Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal Affairs; Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Disclosure and Reporting Requirements; Risk-Based Capital Requirements, 77247-77262 [E6-21831]
Download as PDF
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
PART 203—HOME MORTGAGE
DISCLOSURE (REGULATION C)
1. The authority citation for part 203
continues to read as follows:
I
Authority: 12 U.S.C. 2801–2810.
2. In Supplement I to part 203, under
section 203.2 Definitions, 2(e) Financial
Institution, paragraph 2. is revised.
I
Supplement I to Part 203—Staff
Commentary
*
*
§ 203.2
*
*
*
Definitions.
2(e) Financial Institution
*
*
*
*
*
2. Adjustment of exemption threshold
for depository institutions. For data
collection in 2007, the asset-size
exemption threshold is $36 million.
Depository institutions with assets at or
below $36 million as of December 31,
2006 are exempt from collecting data for
2007.
*
*
*
*
*
By order of the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, acting through the
Director of the Division of Consumer and
Community Affairs under delegated
authority, December 20, 2006.
Jennifer J. Johnson,
Secretary of the Board.
[FR Doc. E6–22027 Filed 12–22–06; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6210–01–P
FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION
12 CFR Parts 652 and 655
RIN 3052–AC17
Federal Agricultural Mortgage
Corporation Funding and Fiscal
Affairs; Federal Agricultural Mortgage
Corporation Disclosure and Reporting
Requirements; Risk-Based Capital
Requirements
Farm Credit Administration.
ACTION: Final rule.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
AGENCY:
SUMMARY: The Farm Credit
Administration (FCA, Agency, we) is
amending regulations governing the
Federal Agricultural Mortgage
Corporation (Farmer Mac or the
Corporation) risk-based capital stress
test (RBCST or model). We are making
these amendments in response to
changing financial markets, new
business practices and the evolution of
the loan portfolio at Farmer Mac, as well
as continued development of industry
best practices among leading financial
institutions. The rule modifies
regulations in 12 CFR part 652, subpart
B. The rule is intended to more
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
accurately reflect risk in the model in
order to improve the model’s output—
Farmer Mac’s regulatory minimum riskbased capital level. The rule also
clarifies Farmer Mac’s reporting
requirements in § 655.50(c).
DATES: Effective Date: This regulation
will be effective the later of 30 days after
publication in the Federal Register
during which time either or both Houses
of Congress are in session, or March 31,
2007. We will publish a notice of the
effective date in the Federal Register.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Joseph T. Connor, Associate Director for
Policy and Analysis, Office of
Secondary Market Oversight, Farm
Credit Administration, McLean, VA
22102–5090, (703) 883–4280, TTY
(703) 883–4434;
or
Rebecca S. Orlich, Senior Counsel,
Office of the General Counsel, Farm
Credit Administration, McLean, VA
22102–5090, (703) 883–4020, TTY
(703) 883–4020.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Purpose
The purpose of this rule is to revise
the risk-based capital (RBC) regulations
that apply to Farmer Mac. Our proposed
rule was published in the Federal
Register on November 17, 2005.1 The
final rule makes the following changes
to the RBCST:
1. Establishes specific proxy values
for loans with missing or anomalous or
ambiguous data. In the final rule, the
Debt-to-Assets ratio (DA) proxy value is
0.50, the Loan-to-Value ratio (LTV)
remains at 0.70, and the Debt Service
Coverage ratio (DSC) is 1.25.
2. Requires the application of known
data on Long-term Standby Purchase
Commitment (Standby) loans in the
model.
3. Revises the estimate of future years’
miscellaneous income to the annualized
3-year weighted average of the most
recent quarterly miscellaneous income
rate as a fraction of the current quarter’s
sum of cash, investments, guaranteed
securities, and loans held for
investment.
4. Revises the treatment of gain on
sale of agricultural mortgage-backed
securities (AMBS) by applying the 3year gain rate factor to the most recent
4 quarters of AMBS sales.
5. Revises the method used to
estimate operating expenses to a
moving-average of operating expenses as
a percent of non-program assets and on1 79 FR 69692. See the preamble to our proposed
rule for a full discussion of our proposed changes.
PO 00000
Frm 00003
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
77247
and off-balance sheet program
investments.
The proposed rule also included
provisions related to improved
estimates of the carrying costs of
troubled loans by revising assumptions
regarding Loan Loss Resolution Timing
(LLRT), and related to adding a
component to reflect counterparty risk.
These two items are not included in the
final rule. The Agency plans to address
these issues in a future rulemaking.
In developing this rule, we considered
the comments and recommendations
pertaining to the RBCST in the
Government Accountability Office
(GAO) report entitled, ‘‘Farmer Mac:
Some Progress Made, but Greater
Attention to Risk Management, Mission,
and Corporate Governance is Needed.’’ 2
We also met with Farmer Mac
representatives on several occasions
prior to the development of the
proposed rule and discussed possible
Agency revisions to the RBCST.
II. Background
Our analysis of the RBCST has
identified a need to update the model in
response to changing financial markets,
new business practices and the
evolution of the loan portfolio at Farmer
Mac, as well as continued development
of industry best practices among leading
financial institutions. Our goal is to
ensure that the RBCST reflects changes
in the Corporation’s business structure
and loan portfolio that have occurred
since the model was originally
developed by FCA, while complying
with the statutory requirements and
constraints on the model’s design.
Our proposed rule was published in
the Federal Register on November 17,
2005, and provided for a 90-day
comment period to end on February 15,
2006. We later extended and reopened
the comment period, which ended on
May 17, 2006.3
III. Comments
We received seven comment letters on
the proposed rule from the following:
Farmer Mac, the Farm Credit Bank of
Texas (FCBT), AgFirst Farm Credit Bank
(AgFirst), U.S. AgBank FCB (U.S.
AgBank), Sacramento Valley Farm
Credit (Sac Valley), First Dakota
National Bank (Dakota Mac), and AgStar
2 United States General Accounting Office,
Farmer Mac: Some Progress Made, but Greater
Attention to Risk Management, Mission, and
Corporate Governance is Needed, GAO–04–116
(2003). At the time of the report’s publication, the
GAO was known as the General Accounting Office.
3 In response to requests from commenters, we
extended the original comment period to April 17,
2006 (71 FR 7446, Feb. 13, 2006), and subsequently
reopened the comment period until May 17, 2006
(71 FR 24613, Apr. 26, 2006).
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77248
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Financial Services, ACA (AgStar).4 In
general, the commenters agreed with
FCA’s objective to revise the RBCST to
reflect Farmer Mac’s actual business
risks more accurately but asserted that
our proposal would not achieve that
objective. The commenters contended
that the proposed changes would result
in a risk-based capital requirement that
is higher than it should be and would
drive up the cost of doing business with
Farmer Mac. Specific comments were
primarily focused on two changes: (1)
The proposed data proxy values for
loans with missing data; and (2) the
method of implementing the carrying
cost of nonperforming loans. The latter
provision is not included in this final
rule.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
IV. Summary of the Provisions of the
Final Rule and FCA’s Responses to
Comments
We begin by summarizing and
responding to general comments on the
proposed rule and then provide a
summary of specific comments on the
proposed rule and FCA’s responses to
the comments.
A. General Comments
FCBT stated that its chief concern was
that certain proposed changes appear to
have been selected primarily for the
purpose of increasing the risk-based
capital requirement. FCBT and each of
the other commenters criticized the
proposed rule as not being based on
Farmer Mac’s actual underwriting
practices and loss experience.
U.S. AgBank called the proposed
regulation overly prescriptive and stated
that it would be better for FCA to direct
Farmer Mac to create an RBCST
calculation process that complies with
the statute, than to continue the FCAdesigned risk-based capital model. U.S.
AgBank also stressed the importance of
a model that is statistically valid and
not biased toward overly conservative
assumptions, thereby avoiding artificial
results that could result in unintended
consequences. It asserted that such
consequences could include the
compromising of sound governance
practices at Farmer Mac and of
management’s accountability to its
shareholders. Finally, U.S. AgBank said
that the model is too inflexible given the
dynamic nature of agricultural finance
and Farmer Mac’s lines of business that
include unique risk factors such as parttime farm loans.
Sac Valley, FCBT, and AgFirst also
provided their general support for the
comments submitted by Farmer Mac.
4 All of the commenters except Dakota Mac are
Farm Credit institutions.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
Sac Valley stated its concurrence with
FCA’s objective of estimating risk-based
capital in a way that reflects the risks of
Farmer Mac’s business and incorporates
as much as possible best business
practices.
B. Proxy Data Values for Loans With
Missing or Anomalous Loan Origination
Data and for Standby Loans—Appendix
A, Section 4.1 d.
1. FCA’s Proposal
As noted in the preamble to the
proposed rule, the RBCST model was
designed to use loan origination data—
specifically the loan amount, DA, LTV,
and DSC to estimate the lifetime
probability of default on the loans,
which is then seasoned to reflect the
current age of the loan. At the time the
model was designed, Farmer Mac had
complete origination data for most loans
in its portfolio. In 1998, it had complete
origination data on approximately 88
percent of Cash Window loans,
excluding pre-1996 loans. For the
remaining loans, state-level average loss
rates estimated from the loans with
complete data were applied to loans
where data were missing.
Today, a significant proportion of
Farmer Mac’s current portfolio has
incomplete or anomalous loan
origination data, or has data that are not
used in the model. Some data are
missing because Farmer Mac has several
programs whose underwriting standards
do not require the collection of such
data. These programs include part-time
farm, seasoned and fast-track loans. In
addition, the model treats unseasoned
Standby loans for which loan
origination data are available as if the
loan data were missing. This means
that, as of June 30, 2006, complete loan
origination data were available, and
used in the RBCST, on well under half
of Farmer Mac’s loan portfolio,
excluding pre-1996 loans. We proposed
to revise this part of the model to
replace the application of state-level
loss estimates with the application of
specified proxy values to all loans with
missing or anomalous data, and to use
known data for unseasoned Standby
loans when such data are known. The
proxy values we proposed were a DA
ratio of 0.60, an LTV ratio of 0.70, and
a DSC ratio of 1.20. As we explained in
the preamble to the proposed rule, we
chose conservative proxy values directly
related to Farmer Mac’s underwriting
standards on the ground that using
conservative proxy data best preserves
the theoretical and structural integrity of
the RBCST.
PO 00000
Frm 00004
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
2. Comments
Farmer Mac agreed that the use of
proxy values could be appropriate in
these circumstances. It asserted,
however, that the proposed proxy
values are flawed because they are
‘‘inconsistent with Farmer Mac’s
underwriting standards for the vast
majority of full-time farm loans, as well
as with Farmer Mac’s own risk exposure
in actual practice’’; that they are
‘‘arbitrary, unsupported by any reasoned
methodology, and based on’’ an
incorrect interpretation of the Act; that
they are ‘‘unacceptable because they do
not correlate strongly, or even
adequately, to Farmer Mac’s actual core
business and underwriting standards’’;
and that it knows of no requirement in
the Act that the loans ‘‘should, unto
themselves, represent a worst-case
scenario for the abuse of Farmer Mac
underwriting discretion.’’ Farmer Mac
asserted that, ‘‘if there is available
information that would more closely
approximate Farmer Mac’s actual book
of business, it should be utilized, as
opposed to unrelated conservative
proxy values.’’ Farmer Mac raised a
concern that the proposed proxy values
‘‘likely will’’ distort or misrepresent the
risks of its business and ‘‘create
unintended incentives for or against
particular classes of loans.’’
Farmer Mac recommended that the
proxy values be based instead on its
historical loan data, using a statistical
process for the imputation of missing
data, or alternatively selecting cutoff
percentiles. Farmer Mac described
possible methodologies and stated its
view that there was no reason to depart
from the model’s current method, which
it characterized as most similar to
treatment of data that are ‘‘Missing
Completely At Random,’’ absent
‘‘evidence that [the current method] is
untenable.’’ Farmer Mac also contended
that two of the proxy values, DA and
DSC, are not relevant to its underwriting
standards for part-time farm loans and
offered to work with FCA to develop an
appropriate RBCST submodel for those
loans.
The other commenters submitted
comments that were very much in line
with Farmer Mac’s. They asserted that:
• The proxy values appear arbitrary
and not supported in the preamble to
the proposed rule by any defined
methodology or evidence;
• The proxy values are not
representative of the commenters’ loan
experience with Farmer Mac or with
Farmer Mac’s portfolio (as understood
by the commenters) and are not
representative of Farmer Mac’s
underwriting standards; and
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
• The proposal, by requiring Farmer
Mac to hold capital in excess of actual
risk, could cause Farmer Mac to
increase fees and could harm the
secondary agricultural loan market and
the commenters’ business with Farmer
Mac.
The commenters recommended
basing the proxy values on Farmer Mac
historical loan data and using a ‘‘well
defined methodology’’ to determine the
values. In the section below, we address
specific comments of Farmer Mac and
other commenters.
3. Final Rule
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
In the final rule, we establish proxy
values for the DA, LTV, and DSC ratios
that are related to Farmer Mac’s
underwriting standards, but we have
moderated them somewhat from the
proposed rule. In the final rule, the DA
ratio proxy value is 0.50, down from
0.60 in the proposed rule; the LTV ratio
remains at 0.70, the same value as in the
proposed rule; and the DSC ratio is 1.25,
up from 1.20 in the proposed rule. Upon
further review and consideration of the
ranges of Farmer Mac’s underwriting
standards and the relative proportions
of the various loan types in the
portfolio, we have decided that these
values are more appropriate to the
underwriting standards for the loan
types that make up the preponderance
of Farmer Mac’s portfolio. In our
judgment, these proxy values are
appropriate for application to loan
programs that have different
underwriting standards but account for
a smaller proportion of the portfolio. We
believe these values are still sufficiently
conservative to maintain the theoretical
integrity of the model while avoiding
unintended consequences related to
inappropriate incentives to underwrite
more aggressively in reduceddocumentation loan programs. We note
that, if the relative proportions of
various loan types with differing
underwriting standards change over
time, the Agency may consider further
adjustment to the proxy values.
We disagree with many of the
comments we received. To begin with,
we do not believe our proposal is based
on an incorrect interpretation of the Act
or that it imposes ‘‘worst-case’’ proxy
values. The Act provides FCA with
significant discretion in establishing the
RBCST. Section 8.32 of the Act states
that the FCA (through the Director of the
5 12
U.S.C. 2279bb–1(b)(1)(A).
note that the current version of the RBC
model, through its application of average loss rates
by state to loans with missing data, is similar to the
approach recommended in the comment. The
insufficiency of this approach and the significant
6 We
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
77249
Office of Secondary Market Oversight
(OSMO)) must, among other things,
‘‘take into account appropriate
distinctions based on various types of
agricultural mortgage products, varying
terms of Treasury obligations, and any
other factors the Director considers
appropriate * * *.’’ 5 The model uses,
and will continue to use, Farmer Mac’s
‘‘actual book of business’’ as represented
by actual data. The incompleteness or
non-use of loan origination data for
what is now a significant portion of
Farmer Mac’s portfolio is an important
factor in evaluating the reliability of the
RBCST output. The Agency must decide
how best to treat the loans whose data
are not in the model. We believe the
model’s current treatment is no longer
adequate to represent loan risk for such
a large portion of the portfolio. Our
choice of conservative proxy values
takes into consideration not only the
role of the FCA to provide for the
general supervision of the safe and
sound performance of Farmer Mac
under section 8.11(a) of the Act, but also
Farmer Mac’s actual loan data and
practices. We do not believe the proxy
values represent a ‘‘worst-case
scenario.’’ In setting the proxy values,
we considered Farmer Mac’s actual
practice of accepting loans with ratios
that are riskier than those permitted
under its underwriting standards when
the loan has compensating strengths in
other ratios or risk indicators. A ‘‘worstcase’’ approach would have yielded
proxy values much higher than the
proposed DA and LTV and much lower
than the DSC.
We considered Farmer Mac’s
suggestion to substitute values based on
Farmer Mac’s historical loan data for the
missing data.6 In our judgment, the
historical data are not necessarily
representative of the portion of the
portfolio that is missing data, and they
are not necessarily representative of
Farmer Mac’s future underwriting
practices on loans for which they will
not collect complete data. We do not
agree with the underlying assumption of
the comments that the historical loan
data on full-time farm loans would
correlate strongly with the loans missing
data. In a circumstance where we
cannot know the predictive value of the
historical loan data, we do not agree that
a valid statistical methodology is
available to set the proxy levels.
Moreover, as we have noted, the loans
for which loan origination data are
complete now represent a much smaller
proportion of Farmer Mac’s loan
portfolio. Therefore, we concluded that
using the historical data is not the best
means to determine appropriate proxy
values.
A statistical approach suggested by
Farmer Mac is the SAS Proc MI multiple
imputation (MI) procedure for
developing consistent estimates of
confidence limits around the mean of
each individual underwriting variable
for loans for which data existed. The
implication is that these estimates
would be appropriate for use as proxies
in cases where the underwriting data
were absent in individual loans. The
specific process demonstrated assumes
that the underwriting data are
multivariate normal and that the
missing elements may depend on the
remaining observed variables, but not
on their own values. The resampling
method generates consistent estimates
of the variances from which confidence
limits around the statistics can be
constructed.
The MI methods cited in the comment
are most often used in efforts to avoid
deletion of observations in data sets
with partially missing data, but for
which portions of the covariate data sets
exist.7 The use of no additional
independent variables (e.g., age, loan
size) which are observable across loans
both with and without underwriting
data implies: (i) No conditioning on
additional variables was considered,
and (ii) an assumption of equivalent
distributions between those missing
data and those not missing data.
We do not agree that the Farmer Macsuggested method provides a reasonable
method for identifying candidate proxy
values for numerous reasons. First, we
did not intend that the proxies represent
mean values of the underwriting data in
cases where the data exist, or as
conditioned by the pattern of missing
data from cases missing only a portion
of the underwriting variables. We do not
believe that this approach is reasonable
given the stark differences in other
characteristics of the subset of loans that
do and do not have complete
underwriting data. To emphasize this
point, Table 1 is provided which
summarizes key attributes of the loans
grouped by whether the loan
observation received at least one proxy
value due to missing or anomalous data.
proportion of loans that have incomplete data are,
in fact, the conditions that prompted the
development of this revision to the RBCST.
7 For example, if multiple health factors/
indicators individually contribute to incidence rates
of a serious health problem, but not all variables are
observed or collected on all individuals, MI
procedures allow the use of the data with
incomplete measures across the independent
variables rather than excluding entire observations
that are missing only portions of their independent
variables.
PO 00000
Frm 00005
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77250
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE 1
Data
No proxy
data
At least 1
proxy
Combined
Average Age (in years) ............................................................................................................................
Average Current Balance ........................................................................................................................
Average Original Balance ........................................................................................................................
Number of Loans .....................................................................................................................................
