mortality, even after
adjustment for the influence of season
and PM. Relative to the information that
was available to inform the Agency’s
1997 decision to set the current
standard, the newly available evidence
increases the Administrator’s
confidence that respiratory morbidity
effects such as lung function decrements
and respiratory symptoms are causally
related to O3 exposures, that indicators
of respiratory morbidity such as
emergency department visits and
hospital admissions are causally related
to O3 exposures, and that the evidence
is highly suggestive that O3 exposures
during the O3 season contribute to
premature mortality.
The Administrator judges that there is
important new evidence demonstrating
that exposures to O3 at levels below the
level of the current standard are
associated with a broad array of adverse
health effects, especially in at-risk
populations. These at-risk populations
include people with asthma or other
lung diseases who are likely to
experience more serious effects from
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exposure to O3. As discussed in section
II.A.4 above, these groups also include
children and older adults with
increased susceptibility, as well as those
who are likely to be vulnerable as a
result of spending a lot of time outdoors
engaged in physical activity, especially
active children and outdoor workers.
Examples of this important new
evidence include demonstration of O3induced lung function effects and
respiratory symptoms in some healthy
individuals down to the previously
observed exposure level of 0.080 ppm,
as well as very limited new evidence at
exposure levels well below the level of
the current standard. In addition, there
is now epidemiological evidence of
statistically significant O3-related
associations with lung function and
respiratory symptom effects, respiratoryrelated emergency department visits and
hospital admissions, and increased
mortality, in areas that likely would
have met the current standard. There are
also many epidemiological studies done
in areas that likely would not have met
the current standard but which
nonetheless report statistically
significant associations that generally
extend down to ambient O3
concentrations that are below the level
of the current standard. Further, there
are a few studies that have examined
subsets of data that include only days
with ambient O3 concentrations below
the level of the current standard, or
below even much lower O3
concentrations, and continue to report
statistically significant associations with
respiratory morbidity outcomes and
mortality. The Administrator recognizes
that the evidence from controlled
human exposure studies, together with
animal toxicological studies, provides
considerable support for the biological
plausibility of the respiratory morbidity
associations observed in the
epidemiological studies and for
concluding that the associations extend
below the level of the current standard.
Based on the strength of the currently
available evidence of adverse health
effects, and on the extent to which the
evidence indicates that such effects
result from exposures to ambient O3
concentrations below the level of the
current standard, the Administrator
judges that the current standard does
not protect public health with an
adequate margin of safety and that the
standard should be revised to provide
such protection, especially for at-risk
groups, against a broad array of adverse
health effects.
In reaching this judgment, the
Administrator has also considered the
results of both the exposure and risk
assessments conducted for this review,
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to provide some perspective on the
extent to which at-risk groups would
likely experience ‘‘exposures of
concern’’ 49 and on the potential
magnitude of the risk of experiencing
various adverse health effects when
recent air quality data (from 2002 to
2004) are used to simulate meeting the
current standard and alternative
standards in a number of urban areas in
the U.S.50 In considering the exposure
assessment results, the Administrator is
relying on analyses that define
exposures of concern by three
benchmark exposure levels: 0.080,
0.070, and 0.060 ppm. Estimates of
exposures of concern in at-risk groups at
and above these benchmark levels,
using O3 air quality data in 2002 and
2004, provide some indication of the
potential magnitude of the incidence of
health outcomes that cannot currently
be evaluated in a quantitative risk
assessment, such as increased airway
responsiveness, increased pulmonary
inflammation, including increased
cellular permeability, and decreased
pulmonary defense mechanisms. These
physiological effects have been
demonstrated to occur in healthy people
at O3 exposures as low as 0.080 ppm,
the lowest level tested. They are
associated with aggravation of asthma,
increased medication use, increased
school and work absences, increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection,
increased visits to doctors’ offices and
emergency departments, increased
admissions to hospitals, and possibly to
cardiovascular system effects and
chronic effects such as chronic
bronchitis or long-term damage to the
lungs that can lead to reduced quality of
life.
In considering these various
benchmark levels for exposures of
concern, the Administrator has focused
primarily on estimated exposures at and
above the 0.070 ppm benchmark level as
an important surrogate measure for
49 As discussed in section II.B.1.c above,
‘‘exposures of concern’’ are estimates of personal
exposures while at moderate or greater exertion to
8-hour average ambient O3 levels at and above
specific benchmark levels which represent
exposure levels at which O3-related health effects
are known or can with varying degrees of certainty
be inferred to occur in some individuals. Estimates
of exposures of concern provide some perspective
on the public health impacts of health effects that
may occur in some individuals at recent air quality
levels but cannot be evaluated in quantitative risk
assessments, and the extent to which such impacts
might be reduced by meeting the current and
alternative standards.
50 As described in the Staff Paper (section 4.5.8)
and discussed above, recent O3 air quality
distributions have been statistically adjusted to
simulate just meeting the current and selected
alternative standards. These simulations do not
represent predictions of when, whether, or how
areas might meet the specified standards.
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potentially more serious health effects
in at-risk groups such as people with
asthma. This judgment is based on the
strong evidence of effects in healthy
people at the 0.080 ppm exposure level
and the new evidence that people with
asthma are likely to experience larger
and more serious effects than healthy
people at the same level of exposure. In
the Administrator’s view, this evidence
does not support a focus on exposures
at and above the benchmark level of
0.080 ppm O3, as it would not
adequately account for the increased
risk of harm from exposure for members
of at-risk groups, especially people with
asthma. The Administrator also judges
that the evidence of demonstrated
effects is too limited to support a
primary focus on exposures down to the
lowest benchmark level considered of
0.060 ppm. The Administrator
particularly notes that although the
analysis of ‘‘exposures of concern’’ was
conducted to estimate exposures at and
above three discrete benchmark levels
(0.080, 0.070, and 0.060 ppm), the
concept is appropriately viewed as a
continuum. As discussed at the outset
in section II.A above, the Administrator
strives to balance concern about the
potential for health effects and their
severity with the increasing uncertainty
associated with our understanding of
the likelihood of such effects at lower
O3 exposure levels.
The Administrator observes that
based on the aggregate exposure
estimates for the 2002 simulation
summarized above in Table 1 (section
II.B.1) and in the Staff Paper (EPA,
2007b, Table 6–7) for the 12 U.S. urban
areas included in the exposure analysis,
upon just meeting the current standard
up to about 20 percent of asthmatic or
all school age children are likely to
experience one or more exposures of
concern at and above the 0.070 ppm
benchmark level; the 2004 simulation
yielded an estimate of about 1 percent
of such children. The Administrator
notes from this comparison that there is
substantial year-to-year variability,
ranging up to an order of magnitude or
more in estimates of the number of
people and the number of occurrences
of exposures of concern at and above
this benchmark level. Moreover, within
any given year, the exposure assessment
indicates that there is substantial cityto-city variability in the estimates of the
children exposed or the number of
occurrences of exposure at and above
this benchmark level. For example, cityspecific estimates of the percent of
asthmatic or all school age children
likely to experience exposures at and
above the benchmark level of 0.070 ppm
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ranges from about 1 percent up to about
40 percent across the 12 urban areas
upon just meeting the current standard
based on the 2002 simulation; the 2004
simulation yielded estimates that range
from about 0 up to about 7 percent. The
Administrator judges it is important to
recognize the substantial year-to-year
and city-to-city variability in
considering these estimates.
With regard to the results of the risk
assessment, as discussed above, the
Administrator recognizes that a
simulation of just meeting the current
standard in the cities included in the
assessment indicate that the estimated
risk is lower for all of the health
endpoints evaluated. In considering the
adequacy of the current standard, the
Administrator has focused on the risks
estimated to remain upon just meeting
the current standard. Based on the
aggregate risk estimates summarized
above in Table 2 (section II.B.2 of this
notice), the Administrator observes that
upon just meeting the current standard
based on the 2002 simulation,
approximately 8 percent of asthmatic
school age children across 5 urban areas
(ranging up to about 11 percent in the
city that receives relatively less
protection) and approximately 3 percent
of all school age children across 12
urban areas (ranging up to over 5
percent in the city that receives
relatively less protection) would still be
estimated to experience moderate or
greater lung function decrements one or
more times within an O3 season. The
Administrator recognizes that, as with
the estimates of exposures of concern,
there is substantial year-to-year and
city-to-city variability in these risk
estimates.
In addition to the percentage of
asthmatic or all children estimated to
experience 1 or more occurrences of an
effect, the Administrator recognizes that
some individuals are estimated to have
multiple occurrences. For example,
across all the cities in the assessment,
approximately 6 to 7 occurrences of
moderate or greater lung function
decrements per child are estimated to
occur in all children and approximately
8 to 10 occurrences are estimated to
occur in asthmatic children in an O3
season, even upon just meeting the
current standard. In the last review, a
general consensus view of the adversity
of such responses emerged as the
frequency of occurrences increases, with
the judgment that repeated occurrences
of moderate responses, even in
otherwise healthy individuals, may be
considered adverse since they may well
set the stage for more serious illness.
The Administrator continues to support
this view.
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Large lung function decrements (i.e.,
≥20 percent FEV1 decrement) would
likely interfere with normal activities in
many healthy individuals, therefore
single occurrences would be considered
to be adverse. In people with asthma,
large lung function responses (i.e., ≥ 20
percent FEV1 decrement), would likely
interfere with normal activities for most
individuals and would also increase the
likelihood that these individuals would
use additional medication or seek
medical treatment. Not only would
single occurrences be considered to be
adverse to asthmatic individuals under
the ATS definition, but they also would
be cause for medical concern for some
individuals. Upon just meeting the
current standard based on the 2002
simulation, close to 1 percent of
asthmatic and all school age children
are estimated to experience one or more
occurrences of large lung function
decrements in the aggregate across 5 and
12 urban areas, respectively, with close
to 2 percent of both asthmatic and all
school age children estimated to
experience such effects in the city that
receives relatively less protection from
this standard. These estimates translate
into approximately 500,000 occurrences
of large lung function decrements in all
children across 12 urban areas, and
about 40,000 occurrences in asthmatic
children across just 5 urban areas upon
just meeting the current standard based
on the 2002 simulation; the 2004
simulation yielded estimates that
translate into approximately 160,000
and 10,000 such occurrences in all
children and asthmatic children,
respectively.
Upon just meeting the current
standard based on the 2002 simulation,
the estimate of the O3-related risk of
respiratory symptom days in moderate
to severe asthmatic children in the
Boston area is about 8,000 symptom
days; the 2004 simulation yielded an
estimate of about 6,000 such symptoms
days. These estimates translate into as
many as one symptom day in 6, and one
symptom day in 8, respectively, that are
attributable to O3 exposure during the
O3 season of the total number of
symptom days associated with all
causes of respiratory symptoms in
asthmatic children during those years.
The estimated O3-related risk of
respiratory-related hospital admissions
upon just meeting the current standard
based on the 2002 simulation is greater
than 500 hospital admissions in the
New York City area alone, or about 1.5
percent of the total incidence of
respiratory-related admissions
associated with all causes; the 2004
simulation yielded an estimate of
approximately 400 such hospital
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admissions. For nonaccidental
mortality, just meeting the current
standard based on the 2002 simulation
results in an estimated incidence of
from 0.3 to 2.4 per 100,000 population;
the 2004 simulation resulted in an
estimated incidence of from 0.3 to 1.2
per 100,000 population. Estimates for
cardiorespiratory mortality show similar
patterns. (Abt Associates, 2007, Table 4–
26).
The Administrator recognizes that in
considering the estimates of the
proportion of population affected and
the number of occurrences of those
specific health effects that are included
in the risk assessment, these limited
estimates based on 2002 and 2004
simulations are indicative of a much
broader array of O3-related health
endpoints that are part of a ‘‘pyramid of
effects’’ (discussed above in section
II.A.4.d) that include various indicators
of morbidity that could not be included
in the risk assessment (e.g., school
absences, increased medication use,
emergency department visits) and
which primarily affect members of atrisk groups. Moreover, the
Administrator notes that the CASAC
Panel supported a qualitative
consideration of the much broader array
of O3-related health endpoints, and
specifically referred to respiratory
emergency department visits in
asthmatics and people with other lung
diseases, increased medication use, and
increased respiratory symptoms
reported at exposure levels well below
the current standard.
The Administrator believes the
exposure and risk estimates discussed
in the Staff Paper and summarized
above are important from a public
health perspective and are indicative of
potential exposures and risks to at-risk
groups. In reaching this proposed
judgment, the Administrator considered
the following factors: (1) The estimates
of numbers of persons exposed at and
above the 0.070 ppm benchmark level;
(2) the risk estimates of the proportion
of the population and number of
occurrences of various health effects in
areas upon just meeting the current
standard; (3) the year-to-year and cityto-city variability in both the exposure
and risk estimates; (4) the uncertainties
in these estimates; and (5) recognition
that there is a broader array of O3related adverse health outcomes for
which risk estimates could not be
quantified (that are part of a broader
‘‘pyramid of effects’’) and that the scope
of the assessment was limited to just a
sample of urban areas and to some but
not all at-risk populations, leading to an
incomplete estimation of public health
impacts associated with O3 exposures
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across the country. The Administrator
also notes that it was the unanimous
conclusion of the CASAC Panel that
there is no scientific justification for
retaining the current primary O3
standard, that the current standard is
not sufficiently health-protective with
an adequate margin of safety, and that
the standard needs to be substantially
reduced to protect human health,
particularly in at-risk subpopulations.
Based on all of these considerations,
the Administrator proposes that the
current O3 standard is not requisite to
protect public health with an adequate
margin of safety because it does not
provide sufficient protection and that
revision would result in increased
public health protection, especially for
members of at-risk groups.
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D. Conclusions on the Elements of the
Primary Standard
1. Indicator
In the last review EPA focused on a
standard for O3 as the most appropriate
surrogate for ambient photochemical
oxidants. In this review, while the
complex atmospheric chemistry in
which O3 plays a key role has been
highlighted, no alternative to O3 has
been advanced as being a more
appropriate surrogate for ambient
photochemical oxidants.
The Staff Paper (section 2.2.2) notes
that it is generally recognized that
control of ambient O3 levels provides
the best means of controlling
photochemical oxidants. Among the
photochemical oxidants, the acute
exposure chamber, panel, and field
epidemiological human health database
provides specific evidence for O3 at
levels commonly reported in the
ambient air, in part because few other
photochemical oxidants are routinely
measured. However, recent
investigations on copollutant
interactions have used simulated urban
photochemical oxidant mixes. These
investigations suggest the need for
similar studies to help in understanding
the biological basis for effects observed
in epidemiological studies that are
associated with air pollutant mixtures,
where O3 is used as the surrogate for the
mix of photochemical oxidants. Meeting
the O3 standard can be expected to
provide some degree of protection
against potential health effects that may
be independently associated with other
photochemical oxidants but which are
not discernable from currently available
studies indexed by O3 alone. Since the
precursor emissions that lead to the
formation of O3 generally also lead to
the formation of other photochemical
oxidants, measures leading to
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reductions in population exposures to
O3 can generally be expected to lead to
reductions in population exposures to
other photochemical oxidants.
The Staff Paper notes that while the
new body of time-series epidemiological
evidence cannot resolve questions about
the relative contribution of other
photochemical oxidant species to the
range of morbidity and mortality effects
associated with O3 in these types of
studies, control of ambient O3 levels is
generally understood to provide the best
means of controlling photochemical
oxidants in general, and thus of
protecting against effects that may be
associated with individual species and/
or the broader mix of photochemical
oxidants, independent of effects
specifically related to O3.
In its letter to the Administrator, the
CASAC O3 Panel noted that O3 is ‘‘the
key indicator of the extent of oxidative
chemistry and serves to integrate
multiple pollutants.’’ CASAC also stated
that ‘‘although O3 itself has direct effects
on human health and ecosystems, it can
also be considered as an indicator of the
mixture of photochemical oxidants and
of the oxidizing potency of the
atmosphere’’ (Henderson, 2006c, p. 9).
Based on the available information,
and consistent with the views of EPA
staff and the CASAC, the Administrator
proposes to continue to use O3 as the
indicator for a standard that is intended
to address effects associated with
exposure to O3, alone or in combination
with related photochemical oxidants. In
so doing, the Administrator recognizes
that measures leading to reductions in
population exposures to O3 will also
reduce exposures to other
photochemical oxidants.
2. Averaging Time
a. Short-Term and Prolonged (1 to 8
Hours)
The current 8-hour averaging time for
the primary O3 NAAQS was set in 1997.
At that time, the decision to revise the
averaging time of the primary standard
from 1 to 8 hours was supported by the
following key observations and
conclusions:
(1) The 1-hour averaging time of the
previous NAAQS was originally
selected primarily on the basis of health
effects associated with short-term (i.e.,
1- to 3-hour) exposures.
(2) Substantial health effects
information was available for the 1997
review that demonstrated associations
between a wide range of health effects
(e.g., moderate to large lung function
decrements, moderate to severe
symptoms and pulmonary
inflammation) and prolonged (i.e., 6- to
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8-hour) exposures below the level of the
then current 1-hour NAAQS.
(3) Results of the quantitative risk
analyses showed that reductions in risks
from both short-term and prolonged
exposures could be achieved through a
primary standard with an averaging
period of either 1 or 8 hours. Thus
establishing both a 1-hour and an 8-hour
standard would not be necessary to
reduce risks associated with the full
range of observed health effects.
(4) The 8-hour averaging time is more
directly associated with health effects of
concern at lower O3 concentrations than
the 1-hour averaging time. It was thus
the consensus of CASAC ‘‘that an 8hour standard was more appropriate for
a human health-based standard than a 1hour standard.’’ (Wolff, 1995)
(5) An 8-hour averaging results in a
significantly more uniformly protective
national standard than the then current
1-hour standard.
(6) An 8-hour averaging time
effectively limits both 1- and 8-hour
exposures of concern.
In looking at the new information that
is discussed in section 7.6.2 of the
current Criteria Document, the Staff
Paper noted that epidemiological
studies have used various averaging
periods for O3 concentrations, most
commonly 1-hour, 8-hour and 24-hour
averages. As described more specifically
in sections 3.3 and 3.4 of the Staff
Paper, in general the results presented
from U.S. and Canadian studies show
no consistent difference for various
averaging times in different studies.
Because the 8-hour averaging time
continues to be more directly associated
with health effects of concern from
controlled human exposure studies at
lower concentrations than do shorter
averaging periods, the Staff Paper did
not evaluate alternative averaging times
in this review and did not conduct
exposure or risk assessments for
standards with averaging times other
than 8 hours.
The Staff Paper discusses an analysis
of a recent three-year period of air
quality data (2002 to 2004) which was
conducted to determine whether the
comparative 1- and 8-hour air quality
patterns that were observed in the last
review continue to be observed based on
more recent air quality data. This
updated air quality analysis (McCluney,
2007) is very consistent with the
analysis done in the last review in that
it indicates that only two urban areas of
the U.S. have such ‘‘peaky’’ air quality
patterns such that the ratio of 1-hour to
8-hour design values is greater than 1.5.
This suggests that, based on recent air
quality data, it is reasonable to again
conclude that an 8-hour average
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standard at or below the current level
would generally be expected to provide
protection equal to or greater than the
previous 1-hour standard of 0.12 ppm in
almost all urban areas. Thus, the Staff
Paper again concluded that setting a
standard with an 8-hour averaging time
can effectively limit both 1- and 8-hour
exposures of concern and is appropriate
to provide adequate and more uniform
protection of public health from both
short-term and prolonged exposures to
O3 in the ambient air.
In its letter to the Administrator, the
CASAC O3 Panel supported the
continued use of an 8-hour averaging
time for the primary O3 standard
(Henderson, 2006c, p. 2), as did many
commenters. Some other commenters
expressed the view that consideration
should be given to setting or reinstating
a 1-hour standard, in addition to
maintaining the use of an 8-hour
averaging time, to protect people in
those parts of the country with
relatively more ‘‘peaky’’ exposure
profiles. These commenters point out
that when controlled exposure studies
using triangular exposure patterns (with
relatively higher 1-hour peaks) have
been compared to constant exposure
patterns with the same aggregate O3
dose (in terms of concentration x time),
‘‘peaky’’ exposure patterns are seen to
lead to higher risks. The California Air
Resources Board made particular note of
this point, expressing the view that a 1hour standard would more closely
represent actual exposures, in that many
people spend only 1 to 2 hours a day
outdoors, and that it would be better
matched to O3 concentration profiles
along the coasts where O3 levels are
typically high for shorter averaging
periods than 8 hours.
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b. Long-term
During the last review, there was a
large animal toxicological database for
consideration that provided clear
evidence of associations between longterm (e.g., from several months to years)
exposures and lung tissue damage, with
additional evidence of reduced lung
elasticity and accelerated loss of lung
function. However, there was no
corresponding evidence for humans,
and the state of the science had not
progressed sufficiently to allow
quantitative extrapolation of the animal
study findings to humans. For these
reasons, consideration of a separate
long-term primary O3 standard was not
judged to be appropriate at that time,
recognizing that the 8-hour standard
would act to limit long-term exposures
as well as short-term and prolonged
exposures.
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Taking into consideration the
currently available evidence on longterm O3 exposures, discussed above in
section II.A.2.a.ii, the Staff Paper
concludes that a health-based standard
with a longer-term averaging time than
8 hours is not warranted at this time.
The Staff Paper notes that, while
potentially more serious health effects
have been identified as being associated
with longer-term exposure studies of
laboratory animals and in epidemiology
studies, there remains substantial
uncertainty regarding how these data
could be used quantitatively to develop
a basis for setting a long-term health
standard. Because long-term air quality
patterns would be improved in areas
coming into attainment with an 8-hour
standard, the potential risk of health
effects associated with long-term
exposures would be reduced in any area
meeting an 8-hour standard. Thus, the
Staff Paper did not recommend
consideration of a long-term, healthbased standard at this time.
In its final letter to the Administrator,
the CASAC O3 Panel offered no views
on the long-term exposure evidence, nor
did it suggest that consideration of a
primary O3 standard with a long-term
averaging time was appropriate. In fact,
the CASAC O3 Panel agreed with the
choice of an 8-hour averaging time for
the primary O3 NAAQS suggested by
Agency staff (Henderson, 2007).
Similarly, no commenters expressed
support for considering such a longterm standard.
c. Administrator’s Conclusions on
Averaging Time
In considering the information
discussed above, CASAC views and
public comments, the Administrator
concludes that a standard with an 8hour averaging time can effectively limit
both 1- and 8-hour exposures of concern
and that an 8-hour averaging time is
appropriate to provide adequate and
more uniform protection of public
health from both short-term (1- to 3hour) and prolonged (6- to 8-hour)
exposures to O3 in the ambient air. This
conclusion is based on the observations
summarized above, particularly: (1) The
fact that the 8-hour averaging time is
more directly associated with health
effects of concern at lower O3
concentrations than are averaging times
of shorter duration and (2) results from
quantitative risk analyses showing that
attaining an 8-hour standard reduces the
risk of experiencing health effects
associated with both 8-hour and shorter
duration exposures. Furthermore, the
Administrator observes that the CASAC
O3 Panel agreed with the choice of
averaging time (Henderson, 2007).
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Therefore, the Administrator proposes
to retain the 8-hour averaging time and
is not proposing a separate 1-hour
standard. The Administrator also
concludes that a standard with a longterm averaging time is not warranted at
this time.
3. Form
In 1997, the primary O3 NAAQS was
changed from a ‘‘1-expectedexceedance’’ form per year over three
years 51 to a concentration-based
statistic, specifically the 3-year average
of the annual fourth-highest daily
maximum 8-hour concentrations. The
principal advantage of the
concentration-based form is that it is
more directly related to the ambient O3
concentrations that are associated with
the health effects. With a concentrationbased form, days on which higher O3
concentrations occur would weigh
proportionally more than days with
lower concentrations, since the actual
concentrations are used in determining
whether the standard is attained. That
is, given that there is a continuum of
effects associated with exposures to
varying levels of O3, the extent to which
public health is affected by exposure to
ambient O3 is related to the actual
magnitude of the O3 concentration, not
just whether the concentration is above
a specified level.
During the 1997 review, consideration
was given to a range of alternative
forms, including the second-, third-,
fourth- and fifth-highest daily maximum
8-hour concentrations in an O3 season,
recognizing that the public health risks
associated with exposure to a pollutant
without a clear, discernable threshold
can be appropriately addressed through
a standard that allows for multiple
exceedances to provide increased
stability, but that also significantly
limits the number of days on which the
level may be exceeded and the
magnitude of such exceedances.
Consideration was given to setting a
standard with a form that would
provide a margin of safety against
possible, but uncertain chronic effects,
and would also provide greater stability
to ongoing control programs. The
fourth-highest daily maximum was
selected because it was decided that the
differences in the degree of protection
against potential chronic effects
afforded by the alternatives within the
range were not well enough understood
to use any such differences as a basis for
51 The 1-expected-exceedance form essentially
requires that the fourth-highest air quality value in
3 years, based on adjustments for missing data, be
less than or equal to the level of the standard for
the standard to be met at an air quality monitoring
site.
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choosing the most restrictive forms. On
the other hand, the relatively large
percentage of sites that would
experience O3 peaks well above 0.080
ppm and the number of days on which
the level of the standard may be
exceeded, even when attaining a fifthhighest 0.080 ppm concentration-based
standard, argued against choosing that
form.
As an initial matter, the Staff Paper
considered whether it is appropriate to
continue to specify the level of the O3
standard to the nearest hundredth (two
decimal places) ppm, or whether the
precision with which ambient O3
concentrations are measured supports
specifying the standard level to the
thousandth ppm (i.e., to the part per
billion (ppb)). The Staff Paper discusses
an analysis conducted by EPA staff to
determine the impact of ambient O3
measurement error on calculated 8-hour
average O3 design value concentrations,
which are compared to the level of the
standard to determine whether the
standard is attained (Cox and Camalier,
2006). The results of this analysis
suggest that instrument measurement
error, or possible instrument bias,
contribute very little to the uncertainty
in design values. More specifically,
measurement imprecision was
determined to contribute less than 1 ppb
to design value uncertainty, and a
simulation study indicated that
randomly occurring instrument bias
could contribute approximately 1 ppb.
EPA staff interpreted this analysis as
being supportive of specifying the level
of the standard to the nearest
thousandth ppm. If the current standard
were to be specified to this degree of
precision, the current standard would
effectively be at a level of 0.084 ppm,
reflecting the data rounding conventions
that are part of the definition of the
current 0.080 ppm 8-hour standard.
This information was provided to the
CASAC O3 Panel and made available to
the public.
In evaluating alternative forms for the
primary standard in conjunction with
specific standard levels, the Staff Paper
considered the adequacy of the public
health protection provided by the
combination of the level and form to be
the foremost consideration. In addition,
the Staff Paper recognized that it is
important to have a form of the standard
that is stable and insulated from the
impacts of extreme meteorological
events that are conducive to O3
formation. Such instability can have the
effect of reducing public health
protection, because frequent shifting in
and out of attainment due to
meteorological conditions can disrupt
an area’s ongoing implementation plans
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and associated control programs.
Providing more stability is one of the
reasons that EPA moved to a
concentration-based form in 1997.
The Staff Paper considered two
concentration-based forms of the
standard: the nth-highest maximum
concentration and a percentile-based
form. A percentile-based statistic is
useful for comparing datasets of varying
length because it samples approximately
the same place in the distribution of air
quality values, whether the dataset is
several months or several years long.
However, a percentile-based form would
allow more days with higher air quality
values in locations with longer O3
seasons relative to places with shorter
O3 seasons. An nth-highest maximum
concentration form would more
effectively ensure that people who live
in areas with different length O3 seasons
receive the same degree of public health
protection. For this reason, the exposure
and risk analyses were based on a form
specified in terms of an nth-highest
concentration, with n ranging from 3
to 5.
The results of some of these analyses
are shown in the Staff Paper (Figures 6–
1 through 6–4) and specifically
discussed in chapter 6. These figures
illustrate the estimated percent change
in risk estimates for the incidence of
moderate or greater decrements in lung
function (≥15 percent FEV1) in all
school age children and moderate or
greater lung function decrements (≥10
percent FEV1) in asthmatic school age
children, associated with going from
meeting the current standard to meeting
alternative standards with alternative
forms based on the 2002 and 2004
simulations. Figures 6–5 and 6–6
illustrate the estimated percent of
change in the estimated incidence of
non-accidental mortality, associated
with going from meeting the current
standard to meeting alternative
standards, based on the 2002 and 2004
simulations. These results are generally
representative of the patterns found in
all of the analyses. The estimated
reductions in risk associated with
different forms of the standard, ranging
from third- to fourth-highest daily
maximum concentrations at 0.084 ppm,
and from third- to fifth-highest daily
maximum concentrations at 0.074 ppm,
are generally less than the estimated
reductions associated with the different
levels that were analyzed. As seen in
these figures, there is much city-to-city
variability, particularly in the percent
changes associated with going from a
fourth-highest to third-highest form at
the current level of 0.084 ppm, and with
estimated reductions associated with
the fifth-highest form at a 0.074 ppm
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level. In most cities, there are generally
only small differences in the estimated
reductions in risks associated with the
third- to fifth-highest forms at a level of
0.074 ppm simulated using 2002 and
2004 O3 monitoring data.
The Staff Paper noted that there is not
a clear health-based threshold for
selecting a particular nth-highest daily
maximum form of the standard from
among the ones analyzed. It also noted
that the changes in the form considered
in the analyses result in only small
differences in the estimated reductions
in risks in most cities, although in some
cities larger differences are estimated.
The Staff Paper concluded that a range
of concentration-based forms from the
third- to the fifth-highest daily
maximum 8-hour average concentration
is appropriate for consideration in
setting the standard. Given that there is
a continuum of effects associated with
exposures to varying levels of O3, the
extent to which public health is affected
by exposure to ambient O3 is related to
the actual magnitude of the O3
concentration, not just whether the
concentration is above a specified level.
The principal advantage of a
concentration-based form is that it is
more directly related to the ambient O3
concentrations that are associated with
health effects. Robust, concentrationbased forms, in the range of the thirdto fifth-highest daily maximum 8-hour
average concentration, including the
current 4th-highest daily maximum
form, minimize the inherent lack of
year-to-year stability of exceedancebased forms and provide insulation
from the impacts of extreme
meteorological events. Such instability
can have the effect of reducing public
health protection by disrupting ongoing
implementation plans and associated
control programs.
With regard to the precision of the
standard, in their letter to the
Administrator, the CASAC concluded
that current monitoring technology
‘‘allows accurate measurement of O3
concentrations with a precision of parts
per billion’’ (Henderson, 2006c). The
CASAC recommended that the
specification of the level of the O3
standard should reflect this degree of
precision (Henderson, 2006c). Some
public comments supported specifying
the standard in terms of parts per
billion, or to three decimal places if
specified in terms of parts per million.52
Other public commenters stated that the
52 The Staff Paper notes that the 8-hour O
3
standard adopted by the State of California in 2006
is specified to the nearest thousandth part per
million (at a level of 0.070 ppm) (https://
www.arb.ca.gov/research/aaqs/ozone-rs/ozoners.htm).
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basis for changing the current rounding
procedures is not supported by a
complete analysis of the O3 compliance
monitoring procedures, including
consideration of uncertainty related to
humidity effects and interferences from
aromatic compounds in the monitoring
of O3 levels.
With regard to the form of the
standard, in their letter to the
Administrator, CASAC recommended
that ‘‘a range of concentration-based
forms from the third-to the fifth-highest
daily maximum 8-hour average
concentration’’ be considered
(Henderson, 2006c, p. 5). Some public
commenters that expressed the view
that the current primary O3 standard is
not adequate also submitted comments
that supported a more health-protective
form of the standard than the current
form (e.g., a second-or third-highest
daily maximum form). Commenters who
expressed the view that the current
standard is adequate did not provide
any views on alternative forms that
would be appropriate for consideration
should the Administrator consider
revisions to the standard.
The Administrator proposes that the
level of the standard be specified to the
nearest thousandth ppm, based on the
staff’s analysis and conclusions
discussed in the Staff Paper that current
monitoring technology allows accurate
measurement of O3 to support
specifying the 8-hour standard to this
degree of precision, and on CASAC’s
recommendation with respect to this
aspect of the standard. The
Administrator invites comment on this
proposal to specify the standard to the
thousandth ppm.
The Administrator recognizes that
there is not a clear health-based
threshold for selecting a particular nthhighest daily maximum form of the
standard from among the ones analyzed
in the Staff Paper, and that the current
form of the standard provides a stable
target for implementing programs to
improve air quality. The Administrator
also agrees that the adequacy of the
public health protection provided by the
combination of the level and form is a
foremost consideration. Based on this,
the Administrator proposes to retain the
form of the current standard, 4th-highest
daily maximum 8-hour average
concentration, recognizing that the
public health protection that would be
provided by the standard is based on
combining this form with the level
discussed below. Mindful of the
recommendation of the O3 CASAC
Panel and the view expressed by
commenters, the Administrator also
invites comment on two alternative
forms of the standard, the third- and the
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fifth-highest daily maximum 8-hour
average concentrations.
4. Level
a. Evidence and Exposure/Risk Based
Considerations in the Staff Paper
The approach used in the Staff Paper
as a basis for staff recommendations on
standard levels builds upon and
broadens the general approach used by
EPA in the last review. This approach
reflects the more extensive and stronger
body of evidence now available on a
broader range of health effects
associated with exposure to O3,
including: (1) Additional respiratoryrelated endpoints; (2) new information
about the mechanisms underlying
respiratory morbidity effects supporting
a judgment that the link between O3
exposure and these effects is causal; (3)
newly identified cardiovascular-related
health endpoints from animal
toxicology, and controlled human
exposures studies that are highly
suggestive that O3 can directly or
indirectly contribute to cardiovascular
morbidity, and (4) new U.S. multi-city
time series studies, single city studies,
and several meta-analyses of these
studies that provide relatively strong
evidence for associations between shortterm O3 exposures and all-cause
(nonaccidental) mortality, at levels
below the current primary standard: as
well as (5) evidence of increased
susceptibility in people with asthma
and other lung diseases. In evaluating
evidence-based and exposure/risk-based
considerations, the Staff Paper
considered: (1) The ranges of levels of
alternative standards that are supported
by the evidence, and the uncertainties
and limitations in that evidence and (2)
the extent to which specific levels of
alternative standards reduce the
estimated exposures of concern and
risks attributable to O3 and other
photochemical oxidants, and the
uncertainties associated with the
estimated exposure and risk reductions.
In taking into account evidence-based
considerations, the Staff Paper
evaluated available evidence from
controlled human exposure studies and
epidemiological studies, as well as the
uncertainties and limitations in that
evidence. In particular, it focused on the
extent to which controlled human
exposure studies provide evidence of
lowest-observed-effects levels and the
extent to which epidemiological studies
provide evidence of associations that
extend down to the lower levels of O3
concentrations observed in the studies
or some indication of potential effect
thresholds in terms of 8-hour average O3
concentrations.
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In considering the available
controlled human exposure studies, as
discussed above in section
II.A.2.a.i(a)(i), two new studies are
notable in that they are the only
controlled human exposure studies that
examined respiratory effects, including
lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms, in healthy adults
at lower exposure levels than had
previously been examined. EPA’s
reanalysis of the data from the most
recent study shows small group mean
decrements in lung function responses
to be statistically significant at the 0.060
ppm exposure level, while the author’s
analysis did not yield statistically
significant lung function responses (but
did yield some statistically significant
respiratory symptom responses toward
the end of the exposure period).
Notably, these studies report a small
percentage of subjects experiencing lung
function decrements (> 10 percent) at
the 0.060 ppm exposure level. These
studies provide very limited evidence of
O3-related lung function decrements
and respiratory symptoms at this lower
exposure level.
In considering controlled human
exposure studies of pulmonary
inflammation, airway responsiveness,
and impaired host defense capabilities,
the Staff Paper notes that these studies
provide evidence of a lowest-observedeffects level for such effects in healthy
adults at prolonged moderate exertion of
0.080 ppm. As discussed above, these
physiological effects have been linked to
aggravation of asthma and increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection,
potentially leading to increased
medication use, increased school and
work absences, increased visits to
doctors’ offices and emergency
departments, and increased hospital
admissions. Further, pulmonary
inflammation is related to increased
cellular permeability in the lung, which
may be a mechanism by which O3
exposure can lead to cardiovascular
system effects, and to potential chronic
effects such as chronic bronchitis or
long-term damage to the lungs that can
lead to reduced quality of life. These are
all indicators of adverse O3-related
morbidity effects, which are consistent
with and lend plausibility to the adverse
morbidity effects and mortality effects
observed in epidemiological studies.
In considering epidemiological
studies, the Staff Paper first recognizes
that the available evidence neither
supports nor refutes the existence of
effect thresholds at the population level
for morbidity and mortality effects and
that if a population threshold level does
exist, it would likely be well below the
level of the current O3 standard and
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possibly within the range of background
levels. As discussed above (and more
fully in the Staff Paper in chapter 3 and
the Criteria Document in chapter 7), a
number of studies reported some
suggestive evidence of possible
thresholds for morbidity and mortality
outcomes in terms of 24-hour, 8-hour,
and 1-hour averaging times. These
results, taken together, provide some
indication of possible 8-hour average
threshold levels from below about 0.025
to 0.035 ppm up to approximately 0.050
ppm. Other studies, however, observe
linear concentration-response functions
suggesting no effect threshold. The Staff
Paper concludes that the statistically
significant associations between
ambient O3 concentrations and lung
function decrements, respiratory
symptoms, indicators of respiratory
morbidity including increased
emergency department visits and
hospitals admissions, and possibly
mortality reported in a large number of
studies likely extend down to ambient
O3 concentrations that are well below
the level of the current standard (EPA,
2007, p. 6–60). Toward the lower end of
the range of O3 concentrations observed
in such studies, ranging down to
background levels, however, the Staff
paper states that there is increasing
uncertainty as to whether the observed
associations remain plausibly related to
exposures to ambient O3, rather than to
the broader mix of air pollutants present
in the ambient atmosphere.
The Staff Paper also considered
studies that did subset analyses that
include only days with ambient O3
concentrations below the level of the
current standard, or below even lower
O3 concentrations, and continue to
report statistically significant
associations. Notably, as discussed
above, Bell et al. (2006) conducted a
subset analysis that continued to show
statistically significant associations even
when only days with a maximum 8hour average O3 concentration below a
value of approximately 0.061 ppm were
included.53 Also of note is the large
multi-city NCICAS (Mortimer et al.,
2002) that reported statistically
significant associations between
ambient O3 concentrations and lung
function decrements even when days
with 8-hour average O3 levels greater
than 0.080 ppm were excluded (which
consisted of less than 5 percent of the
days in the eight urban areas in the
study).
53 Bell
et al. (2006) referred to this level as being
approximately equivalent to 120 µg/m3, daily 8hour maximum, the World Health Organization
guideline and European Commission target value
for O3.
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Being mindful of the uncertainties
and limitations inherent in interpreting
the available evidence, the Staff Paper
states the view that the range of
alternative O3 standards for
consideration should take into account
information on lowest-observed-effects
levels in controlled human exposure
studies as well as indications of possible
effects thresholds reported in some
epidemiological studies and questions
of biological plausibility in attributing
associations observed down to
background levels to O3 exposures
alone. Based on the evidence and these
considerations, it concluded that the
upper end of the range of consideration
should be somewhat below 0.080 ppm,
the lowest-observed-effects level for
effects such as pulmonary
inflammation, increased airway
responsiveness and impaired hostdefense capabilities in healthy adults
while at prolonged moderate exertion.
The Staff Paper also concludes that the
lower end to the range of alternative O3
standards appropriate for consideration
should be the lowest-observed-effects
level for potentially adverse lung
function decrements and respiratory
symptoms in some healthy adults, 0.060
ppm.
In addition to the evidence-based
considerations informing staff
recommendations on alternative levels,
the Staff Paper also evaluated
quantitative exposures and health risks
estimated to occur upon meeting the
current and alternative standards.54 In
so doing, it presented the important
uncertainties and limitations associated
with these exposure and risk
assessments. For example, the Staff
Paper noted important uncertainties
affecting the exposure estimates are
related to modeling human activity
patterns over an O3 season (especially
repetitive exposures), modeling ambient
concentrations near roadways and
modeling building air exchange rates
which impact estimates of indoor O3
concentrations. With regard to the risk
assessment, important uncertainties
include, for example, those related to
exposure estimates for children engaged
in moderate or greater exertion, as well
as those related to estimation of
concentration-response functions,
specification of concentration-response
54 As described in the Staff Paper (section 4.5.8)
and discussed above, recent O3 air quality
distributions have been statistically adjusted to
simulate just meeting the current and selected
alternative standards. These simulations do not
represent predictions of when, whether, or how
areas might meet the specified standards. Modeling
that projects whether and how areas might attain
alternative standards in a future year is presented
in the Regulatory Impact Analysis being prepared
in connection with this rulemaking.
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models, the possible role of copollutants
in interpreting reported associations
with O3, and inferences of a likely
causal relationship between O3
exposure and nonaccidental mortality
(for risk estimates based on
epidemiological studies).
Beyond these uncertainties, the Staff
Paper also recognized important
limitations to the exposure and risk
analyses. For example, the Staff Paper
did not have sufficient information to
evaluate all relevant at-risk groups (e.g.,
outdoor workers) or all O3-related health
outcomes (e.g., increased medication
use, school absences, emergency
department visits), and the scope of the
Staff Paper analyses was generally
limited to estimating exposures and
risks in 12 urban areas across the U.S.,
and to only five or just one area for
some risk analyses. The Staff Paper
notes that it is clear that national-scale
public health impacts of ambient O3
exposures are much larger than the
quantitative estimates of O3-related
incidences of adverse health effects and
the numbers of children likely to
experience exposures of concern
associated with meeting the current or
alternative standards. On the other
hand, due to individual variability in
responsiveness, only a subset of
individuals who are estimated to
experience exposures of concern at and
above a specific benchmark level can be
expected to experience certain adverse
health effects, although susceptible
subpopulations such as those with
asthma are expected to be affected more
by such exposures than healthy
individuals. In taking these limitations
into account, the Staff Paper reflected
CASAC’s advice not to rely solely on the
results of the exposure and risk
assessments in considering alternative
standards, but also to place significant
weight on the body of evidence of O3related health effects in drawing
conclusions about an appropriate range
of levels for consideration.
The Staff Paper focused on alternative
standards with the same form as the
current O3 standard (i.e. the 0.074/4,
0.070/4 and 0.064/4 scenarios).55
Having concluded in the Staff Paper that
it was appropriate to consider a range of
standard levels from somewhat below
0.080 ppm down to as low as 0.060
ppm, the Staff Paper looked to results of
the analyses of exposure and risk for the
0.074/4 scenario to represent the public
health impacts of selecting a standard in
55 The abbreviated notation used to identify the
current and alternative standards in this section and
in the risk assessment section of the Staff Paper is
in terms of ppm and the nth highest daily
maximum 8-hour average. For example, the current
standard is identified as ‘‘0.084/4.’’
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the upper part of the range, the results
of analyses of the 0.070/4 scenario to
represent the impacts in the middle part
of the range, and the results of the
analyses of the 0.064/4 scenario to
represent the lower part of the range.
As discussed in section II.B.1 of this
notice, the exposure estimates presented
in the Staff Paper are for the number
and percent of all children and
asthmatic children exposed, and the
number of person-days (occurrences) of
exposures, with daily 8-hour maximum
exposures at or above several
benchmark levels while at intermittent
moderate or greater exertion. For
reasons discussed above in section
II.C.2, the Staff Paper focused on
exposures of concern at the 0.070 and
0.060 ppm benchmark levels for the
purpose of evaluating alternative
standard levels. As shown in the Table
1 in this notice, the percent of
population exposed at any given level is
very similar for all and asthmatic school
age children. Substantial year-to-year
variability in exposure estimates is
observed, ranging to over an order of
magnitude at the higher alternative
standard levels, in estimates of the
number of children and the number of
occurrences of exposures of concern at
both of these benchmark levels. The
Staff Paper also notes that there is
substantial city-to-city variability in
these estimates, and notes that it is
appropriate to consider not just the
aggregate estimates across all cities, but
also to consider the public health
impacts in cities that receive relatively
less protection from the alternative
standards.
As discussed in the Staff Paper, a
standard set at the upper part of the
range recommended by EPA staff (e.g.,
the 0.074/4 scenario) would result in an
aggregate estimate of about 4 percent of
all or asthmatic school age children
likely to experience exposures of
concern at the ≥0.070 ppm benchmark
level based on the 2002 simulation, a
year with relatively high O3 levels,
while the estimates range up to 12
percent of all or asthmatic school age
children in the single city with the least
degree of protection from this standard.
Using the 2004 simulation, a year with
relatively low O3 levels, exposures of
concern at this level are essentially
eliminated. At the benchmark level of
≥0.060 ppm, in aggregate using the 2002
simulation about 22 percent of all or
asthmatic school age children are
estimated to experience exposures of
concern; this estimate ranges up to
about 46 percent of all or asthmatic
school age children in the single city
with the least degree of protection from
this standard. Using the 2004
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simulation, exposures of concern at this
level are estimated to be substantially
lower. A standard set at this level is
estimated to reduce the number of all
and asthmatic school age children
estimated to experience one or more
moderate lung function decrements by
about 30 to 50 percent relative to the
current standard, with city-to-city
differences accounting for most of the
variability in estimates. A standard set
at this level is estimated to reduce nonaccidental mortality by about 10 to 40
percent, with most of the variability
occurring across the 12 city estimates.
Using the 2002 simulation, a standard
set at this level (the 0.074/4 scenario) is
estimated to reduce the incidence of
symptom days in children with
moderate to severe asthma in the Boston
area by about 1,000 days, a 15 percent
reduction relative to the current
standard. With this reduction, it is
estimated that about 1 respiratory
symptom day in 8 during the O3 season
would be attributable to O3 exposure.
Estimated incidence of respiratoryrelated hospital admissions was reduced
by 14 to 17 percent by a standard set at
this level relative to the current
standard, in the year with relatively
high and relatively low O3 air quality
levels respectively.
The Staff Paper notes that a standard
set at the middle part of the staffrecommended range, as indicated by the
estimates for the 0.070/4 scenario,
would reduce the exposures of concern
at the 0.070 ppm level substantially over
the current standard, resulting in an
aggregate estimate of about 1.5 to nearly
2 percent of all or asthmatic school age
children likely to experience exposures
of concern even using the 2002
simulation, and leaving approximately 5
percent or less of children likely to
experience exposures of concern in the
city with the least degree of protection.
Using the 2004 simulation, it essentially
eliminates exposures of concern at this
level. It reduces exposures of concern at
the 0.060 ppm benchmark level less so,
leaving larger percentages of all school
age children unprotected using the 2002
simulation (about 15 percent in
aggregate) or in the city with the least
protection from this standard (about 33
percent). However, using the 2004
simulation, it is estimated to reduce
exposures of concern at this benchmark
level to approximately 5 percent or less
of children even in the city with the
least degree of protection. It provides
considerable additional protection for
members of at-risk groups, over the
current O3 standard, against respiratory
morbidity effects such as lung function
decrements, respiratory symptom days
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and hospital admissions, as well as nonaccidental mortality.
A standard set at lower part of the
staff-recommended range (e.g., the
0.064/4 scenario), would result in an
aggregate estimate of less than 0.5
percent of all and asthmatic school age
children likely to experience exposures
of concern at the 0.070 ppm benchmark
level using the 2002 simulation and
only about 1 percent of all and
asthmatic school age children in the city
with the least degree of protection from
this standard. At the benchmark level of
0.060 ppm, in aggregate using the 2002
simulation about 5 percent of all and
asthmatic school age children are
estimated to experience exposures of
concern; this number ranges up to 15
percent of all and asthmatic school age
children in the city with the least degree
of protection from this standard. A
standard set at this level is estimated to
reduce the number of all and asthmatic
school age children estimated to
experience one or more moderate lung
function decrements by about 40 to 75
percent over the current standard, and
non-accidental mortality by about 25 to
75 percent, with most of the variability
occurring across the 12 city estimates.
A standard set at the 0.064/4 scenario
is estimated, based on the 2002
simulation, to reduce the incidence of
symptom days in children with
moderate to severe asthma in the Boston
area by about 1,900 days, about a 25 to
30 percent reduction over the current
standard. But even with this reduction,
it is estimated that 1 respiratory
symptom day in 10 during the O3 season
is attributable to O3 exposure. Estimated
incidence of respiratory-related hospital
admissions would be reduced by 30 to
35 percent over the current standard, a
reduction of 125 to 150 hospital
admissions in the New York City area
alone, using the 2002 and 2004
simulations, respectively.
b. CASAC Views
As stated in its letter to the
Administrator, ‘‘the CASAC
unanimously recommends that the
current primary ozone NAAQS be
revised and that the level that should be
considered for the revised standard be
from 0.060 to 0.070 ppm’’ (Henderson,
2006c, p. 5). This recommendation
follows from its more general
recommendation, discussed above, that
the current standard of 0.084 ppm needs
to be substantially reduced to be
protective of human health, particularly
in at-risk subpopulations. The CASAC
Panel noted that beneficial reductions in
some adverse health effects were
estimated to occur upon meeting the
lowest standard level (0.064 ppm)
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considered in the risk assessment
(Henderson, 2006c, p. 4). The lower end
of this range reflects CASAC’s views
that ‘‘[W]hile data exist that adverse
health effects may occur at levels lower
than 0.060 ppm, these data are less
certain and achievable gains in
protecting human health can be
accomplished through lowering the
ozone NAAQS to a level between 0.060
and 0.070 ppm.’’ (id.). In a subsequent
letter to the Administrator, the CASAC
reiterated that the Panel members ‘‘were
unanimous in recommending that the
level of the current primary ozone
standard should be lowered from 0.08
ppm to no greater than 0.070 ppm’’
(Henderson, 2007, p. 2). Further, the
CASAC Panel expressed the view that
the Criteria Document and Staff Paper,
together with the information in its
earlier letter, provide ‘‘overwhelming
scientific evidence for this
recommendation,’’ and emphasized the
Clean Air Act requirement that the
primary standard must be set to protect
the public health with an adequate
margin of safety (id.).
c. Administrator’s Proposed
Conclusions on Level
For the reasons discussed below, and
taking into account information and
assessments presented in the Criteria
Document and Staff Paper, the advice
and recommendations of CASAC, and
the public comments to date, the
Administrator proposes to revise the
existing 8-hour primary O3 standard.
Specifically, the Administrator proposes
to revise (1) The level of the primary O3
standard to within a range from 0.070 to
0.075 ppm and (2) the degree of
precision to which the level of the
standard is specified to the thousandth
ppm.
However, in recognition of alternative
views of the science, the exposure and
risk assessments and the uncertainties
inherent in these assessments, and the
appropriate policy responses based on
the currently available information, the
Administrator also solicits comments on
whether to proceed instead with: (1)
Alternative levels of the 8-hour primary
O3 standard, within ranges of below
0.070 ppm down to 0.060 ppm and
above 0.075 ppm up to and including
retaining the current standard; (2)
alternative forms of the standard,
including the 3-year average of the
annual third- and fifth-highest daily
maximum 8-hour average O3
concentrations; and (3) retaining the
degree of precision of the current
standard (to the nearest hundredth
ppm). Based on the comments received
and the accompanying rationales, the
Administrator may adopt other
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standards within the range of the
alternative levels and forms identified
above in lieu of the standards he is
proposing today.
The Administrator’s consideration of
alternative levels of the primary O3
standard builds on his proposal,
discussed above, that the overall body of
evidence indicates that the current 8hour O3 standard is not requisite to
protect public health with an adequate
margin of safety because it does not
provide sufficient protection and that
revision would result in increased
public health protection, especially for
members of at-risk groups, notably
including asthmatic children and other
people with lung disease, as well as all
children and older adults, especially
those active outdoors, and outdoor
workers, against an array of adverse
health effects. These effects range from
health outcomes that could be
quantified in the risk assessment,
including decreased lung function,
respiratory symptoms, serious
indicators of respiratory morbidity such
as hospital admissions for respiratory
causes, and nonaccidental mortality, to
health outcomes that could not be
directly estimated, including pulmonary
inflammation, increased medication
use, emergency department visits, and
possibly cardiovascular-related
morbidity effects. In reaching a
proposed decision about the level of the
O3 primary standard, the Administrator
has considered: the evidence-based
considerations from the Criteria
Document and the Staff Paper; the
results of the exposure and risk
assessments discussed above and in the
Staff Paper, giving weight to the
exposure and risk assessments as judged
appropriate; CASAC advice and
recommendations, as reflected in
discussions of drafts of the Criteria
Document and Staff Paper at public
meetings, in separate written comments,
and in CASAC’s letters to the
Administrator; EPA staff
recommendations; and public
comments received during the
development of these documents, either
in connection with CASAC meetings or
separately. In considering what 8-hour
standard is requisite to protect public
health with an adequate margin of
safety, the Administrator is mindful that
this choice requires judgment based on
an interpretation of the evidence and
other information that neither overstates
nor understates the strength and
limitations of the evidence and
information nor the appropriate
inferences to be drawn.
The Administrator notes that the most
certain evidence of adverse health
effects from exposure to O3 comes from
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the clinical studies, and that the large
bulk of this evidence derives from
studies of exposures at levels of 0.080
and above. At those levels, there is
consistent evidence of lung function
decrements and respiratory symptoms
in healthy young adults, as well as
evidence of inflammation and other
medically significant airway responses.
Moreover there is no evidence that the
0.080 ppm level is a threshold for these
effects. Although the Administrator
takes note of the very limited new
evidence of lung function decrements
and respiratory symptoms in some
healthy individuals at the 0.060 ppm
exposure level, he judges this evidence
too limited to support a primary focus
at this level. The Administrator also
notes that clinical studies, supported by
epidemiological studies, provide
important new evidence that people
with asthma are likely to experience
larger and more serious effects than
healthy people from exposure to O3.
There are also epidemiological studies
that provide evidence of statistically
significant associations between shortterm O3 exposures and more serious
health effects such as emergency
department visits and hospital
admissions, and premature mortality, in
areas that likely would have met the
current standard. There are also many
epidemiological studies done in areas
that likely would not have met the
current standard but which nonetheless
report statistically significant
associations that generally extend down
to ambient O3 concentrations that are
below the level of the current standard.
Further, there are a few studies that
have examined subsets of data that
include only days with ambient O3
concentrations below the level of the
current standard, or below even much
lower O3 concentrations, and continue
to report statistically significant
associations with respiratory morbidity
outcomes and mortality. In considering
this evidence, the Administrator notes
that the extent to which these studies
provide evidence of causal relationships
with exposures to O3 alone down to the
lowest levels observed remains
uncertain. To further inform the
interpretation of this evidence, EPA
seeks comment on the degree to which
associations observed in
epidemiological studies reflect causal
relationships between important health
endpoints and exposure to O3 alone at
ambient O3 levels below the current
standard.
Therefore, the Administrator judges
that revising the current standard to
protect public health with an adequate
margin of safety is warranted, and
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would reduce risk to public health,
based on: (1) The strong body of clinical
evidence in healthy people at exposure
levels of 0.080 and above of lung
function decrements, respiratory
symptoms, pulmonary inflammation,
and other medically significant airway
responses, as well as some indication of
lung function decrements and
respiratory symptoms at lower levels;
(2) the substantial body of clinical and
epidemiological evidence indicating
that people with asthma are likely to
experience larger and more serious
effects than healthy people; and (3) the
body of epidemiological evidence
indicating associations are observed for
a wide range of serious health effects,
including respiratory emergency
department visits and hospital
admissions, and premature mortality, at
and below 0.080 ppm. The
Administrator also judges that the
estimates of exposures of concern and
risks remaining upon just meeting the
current standard or a standard at the
0.080 ppm level provide additional
support for this view. For the same
reasons, and the reasons discussed
above in section II.C on the adequacy of
the current standard, the Administrator
judges that the standard should be set
below 0.080 ppm, a level at which the
evidence provides a high degree of
certainty about the adverse effects of O3
exposure even in healthy people.
The Administrator next considered
what standard level below 0.080 ppm
would be requisite to protect public
health with an adequate margin of
safety, that is sufficient but not more
than necessary to achieve that result,
recognizing that such a standard would
result in increased public health
protection. The assessment of a standard
level calls for consideration of both the
degree of additional protection that
alternative levels of the standard might
be expected to provide as well as the
certainty that any specific level will in
fact provide such protection. In the
circumstances present in this review,
there is no evidence-based bright line
that indicates a single appropriate level;
instead there is a combination of
scientific evidence and other
information that needs to be considered
holistically in making this public health
policy judgment, and selecting a
standard level from a range of
reasonable values.
The Administrator notes that at
exposure levels below 0.080 ppm there
is only a very limited amount of
evidence from clinical studies
indicating effects in some healthy
individuals at levels as low as 0.060
ppm. The great majority of the evidence
concerning effects below 0.080 ppm is
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from epidemiological studies. The
epidemiological studies do not identify
any bright-line threshold level for
effects. At the same time, the
epidemiological studies are not
themselves direct evidence of a causal
link between exposure to O3 and the
occurrence of the effects. The
Administrator considers these studies in
the context of all the other available
evidence in evaluating the degree of
certainty that O3-related adverse health
effects would occur at various ambient
levels below 0.080 ppm, including the
strong human clinical studies and the
toxicological studies that demonstrate
the biological plausibility and
mechanisms for the effects of O3 on
airway inflammation and increased
airway responsiveness at exposure
levels of 0.080 ppm and above.
Based on consideration of the entire
body of evidence and information
available at this time, as well as the
recommendations of CASAC, the
Administrator proposes that a standard
within the range of 0.070 to 0.075 ppm
would be requisite to protect public
health with an adequate margin of
safety. A standard level within this
range would reduce the risk of a variety
of health effects associated with
exposure to O3, including the
respiratory symptoms and lung function
effects demonstrated in the clinical
studies, and the emergency department
visits, hospital admissions and mortality
effects indicated in the epidemiological
studies. All of these effects are
indicative of a much broader array of
O3-related health endpoints, such as
school absences and increased
medication use, that are plausibly
linked to these observed effects.
The Administrator considered the
degree of improvements in public health
that potentially could be achieved by a
standard of 0.070 to 0.075 ppm, giving
weight to the exposure and risk
assessments as he judged appropriate, as
discussed below. In considering the
results of the exposure assessment, as
discussed above (section II.C.4), the
Administrator has primarily focused on
exposures at and above the 0.070 ppm
benchmark level as an important
surrogate measure for potentially more
serious health effects for at-risk groups,
including people with asthma. In so
doing, the Administrator particularly
notes that although the analysis of
‘‘exposures of concern’’ was conducted
to estimate exposures at and above three
discrete benchmark levels, the concept
is appropriately viewed as a continuum.
As discussed above, the Administrator
strives to balance concern about the
potential for health effects and their
severity with the increasing uncertainty
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associated with our understanding of
the likelihood of such effects at lower
O3 exposure levels. In focusing on this
benchmark, the Administrator notes that
upon just meeting a standard within the
range of 0.070 to 0.075 ppm based on
the 2002 simulation, the number of
school age children likely to experience
exposures at and above this benchmark
level in aggregate (for the 12 cities in the
assessment), is estimated to be
approximately 2 to 4 percent of all and
asthmatic children, and generally less
than 10 percent of children even in
cities that receive the least degree of
protection from such a standard in a
recent year with relatively high O3
levels. A standard within the 0.070 to
0.075 ppm range would thus
substantially reduce exposures of
concern by about 90 to 80 percent,
respectively, from those estimated to
occur upon just meeting the current
standard. While placing less weight on
the results of the risk assessment, in
light of the important uncertainties
inherent in the assessment, the
Administrator notes that the results
indicate that a standard set within this
range would likely reduce risks to atrisk groups from the O3-related health
effects considered in the risk
assessment, and by inference across the
much broader array of O3-related health
effects that can only be considered
qualitatively, relative to the level of
protection afforded by the current
standard. This lends support to the
proposed range.
The Administrator judges that a
standard set within the range of 0.070 to
0.075 ppm would provide a degree of
reduction in risk that is important from
a public health perspective, and that a
standard within this range would be
requisite to protect public health,
including the health of at-risk groups,
with an adequate margin of safety.
EPA’s evaluation of the body of
scientific evidence and quantitative
estimates of exposures and risks
indicates that substantial reductions in
public health risks would occur
throughout this range. Because there is
no bright line clearly directing the
choice of level within this reasonable
range, the choice of what is appropriate,
considering the strengths and
limitations of the evidence, and the
appropriate inferences to be drawn from
the evidence and the exposure and risk
assessments, is a public health policy
judgment. To further inform this
judgment, EPA seeks comment on the
extent to which the epidemiological and
clinical evidence provides guidance as
to the level of a standard that would be
requisite to protect public health with
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an adequate margin of safety, especially
for at-risk groups.
In considering the available
information, the Administrator also
judges that a standard level below 0.070
ppm would not be appropriate. In
reaching this judgment, the
Administrator notes that there is only
quite limited evidence from clinical
studies at exposure levels below 0.080
ppm O3. Moreover, the Administrator
recognizes that in the body of
epidemiological evidence, many studies
report positive and statistically
significant associations, while others
report positive results that are not
statistically significant, and a few do not
report any positive O3-related
associations. In addition, the
Administrator judges that evidence of a
causal relationship between adverse
health outcomes and O3 exposures
becomes increasingly uncertain at lower
levels of exposure.
The Administrator also has
considered the results of the exposure
assessments in reaching his judgment
that a standard level below 0.070 ppm
would not be appropriate. The
Administrator notes that in considering
the results from the exposure
assessment, a standard set at the 0.070
ppm level, with the same form as the
current standard, is estimated to provide
substantial reductions in exposures of
concern (i.e., approximately 90 to 92
percent reductions in the numbers of
school age children and 94 percent
reduction in the total number of
occurrences) for both all and asthmatic
school age children relative to just
meeting the current standard based on
a simulation of a recent year with
relatively high O3 levels (2002). Thus, a
0.070 ppm standard would be expected
to provide protection from the
exposures of concern that the
Administrator has primarily focused on
for over 98 percent of all and asthmatic
school age children even in a year with
relatively high O3 levels, increasing to
over 99.9 percent of children in a year
with relatively low O3 levels (2004).
In considering the results of the
health risk assessment, as discussed in
section II.B above, the Administrator
notes that there are important
uncertainties and assumptions inherent
in the risk assessment and that this
assessment is most appropriately used
to simulate trends and patterns that can
be expected as well as providing
informed but still imprecise estimates of
the potential magnitude of risks. The
Administrator particularly notes that as
lower standard levels are modeled,
including a standard set at a level below
0.070 ppm, the risk assessment
continues to assume a causal link
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between O3 exposures and the
occurrence of the health effects
examined, such that the assessment
continues to indicate reductions in O3related risks upon meeting a lower
standard level. As discussed above,
however, the Administrator recognizes
that evidence of a causal relationship
between adverse health effects and O3
exposures becomes increasingly
uncertain at lower levels of exposure.
Given all of the information available to
him at this time, the Administrator
judges that the increasing uncertainty of
the existence and magnitude of
additional public health protection that
standards below 0.070 ppm might
provide suggests that such lower
standard levels would likely be below
what is necessary to protect public
health with an adequate margin of
safety.
In addition, the Administrator judges
that a standard level higher than 0.075
ppm would also not be appropriate.
This judgment takes into consideration
the information discussed above in
section II.B, and is based on the strong
body of clinical evidence in healthy
people at exposure levels of 0.080 ppm
and above, the substantial body of
clinical and epidemiological evidence
indicating that people with asthma are
likely to experience larger and more
serious effects than healthy people, the
body of epidemiological evidence
indicating that associations are observed
for a wide range of more serious health
effects at levels below 0.080 ppm, and
the estimates of exposure and risk
remaining upon just meeting a standard
set at 0.080 ppm. The much greater
certainty of the existence and magnitude
of additional public health protection
that such levels would forego provides
the basis for judging that levels above
0.075 ppm would be higher than what
is requisite to protect public health,
including the health of at-risk groups,
with an adequate margin of safety.
For the reasons discussed above, the
Administrator proposes to revise the
level of the primary O3 standard to
within the range of 0.070 to 0.075 ppm.
Having reached this decision based on
the approach to interpreting the
evidence described above, the
Administrator recognizes that other
approaches to selecting a standard level
have been presented to the Agency. As
described above, the CASAC has stated
in two letters to the Administrator
(Henderson, 2006c; Henderson, 2007) its
unanimous recommendation that the
current primary O3 NAAQS be revised
to within the range from 0.060 to 0.070
ppm. The CASAC Panel noted that
while data exist that adverse health
effects may occur at levels lower than
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0.060 ppm, these data are less certain
and that achievable gains in protecting
human health can be accomplished
through lowering the O3 NAAQS to a
level between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm. In
addition to the views of CASAC
described above, the Agency received
the public comments described below.
One group of commenters submitted
comments that supported revising the
level of the primary O3 standard from
0.070 ppm down to or even below 0.060
ppm, consistent with or below the range
recommended by CASAC. In
considering the available evidence as a
basis for their views, these commenters
generally noted that the controlled
human exposure studies, showing
statistically significant declines in lung
function, and increases in respiratory
symptoms, airway inflammation and
airway responsiveness at a 0.080 ppm
exposure level, were conducted with
healthy adults, not members of at-risk
groups including people with asthma
and active children generally. Further,
recognizing the substantial variability in
response between subjects, some of
these commenters felt that the number
of subjects included in these studies
was too small to ascertain the full range
of responses, especially for at-risk
groups. Such considerations in part
were the basis for these commenters’
view that an O3 standard set at 0.080
ppm is not protective of public health
and has no margin of safety for at-risk
groups. In addition, some of these
commenters also noted that the World
Health Organization’s guidelines for O3
air quality are in the range of 0.061 to
0.051 ppm.
In considering the results of the
human exposure and health risk
assessment, this group of commenters
generally expressed the view that these
assessments substantially underestimate
the public health impacts of exposure to
O3. For example, several commenters
noted that the assessments are done for
a limited number of cities, they do not
address risks to important at-risk
subpopulations (e.g., outdoor workers,
active people who spend their summers
outdoors, children up to 5 years of age),
and they do not include many health
effects that are important from a public
health perspective (e.g., school
absences, restricted activity days).
Further, some of these commenters
expressed the view that the primary O3
standard should be set to protect the
most exposed and most vulnerable
groups, and the fact that some children
are frequently indoors, and thus at
lower risk, should not weigh against
setting a standard to protect those
children who are active outdoors. To the
extent the exposure and risk estimates
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are considered, some of these
commenters felt that primary
consideration should be given to the
estimates based on 2002 air quality, for
which most areas had relatively higher
O3 levels than in 2004, so as to ensure
public health protection even in years
with relatively worse O3 air quality
levels. Some commenters also felt that
the exposure analysis should focus on a
benchmark concentration for exposures
of concern at the 0.060 ppm level, the
lower end of the range of alternative
standards advocated by the CASAC
Panel.
In sharp contrast to the views
discussed above, other public
commenters supported retaining the
current standard. In considering the
available evidence as a basis for their
views, these commenters challenged a
number of aspects of the interpretation
of the evidence presented in the Criteria
Document. For example, some of these
commenters asserted that EPA generally
overestimates the magnitude and
consistency of the results of short-term
exposure epidemiological studies (e.g.,
for respiratory symptoms, school
absences, hospital admissions,
mortality), mistakenly links statistical
significance and consistency with
strength of associations, and
underestimates the uncertainties in
interpreting the results of such studies.
Further, these commenters generally
express the view that there is significant
uncertainty related to the reliability of
estimates from time-series studies, in
that ambient monitors do not provide
reliable estimates of personal exposures,
such that the small reported morbidity
and mortality risks are unlikely to be
attributable to people’s exposures to O3.
Rather, these commenters variously
attribute the reported risks to the
inability of time series studies to
account for key model specification
factors such as smoothing for timevarying parameters, meteorological
factors, and removal of O3 by building
ventilation systems, and confounding by
co-pollutants. In particular, these
commenters generally asserted that
reported associations between shortterm O3 exposure and mortality are not
causal, in that the reported relative risks
are too small to provide a basis for
inferring causality and the associations
are most likely due to confounding,
inappropriately specified statistical
models, or publication bias.
In considering the results of the
human exposure and health risk
assessment, this group of commenters
generally expressed the view that these
assessments are based on a number of
studies that should not be used in
quantitative risk assessment. For
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example, some commenters asserted
that the results of time-series studies
should not be used at all in quantitative
risk assessments, that risk estimates
from single city time-series studies
should not be used since they are highly
heterogeneous and influenced by
publication bias, and that risk estimates
from multi-city studies should not be
used in estimating risk for individual
cities. This group of commenters also
generally expressed the view that the
assessments generally overestimate the
public health impacts of exposure to O3.
Noting that the risk assessment used a
nonlinear exposure-response function to
estimate decreased lung function risks,
some commenters expressed the view
that a nonlinear approach should also
be used to assess other acute morbidity
effects and mortality. This view was in
part based on judgments that it is not
possible to determine if thresholds exist
using time-series analyses and that the
lack of association of O3 to mortality in
the winter season is highly supportive
of the likelihood of the existence of an
effect threshold. With regard to the risk
assessment based on controlled human
exposure studies of lung function
decrements, some commenters
expressed the view that the assessment
should not rely on what they
characterized as ‘‘outlier’’ information
to define exposure-response
relationships, with reference to the data
in the Adams (2006) study at the 0.060
and 0.040 ppm exposure levels, but
rather should focus on group central
tendency response levels. Further, some
commenters expressed the view that the
air quality rollback algorithm used
introduces significant uncertainty,
especially when applied to areas
requiring very large reductions in air
quality to meet the alternative standards
examined, and may result in
overestimates in benefits from emission
reductions. Some commenters noted
that potential beneficial effects of O3 in
shielding from UV–B radiation are not
quantified in the assessment, and that
the assessment should discuss the
evidence for both adverse and beneficial
effects with the same objectivity.
Finally, some of these commenters
asserted that since estimates of
exposures of concern (which they
defined as the benchmark concentration
of 0.080 ppm) and lung function
decrements are substantially below the
estimates available when the current O3
standard was set in 1997, retaining the
current standard is the most appropriate
policy alternative.
Some commenters also have raised
concerns about potential uncertainties
with regard to estimating policy-
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relevant background O3 levels
including: (1) Stratospheric O3
contributions to the mid- and upper
troposphere, which are relatively longlived (1 to 2 months), and are
transported downward to the surface
over time; (2) potential trends in
stratospheric O3 levels due to changes in
stratospheric circulation or to reduction
of O3 depleting chemicals; (3) O3 levels
due to lightning strikes in estimating
policy-relevant background
concentrations; and (4) potential
uncertainty with regard to policyrelevant background O3 levels having to
do with increases in O3 precursors
elsewhere in the world. EPA asks for
comments on these issues and on how
they may relate to the estimation and
consideration of policy-relevant
background levels in setting the O3
standards.
Several Governors, State Legislators,
and other local officials have expressed
concerns related to a more stringent
standard. These officials recognize that
State and local governments have
important roles in developing and
implementing policy that improve air
quality while at the same time achieving
economic and quality of life objectives.
In addition, these officials note that
States are just beginning to implement
current air quality standards and raise
concern with moving forward on
revised standards without first realizing
the results from the last revision.
As a related concern, a number of
areas—including some of the cities
involved in the risk assessment—will
have difficulty in complying with the
current 8-hour standard within the next
decade. As a result, the full public
health gains in these areas from a more
stringent 8-hour standard are unlikely to
be realized for a number of years. In
light of the fact that these public health
gains may not fully materialize within
the attainment date structure set forth in
the Clean Air Act, some commenters
question whether the Agency can or
should consider these projected gains as
a health based criterion for its
decisionmaking. EPA requests comment
on this view.
The Administrator is mindful that the
country has important goals related to
the increased production and use of
renewable energy, and that these new
energy sources can have important
public health, environmental and other
benefits, such as national security
benefits. In some contexts and
situations, however, the use of
renewable fuels may impact compliance
with a lowered ozone NAAQS standard.
For example, the Agency recently
promulgated final regulations pursuant
to section 211(o) of the Clean Air Act,
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which was enacted as part of the Energy
Policy Act of 2005. This provision
requires the use of 7.5 billion gallons of
renewable fuel by 2012, a level which
will be greatly exceeded in practice. In
the Regulatory Impact Analysis which
accompanied the renewable fuel
regulations, the Agency recognized the
impact of this program on emissions
related to ozone, toxics and greenhouse
gases and otherwise reviewed the
impacts on energy security. The
Administrator requests comment on
such factors and any relationship to this
rulemaking, including the extent of
EPA’s discretion under the Clean Air
Act to take such factors into account
(see section I.A).
In general, these commenters’
concerns are consistent with the view
that adopting a more stringent 8-hour
standard now, without a better
understanding of the health effects
associated with O3 exposure at lower
levels, would have an uncertain public
health benefit. The Administrator
recognizes that commenters have raised
numerous concerns regarding various
types of uncertainties in the available
information, including for example
uncertainties in (1) The assessment of
exposures, (2) the estimation of
concentration-response associations in
the epidemiological studies, (3) the
potential role of co-pollutants in
interpreting the reported associations in
epidemiological studies, and (4) the
estimation of background
concentrations. The Administrator has
heard these concerns from Governors
and other commenters and invites
comment on whether it would be
appropriate to retain the existing
standard and delay considering
modification of the 8-hour standard
until the next NAAQS review, when a
more complete body of information is
expected to be available.
Consistent with the goal of soliciting
comment on a wide array of views, the
Administrator also solicits comments on
these alternative approaches and views,
and on related standard levels,
including levels down to 0.060 ppm and
up to retaining the level of the current
8-hour standard (i.e., effectively 0.084
ppm with the current rounding
convention). The Administrator
recognizes that these sharply divergent
views on the appropriate level of the
standard are based on very different
interpretations of the science itself,
including its relative strengths and
limitations, very different judgments as
to how such scientific evidence should
be used in making policy decisions on
proposed standards, and very different
public health policy judgments.
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E. Proposed Decision on the Primary
Standard
For the reasons discussed above, and
taking into account information and
assessments presented in the Criteria
Document and Staff Paper, the advice
and recommendations of CASAC, and
the public comments to date, the
Administrator proposes to revise the
existing 8-hour primary O3 standard.
Specifically, the Administrator proposes
to revise: (1) The level of the primary O3
standard to within a range from 0.070 to
0.075 ppm and (2) the degree of
precision to which the level of the
standard is specified to the thousandth
ppm. The proposed 8-hour primary
standard, with a level in the range of
0.070 to 0.075 ppm, would be met at an
ambient air monitoring site when the 3year average of the annual forth-highest
daily maximum 8-hour average O3
concentration is less than or equal to the
level of the standard that is
promulgated. Data handling
conventions are specified in the
proposed creation of Appendix P, as
discussed in section V below.
However, in recognition of alternative
views of the science, the exposure and
risk assessments and the uncertainties
inherent in these assessments, and the
appropriate policy responses based on
the currently available information, the
Administrator also solicits comments on
whether to proceed instead with: (1)
Alternative levels of the 8-hour primary
O3 standard, within ranges of below
0.070 ppm down to 0.060 ppm and
above 0.075 ppm up to and including
retaining the current standard; (2)
alternative forms of the standard,
including the 3-year average of the
annual third- and fifth-highest daily
maximum 8-hour average O3
concentrations; and (3) retaining the
degree of precision of the current
standard (to the nearest hundredth
ppm). Based on the comments received
and the accompanying rationales, the
Administrator may adopt other
standards within the range of the
alternative levels and forms identified
above in lieu of the standards he is
proposing today.
III. Communication of Public Health
Information
Information on the public health
implications of ambient concentrations
of criteria pollutants is currently made
available primarily through EPA’s Air
Quality Index (AQI) program. The
current Air Quality Index has been in
use since its inception in 1999 (64 FR
42530). It provides accurate, timely, and
easily understandable information about
daily levels of pollution (40 CFR 58.50).
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The AQI establishes a nationally
uniform system of indexing pollution
levels for O3, carbon monoxide, nitrogen
dioxide, particulate matter and sulfur
dioxide. The AQI converts pollutant
concentrations in a community’s air to
a number on a scale from 0 to 500.
Reported AQI values enable the public
to know whether air pollution levels in
a particular location are characterized as
good (0–50), moderate (51–100),
unhealthy for sensitive groups (101–
150), unhealthy (151–200), very
unhealthy (201–300), or hazardous
(300–500). The AQI index value of 100
typically corresponds to the level of the
short-term NAAQS for each pollutant.
For the current O3 NAAQS, an 8-hour
average concentration of 0.084 ppm
corresponds to an AQI value of 100. An
AQI value greater than 100 means that
a pollutant is in one of the unhealthy
categories (i.e., unhealthy for sensitive
groups, unhealthy, very unhealthy, or
hazardous) on a given day; an AQI value
at or below 100 means that a pollutant
concentration is in one of the
satisfactory categories (i.e., moderate or
good). Decisions about the pollutant
concentrations at which to set the
various AQI breakpoints, that delineate
the various AQI categories, draw
directly from the underlying health
information that supports the NAAQS
review.