5.83
$433,568
$570,119
7,269
11.83
$164,542
$267,039
9,074
9.16
$284,199
$401,842
16,343
As shown in the table, the loans
missing data are considerably older
(rendering the cases where a portion of
the underwriting data does exist to be
less likely to be reliable), have much
smaller original balances, and have
correspondingly lower current balances.
Standard tests of the equivalence of
means strongly reject the hypothesis of
equivalence of the means between the
two groups of loans by age, original size,
or current balance (p¥value = 0.0000,
all cases).
As an alternative to using an
imputation methodology, Farmer Mac
also suggested that percentile cutoffs of
actual ratios in its portfolio of
unseasoned standard full-time farm
loans should be considered as an
acceptable method to derive proxies,
though less appropriate (in their view)
than imputation of mean values. Farmer
Mac asserted that the proposed proxy
levels are statistical outliers.8 In general,
we have the same concern here as with
the multiple imputation approach
regarding basing proxy values on
historical measurements of a potentially
uncorrelated portfolio. The
appropriateness of using a cutoff
percentile depends on the congruence
in the data between the set missing
underwriting data and those with data.
Moreover, the distribution around a
given ‘‘consistent’’ percentile choice is
not necessarily comparable across the
three underwriting variables (i.e., there
may be only a small ‘‘distance’’ between
the 95th percentile and the maximum
D/A in the available data, while there is
a large ‘‘distance’’ from the 95th
percentile of the order-adjusted DSC to
the most undesirable one in the data
set).9
We would also note that average loss
rates generated by the RBCST’s Credit
Loss Module (CLM) are not especially
sensitive to the level of the proxy
values. To illustrate this point, we
provide the following data tables. Table
2A sets forth the average loss rates
generated by the CLM as of June 30,
2006, under various LTV and DA proxy
value combinations, keeping DSC
constant at 1.25. The table indicates that
the average loss rate across all
combinations presented varies within a
range of 27 basis points. Under the final
rule’s proxy values (0.50, 0.70, and 1.25,
for DA, LTV, and DSC proxies,
respectively) the table shows that at
June 30, 2006 the average loss rate
would have been 3.782 percent.
TABLE 2A
DSC proxy = 1.25
LTV proxies
DA Proxies ...................................................................................
Table 2B presents the calculated
average loss rate across combinations of
..................
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.60
3.694%
3.751%
3.811%
3.874%
DCS and DA ratios, holding LTV
constant. Under these combinations, the
0.65
3.706%
3.764%
3.824%
3.888%
0.70
3.724%
3.782%
3.843%
3.907%
0.75
3.748%
3.807%
3.869%
3.934%
0.80
3.783%
3.842%
3.905%
3.966%
average loss rate varies within a range
of 16 basis points.
TABLE 2B
LTV proxy = 0.70
DSC proxies
DA Proxies ...................................................................................
..................
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
1.15
3.736%
3.794%
3.856%
3.921%
1.20
3.730%
3.788%
3.849%
3.914%
1.25
3.724%
3.782%
3.843%
3.907%
1.30
3.718%
3.775%
3.836%
3.900%
1.35
3.712%
3.769%
3.830%
3.894%
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
Table 2C presents the variation in the
calculated average loss rate across
combinations of DCS and LTV ratios,
holding DA constant at the level in the
final rule. Under these combinations,
the average loss rate varies within a
range of just 3 basis points.
8 The proposed DA proxy equated to the 95th
percentile of Farmer Mac’s portfolio of unseasoned
full-time farm loans, the proposed LTV proxy
equated to some percentile in excess of the 90th
percentile, and the proposed DSC proxy equated to
some percentile in excess of the 5th percentile (or,
for greater ease of comparison, its inverse—the 95th
percentile). In the final rule, the proxy values
would equate to the 91st, 90th, and 9th percentiles
respectively, as of June 30, 2006. Although we did
not base our proxy values on the percentile cutoffs,
we believe the relationships of those values to the
percentile cutoffs is appropriate.
9 Farmer Mac contends that the proposed proxies
represent outliers in the data. However, we note
that its comment includes a table showing that the
proxy values indicated by the 95th percentiles in
the set of unseasoned Full-time Farm loans all
exceed Farmer Mac’s underwriting limits for such
loans. Thus, the proxy values would not appear to
be unreasonably conservative.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
PO 00000
Frm 00006
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
77251
TABLE 2C
DA proxy = 0.50
DSC proxies
LTV proxies ..................................................................................
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
Rather than focusing on the
distribution of underwriting ratios in
the existing loan data sets through time,
we instead chose proxy values that are
near the conservative limits of the range
of values that are acceptable to Farmer
Mac under its underwriting standards
for different types of loans (including,
but not limited to, full-time farm loans).
In addition, we took into consideration
that Farmer Mac can accept
underwriting ratios that exceed the
stated ranges of its underwriting
standards.10 We intended that the proxy
values be sufficiently conservative to
avoid underestimating the risk in the
portfolio, but not at the extremes of
Farmer Mac’s underwriting standards.
This approach recognizes that Farmer
Mac would be unlikely to underwrite
loans at its underwriting limits in each
ratio category. These values are
acceptable to Farmer Mac for
underwriting purposes, as demonstrated
by both its policies and its practices.
Therefore, we believe that the proxy
values are realistic as well as
conservative and reflect Farmer Mac’s
actual business practices.
Farmer Mac’s comment that the
proposed proxy values ‘‘likely will’’
distort or misrepresent the risks of its
business, as well as create unintended
incentives for or against particular
classes of loans, did not make clear
exactly what unintended incentives or
what classes of loans Farmer Mac had
in mind. We would agree that, on an
individual loan basis, using proxy data
will ‘‘misrepresent’’ the loan to the
extent that the proxy values understate
or overstate the level of actual risk in
the loan. The problem of the likely
inexactitude in the calculation is
necessitated by, and a direct result of,
the uncertainty created by the missing
data. This uncertainty is itself one
component of the risk in Farmer Mac’s
loan portfolio. We believe that applying
conservative proxy values is a way to
consider adequately the actual risk in
the loan as well as the added risk
associated with this uncertainty. With
10 We note Farmer Mac’s actual practice of
accepting loans with ratios that are outside of the
ranges, as permitted under its underwriting
standards when the loan has compensating
strengths in other ratios or risk indicators.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
..................
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
1.15
3.763%
3.776%
3.794%
3.820%
respect to unintended incentives, it is
true that, however we decide to treat
loans with missing data—for example, if
we were to apply proxy values based on
historical loan data or related to
underwriting standards, or even if we
entirely removed loans with missing
data from the model—we could create
incentives for Farmer Mac and its
business partners to expand or contract
one or more lines of business or to
modify program requirements. Indeed,
in the model’s current treatment of
loans with missing data, one could
argue that using state-level loss
estimates may have been a disincentive
for Farmer Mac to collect loan
origination data in some cases. We
believe that the proxy values in the final
rule will minimize any potential
incentive not to collect loan origination
data on the great majority of loans,
without providing inappropriate
incentives to continue or terminate
worthy and needed loan products.
As we described above, Farmer Mac
offered to work with FCA to develop an
appropriate RBCST submodel for parttime farm loans since, in Farmer Mac’s
stated view, the DA and DSC ratios are
‘‘not relevant’’ to its underwriting
standards for such loans.11 FCA
weighed the added complexity of a
submodel against potential benefits in
improved accuracy of the RBC model’s
output, as well as the potential
disincentive that might be created to
underwrite part-time farm business in
the absence of such a submodel. By our
calculation of Farmer Mac-submitted
data, the part-time farm loan volume is
a very small percentage of the total
modeled portfolio as of June 30, 2006.
We do not consider this amount to be
substantial and, therefore, do not see a
compelling reason to add complexity to
the model by adding a submodel at this
time. We could consider a submodel in
the future if the Corporation’s part-time
farm loan volume grows. We believe
that the selected proxy data values
appropriately balance the risk of a
disincentive to underwrite part-time
11 Notwithstanding Farmer Mac’s assertion that
the DA and DSC ratios are not relevant, not all parttime farm loans are missing those data in Farmer
Mac’s submission of the RBCST as of June 30, 2006.
PO 00000
Frm 00007
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
1.20
3.757%
3.770%
3.788%
3.814%
1.25
3.751%
3.764%
3.782%
3.807%
1.30
3.745%
3.757%
3.775%
3.801%
1.35
3.739%
3.751%
3.769%
3.795%
loans with the risk of an inappropriate
incentive to underwrite more loans of
this type with risk characteristics that
exceed those of the proxy values.
AgStar commented specifically that
the proxy values would reflect an
especially unrealistic risk estimate on
seasoned loans. We disagree with the
comment because the model’s loan
seasoning adjustment occurs after loss
rates are estimated. Therefore, the risk
in seasoned loans in Farmer Mac’s
portfolio would continue to be adjusted
downward in accordance with Section
2.2 of Appendix A. We expect the
impact of the seasoning adjustment to
be similar in magnitude in the revised
RBCST model regardless of whether the
proxy values are applied. The reason is
that the model recognizes substantial
risk mitigation through its seasoning
adjustment component. However, we
note that when a loan’s origination date
is among the missing data, and therefore
age is not determinable, the final rule
will substitute the ‘‘cut off’’ date for the
origination date. In such cases, if a loan
were several years old and only recently
taken into Farmer Mac’s portfolio, the
risk-mitigation of its true age could not
be recognized. We believe our approach
recognizes the risk created when a
loan’s origination date is not collected
in a low-documentation loan program.
AgStar also noted that recent
unseasoned loans placed in the Standby
program are better quality than the
proxy values would estimate. While
AgStar may have good information to
substantiate this claim, if these loan
records do not contain that information,
the Agency must address the resulting
uncertainty (i.e., risk). If a primary
lender consistently has such
information on Standby loans, it could
benefit from including these data in the
loan data submitted under the Standby
program regardless of whether such data
are required under the Standby
program.
C. Calculation of Miscellaneous Income
and Gain on Sale of AMBS—Appendix
A, Section 4.2(3)
Farmer Mac commented that more
accurate moving average calculations of
miscellaneous income and gain on sale
of AMBS would be achieved by first
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77252
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
calculating individual ratios,
annualizing the ratios and then
computing the moving average over the
appropriate time horizon. We do not
agree that Farmer Mac’s suggested
approach would be more accurate. Our
approach provides a volume-weighted
measure of miscellaneous income that is
more accurate and generally less
sensitive to variations in asset volumes
than the Farmer Mac-suggested
approach. Under Farmer Mac’s
suggested approach, each individual
observation has the same weight
regardless of the level of the relevant
assets. The weighted average approach
to AMBS avoids counting each
undefined (0/0) ratio as an individual
observation which would skew the
average.
Similarly, in the case of gain on sale
of AMBS, we believe our approach to
generating the weighted average rate of
gain is less potentially volatile than the
Farmer Mac-suggested approach.
Moreover, Farmer Mac’s suggestion that
the calculated amount be annualized
would be incorrectly applied in this
case, regardless of the method adopted,
because the calculated rate is as
applicable and appropriate on an annual
basis as it is on a quarterly basis. To
multiply the calculated rate by 4 would
overstate the rate of gain.
D. Operating Expense Regression
Equation—Appendix A, Section 4.2(3)
In the RBCST’s operating expense
regression equation, we proposed a
change that would remove the dummy
variable from the equation and include
multiple variables to account for
different business activities.
Farmer Mac agreed in principle with
the extension of the independent
variables in the regression and the
elimination of the dummy variable but
argued that the intent of the proposed
regression was to provide marginal
impacts of different activities to the
operating expenses. It observed that the
individual coefficient signs are not
entirely consistent with expected
relationships and offered two alternative
proposals to enable projections of their
operating expenses to be applied within
the model. The first alternative
proposed involves calculation of a
simple average of recent operating
expenses applied as a constant in the
model. They refer to this approach as
being analogous to that used to estimate
MI rates and gains on AMBS rates.
The second approach offered by
Farmer Mac involves a regression
framework across similar expense
categories as proposed by us, but
expresses these in cost share form. Their
proposed approach contains similar
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
drawbacks as those Farmer Mac raised
regarding FCA’s proposed approach and
suffers specific problems in expressing
logarithms of values which may be zero
at times.
In light of the recent evolution of their
cost structures and changing relative
scales of their program activities, we
agree with the comment that an
approach to accurately reflect their cost
structures can be obtained from recent
data and applied forward within the
existing constructs of the model. Farmer
Mac proposes the use of average
expenses to reflect future experiences.
We note that in periods of increasing
costs, the recent average will have a
negative bias, and during periods of
decreasing costs, that there will be a
positive bias. We accept the moving
average application of expenses and
agree that it is consistent with the spirit
of the calculations of the rates for
miscellaneous income and gains on
sales of AMBSs. In specific application,
we require that the operating expense
rate be calculated as the average of
operating expense rates calculated as
the annualized expenses as shares of the
sum of on-balance sheet assets and offbalance sheet program activities over
the most recent 4 quarters inclusive of
the current submission date. This
average rate is applied to the current
quarter’s on-balance sheet assets and
off-balance sheet program activities.
That share will then be applied forward
to the balances of the same categories
throughout the 10-year period of the
RBCST model.
E. Change to Disclosure Regulations
We proposed to clarify § 655.50(c) to
state that Farmer Mac must provide FCA
with copies of its substantive
correspondence with the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC). We
received no comments on this proposal
and adopt it without change in the final
rule.
V. Issues Not Addressed in Final Rule
A. Carrying Costs of Troubled Loans—
Appendix A, Section 4.2(3)
We proposed to improve estimates of
carrying costs of troubled loans by
revising the Loan Loss Resolution
Timing to reflect that problem loans
may take longer than the 1 year assumed
in the existing model’s loss-severity
rate. Farmer Mac commented that it
agreed with aspects of the proposed
change but had concerns about some of
the modifications, as well as the validity
of certain assumptions we made.
The Agency has elected to address
this revision in a future rulemaking out
of a desire to review further the scaling
PO 00000
Frm 00008
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
factor applied to loan loss volume in
order to estimate the amount of
associated unpaid principal balance,
and to review any new information that
may be available from Farmer Mac
regarding its actual loan resolution
timing. The proposed scaling factor is
derived from the average principal
amortization of loans in the current
portfolio and would be recalculated on
a quarterly basis. While we received no
comments on the scaling factor, we
believe that the principal amortization
of actual nonperforming loans at Farmer
Mac might provide an opportunity to
improve the estimate of unpaid
principal balance associated with
nonperforming loans during the LLRT
period.
B. Spreadsheet Linkage for Funding OffBalance Sheet Loans
This comment from Farmer Mac deals
with a component of the revision
dealing with the carrying cost of
nonperforming loans. Because the
Agency has elected to address this
revision in a future rulemaking for
reasons explained in ‘‘A’’ above, we do
not address this comment here.
C. Adding a Component To Reflect
Counterparty Risk—Appendix A,
Section 4.1e.
The proposed rule’s provisions
related to the estimation of counterparty
risk are not included in the final rule
and will be addressed by the Agency in
a future rulemaking. Specifically, while
we received no comments on the
approach to identifying or applying the
counterparty risk component, we have
elected to review the Office of Federal
Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)
haircut levels, confirm the applicability
of the OFHEO haircut schedules for
application to yields rather than
individual cash flows, and consider the
formal development of a calculation tool
with fixed-category investment
instrument definitions.
In the preamble to the proposed rule,
we requested comment on potential
methods to incorporate three specific
risks into the model in future proposed
regulations. The three risks are: The risk
associated with the AgVantage portfolio;
the risk of a stress-induced increase in
Farmer Mac’s cost of funds; and the
counterparty risk associated with the
derivatives portfolio and specifically the
replacement cost of defaulted derivative
contracts. However, we received no
comments on these topics.
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77253
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
A. Method of Historical Loss Estimation
Farmer Mac reiterated comments it
made to our first rule implementing the
RBCST that was published in the
Federal Register on November 12, 1999.
(See 64 FR 61740.) The comments
criticize the methodology employed to
quantify the worst-case historical
benchmark loss experience, stating that
it is unsubstantiated by actual loss
experience. In this rulemaking, we
proposed no changes related to this
aspect of the RBC model and are,
therefore, not adopting Farmer Mac’s
recommended changes in the final rule.
However, we note that the Agency’s
position on this issue remains
consistent with our response that was
published in the final rule
implementing the RBC model on April
12, 2001. (See 66 FR 19048.)
B. Spreadsheet Financial Statement
Formats
In its comment letter, Farmer Mac
asked us to update the RBCST’s Balance
Sheet and Income Statement categories.
Farmer Mac commented that populating
financial statement data has become
time-consuming for its staff due to
changes in its SEC reporting formats
that are not reflected in the RBC model.
While we would prefer to make the
submission preparation process as
efficient as possible, we have observed
that Farmer Mac’s financial statements
have been changing format with relative
frequency over recent years. For that
reason, we hesitate to expend resources
to modify the formats in the model if
these could become outdated relatively
soon. However, we agree that such
updates should be done periodically in
order to keep the formats reasonably
close. For that reason, while we have
made no changes to the financial
statement formats in this rule, we would
expect to make such changes in
consultation with Farmer Mac through
the technical change process (i.e.,
without rulemaking).
VII. Technical Changes to the RBCST in
the Final Rule
In section 4.2b(3)(E) of the Appendix,
we have deleted specific guarantee fee
VI. Other Comments Received
values for post-1996 Farmer Mac I
assets, pre-1996 Farmer Mac I assets,
and Farmer Mac II assets because
specific values are not applied in the
stress test. The stress test applies
quarterly updates, supplied by Farmer
Mac, of the weighted average guarantee
rates for each category of assets.
VIII. Impact of Final Rule Changes on
Required Risk-Based Capital
The table below provides an
indication of the impact of the revisions
in the quarter ended June 30, 2006.
Lines 1 through 4 present the impacts if
only that revision were made to the
current version and the column labeled
‘‘Difference’’ calculates the impact of
that individual change for the quarter
ended June 30, 2006, compared to the
minimum requirement calculated using
the currently active Version 1.25. Line
5 presents the impact of all of the
revisions in Version 2.0 (the model as
revised in this final rule).12
Calculated regulatory minimum capital
6/30/2006
RBCST Version 1.25 (calculated as of 6/30/2006)
RBCST 2.0 Individual Change Impacts:
(1) CLM Changes: Data Proxies and Standby Treatment ...............................................................................
(2) Miscellaneous Income Treatment ...............................................................................................................
(3) Gain on Sale of AMBS ...............................................................................................................................
(4) Operating Expenses ...................................................................................................................................
(5) Total RBCST Version 2.0 Impact ...............................................................................................................
As shown in the table,
implementation of the data proxies and
the revised operating expense
estimation result in the greatest impact
on the calculated risk-based capital
requirements.