The Agency recognizes the
importance of revising the AQI in a
timely manner to be consistent with any
revisions to the NAAQS. Therefore EPA
proposes to finalize conforming changes
to the AQI, in connection with the
Agency’s final decision on the O3
NAAQS if revisions to the primary
standard are promulgated. These
conforming changes would include
setting the 100 level of the AQI at the
same level as the revised primary O3
NAAQS, and also making proportional
adjustments to AQI breakpoints at the
lower end of the range (i.e., AQI values
of 50, 150 and 200). EPA does not
propose to change breakpoints at the
higher end of the range (from 300 to
500), which would apply to state
contingency plans or the Significant
Harm Level (40 CFR 51.16), because the
information from this review does not
inform decisions about breakpoints at
those higher levels.
IV. Rationale for Proposed Decision on
the Secondary Standard
This section presents the rationale for
the Administrator’s proposed decision
to revise the existing 0.08 ppm, 8-hour
O3 secondary NAAQS. The
Administrator proposes to revise the
current secondary standard by replacing
it with one of two standard options. One
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as the sum of sigmoidally weighted
hourly O3 concentrations over a
specified period, where the daily
sigmoidal weighting function is defined
as:
w Ci Ci , where Ci = hourly O3 at hour i, and w Ci =
The other option is to revise the current
secondary standard by making it
identical to the proposed 8-hour
primary standard, within the proposed
range of 0.070 to 0.075 ppm. For this
option, EPA also solicits comment on a
wider range of 8-hour secondary
standard levels, including down to
0.060 ppm and up to and including
retaining the current 8-hour secondary
standard of 0.08 ppm. The
Administrator has also considered and
solicits comment on an alternative
approach to setting a cumulative,
seasonal standard(s).
As discussed more fully below, the
rationale for these proposed options is
based on a thorough review of the latest
scientific information on vegetation
effects associated with exposure to
ambient levels of O3, as assessed in the
Criteria Document. This rationale also
takes into account: (1) Staff assessments
of the most policy-relevant information
in the Criteria Document regarding the
evidence of adverse effects of O3 to
vegetation and ecosystems, information
on biologically-relevant exposure
metrics, and staff analyses of air quality,
vegetation exposure and risks, presented
in the Staff Paper and described in
greater detail in the associated
Technical Report on Ozone Exposure,
Risk, and Impact Assessments for
Vegetation (Abt, 2007), upon which staff
recommendations for revisions to the
secondary O3 standard are based; (2)
CASAC advice and recommendations as
reflected in discussion of drafts of the
Criteria Document and Staff Paper at
public meetings, in separate written
comments, and in CASAC’s letters to
the Administrator (Henderson, 2006a, b,
c; 2007); (3) public comments received
during development of these documents
either in conjunction with CASAC
meetings or separately; and (4)
consideration of the degree of protection
to vegetation potentially afforded by the
proposed 8-hour primary standard.
In developing this rationale, EPA has
again focused on direct O3 effects on
vegetation, specifically drawing upon an
integrative synthesis of the entire body
of evidence, published through early
2006, on the broad array of vegetation
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the 12-hour daylight period (8 a.m. to 8
p.m.) during the consecutive 3-month
period within the O3 monitoring season
with the maximum index value. This
concentration-weighted form is
commonly called W126, and is defined
effects associated with exposure to
ambient levels of O3 (EPA, 2006a,
chapter 9). In addition, because O3 can
also indirectly affect other ecosystem
components such as soils, water, and
wildlife, and their associated ecosystem
goods and services, through its effects
on vegetation, a qualitative discussion
of these other indirect impacts is also
included, though these effects are not
quantifiable at this time. As was
concluded in the 1997 review, and
based on the body of scientific literature
assessed in the current Criteria
Document, the Administrator believes
that it is reasonable to conclude that a
secondary standard protecting the
public welfare from known or
anticipated adverse effects to trees,
native vegetation and crops would also
afford increased protection from adverse
effects to other environmental
components relevant to the public
welfare, including ecosystem services
and function. The peer-reviewed
literature includes studies conducted in
the U.S., Canada, Europe, and many
other countries around the world. In its
assessment of the evidence judged to be
most relevant to making decisions on
the level of the O3 secondary standard,
however, EPA has placed greater weight
on U.S. studies, due to the often
species-, site- and climate-specific
nature of O3-related vegetation response.
As with virtually any policy-relevant
vegetation effects research, there is
uncertainty in the characterization of
vegetation effects attributable to
exposure to ambient O3. As discussed
below, however, research conducted
since the last review provides important
information coming from field-based
exposure studies, including free air,
gradient and biomonitoring surveys, in
addition to the more traditional
controlled open top chamber (OTC)
studies. Moreover, the newly available
studies evaluated in the Criteria
Document have undergone intensive
scrutiny through multiple layers of peer
review and many opportunities for
public review and comment. While
important uncertainties remain, the
review of the vegetation effects
information has been extensive and
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1
.
1 + 4403e −126 Ci
deliberate. In the judgment of the
Administrator, the intensive evaluation
of the scientific evidence that has
occurred in this review has provided an
adequate basis for regulatory decisionmaking at this time. This review also
provides important input to EPA’s
research plan for improving our future
understanding of the effects of ambient
O3 at lower levels.
A. Vegetation Effects Information
This section outlines key information
contained in the Criteria Document
(chapter 9) and in the Staff Paper
(chapter 7) on known or potential effects
on public welfare which may be
expected from the presence of O3 in
ambient air. The information
highlighted here summarizes: (1) New
information available on potential
mechanisms for vegetation effects
associated with exposure to O3; (2) the
nature of effects on vegetation that have
been associated with exposure to O3 and
consequent potential impacts on
ecosystems; and (3) considerations in
characterizing what constitutes an
adverse welfare impact of O3.
Exposures to O3 have been associated
quantitatively and qualitatively with a
wide range of vegetation effects. The
decision in the last review to set a more
protective secondary standard primarily
reflected consideration of the
quantitative information on vegetation
effects available at that time,
particularly growth impairment (e.g.,
biomass loss) in sensitive forest tree
species during the seedling growth stage
and yield loss in important commercial
crops. This information, derived mainly
using the OTC exposure method, found
cumulative, seasonal O3 exposures were
most strongly associated with observed
vegetation response. The Criteria
Document prepared for this review
discusses a number of additional studies
that support and strengthen key
conclusions regarding O3 effects on
vegetation and ecosystems found in the
previous Criteria Document (EPA,
1996a, 2006a), including further
clarification of the underlying
mechanistic and physiological processes
at the subcellular, cellular, and whole
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EP11JY07.001
option is to adopt a new cumulative,
seasonal concentration-weighted form,
set at an annual level in the range of 7
to 21 ppm-hours. This standard would
be expressed as a sum of weighted
hourly concentrations, cumulated over
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system levels within the plant. More
importantly, however, in the context of
this review, new quantitative
information is now available across a
broader array of vegetation effects (e.g.,
growth impairment during seedlings,
saplings and mature tree growth stages,
visible foliar injury, and yield loss in
annual crops) and across a more diverse
set of exposure methods, including
chamber, free air, gradient, model, and
field-based observation. These nonchambered, field-based study results
begin to address one of the key data
gaps cited by the Administrator in the
last review.
The following discussion of the
policy-relevant science regarding
vegetation effects associated with
cumulative, seasonal exposures to
ambient levels of O3 integrates
information from the Criteria Document
(chapter 9) and the Staff Paper (chapter
7).
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1. Mechanisms Governing Plant
Response to Ozone
The interpretation of predictions of
risk associated with vegetation response
at ambient O3 exposure levels can be
informed by scientific understanding
regarding O3 impacts at the genetic,
physiological, and mechanistic levels.
In most cases, the mechanisms of
response are similar regardless of the
degree of sensitivity of the species. The
evidence assessed in the 2006 Criteria
Document (EPA, 2006a) regarding the
O3-induced changes in physiology
continues to support the information
discussed in the last review (EPA,
1996a, 2006a). In addition, during the
last decade understanding of the
cellular processes within plants has
been further clarified and enhanced.
Therefore, this section reviews the key
scientific conclusions identified in 1996
Criteria Document (EPA, 1996a), and
incorporates new information from the
current Criteria Document (EPA, 2006a).
This section describes: (1) Plant uptake
of O3, (2) O3-induced cellular to
systemic response, (3) plant
compensation and detoxification
mechanisms, (4) O3-induced changes to
plant metabolism, and (5) plant
response to chronic O3 exposures.
a. Plant Uptake of Ozone
To cause injury, O3 must first enter
the plant through openings in the leaves
called stomata. Leaves exist in a three
dimensional environment called the
plant canopy, where each leaf has a
unique orientation and receives a
different exposure to ambient air,
microclimatological conditions, and
sunlight. In addition, a plant may be
located within a stand of other plants
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which further modifies ambient air
exchange with individual leaves. Not all
O3 entering a plant canopy is absorbed
into the leaf stomata, but may be
adsorbed to other surfaces e.g., leaf
cuticles, stems, and soil (termed nonstomatal deposition) or scavenged by
reactions with intra-canopy biogenic
VOCs and naturally occurring NOX
emissions from soils. Because O3 does
not penetrate the leaf’s cuticle, it must
reach the stomatal openings in the leaf
for absorption to occur. The movement
of O3 and other gases such as CO2 into
and out of leaves is controlled by
stomatal guard cells that regulate the
size of the stomatal apertures. These
guard cells respond to a variety of
internal species-specific factors as well
as external site specific environmental
factors such as light, temperature,
humidity, CO2 concentration, soil
fertility and water status, and in some
cases the presence of air pollutants,
including O3. These modifying factors
produce stomatal conductance that vary
between leaves of the same plant,
individuals and genotypes within a
species and diurnally and seasonally.
b. Cellular to Systemic Response
Once inside the leaf, O3 can react with
a variety of biochemical compounds
that are exposed to the air spaces within
the leaf or it can be dissolved into the
water lining the cell wall of the air
spaces. Having entered the aqueous
phase, O3 can be rapidly altered to form
oxidative products that can diffuse more
readily into and through the cell and
react with many biochemical
compounds. An early step in a series of
O3-induced events that leads to leaf
injury seems to involve alteration in cell
membrane function, including
membrane transport properties (EPA,
2006a). One such signaling molecule is
hydrogen peroxide (H2O2). The presence
of higher-than-normal levels of H2O2
within the leaf is a potential trigger for
a set of metabolic reactions that include
those typical of the well documented
‘‘wounding’’ response or pathogen
defense pathway generated by cutting of
the leaf or by pathogen/insect attack.
Ethylene is another compound
produced when plants are subjected to
biotic or abiotic stressors. Increased
ethylene production by plants exposed
to O3 stress was identified as a
consistent marker for O3 exposure in
studies conducted decades ago (Tingey
et al., 1976).
c. Compensation and Detoxification
Ozone injury will not occur if (1) the
rate and amount of O3 uptake is small
enough for the plant to detoxify or
metabolize O3 or its metabolites or (2)
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the plant is able to repair or compensate
for the O3 impacts (Tingey and Taylor,
1982; U.S. EPA, 1996a). A few studies
have documented direct stomatal
closure or restriction in the presence of
O3 in some species. This response may
be initiated ranging from within
minutes to hours or days of exposure
(Moldau et al., 1990; Dann and Pell,
1989; Weber et al., 1993). However,
exclusion of O3 simultaneously restricts
the uptake of CO2, which also limits
photosynthesis and growth. In addition,
antioxidants present in plants can
effectively protect tissue against damage
from low levels of oxidants by
dissipating excess oxidizing power.
Since 1996, the role of detoxification in
providing a level of resistance to O3 has
been further investigated. A number of
antioxidants have been found in plants.
However, the pattern of changes in the
amounts of these antioxidants varies
greatly among different species and
conditions. Most recent reports indicate
that ascorbate within the cell wall
provides the first significant
opportunity for detoxification to occur.
In spite of the new research, however,
it is still not clear as to what extent
detoxification protects against O3 injury.
Specifically, data are needed on
potential rates of antioxidant
production, subcellular location(s) of
antioxidants, and whether generation of
these antioxidants in response to O3induced stress potentially diverts
resources and energy away from other
vital uses. Thus, the Criteria Document
concludes that scientific understanding
of the detoxification mechanisms is not
yet complete and requires further
investigation (EPA, 2006a).
Once O3 injury has occurred in leaf
tissue, some plants are able to repair or
compensate for the impacts. In general,
plants have a variety of compensatory
mechanisms for low levels of stress
including reallocation of resources,
changes in root/shoot ratio, production
of new tissue, and/or biochemical shifts,
such as increased photosynthetic
capacity in new foliage and changes in
respiration rates, indicating possible
repair or replacement of damaged
membranes or enzymes. Since these
mechanisms are genetically determined,
not all plants have the same
complement or degree of tolerance, nor
are all stages of a plant’s development
equally sensitive to O3. At higher levels
or over longer periods of O3 stress, some
of these compensatory mechanisms,
such as a reallocation of resources away
from storage in the roots in favor of
leaves or shoots, could occur at a cost
to the overall health of the plant.
However, it is not yet clear to what
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degree or how the use of plant resources
for repair or compensatory processes
affects the overall carbohydrate budget
or subsequent plant response to O3 or
other stresses (EPA, 1996a, EPA, 2006a).
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d. Changes to Plant Metabolism
Ozone inhibits photosynthesis, the
process by which plants produce energy
rich compounds (e.g., carbohydrates) in
the leaves. This impairment can result
from direct impact to chloroplast
function and/or O3-induced stomatal
closure resulting in reduced uptake of
CO2. A large body of literature
published since 1996 has further
elucidated the mechanism of the effect
of O3 within the chloroplast. Pell et al.
(1997) showed that O3 exposure results
in a loss of the central carboxylating
enzyme that plays an important role in
the production of carbohydrates. Due to
its central importance, any decrease in
this enzyme may have severe
consequences for the plant’s
productivity. Several recent studies
have found that O3 has a greater effect
as leaves age, with the greatest impact
of O3 occurring on the oldest leaves
(Fiscus et al., 1997; Reid and Fiscus,
1998; Noormets et al., 2001; Morgan et
al., 2004). The loss of this key enzyme
as a function of increasing O3 exposure
is also linked to an early senescence or
a speeding up of normal development
leading to senescence. If total plant
photosynthesis is sufficiently reduced,
the plant will respond by reallocating
the remaining carbohydrate at the level
of the whole organism (EPA, 1996a,
2006a). This reallocation of
carbohydrate away from the roots into
above ground vegetative components
can have serious implications for
perennial species.
e. Plant Response to Chronic Ozone
Exposures
Though many changes that occur with
O3 exposure can be observed within
hours, or perhaps days, of the exposure,
including those connected with
wounding, other effects take longer to
occur and tend to become most obvious
after chronic exposures to low O3
concentrations. These chronic
exposures have been linked to
senescence or some other physiological
response very closely linked to
senescence. In perennial plant species,
a reduction in carbohydrate storage in
one year may result in the limitation of
growth the following year (Andersen et
al., 1997). Such ‘‘carry-over’’ effects
have been documented in the growth of
tree seedlings (Hogsett et al., 1989;
Sasek et al., 1991; Temple et al., 1993;
EPA, 1996a) and in roots (Andersen et
al., 1991; EPA, 1996a). Though it is not
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fully understood how chronic O3 affects
long-term growth and resistance to other
biotic and abiotic insults in long-lived
trees, accumulation of these carry-over
effects over time could affect survival
and reproduction.
2. Nature of Effects
Ozone injury at the cellular level,
when it has accumulated sufficiently,
will be propagated to the level of the
whole leaf or plant. These larger scale
effects can include: Reduced
carbohydrate production and/or
reallocation; reduced growth and/or
reproduction; visible foliar injury and/
or premature senescence; and reduced
plant vigor. Much of what is now
known about these O3-related effects, as
summarized below, is based on research
that was available in the last review.
Recent studies continue to support and
expand this knowledge (EPA, 2006a).
a. Carbohydrate Production and
Allocation
When total plant photosynthesis is
sufficiently reduced, the plant will
respond by reallocating the remaining
carbohydrate at the level of the whole
organism. Many studies have
demonstrated that root growth is more
sensitive to O3 exposure than stem or
leaf growth (EPA, 2006a). When fewer
carbohydrates are present in the roots,
less energy will be available for rootrelated functions such as acquisition of
water and nutrients. In addition, by
inhibiting photosynthesis and the
amount of carbohydrates available for
transfer to the roots O3 can disrupt the
association between soil fungi and host
plants. Fungi in the soil form a
symbiotic relationship with many
terrestrial plants. For host plants, these
fungi improve the uptake of nutrients,
protect the roots against pathogens,
produce plant growth hormones, and
may transport carbohydrates from one
plant to another (EPA, 1996a). These
below-ground effects have recently been
documented in the field (Grulke et al.,
1998; Grulke and Balduman, 1999). Data
from a long-studied pollution gradient
in the San Bernardino Mountains of
southern California suggest that O3
substantially reduces root growth in
natural stands of Ponderosa pine (Pinus
ponderosa). Root growth in mature trees
was decreased at least 87 percent in a
high-pollution site as compared to a
low-pollution site (Grulke et al., 1998),
and a similar pattern was found in a
separate study with whole-tree harvest
along this gradient (Grulke and
Balduman, 1999). Though effects on
other ecosystem components were not
examined, a reduction of root growth of
this magnitude could have significant
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implications for the below-ground
communities at those sites. Because
effects on leaf and needle carbohydrate
content under O3 stress can range from
a reduction (Barnes et al., 1990; Miller
et al., 1989), to no effect (Alscher et al.,
1989), to an increase (Luethy-Krause
and Landolt, 1990), studies that
examine only above-ground vegetative
components may miss important O3induced changes below ground. These
below-ground changes could signal a
shift in nutrient cycling with
significance at the ecosystem level
(Young and Sanzone, 2002).
b. Growth Effects on Trees
Studies comparing the O3-related
growth response of different vegetation
types (coniferous and deciduous) and
growth stages (e.g., seedling and mature)
have established that on average,
individual coniferous trees are less
sensitive than deciduous trees, and
deciduous trees are generally less
sensitive to O3 than most annual plants,
with the exception of a few fast growing
deciduous tree species (e.g., quaking
aspen, black cherry, and cottonwood),
which are highly sensitive and, in some
cases, as much or more sensitive to O3
than sensitive annual plants. In
addition, studies have shown that the
relationship between O3 sensitivity in
seedling and mature growth stages of
trees can vary widely, with seedling
growth being more sensitive to O3
exposures in some species, while in
others, the mature growth stage is the
more O3 sensitive. In general, mature
deciduous trees are likely to be more
sensitive to O3 than deciduous
seedlings, and mature evergreen trees
are likely to be less sensitive to O3 than
their seedling counterparts. Based on
these results, stomatal conductance, O3
uptake, and O3 effects cannot be
assumed to be equivalent in seedlings
and mature trees.
In the last review (EPA, 1996b),
analyses of the effects of O3 on trees
were limited to 11 tree species for
which concentration-response (C–R)
functions for the seedling growth stage
had been developed from OTC studies
conducted by the National Health and
Environmental Effects Research Lab,
Western Ecology Division (NHEERL–
WED). A number of replicate studies
were conducted on these species,
leading to a total of 49 experimental
cases. The Staff Paper presented a graph
of the composite regression equation
that combines the results of the C–R
functions developed for each of the 49
cases. The NHEERL–WED study
predicted relative yield loss at various
exposure levels in terms of a 12-hour
W126. For example, 50 percent of the
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tree seedling cases would be protected
from greater than 10 percent biomass
loss at a 3-month, 12-hour W126 of
approximately 24 ppm-hrs, while 75
percent of cases would be protected
from 10 percent biomass loss at a 3month, 12-hour W126 level of
approximately 16 ppm-hrs.
Since the 1996 review, only a few
studies have developed C–R functions
for additional tree seedling species
(EPA, 2006a). One such study is of
particular importance in that it
documented growth effects from O3
exposure in the field without the use of
chambers or other fumigation methods
that were as great as those seen in OTC
studies (Gregg et al., 2003). This study
placed Eastern cottonwood (Populus
deltoides) saplings at sites along a
continuum of ambient O3 exposures that
gradually increased from urban to rural
areas in the New York City area (Gregg
et al., 2003). Eastern cottonwood was
selected because it is fast growing, O3
sensitive and important ecologically,
along stream banks, and commercially
for pulpwood, furniture manufacturing,
and as a possible new source for energy
biomass (Burns and Hankola, 1990).
Gregg et al. (2003) found that the
cottonwood saplings grown in New
York City grew faster than saplings
grown in downwind rural areas.
Because these saplings were grown in
pots with carefully controlled soil
nutrient and moisture levels, the
authors were able to control for most of
the differences between sites. After
carefully considering these and other
factors, the authors concluded the
primary explanation for the difference
in growth was the gradient of
cumulative O3 exposures that increased
as one moved downwind from urban to
less urban and more rural sites. It was
determined that the lower O3 exposure
within the city center was due to NOX
titration reactions which removed O3
from the ambient air. The authors were
able to reproduce the growth responses
observed in the field in a companion
OTC experiment, confirming O3 as the
stressor inducing the growth loss
response (Gregg et al., 2003).
Another recent set of studies
employed a modified Free Air CO2
Enrichment (FACE) methodology to
expose vegetation to elevated O3
without the use of chambers. This
exposure method was originally
developed to expose vegetation to
elevated levels of CO2, but has been
modified to include O3 exposure in
Illinois (SoyFACE) and Wisconsin
(AspenFACE) for soybean and
deciduous trees, respectively (Dickson
et al., 2000; Morgan et al., 2004). The
FACE method releases gas (e.g., CO2, O3)
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from a series of orifices placed along the
length of the vertical pipes surrounding
a circular field plot and uses the
prevailing wind to distribute it. This
exposure method has many
characteristics that differ from those
associated with the OTC.
Most significantly, this exposure
method more closely replicates
conditions in the field than did OTCs.
This is because, except for O3 levels
which are varied across co-located plots,
plants are exposed to the same ambient
growing conditions that occur naturally
in the field (e.g., location-specific
pollutant mixtures; climate conditions
such as light, temperature and
precipitation; insect pests, pathogens).
By using one of several co-located plots
as a control (e.g., receives no additional
O3), and by exposing the other rings to
differing levels of elevated O3, the
growth response signal that is due solely
to the change in O3 exposure can be
clearly determined. Furthermore, the
FACE system can expand vertically with
the growth of trees, allowing for
exposure experiments to span numerous
years, an especially useful capability in
forest research.
On the other hand, the FACE
methodology also has the undesirable
characteristic of potentially creating
hotspots near O3 gas release orifices or
gradients of exposure in the outer ring
of trees within the plots, such that
averaging results across the entire ring
potentially overestimates the response.
In recognition of this possibility,
researchers at the AspenFACE
experimental site only measured trees in
the center core of each ring, (e.g., at least
5–6 meters away from the emission sites
of O3) (Dickson et al., 2000; Karnosky et
al. 2005). By taking this precaution, it is
unlikely that their measurements were
influenced by any potential hotspots or
gradients of exposure within the FACE
rings. Taking all of the above into
account, results from the Wisconsin
FACE site on quaking aspen appear to
demonstrate that the detrimental effects
of O3 exposure seen on tree growth and
symptom expression in OTCs can be
observed in the field using this exposure
method (Karnosky et al., 1999; 2005).
The Staff Paper thus concluded that
the combined evidence from the
AspenFACE 56 and Gregg et al. (2003)
field studies provide compelling and
56 Only a few northern forest types in the U.S.
have been well studied with respect to O3
exposures using the FACE method, though these
systems are being used to expose numerous other
ecosystem types to elevated levels of CO2.
Additional FACE studies with O3 on other U.S.
forest types would provide a better understanding
of whether these results can be extrapolated to other
forest types and mature forest stands.
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important support for the
appropriateness of continued use of the
C–R functions derived using OTC from
the NHEERL–WED studies to estimate
risk to these tree seedlings under
ambient field exposure conditions.
These studies make a significant
contribution to the coherence in the
weight of evidence available in this
review and provide additional evidence
that O3-induced effects observed in
chambers also occur in the field.
Trees and other perennials, in
addition to cumulating the effects of O3
exposures over the annual growing
season, can also cumulate effects across
multiple years. It has been reported that
effects can ‘‘carry over’’ from one year
to another (EPA, 2006a). Growth
affected by a reduction in carbohydrate
storage in one year may result in the
limitation of growth in the following
year (Andersen, et al., 1997). Carry-over
effects have been documented in the
growth of some tree seedlings (Hogsett
et al. 1989; Simini et al., 1992; Temple
et al., 1993) and in roots (Andersen et
al., 1991; EPA, 1996a). On the basis of
past and recent OTC and field study
data, ambient O3 exposures that occur
during the growing season in the United
States are sufficient to potentially affect
the annual growth of a number of
sensitive seedling tree species.
However, because most studies do not
take into account the possibility of carry
over effects on growth in subsequent
years, the true implication of these
annual biomass losses may be missed. It
is likely that under ambient exposure
conditions, some sensitive trees and
perennial plants could experience
compounded impacts that result from
multiple year exposures.
c. Visible Foliar Injury
Cellular injury can and often does
become visible. Acute injury usually
appears within 24 hours after exposure
to O3 and, depending on species, can
occur under a range of exposures and
durations from 0.040 ppm for a period
of 4 hours to 0.410 ppm for 0.5 hours
for crops and 0.060 ppm for 4 hours to
0.510 ppm for 1 hour for trees and
shrubs (Jacobson, 1977). Chronic injury
may be mild to severe. In some cases,
cell death or premature leaf senescence
may occur. The significance of O3 injury
at the leaf and whole plant levels
depends on how much of the total leaf
area of the plant has been affected, as
well as the plant’s age, size,
developmental stage, and degree of
functional redundancy among the
existing leaf area. As a result, it is not
presently possible to determine, with
consistency across species and
environments, what degree of injury at
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the leaf level has significance to the
vigor of the whole plant.
The presence of visible symptoms due
to O3 exposures can, however, by itself,
represent an adverse impact to the
public welfare. Specifically, it can
reduce the market value of certain leafy
crops (such as spinach, lettuce), impact
the aesthetic value of ornamentals (such
as petunia, geranium, and poinsettia) in
urban landscapes, and affect the
aesthetic value of scenic vistas in
protected natural areas such as national
parks and wilderness areas. Many
businesses rely on healthy looking
vegetation for their livelihoods (e.g.,
horticulturalists, landscapers, Christmas
tree growers, farmers of leafy crops) and
a variety of ornamental species have
been listed as sensitive to O3 (Abt,
1993). Though not quantified, there is
likely some level of economic impact to
businesses and homeowners from O3related injury on sensitive ornamental
species due to the cost associated with
more frequent replacement and/or
increased maintenance (fertilizer or
pesticide application). In addition,
because O3 not only results in
discoloration of leaves but can lead to
more rapid senescence (early shedding
of leaves) there potentially could be
some lost tourist dollars at sites where
fall foliage is less available or attractive.
The use of sensitive plants as
biological indicators to detect
phytotoxic levels of O3 is a longstanding
and effective methodology (Chappelka
and Samuelson, 1998; Manning and
Krupa, 1992). Each bioindicator exhibits
typical O3 injury symptoms when
exposed under appropriate conditions.
These symptoms are considered
diagnostic as they have been verified in
exposure-response studies under
experimental conditions. In recent
years, field surveys of visible foliar
injury symptoms have become more
common, with greater attention to the
standardization of methods and the use
of reliable indicator species (Campbell
et al., 2000; Smith et al., 2003).
Specifically, the United States Forest
Service (USFS) through the Forest
Health Monitoring Program (FHM)
(1990–2001) and currently the Forest
Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program
collects data regarding the incidence
and severity of visible foliar injury on a
variety of O3 sensitive plant species
throughout the U.S. (Coulston et al.
2003, 2004; Smith et al. 2003).
Since the conclusion of the 1996
NAAQS review, the FIA monitoring
program network and database has
continued to expand. This network
continues to document foliar injury
symptoms in the field under ambient
exposure conditions. Recent survey
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results show that O3-induced foliar
injury incidence is widespread across
the country. The visible foliar injury
indicator has been identified as a means
to track O3 exposure stress trends in the
nation’s natural plant communities as
highlighted in EPA’s most recent Report
on the Environment (EPA, 2003a;
https://www.epa.gov/indicators/roe).
Previous Criteria Documents have
noted the difficulty in relating visible
foliar injury symptoms to other
vegetation effects such as individual
tree growth, stand growth, or ecosystem
characteristics (EPA, 1996a) and this
difficulty remains to the present day
(EPA, 2006a). It is important to note that
direct links between O3 induced visible
foliar injury symptoms and other
adverse effects are not always found.
Therefore, visible foliar injury cannot
serve as a reliable surrogate measure for
other O3-related vegetation effects
because other effects (e.g., biomass loss)
have been reported with and without
visible injury. In a few cases, visible
foliar symptoms have been correlated
with decreased vegetative growth
(Karnosky et al., 1996; Peterson et al.,
1987; Somers et al., 1998) and with
impaired reproductive function (Black
et al., 2000; Chappelka, 2002).
Therefore, the lack of visible injury
should not be construed to indicate a
lack of phytotoxic concentrations of O3
nor absence of other non-visible O3
effects.
d. Reduced Plant Vigor
Though O3 levels over most of the
U.S. are not high enough to kill
vegetation directly, current levels have
been shown to reduce the ability of
many sensitive species and genotypes
within species to adapt to or withstand
other environmental stresses. These may
include increased susceptibility to
freezing temperatures, pest infestations
and/or root disease, and compromised
ability to compete for available
resources. For example, when species
with differing O3-sensitivities occur
together, the resulting decrease in
growth in O3-sensitive species may lead
to an increase in growth of more O3tolerant species, which are now able to
better compete for available resources.
The result of such above effects can
produce a loss in plant vigor in O3sensitive species that over time may
lead to premature plant death.
e. Ecosystems
Ecosystems are comprised of complex
assemblages of organisms and the
physical environment with which they
interact. Each level of organization
within an ecosystem has functional and
structural characteristics. At the
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ecosystem level, functional
characteristics include, but are not
limited to, energy flow; nutrient,
hydrologic, and biogeochemical cycling;
and maintenance of food chains. The
sum of the functions carried out by
ecosystem components provides many
benefits to humankind, as in the case of
forest ecosystems (Smith, 1992). Some
of these benefits, also termed
‘‘ecosystem goods and services’’,
include food, fiber production,
aesthetics, genetic diversity,
maintenance of water quality, air
quality, and climate, and energy
exchange. A conceptual framework for
discussing the effects of O3 on
ecosystems was developed by the EPA
Science Advisory Board (Young and
Sanzone, 2002). In this report, the
authors identify six essential ecological
attributes (EEAs) include landscape
condition, biotic condition, chemical/
physical condition, ecological
processes, hydrology/geomorphology,
and natural disturbance regime. Each
EEA is depicted as one of six triangles
that together build a hexagon. On the
outside of each triangle is a list of
stressors that can act on the EEA.
Tropospheric O3 is listed as a stressor of
both biotic condition and the chemical/
physical condition of ecosystems. As
each EEA is linked to all the others, it
is clearly envisioned in this framework
that O3 could either directly or
indirectly impact all of the EEAs
associated with an ecosystem that is
being stressed by O3.
Vegetation often plays an influential
role in defining the structure and
function of an ecosystem, as evidenced
by the use of dominant vegetation forms
to classify many types of natural
ecosystems, e.g., tundra, wetland,
deciduous forest, and conifer forest.
Plants simultaneously inhabit both
above- and below-ground environments,
integrating and influencing key
ecosystem cycles of energy, water, and
nutrients. When a sufficient number of
individual plants within a community
have been affected, O3-related effects
can be propagated up to ecosystem-level
effects. Thus, through its impact on
vegetation, O3 can be an important
ecosystem stressor.
i. Potential Ozone Alteration of
Ecosystem Structure and Function
The Criteria Document (EPA, 2006a)
outlines seven case studies where O3
effects on ecosystems have either been
documented or are suspected. The
oldest and clearest example involves the
San Bernardino Mountain forest
ecosystem in California. This system
experienced chronic high O3 exposures
over a period of 50 or more years. The
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O3-sensitive and co-dominant species of
ponderosa and Jeffrey pine
demonstrated severe levels of foliar
injury, premature senescence, and
needle fall that decreased the
photosynthetic capacity of stressed
pines and reduced the production of
carbohydrates resulting in a decrease in
radial growth and in the height of
stressed trees. It was also observed that
ponderosa and Jeffrey pines with slight
to severe crown injury lost basal area in
relation to competing species that are
more tolerant to O3. Due to a loss of
vigor, these trees eventually succumbed
to the bark beetle, leading to elevated
levels of tree death. Increased mortality
of susceptible trees shifted the
community composition towards white
fir and incense cedar, effectively
reversing the development of the normal
fire climax mixture dominated by
ponderosa and Jeffrey pines, and
leading to increased fire susceptibility.
At the same time, numerous other
organisms and processes were also
affected either directly or indirectly,
including successional patterns of
fungal microflora and their relationship
to the decomposer community. Nutrient
availability was influenced by the heavy
litter and thick needle layer under
stands with the most severe needle
injury and defoliation. The composition
of lichens was significantly reduced. In
this example, O3 appeared to be a
predisposing factor that led to increased
drought stress, windthrow, root
diseases, and insect infestation
(Takemoto et al., 2001). Thus, through
its effects on tree water balance, cold
hardiness, tolerance to wind, and
susceptibility to insect and disease
pests, O3 potentially impacted the
ecosystem-related EEA of natural
disturbance regime (e.g., fire, erosion).
Although the role of O3 was extremely
difficult to separate from other
confounding factors, such as high
nitrogen deposition, there is evidence
that this shift in species composition
has altered the structure and dynamics
of associated food webs (Pronos et al.,
1999) and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N)
cycling (Arbaugh et al., 2003). Ongoing
and new research in this important
ecosystem is needed to reveal the extent
to which ecosystem services have been
affected and to what extent strong
causal linkages between historic and/or
current ambient O3 exposures and
observed ecosystem-level effects can be
made.
Ozone has also been reported to be a
selective pressure among sensitive tree
species (e.g., eastern white pine) in the
east. The nature of community
dynamics in eastern forests is different,
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however, than in the west, consisting of
a wider diversity of species and uneven
aged stands, and the O3 levels are less
severe. Therefore, lower level chronic
O3 stress in the east is more likely to
produce subtle long-term forest
responses such as shifts in species
composition, rather than wide-spread
community degradation.
One of the best-documented studies of
population and community response to
O3 effects are the long-term studies of
common plantain (Plantago major) in
native plant communities in the United
Kingdom (Davison and Reiling, 1995;
Lyons et al., 1997; Reiling and Davison,
1992c). Elevated O3 significantly
decreased the growth of sensitive
populations of common plantain
(Pearson et al., 1996; Reiling and
Davison, 1992a, b; Whitfield et al.,
1997) and reduced its fitness as
determined by decreased reproductive
success (Pearson et al., 1996; Reiling
and Davison, 1992a). While spatial
comparisons of population responses to
O3 are complicated by other
environmental factors, rapid changes in
O3 resistance were imposed by ambient
levels and variations in O3 exposure
(Davison and Reiling, 1995).
Specifically, in this case study, it
appeared that O3-sensitive individuals
are being removed by O3 stress and the
genetic variation represented in the
population could be declining. If genetic
diversity and variation is lost in
ecosystems, there may be increased
vulnerability of the system to other
biotic and abiotic stressors, and
ultimately a change in the EEAs and
associated services provided by those
ecosystems.
Recent free-air exposure experiments
have also provided new insight into
how O3 may be altering ecosystem
structure and function (Karnosky et al.,
2005). For example, a field O3 exposure
experiment at the AspenFACE site in
Wisconsin (described in section
IV.A.2.b. above) was designed to
examine the effects of both elevated CO2
and O3 on mixed stands of aspen
(Populus tremuloides), birch (Betula
papyrifera), and sugar maple (Acer
saccharum) that are characteristic of
Great Lakes aspen-dominated forests
(Karnosky et al., 2003; Karnosky et al.,
1999). They found evidence that the
effects on above- and below-ground
growth and physiological processes
have cascaded through the ecosystem,
even affecting microbial communities
(Larson et al., 2002; Phillips et al.,
2002). This study also confirmed earlier
observations of O3-induced changes in
trophic interactions involving keystone
tree species, as well as important insect
pests and their natural enemies
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(Awmack et al., 2004; Holton et al.,
2003; Percy et al., 2002).
Collectively these examples suggest
that O3 is an important stressor in
natural ecosystems, but it is difficult to
quantify the contribution of O3 due to
the combination of other stresses
present in ecosystems. In most cases,
because only a few components in each
of these ecosystems have been examined
and characterized for O3 effects, the full
extent of ecosystem changes in these
example ecosystems is not fully
understood. Clearly, there is a need for
highly integrated ecosystem studies that
specifically investigate the effect of O3
on ecosystem structure and function in
order to fully determine the extent to
which O3 is altering ecosystem services.
Continued research, employing new
approaches, will be necessary to fully
understand the extent to which O3 is
affecting ecosystem services.
ii. Effects on Ecosystem Services and
Carbon Sequestration
Since it has been established that O3
affects photosynthesis and growth of
plants, O3 is most likely affecting the
productivity of forest ecosystems.
Therefore, it is desirable to link effects
on growth and productivity to essential
ecosystem services. However, it is very
difficult to quantify ecosystem-level
productivity losses because of the
amount of complexity in scaling from
the leaf-level or individual plant to the
ecosystem level, and because not all
organisms in an ecosystem are equally
affected by O3.
Terrestrial ecosystems are important
in the Earth’s carbon (C) balance and
could help offset emissions of CO2 by
humans if anthropogenic C is
sequestered in vegetation and soils. The
annual increase in atmospheric CO2 is
less than the total inputs from fossil fuel
burning and land use changes (Prentice
et al., 2001) and much of this
discrepancy is thought to be attributable
to CO2 uptake by plant photosynthesis
(Tans & White, 1998). Temperate forests
of the northern hemisphere have been
estimated to be a net sink of C per year
(Goodale et al. 2002). Ozone interferes
with photosynthesis, causes some plants
to senesce leaves prematurely and in
some cases, reduces allocation to stem
and root tissue. Thus, O3 decreases the
potential for C sequestration. For the
purposes of this discussion, C
sequestration is defined as the net
exchange of carbon by the terrestrial
biosphere. However, long-term storage
in the soil organic matter is considered
to be the most stable form of C storage
in ecosystems.
In a study including all ecosystem
types, Felzer et al. (2004), estimated that
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U.S. net primary production (net flux of
C into an ecosystem) was decreased by
2.6–6.8 percent due to O3 pollution in
the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. Ozone
not only reduces C sequestration in
existing forests, it can also affect
reforestation projects (Beedlow et al.
2004). This effect, in turn, has been
found to ultimately inhibit C
sequestration in forest soils which act as
long-term C storage (Loya et al., 2003;
Beedlow et al. 2004). The interaction of
rising O3 pollution and rising CO2
concentrations in the coming decades
complicates predictions of future
sequestration potential. Models
generally predict that, in the future, C
sequestration will increase with
increasing CO2, but often do not account
for the decrease in productivity due to
the local effects of tropospheric O3. In
the presence of high O3 levels, the
stimulatory effect of rising CO2
concentrations on forest productivity
has been estimated to be reduced by
more that 20 percent (Tingey et al.,
2001; Ollinger et al. 2002; Karnosky et
al., 2003).
In summary, it would be anticipated
that meeting lower O3 standards would
increase the amount of CO2 uptake by
many ecosystems in the U.S. However,
the amount of this improvement would
be heavily dependent on the species
composition of those ecosystems. Many
ecosystems in the U.S. do have O3
sensitive plants. For, example forest
ecosystems with dominant species such
as aspen or ponderosa pine would be
expected to increase CO2 uptake more
with lower O3 than forests with more O3
tolerant species.
A recent critique of the secondary
NAAQS review process published in the
report by the National Academy of
Sciences on Air Quality Management in
the United States (NRC, 2004) stated
that ‘‘EPA’s current practice for setting
secondary standards for most criteria
pollutants does not appear to be
sufficiently protective of sensitive crops
and ecosystems * * *.’’ This report
made several specific recommendations
for improving the secondary NAAQS
process and concluded that ‘‘There is
growing evidence that tighter standards
to protect sensitive ecosystems in the
United States are needed * * *.’’ An
effort has been recently initiated within
the Agency to identify indicators of
ecological condition whose responses
can be clearly linked to changes in air
quality that are attributable to Agency
environmental programs. Using a single
indicator to represent the complex
linkages and dynamic cycles that define
ecosystem condition will always have
limitations. With respect to O3-related
impacts on ecosystem condition, only
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two candidate indicators, foliar injury
(as described above) and radial growth
in trees, have been suggested. Thus,
while at the present time, most O3related effects on ecosystems must be
inferred from observed or predicted O3related effects on individual plants,
additional research at the ecosystem
level could identify new indicators and/
or establish stronger causal linkages
between O3-induced plant effects and
ecosystem condition.
f. Yield Reductions in Crops
Ozone can interfere with carbon gain
(photosynthesis) and allocation of
carbon with or without the presence of
visible foliar injury. As a result of
decreased carbohydrate availability,
fewer carbohydrates are available for
plant growth, reproduction, and/or
yield. Recent studies have further
confirmed and demonstrated O3 effects
on different stages of plant
reproduction, including pollen
germination, pollen tube growth,
fertilization, and abortion of
reproductive structures, as reviewed by
Black et al. (2000). For seed-bearing
plants, these reproductive effects will
culminate in reduced seed production
or yield.
As described in the last review and
again in the current Criteria Document
and Staff Paper, the National Crop Loss
Assessment Network (NCLAN) studies
undertaken in the early to mid-1980’s
provide the largest, most uniform
database on the effects of O3 on
agricultural crop yields. The NCLAN
protocol was designed to produce crop
exposure-response data representative
of the areas in the U.S. where the crops
were typically grown. In total, 15
species (e.g., corn, soybean, winter
wheat, tobacco, sorghum, cotton, barley,
peanuts, dry beans, potato, lettuce,
turnip, and hay [alfalfa, clover, and
fescue]), accounting for greater than 85
percent of U.S. agricultural acreage
planted at that time, were studied. Of
these 15 species, 13 species including
38 different cultivars were combined in
54 cases representing unique
combinations of cultivars, sites, water
regimes, and exposure conditions. Crops
were grown under typical farm
conditions and exposed in open-top
chambers to ambient O3 and increased
O3 above ambient (i.e., modified
ambient). Robust C–R functions were
developed for each of these crop
species. These results showed that 50
percent of the studied cases would be
protected from greater than 10 percent
yield loss at a W126 level of 21 ppmhour, while a W126 of 13 ppm-hour
would provide protection for 75 percent
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of the cases studied from greater than 10
percent yield loss.
Recent studies continue to find yield
loss levels in crop species studied
previously under NCLAN that reflect
the earlier findings57. In other words,
there has been no evidence that crops
are becoming more tolerant of O3 (EPA,
2006a). For cotton, some newer varieties
have been found to have higher yield
loss due to O3 compared to older
varieties (Olszyk et al., 1993, Grantz and
McCool, 1992). In a meta-analysis of 53
studies, Morgan et al. (2003) found
consistent deleterious effects of O3
exposures on soybean from studies
published between 1973 and 2001.
Further, early results from the fieldbased exposure experiment SoyFACE in
Illinois indicate a lack of any apparent
difference in the O3 tolerance of old and
recent cultivars of soybean in a study of
22 soybean varieties (Long et al., 2002).
Thus, the Staff Paper concluded that the
recent scientific literature continues to
support the conclusions of the 1996
Criteria Document that ambient O3
concentrations are reducing the yield of
major crops in the U.S.
In addition to the effects described on
annual crop species, several studies
published since the last review have
focused on perennial forage crops (EPA,
2006a). These recent results confirm
that O3 is also impacting yields and
quality of multiple-year forage crops at
sufficient magnitude to have nutritional
and possibly economic implications to
their use as ruminant animal feed at O3
exposures that occur in some years over
large areas of the U.S.
3. Adversity of Effects
The Staff Paper recognized that the
statute requires that a secondary
standard be protective against ‘‘adverse’’
O3 effects, not all identifiable effects. In
considering what constitutes a
vegetation effect that is adverse to the
public welfare, the Staff Paper
recognizes that O3 can cause a variety of
vegetation effects, beginning at the level
of the individual cell and accumulating
up to the level of whole leaves, plants,
plant populations, communities and
whole ecosystems, not all of which have
been classified in past reviews as
‘‘adverse’’ to public welfare.
Previous reviews have classified O3
vegetation effects as either ‘‘injury’’ or
‘‘damage’’ to help in determining
adversity. Specifically, ‘‘injury’’ is
57 Given the usefulness of generating robust C–R
functions such as have been developed under
NCLAN, it would be beneficial to employ a similar
protocol to update and expand this research to
include more recent and additional crop species
and varieties, such as fruit and vegetable species,
as well as recent O3 air quality.
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defined as encompassing all plant
reactions, including reversible changes
or changes in plant metabolism (e.g.,
altered photosynthetic rate), altered
plant quality, or reduced growth, that
does not impair the intended use or
value of the plant (Guderian, 1977). In
contrast, ‘‘damage’’ has been defined to
include those injury effects that reach
sufficient magnitude as to also reduce or
impair the intended use or value of the
plant. Examples of effects that are
classified as damage include reductions
in aesthetic values (e.g., foliar injury in
ornamental species) as well as losses in
terms of weight, number, or size of the
plant part that is harvested (reduced
yield or biomass production). Yield loss
also may include changes in crop
quality, i.e., physical appearance,
chemical composition, or the ability to
withstand storage, while biomass loss
includes slower growth in species
harvested for timber or other fiber uses.
While this construct has proved useful
in the past, it appears to be most useful
in the context of evaluating effects on
single plants or species grown in
monocultures such as agricultural crops
or managed forests. It is less clear how
it might apply to potential effects on
natural forests or entire ecosystems
when O3-induced species level impacts
lead to shifts in species composition
and/or associated ecosystem services
such as nutrient cycling or hydrologic
cycles, where the intended use or value
of the system has not been specifically
identified.
A more recent construct for assessing
risks to forests described in Hogsett et
al. (1997) suggests that ‘‘adverse effects
could be classified into one or more of
the following categories: (1) Economic
production, (2) ecological structure, (3)
genetic resources, and (4) cultural
values.’’ This approach expands the
context for evaluating the adversity of
O3-related effects beyond the species
level. Another recent publication, A
Framework for Assessing and Reporting
on Ecological Condition: an SAB report
(Young and Sanzone, 2002), provides
additional support for expanding the
consideration of adversity beyond the
species level by making explicit the
linkages between stress-related effects
(e.g., O3 exposure) at the species level
and at higher levels within an
ecosystem hierarchy. Taking this recent
literature into account, the Staff Paper
concludes that a determination of what
constitutes an ‘‘adverse’’ welfare effect
in the context of the secondary NAAQS
review can appropriately occur within
this broader paradigm.
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B. Biologically Relevant Exposure
Indices
The Criteria Document concluded that
O3 exposure indices that cumulate
differentially weighted hourly
concentrations are the best candidates
for relating exposure to plant growth
responses (EPA, 2006a). This conclusion
follows from the extensive evaluation of
the relevant studies in the 1996 Criteria
Document (EPA, 1996a) and the recent
evaluation of studies that have been
published since that time (EPA, 2006a).
The following selections, taken from
section 5.5 the 1996 Criteria Document
(EPA, 1996a), further elucidate the
depth and strength of these conclusions.
Specifically, with respect to the
importance of taking into account
exposure duration, the 1996 Criteria
Document stated, ‘‘when O3 effects are
the primary cause of variation in plant
response, plants from replicate studies
of varying duration showed greater
reductions in yield or growth when
exposed for the longer duration’’ and
‘‘the mean exposure index of
unspecified duration could not account
for the year-to-year variation in
response’’ (EPA, 1996a, pg. 5–96).
Further, ‘‘because the mean exposure
index treats all concentrations equally
and does not specifically include an
exposure duration component, the use
of a mean exposure index for
characterizing plant exposures appears
inappropriate for relating exposure with
vegetation effects’’ (EPA, 1996a, pg. 5–
88). Regarding the relative importance
of higher concentrations than lower in
determining plant response, the 1996
Criteria Document concluded that ‘‘the
ultimate impact of long-term exposures
to O3 on crops and seedling biomass
response depends on the integration of
repeated peak concentrations during the
growth of the plant’’ (EPA, 1996a, pg. 5–
104). Further, ‘‘at this time, exposure
indices that weight the hourly O3
concentrations differentially appear to
be the best candidates for relating
exposure with predicted plant
response’’ (EPA, 1996a, pgs. 5–136).
At the conclusion of the last review,
the biological basis for a cumulative,
seasonal form was not in dispute. There
was general agreement between the EPA
staff, CASAC, and the Administrator,
based on their review of the air quality
criteria, that a cumulative, seasonal
form was more biologically based than
the then current 1-hour and newly
proposed 8-hour average form.
However, in selecting a specific form
appropriate for a secondary standard,
there was less agreement. An evaluation
of the performance of several seasonal
cumulative forms in predicting plant
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response data taken from OTC
experiments had found that all
performed about equally well and was
unable to distinguish between them
(EPA, 1996a). In selecting between two
of these cumulative forms, the SUM06 58
and W126, in the absence of biological
evidence to distinguish between them,
the Administrator based her decision on
both science and policy considerations.
Specifically, these were: (1) All
cumulative, peak-weighted exposure
indices considered, including W126 and
SUM06, were about equally good as
exposure measures to predict exposureresponse relationships reported in the
NCLAN crop studies; and (2) the
SUM06 form would not be influenced
by PRB O3 concentrations (defined at
the time as 0.03 to 0.05 ppm) under
many typical air quality distributions.
On the basis of these considerations, the
Administrator chose the SUM06 as the
most appropriate cumulative, seasonal
form to consider when proposing an
alternative secondary standard form (61
FR 65716).
Though the scientific justification for
a cumulative, seasonal form was
generally accepted in the last review, an
analysis undertaken by EPA at that time
had shown that there was considerable
overlap between areas that would be
expected not to meet the range of
alternative 8-hour standards being
considered for the primary NAAQS and
those expected not to meet the range of
values (expressed in terms of the
seasonal SUM06 index) of concern for
vegetation. This result suggested that
improvements in national air quality
expected to result from attaining an 8hour primary standard within the
recommended range of levels would
also be expected to significantly reduce
levels of concern for vegetation in those
same areas. Thus, in the notice of
proposed rulemaking, the Administrator
proposed two alternatives for
consideration: one alternative was to
make the secondary standard equal in
every way to the proposed 8-hour, 0.08
ppm primary standard; and the second
was to establish a cumulative, seasonal
secondary standard in terms of a SUM06
form as also appropriate to protect
public welfare from known or
anticipated adverse effects given the
available scientific knowledge and that
such a seasonal standard ‘‘* * * is more
biologically relevant * * *’’ (61 FR
65716).
In the 1997 final rule, the
Administrator decided to make the
secondary standard identical to the
primary standard. She acknowledged,
58 SUM06: Sum of all hourly O concentrations
3
greater or equal to 0.06 ppm over a specified time.
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however, that ‘‘it remained uncertain as
to the extent to which air quality
improvements designed to reduce 8-hr
average O3 concentrations averaged over
a 3-year period would reduce O3
exposures measured by a seasonal
SUM06 index.’’ (62 FR 38876) In other
words, it was uncertain as to whether
the 8-hour average form would, in
practice, provide sufficient protection
for vegetation from the cumulative,
seasonal and concentration-weighted
exposures described in the scientific
literature as of concern.
On the basis of that history, chapter
7 of the current Staff Paper revisited the
issue of whether the SUM06 was still
the most appropriate choice of
cumulative, seasonal form for a
secondary standard to protect the public
welfare from known and anticipated
adverse vegetation effects in light of the
new information available in this
review. Specifically, the Staff Paper
considered: (1) The continued lack of
evidence within the vegetation effects
literature of a biological threshold for
vegetation exposures of concern; and (2)
new estimates of PRB that are lower
than in the last review. The W126 form,
also evaluated in the last review, was
again selected for comparison with the
SUM06 form. Regarding the first
consideration, the Staff Paper noted that
W126 form, by its incorporation of a
continuous sigmoidal weighting
scheme, does not create an artificially
imposed concentration threshold, yet
also gives proportionally more weight to
the higher and typically more
biologically potent concentrations, as
supported by the scientific evidence.
Second, the index value is not
significantly influenced by O3
concentrations within the range of
estimated PRB, as the weights assigned
to concentrations in this range are very
small. Thus, it would also provide a
more appropriate target for air quality
management programs designed to
reduce emissions from anthropogenic
sources contributing to O3 formation.
On the basis of these considerations, the
Staff Paper concludes that the W126
form is the most biologically-relevant
cumulative, seasonal form appropriate
to consider in the context of the
secondary standard review.
C. Vegetation Exposure and Impact
Assessment
The vegetation exposure and impact
assessment conducted for the current
review and described in the Staff paper,
consisted of exposure, risk and benefits
analyses and improves and builds upon
similar analyses performed in the last
review (EPA 1996b). The vegetation
exposure assessment was performed
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using interpolation and included
information from ambient monitoring
networks and results from air quality
modeling. The vegetation risk
assessment included both tree and crop
analyses. The tree risk analysis includes
three distinct lines of evidence: (1)
Observations of visible foliar injury in
the field linked to recent monitored O3
air quality for the years 2001–2004; (2)
estimates of seedling growth loss under
current and alternative O3 exposure
conditions; and (3) simulated mature
tree growth reductions using the
TREGRO model to simulate the effect of
meeting alternative air quality standards
on the predicted annual growth of a
single western species (ponderosa pine)
and two eastern species (red maple and
tulip poplar). The crop analysis
includes estimates of the risks to crop
yields from current and alternative O3
exposure conditions and the associated
change in economic benefits expected to
accrue in the agriculture sector upon
meeting the levels of various alternative
standards. Each element of the
assessment is described below,
including discussions of known sources
and ranges of uncertainties associated
with the elements of this assessment.
1. Exposure Characterization
Though numerous effects of O3 on
vegetation have been documented as
discussed above, it is important in
considering risk to examine O3 air
quality patterns in the U.S. relative to
the location of O3 sensitive species that
have a known concentration-response in
order to predict whether adverse effects
are occurring at current levels of air
quality, and whether they are likely to
occur under alternative standard forms
and levels.
The most important information about
exposure to vegetation comes from the
O3 monitoring data that are available
from two national networks: (1) Air
Quality System (AQS; https://
www.epa.gov/ttn/airs/airsaqs) and (2)
Clean Air Status and Trends Network
(CASTNET; https://www.epa.gov/
castnet/). The AQS monitoring network
currently has over 1100 active O3
monitors which are generally sited near
population centers. However, this
network also includes approximately 36
monitors located in national parks.
CASTNET is the nation’s primary
source for data on dry acidic deposition
and rural, ground-level O3. It consists of
over 80 sites across the eastern and
western U.S. and is cooperatively
operated and funded with the National
Park Service. In the 1997 final O3 rule,
it was acknowledged that because the
national air quality surveillance
network for O3 was designed principally
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to monitor O3 exposure in populated
areas, there was limited measured data
available to characterize O3 air quality
in rural and remote sites. Since the last
review, there has been a small increase
in the number of CASTNET sites (from
approximately 52 sites in 1992 to 84
sites in 2004), however these monitors
are not used for attainment
designations.
National parks represent areas of
nationally recognized ecological and
public welfare significance, which are
afforded a higher level of protection.
Two recent reports presented some
discussion of O3 trends in a subset of
national parks: The Ozone Report:
Measuring Progress Through 2003 (EPA,
2004), and 2005 Annual Performance
and Progress Report: Air Quality in
National Parks (NPS, 2005).
Unfortunately, much of this information
is presented only in terms of the current
8-hr average form. The Staff Paper
analyzed available air quality data in
terms of the cumulative 12-hour W126
form from 2001 to 2005 for a subset of
national parks and other significant
natural areas representing 4 general
regions of the U.S. Many of these
national parks and natural areas have
monitored O3 levels above
concentrations that have been shown to
decrease plant growth and above the 12hour W126 levels analyzed in this
review. For example, the Great Smokey
Mountain, Rocky Mountain, Grand
Canyon, Yosemite and Sequoia National
Parks all had more than one year within
the 2001–2005 period with a 12-hour
W126 above 21 ppm-hour. This level of
exposure has been associated with
approximately no more than 10 percent
biomass loss in 50 percent of the 49 tree
seedling cases studied in the NHEERL–
WED experiments (Lee and Hogsett,
1996). Black cherry (Prunus serotina),
an important O3-sensitive tree species in
the eastern U.S., occurs in the Great
Smoky Mountain National Park and is
estimated to have O3-related seedling
biomass loss of approximately 40
percent when exposed to a 3-month, 12hour W126 O3 level greater than 21
ppm-hour. Ponderosa pine (Pinus
ponderosa) which occurs in the Grand
Canyon, Yosemite and Sequoia National
Parks has been reported to have
approximately 10 percent biomass
losses at 3-month, 12-hour W126 O3
levels as low as 17 ppm-hour (Lee and
Hogsett, 1996). Impacts on seedlings
may potentially affect long-term tree
growth and survival, ultimately
affecting the competitiveness of O3sensitive tree species and genotypes
within forest stands.
In order to characterize exposures to
vegetation at the national scale,
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however, the Staff Paper concluded that
it could not rely solely on limited sitespecific monitoring data, and that it was
necessary to select an interpolation
method that could be used to
characterize O3 air quality over broad
geographic areas. The Staff Paper
therefore investigated the
appropriateness of using the O3 outputs
from the EPA/NOAA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) 59 model
system (https://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/
CMAQ, Byun and Ching, 1999; Arnold
et al. 2003, Eder and Yu, 2005) to
improve spatial interpolations based
solely on existing monitoring networks.
Due to the significant resources required
to run CMAQ, model outputs were only
available for a limited number of years.
For this review, 2001 outputs from
CMAQ version 4.5 were the most recent
available.
Based on the significant difference in
monitor network density between the
eastern and western U.S., the Staff Paper
concluded that it was appropriate to use
separate interpolation techniques in
these two regions. AQS and CASTNET
monitoring data were solely used for the
eastern interpolation since it was
determined that enhancing the
interpolation with CMAQ data did not
add much information to the eastern
U.S. interpolation. In the western U.S.,
where rural monitoring is more sparse,
O3 values generated by the CMAQ
model were used to develop scaling
factors to augment the interpolation.
In order to characterize uncertainty in
the interpolation method, monitored O3
concentrations were systematically
compared to interpolated O3
concentrations in areas where monitors
were located. In general, the
interpolation method used in the
current review performed well in many
areas in the U.S., although it underpredicted higher 12-hour W126
exposures in rural areas. Due to the
important influence of higher exposures
in determining risks to plants, this
feature of the interpolated surface could
result in an under-estimation of risks to
vegetation in some areas. Taking these
uncertainties into account, and given
the absence of more complete rural
59 The CMAQ model is a multi-pollutant,
multiscale air quality model that contains state-ofthe-science techniques for simulating all
atmospheric and land processes that affect the
transport, transformation, and deposition of
atmospheric pollutants and/or their precursors on
both regional and urban scales. It is designed as a
science-based modeling tool for handling many
major pollutants (including photochemical
oxidants/O3, particulate matter, and nutrient
deposition) holistically. The CMAQ model can
generate estimates of hourly O3 concentrations for
the contiguous U.S., making it possible to express
model outputs in terms of a variety of exposure
indices (e.g., W126, 8-hour average).
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monitoring data, this approach was used
in developing national vegetation
exposure and risk assessments that
estimate relative changes in risk for the
various alternative standards analyzed.
To evaluate changing vegetation
exposures and risks under selected air
quality scenarios, the Staff Paper
utilized adjusted 2001 base year O3 air
quality distributions with a rollback
method (Horst and Duff, 1995; Rizzo,
2005 & 2006) to reflect meeting the
current and alternative secondary
standard options. This technique
combines both linear and quadratic
elements to reduce higher O3
concentrations more than lower ones. In
this regard, the rollback method
attempts to account for reductions in
emissions without greatly affecting
lower concentrations. The following O3
air quality scenarios were analyzed: (1)
4th-highest daily maximum 8-hour
average: 0.084 ppm (the effective level
of the current standard) and 0.070 ppm
levels; (2) 3-month, 12-hour. SUM06: 25
ppm-hour (proposed in the 1996 review)
and 15 ppm-hour levels; and (3) 3month, 12-hour. W126: 21 ppm-hour
and 13 ppm-hour levels.
The two 8-hour average levels were
chosen as possible alternatives of the
current form for comparison with the
cumulative, seasonal alternative forms.
The SUM06 scenarios were very similar
to the W126 scenarios. Since the W126
was judged to be the more biologicallyrelevant cumulative, seasonal form, only
the results for the W126 scenarios are
summarized below. For the W126 form,
the two levels were selected on the basis
of the associated levels of tree seedling
biomass loss and crop yield loss
protection identified in the NHEERL–
WED and NCLAN studies, respectively.
Specifically, the upper level of W126
(21 ppm-hour) was associated with a
level of tree and crop protection of
approximately no more than 10 percent
growth or yield loss in 50 percent of
cases studied. Alternatively, the lower
level of W126 (13 ppm-hour) was
associated with a level of tree seedling
and crop protection of approximately no
more than 10 percent growth or yield
loss in 75 percent of studied cases.
The following discussion highlights
key observations drawn from comparing
predicted changes in interpolated air
quality under each alternative standard
form and level scenario for the base
year, 2001:
(1) Under the base year (2001) ‘‘as is’’
air quality, a large portion of California
had 12-hr W126 O3 levels above 31
ppm-hour, which has been associated
with approximately no more than 14
percent biomass loss in 50 percent of
tree seedling cases studies. Broader
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multi-state regions in the east (NC, TN,
KY, IN, OH, PA, NJ, NY, DE, MD, VA)
and west (CA, NV, AZ, OK, TX) are
predicted to have levels of air quality
above the W126 level of 21 ppm-hour,
which is approximately equal to the
secondary standard proposed in 1996
and is associated with approximately no
more than 10 percent biomass loss in 50
percent of tree seedling cases studied.
Much of the east and Arizona and
California have 12-hour W126 O3 levels
above 13 ppm-hour which has been
associated with approximately no more
than 10 percent biomass loss in 75
percent of tree seedling cases studied.
The results of the exposure assessment
indicate that current air quality levels
could result in significant impacts to
vegetation in some areas.
(2) When 2001 air quality is rolled
back to meet the current 8-hour
secondary standard, the overall 3-month
12-hour W126 O3 levels were somewhat
improved, but not substantially. Under
this scenario, there were still many
areas in California with 12-hour W126
O3 levels above 31 ppm-hour. A broad
multi-state region in the east (NC, TN,
KY, IN, OH, PA, MD) and west (CA, NV,
AZ, OK, TX) were still predicted to have
O3 levels above the W126 level of 21
ppm-hour.
(3) Exposures generated for just
meeting a 0.070 ppm, 4th-highest
maximum 8-hour average alternative
standard showed substantially
improved O3 air quality when compared
to just meeting the current 0.08 ppm, 8hour standard. Most areas were
predicted to have O3 levels below the
W126 level of 21 ppm-hr, although
some areas in the east (KY, TN, MI, AR,
MO, IL) and west (CA, NV, AZ, UT, NM,
CO, OK, TX) were still predicted to have
O3 levels above the W126 level of 13
ppm-hour.
These results suggest that meeting a
proposed 0.070 ppm, 8-hour secondary
standard would provide substantially
improved protection in some areas for
vegetation from seasonal O3 exposures
of concern. The Staff Paper recognizes,
however, that some areas meeting a
0.070 ppm 8-hour standard could
continue to have elevated seasonal
exposures, including forested park lands
and other natural areas, and Class I
areas which are federally mandated to
preserve certain air quality related
values. This is especially important in
the high elevation forests in the Western
U.S. where there are few O3 monitors.
This is because the air quality patterns
in remote areas can result in relatively
low 8-hour averages while still
experiencing relatively high cumulative
exposures.
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To further characterize O3 air quality
in terms of current and alternative
secondary standard forms, an analysis
was performed in the Staff Paper to
evaluate the extent to which countylevel O3 air quality measured in terms
of various levels of the current 8-hour
average form overlapped with that
measured in terms of various levels of
the 12-hour W126 cumulative, seasonal
form. The Staff Paper presented this
analysis using recent (2002–2004) 60
county-level O3 air quality data from
AQS sites and the subset of CASTNET
sites having the highest O3 levels for the
counties in which they are located.
Since the current 8-hour average
secondary form is a 3-year average, the
analysis initially compared the 3-year
averages of both the 8-hour and W126
forms. In addition, recognizing that
some vegetation effects (e.g. crop yield
loss and foliar injury) are driven solely
by annual O3 exposures and are
typically evaluated with respect to
exposures within the annual growing
season, the Staff Paper also presented a
comparison of the current 3-year
average 8-hour form to the annual W126
form for the individual years, 2002 and
2004.
Results of the 3-year average
comparisons showed that of the
counties with air quality meeting the 3year average form of the 0.08 ppm, 8hour average standard, 7 counties
showed 3-year average W126 values
above the 21 ppm-hour level. At the
lower W126 level of 13 ppm-hours, 135
counties with air quality meeting the 3year average form of the 0.08 ppm, 8hour average standard, would be above
this W126 level. In addition, when the
3-year average of the 8-hour form was
compared to annual W126 values,
further variability in the degree of
overlap between the 8-hour form and
W126 form became apparent. For
example, the relatively high 2002 O3 air
quality year showed a greater degree of
overlap between those areas that would
meet the levels analyzed for the current
8-hour and alternative levels of the
W126 form than did the relatively low
O3 2004 air quality year. This lack of a
consistent degree of overlap between the
two forms in different air quality years
demonstrates that annual vegetation
would be expected to receive widely
differing degrees of protection from
cumulative seasonal exposures in some
areas from year to year, even when the
3-year average of the 8-hour form was
consistently met.
60 This analysis was updated using 2003–2005 air
quality as it became available, finding similar
results.
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It is clear that this analysis is limited
by the lack of monitoring in rural areas
where important vegetation and
ecosystems are located, especially at
higher elevation sites. This is because
O3 air quality distributions at high
elevation sites often do not reflect the
typical urban and near-urban pattern of
low morning and evening O3
concentrations with a high mid-day
peak, but instead maintain relatively flat
patterns with many concentrations in
the mid-range (e.g., 0.05–0.09 ppm) for
extended periods. These conditions can
lead to relatively low daily maximum 8hour averages concurrently with high
cumulative values so that there is
potentially less overlap between an 8hour average and a cumulative, seasonal
form at these sites. The Staff Paper
concludes that it is reasonable to
anticipate that additional unmonitored
rural high elevation areas important for
vegetation may not be adequately
protected even with a lower level of the
8-hour form.
The Criteria Document (EPA, 2006a),
discusses policy relevant background
(PRB) levels for high elevation sites and
makes the following observations: (1)
PRB concentrations of 0.04 to 0.05 ppm
occur occasionally at high-elevation
sites (e.g., >1.5 km) in the spring due to
the free-tropospheric influence,
including some limited contribution
from hemispheric pollution (O3
produced from anthropogenic emissions
outside North America); and (2)
stratospheric intrusions might
occasionally elevate O3 at high-altitude
sites, however, these events are rare.
Therefore, the Staff Paper concludes
that springtime PRB levels in the range
identified above and rare stratospheric
intrusions of O3 are unlikely to
influence 3 month cumulative seasonal
W126 values significantly.
It further remains uncertain as to the
extent to which air quality
improvements designed to reduce 8hour O3 average concentrations would
reduce O3 exposures measured by a
seasonal, cumulative W126 index. The
Staff Paper indicated this to be an
important consideration because: (1)
The biological database stresses the
importance of cumulative, seasonal
exposures in determining plant
response; (2) plants have not been
specifically tested for the importance of
daily maximum 8-hour O3
concentrations in relation to plant
response; and (3) the effects of
attainment of an 8-hour standard in
upwind urban areas on rural air quality
distributions cannot be characterized
with confidence due to the lack of
monitoring data in rural and remote
areas. These factors are important
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considerations in determining whether
the current 8-hour form can
appropriately provide requisite
protection for vegetation.
2. Assessment of Risk to Vegetation
The Staff Paper presents results from
quantitative and qualitative risk
assessments of O3 risks to vegetation
(EPA, 2007). In the last review, crop
yield and seedling biomass loss OTC
data provided the basis for staff
analyses, conclusions, and
recommendations (EPA, 1996b). Since
then, several additional lines of
evidence have progressed sufficiently to
provide staff with a more complete and
coherent picture of the scope of O3related vegetation risks, especially those
currently faced by seedling, sapling and
mature tree species growing in field
settings, and indirectly, forested
ecosystems. Specifically, new research
reflects an increased emphasis on fieldbased exposure methods (e.g., free air
exposure and ambient gradient),
improved field survey biomonitoring
techniques, and mechanistic tree
process models. Findings from each of
these research areas are discussed
separately below. In conducting these
assessments, the Staff Paper analyses
relied on both measured and modeled
air quality information. For some
effects, like visible foliar injury and
modeled mature tree growth response,
only monitored air quality information
was used. For other effects categories
(e.g., crop yield and tree seedling
growth), staff relied on interpolated O3
exposures.
a. Visible Foliar Injury
As discussed earlier (Section A),
recent systematic injury surveys
continue to document visible foliar
injury symptoms diagnostic of
phytotoxic O3 exposures on sensitive
bioindicator plants. These surveys
produced more expansive evidence than
that available at the time of the last
review that visible foliar injury is
occurring in many areas of the U.S.
under current ambient conditions. The
Staff Paper presents an assessment
combining recent U.S. Forest Service
Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)
biomonitoring site data with the county
level air quality data for those counties
containing the FIA biomonitoring sites.
This assessment showed that incidence
of visible foliar injury ranged from 21 to
39 percent during the four-year period
(2001–2004) across all counties with air
quality levels at or below that of the
current 0.08 8-hour standard. Of the
counties that met an 8-hour level of 0.07
ppm in those years, 11 to 30 percent
still had incidence of visible foliar
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injury. The magnitude of these
percentages suggests that phytotoxic
exposures sufficient to induce visible
foliar injury would still occur in many
areas after meeting the level of the
current secondary standard or
alternative 0.07 ppm 8-hour standard.
Additionally, the data show that visible
foliar injury occurrence is
geographically widespread and is
occurring on a variety of plant species
in forested and other natural systems.
Linking visible foliar injury to other
plant effects is still problematic.
However, its presence indicates that
other O3-related vegetation effects could
also be present.
b. Seedling and Mature Tree Biomass
Loss
In the last review (EPA, 1996b),
analyses of the effects of O3 on trees
were limited to 11 tree species for
which C–R functions for the seedling
growth stage had been developed from
OTC studies conducted by the
NHEERL–WED. Important tree species
such as quaking aspen, ponderosa pine,
black cherry, tulip poplar were found to
be sensitive to cumulative seasonal O3
exposures. Work done since the 1996
review at the AspenFACE site in
Wisconsin on quaking aspen (Karnosky
et al., 2005) and a gradient study
performed in the New York City area
(Gregg et al. 2003) has confirmed the
detrimental effects of O3 exposure on
tree growth in field studies without
chambers and beyond the seedling stage
(King et al., 2005). These field studies
are discussed above in section IV.A.
To update the seedling biomass loss
analysis, C–R functions for biomass loss
for available seedling tree species taken
from the CD and information on tree
growing regions derived from the U.S.
Department of Agriculture’s Atlas of
United States Trees were combined with
projections of air quality based on 2001
interpolated exposures, to produce
estimated biomass loss for each of the
seedling tree species individually. Maps
of these biomass loss projections are
presented in the Staff Paper. For
example, quaking aspen had a wide
range of O3 exposure across its growing
range and therefore, showed significant
variability in projected seedling biomass
loss across its range. Quaking aspen
seedling biomass loss was projected to
be greater than 4 percent over much of
its geographic range, though it can reach
above 10 percent in areas of Ohio,
Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey
and California. Biomass loss for black
cherry was projected to be greater than
20 percent in approximately half its
range. Greater than 30 percent biomass
loss for black cherry was projected in
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North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan,
New York, New Jersey, Maryland and
Delaware. For ponderosa pine, an
important tree species in the western
U.S., biomass loss was projected to be
above 10 percent in much of its range
in California. Biomass loss still occurred
in many tree species when O3 air quality
was adjusted to meet the current 8-hour
standard. For instance, black cherry,
ponderosa pine, eastern white pine, and
aspen had estimated median seedling
biomass losses over portions of their
growing range as high as 24, 11, 6, and
6 percent, respectively, when O3 air
quality was rolled back to just meet the
current 8-hour standard. The Staff Paper
noted that these results are for tree
seedlings and that mature trees of the
same species may have more or less of
a response to O3 exposure. Due to the
potential for compounding effects over
multiple years, a consensus workshop
on O3 effects reported that a biomass
loss greater than 2 percent annually can
be significant (Heck and Cowling, 1997).
Decreased seedling root growth and
survivability could affect overall stand
health and composition in the long
term.
In addition to the estimation of O3
effects on seedling growth, recent work
has enhanced our understanding of risks
beyond the seedling stage. In order to
better characterize the potential O3
effects on mature tree growth, a tree
growth model (TREGRO) was used as a
tool to evaluate the effect of changing O3
air quality scenarios from just meeting
alternative O3 standards on the growth
of mature trees. TREGRO is a processbased, individual tree growth
simulation model (Weinstein et al.,
1991) and has been used to evaluate the
effects of a variety of O3 scenarios and
linked with concurrent climate data to
account for O3 and climate/meteorology
interactions on several species of trees
in different regions of the U.S. (Tingey
et al., 2001; Weinstein et al., 1991;
Retzlaff et al., 2000; Laurence et al.,
1993; Laurence et al., 2001; Weinstein et
al., 2005). The model provides an
analytical framework that accounts for
the nonlinear relationship between O3
exposure and response. The interactions
between O3 exposure, precipitation and
temperature are integrated as they affect
vegetation, thus providing an internal
consistency for comparing effects in
trees under different exposure scenarios
and climatic conditions. An earlier
assessment of the effectiveness of
national ambient air quality standards
in place since the early 1970s took
advantage of 40 years of air quality and
climate data for the Crestline site in the
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San Bernardino Mountains of California
to simulate ponderosa pine growth over
time with the improving air quality
using TREGRO (Tingey et al., 2004).
The TREGRO model was used to
assess growth of Ponderosa pine in the
San Bernardino Mountains of California
(Crestline) and the growth of yellow
poplar and red maple in the
Appalachian mountains of Virginia and
North Carolina, Shenandoah National
Park (Big Meadows) and Linville Gorge
Wilderness Area (Cranberry),
respectively. Total tree growth
associated with ’as is’ air quality, and
air quality adjusted to just meet
alternative O3 standards was assessed.
Ponderosa pine is one of the most
widely distributed pines in western
North America, a major source of
timber, important as wildlife habitat,
and valued for aesthetics (Burns and
Honkala, 1990). Red maple is one of the
most abundant species in the eastern
U.S. and is important for its brilliant fall
foliage and highly desirable wildlife
browse food (Burns and Honkala, 1990).
Yellow poplar is an abundant species in
the southern Appalachian forest. It is 10
percent of the cove hardwood stands in
southern Appalachians which are
widely viewed as some of the country’s
most treasured forests because the
protected, rich, moist set of conditions
permit trees to grow the largest in the
eastern U.S. The wood has high
commercial value because of its
versatility and as a substitute for
increasingly scarce softwoods in
furniture and framing construction.
Yellow poplar is also valued as a honey
tree, a source of wildlife food, and a
shade tree for large areas (Burns and
Honkala, 1990).
The Staff Paper analyses found that
just meeting the current standard would
likely continue to allow O3-related
reductions in annual net biomass gain
in these species. This is based on model
outputs that estimate that as O3 levels
are reduced below those of the current
standard, significant improvements in
growth would occur. For instance,
estimated growth in red maple
increased by 4 and 3 percent at Big
Meadows and Cranberry sites,
respectively, when air quality was
rolled back to just met a W126 value of
13 ppm-hour. Yellow poplar was
projected to have a growth increase
between 0.6 and 8 percent under the
same scenario at the two eastern sites.
Though there is uncertainty
associated with the above analyses, this
information should be given careful
consideration in light of several other
pieces of evidence. Specifically, new
evidence from experimental studies that
go beyond the seedling growth stage
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continues to show decreased growth
under elevated O3 (King et al., 2005).
Some mature trees such as red oak have
shown an even greater sensitivity of
photosynthesis to O3 than seedlings of
the same species (Hanson et al., 1994).