IX. Regulatory Flexibility Act
Pursuant to section 605(b) of the
Regulatory Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601
et seq.), FCA hereby certifies the rule
will not have a significant economic
impact on a substantial number of small
entities. Farmer Mac has assets and
annual income over the amounts that
would qualify them as small entities.
Therefore, Farmer Mac is not considered
a ‘‘small entity’’ as defined in the
Regulatory Flexibility Act.
List of Subjects
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
12 CFR Part 652
12 CFR Part 655
Accounting, Agriculture, Banks,
banking, Accounting and reporting
requirements, Disclosure and reporting
requirements, Rural areas.
I For the reasons stated in the preamble,
parts 652 and 655 of chapter VI, title 12
of the Code of Federal Regulations are
amended as follows:
PART 652—FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL
MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING
AND FISCAL AFFAIRS
1. The authority citation for part 652
continues to read as follows:
I
Authority: Secs. 4.12, 5.9, 5.17, 8.11, 8.31,
8.32, 8.33, 8.34, 8.35, 8.36, 8.37, 8.41 of the
Farm Credit Act (12 U.S.C. 2183, 2243, 2252,
2279aa–11, 2279bb, 2279bb–1, 2279bb–2,
2279bb–3, 2279bb–4, 2279bb–5, 2279bb–6,
2279cc); sec. 514 of Pub. L. 102–552, 106
Stat. 4102; sec. 118 of Pub. L. 104–105, 110
Stat. 168.
Difference
67,660
........................
93,523
59,932
67,660
95,297
113,431
25,862
¥7,728
0
27,637
45,771
Subpart B—Risk-Based Capital
Requirements
Sec.
652.50 Definitions.
652.55 General.
652.60 Corporation board guidelines.
652.65 Risk-based capital stress test.
652.70 Risk-based capital level.
652.75 Your responsibility for determining
the risk-based capital level.
652.80 When you must determine the riskbased capital level.
652.85 When to report the risk-based
capital level.
652.90 How to report your risk-based
capital determination.
652.95 Failure to meet capital requirements.
652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital
stress test.
Appendix A—Subpart B of Part 652—RiskBased Capital Stress Test
Subpart B—Risk-Based Capital
Requirements
§ 652.50
Definitions.
Agriculture, Banks, banking, Capital,
Investments, Rural areas.
I
2. Revise subpart B to part 652 to read
as follows:
For purposes of this subpart, the
following definitions will apply:
12 Please note that Farmer Mac announced on
October 6, 2006, that it intends to restate certain
financial results for several recent reporting
periods. The calculations in the table could change
based on the restatement.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
PO 00000
Frm 00009
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77254
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Farmer Mac, Corporation, you, and
your means the Federal Agricultural
Mortgage Corporation and its affiliates
as defined in subpart A of this part.
Our, us, or we means the Farm Credit
Administration.
Regulatory capital means the sum of
the following as determined in
accordance with generally accepted
accounting principles:
(1) The par value of outstanding
common stock;
(2) The par value of outstanding
preferred stock;
(3) Paid-in capital, which is the
amount of owner investment in Farmer
Mac in excess of the par value of stock;
(4) Retained earnings; and,
(5) Any allowances for losses on loans
and guaranteed securities.
Risk-based capital means the amount
of regulatory capital sufficient for
Farmer Mac to maintain positive capital
during a 10-year period of stressful
conditions as determined by the riskbased capital stress test described in
§ 652.65.
in which stock or equities may be
retired. In addition to factors that must
be considered in meeting the statutory
and regulatory capital standards, your
board of directors must also consider at
least the following factors in developing
the capital adequacy plan:
(1) Capability of management;
(2) Strategies and objectives in your
business plan;
(3) Quality of operating policies,
procedures, and internal controls;
(4) Quality and quantity of earnings;
(5) Asset quality and the adequacy of
the allowance for losses to absorb
potential losses in your retained
mortgage portfolio, securities
guaranteed as to principal and interest,
commitments to purchase mortgages or
securities, and other program assets or
obligations;
(6) Sufficiency of liquidity and the
quality of investments; and,
(7) Any other risk-oriented activities,
such as funding and interest rate risks,
contingent and off-balance sheet
liabilities, or other conditions
warranting additional capital.
§ 652.55
§ 652.65
General.
You must hold risk-based capital in
an amount determined in accordance
with this subpart.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
§ 652.60
Corporation board guidelines.
(a) Your board of directors is
responsible for ensuring that you
maintain total capital at a level that is
sufficient to ensure continued financial
viability and—provide for growth. In
addition, your capital must be sufficient
to meet statutory and regulatory
requirements.
(b) No later than 65 days after the
beginning of Farmer Mac’s planning
year, your board of directors must adopt
an operational and strategic business
plan for at least the next 3 years. The
plan must include:
(1) A mission statement;
(2) A review of the internal and
external factors that are likely to affect
you during the planning period;
(3) Measurable goals and objectives;
(4) Forecasted income, expense, and
balance sheet statements for each year of
the plan; and,
(5) A capital adequacy plan.
(c) The capital adequacy plan must
include capital targets necessary to
achieve the minimum, critical and riskbased capital standards specified by the
Act and this subpart as well as your
capital adequacy goals. The plan must
address any projected dividends, equity
retirements, or other action that may
decrease your capital or its components
for which minimum amounts are
required by this subpart. You must
specify in your plan the circumstances
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
Risk-based capital stress test.
You will perform the risk-based
capital stress test as described in
summary form below and as described
in detail in Appendix A to this subpart.
The risk-based capital stress test
spreadsheet is also available
electronically at https://www.fca.gov.
The risk-based capital stress test has five
components:
(a) Data requirements. You will use
the following data to implement the
risk-based capital stress test.
(1) You will use Corporation loanlevel data to implement the credit risk
component of the risk-based capital
stress test.
(2) You will use Call Report data as
the basis for Corporation data over the
10-year stress period supplemented
with your interest rate risk
measurements and tax data.
(3) You will use other data, including
the 10-year Constant Maturity Treasury
(CMT) rate and the applicable Internal
Revenue Service corporate income tax
schedule, as further described in
Appendix A to this subpart.
(b) Credit risk. The credit risk part
estimates loan losses during a period of
sustained economic stress.
(1) For each loan in the Farmer Mac
I portfolio, you will determine a default
probability by using the logit functions
specified in Appendix A to this subpart
with each of the following variables:
(i) Borrower’s debt-to-asset ratio at
loan origination;
(ii) Loan-to-value ratio at origination,
which is the loan amount divided by the
value of the property;
PO 00000
Frm 00010
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
(iii) Debt-service-coverage ratio at
origination, which is the borrower’s net
income (on- and off-farm) plus
depreciation, capital lease payments,
and interest, less living expenses and
income taxes, divided by the total term
debt payments;
(iv) The origination loan balance
stated in 1997 dollars based on the
consumer price index; and,
(v) The worst-case percentage change
in farmland values (23.52 percent).
(2) You will then calculate the loss
rate by multiplying the default
probability for each loan by the
estimated loss-severity rate, which is the
average loss of the defaulted loans in the
data set (20.9 percent).
(3) You will calculate losses by
multiplying the loss rate by the
origination loan balances stated in 1997
dollars.
(4) You will adjust the losses for loan
seasoning, based on the number of years
since loan origination, according to the
functions in Appendix A to this subpart.
(5) The losses must be applied in the
risk-based capital stress test as specified
in Appendix A to this subpart.
(c) Interest rate risk. (1) During the
first year of the stress period, you will
adjust interest rates for two scenarios,
an increase in rates and a decrease in
rates. You must determine your riskbased capital level based on whichever
scenario would require more capital.
(2) You will calculate the interest rate
stress based on changes to the quarterly
average of the 10-year CMT. The starting
rate is the 3-month average of the most
recent CMT monthly rate series. To
calculate the change in the starting rate,
determine the average yield of the
preceding 12 monthly 10-year CMT
rates. Then increase and decrease the
starting rate by:
(i) 50 percent of the 12-month average
if the average rate is less than 12
percent; or
(ii) 600 basis points if the 12-month
average rate is equal to or higher than
12 percent.
(3) Following the first year of the
stress period, interest rates remain at the
new level for the remainder of the stress
period.
(4) You will apply the interest rate
changes scenario as indicated in
Appendix A to this subpart.
(5) You may use other interest rate
indices in addition to the 10-year CMT
subject to our concurrence, but in no
event can your risk-based capital level
be less than that determined by using
only the 10-year CMT.
(d) Cashflow generator. (1) You must
adjust your financial statements based
on the credit risk inputs and interest
rate risk inputs described above to
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
generate pro forma financial statements
for each year of the 10-year stress test.
The cashflow generator produces these
financial statements. You may use the
cashflow generator spreadsheet that is
described in Appendix A to this subpart
and available electronically at https://
www.fca.gov. You may also use any
reliable cashflow program that can
develop or produce pro forma financial
statements using generally accepted
accounting principles and widely
recognized financial modeling methods,
subject to our concurrence. You may
disaggregate financial data to any greater
degree than that specified in Appendix
A to this subpart, subject to our
concurrence.
(2) You must use model assumptions
to generate financial statements over the
10-year stress period. The major
assumption is that cashflows generated
by the risk-based capital stress test are
based on a steady-state scenario. To
implement a steady-state scenario, when
on- and off-balance sheet assets and
liabilities amortize or are paid down,
you must replace them with similar
assets and liabilities. Replace amortized
assets from discontinued loan programs
with current loan programs. In general,
keep assets with small balances in
constant proportions to key program
assets.
(3) You must simulate annual pro
forma balance sheets and income
statements in the risk-based capital
stress test using Farmer Mac’s starting
position, the credit risk and interest rate
risk components, resulting cashflow
outputs, current operating strategies and
policies, and other inputs as shown in
Appendix A to this subpart and the
electronic spreadsheet available at http:
//www.fca.gov.
(e) Calculation of capital requirement.
The calculations that you must use to
solve for the starting regulatory capital
amount are shown in Appendix A to
this subpart and in the electronic
spreadsheet available at https://
www.fca.gov.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
§ 652.70
Risk-based capital level.
The risk-based capital level is the sum
of the following amounts:
(a) Credit and interest rate risk. The
amount of risk-based capital determined
by the risk-based capital test under
§ 652.65.
(b) Management and operations risk.
Thirty (30) percent of the amount of
risk-based capital determined by the
risk-based capital test in § 652.65.
§ 652.75 Your responsibility for
determining the risk-based capital level.
(a) You must determine your riskbased capital level using the procedures
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
in this subpart, Appendix A to this
subpart, and any other supplemental
instructions provided by us. You will
report your determination to us as
prescribed in § 652.90. At any time,
however, we may determine your riskbased capital level using the procedures
in § 652.65 and Appendix A to this
subpart, and you must hold risk-based
capital in the amount we determine is
appropriate.
(b) You must at all times comply with
the risk-based capital levels established
by the risk-based capital stress test and
must be able to determine your riskbased capital level at any time.
(c) If at any time the risk-based capital
level you determine is less than the
minimum capital requirements set forth
in section 8.33 of the Act, you must
maintain the statutory minimum capital
level.
§ 652.80 When you must determine the
risk-based capital level.
77255
of the preceding quarter not later than
the last business day of April, July,
October, and January of each year.
§ 652.90 How to report your risk-based
capital determination.
(a) Your risk-based capital report must
contain at least the following
information:
(1) All data integral for determining
the risk-based capital level, including
any business policy decisions or other
assumptions made in implementing the
risk-based capital test;
(2) Other information necessary to
determine compliance with the
procedures for determining risk-based
capital as specified in Appendix A to
this subpart; and
(3) Any other information we may
require in written instructions to you.
(b) You must submit each risk-based
capital report in such format or
medium, as we require.
(a) You must determine your riskbased capital level at least quarterly, or
whenever changing circumstances occur
that have a significant effect on capital,
such as exposure to a high volume of,
or particularly severe, problem loans or
a period of rapid growth.
(b) In addition to the requirements of
paragraph (a) of this section, we may
require you to determine your riskbased capital level at any time.
(c) If you anticipate entering into any
new business activity that could have a
significant effect on capital, you must
determine a pro forma risk-based capital
level, which must include the new
business activity, and report this pro
forma determination to the Director,
Office of Secondary Market Oversight, at
least 10-business days prior to
implementation of the new business
program.
§ 652.95 Failure to meet capital
requirements.
§ 652.85 When to report the risk-based
capital level.
You must have a qualified,
independent external auditor review
your implementation of the risk-based
capital stress test every 3 years and
submit a copy of the auditor’s opinion
to us.
(a) You must file a risk-based capital
report with us each time you determine
your risk-based capital level as required
by § 652.80.
(b) You must also report to us at once
if you identify in the interim between
quarterly or more frequent reports to us
that you are not in compliance with the
risk-based capital level required by
§ 652.70.
(c) If you make any changes to the
data used to calculate your risk-based
capital requirement that cause a
material adjustment to the risk-based
capital level you reported to us, you
must file an amended risk-based capital
report with us within 5-business days
after the date of such changes;
(d) You must submit your quarterly
risk-based capital report for the last day
PO 00000
Frm 00011
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
(a) Determination and notice. At any
time, we may determine that you are not
meeting your risk-based capital level
calculated according to § 652.65, your
minimum capital requirements
specified in section 8.33 of the Act, or
your critical capital requirements
specified in section 8.34 of the Act. We
will notify you in writing of this fact
and the date by which you should be in
compliance (if applicable).
(b) Submission of capital restoration
plan. Our determination that you are
not meeting your required capital levels
may require you to develop and submit
to us, within a specified time period, an
acceptable plan to reach the appropriate
capital level(s) by the date required.
§ 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital
stress test.
Appendix A—Subpart B of Part 652—
Risk-Based Capital Stress Test
1.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
3.0
3.1
4.0
4.1
Introduction.
Credit Risk.
Loss-Frequency and Loss-Severity
Models.
Loan-Seasoning Adjustment.
Example Calculation of Dollar Loss on
One Loan.
Calculation of Loss Rates for Use in the
Stress Test.
Interest Rate Risk.
Process for Calculating the Interest Rate
Movement.
Elements Used in Generating Cashflows.
Data Inputs.
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77256
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
5.0
5.1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Assumptions and Relationships.
Risk Measures.
Loan and Cashflow Accounts.
Income Statements.
Balance Sheets.
Capital.
Capital Calculations.
Method of Calculation.
1.0 Introduction
a. Appendix A provides details about the
risk-based capital stress test (stress test) for
Farmer Mac. The stress test calculates the
risk-based capital level required by statute
under stipulated conditions of credit risk and
interest rate risk. The stress test uses loanlevel data from Farmer Mac’s agricultural
mortgage portfolio or proxy data as described
in section 4.1 d.(3) below, as well as
quarterly Call Report and related information
to generate pro forma financial statements
and calculate a risk-based capital
requirement. The stress test also uses historic
agricultural real estate mortgage performance
data, relevant economic variables, and other
inputs in its calculations of Farmer Mac’s
capital needs over a 10-year period.
b. Appendix A establishes the
requirements for all components of the stress
test. The key components of the stress test
are: Specifications of credit risk, interest rate
risk, the cashflow generator, and the capital
calculation. Linkages among the components
ensure that the measures of credit and
interest rate risk pass into the cashflow
generator. The linkages also transfer
cashflows through the financial statements to
represent values of assets, liabilities, and
equity capital. The 10-year projection is
designed to reflect a steady state in the scope
and composition of Farmer Mac’s assets.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
2.0 Credit Risk
Loan loss rates are determined by applying
loss-frequency and loss-severity equations to
Farmer Mac loan-level data. From these
equations, you must calculate loan losses
under stressful economic conditions
assuming Farmer Mac’s portfolio remains at
a ‘‘steady state.’’ Steady state assumes the
underlying characteristics and risks of
Farmer Mac’s portfolio remain constant over
the 10 years of the stress test. Loss rates are
computed from estimated dollar losses for
use in the stress test. The loan volume
subject to loss throughout the stress test is
then multiplied by the loss rate. Lastly, the
stress test allocates losses to each of the 10
years assuming a time pattern for loss
occurrence as discussed in section 4.3, ‘‘Risk
Measures.’’
2.1 Loss-Frequency and Loss-Severity
Models
a. Credit risks are modeled in the stress test
using historical time series loan-level data to
measure the frequency and severity of losses
on agricultural mortgage loans. The model
relates loss frequency and severity to loanlevel characteristics and economic conditions
through appropriately specified regression
equations to account explicitly for the effects
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
of these characteristics on loan losses. Loan
losses for Farmer Mac are estimated from the
resulting loss-frequency equation combined
with the loss-severity factor by substituting
the respective values of Farmer Mac’s loanlevel data or proxy data as described in
section 4.1 d.(3) below, and applying
stressful economic inputs.
b. The loss-frequency equation and lossseverity factor were estimated from historical
agricultural real estate mortgage loan data
from the Farm Credit Bank of Texas (FCBT).
Due to Farmer Mac’s relatively short history,
its own loan-level data are insufficiently
developed for use in estimating the default
frequency equation and loss-severity factor.
In the future, however, expansions in both
the scope and historic length of Farmer Mac’s
lending operations may support the use of its
data in estimating the relationships.
c. To estimate the equations, the data used
included FCBT loans, which satisfied three
of the four underwriting standards Farmer
Mac currently uses (estimation data). The
four standards specify: (1) The debt-to-assets
ratio (D/A) must be less than 0.50, (2) the
loan-to-value ratio (LTV) must be less than
0.70, (3) the debt-service-coverage ratio
(DSCR) must exceed 1.25, (4) and the current
ratio (current assets divided by current
liabilities) must exceed 1.0. Furthermore, the
D/A and LTV ratios were restricted to be less
than or equal to 0.85.
d. Several limitations in the FCBT loanlevel data affect construction of the lossfrequency equation. The data contained loans
that were originated between 1979 and 1992,
but there were virtually no losses during the
early years of the sample period. As a result,
losses attributable to specific loans are only
available from 1986 through 1992. In
addition, no prepayment information was
available in the data.
e. The FCBT data used for estimation also
included as performing loans, those loans
that were re-amortized, paid in full, or
merged with a new loan. Including these
loans may lead to an understatement of lossfrequency probabilities if some of the reamortized, paid, or merged loans experience
default or incur losses. In contrast, when the
loans that are re-amortized, paid in full, or
merged are excluded from the analysis, the
loss-frequency rates are overstated if a higher
proportion of loans that are re-amortized,
paid in full, or combined (merged) into a new
loan are non-default loans compared to live
loans.1
f. The structure of the historical FCBT data
supports estimation of loss frequency based
on origination information and economic
conditions. Under an origination year
1 Excluding loans with defaults, 11,527 loans
were active and 7,515 loans were paid in full, reamortized or merged as of 1992. A t-test2 of the
differences in the means for the group of defaulted
loans and active loans indicated that active loans
had significantly higher D/A and LTV ratios, and
lower current ratios than defaulted loans where loss
occurred. These results indicate that, on average,
active loans have potentially higher risk than loans
that were re-amortized, paid in full, or merged.