As indicated above, smaller growth loss
increments may be significant for
perennial species. The potential for
cumulative ‘‘carry over’’ effects as well
as compounding must be considered.
The accumulation of such ‘‘carry-over’’
effects over time may affect long-term
survival and reproduction of
individuals and ultimately the
abundance of sensitive tree species in
forest stands.
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c. Crops
As discussed in the Staff Paper, risk
of O3 exposure and associated
monetized benefits were estimated for
commodity crops, fruits and vegetables.
Similar to the tree seedling analysis, this
analysis combined C–R information on
crops, crop growing regions and
interpolated exposures during each crop
growing season. NCLAN crop functions
were used for commodity crops.
According to USDA National
Agricultural Statistical Survey (NASS)
data, the 9 commodity crop species (e.g.,
cotton, field corn, grain sorghum,
peanut, soybean, winter wheat, lettuce,
kidney bean, potato) included in the
Staff Paper analysis accounted for 69
percent of 2004 principal crop acreage
planted in the U.S. in 2004.61 The C–R
functions for six fruit and vegetable
species (tomatoes-processing, grapes,
onions, rice, cantaloupes, Valencia
oranges) were identified from the
California fruit and vegetable analysis
from the last review (Abt 1995). The
Staff Paper noted that fruit and
vegetable studies were not part of the
NCLAN program and C–R functions
were available only in terms of seasonal
7-hour or 12-hour mean index. This
index form is considered less effective
in predicting plant response for a given
change in air quality than the
cumulative form used with other crops.
Therefore, the fruit and vegetable C–R
functions were considered more
uncertain than those for commodity
crops.
Analyses in the Staff Paper showed
that some of the most important
commodity crops such as soybean,
61 Principal crops as defined by the USDA
include corn, sorghum, oats, barley, winter wheat,
rye, Durum wheat, other spring wheat, rice,
soybeans, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, dry edible
beans, potatoes, sugar beets, canola, proso millet,
hay, tobacco, and sugarcane. Acreage data for the
principal crops were taken from the USDA NASS
2005 Acreage Report (https://
usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/pcpbba/acrg0605.pdf).
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winter wheat and cotton had some
projected losses under the 2001 base
year air quality. Soybean yield losses
were projected to be 2–4 percent in
parts of Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
Maryland and Texas. Winter wheat was
projected to have yield losses of 2–6
percent in parts of California.
Additionally, cotton was projected to
have yield losses of above 6 percent in
parts of California, Texas and North
Carolina in 2001. The risk assessment
estimated that just meeting the current
8-hour standard would still allow O3related yield loss to occur in some
commodity crop species and fruit and
vegetable species currently grown in the
U.S. For example, based on median C–
R function response, in counties with
the highest O3 levels, potatoes and
cotton had estimated yield losses of 9–
15 percent and 5–10 percent,
respectively, when O3 air quality just
met the level of the current standard.
Estimated yield improved in these
counties when the alternative W126
standard levels were met. The very
important soybean crop had generally
small yield losses throughout the
country under just meeting the current
standard (0–4 percent).
The Staff Paper also presented
estimates of monetized benefits for
crops associated with the current and
alternative standards. The Agriculture
Simulation Model (AGSIM) (Taylor,
1994; Taylor, 1993) was used to
calculate annual average changes in
total undiscounted economic surplus for
commodity crops and fruits and
vegetables when current and alternative
standard levels were met. Meeting the
various alternative standards did show
some significant benefits beyond the
current 8-hour standard. However, the
Staff Paper recognized the AGSIM
modeled economic benefits had many
uncertainties: For example, much of the
economic benefits were from the fruits
and vegetables which had uncertain C–
R relationships, there was uncertainty in
assumptions about the treatment and
effect of government farm payment
programs, and there was also
uncertainty about near-term changes in
agriculture sector due to the increased
use of crops as biofuels. Although the
AGSIM model results provided a
relative comparison of agricultural
benefits between alternative standards,
the uncertainties limited the utility of
the absolute numbers.
D. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the
Current Standard
1. Background
The initial issue to be addressed in
the current review of the secondary O3
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standard is whether, in view of the
advances in scientific knowledge
reflected in the Criteria Document and
additional information on exposure and
risk discussed in the Staff Paper, the
existing standard should be revised. The
current secondary standard is a 3-year
average of the annual 4th-highest
maximum 8-hour average O3
concentration set at a level of 0.08 ppm.
In evaluating whether it is appropriate
to retain or revise the current secondary
O3 standard, the Administrator adopts
an approach in this review that builds
upon the general approach used in the
last review and reflects the broader body
of evidence now available.
In developing proposed conclusions
on the adequacy of the current
secondary O3 standard, the
Administrator has considered a weightof-evidence approach that evaluated
information across the variety of
vegetation-related research areas
described in the Criteria Document (e.g.,
seedling, sapling and mature forest tree
species growth stages and commodity,
fruit, vegetable and forage crop species),
and included the assessments of air
quality, exposures, and qualitative and
quantitative risks associated with
alternative air quality scenarios.
Evidence-based considerations included
assessment of vegetation effects
evidence obtained from chamber, free
air, gradient, model and field-based
observation studies across an array of
vegetation effects endpoints. Exposureand risk-based considerations were
drawn from exposure and risk
assessments that relied upon both
monitored and interpolated O3
exposures as described in the Staff
Paper. These assessments reflect the
availability of new tools and assessment
methods, as well as the larger and more
diverse body of evidence available since
the last review. Specifically, estimates
of exposures and risks associated with
recent O3 air quality levels, as well as
estimates of the relative magnitude of
exposure and risk reductions potentially
associated with meeting the current 8hour secondary O3 NAAQS and
alternative standards, have also been
considered, along with all known
associated uncertainties.
In this review, a series of general
questions frames the approach to
reaching a proposed decision on the
adequacy of the current standard,
beginning with: (1) To what extent does
newly available information reinforce or
call into question evidence of
associations of O3 exposures with effects
identified in the last review?; (2) to what
extent does newly available information
reinforce or call into question any of the
basic elements of the current standard?;
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and (3) to what extent have important
uncertainties identified in the last
review been reduced and have new
uncertainties emerged? To the extent the
available information suggests that
revision of the current standard may be
appropriate, the question of whether the
available information supports
consideration of a standard that is either
more or less protective than the current
standard is addressed, including: (1)
Whether there is evidence that
vegetation effects extend to ambient O3
concentration levels that are as low as
or lower than had previously been
observed, and what are the important
uncertainties associated with that
evidence?; (2) whether vegetation
exposures and risks of concern
estimated to occur in areas upon
meeting the current standard are
considered important from a public
welfare perspective; and (3) what are the
important uncertainties associated with
the estimated risks?
The current secondary standard was
selected to provide protection to the
public welfare against a range of O3induced vegetation effects, particularly
yield loss in agricultural crops and
biomass loss in tree seedlings. As an
introduction to the discussion in this
section of the adequacy of the current
O3 standard, it is useful to summarize
the key factors that formed the basis of
the decision in the last review to revise
the averaging time, level and form of the
then current 1-hour secondary standard.
In the 1996 proposal notice (61 FR
65716), the Administrator proposed to
replace the then existing 1-hour O3
secondary NAAQS with one of two
alternative new standards: a standard
identical to the proposed and now
current 0.08 ppm, 8-hour primary
standard (described above), or
alternatively, a new seasonal standard,
SUM06, expressed as a sum of hourly
concentrations greater than or equal to
0.06 ppm, cumulated daily over a 12
hour daylight window (8 am to 8 pm)
during the maximum consecutive 3month period (e.g., the consecutive 3
month period with the highest SUM06
index value) during the O3 monitoring
season, set at a level of 25 ppm-hours.
The latter form and level were selected
to provide protection to vegetation on
the basis of annual, rather than 3-year
average, exposures.
In the final rule for the O3 NAAQS
published in July 1997 (62 FR 38877),
the Administrator decided to replace the
then current 1-hour, 0.12-ppm
secondary NAAQS with a standard that
was identical in every way to the new
revised primary standard of an 0.08
ppm annual 4th-highest maximum 8hour average standard averaged over 3
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years. Her decision was based on: (1)
Her judgment that the then existing
secondary standard did not provide
adequate protection for vegetation
against the adverse welfare effects of O3;
(2) CASAC advice ‘‘that a secondary
NAAQS, more stringent than the present
primary standard, was necessary to
protect vegetation from O3’’ (Wolff,
1996); (3) her judgment that the new 8hour average standard would provide
substantially improved protection for
vegetation from O3-related adverse
effects as compared to the level of
protection provided by the then current
1-hour, 0.12-ppm secondary standard;
(4) recognition that significant
uncertainties remained with respect to
exposure dynamics, air quality
relationships, and the exposure, risk,
and monetized valuation analyses
presented in the proposal, resulting in
only rough estimates of the increased
public welfare likely to be afforded by
each of the proposed alternative
standards; (5) her judgment that there
was value in allowing more time to
obtain additional information to better
characterize O3-related vegetation
effects under field conditions from
additional research and to develop a
more complete rural monitoring
network and air quality database from
which to evaluate the elements of an
appropriate seasonal secondary
standard; and (6) her judgment that
there was value in allowing more time
to evaluate more specifically the
improvement in rural air quality and in
O3-related vegetation effects resulting
from measures designed to attain the
new primary standard (62 FR 38877–
78).
The Administrator further concluded
(62 FR 38877–78) that continued
research on the effects of O3 on
vegetation under field conditions and
on better characterizing the relationship
between O3 exposure dynamics and
plant response would be important in
the next review because: (1) The
available biological database highlighted
the importance of cumulative, seasonal
exposures as a primary determinant of
plant responses; (2) the association
between daily maximum 8-hour O3
concentrations and plant responses had
not been specifically examined in field
tests; (3) the impacts of attaining an 8hour, 0.08 ppm primary standard in
upwind urban areas on rural air quality
distributions could not be characterized
with confidence due to limited
monitoring data and air quality
modeling in rural and remote areas.
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2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based
Considerations
The new evidence available in this
review as described in the Criteria
Document continues to support and
strengthen key policy-relevant
conclusions drawn in the previous
review (EPA, 2006a). Based on this new
evidence, the current Criteria Document
once more concludes that: (1) A plant’s
response to O3 depends upon the
cumulative nature of ambient exposure
as well as the temporal dynamics of
those concentrations; (2) current
ambient concentrations in many areas of
the country are sufficient to impair
growth of numerous common and
economically valuable plant and tree
species; (3) the entrance of O3 into the
leaf through the stomata is the critical
step in O3 effects; (4) effects can occur
with only a few hourly concentrations
above 0.08 ppm; (5) other
environmental biotic and abiotic factors
are also influential to the overall impact
of O3 on plants and trees; and (6) a high
degree of uncertainty remains in our
ability to assess the impact of O3 on
ecosystem services.
In light of the new evidence, as
described in the Criteria Document, the
Staff Paper evaluates the adequacy of
the current standard based on
assessments of both the most policyrelevant vegetation effects evidence and
exposure and risk-based information, as
summarized above in sections IV.A and
IV.C, respectively. In evaluating the
strength of this information, the Staff
Paper takes into account the
uncertainties and limitations in the
scientific evidence and analyses as well
as the views of CASAC. The Staff Paper
concludes that progress has been made
since the last review and generally finds
support in the available effects- and
exposure/risk-based information for
consideration of an O3 standard that is
more protective than the current
standard. The Staff Paper further
concludes that there is no support for
consideration of an O3 standard that is
less protective than the current
standard. This general conclusion is
consistent with the advice and
recommendations of CASAC.
a. Evidence-Based Considerations
In the last review, crop yield and tree
seedling biomass loss data obtained in
OTC studies provided the basis for the
Administrator’s judgment that the then
current 1-hour, 0.12 ppm secondary
standard was inadequate (EPA, 1996b).
Since then, several additional lines of
evidence have progressed sufficiently to
provide a more complete and coherent
picture of the scope of O3-related
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vegetation risks, especially those
currently faced by sensitive seedling,
sapling and mature growth stage tree
species growing in field settings, and
their associated forested ecosystems.
Specifically, new research reflects an
increased emphasis on field-based
exposure methods (e.g., free air, ambient
gradient, and biomonitoring surveys). In
reaching conclusions regarding the
adequacy of the current standard, the
Staff Paper has considered the
combined information from all these
areas together, along with associated
uncertainties, in an integrated, weightof-evidence approach.
Regarding the O3-induced effect of
visible foliar injury, observations for the
years 2001 to 2004 at USDA FIA
biomonitoring sites showed widespread
O3-induced leaf injury occurring in the
field, including in forested ecosystems,
under current ambient O3 conditions.
For a few studied species, it has been
shown that the presence of visible foliar
injury is further linked to the presence
of other vegetation effects (e.g., reduced
plant growth and impaired below
ground root development) (EPA, 2006),
though for most species, this linkage has
not been specifically studied or where
studied, has not been found.
Nevertheless, when visible foliar injury
is present, the possibility that other O3induced vegetation effects could also be
present for some species should be
considered. Likewise, the absence of
visible foliar injury should not be
construed to demonstrate the absence of
other O3-induced vegetation effects. The
Staff Paper concludes that it is not
possible at this time to quantitatively
assess the degree of visible foliar injury
that should be judged adverse in all
settings and across all species, and that
other environmental factors can mitigate
or exacerbate the degree of O3-induced
visible foliar injury expressed at any
given concentration of O3. However, the
Staff Paper also concludes that the
presence of visible foliar injury alone
can be adverse to the public welfare,
especially when it occurs in protected
areas such as national parks and
wilderness areas. Thus, on the basis of
the available information on the
widespread distribution of O3-sensitive
species within the U.S. including in
areas, such as national parks, which are
afforded a higher degree of protection,
the Staff Paper concludes that the
current standard continues to allow
levels of visible foliar injury in some
locations that could reasonably be
considered to be adverse from a public
welfare perspective. Additional
monitoring of both O3 air quality and
foliar injury levels are needed in these
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areas of national significance to more
fully characterize the spatial extent of
this public welfare impact.
With respect to O3-induced biomass
loss in trees, the Staff Paper concludes
that the significant new body of fieldbased research on trees strengthens the
conclusions drawn on tree seedling
biomass loss from earlier OTC work by
documenting similar seedling responses
in the field. For example, recent
empirical studies conducted on quaking
aspen at the AspenFACE site in
Wisconsin have confirmed the
detrimental effects of O3 exposure on
tree growth in a field setting without
chambers (Isebrands et al., 2000, 2001).
In addition, results from an ambient
gradient study (Gregg et al., 2003),
which evaluated biomass loss in
cottonwood along an urban-to-rural
gradient at several locations, found that
conditions in the field were sufficient to
produce substantial biomass loss in
cottonwood, with larger impacts
observed in downwind rural areas due
to the presence of higher O3
concentrations. These gradients from
low urban to higher rural O3
concentrations occur when O3
precursors generated in urban areas are
transported to downwind sites and are
transformed into O3. In addition,O3
concentrations typically fall to near 0
ppm at night in urban areas due to
scavenging of O3 by NOX and other
compounds. In contrast, rural areas, due
to a lack of nighttime scavenging, tend
to maintain elevated O3 concentrations
for longer periods. On the basis of such
key studies, the Staff Paper concludes
that the expanded body of field-based
evidence, in combination with the
substantial corroborating evidence from
OTC data, provides stronger evidence
than that available in the last review
that ambient levels of O3 are sufficient
to produce visible foliar injury
symptoms and biomass loss in sensitive
vegetative species growing in natural
environments. Further, the Staff Paper
judges that the consistency in response
in studied species/genotypes to O3
under a variety of exposure conditions
and methodologies demonstrates that
these sensitive genotypes and
populations of plants are susceptible to
adverse impacts from O3 exposures at
levels known to occur in the ambient
air. Due to the potential for
compounded risks from repeated insults
over multiple years in perennial species,
the Staff Paper concludes that these
sensitive subpopulations are not
afforded adequate protection under the
current secondary O3 standard. Despite
the fact that only a relatively small
portion of U.S. plant species have been
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studied with respect to O3 sensitivity,
those species/genotypes shown to have
O3 sensitivity span a broad range of
vegetation types and public use
categories, including direct-use
categories like food production for
human and domestic animal
consumption; fiber, materials, and
medicinal production; urban/private
landscaping. Many of these species also
contribute to the structure and
functioning of natural ecosystems (e.g.,
the EEAs) and thus, to the goods and
services those ecosystems provide
(Young and Sanzone, 2002), including
non-use categories such as relevance to
public welfare based on their aesthetic,
existence or wildlife habitat value.
The Staff Paper therefore concludes
that the current secondary standard is
inadequate to protect the public welfare
against the occurrence of known adverse
levels of visible foliar injury and tree
seedling biomass loss occurring in tree
species (e.g., ponderosa pine, aspen,
black cherry, cottonwood) that are
sensitive and clearly important to the
public welfare.
b. Exposure- and Risk-Based
Considerations
The Staff Paper also presents the
results of exposure and risk
assessments. Due to multiple sources of
uncertainty, both known and unknown,
that continue to be associated with these
analyses, the Staff Paper put less weight
on this information in drawing
conclusions on the adequacy of the
current standard. However, the Staff
Paper also recognizes that some progress
has been made since the last review in
better characterizing some of these
associated uncertainties and, therefore
concluded that the results of the
exposure and risk assessments continue
to provide information useful to
informing judgments as to the relative
changes in risks predicted to occur
under exposure scenarios associated
with the different standard alternatives
considered. Importantly, with respect to
two key uncertainties, the uncertainty
associated with continued reliance on
C–R functions developed from OTC
exposure systems to predict plant
response in the field and the potential
for changes in tree seedling and crop
sensitivities in the intervening period
since the C–R functions were
developed, the Staff Paper concluded
that recent research has provided
information useful in judging how much
weight to put on these concerns.
Specifically, new field-based studies,
conducted on a limited number of tree
seedling and crop species to date,
demonstrate plant growth and visible
foliar injury responses in the field that
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are similar in nature and magnitude to
those observed previously under OTC
exposure conditions, lending qualitative
support to the conclusion that OTC
conditions do not fundamentally alter
the nature of the O3-plant response.
Second, nothing in the recent literature
suggests that the O3 sensitivity of crop
or tree species studied in the last review
and for which C–R functions were
developed has changed significantly in
the intervening period. Indeed, in the
few recent studies where this is
examined, O3 sensitivities were found to
be as great as or greater than those
observed in the last review.
i. Seedling and Mature Tree Biomass
Loss
Biomass loss in sensitive tree
seedlings is predicted to occur under O3
exposures that meet the level of the
current secondary standard. For
instance, black cherry, ponderosa pine,
eastern white pine, and aspen had
estimated median seedling biomass
losses as high as 24, 11, 6, and 6
percent, respectively, over some
portions of their growing ranges when
air quality was rolled back to meet the
current 8-hr standard with the 10
percent downward adjustment for the
potential O3 gradient between monitor
height and short plant canopies applied.
The Staff Paper notes that these results
are for tree seedlings and that mature
trees of the same species may have more
or less of a response to O3 exposure.
Decreased root growth associated with
biomass loss has the potential to
indirectly affect the vigor and
survivability of tree seedlings. If such
effects occur on a sufficient number of
seedlings within a stand, overall stand
health and composition can be affected
in the long term. Thus, the Staff Paper
concludes that these levels of estimated
tree seedling growth reduction should
be considered significant and
potentially adverse, given that they are
well above the 2 percent level of
concern identified by the 1997
consensus workshop (Heck and
Cowling, 1997).
Though there is significant
uncertainty associated with this
analysis, the Staff Paper recommends
that this information should be given
careful consideration in light of several
other pieces of evidence. Specifically,
limited evidence from experimental
studies that go beyond the seedling
growth stage continues to show
decreased growth under elevated O3
levels (King et al., 2005). Some mature
trees such as red oak have shown an
even greater sensitivity of
photosynthesis to O3 than seedlings of
the same species (Hanson et al., 1994).
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The potential for effects to ‘‘carry over’’
to the following year or cumulate over
multiple years, including the potential
for compounding, must be considered.
The accumulation of such ‘‘carry-over’’
effects over time may affect long-term
survival and reproduction of individual
trees and ultimately the abundance of
sensitive tree species in forest stands.
ii. Qualitative Ecosystem Risks
In addition to the quantifiable risk
categories discussed above, the Staff
Paper presents qualitative discussions
on a number of other public welfare
effects categories. In so doing, the Staff
Paper concludes that the quantified
risks to vegetation estimated to be
occurring under current air quality or
upon meeting the current secondary
standard likely represent only a portion
of actual risks that may be occurring for
a number of reasons.
First, as mentioned above, out of the
over 43,000 plant species catalogued as
growing within the U.S. (USDA
PLANTS database, USDA, NRCS, 2006),
only a small percentage have been
studied with respect to O3 sensitivity.
Most of the studied species were
selected because of their commercial
importance or observed O3-induced
visible foliar injury in the field. Given
that O3 impacts to vegetation also
include less obvious but often more
significant impacts, such as reduced
annual growth rates and below ground
root loss, the paucity of information on
other species means the number of O3sensitive species that exists within U.S.,
could be greater than what is now
known. Since no state in the lower 48
states has less than seven known O3sensitive plant species, with the
majority of states having between 11
and 30 (see Appendix 7J–2 in Staff
Paper), protecting O3 sensitive
vegetation is clearly important to the
public welfare at the national scale.
Second, the Staff Paper also takes into
consideration the possibility that more
subtle and hidden risks to ecosystems
are potentially occurring in areas where
vegetation is being significantly
impacted. Given the importance of these
qualitative and anticipated risks to
important public welfare effects
categories such as ecosystem impacts
leading to potential losses or shifts in
ecosystem goods and services (e.g.,
carbon sequestration, hydrology, and
fire disturbance regimes), the Staff Paper
concludes that any secondary standard
set to protect against the known and
quantifiable adverse effects to vegetation
should also consider the anticipated,
but currently unquantifiable, potential
effects on natural ecosystems.
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iii. Crop Yield Loss
Exposure and risk assessments in the
Staff Paper estimated that meeting the
current 8-hour standard would still
allow O3-related yield loss to occur in
several fruit and vegetable and
commodity crop species currently
grown in the U.S. These estimates of
crop yield loss are substantially lower
than those estimated in the last review
as a result of several factors, including
adjusted exposure levels to reflect the
presence of a variable O3 gradient
between monitor height and crop
canopies, and use of a different
econometric agricultural benefits model
updated to reflect more recent
agricultural policies (EPA, 2006b).
Though these sources of uncertainty
associated with the crop risk and
benefits assessments were better
documented in this review, the Staff
Paper concludes that the presence of
these uncertainties make the risk
estimates suitable only as a basis for
understanding potential trends in
relative yield loss and economic
benefits. The Staff Paper further
recognizes that actual conditions in the
field and management practices vary
from farm to farm, that agricultural
systems are heavily managed, and that
adverse impacts from a variety of other
factors (e.g., weather, insects, disease)
can be orders of magnitude greater than
that of yield impacts predicted for a
given O3 exposure. Thus, the relevance
of such estimated impacts on crop
yields to the public welfare are
considered highly uncertain and less
useful as a basis for assessing the
adequacy of the current standard. The
Staff Paper notes, however, that in some
experimental cases, exposure to O3 has
made plants more sensitive or
vulnerable to some of these other
important stressors, including disease,
insect pests, and harsh weather (EPA,
2006a). The Staff Paper therefore
concluded that this remains an
important area of uncertainty and that
additional research to better
characterize the nature and significance
of these interactions between O3 and
other plant stressors would be useful.
c. Summary
In summary, the Staff Paper
concludes that the current secondary O3
standard is inadequate. This conclusion
is based on the extensive vegetation
effects evidence, in particular the recent
empirical field-based evidence on
biomass loss in seedlings, saplings and
mature trees, and foliar injury incidence
that has become available in this review,
which demonstrates the occurrence of
adverse vegetation effects at ambient
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levels of recent O3 air quality, as well as
evidence and exposure- and risk-based
analyses indicating that adverse effects
would be predicted to occur under air
quality scenarios that meet the current
standard.
3. CASAC Views
In a letter to the Administrator
(Henderson, 2006c), the CASAC O3
Panel, with full endorsement of the
chartered CASAC, unanimously
concluded that ‘‘despite limited recent
research, it has become clear since the
last review that adverse effects on a
wide range of vegetation including
visible foliar injury are to be expected
and have been observed in areas that are
below the level of the current 8-hour
primary and secondary ozone
standards.’’ Therefore, ‘‘based on the
Ozone Panel’s review of Chapters 7 and
8 [of the Staff Paper], the CASAC
unanimously agrees that it is not
appropriate to try to protect vegetation
from the substantial, known or
anticipated, direct and/or indirect,
adverse effects of ambient O3 by
continuing to promulgate identical
primary and secondary standards for O3.
Moreover, the members of the
Committee and a substantial majority of
the Ozone Panel agree with EPA staff
conclusions and encourage the
Administrator to establish an alternative
cumulative secondary standard for O3
and related photochemical oxidants that
is distinctly different in averaging time,
form and level from the currently
existing or potentially revised 8-hour
primary standard’’ (Henderson,
2006c).62
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4. Administrator’s Proposed
Conclusions Concerning Adequacy of
Current Standard
The Administrator recognizes that the
secondary standard is to protect against
‘‘adverse’’ O3 effects, discussed above in
section IV.A.3. In considering what
constitutes a vegetation effect that is
also adverse to the public welfare, the
Administrator took into account the
Staff Paper conclusions regarding the
nature and strength of the vegetation
effects evidence, the exposure and risk
assessment results, the degree to which
62 One CASAC Panel member reached different
conclusions from those of the broader Panel
regarding certain aspects of the vegetation effects
information and the appropriate degree of emphasis
that should be placed on the associated
uncertainties. These concerns related to how the
results of O3/vegetation exposure experiments
carried out in OTC can be extrapolated to the
ambient environment and how C–R functions
developed in the 1980’s can be used today given
that he did not expect that current crop species/
cultivars in use in 2002 would have the same O3
sensitivity as those studied in NCLAN (Henderson,
2007, pg. C–18).
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the associated uncertainties should be
considered in interpreting the results,
and the views of CASAC and members
of the public. On these bases, the
Administrator proposes that the current
secondary standard is inadequate to
protect the public welfare from known
and anticipated adverse O3-related
effects on vegetation and ecosystems.
Ozone levels that would be expected to
remain after meeting the current
secondary standard are sufficient to
cause visible foliar injury, seedling and
mature tree biomass loss, and crop yield
reductions to degrees that could be
considered adverse depending on the
intended use of the plant and its
significance to the public welfare, and
the current secondary standard does not
provide adequate protection from such
effects. Other O3-induced effects
described in the literature, including an
impaired ability of many sensitive
species and genotypes within species to
adapt to or withstand other
environmental stresses, such as freezing
temperatures, pest infestations and/or
disease, and to compete for available
resources, would also be anticipated to
occur. In the long run, the result of these
impairments (e.g., loss in vigor) could
lead to premature plant death in O3
sensitive species. Though effects on
other ecosystem components have only
been examined in isolated cases, effects
such as those described above could
have significant implications for plant
community and associated species
biodiversity and the structure and
function of whole ecosystems. These
considerations also support the
proposed conclusion that the current
secondary standard is not adequate and
that revision is needed to provide
additional public welfare protection.
E. Conclusions on the Elements of the
Secondary Standard
Given his proposed conclusion that
the current secondary standard is
inadequate, the Administrator then
considered what revisions to the
standard are appropriate. In so doing,
the Administrator has focused on
revisions to the key standard elements
of indicator, form, averaging time, and
level. On the basis of the strength and
coherence of the vegetation effects
evidence suggesting that a biologicallybased standard for vegetation, at a
minimum, should cumulate exposures
and differentially-weight higher O3
concentrations, the Administrator
judges that it is appropriate to consider
revisions to the secondary standard that
reflect this understanding. In addition,
the Administrator also judges that the
current 8-hour average form, though not
based on the most biologically relevant
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and coherent vegetation effects
literature, can also provide substantially
improved protection to vegetation when
set at an appropriate level. Therefore,
the Administrator also considered
whether revision to the level of the
current 8-hour secondary standard
might provide the requisite level of
public welfare protection. In light of
these considerations, as discussed
below, the Administrator is proposing
two options for revising the current
secondary standard: one option is a
cumulative seasonal standard (section
IV.E.2) and the other option is an 8-hour
average standard consistent with the
revised 8-hour average standard
proposed above for the primary
standard (section IV.E.3). The
Administrator has also considered an
alternative approach to setting a
cumulative, seasonal standard(s) as
described below in section IV.E.2.
1. Indicator
In the last review, EPA focused on a
standard for O3 as the most appropriate
surrogate for ambient photochemical
oxidants. In this review, while the
complex atmospheric chemistry in
which O3 plays a key role has been
highlighted, no alternatives to O3 have
been advanced as being a more
appropriate surrogate for ambient
photochemical oxidants. Thus, as is the
case for the primary standard,
(discussed above in section II.D.1.), the
Administrator proposes to continue to
use O3 as the indicator for a standard
that is intended to address effects
associated with exposure to O3, alone
and in combination with related
photochemical oxidants. In so doing,
the Administrator recognizes that
measures leading to reductions in
vegetation exposures to O3 will also
reduce exposures to other
photochemical oxidants.
2. Cumulative, Seasonal Standard
The Administrator proposes to
replace the current secondary standard
with a new cumulative, seasonal
standard expressed as an index of the
annual sum of weighted hourly
concentrations (using the W126 form),
set at a level in the range of 7 to 21 ppmhours. The index would be cumulated
over the 12-hour daylight period (8 a.m.
to 8 p.m.) during the consecutive 3month period within the O3 season with
the maximum index value. In addition,
as discussed below, the Administrator is
considering an alternative approach to
setting a cumulative, seasonal
standard(s) that would afford differing
degrees of protection for O3-related
impacts on different types of vegetation
with different intended uses.
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a. Form
The current Criteria Document and
Staff Paper concluded that the recent
vegetation effects literature evaluated in
this review strengthens and reaffirms
conclusions made in the last review that
the use of a cumulative exposure index
that differentially-weights ambient
concentrations is best able to relate
ambient exposures to vegetation
response at this time (EPA, 2006a, b; see
also discussion in IV.B. above). The
1996 review focused in particular on
two of these cumulative forms, the
SUM06 and W126. As described in the
last review (EPA, 1996a, b) it was
concluded that, based on statistical
reanalysis of the NCLAN data, these
different cumulative forms performed
equally well in predicting crop yield
loss response to O3 exposure. Given that
the data available at that time were
unable to distinguish between these
forms, the Administrator, based on the
policy consideration of not including O3
concentrations considered to be within
the PRB, concluded that the SUM06
form was the more appropriate choice
for a secondary standard.
In this review, the Staff Paper
evaluated the continued
appropriateness of the SUM06 form in
light of two key pieces of information:
new estimates of PRB that are lower
than in the last review, and continued
lack of evidence within the vegetation
effects literature of a biological
threshold for vegetation exposures of
concern. On the basis of those policy
and science-related considerations, the
Staff Paper concluded that the W126
form was more appropriate in the
context of this review. Specifically, the
W126, by its incorporation of a
sigmoidal weighting scheme, does not
create an artificially imposed
concentration threshold, gives
proportionally more weight to the
higher and typically more biologically
potent concentrations, and is not
significantly influenced by O3
concentrations within the range of
estimated PRB.
The CASAC, based on its assessment
of the same vegetation effects science,
agreed with the Criteria Document and
Staff Paper and unanimously concluded
that it is not appropriate to try to protect
vegetation from the known or
anticipated adverse effects of ambient
O3 by continuing to promulgate
identical primary and secondary
standards for O3. Moreover, the
members of CASAC and a substantial
majority of the CASAC O3 Panel agreed
with Staff Paper conclusions and
encouraged the Administrator to
establish an alternative cumulative
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secondary standard for O3 and related
photochemical oxidants that is
distinctly different in averaging time,
form, and level from the current or
potentially revised 8-hour primary
standard. The CASAC also stated that
‘‘the recommended metric for the
secondary ozone standard is the
(sigmoidally-weighted) W126 index’’
(Henderson, 2007).63
The Administrator agrees with the
conclusions drawn in the Criteria
Document, Staff Paper and by CASAC
that the scientific evidence available in
the current review continues to
demonstrate the cumulative nature of
O3-induced plant effects and the need to
give greater weight to higher
concentrations. Thus, the Administrator
concludes that a cumulative exposure
index that differentially-weights O3
concentrations represents a reasonable
policy choice for a seasonal secondary
standard to protect against the effects of
O3 on vegetation. The Administrator
further agrees with both the Staff Paper
and CASAC that the most appropriate
cumulative, concentration-weighted
form to consider in this review is the
sigmoidally weighted W126 form, due
to his recognition that there is no
evidence in the literature for an
exposure threshold that would be
appropriate across all O3-sensitive
vegetation and that this form is unlikely
to be significantly influenced by O3 air
quality within the range of PRB levels
identified in this review. Thus, the
Administrator proposes as one option to
replace the current 8-hour average
secondary standard form with the
cumulative, seasonal W126 form.
b. Averaging Times 64
The Staff Paper, in addition to form,
also considers what ‘‘averaging’’ periods
or exposure durations are most relevant
for vegetation, which, unlike people, is
exposed to ambient air continuously
throughout its lifespan. For annual
species, this lifespan encompasses a
period of only one year or less; while for
perennials, lifespans can range from a
few years to decades or centuries.
However, because O3 levels are not
continuously elevated and plants are
not equally sensitive to O3 over the
course of a day, season or lifetime, it
becomes necessary to identify periods of
exposure that have the most relevance
63 One CASAC Panel member expressed the view
that the O3 exposure indices, SUM06 and W126, are
simply mathematical expressions of exposure and,
thus, cannot be said to have a biological basis
(Henderson, 2007, pg. C–18).
64 While the term ‘‘averaging time’’ is used, for
the cumulative, seasonal standard the time period
at issue is one over which exposures during a
specified period of time are cumulated, not
averaged.
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for plant response. Exposure periods are
discussed below in terms of a seasonal
window, a diurnal window, and an
annual versus 3-year average standard.
(1) In considering an appropriate
seasonal window, the Staff Paper
recognizes that, in general, many annual
crops are grown for periods of a few
months before being harvested. In
contrast, other annual and perennial
species may be photosynthetically
active longer, and for some species and
locations, throughout the entire year. In
general, the period of maximum
physiological activity and thus,
maximum potential O3 uptake for
annual crops, herbaceous species, and
deciduous trees and shrubs coincides
with some or all of the intra-annual
period defined as the O3 season, which
varies on a state-by-state basis. This is
because the high temperature and high
light conditions that promote the
formation of tropospheric O3 also
promote physiological activity in
vegetation.
The Staff Paper notes that the
selection of any single seasonal
exposure period for a national standard
would represent a compromise, given
the significant variability in growth
patterns and lengths of growing seasons
among the wide range of vegetation
species occurring within the U.S. that
may experience adverse effects
associated with O3 exposures. However,
the Staff Paper further concludes that
the consecutive 3-month period within
the O3 season with the highest W126
index value (e.g., maximum 3 month
period) would, in most cases, likely
coincide with the period of greatest
plant sensitivity on an annual basis.
Therefore, the Staff Paper again
concludes, as it did in 1996, that the
annual maximum consecutive 3-month
period is a reasonable seasonal time
period, when combined with a
cumulative, concentration weighted
form, for protection of sensitive
vegetation.
(2) In considering an appropriate
diurnal window, the Staff Paper
recognizes that over the course of the
24-hour diurnal period, plant stomatal
conductance varies in response to
changes in light level, soil moisture and
other environmentally and genetically
controlled factors. In general, stomata
are most open during daylight hours in
order to allow sufficient CO2 uptake for
use in carbohydrate production through
the light-driven process of
photosynthesis. At most locations, O3
concentrations are also highest during
the daytime, and thus, most likely to
coincide with maximum stomatal
uptake. It is also known however, that
in some species, stomata may remain
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open sufficiently at night to allow for
some nocturnal uptake to occur. In
addition, at some rural, high elevation
sites, the O3 concentrations remain
relatively flat over the course of the day,
often at levels above estimated PRB. At
these sites, nighttime W126 values can
be of similar magnitude as daytime
values, though the significance of these
exposures is much less certain. This is
because O3 uptake during daylight
hours is known to impair the lightdriven process of photosynthesis, which
can then lead to impacts on
carbohydrate production, plant growth,
reproduction (yield) and root function.
It is less clear at this time to what extent
and by what mechanisms O3 uptake at
night adversely impacts plant function.
In addition, many species do not take
up O3 at night or occur in areas with
elevated nighttime O3 concentrations.
In light of a recent work on this topic
conducted by Musselman and Minnick
(2000), the Staff Paper again revisited
the issue of what diurnal period is of
most relevance in influencing O3induced effects on vegetation. This work
reports that some species take up O3 at
night, but that the degree of nocturnal
stomatal conductance varies widely
between species and its relevance to
overall O3-induced vegetation effects
remain unclear. In considering this
information, the Staff Paper concludes
that for the vast majority of studied
species, daytime exposures represent
the majority of diurnal plant O3 uptake
and are responsible for inducing the
plant response of most significance to
the health and productivity of the plant
(e.g., reduced carbohydrate production).
Until additional information is available
about the extent to which co-occurrence
of sensitive species and elevated
nocturnal O3 exposures exists, and what
levels of nighttime uptake are adverse to
affected species, the Staff Paper
concludes that this information
continues to be preliminary, and does
not provide a basis for reaching a
different conclusion at this time. The
Staff Paper further notes that additional
research is needed to address the degree
to which a 12-hour diurnal window may
be under protective in areas where
elevated nighttime levels of O3 co-occur
with sensitive species with a high
degree of nocturnal stomatal
conductance. Thus, as in the last
review, the Staff Paper again concludes
that based on the available science, the
daytime 12-hour window (8 a.m. to 8
p.m.) is the most appropriate period
over which to cumulate diurnal O3
exposures, specifically those most
relevant to plant growth and yield
responses.
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(3) In considering whether an annual
or 3-year averaging period is more
appropriate, the Staff Paper recognized
that though most cumulative seasonal
exposure levels of concern for
vegetation have been expressed in terms
of the annual timeframe, it may be
appropriate to consider a 3-year
averaging period for purposes of
standard stability. However, the Staff
Paper notes that for certain welfare
effects of concern (e.g., foliar injury,
yield loss for annual crops, growth
effects on other annual vegetation and
potentially tree seedlings), an annual
time frame may be a more appropriate
period in which to assess what level
would provide the requisite degree of
protection, while for other welfare
effects (e.g., mature tree biomass loss), a
3-year averaging period may also be
appropriate. Thus, the Staff Paper
concludes that it is appropriate to
consider both an annual and a 3-year
averaging period. Further, the Staff
Paper concludes that should a 3-year
average of the 12-hour W126 form be
selected, a potentially lower level
should be considered to reduce the
potential of adverse impacts to annual
species from a single high O3 year that
could still occur while attaining a
standard on average over 3-years.