PO 00000
Frm 00012
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
approach, each observation is used only once
in estimating loan default. The underwriting
variables at origination and economic factors
occurring over the life of the loan are then
used to estimate loan-loss frequency.
g. The final loss-frequency equation is
based on origination year data and represents
a lifetime loss-frequency model. The final
equation for loss frequency is:
p = 1/(1+exp(¥(BX))
Where:
BX = (¥12.62738) + 1.91259 · X1 +
(¥0.33830) · X2 / (1 + 0.0413299)Periods +
(¥0.19596) · X3 + 4.55390 ·
(1¥exp((¥0.00538178) · X4) + 2.49482 ·
X5
Where:
• p is the probability that a loan defaults and
has positive losses (Pr (Y=1 | x));
• X1 is the LTV ratio at loan origination
raised to the power 5.3914596; 2
• X2 is the largest annual percentage decline
in FCBT farmland values during the life
of the loan dampened with a factor of
0.0413299 per year; 3
• X3 is the DSCR at loan origination;
• X4 is 1 minus the exponential of the
product of negative 0.00538178 and the
original loan balance in 1997 dollars
expressed in thousands; and
• X5 is the D/A ratio at loan origination.
h. The estimated logit coefficients and pvalues are: 4
2 Loss probability is likely to be more sensitive to
changes in LTV at higher values of LTV. The power
function provides a continuous relationship
between LTV and defaults.
3 The dampening function reflects the declining
effect that the maximum land value decline has on
the probability of default when it occurs later in a
loan’s life.
4 The nonlinear parameters for the variable
transformations were simultaneously estimated
using SAS version 8e NLIN procedure. The NLIN
procedure produces estimates of the parameters of
a nonlinear transformation for LTV, dampening
factor, and loan-size variables. To implement the
NLIN procedure, the loss-frequency equation and
its variables are declared and initial parameter
values supplied. The NLIN procedure is an iterative
process that uses the initial parameter values as the
starting values for the first iteration and continues
to iterate until acceptable parameters are solved.
The initial values for the power function and
dampening function are based on the proposed rule.
The procedure for the initial values for the size
variable parameter is provided in an Excel
spreadsheet posted at https://www.fca.gov. The
Gauss-Newton method is the selected iterative
solving process. As described in the preamble, the
loss-frequency function for the nonlinear model is
the negative of the log-likelihood function, thus
producing maximum likelihood estimates. In order
to obtain statistical properties for the loss-frequency
equation and verify the logistic coefficients, the
estimates for the nonlinear transformations are
applied to the FCBT data and the loss-frequency
model is re-estimated using the SAS Logistic
procedure. The SAS procedures, output reports and
Excel spreadsheet used to estimate the parameters
of the loss-frequency equation are located on the
Web site https://www.fca.gov.
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Coefficients
Intercept ...................................................................................................................................................................
X1: LTV variable .......................................................................................................................................................
X2: Max land value decline variable ........................................................................................................................
X3: DSCR .................................................................................................................................................................
X4: Loan size variable ..............................................................................................................................................
X5: D/A ratio .............................................................................................................................................................
i. The low p-values on each coefficient
indicate a highly significant relationship
between the probability ratio of loan-loss
frequency and the respective independent
variables. Other goodness-of-fit indicators
are:
Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value ................
0.1718
0.2015
Max-rescaled R2 .......................
Concordant ...............................
85.2%
Disconcordant ..........................
12.0%
Tied ..........................................
2.8%
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
j. These variables have logical relationships
to the incidence of loan default and loss, as
evidenced by the findings of numerous
credit-scoring studies in agricultural
finance.5 Each of the variable coefficients has
directional relationships that appropriately
capture credit risk from underwriting
variables and, therefore, the incidence of
loan-loss frequency. The frequency of loan
loss was found to differ significantly across
all of the loan characteristics and lending
conditions. Farmland values represent an
appropriate variable for capturing the effects
of exogenous economic factors. It is
commonly accepted that farmland values at
any point in time reflect the discounted
present value of expected returns to the
land.6 Thus, changes in land values, as
expressed in the loss-frequency equation,
represent the combined effects of the level
and growth rates of farm income, interest
rates, and inflationary expectations—each of
which is accounted for in the discounted,
present value process.
k. When applying the equation to Farmer
Mac’s portfolio, you must get the input
values for X1, X3, X4, and X5 for each loan
in Farmer Mac’s portfolio on the date at
which the stress test is conducted, using
either submitted data or proxy data as
described in section 4.1 d.(3) below. For the
variable X2, the stressful input value from the
benchmark loss experience is ¥23.52
percent. You must apply this input to all
Farmer Mac loans subject to loss to calculate
loss frequency under stressful economic
conditions.7 The maximum land value
decline from the benchmark loss experience
is the simple average of annual land value
5 Splett, N.S., P. J. Barry, B. Dixon, and P.
Ellinger. ‘‘A Joint Experience and Statistical
Approach to Credit Scoring,’’ Agricultural Finance
Review, 54(1994):39–54.
6 Barry, P. J., P. N. Ellinger, J. A. Hopkin, and C.
B. Baker. Financial Management in Agriculture, 5th
ed., Interstate Publishers, 1995.
7 On- and off-balance sheet Farmer Mac I
agricultural mortgage program assets booked after
the 1996 Act amendments are subject to the loss
calculation.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
changes for Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota for
the years 1984 and 1985.8
l. Forecasting with data outside the range
of the estimation data requires special
treatment for implementation. While the
estimation data embody Farmer Mac values
for various loan characteristics, the
maximum farmland price decline
experienced in Texas was ¥16.69 percent, a
value below the benchmark experience of
¥23.52 percent. To control for this effect,
you must apply a procedure that restricts the
slope of all the independent variables to that
observed at the maximum land value decline
observed in the estimation data. Essentially,
you must approximate the slope of the lossfrequency equation at the point ¥16.69
percent in order to adjust the probability of
loan default and loss occurrence for data
beyond the range in the estimating data. The
adjustment procedure is shown in step 4 of
section 2.3 entitled, ‘‘Example Calculation of
Dollar Loss on One Loan.’’
m. Loss severity was not found to vary
systematically and was considered constant
across the tested loan characteristics and
lending conditions. Thus, the simple
weighted average by loss volume of 20.9
percent is used in the stress test.9 You must
multiply loss severity with the probability
estimate computed from the loss-frequency
equation to determine the loss rate for a loan.
n. Using original loan balance results in
estimated probabilities of loss frequency over
the entire life of a loan. To account for loan
seasoning, you must reduce the loan-loss
exposure by the cumulative probability of
loss already experienced by each loan as
discussed in section 2.2 entitled, ‘‘LoanSeasoning Adjustment.’’ This subtraction is
based on loan age and reduces the loss
estimated by the loss-frequency and lossseverity equations. The result is an ageadjusted lifetime dollar loss that can be used
in subsequent calculations of loss rates as
discussed in section 2.4, ‘‘Calculation of Loss
Rates for Use in the Stress Test.’’
2.2 Loan-Seasoning Adjustment
a. You must use the seasoning function
supplied by FCA to adjust the calculated
probability of loss for each Farmer Mac loan
for the cumulative loss exposure already
experienced based on the age of each loan.
The seasoning function is based on the same
data used to determine the loss-frequency
equation and an assumed average life of 14
years for agricultural mortgages. If we
determine that the relationship between the
8 While the worst-case losses, based on
origination year, occurred during 1983 and 1984,
this benchmark was determined using annual land
value changes that occurred 2 years later.
9 We calculated the weighted-average loss
severity from the estimation data.
PO 00000
Frm 00013
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
¥12.62738
1.91259
0.33830
¥0.19596
4.55390
2.49482
77257
p-value
<0.0001
0.0001
<0.0001
0.0002
<0.0001
<0.0000
loss experience in Farmer Mac’s portfolio
over time and the seasoning function can be
improved, we may augment or replace the
seasoning function.
b. The seasoning function is parameterized
as a beta distribution with parameters of p =
4.288 and q = 5.3185.10 How the loanseasoning distribution is used is shown in
Step 7 of section 2.3, ‘‘Example Calculation
of Dollar Loss on One Loan.’’
2.3 Example Calculation of Dollar Loss on
One Loan
Here is an example of the calculation of the
dollar losses for an individual loan with the
following characteristics and input values: 11
Loan Origination Year .............
1996
Loan Origination Balance .......
$1,250,000
LTV at Origination ..................
0.5
D/A at Origination ...................
0.5
DSCR at Origination ................
1.3984
Maximum Percentage Land
Price Decline (MAX) ............
¥23.52
Step 1: Convert 1996 Origination Value to
1997 dollar value (LOAN) based on the
consumer price index and transform as
follows:
$1,278,500 = $1,250,000 · 1.0228
0.998972 = 1 ¥ exp((¥.00538178) ·
$1,278,500 / 1000)
Step 2: Calculate the default probabilities
using ¥16.64 percent and ¥16.74 percent
land value declines as follows: 12
Where:
Z1 = (¥12.62738) + 1.91259 · LTV5.3914596 ¥
0.33830 · (¥16.6439443) ¥ 0.19596 ·
DSCR + 4.55390 · 0.998972 + 2.49482 ·
DA = (¥1.428509)
Default Loss Frequency at (¥16.64%) =
1 / 1 + exp¥(¥1.428509) = 0.19333111
And
Z1 = (¥12.62738) + 1.91259 · LTV5.3914596 ¥
0.33830 · (¥16.7439443) ¥ 0.19596 ·
DSCR + 4.55390 · 0.998972 + 2.49482 ·
DA = (¥1.394679)
Loss Frequency Probability at (¥16.74%) =
1 / 1 + exp¥(¥1.394679) = 0.19866189
10 We estimated the loan-seasoning distribution
from portfolio aggregate charge-off rates from the
estimation data. To do so, we arrayed all defaulting
loans where loss occurred according to the time
from origination to default. Then, a beta
distribution, b(p, q), was fit to the estimation data
scaled to the maximum time a loan survived (14
years).
11 In the examples presented we rounded the
numbers, but the example calculation is based on
a larger number of significant digits. The stress test
uses additional digits carried at the default
precision of the software.
12 This process facilitates the approximation of
slope needed to adjust the loss probabilities for land
value declines greater than observed in the
estimation data.
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77258
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Step 3: Calculate the slope adjustment. You
must calculate slope by subtracting the
difference between ‘‘Loss-Frequency
Probability at ¥16.64 percent’’ and ‘‘LossFrequency Probability at ¥16.74 percent’’
and dividing by ¥0.1 (the difference between
¥16.64 percent and ¥16.74 percent) as
follows:
0.05330776 = (0.19333111 ¥ 0.19866189) /
¥0.1
Step 4: Make the linear adjustment. You
make the adjustment by increasing the lossfrequency probability where the dampened
stressed farmland value input is less than
¥16.69 percent to reflect the stressed
farmland value input, appropriately
discounted. As discussed previously, the
stressed land value input is discounted to
reflect the declining effect that the maximum
land value decline has on the probability of
default when it occurs later in a loan’s life.13
The linear adjustment is the difference
between ¥16.69 percent land value decline
and the adjusted stressed maximum land
value decline input of ¥23.52 multiplied by
the slope estimated in Step 3 as follows:
Loss Frequency at ¥16.69 percent =
Z1 = (¥12.62738) + (1.91259)(LTV5.3914596) ¥
(0.33830)(¥16.6939443) ¥
(0.19596)(DSCR) + (4.55390)(0.998972) +
(2.49482)(DA) = ¥1.411594
And
1 / 1 + exp¥(¥1.411594) = 0.19598279
Dampened Maximum Land Price Decline =
(¥20.00248544) =
(¥23.52)(1.0413299)¥4
Slope Adjustment = 0.17637092 =
0.053312247 · (¥16.6939443 ¥
(¥20.00248544))
Loan Default Probability = 0.37235371 =
0.19598279 + 0.17637092
Step 5: Multiply loan default probability
times the average severity of 0.209 as follows:
0.077821926 = 0.37235371 · 0.209
Step 6: Multiply the loss rate times the
origination loan balance as follows:
$97,277 = $1,250,000 · 0.077821926
Step 7: Adjust the origination based dollar
losses for 4 years of loan seasoning as
follows:
$81,987 = $97,277 ¥ $97,277 ·
(0.157178762) 14
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
2.4 Calculation of Loss Rates for Use in the
Stress Test
a. You must compute the loss rates by state
as the dollar weighted average seasoned loss
rates from the Cash Window and Standby
loan portfolios by state. The spreadsheet
entitled, ‘‘Credit Loss Module.XLS’’ can be
used for these calculations. This spreadsheet
is available for download on our Web site,
www.fca.gov, or will be provided upon
request. The blended loss rates for each state
are copied from the ‘‘Credit Loss Module’’ to
the stress test spreadsheet for determining
Farmer Mac’s regulatory capital requirement.
13 The dampened period is the number of years
from the beginning of the origination year to the
current year (i.e., January 1, 1996 to January 1, 2000
is 4 years).
14 The age of adjustment of 0.157178762 is
determined from the beta distribution for a 4-yearold loan.
VerDate Aug<31>2005
17:03 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
b. The stress test use of the blended loss
rates is further discussed in section 4.3, ‘‘Risk
Measures.’’
3.0 Interest Rate Risk
The stress test explicitly accounts for
Farmer Mac’s vulnerability to interest rate
risk from the movement in interest rates
specified in the statute. The stress test
considers Farmer Mac’s interest rate risk
position through the current structure of its
balance sheet, reported interest rate risk
shock-test results,15 and other financial
activities. The stress test calculates the effect
of interest rate risk exposure through market
value changes of interest-bearing assets,
liabilities, and off-balance sheet transactions,
and thereby the effects to equity capital. The
stress test also captures this exposure
through the cashflows on rate-sensitive assets
and liabilities. We discuss how to calculate
the dollar impact of interest rate risk in
section 4.6, ‘‘Balance Sheets.’’
3.1 Process for Calculating the Interest Rate
Movement
a. The stress test uses the 10-year Constant
Maturity Treasury (10-year CMT) released by
the Federal Reserve in HR. 15, ‘‘Selected
Interest Rates.’’ The stress test uses the 10year CMT to generate earnings yields on
assets, expense rates on liabilities, and
changes in the market value of assets and
liabilities. For stress test purposes, the
starting rate for the 10-year CMT is the 3month average of the most recent monthly
rate series published by the Federal Reserve.
The 3-month average is calculated by
summing the latest monthly series of the 10year CMT and dividing by three. For
instance, you would calculate the initial rate
on June 30, 1999, as:
10-year
CMT
monthly
series
Month end
04/1999 .........................................
05/1999 .........................................
06/1999 .........................................
Average ........................................
5.18
5.54
5.90
5.54
b. The amount by which the stress test
shocks the initial rate up and down is
determined by calculating the 12-month
average of the 10-year CMT monthly series.
If the resulting average is less than 12
percent, the stress test shocks the initial rate
by an amount determined by multiplying the
12-month average rate by 50 percent.
However, if the average is greater than or
equal to 12 percent, the stress test shocks the
initial rate by 600 basis points. For example,
determine the amount by which to increase
and decrease the initial rate for June 30,
1999, as follows:
10-year
CMT
monthly
series
Month end
07/1998 .........................................
5.46
15 See paragraph c. of section 4.1 entitled, ‘‘Data
Inputs,’’ for a description of the interest rate risk
shock-reporting requirement.
PO 00000
Frm 00014
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
Month end
10-year
CMT
monthly
series
08/1998 .........................................
09/1998 .........................................
10/1998 .........................................
11/1998 .........................................
12/1998 .........................................
01/1999 .........................................
02/1999 .........................................
03/1999 .........................................
04/1999 .........................................
05/1999 .........................................
06/1999 .........................................
12-Month Average ........................
5.34
4.81
4.53
4.83
4.65
4.72
5.00
5.23
5.18
5.54
5.90
5.10
Calculation of shock amount
12-Month Average Less than 12% ......
12-Month Average ...............................
Multiply the 12-Month Average by ......
Shock in basis points equals ...............
Yes.
5.10.
50%.
255.
c. You must run the stress test for two
separate changes in interest rates: (i) An
immediate increase in the initial rate by the
shock amount; and (ii) immediate decrease in
the initial rate by the shock amount. The
stress test then holds the changed interest
rate constant for the remainder of the 10-year
stress period. For example, at June 30, 1999,
the stress test would be run for an immediate
and sustained (for 10 years) upward
movement in interest rates to 8.09 percent
(5.54 percent plus 255 basis points) and also
for an immediate and sustained (for 10 years)
downward movement in interest rates to 2.99
percent (5.54 percent minus 255 basis
points). The movement in interest rates that
results in the greatest need for capital is then
used to determine Farmer Mac’s risk-based
capital requirement.
4.0 Elements Used in Generating Cashflows
a. This section describes the elements that
are required for implementation of the stress
test and assessment of Farmer Mac capital
performance through time. An Excel
spreadsheet named FAMC RBCST, available
at https://www.fca.gov, contains the stress test,
including the cashflow generator. The
spreadsheet contains the following seven
worksheets:
(1) Data Input;
(2) Assumptions and Relationships;
(3) Risk Measures (credit risk and interest
rate risk);
(4) Loan and Cash Flow Accounts;
(5) Income Statements;
(6) Balance Sheets; and
(7) Capital.
b. Each of the components is described in
further detail below with references where
appropriate to the specific worksheets within
the Excel spreadsheet. The stress test may be
generally described as a set of linked
financial statements that evolve over a period
of 10 years using generally accepted
accounting conventions and specified sets of
stressed inputs. The stress test uses the initial
financial condition of Farmer Mac, including
earnings and funding relationships, and the
credit and interest rate stressed inputs to
calculate Farmer Mac’s capital performance
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
through time. The stress test then subjects the
initial financial conditions to the first period
set of credit and interest rate risk stresses,
generates cashflows by asset and liability
category, performs necessary accounting
postings into relevant accounts, and
generates an income statement associated
with the first interval of time. The stress test
then uses the income statement to update the
balance sheet for the end of period 1
(beginning of period 2). All necessary capital
calculations for that point in time are then
performed.
c. The beginning of the period 2 balance
sheet then serves as the departure point for
the second income cycle. The second
period’s cashflows and resulting income
statement are generated in similar fashion as
the first period’s except all inputs (i.e., the
periodic loan losses, portfolio balance by
category, and liability balances) are updated
appropriately to reflect conditions at that
point in time. The process evolves forward
for a period of 10 years with each pair of
balance sheets linked by an intervening set
of cashflow and income statements. In this
and the following sections, additional details
are provided about the specification of the
income-generating model to be used by
Farmer Mac in calculating the risk-based
capital requirement.