The CASAC, in considering what
seasonal and diurnal time periods are
most appropriate when combined with
a cumulative, concentration-weighted
form to protect vegetation from
exposures of concern, agreed that the
Staff Paper conclusion regarding the 3month seasonal period and 12-hour
daylight window was appropriate, with
the distinction that both time
designations likely represents the
minimum time periods of importance.
In particular, one O3 Panel member
commented that for some species,
additional O3 exposures of importance
were occurring outside the 3-month
seasonal and 12-hour diurnal windows.
Further, the CASAC concluded that
multi-year averaging to promote a
‘‘stable’’ secondary standard is less
appropriate for a cumulative, seasonal
secondary standard than for a primary
standard based on maximum 8-hour
concentrations. CASAC further
concluded that if multi-year averaging is
employed to increase the stability of the
secondary standard, the level of the
standard should be revised downward
to assure that the desired degree of
protection is not exceeded in individual
years.
The Administrator, in determining
which seasonal and diurnal time
periods are most appropriate to propose,
took into account Staff Paper and
CASAC views. The Administrator, in
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being careful to consider what is needed
to provide the requisite degree of
protection, no more and no less,
proposes that the 3-month seasonal
period and 12-hour daylight period are
appropriate. Based on the Staff Paper
conclusions discussed above, the
Administrator is mindful that there is
the potential for under-protection with
a 12-hour diurnal window in areas with
sufficiently elevated nighttime levels of
O3 where sensitive species with a high
degree of nocturnal stomatal
conductance occur. On the other hand,
the Administrator also recognizes that a
longer diurnal window (e.g., 24-hour)
has the possibility of over-protecting
vegetation in areas where nighttime O3
levels remain relatively high but where
no species having significant nocturnal
uptake exist. In weighing these
considerations, the Administrator agrees
with the Staff Paper conclusion that
until additional information is available
about the extent to which this cooccurrence of sensitive species and
elevated nocturnal O3 exposures exists,
and what levels of nighttime uptake are
adverse to affected species, this
information does not provide a basis for
reaching a different conclusion at this
time. The Administrator also considered
to what extent the 3-month period
within the O3 season was appropriate,
recognizing that many species of
vegetation have longer growing seasons.
The Administrator further proposes that
the maximum 3-month period is
sufficient and appropriate to
characterize O3 exposure levels
associated with known levels of plant
response. Therefore, the Administrator
proposes that the most appropriate
exposure periods for a cumulative,
seasonal form is the daytime 12-hour
window (8 a.m. to 8 p.m.) during the
consecutive 3-month period within the
O3 monitoring season with the
maximum W126 index value.
The Administrator also proposes an
annual rather than a multi-year
cumulative, seasonal standard. In
proposing this alternative, the
Administrator also believes that it is
appropriate to consider the benefits to
the public welfare that would accrue
from establishing a 3-year average
secondary standard, and solicits
comment on this alternative. In so
doing, the Administrator also agrees
with Staff Paper and CASAC
conclusions that should a 3-year
standard be finalized, the level of the
standard should be set so as to provide
the requisite degree of protection for
those vegetation effects judged to be
adverse to the public welfare within a
single annual period.
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seedlings like black cherry from growth
and foliar injury effects.
In addition to the currently
quantifiable risks to trees from ambient
exposures, the Staff Paper also considers
the more subtle impacts of O3 acting in
synergy with other natural and manmade stressors to adversely affect
individual plants, populations and
whole systems. By disrupting the
photosynthetic process, decreasing
carbon storage in the roots, increasing
early senescence of leaves and affecting
water use efficiency in trees, O3
exposures could potentially disrupt or
change the nutrient and water flow of an
entire system. Weakened trees can
become more susceptible to other
environmental stresses such as pest and
pathogen outbreaks or harsh weather
conditions. Though it is not possible to
quantify all the ecological and societal
benefits associated with varying levels
of alternative secondary standards, the
Staff Paper concludes that this
information should be weighed in
considering the extent to which a
secondary standard should be set so as
to provide potential protection against
effects that are anticipated to occur.
In addition, the Staff Paper also
recognizes that in the last review, the
Administrator took into account the
results of a 1996 consensus-building
workshop as described in a January
1997 report (Heck and Cowling, 1997).
At this workshop, a group of
independent scientists expressed their
judgments on what standard form(s) and
level(s) would provide vegetation with
adequate protection from O3-related
adverse effects. Consensus was reached
with respect to selecting appropriate
ranges of levels in terms of a
cumulative, seasonal 3-month, 12-hr
SUM06 standard for a number of
vegetation effects endpoints. These
ranges are identified below, with the
estimated approximate equivalent W126
standard values shown in parentheses.
For growth effects to tree seedlings in
natural forest stands, a consensus was
reached that a range of 10 to 15 (7 to 13)
ppm-hours would be protective. For
growth effects to tree seedlings and
saplings in plantations, the consensus
range was 12 to 16 (9 to 14) ppm-hours.
For visible foliar injury to natural
ecosystems, the consensus range was 8
to 12 (5 to 9) ppm-hours (Heck and
Cowling, 1997).
Taking these consensus statements
into account, the Administrator stated
in the final rule (62 FR 38856) that ‘‘the
report lends important support to the
view that the current secondary
standard is not adequately protective of
vegetation * * * [and] * * *
foreshadows the direction of future
The Staff Paper, in identifying a range
of levels for a 3-month, 12-hour W126
annual form appropriate to protect the
public welfare from adverse impacts to
vegetation from O3 exposures, considers
what information from the array of
vegetation effects evidence and
exposure and risk assessment results
was most useful. In regards to the
vegetation effects evidence, the Staff
Paper finds stronger support than what
was available at the time of the last
review for an increased level of
protection for trees and ecosystems.
Specifically, this expanded body of
support includes: (1) Additional field
based data from free air, gradient and
biomonitoring surveys demonstrating
adverse levels of O3-induced above and/
or below-ground growth reductions on
trees at the seedling, sapling and mature
growth stages and incidence of visible
foliar injury occurring at biomonitoring
sites in the field at ambient levels of
exposure; (2) qualitative support from
free air (e.g., AspenFACE) and gradient
studies on a limited number of tree
species for the continued
appropriateness of using OTC-derived
C–R functions to predict tree seedling
response in the field; (3) studies that
continue to document below-ground
effects on root growth and ‘‘carry-over’’
effects occurring in subsequent years
from O3 exposures; and (4) increased
recognition and understanding of the
structure and function of ecosystems
and the complex linkages through
which O3, and other stressors, acting at
the organism and species level can
influence higher levels within the
ecosystem hierarchy and disrupt
essential ecological attributes critical to
the maintenance of ecosystem goods
and services important to the public
welfare.
Based on the above observations and
on the vegetation effects and the results
of the exposure and impact assessment
summarized above, the Staff Paper
concludes that just meeting the current
standard would still allow adverse
levels of tree seedling biomass loss in
sensitive commercially and ecologically
important tree species in many regions
of the country. Seedling risk assessment
results showed that some tree seedling
species are extremely sensitive (e.g.,
cottonwood, black cherry and aspen),
with annual biomass losses occurring in
the field of the same or greater
magnitude that that of annual crops.
Such information from the tree seedling
risk assessment suggests that air quality
levels would need to be substantially
reduced to protect sensitive tree
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scientific research in this area, the
results of which could be important in
future reviews of the O3 secondary
standard’’ (62 FR 38856).
Given the importance the
Administrator put on the consensus
report in the last review, the Staff Paper
considered to what extent new research
provided empirical support for the
ranges of levels identified by the experts
as protective of different types of O3induced effects. On the basis of new
field-based tree seedling growth loss
and foliar injury data, and including
both the above quantitative and
qualitative information regarding O3induced effects on sensitive trees and
forested ecosystems, the Staff Paper
concludes that it is appropriate to
consider a range for a 3-month, 12-hour,
W126 standard that includes the
consensus recommendations for growth
effects in tree seedlings in natural forest
stands.
In considering the newly available
information on O3-related effects on
crops in this review, the Staff Paper
observes the following regarding the
strength of the underlying crop science:
(1) Nothing in the recent literature
points to a change in the relationship
between O3 exposure and crop response
across the range of species and/or
cultivars of commodity crops currently
grown in the U.S. that could be
construed to make less appropriate the
use of commodity crop C–R functions
developed in the NCLAN program; (2)
new field-based studies (e.g., SoyFACE)
provide qualitative support in a few
limited cases for the appropriateness of
using OTC-derived C–R functions to
predict crop response in the field; and
(3) refinements in the exposure, risk and
benefits assessments in this review
reduce some of the uncertainties present
in 1996. On the basis of these
observations, the Staff Paper concludes
that nothing in the newly assessed
information calls into question the
strength of the underlying science upon
which the Administrator based her
proposed decision in the last review to
select a level of a cumulative, seasonal
form associated with protecting 50
percent of crop cases from no more than
10 percent yield loss as providing the
requisite degree of protection for
commodity crops.
The Staff Paper then considered
whether any additional information is
available to inform judgments as to the
adversity of various O3-induced levels
of crop yield loss to the public welfare.
As noted above, the Staff Paper observes
that agricultural systems are heavily
managed, and that in addition to stress
from O3, the annual productivity of
agricultural systems is vulnerable to
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disruption from many other stressors
(e.g., weather, insects, disease), whose
impact in any given year can greatly
outweigh the direct reduction in annual
productivity resulting from elevated O3
exposures. On the other hand, O3 can
also more subtly impact crop and forage
nutritive quality and indirectly
exacerbate the severity of the impact
from other stressors. Though these latter
effects currently cannot be quantified,
they should be considered in judging to
what extent a level of protection
selected to protect commodity crops
should be precautionary.
Based on the above considerations,
the Staff Paper concludes that the level
of protection judged requisite in the last
review to protect the public welfare
from adverse levels of O3-induced
reductions in crop yields, as provided
by a W126 level of 21 ppm-hours,
remains appropriate for consideration as
an upper bound of a range of
appropriate levels.
Thus, the Staff Paper concludes,
based on all the above considerations,
that an appropriate range of 3-month,
12-hour W126 levels is 7 to 21 ppmhours, recognizing that the level
selected is largely a policy judgment as
to the requisite level of protection
needed. In determining the requisite
level of protection for crops and trees,
the Staff Paper recognizes that it is
appropriate to weigh the importance of
the predicted risks of these effects in the
overall context of public welfare
protection, along with a determination
as to the appropriate weight to place on
the associated uncertainties and
limitations of this information.
The CASAC, in its final letter to the
Administrator (Henderson, 2007),
agreed with the Staff Paper
recommendations that the lower bound
of the range within which a seasonal
W126 welfare-based (secondary) O3
standard should be considered is
approximately 7 ppm-hours; however, it
did not agree with Staff’s
recommendation that the upper bound
of the range should be as high as 21
ppm-hours. Rather, CASAC
recommended that the upper bound of
the range considered should be no
higher than 15 ppm-hours, which the
Panel estimates is approximately
equivalent to a seasonal 12-hour SUM06
level of 20 ppm-hours. The lower end of
this range (7 ppm-hours) is the same as
the lower end of the range identified in
the 1997 Consensus Workshop as
protective of tree seedlings in natural
forest stands from growth effects (Heck
and Cowling, 1997).
The Administrator, taking Staff Paper
and CASAC views into account,
proposes a range of levels for a
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cumulative, seasonal secondary
standard as expressed in terms of the
maximum 3 month, 12-hour W126 form,
in the range of 7 to 21 ppm-hours. This
range encompasses the range of levels
recommended by CASAC, and also
includes a higher level as recommended
in the Staff Paper. Given the uncertainty
in determining the risk attributable to
various levels of exposure to O3, the
Administrator believes as a public
welfare policy judgment that this is a
reasonable range to propose.
In taking into account the uncertainty
associated with the above, the
Administrator has also considered an
alternative approach to establishing a
secondary standard(s). This alternative
approach would establish a cumulative,
seasonal standard(s) that would afford
differing degrees of protection for O3related impacts on different types of
vegetation with different intended uses.
The Administrator recognizes that
known O3-sensitive plant species
growing within the U.S experience a
variety of O3-induced effects, including
visible foliar injury, biomass loss and
yield loss, and that the public welfare
significance of each of these effects can
vary significantly, depending on the
nature of the effect, the intended use of
the plant, and/or the type of
environment or location in which the
plant grows. Any given O3-related effect
on vegetation (e.g., biomass loss, or
foliar injury) may be judged to have a
different degree of impact on public
welfare depending, for example, on
whether that effect occurs in a Class I
area, commercial cropland, or a city
park. This variation in the significance
of O3-related vegetation effects from a
public welfare perspective across type
of effect, intended plant use, and area
grown means that the level of ambient
O3 that is requisite to protect the public
welfare may also vary. The level of
ambient O3 that is requisite in a
federally designated Class I area may be
lower than the level that is requisite in
a cropland area. EPA is therefore
considering and soliciting comment on
an alternative approach for the
secondary O3 standard, with the aim of
reasonably reflecting these variations.
Specifically, the Administrator seeks
comment on an alternative approach
that would establish a suite of
secondary standards. The suite of
standards would contain different
ambient levels, with each standard at a
level that is requisite to protect public
welfare for that variation in plant effect,
use, and/or location. For example, a
secondary standard intended to provide
protection to natural systems valued for
their aesthetic beauty and/or important
ecological functions they might serve
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could be set at a lower, more protective
level to provide the requisite degree of
protection against a broad array of O3related effects on important sensitive
species in such areas. In contrast, while
negative impacts on yield production in
sensitive agricultural crops is also an
important public welfare effect, O3related reductions in yield may be
considered less significant or adverse to
the public welfare, depending on the
degree of impact, since the intended use
of such land is to produce optimum
yields and croplands are already heavily
managed to achieve that goal. Thus, a
secondary standard set to provide the
requisite degree of crop protection for
such an area could be set at a higher
level.
The Administrator recognizes that
variation in vegetation type and
location, intended use, and impacts
related to O3 exposure can be diverse,
and believes that it is appropriate to
consider whether it is appropriate and
feasible to establish a suite of standards
that accounts more broadly for such
variation. EPA recognizes that this
approach is unique with regard to
secondary standards and will pose
unique challenges, including how to
classify areas according to intended use.
Some geographic areas have already
been identified for specific uses, such as
Federal Class I areas,65 which are
intended to conserve unimpaired
natural ecosystems and their associated
species for the enjoyment of future
generations. Likewise, the USDA has
classified cultivated areas in the U.S.
into certain categories of intended use
(such as cropland, rangeland,
timberland) that could help inform the
setting of a suite of standards.
EPA is taking comment on all aspects
of this alternative approach, including
whether it is appropriate to set a suite
of secondary standards that varies
depending on use, location, and type of
effect on vegetation. EPA invites
comment on the appropriateness of this
approach, from the scientific, legal, and
policy perspectives, and on other factors
that should be considered in
determining the applicability of any one
level within a suite of standards.
65 The Clean Air Act defines Class I areas as
national parks over 6,000 acres, national wilderness
areas and national memorial parks over 5,000 acres,
and international parks. The National Park Service
was created in 1916 by Congress through the
National Park Service Organic Act in order to
‘‘conserve the scenery and the natural and historic
objects and the wild life therein and to provide for
the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by
such means as will leave them unimpaired for the
enjoyment of future generations.’’
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3. 8-Hour Average Standard
The Administrator is also proposing
to revise the current secondary standard
by making it identical to the proposed
8-hour primary standard, which is
proposed to be within the range of 0.070
to 0.075 ppm. For this option, EPA also
solicits comment on a wider range of 8hour standard levels, including levels
down to 0.060 ppm and up to the
current standard (i.e., effectively 0.084
ppm with the current rounding
convention).
In the last review, the Staff Paper
included an analysis to compare the
degree of overlap between areas that
would be expected not to meet the range
of alternative 8-hour standards being
considered for the primary NAAQS and
those expected not to meet the range of
values (expressed in terms of the
seasonal SUM06 index) of concern for
vegetation. This result suggested that
improvements in national air quality
expected to result from attaining an 8hour primary standard within the
recommended range of levels would
also be expected to reduce levels of
concern for vegetation in those same
areas. In the 1997 final rule, the
decision was made, on the basis of both
science and policy considerations, to
make the secondary identical to the
primary standard. It acknowledged,
however, that uncertainties remained
‘‘as to the extent to which air quality
improvements designed to reduce 8hour average O3 concentrations
averaged over a 3-year period would
reduce O3 exposures measured by a
seasonal SUM06 index’’ (62 FR 38876).
On the basis of that history, the
current Staff Paper analyzed the degree
of overlap expected between alternative
8-hour and cumulative seasonal
secondary standards (as discussed above
in section IV.C.1) using recent air
quality. Based on the results, the Staff
Paper concluded that the degree to
which the current 8-hour standard form
and level would overlap with areas of
concern for vegetation expressed in
terms of the 12-hour W126 standard is
inconsistent from year to year and
would depend greatly on the level of the
12-hour W126 and 8-hour standards
selected and the distribution of hourly
O3 concentrations within the annual
and/or 3-year average period.
Thus, though the Staff Paper
recognized again that meeting the
current or alternative levels of the 8hour average standard could result in air
quality improvements that would
potentially benefit vegetation in some
areas, it urges caution be used in
evaluating the likely vegetation impacts
associated with a given level of air
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quality expressed in terms of the 8-hour
average form in the absence of parallel
W126 information. This caution is due
to the concern that the analysis in the
Staff Paper may not be an accurate
reflection of the true situation in nonmonitored, rural counties due to the
lack of more complete monitor coverage
in many rural areas. Further, of the
counties that did not show overlap
between the two standard forms, most
were located in rural/remote high
elevation areas which have O3 air
quality patterns that are typically
different from those associated with
urban and near urban sites at lower
elevations. Because the majority of such
areas are currently not monitored, it is
believed there are likely to be additional
areas that have similar air quality
distributions that would lead to the
same disconnect between forms. Thus,
the Staff Paper concluded that it
remains problematic to determine the
appropriate level of protection for
vegetation using an 8-hour average form.
The CASAC recognized that an
important difference between the effects
of acute exposures to O3 on human
health and the effects of O3 exposures
on welfare is that vegetation effects are
more dependent on the cumulative
exposure to, and uptake of, O3 over the
course of the entire growing season
(Henderson, 2006c). The CASAC O3
Panel members were unanimous in
concluding the protection of natural
terrestrial ecosystems and managed
agricultural crops requires a secondary
O3 standard that is substantially
different from the primary O3 standard
in averaging time, level, and form
(Henderson, 2007).
A number of public commenters also
presented views for the Administrator’s
consideration regarding the adequacy of
the current standard and whether or not
revisions to that standard were
warranted. These commenters did not
support adopting an alternative,
cumulative form for the secondary
standard. These commenters stated that
‘‘though directionally a cumulative form
of the standard may better match the
underlying data,’’ they believed further
work is needed to determine whether a
cumulative exposure index for the form
of the secondary standard is necessary.
These commenters identified a number
of key concerns regarding the available
evidence that, in their view, make it
inappropriate to revise the secondary
standard at this time. In particular they
assert that (1) The key uncertainties,
cited by the Administrator in the 1997
review as reasons for deciding it was not
appropriate to move forward with a
seasonal secondary, have not been
materially reduced in the current
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review; and (2) the exposure assessment
is inaccurate and too uncertain due to
the use of low estimates of PRB, an
arbitrary rollback method that is
uninformed by atmospheric chemistry
from photochemical models, and the
use of the CMAQ model in the west,
whose biases and uncertainties are
insufficiently characterized and
evaluated.
In considering the appropriateness of
proposing a revised secondary standard
that would be identical to the proposed
primary standard, the Administrator
took into account the approach used by
the Agency in the last review, the
conclusions of the Staff Paper, CASAC
advice, and the views of public
commenters. The Administrator first
considered the Staff Paper analysis of
the projected degree of overlap between
counties with air quality expected to
meet various alternative levels of an 8hour standard and alternative levels of
a W126 standard based on monitored air
quality data. This analysis showed
significant overlap within the proposed
range of the primary 8-hour form and
selected levels of the W126 standard
form being considered, with the degree
of overlap between these two forms
depending greatly on the levels selected
and the distribution of hourly O3
concentrations within the annual and/or
3-year average period. On this basis, the
Administrator recognizes that a
secondary standard set identical to the
proposed primary standard would
provide a significant degree of
additional protection for vegetation as
compared to that provided by the
current secondary standard. The
Administrator also recognizes that lack
of rural monitoring data makes
uncertain the degree to which the
proposed 8-hour or W126 alternatives
would be protective, and that there
would be the potential for not providing
the appropriate degree of protection for
vegetation in areas with air quality
distributions that result in a high
cumulative, seasonal exposure but do
not result in high 8-hour average
exposures. While this potential for
under-protection is clear, the number
and size of areas at issue and the degree
of risk is hard to determine. However,
such a standard would also tend to
avoid the potential for providing more
protection than is necessary, a risk that
would arise from moving to a new form
for the secondary standard despite
significant uncertainty in determining
the degree of risk for any exposure level
and the appropriate level of protection,
as well as uncertainty in predicting
exposure and risk patterns.
The Administrator also considered
the views and recommendations of
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CASAC, and agrees that a cumulative,
seasonal standard is the most
biologically relevant way to relate
exposure to plant growth response.
However, as reflected in the public
comments, the Administrator also
recognizes that there remain significant
uncertainties in determining or
quantifying the degree of risk
attributable to varying levels of O3
exposure, the degree of protection that
any specific cumulative, seasonal
standard would produce, and the
associated potential for error in
determining the standard that will
provide a requisite degree of
protection—i.e. sufficient but not more
than what is necessary. Given this
uncertainty, the Administrator also
believes it is appropriate to consider the
degree of protection that would be
afforded by a secondary standard that is
identical to the proposed primary
standard. Based on his consideration of
the full range of views as described
above, the Administrator proposes as a
second option to revise the secondary
standard to be identical in every way to
the proposed primary standard.
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F. Proposed Decision on the Secondary
Standard
The Administrator proposes to
replace the current secondary standard
with one of two options. One option is
a new cumulative, seasonal standard
expressed as an index of the annual sum
of weighted hourly concentrations
(using the W126 form), set at a level in
the range of 7 to 21 ppm-hours. The
index would be cumulated over the 12hour daylight period (8 a.m. to 8 p.m.)
during the consecutive 3-month period
within the O3 season with the maximum
index value. The other option is to
revise the current secondary standard by
making it identical to the proposed 8hour primary standard, which is
proposed to be within the range of 0.070
to 0.075 ppm. For this option, EPA also
solicits comment on a wider range of 8hour standard levels, including levels
down to 0.060 ppm and up to the
current standard (i.e., effectively 0.084
ppm with the current rounding
convention. The Administrator is also
soliciting comment on an alternative
approach for a setting cumulative,
seasonal standard(s) that would afford
differing degrees of protection for O3related impacts on different types of
vegetation with different intended uses.
V. Creation of Appendix P—
Interpretation of the NAAQS for Ozone
The EPA is proposing to create
Appendix P to 40 CFR part 50 to reflect
the proposed revisions to the primary
and secondary standards discussed
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above. This Appendix would explain
the computations necessary for
determining when the proposed primary
and secondary standards are met. More
specifically, Appendix P addresses data
completeness requirements, data
reporting, handling, and rounding
conventions, and example calculations.
Although EPA is proposing two
alternative secondary standards, the
proposed Appendix has been written to
address a seasonal secondary standard
expressed in the W126 form. If EPA
adopts a secondary standard identical to
the primary standard, Appendix P will
be modified accordingly. The proposed
Appendix also reflects the final rule
promulgated on March 22, 2007 for the
treatment of data influenced by
exceptional events (72 FR 13560).
Key elements of the proposed revisions
to Appendix P are outlined below.
A. Data Completeness
The data completeness requirements
in Appendix P proposed here for the
proposed 8-hr primary standard
secondary standards are the same as
those in Appendix I to 40 CFR part 50
required for the current standard. To
satisfy the date completeness
requirement, Appendix P would require
90% data completeness, on average, for
the 3-year period at a monitoring site,
with no single year within the period
having less than 75% data
completeness. This data completeness
requirement would have to be satisfied
in order to determine that the
standard(s) have been met at a
monitoring site. A site could be found
not to have met the standard(s) with less
than complete data. EPA concluded in
adopting these same data completeness
requirements in Appendix I in 1997 that
these proposed requirements are
reasonable based on its earlier analysis
of available air quality data that showed
that 90% of all monitoring sites that are
operated on a continuous basis
routinely meet this objective. The EPA
is seeking comment, however, on
whether meteorological data would
provide an objective basis for
determining, on a day for which there
is missing data, that the meteorological
conditions were not conducive to high
O3 concentrations, and therefore, that
the day could be assumed to have an O3
concentration less than 0.070 to 0.075
ppm.
We are proposing separate data
completeness requirements for the
proposed seasonal secondary standard
expressed in the W126 form. For such
a standard, Appendix P would require
a site to have 75% data completeness in
a given month. Appendix P would also
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provide a mechanism for adjusting for
missing data. Because this alternative is
a seasonal cumulative index,
representing a distribution of O3 values
under a range of meteorological
conditions, rather than a peak statistic,
the EPA is proposing a missing data
procedure that would require the
monthly total index to be adjusted for
incomplete data by multiplying the
unadjusted W126 value by the ratio of
the number of possible daylight hours
(8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.) to the number
of hours with valid ambient hourly
concentrations. This adjustment is
analogous to calculating an estimated
number of exceedances contained
within part 50 Appendix I for the one
hour O3 standard.
B. Data Handling and Rounding
Conventions
Almost all State agencies now report
hourly O3 concentrations to three
decimal places, in ppm, since the
typical incremental sensitivity of
currently used O3 monitors is 0.001
ppm. Consistent with the current
approach for computing 8-hr averages,
in calculating 8-hr average O3
concentrations from such hourly data,
any calculated digits past the third
decimal place would be truncated to
preserve the number of significant digits
in the reported data. In calculating 3year averages of the fourth highest
maximum 8-hr average concentrations,
EPA is proposing to require the result to
be reported to the third decimal place
with digits to the right of the third
decimal place truncated to preserve the
number of significant digits in the
reported data, as prescribed by the
current standard. Analyses discussed in
the Staff Paper demonstrated that taking
into account the precision and bias in 1hour O3 measurements, the 8-hour
design value had an uncertainty of
approximately 0.001 ppm. Thus, EPA
considers any value less than 0.001 ppm
to be highly uncertain and, therefore,
proposes truncating both the individual
8-hour averages used to determine the
annual fourth maximum as well as the
3-year average of the fourth maxima to
the third decimal place. Nevertheless,
EPA solicits comment on the
appropriateness of rounding to the third
decimal place as well as the policy
reasons behind either truncating or
rounding the 3-year average to the third
decimal place (with 0.0005 and greater
rounding up). EPA is also seeking
comment on the scientific validity of
truncating the three year average as
opposed to rounding it as well as the
policy reasons behind either truncating
or rounding the average to the third
decimal place.
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To determine whether the proposed
standard is met, the calculated value of
the fourth highest maximum 8-hour
average concentrations, averaged over
three years, would be compared to the
level of the standard. As discussed in
section II, the EPA is proposing to issue
an 8-hr standard extending to three
decimal places, based on the staff’s
analysis and conclusions discussed in
the Staff paper that expressing the
proposed standard to the third decimal
place is consistent with the precision
requirements of the current O3
monitoring technology. Given that both
the proposed standard and the
calculated value of the 3-year average of
the fourth highest maximum 8-hr O3
concentration are expressed to three
decimal places, the two values can be
compared directly. This is different than
the approach for determining
compliance with the current standard
O3 standard. In comparing the
calculated 3-year average (which is
expressed to three decimal places) to the
current standard O3 standard (which is
expressed to only two decimal places),
Appendix I requires the calculated 3year average to be rounded to two
decimal places. This additional step
would not be necessary for the proposed
standard given that the standard and the
3-year average are each expressed to
three decimal places.
For the proposed seasonal secondary
standard, the annual maximum 3-month
W126 value computed on a calendar
year basis using the three highest,
consecutive monthly W126 values
would be used as the summary statistic.
The resulting value would then be
compared to the level of the secondary
O3 standard. The Agency is also
interested in receiving comments
regarding a 3-year average form
summary statistic.
VI. Ambient Monitoring Related to
Proposed Revised O3 Standards
The EPA is not proposing any specific
changes to existing requirements for
monitoring of O3 in the ambient air.
However, we invite comment on a
number of issues which naturally arise
in connection with the proposed
revision of the O3 NAAQS. The EPA
may propose changes to some of the
existing requirements at a later date.
Current requirements regarding EPAapproved measurement methods for
ambient O3 are stated in 40 CFR part 50
Appendix D, Measurement Principle
and Calibration Procedure for the
Measurement of Ozone in the
Atmosphere, and in 40 CFR part 53,
Ambient Air Monitoring Reference and
Equivalent Methods. The EPA does not
intend to propose any changes to these
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requirements, because we believe these
requirements would continue to be
appropriate to support implementation
of a revised O3 NAAQS.
Presently, States (including the
District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and
the Virgin Islands, and including local
agencies when so delegated by the State)
are required to operate minimum
numbers of EPA-approved O3 monitors
based on the population of each of their
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA)
and the most recently measured O3
levels in each area. Each State (or in
some cases portions of a State) also has
a required O3 monitoring season based
on historical experience on when O3
levels are high enough to be of
regulatory or public health concern.
These requirements are contained in 40
CFR part 58 Appendix D, Network
Design Criteria for Ambient Air Quality
Monitoring. See section 4.1, especially
Tables D–2 and D–3. These
requirements were last revised on
October 17, 2006 as part of a
comprehensive review of ambient
monitoring requirements for all criteria
pollutants. (71 FR 61236) Certain
deviations including minimum
monitoring requirements and/or
monitoring season requirements may be
approved by the EPA Regional
Administrator on a case-by-case basis.
Required O3 monitoring seasons range
from four to 12 months. The minimum
number of monitors in an MSA ranges
from zero (for an area with population
under 350,000 and no recent history of
an O3 design value greater than 85
percent of the NAAQS) to four (for an
area with population greater than 10
million and an O3 design value greater
than 85 percent of the NAAQS). Because
these requirements apply at the MSA
level, large urban areas consisting of
multiple MSAs can require more than
four monitors. For example, the New
York-Newark-Bristol NY-NJ-CT-PA
combined statistical area requires about
14 monitors. In total, about 400
monitors are required in MSAs, but
about 1100 are actually operating in
MSAs because most States operate more
than the minimum required number of
monitors.
There are no EPA requirements for O3
monitoring in less populated areas
outside of MSA boundaries (e.g.,
Metropolitan Statistical Areas) or in
rural areas. However, there are about
250 O3 monitors in counties that are not
part of MSAs. Some required State
monitors are placed downwind of the
urban center of the MSA of interest in
locations that are in some cases in a
county outside the MSA itself; some
States also operate a few rural monitors
for research purposes. The EPA operates
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a network of about 56 O3 monitors as
part of its Clean Air Status and Trends
Network (CASTNET). The National Park
Service (NPS) operates about 27
monitors at other CASTNET sites. The
NPS also has O3 monitoring stations in
parks that are not part of the CASTNET
dry deposition monitoring effort
including multiple O3 stations in Great
Smoky Mountains, Sequoia, Yosemite,
and Joshua Tree National Parks.
Required quality assurance
procedures for O3 monitoring are given
in 40 CFR Part 58 Appendix A, Quality
Assurance Requirements for State and
local air monitoring stations (SLAMS),
special purpose monitors (SPM), and
prevention of significant deterioration
(PSD) Air Monitoring. The EPA does not
intend to propose any changes to these
quality assurance requirements, because
we believe that the current
measurement uncertainty goals and
related procedures for assessing
precision and bias as documented in
paragraph 2.3.1.2 of Appendix A are
appropriate to support the
implementation of a revised O3 NAAQS.
States are required to report O3 data
quarterly to EPA’s Air Quality System
(AQS), and most also voluntarily report
their pre-validated O3 data on an hourly
basis to EPA’s real time AirNow data
system, where the data are used to
forecast O3 concentrations and to
provide public advisories. The National
Park Service and many other
organizations also report their O3 data to
AQS and/or AirNow. The locations of
currently operating O3 monitors which
report data to EPA’s Air Quality System
are available through the EPA AirData
Web site https://www.epa.gov/air/data/
index.html.
Data from O3 monitors at CASTNET
stations are currently kept in a separate
national data base.66
The EPA invites comments on O3
monitoring issues (other than O3
monitoring methods and quality
assurance requirements), including the
following:
(1) Ozone monitoring network
requirements in urban areas. Table D–2
of 40 CFR Part 58 Appendix D is based
on the percentage of the O3 NAAQS,
with a break point at 85 percent of the
NAAQS. Therefore, a revision of the
NAAQS would automatically increase
the required number of O3 monitors. For
example, assuming a final NAAQS of
66 At present, not all ozone monitors at CASTNET
sites are operated in full compliance with the
quality assurance requirements of 40 CFR Part 58
Appendix D, as they have not been primarily
intended for regulatory use. The EPA is working
towards such compliance in the near future and
towards making CASTNET ozone data available
through AQS.
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0.070 ppm for purposes of illustration
only, about 70 MSAs with current O3
design values in the range of about
0.060 ppm (about 85 percent of the
current NAAQS) to 0.070 ppm (about 85
percent of 0.070 ppm) would be
affected, with most changing from no
required monitors to one, or from one
required monitor to two. Because most
of these areas already are operating at
least as many monitors as the possible
new requirement, the number of
monitors which would need to be
initiated (or moved from a location of
excess monitors) would be only about
five monitors. About 100 MSAs with
populations less than 350,000 presently
are without any O3 monitors, and hence
they do not have an O3 design value for
use with Table D–2. If for the purpose
of applying Table D–2, these areas are
treated as if they have O3 concentrations
below 85 percent of the revised NAAQS,
then a NAAQS revision would not
automatically result in a requirement for
O3 monitoring in these MSAs.67 EPA
invites comments on the
appropriateness of the existing
minimum monitoring requirements for
purposes of implementing the proposed
revised NAAQS, including the
automatic changes to minimum
monitoring requirements that would be
triggered by a NAAQS revision.
(2) Ozone monitoring seasons. As
mentioned, the currently required O3
monitoring seasons range from four to
12 months of the year. In some cases, O3
monitoring may start a couple of weeks
before and may end a couple of weeks
after the required season. With a lower
O3 NAAQS, the issue arises of whether
in some areas the required O3
monitoring season should be made
longer. The EPA notes that under the
existing regulations, the Regional
Administrator may approve Staterequested deviations from the
established O3 monitoring season but
EPA may not increase the length of the
season for an area at EPA’s own
initiative other than by notice and
comment rulemaking.
(3) Monitoring to support
implementation of a secondary O3
NAAQS. It is fair to say that the existing
O3 monitoring requirements and current
State monitoring practices are primarily
oriented towards protecting against
health effects in people, i.e., towards
implementation of the primary NAAQS.
This accounts for the focus on urban
67 EPA might instead treat one or more of these
counties as having a design value based on a
monitor in a nearby monitored county, in which
case ozone monitoring might become required in
certain currently unmonitored MSAs and the
number of new required monitors would increase
in the illustrative NAAQS example stated above.
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areas, which can combine large
populations, large emissions of O3forming precursors, and O3
concentrations of concern. The purpose
of the secondary NAAQS is to protect
against vegetation damage and other
welfare effects, which can occur in both
urban and rural areas. States have
largely been given discretion on
whether to add additional monitors
aimed specifically at achieving the
objectives of the previous and current
secondary NAAQS. In urban areas, EPA
in general believes that an O3
monitoring network (and monitoring
season) appropriate to support
implementation of the primary NAAQS
will also be appropriate for
implementing the secondary NAAQS.
However, rural areas are presently only
sparsely monitored for O3 so violations
of the secondary NAAQS in areas with
sensitive vegetation may occur
undetected, as a result of transport from
urban areas with high precursor
emissions and/or O3 concentrations or
from formation of additional O3 from
precursors emitted from sources outside
urban areas. It is conceivable that rural
violations of a secondary NAAQS could
occur in areas with sensitive vegetation
even though urban monitoring networks
are showing compliance with the
primary NAAQS, whether the forms and
levels of the two standards are the same
or different. The EPA invites comment
on the likelihood of this occurring
under the possible combinations of
primary and secondary standards
proposed in this notice, and on whether,
where, and how EPA should require
monitoring in rural areas specifically
aimed at implementation of the
secondary NAAQS (and/or promote
more voluntary monitoring or conduct
monitoring itself in rural areas).
VII. Statutory and Executive Order
Reviews
A. Executive Order 12866: Regulatory
Planning and Review
Under section 3(f)(1) of Executive
Order (EO) 12866 (58 FR 51735, October
4, 1993), the O3 NAAQS action is an
‘‘economically significant regulatory
action’’ because it is likely to have an
annual effect on the economy of $100
million or more. Accordingly, EPA
prepared this regulatory impact analysis
(RIA) of the potential costs and benefits
associated with this action. The RIA
estimates the costs and monetized
human health and welfare benefits of
attaining three alternative O3 NAAQS
nationwide. Specifically, the RIA
examines the alternatives of 0.075 ppm,
0.070 ppm, and 0.065 ppm. The RIA
contains illustrative analyses that
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consider a limited number of emissions
control scenarios that States and
Regional Planning Organizations might
implement to achieve these alternative
O3 NAAQS. However, the Clean Air Act
(CAA) and judicial decisions make clear
that the economic and technical
feasibility of attaining ambient
standards are not to be considered in
setting or revising NAAQS, although
such factors may be considered in the
development of State plans to
implement the standards. Accordingly,
although an RIA has been prepared, the
results of the RIA have not been
considered in issuing this final rule.
B. Paperwork Reduction Act
This action does not impose an
information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction
Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq. There are no
information collection requirements
directly associated with the
establishment of a NAAQS under
section 109 of the CAA.
Burden means the total time, effort, or
financial resources expended by persons
to generate, maintain, retain, or disclose
or provide information to or for a
Federal agency. This includes the time
needed to review instructions; develop,
acquire, install, and utilize technology
and systems for the purposes of
collecting, validating, and verifying
information, processing and
maintaining information, and disclosing
and providing information; adjust the
existing ways to comply with any
previously applicable instructions and
requirements; train personnel to be able
to respond to a collection of
information; search data sources;
complete and review the collection of
information; and transmit or otherwise
disclose the information.
An agency may not conduct or
sponsor, and a person is not required to
respond to a collection of information
unless it displays a currently valid OMB
control number. The OMB control
numbers for EPA’s regulations in 40
CFR are listed in 40 CFR part 9.
C. Regulatory Flexibility Act
The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA)
generally requires an agency to prepare
a regulatory flexibility analysis of any
rule subject to notice and comment
rulemaking requirements under the
Administrative Procedure Act or any
other statute unless the agency certifies
that the rule will not have a significant
economic impact on a substantial
number of small entities. Small entities
include small businesses, small
organizations, and small governmental
jurisdictions.
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For purposes of assessing the impacts
of today’s rule on small entities, small
entity is defined as: (1) A small business
that is a small industrial entity as
defined by the Small Business
Administration’s (SBA) regulations at 13
CFR 121.201; (2) a small governmental
jurisdiction that is a government of a
city, county, town, school district or
special district with a population of less
than 50,000; and (3) a small
organization that is any not-for-profit
enterprise which is independently
owned and operated and is not
dominant in its field.
After considering the economic
impacts of today’s proposed rule on
small entities, I certify that this action
will not have a significant economic
impact on a substantial number of small
entities. This proposed rule will not
impose any requirements on small
entities. Rather, this rule establishes
national standards for allowable
concentrations of O3 in ambient air as
required by section 109 of the CAA. See
also American Trucking Associations v.
EPA. 175 F. 3d at 1044–45 (NAAQS do
not have significant impacts upon small
entities because NAAQS themselves
impose no regulations upon small
entities). We continue to be interested in
the potential impacts of the proposed
rule on small entities and welcome
comments on issues related to such
impacts.
D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
Title II of the Unfunded Mandates
Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA), Public
Law 104–4, establishes requirements for
Federal agencies to assess the effects of
their regulatory actions on State, local,
and Tribal governments and the private
sector. Under section 202 of the UMRA,
EPA generally must prepare a written
statement, including a cost-benefit
analysis, for proposed and final rules
with ‘‘Federal mandates’’ that may
result in expenditures to State, local,
and Tribal governments, in the
aggregate, or to the private sector, of
$100 million or more in any 1 year.
Before promulgating an EPA rule for
which a written statement is needed,
section 205 of the UMRA generally
requires EPA to identify and consider a
reasonable number of regulatory
alternatives and to adopt the least
costly, most cost-effective or least
burdensome alternative that achieves
the objectives of the rule. The
provisions of section 205 do not apply
when they are inconsistent with
applicable law. Moreover, section 205
allows EPA to adopt an alternative other
than the least costly, most cost-effective
or least burdensome alternative if the
Administrator publishes with the final
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rule an explanation why that alternative
was not adopted. Before EPA establishes
any regulatory requirements that may
significantly or uniquely affect small
governments, including Tribal
governments, it must have developed
under section 203 of the UMRA a small
government agency plan. The plan must
provide for notifying potentially
affected small governments, enabling
officials of affected small governments
to have meaningful and timely input in
the development of EPA regulatory
proposals with significant Federal
intergovernmental mandates, and
informing, educating, and advising
small governments on compliance with
the regulatory requirements.
Today’s rule contains no Federal
mandates (under the regulatory
provisions of Title II of the UMRA) for
State, local, or Tribal governments or
the private sector. The rule imposes no
new expenditure or enforceable duty on
any State, local or Tribal governments or
the private sector, and EPA has
determined that this rule contains no
regulatory requirements that might
significantly or uniquely affect small
governments. Furthermore, as indicated
previously, in setting a NAAQS EPA
cannot consider the economic or
technological feasibility of attaining
ambient air quality standards, although
such factors may be considered to a
degree in the development of State
plans to implement the standards. See
also American Trucking Associations v.
EPA, 175 F. 3d at 1043 (noting that
because EPA is precluded from
considering costs of implementation in
establishing NAAQS, preparation of a
Regulatory Impact Analysis pursuant to
the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act
would not furnish any information
which the court could consider in
reviewing the NAAQS). Accordingly,
EPA has determined that the provisions
of sections 202, 203, and 205 of the
UMRA do not apply to this proposed
decision. The EPA acknowledges,
however, that any corresponding
revisions to associated SIP requirements
and air quality surveillance
requirements, 40 CFR part 51 and 40
CFR part 58, respectively, might result
in such effects. Accordingly, EPA will
address, as appropriate, unfunded
mandates if and when it proposes any
revisions to 40 CFR parts 51 or 58.
E. Executive Order 13132: Federalism
Executive Order 13132, entitled
‘‘Federalism’’ (64 FR 43255, August 10,
1999), requires EPA to develop an
accountable process to ensure
‘‘meaningful and timely input by State
and local officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have federalism
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implications.’’ ‘‘Policies that have
federalism implications’’ is defined in
the Executive Order to include
regulations that have ‘‘substantial direct
effects on the States, on the relationship
between the national government and
the States, or on the distribution of
power and responsibilities among the
various levels of government.’’
This proposed rule does not have
federalism implications. It will not have
substantial direct effects on the States,
on the relationship between the national
government and the States, or on the
distribution of power and
responsibilities among the various
levels of government, as specified in
Executive Order 13132. The rule does
not alter the relationship between the
Federal government and the States
regarding the establishment and
implementation of air quality
improvement programs as codified in
the CAA. Under section 109 of the CAA,
EPA is mandated to establish NAAQS;
however, CAA section 116 preserves the
rights of States to establish more
stringent requirements if deemed
necessary by a State. Furthermore, this
rule does not impact CAA section 107
which establishes that the States have
primary responsibility for
implementation of the NAAQS. Finally,
as noted in section E (above) on UMRA,
this rule does not impose significant
costs on State, local, or Tribal
governments or the private sector. Thus,
Executive Order 13132 does not apply
to this rule.
However, as also noted in section E
(above) on UMRA, EPA recognizes that
States will have a substantial interest in
this rule and any corresponding
revisions to associated SIP requirements
and air quality surveillance
requirements, 40 CFR part 51 and 40
CFR part 58, respectively. Therefore, in
the spirit of Executive Order 13132, and
consistent with EPA policy to promote
communications between EPA and State
and local governments, EPA specifically
solicits comment on this proposed rule
from State and local officials.
F. Executive Order 13175: Consultation
and Coordination With Indian Tribal
Governments
Executive Order 13175, entitled
‘‘Consultation and Coordination with
Indian Tribal Governments’’ (65 FR
67249, November 9, 2000), requires EPA
to develop an accountable process to
ensure ‘‘meaningful and timely input by
tribal officials in the development of
regulatory policies that have tribal
implications.’’ This rule concerns the
establishment of O3 NAAQS. The Tribal
Authority Rule gives Tribes the
opportunity to develop and implement
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CAA programs such as the O3 NAAQS,
but it leaves to the discretion of the
Tribe whether to develop these
programs and which programs, or
appropriate elements of a program, they
will adopt.
This proposed rule does not have
Tribal implications, as specified in
Executive Order 13175. It does not have
a substantial direct effect on one or
more Indian Tribes, since Tribes are not
obligated to adopt or implement any
NAAQS. Thus, Executive Order 13175
does not apply to this rule.
Although Executive Order 13175 does
not apply to this rule, EPA contacted
tribal environmental professionals
during the development of this rule. The
EPA staff participated in the regularly
scheduled Tribal Air call sponsored by
the National Tribal Air Association
during the spring of 2007 as this
proposal was under development. EPA
specifically solicits additional comment
on this proposed rule from Tribal
officials.
G. Executive Order 13045: Protection of
Children From Environmental Health &
Safety Risks
Executive Order 13045, ‘‘Protection of
Children from Environmental Health
Risks and Safety Risks’’ (62 FR 19885,
April 23, 1997) applies to any rule that:
(1) Is determined to be ‘‘economically
significant’’ as defined under Executive
Order 12866, and (2) concerns an
environmental health or safety risk that
EPA has reason to believe may have a
disproportionate effect on children. If
the regulatory action meets both criteria,
the Agency must evaluate the
environmental health or safety effects of
the planned rule on children, and
explain why the planned regulation is
preferable to other potentially effective
and reasonably feasible alternatives
considered by the Agency.
This proposed rule is subject to
Executive Order 13045 because it is an
economically significant regulatory
action as defined by Executive Order
12866, and we believe that the
environmental health risk addressed by
this action may have a disproportionate
effect on children. The proposed rule
will establish uniform national ambient
air quality standards for O3; these
standards are designed to protect public
health with an adequate margin of
safety, as required by CAA section 109.
However, the protection offered by these
standards may be especially important
for children because children, especially
children with asthma, along with other
sensitive population subgroups such as
all people with lung disease and people
active outdoors, are potentially
susceptible to health effects resulting
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from O3 exposure. Because children are
considered a potentially susceptible
population, we have carefully evaluated
the environmental health effects of
exposure to O3 pollution among
children. These effects and the size of
the population affected are summarized
in section 8.7 of the Criteria Document
and section 3.6 of the Staff Paper, and
the results of our evaluation of the
effects of O3 pollution on children are
discussed in sections II.A–C of this
preamble.
H. Executive Order 13211: Actions That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution or Use
This proposed rule is not a
‘‘significant energy action’’ as defined in
Executive Order 13211, ‘‘Actions
Concerning Regulations That
Significantly Affect Energy Supply,
Distribution, or Use’’ (66 FR 28355 (May
22, 2001)) because in the Agency’s
judgment it is not likely to have a
significant adverse effect on the supply,
distribution, or use of energy. The
purpose of this rule is to establish
revised NAAQS for O3. The rule does
not prescribe specific pollution control
strategies by which these ambient
standards will be met. Such strategies
will be developed by States on a caseby-case basis, and EPA cannot predict
whether the control options selected by
States will include regulations on
energy suppliers, distributors, or users.
Thus, EPA concludes that this rule is
not likely to have any adverse energy
effects and does not constitute a
significant energy action as defined in
Executive Order 13211.
I. National Technology Transfer and
Advancement Act
Section 12(d) of the National
Technology Transfer and Advancement
Act of 1995 (NTTAA), Public Law No.
104–113, § 12(d) (15 U.S.C. 272 note)
directs EPA to use voluntary consensus
standards in its regulatory activities
unless to do so would be inconsistent
with applicable law or otherwise
impractical. Voluntary consensus
standards are technical standards (e.g.,
materials specifications, test methods,
sampling procedures, and business
practices) that are developed or adopted
by voluntary consensus standards
bodies. The NTTAA directs EPA to
provide Congress, through OMB,
explanations when the Agency decides
not to use available and applicable
voluntary consensus standards.
This proposed rulemaking does not
involve technical standards. Therefore,
EPA is not considering the use of any
voluntary consensus standards.
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J. Executive Order 12898: Federal
Actions To Address Environmental
Justice in Minority Populations and
Low-Income Populations
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629
(Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes federal
executive policy on environmental
justice. Its main provision directs
federal agencies, to the greatest extent
practicable and permitted by law, to
make environmental justice part of their
mission by identifying and addressing,
as appropriate, disproportionately high
and adverse human health or
environmental effects of their programs,
policies, and activities on minority
populations and low-income
populations in the United States.
EPA has determined that this
proposed rule will not have
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on minority or low-income populations
because it increases the level of
environmental protection for all affected
populations without having any
disproportionately high and adverse
human health or environmental effects
on any population, including any
minority or low-income population. The
proposed rule will establish uniform
national standards for O3 air pollution.
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Thurston, G. D.; Ito, K.; Kinney, P. L.;
Lippmann, M. (1992) A multi-year study
of air pollution and respiratory hospital
admissions in three New York State
metropolitan areas: results for 1988 and
1989 summers. J. Exposure Anal.
Environ. Epidemiol. 2: 429–450.
Tingey, D. T.; Standley, C.; Field, R. W.
(1976) Stress ethylene evolution: a
measure of ozone effects on plants.
Atmos. Environ. 10: 969–974.
Tingey, D. T.; Taylor, G. E., Jr. (1982)
Variation in plant response to ozone: a
conceptual model of physiological
events. In: Unsworth, M. H.; Ormrod, D.
P., eds. Effects of gaseous air pollution in
agriculture and horticulture. London,
United Kingdom: Butterworth Scientific;
pp. 113–138.
Tingey, D. T.; Laurence, J. A.; Weber, J. A.;
Greene, J.; Hogsett, W. E.; Brown, S.; Lee,
E. H. (2001) Elevated CO2 and
temperature alter the response of Pinus
ponderosa to ozone: A simulation
analysis. Ecol. Appl. 11: 1412–1424.
Tingey, D. T.; Hogsett, W. E.; Lee, E. H.;
Laurence, J. A. (2004) Stricter ozone
ambient air quality standard has
beneficial effect on Ponderosa pine in
California. Environ. Manage. 34: 397–
405.
Touloumi, G.; Katsouyanni, K.; Zmirou, D.;
Schwartz, J.; Spix, C.; Ponce de Leon, A.;
Tobias, A.; Quennel, P.; Rabczenko, D.;
Bacharova, L.; Bisanti, L.; Vonk, J. M.;
Ponka, A. (1997) Short-term effects of
ambient oxidant exposure on mortality:
a combined analysis within the APHEA
project. Am. J. Epidemiol. 146: 177–185.
Ultman, J. S.; Ben-Jebria, A.; Arnold, S. F.
(2004) Uptake distribution of ozone in
human lungs: intersubject variability in
physiologic response. Boston, MA:
Health Effects Institute.
Vagaggini, B.; Taccola, M.; Clanchetti, S.;
Carnevali, S.; Bartoli, M. L.; Bacci, E.;
Dente, F. L.; Di Franco, A.; Giannini, D.;
Paggiaro, P. L. (2002) Ozone exposure
increases eosinophilic airway response
induced by previous allergen challenge.
Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 166: 1073–
1077.
Vedal, S.; Brauer, M.; White, R.; Petkau, J.
(2003) Air pollution and daily mortality
in a city with low levels of pollution.
Environ. Health Perspect. 111: 45–51.
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Weber, J. A.; Clark, C. S.; Hogsett, W. E.
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Garrett, K.; Cirksena, K.; Cheng, Y.-T.;
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Piazza, T.; Stork, L.; Pladsen, K. (1991b)
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Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee
to the EPA Administrator, dated April 4,
1996. EPA–SAB–CASAC–LTR–96–006.
Young, T. F.; Sanzone, S., eds. (2002) A
framework for assessing and reporting on
ecological condition: an SAB report.
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pdf/epec02009.pdf [9 December, 2003].
Zeger, S. L.; Thomas, D.; Dominici, F.; Samet,
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A. (2000) Exposure measurement error in
time-series studies of air pollution:
concepts and consequences. Environ.
Health Perspect. 108: 419–426.
Zidek, J. V.; White, R.; Le, N. D.; Sun, W.;
Burnett, R. T. (1998) Imputing
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unmeasured explanatory variables in
environmental epidemiology with
application to health impact analysis of
air pollution. Environ. Ecol. Stat. 5: 99–
115.
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 50
Environmental protection, Air
pollution control, Carbon monoxide,
Lead, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Particulate matter, Sulfur oxides.
Dated: June 20, 2007.
Stephen L. Johnson,
Administrator.
For the reasons stated in the
preamble, title 40, chapter I of the code
of Federal regulations is proposed to be
amended as follows:
PART 50—NATIONAL PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY AMBIENT AIR QUALITY
STANDARDS
1. The authority citation for part 50
continues to read as follows:
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
2. Section 50.15 is added to read as
follows:
§ 50.15 National primary and secondary
ambient air quality standards for ozone.
(a) The level of the national 8-hour
primary ambient air quality standard for
O3 is (0.070–0.075) parts per million
(ppm), daily maximum 8-hour average,
measured by a reference method based
on Appendix D to this part and
designated in accordance with part 53 of
this chapter.
(b) The 8-hour primary O3 ambient air
quality standard is met at an ambient air
quality monitoring site when the
average of the annual fourth-highest
daily maximum 8-hour average O3
concentration is less than or equal to
(0.070–0.075) ppm, as determined in
accordance with appendix P to this part.
(c) The level of the national secondary
ambient air quality standard for O3 is a
cumulative index value of (7–21) ppmhours, measured by a reference method
based on Appendix D to this part and
designated in accordance with part 53 of
this chapter.
(d) The secondary O3 ambient air
quality standard is a seasonal standard
expressed as a sum of weighted hourly
concentrations, cumulated over the 12
hour daylight period from 8 a.m. to 8
p.m. local standard time, during the
consecutive 3-month period within the
O3 monitoring season with the
maximum index value. The secondary
O3 standard is met at an ambient air
quality monitoring site when the annual
maximum consecutive 3-month
cumulative index value (W126) is less
than or equal to (7–21) ppm-hours, as
E:\FR\FM\11JYP2.SGM
11JYP2
Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 11, 2007 / Proposed Rules
Year refers to calendar year.
determined in accordance with
appendix P to this part.
3. Appendix P is added to read as
follows:
2. Primary Ambient Air Quality Standard
for Ozone
Appendix P to Part 50—Interpretation
of the Primary and Secondary National
Ambient Air Quality Standards for
Ozone
1. General
(a) This appendix explains the data
handling conventions and computations
necessary for determining whether the
national 8-hour primary and secondary
ambient air quality standards for O3 specified
in § 50.14 are met at an ambient O3 air
quality monitoring site. Ozone is measured in
the ambient air by a Federal reference
method (FRM) based on appendix D of this
part, as applicable, and designated in
accordance with part 53 of this chapter, or by
a Federal equivalent method (FEM)
designated in accordance with part 53 of this
chapter, or by an Approved Regional Method
(ARM) designated in accordance with part 58
of this chapter. Data reporting, data handling,
and computation procedures to be used in
making comparisons between reported O3
concentrations and the level of the O3
standard are specified in the following
sections. Whether to exclude, retain, or make
adjustments to the data affected by
exceptional events, including stratospheric
O3 intrusion and other natural events, is
subject to the requirements under § 50.1,
§ 50.14 and § 51.930.
(b) The terms used in this appendix are
defined as follows:
8-hour average is the rolling average of
hourly O3 concentrations as explained in
section 2 of this appendix.
Annual fourth highest daily maximum
refers to the fourth highest value measured at
a monitoring location during the O3 season
for a particular year.
Daily maximum 8-hour average
concentration refers to the maximum
calculated 8 hour average for a particular day
as explained in section 2 of this appendix.
Design values are the metrics (i.e.,
statistics) that are compared to the NAAQS
levels to determine compliance, calculated as
shown in sections 3 and 4 of this appendix.
Ozone monitoring season refers to the span
of time within a calendar year when
individual States are required to measure
ambient O3 concentrations as listed in part 58
appendix D to this chapter.
W126 is the weighted hourly O3
concentrations based on seasonal
measurements as explained in section 4 of
this appendix.
2.1 Data Reporting and Handling
Conventions
Computing 8-hour averages. Hourly
average concentrations shall be reported in
parts per million (ppm) to the third decimal
place, with additional digits to the right
being truncated. Running 8-hour averages
shall be computed from the hourly O3
concentration data for each hour of the year
and the result shall be stored in the first, or
start, hour of the 8-hour period. An 8-hour
average shall be considered valid if at least
75% of the hourly averages for the 8-hour
period are available. In the event that only 6
(or 7) hourly averages are available, the 8hour average shall be computed on the basis
of the hours available using 6 (or 7) as the
divisor (8-hour periods with three or more
missing hours shall not be ignored if, after
substituting one-half the minimum detectable
limit for the missing hourly concentrations,
the 8-hour average concentration is greater
than the level of the standard). The computed
8-hour average O3 concentrations shall be
reported to three decimal places (the
insignificant digits to the right of the third
decimal place are truncated, consistent with
the data handling procedures for the reported
data).
Daily maximum 8-hour average
concentrations. (a) There are 24 possible
running 8-hour average O3 concentrations for
each calendar day during the O3 monitoring
season. The daily maximum 8-hour
concentration for a given calendar day is the
highest of the 24 possible 8-hour average
concentrations computed for that day. This
process is repeated, yielding a daily
maximum 8-hour average O3 concentration
for each calendar day with ambient O3
monitoring data. Because the 8-hour averages
are recorded in the start hour, the daily
maximum 8-hour concentrations from two
consecutive days may have some hourly
concentrations in common. Generally,
overlapping daily maximum 8-hour averages
are not likely, except in those non-urban
monitoring locations with less pronounced
diurnal variation in hourly concentrations.
(b) An O3 monitoring day shall be counted
as a valid day if valid 8-hour averages are
available for at least 75% of possible hours
in the day (i.e., at least 18 of the 24 averages).
In the event that less than 75% of the 8-hour
averages are available, a day shall also be
counted as a valid day if the daily maximum
8-hour average concentration for that day is
greater than the level of the ambient
standard.
37917
2.2 Primary Standard-Related Summary
Statistic
The standard-related summary statistic is
the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8hour O3 concentration, expressed in parts per
million, averaged over three years. The 3-year
average shall be computed using the three
most recent, consecutive calendar years of
monitoring data meeting the data
completeness requirements described in this
appendix. The computed 3-year average of
the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8hour average O3 concentrations shall be
reported to three decimal places (the
insignificant digits to the right of the third
decimal place are truncated, consistent with
the data handling procedures for the reported
data).
2.3 Comparisons With the Primary Ozone
Standard
(a) The primary O3 ambient air quality
standard is met at an ambient air quality
monitoring site when the 3-year average of
the annual fourth-highest daily maximum 8hour average O3 concentration is less than or
equal to [0.070 to 0.075] ppm.
(b) This comparison shall be based on three
consecutive, complete calendar years of air
quality monitoring data. This requirement is
met for the three year period at a monitoring
site if daily maximum 8-hour average
concentrations are available for at least 90%,
on average, of the days during the designated
O3 monitoring season, with a minimum data
completeness in any one year of at least 75%
of the designated sampling days. When
computing whether the minimum data
completeness requirements have been met,
meteorological or ambient data may be
sufficient to demonstrate that meteorological
conditions on missing days were not
conducive to concentrations above the level
of the standard. Missing days assumed less
than the level of the standard are counted for
the purpose of meeting the data completeness
requirement, subject to the approval of the
appropriate Regional Administrator.
(c) Years with concentrations greater than
the level of the standard shall not be ignored
on the ground that they have less than
complete data. Thus, in computing the 3-year
average fourth maximum concentration,
calendar years with less than 75% data
completeness shall be included in the
computation if the average annual fourth
maximum 8-hour concentration is greater
than the level of the standard.
(d) Comparisons with the primary O3
standard is demonstrated by examples 1 and
2 in paragraphs (d)(1) and (d)(2) respectively
as follows:
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EXAMPLE 1.—AMBIENT MONITORING SITE ATTAINING THE PRIMARY O3 STANDARD
Percent valid
days
(percent)
Year
2004 .........................................................
2005 .........................................................
2006 .........................................................
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96
98
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1st Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
2nd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
0.092
0.084
0.080
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3rd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
0.090
0.083
0.079
E:\FR\FM\11JYP2.SGM
0.085
0.075
0.073
11JYP2
4th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
0.079
0.072
0.061
5th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
0.078
0.070
0.060
37918
Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 11, 2007 / Proposed Rules
EXAMPLE 1.—AMBIENT MONITORING SITE ATTAINING THE PRIMARY O3 STANDARD
1st Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
2nd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
3rd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
........................
........................
........................
Percent valid
days
(percent)
Year
Average .............................................
98
(1) As shown in example 1, the primary
standard is met at this monitoring site
because the 3-year average of the annual
fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour
average O3 concentrations (i.e., 0.0707 ppm,
truncated to 0.070 ppm) is less than or equal
to [0.070 to 0.75] ppm. The data
completeness requirement is also met
because the average percent of days with
valid ambient monitoring data is greater than
4th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
0.070
5th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
........................
90%, and no single year has less than 75%
data completeness. In Example 1, the
individual 8-hour averages used to determine
the annual fourth maximum are truncated to
the third decimal place.
EXAMPLE 2.—AMBIENT MONITORING SITE FAILING TO MEET THE PRIMARY O3 STANDARD
1st Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
Percent valid
days
(percent)
Year
2nd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
3rd Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
4th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
5th Highest
daily max
8-hour Conc.
(ppm)
2004 .........................................................
2005 .........................................................
2006 .........................................................
96
74
98
0.105
0.104
0.103
0.103
0.103
0.101
0.103
0.092
0.101
0.102
0.091
0.095
0.102
0.088
0.094
Average .............................................
89
........................
........................
........................
0.096
........................
As shown in example 2, the primary
standard is not met at this monitoring site
because the 3-year average of the fourthhighest daily maximum 8-hour average O3
concentrations (i.e., 0.0960 ppm, truncated to
0.096 ppm) is greater than [0.070 to 0.075]
ppm. Note that the O3 concentration data for
2005 is used in these computations, even
though the data capture is less than 75%,
because the average fourth-highest daily
maximum 8-hour average concentration is
greater than [0.070 to 0.075] ppm. In Example
2, the individual 8-hour averages used to
determine the annual fourth maximum are
truncated to the third decimal place.
3. Design Values for Primary Ambient Air
Quality Standards for Ozone
The air quality design value at a
monitoring site is defined as that
concentration that when reduced to the level
of the standard ensures that the site meets the
standard. For a concentration-based standard,
the air quality design value is simply the
standard-related test statistic. Thus, for the
primary standard, the 3-year average annual
fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour
average O3 concentration is also the air
quality design value for the site.
million (ppm) to the third decimal place,
with additional digits to the right being
truncated. The first step in computing the
daily index value, D.I., for the daylight hours
is to apply a sigmoidal weighting function in
the form of Equation 1 in this appendix:
4. Secondary Ambient Air Quality Standard
for Ozone
Equation 1
4.1 Data Reporting and Handling
Conventions
Computing the daily index value (D.I.). The
secondary O3 standard is a seasonal standard
expressed as the sum of weighted hourly
concentrations, cumulated over the 12 hour
daylight period, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. local
standard time (LST), during the maximum
consecutive 3-month period within the O3
monitoring season. Hourly average
concentrations for each hour from 8 a.m. to
8 p.m. LST shall be reported in parts per
1
O3 ∗
1 + 4403 ∗ e −126 ∗ O3
(
)
to each measurement of hourly average
concentration, where O3 is the average hourly
O3 concentration expressed in ppm. The
computed value of the sigmoidally weighted
hourly concentration shall be expressed to
three decimal places (the remaining digits to
the right are truncated). An illustration of
computing a daily index value is below:
EXAMPLE 3.—DAILY INDEX VALUE CALCULATION FOR AN AMBIENT O3 MONITORING SITE
pwalker on PROD1PC71 with PROPOSALS2
8:00 AM ...................................................................................................................................................................
9:00 AM ...................................................................................................................................................................
10:00 AM .................................................................................................................................................................
11:00 AM .................................................................................................................................................................
12:00 PM .................................................................................................................................................................
1:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
2:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
3:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
4:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
5:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
6:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
7:00 PM ...................................................................................................................................................................
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Weighted
concentration
(ppm)
0.045
0.060
0.075
0.080
0.079
0.082
0.085
0.088
0.083
0.081
0.065
0.056
0.002
0.018
0.055
0.067
0.065
0.071
0.077
0.082
0.073
0.069
0.029
0.011
EP11JY07.002
Concentration
(ppm)
Start hour
Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 11, 2007 / Proposed Rules
Daily index value (D.I.) = 0.002 + 0.018 +
0.055 + 0.067 + 0.065 + 0.071 + 0.077 +
0.082 + 0.073 + 0.069 + 0.029 + 0.011 =
0.619 ppm-hours
Computing the monthly cumulative index
(W126). The daily index value is computed
at each monitoring site for each calendar day
in each month during the O3 monitoring. At
an individual monitoring site, a month is
counted as a valid O3 monitoring month if
hourly average O3 concentrations are
available for at least 75% of the possible
index hours in the month. For months with
less than 75% data completeness, the
monthly cumulative index value shall be
adjusted for incomplete sampling by
multiplying the unadjusted W126 cumulative
index value by the ratio of the number of
possible daylight hours to the number of
hours with valid ambient hourly
concentrations using Equation 2 in this
appendix:
37919
Specifically, the annual W126 value is
computed on a calendar year basis using the
three highest, consecutive monthly W126
values.
Equation 2
n
M.I. = ∑ (D.I.) ∗ (n ∗12)/ v
j=1
Where,
M.I. = the monthly sum of the weighted
daylight hours,
D.I. = the daily sum of the weighted daylight
hours,
n = the number of days in the calendar
month,
v = the number of daylight hours (8:00 a.m.—
8:00 p.m. LST) with valid hourly O3
concentrations.
4.2 Secondary Standard-related Summary
Statistic
The standard-related summary statistic is
the annual maximum consecutive 3-month
W126 value expressed in ppm-hours.
4.3 Comparisons with the Secondary Ozone
Standard
The secondary ambient O3 air quality
standard is met when the annual maximum
W126 value based on a consecutive 3-month
period at an O3 air quality monitoring site is
less than or equal to [7 to 21] ppm-hours. The
number of significant figures in the level of
the standard dictates the rounding
convention for comparing the computed
W126 value with the level of the standard.
The first decimal place of the computed
W126 value is rounded, with values equal to
or greater than of 0.5 rounding up.
EXAMPLE 4.—CALCULATION OF THE MAXIMUM 3-MONTH W126 VALUE AT AN AMBIENT AIR QUALITY MONITORING SITE
FAILING TO MEET THE SECONDARY O3 STANDARD
April
Monthly W126 ...........................................
3-Month Total ............................................
May
4.442
na
As shown in example 4, the maximum
consecutive 3-month W126 value for this site
9.124
na
June
July
12.983
26.549
is 43 ppm-hours. Because 43 ppm-hours is
greater than [7 to 21] ppm-hours, the
August
16.153
38.260
September
13.555
42.691
4.364
34.072
October
1.302
19.221
secondary standard is not met at this ambient
air quality monitoring site.
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BILLING CODE 6560–50–P
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 72, Number 132 (Wednesday, July 11, 2007)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 37818-37919]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E7-12416]
[[Page 37817]]
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Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
40 CFR Part 50
National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone; Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 72, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 11, 2007 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 37818]]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 50
[EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0172; FRL-8331-5]
RIN 2060-AN24
National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Ozone
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: Based on its review of the air quality criteria for ozone
(O3) and related photochemical oxidants and national ambient
air quality standards (NAAQS) for O3, EPA proposes to make
revisions to the primary and secondary NAAQS for O3 to
provide requisite protection of public health and welfare,
respectively, and to make corresponding revisions in data handling
conventions for O3.
With regard to the primary standard for O3, EPA proposes
to revise the level of the 8-hour standard to a level within the range
of 0.070 to 0.075 parts per million (ppm), to provide increased
protection for children and other ``at risk'' populations against an
array of O3-related adverse health effects that range from
decreased lung function and increased respiratory symptoms to serious
indicators of respiratory morbidity including emergency department
visits and hospital admissions for respiratory causes, and possibly
cardiovascular-related morbidity as well as total nonaccidental and
cardiopulmonary mortality. The EPA also proposes to specify the level
of the primary standard to the nearest thousandth ppm. The EPA solicits
comment on alternative levels down to 0.060 ppm and up to and including
retaining the current 8-hour standard of 0.08 ppm (effectively 0.084
ppm using current data rounding conventions).
With regard to the secondary standard for O3, EPA
proposes to revise the current 8-hour standard with one of two options
to provide increased protection against O3-related adverse
impacts on vegetation and forested ecosystems. One option is to replace
the current standard with a cumulative, seasonal standard expressed as
an index of the annual sum of weighted hourly concentrations, cumulated
over 12 hours per day (8 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.) during the consecutive 3-
month period within the O3 season with the maximum index
value, set at a level within the range of 7 to 21 ppm-hours. The other
option is to make the secondary standard identical to the proposed
primary 8-hour standard. The EPA solicits comment on specifying a
cumulative, seasonal standard in terms of a 3-year average of the
annual sums of weighted hourly concentrations; on the range of
alternative 8-hour standard levels for which comment is being solicited
for the primary standard, including retaining the current secondary
standard, which is identical to the current primary standard; and on an
alternative approach to setting a cumulative, seasonal secondary
standard(s).
DATES: Written comments on this proposed rule must be received by
October 9, 2007.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-
OAR-2005-0172, by one of the following methods:
www.regulations.gov: Follow the on-line instructions for
submitting comments.
E-mail: a-and-r-Docket@epa.gov.
Fax: 202-566-1741.
Mail: Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0172, Environmental
Protection Agency, Mail code 6102T, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW.,
Washington, DC 20460. Please include a total of two copies.
Hand Delivery: Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2005-0172,
Environmental Protection Agency, EPA West, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution
Ave., NW., Washington, DC. Such deliveries are only accepted during the
Docket's normal hours of operation, and special arrangements should be
made for deliveries of boxed information.
Instructions: Direct your comments to Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-
2005-0172. The EPA's policy is that all comments received will be
included in the public docket without change and may be made available
online at www.regulations.gov, including any personal information
provided, unless the comment includes information claimed to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute. Do not submit information that you
consider to be CBI or otherwise protected through www.regulations.gov
or e-mail. The www.regulations.gov Web site is an ``anonymous access''
system, which means EPA will not know your identity or contact
information unless you provide it in the body of your comment. If you
send an e-mail comment directly to EPA without going through
www.regulations.gov, your e-mail address will be automatically captured
and included as part of the comment that is placed in the public docket
and made available on the Internet. If you submit an electronic
comment, EPA recommends that you include your name and other contact
information in the body of your comment and with any disk or CD-ROM you
submit. If EPA cannot read your comment due to technical difficulties
and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to
consider your comment. Electronic files should avoid the use of special
characters, any form of encryption, and be free of any defects or
viruses. For additional information about EPA's public docket, visit
the EPA Docket Center homepage at https://www.epa.gov/epahome/
dockets.htm.
Docket: All documents in the docket are listed in the
www.regulations.gov index. Although listed in the index, some
information is not publicly available, e.g., CBI or other information
whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Certain other material, such
as copyrighted material, will be publicly available only in hard copy.
Publicly available docket materials are available either electronically
in www.regulations.gov or in hard copy at the Air and Radiation Docket
and Information Center, EPA/DC, EPA West, Room 3334, 1301 Constitution
Ave., NW., Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30
a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding legal holidays. The
telephone number for the Public Reading Room is (202) 566-1744 and the
telephone number for the Air and Radiation Docket and Information
Center is (202) 566-1742.
Public Hearings: The EPA intends to hold public hearings around the
end of August to early September in several cities across the country,
and will announce in a separate Federal Register notice the dates,
times, and addresses of the public hearings on this proposed rule.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Dr. David J. McKee, Health and
Environmental Impacts Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Mail code C504-06,
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711; telephone: 919-541-5288; fax: 919-
541-0237; e-mail: mckee.dave@epa.gov.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
General Information
What Should I Consider as I Prepare My Comments for EPA?
1. Submitting CBI. Do not submit this information to EPA through
www.regulations.gov or e-mail. Clearly mark the part or all of the
information that you claim to be CBI. For CBI information in a disk or
CD ROM that
[[Page 37819]]
you mail to EPA, mark the outside of the disk or CD ROM as CBI and then
identify electronically within the disk or CD ROM the specific
information that is claimed as CBI. In addition to one complete version
of the comment that includes information claimed as CBI, a copy of the
comment that does not contain the information claimed as CBI must be
submitted for inclusion in the public docket. Information so marked
will not be disclosed except in accordance with procedures set forth in
40 CFR part 2.
2. Tips for Preparing Your Comments. When submitting comments,
remember to:
Identify the rulemaking by docket number and other
identifying information (subject heading, Federal Register date and
page number).
Follow directions--The Agency may ask you to respond to
specific questions or organize comments by referencing a Code of
Federal Regulations (CFR) part or section number.
Explain why you agree or disagree, suggest alternatives,
and substitute language for your requested changes.
Describe any assumptions and provide any technical
information and/or data that you used.
If you estimate potential costs or burdens, explain how
you arrived at your estimate in sufficient detail to allow for it to be
reproduced.
Provide specific examples to illustrate your concerns, and
suggest alternatives.
Explain your views as clearly as possible, avoiding the
use of profanity or personal threats.
Make sure to submit your comments by the comment period
deadline identified.
Availability of Related Information
A number of documents relevant to this rulemaking are available on
EPA Web sites. The Air Quality Criteria for Ozone and Related
Photochemical Oxidants (Criteria Document) (two volumes, EPA/ and EPA/,
date) is available on EPA's National Center for Environmental
Assessment Web site. To obtain this document, go to https://www.epa.gov/
ncea, and click on ``Ozone.'' The Staff Paper, human exposure and
health risk assessments, vegetation exposure and impact assessment, and
other related technical documents are available on EPA's Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) Technology Transfer Network
(TTN) Web site. The Staff Paper is available at https://www.epa.gov/ttn/
naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_cr_sp.html, and the exposure and risk
assessments and other related technical documents are available at
https://www.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/standards/ozone/s_o3_cr_td.html. EPA
will be making available corrected versions of the final Staff Paper
and human exposure and health risk assessment technical support
documents on these same EPA Web sites on or around July 16, 2007. These
and other related documents are also available for inspection and
copying in the EPA docket identified above.
Table of Contents
The following topics are discussed in this preamble:
I. Background
A. Legislative Requirements
B. Related Control Requirements
C. Review of Air Quality Criteria and Standards for
O3
II. Rationale for Proposed Decision on the Primary Standard
A. Health Effects Information
1. Mechanisms
2. Nature of Effects
3. Interpretation and Integration of the Health Evidence
4. O3-Related Impacts on Public Health
B. Human Exposure and Health Risk Assessments
1. Exposure Analyses
2. Quantitative Health Risk Assessment
C. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the Current Primary Standard
1. Background
2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based Considerations
3. CASAC Views
4. Administrator's Proposed Conclusions Concerning Adequacy of
Current Standard
D. Conclusions on the Elements of the Primary Standard
1. Indicator
2. Averaging Time
3. Form
4. Level
E. Proposed Decision on the Primary Standard
III. Communication of Public Health Information
IV. Rationale for Proposed Decision on the Secondary Standard
A. Vegetation Effects Information
1. Mechanisms Governing Plant Response to Ozone
2. Nature of Effects
3. Adversity of Effects
B. Biologically Relevant Exposure Indices
C. Vegetation Exposure and Impact Assessment
1. Exposure Characterization
2. Assessment of Risks to Vegetation
D. Conclusions on the Adequacy of the Current Standard
1. Background
2. Evidence- and Exposure/Risk-Based Considerations
3. CASAC Views
4. Administrator's Proposed Conclusions Concerning Adequacy of
Current Standard
E. Conclusions on the Elements of the Secondary Standard
1. Indicator
2. Cumulative, Seasonal Standard
3. 8-Hour Average Standard
F. Proposed Decision on the Secondary Standard
V. Creation of Appendix P--Interpretation of the NAAQS for Ozone
A. Data Completeness
B. Data Handling and Rounding O3 Conventions
VI. Ambient Monitoring Related to Proposed Revised Standards
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
References
I. Background
A. Legislative Requirements
Two sections of the Clean Air Act (CAA) govern the establishment
and revision of the NAAQS. Section 108 (42 U.S.C. 7408) directs the
Administrator to identify and list ``air pollutants'' that ``in his
judgment, may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health and
welfare'' and whose ``presence * * * in the ambient air results from
numerous or diverse mobile or stationary sources'' and to issue air
quality criteria for those that are listed. Air quality criteria are
intended to ``accurately reflect the latest scientific knowledge useful
in indicating the kind and extent of identifiable effects on public
health or welfare which may be expected from the presence of [a]
pollutant in ambient air * * *.''