4.1 Data Inputs
The stress test requires the initial financial
statement conditions and income generating
relationships for Farmer Mac. The worksheet
named ‘‘Data Inputs’’ contains the complete
data inputs and the data form used in the
stress test. The stress test uses these data and
various assumptions to calculate pro forma
financial statements. For stress test purposes,
Farmer Mac is required to supply:
a. Call Report Schedules RC: Balance Sheet
and RI: Income Statement. These schedules
form the starting financial position for the
stress test. In addition, the stress test
calculates basic financial relationships and
assumptions used in generating pro forma
annual financial statements over the 10-year
stress period. Financial relationships and
assumptions are in section 4.2,
‘‘Assumptions and Relationships.’’
b. Cashflow Data for Asset and Liability
Account Categories. The necessary cashflow
data for the spreadsheet-based stress test are
book value, weighted average yield, weighted
average maturity, conditional prepayment
rate, weighted average amortization, and
weighted average guarantee fees. The
spreadsheet uses this cashflow information to
generate starting and ending account
balances, interest earnings, guarantee fees,
and interest expense. Each asset and liability
account category identified in this data
requirement is discussed in section 4.2,
‘‘Assumptions and Relationships.’’
c. Interest Rate Risk Measurement Results.
The stress test uses the results from Farmer
Mac’s interest rate risk model to represent
changes in the market value of assets,
liabilities, and off-balance sheet positions
during upward and downward instantaneous
shocks in interest rates of 300, 250, 200, 150,
and 100 basis points. The stress test uses
these data to calculate a schedule of
estimated effective durations representing the
market value effects from a change in interest
rates. The stress test uses a linear
interpolation of the duration schedule to
relate a change in interest rates to a change
in the market value of equity. This
calculation is described in section 4.4
entitled, ‘‘Loan and Cashflow Accounts,’’ and
is illustrated in the referenced worksheet of
the stress test.
d. Loan-Level Data for all Farmer Mac I
Program Assets.
(1) The stress test requires loan-level data
for all Farmer Mac I program assets to
determine lifetime age-adjusted loss rates.
The specific loan data fields required for
running the credit risk component are:
Farmer Mac I Program Loan Data Fields
Loan Number
Ending Scheduled Balance
Group
Pre/Post Act
Property State
Product Type
Origination Date
Loan Cutoff Date
Original Loan Balance
Original Scheduled P&I
Original Appraised Value
Loan-to-Value Ratio
Debt-to-Assets Ratio
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Total Assets
Total Liabilities
Gross Farm Revenue
Net Farm Income
Depreciation
Interest on Capital Debt
Capital Lease Payments
Living Expenses
Income & FICA Taxes
Net Off-Farm Income
Total Debt Service
Guarantee/Commitment Fee
Seasoned Loan Flag
(2) From the loan-level data, you must
identify the geographic distribution by state
of Farmer Mac’s loan portfolio and enter the
current loan balance for each state in the
‘‘Data Inputs’’ worksheet. The lifetime ageadjustment of origination year loss rates was
discussed in section 2.0, ‘‘Credit Risk.’’ The
lifetime age-adjusted loss rates are entered in
the ‘‘Risk Measures’’ worksheet of the stress
test. The stress test application of the loss
rates is discussed in section 4.3, ‘‘Risk
Measures.’’
(3) Under certain circumstances, described
below, you must substitute the following data
proxies for the variables LTV, DSCR, and D/
A: LTV = 0.70, DSCR = 1.25, and D/A = 0.50.
The substitution must be done whenever any
of these data are missing, i.e., cells are blank,
or one or more of the conditions in the
following table is true.
Condition
Apply
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
1. Total Assets = 0 .............................................................................................................................................
2. Total Liabilities = 0 .........................................................................................................................................
3. Total assets less total liabilities <0 ................................................................................................................
4. Total debt service = 0 or not calculable ........................................................................................................
5. Net farm income = 0 ......................................................................................................................................
6. LTV ratio = 0 ..................................................................................................................................................
7. Total assets less than original appraised value ............................................................................................
8. Total liabilities less than the original loan amount ........................................................................................
9. Total debt service is less than original scheduled principal and interest payment .......................................
10. Depreciation, interest on capital debt, capital lease payments, or living expenses are reported as less
than zero.
11. Original Scheduled Principal and Interest is greater than Total Debt Service ...........................................
12. Calculated LTV (original loan amount divided by original appraised value) does not equal the submitted
LTV ratio.
13. Any of the fields referenced in ‘‘1.’’ through ‘‘12.’’ above are blank or contain spaces, periods, zeros,
negative amounts, or fonts formatted to any setting other than numbers.
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
Proxy
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
PO 00000
Frm 00015
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
D/A.
D/A.
D/A.
DSCR.
DSCR.
LTV.
LTV, D/A.
D/A.
DSCR.
DSCR.
Proxy DSCR.
The greater of the two LTV ratios.
Proxy all related ratios.
In addition, the following loan data
adjustments must be made in response to the
situations listed below:
VerDate Aug<31>2005
77259
26DER1
77260
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
Situation
Data adjustment
Original loan balance is less than scheduled loan balance .....................
Purchase (commitment) date (a.k.a. ‘‘cutoff’’ date) field and Origination
date field are both blank.
Origination date field is blank ...................................................................
Seasoned Standby loans that include loan data .....................................
Substitute scheduled balance for origination.
Insert the quarter end ‘‘as of’’ date of the RBCST submission.
Model based on Cutoff date.
Proxy data applied.*
* Application of proxy data recognizes that underwriting data on seasoned Standby loans are not reviewed by Farmer Mac in favor of other criteria and frequently not origination data.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
Further, because it would not be possible
to compile an exhaustive list of loan data
anomalies, FCA reserves the authority to
require an explanation on other data
anomalies it identifies and to apply the loan
data proxies on such cases until the anomaly
is adequately addressed by the Corporation.
e. Other Data Requirements. Other data
elements are taxes paid over the previous 2
years, the corporate tax schedule, selected
line items from Schedule RS–C of the Call
Report, and 10-year CMT information as
discussed in section 3.1 entitled, ‘‘Process for
Calculating the Interest Rate Movement.’’ The
stress test uses the corporate tax schedule
and previous taxes paid to determine the
appropriate amount of taxes, including
available loss carry-backs and loss carryforwards. Three line items found in sections
Part II.2.a. and 2.b. of Call Report Schedule
RS–C Capital Calculation must also be
entered in the ‘‘Data Inputs’’ sheet. The two
line items found in Part II.2.a. contain the
dollar volume off-balance sheet assets
relating to the Farmer Mac I and II programs.
The off-balance sheet program asset dollar
volumes are used to calculate the operating
expense regression on a quarterly basis. The
single-line item found in Part II.2.b. provides
the amount of other off-balance sheet
obligations and is presented in the balance
sheet section of the stress test for purposes
of completeness. The 10-year CMT quarterly
average of the monthly series and the 12month average of the monthly series must be
entered in the ‘‘Data Inputs’’ sheet. These two
data elements are used to determine the
starting interest rate and the level of the
interest rate shock applied in the stress test.
4.2 Assumptions and Relationships
a. The stress test assumptions are
summarized on the worksheet called
‘‘Assumptions and Relationships.’’ Some of
the entries on this page are direct user
entries. Other entries are relationships
generated from data supplied by Farmer Mac
or other sources as discussed in section 4.1,
‘‘Data Inputs.’’ After current financial data
are entered, the user selects the date for
running the stress test. This action causes the
stress test to identify and select the
appropriate data from the ‘‘Data Inputs’’
worksheet. The next section highlights the
degree of disaggregation needed to maintain
reasonably representative financial
characterizations of Farmer Mac in the stress
test. Several specific assumptions are
established about the future relationships of
account balances and how they evolve.
b. From the data and assumptions, the
stress test computes pro forma financial
statements for 10 years. The stress test must
be run as a ‘‘steady state’’ with regard to
program balances, and where possible, will
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
use information gleaned from recent financial
statements and other data supplied by
Farmer Mac to establish earnings and cost
relationships on major program assets that
are applied forward in time. As documented
in the stress test, entries of ‘‘1’’ imply no
growth and/or no change in account balances
or proportions relative to initial conditions
with the exception of pre-1996 loan volume
being transferred to post-1996 loan volume.
The interest rate risk and credit loss
components are applied to the stress test
through time. The individual sections of that
worksheet are:
(1) Elements related to cashflows, earnings
rates, and disposition of discontinued
program assets.
(A) The stress test accounts for earnings
rates by asset class and cost rates on funding.
The stress test aggregates investments into
the categories of: Cash and money market
securities; commercial paper; certificates of
deposit; agency mortgage-backed securities
and collateralized mortgage obligations; and
other investments. With FCA’s concurrence,
Farmer Mac is permitted to further
disaggregate these categories. Similarly, we
may require new categories for future
activities to be added to the stress test. Loan
items requiring separate accounts include the
following:
(i) Farmer Mac I program assets post-1996
Act;
(ii) Farmer Mac I program assets post-1996
Act Swap balances;
(iii) Farmer Mac I program assets pre-1996
Act;
(iv) Farmer Mac I AgVantage securities;
(v) Loans held for securitization; and
(vi) Farmer Mac II program assets.
(B) The stress test also uses data elements
related to amortization and prepayment
experience to calculate and process the
implied rates at which asset and liability
balances terminate or ‘‘roll off’’ through time.
Further, for each category, the stress test has
the capacity to track account balances that
are expected to change through time for each
of the above categories. For purposes of the
stress test, all assets are assumed to maintain
a ‘‘steady state’’ with the implication that any
principal balances retired or prepaid are
replaced with new balances. The exceptions
are that expiring pre-1996 Act program assets
are replaced with post-1996 Act program
assets.
(2) Elements related to other balance sheet
assumptions through time. As well as interest
earning assets, the other categories of the
balance sheet that are modeled through time
include interest receivable, guarantee fees
receivable, prepaid expenses, accrued
interest payable, accounts payable, accrued
expenses, reserves for losses (loans held and
guaranteed securities), and other off-balance
PO 00000
Frm 00016
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
sheet obligations. The stress test is consistent
with Farmer Mac’s existing reporting
categories and practices. If reporting
practices change substantially, the above list
will be adjusted accordingly. The stress test
has the capacity to have the balances in each
of these accounts determined based upon
existing relationships to other earning
accounts, to keep their balances either in
constant proportions of loan or security
accounts, or to evolve according to a userselected rule. For purposes of the stress test,
these accounts are to remain constant relative
to the proportions of their associated balance
sheet accounts that generated the accrued
balances.
(3) Elements related to income and
expense assumptions. Several other
parameters that are required to generate pro
forma financial statements may not be easily
captured from historic data or may have
characteristics that suggest that they be
individually supplied. These parameters are
the gain on agricultural mortgage-backed
securities (AMBS) sales, miscellaneous
income, operating expenses, reserve
requirement, and guarantee fees.
(A) The stress test applies the actual
weighted average gain rate on sales of AMBS
over the most recent 3 years to the dollar
amount of AMBS sold during the most recent
four quarters in order to estimate gain on sale
of AMBS over the stress period.
(B) The stress test assumes miscellaneous
income at a level equal to the average of the
most recent 3-year’s actual miscellaneous
income as a percent of the sum of; cash,
investments, guaranteed securities, and loans
held for investment.
(C) Operating costs are determined in the
model using weighted moving average of
operating expenses as a percentage of the
sum of on-balance sheet assets and offbalance sheet program activities over the
previous four quarters inclusive of the
current submission date. The share will then
be applied forward to the balances of the
same categories throughout the 10-year
period of the RBCST model. As additional
data accumulate, the specification will be reexamined and modified if we deem changing
the specification results in a more
appropriate representation of operating
expenses.
(D) The reserve requirement as a fraction
of loan assets can also be specified. However,
the stress test is run with the reserve
requirement set to zero. Setting the parameter
to zero causes the stress test to calculate a
risk-based capital level that is comparable to
regulatory capital, which includes reserves.
Thus, the risk-based capital requirement
contains the regulatory capital required,
including reserves. The amount of total
capital that is allocated to the reserve account
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
is determined by GAAP. The stress test
applies quarterly updates of the weighted
average guarantee rates for post-1996 Farmer
Mac I assets, pre-1996 Farmer Mac I assets,
and Farmer Mac II assets.
(4) Elements related to earnings rates and
funding costs.
(A) The stress test can accommodate
numerous specifications of earnings and
funding costs. In general, both relationships
are tied to the 10-year CMT interest rate.
Specifically, each investment account, each
loan item, and each liability account can be
specified as fixed rate, or fixed spread to the
10-year CMT with initial rates determined by
actual data. The stress test calculates specific
spreads (weighted average yield less initial
10-year CMT) by category from the weighted
average yield data supplied by Farmer Mac
as described earlier. For example, the fixed
spread for Farmer Mac I program post-1996
Act mortgages is calculated as follows:
Fixed Spread = Weighted Average Yield less
10-year CMT 0.014 = 0.0694—0.0554
(B) The resulting fixed spread of 1.40
percent is then added to the 10-year CMT
when it is shocked to determine the new
yield. For instance, if the 10-year CMT is
shocked upward by 300 basis points, the
yield on Farmer Mac I program post-1996 Act
loans would change as follows:
Yield = Fixed Spread + 10-year CMT .0994
= .014 + .0854
(C) The adjusted yield is then used for
income calculations when generating pro
forma financial statements. All fixed-spread
asset and liability classes are computed in an
identical manner using starting yields
provided as data inputs from Farmer Mac.
The fixed-yield option holds the starting
yield data constant for the entire 10-year
stress test period. You must run the stress
test using the fixed-spread option for all
accounts except for discontinued program
activities, such as Farmer Mac I program
loans made before the 1996 Act. For
discontinued loans, the fixed-rate
specification must be used if the loans are
primarily fixed-rate mortgages.
(5) Elements related to interest rate shock
test. As described earlier, the interest rate
shock test is implemented as a single set of
forward interest rates. The stress test applies
the up-rate scenario and down-rate scenario
separately. The stress test also uses the
results of Farmer Mac’s shock test, as
described in paragraph c. of section 4.1,
‘‘Data Inputs,’’ to calculate the impact on
equity from a stressful change in interest
rates as discussed in section 3.0 titled,
‘‘Interest Rate Risk.’’ The stress test uses a
schedule relating a change in interest rates to
a change in the market value of equity. For
instance, if interest rates are shocked upward
so that the percentage change is 262 basis
points, the linearly interpolated effective
estimated duration of equity is ¥6.7405
years given Farmer Mac’s interest rate
measurement results at 250 and 300 basis
points of ¥6.7316 and 76.7688 years,
respectively found on the effective duration
schedule. The stress test uses the linearly
interpolated estimated effective duration for
equity to calculate the market value change
by multiplying duration by the base value of
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
equity before any rate change from Farmer
Mac’s interest rate risk measurement results
with the percentage change in interest rates.
4.3 Risk Measures
a. This section describes the elements of
the stress test in the worksheet named ‘‘Risk
Measures’’ that reflect the interest rate shock
and credit loss requirements of the stress test.
b. As described in section 3.1, the stress
test applies the statutory interest rate shock
to the initial 10-year CMT rate. It then
generates a series of fixed annual interest
rates for the 10-year stress period that serve
as indices for earnings yields and cost of
funds rates used in the stress test. (See the
‘‘Risk Measures’’ worksheet for the resulting
interest rate series used in the stress test.)
c. The Credit Loss Module’s state-level loss
rates, as described in section 2.4 entitled,
‘‘Calculation of Loss Rates for Use in the
Stress Test,’’ are entered into the ‘‘Risk
Measures’’ worksheet and applied to the loan
balances that exist in each state. The
distribution of loan balances by state is used
to allocate new loans that replace loan
products that roll off the balance sheet
through time. The loss rates are applied both
to the initial volume and to new loan volume
that replaces expiring loans. The total life of
loan losses that are expected at origination
are then allocated through time based on a
set of user entries describing the time-path of
losses.
d. The loss rates estimated in the credit
risk component of the stress test are based on
an origination year concept, adjusted for loan
seasoning. All losses arising from loans
originated in a particular year are expressed
as lifetime age-adjusted losses irrespective of
when the losses actually occur. The fraction
of the origination year loss rates that must be
used to allocate losses through time are 43
percent to year 1, 17 percent to year 2, 11.66
percent to year 3, and 4.03 percent for the
remaining years. The total allocated losses in
any year are expressed as a percent of loan
volume in that year to reflect the conversion
to exposure year.
4.4 Loan and Cashflow Accounts
The worksheet labeled ‘‘Loan and
Cashflow Data’’ contains the categorized loan
data and cashflow accounting relationships
that are used in the stress test to generate
projections of Farmer Mac’s performance and
condition. As can be seen in the worksheet,
the steady-state formulation results in
account balances that remain constant except
for the effects of discontinued programs. For
assets with maturities under 1 year, the
results are reported for convenience as
though they matured only one time per year
with the additional convention that the
earnings/cost rates are annualized. For the
pre-1996 Act assets, maturing balances are
added back to post-1996 Act account
balances. The liability accounts are used to
satisfy the accounting identity, which
requires assets to equal liabilities plus owner
equity. In addition to the replacement of
maturities under a steady state, liabilities are
increased to reflect net losses or decreased to
reflect resulting net gains. Adjustments must
be made to the long- and short-term debt
accounts to maintain the same relative
PO 00000
Frm 00017
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
77261
proportions as existed at the beginning
period from which the stress test is run. The
primary receivable and payable accounts are
also maintained on this worksheet, as is a
summary balance of the volume of loans
subject to credit losses.
4.5 Income Statements
a. Information related to income
performance through time is contained on
the worksheet named ‘‘Income Statements.’’
Information from the first period balance
sheet is used in conjunction with the
earnings and cost-spread relationships from
Farmer Mac supplied data to generate the
first period’s income statement. The same set
of accounts is maintained in this worksheet
as ‘‘Loan and Cashflow Accounts’’ for
consistency in reporting each annual period
of the 10-year stress period of the test. The
income from each interest-bearing account is
calculated, as are costs of interest-bearing
liabilities. In each case, these entries are the
associated interest rate for that period
multiplied by the account balances.
b. The credit losses described in section
2.0, ‘‘Credit Risk,’’ are transmitted through
the provision account, as is any change
needed to re-establish the target reserve
balance. For determining risk-based capital,
the reserve target is set to zero as previously
indicated in section 4.2. Under the income
tax section, it must first be determined
whether it is appropriate to carry forward tax
losses or recapture tax credits. The tax
section then establishes the appropriate
income tax liability that permits the
calculation of final net income (loss), which
is credited (debited) to the retained earnings
account.
4.6 Balance Sheets
a. The worksheet named ‘‘Balance Sheets’’
is used to construct pro forma balance sheets
from which the capital calculations can be
performed. As can be seen in the Excel
spreadsheet, the worksheet is organized to
correspond to Farmer Mac’s normal reporting
practices. Asset accounts are built from the
initial financial statement conditions, and
loan and cashflow accounts. Liability
accounts including the reserve account are
likewise built from the previous period’s
results to balance the asset and equity
positions. The equity section uses initial
conditions and standard accounts to monitor
equity through time. The equity section
maintains separate categories for increments
to paid-in-capital and retained earnings and
for mark-to-market effects of changes in
account values. The process described below
in the ‘‘Capital’’ worksheet uses the initial
retained earnings and paid-in-capital account
to test for the change in initial capital that
permits conformance to the statutory
requirements. Therefore, these accounts must
be maintained separately for test solution
purposes.
b. The market valuation changes due to
interest rate movements must be computed
utilizing the linearly interpolated schedule of
estimated equity effects due to changes in
interest rates, contained in the ‘‘Assumptions
& Relationships’’ worksheet. The stress test
calculates the dollar change in the market
value of equity by multiplying the base value
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
77262
Federal Register / Vol. 71, No. 247 / Tuesday, December 26, 2006 / Rules and Regulations
of equity before any rate change from Farmer
Mac’s interest rate risk measurement results,
the linearly interpolated estimated effective
duration of equity, and the percentage change
in interest rates. In addition, the earnings
effect of the measured dollar change in the
market value of equity is estimated by
multiplying the dollar change by the blended
cost of funds rate found on the ‘‘Assumptions
& Relationships’’ worksheet. Next, divide by
2 the computed earnings effect to
approximate the impact as a theoretical
shock in the interest rates that occurs at the
mid-point of the income cycle from period t 0
to period t 1. The measured dollar change in
the market value of equity and related
earnings effect are then adjusted to reflect
any tax-related benefits. Tax adjustments are
determined by including the measured dollar
change in the market value of equity and the
earnings effect in the tax calculations found
in the ‘‘Income Statements’’ worksheet. This
approach ensures that the value of equity
reflects the economic loss or gain in value of
Farmer Mac’s capital position from a change
in interest rates and reflects any immediate
tax benefits that Farmer Mac could realize.
Any tax benefits in the module are posted
through the income statement by adjusting
the net taxes due before calculating final net
income. Final net income is posted to
accumulated unretained earnings in the
shareholders’ equity portion of the balance
sheet. The tax section is also described in
section 4.5 entitled, ‘‘Income Statements.’’
c. After one cycle of income has been
calculated, the balance sheet as of the end of
the income period is then generated. The
‘‘Balance Sheet’’ worksheet shows the
periodic pro forma balance sheets in a format
convenient to track capital shifts through
time.
d. The stress test considers Farmer Mac’s
balance sheet as subject to interest rate risk
and, therefore, the capital position reflects
mark-to-market changes in the value of
equity. This approach ensures that the stress
test captures interest rate risk in a meaningful
way by addressing explicitly the loss or gain
in value resulting from the change in interest
rates required by the statute.
jlentini on PROD1PC65 with RULES
4.7 Capital
The ‘‘Capital’’ worksheet contains the
results of the required capital calculations as
described below, and provides a method to
calculate the level of initial capital that
would permit Farmer Mac to maintain
positive capital throughout the 10-year stress
test period.
5.0 Capital Calculation
a. The stress test computes regulatory
capital as the sum of the following:
(1) The par value of outstanding common
stock;
(2) The par value of outstanding preferred
stock;
(3) Paid-in capital;
(4) Retained earnings; and
(5) Reserve for loan and guarantee losses.
b. Inclusion of the reserve account in
regulatory capital is an important difference
compared to minimum capital as defined by
the statute. Therefore, the calculation of
reserves in the stress test is also important
VerDate Aug<31>2005
16:12 Dec 22, 2006
Jkt 211001
because reserves are reduced by loan and
guarantee losses. The reserve account is
linked to the income statement through the
provision for loan-loss expense (provision).
Provision expense reflects the amount of
current income necessary to rebuild the
reserve account to acceptable levels after loan
losses reduce the account or as a result of
increases in the level of risky mortgage
positions, both on- and off-balance sheet.
Provision reversals represent reductions in
the reserve levels due to reduced risk of loan
losses or loan volume of risky mortgage
positions. The liabilities section of the
‘‘Balance Sheets’’ worksheet also includes
separate line items to disaggregate the
Guarantee and commitment obligation
related to the Financial Accounting
Standards Board Interpretation No. 45 (FIN
45) Guarantor’s Accounting and Disclosure
Requirements for Guarantees, Including
Indirect Guarantees of Indebtedness of
Others. This item is disaggregated to permit
accurate calculation of regulatory capital
post-adoption of FIN 45. When calculating
the stress test, the reserve is maintained at
zero to result in a risk-based capital
requirement that includes reserves, thereby
making the requirement comparable to the
statutory definition of regulatory capital. By
setting the reserve requirement to zero, the
capital position includes all financial
resources Farmer Mac has at its disposal to
withstand risk.
5.1 Method of Calculation
a. Risk-based capital is calculated in the
stress test as the minimum initial capital that
would permit Farmer Mac to remain solvent
for the ensuing 10 years. To this amount, an
additional 30 percent is added to account for
managerial and operational risks not
reflected in the specific components of the
stress test.
b. The relationship between the solvency
constraint (i.e., future capital position not
less than zero) and the risk-based capital
requirement reflects the appropriate earnings
and funding cost rates that may vary through
time based on initial conditions. Therefore,
the minimum capital at a future point in time
cannot be directly used to determine the riskbased capital requirement. To calculate the
risk-based capital requirement, the stress test
includes a section to solve for the minimum
initial capital value that results in a
minimum capital level over the 10 years of
zero at the point in time that it would
actually occur. In solving for initial capital,
it is assumed that reductions or additions to
the initial capital accounts are made in the
retained earnings accounts, and balanced in
the debt accounts at terms proportionate to
initial balances (same relative proportion of
long- and short-term debt at existing initial
rates). Because the initial capital position
affects the earnings, and hence capital
positions and appropriate discount rates
through time, the initial and future capital
are simultaneously determined and must be
solved iteratively. The resulting minimum
initial capital from the stress test is then
reported on the ‘‘Capital’’ worksheet of the
stress test. The ‘‘Capital’’ worksheet includes
an element that uses Excel’s ‘‘solver’’ or ‘‘goal
seek’’ capability to calculate the minimum
PO 00000
Frm 00018
Fmt 4700
Sfmt 4700
initial capital that, when added (subtracted)
from initial capital and replaced with debt,
results in a minimum capital balance over
the following 10 years of zero.
PART 655—FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL
MORTGAGE CORPORATION
DISCLOSURE AND REPORTING
REQUIREMENTS
3. The authority citation for part 655
continues to read as follows:
I
Authority: Sec. 8.11 of the Farm Credit Act
(12 U.S.C. 2279aa–11).
Subpart B—Reports Relating to
Securities Activities of the Federal
Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
§ 655.50
[Amended]
4. Section 655.50 is amended by
removing the word ‘‘should’’ and
adding in its place, the word ‘‘must’’ in
the second sentence of paragraph (c).
I
Dated: December 15, 2006.
James M. Morris,
Acting Secretary, Farm Credit Administration
Board.
[FR Doc. E6–21831 Filed 12–22–06; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6705–01–P
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
14 CFR Part 39
[Docket No. FAA–2006–26492; Directorate
Identifier 2006–CE–77–AD; Amendment 39–
14861; AD 2006–26–03]
RIN 2120–AA64
Airworthiness Directives; Alpha
Aviation Design Limited (Type
Certificate No. A48EU formerly held by
APEX Aircraft and AVIONS PIERRE
ROBIN), Model R2160 Airplanes
Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), DOT.
ACTION: Final rule; request for
comments.
AGENCY:
SUMMARY: The FAA is adopting a new
airworthiness directive (AD) for certain
Alpha Aviation Model R2160 airplanes.
This AD requires you to inspect the fuel
pressure indication system for leakage at
the end of the adapter in the fuel
pressure indication system. This AD
results from the possibility of fuel
leakage at the end of the adapter in the
fuel pressure indication system. We are
issuing this AD to detect, correct, and
prevent fuel leaks in the fuel pressure
indicating system. This failure could
allow fuel to leak near the exhaust
manifold and lead to a fire.
E:\FR\FM\26DER1.SGM
26DER1
Agencies
[Federal Register Volume 71, Number 247 (Tuesday, December 26, 2006)]
[Rules and Regulations]
[Pages 77247-77262]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Printing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: E6-21831]
=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION
12 CFR Parts 652 and 655
RIN 3052-AC17
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding and Fiscal
Affairs; Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Disclosure and
Reporting Requirements; Risk-Based Capital Requirements
AGENCY: Farm Credit Administration.
ACTION: Final rule.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
SUMMARY: The Farm Credit Administration (FCA, Agency, we) is amending
regulations governing the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
(Farmer Mac or the Corporation) risk-based capital stress test (RBCST
or model). We are making these amendments in response to changing
financial markets, new business practices and the evolution of the loan
portfolio at Farmer Mac, as well as continued development of industry
best practices among leading financial institutions. The rule modifies
regulations in 12 CFR part 652, subpart B. The rule is intended to more
accurately reflect risk in the model in order to improve the model's
output--Farmer Mac's regulatory minimum risk-based capital level. The
rule also clarifies Farmer Mac's reporting requirements in Sec.
655.50(c).
DATES: Effective Date: This regulation will be effective the later of
30 days after publication in the Federal Register during which time
either or both Houses of Congress are in session, or March 31, 2007. We
will publish a notice of the effective date in the Federal Register.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Joseph T. Connor, Associate Director for Policy and Analysis, Office of
Secondary Market Oversight, Farm Credit Administration, McLean, VA
22102-5090, (703) 883-4280, TTY (703) 883-4434;
or
Rebecca S. Orlich, Senior Counsel, Office of the General Counsel, Farm
Credit Administration, McLean, VA 22102-5090, (703) 883-4020, TTY (703)
883-4020.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
I. Purpose
The purpose of this rule is to revise the risk-based capital (RBC)
regulations that apply to Farmer Mac. Our proposed rule was published
in the Federal Register on November 17, 2005.\1\ The final rule makes
the following changes to the RBCST:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 79 FR 69692. See the preamble to our proposed rule for a
full discussion of our proposed changes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Establishes specific proxy values for loans with missing or
anomalous or ambiguous data. In the final rule, the Debt-to-Assets
ratio (DA) proxy value is 0.50, the Loan-to-Value ratio (LTV) remains
at 0.70, and the Debt Service Coverage ratio (DSC) is 1.25.
2. Requires the application of known data on Long-term Standby
Purchase Commitment (Standby) loans in the model.
3. Revises the estimate of future years' miscellaneous income to
the annualized 3-year weighted average of the most recent quarterly
miscellaneous income rate as a fraction of the current quarter's sum of
cash, investments, guaranteed securities, and loans held for
investment.
4. Revises the treatment of gain on sale of agricultural mortgage-
backed securities (AMBS) by applying the 3-year gain rate factor to the
most recent 4 quarters of AMBS sales.
5. Revises the method used to estimate operating expenses to a
moving-average of operating expenses as a percent of non-program assets
and on- and off-balance sheet program investments.
The proposed rule also included provisions related to improved
estimates of the carrying costs of troubled loans by revising
assumptions regarding Loan Loss Resolution Timing (LLRT), and related
to adding a component to reflect counterparty risk. These two items are
not included in the final rule. The Agency plans to address these
issues in a future rulemaking.
In developing this rule, we considered the comments and
recommendations pertaining to the RBCST in the Government
Accountability Office (GAO) report entitled, ``Farmer Mac: Some
Progress Made, but Greater Attention to Risk Management, Mission, and
Corporate Governance is Needed.'' \2\ We also met with Farmer Mac
representatives on several occasions prior to the development of the
proposed rule and discussed possible Agency revisions to the RBCST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ United States General Accounting Office, Farmer Mac: Some
Progress Made, but Greater Attention to Risk Management, Mission,
and Corporate Governance is Needed, GAO-04-116 (2003). At the time
of the report's publication, the GAO was known as the General
Accounting Office.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
II. Background
Our analysis of the RBCST has identified a need to update the model
in response to changing financial markets, new business practices and
the evolution of the loan portfolio at Farmer Mac, as well as continued
development of industry best practices among leading financial
institutions. Our goal is to ensure that the RBCST reflects changes in
the Corporation's business structure and loan portfolio that have
occurred since the model was originally developed by FCA, while
complying with the statutory requirements and constraints on the
model's design.
Our proposed rule was published in the Federal Register on November
17, 2005, and provided for a 90-day comment period to end on February
15, 2006. We later extended and reopened the comment period, which
ended on May 17, 2006.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ In response to requests from commenters, we extended the
original comment period to April 17, 2006 (71 FR 7446, Feb. 13,
2006), and subsequently reopened the comment period until May 17,
2006 (71 FR 24613, Apr. 26, 2006).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
III. Comments
We received seven comment letters on the proposed rule from the
following: Farmer Mac, the Farm Credit Bank of Texas (FCBT), AgFirst
Farm Credit Bank (AgFirst), U.S. AgBank FCB (U.S. AgBank), Sacramento
Valley Farm Credit (Sac Valley), First Dakota National Bank (Dakota
Mac), and AgStar
[[Page 77248]]
Financial Services, ACA (AgStar).\4\ In general, the commenters agreed
with FCA's objective to revise the RBCST to reflect Farmer Mac's actual
business risks more accurately but asserted that our proposal would not
achieve that objective. The commenters contended that the proposed
changes would result in a risk-based capital requirement that is higher
than it should be and would drive up the cost of doing business with
Farmer Mac. Specific comments were primarily focused on two changes:
(1) The proposed data proxy values for loans with missing data; and (2)
the method of implementing the carrying cost of nonperforming loans.
The latter provision is not included in this final rule.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ All of the commenters except Dakota Mac are Farm Credit
institutions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Summary of the Provisions of the Final Rule and FCA's Responses to
Comments
We begin by summarizing and responding to general comments on the
proposed rule and then provide a summary of specific comments on the
proposed rule and FCA's responses to the comments.
A. General Comments
FCBT stated that its chief concern was that certain proposed
changes appear to have been selected primarily for the purpose of
increasing the risk-based capital requirement. FCBT and each of the
other commenters criticized the proposed rule as not being based on
Farmer Mac's actual underwriting practices and loss experience.
U.S. AgBank called the proposed regulation overly prescriptive and
stated that it would be better for FCA to direct Farmer Mac to create
an RBCST calculation process that complies with the statute, than to
continue the FCA-designed risk-based capital model. U.S. AgBank also
stressed the importance of a model that is statistically valid and not
biased toward overly conservative assumptions, thereby avoiding
artificial results that could result in unintended consequences. It
asserted that such consequences could include the compromising of sound
governance practices at Farmer Mac and of management's accountability
to its shareholders. Finally, U.S. AgBank said that the model is too
inflexible given the dynamic nature of agricultural finance and Farmer
Mac's lines of business that include unique risk factors such as part-
time farm loans.
Sac Valley, FCBT, and AgFirst also provided their general support
for the comments submitted by Farmer Mac. Sac Valley stated its
concurrence with FCA's objective of estimating risk-based capital in a
way that reflects the risks of Farmer Mac's business and incorporates
as much as possible best business practices.
B. Proxy Data Values for Loans With Missing or Anomalous Loan
Origination Data and for Standby Loans--Appendix A, Section 4.1 d.
1. FCA's Proposal
As noted in the preamble to the proposed rule, the RBCST model was
designed to use loan origination data--specifically the loan amount,
DA, LTV, and DSC to estimate the lifetime probability of default on the
loans, which is then seasoned to reflect the current age of the loan.
At the time the model was designed, Farmer Mac had complete origination
data for most loans in its portfolio. In 1998, it had complete
origination data on approximately 88 percent of Cash Window loans,
excluding pre-1996 loans. For the remaining loans, state-level average
loss rates estimated from the loans with complete data were applied to
loans where data were missing.
Today, a significant proportion of Farmer Mac's current portfolio
has incomplete or anomalous loan origination data, or has data that are
not used in the model. Some data are missing because Farmer Mac has
several programs whose underwriting standards do not require the
collection of such data. These programs include part-time farm,
seasoned and fast-track loans. In addition, the model treats unseasoned
Standby loans for which loan origination data are available as if the
loan data were missing. This means that, as of June 30, 2006, complete
loan origination data were available, and used in the RBCST, on well
under half of Farmer Mac's loan portfolio, excluding pre-1996 loans. We
proposed to revise this part of the model to replace the application of
state-level loss estimates with the application of specified proxy
values to all loans with missing or anomalous data, and to use known
data for unseasoned Standby loans when such data are known. The proxy
values we proposed were a DA ratio of 0.60, an LTV ratio of 0.70, and a
DSC ratio of 1.20. As we explained in the preamble to the proposed
rule, we chose conservative proxy values directly related to Farmer
Mac's underwriting standards on the ground that using conservative
proxy data best preserves the theoretical and structural integrity of
the RBCST.
2. Comments
Farmer Mac agreed that the use of proxy values could be appropriate
in these circumstances. It asserted, however, that the proposed proxy
values are flawed because they are ``inconsistent with Farmer Mac's
underwriting standards for the vast majority of full-time farm loans,
as well as with Farmer Mac's own risk exposure in actual practice'';
that they are ``arbitrary, unsupported by any reasoned methodology, and
based on'' an incorrect interpretation of the Act; that they are
``unacceptable because they do not correlate strongly, or even
adequately, to Farmer Mac's actual core business and underwriting
standards''; and that it knows of no requirement in the Act that the
loans ``should, unto themselves, represent a worst-case scenario for
the abuse of Farmer Mac underwriting discretion.'' Farmer Mac asserted
that, ``if there is available information that would more closely
approximate Farmer Mac's actual book of business, it should be
utilized, as opposed to unrelated conservative proxy values.'' Farmer
Mac raised a concern that the proposed proxy values ``likely will''
distort or misrepresent the risks of its business and ``create
unintended incentives for or against particular classes of loans.''
Farmer Mac recommended that the proxy values be based instead on
its historical loan data, using a statistical process for the
imputation of missing data, or alternatively selecting cutoff
percentiles. Farmer Mac described possible methodologies and stated its
view that there was no reason to depart from the model's current
method, which it characterized as most similar to treatment of data
that are ``Missing Completely At Random,'' absent ``evidence that [the
current method] is untenable.'' Farmer Mac also contended that two of
the proxy values, DA and DSC, are not relevant to its underwriting
standards for part-time farm loans and offered to work with FCA to
develop an appropriate RBCST submodel for those loans.