Section 109 (42 U.S.C. 7409) directs the Administrator to propose
and promulgate ``primary'' and ``secondary'' NAAQS for pollutants
listed under section 108. Section 109(b)(1) defines a primary standard
as one ``the attainment and maintenance of which in the judgment of the
Administrator, based on such criteria and allowing an adequate margin
of safety, are requisite to protect the public health.'' \1\ A
secondary standard, as defined in section 109(b)(2), must ``specify a
level of air quality the attainment and maintenance of which, in the
judgment of the Administrator, based on such criteria, is requisite to
protect the public welfare from any known or anticipated adverse
effects associated with the presence of [the] pollutant in the ambient
air.'' \2\
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\1\ The legislative history of section 109 indicates that a
primary standard is to be set at ``the maximum permissible ambient
air level * * * which will protect the health of any [sensitive]
group of the population,'' and that for this purpose ``reference
should be made to a representative sample of persons comprising the
sensitive group rather than to a single person in such a group'' [S.
Rep. No. 91-1196, 91st Cong., 2d Sess. 10 (1970)].
\2\ Welfare effects as defined in section 302(h) (42 U.S.C.
7602(h)) include, but are not limited to, ``effects on soils, water,
crops, vegetation, man-made materials, animals, wildlife, weather,
visibility and climate, damage to and deterioration of property, and
hazards to transportation, as well as effects on economic values and
on personal comfort and well-being.''
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[[Page 37820]]
The requirement that primary standards include an adequate margin
of safety was intended to address uncertainties associated with
inconclusive scientific and technical information available at the time
of standard setting. It was also intended to provide a reasonable
degree of protection against hazards that research has not yet
identified. Lead Industries Association v. EPA, 647 F.2d 1130, 1154 (DC
Cir 1980), cert. denied, 449 U.S. 1042 (1980); American Petroleum
Institute v. Costle, 665 F.2d 1176, 1186 (D.C. Cir. 1981), cert.
denied, 455 U.S. 1034 (1982). Both kinds of uncertainties are
components of the risk associated with pollution at levels below those
at which human health effects can be said to occur with reasonable
scientific certainty. Thus, in selecting primary standards that include
an adequate margin of safety, the Administrator is seeking not only to
prevent pollution levels that have been demonstrated to be harmful but
also to prevent lower pollutant levels that may pose an unacceptable
risk of harm, even if the risk is not precisely identified as to nature
or degree. The CAA does not require the Administrator to establish a
primary NAAQS at a zero-risk level or at background concentration
levels, see Lead Industries Association v. EPA, 647 F.2d at 1156 n. 51,
but rather at a level that reduces risk sufficiently so as to protect
public health with an adequate margin of safety.
In addressing the requirement for an adequate margin of safety, EPA
considers such factors as the nature and severity of the health effects
involved, the size of the population(s) at risk, and the kind and
degree of the uncertainties that must be addressed. The selection of
any particular approach to providing an adequate margin of safety is a
policy choice left specifically to the Administrator's judgment. Lead
Industries Association v. EPA, 647 F.2d at 1161-62; Whitman v. American
Trucking Associations, 531 U.S. 457, 495 (2001) (Breyer, J., concurring
in part and concurring in judgment).
In setting standards that are ``requisite'' to protect public
health and welfare, as provided in section 109(b), EPA's task is to
establish standards that are neither more nor less stringent than
necessary for these purposes. Whitman v. American Trucking
Associations, 531 U.S. 457, 473. In establishing ``requisite'' primary
and secondary standards, EPA may not consider the costs of implementing
the standards. Id. at 471. As discussed by Justice Breyer in Whitman v.
American Trucking Associations, however, ``this interpretation of Sec.
109 does not require the EPA to eliminate every health risk, however
slight, at any economic cost, however great, to the point of
``hurtling'' industry over ``the brink of ruin,'' or even forcing
``deindustrialization.'' Id. at 494 (Breyer J., concurring in part and
concurring in judgment) (citations omitted). Rather, as Justice Breyer
explained:
The statute, by its express terms, does not compel the
elimination of all risk; and it grants the Administrator sufficient
flexibility to avoid setting ambient air quality standards ruinous
to industry.
Section 109(b)(1) directs the Administrator to set standards
that are ``requisite to protect the public health'' with ``an
adequate margin of safety.'' But these words do not describe a world
that is free of all risk--an impossible and undesirable objective.
(citation omitted). Nor are the words ``requisite'' and ``public
health'' to be understood independent of context. We consider
football equipment ``safe'' even if its use entails a level of risk
that would make drinking water ``unsafe'' for consumption. And what
counts as ``requisite'' to protecting the public health will
similarly vary with background circumstances, such as the public's
ordinary tolerance of the particular health risk in the particular
context at issue. The Administrator can consider such background
circumstances when ``deciding what risks are acceptable in the world
in which we live.'' (citation omitted).
The statute also permits the Administrator to take account of
comparative health risks. That is to say, she may consider whether a
proposed rule promotes safety overall. A rule likely to cause more
harm to health than it prevents is not a rule that is ``requisite to
protect the public health.'' For example, as the Court of Appeals
held and the parties do not contest, the Administrator has the
authority to determine to what extent possible health risks stemming
from reductions in tropospheric ozone (which, it is claimed, helps
prevent cataracts and skin cancer) should be taken into account in
setting the ambient air quality standard for ozone. (citation
omitted).
The statute ultimately specifies that the standard set must be
``requisite to protect the public health'' ``in the judgment of the
Administrator,'' Sec. 109(b)(1), 84 Stat. 1680 (emphasis added), a
phrase that grants the Administrator considerable discretionary
standard-setting authority.
The statute's words, then, authorize the Administrator to
consider the severity of a pollutant's potential adverse health
effects, the number of those likely to be affected, the distribution
of the adverse effects, and the uncertainties surrounding each
estimate. (citation omitted). They permit the Administrator to take
account of comparative health consequences. They allow her to take
account of context when determining the acceptability of small risks
to health. And they give her considerable discretion when she does
so.
This discretion would seem sufficient to avoid the extreme
results that some of the industry parties fear. After all, the EPA,
in setting standards that ``protect the public health'' with ``an
adequate margin of safety,'' retains discretionary authority to
avoid regulating risks that it reasonably concludes are trivial in
context. Nor need regulation lead to deindustrialization.
Preindustrial society was not a very healthy society; hence a
standard demanding the return of the Stone Age would not prove
``requisite to protect the public health.''
Although I rely more heavily than does the Court upon
legislative history and alternative sources of statutory
flexibility, I reach the same ultimate conclusion. Section 109 does
not delegate to the EPA authority to base the national ambient air
quality standards, in whole or in part, upon the economic costs of
compliance.
Id. at 494-496.
Section 109(d)(1) of the CAA requires that ``not later than
December 31, 1980, and at 5-year intervals thereafter, the
Administrator shall complete a thorough review of the criteria
published under section 108 and the national ambient air quality
standards * * * and shall make such revisions in such criteria and
standards and promulgate such new standards as may be appropriate * *
*.'' Section 109(d)(2) requires that an independent scientific review
committee ``shall complete a review of the criteria * * * and the
national primary and secondary ambient air quality standards * * * and
shall recommend to the Administrator any new * * * standards and
revisions of existing criteria and standards as may be appropriate * *
*.'' This independent review function is performed by the Clean Air
Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) of EPA's Science Advisory Board.
B. Related Control Requirements
States have primary responsibility for ensuring attainment and
maintenance of ambient air quality standards once EPA has established
them. Under section 110 of the Act (42 U.S.C. 7410) and related
provisions, States are to submit, for EPA approval, State
implementation plans (SIPs) that provide for the attainment and
maintenance of such standards through control programs directed to
emission sources. The majority of man-made NOX and VOC
emissions that contribute to O3 formation in the United
States come from three types of sources: mobile sources, industrial
processes (which include consumer and commercial products), and the
electric
[[Page 37821]]
power industry.\3\ Mobile sources and the electric power industry were
responsible for 78 percent of annual NOX emissions in 2004.
That same year, 99 percent of man-made VOC emissions came from
industrial processes (including solvents) and mobile sources. Emissions
from natural sources, such as trees, may also comprise a significant
portion of total VOC emissions in certain regions of the country,
especially during the O3 season, which are considered
natural background emissions.
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\3\ See EPA report, Evaluating Ozone Control Programs in the
Eastern United States: Focus on the NOX Budget Trading Program,
2004.
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EPA has developed new emissions standards for many types of
stationary sources and for nearly every class of mobile sources in the
last decade to reduce O3 by decreasing emissions of
NOX and VOC. These programs complement State and local
efforts to improve O3 air quality and meet current national
standards. Under the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP, see
title II of the CAA, 42 U.S.C. 7521-7574), EPA has established new
emissions standards for nearly every type of automobile, truck, bus,
motorcycle, earth mover, and aircraft engine, and for the fuels used to
power these engines. EPA also established new standards for the smaller
engines used in small watercraft, lawn and garden equipment. Recently
EPA proposed new standards for locomotive and marine diesel engines.
Benefits from engine standards increase modestly each year as older,
more-polluting vehicles and engines are replaced with newer, cleaner
models. In time, these programs will yield substantial emission
reductions. Benefits from fuel programs generally begin as soon as a
new fuel is available.
The reduction of VOC emissions from industrial processes has been
achieved either directly or indirectly through implementation of
control technology standards, including maximum achievable control
technology, reasonably available control technology, and best available
control technology standards; or are anticipated due to proposed or
upcoming proposals based on generally available control technology or
best available controls under provisions related to consumer and
commercial products. These standards have resulted in VOC emission
reductions of almost a million tons per year accumulated starting in
1997 from a variety of sources including combustion sources, coating
categories, and chemical manufacturing. The EPA is currently working to
finalize new federal rules, or amendments to existing rules, that will
establish new nationwide VOC content limits for several categories of
consumer and commercial products, including aerosol coatings,
architectural and industrial maintenance coatings, and household and
institutional commercial products. These rules will take effect in
2009, and will yield significant new reductions in nationwide VOC
emissions--about 200,000 tons per year. Additionally, in O3
nonattainment areas, we anticipate reductions of an additional 25,000
tons per year following completion of control technique recommendations
for 3 additional consumer and commercial product categories. These
emission reductions primarily result from solvent controls and
typically occur where and when the solvent is used, such as during
manufacturing processes.
The power industry is one of the largest emitters of NOX
in the United States. Power industry emission sources include large
electric generating units and some large industrial boilers and
turbines. The EPA's landmark Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), issued
on March 10, 2005, permanently caps power industry emissions of
NOX in the eastern United States. The first phase of the cap
begins in 2009, and a lower second phase cap begins in 2015. By 2015,
EPA projects that the CAIR and other programs in the Eastern U.S. will
reduce power industry O3 season NOX emissions in
that region by about 50 percent and annual NOX emissions by
about 60 percent from 2003 levels.
With respect to agricultural sources, the U.S. Department of
Agriculture (USDA) has approved conservation systems and activities
that reduce agricultural emissions of NOX and VOC. Current
practices that may reduce emissions of NOX and VOC include
engine replacement programs, diesel retrofit programs, manipulation of
pesticide applications including timing of applications, and animal
feeding operations waste management techniques. The EPA recognizes that
USDA has been working with the agricultural community to develop
conservation systems and activities to control emissions of
O3 precursors.
These conservation activities are voluntarily adopted through the
use of incentives provided to the agricultural producer. In cases where
the States need these measures to attain the standard, the measures
could be adopted. The EPA will continue to work with USDA on these
activities with efforts to identify and/or improve the control
efficiencies, prioritize the adoption of these conservation systems and
activities, and ensure that appropriate criteria are used for
identifying the most effective application of conservation systems and
activities.
The EPA will work together with USDA and with States to identify
appropriate measures to meet the primary and secondary standards,
including site-specific conservation systems and activities. Based on
prior experience identifying conservation measures and practices to
meet the PM NAAQS requirements, the EPA will use a similar process to
identify measures that could meet the O3 requirements. The
EPA anticipates that certain USDA-approved conservation systems and
activities that reduce agricultural emissions of NOX and VOC
may be able to satisfy the requirements for applicable sources to
implement reasonably available control measures for purposes of
attaining the primary and secondary O3 NAAQS.
C. Review of Air Quality Criteria and Standards for O3
Tropospheric (ground-level) O3 is formed from biogenic
and anthropogenic precursor emissions. Naturally occurring
O3 in the troposphere can result from biogenic organic
precursors reacting with naturally occurring nitrogen oxides
(NOX) and by stratospheric O3 intrusion into the
troposphere. Anthropogenic precursors of O3, specifically
NOX and volatile organic compounds (VOC), originate from a
wide variety of stationary and mobile sources. Ambient O3
concentrations produced by these emissions are directly affected by
temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and other meteorological
factors.
The last review of the O3 NAAQS was completed on July
18, 1997, based on the 1996 O3 CD (U.S. EPA, 1996a) and 1996
O3 Staff Paper (U.S. EPA, 1996b). EPA revised the primary
and secondary O3 standards on the basis of the then latest
scientific evidence linking exposures to ambient O3 to
adverse health and welfare effects at levels allowed by the 1-hour
average standards (62 FR 38856). The O3 standards were
revised by replacing the existing primary 1-hour average standard with
an 8-hour average O3 standard set at a level of 0.08 ppm,
which is equivalent to 0.084 ppm using the standard rounding
conventions. The form of the primary standard was changed to the annual
fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hour average concentration, averaged
over three years. The secondary O3 standard was changed by
making it identical in all respects to the revised primary standard.
Following promulgation of the revised O3 NAAQS,
petitions for review were
[[Page 37822]]
filed addressing a broad range of issues. In May 1999, in response to
those challenges, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of
Columbia Circuit held that EPA's approach to establishing the level of
the standards in 1997, both for the O3 and for the
particulate matter (PM) NAAQS promulgated on the same day, effected
``an unconstitutional delegation of legislative authority.'' American
Trucking Associations v. EPA, 175 F.3d 1027 (DC Cir., 1999). Although
the D.C. Circuit stated that ``factors EPA uses in determining the
degree of public health concern associated with different levels of
O3 and PM are reasonable,'' it remanded the rule to EPA,
stating that when EPA considers these factors for potential non-
threshold pollutants ``what EPA lacks is any determinate criterion for
drawing lines'' to determine where the standards should be set. Id. at
1034. Consistent with EPA's long-standing interpretation and DC Circuit
precedent, the court also reaffirmed prior rulings holding that in
setting the NAAQS, it is ``not permitted to consider the cost of
implementing those standards.'' Id. at 1040-41. The DC Circuit further
directed EPA to consider on remand the potential indirect beneficial
health effects of O3 pollution in shielding the public from
the effects of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, as well as the direct
adverse health effects of O3 pollution.
Both sides filed cross appeals on the constitutional and cost
issues to the United States Supreme Court, and the Court granted
certiorari. On February 27, 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a
unanimous decision upholding the EPA's position on both the
constitutional and the cost issues. Whitman v. American Trucking
Associations, 531 U.S. at 464, 475-76. On the constitutional issue, the
Court held that the statutory requirement that NAAQS be ``requisite''
to protect public health with an adequate margin of safety sufficiently
guided EPA's discretion, affirming EPA's approach of setting standards
that are neither more nor less stringent than necessary. The Supreme
Court remanded the case to the D.C. Circuit for resolution of any
remaining issues that had not been addressed by that Court's earlier
decisions. Id. at 475-76. On March 26, 2002, the D.C. Circuit Court
rejected all remaining challenges to the NAAQS, holding under
traditional standard of review that EPA ``engaged in reasoned decision-
making'' in setting the 1997 O3 NAAQS. Whitman v. American
Trucking Associations, 283 F.3d 355 (DC Cir. 2002).
In response to the DC Circuit Court's remand to consider the
potential indirect beneficial health effects of O3 in
shielding the public from the effects of solar (UV) radiation, on
November 14, 2001, EPA proposed to leave the 1997 8-hour NAAQS
unchanged (66 FR 57267). After considering public comment on the
proposed decision, EPA reaffirmed the 8-hour O3 NAAQS set in
1997 (68 FR 614). Finally, on April 30, 2004, EPA issued an 8-hour
implementation rule that, among other things, provided that the 1-hour
O3 NAAQS would no longer apply to areas one year after the
effective date of the designation of those areas for the 8-hour NAAQS
(69 FR 23966).\4\ For most areas, the date that the 1-hour NAAQS no
longer applied was June 15, 2005. (See 40 CFR 50.9 for details.)
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\4\ On December 22, 2006, the D.C. Circuit vacated the April 30,
2004 implementation rule. South Coast Air Quality Management
District v. EPA, 472 F.3d 882. In March 2007, EPA requested the
Court to reconsider its decision.
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The EPA initiated this current review in September 2000 with a call
for information (65 FR 57810) for the development of a revised Air
Quality Criteria Document for O3 and Other Photochemical
Oxidants (henceforth the ``Criteria Document''). A project work plan
(U.S. EPA, 2002) for the preparation of the Criteria Document was
released in November 2002 for CASAC and public review. EPA held a
series of workshops in mid-2003 on several draft chapters of the
Criteria Document to obtain broad input from the relevant scientific
communities. These workshops helped to inform the preparation of the
first draft Criteria Document (EPA, 2005a), which was released for
CASAC and public review on January 31, 2005; a CASAC meeting was held
on May 4-5, 2005 to review the first draft Criteria Document. A second
draft Criteria Document (EPA, 2005b) was released for CASAC and public
review on August 31, 2005, and was discussed along with a first draft
Staff Paper (EPA, 2005c) at a CASAC meeting held on December 6-8, 2005.
In a February 16, 2006 letter to the Administrator, the CASAC offered
final comments on all chapters of the Criteria Document (Henderson,
2006a), and the final Criteria Document (EPA, 2006a) was released on
March 21, 2006. In a June 8, 2006 letter (Henderson, 2006b) to the
Administrator, the CASAC offered additional advice to the Agency
concerning chapter 8 of the final Criteria Document (Integrative
Synthesis) to help inform the second draft Staff Paper.
A second draft Staff Paper (EPA, 2006b) was released on July 17,
2006 and reviewed by CASAC on August 24 and 25, 2006. In an October 24,
2006 letter to the Administrator, CASAC provided advice and
recommendations to the Agency concerning the second draft Staff Paper
(Henderson, 2006c). A final Staff Paper (EPA, 2007) was released on
January 31, 2007. Around the time of the release of the final Staff
Paper in January 2007, EPA discovered a small error in the exposure
model that when corrected resulted in slight increases in the human
exposure estimates. Since the exposure estimates are an input to the
lung function portion of the health risk assessment, this correction
also resulted in slight increases in the lung function risk estimates
as well. The exposure and risk estimates discussed in this notice
reflect the corrected estimates, and thus are slightly different than
the exposure and risk estimates cited in the January 31, 2007 Staff
Paper.\5\ In a March 26, 2007 letter (Henderson, 2007), CASAC offered
additional advice to the Administrator with regard to recommendations
and revisions to the primary and secondary O3 NAAQS.
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\5\ EPA plans to make available corrected versions of the final
Staff Paper and the human exposure and health risk assessment
technical support documents on or around July 16, 2007 on the EPA
web site listed in the Availability of Related Information section
of this notice.
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The schedule for completion of this review is governed by a consent
decree resolving a lawsuit filed in March 2003 by a group of plaintiffs
representing national environmental and public health organizations,
alleging that EPA had failed to complete the current review within the
period provided by statute.\6\ The modified consent decree that governs
this review, entered by the court on December 16, 2004, provides that
EPA sign for publication notices of proposed and final rulemaking
concerning its review of the O3 NAAQS no later than March
28, 2007 and December 19, 2007, respectively. This consent decree was
further modified in October 2006 to change these proposed and final
rulemaking dates to no later than May 30, 2007 and February 20, 2008,
respectively. These dates for signing the publication notices of
proposed and final rulemaking were further extended to no later than
June 20, 2007 and March 12, 2008, respectively.
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\6\ American Lung Association v. Whitman (No. 1:03CV00778,
D.D.C. 2003).
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This action presents the Administrator's proposed decisions on the
review of the current primary and secondary O3 standards.
Throughout this preamble a number of conclusions, findings, and
determinations proposed by the Administrator are noted. While
[[Page 37823]]
they identify the reasoning that supports this proposal, they are not
intended to be final or conclusive in nature. The EPA invites general,
specific, and/or technical comments on all issues involved with this
proposal, including all such proposed judgments, conclusions, findings,
and determinations.
II. Rationale for Proposed Decision on the Primary Standard
This section presents the rationale for the Administrator's
proposed decision to revise the existing 8-hour O3 primary
standard by lowering the level of the standard to within a range from
0.070 to 0.075 ppm, and to specify the standard to the nearest
thousandth ppm (i.e., to the nearest parts per billion). As discussed
more fully below, this rationale is based on a thorough review, in the
Criteria Document, of the latest scientific information on human health
effects associated with the presence of O3 in the ambient
air. This rationale also takes into account and is consistent with: (1)
Staff assessments of the most policy-relevant information in the
Criteria Document and staff analyses of air quality, human exposure,
and health risks, presented in the Staff Paper, upon which staff
recommendations for revisions to the primary O3 standard are
based; (2) CASAC advice and recommendations, as reflected in
discussions of drafts of the Criteria Document and Staff Paper at
public meetings, in separate written comments, and in CASAC's letters
to the Administrator; and (3) public comments received during the
development of these documents, either in connection with CASAC
meetings or separately.
In developing this rationale, EPA has drawn upon an integrative
synthesis of the entire body of evidence, published through early 2006,
on human health effects associated with the presence of O3
in the ambient air. As discussed below in section II.A, this body of
evidence addresses a broad range of health endpoints associated with
exposure to ambient levels of O3 (EPA, 2006a, chapter 8),
and includes over one hundred epidemiologic studies conducted in the
U.S., Canada, and many countries around the world.\7\ In considering
this evidence, EPA focuses on those health endpoints that have been
demonstrated to be caused by exposure to O3, or for which
the Criteria Document judges associations with O3 to be
causal, likely causal, or for which the evidence is highly suggestive
that O3 contributes to the reported effects. This rationale
also draws upon the results of quantitative exposure and risk
assessments, discussed below in section II.B. Evidence- and exposure/
risk-based considerations that form the basis for the Administrator's
proposed decisions on the adequacy of the current standard and on the
elements of the range of proposed alternative standards are discussed
below in sections II.C and II.D, respectively.
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\7\ In its assessment of the epidemiological evidence judged to
be most relevant to making decisions on the level of the
O3 primary standard, EPA has placed greater weight on
U.S. and Canadian epidemiologic studies, since studies conducted in
other countries may well reflect different demographic and air
pollution characteristics.
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Judgments made in the Criteria Document and Staff Paper about the
extent to which relationships between various health endpoints and
short-term exposures to ambient O3 are likely causal have
been informed by several factors. As discussed below in section II.A,
these factors include the nature of the evidence (i.e., controlled
human exposure, epidemiological, and/or toxicological studies) and the
weight of evidence, which takes into account such considerations as
biological plausibility, coherence of evidence, strength of
association, and consistency of evidence.
In assessing the health effects data base for O3, it is
clear that human studies provide the most directly applicable
information for determining causality because they are not limited by
the uncertainties of dosimetry differences and species sensitivity
differences, which would need to be addressed in extrapolating animal
toxicology data to human health effects. Controlled human exposure
studies provide data with the highest level of confidence since they
provide human effects data under closely monitored conditions and can
provide exposure-response relationships. Epidemiological data provide
evidence of associations between ambient O3 levels and more
serious acute and chronic health effects (e.g., hospital admissions and
mortality) that cannot be assessed in controlled human exposure
studies. For these studies the degree of uncertainty introduced by
confounding variables (e.g., other pollutants, temperature) and other
factors affects the level of confidence that the health effects being
investigated are attributable to O3 exposures, alone and in
combination with other copollutants.
In using a weight of evidence approach to inform judgments about
the degree of confidence that various health effects are likely to be
caused by exposure to O3, confidence increases as the number
of studies consistently reporting a particular health endpoint grows
and as other factors, such as biological plausibility and strength,
consistency, and coherence of evidence, increase. Conclusions regarding
biological plausibility, consistency, and coherence of evidence of
O3-related health effects are drawn from the integration of
epidemiological studies with mechanistic information from controlled
human exposure studies and animal toxicological studies. As discussed
below, this type of mechanistic linkage has been firmly established for
several respiratory endpoints (e.g., lung function decrements, lung
inflammation) but remains far more equivocal for cardiovascular
endpoints (e.g., cardiovascular-related hospital admissions). For
epidemiological studies, strength of association refers to the
magnitude of the association and its statistical strength, which
includes assessment of both effects estimate size and precision. In
general, when associations yield large relative risk estimates, it is
less likely that the association could be completely accounted for by a
potential confounder or some other bias. Consistency refers to the
persistent finding of an association between exposure and outcome in
multiple studies of adequate power in different persons, places,
circumstances and times. For example, the magnitude of effect estimates
is relatively consistent across recent studies showing association
between short-term, but not long-term, O3 exposure and
mortality.
Based on the information discussed below in sections II.A.1-II.A.3,
judgments concerning the extent to which relationships between various
health endpoints and ambient O3 exposures are likely causal
are summarized below in section II.A.3.c. These judgments reflect the
nature of the evidence and the overall weight of the evidence, and are
taken into consideration in the quantitative exposure and risk
assessments, discussed below in Section II.B.
To put judgments about health effects that have been demonstrated
to be caused by exposure to O3, or for which the Criteria
Document judges associations with O3 to be causal, likely
causal, or for which the evidence is highly suggestive that
O3 contributes to the reported effects into a broader public
health context, EPA has drawn upon the results of the quantitative
exposure and risk assessments. These assessments provide estimates of
the likelihood that individuals in particular population groups that
are at risk for various O3-related physiological health
effects would experience ``exposures of concern'' and specific health
endpoints
[[Page 37824]]
under varying air quality scenarios (e.g., just meeting the current or
alternative standards), as well as characterizations of the kind and
degree of uncertainties inherent in such estimates.
In this review, the term ``exposures of concern'' is defined as
personal exposures while at moderate or greater exertion to 8-hour
average ambient O3 levels at and above specific benchmark
levels which represent exposure levels at which O3-related
health effects are known or can reasonably be inferred to occur in some
individuals, as discussed below in section II.B.1.\8\ EPA emphasizes
that although the analysis of ``exposures of concern'' was conducted
using three discrete benchmark levels (i.e., 0.080, 0.070, and 0.060
ppm), the concept is more appropriately viewed as a continuum with
greater confidence and less uncertainty about the existence of health
effects at the upper end and less confidence and greater uncertainty as
one considers increasingly lower O3 exposure levels. EPA
recognizes that there is no sharp breakpoint within the continuum
ranging from at and above 0.080 ppm down to 0.060 ppm. In considering
the concept of exposures of concern, it is important to balance
concerns about the potential for health effects and their severity with
the increasing uncertainty associated with our understanding of the
likelihood of such effects at lower O3 levels.
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\8\ Exposures of concern were also considered in the last review
of the O3 NAAQS, and were judged by EPA to be an
important indicator of the public health impacts of those
O3-related effects for which information was too limited
to develop quantitative estimates of risk but which had been
observed in humans at and above the benchmark level of 0.08 ppm for
6-to 8-hour exposures * * * including increased nonspecific
bronchial responsiveness (for example, aggravation of asthma),
decreased pulmonary defense mechanisms (suggestive of increased
susceptibility to respiratory infection), and indicators of
pulmonary inflammation (related to potential aggravation of chronic
bronchitis or long-term damage to the lungs). (62 FR 38868)
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Within the context of this continuum, estimates of exposures of
concern at discrete benchmark levels provide some perspective on the
public health impacts of O3-related health effects that have
been demonstrated in human clinical and toxicological studies but
cannot be evaluated in quantitative risk assessments, such as lung
inflammation, increased airway responsiveness, and changes in host
defenses. They also help in understanding the extent to which such
impacts have the potential to be reduced by meeting the current and
alternative standards. These O3-related physiological
effects are plausibly linked to the increased morbidity seen in
epidemiological studies (e.g., as indicated by increased medication use
in asthmatics, school absences in all children, and emergency
department visits and hospital admissions in people with lung disease).
Estimates of the number of people likely to experience exposures of
concern cannot be directly translated into quantitative estimates of
the number of people likely to experience specific health effects,
since sufficient information to draw such comparisons is not
available--if such information were available, these health outcomes
would have been included in the quantitative risk assessment. Due to
individual variability in responsiveness, only a subset of individuals
who have exposures at and above a specific benchmark level can be
expected to experience such adverse health effects, and susceptible
subpopulations such as those with asthma are expected to be affected
more by such exposures than healthy individuals. The amount of weight
to place on the estimates of exposures of concern at any of these
benchmark levels depends in part on the weight of the scientific
evidence concerning health effects associated with O3
exposures at and above that benchmark level. It also depends on
judgments about the importance from a public health perspective of the
health effects that are known or can reasonably be inferred to occur as
a result of exposures at and above the benchmark level. Such public
health policy judgments are embodied in the NAAQS standard setting
criteria (i.e., standards that, in the judgment of the Administrator,
are requisite to protect public health with an adequate margin of
safety).
As discussed below in section II.B.2, the quantitative health risk
assessment conducted as part of this review includes estimates of risks
of lung function decrements in asthmatic and all school age children,
respiratory symptoms in asthmatic children, respiratory-related
hospital admissions, and non-accidental and cardiorespiratory-related
mortality associated with recent ambient O3 levels, as well
as risk reductions and remaining risks associated with just meeting the
current and various alternative O3 standards in a number of
example urban areas. There were two parts to this risk assessment: one
part was based on combining information from controlled human exposure
studies with modeled population exposure, and the other part was based
on combining information from community epidemiological studies with
either monitored or adjusted ambient concentrations levels. This
assessment not only provided estimates of the potential magnitude of
O3-related health effects, as well as a characterization of
the uncertainties and variability inherent in such estimates. This
assessment also provided insights into the distribution of risks and
patterns of risk reductions associated with meeting alternative
O3 standards.
As discussed below, a substantial amount of new research has been
conducted since the last review of the O3 NAAQS, with
important new information coming from epidemiologic studies as well as
from controlled human exposure, toxicological, and dosimetric studies.
The newly available research studies evaluated in the Criteria Document
and the exposure and risk assessments presented in the Staff Paper have
undergone intensive scrutiny through multiple layers of peer review and
many opportunities for public review and comment. While important
uncertainties remain in the qualitative and quantitative
characterizations of health effects attributable to exposure to ambient
O3, the review of this information has been extensive and
deliberate. In the judgment of the Administrator, this intensive
evaluation of the scientific evidence has provided an adequate basis
for regulatory decision making. This review also provides important
input to EPA's research plan for improving our future understanding of
the effects of ambient O3 at lower levels, especially in at-
risk population groups.
A. Health Effects Information
This section outlines key information contained in the Criteria
Document (chapters 4-8) and in the Staff Paper (chapter 3) on known or
potential effects on public health which may be expected from the
presence of O3 in ambient air. The information highlighted
here summarizes: (1) New information available on potential mechanisms
for health effects associated with exposure to O3; (2) the
nature of effects that have been associated directly with exposure to
O3 and indirectly with the presence of O3 in
ambient air; (3) an integrative interpretation of the evidence,
focusing on the biological plausibility and coherence of the evidence;
and (4) considerations in characterizing the public health impact of
O3, including the identification of ``at risk''
subpopulations.
The decision in the last review focused primarily on evidence from
short-term (e.g., 1 to 3 hours) and prolonged ( 6 to 8 hours)
controlled-exposure studies reporting lung function decrements,
respiratory symptoms, and respiratory inflammation in humans, as well
as epidemiology studies reporting excess
[[Page 37825]]
hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits for
respiratory causes. The Criteria Document prepared for this review
emphasizes a large number of epidemiological studies published since
the last review with these and additional health endpoints, including
the effects of acute (short-term and prolonged) and chronic exposures
to O3 on lung function decrements and enhanced respiratory
symptoms in asthmatic individuals, school absences, and premature
mortality. It also emphasizes important new information from
toxicology, dosimetry, and controlled human exposure studies.
Highlights of the evidence include:
(1) Two new controlled human-exposure studies are now available
that examine respiratory effects associated with prolonged
O3 exposures at levels below 0.080 ppm, which was the lowest
exposure level that had been examined in the last review.
(2) Numerous controlled human-exposure studies have examined
indicators of O3-induced inflammatory response in both the
upper respiratory tract (URT) and lower respiratory tract (LRT), while
other studies have examined changes in host defense capability
following O3 exposure of healthy young adults and increased
airway responsiveness to allergens in subjects with allergic asthma and
allergic rhinitis exposed to O3.
(3) Animal toxicology studies provide new information regarding
mechanisms of action, increased susceptibility to respiratory
infection, and the biological plausibility of acute effects and
chronic, irreversible respiratory damage.
(4) Numerous acute exposure epidemiological studies published
during the past decade offer added evidence of ambient O3-
related lung function decrements and respiratory symptoms in physically
active healthy subjects and asthmatic subjects, as well as evidence on
new health endpoints, such as the relationships between ambient
O3 concentrations and school absenteeism and between ambient
O3 and cardiac-related physiological endpoints.
(5) Several additional studies have been published over the last
decade examining the temporal associations between O3
exposures and emergency department visits for respiratory diseases and
on respiratory-related hospital admissions.
(6) A large number of newly available epidemiological studies have
examined the effects of acute exposure to PM and O3 on
mortality, notably including large multicity studies that provide much
more robust and credible information than was available in the last
review, as well as recent meta-analyses that have evaluated potential
sources of heterogeneity in O3-mortality associations.
1. Overview of Mechanisms
Evidence on possible mechanisms by which exposure to O3
may result in acute and chronic health effects is discussed in chapters
5 and 6 of the Criteria Document.\9\ Evidence from dosimetry,
toxicology, and human exposure studies has contributed to an
understanding of the mechanisms that help to explain the biological
plausibility and coherence of evidence for O3-induced
respiratory health effects reported in epidemiological studies. More
detailed information about the physiological mechanisms related to the
respiratory effects of short- and long-term exposure to O3
can be found in section II.A.3.b.i and II.A.3.b.iii, respectively. In
the past, however, little information was available to help explain
potential biological mechanisms which linked O3 exposure to
premature mortality or cardiovascular effects. As discussed more fully
in section II.A.3.b.ii below, since the last review an emerging body of
animal toxicology and human clinical evidence is beginning to suggest
mechanisms that may mediate acute O3 cardiovascular effects.
While much is known about mechanisms that play a role in O3-
related respiratory effects, additional research is needed to more
clearly understand the role that O3 may have in contributing
to cardiovascular effects.
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\9\ While most of the available evidence addresses mechanisms
for O3, O3 clearly serves as an indicator for
the total photochemical oxidant mixture found in the ambient air.
Some effects may be caused by one or more components in the overall
pollutant mix, either separately or in combination with
O3.
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With regard to the mechanisms related to short-term respiratory
effects, scientific evidence discussed in the Criteria Document
(section 5.2) indicates that reactions of O3 with lipids and
antioxidants in the epithelial lining fluid and the epithelial cell
membranes of the lung can be the initial step in mediating deleterious
health effects of O3. This initial step activates a cascade
of events that lead to oxidative stress, injury, inflammation, airway
epithelial damage and increased alveolar permeability to vascular
fluids. Inflammation can be accompanied by increased airway
responsiveness, which is an increased bronchoconstrictive response to
airway irritants and allergens. Continued respiratory inflammation also
can alter the ability to respond to infectious agents, allergens and
toxins. Acute inflammatory responses to O3 in some healthy
people are well documented, and precursors to lung injury can become
apparent within 3 hours after exposure in humans. Repeated respiratory
inflammation can lead to a chronic inflammatory state with altered lung
structure and lung function and may lead to chronic respiratory
diseases such as fibrosis and emphysema (EPA, 2006a, section 8.6.2).
The severity of symptoms and magnitude of response to acute exposures
depend on inhaled dose, as well as individual susceptibility to
O3, as discussed below. At the same O3 dose,
individuals who are more susceptible to O3 will have a
larger response than those who are less susceptible; among individuals
with similar susceptibility, those who receive a larger dose will have
a larger response to O3.
The inhaled dose is the product of O3 concentration (C),
minute ventilation or ventilation rate, and duration of exposure (T),
or (C x ventilation rate x T). A large body of data regarding the
interdependent effect of these components of inhaled dose on pulmonary
responses was assessed in the 1986 and 1996 O3 Criteria
Documents. In an attempt to describe O3 dose-response
characteristics, acute responses were modeled as a function of total
inhaled O3 dose which was generally found to be a better
predictor of response than O3 concentration, ventilation
rate, or duration of exposure, alone, or as a combination of any two of
these factors (EPA 2006a, section 6.2). Predicted O3-induced
decrements in lung function have been shown to be a function of
exposure concentration, duration and exercise level for healthy, young
adults (McDonnell et al., 1997). A meta-analysis of 21 studies (Mudway
and Kelly, 2004) showed that markers of inflammation and increased
cellular permeability in healthy subjects are associated with total
O3 dose.
The Criteria Document summarizes information on potentially
susceptible and vulnerable groups in section 8.7. As described there,
the term susceptibility refers to innate (e.g., genetic or
developmental) or acquired (e.g., personal risk factors, age) factors
that make individuals more likely to experience effects with exposure
to pollutants. A number of population groups have been identified as
potentially susceptible to health effects as a result of O3
exposure, including people with existing lung diseases, including
asthma, children and older adults, and people who have larger than
normal lung function responses that may be due to genetic
susceptibility. In addition, some population groups have been
identified as having increased
[[Page 37826