The other commenters submitted comments that were very much in line
with Farmer Mac's. They asserted that:
The proxy values appear arbitrary and not supported in the
preamble to the proposed rule by any defined methodology or evidence;
The proxy values are not representative of the commenters'
loan experience with Farmer Mac or with Farmer Mac's portfolio (as
understood by the commenters) and are not representative of Farmer
Mac's underwriting standards; and
[[Page 77249]]
The proposal, by requiring Farmer Mac to hold capital in
excess of actual risk, could cause Farmer Mac to increase fees and
could harm the secondary agricultural loan market and the commenters'
business with Farmer Mac.
The commenters recommended basing the proxy values on Farmer Mac
historical loan data and using a ``well defined methodology'' to
determine the values. In the section below, we address specific
comments of Farmer Mac and other commenters.
3. Final Rule
In the final rule, we establish proxy values for the DA, LTV, and
DSC ratios that are related to Farmer Mac's underwriting standards, but
we have moderated them somewhat from the proposed rule. In the final
rule, the DA ratio proxy value is 0.50, down from 0.60 in the proposed
rule; the LTV ratio remains at 0.70, the same value as in the proposed
rule; and the DSC ratio is 1.25, up from 1.20 in the proposed rule.
Upon further review and consideration of the ranges of Farmer Mac's
underwriting standards and the relative proportions of the various loan
types in the portfolio, we have decided that these values are more
appropriate to the underwriting standards for the loan types that make
up the preponderance of Farmer Mac's portfolio. In our judgment, these
proxy values are appropriate for application to loan programs that have
different underwriting standards but account for a smaller proportion
of the portfolio. We believe these values are still sufficiently
conservative to maintain the theoretical integrity of the model while
avoiding unintended consequences related to inappropriate incentives to
underwrite more aggressively in reduced-documentation loan programs. We
note that, if the relative proportions of various loan types with
differing underwriting standards change over time, the Agency may
consider further adjustment to the proxy values.
We disagree with many of the comments we received. To begin with,
we do not believe our proposal is based on an incorrect interpretation
of the Act or that it imposes ``worst-case'' proxy values. The Act
provides FCA with significant discretion in establishing the RBCST.
Section 8.32 of the Act states that the FCA (through the Director of
the Office of Secondary Market Oversight (OSMO)) must, among other
things, ``take into account appropriate distinctions based on various
types of agricultural mortgage products, varying terms of Treasury
obligations, and any other factors the Director considers appropriate *
* *.'' \5\ The model uses, and will continue to use, Farmer Mac's
``actual book of business'' as represented by actual data. The
incompleteness or non-use of loan origination data for what is now a
significant portion of Farmer Mac's portfolio is an important factor in
evaluating the reliability of the RBCST output. The Agency must decide
how best to treat the loans whose data are not in the model. We believe
the model's current treatment is no longer adequate to represent loan
risk for such a large portion of the portfolio. Our choice of
conservative proxy values takes into consideration not only the role of
the FCA to provide for the general supervision of the safe and sound
performance of Farmer Mac under section 8.11(a) of the Act, but also
Farmer Mac's actual loan data and practices. We do not believe the
proxy values represent a ``worst-case scenario.'' In setting the proxy
values, we considered Farmer Mac's actual practice of accepting loans
with ratios that are riskier than those permitted under its
underwriting standards when the loan has compensating strengths in
other ratios or risk indicators. A ``worst-case'' approach would have
yielded proxy values much higher than the proposed DA and LTV and much
lower than the DSC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ 12 U.S.C. 2279bb-1(b)(1)(A).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We considered Farmer Mac's suggestion to substitute values based on
Farmer Mac's historical loan data for the missing data.\6\ In our
judgment, the historical data are not necessarily representative of the
portion of the portfolio that is missing data, and they are not
necessarily representative of Farmer Mac's future underwriting
practices on loans for which they will not collect complete data. We do
not agree with the underlying assumption of the comments that the
historical loan data on full-time farm loans would correlate strongly
with the loans missing data. In a circumstance where we cannot know the
predictive value of the historical loan data, we do not agree that a
valid statistical methodology is available to set the proxy levels.
Moreover, as we have noted, the loans for which loan origination data
are complete now represent a much smaller proportion of Farmer Mac's
loan portfolio. Therefore, we concluded that using the historical data
is not the best means to determine appropriate proxy values.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ We note that the current version of the RBC model, through
its application of average loss rates by state to loans with missing
data, is similar to the approach recommended in the comment. The
insufficiency of this approach and the significant proportion of
loans that have incomplete data are, in fact, the conditions that
prompted the development of this revision to the RBCST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
A statistical approach suggested by Farmer Mac is the SAS Proc MI
multiple imputation (MI) procedure for developing consistent estimates
of confidence limits around the mean of each individual underwriting
variable for loans for which data existed. The implication is that
these estimates would be appropriate for use as proxies in cases where
the underwriting data were absent in individual loans. The specific
process demonstrated assumes that the underwriting data are
multivariate normal and that the missing elements may depend on the
remaining observed variables, but not on their own values. The
resampling method generates consistent estimates of the variances from
which confidence limits around the statistics can be constructed.
The MI methods cited in the comment are most often used in efforts
to avoid deletion of observations in data sets with partially missing
data, but for which portions of the covariate data sets exist.\7\ The
use of no additional independent variables (e.g., age, loan size) which
are observable across loans both with and without underwriting data
implies: (i) No conditioning on additional variables was considered,
and (ii) an assumption of equivalent distributions between those
missing data and those not missing data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ For example, if multiple health factors/indicators
individually contribute to incidence rates of a serious health
problem, but not all variables are observed or collected on all
individuals, MI procedures allow the use of the data with incomplete
measures across the independent variables rather than excluding
entire observations that are missing only portions of their
independent variables.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We do not agree that the Farmer Mac-suggested method provides a
reasonable method for identifying candidate proxy values for numerous
reasons. First, we did not intend that the proxies represent mean
values of the underwriting data in cases where the data exist, or as
conditioned by the pattern of missing data from cases missing only a
portion of the underwriting variables. We do not believe that this
approach is reasonable given the stark differences in other
characteristics of the subset of loans that do and do not have complete
underwriting data. To emphasize this point, Table 1 is provided which
summarizes key attributes of the loans grouped by whether the loan
observation received at least one proxy value due to missing or
anomalous data.
[[Page 77250]]
Table 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------
No proxy At least 1
Data data proxy Combined
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Age (in years)........... 5.83 11.83 9.16
Average Current Balance.......... $433,568 $164,542 $284,199
Average Original Balance......... $570,119 $267,039 $401,842
Number of Loans.................. 7,269 9,074 16,343
------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in the table, the loans missing data are considerably
older (rendering the cases where a portion of the underwriting data
does exist to be less likely to be reliable), have much smaller
original balances, and have correspondingly lower current balances.
Standard tests of the equivalence of means strongly reject the
hypothesis of equivalence of the means between the two groups of loans
by age, original size, or current balance (p-value = 0.0000, all
cases).
As an alternative to using an imputation methodology, Farmer Mac
also suggested that percentile cutoffs of actual ratios in its
portfolio of unseasoned standard full-time farm loans should be
considered as an acceptable method to derive proxies, though less
appropriate (in their view) than imputation of mean values. Farmer Mac
asserted that the proposed proxy levels are statistical outliers.\8\ In
general, we have the same concern here as with the multiple imputation
approach regarding basing proxy values on historical measurements of a
potentially uncorrelated portfolio. The appropriateness of using a
cutoff percentile depends on the congruence in the data between the set
missing underwriting data and those with data. Moreover, the
distribution around a given ``consistent'' percentile choice is not
necessarily comparable across the three underwriting variables (i.e.,
there may be only a small ``distance'' between the 95th percentile and
the maximum D/A in the available data, while there is a large
``distance'' from the 95th percentile of the order-adjusted DSC to the
most undesirable one in the data set).\9\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\8\ The proposed DA proxy equated to the 95th percentile of
Farmer Mac's portfolio of unseasoned full-time farm loans, the
proposed LTV proxy equated to some percentile in excess of the 90th
percentile, and the proposed DSC proxy equated to some percentile in
excess of the 5th percentile (or, for greater ease of comparison,
its inverse--the 95th percentile). In the final rule, the proxy
values would equate to the 91st, 90th, and 9th percentiles
respectively, as of June 30, 2006. Although we did not base our
proxy values on the percentile cutoffs, we believe the relationships
of those values to the percentile cutoffs is appropriate.
\9\ Farmer Mac contends that the proposed proxies represent
outliers in the data. However, we note that its comment includes a
table showing that the proxy values indicated by the 95th
percentiles in the set of unseasoned Full-time Farm loans all exceed
Farmer Mac's underwriting limits for such loans. Thus, the proxy
values would not appear to be unreasonably conservative.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
We would also note that average loss rates generated by the RBCST's
Credit Loss Module (CLM) are not especially sensitive to the level of
the proxy values. To illustrate this point, we provide the following
data tables. Table 2A sets forth the average loss rates generated by
the CLM as of June 30, 2006, under various LTV and DA proxy value
combinations, keeping DSC constant at 1.25. The table indicates that
the average loss rate across all combinations presented varies within a
range of 27 basis points. Under the final rule's proxy values (0.50,
0.70, and 1.25, for DA, LTV, and DSC proxies, respectively) the table
shows that at June 30, 2006 the average loss rate would have been 3.782
percent.
Table 2A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DSC proxy = 1.25 LTV proxies
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DA Proxies.................... .......... 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80
0.45 3.694% 3.706% 3.724% 3.748% 3.783%
0.50 3.751% 3.764% 3.782% 3.807% 3.842%
0.55 3.811% 3.824% 3.843% 3.869% 3.905%
0.60 3.874% 3.888% 3.907% 3.934% 3.966%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2B presents the calculated average loss rate across
combinations of DCS and DA ratios, holding LTV constant. Under these
combinations, the average loss rate varies within a range of 16 basis
points.
Table 2B
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LTV proxy = 0.70 DSC proxies
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DA Proxies.............................. .......... 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35
0.45 3.736% 3.730% 3.724% 3.718% 3.712%
0.50 3.794% 3.788% 3.782% 3.775% 3.769%
0.55 3.856% 3.849% 3.843% 3.836% 3.830%
0.60 3.921% 3.914% 3.907% 3.900% 3.894%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 2C presents the variation in the calculated average loss rate
across combinations of DCS and LTV ratios, holding DA constant at the
level in the final rule. Under these combinations, the average loss
rate varies within a range of just 3 basis points.
[[Page 77251]]
Table 2C
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DA proxy = 0.50 DSC proxies
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LTV proxies............................. .......... 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35
0.60 3.763% 3.757% 3.751% 3.745% 3.739%
0.65 3.776% 3.770% 3.764% 3.757% 3.751%
0.70 3.794% 3.788% 3.782% 3.775% 3.769%
0.75 3.820% 3.814% 3.807% 3.801% 3.795%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rather than focusing on the distribution of underwriting ratios in
the existing loan data sets through time, we instead chose proxy values
that are near the conservative limits of the range of values that are
acceptable to Farmer Mac under its underwriting standards for different
types of loans (including, but not limited to, full-time farm loans).
In addition, we took into consideration that Farmer Mac can accept
underwriting ratios that exceed the stated ranges of its underwriting
standards.\10\ We intended that the proxy values be sufficiently
conservative to avoid underestimating the risk in the portfolio, but
not at the extremes of Farmer Mac's underwriting standards. This
approach recognizes that Farmer Mac would be unlikely to underwrite
loans at its underwriting limits in each ratio category. These values
are acceptable to Farmer Mac for underwriting purposes, as demonstrated
by both its policies and its practices. Therefore, we believe that the
proxy values are realistic as well as conservative and reflect Farmer
Mac's actual business practices.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\10\ We note Farmer Mac's actual practice of accepting loans
with ratios that are outside of the ranges, as permitted under its
underwriting standards when the loan has compensating strengths in
other ratios or risk indicators.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farmer Mac's comment that the proposed proxy values ``likely will''
distort or misrepresent the risks of its business, as well as create
unintended incentives for or against particular classes of loans, did
not make clear exactly what unintended incentives or what classes of
loans Farmer Mac had in mind. We would agree that, on an individual
loan basis, using proxy data will ``misrepresent'' the loan to the
extent that the proxy values understate or overstate the level of
actual risk in the loan. The problem of the likely inexactitude in the
calculation is necessitated by, and a direct result of, the uncertainty
created by the missing data. This uncertainty is itself one component
of the risk in Farmer Mac's loan portfolio. We believe that applying
conservative proxy values is a way to consider adequately the actual
risk in the loan as well as the added risk associated with this
uncertainty. With respect to unintended incentives, it is true that,
however we decide to treat loans with missing data--for example, if we
were to apply proxy values based on historical loan data or related to
underwriting standards, or even if we entirely removed loans with
missing data from the model--we could create incentives for Farmer Mac
and its business partners to expand or contract one or more lines of
business or to modify program requirements. Indeed, in the model's
current treatment of loans with missing data, one could argue that
using state-level loss estimates may have been a disincentive for
Farmer Mac to collect loan origination data in some cases. We believe
that the proxy values in the final rule will minimize any potential
incentive not to collect loan origination data on the great majority of
loans, without providing inappropriate incentives to continue or
terminate worthy and needed loan products.
As we described above, Farmer Mac offered to work with FCA to
develop an appropriate RBCST submodel for part-time farm loans since,
in Farmer Mac's stated view, the DA and DSC ratios are ``not relevant''
to its underwriting standards for such loans.\11\ FCA weighed the added
complexity of a submodel against potential benefits in improved
accuracy of the RBC model's output, as well as the potential
disincentive that might be created to underwrite part-time farm
business in the absence of such a submodel. By our calculation of
Farmer Mac-submitted data, the part-time farm loan volume is a very
small percentage of the total modeled portfolio as of June 30, 2006. We
do not consider this amount to be substantial and, therefore, do not
see a compelling reason to add complexity to the model by adding a
submodel at this time. We could consider a submodel in the future if
the Corporation's part-time farm loan volume grows. We believe that the
selected proxy data values appropriately balance the risk of a
disincentive to underwrite part-time loans with the risk of an
inappropriate incentive to underwrite more loans of this type with risk
characteristics that exceed those of the proxy values.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\11\ Notwithstanding Farmer Mac's assertion that the DA and DSC
ratios are not relevant, not all part-time farm loans are missing
those data in Farmer Mac's submission of the RBCST as of June 30,
2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
AgStar commented specifically that the proxy values would reflect
an especially unrealistic risk estimate on seasoned loans. We disagree
with the comment because the model's loan seasoning adjustment occurs
after loss rates are estimated. Therefore, the risk in seasoned loans
in Farmer Mac's portfolio would continue to be adjusted downward in
accordance with Section 2.2 of Appendix A. We expect the impact of the
seasoning adjustment to be similar in magnitude in the revised RBCST
model regardless of whether the proxy values are applied. The reason is
that the model recognizes substantial risk mitigation through its
seasoning adjustment component. However, we note that when a loan's
origination date is among the missing data, and therefore age is not
determinable, the final rule will substitute the ``cut off'' date for
the origination date. In such cases, if a loan were several years old
and only recently taken into Farmer Mac's portfolio, the risk-
mitigation of its true age could not be recognized. We believe our
approach recognizes the risk created when a loan's origination date is
not collected in a low-documentation loan program.
AgStar also noted that recent unseasoned loans placed in the
Standby program are better quality than the proxy values would
estimate. While AgStar may have good information to substantiate this
claim, if these loan records do not contain that information, the
Agency must address the resulting uncertainty (i.e., risk). If a
primary lender consistently has such information on Standby loans, it
could benefit from including these data in the loan data submitted
under the Standby program regardless of whether such data are required
under the Standby program.
C. Calculation of Miscellaneous Income and Gain on Sale of AMBS--
Appendix A, Section 4.2(3)
Farmer Mac commented that more accurate moving average calculations
of miscellaneous income and gain on sale of AMBS would be achieved by
first
[[Page 77252]]
calculating individual ratios, annualizing the ratios and then
computing the moving average over the appropriate time horizon. We do
not agree that Farmer Mac's suggested approach would be more accurate.
Our approach provides a volume-weighted measure of miscellaneous income
that is more accurate and generally less sensitive to variations in
asset volumes than the Farmer Mac-suggested approach. Under Farmer
Mac's suggested approach, each individual observation has the same
weight regardless of the level of the relevant assets. The weighted
average approach to AMBS avoids counting each undefined (0/0) ratio as
an individual observation which would skew the average.
Similarly, in the case of gain on sale of AMBS, we believe our
approach to generating the weighted average rate of gain is less
potentially volatile than the Farmer Mac-suggested approach. Moreover,
Farmer Mac's suggestion that the calculated amount be annualized would
be incorrectly applied in this case, regardless of the method adopted,
because the calculated rate is as applicable and appropriate on an
annual basis as it is on a quarterly basis. To multiply the calculated
rate by 4 would overstate the rate of gain.
D. Operating Expense Regression Equation--Appendix A, Section 4.2(3)
In the RBCST's operating expense regression equation, we proposed a
change that would remove the dummy variable from the equation and
include multiple variables to account for different business
activities.
Farmer Mac agreed in principle with the extension of the
independent variables in the regression and the elimination of the
dummy variable but argued that the intent of the proposed regression
was to provide marginal impacts of different activities to the
operating expenses. It observed that the individual coefficient signs
are not entirely consistent with expected relationships and offered two
alternative proposals to enable projections of their operating expenses
to be applied within the model. The first alternative proposed involves
calculation of a simple average of recent operating expenses applied as
a constant in the model. They refer to this approach as being analogous
to that used to estimate MI rates and gains on AMBS rates.
The second approach offered by Farmer Mac involves a regression
framework across similar expense categories as proposed by us, but
expresses these in cost share form. Their proposed approach contains
similar drawbacks as those Farmer Mac raised regarding FCA's proposed
approach and suffers specific problems in expressing logarithms of
values which may be zero at times.
In light of the recent evolution of their cost structures and
changing relative scales of their program activities, we agree with the
comment that an approach to accurately reflect their cost structures
can be obtained from recent data and applied forward within the
existing constructs of the model. Farmer Mac proposes the use of
average expenses to reflect future experiences. We note that in periods
of increasing costs, the recent average will have a negative bias, and
during periods of decreasing costs, that there will be a positive bias.
We accept the moving average application of expenses and agree that it
is consistent with the spirit of the calculations of the rates for
miscellaneous income and gains on sales of AMBSs. In specific
application, we require that the operating expense rate be calculated
as the average of operating expense rates calculated as the annualized
expenses as shares of the sum of on-balance sheet assets and off-
balance sheet program activities over the most recent 4 quarters
inclusive of the current submission date. This average rate is applied
to the current quarter's on-balance sheet assets and off-balance sheet
program activities. That share will then be applied forward to the
balances of the same categories throughout the 10-year period of the
RBCST model.
E. Change to Disclosure Regulations
We proposed to clarify Sec. 655.50(c) to state that Farmer Mac
must provide FCA with copies of its substantive correspondence with the
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We received no comments on
this proposal and adopt it without change in the final rule.
V. Issues Not Addressed in Final Rule
A. Carrying Costs of Troubled Loans--Appendix A, Section 4.2(3)
We proposed to improve estimates of carrying costs of troubled
loans by revising the Loan Loss Resolution Timing to reflect that
problem loans may take longer than the 1 year assumed in the existing
model's loss-severity rate. Farmer Mac commented that it agreed with
aspects of the proposed change but had concerns about some of the
modifications, as well as the validity of certain assumptions we made.
The Agency has elected to address this revision in a future
rulemaking out of a desire to review further the scaling factor applied
to loan loss volume in order to estimate the amount of associated
unpaid principal balance, and to review any new information that may be
available from Farmer Mac regarding its actual loan resolution timing.
The proposed scaling factor is derived from the average principal
amortization of loans in the current portfolio and would be
recalculated on a quarterly basis. While we received no comments on the
scaling factor, we believe that the principal amortization of actual
nonperforming loans at Farmer Mac might provide an opportunity to
improve the estimate of unpaid principal balance associated with
nonperforming loans during the LLRT period.
B. Spreadsheet Linkage for Funding Off-Balance Sheet Loans
This comment from Farmer Mac deals with a component of the revision
dealing with the carrying cost of nonperforming loans. Because the
Agency has elected to address this revision in a future rulemaking for
reasons explained in ``A'' above, we do not address this comment here.
C. Adding a Component To Reflect Counterparty Risk--Appendix A, Section
4.1e.
The proposed rule's provisions related to the estimation of
counterparty risk are not included in the final rule and will be
addressed by the Agency in a future rulemaking. Specifically, while we
received no comments on the approach to identifying or applying the
counterparty risk component, we have elected to review the Office of
Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) haircut levels, confirm
the applicability of the OFHEO haircut schedules for application to
yields rather than individual cash flows, and consider the formal
development of a calculation tool with fixed-category investment
instrument definitions.
In the preamble to the proposed rule, we requested comment on
potential methods to incorporate three specific risks into the model in
future proposed regulations. The three risks are: The risk associated
with the AgVantage portfolio; the risk of a stress-induced increase in
Farmer Mac's cost of funds; and the counterparty risk associated with
the derivatives portfolio and specifically the replacement cost of
defaulted derivative contracts. However, we received no comments on
these topics.
[[Page 77253]]
VI. Other Comments Received
A. Method of Historical Loss Estimation
Farmer Mac reiterated comments it made to our first rule
implementing the RBCST that was published in the Federal Register on
November 12, 1999. (See 64 FR 61740.) The comments criticize the
methodology employed to quantify the worst-case historical benchmark
loss experience, stating that it is unsubstantiated by actual loss
experience. In this rulemaking, we proposed no changes related to this
aspect of the RBC model and are, therefore, not adopting Farmer Mac's
recommended changes in the final rule. However, we note that the
Agency's position on this issue remains consistent with our response
that was published in the final rule implementing the RBC model on
April 12, 2001. (See 66 FR 19048.)
B. Spreadsheet Financial Statement Formats
In its comment letter, Farmer Mac asked us to update the RBCST's
Balance Sheet and Income Statement categories. Farmer Mac commented
that populating financial statement data has become time-consuming for
its staff due to changes in its SEC reporting formats that are not
reflected in the RBC model. While we would prefer to make the
submission preparation process as efficient as possible, we have
observed that Farmer Mac's financial statements have been changing
format with relative frequency over recent years. For that reason, we
hesitate to expend resources to modify the formats in the model if
these could become outdated relatively soon. However, we agree that
such updates should be done periodically in order to keep the formats
reasonably close. For that reason, while we have made no changes to the
financial statement formats in this rule, we would expect to make such
changes in consultation with Farmer Mac through the technical change
process (i.e., without rulemaking).
VII. Technical Changes to the RBCST in the Final Rule
In section 4.2b(3)(E) of the Appendix, we have deleted specific
guarantee fee values for post-1996 Farmer Mac I assets, pre-1996 Farmer
Mac I assets, and Farmer Mac II assets because specific values are not
applied in the stress test. The stress test applies quarterly updates,
supplied by Farmer Mac, of the weighted average guarantee rates for
each category of assets.
VIII. Impact of Final Rule Changes on Required Risk-Based Capital
The table below provides an indication of the impact of the
revisions in the quarter ended June 30, 2006. Lines 1 through 4 present
the impacts if only that revision were made to the current version and
the column labeled ``Difference'' calculates the impact of that
individual change for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, compared to the
minimum requirement calculated using the currently active Version 1.25.
Line 5 presents the impact of all of the revisions in Version 2.0 (the
model as revised in this final rule).\12\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\12\ Please note that Farmer Mac announced on October 6, 2006,
that it intends to restate certain financial results for several
recent reporting periods. The calculations in the table could change
based on the restatement.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calculated regulatory minimum capital 6/30/2006 Difference
------------------------------------------------------------------------
RBCST Version 1.25 (calculated as of 6/ 67,660 ..............
30/2006)
RBCST 2.0 Individual Change Impacts:
(1) CLM Changes: Data Proxies and 93,523 25,862
Standby Treatment..................
(2) Miscellaneous Income Treatment.. 59,932 -7,728
(3) Gain on Sale of AMBS............ 67,660 0
(4) Operating Expenses.............. 95,297 27,637
(5) Total RBCST Version 2.0 Impact.. 113,431 45,771
------------------------------------------------------------------------
As shown in the table, implementation of the data proxies and the
revised operating expense estimation result in the greatest impact on
the calculated risk-based capital requirements.
IX. Regulatory Flexibility Act
Pursuant to section 605(b) of the Regulatory Flexibility Act (5
U.S.C. 601 et seq.), FCA hereby certifies the rule will not have a
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
Farmer Mac has assets and annual income over the amounts that would
qualify them as small entities. Therefore, Farmer Mac is not considered
a ``small entity'' as defined in the Regulatory Flexibility Act.
List of Subjects
12 CFR Part 652
Agriculture, Banks, banking, Capital, Investments, Rural areas.
12 CFR Part 655
Accounting, Agriculture, Banks, banking, Accounting and reporting
requirements, Disclosure and reporting requirements, Rural areas.
0
For the reasons stated in the preamble, parts 652 and 655 of chapter
VI, title 12 of the Code of Federal Regulations are amended as follows:
PART 652--FEDERAL AGRICULTURAL MORTGAGE CORPORATION FUNDING AND
FISCAL AFFAIRS
0
1. The authority citation for part 652 continues to read as follows:
Authority: Secs. 4.12, 5.9, 5.17, 8.11, 8.31, 8.32, 8.33, 8.34,
8.35, 8.36, 8.37, 8.41 of the Farm Credit Act (12 U.S.C. 2183, 2243,
2252, 2279aa-11, 2279bb, 2279bb-1, 2279bb-2, 2279bb-3, 2279bb-4,
2279bb-5, 2279bb-6, 2279cc); sec. 514 of Pub. L. 102-552, 106 Stat.
4102; sec. 118 of Pub. L. 104-105, 110 Stat. 168.
0
2. Revise subpart B to part 652 to read as follows:
Subpart B--Risk-Based Capital Requirements
Sec.
652.50 Definitions.
652.55 General.
652.60 Corporation board guidelines.
652.65 Risk-based capital stress test.
652.70 Risk-based capital level.
652.75 Your responsibility for determining the risk-based capital
level.
652.80 When you must determine the risk-based capital level.
652.85 When to report the risk-based capital level.
652.90 How to report your risk-based capital determination.
652.95 Failure to meet capital requirements.
652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.
Appendix A--Subpart B of Part 652--Risk-Based Capital Stress Test
Subpart B--Risk-Based Capital Requirements
Sec. 652.50 Definitions.
For purposes of this subpart, the following definitions will apply:
[[Page 77254]]
Farmer Mac, Corporation, you, and your means the Federal
Agricultural Mortgage Corporation and its affiliates as defined in
subpart A of this part.
Our, us, or we means the Farm Credit Administration.
Regulatory capital means the sum of the following as determined in
accordance with generally accepted accounting principles:
(1) The par value of outstanding common stock;
(2) The par value of outstanding preferred stock;
(3) Paid-in capital, which is the amount of owner investment in
Farmer Mac in excess of the par value of stock;
(4) Retained earnings; and,
(5) Any allowances for losses on loans and guaranteed securities.
Risk-based capital means the amount of regulatory capital
sufficient for Farmer Mac to maintain positive capital during a 10-year
period of stressful conditions as determined by the risk-based capital
stress test described in Sec. 652.65.
Sec. 652.55 General.
You must hold risk-based capital in an amount determined in
accordance with this subpart.
Sec. 652.60 Corporation board guidelines.
(a) Your board of directors is responsible for ensuring that you
maintain total capital at a level that is sufficient to ensure
continued financial viability and--provide for growth. In addition,
your capital must be sufficient to meet statutory and regulatory
requirements.
(b) No later than 65 days after the beginning of Farmer Mac's
planning year, your board of directors must adopt an operational and
strategic business plan for at least the next 3 years. The plan must
include:
(1) A mission statement;
(2) A review of the internal and external factors that are likely
to affect you during the planning period;
(3) Measurable goals and objectives;
(4) Forecasted income, expense, and balance sheet statements for
each year of the plan; and,
(5) A capital adequacy plan.
(c) The capital adequacy plan must include capital targets
necessary to achieve the minimum, critical and risk-based capital
standards specified by the Act and this subpart as well as your capital
adequacy goals. The plan must address any projected dividends, equity
retirements, or other action that may decrease your capital or its
components for which minimum amounts are required by this subpart. You
must specify in your plan the circumstances in which stock or equities
may be retired. In addition to factors that must be considered in
meeting the statutory and regulatory capital standards, your board of
directors must also consider at least the following factors in
developing the capital adequacy plan:
(1) Capability of management;
(2) Strategies and objectives in your business plan;
(3) Quality of operating policies, procedures, and internal
controls;
(4) Quality and quantity of earnings;
(5) Asset quality and the adequacy of the allowance for losses to
absorb potential losses in your retained mortgage portfolio, securities
guaranteed as to principal and interest, commitments to purchase
mortgages or securities, and other program assets or obligations;
(6) Sufficiency of liquidity and the quality of investments; and,
(7) Any other risk-oriented activities, such as funding and
interest rate risks, contingent and off-balance sheet liabilities, or
other conditions warranting additional capital.
Sec. 652.65 Risk-based capital stress test.
You will perform the risk-based capital stress test as described in
summary form below and as described in detail in Appendix A to this
subpart. The risk-based capital stress test spreadsheet is also
available electronically at https://www.fca.gov. The risk-based capital
stress test has five components:
(a) Data requirements. You will use the following data to implement
the risk-based capital stress test.
(1) You will use Corporation loan-level data to implement the
credit risk component of the risk-based capital stress test.
(2) You will use Call Report data as the basis for Corporation data
over the 10-year stress period supplemented with your interest rate
risk measurements and tax data.
(3) You will use other data, including the 10-year Constant
Maturity Treasury (CMT) rate and the applicable Internal Revenue
Service corporate income tax schedule, as further described in Appendix
A to this subpart.
(b) Credit risk. The credit risk part estimates loan losses during
a period of sustained economic stress.
(1) For each loan in the Farmer Mac I portfolio, you will determine
a default probability by using the logit functions specified in
Appendix A to this subpart with each of the following variables:
(i) Borrower's debt-to-asset ratio at loan origination;
(ii) Loan-to-value ratio at origination, which is the loan amount
divided by the value of the property;
(iii) Debt-service-coverage ratio at origination, which is the
borrower's net income (on- and off-farm) plus depreciation, capital
lease payments, and interest, less living expenses and income taxes,
divided by the total term debt payments;
(iv) The origination loan balance stated in 1997 dollars based on
the consumer price index; and,
(v) The worst-case percentage change in farmland values (23.52
percent).
(2) You will then calculate the loss rate by multiplying the
default probability for each loan by the estimated loss-severity rate,
which is the average loss of the defaulted loans in the data set (20.9
percent).
(3) You will calculate losses by multiplying the loss rate by the
origination loan balances stated in 1997 dollars.
(4) You will adjust the losses for loan seasoning, based on the
number of years since loan origination, according to the functions in
Appendix A to this subpart.
(5) The losses must be applied in the risk-based capital stress
test as specified in Appendix A to this subpart.
(c) Interest rate risk. (1) During the first year of the stress
period, you will adjust interest rates for two scenarios, an increase
in rates and a decrease in rates. You must determine your risk-based
capital level based on whichever scenario would require more capital.
(2) You will calculate the interest rate stress based on changes to
the quarterly average of the 10-year CMT. The starting rate is the 3-
month average of the most recent CMT monthly rate series. To calculate
the change in the starting rate, determine the average yield of the
preceding 12 monthly 10-year CMT rates. Then increase and decrease the
starting rate by:
(i) 50 percent of the 12-month average if the average rate is less
than 12 percent; or
(ii) 600 basis points if the 12-month average rate is equal to or
higher than 12 percent.
(3) Following the first year of the stress period, interest rates
remain at the new level for the remainder of the stress period.
(4) You will apply the interest rate changes scenario as indicated
in Appendix A to this subpart.
(5) You may use other interest rate indices in addition to the 10-
year CMT subject to our concurrence, but in no event can your risk-
based capital level be less than that determined by using only the 10-
year CMT.
(d) Cashflow generator. (1) You must adjust your financial
statements based on the credit risk inputs and interest rate risk
inputs described above to
[[Page 77255]]
generate pro forma financial statements for each year of the 10-year
stress test. The cashflow generator produces these financial
statements. You may use the cashflow generator spreadsheet that is
described in Appendix A to this subpart and available electronically at
https://www.fca.gov. You may also use any reliable cashflow program that
can develop or produce pro forma financial statements using generally
accepted accounting principles and widely recognized financial modeling
methods, subject to our concurrence. You may disaggregate financial
data to any greater degree than that specified in Appendix A to this
subpart, subject to our concurrence.
(2) You must use model assumptions to generate financial statements
over the 10-year stress period. The major assumption is that cashflows
generated by the risk-based capital stress test are based on a steady-
state scenario. To implement a steady-state scenario, when on- and off-
balance sheet assets and liabilities amortize or are paid down, you
must replace them with similar assets and liabilities. Replace
amortized assets from discontinued loan programs with current loan
programs. In general, keep assets with small balances in constant
proportions to key program assets.
(3) You must simulate annual pro forma balance sheets and income
statements in the risk-based capital stress test using Farmer Mac's
starting position, the credit risk and interest rate risk components,
resulting cashflow outputs, current operating strategies and policies,
and other inputs as shown in Appendix A to this subpart and the
electronic spreadsheet available at http: //www.fca.gov.
(e) Calculation of capital requirement. The calculations that you
must use to solve for the starting regulatory capital amount are shown
in Appendix A to this subpart and in the electronic spreadsheet
available at https://www.fca.gov.
Sec. 652.70 Risk-based capital level.
The risk-based capital level is the sum of the following amounts:
(a) Credit and interest rate risk. The amount of risk-based capital
determined by the risk-based capital test under Sec. 652.65.
(b) Management and operations risk. Thirty (30) percent of the
amount of risk-based capital determined by the risk-based capital test
in Sec. 652.65.
Sec. 652.75 Your responsibility for determining the risk-based
capital level.
(a) You must determine your risk-based capital level using the
procedures in this subpart, Appendix A to this subpart, and any other
supplemental instructions provided by us. You will report your
determination to us as prescribed in Sec. 652.90. At any time,
however, we may determine your risk-based capital level using the
procedures in Sec. 652.65 and Appendix A to this subpart, and you must
hold risk-based capital in the amount we determine is appropriate.
(b) You must at all times comply with the risk-based capital levels
established by the risk-based capital stress test and must be able to
determine your risk-based capital level at any time.
(c) If at any time the risk-based capital level you determine is
less than the minimum capital requirements set forth in section 8.33 of
the Act, you must maintain the statutory minimum capital level.
Sec. 652.80 When you must determine the risk-based capital level.
(a) You must determine your risk-based capital level at least
quarterly, or whenever changing circumstances occur that have a
significant effect on capital, such as exposure to a high volume of, or
particularly severe, problem loans or a period of rapid growth.
(b) In addition to the requirements of paragraph (a) of this
section, we may require you to determine your risk-based capital level
at any time.
(c) If you anticipate entering into any new business activity that
could have a significant effect on capital, you must determine a pro
forma risk-based capital level, which must include the new business
activity, and report this pro forma determination to the Director,
Office of Secondary Market Oversight, at least 10-business days prior
to implementation of the new business program.
Sec. 652.85 When to report the risk-based capital level.
(a) You must file a risk-based capital report with us each time you
determine your risk-based capital level as required by Sec. 652.80.
(b) You must also report to us at once if you identify in the
interim between quarterly or more frequent reports to us that you are
not in compliance with the risk-based capital level required by Sec.
652.70.
(c) If you make any changes to the data used to calculate your
risk-based capital requirement that cause a material adjustment to the
risk-based capital level you reported to us, you must file an amended
risk-based capital report with us within 5-business days after the date
of such changes;
(d) You must submit your quarterly risk-based capital report for
the last day of the preceding quarter not later than the last business
day of April, July, October, and January of each year.
Sec. 652.90 How to report your risk-based capital determination.
(a) Your risk-based capital report must contain at least the
following information:
(1) All data integral for determining the risk-based capital level,
including any business policy decisions or other assumptions made in
implementing the risk-based capital test;
(2) Other information necessary to determine compliance with the
procedures for determining risk-based capital as specified in Appendix
A to this subpart; and
(3) Any other information we may require in written instructions to
you.
(b) You must submit each risk-based capital report in such format
or medium, as we require.
Sec. 652.95 Failure to meet capital requirements.
(a) Determination and notice. At any time, we may determine that
you are not meeting your risk-based capital level calculated according
to Sec. 652.65, your minimum capital requirements specified in section
8.33 of the Act, or your critical capital requirements specified in
section 8.34 of the Act. We will notify you in writing of this fact and
the date by which you should be in compliance (if applicable).
(b) Submission of capital restoration plan. Our determination that
you are not meeting your required capital levels may require you to
develop and submit to us, within a specified time period, an acceptable
plan to reach the appropriate capital level(s) by the date required.
Sec. 652.100 Audit of the risk-based capital stress test.
You must have a qualified, independent external auditor review your
implementation of the risk-based capital stress test every 3 years and
submit a copy of the auditor's opinion to us.
Appendix A--Subpart B of Part 652--Risk-Based Capital Stress Test
1.0 Introduction.
2.0 Credit Risk.
2.1 Loss-Frequency and Loss-Severity Models.
2.2 Loan-Seasoning Adjustment.
2.3 Example Calculation of Dollar Loss on One Loan.
2.4 Calculation of Loss Rates for Use in the Stress Test.
3.0 Interest Rate Risk.
3.1 P